This is an unusual summer for Ken Holland and his team building work for the Edmonton Oilers. The final four appearance for the team in 2022 means extra pressure to push and break on through to the other side next spring.
The roster moves we’re about to see would be far easier a year from now, when the Oscar Klefbim, Duncan Keith and Mike Smith (just shy of $12 million annually between the three) contracts come off the books. Time waits for no man, so the push this summer is going to be aggressive. Holland is going to make some big moves and sacrifice futures in making these good things happen. A wild July is on the way.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Could the Oilers look to RFA’s to find solutions?
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: The 2022 NHL draft has a chance to be unique in Edmonton Oilers history.
- DNB: Tyler Wright Q&A
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Is this Oilers’ year to find a world-class agitator in NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Which Oilers are most likely to return next season? Who goes?
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
CAN YOU WIN WITH?
Bill James used to spend time contemplating teams during the offseason by asking “can the X win with (specific player) as their starting LF and leadoff man?” and it was an interesting exercise. We won’t go deeply into this process, but there are clearly championship players occupying important roles on the Oilers. I would list Connor McDavid (No. 1 center), Leon Draisaitl (No. 2 center), Zach Hyman (top six forward), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (top six forward), Darnell Nurse (top four defense), and soon Evan Bouchard (top six defense and PP wizard), your list may have more or fewer. That’s the foundation for these Edmonton Oilers. Names who could be considered include Cody Ceci, Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyson Barrie. This team has around 10 players who could contribute significantly to a Stanley Cup victory in my opinion.
Who are the drags? Unproven players like Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg? Yes, but you can live with that for a time. A player like McLeod may well contribute enough to be considered one of the difference makers by the end of the coming season. NHL teams are always willing to endure the growing pains of youth, knowing the other side of the mountain could mean a decade of contributions.
Who are the drags? These are the players who, for whatever reason, are on contracts but can’t contribute consistently or are so overpaid any contributions are overwhelmed by cap hits. These are the players many fans are calling to be traded, and include Zack Kassian, Duncan Keith, possibly Warren Foegele. Mike Smith doesn’t qualify because it looks like a lock for LTIR.
What will Holland have to do? I don’t believe Holland is willing to sweeten a Kassian deal enough to make it happen, a Foegele deal is likely to return a similar contract, and the fantastical Keith trade/buyout/re-sign has a chance to get stopped in its tracks by the NHL. So, I think Holland is looking at:
- Buying out Kassian. It will save $2.5 million.
- Trading Tyson Barrie for picks and prospects, saving $4.5 million.
- Placing Mike Smith on LTIR.
The total savings are $9.5 million. That should get the Oilers Evander Kane and Brett Kulak. Holland will need to get creative in signing Jack Campbell and re-signing Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod.
As Todd Macallan mentioned earlier, Kurt Leavins 9 Things today is worth a read, in particular (but not only) for the stuff about Brad Holland.
I agree with Leavins that a lot of the Oilers moves in the last year have had a different feel about them (all of Hyman, Ryan, Foegele and Kulak looked like they could have been ‘analytics’ based).
What does that say about the Bear trade for Foegele?
I believe Foegele had great “on-ice analytics” in Carolina.
I know. I was referring to what the Oilers saw that made Bear available.
Yeah, that I don’t know. ‘Hockey trade’, perhaps?
As has been discussed lots, Bear exiting certainly isn’t something you’d have predicted using anaytics (Bear and Foegele’s ‘advanced’ stats prior to the trade look pretty similar).
To LT’s “what can you win with?”, as well as defmn’s post below.
I think it’s possible/likely we overestimate the quality of players on Cup winning teams when comparing to the Oilers. They’re proven to be ‘good enough’ by winning the Cup, but lots of them don’t look that way until they actually do it.
Looking back at the last 5 Cup winners as a guide, who were their 12 forward, 6 defense starting goalie? I used 5v5 TOI/game to slot each team into lines 1-4 and pairs 1-3, plus extras. I just did TBay once since there’s a lot of redundancy, and left out players under 10 GP.
2022 Colorado
Mackinnon
Nichushkin
Landeskog
/
Rantanen
Kadri
Lehkonen
/
Compher
Burakovsky
Aube-Kubel
/
Newhook
O’Connor
Helm (plus Cogliano and Sturm 13th and 14th)
——
Toews
Makar
/
Byram
Manson
/
E. Johnson
J. Johnson
——
Kuemper
2020 Tampa Bay
Kucherov
Palat
Point
/
Cirelli
Gourde
Coleman
/
Goodrow
Killorn
Johnson
/
Stephens
Maroon
Paquette
——
Hedman
McDonagh
/
Sergachev
Shattenkirk
/
Cernak
Bogosian (plus Shenn)
—-
Vasilevskiy
2019 St. Louis
Schenn
O’Reilly
Perron
/
Schwartz
Tarasenko
Sundqvist
/
Blais
Thomas
Bozak
/
Barbashev
Maroon
Steen (and Fabbri)
—-
Parayko
Bouwmeester
/
Pietrangelo
Edmundston
/
Gunnarsson
Dunn (and Bortuzzo)
—-
Binnington
2018 Washington
Kuznetsov
Oshie
Ovechkin
/
Wilson
Backstrom
Eller
/
Stephenson
Vrana
Smith-Pelley
/
Connolly
Burakovsky
Beagle (and Chiasson)
—-
Niskanen
Orlov
/
Carlson
Kempny
/
Orpik
Djoos
—-
Holtby
2017 Pittsburgh
Crosby
Guentzel
Malkin
/
Kessel
Rust
Kunitz
/
Sheary
Bonino
S. Wilson
/
Cullen
Hornqvist
Rowney (plus Hagelin and Kuhnhackl)
—-
Dumolin
Hainsey
/
Maatta
Cole
/
Schultz
Daley
—-
Fleury and Murray
For comparison, the 2022 Oilers team.
McDavid
Kane
Draisaitl
/
Hyman
Nuge
Yamamoto
/
McLeod
Puljujarvi
Foegele
/
Ryan
Archibald
Kassian
—-
Nurse
Ceci
/
Keith
Bouchard
/
Kulak
Barrie
—-
Smith
Teams winning Cups with guys like Aube-Kubel, Sammy Blais, Devante Smith-Pelley, Scott Wilson on 3rd lines. Kevin Shattenkirk, Michal Kempny, Olli Matta, among others as top 4 D. Never mind 4th lines and 3rd pairs.
Anyway, I think “what can you win with” is a great guide, but it’s also important to remember that many (most?) teams that win do it without necessarily having every “can win with” box checked.
Sorry for the long post!
One thing they do have is the goaltending box checked. Holland’s number one priority this summer. Fix that first, then try and check as many other boxes as possible. The rest will depend on the young players like Broberg, Holloway, and maybe even Bourgault later in the season.
Yes, agreed that goaltending should be priority #1.
(though as is noted often, young, unestablished goalies like Binnington and Murray have have backstopped their teams to cups in the recent past)
But mostly Skinner. If he can post a .910 – .915 Sv% that changes a lot of the other parts. Unless, of course, Hollan has already spent big on a name goalie for term.
My goodnes JP I doubt my musings were worth that much work. 😉
If Kulak and Kane are re-signed that changes things. That gives them 16 legit guys on a contending team. That should move them into the top 8 teams in the league category. It makes them a threat if the goaltending is even average.
We’ll know soon enough what Holland has been able to accomplish.
Haha, it’s an important question, and thank you for bringing things back LT’s original discussion point (it was a good one).
Fair about ‘if Kane and Kulak re-sign’, but all of these teams added at the deadline to plug holes (as did the Oilers, I kind of like to think of Kane also as a rental even though that’s not entirely true).
Without looking properly though, I’d guess the Cup winning teams (on average) have two of their solutions coming from players added at the deadline. Certainly one, and I think that would be an under-estimate. Fair?
So the Oilers in October won’t have an entirely legitimate looking roster. I’m not sure that matters though (likewise, there are no guarantees when you check all of the boxes – see: Calgary). And just maybe more of legit (enough) pieces than you realize are already there.
