It’s that time of year again. The McKenzie list is out. BM doesn’t put together his list the way mere mortals do, his ranking is compiled via input from multiple scouts. McKenzie’s 2022 list is here.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Is this Oilers’ year to find a world-class agitator in NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Which Oilers are most likely to return next season? Who goes?
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers would benefit from signing Andrei Kuzmenko
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ Tyler Benson is at a career crossroads
- Lowetide: What does Oilers’ optimal roster for Jay Woodcroft look like?
- DNB: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s playoffs for the ages: What’s the legacy?
- DNB & Scott Powers: Oilers’ cap situations if Duncan Keith retires
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: What will Edmonton Oilers do in first round of 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
MCKENZIE/LT LIST 2022
The McKenzie list and my list have some differences, but can live in harmony this summer. We differ on No. 1 overall, and my No. 12 selection (Jagger Firkus) isn’t in his first round (No. 34) but there’s plenty of agreement over the first 32 names.
This is a list compiled with help from scouts, so there’s some concensus here and the draft often follows the BM list loosely. If the first 28 names come off the board as McKenzie predicts, the Oilers can choose among Jagger Firkus, Jordan Dumais, David Goyette, Gleb Trikozov and Reid Schaefer. I expect the team will strongly consider trading down with a team looking to get back in to the first round. It’s a good bet Edmonton’s first pick comes near the start of day two.
2019 MCKENZIE VS. OILERS
McKenzie’s list is off to an early lead and chances are this won’t get better. Zegras was a high-end skill forward who played in Ken Holland’s backyard, so whatever he didn’t see must have developed in the short period after the draft. Broberg had an encouraging season and could become a top-four defender soon. Edge McKenzie.
2018 MCKENZIE VS. OILERS
Both lists did well in this draft, I think the Oilers made out like bandits with their first two selections. Can you name the last Oilers draft that provided the team with two picks that cleared the 500 NHL game plateau? Answer: 2007. Sam Gagner and Riley Nash.
2017 MCKENZIE VS. OILERS
This draft sets up well compared to the McKenzie list. Edmonton traded up to get Skinner, who looks like a lock for an NHL role in the season to come. Three regulars from one draft? Come on, that’s unicorns. Samorukov has NHL talent, staying healthy has been an issue.
2016 MCKENZIE VS. OILERS
This was such a strange draft, I still can’t believe the Oilers used THREE picks in the third round on defensemen. Someday someone will spill the reason but it was an unusual move. I think this draft has some real promise courtesy the Finns, it surely looks better than it did two years ago.
SILLY IN SUMMER
We’re up and running on silly season. That’s the period where all kinds of rumours run through the city like shiza through a goose. Most of them are farce, but some that seem to be farce turn out to be true. The Duncan Keith rumour was around for several weeks last summer, came true despite being unbelievable at the time.
This year, we have Zack Kassian being sent somewhere soon. Apparently his entire $3.2 million cap hit is heading somewhere with a small sweetener in exchange for a useful player. I think this is why people get so angry at this time of year.
When was the last time Ken Holland fleeced another general manager? I’m not trying to be a jerk here, I am onside with much of the work Holland has done (especially in the last 12 months). However, when someone says “small sweetener” the mind wanders to “seventh round pick” when the actual sweetener might be “Jesse Puljujarvi” instead.
What is a realistic trade based on Holland’s own past and the specific needs of the other organization involved? Well, if the Ottawa Senators are taking on Kassian at full poke and the return is Connor Brown, I would say the other piece is the more significant one heading to the Senators. Puljujarvi? Tyson Barrie? 2023 second? Don’t know. What I do know is that promoting that Kassian and a small sweetener being sent away for a legit return is unlikely to happen based on the Oilers own past. Question for the group: When was the last time Edmonton won a trade by so much it was obvious when it happened? I’ll hang up and listen.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
It’s Wednesday and now we’re reasonably inside the window where trades and signings can happen. We’re on 10-2 today, TSN1260, jocularity everywhere! Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal and Deon Lacey of the Elks helps set up this week’s game. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
We are back to arguing and fighting, so this is the post the separates what came before and what will get one or more posters a weekend vacation. If you want to converse this way, find another place. If you want to contribute to the conversation as adults, please continue.
I feel for you, big guy. I don’t envy you the headache of having to referee adults who start to bicker like kids. I started reading this blog years ago as a calm and reasoned place to discuss and learn more about hockey and the Oilers – a respite from all the juvenile tomfoolery abundant on the rest of the interweb. What you cultivate here is amazing and to be applauded. I am a huge fan of both you and the other scintillating voices that populate the majority of this online community. Keep up the good fight, good sir, and know we will always be mindful of what you are trying to preserve. Hockey for me would be less fun without a space like this.
We got your back.
Write to Trudeau and see if he can help you get Oilers fans to interact in exactly the fashion you prefer.
I hate the way you try to control the content.
HH, you just go ahead and do and say whatever you want, troll away.
The rest of you are assholes and if you don’t stop talking about things you’re interested in I’m going to close up my blog and go home… except you won’t, because the comments section is your cash cow.
If Trudeau can’t help, maybe he’ll pass a law or declare an emergency.
Trudeau is one of the words the filter blocks. Just so you know.
Wow, Pronman at the athletic has Oilers picking… Brad Lambert? Hard to see him falling that far, but he has the best Swedish name since Douglas Murray!
He would be a terrific pick that late. Pronman knows his stuff, so that’s an exciting thing to contemplate.
David Staples on Jesse’s departure.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/puljujarvi-to-be-traded-both-sides-are-ok-with-moving-on-insider-reports
Any surprise?
Nope.
But I think Holland has resuscitated Jesse’s value over the past 2 years to the point to where he again looks to have top 6 winger potential.
Necas is not happy with his situation in Carolina, and Niederreiter may not return. Jesse would be a good fit there potentially. A swap of unhappy young forwards seems like the best option. Necas straight up for Jesse … Necas had more points this season, but Jesse has better tools.
