Ken Holland arrived in the spring of 2019, just in time to draft Philip Broberg in the first round of that summer’s draft. The Oilers fans, a smart group with strong opinions, cried foul as Edmonton passed over several prominent and talented forwards to take the big defender.
Holland drafted 11 forwards in the next 12 picks, six of them (Raphael Lavoie, Dylan Holloway, Carter Savoie, Tyler Tullio, Maxim Berezkin, Xavier Bourgault) with at least an outside chance to make the NHL as offensive wingers. Ken Holland needs an inexpensive top-six winger, or two, as soon as this fall. Who will win the race?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- New Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- New DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: The furious race to land Oilers’ open job on left defence
- DNB: Derek Ryan flourishing under new Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s early Oilers roster challenges and possible upgrades
- DNB: Oilers picking Philip Broberg over Trevor Zegras is still debated.
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s remains a transcendent talent. Here’s why.
- DNB: Jay Woodcroft’s ascension to Oilers head coach is more than a dream come true: ‘Winning is a skill’
- DNB: Six signs of positive change surface for the Oilers in Jay Woodcroft’s victorious coaching debut
- Lowetide: 7 Oilers players poised to benefit most from Jay Woodcroft becoming head coach
- Lowetide: Oilers pro forward depth chart about to get overhauled
- DNB: Three Oilers questions that will define stretch run
- DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman is compelled to speak up about antisemitism when he sees it
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ choice to take Kailer Yamamoto in 2017 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: Why prospects stall in the AHL
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: WAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, CHI, NYI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-4-2, 14 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 28-19-3, 59 points in 50 games
REPLACING VALUE CONTRACTS
Edmonton has one-half of its top wingers signed for next year. Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele and Derek Ryan are signed, but Evander Kane, Jesse Puljujarvi are Kailer Yamamoto are either UFA (Kane) or RFA. Zack Kassian is signed and remains an option, but his status and deployment under the new coaching staff is uncertain.
Puljujarvi’s contract is going to be dear, and Kane is a player I believe Holland will pursue over the summer. Signing Yamamoto shouldn’t be too dear, but the organization may also want to make room for a different look on right wing.
Is there an inexpensive option that could be added to Hyman, Foegele and Ryan? Is there a roster player who can slide in on either wing? Let’s look at the three centers, and who is performing well with them in 2021-22. We begin with Connor McDavid.
Jesse Puljujarvi is a terrific right-winger for McDavid, but his price tag is going to rise significantly. Daniel Nugent-Bowman took a look at this issue for The Athletic and at that time $5 million was a number that looked difficult to avoid. Now, JP has slowed down and is now injured, but something well north of $4 million annually is likely if the big Finn finishes around 40 points over 60 (or so) games. That might mean deciding between Puljujarvi and another big piece. I think the Oilers should sign him, the longer the better.
Hyman is a solid choice for either of the top two lines, if the club signs Evander Kane then I think the McDavid line works best for Hyman. Benson and McLeod, like Foegele, are interesting options but the Oilers won’t get into next season counting on either of them.
Best case scenario: Hyman is already signed, add a $4+ million Jesse Puljujarvi and you’re set for the No. 1 line. Now Draisaitl.
Man this is some mediocre work from the wingmen. Puljujarvi looks good here, some of that would be alongside McDavid. Foegele is solid, Kane more dynamic. Yamamoto is disappointing here, as is Nuge. McLeod is an interesting option if it comes to it, that Yamamoto number is a concern.
The line is less than seven minutes old, but Foegele and Ryan seem to be the best available. The two wingers are signed for next year at a total of $4 million, that’s helpful. Is a third line that costs under $10 million good? In this economy?
Oilers have about $750,000 left, I bought out Zack Kassian (didn’t want to but did anyway), traded Tyson Barrie and Kailer Yamamoto for Carson Soucy and Mason Appleton, signed free agents Darcy Kuemper and Evander Kane. A young lefty is going to have to move to RH side on defense, I looked and looked but there’s just not much on the right side and if I trade for Ethan Bear in this model you’ll all go spare.
Right wing looks weak, but McLeod, Holloway and Appleton are candidates to step up and you can move Hyman over if needed. I have Duncan Keith on LTIR, and thought about putting Mike Smith there, too. I know you hate it, but after your rage subsides I’d love to hear your thoughts and other possible solutions.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we hit the ground running with plenty of hockey talk. Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff will join us to talk Oilers at the deadline, plus Andrew Peard will pop in to discuss the Edmonton Oil Kings, who are one of two powerhouse WHL teams this year. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
NEW for The Athletic: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
https://theathletic.com/3141699/2022/02/23/lowetide-3-trade-targets-that-could-help-oilers-this-season-and-beyond/
Just want to say, I’m glad people aren’t so fixated on “Nuge isn’t scoring 5v5,” or “Nuge doesn’t have as many goals as I’d like” kind of takes these days. I don’t buy the whole “5v5 points count more” nonsense. A goal or an assist is always helpful.
43GP: 7G-30A-37P = 0.86 P/GM
That’s not a bad mid-point marker for Baby Nuge.
Remember when people said he could never crest 50 points? He’s on pace for almost 60 assists. He’s always been streaky. A goal scoring run wouldn’t be out of the question, not one bit. He could still pot 20G and 50A this year. For about $5M.
5v5 points don’t count more.
But 5v5 production is more important.
He had 52 points in his rookie season. There’s a reason that comment became a meme.
Gagner was the one who actually couldn’t hit 50 (until that year with Columbus). Though he scored at a 50 points/82 pace 5 times for the Oilers.
In the early days of analytics, writers at sites like Behind the Net and others, struggled to show a robust team or coaching effect on goalie save percentage. Even with heat maps showing shots from the outside, it was always such a disappointment for something that seemed intuitively apparent.
There were articles with wonderful names like searching for the Jacques Lemaire effect.
Sadly, no one seems to write these types of articles any more.
Anecdotally, we’d here quotes from a Laurent Broissoit remarking that it was much easier to make stops playing for the Jets as they’d limit passes across “the royal road” and such.
^^True story
Of course, I’m going to blab a bit about Jay Woodcroft and his great start and approach to coaching this team. Last night was a blip and expected after a series of games played at a higher level of intensity not seen for a long time.
Woodcroft is the new style of coach we’re going to see more of. He combines a lot of technical knowledge with the advantage of having a pretty good mentorship under Babcock and McClellan. When I say mentorship, perhaps he learned from Babcock how NOT to play head games with your players an of course, to be part of a team that won the big prize.
The new part comes in how he teaches. During the first practices, he used paint on the ice to create a visual reminder and use it as a teaching aid. I remember doing that way back when after seeing it in a clinic (NOTE- Rinkies hate paint on the ice and if you use it, let it dry before the kids slide through it). It surprises you how well that works. Lots of players struggle with where they have to stand when playing in their own zone, and to point at a section of ice can be subjective at best. It can lead to frustration for both player and coach and if done over a long period can turn a molehill into a mountain. Woodcroft and Manson seem to teach a lot in specifics from what I’ve seen. There is definitely more structure with this team. Everyone is learning their roles and committing to each other.
