Have you seen the new lines? I’m not a fan. Connor McDavid scored 8-13-21 at five-on-five in about 450 minutes with Ty Rattie (3.13 points-per-60) and you’ll never hear me ever doubt 97, but Brendan Perlini-Kailer Yamamoto is a brave choice. Will it work?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers win a trade in the Connor McDavid era?
- DNB: ‘We’re finding ways to lose’
- Lowetide: Midseason review of Oilers reasonable predictions for 2021-22
- DNB: The Oilers aren’t getting a dominant Leon Draisaitl right now
- Lowetide: What to expect from Dylan Holloway in Bakersfield and Edmonton this season
- DNB: Connor McDavid supports Oilers’ pursuit of Evander Kane.
- DNB: Ken Holland speaks
- Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Evander Kane and what would it look like?
- Lowetide: What’s the gap for Oilers between now and the 2016-17 playoff team?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Will this be another lost season?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- DNB: Time for the Oilers to move on from Mikko Koskinen
- Lowetide: If Oilers plan a coaching change, why stop there?
- New DNB: Exploring how the Oilers can get back on track
- Lowetide: Long December has Oilers fans looking for reasons to believe
- Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
PRACTICE LINES AND PAIRINGS
- Perlini-McDavid-Yamamoto
The line has just over one minute together but there are intriguing elements. Perlini is a volume shooter and there’s an extra foot on that fastball, and Yamamoto can retrieve pucks for McDavid. At five-on-five, 97-56 have outscored opponents 16-10 in 242 minutes over the last three years.
- Hyman-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
I’m a fan of these two wingers with 97, and with Draisaitl the trio could be a nightmare for opposition defenses. The line has played three minutes together and is 0-1 goals, but 29-13 is 12-8 goals in 169 minutes (all numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick. Hyman-Draisaitl has been together for just 14:25 but the chemistry should work.
The line shuffle has been made necessary by two things: Exhaustion of 29 and the Nuge injury. Tippett has to back off the big minutes for Draisaitl and the river will flow again.
- Foegele-McLeod-Kassian
The line played 77 minutes and scored 1-3 goals, but Foegele and McLeod are 4-2 goals (five-on-five) in 69 minutes. I quite like this line.
- Shore-Ryan-Sceviour
At five-on-five this season, these three men are under water. Devin Shore (6-7) and Colton Sceviour (6-10) are in the struggling category, and Derek Ryan (7-20) is in the “plays for the California Golden Seals” category. This trio probably gets scrapped for parts during the game. I’d like to see Benson-Sceviour-Marody for 20 games.
- Nurse-Ceci
They’ve played together five-on-five for just 44 minutes, with a 3-1 goal share but an expected goal share of 47 percent. I don’t like the pairing, because neither of them is really a pure shutdown defender. Ceci would be better off on the second or third pair and Nurse has better partners on the roster.
- Keith-Barrie
In 35 minutes five-on-five, they’re 2-0 goals and 76 percent expected goals. That could be ruined in one game but the early results are solid and if Keith can form a solid pairing with Barrie it frees up Bouchard to move to the Nurse duo when the coaching staff is done persecuting the rookies.
- Russell-Bouchard
In 27 minutes together, they’re 3-0, expected goals 56.9. The pairing makes sense stylistically, Russell performs the ‘unsafe at any speed’ defense and Bouchard gets the puck moving north in a quick hurry.
- Koekkoek-Lagesson
Just 11 minutes together, I do think it’s a style match (Koekkoek the puck mover, Lagesson the defender). Interesting notes via the line tool at NST: Lagesson (5-7) and Koekkoek (9-10) have been just slightly negative at five-on-five goal differential. When both men are off the ice? Edmonton’s defense has posted a 57-66 goal differential. This team is 71-83 five-on-five goals (46.10 percent) after being 46-48 (48.94 percent) on December 1. Get. a. goalie!
THE 2022 DRAFT
Don’t panic, I’m not calling the season. I do need to start the process of getting the final 125 list together, so thought it might be an idea to get rolling before the games pick up again.
I’m going to list Craig Button’s top 20 (here) and then their stats and NHLE’s. I’ll post the first 10 and we can chat about what my list might look like.
Shane Wright will go No. 1, but one hopes his boxcars improve. No one is going to catch McDavid’s NHLE in his draft year (67), and maybe Taylor Hall is also out of reach (46). However, Nail Yakupov his 40 in the OHL so Wright has some room to grow.
Logan Cooley played at the WJ’s over Christmas (1, 0-1-1 before the tournament shut down) and has a complete range of skills. Highly regarded, I think he’d need more offense to land in my top-five but there’s plenty of time.
Joakim Kemell is playing pro hockey and getting a regular shift (16:48 a night) in the Liiga, that’s a splendid prospect. Jesse Puljujarv went 50, 13-15-28 in his draft year playing 15:04 a night. Kemell is a fascinating prospect. I don’t think he’ll pass Wright on my list, but he’s the top candidate.
Simon Nevec doesn’t have an NHLE but Brandt Clarke posted 26GP, 5-10-15 in the same league a year (Clarke’s draft season) ago and the scouting reports on Nevec tell us he is a fine skater with great coverage and offensive skills. He could land top-five overall.
Matt Savoie is the most intriguing name 5-10, his offense is outstanding and he plays in a terrific league. If things continue, I’d say he lands in the top five with only Wright, Kemmel and Nevec clearly ahead of him.
Nazar and Geekie are interesting, Lambert is in a pro league but he’s falling down lists and you have to watch that kind of freefall. Some of these pronunciations are going to cause retirements from the broadcast booth.
Button’s list is strong, and he is an excellent scout, so I consider everyone on his list bona fide. Math suggests Savoie is being undervalued here and the team picking at No. 2 has a chance to get the best player.
One other note: The final list for Button (and me) will change because the European kids emerge at late tournaments, as late as April. Oscar Klefbom moved up about 30 spots in the final rankings back in 2011 (as an example). So, this is the start but many miles to go.
LOWDOWN BY LOWETIDE
A busy show on the Lowdown, we get started at 10, TSN1260. Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff and Oilers Nation will join me at 10:20 to talk Oilers and the next step. At 11, we’ll check in with the Montreal Canadiens who have hired Patrice Bergeron’s agent as general manager. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
I do worry about this team’s composure under duress. And that was quite the on-point needle by the flustered Matheson.
Yet I do like that Drai shows that he cares.
I think the onus there is on Matheson to be the bigger man. That’s how you Hall of Fame.
Drai sticks up for his teammates. He defends them fiercely. It’s one of the reasons why he likes Yams on his line. And if anyone goes after Yams you know they’re answering to Drai. I think Drai is pissed at Matty after the Koskinen comments and we’re seeing that in action.
Right or wrong. One thing’s for sure. You can’t say it’s not entertainment. Look at the number of comments devoted to it (including my own).
Largely agree but it was Jonesy who made the horrific comments to Koskinen before the season began.
Are we thinking of different comments? I thought this was Mathesons voice (comments and other articles if you google it think it was Matheson too)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5O8FhOdyww
Almost positive that was Jimmy M.
Matheson made it about him not about subject. Garbage.
There will be a couple columns out by the end of the year that talk about how 97 & 29 may be 1 and 2 for the scoring race, but if they focused on defense, rather then offence the oilers would have made it to the playoffs / past round 1.
Can’t wait. Drai and McD are going to have serious “upper body” injuries from carrying the weight of the top 9 playing 25 + mins a night.
Honestly – This blog and team is such a wonder for follow, for good reasons, even though the last ~11 years for the team haven’t been “fruitful”.
I started following this blog while doing my degree the year before they obtained McDavid – and the ride has been fascinating. The amount of bloggers (Woodguy55, WheatNOil, Sunil, Jonathan Willis) that have all provided so much information, and articles, to ensure that I always had something to read is a pleasure. It all started from Lowetides for me.
I hope the players of the Oilers teams have success with their careers – It is tough to see such good players lose out a majority of their career to insufficient management practices / misplays.
On the other hand, if the Oilers continue being 1st round / just out of the playoffs, the passion from the “blogosphere” will still bring me back. I love the reading, the stats, the views and data for reference.
Sometimes maybe they shouldn’t play that much and, yes, sometimes, they should take a bit of responsibility for a loss.
I thought Drai played well on Saturday and McDavid was OK but, at the end of the day, they played over 19 minutes at 5 on 5 together and were 0-0 goals (McDavid was 0-1 goals overall at 5 on 5).
They played well but that simply isn’t good enough – playing together against a 30th place team, they need to find a way to score a couple of goals – they are $21MM of the cap on the ice together – they need to win those minutes.
The Oilers were 3-2 goals at 5 on 5 with those two off the ice.
I want to find the twitter link, but Bob Stauffer and Spector had a good back and forth on Oilers Now, pretty funny.
