Lots of news out of the Oilers offices yesterday. Dave Manson and Glen Gulutzan have been added to Jay Woodcroft’s staff, meaning the major coaching players from last season have returned. Mike Smith is likely to spend the next season on LTIR, that’s good news for Stuart Skinner who will go to camp with a job in hand. Miles to go, but things are coming into view.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The 2022 NHL draft has a chance to be unique in Edmonton Oilers history.
- New DNB: Tyler Wright Q&A
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Is this Oilers’ year to find a world-class agitator in NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Which Oilers are most likely to return next season? Who goes?
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
NEWS AND NOTES
- Darren Dreger has Mike Smith going on LTIR next season, and Ville Husso/Jack Campbell as Ken Holland’s targets. I think Campbell will be here as No. 1 this season.
- Jesse Puljujarvi was all over the rumour wire yesterday. Ottawa and several other teams are interested, but the mentioned return isn’t close to good enough. Holland can’t afford to bleed talent for no return.
- Archie Henderson is out as pro scouting head, and that could be good news for the Oilers if the organization spends the money needed to quickly put together the kind of scouting/analytics department that would have convinced Holland to keep Puljujarvi if it had been created a year ago.
- Nothing is shaking in the Evander Kane contract situation, and that could go on for some time. It’s possible the Oilers miss out on other options if Holland is willing to wait out the Kane-SJS battle, he could get caught with a pile of money and no target if another team swoops in. Some real rapids there.
BUYOUT DAY
It’s buyout day in the NHL. It actually goes for some time, but we should get some indication from several teams sometime today. The Oilers are trying to trade Zack Kassian, personally I think the sweetener would be more painful than a buyout but we’ll see.
POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER 2022-23
This roster has Mike Smith and Oscar Klefbom on LTIR, and is less than $50,000 from the cap. Signed free agents are Jack Campbell, Brett Kulak, Andreas Athanasiou, Curtis Lazar, Dominik Simon. Warren Foegele was traded for a pick, Jesse Puljujarvi and Zack Kassian dealt for Connor Brown.
I’m not sure this is a better team, and am certain this team gave up plenty of future. I do like keeping Tyson Barrie, adding Brett Kulak and bringing in Jack Campbell. Edmonton will score enough without Evander Kane and Jesse Puljujarvi, and keeping the puck out of the net is important. Perhaps this area will improve enough for Edmonton to go deeper into the postseason.
JESSE’S FLIGHT
I think many people are looking at the trade of Jesse Puljujarvi as a downbeat. I can’t join them in this opinion. I’ve seen a JP situation many times over the last 20 years, and it’s more about the organization than the player. In the next hours, Puljujarvi will take flight with a new team, finding a place where he (hopefully) belongs.
I’m reminded of an item I wrote about Magnus Paajarvi (one of thoe RE reviews at the end of a season) and his possible future. You may recall I chose an artist for each RE series, and then a song for each player. In Paajarvi’s case, I chose Born to Run by Bruce Springsteen: “It’s about speed (Paajarvi’s crazy fast) and it’s about finding a better place than the one you’re leaving, without really knowing anything about what it looks like. I think that’s Paajarvi now. He might end up on a scoring, a checking line, or in Columbus. But he’s in a better place.”
I believe Jesse Puljujarvi will soon jet off to that place, and I sincerely hope he spends 20+ years happy there. Life tests you sometimes, and surely the big Finn has been tested. It’s time for him to build his story in another town.
Very nice job on the comment counter, LT and/or Ryan.
Can see the full results of Godot’s poll below. I think it’s helpful even just in general.
I do think there’s a danger that Lazar is an Oiler next season as per LT’s roster above. Holland has been pretty consistent in his search for speed so it would be a little surprising if it came to fruition. This team has gotten nothing but faster and faster over his tenure and I hope that continues. Lazar’s hard on pucks though. That might sway management.
@CompleteHkyNews
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13h
Happy Rick DiPietro Day!
The New York Islanders owe Rick DiPietro $1.5 million today and every July 1st until 2028!
*If you don’t believe this…look it up for yourself!*
@EricJFriesen
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#Oilers prospect Matvey Petrov had 90 points in 63 OHL games last season Projected 1st overall pick Shane Wright had 94 points in 63 OHL games. They were both age 18 in the second-half of the season. It’s pretty impressive the Oilers 6th round pick kept pace with Wright.
Elks win! Elks win! It’s a Canada Day miracle!
Poll: if you have to choose between Yamamoto and Puljujarvi, same contract, identical terms to both, who do you choose.
(I hope LT or Ryan will tell us the total number of votes cast, because open interest (number of votes) is as significant as the difference measure.
“+” for Yamamoto
“-” for Puljujarvi.
I cannot upvote or downvote my own post, so my vote is for Puljujarvi.
It’s got to be Puljujarvi at equal contracts.
On-ice even strength GF-GA:
Puljujarvi 64% (55-31)
Yamamoto 49% (61-63)
That’s a 32 more goals against for Yamamoto!
Yamamoto even strength GA/60: 3.14
Puljujarvi even strength GA/60: 1.94
That is not foolproof. People can downvote in those subposts. The number of votes would be nice to have, but a relative poll will do if the powers that be don’t tell us the number of votes cast.
I voted for Puljujarvi btw
I’ve thought all along that the one thing Holland/Oilers can’t control is whether the kid wants to play in Edmonton long term. It appears not.
I’d be happy with a deal centered around Connor Brown. If we can push Kassian out at the same time all the better
I vote the opposite guy that would bring the biggest return.
I didn’t vote, hard to decide. Just wanted to share one of my favorite memories this season was early on when Jesse and Hyman we’re doing a post gave media availability and Zack was just laughing because you could here all the fans chanting Bison King in the background. What fun!
It was awesome.
Yamamoto for me.