If Jesse can’t see that earning ice time with McDavid or Draisaitl is his ticket to a big pay day, then I guess it really is time to move on.
I believe that Necas for Puljujarvi could at least get the Oilers to come out even on the deal. My personal opinion is that they don’t view him being a power play guy or 1st or 2nd line guy any longer.
Necas for Jesse seems to make sense on a lot of levels. There are 3 other fins in Carolina’s top 6, I’m sure Jesse will fit in better there. Scoring is similar, Jesse a bit shy but perhaps he brings other tools. Necas is still a year from arbitration so we save some cap and Carolina has extra space to fit Jesse. I listened to Necas exit media availability, didn’t sound like he and the coach were happy with his season. Not sure if it’s a good idea but the trade looks like a fit for both sides.
I do not care if the Oilers trade JP for fair value.
The issue: when was the last time an Oilers GM traded a young player and won the trade?
I’m going to go with Kelly, Bonsignore and Marchment for Hamrlik.
Then Hamrlik was traded to the Isles for Brewer, Green and a 2nd
Then Brewer, Lynch and Woywitka were sent for Pronger.
So a bunch of prospects + one of the dirtiest players in the NHL became the Human Rake.
(The rest of that trade tree afterwards is kind of depressing though)
Paajarvi for Perron.
Dutch walked into a mess with Jesse when he first got here. The relationship was in the wc and many were calling to just dump him for a bag of cracked pucks. Many previous GM’s might have done just that.
But I give Ken Holland credit for his patience and focus to start clean with Jesse and rebuild the relationship to the point that he returned. At least now we can move on from a position of less weakness if they decide to part ways.
That took guts. I like Jesse, he seems a nice kid and may have a pretty good career when all is said and done, but if it isn’t a fit, it isn’t a fit and there’s no shame in that. We all move on and wish each other well. It’s the mature, professional way to do it.
Grumpy old man yelling mode (back) ON in 10, 9, 8……
….
Fiala trade grades.
https://theathletic.com/3391134/2022/06/29/kings-wild-fiala-trade-grades/?source=user_shared_article
Rangers and Winnipeg discussing a Pierre Luc Dubois trade.
with what cap I wonder?
Likely Ryan Strome’s.
It would have to be salary in/out trade, as NY would have just under $7 million to sign 8 players, including a goalie, after taking on PLD.
Sucks for the Jets – they turned Laine who wanted out of there into Dubois, who also wants out of there now. They should try hard to turn Dubois into some high end prospects and get the rebuild going. I’m really curious to see if Montreal would take a run at him.
I also wonder whether any of the top 4 players taken in the 2016 draft will still be playing for the team that drafted them in 2024-25.
Theo Fluery on Tucker Carlson show at 8pm??? Are they talking about the upcoming draft or the HOF snub?
neither.
They’re talking about life which is still legal Comrade.
Tommy Gazzola saying JP is as good as gone….where is he heading and for whom??
Find an advanced analytics team and take advantage of them
Somehow I doubt Kenny will win the trade…..
I have my money on Carolina where he hooks up with Aho and his Dad. Oilers and Carolina have a recent history with the Bear for Foegele trade happening at this time last year.
I think if he goes there, he will light it up. Who is coming back to Edmonton?
My source wouldn’t divulge.
lol that concerns me
What are you thinking by ‘light it up’?
Ottawa? Brown + a 2nd for the Viking Bison and Barrie/Kassian? Probably have a few other parts perhaps. Would that work in the Oilers benefit?
Is Brown subsequently signing an extension?
Fiala to LA for a first round pick.. weaponized cap space
So it begins….
Wow. That seems like an absolute steal for LA.
The deal also included defense prospect Brock Faber going to Minnesota. He was drafted number 45 overall by the Kings in 2020. He played for Team USA in the 2022 Olympics. Still seems like a good deal for LA.
Agree. What a deal for LA.
And Minnesota gets a bit weaker, thankfully.
I mean, LA is in our division…
Right. The Wild were much more formidable than the Kings last season. Adding Fiala will help the Kings but they won’t be as strong as the Wild were last year, imo.
LA is not done…expect to see them acquire a young LD…likely Chychrun.
Why not Quinn Hughes, the next great small D!
He’s too valuable to trade.
He finished 13th in Norris Trophy voting.
You know who wasn’t given even 1 measly vote?
Darnell Nurse.
Imagine that.
As the world has witnessed numerous times and especially this year, votes don’t equal a players worth.
Almost half of Hughes points came on the PP and he played a measly 32.2% TOI vs elites. Just another player you continue to over rate.
Nurse finished 7th last year, when Hughes didn’t get one measly vote.
26 voters actually put Nurse on their ballots too, vs. 5 for Hughes this year.
How many points would Hughes accumulate if he was a Oiler next year. 82 greater or less?
Less…for sure.
He’s plenty good but he is not Cale Makar.
The Wild will have 14M in dead cap space until Kap is 28. Yikes.
Yeah it’s gonna be a buyers market. Anyone thinking a Boeser is gonna get them a huge return is gonna be very disappointed
Fiala signs for $7.875, not sure what team would want Boeser for $7.5.
Yup. The kings who were supposedly crazy deep on forwards in a crazy deep prospect pool once again spent a ton of money on …. forwards
And the contract Fiala signed with the Kings is $7.875 million times 7 years.
Great numbers this year but disappeared in the playoffs yet again.
Yikes!
With $12 M left to sign 7 players including Kempe & Durzi I am guessing this was the Kings big move of the summer.
Capfriendly’s numbers for the upcoming season present the wrong comparison for players still shown on LTIR. It says LA has 16 on the roster with $70 million of approximate cap hit, but the cap hit includes Doughty’s and Sean Walker’s salary while the 16 roster spots do not include them. So assuming that Doughty and Walker can play next season, they have 18 players signed and $12 million to sign 5. If one or both can’t play, their salary could be moved to the LTIR pile freeing up space to cover the player replacing them on the roster.
