The End of the Innocence

by Lowetide
Photo by Mark Williams

We will know today (at 3pm Edmonton time) if Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto have filed for arbitration. Edmonton has four RFA’s and $7.6 million to use in cap room and LTIR overages. If JP and KY sign for $3 million each and McLeod signs for $900,000, the club will remain short and have just 11 forwards, 7 defensemen and two goalies. This can’t be done if the two wingers file for arbitration.

THE ATHLETIC!

50-man list

If the Oilers are going to move salary in order to make more roster room, I’d suggest Warren Foegele or Tyson Barrie the most likely candidate to move. Barrie has value, Evan Bouchard can slide in and fill his role and maybe Philip Broberg plays his off side. I’m not thrilled with that option, less thrilled with moving Puljujarvi out. I think both JP and Yamamoto have earned contracts (as has McLeod) but money’s too tight to mention. We could find out something today.

If Puljujarvi is dealt for something other than a replacement winger, I think we should be ready for Zach Hyman at the top fo the RW depth chart. I prefer him on the left side, but the club has four left-wingers who can play even with Hyman on the other side. Ken Holland will want to get these four (Benson the fourth) contracts done soon, there’s still much work to be done.

You may also like

4.4 13 votes
Article Rating
284 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
kgo

If we get two unfavorable arbitration hearings then a foegle buyout isn’t so bad as far as worst case scenarios. I think Holland is in a good spot for negotiations…being tight to the cap helps him bargain, having competing RFAs helps him bargain, having Kane and Kulak sign for below market helps him bargain, having strong winger depth (albeit LW) helps him bargain, Jesses trade demand helps him bargain, the flat cap helps him bargain….for these reasons I don’t see Holland budging from his presumably low offers of 2.3-2.5

MrEd

If the rulings are the same for both Yamomoto and Puljujarvi and the Oilers are forced to move one of them- is it possible that it ends up being Yamamoto because he has some value on the market? Is this the plan?

TheGreatBigMac

There might be some difference in value in the market. A big difference is that Yamamoto is an RFA for 4 more years vs 2 more years for Puljujarvi. I think that is where the preference to trade JP comes from.

Last edited 2 years ago by TheGreatBigMac
TheGreatBigMac

Looking at the cap this morning, the path seems pretty straightforward. Trade Foegele and a sweetener (23 3rd, maybe we get a lower pick back) for some cap space. Then sign Yamamoto and Puljujarvi for $2.75M each. Sign McLeod and Benson for low dollars and run with a 22 man roster for the season. The end.

If Kailer or Jesse don’t want to cooperate, then Jesse has to be traded too. Probably something like Jesse for McCarron and a 3rd from the Predators would be an expected sad return.

Last edited 2 years ago by TheGreatBigMac
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

If Holland can get Yamo and JP at 2.75M each, he deserves a medal.

TheGreatBigMac

Yes, both are giving a discount. You won’t know if you don’t try. It’s a raise and chance to get a cup. The fans and team will love you for it.

Last edited 2 years ago by TheGreatBigMac
defmn

Pretty sure it has been tried. That’s why they are going to arbitration.

TheGreatBigMac

Maybe so, we wait for the returns and the numbers then.

Scungilli Slushy

I’m not sure what Montreal is doing but they have few NHL D. Maybe there’s a landing spot for Barrie if Holland still wants to move him to gain cap

But they don’t have much cap, Forward group is pretty good, lots of picks

Munny 2.0

Was this posted but I missed it? Apologies if so, but I’ve just noticed that PLD has asked to be moved to Montreal. The second trade request of his short career. And if he can’t be traded only contract he will sign is one that walks him to FA. What is with that draft year?

Dubois even attended the 2022 NHL Draft in Montreal because he believed a trade to the Habs would be completed on the draft floor, sources told The Athletic’s Arpon Basu and Murat Ates. The Canadiens reportedly offered three players to the Jets for Dubois but were unsuccessful. Winnipeg is apparently holding up a deal by asking for a player Montreal refuses to move.

Suzuki? They had about the same number of points last season.

defmn

Chevyldayoff holding up a trade? Who’d have thought that would ever happen? 😉

Primetime

Probably too late for a response so will repost tomorrow sometime. But with all the chatter about NYI on this blog and others, the trade I would like Holland to pursue would be:

Puljujarvi/Barrie for Beauvillier/Mayfield.

Pure hockey trade. The salary should almost match out (depending on when Lou forces JP to sign an “offer you can’t refuse”.
It puts the Oilers in much better balance, for a Cup run, with enough cash to re-up McLeod short term and maybe Yamo longer term.

Primetime

Kane-McD-Yamo
Hyman-Drai-Beauvillier (can switch sides with Hyman)
Foegle- RNH- Ryan (had a fairly successful run prior to RNH injury)
Holloway- McLeod-Janmark

Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Mayfield

Campbell
Skinner

defmn

Just catching up after being on the road all day and reading all the posts about how there isn’t enough money to sign Yamamoto & Puljujarviever seemed to be a consideration when some of us were advocating for a low cost vet to pair with Skinner rather than spending $5M on Campbell but here we are with too much month and not enough money.

A little bit surprised that JP didn’t have an offer sheet given the upper limit being over $4M for just a 2nd round pick but now Holland has some serious work to do.

I’m happy to see Holland working on the bottom of the forward roster.

Munny 2.0

Every time Lehto balks at a lowball number, doesn’t Holland just look over and say, “I thought you want your client traded?”

The problem with the strategy Lehto has chosen is you cannot maximize both money and mobility. They are inversely related. Want to be able to move? Then you have to sacrifice some moolah.Go all the way to arb and win a big award and then you can’t be traded. Meanwhile you’ve burned bridges with the team you now have to play for.

The offer sheet process should have told Lehto at what price Holland could possibly move his client. He’s probably not real happy with the information he received.

This could be over real fast and easy if they want it to be.

defmn

Agreed except I think it is always the player rather than the agent who is calling the shots. The agent just gets paid to take the blame.

OriginalPouzar

but there aren’t any accounts that Jesse is looking to be traded and hasn’t put in a trade request. Sure, I don’t think he’d bawl if a trade did come down but, from accounts, he likes playing in Edmonton and is just fine playing for the Oilers and with the dressing room, etc. – he simply wants some assurances on role.

Now, I’m of the opinion that he shouldn’t require those assurances (and that, if he looks at the two years, where the vast majority of his TOI was top line) but would/will earn the role on merit but, as far as looking for a trade, I don’t think that’s actually the current situation, is it?

defmn

“Looking for assurances” on his role as a top six player is just agent talk for “wants to be paid like a top six player”.

jp

I’m not sure it’s only that though. By the sounds of things Puljujarvi was unhappy with his TOI (which really only got reduced during the playoffs). We heard about this almost immediately after the exit interviews. It seems likely that ‘paid like a top 6’ is also a factor, but I I’m not convinced it’s the primary/only one.

Scungilli Slushy

3 of the top 4 2016’s are taking the hard way into the league. Nobody is happy

Play better, do what’s asked and see what happens

Reja

We’ve all told the 1 joke about assurances or most of us have.

Diablo

There are still some pretty big name UFAs not signed, who want to go to contenders. But the amount of cap space left on contending teams is pretty slim right now.