The lack of due respect seems to be what pissed Matheson off.
I think Draisaitl is a flawed human being, like all of us, with an ego too big, but man how he handled that I thought was all right. He could have done it better, just by tossing the comments off without expressing his displeasure and passive aggressively saying something to make Matheson look like he didn’t make sense, but considering it was in the moment I think he handled himself pretty good. Anyone defending Matheson, like Mark Spector over at Sportsnet did, I think is really on the losing side of this.
Hockey culture has created an environment of boring “safe” answers and somehow people are surprised that they get boring answers.
could you imagine the outrage from the Old boys club if a player just threw his coach GM and teammates under the bus like they do in NFL.
Tullio at 1+1 so far as Oshawa leads 3-0 late in the second.
Following a Kingston turnover, Tullio bangs home a cross-ice feed for his 16th goal of the season:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Oshawa_Generals/status/1483595413399740429?cxt=HHwWmoC54eCK5ZYpAAAA
After Kingston draws within 1, Tullio tallies again, this time into an empty cage for the 4-2 win. Also named 1st star.
He has been on a tear lately–counting tonight, he has 9 goals and 7 assists in his last 7 games.
He has now vaulted into a tie for 6th in OHL points.
Tarkus, I really appreciate your Tullio updates! Thank you. Have you come across any recent scouting reports on his style of play? I’m curious what we should expect of him in Bakersfield next season.
Haven’t seen any recent reports, though I imagine Scott Wheeler will have a lot to say about him when he gets to the Oilers in his prospect pool rankings at The Athletic. Wheeler has been bullish on him for a while now.
McDavid, and now Leon, in recent days, have been the subject of varying degrees of scorn. That scorn has had nothing to do with their own on-ice performance, but rather boils down to failures in procurement and Holland’s inability to substantively improve the roster over the summer.
The MSM are full-out bonkers if they cannot parse what ails this team — it is managerial incompetence. Full stop. You don’t need access to know that.
Drai’s assessment of everything needing to be better is bang-on — simply put, the roster is not good enough. Leon wasn’t pissy at all; he was just telling the truth.
And had Matheson framed his question properly he may have garnered some insight into what the players were thinking but opted instead for a lazy, tired trope designed to provoke.
I mean the question started out pretty mundane. Pretty easy for leon to answer. Just toss out some cliches and move on.
And likewise the reporter (Matheson?) Didn’t have to get pissy back. Give a guy a break.
One should assume Matheson was actually attempting to get some useful information that was of interest to his readers…that’s his job.
But instead opted to throw out a question that would with elicit those cliches or provoke a reaction.
Well, he got a reaction but not the one he was expecting and tried to turn the tables on Leon.
HH, I agree with you. I’m happy with Leon’s response and his pissy answer. That means he cares. Besides Matheson asked a stupid question. Leon isn’t going to throw a teammate or one of the lines under the bus. It was well played and Matheson got what he deserves. Especially if he keeps asking the same questions over and over. It is better than always hearing the same clichés
One should actually assume that Mattheson had a story/narrative he wanted to write and he was asking questions looking for certain answers.
He does this every single day there is media access.
You have no idea if this is true.
LOL – of course I do – I listen to his questions to the players available each day and the coach and I read his piece later that day.
No player is above criticism
I absolutely don’t think they are the problem
But they both still have to grow and be more mature players
There are plenty of flaws and inconsistencies in their games at the heart of the game. They should not be out-scored 5v5 at this point
PP points are points, but are fleeting as we see now, and aren’t bankable playoff points as we know
If they want what they say they want it starts with them, they are the leaders by default. Nurse is the leader on D
https://mobile.twitter.com/black_franchise/status/1483588280582959104
Mark has no place being in the Oilers community imo, it’s not unbiased reporting when it’s just done strictly to sell drama. This style of team coverage should be shot dead and forgotten.
Mark makes no friends here. Leon was not happy. Jim needs to read the man better. Let it go.
I quite liked Bob’s response. But man marks got a burr in his bonnet.
Even in a smear based click bait world the talent still drives everything
Spector and Matty won’t get a leg up on Connor or Leon. And risk getting marginalized in the most important ways, cut off from any hope of personal professional relationships
Matheson clearly does not have a drai sense of humour.
*slow clap*
Jim Matheson, useless.
One thing I’ve always found weird and pretty bothering tbh with the NHL in general and especially the Oilers is that media asks much tougher and aggressive questions to the players than the coaches, GM and higher ups.
To me that’s completely backwards and cowardly.
If this was an italian soccer team then Tippett would feel like he was standing in front of a firing squad every media avail but if you’re coaching the Oilers you’re getting questions seemingly designed for you to deflect the blame on factors out of your control.
Not to mention how Holland’s avail the other week would have sounded in that setting.
Team executives control access to the team and, from personal experience, I can tell you the Oilers have never been shy about exercising it
This is exactly right.
Look at the NFL. There’s a whole industry of national media that have no hesitation to take on the biggest of the big. Jerry Jones is just getting ripped apart in the media, along with his coach Mike McCarthy for failing to advance as the 2 seed.
Guys like Stephen A. Smith, Mike Greenberg, Craig Wilbon and Tony Kornhuiser call out anything they want because they don’t need your
precious access.
Meanwhile Rishaug and Spector and matheson and Stauffer have no choice but to toe the company line.
Even guys that work nationally like Friedman are still beholden to their bosses at Rogers; partners with the NHL.
There’s a place for a Friedman to become a national independent icon above it all like Greeny but someone would have to invest in him.
Your last sentence explains everything.
It’s unfortunate that Ray Ferraro was lured away…he has never been shy about expressing his honest opinion.
As a card carrying member of the MSM thanks to his daily radio show, I’m sure LT will be thrilled to hear that his profession is in the words of one poster today, “a step or two above prostitution.”
How did #fakenews function so effectively as the tip of the propaganda spear for today’s post truth landscape? Today’s thread has given me some clarity. Hatred of the media is endemic now it would seem.
With so little respect paid to the fifth estate, I would imagine it’s the golden age for those who wish to insult or antagonize them. Fill your boots. Why should real life be any different than Twitter?
Odd take
I think things comes down to a player sick of a reporter who is well past his prime and continues to ask stupid/baiting questions. Matheson isn’t liked by many of the players full stop.
His idiotic comments to Koskinen before the season even started are a prime example.
https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-koskinen-told-fans-want-different-goalie/
I believe you are conflating those with “access” via press pass with those without.
MSM is anyone who works for institutional media. LT and Matheson are both part of that club. The fact that Matheson is a reporter and LT is an on-air host doesn’t change that. Being with TSN, I’m sure his mothercorp would have the ability to get LT credentialed if that’s something they wanted to pursue.
It makes a huge difference.
One is a radio host covering the Oilers…the other is an accredited reporter and columnist whose job is explicitly to provide balanced coverage.
It should make a difference. But in this case the man who is not an official reporter has the balanced, well reason well written views.
Sure, you can define it that way but, for me, in no way do I equate what Jim Mathesson does with what LT does.
As a former long standing member of the MSM I can’t agree.
LT is not a card carrying member of the MSM…he’s an Oiler fan with a radio show who does not have access to the team and I’m pretty sure his audience understands the distinction.
I could go on an exhaustive rant about where and when the MSM lost its way but will just say it began and will end with audience fragmentation spurred by cable TV and the Internet.
Print and broadcast news executives were decades late in recognizing a revolutionary change was underway but their hand was forced by plummeting revenue and, after laying off most of their best and expensive journalists, abandoned the key principles of balance and fairness allowing mediocrity and various forms of ambulance chasing to supplant any attempts to seek the truth in pursuit of clicks and outraged listeners and viewers.
Twitter is not the cause of this, it’s merely a reflection of the intentional polarizing of public discourse in order to hang on to the remnants of shrinking audiences.
What we we saw today was reminiscent of CNNs White House correspondent shrieking at the President of the United States in order to provoke an extreme reaction.
It’s quite sad actually.
Your second last paragraph would only make sense if Matheson felt threatened by this sea change. Why would he? He’s one of the rare survivors. He’s made his bones. And in his day, I’m sure he’s seen Oiler leadership that shames the childish display that Leon put on today.
Im sure his pension is fully vested but that doesn’t mean he’s immune from the imperative to provoke.
I also thought Leon’s response was out of line but Matheson asked an open ended question (never a good idea) unless you’re prepared for whatever you get.
I know its media’s job to speak facts, truth whatever. But surely there has to be relationship between those you work with everyday, even if it is a player media relationship. A respect for the player at the least?
I enjoyed this insight.
Thank you for sharing.
Wait until I tell you how the invention of the automatic garage door opener destroyed Western society. 🙂
I wrote a speech about that very thing in Grade 7–1978–I shit thee not. Won a bunch of shit with it too.
