According to insider intel, Carter Savoie is poised to sign with the Edmonton Oilers soon. The young sniper delivered two outstanding seasons for the Denver Pioneers and helped his team to a national championship on the weekend. Savoie is probably the best of an impressive group of young scoring wingers who are close to turning pro.
Coincidentally, his brother is part of the 2022 draft pool. Matthew Savoie plays for the Winnipeg Ice of the WHL, and ranks No. 1 on the Lowetide list of talent from the western league this year.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Evander Kane’s scoring prowess and what he brings the Oilers
- New DNB: Connor McDavid’s Hart case
- Lowetide: Oilers signing Noah Philp latest connection with Golden Bears
- DNB: Dylan Holloway call-up? Jay Woodcroft extension? Zack Kassian trade? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every prospect in the Oilers system
- Lowetide: Finding Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ wingers elusive challenge for Oilers
- DNB: Oilers player poll
- Lowetide: Making the final call on the Oilers 2017 draft
- Lowetide: How many more college players will Oilers sign this spring?
- DNB: Oilers fend off Blues but will need to fix defensive woes
- Lowetide: Strong March puts Oilers in position for top-3 finish in Pacific Division
- DNB: Connor McDavid at 100 points
- Lowetide: Early look at Oilers free-agent targets for 2022 offseason
- DNB: Why Ryan McLeod’s best outing matters so much to the Oilers
- Lowetide: The legend of Oilers prospect Matvei Petrov continues to grow
- Lowetide: Are Oilers approaching a crossroads with Zack Kassian?
- DNB: Should Oilers budget for Evander Kane beyond this season?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2022 draft strategy takes shape after trade deadline
- Lowetide: 7 Condors who could impact Oilers’ fortunes in the playoffs
- DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi, as a player and person, became perfect fit for Oilers
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHL 2022 DRAFT
Savoie will go top 10, maybe in the first five picks. Conor Geekie could go top-10 overall. Denton Mateychuk is a LHD and my guess Edmonton would jump at the chance to draft him. Scott Wheeler: “He’s already a plus-level skater, which helps him escape pressure with his feet, walk the line, and steer opposing players into tough spots despite not being the biggest guy. He’s the definition — or close — of the modern defenceman.” I have several prospects higher than the folks at Central Scouting do, including Jagger Firkus who might be around when Edmonton chooses in the first round but will probably be gone by the fifth round. Michael Milne and Reid Schaeffer may not get drafted but their numbers warrant consideration. Braden Holt and Chase Howard are two goalies who look good, but I haven’t slotted them in to the ranking yet.
LOWETIDE 2021 WHL LIST
RW Dylan Guenther, Edmonton Oil Kings. Great skater, has pure goal-scoring ability.RC Logan Stankoven, Kamloops Blazers 5.07, 165. Demon on the forecheck, plus skills.G Sebastian Cossa, Edmonton Oil Kings. Giant had a .941 save percentage this season.- LW Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors 6.01, 196. Big PF with plus skill.
LD Carson Lambos, Winnipeg Ice A big man already (6.01, 200) he is a fine skater.RC Ryder Korczak, Moose Jaw Warriors A top play-making center in the WHL.LW Conner Roulette, Seattle Thunderbirds He has good hands/speed.LD Olen Zellweger, Everett Silvertips He is undersized (5.09, 165) but very skilled.LD Nolan Allan, Prince Albert Raiders. A big (6.02, 190) D with good speed.LW Sean Tschigerl, Calgary Hitmen. Two-way winger aggressive in all areas.RW Jake Chiasson, Brandon Wheat Kings. Good size, improved offensively.- LW Owen Pederson, Winnipeg Ice. Big winger with goal-scoring ability.
LC Liam Dower-Nilsson, Frolunda. Two-way center with some offensive spark.RW Simon Knak, Portland Winterhawks. Prolific junior scorer, January 2002.
Eric Alarie had a fine season, posting 22-32-54 in 65 games for the Warriors. He’s clearly skilled enough to project as a pro player and has the size scouts look for, so there’s something I’ve missed. He scored 18 of his 22 goals at even strength, 26 of his 32 assists in the same discipline. Probably available in the fifth round, he’s a teammate of Mateychuk maybe Tyler Wright can get them both. Owen Pederson is a player I ranked in both 2020 and 2021, and he’s worth a late pick this year, too. I think he fits the ‘Wright Profile’ a little closer than Alarie. I’ll run this series for OHL, QMJHL, USHL, NCAA, plus Sweden, Finland, Russia and “The Hinterlands” this spring. Apologies if it’s boring, much of this is normally done in the back room and then I present it a little cleaner than today. The aggressive GP totals in these important months leaves me no choice.
CARTER SAVOIE
If young Savoie does in fact sign with the Oilers, the left-wing depth chart for next season gets crowded. We don’t know about Evander Kane, but Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway and others (Devin Shore, Tyler Benson is RFA and could return) could be in the mix. Scott Wheeler at The Athletic posted an impressive report on him, well worth a read.
HOLLAND AND THE DRAFT
I think we should assume Holland will trade the first-round pick for a lower first and a third ala last year. Edmonton currently owns picks 20, 148, 180 and 212. My guess is No. 20 is dealt for Nos. 27 and 94 (or something similar). As for what Tyler Wright will be searching for, well, he and his scouting staff have done an exceptional job with limited picks in his two seasons at the helm. Carter Savoie, Tyler Tullio, Maxim Berezhkin and Matvei Petrov are all quality forward prospects taken in the fourth round or later.
RYAN FANTI
The young college goalie made his pro debut and won the game this weekend. Fanti allowed five goals on 41 shots, and gave a great account of himself after a tough start for the entire team. You can evaluate goalies any way you wish, but I would suggest taking the rest of this season’s performance with a grain of salt. Everything Fanti experiences now is brand new, it’s good for him but mostly as preparation for the fall. That’s the time to measure the man.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy show this morning, after a stunning weekend of sports. We begin at 10, on TSN1260. Jason Gregor will join us at 11, and we also plan to have a Raptors guest (aiming for Josh Lewenberg) and might have Wheeler on some time this week. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Hi LT or any Red Deer Rebels followers or prospect watchers. Any opinions/thoughts on 50 goal guy Ben King?
He has been an exceptional scorer for them since his arrival in 2019. During these past 3 seasons he has 73 goals in 133 games.
#2 Undrafted Arshdeep Bains has 65 goals in 152 games and recently signed an NHL contract.
#3 Josh Tarzwell had 39 goals in 79 games (2 seasons)
#4 Jace Isley has 22 goals in 135 games.
Wow, I missed lots today. I wonder what I’ll be coming back to next week, lol.
For the record, I have been a huge fan of Jesse since day 1 and I have never wavered. I always thought any trade would be a losing proposition and it goes to show that Holland, for all his faults has an eye for talent. JP will be an important if not key component of the Cup champs,
it is too bad that the vocal socials don’t recognize that, and if they don’t now, they likely never will. Too bad for them, they are missing out.
Jesse has a motor that never quits. The Bison King is one of the most enjoyable players to cheer for that the Oilers have had in a long time. He was mismanaged at the start of his career … he should have spent another season (or two) in Finland before coming over. He then should have spent some time percolating in the AHL before being promoted to the big show. But management wanted to justify the Hall trade by rushing Jesse into the NHL before he was ready … not the kid’s fault, though I would question whether his agent steered him in the right direction, as well.
He’s going to work on his shooting … you can just feel his frustration through the TV … he knows his shot needs to be better, and I fully expect he’s going to put the work in this summer. Next season, he blows up in a big way.
People forget, but Hyman was also a play-driving winger, who struggled to cash chances earlier in his career. He turned out fine and Jesse’s going to be a beast when he finally puts it all together.
But I suspect his agent knows this as well, and will push for a bridge contract this summer. Then all the internet cognoscenti will blow up when he’s signed to that bridge contract.
Same as it ever was … never a dull day as an Oilers fan. That’s why I love this team.
Bison King forever.
Although I’d love to see JP signed to a team-friendly long-term contract, going with a year bridge might actually be better for the Oilers next year. With Keith’s contract ending in 2023 ($5.538M), Smith’s ending at the same time ($2.2M), the Lucic retention (.75M) and Sekera buyout ($1.5M) finished, there will be money to sign Puljujarvi long-term at that time that isn’t there this summer.
Of course, Bouchard will need a new contract in 2023 too. But the point remains – a long-term contract for Puljujarvi is much easier for the Oilers to swing in 2023 than it is in 2022.
Hadn’t much considered a 1 year bridge (more 2 vs long) but this is a great point.
Dear HH and OP:
You are both timed out. Until I receive confirmation from each of you that you will NEVER RESPOND to each other in this forum again, you’re banned.