One tactical area that I’ve really noticed is in neutral zone play, both on offense and defense. There’s more of an urgency and a willingness in making the neutral zone a real no mans land.
Those are my quick observations.
Terry Crisp once remarked of Scotty Bowman’s expertise (seeing Bowman lead the expansion Blues to three consecutive finals), that Bowman was the best because he loved the game, he studied the game, and he knew the game.
I hope Woodcroft does those three things.
Go Oilers!
No sarcasm detected at all.
If you’re lucky, you can find an assistant who has played goal or even exterior help. Ideally, I always liked one assistant to run/teach the D, and one for a goalie coach. We as a team always worked on team tactics and special teams.
When I first started coaching, there was always a section in the coach level manual that talked about not ignoring your goalie and ensuring you had drills that helped them. You just can’t simply tell a goalie to stop a puck, especially if you’ve never done it. I was constantly searching for ways to help my goalie, be it reading up on ways to coach goalies and even attending a clinic put on by Pete Peeters. The Peeters clinic was fascinating, because he credited the legendary Jaques Plante with saving his career.
Sadly though, we seem to do things ass backwards in the coaching programs in Canada as we don’t really get into teaching about goalies till you get to the higher levels (AKA High Performance) when we really should be teaching about coaching goalies in your earliest levels.
Whatever you do, just remember goalies have their own way of doing things and in my experience, they are either the quietest kid on the team or the biggest loon. Who can blame them though? They voluntarily sit there and put their bodies in the way of the puck.
Joseph Zita@josephdzita·2hElliotte
Friedman on Sportsnet during the first intermission: “If Dubas is gonna be able to use his LTI space, i think that’s gonna make things really interesting for him.
I’m on the JT Miller train.”
ELLIOTTE👀
Nick Mercadante
@NMercad
·
2h
Hearing that movement is imminent on JT Miller. Standby for updates.
I don’t think “imminent” means what you think it means.
“Big Save Dave” faces 47 shots as Preds beat Panthers 6-4 in Florida.
It might not feel summery, but it’s time for a summary.
Brind’Amour finished with just the one assist, but it gives him 14 points on the season, his most productive NCAA campaign thus far.
Fun fact: Aapeli (Stampede) Räsänen’s younger brother Iivari is a sophomore d-man for Quinnipiac.
– why can’t we “Marian Hossa” Duncan Keith. He somehow got retired and got paid. Maybe Holland has a trick up his sleeve like they did in Detroit. Details are fuzzy but they got massive relief on his contract while I believe is still “on the books”
– Kinger you meant Zetterberg for Detroit. I think Datsyuk as well. It used to tick me off that Detroit seemed to be able to play funny games and circumvent the cap. Happy for Holland to figure out how to do that for us now. A retired Klef and Keith with certainty on being able to use their cap on actual players is a $9mm + delta
What are the possibilities with klef: if he is unable to play due to medical he stays on ltir. Is there any scenario where he is not able to ride ltir into the sunset of his contract? Cause otherwise why would he retire?
-Zetterberg had a “skin condition”. I don’t appreciate all the nuances but in both his and hossa they both “retired” but got paid their contracts and their retirement allowed Chicago amd Detroit to extend their windows. I don’t fully understand but this year for instance the total payroll of actual players who played for the oilers wasn’t reduced by Klefs status when the season is complete. Next year is klefs final year of contract.
Hossa had the skin condition,”the gunk.” He went on LTIR, I believe.
Zetterberg retired in 2018 due to a back condition even though his contract ran until 2020-21.
After he retired, he no longer got paid. He walked away from $5.35 m which is remarkable.
What’s more remarkable is that there was no cap recapture penalty on his obviously back diving contract.
Keith, who you are calling “not an actual NHL player”, is in the running for Oiler defenceman of the year.
And the delta isn’t $9M because Klef is on LTIR. The delta is Keith’s salary minus the league min you MUST spend for that roster spot.
Hasn’t checked in since the summer, apparently.
You’ve got your players/timelines/details all mixed up.
Hossa played for CHI when he developed his allergic reaction to his equipment. This was under Stan “The Lesser” Bowman’s tenure.
Zetterberg played for DET and was put on LTIR due to chronic back issues.
One of these things is (likely) not like the other.
Don’t forget, Old Dutch laughed as he traded Z’s contract to Chayka in ARI for cap space and the pick that would ultimately become Chychrun. Pick your poison wisely.
I think you mean Datysuk’s contract was traded to Arizona.
I feel confident that with 7 months more rehab Holloway will be a better overall contributor than many on the NHL roster next season, assuming he has no more injuries (pinkies crossed)
So someone gets pushed or pushed down, might have to deal
He might see a push this season but normally 1PPG is where a kid needs to be, not there yet and apparently still getting used to pro hockey requirements like defensive tasks
No need to rush
Cancelled my comment. Hope few of you see it. Will now think about my new handle.
You’ve been Terminated Motherfu..er.
# 9 for the Preds is of course Forsberg. And he of course dominates. I feel shame.
Sorry got that all wrong. Nashville Jersey looks lite Pittsburgh. Should not surf so quickly.
Mistake.
The junior Brind’Amour gets the solitary apple on the ice-breaker for Quinnipiac halfway thru the first:
https://twitter.com/QU_MIH/status/1496281620583628804?cxt=HHwWiICq7ZmN7sMpAAAA
I would love to see a trade with CBJ.How about Yamamoto,Kassian,Barrie,Koskinen,and a Defence prospect for Korpiscalo,and Laine?Any comments OP?
I’m not in to a $7.5MM QO for Laine and that leaves the current team with no 3rd RD for now.
Not to mention that Korpisalo is worse than Mikko (just cheaper).
Although I don’t really like the trade for return and team makeup on EDM side, i’d be amazed if CBJ would make it.
I’d probably do it as while it might make us worse this year – it opens up a lot of needed cap.for the off season for essentially the cost of Yamamoto and whatever amount of barrie’s contract value has value…(would not be qualifying Laine though)
I still think some combo of barrie/koskinen/yam/plus to Seattle for driedger/decent ufa forward or RD more a logical partner
Looking like Woodcroft has decided to shift Hyman over to RW with McDavid and MacLeod on his LW. Kane & Yamamoto on Leon flanks . Genius.
I was hoping the Oilers could run lean in Goal next year with a cost-effective Smith-Skinner tandem, but that strategy is flawed.
I really think MA Fleury is the right player / position / persona to add to this team.
Whatever Fleury costs, let’s say $5M, will make the team stronger than anywhere else you care to spend $5M.
One area where GM’s have gotten wise (including Holland!) is using LTIR.
As an example, the Oilers could run Fleury-Smith-Skinner next season, giving both Fleury and Smith extended runs on LTIR to relieve the cap pressure and run with 3 goalies throughout the season.