Me as well and no goal posts were moved in the process 🙂
This is absolutely true about print and broadcast media in general. Advertising revenue has totally crashed and it forces legacy media to chase subscribers by feeding into the bias of their particular audience.
Not sure this applies to Matheson though. He’s got his pension and is past retirement. He doesn’t need clickbait and I doubt he chases it. He’s just meh at his job.
Odd take indeed. I don’t count LT as a member of the sad MSM.
He actually does research, listens to half wits like me, and we have interactions that I enjoy.
Maybe he has access like others, but he sure doesn’t act like it.
Mathieson was way out of line and couldn’t take Draisaitl calling him out on it. If he was looking for a fight, he got one, and he got his ass kicked.
LT is no more MSM than Bruce McCurdy who is one of the premiere analysts of the state of the Oilers.
Objectivity is a blessing.
Loved your take on MSM demise but I don’t agree on Twitter. Anonymity and algorithms amplifying fringe positions that drive emotional response isn’t merely a reflection of the current state of our civilization. These platforms hack the human condition and amplify the worst in us.
What happens is the legacy media takes its marching orders from Twitter. What they write is meant to pander to their Twitter followers, who retweet the article and hopefully subscribe. It’s a twisted relationship base solely on chasing shrinking profits.
Former New York Times editor Bari Weiss quit, saying “Twitter has become its ultimate editor.”
I’ve never been more proud to have a Leon sweater. Matheson was predatory there and Leon didn’t bite. His response left a bit to be desired but he didn’t bite and that’s all that matters to me. He’s pissed and he should be.
Yes. Pissed NOT Pissy…
And I might add, deservedly (pissed).
Don’t know if his response was a cause for pride. The question was annoying. It seems like the questions are predictable, I would have a few talking points to throw the reporters and throw out more or less the same info regardless of the question.
I get Matheson asking annoying and bullying questions, especially about goaltending and wanting to stir the pot. Maybe fighting back has some value to the team like in a game.
So I’m reading around and see this at a msm sports site, about the new Habs GM:
“Oh yeah, and he’s a shark. Did you see the Darnell Nurse deal?”
Life as an Oiler fan is a life of being unendingly underwhelmed it seems.
Holland is too sentimental it seems. At best. Not even Nurse will be happy if his monster payday means not winning enough shiny things.
I’m not down on Nurse per se, but he signed at top top dollar, and Connor didn’t, so he gets a big down arrow from this conch.
You can talk about market, but the one who got 100% of what he wanted was Hughes. Oiler GMs get no quarter for their boss. Not even a nickel discount for a guy they drafted (the most loyal) that ‘loves’ the team.
Nurse better find a another new level to not underwhelm us. He doesn’t have the consistency still that the top D need to have. None are perfect, scoring isn’t the main thing that I mean.
The Oilers kept offering Nurse short term prove it deals at near the market rates, and Nurse was fine with that. Nurse was willing to bet on himself rather than ask for or demand a long term deal.
The trouble with delaying on a long term deal on a core player, is that the market might reset, and the market for D reset right when Nurse became a UFA.
The Oilers, Chiarelli and Holland, were wrong to go short term on Nurse, when they could have locked him up before Hamilton and Jones and Makar and Heiskanen reset the market.
The Oilers had a chance to “put a ring on it” four years ago, but they waited four years to ask the question. Horrible cap management.
If the previous GMs hooped the deal trade him
You have to be convinced that the cap would bring elite play
Nurse has never been an elite D. Saying that liking the player, but cap overspending isn’t an option as it stands
If you want a realistic shot at contending over time
But I think scoring does matter.
Nurse got paid to some degree based on his boxcars last season.
It seems no one bothered to check his unsustainable shooting percentage.
Nurse’s shooting percentage was almost identical to that of Jacob Cychrun, lauded by most as a potential saviour.
Chycrun did not get a contract north of $9 million based on those numbers…Nurse did.
Nice try though.
Arizona locked Chychrun up after his entry level deal. The Oilers failed to lock Nurse up not once, but twice.
3 wrongs don’t make a right.
What in the world does that have to do with discussing regression similarities and Chychrun being over-rated based on his goal scoring last season?
Answer: Nothing.
Answer: Everything.
Chychrun’s shooting percentage had ZERO to do with the massive overpayment to Nurse.
ZERO.
and my response had nothing to do with Nurse’s contract.
I wasn’t responding to you and, as you do, you need to insert yourself in to the conversation with a post that has nothing to do with the one you ar responding to.
Shooting % is my point exactly
Not too hard an argument to make as a GM
Really there is no choice as a GM in a capped league to keep every contract fair but not top dollar
The precedent setting deal in Chicago hasn’t saved the day either
Add to that Holland made that possible eating Keith’s cap
Really that is about as bad as it gets. The Oilers should have acquired assets to eat it, as good GMs get, not that it would have ever been a smart idea for a player that old, and I am a fan of Keith
Agree completely.
When McDavid signed, he signed for the highest cap hit in the league by apx $2.5MM.
Sure, could he have held out for the max contract? Sure, but, of course, that would have been a totally unreasonable cap hit in the context of the league’s salary structure at the time and a total dick move cratering his team’s chances.
I know this is a vast minority opinion but McDavid got paid in full vis-a-vis reasonableness.
Nurse isn’t a generational player
He’s not even established himself as considered a top 5 D, nobody talks Norris
And if that’s not in the convo league top echelon salary should off the table
Also that Connor didn’t sign at top dollar because it would be unreasonable is a great negotiating position IMO
I was simply responding to the statement that McDavid didn’t take top dollar – nothing to do with Nurse.
https://twitter.com/ryan_batty/status/1483539913727348739?s=20
Worth watching the whole exchange between Matty and Drai, it makes Matty look even worse in the end, I think.
Some questions designed to get Drai throwing someone under the bus.
The other fun stuff that happened is a fake Matty Twitter account posted a hilariously sanctimonious “thanks for having my back, fellow reporters” tweet and of course, Simmons and Spector (who else?!?!) approve the message and respond.
The question from Matheson was legit, but so very very weak. Hey, why do you suck? As a reporter, you should be ashamed to ask such obtuse question. It’s like a parody of what a reporter should ask. Good to see Drai push back because the follow up by Matheson was pathetic.
Matheson. “Would you like to expand on that?”
Draisaitl. “No. You can do that. You know everything.”
The “You know everything” comment was rather petulant, but otherwise I have no problem with what Drai said.
Matheson is on the Barry Fraser Rest-on-Your-Laurels program.
Leon Draisaitl pulls the old Glen Sather pick a fight to distract the baying masses trick.
True Leadership
The fact he is able to do it against the same fools that Sather did!
Generational talent level stuff
Or a sad indictment that nothing ever changes.
Tip’s media avail was a solid listen today in my opinion. A couple of things:
1) Perlini left practice but it didn’t sound like it was anything to worry about.
2) Asked about Holloway as he was supposed to see the doctor today – from the sounds of it, I think he’s cleared on the wrist but he’s still in protocol (as is Turris)
3) Went in to quite a bit of detail on the PK and some structural mistakes they’ve made (and gave examples). Also mentioned the slot shots and cross-ice passes and how they are still doing very good via the SportLogiq numbers. It was notable. I’m not sure management looks at the type of stuff but I’m confident that Tippett looks at way more “numbers” than the general Oiler fan thinks of.
Thanks OP. Tipp’s regard for advanced stats is appreciated. It’s one good reason, for folks who want change, to move him to management, bumping Kenny to Bobby Nich’s role. Promote everyone from within – bring up Woody and Manson for the duration of the season.
Marc Methot
@MarcMethot3
· 1h
It’s not the players job to address why a team is struggling. He can certainly give an opinion but he isn’t obligated to do so. That’s the general manager and head coach’s job. Following it up with a question like “why are you so pissy?”…Leon handled it with class. twitter.com/timandfriends/…
I wonder what the response would have been if Leon had countered with a question about why the MSM has lost relevance and is on the verge of collapse.
No kidding. The Edmonton MSM has been awful this year. I still cannot believe the way Matheson spoke to Mikko earlier this year. Complete lack of respect. Completely out of touch.
If it is true that Edmonton is a hard sell for players look no further than this sort of bullshit.
Note: I did not think the original question was that egregious but the follow-up was a joke.
Matheson should have retired 15 years ago. Spector goes into the whole, he’s a HHOF member and deserves some respect bit on Stauffer’s show. Stauffer actually pushed back on that saying it had no relevance and him even being in the HHOF had more to do with the team he was covering than anything else.
Matheson is only a HHOF reporter because he happened to be the beat writer for the Journal for hockey when the Oilers entered the NHL. If the Oilers had never won 5 Cups, Matheson would never have been in the HHOF. He thought he hit a home run, but he was merely standing on 3rd base when Gretzky hit the home run.
