The Edmonton Oilers signed an NHL depth forward yesterday, Mattias Janmark will work on the fourth line with Derek Ryan, Devin Shore, Brad Malone and a long list of youths trying to push up to the NHL. The expectation is better performance from the fourth line at five-on-five, and Janmark has good speed and some skill.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: Skinner’s rise shows importance of homegrown goalies
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- DNB: Oilers’ Zack Kassian trade clears crucial salary cap space, so what’s next?
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers look to RFA’s to find solutions?
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
OILERS SCORING TOP FOUR LINES
When we look back on the season to come, one of the key questions will surround balanced outscoring on all four lines. Here’s how things looked one year ago five-on-five:
- Connor McDavid 54-34 (61 percent)
- Leon Draisaitl 50-43 (54 percent)
- McDavid & Draisaitl 16-14 (53 percent)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 20-20 (50 percent)
- Ryan McLeod 21-26 (45 percent)
- Devin Shore 4-6 (40 percent)
- Derek Ryan 16-28 (36 percent)
- Misc 0-2
Janmark’s five-on-five expected goals (50.6 percent) is a positive, even though the line he was on didn’t put enough pucks in the net to land near the expected. Janmark with Nicolas Roy went 8-7 goals five-on-five over 228 minutes. Maybe Ryan McLeod, Derek Ryan or Greg McKegg will partner with Janmark to form an effective fourth line. The trio doesn’t need to score much but must outscore.
One quick addition: the Oilers had superior numbers after Jay Woodcroft was hired:
- Connor McDavid 35-19 (65 percent)
- Leon Draisaitl 26-19 (58 percent)
- McDavid & Draisaitl 4-3 ( 57 percent)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 12-12 (50 percent)
- Ryan McLeod 14-15 (48 percent)
- Devin Shore 1-3 (25 percent)
- Brad Malone 0-1
- Derick Brassard 0-1
- Misc. 1-0
Four lines are there, although Woodcroft often ran just three lines and two extra wingers. A RHC for the fourth line would probably be ideal, but there’s still a few things up top to fix, so getting that final forward on the roster feels like an August detail.
POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER
This is Warren Foegele to Seattle for a draft pick, and signing center Johan Larsson for the fourth line. Only 21/23 players, there’s slightly less than $500,000 for the cap. I assumed generous payments for Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto from arbitration.
I feel fine and I feel good.
Calgary
1LW: Gaudreau leaves – no external replacements as of yet – internal options to move into the top 6: Coleman and Dube. Sutter played Coleman more and Coleman is being paid like a top 6. Doesn’t matter, one of them will move up.
2C: Monahan – injury related performance moved him from 2c to 3c to 4c to scratch to LTIR
Backlund moved up and is there as of now. I’m sure they’d prefer an upgrade, they’ll have to be looking soon as he is 33. I will say I thought he was one of their better players against us in the playoffs.
3C: Backlund moved up. They auditioned Ruzicka but felt they needed someone else for the playoffs. They traded some good assets, yay, for Jarnkrok. A rental. As of now it looks as though the spot is Ruzicka’s to lose.
4C: started with Richardson, changed throughout the season. Now have Rooney. Possibly Rooney pips Ruzicka’s spot.
3W: As a result of Coleman or Dube moving up, Lewis moves up here (based on TOI in playoffs). Sutter likes him.
21 year old Pelletier. Former first round pick (26th overall) who had a good year in the A (62pts in 66 games) should be fighting for a winger spot. Possibly that Lewis spot in the 3rd line with Dube and Ruzicka.
3RD: Gudbranson out Meloche or Valimaki (L shot) in.
Goalie: Markstrom’s glove hand was exposed bigly in the series against us. How is this just coming out now? (he’s 32) Did he have a hand injury? Interested to see if it becomes targeted.
…
OP talking about the team being worried about the arbitration hearings got me thinking. What if the team gets a favorable result for both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto?
We still don’t know if Puljujarvi will be happy returning to the team, but if he’s got a contract in place, and Holland won’t trade him, it’s pretty likely he comes back. And even if he’s not, obviously a low AAV award would help lubricate the trade market.
Anyway, if both guys get awards at say $2.3M (and Puljujarvi is willing), well THEN LT’s roster above could be a reality. I’ve been playing it safe in my head assuming $3M-ish for them both, but awards really could be lower.