I think he’s a more effective player. Is used on the PK. Is younger and seems more engaged.
How Puljujarvi didn’t see PK time is a mystery with no answer.
Matheson says it’s because he isn’t a great defensive player lol
I dunno, he played 1:29 per game. Far from none.
Leon 3:50/game
Connor 3:43
Nuge 3:28
Kane 2:28
Hyman 2:24
Puljujarvi 1:29
Yamamoto 0:49
McLeod 0:47
Foegele 0:33
How much more would you have played him?
JP,
Pujo played 1:25 PKTOI for the entire season. The only players with less time were Perlini and Benson. Even Kassian played more PK last season.
I read PP, my mistake. Thanks for pointing it out.
My apologies 😉
I also would keep Puljujarvi over Yams. Tough call though. They both have strengths and weaknesses. I’d also do everything possible to get him more fluent and thus comfortable in his environment. In fact that would be a requirement. And of course this choice is based on the premise he would be happy to stay.
I think he has more upside than Yams. You don’t give up till the player stops improving. Now the org can point to the second half of the season as a step backward, but even with those numbers, the season as a whole was an improvement. Too early to pull the cord.
However, the player doesn’t seem to want to stay. And if that is the case, the org has no choice but to move on.
So Vancouver realized there is no market for Boeser so they just decided to overpay him. Ha!!
Most goals per game by right wingers since Brock Boeser’s NHL debut in March 2017
David Pastrnak 0.53
Nikita Kucherov 0.49
Mikko Rantanen 0.45
Vladimir Tarasenko 0.41
Patrick Kane 0.39
Brock Boeser 0.37
You watch a lot of Canuck’s games. Is this a smart move for them?
I think so but it’s has to be assessed in context.
Boeser was due a $7.5 million QO so this is a reasonable compromise.
In announcing the deal today, Patrick Allvin went out of his way to laud Emilie Castonguay for pulling this deal together.
You may recall she is the heavily analytics based former agent the Canucks hired last year. I would guarantee she sussed this out exhaustively.
One also has to recognize that Boeser has had to deal with some calamity in his career thus far. First it was a check into the open bench door that injured his back, then a nasty check to the wrist that required surgery (ala Holloway) that affected his shot for more than a year.
Last season he had to deal with the declining health and eventual death of his father from cancer, Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s.
Having said all that, if he remains healthy, 30+ goals should be easily achievable rendering his new contract at least fair value if not a bargain.
Thanks for the response. Even though I live in Canuck country these days I don’t watch them unless they are playing the Oilers.
I look forward to you flip flopping on this deal like you did for OEL.
Some other interesting Canucks news today.
They’ve added both Mike Yeo and Jeremy Coliton to their coaching ranks.
Rutherford seems to have a blank cheque.
There is no such thing as interesting Canucks news. Mediocrity, failure, and futility. Boring.
This is true.
You should post more.
Woah, for second there I thought you were talking to HH. My heart skipped a beat.
Lot of money for a guy that hasn’t hit 50 points in 3 seasons despite tons and tons of pp time
He does put the puck in the net though. Fiala just got almost 8M. This league has always over paid for goals.
I don’t recall who did the math…but back a few years ago someone figured that a goal was worth 1.5 times the value of a first assist and twice the value of a second assist.
Makes sense.
You literally just pulled that out of your behind
The hardest thing to do in hockey is score goals.
Even harder is scoring goals at even strength.
If you can’t accept that…I don’t care.
Shorthanded Goals win the day.
Do you have that study handy?
Here is one but there are many others.
https://statsbystokes.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/what-is-the-objective-value-of-an-assist/comment-page-1/
I would think inquiring minds could look this stuff up themselves but it seems propagating narratives is more important.
One would think the poster who brought up the subject would provide without request.
If every poster was required to provide statistical evidence by way of an analytic study to support a position, there would be no one here.
For example, Leadfarmer asserts Boeser is overpaid despite overwhelming and stated evidence that is likely not the case.
Have you asked him to support that position, which he brought up, to provide evidence of that “without request”?
If not…why not?
Leadfarmer expressed his own opinion, you cited someone else’s. Stop being obtuse, this is embarrassing, even for you. Don’t you ever get tired of having no class?
HH you referenced a study and didn’t provide a link. Leadfarmer was providing his opinion. Boeser is a good player but there is risk. That cap number stands out like the hood ornament on a Jaguar.
Lol. “A lot of people are saying”.
Fiala just put up two of Boeser seasons in one despite very low quality of teammates. Lots of Frederick Gadreau Kulikov Brodin and a good but raw
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8477942
Fiala passed Boeser on the side of the road, drove around him in circles and ran him over
Fiala has one season in the last 5 where he outscored Boeser. If Holland was talking about signing Fiala all the talk here would be about signing him at his peak. Boeser has scored consistently in the 25 – 30 goal range. I suspect this is what that costs.
you realize we have the internet to fact check this. Try again.
Not sure what you want me to fact check. CapFriendly shows the goals. That is what I am referencing. How much such a player costs this off season will be known in a few weeks.
Try all the way back to 19-20 season.
in fact Fiala beat Boeser 2/3 of the last seasons and a year ago Boeser beat him by 3 goals despite playing 6 more games
I said the last 5 seasons so why not start there?
What does the hockey world think about Max Domi, has he heads into UFA season?
Is he a candidate to sign a one year contract and play with a great center and then go at UFA season with better numbers and a $85M cap?
I like Domi. Good skill, speed, and compete. His temper is the only thing that worries me. Maybe he’s settled down with age.
Does Derek Lalonde look like a James Bond villain to anyone else?
According to DNB, Puljujaravi hasn’t asked for a trade(don’t know how to link the article). Strange times.
Here is the link in the Athletic.
Thanks 👍🏽
Makes you wonder about Spector, what a guy.