IF you do promise to NEVER RESPOND to each other in this forum again, and then respond, you’re banned forever.
Signed,
The Management.
Love to see the Vegas prop bet odds on this one. Who caves first? Who caves and then “responds” first? Who creates the fastest second account to be able to respond to the “no response” rules. Who’s had enough and will never be back? No drama here ….. move along folks.
Damit, what did I miss?
I’ll bet a C-note straight up that O.P is much weaker than H.H and blinks first. Like the Rodney Dangerfield movie “Easy Money”
Now who’s going to get me all my Twitter updates?!
Dear The Management,
Thank you
Why don’t you just ban the troll?
I’ve thought of it, but enjoy your comments too much.
Burn!
😂
Coach Chaulk confirms lower body injury for Holloway – day to day – hoping for next week. That timeline is a bit longer than I heard the other day but good to know its LBI.
Philp should arrive soon, they will get him some good practice time and in to system play – will get him in the lineup “when he’s needed”.
I don’t expect him to play much if some of the injuries heal.
Thanks for the pre-banning Condors update.
Even with Doughty injury other than the schedule loss night against the Avs the Kings are better than every team they play (Avs only playoff team game left)
Vegas could easily lose their next 3 games and still have dates with Capitals St. Louis Dallas and their one easy matchup is on the second of road trip b2b nights against Chicago
Are you suggesting Vegas had a more difficult strength of schedule?
Pierre Lebrun: Doughty was trying to see if he could give it a go and avoid surgery until after the playoffs but obviously that just wasn’t possible. Tough blow for him and the Kings.
==
So Doughty WAS trying to get back into the lineup and the plug was pulled. I am hopeful we can discuss it without things getting personal.
Thanks.
Thats exactly what the highly regarded Kings reporter Lisa Dillman said yesterday.
So that leads into what the Kings management is thinking as the surgery could have waited a week or three.
It would seem they are looking long term as opposed to trying to make a run this season.
Did she? I responded to your post and nicely asked for where you got that info given it is different than everything else reported.
You posted many times after that request but didn’t respond or provide the source.
Seemed (and seems) telling.
Still don’t see any source of actual source here – would love to see Lisa’s report.
Man I hope LA can hold off Vegas.
LA without Doughty would be a great warm up series for the battle of Alberta.
especially if Vegas takes a chunk out of Calgary en route.
After 3 straight losses looking like Blake is waving the white flag.
They’ve exceeded expectations but Blake is a very patient man and is likely looking at the long term since the Kings are not legitimate contenders at this time.
The GM is giving up on the season with 8 games left and his team still in a playoff season?
Lol, what?
I am sure the King’s Owner is just tickled about Blake’s ingenious plan to injure Doughty and miss the playoffs. That’s what they call 4D chess.
The Kings owners are worth multi billions and actually own many other NHL arenas.
They don’t think short term.
Yeah.
Why push a key player to try and return from injury early when you know you aren’t a true contender?
Seems pretty enlightened to me.
You think the GM would have pushed an injured player to return if his team hadn’t lost 3 straight? No, that doesn’t sound very enlightened.
In any case, it seems far more likely it had become clear Doughty simply wasn’t going to be able to return, so they accepted the inevitable.
Tough blow for the team, but presumably the players themselves have known the severity for a while.
he knew they weren’t contenders and didn’t go shopping at trade deadline
But Doughty injury changes nothing
Vegas would like be the 2nd wild card and play Colorado, I would think.
There is a clear path for Vegas to take 3rd in the Pacific.
With a hot Demko the Canucks will not fold. Vegas will be lucky to get 3 out of a possible 6 points on this 3 game road trip.
Vegas has its fate in its own hands.
For the first time all season, they will have complete lineup playing.
Will be fascinating to watch.
After the initial adrenaline filled first game it usually takes a half-dozen games to get up to speed especially if it’s been months since your last game.
Seems to be spreading like wild fire, it’s the spring of crazy narratives.
This is big if Kings can hang on to 3rd in the Pacific
Likely a white flag from the Kings.
They’ve exceeded expectations to this point but Rob Blake is very patient and is most likely assessing the long term implications while acknowledging the Kings are not a real contender this season.
This is an absolutely bananas read on the situation. Ya, I am sure Blake is just tickled to lose his best defenceman while his team is fighting for a playoff spot. Good grief!
Not to mention, the business implications of missing/making the playoffs.
Someone has been taking some creative writing classes!
So, while in a playoff position with 10 games to go, all of a sudden Blake has “pulled the plug” and BOOM surgery already done.
All this patience but yet can’t hold on to see how the next few games play out?
Has Blake not seen his team’s schedule?
Honestly. Can you two cut it out? Lisa Dillman tweeted early March he was skating, I didn’t see anything after that. It’s gone. PLEASE stop wasting people’s time with your juvenile behaviour.
Kings Doughty to have surgery…..out for season
OP beat me to the punch
Lucy pulled the football away from poor Dough-boy. Good grief.
In regards to JP, he just does so many things really really well, we can wait for the scoring to come. And it will. For some reason the game hasn’t slowed down for him yet with the puck on his stick. but it will. In the mean time he should be a good value contract for a few years.
If i am a betting man (and I am) his value will be exponentially more in the playoffs due to his size and speed.
That doesn’t mean that he is not tradeable. For instance, JP would be a nice centerpiece in a trade to Philly for C. Hart and Provorov. We have a whole crop of fwds coming in waves Savoie, Holloway, Lavoie all maybe next season followed by Petrov and Bourgault in a couple years.
We have to stop being over attached to players, everyone minus McD and Drai are tradable for the right value.
Finally, everyone is kidding themselves if they had to chose between Kane and JP and would take JP (I like JP). Kane is in the win now window. JP is a fan favorite but is in the win later window. Kane is a 35-40 goal power forward on this team who excels at all situations. AND we might be able to get him on a value contract for the next 3-4 years.
I’ve seen Lavoie’s name included 2-3 times today in the list of forward prospects coming as soon as next season and i think he is a great example of why its important to be cautious on projecting the straight line development of prospects to the NHL – in particular those coming from amateur leagues.
Lavoie was absolutely on fire for 3 weeks or so this season – other than that, he has been HIGHLY disappointing, an absolute non-factor in the vast majority of his games including a stretch of zero points in his last 10 games (with few shots and, to eye, creating very little). He’s still on his ELC for another year so tons of time but he’s nowhere close and he’s becoming a 50% bet for a real NHL career, at best (in my opinion).
Savoie, Tulio, Petrov, Chiasson, etc – I wouldn’t count on the NHL for any of them in the next few years. For sure, the likes of Savoie could slide in with little development time, you never know and it happens, but its unlikely and shouldn’t be counted on.
———-
In the other point, JP helps win now just like Kane, with a different but important impact on the game nightly.
JP provides value today. Maybe not as much as Kane, but that could change easily within two years.
Here you go, Holland Tunnel
https://twitter.com/NHL_Sid/status/1513582004746350600
Chart in the tweet link
Replying to
@NHL_Sid
Ever since Woodcroft’s hiring, Edmonton has outscored the opposition 18-2 in goals with JP on-ice. 97, 29, and 93 all improve in numerous facets alongside JP, even in terms of simple Points/60. If you can’t see that, you’re simply ignoring actual facts and portraying bias. 🙂
https://oilersnation.com/2022/04/10/five-edmonton-oilers-players-that-have-improved-the-most-under-jay-woodcroft-and-dave-manson-and-the-one-that-still-needs-to-improve/
Puljujarvi’s results under Woodcroft have been spectacular. Ever since February 10, at even-strength, Puljujarvi ranks first on the team in:
With Puljujarvi on ice, Edmonton has out-scored the opposition by an incredible ratio of 18-2 under Woodcroft, which is outstanding. The puck is predominantly in the offensive zone with Puljujarvi on the ice, and seldom in the back of Edmonton’s net.
Did you control this chart for bias?
Puljujarvi is a great two way player for sure.
Hopefully his lack of finishing ability allows the Oilers to get him on a cheaper long term contract.
JP at 7-8 years for $5 (AKA the Joel Eriksson Ek) will set the Oilers up for years to come.
So what you’re saying is… people like him cause he’s cheap.
I spoke to what can be reasonably concluded from this type of analysis in my first post today.
Sorry if that’s not the mic drop moment you were hoping for.
It was a response more to your later posts than your first post, and also just to provide context for the contingent of LT posters who may not be following along on twitter.
You reduced your own argument in subsequent posts to “Jesse is cheap”.
I completely accept there could be a better RW for McDavid or even Drai for that matter, but goal shares in the 60% I am assuming is elite production or close to it.