Recent arbitration awards for forwards (plus Puljujarvi and Yamamoto for comparison):
(I’ll show the 2 seasons before the arbitration decision, and pro-rate games for Covid shortened seasons, but not for injury)
Puljujarvi
65 14-22-36
81 22-15-37
Yamamoto
81 20-21-42
76 12-19-31
Tyler Bertuzzi 2020 $3.5M
82 24-31-55
73 21-26-47
Andrew Copp 2019 $2.28M
69 11-14-25
82 9-19-28
Evan Rodrigues 2019 $2M
74 9-20-29
48 7-18-25
Alex Chiasson 2015 $1.2M
76 11-15-26
79 13-22-35
Mike Hoffman 2015 $2M
79 27-21-48
25 3-3-6 (mostly in the minors)
Marcus Johansson 2015 $3.75M
82 20-27-47
80 8-36-44
(plus 3 previous NHL seasons, the last 2 not included over 0.5 pts/game)
Mangiapane gets talked about too, but he signed following the hearing rather than being decided by the arbitrator. But anyway,
Mangiapane 2020 $2.425M
68 17-15-32
44 8-5-13
A bit of a mixed bag, but it definitely looks possible the awards could be below $3M.
So… sticking with my $2.3M for both of them, LTs roster may still be possible.
Kane-McDavid-Hyman
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Holloway-McLeod-Puljujarvi
Janmark-Larsson-Ryan
xxx-xxx
/
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
Niemalainen
/
Campbell
Skinner
I left Shore, Malone and Benson in the minors as depth and there’s about $2.2M for the last 2 forward spots.
Not sure how likely this is, but it does look pretty nice.
thanks for this, hopeful
Apparently the Flames are taking Turtlechuk to arbitration … I forgot that teams can do that. Lol … that’s going to end well for them.
Trev should trade him, blow it up and try again. Lol
I expect they have failed to get him to sign an extension and are now hoping an arbitrator will award him less than his QO….making him more attractive as trade bait.
Once they know that number they will attempt to move him for maximum return, take a step back in the upcoming season while getting Lucic and Monahan off the cap and enter next offseason with
about $30 million in cap space.
Not the worst position to be in.
Unless you are season ticket holder who doesn’t get to sit next year out!
The arbitrator will 100% not award Tkachuk an amount less than his QO given the flames need to offer an amount at least as much as Tkachuk’s last year’s salary, $9MM.
Teams take a step back to reload all the time.
Sure.
Except in Calgary’s case you could argue they’ve been reloading since 1989.
At $40,000 for four lower bowl tickets plus food and parking. If the game is not entertaining and it remains in an old building … it might not be sold out each night or there might be more tables at the Telus Club and whose game jersey are the +50 years old going buy?
The Flames management is not choosing to do a reset though; if it happens, it is being thrust upon them. Treliving will likely not get the chance to do the reset.
Yup, big pool of free agents next year. 35 year old Patrick Kane, Van Riemsdyck, Lucic. Monohan, Paciorety, Okposo, Tarasenko. Flames will go to town. Dont expect Mackinnon to be a free agent cause, well…Sakic.
There are many ways to acquire top end talent if you have the cap space.
Except with little talent on the team, Calgary will likely be paying a premium just to attract free agents to play for them.
Obviously it’s not the WORST but there is little point in Calgary having 30 million and so few good players to compete with.
UFA’s aren’t lining up to freeze in cowtown, while riding in endless plane rides to play the games, worried about their trophy wives ha ha
The Flames would be commencing a rebuild of anywhere between 5-10 years.
Matt more than likely let Johnny know his plans on not returning. Johnny bailed first more to follow Lucic might be back in the top 6.
Haha. They just lost their best player and are most likely about to lose their next best soon. Everything is just peaches 🍑.
You should take a step back and reset.
Calgary Flames
The Flames have filed for club-elected salary arbitration with Matthew Tkachuk. This provides us the opportunity to continue to work with his representatives towards a contractual resolution while removing the possibility of an offer sheet.
Keith from day 1 has played Pizza Boy like a School Girl, this will not end well for Brad.
Eric Francis just posted that he thinks Tkachuk’s days in Calgary are over
If they’re ‘taking a step back’, why don’t they just allow an offer sheet and take the 4 first round picks as compensation?
There’s probably no bids at that level.
Then why would they worried about an offer sheet? If it’s below $10.5M wouldn’t they be happy enough to match? His QO is $9M, right? And matching something below $10.5 would ensure he doesn’t walk in a year.
Unless he’s actually asking for something absurd? So they want to go the arbitration route since they think they’ll win, and then at least he’ll play next year?
That’s a good point. Well it could just be words, posturing, but you’re right, we should examine other possibilities.
Could be Flames are thinking they have their one and two Cs figured out, plus a top end goalie, so the plan is to find a way to scratch out wins and be competitive under Sutter. No rebuild.