Spector = 3rd rate hack.
Since DNB got that info directly from Holland, does that make Spector look like he might have missed the “Mark” with his article?
I just re-read Spector’s article not one sourced quote in the entire article. Does Sportsnet have editorial standards or is it all opinion pieces?
Does it say he is willing to sign for around $2.25 M to stay in Edmonton next season?
There are lots of ways to ask for a trade without asking for a trade.
No, but it does say he’s not happy to play on the 3rd line.
Which among other things is probably also affects his salary expectations.
Brock Boesser just signed a 3 year $20M deal. Scored 46 points last season. What does that make JP’s 36 points worth to an arbitrator?
Pretty sure that nails the problem right there.
Not $6.65M, since Puljujarvi set a career high with 36 points and Boeser has had 45+ for 5 years running. But yeah, pretty sure the arbitrator would settle somewhere north of $3M.
Puljujarvi’s best move is to file for arbitration, and for he and his agent not to talk.
Damage control after seeing the offers. Spector and Gazzola not doing the team any favors.
Holland doesn’t strike me as someone who would lie about that kind of thing.
What kind of things do you think he would lie about? 😉
Being born in Holland.
The True price of a vacuum cleaner?
Right😉
No kidding they could of twisted it 180 where several teams would be bidding against one in another. Maybe this Gazzola is in the closet about his true feelings for the Flames.
Gazzola’s comments seemed at least careful and measured.
It was Spector who did the damage. Saying JP’s only worth a 3rd or at most a 2nd on the basis of independent scouts. Saying he’s a play killer from the mouths of McDavid and Draisaitl. Scoffing at his positive analytics.
Hearing these things, I’d pull any reasonable offer if I were a GM.
It’s one thing for Spector to offer his opinion. It’s another to speak as if he has special insight.
What a twit.
You may have misspelled twat.
Maybe Spector secretly wants Jesse to stay so he trashes his trade value, since in the DNB article It doesn’t sound like Holland would trade him just for a pick.
I absolutely don’t get the trade-JP drive.
he’s an RFA. Sign him cheap for a year or two. That’s what the cap world looks like.
I don’t care if everyone hates him (which I doubt, classic Edmonton speculation), he’s still proven over and over again that he can push the river on the third line, on his own.
he doesn’t have that scoring touch, so don’t play him with McDiety.
just let him do his thing on the third line. It’s not his fault there isn’t a top line RW on the team.
of course, any trade is a good trade based on return. But if they are selling him for 50 cents on the dollar. It’s obviously a mistake.
futhermore, has Holland never played poker (or any game)?? Why not pump his tires at the end-of-season presser to drive his value up??
don’t lead with “we aren’t sure how good a hockey player JP is” if you are planning on shopping him…
very odd situation.
thesis, he’s worth a few million to push the river, with say McLeod, on the third line.
Maybe Holland doesn’t want to offend any of his Peers by winning a trade.
What if JP won’t sign another one or two year deal with Edmonton? Just let him rot?
That would be the player’s choice.
The player also has the arb hammer and can force a settlement which would almost assuredly be north of $3M.
What if he files for arbitration and is awarded a $4M+ contract? Are you happy with that?
Yep. Though I expect arbitration will be more like $3 million than $4 million.
For $3M I would keep him, especially if the rumored return of a 2nd round draft pick is true.
I believe Holland made a deal last go around. Something to the effect of, if Jesse comes back gives it his all and after the 2 year contract expires he still wants out Holland would accommodate him.
Yes there were definitely rumblings in the media about that exact situation. There’s stuff that goes on behind the scenes that we aren’t privy to as fans.
The thing is that signing him cheap isn’t that easy. If they go to arbitration he probably gets a 1 year deal of $3-3.5M. If he produces well next year then he’ll be looking for at least $5M for his next contract, which the Oilers can’t afford (especially if they sign Kane or similar). If next year looks like this year, his qualifying offer for 23/24 is 110% of what he makes next season, which is way too much for a third line wing that doesn’t kill penalties and is on PP2.
I like JP a lot and hope he’s on the team next season. That said, contending teams with an expensive core flush good players when they start getting expensive. Pittsburgh did it. Chicago did it. Tampa did it. Toronto did it. And we’re going to have to get use to the Oilers doing it now that they’re in their window.
The idea is too find the next Maroon if the Kane cost is to much. Find a bigger body that drives to the net opens up ice for Leon and Connor. This player is able to work the corners knows how to tip shots and doesn’t have rock hands. Grab Crouse out of Phoenix and poof we have a 25 goal scorer.
The trick is finding the next maroon, not signing the spent one. Any punk can find the established players, and they almost always pay for having the proof no brainered
It’s really not that hard but you have to actually put some elbow grease into it.
There are only two books worth reading: Gzowski’s The Game of Our Lives, and Evel Ways: A Daring Approach to Life the Attitude of Evel Knievel.
However! I am seeing chatter about LT’s draft book. This is clearly on the same tier as these other two epic tomes.
Did I miss the details? When can I buy? Where can I buy? (Apologies if this has been previously shared, I have been busy building a motorcycle ramp over a canyon near my place.)
I will have something on twitter and here on Monday. Finalizing some links, etc.
I do not really care if JP the player gets traded so long as fair value is returned.
I am worried that the Oilers never win when they trade young/developing players.
I am confused that management and local media consistently telegraph trades and crater the value of Oilers players before making trades. Do other teams/local MSM also do this so consistently?
How about Magnus Paajarvi and a 2nd for David Perron? That was a good one by MacT.
MacT just hired on with the Blues as a assistant.
I didn’t know Craig Berube needed someone to stand over his shoulder and monitor his performance….
Yeah that was bizarre but MacT knows his Hockey. The St.Loo Hockey community may be small compared to Canadian teams but they are knowledgeable and passionate.