I don’t mind the initial question from Jim, nor the response from Drai. The “Why are you so pissy” comment is ridiculously unprofessional.
Yep.
I’m finding myself agreeing with Harpers Hair more lately. WTF!??! Lol.
I liked Leon’s response. He’s tired of this shit. The team will love him for it and that’s all I’d be worried about. Plus the media is only talking about Draisaitl right now, not the rest of the team.
Also, for those saying Draisaitl was disrespectful, well Jim isn’t exactly a model for decorum and class. He picks at strange meaningless shot sometimes, like Puljujarvi shouldn’t have chosen #98 because it was disrespectful to Gretzky. What a joke.
Matheson said in a recent article about Draisaitl showing his frustration. Well, he showed it to him in person in the avail.
Leon Belichek.
The answer Leon gave to Matty is the same one Belichek gives to reporters essentially every press conference.
If you want a better answer, ask a better question.
I suspect Jim Methieson has the article written before he goes into those passers. The brainless and rambling sports-verbal he normally receives for his inane questions are plug and play and help him get to his word count. Leon triggered him hard by not granting him his filler.
I just posted exactly this in another thread. Jim goes in to each day’s media avail with a story in mind that he wants to write and asks targeted questions looking for specific type of quotes to fit therein.
Steve Carlton was the first, but Belichik is definitely THE guy that popularized the notion that you can just stonewall the press.
There’s no better question you can ask with these guys. Their agenda is not to cultivate a relationship with the media or respect the fact that they have a job to do as well. Their agenda is to say as little as possible without outright telling the press to get bent.
Someone needs to remind these rude jerks that they’re in the entertainment business imo.
“they’re in the entertainment business” but at the same time if any athlete shows attitude or personality they’re branded distractions and part of the problem.
There’s no winning.
Someone needs to remind these (specific) reporters that the draw is the players not them.
Good for Jim Matheson. He’s nearly at the finish line now. Why take shit from entitled athletes?
Draisaitl and McDavid have always been lousy with the media. When the teams’s winning, they make it clear with their short generic answers that they regard their media avails as loathsome chores. When the team’s losing, they go from curt to surly and condescending.
Yep, the questions get tougher and more aggravating when you’re losing. Doesn’t mean you have to act like a loser.
Gretzky and Crosby are both terrific with the media. Both are also tremendous leaders. Maybe nice guys actually finish first?
“What do you want me to say, Jim?”
Nobody talks to me like Jim did to Leon except my father, and he’s dead now and I’m a grown adult. The way he threw that pissy question back he’s lucky Leon is as mature as he is.
If not for the fact that he’s a feeble old fart he’d have earned a smack talking like that.
Classless, cowardly, and completely uncalled for. It’s time for him and Spector to retire.
The media constantly asks the same questions over and over or ones that only have one specific answer. Lets not pretend Matheson is any saint. Why should these athletes take any shit either?
Shit like “Are you frustrated your team is on a massive losing streak?”. Yeah of course they are, how is that reporting? Gretzky and Crosby have both been on teams with massive success and no 80 year old Jim. Media loves to say fans are tough on the players then constantly shit on the players in the next scrum.
This isnt Mathesons first time and wont be his last. Look at his questioning to Kosk at the beginning of the season if you want.
Jim, why did you have to make the pissy comment? That was crossing the line. That was provocation. You got the response that you desire. Teammates stick together and you asked other out of line questions. Leon was ready for you.
Very unprofessional of Jim Matheson.
Leon has every right to disregard Matheson’s obtuse line of questioning.
C’mon now, no need to bring math into this equat…err, I mean relationship.
Deleted
What did you lete?
I’m thinking Leon isn’t a big fan of Jim Mattheson and, it appears, the feeling is mutual….. wow!
Not picking sides at all, but if I’m being honest, I’m happy to see some fire and emotion from somebody. Now I want to see it on the ice. Drai does have a mouth on him. It’s not the first time he’s answered questions sarcastically.
Im picking sides. Matheson was unprofessional and a poor reporter HHOF spot be damned. Most Oilers have a similar look answering Matheson questions. Its not because they’re hard hitting questions that require reflection its because they’re questions that everyone already knows the answer to, or has already been asked, or are just meant to stir the pot/get a sound clip.
Its incredible the media holds the players to such a high standard but is pretty tame in questioning management/coaches. If you’re going to press the team press the team not just the players.
Matheson asked a question trying to bait Drai into an answer he can springboard off. Lets not pretend an answer about a specific part of the game wont get twisted. Draisatl answered the question. Matheson asking why Draisatl is so pissy and pushing again with a second comment.
In general what is the deal with these questions being asked they’re brutal. If you dont want a sarcastic answer dont ask a stupid question.
100% agree. And now guys like Spector are circling the wagons for poor old Past Due Date Matty.
Nugent-Bowman was the only guy to remotely challenge Holland.
No such thing as a stupid question…only stupid answers.
You can believe that if you want. I dont.
Thank you for allowing me that basic freedom. I genuinely hope that not asking questions doesn’t bite you in the butt. I mean, what could go wrong?
Did I say something to offend you? I basically just said agree to disagree. I am obviously not giving you any right or freedom.
The double negative is always fun so maybe I am misunderstanding. I do ask questions? I ask stupid questions sometimes but im also not a journalist pretending they arent stupid.
Lol. Not offended at all. Let me explain myself better.
I’m definitely not a fan of Mathesson. Not one bit. Never have been..and in fact get a bit fired up about the questions he asks.
I get your point about stupid questions. Always did, and even though embarrassing sometimes, I’ve always found that it’s better to ask, even if it’s just for self assurance. (Reinforce what the mind is thinking) This alone does not let Mathesson off the hook for asking the “silly” question, but Leon does not get off the hook for a smart ass reply either. In my eyes there are no stupid questions…
I respect your beliefs. Party on!
Agh I see, thought I might be misreading it my bad! Yeah in 99% of normal day to day life I’d agree. This is my main exception. I guess I could explain it better, any question asked to actually seek an answer and learn no matter how “simple” is not stupid. I feel like todays question wasnt one of those though.
Same here, cheers!
I’d agree no such thing as a stupid question. If you’re actually seeking information.
This isn’t that. It’s hack job bullshit and we should call it out, so it maybe stops happening one day.
Matheson just wants an answer that can be click bait material. Spent many many years with the beat writers as the only line to go to on a daily basis. He should be out in the pasture with the rest of the old fellas. Get a few free coffees on coffee row for telling a couple of stories. We remember when Matheson had some respect.
Leon answered the question legitimately and Matheson lowered the exchange into the sewer with his “Pissy” reply.
This is what Jim M. does daily – he has a piece that he wants to write and he asks each of the players and Tip questions looking for quotes to fit in to his targeted piece.
You gotta watch this:
Tim and Friends
@timandfriends
Watch Leon Draisaitl get into it with HHOF reporter Jim Matheson https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f62c.svg
#Oilers
Better link:
https://twitter.com/timandfriends/status/1483524422162173958?s=20
If I was Drai, I would give it the old Bobby Knight approach. “Well Jim, when I’m sitting here, that’s your domain and when I’m on that white slippery stuff that’s ice and that’s my domain. Just trying to help you out in your chosen profession, which is just a step or two above prostitution!”
MSM are horrid, absolutely horrid.
What can Holland do this week to help the Oilers?
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/544818
Nice, better
I don’t know why Buffalo would eat Koski’s dollars for a 5th though
I think they’re running an ECHL goalie right now due to injuries.
That would motivate
Pretty sure Dallas won’t move Holtby while they’re in a playoff race.
I like the moves plus or minus Holtby. Not sure which version we’d be getting on our team.
Haven’t posted on CF for quite a while, what a cesspool.
Retire. But he’ll probably hire Babcock as a consultant.
Go back to the past. He was, apparently, a good pro scout. Let him go watch some hockey games and sip some bad coffee/beer. Have him report back to Lowetide so we can tear apart his wisdom. At least he won’t have control of the bridge.
Looking at potential goalie targets… the least is very, very weak right now unfortunately:
Lets take a look at the Goalies on teams who are out of it:
Buffalo:
A death of goaltenders and no good options at the moment. Only two goalies would be an upgrade on Koskinen right now, and that would be tokarski (.903), and Lukkonen (.917), but Lukkonen is written into the Sabres future plans. Tokarski is barely an upgrade and injured atm if I am remembering correctly. Could be good for a sideways move, but doubtful.
Ottawa:
The Senators are in a similiar position. Murray could be had for nothing, but he is $6million and not even an upgrade on Koskinen stat wise. He could be a decent option in the future as a buy low free agent, but at this moment the contract is too dear. Ironically Anton Forsberg has a .909 and could be a slight upgrade on Koskinen, but I doubt that they would take his contract on, and they might not be willing to part with their one decent goalie.