Which means they want players back, not picks. And they need time to put something together. Wonder if they’re eyeing Ottawa’s roster up and down?
This too is possible. Tkachuk is in a no-lose situation. Either he gets one year at last year’s very generous salary and gets to walk at the end, or one year at an even more ridiculously generous salary, and gets to walk at the end. I wonder how much ordinals play in the arb rulings because he’s now their top scorer.
That said, I’m not sure how likely this is. It seems a very hostile maneuver and Tkachuk would have been sure from the get-go the team would elect for arbitration. Would they sink to such measures in front of a damaged fanbase?
Hehehe, a Tkachuk? I can’t imagine it..
If he’s leaving within the next year asking for something unreasonable could make sense. Good chance it even speeds up the timeline for departure.
Buying more time to put together a trade they like could definitely also make sense.
A re-set is not the same as a rebuild.
They have an elite goaltender, an above average D locked in at great cap hits and decent forward depth.
If they can get a top line forward and other assets for Tkachuk they’re not far off.
So what we are hearing is Treliving has now entered your pantheon of genius GMs that have figured out how to out maneuver the rest of the NHL teams. Too bad the Oilers have Holland.
Who’s going to be the new G.M and Coach. If they don’t build a new rink in the next 5 years I could see them being relocated.
Yeah, we’ll see how that goaltender and D look with a decimated forward crew in front of them. They didn’t look so hot in the Canadian division a year ago.
And “if they can get a top line forward and other assets for Tkachuk they’re not far off“.
Aaah.. they still need to replace the career years of their two best players. You forgot Johnny Hockey’s 115 points +64 on top of Tkachuk there.
I mean, they missed the playoffs a year ago with both of them, plus that elite goalie and above average defense. It looks like it could be pretty bleak.
Your homering and naivity would make Flames fans blush.
No GM is offer sheeting Tkachuk for 4 1st round draft picks in the cap era.
See my reply to Munny then. The only other reason I can see for them electing arbitration is if they think they can win (ie – Tkachuk’s ask is totally out of line).
I think Eric Francis being a insider has nailed it on this whole scenario. I’m starting to actually like Francis. He doesn’t sugarcoat like Cassie, Button, Hrudey,Stewart and MacLean I’m probably missing a couple more Flame Lackeys.
What did Francis say? I’ve been in the states for 10 years, I don’t even know what network he’s on.
You LIKE Eric Francis?
Gross.
Except when Kevin Lowe offer sheeted Thomas Vanek in 2007.
BIG Thank You to Marc for posting the link to the JFresh article below.
That is the most detailed analysis I’ve seen to date on the pro’s and con’s of JP’s game.
I’ll leave you to read the conclusion for yourselves, but the article reinforced my belief JP in the neighbourhood of 2 x $3.2m is fair value (even if Holland couldn’t find a trade partner that was willing to acknowledge this level of value)
Also hoping JP will embrace a middle six role.
The things he is very good at are baked into the equation; the things that he is not so good at could still be overcome/improved on over time, and as such form the basis of a “reasonable/good bet”
Having said that, if JP and his Agent insist on a move, I hope they do their part to make it happen and sign below $3m.
That was an excellent post from Marc.
I think the play ahould be to get Puljujarvi signed for term. He’s a very solid player in some aspects of the game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pop. His size and forechecking aren’t going away, and those are at the core of what make him an effective player.
Regression suggests he’ll have stretches (as he did to start this past season) where the pucks go in and he’s producing like a top-6 player.
It wouldn’t be wise to sell low on the player. He’s not near his ceiling yet.
Sadly the player thinks he’s still a top 5 draft pick with endless upside – instead of the somewhat undeveloped and highly flawed NHLer everyone else sees him to be(Oilers fanatics notwithstanding).
I think Kane handled the baiting quite well:
https://www.tmz.com/2022/07/18/evander-kane-celebrates-20-mil-oilers-contract-shopping-spree-on-rodeo-dr/?adid=social-twa
Awesome. Agreed… Smart, Mature and Emotionally Stable.
What a Joy it is to have him signed for 4 more years!
Those TMZ reporters are so slimy. And the narrative remains that players don’t get bothered in American cities….
Friedman also positing that he thinks there will be some official tampering accusations stemming from this year’s free agency.
He doesn’t know if anything actionable will come from it but is there any doubt the Oilers will end up losing a material pick due to the Campbell signing?
Has the ever been a free agency without signings mere minutes after the window? It’s the whole basis of the “frenzy”.