For me the difference is depth of prospects. The Oilers are building that but it has a way to go. The 4th line should get easier to improve as the team moves into contending mode. Those kind of players will put Edmonton on their list as a destination for 4th line money rather than the team having to overpay or under deliver.
It goes back to a discussion I have been having with HH for the last week or so. I think this is the summer to consolidate, Integrate Broberg & Holloway – maybe Bourgault after Christmas is they are lucky. Find out what they have in Skinner while sheltering him with a vet on a one year. Bouchard one year better. Tweak the balance a little bit.
All sorts of mistakes, bad luck & growing pains disappear next summer with a lot of questions more clearly defined and money to answer them. I want to see a top 8 finish in the regular season. That’s where the legitimate contenders tend to hang out.
Yeah, that’s a very measured and reasonable outlook, and I don’t disagree really.
I know you’re talking about depth of young players pushing, but I think it’s important that to this point the Oilers picks/prospects pool is basically fully intact. There is trade currency there that many teams in a similar position have already spent.
I agree that too 8 is a legitimate goal. It’s interesting that the league is more polarized the last couple of years (it wasn’t just the in division play, it seems). But 104 points would have been a top 8 team in any 82 game season before this one going back more than a decade.
” Keith trade/buyout/re-sign has a chance to get stopped in its tracks by the NHL. “
Can’t remember where. I swear I read somewhere that 2 other teams have done this and the NHL didn’t do anything about it. If this is true then a precedent has been set and we should go for it and challenge the ruling if the NHL decided to change the rules mid-stream again on us.
Brooks Orpik – traded to Colorado in the deal for Grubauer; there was some BS about how Sakic tried to find another trade partner, but at the end of the day Orpik never played a game with the Avs and was bought out and signed with the Caps before the next season started.
If Keith is traded to the Coyotes in what essentially is a cap dump, then bought out … well then he should and would be a UFA free to sign with any team, just like anyone else. Maybe he ends up in Vancouver, closer to his kid?
I have to admit. I’m Ok with Keith on our 3rd pairing at the right price. Rumours have it he was good in the dressing room.
— Just had a combined bday for my 72 year old grandparents at our cottage. (There cottage is right here as well). 7 grandkids between my sister and I from 8 months old to 19. Kids running around , my 3 year old trying to hang with the teenagers. Grannie and Grandpa Dick getting older. I can’t believe how lucky I am.
— Life moves fast : time with multi generation families to be cherished
— Sitting on deck smoking a gar. Young kids in bed.
— Read with interest the 32 thoughts that Keith “could go either way”. Not nearly as far fetched as when I first pointed out the possibility Amd the reasons why…
— LT brings up a good point: Holland likely to do Oil management stuff this off season but if you look at the LTIRs coming off book next year how all in and how much does this need to be an all in year or build it more. Took awhile for Tampa to get over hump. Same for Colorado. Wonder if Holland will have that discipline vs urge to win it all next year
— Haven’t reposted the armchair GM off-season since the first one. Will try tmrw.
Wow.
Your grandparents are 72, and you have a 3 year old yourself? And, since you have a cottage we can assume you have yourself a house, all at an age when you have 72 year old grandparents?
Reprobate living has me astonished to read this. It’s like my head simply is unable to figure out the math involved. Too many bars in too many places.
My life is going to end up like a cosmic car wreck.
— For the record : yes I have a house and a cottage (and place in Miami) and 4 kids and my sister 3 kids. 72 year old grandparents is the right age in terms of math. They had us a little younger as that generation did and we had kids a little older as our generation did. (Note, now I see: I meant my parents, I was referring to them as my kids grandparents! I’m not a cyrpto bro! Lol…)
— I do wonder about our kids though and that generation. Reprobate living is going to be much less kind to future generations of kids in terms of opportunities than in previous generations IMO.
PRO TIP: aim to bat well above your average when choosing a spouse. I certainly did and it makes all the difference. (I learned that from my parents and grandparents!)
Yep – the secret of life … find a good partner and keep a good partner. Then add a few rug rats at home to keep you focused on what’s important.
That makes a lot more sense! I was wondering as well
I felt exactly the same way. . .
Except I’m in my 30’s & have 4 kids already. (unexpected, forced career changes can be a real bitch)
Ain’t that the truth
Bobby Margarita
@TSNBobMcKenzie
·
Final note: There’s some pretty wide variances on prospects this year. Every player ranked in TSN’s Top 50, and a handful of prospects beyond No. 50, got some level of consideration as a Top 32 pick.
Enjoy Draft Week!
Draft Week is like Christmas for me.
Some more draft thoughts:
– Being a mock draft junkie, I’ve seen approx. 30-35 of them so far. The Oilers selected about 20-23 different players in them. Picking this low in round 1 means there are many different ways the Oilers could realistically go…
-…Except in goal. There’s no Knight or Askarov or Cossa or Wallstedt this year. In fact, the lowest draft spot at which the first goalie was selected was 60th back in 1986 (Shawn Simpson). Could this be the year that record gets re-written?
Remember when the Q was pumping out goalie prospects? What happened? There’s been such a dearth of talent in recent years, especially in Canada.
That’s a great question. Unfortunately, I don’t have a great answer.
Since 2016, only one goalie from the Q has suited up for Team Canada at the WJHC. That’d be our own Olivier Rodrigue in the ’20 edition. Never got into a tournament game.
Arizona needs to add over $12 mil to get to the cap floor for next year. One player – Kassian – gets them 1/4 of the way there.
What’s it take to get Crouse? Kassian and….
2nd or 3rd rounder in 2023? Oilers don’t have much else to offer and it’ll be a stronger draft.
I have a feeling you’d have to overpay Arizona for Crouse.
This is exactly the type of player Connor needs if we can’t sign Kane, Crouse scores 27-30 with Connor There’s always Anderson from the Habs who would instantly score 30 with Connor. Pat Marron was the blueprint for the winger Connor is the most effective with. Big smart drive to the middle of the ice opening up the outside for Connor. Keep stick on ice and score tap in Goals. Punish opponent if a asshole is taking liberties with Connor.
Actually, it seems Connor is most effective with Jesse (Leon aside). Its Maroon that was able to bump his offence the most with Connor but he doesn’t make Connor better the way Jesse does as far as goals for and against when on the ice.
Goalies for next year…
Varlamov would be nice, but he’s not coming. 16 reasons…
Jack Campbell would be in the upper tier available, but we probably don’t have the cap space.
Ville Husso would be a fashionable target, but Holland probably can’t afford the bidding war. He also prefers more track record. Holland vastly prefers established ability on the decline over emerging talent.
Jake Allen isn’t high-end, but the 1 year $2.9m contract would fit like a glove. Not sure how the conversation goes with Jeff Gorton though. What does Allen cost in this market?
I could see Holland going with someone mediocre like Martin Jones for cheap and trying to hang on until the deadline.
Casey DeSmith will likely sign with the Pens, but he’d be an intriguing option.
A blockbuster trade for Hellebuyck? We can dream…
Holland likes signing free agents and rarely makes hockey trades.
That’s a tell. He’ll try to clear cap for Campbell then have a fallback plan like Holtby and his cup ring.
A blockbuster trade for Hellebuyck? We can dream…
The more I think about it, the more I think this is the best call. Yes, it’s only for two years. But Hellebuyck is truly elite (and very reasonably priced), and none of the other goalies are guaranteed upgrades from Mike Smith. We’ve only got two years until the Drai extension talks begin.
Pay what it costs in trade. Yeah, it’ll hurt. But we always overvalue our own prospects. Does anyone think Colorado regrets trading Conor Timmins and a low first-rounder for one year of Kuemper?
And I don’t see any way that the Jets avoid a rebuild, although it may take them this year to realize they need it. (Apparently Scheifele and Wheeler are not well-liked, and PLD wants out.) And that means Hellebuyck probably wants out. By the trade deadline it should be obvious that the Jets are sellers.
It would be an interesting trade package for him for sure. He’d be a great addition.
I forgot to add LT’s guy Reiner as an option.He might be a good value / low risk stopgap for $2.25m x 1 year. He does have a 5 team no trade list.
Ive also read that Husso’s next contract starts with a 5.
Trade Nurse for Hellebucyk.