Multiple teams are trying to dump contracts on the have nots … the market is stalled as a result. Most of the better teams have their own RFAs to sign too. Unfortunately for Jesse, the decision to apply for arbitration came due in the middle of this stalled free agency market. When the dust settles, I’m not sure there will be a team with enough cap space to offer Jesse 4 million … at least not one Jesse would be wise to sign with.

There’s also some potential dominos to fall on the trade speculation market that have the GMs preoccupied including Tkachuk, Dubois, Chychrun, Kane, Toews, Tarasenko and JT Miller. Plus Columbus is over the cap and needs to shed some contracts.

But some of these have not teams that would be in position to give Jesse the top 6 minutes that he wants … like Chicago and Arizona … are a dumpster fire right now. If that’s his best option for a pay day this summer, then the wise thing for Jesse to do is sign a 1 year deal for slightly more than what he made last year, and spend one more season on McDavid’s wing pumping up his value. He’ll be one year away from UFA at that point, and can negotiate from a much stronger position next summer if he puts up the kind of numbers that his analytics say he should be capable of producing.

Carolina doesn’t want Jesse … they have their own unhappy RFA in Necas to deal with. They also just committed a big chunk of cap space for Pacioretty.

I’m starting to think that Holland will manage to bridge all 3 RFAs on 1 year deals … 2 million each for Jesse and Yamo and 1 million for McLeod. Any more than that, and I think they’ll just buy out Foegele, since that would give them 1.875 million this year and over 2 million next year in savings, with 1 million cap hits for two more seasons after.

I don’t think Edmonton has any interest in trading Barrie. And there is absolutely no reason for NYI to send us their value contract in Mayfield. Likewise Klingberg likely lands in Seattle, if he wants to get paid top dollar, so they’re not going to trade Soucy for Barrie.

Janmark is not necessarily a Foegele replacement either… he’s also competition for Holloway … Janmark’s contract can be buried in the minors if Holloway wins that competition.

Of all the RFAs that filed for arbitration this summer, I see only two that are going to get really big raises … Bratt and Mangiapane. All of the rest of those players are going to settle before they get to arbitration for Engvall like numbers (aka – much less than you thought they were going to get) … because cap space is tight.

Munny 2.0

When the dust settles, I’m not sure there will be a team with enough cap space to offer Jesse 4 million … at least not one Jesse would be wise to sign with.

At this point Jesse cannot sign an offer of any amount other than one from the Oilers. If you mean post-arb award, and assuming it’s high and assuming the Oilers walk away, why would there be any expectation of getting an offer in the $4M range with others signing in the 2s?

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
defmn

And what do the Oilers do if the arb award is $3.75 and they can’t walk away? There is a reason all those teams didn’t qualify their RFA’s.

OriginalPouzar

They’ll find a way to fit it in and watch Jesse provide value for the contract.

defmn

I have your assurance on that do I? Somebody is going to have to go if Puljujarvi & Yamamoto are staying. There are 4 spots to fill to have a 22 man roster and less than $6.5M to pay for them.

PB guy has to take league minimum – $750,000
Now you have to tell McLeod, sorry, only $900,000 for you
Yama & Pul? You each get $2.4.

I don’t see it. That leaves them one body short of a full team and 27 cents for emergencies. Somebody has to go.

OriginalPouzar

Ya, I don’t imagine the award will be over the walk-away threshold which I believe is over $4.5MM.

As far as his point on buying out Foegele, while I don”t see it at all, the Oilers will have a 2nd buyout window open after the last arb case is heard or settled.

defmn

When the dust settles, I’m not sure there will be a team with enough cap space to offer Jesse 4 million

==========================

I guess the question, then, is what does the arbitration award come in at for he and Yamamoto and what does Holland do when he cannot afford either one or is unable to trade either one because their cap hit is too high?

I guess we wait to see what happens and as has been said here by several posters most of these never make it to arbitration.

Munny 2.0

I posted the Laffs signing Engvall lower down today’s thread, but it largely went unnoticed.

This news item is worthy of attention because Engvall was an arb-elegible RFA. If you recall he received 1×2.25 M.

He scored 15-20-35 in 78gp this past year, going from .286 points per game to .449, a nice step forward.

Yams was 20-21-41 in 81gp (.506) and JP 14-22-36 in 65 (.554). So obviously they deserve more than Engvall, but they can’t be demanding much more, unless they really do want to go to arb. In fact, $3M looks like too much.

Holland’s job is to use that Engvall contract and others similar, and grind down the respective agents. And as I have said before, I would be looking to sign the two to matching contracts. That might take a little longer, admittedly, but also might bring some reason to the office of one Mr. Lehto. Well, Mr. Agent, sir, Yams is willing to sign it…

Matching contracts shows no favourites and keeps the two competing against each other for the next contract.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
OriginalPouzar

Its too bad that Quality of Linemate cannot be used as evidence as Engvall saw almost zero time with any of the Leafs top 6 players – like less than 50 minutes all season.

Munny 2.0

Very good point. And thanks for looking it up.

jp

But wait… isn’t JP as good as gone? You took me to task for it this morning 😉

Munny 2.0

Yes, I was quite punishing, lol. “Stwike him woughly centuwion and thwow him to the gwound!”

I still think he’s likely gone. I’m just blah-blahing the topics of the day (again). In the light of the negotiation, this is how I would go about doing things.

Not to mention it could be the signing that brings about the trade if the number is a good one. Like Defmn I think the org has reached their limits with this player and his agent. But no way Holland let’s it get personal. He won’t trade him for nothing. So there’s hope. But it’s based on other teams not thinking JP is worth a shot, so there’s some irony there.

jp

Haha, it definitely is the season for talking about unlikely things.

Agree on that approach to negotiating, though it’s less straight forward if the player is really set on a fresh start.

jeetz

Really, the Oilers just need to resign their 3 RFAs with the dough they have from Smith and Kef going on LTIR.

It will be tight and Holland should be the GM of the year if he gets it done. To get the team back together with a few light upgrades, and just let Woodcroft rekindle the magic from last year.

No more moves required until trade deadline unless Patrick Kane becomes available.

Reja

I wouldn’t call Campbell and Skinner replacing Leaky Mikko and Old Man River a slight upgrade.

Diablo

Smith was capable of going red hot for stretches. That skews the comparison a bit. That being said … Smith hasn’t actually retired yet … so it’s more like Campbell, Skinner with Old Man River biding his time to let his body heal up in case the team needs him later in the season.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think that is really going to be the case. Sure, Smith’s body may heal with the time off but will he be training to play in NHL games – not from accounts…..

jp

not from accounts…..

Have there been accounts? Genuinely curious as I have no idea.

OriginalPouzar

The accounts being Holland saying he’s not playing “this season” – not that he’ll start on LTIR and we’ll see how his body recovers, etc.

It didn’t sound like he was going to rest and then start training – without real training, he won’t be in shape to play at any time, right?

jp

It’s true that Holland didn’t say Smith is planning to train with the goal of recovering.

Wasn’t his quote on LTIR something like “Smith will be on LTIR” though? (I may be misremembering). I felt like it was far less committal than ‘will not be playing this season’. I thought it left the door open more than you’re reading into it.