I can see if they want to put out an official warning based on this summer, but to actually sanction those teams after allowing it for years would be ridiculous. Which means since it would hit the Oilers, will probably happen.
I betcha it’s Dubas being a little weasel because Holland embarrassed him last year when it came to the Hyman signing.
That’s effing rich coming from a league that facilitated the Gretzky trade, has referees that make decision that would be legally scrutinized in other sports and continually lets GMs weasel out of bad contracts. Oh, and goes arbitrarily makes decisions on retirements, etc, despite having hard and fast rules written down.
If Hyman wanted to call his good friend Campbell and sell him on coming to Edmonton, I don’t think that counts as tampering. Everyone and their dog knew what the rough parameters for a Campbell deal would look like and that Edmonton desperately needed to sign either him or Kuemper. Dubas never made an offer close to what Edmonton did – instead he decided to bet the house on two years of Murray.
The biggest take I got from last season is just how close the Oilers are once they get themselves a real goalie they can count on, plus a few upgrades beyond my feeble self to understand.
Leafs on the other hand get booted out of every 1st round since forever, are no where closer to the cup than Calgary Flames while waiting for their Hart trophy winner to bolt in 2 seasons…
Leading fans to say McDavid will be a Leaf once he’s free from his current Oilers contract.
For a moment I thought you were talking about the England Football management team.
With respect, I think you are reading a bit much in to it. For what its worth, listening to the 32 Thoughts Pod from Friday this morning and Friedman said “Smith is not playing this season”.
From accounts, Smith was really really banged up and we’d all be surprised if what he was dealing with ever came out. Friedman has mentioned that a few times now.
Stauffer suggesting a one-year deal for McLeod so that he has arb rights next season. That’s no surprise but Stauffer suggests in the $850K to $900K range and I think that’s an unreasonable suggestion and it will come in around $1.2MM.
McLeod isn’t a first-round selection so it may come in a little lower than expected.
Ya, I guess – $850K is paycut though (including his signing bonus for this past season). I mean, I know the player has no leverage and they are going to grind this player but I don’t think the org needs to go too far. I think the player has earned a raise of at least a few hundred grand and grinding him below that would probably not set a good base for future negotiations, right?
$1.2MM is about right
It could get chiseled to $1.0-1.1 if it’s 1yr
Holland needs every penny. Expect McLeod to be a little disappointed.
Micah McCurdy on finishing. Spoiler: Draisaitl all alone at the top.
https://hockeyviz.com/txt/xg6f/2122
And Puljujarvi is in the bottom five…
Balance!
All of McCurdy’s work lately paint Jesse in a poor light, but really matches the eye test … Jesse gets and creates O-zone chances but he is poor at both cashing them or setting up his team mates once in the kill zone. He really is an interesting outlier.
There have been a few more nuanced takes recently that have come to similar conclusions. Justin Bourne (former video coach in the Leafs organisation) here: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/making-sense-of-frustrating-play-drivers-and-jesse-puljujarvis-value/ and JFresh here: https://jfresh.substack.com/p/is-jesse-puljujarvi-the-next-nichushkin?sd=pf.
That’s three different analytically inclined sources looking into JP and finding the same thing: a player who is exceedingly good at ensuring that the puck is in the right end of the rink, but who is below average at both creating and finishing chances once he gets there.
That’s a difficult player to value.
As Micah McCurdy put’s it:
“Part of why Jesse Puljujärvi is so polarizing is that he’s a phenomenal forechecker but a poor finisher /and/ a poor setter. Vision with the puck so much weaker than his anticipation without it. I got the puck from you, again …. now what?”
with Tavares, Dubois, and BTkachuk.
So the ask is probably whatever Dubois signs for! -).
Does Sekera retiring affect the Oilers cap situation at all? I have no idea about these things.
If a player with retained salary retires (Lucic), the amount retained goes away.
In Sekera’s case (a regular buyout) I’m pretty sure we’re still on the hook for 1 more year.
I’m still looking for a definitive answer
It certainly helps Dallas as they still need to sign Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger.
I think Sekera was a UFA
Ah…yes he was.
No. Sekera is entitled to the money from his buyout regardless of his playing status.
The gift that keeps on giving.
But he was given that money years ago right? Or are the Oilers actually cutting these guys a cheque each year?
Immatterial. The cap hit is spread out over multiple years as per CBA.
A buyout is 2/3rds of the remaining payout spread out over twice the remaining duration of the contract, for the non-signing bonus part of the contract. (Unless one is younger than 25, then 1/3rd).
Assuming the Oilers retain Yamamoto and Jesse, this is how I would want the lines to look this season.
Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl
Hyman-RNH-Yams/JP
Foegele-McLeod-Yams/JP
Yams/JP signed to one year deals. Prove that you can create your own offence. Keep the one that gets it done.
Would rather see 97 and Drai split up during the season and only put together if we are in a slump or behind in a key game.
Would make more sense to me if I remember the details correctly, to do one yar for Jesse and two for Yammo. Both then have one year left as RFA at expiry and can be either moved, or extended buying some UFA years…
If 97 and 29 are together I’d prefer:
Drai – McDavid – Yamamoto
Kane – Nuge – Hyman
Foegele – McLeod – JP
Yamamoto is good at getting the puck back to 97 and 29, and 97 doesn’t need Kane as his shooter if he has 29 and vice-versa. Yamamoto can keep up with the high level skill plays in ways that other don’t. Kane doesn’t mind killing the play with a non-dangerous shot. And Hyman has a tendency to put his head down and drive the net, that’s great when there’s no better play, but when you’re on the ice with 97 and 29 there’s often a better play.
And Kane – Nuge – Hyman is a strong enough line that there’s still hope if line gets shut down. You’re giving up less with the simple plays of driving the net and/or shooting often with this line.
I like your 3rd line with JP more than with Yamamoto. Speed speed speed. No goals from more than 5 feet out, no assists than aren’t rebounds. Drive the puck to the dangerous areas.
As pointed out by a few of them, that is the lineup opposition coaches would like to see as well.
Bonus points for keeping Foggy in the top 9.
LT, I have to say, that opening night roster you laid out is 100% perfect. The play isn’t to trade Jesse Puljujarvi for cap space (or any other reason) but to trade Warren Foegele for the cap space.
Whether its via an agreed signing or an arb award, Jesse’s AAV won’t come in materially higher than Foegele and I think its inarguable that Jesse is the more valuable player today, next year and over the next 5, 7, 10 years, right?
We hear about the Oilers needing to bring in some size and some scoring in the 30-40 point range. Well, isn’t that Jesse Puljujarvi right now (and with higher upside then that point range)?
Even if Jesse is sloted in to 3RW for opening night at $3.2MM, they signed Foegele for 3LW at $2.75MM and Jesse is better today and with more upside.
There is no sane world where Jesse gets moved over Foegele unless the trade return is substantial, right?
LT’s lineup is perfect.
Completely agree. Downvoters are out to lunch on a moon orbiting Jupiter.
Foegele is simply not in the same ballpark as Puljujarvi with respect to upside and current production. The Foegele contract is not great — he played 4th line minutes in the playoffs.
What’s more is that Holloway could easily pass him this season. If you think Foegele’s value is low now, what’s it going to be after a season of more 4th line minutes?
Foegele must be moved, and if you still need space you deal Barrie. I’d deal both, personally.
completely agree!
Keep Barrie, he’s playing well, the guys like him, we don’t have a good replacement.
Jesse Puljujarvi the player that is a combination of skills is someone the team should keep and if that’s all he was the team would keep.
What people keep glossing over is the never-ending smoke signaling a fracture with Puljujarvi the human being. He’s ready to move on and the team is ready to move on. I wish this wasn’t the case but the play is to move on from him.
Oh, dear, like Brad Malone, if Greg McKegg, even with his NHL expereince, is anywhere near the Oilers’ opening night roster, then Holland has failed to build the forward depth and create a 4th line that can play real minutes and make an impact.
Malone and McKegg must be deep injury depth – like 15F/16F if the team is a true NHL contender, in my opinon.
We’ve talked about this before, but there are times when a coach gets a player who he can trust for the NHL team. Todd Nelson (Anton Lander) and Dallas Eakins (Will Acton) are two recent Oilers examples. I think, but am not certain, Malone might be that player for Woodcroft. We’ll see.
Yes, we’ve talked about it and I have acknowledged the possibility. At the same time, that does not mean that I have to agree with the scenario and I would presume I’m permitted to post my thoughts on the subject when it’s brought up, right?
Who is stopping you from posting your opinion? LT just told you in the most respectful manner possible that the coach likes Brad Malone and your response was unnecessarily defensive.
LT and I have had this conversation before and he has essentially discounted my opinion because the coach has a different opinion. I fully acknowledge the coach sees this situation differently than me.
Having a pro like Malone stay with the organization and help develop one young prospect after another is invaluable … and Woodcroft knows this. Malone’s worth to the organization (at the minor pro level) is not something that analytics can convey, and its not something an observer from afar can really appreciate … but these kind of contributions are what helps an organization to create a good environment for its young prospects on the farm.