Perhaps Mr. Fleury would like to spend December & January with his family re-hab’ing in Palm Springs, returning to YEG from Valentine’s day forward. Skinner gets a boatload of starts throughout the middle of the season, and has two excellent mentors to groom him for the role.
Just thinking out loud – but I think trading for Fleury allows us to make use of him for this AND next season.
You can’t do this like it’s just some kind of roster/cap option. Players have to be actually hurt, long-term.
I see your point, but I think there is some ambiguity around injuries that GM’s have begun to exploit (eg. Kucherov, Stone)
With a 38 & a 40-year old goaltender I think you can plan for the inevitability of injury, and leverage it to basically have two guys split time on IR.
Wishful thinking with Fleury, obviously, but among goalies who often get mentioned I see him as the most likely to make the team any kind of playoff contender in the short-term.
Kucherov and Stone were actually hurt for extended periods of time – there may have been some “relaxing of the rules” regarding when Kucherov had to be activated but those were serious long term injuries.
Just like LT’s suggestion of putting Keith on LTIR for the entirety of next season, its not reasonable to project the ability to put MAF on LTIR for period of time for cap structuring purposes.
You cannot plan to use LTIR that way at some point in the season. You have to be cap compliant coming out of camp. You cannot force someone to be hurt in camp just so you be compliant at start of the season. Nor can a GM act on the bet that they will be hurt in camp.
I don’t disagree that Fleury is the perfect target in terms of skill, persona and position, however it has been well-established that he would not want to leave the United States to play in Canada. He is also currently earning $7million so I am not sure he would take a paycut to join the Oilers. He would likely need $7 million to come northward, and even at that I am not sure he joins. If any team would be able to sign him,I would guess it Pittsburgh for cheap as he finishes his career and plays as a tandem/backup for the end of their cup window.
I’d rather target Varlamov. Better results in recent years and most likely a lower acquisition cost.
https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/goalie_standard/?_inputs_&std_gl_adj=%22Score%20%26%20Venue%22&std_gl_status=%22All%22&std_gl_info=%22No%22&std_gl_fa=%223800%22&std_gl_table=%22On-Ice%22&std_gl_span=%22Regular%22&std_gl_group=%22All%22&std_gl_dft_yr=%22All%22&std_gl_players=null&std_gl_str=%22All%22&std_gl_range=%22Seasons%22&std_gl_season=%5B%2220212022%22%2C%2220202021%22%2C%2220192020%22%5D&std_gl_team=%5B%22CHI%22%2C%22NYI%22%2C%22VGK%22%5D&std_gl_age1=%2217%22&std_gl_age2=%2250%22
Trotz’s system makes “meh” goatenders look okay.
Proof?
Things that can be proven are boring. I wanna discuss the other stuff.
So let me rephrase your question: Godot, what makes you say that? Also is “meh” considered worse than “okay”?
Holloway scored last night breaking a six game pointless streak. Now has six points in thirteen games down in Bako.
Ya, that was a few nights ago, I believe – I posted the video link – my one contribution from Central America.
It was a great moment as it was via his shot – a solid snap shot from the top of the circles. Not a great goal on the goalie but his first “shot goal”.
Oh yeah, should be. Bob could’ve been reporting from the weekend since they didn’t have an actual show yesterday..
Al, I’m just listening to today’s podcast and something dawned on me. I had been somewhat (mostly) in a foul mood today. Nothing groundbreaking, but just a typical dose of daily stressors. Bills, not enough money, Covid, inflation, am I raising my daughter’s well, ad nauseum.
I realized that your voice calms those thoughts and allows me to just temporarily float a bit in Oilers Land. So I wanted to say thanks, to you and Hernand. Thanks for the podcast, and thanks for the blog. Thanks for being dependable, and thanks for being balanced.
You do more than provide opinions and statistics to some of us. You reconnect us to the ground and you are a conduit of balance in an otherwise up and down world.
Cheers,
Kevin.
Well said and ditto for me. After this your blog name could be gratefulforsports.
That’s very kind, thank you Kevin. You made my day!
Having a quick look down the list of upcoming free agents, what about Valeri Nichuskin? He’s not long past turning 27, only on $2.5 mill currently. He’d be a perfect option to slide in on the 3rd line as a RW instead of Ryan, or potentially play second line with Draisatl in a pinch. 34 GP, 13 goals, 13 assists this year for the Avs.
Granted cap wise we’d need to have dealt or bought out Kassian like you suggest. And we’re either not resigning Kane, or getting him cheaper than the $5.5 mill you’re suggesting above. Plus Yamo is definitely gone in this model which I’m not sure I like, but I think I’d take Nichuskin over him as a 2nd/3rd line option.
Of course I’m guessing Nichuskin’s services will be highly sought after this summer by most teams looking for wingers with size that can also put up points, so maybe a non starter. Still I like the idea of Drai-Nichuskin together, purely to blow certain people’s brains up on Twitter (Evolving Wild 🙂 )
Unpopular opinion, & I stand by it, I’d trade Puljujarvi & Skinner for Konecny & Hart, mostly, I have my doubts that getting Kuemper for or Puljujarvi under 4.5M or any goalie on the UFA market would be something our GM is capable of doing & will end up with something like Holtby.
I’ve seen this movie for the 13 years.
Definitely unpopular but would solve the biggest issue the Oilers have had since… Talbot? Salo? Cujo? I like it.
Id hate to lose both guys but I’d definitely do a deal with that framework. To make cap work and to balance it value wise feel like we’d have to add more, considering the 2 best players in the deal (for right now) are on the other side.
The above + Koski (cap) + Barrie (cap + some value still) + maybe 1 other asset (2nd, Samo)? I’d still do that no doubt, unsure if Philly would but bet they would at least think about it.
I don’t love 5.5 for Konecny, but I like the Sather-style deal.
Teams are supposed to make trades that are basically even talent-wise but address need.
Also talent+future for better talent. At any position and using any player.
Those are the sorts of trades that work.
We have seen far too few of them as Oilers fans for some time.
I think thats a great deal, and Philly might even be persauded to make it and objectively it makes the Oilers better so I should do it.
My fan blinders have me very angry at you for trading Puljujarvi though. I hope I don’t have to see it happen even if Mackinnon was coming back the other way (okay maybe for Mackinnon…)
That’s an unpopular opinion? Maybe on a Flyers blog.
Puljujarvi has more upside than Konecny, does Hart have more upside than Skinner? He’s not performing as well as Skinner this year and last year he was horrible. He costs 4 times the amount and is a year older. This duo doesn’t necessarily make the team better immediately and costs probably $5M more than Puljujarvi + Skinner, so other moves will have to be made to accommodate, which has to be calculated in.
Not convinced.
Look at Carey Price 1st couple years as a back up then as a starter, I’m old enough to remember when many,many MTL fans wanted to keep Halak and trade Price.
Hart has that same make up as Price IMHO.
Carey Price was world’s better than Hart at the same age – he played 72 games (!!) and posted a .923 save percentage and 20.5 GSAx (+0.292/60) at 23. Hart isn’t close.