Right. That makes it look better for them. I guess we’ll see how much of that Kempe gets.
LA is looking deep at forward but undersized on lines 2 & 3, 4 top 9 forwards <= 5.10.
I wonder if there was a bit of the Eberle phenomenon going on with Minnesota not finding a way to sign him? The last 2 regular seasons, he has scored 125 points in 132 games. Just what you’d want in a first line LW (well unless Kaprizov is your first line LW). But in 13 playoff games in those 2 seasons, he has 1 goal and 4 assists, and a team worst 5 on 5 goal share of 28% as they lost twice in the first round.
I think Guerin is a very good evaluator of talent.
It is fair to question his cap management skills however with ~$13 million to $15 million in buyout dead cap that he is stuck with for 3 more years.
Not sure he had much choice with the story that both Suter and Parise kept contacting the owner to circumvent coaching decisions and anything else they didn’t like.
Gutsy move for a rookie HC.
didnt Fiala drive coaches wild with his play? Bad Defensively or non physical? I mean he was traded from Nashville and was pretty productive
Well They have Fialas replacement already
Faber is a good RHD prospect, who is maybe 1-2 years away from the NHL. I like the deal for Minnesota, as it will allow them to move on from Dumba when he becomes a UFA next season.
Fun fact: Faber was chosen with one of the 2nd round picks the Oilers gave up in the Athanasiou trade.
But he never would have played in Edmonton (or LA for that matter) – apparently he has a young sibling with special needs and does not want to leave Minnesota. Kings asked him to go pro, but he said no thank you and returned to the Gophers. He was playing top 4 minutes for the US team in the Olympics.
LA did well to turn Faber into Fiala, but I think Minnesota also got a guy they value highly, and RHD with top 4 potential are always high value assets.
Interesting story I’ll be cheering for our pick too knock it out of the park plus Billy played his ass off when he was a Oiler.
Really? Did they all sit down and talk it out till they came to an agreement? 😛 …Yes, this is my annual disparagement of the use of the term “consensus” to describe Bob’s ranking.
It was a JOY however to see McKenzie himself make reference to the incorrect usage in his article. Of course, it stopped no one, lol. My hope is that one day precision and accuracy in language will be a priority for the Advanced Stats Community. But it seems a distant bell still now, over two full decades in.
I am confused. Are you implying that Bob’s list is part of the “Advanced Stats Community”? Are the last two sentences an independent thought?
No. Just those within the community who refer to his list, and in doing so often deploy the term “consensus” to represent “median” or “average.” Which has always struck me as bizarre coming from a community allegedly devoted to Math.
I mean five guys independently took one player for number one and four guys another player and yet another guy yet another player, but y’know, consensus… lol. Usually only in politics can you see polarization described as “consensus”.
LT once wrote, toward the end of yet another losing season in the DoD, that many of the players on the roster might have played their last NHL game of their career and they might not knew it. Players on a losing team is rarely valued. Players that could not made enough of a difference in the inept Oilers team(while competing the likes of Marcabrllos for ice time) go striaght out of the league. This made the Perron trade such an inspired move in those dark days.
With the Oilers slowly turning around from bottom dweller to playoff contender and finally perennial playoff team their players will get better regarded. Winning changes the narratives. It will take another few “succesful” seasons (say, another deep run or two) to change the perception from “Conner McDavid /Leon Draisatl plus a bunch of bums” to “Player X is having very good underlying whatever numbers but got buried in a very deep Oilers team”, and they might be able to recycle their complementary players again.
Winning really does change everything. Tampa recycled a whole line and still made it to the final. So was their depth superior? Yes, but that level of turnover lends to the idea that their systematic play and core is what really drives the bus (hot take alert). Coleman and Goodrow getting huge paydays for 3rd line play. Some GM’s never learn.
Coleman and Goodrow getting huge paydays for 3rd line play. Some GM’s never learn.
=======================
This is true but it is also true that for a GM to dig his team out of the hole he is in overpaying UFA’s is a necessary evil.
It sells tickets, helps win a few more games and gives younger guys role models that hopefully pays off down the line.
It isn’t a winning strategy so much as a ‘what other options do I have’ strategy. Especially if you have an impatient or incompetent owner.
Colorado has become the best team in the league by trading for and signing undervalued players – guys like Kadri, Nichushkin, Lehkonen and Toews. These are the type of players Holland should be targeting. I have zero confidence in his ability to do that.
Toronto didn’t undervalue Kadri. In the trade they received Kerfoot, who had 52 points last season and Barrie, who played better for Toronto than most people give him credit for, especially after Babcock was fired. Meanwhile, until this season, Kadri kept doing what got him shipped out of Toronto – getting himself suspended in the playoffs – and even this season he should have faced supplemental discipline for his bowling over and injuring of Binnington. In the end it has worked out well for Colorado, but its not like Toronto was fleeced in this deal; it was a hockey deal that fit the needs of the two teams participating at the time it was done.
St. Loo coming off a Cup win a few years back still had the goods and the Berube game plan to snuff out the Av’s. It’s too bad Binnington got hurt, things could of been much different if we faced St.Loo in the Confidence Final.
Stauffer made a comment awhile back about the Oilers having more cap than people think.
That either means:
1 – Smith and Keith retiring or
2 – Kassian/Barrie/Foegele gone or
3 – Both 1 and 2.
Trading JP/KY doesn’t do much for the cap, unless they are anticipating huge arb awards.
Kassian and Barrie are almost certainly gone. Can only hope the assets in and assets are equal. I’m not sure Foegele gets traded. I think JP only gets traded if the team wants him out, or the player wants out.
If they trade Barrie I really hope they have a Bouchard extension in place already. Hes too good for Wood to resist putting on the first powerplay unit in that situation and then negotiating a contract will be for a 60-70 point player instead of a 30-40.
I think Bouchard’s agent probably has that figured out as well. 😉
He probably does but at the end of the day theres always more risk for the player than the organization. I wonder what number gets bouchard to an 8 year contract knowing theres always a chance of a career ending injury possible in every game. 40 million over 8 years?