With Nurse gone, who plays 1LD?
Doctoreye?😉
Trade Nurse, 1st and prospect for Joshua Morrissey ( he is signed for 6.25 Mill till 2028 ) and Hellebucky.
Imagine watching Nurse go from strength to strength for the next ten years playing for another team.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Nurse could be the deciding factor why Leon and Connor both resign in The City of Champions.
Tyson Barrie for Jake Allen (plus hopefully one of Montreal extra 4th round picks).
(Petry is going to be traded.)
I continue to have a bit of an issue with the characterization that Holland only goes for old players and not emerging players.
Perhaps he won’t chase Husso, but there was reported interest in season and since it ended.
And in terms of Holland’s preferences.. A couple of examples from Detroit. Both came from in their system, but Howard was a 2nd round pick. Paid his dues and then some in the minors (much like Skinner). At age 25 he finally got into the Wings net (only brief injury call-ups over 4 pro seasons before that) and played 63 games for a 100 point team.
A few years later Mrazek (a later round pick) was a fairly similar case. He worked his way through the minors for a couple of years, backed up Howard for a season, then took the starting gig from Howard at age 23 (on a 93 point playoff team).
This just to say I do think it’s possible Holland will push for Husso or another emerging goalie. And I don’t believe it’s likely Holland will sign a Jones or Holtby, with poor track records, just because they’re veterans and cheap (though I do think veterans with a better track record like Reimer, Talbot etc, are possibilities).
You’re talking about drafting and developing… I’ve never said Holland doesn’t do that.
Holland is a free agency shopper not a creative trader who exploits other teams cap problems.
Holland will set his sights on the best available for the position (Campbell / Connolly) then if it doesn’t work out circles back to what he knows (Holtby / Chiasson).
Holland also only shops for what he thinks he needs. As an example, if the next Devon Toews (right shot version) came available for two second rounders, which we don’t even have available, if we did and our GM was Sakic or Mccrimmon, we trade those two picks in a heartbeat and then flip Ceci for picks and futures. Holland would never do that.
I thought (still think) those are relevant examples, even if they were draft and develops, because they show Holland doesn’t always chose old guys on the decline.
Your post was primarily about goalies this summer rather than exploiting other teams cap problems (to find a goalie). You said he rarely makes hockey trades, but he made two last summer, even if you didn’t like them.
I agree he’s likely to set his sights on Campbell, it’s the check down to Holtby or Jones I don’t agree with.
I don’t see Campbell -> Holtby as comparable to Connolly -> Chiasson at all.
I don’t think there is a precedence for Holland adding a starting goalie with a terrible track record. Holtby and Jones both have SV%s under .900 over the last 3-4 seasons. Just awful numbers. I don’t see it.
I guess you’ll point to Mike Smith, but he had one poor year after numerous strong ones. He was also added to help Koskinen, who’d been OK in 50+ starts the year before (ie – far more established than Skinner).
I don’t know what will happen, but I don’t think Holtby or Jones will be the answers. I do think Holland will have a quality goalie as his 1st priority (ahead of Kane even), and it will be someone who has at least a decent recent track record (be it Campbell, Husso, Kuemper, Varlamov, Reimer, Talbot).
I must be doing a poor job communicating.
Yes, Holland could sign any of the goalies available in free agency including Kuemper, Campbell and Husso.
He might even trade for a goalie with a year left like Jake Allen, Talbot, Reimer or Varlamov (in the unlikely event Varlamov changes his mind about his 16 team NTC.) He apparently asked about Varlamov at the deadline.
I don’t know what Holland will do.
I do know that he’s more likely to sign a free agent rather than trade (which doesn’t preclude the possibility of a trade). I also know he likes vets which makes Husso less likely in my opinion (still possible). He also doesn’t like to overpay for average goaltending which raises the potential possibility of a Jones or Holtby if the prices are generally too high for the big names like Campbell, Husso, and Kuemper. He will set his sights on the best available in his opinion which is likely Campbell and check down from there depending on the market.
Holland values cup rings, the guide and record book, and he doesn’t fear age 35 which is regarded as the cliff for goalies.
While he looks at things differently than I do, I don’t necessarily believe this is something he will bungle.
I am curious to see what he does. It’s a tough market.
Yeah, it seems we’re missing on some of our communication.
You’re giving your opinions and reasoning on how Holland will handle the goalie situation. There’s definitely some truth in there, but I disagree with many of your conclusions. My take on his preferences, and how they’re weighted, is different from yours (just one example is ‘values cap rings’ – isn’t Keith the single player he’s added since joining the Oilers who’s won a cup? I don’t think cups are guiding decisions).
Anyway, I’m also curious. Guess we’ll see soon enough.
Assuming the Oilers hang on to #29 (not Draisaitl! But I hope they hang on to him too!), I’m more and more convinced–in no small part to LT’s recent Athletic article–that pick will be spent on D.
And assuming no more picks move in or out, the other three will be on another D plus two F’s. I’d say there’d be a G in there too, but the Fanti signing makes me less sure. (Maybe they take a goalie in Europe / USHL who can develop longer.)
As for D who I could see at #29 (and who fit the Wright template, i.e., smart, athletic, competitive):
LHD: Pickering, Bichsel, Hutson, Lindgren
RHD: Chesley, Lamoureux, Warren, Luneau
I don’t have a strong preference for anyone in particular, although Pickering had a massive growth spurt after he was picked in the bantam draft, so his ceiling could be higher than most as he adapts to his new frame. (And it would be an interesting bit of symmetry as Pickering plays for Wright’s former junior team, the Swift Current Broncos.)
I suspect the pick will be one of the aforementioned trio of RHD from the Q. (One suspects The Bourg would be a good source of intel about them too.)
I don’t think Oilers will go after a smaller D-man but if they do I would add Mattias Hävelid to your list
Also Sam Rinzel should be on the list on the right side , he could have a
high upside.
Based on what little I know of him, Rinzel seems like a “draft and follow” type.
Good for a team that has lots of picks and can afford to wait for him. I don’t think the Oilers have that luxury, given their fondness for older prospects in their draft year (closer to being ready) and their paucity of picks this year.
If the Oilers pick a “draft and follow” type this year, it will be no earlier than round 5.
Hävelid might be a more reasonable pick though.
Definitely he’s raw and may take longer to develop, but if the Oilers think he can become a top 4 D-man, i think they would take him assuming their top picks are gone. However as you said before they may trade down if the players they like are gone.
Not often I get caught on vocabulary but thank you for paucity. Old brain needs all the exercise it can get!
I like the LHD options, but only Warren (😀surprise!😀) is the RHD choice, the others are poor choices at 29 based on my viewings and from the information sources I have consumed.
1.Chesley – very good skater, decent defender, average size. Despite his excellent linemates/deployment he has very poor offensive metrics. He is not as good as he is being touted. He is a late 2nd to 3rd round talent.
2.He is huge and can skate – His stats are meh, despite prime time deployment (top 4, PP2, PK1) in every phase of the game on his team. I have seen nothing impressive other than he moves well and is a giant. I think he is a 4th or 5th round talent.
3.Luneau – he played 1st pair and got tonnes of ice time and was the primary PP1 Dman. He does not impress me, his skating is questionable, he was out of position a lot and I witnessed a lot of chances create by poor pinches and decisions in the Ozone. He is not a consistent passer and man did I see a lot of pylon-like defending. For me he is a mid-late 2nd round talent.
4.Rinzel – A 6’4” decent-skating dominant USHS player. In the USHL he was a fish out of water. Question marks are everywhere for me with this player. To me he is a mid-3rd to a 4th round talent.
5.Warren-He is a late first round talent on some lists and he has the top or close to the top defensive metrics of all Dman draft prospects. He is also still a very young player; he is 6 months younger than teammate Luneau.
As the season went on he was growing with confidence and his passing and decision-making were improved. This player has a lot of room for growth and I think he is just scratching the surface. He will never be an NHL PP1 QB, but he has a thunderous shot, so it isn’t out of the realm of probability that if he continues to improve his offensive game, that he could become an option on a PP2 as a pro.