Montreal:
Price is a clear upgrade, but the contract is insane, and he hasn’t played this year, and might not at all. He is a buy low candidate in the summer if they buy him out, but not for this season. Montembault and Allen are flirting with .900 save%, but Allen is an option for a stopgap, he is known to be great in the room and has a history as a strong goalie. Are you willing to take on his 2.8 Million this year and next? He might be the one goalie so far who fits the bill as a buy low stopgap. Maybe the MTL defense and team has crumbled to the point his stats have taken a dive due to them? This move has risk.
Seattle:
The toughest to handicap. Driedger had excellent stats with Florida, signed a long contract and has severely regressed in Seattle. So has Grubauer. Are you willing to bet that his 25 games in Florida were real, or his 11 in Seattle. Small sample sizes abound and he has two more years at $3.5 territory. This is either the steal of the century or a Koskinen-sized miscue. The risk is tremendous unless money is going back, and it won’t be. Grubauer has a longer track record and good experience with an offensive team, but his NTC and the fact he just signed a 6 year contract make this a non-starter.
Arizona:
Wedgwood hasn’t been good, Hutton has been atrocious, Vejmelka has been decent. a .909 for him, and they’d be willing to trade. Its a gamble, his NHL career is only 22 games long, and he is once again in Koskinen territory when it comes to track record before his big contract. Not sure what it costs, but he could be an option.
We’ll also glance at NJD and Philly, who are fairly far back from the playoffs.
So in summary, here is my wishlist in terms of acquisition cost, contract cost and potential upgrade:
I would pay the ransom for Ullmark if possible, he represents a real solution, cheap, for several seasons. If its a 1st next year and a prospect, so be it.
Vejmelka has some upside, I saw him good against the Oilers and the acquisition cost should be low.
Fucale is high risk, high reward, but he has never failed when called upon. Might be a solution for a long time or he could crater, but we’ll never know unless we try it out, and the acquisition cost should be low.
The others are decent upgrades, but between the cost to acquire or their middling stats, they are not likely to be good upgrades on what the Oilers have. I would also still like to give Skinner the keys for a stretch of games before we move on and acquire a goalie.
HH had mentioned Vejmelka yesterday. I also saw him good against the Oilers. That would be an interesting player to dig into his quality starts etc.
Great post BTW. Thanks for this!
BTW, every time I read the name “Tokarski,” I hear “Dustin Tokarski says oh no you don’t.” It’s literally the worst ear worm ever.
Thank you very much!
He would be interesting, and wouldn’t mind to test drive him, but I am wary of him like I was of Koskinen and Driedger. The sample size is so small we just don’t know what they will be and if hes asking for a big contract, I run the other way regardless.
Nice post. At this point, acquiring a bad goalie is better than running Koskinen, as long as we can swap Koskinnen in the transaction. Or possibly acquiring a good AHL goalie. We know Koskinnen is not the answer.
Well in fairness I don’t think thats true. Acquiring Korpisalo for example would be a terrible transaction, since he has performed worse with a longer, expensive contract to consider.
I think the key is identifying the next goalie to come up. To find “Talbot on the Rangers” or the “Dubnyk out of the league” goalie. Or the “Jack Campbell”. Thats why I am advocating for Fucale to test drive, but thats not a sure thing. Vejmelka might be that player, but its unclear…
The biggest issue to me right now is that most teams will keep their “good backups” over other years. Considering a common cold mistaken for COVID could potentially isolate your starter for a game (even an important one), the risk is high to need 2 or 3 strong goalies for the playoffs. So contending teams are hanging on to their goalies even when they have too many.
For example, in a normal year the Bruins might trade Ullmark to clear cap space to upgrade somewhere else, but all it takes is a Rask injury and a Swayman positive test to thrust Ullmark into the starter role as the only goalie.
Other years, the Forsberg’s, the Lyons, the Husso’s and Lindgren’s might be available for a trade, but this year they’re too important to a team’s fortunes.
Braden Holtby is enjoying something of a resurgence in Dallas this year, always raises his game in the playoffs and has a Cup ring. Seems like the kind of goalie Holland would go after.
He certainly is, and while I haven’t seen him play this year, he would be a good pickup. I didn’t include him since I don’t think the Stars would let him go. Hes played 17 games to Oettinger’s 13 and both have similiar stats. I don’t think they’re keen on giving the 23 year old the keys to the car yet and might keep Holtby. They’re 6 points back of the wildcard spot with 5 games in hand, and currently tied with the Oilers in points and wins.
If they decide to sell and Holtby is available I grab him immediately, but I don’t think he will be.
They have Khudobin too.
He’s been awful.
Terrible. And you’re right in the above section, I doubt they trade their starter in a playoff race, and they won’t be able to give away Khudobin.
Nice review, appreciated.
What about Vanacek out of Washington? He was selected by Seattle in the draft and then flipped back to Washington for a semi decent pick if I recall correctly.
I put Vanacek in the “Good backup on a good team” category.
Him and Samsonov have played almost equal games and Vanacek has outperformed him, but the Caps are in the tail end of their cup window, and in order to win they will likely use both of their capable goalies, especially since their 3rd goalie is a largely untested Fucale. In other words, a great pickup, but I don’t think he’s available.
This is awesome. Thanks for posting this. I’d prefer to see if someone can take the Koskinen dollars and then pull a trade for an actual NHL goalie. Maybe a three way deal?
Impressive post!
I was going through a similar mental exercise (I go through this every off-season and Forsberg came through to me as a target the previous season; I didn’t do this, this past year – Dreidger was my clear target, nice “try” Kenny ☹️). Recently Ken Appleby was the low-cost/potential high-reward goalie that I identified as a target for the #3 spot, but then again I ain’t no witch doctor.
Thanks for you work and you opinions on this. I don’t see many games with other teams so really appreciate intel on the old farts and the newcomers.
Who was it the permanently damaged Manson’s voice box? Sergio Momesso, is that right?
Yes. 1992. Sergio Momesso.
Lagesson on waivers.
I presume Russell is ready for Thursday – the PK is happy, Alan Walsh is not, well, unless he gets claimed, then Walsh is very happy.
What are we thinking, about 24 hours to the Evander Kane signing?
I sure hope so.
I sure hope the league doesn’t add a lengthy games suspension on top of the contract termination.
The contract termination is the “punishment” for breaking breaking AHL covid-protocol and his SPC – that was due to his travels to Vancouver. There should be no need to double dip with a games played suspension, in my opinion.
There’s still the grievance that the PA has filed, though it doesn’t have any impact on Kane’s availability. But I suspect the Sharks and Kane will have to agree to a buy-out amount which would go on the Sharks salary cap.
The Sharks can’t unilaterally decide to terminate Kane’s contract and escape the salary cap implications. If they couldn’t do that with the fake vax papers, it’s unlikely they could do that now.
Yes, that is all true but, at the same time, the league already rules that the contract could be terminated due to the recent protocol and contract breaches.
That is being grieved by the NHLPA and will almost certainly end up in a settlement of some sort that will indeed provide Kane with some compensation and the Sharks with a cap hit.
With that said, the league has terminated the contract, end stop, in their opinion. An arbitrator may award an amount to Kane going forward but that potential future monetary award should not be part of the mitigate that fact that, as of now, Kane has been punished for his actions and anything additional is really double dipping.
Lagesson on waivers
Interesting interview with Barrie on Stauffer. Barrie said they need to play more physical and it is no fun playing teams that have that physical element. No shit Sherlock!
Wow. 30+ games into the season and this is his observation. I think this explains why we are so soft to play against. This is damning.
Physicality is not part of Barrie’s game, never has been.
Barrie and, in particular, Keith, have been the two best d-men over the last while. Nurse is in there but he’s been in and out with injury and Covid and has a higher expectation.
Both Barrie and Keith have been playing well, neither are physical players although, of course, Keith can be filthy at times.
Bring on same Evander Kane and, shit, maybe in a bit, some vaccinated Archibald.
Imagine subbing Kane and Archie for Shore and Sceviour from the lineup against the Sens?
For sure…physicality is not part of Barrie’s game. It’s not part of Bouchard game, Mcleods game, Keith’s game, Cecil’s game, Bison Kings game, Nuges game, Mcdavids game, Turris game, Laggessons game, Shores game etc etc etc. The entire team does not work hard enough at being physical and are soft as Purex. Nurse, Kassian, Hyman, have all been soft as well. Kane and Archibald would be fine adds, but if they play as soft as the rest of the team what difference would it make? There has to be a real and consistent effort by ALL to be more physical and harder to play against.
It’s all on the Coach players are going through the motions trying not to make mistakes and be out of position. Our forecheck is so weak the opposition D doesn’t even work up a sweat. If Holland won’t fire Tippett then Holland needs to be shown the door as well.