And the argument isn’t just reduced to “he is cheap”, it’s “he is driving elite results but isn’t scoring himself, so he won’t cost as more, please don’t disregard his value and sign him long-term”.
It’s like the reverse Barrie.
So Jesse should most definitely play with RNH (biggest bank for the buck!)
Yeah it’s pretty incredible. I’ve been meh on Nuge 5v5 for years, other than the brief Nuge-Drai-Yamo hot spell, this must be the best numbers of his career 5v5 with Jesse.
He was actually higher with Yamamoto and almost equal with Drai in 2020. Have to be careful with small sample sizes as well, as Nuge/Jesse have only played 60 minutes together this season. Last season, they played 350 minutes together and Nuge was a 1.04 p/60, but most of that was with Nuge on McDavid’s left side and Jesse on the right, and something just wasn’t clicking especially for Nuge.
Of course those other samples are with Nuge as the LW. This small sample might be the best he’s had while being the primary center.
Thanks for posting this chart. It begs the question… where can we find 2 more Jesse’s??
I’d like 4 more personally, cant have enough Jesse Puljujarvi’s in your line up.
Get good players, keep good players and spend time arguing about the actual issues.
Hyman on PP1 over Kane or JP.
Shore playing behind both Kass and Arch.
Mike Smith’s gaping 5 hole.
https://www.tsn.ca/oilers-move-into-top-10-in-nhl-power-rankings-1.1781735
Jumping into a top-10 spot are the Edmonton Oilers, who move from 11th to seventh on our list. The Oilers are hitting their stride at the right time of year, posting a 2-0-1 record last week. Edmonton is now four points clear of the Los Angeles Kings for second spot in the Pacific.
Our playoff odds list Edmonton with a 98 percent chance of making the postseason and a 61 percent chance of facing the Kings in the first round. After dropping their first matchup of the season against the Kings, the Oilers have beat their division rival three straight games.
Interesting that it’s written by SportLogiq staff for TSN. I didn’t realize that.
To summarize the primary argument for Jesse Puljujarvi in the Top 6: He’s cheap.
LOL. Amazing.
What about a hard cap league do you not understand. If one can get an elite player who is underpaid because he facilitates the finishing rather than does the finishing himself, that is a HUGE edge in value for money in a hard cap league.
The danger is that someone will offer sheet Puljujarvi.
Very low chance of that happening. Offer sheets generally aren’t used. Other than the Aho-Kotkaniemi fiasco, the last offer sheet was signed in 2013 (Ryan O’Reilly).
They younger NHL GM’s are watching what is happening in the NFL and NBA and want to get in on all the fun.
Elite? I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
Jesse is an elite hockey player without the puck. With the puck, only average.
How open minded of you.
Fair enough. Rather than ‘primary,’ I should have summarized it as the most frequently made argument. Because it is. Almost every post pimping for him in the top 6 concludes with a variation of ‘he’s a value contract, we can’t afford better, cap compliancy is HARD, etc. A pretty defeatist mindset to say the least. You certainly don’t see TBay and Vegas thinking like this.
It’s unclear to me why he can’t be a value contract playing on the third line but I’m sure that insight will be discovered in time.
Edmonton’s top 4 forwards for the next few years will include McDavid, Draistaitl, Nuge, and Hyman. If they could keep Kane, that would be 5. Keep Jesse, and maybe he is the 6th. Dadanov is the 6th highest paid forward on Vegas, and Jesse is performing at his level. They are going have to get rid of Dadanov and Reilly Smith, if not sooner, by the offseason to be cap compliant. On Tampa, after the big 3, this season they have Palat, Cirelli and Kilhorn making between 4.5-5.5 million and Jesse is producing at the same level as Pilat and Cirelli.
It is interesting you would list the two that could briefly load up with a bunch of forwards only because of some luck and technicality in the cap calculations.
There is no way to read through this thread and honestly come to that conclusion, really?
The argument is that the Oilers and McDavid, with Puljujarvi on the ice, score more goals and give up more goals than without Puljujarvi on the ice.
In many cases Jesse is not getting the goals or points on the goals but he is contributing to the goal being scored in relation to gaining possession of the puck, contributing to the scoring chance creation, etc.
Of course Jesse needs to bare down and “finish better” but its not clear a “better finisher” would be better on the line as those scoring chances would not be there to finish at the same rate.
Jesse has show to help whatever linemates he plays with – of course, he could help a 3rd line, he’s done it recently. Mabye, at some point, there will be another winger in for the top six that also helps improve the McDavid minutes and Jesse can shuffle around and help another line.
Sometimes the truth is just that the truth. The team is tight on cap space and will have to move some bodies to re-sign JP and Yamamoto. Would it be nice to have another goal scorer in the top six. Absolutely. Like my new truck it just won’t fit in budget wise.
No JP isn’t the best RW in the league for Connor, Matthews is
But the top 6 is close to capped out, do you acknowledge that?
Holland HAS to find value contracts because he’s issued most of the anchor player high caps he can, and he has a very large one with Connor, without some cap juggling he sucks at
He can fit one more forward in the 5-6 range and maybe a bridge, but that should go to Kane or you’re plugging a hole while drilling another
I like JP because he’ll not be too expensive, AND he’s an elite complimentary player.
He’s an elite player, I’ll say it again, he’s elite at what he does, elite players are the best ones to have
Your point doesn’t make sense to me, it’s ignoring too much, which seems the opposite of what you’re trying to get across
You can’t fudge the LTIRs Bolts and Vegas used to have more than their fair share
You can fudge the return to play. The Oilers aren’t in that position, as most teams aren’t because their players aren’t currently broken
The correct term for those you called defeatist is in reality pragmatic! I do agree that a GM’s goal should be to ice the best team he can! You seem to be unable to grasp the reality that there are limits due cap restraints!
I think there are some fine thoughts put forward by HT, but also believe it’s kind of moot to point out the failings of the blog “hive mind” as a group. It’s been YEARS since anyone but the blog’s author defended anyone in his example, and although I maintain Pouliot’s injuries derailed him and that the organization was completely blind to Teemu Hartikainen’s potential, that isn’t a shared opinion by the contributors to this blog.
Rather, Jesse Puljujarvi is an established NHL player, and the best option for 1RW. So, as much as he isn’t Marian Hossa, he also clearly isn’t Marc Pouliot or Teemu Hartikainen.
“To summarize the primary argument for Jesse Puljujarvi in the Top 6: He is a value contract who increases the scoring chances of those around him”
Fixed it
I read LT’s daily thread from oldest to newest, including your posts about JP and other peoples thoughtful posts about JP.
To summarize your evolution through this thread:
From: lets have an open minded discussion about JP, I think people are overvaluing him because he was drafted by the org
To: you all have made great posts about JP being a great contributor to the team, but instead of considering these points and potentially having to change my view of the player, I will instead reduce your points down to JP being good just because he’s cheap and that’s why people like him.
The ‘conversation’ definitely has a bit of an echo chamber feel to it.
JP is the same as the old saying chaos equals cash. How much value do you put on the big galoots forechecking. Or in front of the net. He is always creating chaos
I don’t think the echo chamber analogy is valid in this case. An echo chamber is when people like to be in an environment where other people’s opinions reflect their own.
This blog favours the math side of things, where the math likes the player and the math shows how valuable JP is on the ice.
So what’s your end game here? Do you view the stats supporting JP as an opinion and you are trying to open up all of the math nerds eyes on this blog to see that your opinion of JP is more valid than the math shows?
Cause it seems like you are getting into axe grinding territory, here.
I’ve covered this in my first post. The math supports a narrower context hypothesis than the broader context it is being used for by many.
Extreme value would be more fitting!😉
No, that’s your summary to justify your flailing goal posts.
The lack of finish with his outstanding underlying numbers scream, Oilers need to get him signed now for as cheap and long as possible.
Or else, a smart team will come in and pay him handsomely. No longer making the player cheap while leaving the Oilers sorely lacking an outstanding young right winger that’s not yet entered his prime, that makes his linemates all much better with than without.
What a depressing thread.
. . . and effective.
Finished the sentence for you. 😉
This much I know
JP is one of the best “Value Contracts” on the current roster.
I don’t think a long term contract is in JPs future. While his underlying numbers are good, his scoring numbers are still shy, especially with all his minutes with McDavid. A long term deal favourable to the Oilers probably starts with a 4 or 5 since – that’s what he’s worth at his current level and accounting for some long term progression.
JPs agent would likely advise against signing a deal like that. If JP figures out how to finish, he could easily pop over a bridge deal and get something long term at 7-8M. Especially with the cap going up. It’s in his interest to sign another, short term deal.
I think on a 2 year deal he would end as a RFA again with a chance to sign him long term again.