I agree the team has more leverage this year than next IF Bouchard continues on his current development path. Career ending injury goes both ways though as we are currently witnessing with Klefbom. I just think that a savvy agent knows all of this and will negotiate accordingly.
They slow played Bouchard in the Hotel room 2 seasons ago. For what reason is still played on Unsolved Mysteries starring Robert Stack. Players and agents remember this kinda shit.
The reason is known, stated and obvious – you refuse to acknowledge that does not mean that its unknown.
You not agreeing with the reasoning does not make it unknown.
The reason why Mr. Malone played games on the big club is well known and obvious. Mr. Malone adds much needed physicality kills penalties and is alright on faceoffs. Mr . Malone is also very well liked by his teammates in Bakersfield as well in Edmonton. Mr. Malone isn’t expected to make the team out of camp. Mr. Malone will probably see ice time with Edmonton if or when injuries happen during the gruelling 82 game schedule as well as playoff games.
You’re reasoning about Malone is very sound – though I would add a caveat: I would change “will probably see ice time with Edmonton if or when injuries happen” to “could possibly see ice time with Edmonton only if or when injuries happen”. I think other call ups will be ahead of him.
On the other hand, your reasoning on Bouchard never addresses properly when and how Bouchard was supposed to get more ice time with the Oilers last season. He was injury cover for the 3 right D who did not get injured again after Bear returned (who Bouchard covered for for 12 games), in a shortened season, with cross border restrictions, and where the Oilers, after a slow start had to fight to get back into a playoff spot and didn’t secure home ice until mid-May. Bouchard got 2 additional games in May.
Under normal circumstances, he would have spent much more of last season in the AHL, unless in an 82 game schedule, there were more injuries. Holland has said as much several times and would have preferred a circumstance where Bouchard could have played in Bakersfield and still have been available to the big club if needed but that was impractical. Once it was decided he was staying in Edmonton, Tippett and Playfair made the line up decisions, and in their opinion for games in 2021, they believed Barrie, Larsson, Bear gave them a better chance to win each night. Doesn’t mean they were right, but they did not make that decision for any other reason.
I know the reasons that Woody played Malone – I don’t agree with them but I don’t state that they are unknown..
I know why he was signed to an NHL contract – I don’t agree with them but don’t state that they are unnkown.
Really?
“Geezus, the contract is two years, not one.
Holy hell… really? Such a small thing, it doesn’t really matter as its fully buryable and likely will be buried for the vast majority of the contract, but still, why?”
“He must have been hurt as there is no reason for Malone to play NHL games, lets (sic) alone NHL playoff games, over Shore.”
I agree he isn’t expected to make the team out of camp, but he has a chance to do it. Woodcroft is the coach now, he took 11 seconds to send out Sceviour and didn’t play Shore much at all late and in the postseason.
Malone has a clean shot at a roster spot and a coach who believes in him. That’s much more than he had a year ago.
With Nurse earning 9+ and Makar at that level, doesn’t make any sense for Bouchard to sign long term unless the money is big.
He’d be giving away upside but the “Klefbom-Contract” and a guaranteed $25MM or so (at 22 years of age) is not something to sneeze at.
I see what you’re saying, but too much downside from Bouchard’s perspective. Klef’s contract was signed in a different era and Klef himself was a weird bird — no offence in the SEL, injuries, etc. He was always a bit of a project, and though it was always said he had some offence, no one really knew whether it would come through. Of course, he developed into an excellent D.
Bouchard is of a different mould, pedigree, and doesn’t have the same injury concerns. He doesn’t even have to pop; if he can replicate this past season he’ll get a big payday IMO.
That’s what I think too. If we can figure it out here on the board I assume the agents have as well.
There might not be much to figure out soon. Boqvist, taken 8th just ahead of him, and Dobson, taken 12th just behind him, are RFA’s this year. Dobson’s new contract in particular will be very informative as he managed 51 points in 80 this past season with the Islanders. Rasmus Sandin taken 29th is also an RFA this season, but though he has played 88 games, he is not the point getter that Bouchard and Dobson are. Sean Durzi taken 52 overall is an RFA and had a good year in LA.
Bouchard, his agent and the Oilers will get a decent sense for what the market is like just based on what Bouchard has accomplished so far relative to these players. Besides $$, seeing how many of those go long term or do a bridge deal will also be very important.
100%. I think it is likely the team takes the same road they did with Nurse. Bridge deal and kick the big contract down the road.
If Bouch plays the pp next year and continues to grow, he will be in line for a huge pay day.
No doubt Bouch is a 65 plus point player next season – even if Barrie is on the team I think he approaches that.
He’s was MUCH better than a 30-40 point player this past season.
JP is on the block. Only question is who they get back
Sometimes trades that seem obvious right away aren’t so clear in hindsight and vice versa.
For the last universally applauded trade, I’d take the Lucic trade. Only looks so so at this point though.
Still a win. Allowed the team to buy out Neal and sign Hyman. Plus Looch was a negative presence in the locker room.
Right. Lucic wouldn’t have rehabilitated himself here like he did in Calgary. So really a win for both teams.
Looking at the flames cap situation Im sure theyd pay a lot to get rid of that 5+M cap hit to sign Tkachuk/Gaudreau/Mangiapane
Ask any Flames fans and you will only get one answer that they won the trade hands down.
And they will also say theyre the better team despite losing 4-1. All rubbish at the end of the day.
I still would have done it as well but it seems every time I meet a Flames fan they bring up the trade as something to rub my nose in, so as Reja mentions it’s not regarded as a clear win.
Dead cap space the next two years isn’t nothing, could be the difference in resigning Kane or JP for example.
The Kassian trade is definitely not a clear win by the Oilers.
Neil gave half a season of goal-scoring but Neal for Lucic was two massively negative value contracts, one simply had a better structure so it cost the pick and the retention to get that better structure.
The Oilers still sit with the lost pick and $2.75MM of dead cap for that trade.