OriginalPouzar

Smith had a better save percentage than Campbell this past season and the season before…..

Reja

How was Campbell save percentage from over 150 feet? I believe opposing Coaches told their team to shoot from anywhere and often on Mikko and Smith inflating the save %. How’s Campbell win loss record? I was a big fan of Smith even he knows he’s done time to move on.

Scungilli Slushy

I think this played into it. I’m looking forward to hopefully normal goalies

Material Elvis

Does anyone listen to the Locked On Oilers Podcast? Is that Jack Black hosting the podcast?

OriginalPouzar

Not since Hernan left – can’t stand the new guy.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’ve brought up my trio of fringe desirables from NYI before, Clutterbuck/Mayfield/Martin.

Cal wears an A, is not likely to be let go without an overpayment. Mayfield is a rugged RHD on a value contract which means we’d likely get fleeced by Lou. What are the chances Martin would slip through at a doable price point?

Munny 2.0

The more I look at the roster, the more I believe that if they’re keen on Barrie. Clutterbuck is do-able. But they have to have a desire for Barrie, and Lou is a guy famous for building bunkers, not artillery. But if it is there, and I’m sure Holland has called, then Mayfield + Cutterbuck would make me very happy.

NYI should be breaking it up for a re-build, but they’re entering a seaosn in a new building and the pressure is to win now. They have eff-all left in the cupboard for prospects, have as much cap pressure as us, and the only way Lou can change his team is through trade.

I’d really it rather be Foegele though. Especially now with the all new Leftorium.

AMD

Maybe Johan Larsson, is next for the Oilers

Munny 2.0

Been watching the video of Janmark… The guy is real quick, we can say that. But even on shootouts and penalty shots he goes shot. There’s not a lot there in terms of shiftiness. He’s less shifty and physical than Archie, but has better hands and is cheaper.

I like better hands and maintaining team speed, but man this team is missing a lot of hits over last season.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Are they missing that many hits? I guess Kassian was second on the team. This year we will have Kane for a full season and Kulak for a full season.

OriginalPouzar

For at least a material portion, the Kass and Archie hits were not effective hits, in my opinion – essentially getting bangs in on d-men well after they had already moved the puck up and out. Maybe over the course of a playoff series that could add up but they didn’t do it consistently enough to my eye.

jp

Just gotta play Malone more 😉

It will be interesting to see who they round out the forward roster with though (new hires I mean).

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
jp

but man this team is missing a lot of hits over last season

Hmmm, what have Holland teams looked like in the past?

The NHL started tracking hits in 05-06 after the lockout.
So the Red Wings ranked:
05-06 23rd (124 Pts, 1st overall, got knocked out Rd. 1 by the Oilers)
06-07 25th (113 Pts, tied for 1st overall)
07-08 25th (115 Pts, 1st overall, Stanley Cup)
08-09 23rd (112 Pts, 3rd overall)
09-10 8th (102 Pts, 7th overall)
10-11 18th (104 Pts, 6th overall)
11-12 25th (102 Pts, 7th overall)
12-13 29th (96 Pt pace, 12th overall)
13-14 26th (93 Pts, 14th overall)
14-15 28th (100 Pts, 11th overall)
15-16 25th (93 Pts, 15th overall)
16-17 23rd (79 Pts, 24th overall)
17-18 27th (73 Pts, 26th overall)
18-19 21st (74 Pts, 28th overall)

I dunno, he may not care at all about the missing hits.

jp

S’pose I should add the Oilers in here too.

Pre-Holland
16-17 6th (104 Pts, 7th overall)
17-18 2nd (78 Pts, 23rd overall)
18-19 4th (79 Pts, 25th overall)
Post-Holland
19-20 10th (96 Pt pace, 12th overall)
20-21 5th (105 Pt pace, 11th overall)
21-22 15th (104 Pts, 11th overall)

Diablo

Holland has steadily moved the Oilers away from being focused on gritensity to one that is modelled on the characteristic of their best player … speed.

defmn

And that has included speed of decision making. Moving the puck quickly which always moves faster than any player can skate.

hunter1909

Oilers look to be some kind of contender next season.

Mayan Oil

Did a quick update on my spreadsheet for this season and next.

For Cap purposes wanted to see worst case costs, top 14 F by salary ( re arbitration assumed McLeod at 2×1.25 bridge, Benson 2x850k, Puljujarvi and yammo at 2×2.75 each), top 7 D by salary (Bouch at 3m next year as wild guess). Assumed Fogele moved out for suitable alternative at 1.5×2 and Barrie moved for suitable Soucy 1@2.75, reupped or replaced next year at 3.5M. Assumed Skinner reupped next year at 1.5M.

With buyouts and retains, we would be at 80768333 for this year with LTIR of 6367000 of LTIR and previous bonus overage of 896000. Leaves us under the cap by 835667 this year but with LTIR issue restricting moves to money in/money out.

Next year we would have spent 81230000 after buyouts and retains. NO LTIR. possible bonus overage from this year of 2200000 ( Bouch 850k, Holloway 500K, Broberg 850k), assuming cap goes up marginally to 83500000, we would be under the Cap by 70K.

Tight fit. If we do Barrie to NYI for Mayfield he is under contract for two more years at 1450000. THAT, or a similar cost player would be much easier to fit and give us a little more wiggle room until the escrow payback brakes are eased.

This will be a very interesting summer. We are closer to cleaning up our payroll bloat than we were a couple of weeks ago, but there is still a little ways to go. Hold on tight,

Munny 2.0

Isles will need to send us more salary to make it work and do they have another roster player they’re willing to give up? The hope is Clutterbuck but the Isles like him a lot. How much do they like Barrie? We don’t know, hopefully a lot too.

hunter1909

Heartening to read how NHL fans give Oilers 100% chance to make the playoffs. And several give them the Pacific.

Complaining now about how the East has too many good teams and the West is a cakewalk for 2-3 teams.

Woodguy v2.0
Diablo

Very informative .. thanks for posting this.

Munny 2.0

Courtesy of the PA

TORONTO (July 17, 2022) The National Hockey League Players’ Association announced that 24 players have elected Salary Arbitration:
Mason Appleton (Winnipeg Jets)
Ethan Bear (Carolina Hurricanes)
Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils)
Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes)
Morgan Geekie (Seattle Kraken)
Mathieu Joseph (Ottawa Senators)
Kaapo Kahkonen (San Jose Sharks)
Kasperi Kapanen (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Keegan Kolesar (Vegas Golden Knights)
Oliver Kylington (Calgary Flames)
Maxime Lajoie (Carolina Hurricanes)
Steven Lorentz (San Jose Sharks)
Isac Lundestrom (Anaheim Ducks)
Zack MacEwen (Philadelphia Flyers)
Niko Mikkola (St. Louis Blues)*
Andrew Mangiapane (Calgary Flames)
Matthew Phillips (Calgary Flames)
Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton Oilers)
Tyce Thompson (New Jersey Devils)
Yakov Trenin (Nashville Predators)
Vitek Vanecek (New Jersey Devils)
Jake Walman (Detroit Red Wings)
Kailer Yamamoto (Edmonton Oilers)
Pavel Zacha (Boston Bruins)

Munny 2.0

well two names stand out lol.