One of the questions I keep asking myself is if the Oilers are a team that made the final four or are they a team that was one goal or 5 minutes from bowing out in the sixth game of the first round?
For me the answer is ‘somewhere in between’.
When I look at our host’s list of players who can help you win a cup I tend to agree with his assessment if all are slotted appropriately.
McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman & Nuge are top six guys on most if not every team in the league. Missing two.
Yamomoto, Puljujarvi, McLeod can play 3rd line minutes on most if not all teams in the NHL. Foegele is an NHL player but probably only plays 3rd line on half or two thirds of the teams in the league.
(I am not making lines here, just noting value).
Holloway probably makes most teams as a rookie this coming year and maybe Bourgault arrives late in the season but that is a guess and a hope more than something that can be counted on.
That’s nine forwards that, imo, can help a team late into the playoffs this season if healthy etc. etc. Most teams carry 14.
Nurse, Ceci Barrie & Bouchard all count as players who would be on most if not every team in the league in some capacity. Funny how three of the four are on the right side.
Keith? He’s a question mark imo going into next season because at his age injury or age is always a question. Broberg, Samorukov and Niemelainen etc. are also all varying levels of question marks. So we have 4 of 7 dmen who can help a team late into the playoffs this season.
We have a backup goalie by most people’s estimations and that is the prudent take.
So, here we are with nine forwards, 4 dmen and one goalie. Fourteen out of 23. There are, of course, Kulak & Kane as UFA’s but they are not for certain and will eat considerable cap. Puljujarvi, Barrie, Foegele are all mentioned as trade possibilities but would presumably bring back a player of equal value or cap money. McDavid & Draisaitl can both be thought of as worth two players on a cup contending team just because they are that good but even if you want to stretch that far that is still only 16 out of the 23 needed and 23 is really a minimum when talking about 4 rounds of playoffs after an 82 game season.
And, yes, I know those press box guys can be found but we really haven’t found them yet because we really haven’t found a 4th line yet.
So what are we? If Kane and his obvious chemistry with McDavid goes elsewhere are we really a third round playoff team?
Just asking because I hope somewhere in the Oilers head office I have to think somebody there is asking the same thing.
I think they are thinking about it. The goal will be to improve the team in the off-season, I’m sure. It’s the way they’ve approached every off-season under Holland. Question is, is true improvement possible given the current environment? …ie cap constraints, type and number of FAs available, willingness of other orgs to deal, mediation of Kane etc.
And I’m not certain it will be better next summer. I made a call in May on this site that the US was already in recession (and for 1800 S&P by Spring 23) that is looking more and more correct as data comes in. This recession will get a lot worse before it gets better. League data isn’t public, sadly, because I’d love to go back to the early 80s to see what kind of impact that recession had on NHL revs then.
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Mar 2023$3,862.7537.00 Jul 1, 2022 3:00 p.m
Given this is the close on the S&P Mar 2023 futures as of last Friday, you must be short a yard of this. You call is down 55% from here. During the GFC the S&P500 peak to valley was 47% total. And that was when the world was really coming to an end.
As for NHL revenues, I do not believe the NHL had a US TV contract like they do now. Not as dependent on ticket sales as it was in 1980.
Well, my S&P predic is based on the Fed not abandoning their plans to tighten and raise rates. They could panic and defend a higher resistance level, but all the verbal this far indicates they won’t.
2008 was so 2008 lol. You understand that all fresh monetary bubbles must surpass the prior ones in size, right? That when you’re a CB blowing a bubble to prevent deflation from the most recent bubble crash, a smaller bubble is not going to do the job…
By the way, the Fed is merely ending the emergency measures 2008 GFC demanded, after 14 years! Some emergency. All other attempts to end these measures have failed. With the economy as healthy as it is right now 😉 I don’t see what could possibly go wrong…
While I have no idea about macro economics of the American system, the NHL is a relative league insofar as salary cap which places all teams in the same financial boat.
Therefore unless the hockey players have something better to do, it shouldn’t be a big concern what happens to the economy.
Having that TV contract locked in is a huge help. But ticket and jersey sales etc are still important. A flat cap ties a lot of hands and t can take time for deflationary effects on salary to work their way through the system. I’m not really concerned about the LEague as a whole but our little corner of it.
For eg, the Oilers made a decision years ago on their allocation of resources under an inflationary cap, to kick the contract can down the road with regards to Nurse. The number they ended up getting him at now is also predicated on future cap increases.
If the cap remains flat, some teams that have good players can see a forced redistribution of talent to teams that don’t have good players… but have cap space.
Not sure about the S&P but, would we have won the LA series without Kane’s 7 goals?
I don’t think so.
Without Kane we probably lose in 6 to L.A. Which means Kane brought in revenue for 10 games 5 of them at home. I wonder how much worth that is?
It’s a very interesting thought experiment.
Start with the question of whether or not the Oilers would have beaten the Kings if Doughty and Arvidsson had played?
Then, of course, you have a very clear measuring stick in losing to Colorado in 4 straight.
How many of the 23 players on the Avalanche roster would you consider
essential to winning a cup? I would think they would come in around 20-21 considering their 3rd and fourth lines were both effective. Being able to healthy scratch Burakovsky on occasion confirms their forward depth.
Jack Johnson was clearly not among the key group but had Sam Girard not been injured, he likely would not have seen much, if any, ice time.
I would be hard pressed to identify another player that didn’t deserve to be there.
So,how do you get there from here?
They lost HH. War is over.
Sometimes I think you like to keep HH around so you can kick sand in his face.
These last few days HH seems to have gotten some sandy eyeballs from you.
Haha no, I enjoy reading all the comments from everyone. HH likes to stir the pot and that’s fine, but I do call him on things from time to time. He was hammering the Avs there for about a week, nice to see he’s moving on to other dreams.
The Roloson injury in 2006 still comes up around here from time to time. 😉
They lost a skirmish in their rebuild.
They are set up very well to make a leap forward and very soon.
Fiala was just a start.
LAK look good, no doubt.
It is like saying if Leon didn’t have a high ankle sprain and if Durzi had gotten his 5-game suspension for slew footing Leon Oilers would have won in 4 or 5. Would have should have and could have. Who knows right.
Play with the bull…you get the horn.
Thing us neither Doughty or Arvidsson played a minute and if you think Durzi is a mean mofo, you may be forgetting how Doughty plays in the playoffs
Doughty (32), Kopitar (34) and Quick (36) are going to regress within the next 1-2 years and with them go the Kings. And don’t talk to me about Byfield … until he proves otherwise, he’s not in the same class as McDavid, Leon or even Nuge.
Does Calgary return next season as one of your “superior to the Oilers” teams?
I wouldn’t say that losing to Colorado in 4 or winning in 5 against Calgary were clear measuring sticks. That was the point of my post. There is always some luck in a series and I think the Oilers caught it both ways during the playoffs. They got lucky and then they didn’t.
I just think that the regular season paints a more measured picture of where a team is at and that tells me that the Oilers are a playoff team because they have two really, really good players and another 10 or so who are very good to good.
But this league needs you to have at least 18 guys you can use those adjectives on and that it is really difficult to add more than 2 or 3 in any off season even if you have cap room to do so.
As I said above I think you can add a pinch of ‘really good’ to McDavid & Draisaitl because they have proven it. Maybe they mean you can be close with 16 or 17 good to really good players but depth in a league like this is critical for long playoff runs and I just don’t see that it can be done this summer. Not enough money or prospects yet.
I’ll consider it a success if they climb from 11th to 7th or 8th during the regular season. That would be a huge step imo.
Oilers were certainly a top 4 playoff team. Screw the east and their overhyped hack teams. Oilers regularly do well whenever they tour the Eastern Conference.
McDavid/Draisaitl were 1 and 2 in the NHL playoff race and didn’t even play in the finals. If this isn’t proof that the Oilers have something sublime then there is no cure for the patient.
Identifying the weak players from the recent playoffs and replacing them with even slightly better players is at least theoretically certain to achieve a superior result. That is Ken Hollands job.