Flames sit with a massively negative asset that is part of their off-season cap issues.
The funny thing is a statement that Lucic can be moved for no dead money. Yes, it could, if the flames pay a shit-ton for that to happen.
Flames fans aren’t as intelligent as Oilers fans.
If Kane comes back, Kassian as a deterrent is redundant.
I’m only speculating, but the Sens got pushed around, had a couple young guns get injured, and maybe they want a tough guy like Kassian who they *think* could play a top 9 role.
Probably there are a few teams around the league like this.
My initial impression is Foegele as the other player going back makes sense; Brown is unlikely to resign in Ottawa, and Foegele would be a fine, cost-controlled 3 LW.
I’m sensing a shifting in the tide re: Puljujarvi. I’m more down on this management crew than many and I just don’t see them stooping so low as to deal him for Brown.
There was a lot of KY>JP noise when the season ended…that seems to have died down.
Maybe someone will talk themselves into it, but any due diligence on Kassian has an awful lot of head injuries to take into account. There’s a reason he’s only fought four times in the last two seasons – he got concussed twice. The “only throw left handed” thing with Geertsen was crazy/brave, but there are serious red flags at this stage. I mean, I hope I’m wrong and I respect Kassian and hope he ends up in a good situation.
Ottawa spent a 3rd to take on 1 season of a 3M cap hit Hamonic. There were multiple canucks commenting about the locker room getting a breath of fresh air after the trade.
Sens paid assets for a cap dump thats bad in the locker room who played a total of 43 games last season. When it comes to Dorion, never say never.
Kassian + Foegel + prospect/pick (no A-listers) for Brown + 2.35 in cap space would be amazing. Maybe 1.35 in space since you need a replacement 4th liner.
I didn’t realize Hamonic was such an issue in a dressing room.
I didnt either and it actually probably isnt even be fair to say he is but those are just the reported comments from players.
I think LT is right to be wary, but you bring up a good point. This is Dorion, not a buddy of his in Stan Bowman or a smart team like Carolina.
so Kassian with a pick or Samurokov for Anderson. Time to freak out
I’d do Kassian and Samorukov for Anderson. I’d try to get Allen added to the deal.
Kassian and Samorukov for Anderson and Allen.
Highly doubt Montreal goes for that
I think Western Canada would be an ideal landing spot for Ethan Bear.
I’ll cheer for him wherever he ends up.
Ethan Bear doesn’t play for the Oilers anymore. He was traded to Carolina for Warren Foegele.
I would include Seattle on that list.
Was listening to “the other” channel yesterday and it was mentioned that the Toronto Maple Leafs have a staff of 10 Analytics people; The Edmonton Oilers… 2.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have 8 people in the dept of Player Development; The Edmonton Oilers 1 ( I actually think they said 0)
COMON WOODY! You can do this!
The Leafs have a lot more moolah to throw around for their buddies.
Very true. And with all of that money and all of those resources they’re still making terrible mistakes on player acquisition.
I’ll bite. Can i get 3 terrible acquisitions from TO this past 2 seasons. I’ll spot you Mrazek although the implosion was a bit surprising.
Why 2 seasons? They really haven’t had enough cap flexibility to do anything “terrible” in that time have they?
Mrazek and Ritchie off the top of my head.
That’s my point
Ah, I’m a little slow. I thought you were making the point that the analytics team was on the job saving them from bad decisions.
Yes Mrazek was pretty bad. I don’t think anyone was expecting it.
I’ll throw some names out there and you’ll let me know if they were sound acquisitions from the leafs and their vaunted brain trust of analysts.
Marleau
Thornton
Vesey
Michael Hutchinson
Tyson Barrie
John Tavares
Nick Foligno
Kyle Clifford (twice!!!!)
Players the leafs dumped:
Kadri
Seth Jarvis (from the Marleau dumping)
Mason Marchment
I know there have been successes on the leafs side. But if you throw enough crap against a wall, something will stick. Overall, analytics haven’t help them get past the first round.
That’s a good list. I don’t agree with it fully but that’s part of the fun. I think most of the issues the Leafs have revolves around their 3 big contracts much like the Oil. Very tough time to have a flat cap world after signing those.
The main point I’m seeing is that because it didn’t lead them past round 1+ it was a bad decision. Marleau and Thornton were not a drag, both got contracts post Leafs, and from a non-analytic standpoint, were awesome mentors to Matthews and Marner. I’d say those were astute. The trade to get rid of Marleau, hard to say that was analytics and more a young GM and capologist issue. Point taken tho.
Hutchinson – was only ever signed for 700K so even if analytics picked him out, it was a no risk endeavour imo.
Barrie actually did quite well with Toronto. Very astute pickup for a problematic player. As others posted, the Kadri trade only worked out this year, overall it was in TO’s favour (debatable) until 3 years later.
Tavares, signed by previous regime (well, Lou) but it’s only become a problem recently, and that’s only because he’s overpaid. I think analytics would’ve shown a top flight first line centre which for years he has been. He makes their team better full stop.
Foligno and Clifford – agreed, satisfied the truculence angle people felt they lacked but Clifford was always bad and Foligno was a plug in his short tenure.
Jarvis – no way to know they wouldve taken him, much like the Oil and Barzal.
Marchment – 100% miss. This one is big because isn’t this the point of analytics? to find guys like that. Maybe a change of scenery gave him a kick in the pants analytics couldn’t cover. They certainly got it with Bunting, so Marchment was a surprise.
Cap constraints played a part in the Leafs trading Kapanen back to Toronto in 2020, but they also felt his play dropped off from 18/19 to 19/20. His next season in Pittsburgh, he goes on to get 30 points in 40 games, but had an up and down season this past year. He is now an RFA on which Pittsburgh needs to make a call. Interestingly one of the players Toronto received in the trade, Rodriques almost immedialty went back to Pittsburgh as a free agent and put up 14 points (35 games) and 43 points (82 games) the past two seasons. Another prospect in the trade, Hollander, ended up back in Pittsburgh as well as Toronto traded him back to get a player that Seattle would take in the draft.