These type of pros deserve a cookie each year … having Malone come up and join the Black Aces during the past playoff run is the just desserts. Giving him a few games next season to come up and play 5-6 minutes … if that keeps the dream alive for him when he goes back down to the farm, and helps him keep on trucking and be a positive influence for our young prospects … well, its a small price to pay.
Malone could probably go to Europe and make more money, and live in some nice places over there, but he chose to stay with the organization and persevere – DNB did a nice write up on him back in March.
I agree heartedly with the first paragraph. I’ve praised Malone as a very good AHL player and a fantastic captain and mentor to the younger prospect for years. I don’t discount the verbal that Yamamoto (among others) expressed re: Malone and his help.
I value this position so much that I think its imperative that Malone continue in the role – that’s where he’s most beneficial to the org.
I’m still not sure he needed to be transferred from an AHL deal to an NHL deal last season – his performance in the NHL after the signing was not an effective player. There is no cap on AHL deals and the Oilers have signed AHL contracts with large salaries (larger than the AHL portion of 2-way NHL deals).
I don’t think he “deserves a cookie each year” – Sure, I guess he can earn that but the multi-year gap in even having an NHL contract, let alone playing NHL games, combined with his performance (i.e. a defensive player that gets scored on) and his advanced age do not lead me to believe that he is anything more than a vast injury replacement depth player on a good team.
I’m not positive he could make more money in Europe than his $350K guaranteed min this coming year – maybe.
Sure, however, maybe you should be open to the possibility that Malone is a late bloomer and or the coach thinks his value on the team is a positive despite not having the skill to warrant a roster spot.
I am open to the possibility, however, of course, I also watch him play and don’t see him blooming in to an NHL roster player.
I do acknowledge the coach’s apparent thoughts on this player’s value – I just don’t agree. Of course Jay W. knows oodles more than me re: icing a winning NHL roster but, as we do every day in this community, we can provide opinions that dissent from the coach (i.e. playing Archie in the playoffs, lineup deployment, not moving Kulak up, running with Smith, etc., etc., etc.).
Surprised to see zero chatter so far about Micah Blake McCurdy’s “setting” thread:
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1549007755448668163
It contains a specific blurb about Jesse, and offers an interesting bridge between stats people and “seen em good” types.
Well worth the read. Thanks for posting this link.
The new Johan Larsson…
Juho Lammikko
26yo. 6’2″ 191 lbs
75gp. 7-8-15
320-290, 52.5% FOs
21-22 AAV: 750K
Speaks: Bison and English
This guy has wheels, put up points in the SEL, AND comes with patented Finnish gritensity. popped a little offensively last year, his third in the NHL (two half-years really).
Fancies aren’t great, but those are largely team stats and he played on a team that sucked ass. Since he’s toolsy, I’m sure some Manwood can bump his D game.
If we want to convince Pujo to stay, perhaps such a signing might help…
I get the concept. But I know a sales job when I see one.
Get your foot out of my door! 🙂
Fancies aren’t great….Indeed, they are terrible 🙂
I don’t care about the easy payment plan
If this was an info-mercial this would be the part where you say… “But Wait!….if you order today…”
He’s new and improved!
Ha!….And the free steak knives?
They’re in the mail!
I’m actually pretty serious. Not about the knives. But La Mikky Finn. Now understand, what I’m saying is I would submit this guy to the pro coaching staff for video analysis and see what they think.
Here’s why:
1) The Price is Right. Couldn’t be righter if Bob Barker personally spayed your pitbull for free. If he doesn’t work out he can be fully buried, adding organizational RHS depth.
2) He just finished his first full season in the NHL and in a whole new conference. I don’t expect his numbers to look like he’s a four-year 26 year old.. But he’s damn fast, still young, has NHL size, shoots right and wins more face-offs than he loses. The staff should watch some video and not rely on the fancies here. Assuming their fancies say the same as the public stats. Plus shitty team. But we need to be sure. So video we go.
3)The trick is to get these guys before they figure it out, before they pop. This is an extremely low risk bet that he’ll find his D game in the next season. Plus he’d have Manwood tutoring him. That’s huge.
4)The other trick is finding the guys who can score a little. He went 7-8-15 in 75 this past season. That’s pretty good for a raw 4th liner, and his SEL numbers indicate there might be a little more there.
5) He’s someone who can form a relationship with Pujo so he doesn’t feel like an outsider on the team. And someone who can translate when necessary.
6) He buys time to Phiulp or another target can appear. In fact he’s very similar to betting on Philp a year from now (assuming his year goes well). Someone cheap, fast, big and still learning a little.