I predict 2 years – $5M
*in the league. FTFY.
As for the question about perhaps starting Bouchard on PP1 over Barrie.
My fears over Bouchard’s “Rookiness” come playoff time were alleviated somewhat in hearing that Jason agrees with you that Bouchard is capable, but took the view that he preferred Bouchard’s minutes be carefully managed (being a virtual rookie) including special teams minutes, so as to not put any additional pressure on the young man.
My view is, it’s certainly nice to have options if and when injuries occur.
Great segment at 11am LT. Thank You.
What I heard Jason say was
All things being equal, he would start Koskinen.
Would not ride one horse all the way.
Might consider a home and away split.
Smiths value as a puck mover is undeniable.
I concur.
The one thing that nags at me is Woody’s (and in the past Tippets) resolve to keep the starter in net even when things aren’t going well.
I believe it is because:
!) Each Goalie is good at blocking out the last goal
2) Neither guy likes being pulled (can endure the pain of multiple goals against)
3) Coach does not want to rattle either guys confidence with the pull
All of that (if true) is ok with me in the regular season. But in the playoffs things happen fast(er). In the playoffs, I would prefer to see the goalie pulled after two bad goals or three unlucky goals.
#ChangeTheMomentum
#SettleThingsDown
I think they’d need to clear apx $4MM to activate Stone.
I’m not sure what they’d do – a crazy post-deadline trade or move another big contract to LTIR but I’m curious how this plays out.
If he’s that close, I can’t imagine they’ll be able to keep him on LTIR for the last 10 games and then have him play game 1. The league has been clear they will be “looking at” LTIR transactions post-deadlie.
https://tenor.com/view/canada-watching-window-eat-chips-gif-16007026
Thank you!
Cap Friendly shows them with $5 million in cap space but with 14 forwards on the roster.
If they add Stone’s $9.5 million they could drop 2 players from the forward roster (Rondbjerg and Leschyshyn are on emergency loan) could be sent back to the AHL clearing another $1.6 million.
They also have 3 goaltenders on the roster and could send Logan Thomson back to Henderson.
It appears they would then need to find about $3 million in cap space.
They might be able to pull this off if they run with the minimum 20 man roster for the rest of the regular season.
They certainly have a plan, and if Kings fade out no problem
Dinks
If the Oilers draft another LD I’ll puke
The Leftorium must live on!
PLEASE NO!!!!!
gary lawless Retweeted
Ben Gotz
@BenSGotz
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6m
Mark Stone is at practice today in a third-line jersey. Pacioretty and Stephenson are also in blue.
For sure he will help the depth chart but, of course, we don’t know if he’ll need 0, 20, 80 or 150 AHL games before being NHL ready.
For me, even having watched quite a bit of him in Denver over the last few season, and seen his development over that time, I have no idea at how fast he may “arrive”.
With Holloway, I had a fairly good sense of how long until he’d arrive (injury muddied that water though) but Savoie is a tougher one to judge – at least for me.
Stomach issue for Jesse. He’s going on the trip.
Here is hoping he’s well enough to play tomorrow night.
Too much Lohikeitto?
Fish cream soup….. that could do it……
Probably “sick” of reading the fighting on Oilers Social Media – he knows how effective he is on the ice and how much he helps the top line and should stay. He also knows he needs to be able to bear down and bury more opportunities and than he’s slumping in that regard.
A correct usage of quotation marks!
Are you sure?
Power and Brink about to make their NHL debuts. I don’t have any thoughts that Savoie is at the level of these two, he’s tiers below as a 20 year old prospect (Power in a tier of his own) but I’m getting anxious for the Savoie signing. For me, he’s an AHL option this season but I’m anxious to get the pro development started.
If we don’t here anything in the next day or two, I’ll be thinking he’ll be heading back to school for next season. I don’t think we’ll get there but tick tock (in my mind at least).
If they had lost the national championship game I could see him going back for another kick at the can. But now with the win, the choice is really play two more years and become a UFA or get it started now. Don’t see the point in one more year.
I didn’t see Matty’s piece from last night indicating the org is going to give Carter a few days to enjoy the win before talking business. He must have spoken to Holland as had this quote:
“I haven’t really talked to him, but we’ll see what Carter’s thinking and I’ll let him know what I’m thinking this week,” said Oilers general manager Ken Holland. “It’s hard to find people who can score.
http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/oilers-notes-holland-to-give-carter-savoie-time-to-celebrate-before-discussing-options/wcm/5deaa8f7-a160-4ef9-9801-b5343611b925
Holland. “It’s hard to find people who can score.”
That’s the money quote. Carter Savoie has an NHL equivalency of 24 goals, 22 assists, and 46 points. IF he were able to jump from NCHC and keep all of his equivalency he would be 4th in goals on the Oilers. That’s worth trying out before the playoffs to see if he can score and keep up defensively. There’s not a lot of time to figure things out, though. As you say, “tick tock”.
I do’t think NHLe is equatable to NHL production in the vast majority of cases – for player in the prospect age range.
That’s a great NHLe for Savoie but I don’t think a signing in the next few days is with the intent to help the NHL roster during the course of the current season/playoffs (or likely next year either).
I would say that most of the data for NCAA to NHL equivalency is in Savoie’s age or older, so by virtue of being a player who has more improvement ahead than most of the players who have made the jump from NCAA, he could be ahead of the curve rather than behind it
I do’t think NHLe is equatable to NHL production in the vast majority of cases – for player in the prospect age range.
That’s a great NHLe for Savoie but I don’t think a signing in the next few days is with the intent to help the NHL roster during the course of the current season/playoffs (or likely next year either).
Oilers Goals/82 Pace (Savoie’s NHLe)
C
Leon Draisaitl 57
Connor McDavid 48
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 15
Ryan McLeod 11
W
Evander Kane 39
Zach Hyman 29
Carter Savoie 24
Kailer Yamamoto 21
Jesse Puljujarvi 18
Warren Foegele 12
Derek Ryan 10
I certainly wouldn’t bump Puljujarvi or Yamamoto down for him at this stage, but he might be a good fit with Nugent-Hopkins and Foegele or Ryan.
Kane / McDavid / Puljujarvi
Hyman / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
Savoie / Nugent-Hopkins / Perlini (Ryan)
Foegele / McLeod / Ryan (Kassian)
Is still like to see Perlini get a shot again. I thought he performed well when called upon and I didn’t see glaring holes on the defensive side of his game.
Pardon me. I clicked a wrong button on Dobbers NHLe calculator… Savoie’s NHLe is 21g, 21a, 42pts. Still tied for 5th forward and 3rd winger with Yamamoto. Still very impressive.
With all the talk about potentially splitting the goalies in the playoffs (which for the record, I am for), I was curious if any other team has won the cup with a goalie tandem in the playoffs:
2016-17: Fleury and Murray split the games pretty evenly, however it was Fleury who stepped up and won 2 playoff series when Murray was injured. When Fleury struggled, he was pulled from Game 3 in the conference finals, and Murray played out the string to win the cup. Not a traditional split tandem.
2006-2008: Three cup winning goalies (Giguere, Ward and Osgood) originally started on the bench or otherwise not playing. Ward and Osgood usurped the starter, while Bryzgalov played three games with Jiggy on personal leave. Once in the net, they played the entirety of their teams’ games.
1984: Fuhr played the majority of games that year, however occasional injuries led to Andy Moog taking over for 4 complete games.
1980-83: It would appear that Chico Resch and then Roland Melanson would spell Billy Smith occasionally throughout the playoffs. Typically 2-3 games through the playoff run.
1972: Eddie Johnston and Gerry Cheevers split the games almost evenly. 7 for Johnston, 8 for Cheevers. Eddie Johnston’s .936 save% was sparkling, especially considering the era.
1969: Rogie Vachon and Gump Worsley split the games almost evenly, 8 for Rogie and 7 for Gump. Let me also state that Jacques Plante lost the cup with a sparkling .950 save percentage, and finished second to Rogie Vachon’s ridiculous .953
1967: A famous case of a tandem, perhaps the first, where the two veterans Terry Sawchuk and Johnny Bower would switch between one another to rest and prepare for the next game. Sawchuk played the majority of the games, however that was due to a late injury to Bower, it was well-documented that Sawchuk tried twice to take a night off but Bower needed him to take over for one reason or another.
Some other instances I can remember off the top of my head: I remember Gilles Gratton and Gerry Cheevers splitting time due to a famous story of Don Cherry trying to rest Cheevers before game 3 of a best of 5, and Gratton broke out into hives. Despite being a beer and hot dog in, Cheevers pulled his equipment on, told Grapes not to worry, and made 37 saves on 38 shots to sweep the Islanders.