The key for Toronto in the trade was getting a first round pick from the Pens (Rodion Amirov). Sadly Amirov has been dealing with a brain tumor since February. That certainly is nothing that could be foreseen by Toronto.
No way to know how Amirov may have, or still might, progress, but Toronto gave up a a 24 year old very good player who was drafted 22nd overall himself effectively for futures. Even without the very unfortunate illness to Amirov, it hard to say that Pittsburgh would not currently be ahead of the game with Toronto on this trade, since even healthy, it is not certain that Amirov would have been on the Toronto roster by start of next season. Hopefully Amirov fully recovers from this and can lead a healthy life and if really lucky return to a professional career.
The Brian Lawton hire is going to be massive.
Here is hoping…..
Research is enlightening. https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/oilers
The draftfloor trade last summer that gave us Bourgault and Munzenberger was a clear win. But, it was also a draft pick trade.
The draft floor trade in 2020 that got us Savoie and Tullio also looks prescient these near 2 years later.
The Neal-Lucic trade in 2019 was a 100% win for the Oilers.
Beyond that, we get into the “Meh” to “Ugggh” trade period for Chiarelli.
Marroon was a Win. the Purcell salary dump to Florida was also a win.
I believe the Kassian for Scrivens trade was also a win, for both the Oilers and Kassian. The next contract… not so much, but that’s okay. The trade was still good value.
The truth is there are value trades for the Oilers over the last number of years. But there has been too many that are not comparatively. 6 good value trades out of 46 trades total is… horrific. 13% good, and the rest either lateral or bad? That’s a lot of burned resources, and squandered assets.
The Neal-Lucic trade was a clear win for the Flames,
They got a useful player while the Oilers got significant dead cap.
Lucic has been useful insofar as he’s accepted a diminished role on the Flames. It’s not commensurate with his salary.
Moreover, the Flames haven’t won diddly squat with him.
Of course, the Oilers have been paying part of that salary and Calgary can dispose of Lucic with no dead cap.
And the Flames also got a draft pick in the deal.
Moreover, the Oilers haven’t won diddly squat with Neal.
Hypothetically, if the Oilers played the Flames in the playoffs, I wonder who would win?
Lol. Yes of course. The oilers are covering 750k of a 5.25 million dollar contract.
So Lucic’s 4.5 million to play a fringe 3rd or 4th line role..so maybe 10 minutes a night is clearly a win, win for the Flames.
Last time I checked, the Flames got turfed by the oilers this year in convincing fashion. Some might say they were curb stomped. I wouldn’t personally.
Last year they didn’t even make the playoffs. And the year before that they were turfed by Dallas.
As far as I’m concerned, there was no winner in this trade. Trying to justify it otherwise its folly.
Actually, Lucic is $5.25 MM against the Flames cap. HIs full cap/salary is $6 million per season, with the Oilers retaining $750,000 of it. So instead of the Oilers paying $6 million to have Lucic on their roster, this past season and next season, the Oiler are paying ~$2.6 million to not have Lucic or Neal on their roster, that gave them $3.4 million to spend on another player. Lucic will be off Calgary’s books next season, while the Oilers will continue to carry ~$1.9 MM for 2 more seasons after 22/23. Far from ideal, but better than the Oilers having Lucic on the team for the last 4 years of his contract.
Thank you for clarifying that for me.
This is the correct explanation of what the trade accomplished trying to repair two terrible decisions made a few years earlier.
As far as I know it was Lucic and his agent who were the ones that sold Calgary on him becoming a Flame. Things got so bad for Lucic the 1st year when Peters was the Coach that he seriously was contemplating retiring. I wonder what would of happened if Lucic stayed in Edmonton would the Fans have drove him to retirement?
I’d argue the ‘Neal dead cap’ played better than Lucic in the Oilers-Flames playoff series.
Zero points each, and Dead Cap didn’t have to waste 8 minutes of ice-time each game to do it.
If that is your take, I’m even more convinced the Oilers won the trade. Dead cap plus Zach Hyman for an overpaid 4th line plug with a sense of entitlement.
It’s clear you don’t watch many Flames games. Your perspective is horribly skewed.
How’s Rafferty doing? How’s Seattle’s “weaponized cap space” going? When did the rubber hit the road for the Oilers this spring? How did the OEL trade turn out?
No wonder no one respects your opinion or character.
The man also hasnt looked at calgarys capfriendly page either. Flames could probably keep the band together/improve if it werent for Lucics 5M this season, or also Treliving adding Toffoli at the end of the season.
I think it would be fair to say that both teams got a useful player for a period of time, and both players were not worth their cap hits. The oilers bought out Neal, and the Flames kept playing Lucic. The Oilers couldn’t buy out Lucic for as little as they bought out Neal, and saved cap space by doing so when they felt they needed it. The fact the Oilers got screwed on the draft pick is too bad, and hurts the value for the Oilers, but this is hindsight. The value at the time of the trade was still good, and I highly doubt fans of the Oilers or Oilers Management would have rather had Milan for the duration of his contract.
Its interesting to review both players’ performance since the trade. Neither is good. But the contract structure of Lucic’s deal made it buy-out proof. So the Flames had to play him, regardless of his performance. He played lower-tier competition for 3 years on the flames and came out a net -23 during those years.
Neal put up points playing with Connor and Leon, but was a -20 in that first season. After that, he was relegated to a 3rd/4th line role and was only -2 in his last Oilers season. The Oilers bought him out to free the cap space because as a player he wasn’t worth carrying anymore. And the team’s performance improved overall.
From a value for cap spent, it looks pretty even over the course of the 3 years for each player. The oilers put some money into the kitty to offset the cap difference, and the draft pick sent over clearly makes this an overall win for Calgary over that time period.
However, the Flames still have to pay Milan for another year, and if his play doesn’t deteriorate anymore, the on-ice performance portion is likely to shift more heavily in the Oilers favor. If the wheels fall off for Lucic, it could move back into a win for the Oilers.