Sorry, LT, Jesse won’t be going to a better place in N.A. unless it’s to a team that features Finnish friends, or Jesse learns to overcome that which is separating himself from others… ie his language barrier.
lol there didn’t seem to be a language barrier two years with Tommy Gazzola….
Darren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
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The Winnipeg Jets and veteran coach Rick Bowness are working on finalizing his agreement to be the next coach of the Jets. This will end a thorough interview process for the @NHLJets that began with Barry Trotz as the target. Experience a key factor here.
Interesting.
Some thought Bowness was ready to retire.
Oilers just experienced life with a coach that was shopping for real estate in Boca Raton.
That wasn’t my take. It looked to me like Dallas wanted to move on from Bowness and gave him the option to resign out of consideration for what he had given the franchise. I never heard he said he was ready to retire.
defmn – sorry to veer off-topic, but as I am looking at White Rock, I am curious about why you said you like White Rock over Victoria the other day? Is it access to a real airport or friendlier people or something else? Thanks.
Sorry, just saw this. There are a few things.
Not being on an island that has on and off costs of time and money is one. Those ferry trips are brutal after awhile.
Victoria is a reasonable size with reasonable amount of restaurants, stores etc. but you can’t say it has it all. White Rock sits far enough away from Vancouver – and even Surrey – that it has a small town feel but has access to pretty much anything you can find in any city in this country with a 30 – 45 minute drive if you need something out of the usual.
Great access to parks and hiking and natural beauty either walking or 10 minute drive to the east where you are in the country.
The people. This will depend on your perspective but White Rock is quite conservative in its governance. Lots of old people compared to Victoria which is at the opposite end of the ideological spectrum. As a result the city has not been taken over by the blue tarp brigade. It is perfectly safe for women to walk alone at night here and I don’t think you can say that about Victoria. You certainly couldn’t when I lived there.
If you have any specific questions please feel free to ask. Diablo might have other observations to offer since I just learned the other day we live on the same street here in White Rock.
Thank you, sir.
Interesting roster LT.
Jmo this canada morn! I miss it not being free agency day. Happy Canada day all! 🇨🇦
Debrincat would be great but he’s too expensive. His QO is $9M and I’m guessing his agent would be asking for a long term deal for at least $9M AAV.
There is no money to pay DeBrincat…
We had our chance and blew it.
If only Benson was given a chance to play with some skill 😉
Remember those days? Lol
I thought he was going to make it. I often wonder if Yak would of made it with a team like Tampa are Minny.
Yakupov had unique and devastating issues. Coaching changes had a negative impact, and he got greased by a linesman and it had significant impact, too. The mind fades these things but they were important at the time.
The linesman thing was a big deal. If he stayed on McDavid’s wing and kept scoring like that all year who knows what we’re talking about career wise.
He was never the same after that.
Why is Sportsnet always starting rumours of Oiler players getting bought out. Now it’s Kassian being bought out. Where’s the Possible Canuck or Flames buy-out candidates like Lucic. They’re always stirring the pot about Edmonton and trying to Troll the Faithful in E-Town
Lucic was paid his bonus today.
He is only due $1 million in salary next season so not worth a buy out and it’s possible Calgary moves his cap hit.
Interesting sleight of word there, since his cap hit, not his salary, is the reason Calgary would be considering a buy out.
He is not worth a buy out because the Flames would still be hit with a $4.7M cap hit if he’s bought out (which wouldn’t even saving them enough cap to replace him with a league min player).
If he’s poison it’s worth buying him out but we all know Sutter has him pitching hay bails in the loft of his Barn.
Capfriendly usually has a ‘most popular buyouts’ graphic on their homepage with the players who fans are most frequently trying to buy out.
It’s moved in the last day or two (replaced by ‘restricted free agents’ since it’s FA season), but last I saw Kassian was 2nd on the list with Petr Mrazek at #1.
I’m glad Holland went with the old guy rather than signing Mrazek to (almost) $4M x 4 years.
And yet here we are again this year with no option that doesn’t come with question marks and everybody is ready to help Ken with suggestions on how to dole out $6M for 5 years or some such because the in house option comes with a question mark of inexperience rather than ‘one good year’ or ‘close to the end of the career’ etc.
I guess we’ll see where the discussion is at at this time next year but my suspicion is that it will not be a happy one because spending more money for more years on questionable assets always works out so well for this team.
I’d be happy with a Varlomov (if willing) or Reimer one year option to allow more time to see where Skinner is at (Holtby I don’t think is a good bet, even if cheap).
Even in that case though, I think there’s a high probability the discussion here will not be a happy one, and that we’ll be back close to where we are today.
Because of that, I would also support the team signing one of the the more expensive UFAs available (Campbell, Husso), if they believe that player is a real solution.
I understand. I just think that trading or buying from a questionable or flawed selection because of perceived desperation has more chance of turning out badly than waiting for a good answer does.
It locks you in so that you can’t take advantage if a real answer comes along. I have seen that movie too many times with this team. A solid vet like Reimer is the way to go imo with the idea that Skinner gets a chance to show if he has what it takes.
No Husso or Campbell for me. Not convinced.
100% agree that buying because of desperation is riskier and more likely to turn out badly.
In his time with the Oilers though, Holland has been very patient and measured with his goalie targets. Markstrom and Kuemper being the only ones he’s seemingly chased, even in the face of what could characterized as desperation previously.
I don’t think they’d commit to Husso or Campbell if they weren’t convinced. There’s lots to recommend both of those players (as well as some red flags), but Holland and the scouts are in a better position to evaluate that than I am.
And it should be easy to check down to Reimer or Talbot if they aren’t convinced (or are more bullish on Skinner than I am), since those guys shouldn’t cost a lot in terms of assets. I’m hopeful/optimistic there’s an appropriate balance of desperation/patience and risk/reward on whatever move they do make.