Ultimately the conclusion: It doesn’t really happen… and hasn’t happened in the way we might envision it since at least 1969.
Please feel free to let me know of any other famous goalie tandems.. I mainly looked at Cup winners and occasionally cup finalists, but that’s a lot to sift through in one sitting 🙂
In 1972 both finallists, the Bruins & the Rangers, had full-fledged tandems. Gerry Cheevers & Ed Johnston won 27 games each for the Bruins that year, while each of Ed Giacomin & Gilles Vilemure recorded 24 wins for the Rangers.
In the finals each of the 4 goalies started & finished 3 games apiece.
I was surprised by this actually. As a younger fan, all you ever really hear about is how Cheevers was the Bruin’s goalie and Johnston was a good, serviceable backup. You never hear about how he was Cheevers’ equal in 1972, and at a fairly advanced age.
There are many ways to win a Cup
Absolutely, just that no cup winning goalie has had fewer than 80% of their team’s wins since 1972. Not saying that it can’t happen, just that it hasn’t happened in the past.
Great Post.
I think it will be Koskinen starting. Smith in Relief when needed. But it’s so close the opposite wouldn’t surprise me.
What would definitely surprise me is if we get past round 1 and both goalies don’t see multiple games
My guess is that Koskinen will start and be leaned on during the most important games (games 1 and game 7 for example), whereas Smith will be played when opportunities arise, for example, game 4 if the Oilers are up 2-1 in the series.
One of the consistent mantras of this blog as I understand is that we must wait 5 years post draft before reaching any definitive conclusions on a player.
Puljujarvi was drafted in the summer of 2016. Now, nearly 6 years later, he’s been out produced by each of the other Fs in his lottery cluster (Matthews, Laine, DuBois, Tkachuk, and Keller).
Given the above facts, why does there continue to be so much pushback on suggesting JP is more potential than production as a viable top 6 option?
Seems like narrative is winning again. This insistence on protecting underproducing players only compounds the error of the initial draft whiff. It reminds me of drunks hanging around at last call in the hopes of finding a gorgeous girl to go home with. The good ones have left already. The ones that remain are going to have some ‘issues.’
Re: Last Call Gorgeous Girl
Now you tell me….
Are players only their point production and nothing else? Do we need to analyze anything else in hockey beyond boxcars?
Boxcars are like profit margin. They’re the data points that all others should roll up to.
For Top 6 Fs that command a high % of your game mins AND cap, I equate Gs with revenue growth. You gotta have it from the people you slot in as your top producers.
If you’re an org that chooses to overlook the most critical metrics in your player evaluations, you will be beaten by teams that do not. Athletes are paid based on boxcar production. They know this and their orgs know it. You don’t want to be a top 6 forward trying to justify your existence based on how hard you try. Results matter.
I don’t care how long ago he was drafted, or what round. At 24 draft pedigree is irrelevant. I look at that he is currently between 40th and 45th in the league for right wing in points, p/g, p/60 all situations, and p/60 5 on 5. That is top 6 level NHL production no matter how you slide it. That’s right in the neighborhood, (above and below him) of players like Garland, Rakell, Phil Kessel, Boeser, Dadanov and Eberle who all make $3.8 million+ and mostly a lot more. I also see a player who was the 2nd youngest taken in his draft year to play meaningful NHL games, got off to a slow start in his career, is only about to turn 24 and has additional upside offensively. This on top of all the info shared by many in the last 2 days of his on-ice impact on other players he plays with.
And so what if he is outproduced by Matthews, Laine and Dubois, they were all drafted ahead of him anyway. And Keller is getting paid over $ 7 million, as is Tkachuk and he is going to get paid a lot more. The question is does he fill the right need at the the right price and term.
I agree with those who say that on the Oilers now, he is a bona fide top 6 option on the right side. If they could get someone better great, but it wouldn’t be cheap. I will say, I probably wouldn’t go 6 to 8 years on Jesse at this point. I’d try to get him at 4 x $ 4 million if he go for that, or 3 x 4 million. I am not sure when he become UFA eligible.
I’d like for the Oilers to keep him, but I also won’t crucify him if they trade him and get good value.
An unbiased analysis of Puljujarvis production has to account for the quality of his linemates. None of the players you cite as comps have an Art Ross caliber centerman.
True story. Dave Lumley once scored in 12 straight games playing alongside Gretzky.
I’m not sure if it’s amusing or sad that my original post reinforces the importance of controlling for bias and the knee jerk response of so many is to simply argue for their own personal bias du jours.
How the hell did you twist yourself around so quickly from
‘Statements like this are obviously not conducive to a mindset of open ongoing enquiry.’ and
‘Have controls to mitigate bias! We’re humans. We all have them.’
to accusing those who don’t agree with you of arguing for their personal bias of the day?
That doesn’t look like a mindset of open ongoing enquiry.
lol. Right?
Strong “nobody understands me” teenager energy.
Fair point about the quality of line mates. However, I am not sure if its amusing or sad, that while you started with a counter point to the information I presented and claim to want open debate about the situation, but then go on to suggest my post was knee jerk and that I have a bias du jour. I merely pointed out information that I have looked at regarding Jesse’ that supports my point of view. If someone has information that will enlighten me further that maybe Jesse isn’t the best long term player on Connor’s wing for the salary the OIlers can afford under the cap, I am open to seeing it. You don’t want seem to want to have a debate though since you just want to “control” for bias as you see it from your point of view.
By the way, Brock Boeser has played 50% more minutes with JT. Miller that Jesse has played with McDavid. J.T. Miller is 12th in league scoring.
You first sentence declared unequivocally that you don’t care about draft position in evaluating a player. That didn’t present as someone wanting an open discussion to me.
JT Miller is a sizeable reach as a comp for McDavid imo.
Posters that are looking at historic production from linemates of Crosby, Lemieux, Lindros, Gretzky etc. are likely heading down a worthwhile path of enquiry on this.
You seemed to want to lump anyone who is in support of Jesse on McDavid’s wing or at least in the top 6 into the same camp as to their reasons and also seem to assume that the level of support is the same. I just wanted to begin that I am judging Jesse in the here and now and not based on his draft pedigree or some long standing emotional attachment to the player. And you seem to be moving the goal posts. You went on about being in the top 6 requires production, but when I pointed out that he has top 6 level production, you only then added the quality of linemates.
Also before throwing these things out, you might want to check your facts first. Brian Rust was Sydney Crosby’s main right winger since 2016. A job he got at age of 24. He was about a .5 per game player with Crosby for their first 3 full seasons together, then he finally got onto the PP (with Kessel’s departure) and jumped to around a point per game finally at the age of 27.
Thing with JP is he has floated the boats of whoever he has played with this year. First liners, second liners, third liners, all of them have eye-popping WOWYs w.r.t. Puljujarvi.
Yes. But curious why the flag now at JP?
Over the last 2 years at least we have seen other higher profile players
consistently whiffing on gentle softballs over the middle of the plate.
What McDavid and Dria have been giving the last few years – *to their wingers*- is nothing short of extraordinary.
I’m reading these posts and respect your opinion, would ask that you respect posters when discussing their opinions. Please and thanks.
No worries. I can handle the piling on.
That’s not what I’m asking. I’m asking you to respect others. I suspect we are having a respect issue.
It’s cute how there’s one set of rules for HH and another set of rules for everyone else.
My request was a simple one. I’m not sure why this is an issue.
Random thought on JP:
He is very large and looks a little awkward out there at times. I feel like the larger kinda awkward forwards are often late bloomers. His size and slight awkwardness remind me of Kevin hayes, Blake wheeler, tage Thompson, guys like that. Many of whom didn’t break out offensively until 24-27. Jesse is 23 and if I recall was the youngest player chosen in his draft class. Atypical development path as well. I see arrows up on Jesse and think he will continue to improve the point totals.
True it sux that JP undoubtedly gets taken after Tkachuk, Dubois, and perhaps Keller in a re-draft, but …
1) the player has been paid peanuts over the past two seasons (value-contracts matter … especially after Chiarelli’s cap mess)
2) Counting stats don’t tell the full story – JP has been strong defensively
3) Past performance may not be a strong predictor of future performance. For example Dubois may have hit a ceiling as a 65-point guy, while Keller although talented is oft-injured. I’d say all three guys have 30-goal potential, and JP likely costs the least on his next contract.
You’re analysis doesn’t factor in the cap
JP doesn’t cover his draft position
But no team can contend without impactful role players on affordable contracts
He is a very impactful role player already
I’m fine with him in the bottom 6 on a bargain contract. For consistent production alongside Leon or Connor, Holland should aim higher.