Again, Hart is underperforming Stuart Skinner right now, this season. Why are you convinced he’s the next Carey Price and Skinner is not?
Completely agree! You’re not getting better by making that deal.
Skinner is better than Hart.
If Skinner was close to Hart he’d be playing in the NHL instead of running Koskinen or Smith out there.
Not necessarily so! Draft pedigree makes a difference as does team need as to when a young goalie gets his opportunity. How the young player does is also largely dependant on team commitment to team defence. In my opinion, the reason goal tending is voodoo has to do with the number of moving parts that affect the results!
Bold claim, Cotton.
Can you back that up with data?
Genuinely interested.
I’m not godot, but I can look up stats.
SS: 2.62 GAA, .913 sv%
CH: 2.96 GAA, .910 sv%
SS: 8.74 HDSA/60, .832 HDsv%
CH: 9.22 HDSA/60, .829 HDsv%
– per NST
SS: 1.01 GSAx, +0.083 GSAx/60
CH: 0.59 GSAx, +0.019 GSAx/60
– per Evolving Hockey
Bob: Keith will pushing for return by the Chicago game.
Bob would stick with 7-11 and send Broberg back.
Assuming no other injuries, there is all but zero doubt Broberg is re-assigned back when Keith is healthy. A couple solid cups of coffee this season is actually ahead of schedule and will be awesome for the 20 year old’s development (which will continue in the proper development league – and the Condors have like 18 games in 40 days coming up (or something like that)).
How the coach’s deploy the D/F with Keith back is another matter that has more outcomes.
Spector on ON…
(paraphrasing)
Believes Holland has hooks in the water fishing for a goalie right now. Too far from the deadline for any of that to pay off. Believes Holland fully aware goaltending isn’t good enough and wants to fix it, but question is, can he in-season? Believes if there was a legit number one out there that can be had on a reasonable deal, the deal would already be done.
So nothing new. I’d have expected this to be the situation. Thanks for the confirmation, Mr. Spector.
Woodley via Gregor weighs in on Smith’s goaltending, including the philosophy of playing deep, which I pointed out yesterday:
https://oilersnation.com/2022/02/22/early-goals-against-a-concern-for-the-edmonton-oilers/
That’s funny because the goalie school my kid went to in Montreal was Francois Allaire. Do not remember him teaching young goalies to play deep! It was all butterfly. I do not remember Patrick Roy playing deep in goal but have not seen him play for a long long time!
Completely different era.
But it’s still big goalie era. If you’re huge, just butterfly and cover the entire top of the net with height, cut down angles with challenging shooters. Why take away your height advantage playing deep?
I think you are completely missing the style shift. ALL goalies are butterfly goalies today. There are no stand-up goalies left. Accordingly, that’s not what is being discussed.
We are discussing playing deep versus out and challenging shooters. I think if you look at what I said, cover the bottom of the net (butterfly) but do it while challenging shooters. I think this is exactly what is being discussed.
Every goalie already covers the bottom of the net. Stating it is simply redundant.
The question is are they out or deep when they do so? That is the difference being discussed. The covering the bottom of the net part is already assumed to be true and happening for both out and deep.
Adding a variable that is not actually a variable simply confuses the issue unnecessarily.
Neither big goalie plays big right now. I think both are fighting the puck and not confident. Smith because he’s hardly had a season is old for a goalie and that may be the fork in him
Koski for me because his style and strengths don’t work well this side of the pond. Europe’s ‘best goalie’ hasn’t dialed it in here
As per Eric Duhatschek of The Athletic, Duhatschek notes that a Czech media outlet has the Oilers kicking tires on the player…Dominik Kubalik
Well…since its out there,
Dominik Kubalik’s salary is $4,000,000 and his cap hit is $3,700,000 for the 2021-22 season. He is a 26 year old left wing who was born on Aug. 21, 1995. Over a career that spans 3 seasons, he has a total 103 Pts in 176 GP, and 8 playoffs Pts in 9 GP. He will be a RFA at the end of the 2021-22 season when he is 26 years old.
We all know that the Oilers have more urgent needs, but what would the cost be for Kubalik?
Would it involve a player like Yamamoto?
I might be interested in Kubalik for Yamo if the Hawks would take the Kassian contract for whatever that costs.
As long as the interest is based on current scouting and not “he beat us in the play-in”.
I like the player but don’t trust Oilers pro scouting.
Wouldn’t mind Blackhawks taking Barrie either (if Kass is not a fit for them).
I read somewhere that he’s a Stone Cold Killer – I presume that mantra would die instantly if the Oilers did acquire him.
Time for Holland to get some return on the favour Chicago owes on the Keith deal
Nope…wrong as usual.
Kubalik is a one shot scorer that they’re hoping some of the distant bells become before Draisaitl and McDavid fly the coop.
Definitely worth pursuing but you won’t get him for flotsam like Yamamoto and/or Kassian.
The Hawks already have a small, skilled scorer who is much better than Yamamoto and Kassian on that contract makes him a net negative
Kubalik isn’t pissing a drop offensively five-on-five, and the Oilers don’t need him for the power play. Your man has five goals in 663 minutes this season at five-on-five, Yamamoto has nine goals in 729 minutes.
I think you need to update your stats. It’s 2021-22.
You missed my point.
I said the Hawks already have a small, skilled forward…Alex DeBrincat who is many miles better than Yamamoto….why would they be interested in a pale imitation?
In fact Kubalik and Yamamoto have identical numbers this season but Kubalik doesn’t get to play with an elite centre every night.
Im pretty sure, if he did, he would blow Yamamoto out of the water.
Kubalik has spent time with Toews, Kane and Debrincat has managed about .6 points per 60 when on the ice with any of them. Yamamoto is double that rate with Leon and triple that rate with McDavid. That’s the best Chicago puts on the ice and he does not really help them much at all does he?
Did you intentionally leave out Kubalik’s almost 2 min per game on the PP when comparing him to Yamamoto.
My goodness, I didn’t realize that Yamamoto had equal stats to a Stone Cold Killer – wow!
No, you moved the chains. Kubalik resembles Kahun, in that he began in the NHL like a house on fire and he’s faded since. Oilers have enough of their own problems without overpaying for another.
Kubalik plays on a team where Dylan Strome is the #1C.
Well that’s just made up.
Sakic on his goaltending:
““I think he’s done a great job for us,” Sakic said of Kuemper, acquired from Arizona last summer. “He had a little injury there and since he’s come back from that he’s played really well for us. He’s found his groove. Coming from a new team, you have to learn tendencies from your back end, and the D has to learn tendencies from Darcy. During this streak we had in January, we played some really good games but also played some games not as well where goaltending made the difference for us.
“And now that Pavel is back and healthy as well and playing really well for us, I think our goaltending is in a good place.’’
https://theathletic.com/3122729/2022/02/10/lebrun-avalanche-gm-joe-sakic-will-need-to-get-creative-to-go-all-in-at-the-deadline/
Who cares? Great for Joe, no one credits you for Colorado’s success or views your opinions anything more then someone that champions whoever is front running at the moment. Your definition of an underdog 🤣🤣🤣
Just the latest bandwagon he’s jumped on. Zero integrity.