This a thousand times
LOL at buying out Lucic – we know why that’s not an option and it’s why the trade was made.
Of course the Lucic contract can be moved – not without a MASSIVE sweetener – 2 first round pick give or take.
That contract is quite desirable to a team like Arizona still below the cap floor. $6 mil cap hit, $1 mil in actual cash owing. Yes it would still require a sweetener.
If Skinner is possibly your future why didn’t they have him play down the stretch and back-up Smith in the playoffs. Instead they had Swiss Cheese Mikko whose watering his garden and looking over his fence at Shania Twain catching a tan in her bikini as we speak. Same with the year before if Bouchard is your future (core) why did they have him playing tittlywinks in the hotel room instead of playing.
Sigh – answered many times.
Skinner was in the process of struggling in the AHL playoffs.
If you don’t trust your prospects I see why so many have failed.
OP has it right – Skinner is not the goalie saviour, but rather a young netminder who will first try to get firm footing in the NHL next season as a backup. 2-3 term are later, he may be ready to be a full time starter at the age of 27-28 (an age when most goalies seem to make that leap)
We still need to sign a starting goalie for long term.
The coaching staff clearly didn’t trust Koskinnen – not even a little. They should have given Skinner a look down the stretch.
If you look at playing time in the playoffs I believe the decision was to go with Smith. They preferred to have Skinner playing in important games in the AHL.
That too – the current management seems to have really firm timelines of development for the prospects now.
Skinner is 23 I would of giving him a taste of Playoff madd Hockey in Edmonton. Confidence is a thing especially for Goalies.
I think that is precisely why they didn’t put all that pressure on him.
It’s a good thing Sather didn’t think that way Andy Moog and Grant Fuhr craved pressure. Skinner’s going to be 24 in Nov it’s time to shit are get off the pot for every Binnington there’s 20 Steve Passmore’s
This situations aren’t comparable. When those two were rookies, expectations on the Oilers were far lower and media attention much more reserved. Nowhere near the same pressure or fishbowl. Fuhr had also been the starter almost the whole season.
And Skinner will be one of the two starting Oiler goalies when he turns 24. He will be, as you say 😉 …shitting.
Absolutely no need to buyout Kassian in the next two weeks. There will likely be an arb filing which will open up a 2nd buyout window – kick that can down the road and explore all other options first.
I also think retaining half should make the player tradeable with no sweetener and is the better option.
Totally. Also i love that you are i. Rwanda checking in on hockey. Id do the same ha
I have 4:30 am start tomorrow as we are cloning Mount Bispoke. Feel stressed that I don’t have the time to catch up on all the audio pods and everything I usually read.
You went all the way there to clone a mountain? There wasn’t a lab in Calgary that you could have used?
The Sharks have fired their entire coaching staff.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/red-wings-hire-former-lightning-assistant-derek-lalonde-as-head-coach/
They go into the draft and free agency with only an interim GM in place.
Correct link.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/sharks-fire-head-coach-bob-boughner-as-gm-search-continues/sn-amp/
Dreger suggesting it will take a $6 million cap hit to sign Jack Campbell.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-rumours-edmonton-oilers-zack-kassian-1.1819414
Wow. I would take Bob at half price 5 million for the next 4 years instead.
Bob turns 34 before next season starts, and will probably also cost assets if FLA is retaining a full half of his $10M.
Bob’s SV% in 3 seasons since joining Florida is .906 (in 134 games).
Campbell’s is .913 in the last 3 seasons (97 games).
I’d personally be very happy to pay Campbell an extra million considering all that.
Bob’s a snot nosed kid compared to Smith plus he probably doesn’t want to leave the East. Campbell at 6 million plus term just doesn’t really have the track record for me. In saying that I do like him and the way he handled the Toronto media and fan circus was memorable.
Yeah Campbell at $6M isn’t perfect, but I’d still prefer that to Bob (not that Bob is the worst option that’s been floated either).
Not everyone can play till they’re 40, right? And he hasn’t been the same goalie since leaving Columbus.
It would behoove management to trade for on the vets with one-year left on their contracts to share the net with Skinner (Varlamov, Allen, Talbot, Reimer).
4 years and massive cap is simply not a good spend on any of the UFA goalies – none of them can be counted on to be a top 10-15 starter this year let alone year over year.
Go with a one-year stop gap and asses Skinner and what’s needed going forward in a year.
I guess…
This season Husso was tied for 6th (.919) and Campbell tied for 13th (.914) in SV% (of goalies with 30 or more appearances).
Husso has a career .912 SV%, Campbell a career .916 SV%. They are not guaranteed, but they have good track records.
Over the last two seasons, Mike Smith is 7th in save percentage.
Neither of them are likely to be an upgrade over what Smith has provided over the last two years.
Before last season, Husso was well under .900 in the NHL and his first cup of coffee in the NHL was dwarfed by what Skinner did this season in his first cup.
If Smith is 7th in SV% then trying to find an available goalie with a better SV% is going to be near impossible, especially if you are unwilling to spend $
I know. Smith has been exceptional, aside from injury and being plagued by poor situational goaltending (which, incidentally was also an issue for Koskinen and Talbot before him).
Expecting an upgrade on the #7 SV% (.919) is not reasonable. Much less if you want a budget price. I expect a lot of folks are are going to be disappointed with the price and/or performance once the team does ‘upgrade’ on Smith.
I don’t know that Campbell or Husso are 100% ‘the answer’, but they both have a chance to be a legit starter. They both have good track records.
If you’re waiting, it’s a bet that Skinner can become a top 10-15 guy in 1 year (not terribly likely IMO), or that there’s someone available next year, who’s actually better than this years options, and willing to sign.
The fact of the matter is there’s risk everywhere.
Sign Campbell. If Skinner passes him, trade Campbell. There’s always a market for goaltenders.