There is high opportunity cost paid when a top 6 player isn’t cashing with the prime minutes he’s allotted, even moreso when he’s riding shotgun to a generational talent.
Again, the salary cap. Obviously, it would be great if Holland could snag a 50-goal scorer to play with McD but that is likely a luxury (especially factoring in previous cap mismanagement) this team cannot afford.
How many 40-goal scorers have flanked Crosby? How many 30-goal scorers? Not many.
Champagne tastes beer budget?
Or the GM could quit wasting so much of his cap on poorly negotiated contracts?
Very true, it is a real and frightening problem
If a line is crushing it offensively & keeping things under wraps defensively, I’m not sure it matters who is getting the points. By eye and by stat Jesse has been tilting the ice. That has huge value.
Coincidence that CMD is on pace for a career year for both points and goals scored, I do not think so.
This is the conclusion I had reached after weighing up what I see as the two sides of the argument I.e. look how little JP produces despite playing with McD and Drai vs look how much more McD and Drai produce when playing with JP.
Perhaps we can get Perlini or Rattie in that position.
Puljujarvi is going to deliver better value for money over the next five years than those five guys you list. Only Matthews is actually likely to be a better player over the next five years, and one will have to pay Matthews two to three times what Puljujarvi will make.
Puljujarvi is not a point hog, but is a truly elite player without the puck. He will be one of the best value for money players over the next five years.
JPs on good contracts drive Cups, in the plural
He is better than so many players at the mud slogging part of the game so many don’t want to do
Those types are the finishing pieces
Matthews / Nylander:
‘How do you know he’s the King?’
’Because he doesn’t have any shit on him’
And no Cups, pun intended
JP with the right cap hit and contract length can be very good value for the Oilers. Given cap constraints it is imperative that the team find wingers that can play in the top six on value contracts. JP whose career development has been marred is such a player. This is assuming they can get JP signed in the 4 to 4.5M for 5 to 7 years. Right shot wingers with his attributes are difficult to find. Value is based on the combination of cost and production. Your augment would be more valid in a non cap world!
There’s definitely a vibe, but that’s not the one I’m getting.
The Oilers are making a run for the playoffs while going into the fight with one arm tied behind their back. Looking at the West playoff teams and ‘Dead Cap’ shows what good teams do. Teams listed in order of Conference standings as of today.
COL – 0
CGY – 1.5
MIN – 6.75: Wild are the outlier here. Next year DC goes to $12.7
STL – 0
EDM – 4.16
LAK – 4.6
NAS – 2.3
DAL – 0
VGK – 0
Come on Kenny, no more buyouts or retained!
Dead cap hurts more than losing a draft pick
The Oilers have the cap for a top player doing nada
Almost all buyouts are weak sauce from the GM, who lacks vision, skill or both
I can’t fault Holland for how he dealt with an awful cap situation created by his predecessor. I prefer that to still having Milan Lucic playing for the team at $6.00 million per season till next year or 50% retained salary and whatever it would have cost to make that happen if it was even possible. Or Neal could be on the team for $5.75 million till next season. Once it was apparent Neal had to go, no one was taking his full salary, so you’d still have 50% plus whatever you would have to give up to get someone to take him.
Hard to know what could have been done differently with Sekera. Tough break on his injuries, but if they had kept him for 2 more seasons, the $5.5 cap would be gone. Based on Sekera’s play in Dallas, Keith is doing a better job in Edmonton at a similar cap hit, and people here hate that. What would have been the cost to get someone to take his full contract or even half? Maybe Holland tried to move him with no takers.
Currently 272 players in the NHL make $4 million or more – that makes $4 million the median salary for a standard contract. So $4 million might not get you a “top” player that often.
I firmly believe if you can’t trade a player like Lucic you can’t do the main part of your job. He’s about more than points. We see all the time worse moving that aren’t also Thor
Sekera was good enough to play right after he was bought out – fail for me
The cost of picks vs 4 1/4 M in dead cap. The cap is worth more especially when your core is in prime and not hitting UFA
But he did trade Lucic, and got Neal in return with $750,000 retained and the draft pick. Neal played pretty well the first half of that first season until injuries hit. Hard to know if Lucic would have waived his NMC for the Oilers for the Seattle draft, but that was part of the whole transaction as well.
Every team in the league has used buyouts a number of times times over the years.
Lucic can be traded now, Neal is in Boca Rattan gelling his hair
I think Oiler fans have seen so much piss poor management and goaltending since Sather many don’t even remember or ever knew what good looks like
This team should be leading the league now in every way as it once did
Pro sports is about championships. Every person involved directly needs that mentality for it to happen, but in todays context
Wins in the past mean little other than providing experience, but it doesn’t denote process as things change
We didn’t always grab the shitty end of the stick. We don’t need to anymore
Really?
There was no GM in the world that could have traded Lucic at the tie of the trade without massive poison pills. While his overall play has recovered a bit in the last few years in Calgary, at the time, is was fairly universal that he had the worst contract in hockey (or very close thereto). Either major bad cap was coming back (which it did) and/or retainment and/or big sweetener assets out, etc.
Look what Dubas paid at the time to get out of 1-year of Marleau’s contract – a first rounder.
Sekera was a great signing, he was worth his $5.5MM and was arguably the Oilers top d-man in the 2017 playoffs. Then Getalaf happened and he was never the same again.
At the time of buyout, sure, he was “able to play in the NHL” but as a 3rd pairig guy at best and for a cap hit of $1.5MM – something he hasn’t exceeded since.
I was in favor of trading Sekera with half retained, as opposed to a buyout, and I presume Holland was as well but that trade was’t available without more poison.
Dead cap does indeed suck but the situation at the time Chiarelli was let go was very very very dire. Some tough moves that created dead cap were required to provide a little bit of room to improve in the “here and now”.
We are now in a different spot – we are competitive in the hear and now and more dead cap should be avoided at most costs.
Buyouts for the likes of Kass and Smith should not be contemplated but, if required, a $750K – $1M retain on Kass to move that deal could be OK – not great though.
Dubas did that with Marleau and then acquired a first rounder
That’s how you do it
Slow poke GMs get buried. You can’t be stupid or course. Chevy in the Peg has sunk his team’s cup chances because he didn’t do enough
Players won’t wait forever so he keeps losing his talent. In a small tax unfriendly market
And now his core is aging out. As the Oilers are approaching. It happens fast, there is no more time to wait
If you can’t trade a top 3 monster fighter in NHL that still has game, somehow, you are no good. I cannot be convinced otherwise
It is the same as Chiapet saying he could only get Larsson for Hall. As the reaction of other GMs shows after it was total lazy, weirdo, uninformed, greasy moustache track suit slinging BS
Unless LAK can turn around their game pronto, we could be looking at an Edmonton-Vegas 1st round series. That means our path to the finals is likely Vegas > Calgary > Colorado. If by some miracle the Oilers can make it through that gauntlet, is there an Eastern team that stands a chance?
By the same token I’m glad the Oilers are facing some tough matchups over the next 10 days – better to prepare for playoff hockey than games against teams who’ve already checked out and booked their tee times.
That would be quite the path to the Finals…
It is interesting to see this binary narrative emerging on Jesse Puljujarvi that the numbers see him good and if you’re not down with that, you’re flat out wrong and should probably consider a seat at the kiddie table.
To be clear, what the numbers indicate is that JP is excelling as a top 6 contributor within the relatively narrow context of the other available options within the organization. What these numbers do not prove is that Puljujarvi is the optimal top 6 option going forward in the wider context of the available options throughout the league.
McCurdy’s analysis is an endorsement of Woodcroft deploying this player properly. It’s not a proof of concept that Holland can’t and shouldn’t consider other options with a higher ceiling for boxcar production in his top 6 next season. Hyman and Kane have certainly demonstrated the level of production that is possible from these positions.
Data analysis works best when it’s married to a mindset of open enquiry AND context. Less so when it’s being used with selective context to drive a narrative. This is not McCurdy’s fault. He expressed the parameters of his hypothesis properly and proved it. Where this process goes awry is when the relatively limited context of that experiment is then wielded in places like Twitter to ‘support’ a wider conclusion that anyone who is not bullish on Puljujarvi in the top 6 as a long term option simply doesn’t get it. Statements like this are obviously not conducive to a mindset of open ongoing enquiry.
One of the items I’ve noticed in my time as an Oilers fan is that there is a sizeable contingent of Oiler fans who fetishize draft potential over bottom line production. This contingent gets onboard with the Omarks, Pouliots, Yakupovs, Marincins, and MPSs of the world and doesn’t get off that cheer squad until the player’s lack of production lands them in Europe or the KHL. Even then, they’ll often insist the only reason the draft potential wasn’t realized is the Oilers screwed up their development. I’m not sure how that hypothesis holds up as prospects wash through numerous organizations but it certainly speaks to the challenges of context in these analyses.