I am honestly surprised at how fairly balanced the outcome of this trade is, even with the draft pick to the flames. When I saw the performance numbers for both players… well it was clear neither team really won the trade. It’s more like which team lost less badly.
I agree that no one really wins a trade like this but who loses least.
IMO that is the Flames because they had no dead cap, got a somewhat useful player and a pick.
Lucic is due a signing bonus next month and then has only $1 million coming in actual cash left on his contract.
Should be easy to move.
You said at the top of this post that the Flames clearly won the trade. Now, not one hour later you’re singing a different tune.
Unbelievably brutal.
Lucic’s cap hit, like Keith, is the issue. Not the money owed to him. Let’s just see how easy it’ll be for him to get moved.
Trolling is an art and this guy while dedicated just hasnt gotten past eating the crayons.
“The Neal-Lucic trade was a clear win for the Flames”
LOL
In the space of a single conversation you went from “The Neal-Lucic trade was a clear win for the Flames” to “I agree that no one really wins a trade like this but who loses least”.
Geez, I think you need to delete some files, your memory is getting very slow.
The Oilers in 21/22 had $3.4 million in cap space that they wouldn’t have had if they were paying Lucic $6 million. That cap space contributed significantly to them having enough to sign Hyman. Hyman is almost certainly not an Oiler today if Lucic was still on the roster. Meanwhile, Calgary, this past season, got Milan Lucic for 82 regular season games and 12 playoff games, who was actually an overall detriment to the team. He was less useful to the Flames than Kassian was to the Oilers, and Kassian missed 24 games.
And yes they may be able to move Lucic before free agency (not sure if bonus payment schedule moved relative to all the other shifts), but what will it cost Calgary to get a team to take on the $6 million cap hit for a player they will have to have on their 23 man roster. And Lucic’s M-NTC is an 8 team list, so Calgary won’t have a big market. Can’t imagine Lucic is willing to go to any of the teams that are in the position of eating $6 million in cap hit for him except maybe Anaheim since he played in LA.
Actually after June 30, his trade list jumps to 10 teams. Still a pretty narrow market.
Buying out players is not a win in my opinion it’s just lazy General Managing. The Oilers are paying 4.2 million in dead cap. For 4.2 million there’s your Goalie, Lucic and Sekera are stilling playing years after the Buy-out of Sekera and trade of Lucic. Your telling me no team in the league trades for Sekera with some shrewd General Managing.
Almost every GM and certainly every team in the league (except the newcomers, Vegas and Seattle) has made use of the buyout at one time or another. It has been done 112 times since the end of the 2013 season. That works out to about 11 per season or 1 per team every 3 years. Even GM’s that are thought to be “shrewd” have made use of the option. Steve Yzerman did it in Tampa and has done it again twice recently in Detroit. Joe Sakic has bought out 4 contracts in his tenure with one as recently as 2018. Bill Zito had done it recently in Florida.
Kevin Shattenkirk was traded with salary retained. He then signed another contract with Rangers and that was bought out by them 2 seasons later. In that one, it was a rare circumstance of the GM that both signed and bought out the contract being the same guy (Jeff Gorton). Usually its a new GM having to address a former GM’s signing of a player whose performance dropped off due to age (eg. Lucic) or injury (eg. Sekera). And Shattenkirk has gone on to win a cup with the Lightning and sign a nice deal in Anaheim where he played reasonably well. Meanwhile Gorton becoming the new GM in Montreal is considered a coup.
Every single player in the league is tradeable if you are willing to pay enough. Lucic was tradeable because the Oilers retained, gave up an asset and took back a massive negative value deal. Kassian is tradeable if we pay enough for someone to take him.
Sekera would have been tradeable at a MASSIVE cost – it probably would have taken two first round picks plus more for a team to take up multiple years at $5.5MM for a player that had become replacement level.
Based on LT and BM rankings, I’m going to dare to dream big
Oilers trade UP 4 spots and select
JIMMY SNUGGERUDE !
He’d be a good pick
#29 Ryan Chesley D
#29 Owen Beck F
#29 Noah Ostlund F
Ok. Can you say more? Why would these be good choices at that spot?
Our host ranks them #54, #52, #47 respectively.
Mackenzie ranks Chesley and Ostlund better at 25 and 22, but Beck only at 33.
So their value at that spot isn’t clear.
Some of the scouting services have mentioned that picks 15-60 are nearly interchangeable fwiw.
Great stuff on the lists LT… I don’t recall a year when yours and BM’s was this close. That’s pretty cool that all the effort you put in is shown in a small chart. I still like comparing it to Button’s too.
Just a quick note, the last few days the main lowetide.ca page wasn’t showing the daily post. I had to wait for Oilerhockey.com to update with your link. Today I logged in and everything was there. Not sure if it’s a change or if it’s intentional, just letting you know.
Cheers!
I’ve noticed it too, not sure what’s going on (shocking!) but will flush cache! (That’s my go to).
lol.
Randle with no glasses, rubs his eyes…..HMMM…LT publishes a book and within a week he’s flush with cash…….EXCELLENT!
I’ve found that the new post won’t show up unless I’m logged in.
Who are the top 5 Oilers offensive scoring prospects?
Three if five is any kind of a problem.
In no particular order
Holloway
Savoie
Petrov
Bourgault
Tullio
Lavoie
What about McLeod?
This likely isn’t a popular pick due to his status as a project, but I would support picking Sam Rinzel with either the 1st or a 2nd if Holland trades down. After narrowing down my draft shortlist for the year, he stands out as a bit of a unique prospect that, if developed properly, could play a key part in extending EDM’s window of contention down the road. Offensively talented, big body, great instincts, late birthday, RD that’s committed to the NCAA route. Won’t help the team for a few years but is a good asset to have bubbling under the surface.
Wouldn’t be surprised or disappointed to see them go with a guy like Liam Ohgren or Owen Beck, though.
ps: I like the defence prospects a lot since Bouchard/Broberg got drafted.