Yes, agreed. That’s the ideal problem to have. The only issue is if Campbell craps the bed, which I guess is what folks are worried about.
The Boilers Branch passed him on several pressure tests in the crazy Toronto market.
Not so much that as the size of the cap hit and term it will take to sign him making it difficult to move him.
I’m not convinced that Florida thinks there is always a market for goaltenders or that Vancouver thought there was with Holtby.
Maybe Toronto will have better luck with Mrazek this summer.
Does Campbell at $6 M make us a better team than Reimer at $2 M and a $4M RW make us?
I mean, if Campbell is playing well this isn’t an issue, is it? You want 2 goalies that can play. Skinner would need to be really high end, and for multiple years, before he priced himself out of being the 2nd goalie (or was so solid they’d want to move Campbell because he’s superfluous).
Bobrovsky did fall off after signing his $70M deal. Signing UFAs is a risk, that’s fair.
Holtby and Mrazek were just bad bets IMO. Those both looked like poor deals the day they were signed.
That’s a really good question. It could go either way.
Definitely a chance Reimer + winger is the better next season. Though if Campbell is a .920 goalie (which he has been 2 of the last 4 years) he’s probably the right answer.
Beyond that though, I think continuity matters somewhat here. Campbell can (hopefully) be a multi-year solution for the McDavid window. Holland, the team (the fans) don’t want to be looking for a new goalie every year.
It’s true they can’t force the solution just because they have a problem. But I think a bird in the hand (even an expensive one) is worth more than one in the bush.
No doubt its a judgment call with danger either way. I guess we’ll know soon enough and a lot of moving parts for a team that says it is in its contending window.
Agreed. Hopefully the team makes the right call.
I looked at him in a recent article for The Athletic, his last four years were solid. He did have some mid-season wobble, and Covid, but his final nine games showed recovery. I understand goaltending isn’t an exact science, but for me he’s a solid investment. We’ll see.
Agreed. He’s got a really good track recored, the biggest concern being what workload he can handle.
Except Koskinen apparently.
By my eye the last 2 years opposing teams seem to shoot from everywhere and often on Smith because of his rebound control and his tendency to let weak goals in.
The key for the Smith replacement will be can he be healthy and available for most of the season. Smith not being available or on top of his game due to injuries until March was clearly an issue for the team. Hard to say how much his health problems may have impacted his game to game performance. When he was on in the playoffs he was very very good but he had 7 of 16 starts where his save percentage was <.901, and the other 9 above .925. It averaged out to .913 and his play in several games helped the team get to the Conference finals. Against Colorado his 4 starts had save %’s of .760, .900, .929 and .857. And in game 4, he was good till the 3rd period allowing only 1 goal on the first 26 shots.
With his now public injury issues, he started 16 games in 35 days. Tough for the coaches too since when he was on, he was going to be the better goalie. You start each game thinking he will be on today. It is hard to fault the coaching staff for starting Smith.
If his replacement is a .912-.915 save % guy (an extra 5-8 goals against over 40 games played) but it is more evenly distributed, across games, does that result in a better or worse record?
People will blame Holland saying what would he expect with a soon to be 40 year old, but Holland tried not to have to rely on that, with Kuemper and Markstrom. Smith was his fallback position, and even then, while it is a greater risk Smith has health issues, it is not a certainty. And despite the health issues, Smith was a big contributor to getting the team to round 3. If Holland had gone another route, what would have been the other affects of that decision in terms of player cost, salary etc.?
This is very important for his legacy if he can find the right goaltender aka Billy Ranford. Mr .Holland will be a hero not only in Detroit but his home province.
Is there any reason to believe that with another goaltender the variance in the starts would decrease?
One of the things about this playoffs was that it seemed like when any team lost they lost by multiple goals.. It seems to me that “quality starts” vs “bad starts” will thus largely reflect any given goalie’s win-loss record. Even Vassy had some stinkers. There was some of this going on in the regular season too. The high-scoring 70s and 80s were the result of expansion, so this isn’t completely untoward.
There’s a similar notion running around that a good goalie stops the ones he should stop and only allows some of the ones he shouldn’t stop. I’m not sure the first part of that notion is actually true for any good goalie. When you’re getting peppered eventually you’re going to make a mental error and that’s just as likely to come on a shot you should have, that maybe you don’t give the same mental attention.
This a thousand times
Last night the wife and I were enjoying a beautiful summer night and a bottle of vino on the deck. To mark the occasion and today’s proceedings, I threw on a Spotify playlist called ‘Canadian Classic Rock.’ Now nostalgia is not normally one of my things but as the wine flowed and our wont to singalong increased with each song, man was I struck by the strength of this catalogue. Love or hate CanCon regs, there was a time in this country when we were chockablock with professional caliber bands writing memorable songs with strong hooks and catchy melodies. The lyrics were optimistic and thought provoking, the musicianship outstanding, and the stylistic choices ran the gamut from Rush to Blue Rodeo to Streetheart to the Hip.
God bless rock and roll and Happy Canada Day ya hosers!
April Wine was a favourite of mine.
Saw them on the Nature of the Beast tour. That was probably their peak in terms of commercial success. Very underrated band. They had it going on with that triple lead guitar attack. Myles Goodwyn was too overt in his Habs fandom for my liking though. lol
Sign of a Gypsy Queen is a classic. They’re kinda like CCR in that all their tunes sound good.
The Band, Neil Young,Leonard Cohen, Joni Mitchell, Bruce Cockburn, Rough Trade, Powder Blues,The Lincolns and a very prolific musical influencer in canadian history Lorne Michaels ( SNL and the Night Music/Sunday Night productions),,,he could be in the builder category …ha!
Most of the best of those artists got their start prior to Cancon or back when Cancon was a mere mandated 25% of airplay.