Hockey analytics are reaching mass adoption. With that in mind, it’s probably not a bad idea to reinforce a foundation stone in all of this. Have controls to mitigate bias! We’re humans. We all have them.
Great post.
Excellent excellent post. Even though I have zero issue with JP in the top six and think he delivers value even without scoring, you make some valid points. IMO the goals will. But maybe they never do.
Bottom line for me is JP has more value to this team long term than Kane. I only hope Holland sees it the same way.
PS. Would also love to see JP riding shotgun with Nuge on the third line. Maybe he’s even more valuable there.
well, much of this is on Twitter and is a response to the MSM having the pitchforks out for Jesse after being wrong on so many, many issues in the past.
The push is “this is a valuable player even if he doesn’t score as much as you’d like”.
It shouldn’t get to the point where any criticism is seen as heresy, I just think his defenders are worried they’ll ship out a valuable, cost-controlled player to middling returns.
Excellent post- as always.
I am guilty on the prospects page of bias. Really thought Yakupov could have found a role along side McDavid. Alas, I see Nail has not even had much success in the KHL.
( almost more surprised at this fact)
I think the long road of futility played a factor here….for many years, our hopes were tied up on our prospects & the draft.
I agree with pretty much all of this.
What Bruce and I are pushing back on is the “JP shouldn’t be in the top 6” and “JP should be traded” talk on twitter.
I’m always up for “get good players, keep good players”
JP is 1RW by merit today.
If he were 2RW or 3RW on merit tomorrow, the team I cheer for would be a better team.
Why invoke the Omarks and Paajarvis etc? Jesse is pretty clearly well beyond those players.
They’re examples of an overall mindset not suggestions for direct comps.
Elias Lindholm didn’t score 20 goals until he was 24. Markus Naslund didn’t have his breakout season till he was 25. Ditto for the Sedins.
All these players were middle six players until their mid twenties, and didn’t become first line players till then.
Puljujarvi is pretty much on that track.
I agree with a lot of what you say
The thing is those who only look at stats or fetishize prospects aren’t necessarily that understanding of hockey
The eye test is the control for stats. Stats can uncover under-utilized players or players about to emerge that can lead to cap efficiencies
How much do they tell you about higher end players? Not that much usually if you know what you’re watching and what’s needed for the team to be better than it is
The prospects you mentioned outside of Pouliot I thought we’re not good selections and we’re not going to make it once seeing them in the bigs
I am no expert on the draft or much else, but sometimes people over complicate things and understanding diminishes
Just like there is a reason that linebackers aren’t 140 lbs and receivers aren’t 330 lbs, there are baselines for successful NHL players, and the failed prospects had and have red flags, and it almost always plays out as such
Most players improve if given the time. But you can pretty much see what the deal is right away.
JP will not be joining Connor and Leon in the top 5 of scoring leaders. But they all can’t be high cap hit players as I mentioned above. What if he was better than Tkachuk? Who do you want to lose bcs cap in that case?
I am not sure “Hockey analytics are reaching mass adoption”.
It is just my opinion, but we should all respect, read and respectfully debate with Lowetide, Woodguy, Redbird62, GeorgeX, Bruce and others they are leading the way and this should be celebrated and supported.
However the predictable of the analytic is not close to being the main decision support tool.
Right now the NHL head coach receives very little REAL TIME information. The most common communications is from a note scribbled on a paper pad, an iPad to see what just happened or an assistant coach speaking into his sleeve.
On the Amateur side -The General Manager does not have the data points from the amateur leagues to understand what 99% of the players are going to be when they grow up.
On the Pro side – the cap has made real trade almost impossible.
We are in REALLY early days.
I can’t find the article right now but posted a while ago that there are indeed analytics teams that are feeding the coaches data in real time on the bench.
Will re-post if I can find it.
Hockey is too fast for real time stats
Any coach worth his salt should absolutely be able to see what he needs to know with his eyes using the best analytics tool there are – the brain using experience
Replays for things like offside and crease / goal line stuff sure
The rest in game is playing the system, meeting assignments, and winning your battles, making normal saves
Cold hands, low energy, off game, you don’t need a computer for either
I’m a stats liking person, that’s why I’ve been here so long, but they are very often used wrongly or to no good effect, than the opposite, in non static, highly layered environments like hockey
When you have too many variables, too much uncertainty. Sure we’ll get there, but a guy like Scotty Bowman started there
The math of hockey is wildly complicated. Yet the game is as it ever was after Bobby Orr and Wayner, other than what rules the league wants to bother calling and what pads the goalers wear
I think we have a yahtzee.
We just need to find out if Holland Tunnel is willing to drive down to Sylvan Lake for a barn fight.
Sure looks like the Knights finish 3rd given team + schedule. Are they sitting on a bunch of healthy IR players that’ll start the playoffs? I assume the Oilers would prefer the Kings..?
VGK would be a very good playoff team – but I don’t think they get there.
LAK – given their opponents over the final 8 games, they could very easily go 6-2 and finish with 98 pts. But assume they falter go 5-3 and finish with 96.
VGK would have to collect 12 points in their final 9 games to finish with 96 (they would have the tie breaker on LAK), so 6-3. I have the VGK losing to Flames, Oilers, Capitals and Stars. So they finish 5-4 and miss the playoffs by 2 points. Could not happen to a nicer bunch of guys playing the playoff cap gymnastic game.
Will Eichel ever play in the playoffs?
VGK could also overtake DAL for the final wildcard spot, setting up an epic 1st round matchup with COL. What does your analysis say about Dallas’ stretch run?
Dallas has 10 games left and is at 86 pts. They have 5 winnable games (ARI, ANA, VAN, SEA and SJS) which would get them to 96 pts.
The fun game to watch may be Stars at home to VGK on April 26th.
Exactly what I posted earlier today. I see VGK at 95 pts. LAK with 96pts. and EDM with 100, which effectively means that Eichel will not play in this playoffs at the very least.
Thanks for that – I found your earlier post. Given the schedules and how the teams are playing, I have EDM and DAL in and LAK fighting VGK for 3rd in the Pacific. VGK do not control their fate as they sadly do not play the LAK again this year.
Flat Top may let us down here and let the VGKs in – hope not.
What’s the story with James Stefan LT? Why is he generally ranked so low? He’s not small, has a good NHLE. Is it a case of not trusting a man with two first names?
Guilt by association? His dad is none other than Patrik Stefan lol
What can the 32nd overall pick get?
Jagger Firkus. There’s a name.
I think I planted one of those in my back yard recently.
#OldManTalking
#DadJoke
Nephew of a good buddy
This is something that’s been knocking around my head, and it might be a bit tin foil for some, but hear me out.
Woodcroft/Manson come in and start hitting all the right notes. They are experienced coaches and good at what they do, but is that a likely outcome for two outsiders? A lot of very specific changes were made in a relatively short period of time.
I wonder if someone, somewhere in the org — call it the deep state 🙂 — is tracking things from a statistical point of view and actually doing a good job of it and making good recommendations. Maybe when W/M arrived, those recommendations were implemented.
Like, the idea of Nurse-Ceci as a hard matchup pair and two third pairs…that’s pretty smart. I wonder if Woodcroft-Manson came up with it on their own. Maybe they did, but that’s a recognition that Keith/Barrie/Bouchard should be sheltered from the toughs. That information must be coming from somewhere, right?
There was something on twitter last year about a vocal group of Oiler insiders who were upset that Bouchard wasn’t playing regularly. Also, Woodcroft alluded to having access to better statistical information than what is publicly available.
Things that make you go, hmmm. If Dennis King is reading, maybe he can check into this 🙂
Thing is, Woody would have been familiar with about 15 current roster players dating back to his days as an assistant for Todd McLellan. Manson would have worked with fewer, but there were already some key building blocks for establishing a relationship with the group when ManWood arrived.
In the early run of games I think running 11-7 was a way to get a feel for the defense at this level. Everyone was taking shifts with everyone else for a spell (LT did a great job of breaking down the splits in his post-game posts). Once Manson got a handle on the players, and guys came off the IR, they went 12-6 and settled into the pairings we’re seeing currently.
We already know they have access to private analytics like ClearSight and SportLogiq, so that’s not surprising that Woody (and Tippett before) mentioned better numbers being available.
It is a reasonable hypothesis imo. Fueled by all the reason you list.
And the fact that the change was rather dramatic and measurable and the “knowledge” that Woody is more Analytics savvy than Kenny.
A journey of 1000 miles starts with a single step.
#HighwayOutOfHell
#HighwayHardRun
“Highway hard run, sure runs, sure hard….