JP has given up on the offer sheet route. Now we see how serious the arb filing is. Is it a “bluff” and can a deal be made?

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
geowal

Mangiapane…what kind of wild award could he get?
$5mm? $7mm? More?

Munny 2.0

Yeah, if I were them I’d let Tkachuk go and clear up some cap space…

😉

Woodguy v2.0

As expected, JP and Yamatoto file for arbitration.

hunter1909

Seems pretty hostile and confrontational for two players who although have developed ad nowhere near the finished article.

Put Yamamoto’s head and heart in JP’s frame and that’s a superstar NHLer.

Redbird62

Nothing hostile whatsoever. Arbitration is a normal and acceptable bargaining tool available in the CBA to both RFA players and their teams. I am pretty sure Holland does not think less of either player because they chose this direction.

OriginalPouzar

Agree, Holland should have no ill-will.

At the same time, the hearing itself, from accounts, can be quite brutal and the team (and player) generally try and avoid it going that far and agree on contract terms prior.

I hope that is the case for both these guys but, damn, the process is much quicker this off-season due to the late finish.

Arb hearings start like 10 days from now – usually there is like a month plus before.

Munny 2.0

Yes, it is nice that we don’t have to wait around so long this year. Things should move fast.

OriginalPouzar

I’m just concerned that its not enough time to get a deal negotiated and one (or both) case(s) will actually head to arb.

1 out of 62 arb filings over the last 2 seasons actually made it to a hearing (I believe).

Munny 2.0

That’s up to the agent. UFA deals can get done in one day. Deadlines and ticking clocks are marvelous for getting stuff accomplished. Some get done outside the arbitration room just before the hearing, IIRC. If ten plus days isn’t enough, it’s because the player’s camp wants arb. And if that’s the case, sooner is better than later.

W

Doesn’t he need a set of hands as well?

Last edited 2 years ago by W
Diablo

It’s a mechanism to ensure that a deadline is set for the player and management to agree to a new contract, so that the player is in training camp on time. Nothing more, nothing less.

Reja

They both have stone hands. We are finally going to see since Maroon departure someone with soft hands that being Kane and how many he can knock home playing with Leon and Connor this year. Kane’s no spring chicken at 31 years-old and he’s not on PP1 but he’ll shatter his career best of 30 this season. Kane figured it out at seasons end. 1. Keep stick on ice 2. Drive to net. 3.Tap in puck 4.Beat the shit out of fairly or unfairly anyone that messes with your 2 meal tickets.

Last edited 2 years ago by Reja
jp

Doesn’t he need a set of hands as well?

I believe the arbitrator decides that.

Harpers Hair

Since the players filed, the team gets to choose either a one or two year deal.

What would you do?

Redbird62

I see you learned some of the arbitration rules since your post earlier today that Yamamoto would get comped against 2 8 year contracts.

Harpers Hair

Those contracts had nothing to do with arbitration.
They were signed, like so many others, to lock in impact players and you can bet an arbitrator will look at them when deciding compensation.

Obviously Yamamoto doesn’t merit that keep kind of contract but those expecting a contract extension starting with a 2 are in for a rude awakening.

Material Elvis

You were incorrect, RedBird called you on it, but still your ego won’t allow you to admit that you made a mistake.

jeetz

I disagree.

JP has been right on the dot for paid salary. While I think he had bad luck with COVID and his injury derailing a promising season. Is results do match his earnings. I do think this is the year he blows the doors off. But he hasn’t yet

Yamo has been gifted lots of playing time with Drai (mostly) and McD. So his stats are very underwhelming. He is a turnover machine though and that is why Drai likes playing with him. Still he has been paid fair so far as well.

lenko

Turnover and likes don’t go well together.

OriginalPouzar

There is no doubt (in my mind) that both those players vastly outperformed their respective cap hits this past season.

20 goals and 41 points (plus PK) for barely over $1MM – that’s an extreme value contract no matter who the linemates are. Same with Jesse.

Harpers Hair
Munny 2.0

James Mirtle
@mirtle
·
5m

Leafs sign Pierre Engvall. One year at $2.25 million.

AMD

Maybe the Oilers try to sign Danton Heinen

Munny 2.0

I think there’s a good chance the Flames are looking at him.

Bobcaygeon

Carson Soucy – Barrie
Lawson Crouse – Benson & Foegele
Kasperi Kapanen – Puljujarvi
Ethan Bear – Prospect & pick

that’s it, that’s the post.

106 and 106

The Ty Rattie and James Neal days are over.

Smart pickup for one year on the cheap for Janmark.

meanashell11

I agree. Hopeful at least.

Last edited 2 years ago by meanashell11
Bulging Twine

we’ve come a long way in our top 6

Last edited 2 years ago by Bulging Twine
Mayan Oil

Any news on arbitration filings? I believe the deadline is closed, or am I mistaken?

meanashell11

5pm eastern

Reja

How many times has another G.M offer sheeted Holland? I couldn’t find this information the other day but I’ll go on a limb and say zero.

Munny 2.0

Grimson and Federov.

Edit: (Holland matched on both, if that wasn’t obvious)

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Mayan Oil

IIRC the Federov one was pretty nasty too. Carolina (I think) really stirred the post on that one…

OriginalPouzar

Plus, presumably, various offers over the years that weren’t accepted by the player and never saw the light of day.

Munny 2.0

Yes, *offers tendered > than offers signed* will always be true in the real world. Even in the seasons where a player signed an offer, the most likely scenario by far is that they sought and received multiple offers and signed the one that suited them best.

jp

FWIW Grimson was before Holland was GM (his first year as AGM I believe).

And he inherited the Fedorov situation the first year he was promoted to GM. Maybe his first major test at mending fences since Fedorov remained with the Wings for next 5 seasons and 2 cups).

Revolved

I love this time of year and wish we could get all the details at the end. There are so many ways this can play out, but it’s like a mystery novel where it is never what you expect it to be. The only news and rumors we get to hear are the ones management wants us to hear.

I think all the RFA come in below the dollars we’re expecting. Holland will “try” to trade JP, but just can’t get the value he needs and convinces him to do one more season to prove his value around the league.

Munny 2.0

Every September should feature a “Behind the Scenes Look at the Summer” two-hour video special.

Doubt the teams would go for it, but man, would that make for some insights…

TheGreatBigMac

Would be fun but will never happen. Most players don’t want to know they were the third, fourth or fifth option, that management wanted to trade them. The fan base doesn’t want to hear that players don’t want to come and are asking for extra from their team, etc. We hear about some of this and teams work hard to manage it.

Durag

Offer sheet Tkachuk

Munny 2.0

How many picks are you giving away to troll a fanbase, lol?