Happy Canada Day!
I’m really not convinced the Oilers could have done anymore with his development process or could have been anymore patient than they were with Jesse Puljujarvi.
Jesse struggled to learn English and system play, consistently balked at playing in the minors when his poor play merited the demotion, then took his ball and went home at one point. Once they mended fences, the Oil gave him massive minutes with skill players including the best in the game. Jesse scored but not enough albeit if you’re a fan of “third assists,” he may have been one of the best ever.
The Oilers mistake was at the draft. Sometimes someone fools you in the job interview and you’re stuck with a square peg for a round hole. It happens.
At 4OV, a player is supposed to be plug and play. Jesse was anything but. That’s on him (and his agent). The Oilers did everything they could to make a poor bet pay off. Thank Gord we’re finally moving on.
I wonder if JP will have a career similar to that of Nichuskin. N struggled with Dallas, returned to the KHL, but really popped this year after a couple in COL.
I also think EDM amateur scouting has been pretty good, but the pro scouting has been atrocious. It seems that’s where the talent has been bled out over the years.
It might make sense to pursue Nichushkin in free agency rather than Evander Kane.
Younger, big, fast and defensively responsible.
I’m leery of Nichushkin. He’s going to get paid, and I’m not sure he’ll sustain this season’s production.
If Sakic lets him get to UFA we know at least one smart GM agrees.
John Druce the 2nd. He’ll never come close to 25 again.
There is nothing more the organization could have done.
The same cannot be said for the player or the agent.
JP reminds me of the band Tool. Massive fan allegiance for minimal work output.
This is an awesome analogy.
My sons are both massive Tool fans. I’ve heard the hype and then some. Good band, but a modern day Zeppelin? I think not although their cover of No Quarter is spot on.
The exception being Tool drummer Danny Carey who is one of the greatest of all time because he has amazing timing and fast hands.
Them’s fighting words!
I never really get the ‘agent as bad guy’ angle. I think they make their argument when they think the player is wrong and if the player still wants to do what he wants to do the agent tries to facilitate it.
Here it is a little more confusing than normal because the agent is essentially the public mouthpiece for the player in the Anglo-speaking world.
I find it surprising however that an urbane lawyer, a man of the international hockey world, wasn’t able to convince the farm boy from the hinterlands that he was making sme poor choices. In particular, refusing minor leagues, returning to Europe and above all, not fixing the language issue.
I’d have to think there was either some agreement or even leadership there.
The agent also doesn’t see to mind verbally burning some bridges.
Farm boys from the hinterlands are often more stubborn than the urbane sophisticate from the metropolis.
Reason is an over estimated tool in changing people’s minds. 😉
True and that’s why I said “player and agent”. It’s too difficult to ascertain the source of the choices to know for sure. Better to think of them as “the team” or “partnership” responsible.
Freddie Freeman and his Agent is a interesting story.
This might be an unpopular opinion, but for me JP is one of the most frustrating players to watch play. It seems he’s always a split second too slow or passes off a great shot opportunity. I don’t know that I’d trade him, but it’s not hard to believe the rumour that McDavid and Draisaitl don’t enjoy playing with him. I’m also a bit skeptical that he’s as good as the analytics appear to say he is.
This sounds like one of those old-timey scouts in Moneyball.
Tippett, so far, has been the only coach who has been willing to let Jesse be Jesee.
Jesse has the “Dustin Penner” problem, except Penner had a stronger belief in himself, and was better at fighting through all the crap thrown at him by his coaches, teammates, and media.
I will concede that Jesse is a square peg. But then Rob Gronkowski is a square peg. One can see that as a problem, or one can see that as an opportunity. Too many people and coaches see that as a problem.
Comparing JP to The Gronk is about as big a stretch as there is.
LT, to clarify on this. I assume this is in reference to Spector’s quotes from scouts on Puljujarvi’s value?
Are you also including rumor/speculation about Connor Brown as the potential return in the ‘not close to good enough’ category? (you do mention him directly, after all)
And as Todd Macallan mentions, there’s also been rumor/speculation about Neclas as a return, which you seen quite happy with.
I guess I’m not clear on where the line between rumor and speculation is being drawn here. And likewise, I’m not sure what you’d consider an acceptable return.
For my part, I’d be OK with Puljujarvi + Kassian for Connor Brown (ideally with Brown signed to a ~$4M extension beyond next season). A 2nd round pick would clearly be disappointing.
I think all these trades are questionable value, save Necas. I am riffing on what is in public and what I’m hearing out in the ether. I didn’t read spec’s article so can’t comment on what might be in there.
Thank you, that definitely clarifies, even if we don’t fully agree on Puljujarvi’s future value.
Rakell-McDavid-Brown
Nuge-Draisatl-Hyman
Holloway – McLeod-Yamamoto
Foegele-Ryan-UFA
I would love to see the kid line. And I like the top 6.
Happy Canada Day everyone!
Liking the latest potential roster LT. With Kass and Kane gone, I might be inclined to pick up Deslauriers (if he would sign here) over AA to add some size/grit. It’s ‘hair on ass’ over skill, but valuable come playoff time.
Jesse and Kassian with no salary retained for Connor Brown is a win. The cap savings goes directly to goalie (I like the Campbell idea a lot LT).
I’m not down with Athanasiou as it didn’t work before. I think Sportsnet has a good set of articles from a scout on future of the teams. They had the Oil signing some smart players.
Best one is an old LT favourite. Rickard Rakell for 3 X $3.8 mill. That’s a solid two way winger. Added to Brown and they have a better two way game on their wings.
Now if they can be cap creative with the Keith contract (ala Gregor and the Arizona buyout idea) and our cap issues are gone and they can resign Kulak.
Barrie is the last movable piece with value.
Sneaky hometown goalie pickup I kinda like as a high ceiling not yet pop guy is Eric Comrie.