I would humbly suggest that without Kane and Kulak, we would not have finished where we did. Barrie had a very good playoffs but is replaceable by Bouchard. With Koskinen moving on and Smith on LTIR the goal tending is key. Assuming a resign of Kane and Kulak with room to sign the rfa’s the team is in great shape particularly given the youth pushing. Keeping Kane makes Kassian redundant. JP and McLeod are mandatory signings for the team because size and speed and the fact neither has reached their peak. Yamamoto would be a nice keep but , in my opinion, is of lower priority. Keith, Barrie and Kassian need to be moved for cap reasons to allow the team to sign Kulak and Kane and allow the extra dollars for the rfa’s and goal tending. As simple as it seems the key is fitting the players that make the team better within the cap.
Pretty much how I see it as well. And a little tweaking of the prospects. One of our LD prospects for a RW or RD prospect works for me to balance things a little. I like Yamo but to me he screams now is the time to sell high.
Interesting target for the Bolts. I wonder what Bill Daly will say about extra $616k in cap space the Bolts get when they buyout Philippe Myers?
https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/philippe-myers
I’m sure he’ll turn the other cheek because of the fact that they’re an American based team.
From officiating, to the implementation of the rules, some of these teams have a permanent get of jail card. Just my opinion.
I read something that they won’t buy him out. Kucherov’s t-shirt may have taken things too far even for them.
With this trade, where Tampa finds a team to take on a 33 year-old McDonagh with 4 x $6.75 million left on his contract without retaining or taking on a particularly bad contract in return, the Bolts have again showed their ability to wiggle out of cap hell. I hope Kenny H is taking notes.
Zach Kassian doesn’t fill a feature role, isn’t famous and doesn’t have Stanley Cup pedigree. I know we don’t value those things as much, but the general managers do. Holland doesn’t have any player he can trade with a similar resume. Kassian isn’t going to get much, and that includes a sweetener.
He’s a pugilist with speed and skill, and first round pedigree, that can fill in on any line
Wasn’t it Button who said straight away that contract was tradeable?
Kassian isn’t going to fetch a haul, but any good trading GM moves that contract no problem, especially after playoffs that were really physical
Holland isn’t that, but it’s not on Kassian if the deal doesn’t trigger or is bad . Deslaurier is apparently a hot commodity and can’t hold a candle to Kassian
Oh my goodness – he’s in his 30s now – his “first round pedigree” is a non factor.
He has speed but we rarely see him use that skill.
Not sure he’s much of a pugilist any longer given the injury history and he’s gotten hurt in 2 of his last 3 fights (I believe).
The contract can be moved if there is enough retention or positive assets added to it. Any contract can be moved like that.
Digging into Draft prospects yields interesting results. This morning I was looking into Owen Beck, a light scoring, good skating all-situations RHC Center. Of note, he was rocking a FO% above 60% and he played in the 2C spot behind Luca Del Bel Belluz, Belluz was just over 50% on the season.
Looking at them both, with the available data, they both cratered from their first half production. DBB went from 1.35 PPG and 2.9 shots per game in his 1st 34 games to 0.88 PPG & 2.3 in the 2nd half. And then in 10 playoff games went 0.4 PPG & 2.4 SPG.
Beck went from 1 PPG to 0.62 to 0.6 and 2.7 SPG to 2.3 to 3.0 in the same number of games. The number of FO’s they each took was fairly consistent throughout the splits. FYI, I was looking for some kind of injury indication this way, but didn’t see a pattern.
In going through the exercise I found a player on the Mississauga roster, who I believe to be a hidden gem, 19 YO Danish import Kasper Larsen. He is a 6’5” 230 lb LHD. What stood out for me was his point totals. Going into the Draft he is ranked around 220 as a prospect.
Skating is an apparent concern, but he was second in points only to Ethan Del Maestro, who went:
68 7 41 48 with 91 PIM. Larson went: 57 8 35 43 with 34 PIM. Larson improve his totals in the second half of the season and led the D in points during playoffs.
I also found it interesting that the 2 drafted dmen on the roster, who are 6’4” & 6’3”, led the team in PiM’s and the top 6 D were amongst the top 8 PIM getters on the team, the apparently physical and slow-footed Larsen sat at number 8.
Larson has been spoken of as having a very hi hockey IQ and his splits showed me that he got better and better in his 1st NA season. All that being said I think he would be an excellent 6th round target.
I love these deep dives into prospects. Thank you for doing this.
Hoping that if the Oilers select Beck, he is “Where It’s At” and not a “Loser”.
(Ooh, thumbs up and down have replaced pluses and minuses. Nifty!)
2022 NHL ENTRY DRAFT
4 Days 3 Hours 32 Minutes
Preds are getting an eroding player in McDonagh, but @puckiq
has him playing 36 percent of his time vs elites, and over 70 percent against good to great. He’s above 50 percent in possession + in Rel vs elites.
http://puckiq.com/players/8474151?player=8474151&season=20212022&tier=All&group_by=player_season_team
Weird. They traded Ryan Ellis a year ago to get an older guy this year.
It’s a strange deal as well because money is too tight to sign Forsberg. So, not sure where they’re going. Forsberg has far more value to them than McDonagh will.
Not commenting on the deal, but man I like how decisive David Poile is. He identifies his target and he moves early.
A big FU to his rival St Louis Blues who were rumored to be in on McDonagh.
I think there has to be another shoe to drop, but I have been wondering about the Preds for a couple of years. Thin line between genius and getting fired.
An apt description of Poile.
Come to think of it, I’ve walked that line a few times in my career. 🙂
Could also be in response to a new majority owner coming aboard. He feels pressure to take one more shot before the core ages out, and Forsberg’s also “what’s the plan” to be competitive if he comes back.
Sorry for all the posts, not trying to turn this into a Nashville blog.
Cap Friendly has Nashville with $18 million in cap space with their D and goaltending settled and only some minor RFA contracts to deal with as well as Forsberg.
Am I missing something?
Probably some trades, maybe a LD heading out. there’s something going on there.
They’re a team stuck in the mushy middle. Not bad enough to tank, not good enough to win it all. Johanssen and Duchene will regress this season.
No and yes.
Ellis hasn’t been the same player since his injury in the 2017 SCF vs. Pittsburgh. Poile (as he did w/Subban) traded for cap space taking back bags of pucks. Put another way, he went for it, didn’t get there and decided to cut his losses.
But McDonagh – as LT points out, is starting to fade. Tells me that he might be loading up for 1 more shot before Josi, Ekholm, Duchene, Granlund, Johansen are past their good thru date because their core is aging. It’s another way of saying to Forsberg they are serious about taking 1 more shot while he’s in his prime.
Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
Ryan McDonagh traded to Nashville, per #TBLightning.
My summer wish list:
1) No Josh Anderson
2) No John Gibson
3) No buyouts
The first two are negative value contracts that would likely cost us a couple assets. No to buying out Kassian because we can’t afford 4 years of dead cap space from another buyout this year given our current dead cap hit already, not to mention the $900k in overages that will affect us next year (as per Friedman). A Kassian trade with salary retained or with a sweetener added or even a buyout a year from now would be much better.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8479398
samuel Girard with the not so good very bad season.
Look at the GF%. With some of the players like McKinnon Rantanen Kadri
He dropped their GF% by 20 points!!!
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8479398
and no he wasn’t that much better the year before. He just got to hang out with Toews and the top line a whole lot
Really?
Sam Girard – xG% with:
Newhook – 71.44
Burakovsky – 60.23
Saad – 55.02
Landeskog – 62.08
J.T. Compher – 57.65
Rantanen – 64.63
MacKinnon – 64.46
Kadri – 56.24
Nichushkin – 64.94
Look at actual goals with and without
yes it’s real and it’s spectacular
Corsi % Girard without and without Girard
burakovski 51 without 57
Kadri 50. Without 59
Rantanen 51 without 58
expected gf%
burakovki 49. Without Girard 54
Kadri 46!!! Without 54
rantanen 48%. 60%!!!!!
a very weak link on an otherwise excellent team. Anyone shocked they are trying to move him?? I’m not
Vancouver should target him
And then Draisaitl should steam roll him all season long.
And give up the last of their futures for him
and he got shredded in last season’s playoffs
The Avs turned their series arounf against St Louis the game that Billington and Girard both went down. Prior to that Girard was getting owned.