Ehh. Probably worth it. 😉

Durag

Sometimes you just have to do something on principle

Kert

Ew. I don’t think I could cheer for a team with him on it.
How about this: send him an offer sheet, but for $2M a year. Not a fuck you to the flames, but a fuck you to him personally.

leadfarmer

The issue isn’t whether the team likes JP
im sure they like him just fine
the issue is the risk of being stuck with a bad arbitration decision

Orion

Question for people…
The assumption is that Foegele gets traded, but if a similar player can be had for half the price, how easy is it to actually trade him, and how much do you have to give up? The Oilers have traded away so many draft picks – even if the Oilers are in win-now mode, how much appetite is there to lose another one? Maybe the answer is to trade for a similar right winger, but who would be available? Making a useful/palatable trade doesn’t seem all that easy…

Last edited 2 years ago by Orion
Revolved

I am also surprised by the negative value attached to $3 million contracts these days. I don’t see a market for Foegele, so I think they’re just going to have to make it work some other way.

What’s the minimum number of players for the roster when the LTIR number is judged?

Randle McMurphy

The market for Foegele could be something like

Foegele, a 2nd and a 5th for “future considerations”

With the market resetting at the low end in real time, if there are enough quality $1.5m contracts out there, it could be worth paying to move Warren Foegele. (and move the Shore’s, Benson’s and Malone’s to the A)

Arbitration awards are going to be FASCINATING!

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Munny 2.0

Arbitrators could technically award more AAV than is truly available league-wide (given some teams’ internal constraints). And the zero sum nature of the award process is not conducive to avoiding that end.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Munny 2.0

that said, most cases will never get there

Harpers Hair

Arbitrators are not allowed to consider teams’ cap space or financial situation.

OriginalPouzar

If Foegele does have negative value, it certainly isn’t near the level of paying a 2nd and a 5th to dispose – that’s not far from Kass at 2 X $3.2MM of negative value.

Randle McMurphy

Perhaps, but everyone was surprised at what it cost to move Kassian: Move down 3 spots in round 1, a 2nd and a 3rd

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
OriginalPouzar

I wasn’t surprised by the cost (and I don’t think it was an overpay given what we’ve seen as the cost to dispose of anchor contracts over the last few years).

In any event, surprised or not, the market has been set and I wouldn’t come anywhere close to paying a 7th to get rid of Foegele. One could argue that his contract isn’t even negative value, at least not materially. I suspect Holland would view it the same.

Bank Shot

I was kind of expecting it to be a giant hassle to unload any contracts this offseason.

Looking at capfriendly coming into the offseason showed more teams than not in trouble with capspace.

Now everyone is capped out, and the few teams with sizeable cap room (Buffalo,Anaheim, Arizona) are on record saying they don’t really want to spend.

They will likely take good players with good cap hits and probably get some as other teams will need to maneuver.

pts2pndr

It always sounds easier! The reality is most hockey trades take a good deal of time due to the complexity of contracts among a plethora of other things!

jeetz

I do not believe Foegele is over paid. 2.7 mil for a 26 year old 3-4 liner consistent 10-13 goal scorer over 4 years who does PK.

The oilers haven’t had that player in FOREVER. Keep the player. These next 2 years are his prime years

OriginalPouzar

Its mind-boggling to me how one can think that Foegele was value for $2.75MM this past season but Jesse and Kailer didn’t out-perform their cap hits of $1.4MM and $1.2MM.

HenryDrix

Makes no sense to sign another LW, we need right handed shots!

geowal

Wouldn’t want to take playing time from Devon Shore and Brad Malone

Last edited 2 years ago by geowal
Surgeons Knot

I believe the outgoing player will be Barrie for picks, but I am just spitballing. We’ll know soon enough

pts2pndr

Barrie for picks would be ideal given the team’s current prospect pool and cap situation.

Mayan Oil

Barrie has more value than a handful of lottery tickets. I still like Barrie for Soucy or similar D, with some sweetener coming our way. I would look at Seattle and NYI as good starting points.

That said, I wouldn’t mind Barrie for one more year to give cover to Bouchard while he transitions up the lineup. D development and straight lines, after all…

Last edited 2 years ago by Mayan Oil
pts2pndr

Barrie’s primary player value was in his offensive ability which is now replaceable by Bouchard on a cheaper contract. Arguably Barrie’s minutes can be replaced by AHL ready D. Barrie’s number one value is he can be moved to give cap relief!

OriginalPouzar

The only right shot AHL level D is Deharnais and, while I know Woody likes the player, I still consider him a long-shot and likely to top out as a tweener. Also, pairing him with Broberg would be shocking and, if he’s not, well, one of those two is up the lineup….

OriginalPouzar

Ideal for cap space but not for the right side of the d-group….

Bank Shot

Kane
Hyman
RNH
McLeod
Foegele
Janmark
Holloway
Shore
Benson
Malone
Savoie
Petrov
Schaefer

Left-Wingtorium

Last edited 2 years ago by Bank Shot
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Hyman and Foegele can both play RW. Both RS iirc.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Foegele shoots left but plays either wing.

pts2pndr

RNH and McLeod are natural centres. I believe Petrograd is also listed left wing/center.

OriginalPouzar

Holloway as well.

jeetz

Wow

OriginalPouzar

We know that Brad Holland thinks that Jesse is a valuable player – he was fairly glowing when interviewed by Stauffer and Nugent-Bowman.

Now, what we will find out is how much Ken Holland values the opinion of his new AGM and head of pro scouting!

Munny 2.0

I really don’t think how this plays out is a judgement of how Ken values Brad’s opinion at all. There will be a myriad of factors to consider, nor do we know how the two Hollands think about the player in private, which will be different than the tidbits offered for public consumption.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

100%.

pixel-bender

There are too many variables to use a potential deal to measure the Younger Holland’s influence. The primary one out of their control — what other teams are willing to pay in any deal.

Looking at the roster, I would assume that dealing Foegele is the primary goal. But who knows if plans A, B, C, or D end up making the most sense.

Todd Macallan

As per Puckpedia twitter: Yams and Bison both expected to file for arbitration. Other interesting names expected to file include Bear, Mangiapane and Kylington.

Last edited 2 years ago by Todd Macallan
OriginalPouzar

Here is hoping – shields Jesse from an offer sheet and they will simply continue to negotiate the contract and hopefully agree prior to the hearing.

Munny 2.0

lol

Munny 2.0

If this is true, it means that Jesse is not seeking an offer sheet. Or has been dissatisfied with the offers tendered. Not that he is shielded from them, like he was seeking protection from something undesired.

pts2pndr

I believe OP was looking it from the team prospective.

Munny 2.0

Somewhat agreed. It’s really coming from his own personal perspective, ie OP would be shielded from worrying about an offer sheet, but he continues to misstate that reality.

“Somewhat,” because that’s assuming Holland or the team doesn’t want an offer sheet. They do at the right numbers. They just don’t want to have to match one over a certain AAV or term.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Todd Macallan

Nic Roy also expected to file. I like him, may end up another casualty of that fine cap mgmt in Vegas.

Redbird62

The odds of Jesse being lost an offer sheet have always been low. Not impossible, but still very low. Since 2005, there have been only 10 offer sheets, and only 2 not matched: Penner and Kotkaniemi. The compensation is stacked in favour of the team losing the player.

Since Holland made it clear he is not giving up Jesse for picks, and anything under $4.4 million is a second round pick, the other team would have to have a significant premium on Jesse’s value to bid high enough that Holland would not match, probably well above $3 million per season. Or they’d have to be willing to significantly over pay Jesse for one season. And the teams that maybe have cap to burn for a year say like Arizona, do they want to get into this kind of strategy; I suspect not.