Coaching in Sports is just weird.
At some point teams decide their coach is a loser and fire his ass.
Then they go to the coaches pool that is full of losers that have been fired from other teams and start sifting through them looking for something good.
Current methodology is that you need to find a coach in the losers pool that previously won the Cup then got fired for not repeating the success, making them a cup winning loser with extra cachet.
Meanwhile the loser that you fired gets picked up as the solution for some other team.
Prospective new head coaches mentor with an existing coach with a good track record but one can never be sure how the Assistant will do on their own.
Going the unknown route is fraught with peril and the Oil have been burned for trying to think outside the box as well.
Right. Eakins was the right move, at the wrong time.
Eakins was the wrong person, and always will be the wrong person.
To me coaches have to check these boxes:
X’s and Os that match the areas of strengths of your players ( rather than coaching all players in the exact same way)
Managing assistant coaches appropriately (I never hear about this, but that woody comment on manson is a bit of light on that)
Managing players. I think this may be most important? And is tied to my first idea)
But what do I know. Can you guys tell ME what is important in a coach?
I would add adaptability
Things change, and those that don’t stale date
Even within a series it is very helpful, in game as well to a degree
Same for all endeavours. I visited an old friend at Christmas, he was asking questions about my business. My gig has changed a lot over the last few years, and I told him the person who changed the most was me.
I had to be the most flexible to allow the things I brought in that accelerated things to do what they were intended to.
My industry is also changing over time and that again means I have to also allow that to happen in the business, to stay in a growth pattern.
If not then we would start to lose ground in the key directions things are going. We would flatten and eventually trend down, become vulnerable.
I don’t like a lot of it, based on the industry and new people I brought in to accommodate the new trend in direction, and how they do things, but times change.
Coaches have to be like that. What they ‘should’ do depends on how the other teams play, and who the GM gives him to use. What the GM ‘should’ do is based on what his competitors are doing – and do it better than them. Including using stats to better inform and reduce fails in assessments and contracts.
This is my favourite site I use as a tool for developing basic tactics and strategies.
https://thecoachessite.com/simplifying-game-ice-hockey/
The biggest single advice I could give any Coach is to keep yourself open to adapt new concepts, and don’t be stubborn on things that worked in the past.
Just from my experiences of trial and error, and mostly error.
A) The ability to teach a wide variety of skills from the five basic technical skills of the game, to individual tactics, to team tactics, and in-game strategies is key. Add to that, the ability to teach it to different levels of cognition and differing personalities, and varying skill levels.
B) Bench Management- The way I used to mange my bench was through minutes. I used a method taught by Mike Keenan and reinforced by Mike Johnston (former Canucks asst). Hockey games are 720 minutes long ( 12 skaters x 60). You only get half of those minutes and can’t control the other teams 360. Your goalie plays 60, so now you have 300. Your top forward plays 25, so now 275, your top d plays 28, so now you have 247. You know have 247 minutes left to distribute through 11 forwards and 5 D. How do you spread them around knowing you have to factor in special teams? It’s a tricky question.
C) Seasonal planning-Every team will go through a series of macro and micro cycles in the course of a season. The tricky part is planning a cycle when you are peaking or close to peaking, such as the playoffs. This will factor in how many practices you have, how many rest days you have. You have to plan for rest and recovery or else you have to adjust your plan for injuries. I find this idea of practice every day not the best. Sure there are skills to learn, but sometimes a day off does wonders, yet the old tradition of being on your skates every day just continues with no thought.
D) Relationship building- This is the biggest skill a coach needs. Teams are comprised of individuals trying to work together and if you don’t have relationships with your players, assistants, upper management, media, fans, etc., you’ll be sunk. The days of Punch Imlach and Toe Blake are long gone and the coach having the final word is long gone. If you have 2-3 players who make twice as much as you do as a coach, they have an influence, whether said players say a word or not.
Just a few notes from the top of my head.
The hamster wheel
How are the new comment settings working?
Any posters trying to arrange barn fights?
Too much bickering still?
Not enough bickering?
(+) for seems to be working
(-) I hate this. All my posts are disappearing.
Seems to be working.
Some of my posts have disappeared. But I am not offended.
There seems to be a lot more constraint being exercised.
.
Is that Tulsky Period. (as in full stop) 🙂
!
That’s an excellent point!
For you guys who are more intimately involved in the Analytics community, has any reliable source in the community identified the top 3 GM’s currently serving as Assistant Gm’s or as GM’s outside the NHL that would be logical candidates for the GM job in Edmonton???
1) Tulsky
2) Tulsky
3) Tie between Tulsky and Tulsky.
That’s one. And damned good one. Thank You.
Two more?
Laurence Gilman’s name has come up before. I believe that he was mentioned by young Willis in an article.
Man, where did the time go? ‘Young Willis’ is probably 40 or at least pushing 40 by now.
Tulsky and Gillman. Thank You Ryan
And a third?
Mike Gillis is another potential option, recall he was pretty fwd thinking for his time with Van re: analytics.
OK. That’ 2 1/2. (haha) Thank You Todd.
Anyone care to add that final 1/2 ?
There’s the legendary Tim Barnes aka “Vic Ferrari,” but he’s a director of hockey analytics, not an AGM.
You could throw Sunny Mehta’s name in the hat too. He’s a VP of hockey strategy and intelligence.
Or Dawson Sprigings who’s the associate director of analytics for the Avs.
Woodguy mentioned to me that the Avs transaction history improved markedly upon his arrival.
He was.
Gillis has said several times he would only be open to a POHO position
Done. POHO = Gillis, GM = Tulsky. Punt Kenny upstairs somewhere next to Lowe and thank him for his service. Would love to find a role for Kevin Weekes somewhere in mgmt as well.
Make it so.
Skoden
Pretty much a dream team IMO.
Randle this is a really interesting question.
The list of names below is very small; is that the size of the great analytical minds in hockey? Should a NHL team look at analytic leaders in other sports? Basketball, Soccer and Baseball seem to be much further ahead in this field. Would a “up and coming MLB executive” translate into the game of hockey?
Would an executive from the world of business (P&G, Tesla), who has been working with bigger budgets, in global markets within a larger more stable database, be an answer. Global experience, probably has run a $1B division in their career.
Could this translate into more transformable results?
I know Tulsky has a strong reputation here –
he was around the table on the trade with Calgary – Lindholm and Hanifin are starring Calgary and Hamilton, Ferland and Fox are all gone for basically nothing.
he was around the table when Kotkaniemi was offer sheeted for $6,100,000.35 and has provided 16 points YTD. AND they gave up a first and third pick.
Those are brutal moves that are in his ledger
There’s also Nedeljikovic which doesn’t seem like great asset management.
Thoughts on Khudobin?
7 games started.
SV% .879
GAA 3.63
Holtby.
16 games started.
SV% .920
GAA 2/56
But IIRC, he’s been pretty reliable in the past – would he be a good cheap bet?
He’s not cheap, cap hit wise, and he’s signed for next season.
Thoughts?
He’s almost 36. You never expect goalies to improve after age 30 and by 35 goalies are expected to fall off the cliff.
The Stars play with a more stingy defensive structure than us, so I’d expect a big drop in SV% playing for the Oilers.
He’s rocking an .879 in 9 starts this year.
I don’t think he moves the needle nor offers a long term solution.
Gord forbid we acquire Khudobin and he goes on a run and Kenny signs him for another two years.
Seeing if we can pry Swayman out of Boston would make a lot more sense to me. 23 years old with a career .928 SV% over 26 appearances. We need someone with potential for the remaining McDavid/Draisaitl contracts.
Wouldn’t it be more likely Ullmark? They have Rask and would likely see Swayman as the inheritor
Possibly. They may not be willing to offer either goalie until they have a handle on Rask’s future (is this a last hurrah for the Bruins core, or does he intend to keep on playing?).
Skinner would probably do that playing in Boston.
Not a chance with him signed for next season.
So Foegele – McLeod – xxx are a good line. Add Kassian and they regress to the Kassian mean. Is Kassian the problem here? It appears so.
3rd Line: Foegele – McLeod – Marody
4th Line: Benson – Ryan – Sceviour
*or some combination – just without Kassian
When GG coached for the two games, he played the 3rd and 4th lines. Shocking how players do better when they are not stapled to the bench and only get 1-2 minutes per period.
It appears that Tippet is panicking and is just beating the rented mule that is McDrai. IF Tippet does not put Kassian in the press box, limit his use of McDrai and play the 3rd and 4th lines more (at least 10 min) then it shows he is done and should be let go.
Time for Holland to step up and stop trying to be everyone’s friend.