I’ve been telling you folks Colorado would be (and is) a powerhouse for years.
Not my fault you can’t keep things straight.
Actually we’ve all known COL would be good for years. And we all knew this without your “help”.
You just like rubbing salt into wounds, screaming into the wind and howling at the moon. And then using your shifting loyalties to pat yourself on the back.
It’s why you’re the Blog Joke.
The only ‘powerhouse’ they are getting close to is the 2007-2011 Sharks. Good in the regular season and no cups!
You’ve been “telling us”? You don’t think pretty much every poster on this board has been accutely aware of the Avs for years and years? Even before they were at the top of the standings.
Everyone here has been well aware for years and years and years that the Avs would be at the top of the standings for the foreseeable future.
Of course, they’ve still done NOTHING in the playoffs (and, no comparing the Oilers poor playoff record to the Avs does NOT mitigate that fact).
It’s like he thinks we are myopic and this is our only source of NHL information. He has to “report” absolutely anything that happens in the NHL because he thinks we live under a bridge like he does.
In 1984 I had Seasons Tickets to the Oil, Row 11 in the Reds, 45 degree angle out from the opponents Goalie (forget the Section number)…
My seat neighbour owned 20 Jerseys, none of them the Oilers of course, and every single game he wore the oppositions jersey and cheered against the Oilers. His year ended on a bit of a sour note.
Similarly, I remember seeing a little old lady at a Muhammad Ali fight go up to him before the match and tell him “I have bought 20 tickets to your fights over the years just so I can watch you lose” and Ali replied “Thank you Ma’am for buying those tickets!”.
When I watch a TV show or movie where I start to actively cheer against the characters to actively die I learned a long time ago just to turn off the channel, it’s way easier on the blood pressure.
The year the Flames played the Canadiens in the Cup Finals, I figured I’d learn which team I actually disliked more. I watched about 10 seconds of the first game and just turned off the TV and declared it a tie.
The only thing you’ve been for years is a legend in your own mind!
You have also been telling us that Mackinnon has stellar leadership qualities compared to McDavid:
https://twitter.com/ryancopyme/status/1495854043025100802?s=20&t=c-VFS2_B3rDil_CPOD0VpQ
It’s funny how you parrot other peoples insights about Colorado as a “I told you so” to everyone, yet your own unique insights about Colorado and their players are most often than not, wrong.
I guess when you are desperate for attention, you will try to take credit for anything that will make you feel better about yourself.
You gotta know Joe is hoping like LT hopes for a turkey dinner
A colleague asked me why Sakic has been so fiesty lately. I’m thinking the pressure is on. He wants it bad, another great season, scary playoffs coming. Sakic lighting candles health holds out, two injury prone goalies
I imagine sphincters are tight in TO as well
Two genius GMs, same problems basically as Dusty Holland
Time will tell, Guts vs Stats. A classic. Not that the Oilers will outdo this year, the other guys weren’t as far behind the 8 ball IMO
Bob: “there’s an element of media in this town that likes to kick the shit out of 22yo defencemen.”
Referred to Petry and the present dialog around Boosh.
The “problem” with Bouchard means that too much was being asked of him this year because of the horrible decision to sign Barrie.
Barrie has to be protected more than Bouchard, so Bouchard struggles.
Some of it stems from not getting reps last year. I’ve been expecting his performance to fade as he has never ground out a full season this long before. And hasn’t played 60 gms in a season since 2018.
And why? Holland says he likes and thinks ‘rangy’ D are key
Or was he copying Sakic and going for ‘skill’ and puck movement?
Head scratcher. Signed Keith, had Bouch, had Rusty, signed the skinny Kooks
Not a very physical group. If ‘rangy’ includes stopping the cycle and keeping guys out of the play
Suggesting Sakic only values skill and puck movement is a bit disingenuous.
He was missing Erik Johnson last season and signed Kurtis MacDermid in the offseason to provide some truculence.
Bouchard should not have to be protected at this stage in his career.
His draft cohorts aren’t.
This is his first full season. How many rookies play with the top D on the team and the most difficult minutes?
Except Noah Dobson (aka the most direct comparable draft cohort), whom you’ve touted loudly and often as being ahead of Bouchard by (the most highly sheltered) deployment, is underwhelming against elites vs Bouchard. Now, and over the course of their nascent careers.
http://puckiq.com/players/8480865?player=8480865&season=all&tier=Elite&group_by=player_season_team
http://puckiq.com/players/8480803?player=8480803&season=all&tier=Elite&group_by=player_season_team
What a shame you didn’t take on the bet we discussed to back up your ‘Rafferty will probably score more points than Bouchard over the next 5 years’ statement.
We were taking about $10 per point difference and Medicins Sans Frontieres could have made good use of your cash…
Is there? Have not seen any media wanting to kick him out of Edmonton. If he makes mistakes like he did against the Wild, I see no reason for people to not call him out. He has his strengths but like godot10 opines, he is not a 1st pairing D in a good team. Give him a couple of years maybe he’ll learn to manage the puck better.
Nice lineup LT
I wrote a detailed response and being not as good on my phone as Woodguy lost it somehow it seems
My take:
Kuemper is 32 next season, the cliff for most goalies. Especially with an injury history like his. Also .919 on the league’s best team.
Seems like asking for more of the same with unreliability and another long goalie contract that begs to underperform. Skinner and the best reasonable UFA or RFA
Keith is most likely back. Niems Willy as 6/7. For me Bro needs to start in the A again, he’s not defensively ready for the bigs. Which is fine but true, and I don’t want a rookie playing RD off handed (one of them would have to)
Trade Barrie to a team that can use his game, which is possible, and go after Rutta from the Bolts. Physical, can play up as he has been, defensive and not a puck square chopper
Despite what some say any GM that should have their job can trade Kassian. Big fast pugilists with good scoring that can play up are hen’s teeth. His cap isn’t awful. Not a good fit for us
Yama I would move regardless. I admire his jam, but it’s token at his stature, and I have had enough moral victories and ‘nice guy tries his hardest’, it’s go time right?
For me small players need top scoring and top skating. Yama is a solid skater but isn’t explosive and I see that as one cause of his mediocre offense playing with who he does
Same as when Nuge is at wing. Nuge’s game works at C best because he has good edges, but his brain makes up for no ‘first step’ and being smaller
Yama also has value, even if it’s dropped post draft. On a team where his skill would be more featured (PP, and he’s 6th banana on the Oilers) he could do better and be a good acquisition
The Krak could use him, he’s a local lad so good for marketing. I think US teams like having US players, they are more relevant to a mostly less interested fan base
Trade stone hands while he still has value.
You never respond the part questioning why/how “stone hands” has more 5 on 5 goals than almost any other non-superstar player on the team.