We will find out in the next few hours if Jesse files for arbitration that he has no offer sheet he and his agent were willing to sign, if one was even offered.

It will be interesting if the system for RFA offer sheets will be anything the players want to see adjusted in the next CBA. It certainly doesn’t appear outwardly to the fans at least to be something that currently provides RFA’s much leverage.

Last edited 2 years ago by Redbird62
Munny 2.0

Agreed, I said the very same last night. I think the Jesse camp is a little boxed in here.

leadfarmer

guess Janmark is cover for Holloway in case he needs more percolation

Bank Shot

Seems like Janmark will be an everyday player for the Oilers to me.

Usually sits around tenth in ice time per game for his previous teams.

He was 4th in TOI for the Hawks.

Takes a regular shift on the PK.

I wonder if he can play RW?

Might be Foegele replacement if Foegele gets traded for cap space.

leadfarmer

Predictions for contracts
Yamo 2×3.5 or 4×4
McLeod 2.2 x 2
JP gone

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I think McLeod can be signed for cheaaaaap. He does not have arb rights and very meh counting numbers (to be clear I like the player but he has very little leverage).

OriginalPouzar

McLeod will be closer to $1.2MM than $2.2MM, I presume.

leadfarmer

One of Foggy or JP must be on the move

Munny 2.0

As JP points out below, it can’t be an “or”. Foggy AND another contract.

innercitysmytty

If it’s Foegele without a contract coming back that should be enough cap savings to get everyone signed and fill in the blanks with 2 more league min contracts.

Munny 2.0

There would not be. Even without two league min signings or the ELC bonuses that will be triggered, you’d likely be well over the cap, depending on the exact number you got the trio of RFAs to sign at.

innercitysmytty

If Foegele is traded with no cap coming back we have a hair under $8.3 million in space, including LTIR and Holloway on the team. If the three RFAs come in at $6.5 million that leaves enough for 2 players at $900k each. You’re right that doesn’t factor in bonuses and it’s unlikely you’re getting the 3 RFAs at that price, but I wouldn’t say it’s definitively impossible to make it work.

Either way I’m not sure it matters because all signs point to both Foegele and JP being moved regardless.

Munny 2.0

If Holland can sign the 3 RFAs at that amount he deserves another key to the city this summer. That would be fantastic. But unlikely.

OriginalPouzar

Potential performance bonuses for the ELC contracts won’t hit the cap this season – of course, if any are vested, given the team will be over the cap in LTIR, they will once again create a cap penalty for next season.

The caveat to this in players on ELCs with performance bonuses that are not on the opening night roster but are called up in-season – those performance bonuses do effect the cap.

Expect Holloway and Broberg on opening night roster (which is likely the case anyways but Holloway may get more AHL time, we’ll see).

DevilsLettuce

Foegele has to be on the move, had some high hopes until the pouting became visible.

Oilers should try to keep Barrie, Bouchard with PP1 time going into a contract year should be avoided at all costs lol.

geowal

You can’t hold back a River forever. Bouchard will get his PP time

DevilsLettuce

I agree he definitely gets some, but Barrie should be 1st option. Let the flood gates after a more team favorable contract has been signed, unless the goal is for Bouchard to come in over 8 per.

pts2pndr

The goal should be to get him signed long term and be given the requisite playing time to assure he is ready for the playoffs!

OriginalPouzar

Pouting? Visible? I saw nothing of the sort.

Redbird62

At least the second time he/she has made this claim without any tangible support to back it up.

Munny 2.0

A player must be outgoing and cap space must be incoming in the very near future. And judging by the number of LWers, obviously something must give.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Shane

Looks like it. I’m very confused at todays signing because, as LT would say, there’s too much month at the end of the money here..

jp

It’s looking like two of the ‘usual suspects’ are heading out at some point.

I’m hoping/expecting the cap savings will be turned into two or three more roster players with AAVs in the Janmark range.

Munny 2.0

7-11 might be playing a role. So maybe one less F.

IF they have decided to keep Barrie, to me that tells me they will be seriously considering running 7-11 through most of the regular season.

Randle McMurphy

They should be considering running 7-11 through most of the season. Broberg, Niemelainen and/or Samorukov will need sheltering

jp

Yes, that’s definitely possible.

If they do that, and the D are from in the system (or added for under $1M) they should have something like $3M to add two new forwards to the group. That seems very realistic.

OriginalPouzar

While clearly not afraid to use 11/7, I do think the coaching staff would prefer a more standard 12/6 the majority of the time. Having a more serviceable 4th line is important.

I am not in the “finding extra minutes for McDavid/Drai” as I think the opposite is what’s needed – try and cut back their tough minutes as much as possible through the grind of 82 game and a 2-month playoff run.

Bulging Twine

..

Last edited 2 years ago by Bulging Twine
innercitysmytty

Why in the very near future? Can go up to 10% over the cap in the off season and they haven’t signed the RFAs so there is no rush.

Munny 2.0

Like signings, trades won’t wait forever, and moves tend to be linked. Also have to possibly cover an offer sheet at any time, if that’s the plan.

innercitysmytty

I still don’t think there’s a rush. We’ll
see what happens.

Munny 2.0

It’s not that there’s rush, although there is a ticking clock. It’s that these things tend to have a particular timing. A GM rarely signs a replacement for a roster player and then waits on trading the guy being replaced for weeks.

And as that clock ticks and the GM becomes more desperate to divest the asset, more bargaining power is handed to the prospective trade partners.

Typically GMs will want to be proactive in these situations. If it takes weeks, it likely means something went sideways. And if you simply wait weeks to act, you are almost guaranteeing something goes sideways…

Not about “rush”. It’s about best practices and being proactive. About avoiding any sort of rush.

geowal

There’s always the solution of not matching the offer sheet.

Munny 2.0

I do wonder if Holland is closer to accepting a pick for JP now than he was earlier in the off-season.

Mayan Oil

Problem is, you still have to make a move by the end of the off season to be compliant and everyone else knows it. You can end up bent over a barrel…

Munny 2.0

Bingo.

John Chambers

Who would you go long on?

McLeod 6 yrs x $2.2M
Puljujarvi 5 yrs x $3.75M
Yamamoto 4 yrs x $3.25M

You can only pick one 😉

jp

McLeod at that number. Hands down.

Edit: now I’m reconsidering, can I change my answer to no one?

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
Randle McMurphy

Ditto. McLeod hands down.

I’m not reconsidering. 🙂

jp

I certainly don’t mind that deal for McLeod at all. I considered reconsidering when thinking ‘what’s his likely AAV ceiling?’.

Unless he catches onto a role in the top 6 there’s a good chance it never gets much above $3.2M.

Bridging for 2-3 years at $1.2M saves $1M a year vs. the $2.2M x 6 deal. He’d need to perform well enough to get his salary OVER $3.2M in the later part of the 6 years in order for $2.2M x 6 to be better value than bridging.

Also, $1M in cap now (next 2-3 years) is worth more than it is in years 4-6 (both because the cap will be higher, and because winning now is more important than hoping for a better tomorrow).