You make too much sense. Tippett is the rented mule though and this team isn’t going anywhere under him sadly. I think the same applies with Holland, too stuck in his ways. Yzerman is digging out of his mess nicely.
I keep reading this but its not really fully accurate.
In the one game, with only 11 forwards, Griffith and Marody each played apx 5:30 and almost exclusively with either Drai or McDavid.
That’s not playing the 4th line.
Foegele-McLeod-Kassian 77min 60%SF 25%GF 62%xGF
Foegele-McLeod-xxxxxxx 69min 47%SF 67%GF 44%xGF
Lady luck is the problem, not Kassian.
The pp was pretty endemic with Nuge on it when he was injured, and had been for quite some time. The pp went dead because it was very predictable after the 1st 15 games and teams caught on. Good coaching and watching video will do that. When it went dead , our coaches didn’t adjust anything. Did they try Jesse in Nuge’s spot to have shots come from that side? Perlini as well is a volume shooter.
Nuge can’t hit the net anymore. He is always trying to pick a 6 inch spot up high and in the corner every time. Plus he is dusting the puck off way too much now.
Where Nuge is missed tremendously is on the pk . Albeit not the best faceoff guy available, he is unreal at reading the play while short handed.
I would like to see Jesse on the pp. over Yamamoto for sure
anemic?
Lol. Oops
Why did it take teams 2+ years to ‘figure out’ the Oilers PP?
The highly skilled small forwards are always simply a risk. There is a chance that their skill wins the day, but there is also a chance that their size impedes them from similar success in the NHL or sometimes just the NHL playoffs. It is hard to say if a prospect like Savoie is undervalued. He may be greatly undervalued on Button’s list. Considering the risk of him translating his game to the NHL though, I think Button likely has him in the right spot. Not meaning that he will be the 8th best player in the upcoming draft, but simply that considering his skill and the risk coming from his size, that the 8th spot in the draft might be where the two come together and make the bet a strong one.
Agreed, to me it’s about what makes their game.
If you are small you have to almost always be an elite skater.
I think the best smaller guys are also elite puck handlers and succeed by being able to evade and create space.
Being a good scorer also adds. But small guys that can’t evade and create and space are far less likely to succeed as shooters because they are easy to box out and knock down
There is no absolute rule, but that’s how it seems to me. Smaller players with average production are very vulnerable because a team will always take a normal or bigger sized player and at average scoring they come around often
Kucherov, P Kane, are the pinnacle
Our Savoie is one of my fav prospects, but if he can’t get close enough to the net with some space his NHL production will suffer a lot
Looks like his shot has range, so maybe a little more room between the error bars.
Hopefully, he’s a natural scorer.
He’s talking about getting stronger, puck protection, but at his size that is way less important than him working on his skating. That is how he’ll find space.
He’s taller and has way more weight than Yama, but at 190 lbs in the NHL you aren’t aren’t going to have a physical game against most D men. That matters much anyway. And they will have reach on him as well.
He’s going to play around the same size as Point. Point from accounts worked hard on his boots, and is a top end skater now. That is the key to him using his talent.
I read every day but only have time to post periodically so sometimes I’m a couple days behind! Your article on trading over at the Athletic…there’s always been a couple things that stick in my craw about the way you analyze trades.
It is my opinion that the only trades you should be TRULY judging are those where both parties are actively trying to get the best assets; whether that’s players, picks or cap space. And where the team trading the player would happily still have the player some time later if your offer wasn’t so tempting.
Let me give you a couple examples of Point 1.
Kassian for Scrivens. This was not a hockey trade. Montreal did not go into it thinking they were getting a fine goalie. They wanted Kassian out of there and the return was close to insiginifant. And most importantly, the trade would never be mentioned as a bad trade on a Montreal website. But if you insist on including it then you must also include…
Justin Schultz (half retained) for a 3rd round pick. This guy went on to win two cups playing important minutes and it cost the Pens almost nothing. But I rarely see an Oiler fan consider this a bad trade because there were a ton of reasons to move on from qualifying offer issues to a complete development stall.
I believe both of these trades should be excluded because both teams got what they wanted and both key players would not have been welcomed back to their teams if the offer wasn’t “so strong”.
Let me give you examples of Point 2.
You count Tyler Ennis for a 5th as Hollands biggest win…
But you shrug off John Marino for a 6th because he wasn’t going to sign anyway.
That’s clearly inconsistent.
I’ve even seen you include a trade in for a player but exclude a trade out for the same player.
Patrick Maroon comes in for a 4th and a prospect (best trade ever!) and goes out for a 3rd and a prospect and goes on to win 3 Cups and you don’t see it mentioned.
I don’t think either should be mentioned because there are all sorts of factors involved and everyone was content with the outcomes.
HERE are the recent trades I believe should be in the Oilers management ledgers;
Then you have the deadline deals involving draft picks, where both sides get what they want . They can be judged but it’s more like a purchase; like buying a carton of milk. The prices fluctuate a bit but make no mistake, there’s a formula. Did they give up too much currency? Athanasiou for two seconds etc, Greene for a 5th etc. These are selling items that have ZERO value for the selling team, at a somewhat fixed price. The deadline selling Oilers have millions of these and they are all basically wins because you’re getting something (a pick) for nothing (going to miss the playoffs and not keep the player anyway). Purcell for a 3rd. Phil Larsson for a 5th. Hemsky for a 3rd and 5th. N. Schultz for a 5th.
Thought it’s worth discussing as quantifying a GMs trading abilities is challenging at the best of times but moreso if this type of logic isn’t applied.
I remember LT once wrote something along the lines of “the Oilers treat capspace like some damnable thing that must be eradicated.”
The Oilers seem to prioritize “being a cap team” as if it’s got marketing cache rather than optimizing “cap health” as LT mentioned in that article.
Last year, I dug deep into Burnaby Joe’s transaction history.
What I noticed differs from the Oilers, is that the Avs do a much better job of reading the market and knowing what’s going to be on sale and when… Also having the cap space to make transactions work.
The Oilers get fixated on one particular thing and I trade for need while rarely taking advantage of the market.
They also seem to lack the scouting resources to track other teams prospects.
I think having top heavy roster had something to do with it. It almost appearedthat since they’ve got their super stars signed long term “at home team discount” / “leaving money on the table”, they are trying to show ambition by being a cap team every damn year.
*slight gain on spooner for gagner
*Big loss on gagner for green ( I think that was a cap thing though)
The team is missing Nuge big time! Both the PK and PP are anemic. His unsung work and vision on both are missed! It will be a big addition when he returns.
This is not a knock on Nuge. But isn’t it problematic that a PP with 2 superstars require someone else to stir the drink?
Network effect. McDavid and Draisaitl are willing to pass the puck to Nugent-Hopkins. 2! =2. 3! -6. Three times as many passes to defend when Nugent-Hopkins is on the power play.
LT has been right for a long time on the high cost of “Inefficiency”.
The Oilers Mgt has lost so much collateral in so many trades/moves over the past decade, only a lottery could help to self-correct.
However we got here, there will be “another” price to pay (wink wink nudge nudge) that is going to exact a cost in collateral that will be painful. Was it avoidable?
Markstrom at $6mx6. Majority of posters thought we dodged a bullet; Was it a case of penny wise pound foolish?
.
Markstrom was not good at all last year. He was smokin hot up until Flame latest slide. Right now he is not playing great. Besides I don’t think he really wanted to come here and liked Calgary better🤷
IMO people are way over thinking this losing streak. Our goaltending sucks – full stop. They give up a gift goal virtually every game – just give the opponent a free goal. That’s death in a 3-2 league and crushes morale. When the team gets good goaltending, like they did with Smith last year and Talbot a few years ago, they win a lot of games. No team wins games when their goalies have an .870 save percentage over the last 10 games. Or your starter leads the league in goals allowed on low danger scoring chances.
Our defence should be better than last year. Basically, the changes this year are Keith vs Jones, Larsson vs Ceci and Bouchard vs Bear. IMO, this years group is better. The problem is we lost one of our most physical defenders, but that shouldn’t be an issue until the playoffs.
The team has many, many flaws, but it should be better than last year. A new coach might breathe fresh air into the team, but nothing changes with Koskinnen as the starter – nothing.
Koskinnen is taking way to much heat, everything falls on him because the GM signed Smith who cant stay healthy, even for a short while. Replace Smith with a goalie that can play 35-40 games and is decent and a lot of these problems go away.
Also the defense is horrible, every game there are 3-4 terrible break downs that give the other team easy opportunities. An all star keeper wouldn’t do great back stopping the Oiler’s, most of the top goalies in the NHL have really good defenses, they just have to keep things simple and rack up the wins.
A keeper for the Oiler’s has to stand on his head every game, fix the defense first, its terrible, old, slow and gives up way to many chances.
Keith, Barrie, Russell screams to me that Holland never saw this team as presently configured, as a true contender.