It is possible some of them would have done better with that much TOI with the top 2 C
As regards the likes of Jesse Puljujarvi, who doesn’t get cited by this poster as having “stone hands”, nope – as we’ve seen by results this season.
What the heck?
9 5v5 goals is tied for 81st in the league. He’s joined by Aho, Tavares and Kopitar among other’s
With even just one win in the next 3 games the Oilers could end up with a decent road trip.
Add a Bettman and I will be delighted.
I just hope they show up fro the Panthers game as I am attending.
Have fun lucky Meanie
They sure deserved better last time they met.
No good free agent goalie is going to sign with the Oilers unless they play the Manwood tight, smart energy game. Good defense will help reel a goalie in, if one is needed.
If the Oil revert back to the style of 5v5 play–or more correctly, the effort and attention–they displayed under Tippett, no quality FA goalie will come here. We will continue to be a goalie graveyard. Gord knows, we’ve buried the two we have more than once.
We will get the marginal good ones, the next tier down, who are looking to catch lightning in a bottle and playoffs etc …and they might be good enough in the short term, plus cheaper. Kind of like what we have now.
But goalies who are in demand and get to dictate where they go… not a chance.
In Woody we trust. Keep these guys playing the right way.
Not a chance? That’s just small brain thinking.
As is the lack of an argument…
The GM has to sell it
If you can’t use the Connor Leo greatness is coming piece not a good job for you. ‘You are the missing piece to the puzzle’
I don’t “hate it” – i just don’t think its a reasonable possibility, in particular with Keith. I don’t believe he’s just going to agree to sit out the year to collect his paycheque – that is “fake retire”.
I think he’ll want to play and might even still be thinking about another NHL contract – could be wrong about the next contract but doubt I am on the wanting to play next season.
Unless Keith has a legit injury that means he can’t play next season, I just don’t think him on LTIR for the year is a reasonable projection.
Well at least now we know what rules LT is willing to break to sign Kane, lol.
The Oilers have announced the hiring of Jeff Gillooly as Assistant Athletic Therapist
NO MORE BUYOUTS PLEASE AND THANK YOU! Between the dead cap space, Oscar (not Holland’s fault) and Ken’s penchant for over-term contracts (Kassian, Smith, Shore etc), the team is in a world of trouble cap wise.
I hate to say it but 2022-2023 may not be much better. IF Holland does not do anything foolish, 2023-2024 will only have the $1.92m (Neal) on the books.
Trade Kassian, Barrie and Yamamoto to somehow get a good shutdown RD for next season and beyond.
Retire Smith and hire him as a goalie coach at $2.2m for one year.
Sign The Bison King, McLeod, Markus, Willy Kegs and Benson
Maybe sign Kane – need to see more and what he wants for a contract.
This
Nobody remains on the roster too bad to trade
Wondering how long you signed Kane for?
who knows what happens with the SJ appeal, but after declaring bankruptcy last year it’s safe to assume that he’ll want to go where the biggest contract offer comes from. Have to think someone will be willing to outbid Edm with either $ or term for him (Seattle?). Love what he has brought to the Oilers, his game has definitely been one of the missing ingredients on this roster.
Isn’t there a decent chance that Kane gets a good chunk of that ‘terminated contract’ back seeing as he was acquitted of ‘further discipline’ though?
Maybe it won’t be all about payday??
Kane gets you to Holloway.
1 year. If that.
If he wants too much – thanks for the memories.
I think you’re overselling Holloway who has not even played 1 NHL game if you think he can replace Kane.
Ideally, you’d want both of them in the team if you want to make any noise in the post season.
Holloway in a year and a half.
Not now and not next year.
Holloway replaces a young winger who isn’t producing with ample opportunities
Kane replaces Kassian
Hopefully for about 2M more
A solid investment
I’m just glad that Nuge has settled into the best role for him. Third line center, defensively responsible with the ability to make a few waves offensively. After these last years of showing he’s not gonna put up points even next to the top two players in the league, he ‘s landed where he belongs and where he can provide the best benefit to the team. The relative expense for a third line center is totally offset by PP1 and PK1 time. Man I’m glad he’s signed. Love me some Nuge.
Total glue/utility guy. You don’t appreciate what he brings until he’s out a few games.
Nuge is 3rd on the team in scoring, 4 points clear of 4th place Hyman.
Nuge is also 68th (points) or 72nd (ppg) among NHL forwards. That is first line production level. That he can be deployed on the 3rd line can be a massive boon for the Oil. Getting Kane helped do 3 lines, but then losing Jesse hurts.
If that’s our defense next year… let’s hope that Klefbom’s ready to go with his new cybernetic shoulder.
Yup
It’s the final year of Kelfbom’s contract next year. If he’s going to attempt a comeback will it be sometime next year or will he wait till the following year. If he does return I say it’s with his buddy Adam in Seattle. Book it!
No kidding.
Firstly, LT’s roster assumes KBomb’s cap hit is on LTIR, although he doesn’t state that, nor does LT actually know whether KBomb will play next year. By all accounts though, the plan is for Klef to attempt it. Whether or not he is successful, no one can know.
The worry is that he successfully plays throughout next season, but he is limited in his abilities owing to the surgeries and his value contract turns into an albatross. But let’s hope for the best.
I was thinking about that too… LTIR doesn’t protect against good health but limited ability.
Just to be safe, we should trade Kelfbom’s LTIR to the Arz for a 2025 2nd round pick.
It would be very risky and difficult to accommodate Klef. Leftorium, Keith etc
Unless he can play RD and solve that problem. Obviously Barrie would have to be moved
If I had to decide today to chooses two RFA’s to sign long term it would be JP and McLeod
Makes one wonder how many of these kids take us to Salary Arbitration,
AND, if we get to tight to the cap, do one of our young stars get offer sheeted?
This off season may be the busiest we’ve seen in a while.
That’s exactly my worry. I think both JP and Yamamoto will be offer sheeted.
Can’t see anyone offer sheeting Holland that’s a card that’s rarely played unless you want a enemy or more likely enemies for life among the G.M Brethren.
Team Finland in Carolina might offer sheet Puljujarvi. Kekelainen might also, if he decides to keep Laine.
Didn’t he pass on him in the draft?
Kekelainen needed a centre more, and Dubois has been the better player so far. So Kekelainen was not wrong. He passed because he picked a better player.
Not a chance.
It’s not Ike offer sheets are all that common.
Normally I would agree with the both of you. Kotkaniemi’s offer sheet was not an outlier. I think this is going to emerge as a legit tactic and just a part of doing business. Ethics, old boys traditions amongst the GMs is going the way of the dodo and Holland is one of them.
There was also some pay back involved as I recall. Signing players to an offer sheet does come with some risk for pay back when your good young player reaches rfa status!
Thank you for the article LT. As usual, a pleasure to read.
I can’t agree with the Kassian buy out. This team already has approx 4.5 million committed to buy outs (Lucic, Sekera, Neal) and Klefbom’s LTIR is coming off the books next year. Adding Kassian to that equation is not conducive to improving the team. That’s a lot of money paying people who are looking to beat you when you play them.