Randle McMurphy

very good reasoning, No argument from me.

Not sure if a bridge deal gets signed at $1.2m (might be closer to $1.5m) Putting that aside;

I might refine your argument to a 2m savings on a two yr bridge, wherein the last 4 yrs would then have to deliver more than a $500k savings per year.

So is McLeod going to be worth more than $2.7m in the last 4 yrs.?

And your calculation that $1m savings in each of the first two yrs is worth more as a percentage of cap is valid.

I’d sign it anyway.(bird in the hand logic for me)

jp

Yeah, I agree there’s an argument for it. I just think the lower AAV now is really important, and with McLeod and his probable lineup slot it’s unlikely his future AAV jumps too dramatically.

pts2pndr

This is the thinking that helped get us the Nurse contract! While I understand the logic of bridge contracts unless there is a necessity due cap crunch it leads to overpaying overall or the loss of said player!

McSorley33

McLeod

Bulging Twine

Yamo at 4 yrs would be poor roster building imo
We’d only get him through his 26 year old season and then he is a UFA. At a very young age. Puts us in a terrible bargaining position for his next contract and him in a great one.

so basically all you are guaranteeing to get from your 1st round pick is 6 and a half seasons.

got to get more out of him

Last edited 2 years ago by Bulging Twine
Bulging Twine

same with McLeod at 6 years. You are putting yourself in a terrible bargaining position and possibly costing yourself out of a really good player by marching him to free agency at 28

have to strategically time your contracts appropriately to maximize your usage of your good players to help you win.

I would recommend a 3 year bridge deal for McLeod. He’d still be an rfa upon it’s completion.

Then if you still deem him a keeper sign him to an 8 year deal and you get him for his best years.

It’s the Tampa way

Last edited 2 years ago by Bulging Twine
Randle McMurphy

You are absolutely correct if long term sustainability is your goal. Which it should be.

I’m old and put too much of a premium on the next 4 yrs.

I’d sign the McLeod 6x$2.2m just for the certainty of having him locked in at reasonable price during this first cup window..

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Psyche

I’d probably take Yamamoto for 4 x $3.25M. I have a feeling he’s looking for a 4 x $4.0M.

Puljujarvi at 5 x $3.75M could be turn into an overpay or an underpay. He is a roll of the dice.

Harpers Hair

In looking at Yamamoto’s draft cohort in 2017:

Robert Thomas – St. Louis – Just signed an extension 8 X $8.125M 241GP 164P

Josh Norris – Ottawa – Just signed an extension 8 X $7.950M – 125GP 90P

Kailer Yamamoto – Edmonton – 186 GP 93P

I would imagine Yamamoto’s agent is looking at those numbers and preparing his arbitration case.

DevilsLettuce

2 players both with better pts/game while not playing with McDavid and Draisaitl and you’re going to try and gaslight the group into thinking Yams is on pace for a 60+ million dollar contract lol.

Your curse has melted your brain.

Harpers Hair

I would think an arbitrator would look at this numbers and come up with something in the $5 million range.

Redbird62

Do you know the rules for arbitration? I am guessing not. I am sure you will quickly go read them again, and come back and claim you did.

Let me spell it out for you. Player says he wants arbitration. Team gets to pick contract length- 1 or 2 seasons. Oilers likely pick 1, but maybe 2.

The arbitrator won’t even have this 8 year contracts as evidence because 8 year deals are not comparable.

Last edited 2 years ago by Redbird62
OriginalPouzar

LOL – of course the counter is 77P in 72 games for one and 35G and 55 points in 66 games for the other.

Hardly comparable contracts.

tsunami

Which brain 🙃 ?

Harpers Hair

Can’t imagine why any of the players would sign those contracts.

leadfarmer

I love how all the oilers players are “dime a dozen players” except when they need new contracts

tsunami

Right ? This guy is confusing himself 😂

DevilsLettuce

That’s odd because you imagined the OEL lead Vancouver Canucks would finish 2nd in the division.

Bulging Twine

for Puljujarvi, he has 5 accrued seasons towards UFA status.
I would sign him to a 1 year deal
he’d still be an rfa after this season
then if things get sorted this season, maybe he is a keeper and you sign a longer deal then. Maximizing player usage or whatever

Last edited 2 years ago by Bulging Twine
Munny 2.0

Those are strange ways to go long. I’m with JP, I do not offer any of those deals.

Like the other commenters, McLeod is the only one of the trio I would offer a long contract. It would not look like that though.

Randle McMurphy

McLeod contract structure is not ideal….but I’d still sign it.

#Window

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Munny 2.0

But there’s no pressure there. Just sign him to a 2 year deal and then go 8 years if the plan is to sign him long. The odds of him being worth a more than 3M two years from now is not high.

Randle McMurphy

Very True. But I’m stuck in the construct presented by John Chalmers.

Munny 2.0

Cut the Gordian knot! There are FOUR lights!

He broke his own rules and chose them all. I feel that gives us plenty of leeway to choose none. 😉

Randle McMurphy

snip snip, snip snip, SLASH! Done.

DevilsLettuce

McLeod is the only choice.

Puljujarvi’s management is under the belief he’s a top dollar winger.

Yamamoto needs more years on that deal or else it ends with the player leaving with nothing in return.

John Chambers

If Ken Holland frees up enough space he should make all those deals.

This is an opportune time to go long on Puljujarvi. The first half of this past season is a good measure of his potential where at times he played like a $5M player.

McLeod is becoming a 3rd line C and the baseline for those guys is $3M. His speed and smarts make him an NHL player and a deal like this becomes a value contract very soon.

Yamamoto I’m less certain about. His ceiling is limited he has competition coming from Bourgault. This pays him through Bourg’s ELC and by that time the Oilers will need money to re-sign McDavid.

Holland’s MO has been bridge deals, but as we saw with Nurse this causes a higher price tag as you approach UFA. Better to use the current cap space to get value out of our complimentary players during their competitive window.

Diablo

I love how HH conditions us to expect the worst … it makes me feel so much better when his gaslighting turns out to be completely wrong.

Randle McMurphy

It’s the opposite for me. I’d prefer short term on JP for sure and short term on KY as well. I’m just not confident yet that either player is a great fit for a cup run.

McLeod I have more certainty about as a bottom sixer and a greater anticipation for his potential to grow into an above average 3C fairly quickly.

An above average 3C at $2.2m is “value”

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
jp

If Ken Holland frees up enough space he should make all those deals.

But he can’t really, though.

To be clear on the implications of those deals to next years team – to fit the 3 deals you mention, Holland would need to trade both of Foegele and Barrie, and replace them for $2.7M total.

And unless he spends less than $2.7M on the Foegele/Barrie replacements, he also can’t make any additional signings (or trade for players) that cost more than the guy they’re replacing (so the likes of Shore at $850k could potentially be improved upon signing someone for… $850k).

Bulging Twine

That SECOND bridge deal for Nurse was atrocious imo
It made him a UFA at the earliest possible time that he could

the FIRST one was okay, I would have preferred 3 years instead of 2 though

we would have a much better 8 year deal now

Last edited 2 years ago by Bulging Twine
OriginalPouzar

I don’t think any of those players would sign those contracts.