Quietly on Canada Day (up Canada way, thank you Stompin’ Tom), the CHL held its annual Import Draft.
Some notable names for this year’s Entry Draft were selected:
1st: Adam Sykora – Medicine Hat
3rd: Jiri Kulich – Cape Breton
20th: Marco Kasper – Ottawa
24th: Ivan Miroshnichenko – Blainville-Boisbriand
70th: Jonathan Lekkerimaki – Vancouver
Other notes:
– The first eleven players chosen came from either Czechia or Slovakia. Even with the “embargo” on Russian and Belarussian players, that is impressive (and somewhat gratifying for me, as I have some Slovakian ancestry).
– I say “embargo” because two Russians and a Belarussian were drafted anyway. Don’t know the particulars of how/why, don’t care.
– Miroshnichenko was also selected last year, 43rd by Acadie-Bathurst.
– Brad Lambert, who is eligible for this year’s Entry Draft, was selected by Saskatoon 33rd overall two years ago. With Lambert having family roots in S’toon, the Blades took the gamble.
– Ottawa sure likes their Austrians. They’ve selected from there the past two seasons, as well as Marco Rossi in 2018.
I like seeing Sykora go so high. Implies to me that they have a sense that he wants to come over. I’d support grabbing him if they trade down into the late-2nd or early-3rd.
Man. Ken Holland, the cap wizardry.
Zack Kassian, Duncan Keith, and Warren Foegele… the drags. That’s $11.5m in wasted cap space all added by Ken Holland on a team already dealing with $4.15m in dead cap from Sekera, Neal, and Lucic. What happened to first law of holes? We’ll have to wait another year to smell the lilacs.
I didn’t know much about Foegele other than his reputation of having stone hands, but the Kassian contract and Keith at full cap were galaxy brain decisions.
We can debate the value of Ethan Bear all day long, but I don’t know that you reasonably argue that the return should have been a winger on a negative value contract.
For Keith, there’s still hope of retirement if not $3m in bonus cap as a consequence. Still not likely.
Why are the Oilers so adverse to hiring managers that are able to mind the cap?
Foegele was a bit snake bit this past season. A little better puck luck and we’re talking about how indispensable he is to the bottom 6. He’s big, fast, and aggressive on the forecheck. He’s a poor man’s Hyman and is being paid like one for the next two seasons. If we didn’t have so much dead money on the cap, we wouldn’t even be contemplating getting rid of him.
It seemed like he dinged the post or the the opposing Goalie made a huge save on him more than should be allowed. He easily could of scored 16-19 Goals.
Imo he’d be closer to 16-19 goals if he didn’t resort to pouting and just kept working hard.
Maybe a team with weak wings could keep his flame alive for top 6 time.
There’s a player there worth his current contract, it’s just the Hyde part shows up far too often when discouraged.
What is the basis for your assertions: a) that he pouts and b) if he does put, that is the cause of his inconsistent performance?
For Jesse the verbal is “he lost confidence” whereas for Foegele it’s “he should stop pouting”. I think they both had similar issues … they both get to the hard areas of the ice, but they’re not great finishers. They should both go spend some time with a shooting coach, come back next season and bury more of the glorious chances our 3 talented centres create for them.
What’s the verbal on Nuge again? I can’t remember…
😉
Nuge can drive a 3rd line, and is an ace on the PP and PK. Makes an impact on all game states but can not single handedly win a game the way Connor or Leon can. He’s the 4th most impactful skater on the team behind Connor, Leon and Darnell. And he’s on a team friendly deal, which if he can stay healthy, he should be good for.
Sorry, I thought we were talking about bad shooting years…
I think Foegele is pretty close to fair value – if he’s overpaid, it’s marginally. Problem is the Oilers have a bunch of dead cap and a couple guys who are more than marginally overpaid and LTIR and they have superstars who take up a lot of cap, so you really need guys in Foegele’s roster spot to be underpaid.
He’s not indispensable but he can come back and contribute in a third line role with trips up and down the lineup as needed.
“Mind the cap?”
We might need to find one that’s travelled to England.
I think anything big we do this year will rely on an LTIR driven late signing (using the $6.4M from Klefbom and Smith). Maybe we trade for Kane at the start of the season and use the LTIR to pay for it.
I also think you can play Draisaitl and McDavid together on line 1 (with either KY or Kane) and a second line of Hyman, Nuge and Puljujarvi. If Kane arrives, play KY with McLeod and Holloway.
Kassian’s cap hit being addressed is critical to re-signing Kulak, because I don’t think Keith will retire
I thought this:
Rather than this:
Darnell Nurse (top pair defense)
Was unnecessary.
It is if you want to win. Oscar Klefbom was Edmonton’s top pair LH defenseman when he got hurt, and Nurse was solid in the second pairing role. He might have surpassed Klefbom, but having someone as Nurse’s equal or better is a goal Edmonton should have in mind everyday.
Bouchard could be a legit top pairing guy with elite offence and good enough defence and the ability to munch 24 minutes a game.
Nurse/Bouch, in time, as early as 2023 perhaps, could be something to behold.
A developed Bouch will be the best partner Nurse has had in the top pairing.
Its coming.
It will be real and it will be spectacular.
I listed Nurse and Bouchard as being in the cluster of players who can help you win a Stanley in a feature role, but believe you need two strong additions to make a Stanley happen. We’ll see. I think Broberg would need to develop in a quick hurry or the Oilers get lucky with a trade or signing.
I think, with the emergence of Bowen Byram, the Avalanche are likely to move Sam Girard to clear cap space.
Girard is 24, signed to a sweetheart deal of $5 million for another 4 seasons.
Would he make sense as 2LD (he can play both sides effectively)?
I would imagine the Avalanche would be looking for a couple of prime, young, cost controlled assets in return.
The problem there is Edmonton also needs those assets. The issue now is making these things happen without another high pick and with the understanding that a trade as you describe is currently beyond the asset pool in Edmonton.
I don’t know.
I think moving Samorukov and Carter Savoie (U of Denver) might get it done.
Obviously, Girard moving into the LD pecking order accelerates things while there is prospect cover for Savoie.
No, because there’s cap and Edmonton needs those players as hopeful entry level bargain contracts.
Sweetheart deal??? I don’t think you understand what a bad season he’s had. A minus player on the Colorado avalanche is not an easy thing to do. Can’t imagine spending much for him
I think Bouchard add more and gives up less, and will tilt the ice more in a 2nd pairing role. i.e. 2nd toughest minutes, not the toughest.
St. Louis won the Cup when Parayko began taking on the toughest minutes, and Pieterangelo began dominating the game with the 2nd toughest minutes.
Nurse XXX
Broberg Bouchard
is how I see it in the medium term.
My model for a defense is
Shutdown pair (take on the best and all comers)
Possession dominance pair. (ice-tilters)
Reliable Utility pair
I took ‘top four’ to mean Nurse may not be top pair quality. I’m still not entirely sure your meaning, though I guess hoping for another equal or better D mostly answers it.
I guess we disagree on this. I’ve long thought Nurse was Klefbom’s equal, and/or had passed him before he went on LTIR. Nurse lead the D corps in 5v5 TOI/game for the last 3 years Klefbom played. Klefbom lead overall due to PP time, not his role 5v5 or on the PK. TOI vs. elites showed an even top 4 usage, but Nurse was slightly ahead in %TOI vs elites 2 of the last 3 seasons. Most results (overall or vs elites) show them even or Nurse ahead.
I agree that another top 4 D at some point is important. I don’t really feel like one better than Nurse is necessary or realistic though (but again, that reflects my take on Nurse’s value, which clearly not everyone agrees with).
If Nurse isn’t playing top pair his $9.25M is a problem.
Nurse is a top 15 d-man in the NHL!
He has surpassed Klefbom. If Oscar returned today, he would be 2LD.
I think we’re not connecting. I don’t disagree that Nurse has passed even if Klefbom is healthy, but Klefbom would be a substantial second pair option. That’s what you need to win a championship. Oilers lost that when Klefbom went down.
Put another way, I have Nurse listed as helping a team win in a top four role because if you’re going to win without a strong second pairing option that top D has to be Chris Pronger in his prime.