He truly is counting on four out of, Nurse, Bouchard, Broberg, Ceci, Niemelainen, and Samorukov to form the top 4 of a contending team.
Dmen make mistakes every game on every team. They need help from the goalie. I’m very skeptical that our defence is worse than last year, yet the results are much worse.
To be clear, I’m not crapping on Koskinnen. His shortcomings are well known. He should have never been put in a position to be starter.
Bear and Larsson are both better than the three guys the Oilers have playing on the right side. (Bouchard has the most potential, but he is effectively a rookie, that is being overwhelmed because Barrie cannot play defense, and the coaches spend their time and effort on trying to hide Barrie more than on properly developing Bouchard.)
The lack of a legit proven top 4 RD means that Nurse is less effective. The Oilers have no one to play with Nurse.
I don’t think Larsson is better than Ceci. He might be a better fit because of his physicality. Bear is probably better than Bouchard right now. But the difference between Ceci-Bouchard and Larsson-Bear isn’t a massive gulf that explains this years results.
The defence has not been stellar either. Tippett’s refusal to line match at home also somewhat responsible. You win and lose as a team. Plenty of blame to go around is my opinion!
As for goaltending, what you mention is very well known to nearly all and yet the GM did nothing when there was very good options and lots of cap room.
As for the defence, they don’t hit or use body checks to separate puck. Instead they stand there screening the goalie while flailing away with their stick (many times with one hand on the stick) and hitting people in the face when they miss… They are softer than a pillow. The gaps are huge as forwards skate into the zone because they refuse to throw their body in the way of oncoming skaters. The only defenceman who semi-consistently closes the gap before the opposition reaches the blue line, is Nurse. Waving at pucks with a stick does nothing to stop charging forwards entering the zone, or on the cycle. These are NHL forwards and they will simply walk around a waving stick. Without a physical presence expect this to continue.
The system being used to defend in their own end in useless IMO. The Oilers allow teams to cycle on the perimeter in their zone and they are not physical enough to stop it. (Larsson was an expert at getting himself in the way and making forwards pay for it). The wingers are not defending the point man and are too deep to get in the way or block point shots. Compounding matters, when the defenceman does get off a point shot, it has a high chance of being deflected at the Oilers net because the wingers gap is too big and any opposing player floating through the hash marks/top of circles, is not tied up. Unless the Oilers employ a stronger defensive zone system, or get more physical, the issues will continue. It is my opinion that it is not so much the type of defenceman we have but rather the defensive system they employ in their own zone. The system employed does not suit the type of defenceman we have. We need to either change the system, or change the players to find better defensive success.
Square peg? Meet round hole^^^^^^^ Tippet and Playfair need to figure it out. Can’t get rid of entire defence. Also: the odd man rushes are a direct result of desire to up the ozone time due to defenceman pinching at poor times. Did you hear Tippet going on about how the Oilers ozone time was so high in Ottawa game? Ozone time is nice but if the trade off is odd man rushes against in order to up the ozone time, I cannot see how you can ever be good at not giving up goals. Odd man rushes are not good for the goalie!
But why are the results this year much worse than last year? We lost an element with Larsson for sure, but Ceci appears to be a very competent replacement. Keith is an improvement at 2LHD. Hyman and Foegle should improve defence from the forwards. So why is this team so much worse defensively? Is the system different this year from last year?
No the defensive system is nearly identical with the exception of more ozone pinching. (Playfair mentioned on spitting chiclets that a new wrinkle was to have one shot on goal per game by each defenceman)
I am not so sure we are worse than last year. The w/l record and goals against is slightly worse overall, but I believe a lot of it is due to weaker goaltending and inconsistent special teams. The Oilers must find a way to be more physical and/or change defensive systems to suit the personnel if they want to be better defensively. That is on the coaches and their willingness though. I wouldn’t count on it because Tippet is as stubborn as they come.
Ryan,
You asked yesterday for trade candidates at the goalie position.
Assuming Holland does not go whale hunting.
I would enquire into the cost of current backup, Charlie Lindgren. Play him as a back up to Smith. Hope for lightening in a bottle. .958 SV % in 5 games for the Blues this year.
Whale hunting
MAF doesn’t want to leave the USA
Price is too expensive (and risky)
Holtby Why would Dallas do this? Also, Holtby is playing behind one of the tightest defensive teams in the NHL. Odds are he goes back to being bad Holtby on this Oilers team.
Jake Allen. Limited success as a starter playing behind some very good defense corps.
Varlamov. Lamoriello is going to conduct a surgery on Ken Holland and remove a vital organ and then he’ll remove another less vital organ.. Kidney Gall Bladder.
Dreiger and Halak. You’re going to pay way above market value in you do this in season and in Division.
Rangers are healthy in goal now. We should make a play for Georgiev
I think he has a very good upside. 25 years old and probably coming into his prime . No clue on the cost, but probably our 1st and ?????
Chris Drury is sitting pretty. One Elite Goalie and one young stud in waiting
Agreed. Our 1st and ????…. another 1st
I like Georgiev too. Could be a long term solution. He also hasn’t been comfortable just being a backup this year.. wants the starters role.
Georgiev? Have you looked at his stats in the past 3 years? Because there’s nothing there that suggests he’s worth anything close to a 1st, let alone 1st+. He certainly isn’t going to single-handedly save this season.
I say try Lou, if Varlamov waives we could be in a Roloson situation full stop. I would probably pay a 1st + if they take back Smith.
A back up for Smith needs to play about 75 games
HAHA! 🙂
Don’t exaggerate it’s probably only 65.😉
Greiss in Detroit. Not a great choice, but not expensive. Might buy time to get a good goalie. And you can include Koskinnen in the trade.
What do you like about Lindgren?
Panthers have a plethora of goalies and high-end goalie prospects
Some good data here:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/whats-edmonton-oilers-analyzing-extended-slump/
Yeah it is interesting.
The conclusions: finishing and goaltending.
Everything else under the hood actually looks solid (better than when they were winning).
Good read. Get good goalies. Simple. The biggest issue with the PP recently is lack of opportunities. They’ve had 23 PPs in the last 10 games, and some of those were not full PPs. Even the best PP will get rusty if they rarely get out there. Two PPs or less in seven of the last 10 games. And unfortunately I don’t think the refs are missing a bunch of calls.
Also some curious errors.
Dom has the Oilers playoff chances below 50% while Moneypuck is at 38%.
She also didn’t adjust the standings fir the wide disparity in games played.
For example, by points percentage, the Flames are in second in the Pacific.
Ryan Whitney on Twitter:
“Just sitting here waiting for the Edmonton Oilers to do something. Fire the coach or make a trade but for god sake DO SOMETHING”
IMO Hollands priorities are something like
1) Stay on top of Evander Kane situation
2) Being a good Boy Scout “Be Prepared” for circumstances forcing your hand sooner than you would like. (That is being “forced” to make a move pre-deadline)
3) Making every effort to “get the band back together again” Smith, RNH, others?
4) Avoiding the press
5) Having his Pro Scouts scour the league for the next Jack Campbell
In the mean time, I’m OK with this lineup.
Hyman-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Perlini-McDavid-Yamamoto
Foegele-McLeod-Kassian
Shore-Ryan-Sceviour
These are all good hockey players. Somewhere in there is the right configuration. Is this the combination that makes the tumblers go “Click”???
Worth a try imo, to attempt to “unlock” this teams potential.
Desperation is a stinky cologne.
If there’s a trade, it’ll be an overpriced veteran coming in.
Shore-Ryan-Sceviour actually have quite nice numbers together in 30 minutes (0-0 goals but good otherwise – 60% xGF even).
The gods have been incredibly unkind to Ryan so far, but maybe that line can actually be effective in limited minutes.
I like Foegele-McLeod-Kassian as well. Leon gets most of the help up top and McDavid, well you never know.
Sometimes there’s an element of chemistry that we just can’t predict. We see it all the time in real life. There’s no reason why the personalities and instincts on this new 97 line can’t click.
I’m trying to be optimistic here…
Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
NEWS: Sources tell @DailyFaceoff that #NHL will no longer test asymptomatic players and staff following the All-Star break, provided Covid-19 rates continue to decline around the league.
Testing will only then be for cross-border travel (as required) and if symptoms arise.
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1483466106224402433?s=20
I can see some issues with this as it essentially means that every player that hasn’t contracted Covid, will contract it and, of course, outside of hockey they interface with those that aren’t necessarily as protected or healthy).
With that said, I am “fine with this” generally but it means less now given over half the players have already dealt with it and don’t have to test for 90 days.
Good, I find rather silly to use wildly innaccurate tests on people with no symptoms.
The world is upside down. We’re putting healthy people in quarantine & professional athletes are being disqualified for NOT taking drugs. SMFH. . .