When was the last time an Oilers prospect astonished the NHL aside from Draisaitl/McDavid?
Prospects seem to get hyped before/on draft weekend, the first 2 weeks of training camp then vanish into the ether – only to return 2-3 seasons later as busts/wounded players.
McLeod is my favourite player in years. He might keep developing until he’s nearly an all star.
Last fleecing that comes to mind is Chia with Maroon for pocket lint. We were hoping for 5 more of those types of trades. We got, less than that…
I think this might be the winner… and although it seemed steep the Talbot trade addressed a serious need, and he was quality for a time. Although one could argue it wasn’t our GM that did the work, more so the old GM throwing us a bone, based on the rumored ask for the goalie.
“When was the last time Edmonton won a trade by so much it was obvious when it happened? I’ll hang up and listen.”
…………. crickets……….
winning trades isn’t always a 50/50 proposition. Most times one teams trading from a stronger position then the other
Lucic for James Neal looked like an obvious win in real time…. Randle was VERY excited….. (but in hindsight, not as certain as to be obvious)
Yea value wise, just okay. That conditional the NHL ruled against us tipped things from great to good, the buyout to just okay. Still a big win to me, the Lucic contract was almost impossible to move and I was tired of hating on Lucic and seeing his linemates struggle.
“When was the last time Ken Holland fleeced another general manager?”
Bear/Foegele
Jones. Picks & CapSpace / Keith
Anton Forsberg on waivers to Carolina
OH…wait…..I thought you said “when was the last time Ken Holland pleased another general manager”
Don’t forget Gagner and two seconds for AA…
Rick Dhaliwal reporting the Canucks are in talks with Ethan Bear.
Cool. Good luck Ethan.
Great – now every time he’s on the ice for Vancouver, the Oilers can be the one to send the puck into his end of the D-zone and then pressure him to cough up the puck.
I think he will have a career. Vancouver would be an outstanding spot for him.
This trade would be very revealing about Bear’s value as a player. He can’t be sheltered in any meaningful way, and he won’t be healthy scratched either. I wish him the best.
Ironic that they gave up on Rafferty and are talking about bringing in Bear….
Material Elvis wins the thread!
would be almost worth it to dig up some old HH posts 😉
“However, when someone says “small” sweetener the mind wanders to ”
No No NO…Not KY
I think Stevia is who he means.
Some kind of kizmit occurs when a spot on the McKenzie list matches exactly with a spot on the Lowetide list.
Filip Mesar it is then!
~ When you look at actual results (including injury, family issues, timidity, weak glove hand, etc) the Oilers haven’t done all that well recently with Finns, Swedes, Norwegians, etc……You know, players that speak Dutch.~
Which is ironic given the name of our GM
Nobody believes Ken Holland is Dutch.
But he’s never said he’s not NOT Dutch.
“Apparently his entire $3.2 million cap hit is heading somewhere with a small sweetener in exchange for a useful player.”…. is farcical.
Kass and JP for a useful player is possible.
I think it is reasonable for one to question what type of value Ken Holland may get in transactions and even be fearful of a fleecing.
At the same time, absolute speculation (i.e. not something concrete from the likes of Friedman, Seravelli, etc.) does not equate to management action or thought.
Stauffer saying that HE thinks Anderson would be a good fit if Kane isn’t resigned does NOT equate to the Oilers trading for hit at full cap and giving up the 1st and a top prospect.
How did Kenny do in the Keith trade again? Like the player, hated the deal.
Stauffer is a weather vane. He gives the general feeling from the Oilers’ perspective, but that wind could swing around at any moment.
I usually listen when he says something like, “I wouldn’t be surprised if…”.
Stauffer can be but, of course, he also speaks much of his own thoughts that have nothing to do with being an ear-piece for the org.
Each and every day on his show he speculates things – more often than not, its simply personal musings.
The national insiders had the Keith thing well in advance – that wasn’t something soft-played by Stauff.
As an Oilers employee, it’s more what he CAN’T say than what he can. He’s allowed his musings, but I’m pretty sure he can’t hit the nail on the head. Much like a stock trader has to be careful what they say.
Imagine if he did a little “I wouldn’t be surprised if Edmonton traded Jones, a conditional 2nd Rounder and no salary retained for Duncan Keith” a week before hand? But he’s done this with various UFAs and absolutely been right.
I like Anderson….and Campbell…..or pretty much any goalie the Leafs have rejected due to (first round) premature ejection (inability to rise to the occasion)
I would take Anderson or Campbell for my team any day. It’s not their fault the team dropped the ball all the time.
The reference is to Josh not Freddie.
Agreed tho.
2017 – Zegras by himself makes this look like a pure McKenzie win as of today. At the same time, on the day of the draft, it was known that Zegras, Boldy, Caufield, the skill forwards, would arrive sooner and with impact. Broberg is right on schedule, ahead of Klefbom at the same age and stage and could close this gap within a few years. With that skill-set, including his elite skating, and size, he is trending to be a legit top 4LD and we don’t know how high he’ll get.
Dobson got a “head start” in the NHL, but only due to age and not being eligible for the AHL. I take Bouch and where he is going every day.
That man is looking at 65 plus points next season.
I remember reading sometime that if the Oilers just drafted McKenzie ‘s list from the year 2006 on they would have had a better team but its hard to know with development of players
A 1st line centre always has more value than a 2nd pairing D.
Always.
I wonder if he would have been 1st line center on the Oilers? Those fancy goals are just something we aren’t used to seeing in Edmonton.
Zegras would have no choice but to be a winger in Edmonton. He also is mostly another playmaker who doesn’t shoot.
Bah, wouldn’t trade him straight up for Rafferty…
Chris Pronger trade would be my pick.
Obviously him coming here, not the exit.
Ruling handed down:
It’s not “obvious” if you have to explain it.
You’re welcome. 🙂
I have no comeback.
The Oilers were the only team with cap room post lockout with the imposition of the hard cap.
To win trades, one has to manage cap space as an asset.