Oilers shouldn’t aim for a guy who can play behind Nurse, they should push for a guy who can replace Nurse on the top pair. If they don’t get there, close would be championship quality.
So there is Hedman, Josi, and who else. I don’t think the OIlers would be able to get Hedman or Josi. Heiskanen has been playing the right side. Toews plays with Makar.
No, but you have Broberg and Samorukov coming and maybe Niemelainen emerges. perhaps you draft someone this year who quickly develops or a European. I’m not saying spend $8 million to add on the LH side, but I am saying that position needs substantial help, another Nurse help.
I think Nurse is a top 15 d-man in the NHL – a team can absolutely win the cup with him on the top pairing.
Lets not forget who he’s done his work with the last few seasons: Bear, Barrie, Bouchard, Ceci.
Imagine if he had another legit top pairing guy, or a guy that’s even really close to being a legit top pairing.
How about a trade with the Jets?Nurse for Hellebucyk.Saves cap dollars,and goal is more important than defense,and we have a ton of good young left defencemen coming up to fill the holes.
Perhaps you consider because there’s no other way to get a Hellebuyck.
But the list of ‘good young defensemen’ is Broberg, Niemalainen, Samorukov.
Trading Nurse would leave a massive, gaping, 25 minute a night hole in the D corps that can not be filled easily.
Bouchard is an old prick.
Yes, it was unnecessary. but at least we know LT’s true thoughts on Nurse now.
Oh for Christ sake. You guys. Honestly
Even if you don’t believe Nurse is $9.25 million defenseman, his equal or better would be another salary at $8 million or more. How do you make that work under that cap? I generally concur with Staples column today at the Cult on just how good nurse really is. The only way having Nurse as your “2nd” pair defender can be afforded is if Broberg is on a very unique development curve and leaps forward several steps mostly after he signs his second contract.
I’m not talking cap, I’m talking ability. Nurse CAN play half the game but is more effective playing 22-24 minutes. Edmonton needs another one. Maybe it’s Broberg, and he won’t cost $8 million for years.
Elliott Friedman’s reporting fascinates me.
Is he reading this site???
He didn’t provide his source, wink wink nudge nudge 😉 , but says “Warren Foegele, Zach Kassian, Jesse Puljujarvi and potentially Tyson Barrie could be moved. It’s all about how much room they can clear. I believe the Oilers like Campbell”
Friedman is a good reminder that multiple teams are in on pretty much every player that anyone desires, including Brett Kulak and Jack Campbell. But interesting to me is the fact that Freidman gives us his notes on all 32 teams and the name Evander Kane ONLY APPEARS ONCE….and it’s in reference to the Edmonton Oilers. (Huzzah!)
Other interesting notes:
“It’s believed the Leafs interviewed Edmonton goalie development coach Sylvain Rodrigue for their vacant job”.
I like the allusion to: “Lamoreillo is ultra patient: Yzerman is Lamoreillo light; Pat Verbeek is Yzerman light”
And to end, yesterday’s post was titled, “Would I Lie To You”….and today, we get this from Friedman to open this weeks 32 Thoughts, “Around the draft, everyone lies”….He’s definitely reading this site 😉
Elloite Friedman is following 645 hockey beat writers; friend of hockey people; trainers; agents and the analytics crowd, capoligost, hockey people on Twitter. This is delivering the 25 really good morsels a year he his discussing with the hockey crazy.
He’s missing Yamamoto. You know your good when you can start a rumour and by the time it gets back to you it’s true.
That’s really an understatement, as I’m pretty sure you’re aware.
Even if you can:
-clear 100% of Kassian, Foegele and Barrie’s cap hits
-get Campbell ($5M) and Kulak ($2.5) on deals below what’s been speculated
-sign the RFAs to bridge deals (Puljujarvi and Yamamoto for $3M, McLeod for $1.2M)
-filling out the remaining forwards with cheap cheap contracts
After all that, you’re left with $4.4M for the final forward roster spot (Kane). And that’s with cutting corners (IMO) on all of the above.
I guess Keith retiring (replaced by Kulak) would help, but then you’d still need to add another decent Dman to pair with Bouchard or Broberg (remember Barrie has already been moved in the above).
For the contract required, including the required term, I think there are better options that Campbell.
Allen, Talbot (presuming MAF is re-signed), Reimer, Varlamov).
Don’t lock in for term to the level of tender available for free agent signing – Campbell is the most established but he’s never taken a team far in the playoffs are carried a legit starter role. That money shouldn’t be spent on a guy we think should be a solid 50-game 1A but isn’t a lock.
In my opinion.
I don’t see Talbot returning to Edmonton unless he’s a sucker for punishment.
From accounts, he loved his time in Edmonton – its where his kids were born. Chiarelli and McLellan are no longer with the org.
Also, he won’t have a choice if traded to Edmonton, and has no say in the same.
Talbot would fit the bill for sure.
Feel free to name any Goalies that have returned to the City that they were pitchforked out of. It took a few years for Talbot to regain that he could be trusted after he was shown the door in Edmonton. No way in hell is he returning to the City that said bye bye.
Pitchforked? Or traded in the normal course? A bad decision by the GM at the time, of course, but he was treated no worse than any other in his time in Edmonton.
Also, as I said, from various accounts, he thinks fondly of his time in Edmonton, the birth-city of this twins.
Not to mention that he has no trade protection so, if traded, he will return and play his ass off in a contract year – unless, of course, he wants to be suspended by the team and foregoe his salary and crush his value on the market for his next contract.
Why would Holland trade for a player who I think doesn’t want to play for the Oilers? He has as much chance of returning as Dubnyk does. What about Brossoit he might want to come back?
There is no actual indication he would have any issue playing for the Oilers.
Even if he did, he’s in a contract year and likely motivated.
Tarasenko seemed to do all right after demanding a trade he didn’t get.
Varlamov has a 16-team no trade list. I thought I had read that he used it already to block a deadline trade to the Oilers.
Reimer and Talbot are both 34–that’s an age where decline and injury are a concern. Dadbot actually turns 35 in a few days.
Allen isn’t a really high-end starter, but yeah his contract, $2.9 x 1, would be nearly ideal.
It’s not a great time to need a starting goalie.
I’m not concerned about their age and regression, we are talking about a one-year stop-gap option here.
I never said anything about the one-year stop-gap options being high-end staters – there is no such player available in free agency either, not would there be cap space to use on one if there was (and, no, I’m not going to get into finding packages that could work for a Connor H. acquisition).
Yes perhaps Varlamov says no to Edmonton. On the other, perhaps, with Sorokin taken over as the clear #1, he sees the clear path to the 1A, on a contending team in a UFA/contract year as a solid option to help his next contract.
Perhaps a cheap stopgap of Reimer or Allen make the most sense
As for Varly, I’m sure you’ve seen this already:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesNicholsNYI/status/1501230432956063744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1501230432956063744%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Foilersnation.com%2F2022%2F03%2F09%2Fapparently-semyon-varlamov-wont-waive-his-no-trade-clause-for-the-edmonton-oilers%2F
Yes, I’ve seen that. That was in-season and, I’ve explained a potential scenario now that he’s going in to a contract year.
He is just one potential acquisition target (I named 4 I think) that are established players with one year left on their contract that I think are better options than signing Campbell if the contract is north of $5MM for half a decade.
Not saying Varlamov would come to Edmonton, he very well make continue to poo poo it, but things change in a contract year and with only a one-year commitment.
I thought I had read Campbell’s next contract will start with a six?
His agent is Kurt Overcharge.
Yes, I acknowledged $5M is hopeful. It’s all speculation though. And even if that is the market, Holland might sign him forever to lower the cap hit.
Is Overhardt known to be a particularly tough negotiator?
Beyond all that, my post was meant as an exercise in what’s possible. Kane + high end starter + Kulak + keeping all the RFAs, does not appear possible.
Anxious to get Brian Lawton back in the org.
Will note, when on with Stauff last week, Stauff asked if he’d been in conversation with the Oilers over the last few months and he said he had not although he had been in conversation with the somewhat recently.