And based on Shore’s TOI under Woodcroft, I think he may be looking at playing for another team next year.
Shore’s team will be the Bakersfield Condors
Kassian has to not be here, next year. Addition by subtraction. Preferably it is by trade or just giving him away.
Kassian doesn’t work hard, and he isn’t capable of playing any system reliably.
Maybe it’s been the fear of Koski being designated as our #1 for the past two years, but I would shoot Smith into the sun. Buy him out, sit him all season, put him LTIR… I don’t care. His attitude is atrocious for a team with young D. How many times have we seen him stare down one his own defenseman after a goal?? Maybe it could forgiven if he was a decent goalie… but he’s not. Number one issue with this team continues to be goalie and RD.
Personally , I’d like to see a fresh outlook at the roster from another perspective , someone other than Ken Holland . Maybe Holland should maintain his POHO title and get somebody else to GM . I would suggest Keith Gretzky and go from there , because Holland needs some help adjusting to the here and now .
I do like LT’s roster for next season . But it’s a lot of wishful thinking . How could Holland achieve something like that ?
Just how many Oil Admin are we prepared to see fall up?
Would Keith Gretzky really be a fresh look considering how long he’s been in the organization?
And what makes you think he’ll be a successful, progressive GM?
He did a good job with the amateur scouting and player development re the AHL. He actually might be a very astute hire. My pick would have been the gentleman Montreal hired.
The Oilers need to build an analytics department more than change the GM.
The Oilers are pretty much “pot committed” to Holland for the duration of the current contracts of McDavid and Draisaitl, rightly or wrongly.
It is the job of the guys in the offices, Wright, Gretzky, and Woodcroft to help Holland add the necessary components of a modern hockey operation.
Would he listen? Gorton mentioned selling the insights to the others is actually the biggest part of the job
Non hockey backgrounds make that hard he said, as Dellow found in Oil County
Man this is some mediocre work from the wingmen. Puljujarvi looks good here, some of that would be as a concern alongside McDavid. Foegele is solid, Kane more dynamic. Yamamoto is disappointing here, as is Nuge.
****************************************************
Yep. As Draisaitl continues to display genius at the C position some wingers unable able to hit a beach ball.
I suspect Yamamoto and Nuge are suited for a 3rd line soft parade path going forward.
The problem is both of those players together do not make an ideal match for the rough and tough physical playoffs.
I am sure Nuge will do fine in the rough and tough playoffs.
He did have 8 points in 4 games against the Hawks in 2020.
The rage is reflected in the 3/5 rating.
Who knew Kuemper is a pending UFA?
Barrie and Yammy for Soucy and Yammy??????? No Tks.
Yammy cannot justify a big payday next year unless he goes on a giant heater. Appleton has not had a good year at all. He can skate but doesn’t play with much toughness at all this year . Soucy is a Lefty and we have Neimelainen, Broberg and Laggeson and even Samorukov that can all battle for the #3 LD spot.
If we are trading Barrie ( which I am all for). , we need a Rightey coming back for sure.
If they really want to move the tiny Yammy, and Kassian is being moved or bought out, they will definitely need a RWer that can play an aggressive style for sure.
Money will be an issue for sure.
I don’t see Jesse getting more than 4 per unless he comes back and goes on a big heater or has a great playoff .
Kane would be nice to resign , but at what cost. 6 mill or 5-5.5 if he loves it here and really wants to stay.
Goalie ? Would love for Holland to get Ville Husso. Not sure he can .
Darcy Kuemper, Be interesting to see if Colorado goes for another goalie at the deadline. That will be a tell tale for Kuemper’s future.
we need a tough Rightey for sure. Manson’s kid would be on my list. No clue if we can make that work.
prying Scott Mayfield out of NJ would be a less expensive option and a good one as well.
Holland has his work really cut out for him, and he will have to do a lot of juggling to get it all done
Goalie
R handed tough Dman
possibly 2 RWers
Re sign Kane ?
Jesse contract
Yammy. ( what to do with)
Trade Barrie , for what
Trade Kassian , for what
Smith. Skinner needs to be here next year. He will get claimed if they try to send him down .
Who will come up from Bakersfield
Forwards
Holloway
Lavoie
Goalie
Skinner or we will lose him on the wire
D men
Broberg or Niemeleinan. Will be here
Busy busy summer for Ken Holland , maybe he gets an RFA or 2 at the deadline?
Barrie > Soucy
Yamamoto > Appleton
Please tell me you got this idea from Peter Chiarelli.
Soucy is cheaper than Barrie.
Appleton is cheaper than Yamamoto.
Cap space has value.
I really like your future roster. I don’t hate it at all. I certainly like all the concepts which includes re-signing Kane, and grabbing Kuemper, and couple of value contracts. You have shed at least one bad contract. I assume some of this costs us future assets which I would agree is very likely.
Keith would have to be on LTIR for the whole season (no?) I think that that is highly unlikely ( is that the “prayer” part?)
But those are details. I really don’t care much about guessing the names. But I like your roster construction ALOT in terms of what needs to happen.
This roster might bring us to “contender” status. But it’s the wave that follows, Bourgault, Holloway, Lavoie, Petrov, Savioe, etc. that acts as the epoxy/hardener that potentially puts us over the top
If Chychrun was a RHD, I’d pay near the asking price.
Oh, and please do buyout Kassian and trade for Ethan Bear.
OR, if we can move Broberg+ for a legit top 4 young RHD, I’d be all over that.
I’d be willing to lose that ^ trade on paper, to improve the team
Broberg +a 1st for for some version of a right handed Broberg.
Does anyone think Broberg can be moved to the right side sometime next year after he settles in? IS that Kenny’s plan? Because the right side looks flawed to me without the addition of a right handed Broberg.
Broberg can play the right side. Niemelainen can play the right side.
Neither is ideal. Barrie out somehow, and a veteran defensively oriented right D in is a necessary move.
Broberg isn’t even an every day NHL player yet – playing the right side in the SHL does not equate to doing it in the NHL, not even close.
Broberg hasn’t even played much right side in the AHL, let alone the NHL.
{projecting his as a right side option for the Oilers in the future is food’s play.
Same with Niemelainen.
Ya, I was speaking about the position that Broberg and Niemelainen can play the right side.
Food’s play is dangerous.
Keith and Smith on this roster next year aren’t an option IMHO. LTIR is probably a good bet for both of these aging men. Great article, well thought out but probably unpopular. I saw someone floating the idea of Barrie plus for Scott Mayfield (RHD) from the Isles. I doubt they will trade him, but he’s big and would help this defense.
Something that should have been obvious to everyone in hockey ops before they were signed.
Someone can’t be on LTIR unless they are actually hurt. And players typically want to play not sit. So you have to have a doctor willing to sign off on forcing them to sit against the player’s will. And the player will go get their own doctor and the PA will still likely grieve.
That’s why LT’s article is straight out of fantasyland.