McLeod assuredly wouldn’t.

Munny 2.0

A Dec 92, Janmark was drafted over age by Holland in 2013 after he popped in the SEL the season leading in.

He’s always been very mobile, excellent skater, but lacks some strength and sandpaper.

He played 55% of his time last season against gritensity and split the balance between the elites and middle comp pretty evenly.

He had some scoring years with Dallas during the mid ‘Teens and fine year for Chicago in 2020, on pace for 20. He hasn’t potted a lot of goals for Vegas, appears to be more of a playmaker in their line-up.

He sucks ass at faceoffs and really hasn’t played C since his second season in Dallas, when, judging by his falling FO numbers, he appears to have been converted to wing.

He kills penalties, usually second PK team. Had two shorties last year and set up another. He was on for 11 goals against on the PK in 80 minutes of time, in other words as about as successful as KY was this past year.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Bulging Twine

a fellow Swede for Broberg can’t hurt

judgedrude

Question regarding LTIR. We all talk about it as free extra cap space, but I remember the issues always being that on Sept. X, you must be cap compliant before putting somebody on LTIR, and when you go into LTIR, it is a one shot deal…so you can’t re-up the LTIR ceiling afterwards.

So, if this is true (and please let me know if I’m mistaken), if we wait to sign JP and/or Killer until after the start date, it wouldn’t matter if we signed them to $2.5M or $3M or more to maximize the LTIR room because once it is set, we can’t change it. Being at the max LTIR or not, we can’t accrue cap space, so it wouldn’t matter.

So, in a sense, having one of them wait to start of season should maximize their contract, no? Particularly if they are willing to take a 1 year contract.

So, please, Capologists, please let me know if this means sense or identify the holes in my understanding.

Randle McMurphy
Redbird62

If Puljujarvi or Yamamoto file for arbitration, they will either be signed by the Oilers, traded or UFA’s by the end of August. They become UFA’s only if the arbitrator rules that they are entitled to salaries above $4.5 million in which case the Oilers can decide to not sign those. Any award below that and the Oilers are obligated to sign the contracts, but they can still trade them.

if they don’t file for arbitration, they can still get an offer sheet from another team. Those are still fairly rare but not impossible. If they don’t get an offer sheet in and haven’t filed for arbitration, then either party can drag out signing a deal into the start of the season.

The other issue is the whole LTIR before or at the start of season deadline happens at the end of training camp. So to employ this strategy, Yamamoto and/or Puljujarrvi being unsigned would almost certainly have to miss camp which is far from ideal.

OriginalPouzar

This isn’t quite accurate.

A team can use off-season LTIR in order to get cap compliant but it sets their LTIR reserves pool (subject to additional LTIR placements in-season) so its very important to ensure that the active roster after using off-season LTIR for compliance is as close to $82.5MM as possible.

Waiting until the season starts to sign RFAs isn’t really a viable option in most cases as most players won’t want to attend training camp without the contract in place. Insurance can be bought, etc. but there is risk.

judgedrude

Thanks all. I think that I was unaware of the ability to use off season LTIR… It makes sense that you can. I just remeber some time in the past of teams needing to get compliant by the start of the season. I think even the Oilers waited until after the season started before signing a PTO free agent.

DBO

Janmark seems like a Foegele replacement. Saves $1.5 mill on cap. I expect we see him dealt for picks or prospects.

They still need a top 9 RW unless they do plan to play Human at RW. But if they move Jesse then you still need a RW.

Kane.McDavid.Hyman
Nuge.Draisatl.Yamamoto
Holloway.McLeod.Puljujarvi
Foegele/Janmark.Shore.Ryan

Unless they play Foegele with McLeod and Holloway at 4C. Or Holloway at 2LW and Nuge at 3C and McLeod at 4C. Lack of Right handed faceoff options is a potential problem.

Randle McMurphy

That lineup right there isn’t half bad.

Will be very interesting to see if Janmark is a Foegele replacement as a cap saving move, or a Shore replacement as a player upgrade.

Either way, it works for me.

Optimism is like heroin

I don’t think it’s as bad as you think with rh face offs. Hyman covers for mcD, Drai needs no help, McLeod can cover 3rd line RH draws if RNH is 3c and Ryan covers 4th line.

Munny 2.0

Trading Foegele is the right move, as much as I love some McLovin. Barrie brings more value for his contract.

jp

I don’t think that alone gives you enough cap though.

Not if Holland is going to go all luxurious and sign bottom 6 forwards for $1.25M 😉
(and I’m not kidding there, everyone else would have needed to come in at like 800k if the only move was Foegele departing).

Munny 2.0

I think we have to assume that JP is getting moved, JP. I know we’ve been talking about it kind of in a “separate box” or at arm’s length, but I think we have to accept it is part of the master plan and integrate it.

jp

Yes, agreed. Though I didn’t realize that was implied in your comment about Foegele departing.

Munny 2.0

Understandable, as I was just responding to the “Foegele replacement” part of DBO’s comment.

Optimism is like heroin

Imo Barrie is who should go right now. I would keep Foegle to move at the deadline. Barrie’s cap could cover his replacement and make sure there is enough for the rfas. Deadline is different as we will want to upgrade areas of weakness, contracts need to be dollar out for dollar in. Meaning foegle is the dollar out that will allow us 5.5 million in upgrades.(upgrades all being 50% retained).

Material Elvis

Who is replacing Barrie in this scenario?

OriginalPouzar

If Barrie is moved, an established RD needs to be added – sure, the “Barrie for Mayfield plus a 3rd” swap sounds amenable from and Oilers standpoint but who knows what Lou L. thinks about taking on the extra cap (even though he has reiterated his desire for more offence from the back-end).

As far as trading Foegele at the deadline, sure, maybe, but the deadline isn’t usually a time when players with term get moved.

John Chambers

Janmark had a real nice playoffs with Vegas a couple of seasons ago.
Its a step-up offensively from Devin Shore.

OriginalPouzar

Don’t know much about his game – on a quick look, generally above 50% in expected goals with about even offensive and defensive zone starts.

Looks to be a PK2 guy (minute to 1:30 per game generally).

Don’t know much about his speed, general defensive acumen, etc.

OriginalPouzar

I think its a good cheap depth signing but I don’t know enough about the player. Looking forward to learning though.

Todd Macallan

I have read his speed is very good. One inch shorter at the same wt as Foegele, for those who view him as a possible replacement.

AMD

Average ice time 14:20

Bulging Twine

yes, the Tuch, Roy, Janmark line was excellent that playoff (I think that was the line). One of their own players said they were their best line.

Munny 2.0

1×1.25 M

Randle McMurphy

6’1″ 195lbs. Left shooting C

But I doubt th Oilers hired him as a center

Very poor FO%

Poor possession numbers

Some ability on offense.

3rd or 4th liner? Was getting 3rd line minutes (14-15mins) with Vegas

Looks like he has some penalty killing ability.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Harpers Hair

Likely a Foegele replacement.

judgedrude

Originally selected 79th overall by the Detroit Red Wings, …..

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

If Holland can get JP and Yamo for less than 6M combined I will be so happy.

Randle McMurphy

“The End of the Innocence?”

or the end of the innocent?