7) The other options are old and slow and are likely to land in familiar circumstances… Stepan and Bozek. They’ll also cost more.
8) We’re all out of Mikkos.
Now before you turn the dial hear me out…
IF you act NOW, Lamikko can be YOURS for the low, low price of just four easy payments of $200k, plus you get the steak knives AND the dishwasher safe raw egg peeler. But there’s only one on the shelf… HURRY while supplies last.
So CALL NOW! Operators are standing by.
Nice
No one’s calling.
I knew I should have made the number toll free.
At 42 years of age, its a toss-up if Ryan Malone is a better option for the Oilers’ 4th line then Brad Malone…..
Happy to see an LT Roster Chart with JP on the 3rd line. $3.2m seems about right.
The process of arbitration involves the team submitting an offer, the player an ask, and then they each present their case to the arbitrator. There are limits on what statistical information can be used but the NHL-produced so-called advanced statistics are allowed.
Traditionally awards fall very close to the simple average of the ask and the offer.
The length of the contract received in arbitration is either one or two years, and the party who did not elect arbitration gets to choose it. One exception is that players in their final year as RFAs can only get one-year deals.
So assuming $3.2m is some kind of middle ground, Do the Oilers choose a 2 year term?
I think the Oilers have to choose the term before they hear what the arbitrator’s decision on AAV is.
i.e. Player opts for arbitration. Team opts for one or two years. Then it goes to the arbitrator.
I’d opt for two years, but before doing so tell Jesse and his agent that even though we don’t want to trade you, a two year term will make it easier to trade you.
And then I would work on trying to sign a two year deal to avoid arbitration.
This sounds right as well
No chance I’d opt for 2 years as opposed to one – taking him right to UFA status without buying any UFA years.
The Oilers don’t have the cap space to buy UFA years.
Once one is a contender, when an contract expires matters a whole lot less.
The Oilers need a two year deal with both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto to minimize the AAV for both over the next two seasons while they are cap crunched.
Two year deals also makes them easier to trade. As assets they become more liquid.
This sounds logical.
I love that lineup LT, but me suspects JP will be replaced with a cheaper RW. I’ve come to accept that this is how the D will look, and it’s really not bad.
does the signing of Engvall at $2.2 mill in Toronto help the case to keep Puljujarvi and Yamamoto AAv lower? seems like a similar player in stats an usage. Hope it helps get their AAV down below $2.5
I’m not sure Engvall was similar in usage – he was 100% bottom six, almost no time at all with any of the top 6 players on the Leafs.
His production and rates are actual much more impressive than Kailer and Jesse’s given quality of linemates – its unfortunate that an arbitrator is not permitted to use that information and can only look at direct point comparablse without the context.
I don’t think the Oilers should be too concerned with trading a player to get cap space. With an expected 13 players making 2M+ they only need one of them on LTIR to create the room for the rest of the roster as-is. If they really need room, some other team will have an injury in training camp and they can get space that way
Question for LT… your projected roster is short 13/14 Fs. Was this intentional?
Explained in final paragraph below the roster.
Ooops I missed that! I was so excited I skipped straight to the comments section…
Another thing from Friedman, the Canes were one of the teams very interested in Kulak. We don’t know what contract they were willing to offer but it’s heartening to see top teams with interest in Oiler players and the players still come back and without an overpay required.
The Oilers are a top team.
I posted this late last night on the other post. Wondering about any opinion on it:
Probably too late for a response so will repost tomorrow sometime. But with all the chatter about NYI on this blog and others, the trade I would like Holland to pursue would be:
Puljujarvi/Barrie for Beauvillier/Mayfield.
Pure hockey trade. The salary should almost match out (depending on when Lou forces JP to sign an “offer you can’t refuse”.
It puts the Oilers in much better balance, for a Cup run, with enough cash to re-up McLeod short term and maybe Yamo longer term.
Kane-McD-Yamo
Hyman-Drai-Beauvillier (can switch sides with Hyman)
Foegle- RNH- Ryan (had a fairly successful run prior to RNH injury)
Holloway- McLeod-Janmark (could switch Holloway with Foegle to play with 2 vets)
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Mayfield
Campbell
Skinner
I sort of want to see Broberg Barrie.
Imo more likely to see Foegele go to NYI for Martin or Clutterbuck. Not ideal but.
If LT’s lineup above is the team, it’s gonna be a fun season!
It should be the team. We will see how close the real team is to it.