Now I have no idea how Keith is doing and I was the first to raise the possibility he may never play another game for the Oilers due to his concussion history, but I’m not going to engage in a premature exercise that assumes he’s out when he could be back in the line-up next week.
I mean that’s the implications of what LT has set out above: If Keith spends next year on LTIR, then no Keith for the stretch drive and no Keith for the play-offs this year. That likely means no playoffs or a quick exit, which will also change the scenarios presented above.
The Islanders have no use for Barrie when they have Pulock.
Holloway is a top-9 player all day long. I’d love to have a healthy Holloway on the Draisaitl line, it would ease the pain of not getting full value for Yamamoto.
Just say No to having Shore as the 4C.
“but something well north of $4 million annually is likely if the big Finn finishes around 40 points over 60 (or so) games. That might mean deciding between Puljujarvi and another big piece. I think the Oilers should sign him, the longer the better.”
Agreed. $4m x 6 is like manna from heaven for us.
For JP and Kane to remain on the team will take one of two things (perhaps more than 2) imo You call them a Wing and a Prayer, and I think that is apropos.
The first is, Praying that Skinner elevates to become a legit starter on a value contract.
The second, the Wing part, (which is in part contingent on the first) is Ken Holland (or someone else?) being capable of turning future picks and assets into a) getting rid of bad contracts and b) procuring one or two other “value contracts” with term.
I’m thinking, but stand to be corrected, that Holland must achieve “value” on all 6 RFA re-signings this summer, and that in order to do so , there is a chance that they are all bridge deals, with perhaps the exception being JP?
Having said all that, it’s likely that some bets are going to have to be made. It would be highly beneficial if we could get several of our RFA’s signed to longer term “IF” it’s possible to do so at value prices; While their performance is still pre-peak.
“Kane is a player I believe Holland will pursue over the summer”
Strange things happen when you fall in love.
#AllBetsAreOff
Random thought O’ the Day
It occurs to me that the Toronto Maple Leafs are a better version of the Edmonton Oilers. Significantly better on ice (partly goalering) and “strikingly” better off ice, in the Mgt offices.
The Leafs are where we hope to be a year or two from now. AND YET, the Toronto Maple Leafs, for all the good they have done, are not ranked as among the top 3 teams to win the Stanley Cup.
It emphasizes to me just how difficult it is to both contend for, but even more so win, a Stanley Cup in the modern era, and that doing so without “modernizing” decreases your odds by a factor of two or three (or more?)
LT has asked us often what would satisfy you in terms of being an Oilers fan.
It is becoming clearer and clearer to me that winning ONE Stanley would be “rapturous” and that the probability of that happening is less than 50%, even with the 2 best players in the world.
Wing and a Prayer indeed.
The Leaf’s Achilles Is the D . Possibly the 4th line not gritty enough this year. This playoff will be huge for them. They are probably going to have to play Florida or Tampa in the 1st round. That to me signals another 1st round defeat, which will trigger changes in Toronto .
They are desperately moving chess pieces all over the board right now to free up $$$$ to hopefully add a piece or 2.
Looks like D man Muzzin May have got concussed again last night. Not good at all.
The TML are not ranked as a top 3 team to win the cup because they simply aren’t a top 3 team. Colorado, Tampa and Carolina have all been built better, with more dynamic players who cover a multitude of roles within the game. Leaf players are for the most part one dimensional and their defense is not in the top 10 in my opinion.
I know Dubas gets a lot of kudos from many people but he has made some brutal mistakes along the way, and will likely make more at the coming trade deadline. The recent transaction involving Ritchie was marked by many as a clear win for the Leafs. But let’s remember he (Dubas) signed him to that 2.5 million dollar deal in the offseason. The Nick Foligno trade last year (1st rounder for a 33 year old who gave them 4 whole assists) boggles the mind still.
So even in terms of certain management points, where were the TML’s analytics staff with those acquisitions? Or how about the Marleau signing (6 mill) a few years back. I would submit to you that they shit the bed on those. They have 5 players who are soaking up almost 45 million in cap space with one of them (Tavares) being a terribly regressing contract in terms of performance.
So for all the platitudes the Leaf’s management get for picking up players like Kampf, Bunting, and Spezza or Simmonds, there are others that are a lot more expensive and who have bitten them in the ass in a big way.
Holland gets brow beaten (rightly) for his penchant for vet players. Dubas, with all of resources that they have, has an equally bad record of doing the same thing in my opinion.
The signing of Taveres was not a “modernizing” move. It was fantastically old school and stupid.
It basically hamstrung the effects of all the modernizing and the analytics. The signing forced the Leafs into a shortened contract for Matthews and into overpaying Marner.
They had a better player than Taveres already in Kadri who they could have re-signed for less.
It meant that they were out of the Pieterangelo and Hamilton UFA sweepstakes, so it meant they had no elite D to build around.
The Tavares signing was as catastrophic as the Griffin Reinhart trade for the Oilers.
This is correct.
Many knew it from day one
One aspect the Big Smokers have is a corporate ownership
Not that they have to put bums in seats, but sales are I am sure on the form when performance reviews come around
It is an advantage Katz could exploit if he so desired. Not that the Oilers aren’t a corporation, but Katz calls the shots solely.
A contrarian approach, get the best players across multiple aspects of that and the sales will take care of themselves. Marquee not required
Do you really think Keith has suffered a career ending injury?
Is Carson Soucy a top 4 dman? Is Evan Bouchard?
You are really banking on significant improvement from the young dmen, cause that defense looks like another step backwards to me.
Soucy has fantastic numbers, but even Seattle doesn’t play him in the top-4. He’s 7th by 5v5 TOI/GP and 6th by TOI vs Elites.
Expecting him to make that jump on a team with Cup aspirations is very risky. Another case of the grass being greener on the other side of the fence with Oilers fans.
Keith was blacked out on the ice. Actual cash he receives next year is like $1M. Does he really feel risking serious injury is worth $1M? Talk him into retiring and he can scout the WHL for us.
Projecting career ending injuries and effects because of what we think we saw on the ice in an incident is fraught with complete speculation.
There are seemingly innocuous bumps that lead to months and years of issues and there are players with multiple concussions in the past that are out on the ice and come back in fairly short order seemingly 100%.
So many have retired JJ Khaira multiple times on here.
I’ve never seen anyone invent circumstances to put forth a next-year roster before. I also don’t see the point in nailng down salaries and renewals just over halfway through the season. Are we using something easy to erase or edit, lol?
I guess today’s article is not for me and that’s okay.
To me it almost looked like a proof we are not signing Kane… look at the contortions required if we do.
I do these quite often, although the ebb and flow of the season hasn’t allowed time for it this year (until now). In reading your posts, I feel you are aggravated, and want you to know that was not my intent.
Lol… “I guess today’s article is not for me and that’s okay.”
More of a surprise than anything…
(and it looks like I wasn’t the only one taken aback)
That’s not to say you don’t do good work, LT. Like some other commenters, just thought this one point was questionable and deserved questioning.