He also confirmed, 100%, he wasn’t going back to the NHL network – he likes his time there but its not what he wants to do going forward, its not his passion. He’ll definitely be joining an NHL team.
Add Lawton and promote B. Holland – this org will be taking steps on the analytical side. Lawton is big in the area and forward thinking – both these guys are from what I know.
Leavins 9 things today was pretty enlightening on B. Holland and his analytic approach. Even noted he had turned down an offer from another org.
I do think Lawton would be a good hire. He is definitely a forward thinking fellow.
I saw you post this yesterday as well, sounds like it could be a great hire given his fondness of analytics and maybe help drag the front office into the brave new world.
Is the presumption he would be taking over as head of pro scouting?
Lawton? I don’t think he’s take over pro-scouting – I think he’d be an AGM of some sort.
I think Brad Holland likely takes over pro scouting.
Friedman with a blurb on all teams and some solid stuff on the Oiler including Keith’s return “could go either way” and the McDavid/Drai playoffs changed the way players look at this team in a bit positive way:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-whats-up-with-every-team-heading-into-the-nhl-draft/
Oh, I think Ryan McLeod has moved out of the draft and in to the, absolutely, he can be 3C on a Stanley Cup winner – he’s probably there already and, if there is an argument that he isn’t, he will be soon – and he’ll be on a massive value contract for at least this coming season.
Yes, I include Ceci as a top 4D on a contender – he was probably the Oilers most consistent d-man over the season and his offensive production seemed to spike late.
There is absolutely no reason to buy out Kassian in the next week or so – if a player files for arbitration, it opens up a 2nd buyout window 48 hours after the arb award or the settlement. Kailer and/or Jeese will assuredly file.
Kick that buyout can down the road and try and trade this player. I am all for trading him with retained money over a buyout – it doesn’t save as much for this season but is the better option in years 2-4 and in aggregate.
There must be a market at 2 X $1.6MM, right?
Ken Holland is on the record in saying that he will be very creative in how he goes about creating cap space.
I fully expect Kassian to be traded with no salary retained, whatever that costs in picks or assets.
We are really not saving anything if we retain 50%. His replacement on the roster would make, say, $1 mil and thus the savings are just $600k.
He needs to be replaced on the roster and his replacement, be it Holloway or another $1MM player, will be an upgrade – its a net win.
Need to trade all of the players we don’t need plus the 29th pick to Arizona for Chychrun.Solves a lot of problems.
If you include McDavid’s first born you might be on to something.
I have found the rumoured discussions about Jesse’s camp expecting top six minutes to be interesting.
1-Who in the current view would take top 6 minutes?
i-a loaded line with Driasaitl as RW
ii-Move Hyman to RW, but who replaces him on LW?
2-If Holland said you will own the 3rd line with some PP time until you show more offense, what can be said against that.
3- Even if arbitration is $2.5-3.0M how can you replace Jessie for that amount?
If RNH can play 3rd line, and Hyman can play 3rd line, with no complaints, then so can Jesse. That’s my thing. Quit whining, and earn a spot. (If that’s actually the case)
Its a lot easier to quit whining about 3rd line minutes when you are making 5M a year. Surely Kassian didn’t whine about playjnh 4th line neither.
So it’s a conversation about money then, not minutes. Or is it a conversation about being valued?
It’s a conversation about his career. Minutes translate into dollars but also into what he thinks he is or could be. With his skating and size he probably has another 10 years in this league with luck so I doubt he wants to give up on his dream of being a top six player just yet.
If he’s actually “whining”.
What the talks have been as between he (and his agent) and the club is pure speculation from what I’ve read.
Caveat: being across the world since Tuesday, while I’m trying, I have not been able to listen to all the pods and radio hits as normal (still read everything though).
Jesse has played in the top 6 almost exclusively since he came back from his season in Liiga. He was moved down in the last 1/3 of this season and playoffs but, other then that, he was almost exclusively with McDavid or Drai (or Nuge during load up).
Presuming he is on the team, he will spend a ton of time in the top 6, on merit, without “promises” or “demands’.
Smith, klefbom and Keith- add on sekera, and you got 13.4 million dollars worth of nothing coming off in a year.
But it seems this might be a perpetual conversation.
Smith isn’t dead cap.
He’s been a value deal for 2 plus years as an Oiler and, this coming season, presuming Klef’s contract is still on the books and the team is in LTIR in any event, Smith on LTIR means he doesn’t really hit the cap this year at all (he does, of course, but “effectively” he doesn’t).
This is true. But tell me this, my understanding is they need to be cap compliant day 1 without hiding ltir contracts. We will have 6.7 in ltir with smith on. How much cap can you bury with paper transactions at the beginning of the year? At what point does it become tough juggling the opening day roster with ltir? Are we worried at all about that?
They don’t have to be cap compliant on day 1 – they can use off-season LTIR.
To add a little bit to this –
From PuckPedia
https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/LTIR
If a team cannot be cap compliant on opening day without using LTIR, the LTIR Pool is the amount the team exceeds the Cap. For example, if a team is $3M over the Cap and places a player on LTIR with a $4M Cap Hit for the opening roster submission, the LTIR Pool is the $3M that the team exceeded the cap
So on the last day of training camp, Kenny will assemble his ‘active roster” (min 20 player, max 23) and get as close to $82.5M as possible, declare Klef and Smith on LTIR, and submit his roster to the league, and that amount will be the Oilers LTIR pool for the season (roughly $6.3M)
The Oilers then “draw down” or “spend” from that LTIR pool throughout the season – if a player from the active roster gets injured or sick, they still count against the cap, and recalling a player from the AHL “draws down” their daily cap hit amount from the LTIR pool while they are on the active roster.
And because you’re over the cap from day 1, you don’t accrue any cap space throughout the season to use at the trade deadline
It can be managed of course, but LTIR is no way to run a railroad
you don’t accrue any cap space daily to bank AND you do not get to pro-rate the cap hit of any player acquired in-season and need to fit their full 100% cap hit, annually.
Getting Klef’s contract off the books will be huge for in-season manouvering.
For Oilers fans
You know the pain destroy delight
Delight divides the pain
Tried to run
Tried to hide
Break on through to the other side.
Let’s do this!
The end, your only friend.
A quiet moment of clarity.
The path forward is clear.
“The total savings are $9.5 million. That should get the Oilers Evander Kane and Brett Kulak. Holland will need to get creative in signing Jack Campbell and re-signing Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod.”
So let it be written: So let it be done!
Plan amended below:
“The total savings are $9.5 million. That should get the Oilers Jack Campbell and Brett Kulak. Holland will need to get creative in signing Evander Kane and re-signing JP, Yams and Ryan McLeod.”
We chased our pleasures here: The Entry Draft
Dug our treasures there: Free Agency
But can you still recall
The time we cried: Taylor Hall
I can only open the Doors: It’s up to you to walk through them.
#ManicalLaugh
Man, we already have over $5 million in dead cap space this year including the bonus overages. That’s not including Klefbom LTIR $4 million that prevents us from using that space until the season starts.
Yet another buyout (Kassian) will be hard to swallow even if it is the right move.
Yes dead cap space from buyouts handicaps the team. Bad GM signings are the gift that keeps on giving!
We will almost assuredly have bonus overages next season presuming we are in LTIR again:
1) Bouchard will hit all of his again – 4 sched A bonuses, $212,500 each for a total of $850K
2) Broberg has the same potential for 4 sched A bonuses, up to $850K – he could hit 1 or 2 for sure.
3) Holloway can hit for up to $500K – it might be tougher for him to hit any but he could hit one or two.
Any hit bonuses will reduce the cap, dollar for dollar, in 2023/24 (presuming over the cap in LTIR this coming season).
I also don’t see any way its the “right move” – kick the can down the road given the team will very likely have a second buyout window (opening up 48 hours after the last arb case is awarded or settled – Jesse and Kailer both likely file).
Trade the man at up to 50% in the interim – there much be at least one team willing to take him at 2 X $1.6MM.
Doesn’t save as much cap space for this coming season but a much better way forward in aggregate – in my opinion.
Or just send Kassian to the AHL. Doesn’t get you ll the cap savings next year, but he’s not on the books for 4 years either