We’re looking for relief, but that ain’t all”
I think your theory has some weight. Woodcroft has done a great job making effective changes to the deployment and strategy, i.e., the forecheck/neutral zone play.
That being said, roster health cannot be understated, IMO. Woody has been working with a fully healthy roster plus the additions of Kane, Kulak, and Brassard. When Tip had a healthy roster he was winning games (albeit, with less impressive underlying numbers).
McCurdy (I think) on Twitter highlighted the PDO of Tip vs. Woody. I would guess part of the reason Tip had a lower PDO is a result of having to play more AHLers/low skill players who drag down on-ice shooting percentage vs. Woody who has the luxury of RNH on the third line.
Not shitting on Woody, he has done great. But, he is definitely benefitting from health/additions to the roster.
FWIW Bruce Curlock (@bcurlock on twitter) is very familiar with hockey systems and is an avid watcher of the Condors. He is/was a poster here, but forget his handle.
He talked about what BAK was doing different in terms of forecheck and neutral zone systems when Wooodcroft was hired and what he implemented here is pretty much identical to what they ran down there iirc.
Also,
Justin Mahe does some analysis for EDM and they have access to private data. Not sure to what extent its used, but its there.
Good morning to you LT.
You posted yesterday “Evan Bouchard had six shots (five at even strength) and took two penalties. I think he should replace Barrie on the power play, Bouchard’s subtle changes before shots from the point are more dangerous than Barrie’s arsenal.”
If it fits in, could you ask Gregor about his view of this?
If it doesn’t fit in I get it. It was a VERY busy weekend in the sports world; A lot to cover.
Also or alternatively,
Who do each of you start in goal come playoff time AND do you ride one goalie or play the tandem?
(and the associated logic, Win and you stay in? Loose 2 and your out? Home and Away? Just ride the chosen one all the way?)
Thanks whether of not either question fits.
Agreed on Bouche. Barrie couldn’t possibly be more reliable defending while on the PP. Bouche also absolutely loves to shoot. The only minus I see might be footspeed and a lack of awareness on blocked shots coming back the other way (but such is the risky trade off). Leon + McD + Bomb leaves more threats than a PK will know what to do with. It could also be interesting to see McD play just a bit higher closer to the blueline and benefit from the extra room to maybe beat a PKer, with Leon bear the goal-line or out further to the slot with Bouche moving a bit further over and lower (boxing the PK rather than the star formation).
Worth a try, imo. It certainly opens up rushes the other way but McD is fast!
Georges,
Read your replies yesterday. Good stuff. I wanted to expand on what I meant by my belief that averages (taken across the entire NHL) in Elite/Middle/Grit ought to converge to 50%, and that concluding matchups matter less based on that is highly misleading.
Here’s my example: it’s a three team league with teams A, B, and C. Team A is elite and crushes all three categories, team B is average (~50%), and team C is below average.
Taking an average across the entire league, GF% (or maybe xGF%) would approach 50% for each category, because A “balances out” C.
My general point is, I think taking averages in this context is misleading.
My other contention is, your point of matchups not mattering so much doesn’t pass my own sniff test. Playing against 97 or 29 is harder than playing against Shore, and we know that coaches hide guys.
Your point about the Woodcroft/Manson deployment of Nurse is fair. I like Nurse a lot as well. My point is, Woodguy is saying W/M are running Nurse/Ceci like a heavy comp top pair and two third pairing D. Those other two pairings are now thriving. Barrie is suddenly amazing 🙂
But, maybe we should give Nurse/Ceci some credit for the success of those other pairs, and I think that’s the value of looking at matchups/WoodMoney/etc.
Theory makes sense.
I definitely play better against tier-10 beer league teams than against tier-7 teams. The latter really have the skill to suppress my offense!
Riffing on Maudite, HH and Knighttown to put all this info in one post about the teams in the chase.
Games over fake Bettman .500:
EDM +17 (9 GR)
NSH +15 (10 GR)
DAL +14 (10 GR)
LAK +12 (8 GR)
VGK +11 (9 GR)
Last 10 games:
EDM 7-2-1 (OTL last game at home vs COL)
NSH 5-4-1 (OTL in PIT last game)
LAK 4-4-2 (lost last 3 games)
DAL 6-3-1 (won in last game in CHI)
VGK 7-3-0 (beat ARI at hom last game)
Games remaining vs Playoff Teams:
NSH 5
EDM 5
VGK 5
DAL 4
LAK 1
Home/Road splits remaining:
DAL 7 Home 3 Road
NSH 7 Home 3 Road
EDM 5 Home 4 Road
LAK 3 Home 5 Road
VGK 3 Home 6 Road
Relevant games today:
None
LAK in a world of trouble here. I get that their schedule looks easy from here, but you still have to win the games.
Classic Tmac.
Awesome. Thanks again for all this!
Assuming the Oilers draft around #23 (or 32nd 😁)I think they need to select the best-available D, preferably a Right-shot. Greatest area of organizational weakness, IMO.
I wonder where the Oilers had Moritz Seider on their 2021 draft list?
Damn you Yzerman!
Probably had Seider rated as a top DET prospect by 2021, considering his draft year was 2019. 😉
That said, Seider is who I had my eye on, otherwise I was interested in Krebs (thinking Newhook would be available in the second round).
OOPS! Thank you for being kind about it. 🙂
#OldManNoCoffee
Know the feeling… at this rate the years resemble a toilet paper roll: the closer you get to the end, the quicker it goes. (Credit: Jack Handey)
As for the 2021 draft, Yz was at it again… that’s the year he nabbed Cossa from under us and Old Dutch passed on Wallstedt in favour of The Bourg. An interesting draft and follow.
Wahlstedt or RD Corson Ceulemans in 2021.
I’ve always liked Bourgault and think he can contribute during McDavid’s contract, but either of those two other prospects would fit organizational need in a big way.
Seider could be the pick of the draft. Would rather have him than Byram right now and I like Byram. He’s a beast. He’s playing 23 minutes a game already.
Yes, I was one of the ones that was shocked at the Seider pick.
Paying off big time.
Chesley?
I watched Owen Pickering (6’4″ 178lbs LD) on the weekend, #20 on LT’s list. He looked good, with good mobility, and played in all situations. I wonder if the Oiler’s would consider him if he’s still on the board in the 20s.
The Magic number is the number of standing points the Oilers must win or the other team must lose in order for the Oilers to remain ahead of the other team in the standings. This is calculated by determining how many points the other team can possibly accumulate, then determining how many more points it would take Edmonton to clear* that margin.
*All Magic numbers are to clear the other teams’ highest point total, as tiebreakers are unpredictable
Firstly, for any other numbers to matter, the Oilers must be passed by a Pacific division team, and be relegated to the Wild Card. The Ducks, Sharks, and Coyotes can no longer catch the Oilers:
IF a Pacific team catches the Oilers, the following Magic numbers apply to the wildcard:
Finally, the jockey for playoff positioning leads us to one team we are ahead of, and only one other team we are chasing:
So if the Flames pick up 11 standing points, the Oilers lose 11 standing points or some combination of the two, we cannot catch them.
A 6 – 2 – 1 record DOWWNNN the stretch would guarantee a playoff spot, and 2nd in the Pacific. Anything less than that would require Vegas or LA to lose at least once in their final 8 or 9 games. That’s a tall order considering the games coming up, but not altogether unrealistic, and I would expect the Knights or the Kings to lose at least once or twice in their last run of games.
I get nervous just thinking about it. Every game is a big game.
I’m sort of glad the Oilers are facing tougher comp heading into the playoffs; It means they should hit the post season firing on all cylinders.
Thankfully, the next 8 games are nicely spaced out. (relatively speaking)
No back to backs until the final 2 games of the season against San Jose and Vancouver. Hopefully, it’s all been decided by then
This is key, IMO. I posted about it after the COL game. That they didn’t win in a blowout is a benefit. Would rather them see and believe that they can dance with the elite teams, but have work to do, than think they can just blitz anyone they choose.
That 6-2-1 record btw would also mean that Calgary would need to only go 3-7-0 to win the division
Bold predictions: Here is what I expect will happen for the 3 Pacific Division teams thru’ this month.
VGK goes WLTWLWWWL for 11 points ending the season with 95 points
LAK goes WLLWWWWL for 10 points ending the season with 96 points
EDM goes LWWLLWLWW for 10 points ending the season with 100 points
Don’t see VCR getting into the mix here. Anybody else see it this way?
Love the presentation. Nice visual.
Looks very reasonable. If anything I might shave a point or two off of the Oilers.
so 95
96
98-99?
Yeah! I can live with that. 🙂
And why would anybody downvote this?