Holland on Keith – “what did you expect, me to get him for nothing?”
Also Holland – Trades JP for nothing (let’s hope not)
I’d like to see the Oilers on the good side of a “nothing” trade for once.
There hasn’t been many more polarizing players than Jesse. It’s for a variety of reasons. Analytics love him where the eye test doesn’t. Seems like a happy go lucky guy but for whatever reason apparently not close to teammates in the dressing room. Whatever the outcome of the trade is if there is one I hope both the team and the player does well. It sure seems like the time for both to go in a new direction
I’ve seen this many, many times. Paajarvi, Yakupov recent examples.
Except those 2 didn’t have half the fan base on there side. They just didn’t perform and live up to expectations. I would say Justin Schulz would be one though.
The fans I interacted with were onside with Paajarvi and Yakupov, as is the case with Puljujarvi. The situations are eerily similar.
My thought was the fan base is split on Jesse where they weren’t with those players. There was no outcry when those 2 were moved on like there will be when Jesse is moved.
To play devil’s advocate here, were the trades that saw Paajarvi and Yakupov leave poor ones? Certainly the return for Yakupov was disappointing given his draft pedigree, but I don’t think you could call those trades poor overall.
Likewise, I feel like the post Oilers careers of MPS and Yakupov at least partly vindicated Oilers management (in those specific cases), as well as the fans who weren’t convinced of those players.
And to be clear, I think Puljujarvi will have a better career going forward than either MPS or Yakupov did, so I don’t mean to devil’s advocate too far here. Still, I don’t see these as good examples of management incorrectly evaluating their players, whatever their evaluation tools were.
Bringing Athanasiou back is an interesting take. Giving up a significant package to acquire him at the deadline only to not qualify him that offseason. Then to bring him back again after he proved the decision to let him walk correct? Holland would only need to claim him off waivers (which could also happen next season) to hit for the acquisition cycle.
I mean, the decision to not qualify him was made due to having $7-$8M less cap that summer than expected when he was acquired.
And this I’m not sure about this either. He has missed games in LA, but in the last 2 seasons the Kings have had 50% of the shots and 52% of the goals with him on the ice. He’s scored 1.96 P/60 at 5v5, and his actual boxcars are 75 GP 21G 19A 40 PTS (0.53 points/game). For $2M, as LT suggests, AA seems like a very reasonable add.
I do agree it’s an interesting take by LT though.
Stay focused Mr. Holland
1.The starting goalie
2.Physical fast players
3.Give us a kid line
LT, agree wholeheartedly about Jesse. I love him as a player and personality but have accepted the fact he’s likely played his last game in the royal blue and orange (coming back this yr finally, thanks Gazzola!).
Lots of proposals out there, not really rumors, about a possible Bison for Necas swap, given the Canes love of analytics and Finns, with his buddy Aho there as well.
Curious to your, and everyone’s, thoughts if this happened? If I remember right, Necas is an og Woodguy “pisscutter.” I feel this may represent the best we could do for Ol Bison.
Happy Memorial Day to you fellow Newfoundlanders and happy Canada Day to all!
It would be a good trade.
This would be outstanding.
As much as I am a Bison King fan, Necas is a player who has been on my radar for a long time. Like Jesse, Necas hit a scoring slump will only 1 goal in his last 30 games, including playoffs. One factor may have been reduced PP vs last season. However, I’ve always thought him to be more of a 2-way type, rather than a scorer.
Scoring and handedness aside, I would compare him to Ryan McLeod. He is not physical and he has speed to burn. He is not as heavy as RM, but he is the same height.
As a RHC prospect when drafted, he’s never played C in NA. If he worked more on his face off proficiency, that would be a nice complement to McLeod on his RW, where I see him as a 3rd line winger.
Happy Canada Day LT. Thanks for the blog and I enjoy your new radio show format. Keep up the good work. Your passion for the Oilers is outstanding and much appreciated! Enjoy your weekend.
Hey LT:
Love these mock rosters you do but I think in the future it might be nice if you provide the link to Cap friendly where you do them so we can take a better look at them on their site?
Just a thought.
I don’t save them.
You need to publish them to share them with us, as you probably know.
You can start a new roster each time, with a different name, and have many saved in your account though, if that’s of interest. (I do this frequently and so long as you don’t publish them they’ll remain there for your reference or updating)
Interesting roster as always LT, but where is Broberg?
First call up.
I kept him on the farm, but he would be first recall.
Do you have Samorukov traded? Or placed on waivers to keep Niemalainen?
IR.
Haha, fair!
He should slide through waivers no problem. More famous names pass through unclaimed every September and October.
Perhaps, but he was pretty famous not so long ago.
At one time, his name was somewhat know. Now he is a 23 year old, oft-injured d-man with 4 minutes of NHL experience.
I was one of his biggest fans but 23, oft injured, never made the show is 3 strikes. Maybe a team in rebuild mode might take a chance on the waiver wire.
Oh, I think he can play in the NHL this coming season. I’ve watched a ton of him in the AHL.
On the other hand, I don’t think he gets claimed on waivers during the end of camp waivers dump.
I agree he might well pass through (if he is waived). I think there’s also a chance he’d get claimed.
Beyond that, I think there’s a good chance he’s a better hockey player than Niemalainen. Hopefully they’re all healthy in camp, and Samorukov at least gets the chance to outplay Niemalainen and whoever else is there for that #7D spot.
I don’t disagree with any of that and he does have a legit shot for the roster over Niemo – firstly, on merit as he’s simply a better hockey player with a broader range of skills. Also did to the waiver risk. I think he’d clear but, as you say, there is risk of a claim, unlike Niemo.
I said at the time that Tippett might of burned this kid bad.
How?
I don’t know. Throwing him out there AGAIN doesn’t necessarily mean things end any better.