What I dont understand is the apparent concern from the Oilers if Jesse gets an award in the $3M range if they want him to play the 3rd line when they signed Foegele for term at $2.75M for the third line and without the top 6 upside of Jesse nor the 2-way play.
OP, you’re leaving many pieces of the equation out here, are you not?
What am I leaving out?
The org traded a real asset for Foegele and then signed him at 3 X $2.75MM for the third line and now the verbal is the org has angst about paying Jesse around $3MM for the third line.
Before what you’ve left out, is there new verbal that I’m not aware of regarding Puljujarvi? Please fill me in if I’ve missed something in the last day or two that hasn’t been discussed here.
Assuming that’s not the case..
I’m sure the organization does have angst about paying Puljujarvi $3M because they do not have $3M to pay him, but it seems that you’re framing this as the org is happy to pay Foegele $2.75M but not happy to pay Puljujarvi $3M. I’m not aware of any verbal to that effect.
I’m not sure why LT posted the roster as he did today. It seems to have gotten peoples hopes up about what the team could look like, but it isn’t reality. As LT noted, his roster has only 12 forwards on it, and not enough cap to call someone up if there’s an injury. It’s not how the team is going to look come October.
If Barrie remains on the team, 2 of the forwards (Foegele, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto) have to go for cheaper pieces. In all likelihood it isn’t a Foegele or Puljujarvi decision, it’s a Foegele or Puljujarvi or Yamamoto decision, you can only pick one.
So, things you’re leaving out:
1) The cap situation, and that it isn’t really an either or decision on Foegele vs. Puljujari on the 3rd line.
2) The verbal I’m aware of says that Puljujarvi isn’t happy on the 3rd line and/or with the team. If that’s true it would clearly affect any decision about which players to keep and which ones to trade.
3) The contracts signed/to be signed by Foegele and Puljujarvi will happen in different years. The Oilers have signed Kane and Campbell to significant contracts since Foegele signed his deal last year. The cap conditions then for Foegele are very different than they are now for Puljujarvi. They currently do not have enough cap for Puljujarvi, and trading Foegele does not change that.
4) Has there been any indication (verbal) at all that the organization prefers the on ice contributions of Foegele over those of Puljujarvi? That they would choose Foegele over Puljujarvi if both players were willing to sign at a similar cap hits and willing to play similar roles? I’m not aware of it, but it seems that’s what you’re inferring based on a very small piece of the context that’s been reported about the situation.
You’re leaving out lots. Basically everything aside from the players cap hits, actually.
I’m simply pointing out that the org had no issue giving Foegele $2.75MM for term with the intent of playing on the 3rd line and there is verbal now that the org is concerned about an award for Jesse in the $3MM range given the circumstances may have him playing on the 3rd line.
For me, if their cap hits are anywhere close to each other, its fairly clear which player is more valuable, both today, next season and 5 years from now.
I agree that if their cap hits are similar, and both players are willing to play on the team in roles that includes 3rd line TOI, then for sure they should keep Puljujarvi. I strongly suspect the team agrees.
The statement on verbal you’re making seems to have a lot packed in there. The team is worried about the award for Puljujarvi being in the $3M range, AND that he might play 3rd line TOI.
I can absolutely see the org being worried about a $3M or more award, since as I said they don’t have the cap space to pay him that that. A bigger award would also make it harder to trade him, if he is in fact unhappy with team and/or role.
Them being concerned about having to pay him $3M as a top 9 RW for the Oilers, which would likely include 3rd line minutes, seems far less likely. Is there actually clear verbal about that part? Can you point me to it?
You listen to a lot more Oilers content than me, but from what I’ve seen and read it seems like you’re focused on an obscure piece of the verbal while ignoring the dominant message that’s been reported about the situation (that Puljujarvi isn’t happy with team and/or role, with that being the most obvious reason why they’re trying to trade him).
I believe the oilers envisioned Foegele 16-19 goals as well as hard to play against.
Considering his three previous seasons were 10G, 13G, 10G, that seems like an aggressive vision.
He scored 10G in 53G the previous year do the math over 82 games. Also taking into consideration it takes time to get up to speed once you been out of the line-up for any amount of time. ( That’s the excuse you keep using for J.P’s lack of scoring) Foegele was snakebit all year you would have to have watched all the games to have seen that.
The math is, per 82 games:
11, 16, 15, and then 12 this season.
He was 24-25 when he scored 10 Goals in 53 games he should be hitting his peak years now for the Hockey path he’s taken along with his style of play. Foegele is a blue collar Journeyman along the lines of a poor man’s Ethan Moreau. I could see Foegele services being desired in the NHL for another 6-7 years
Extrapolating what one does in 53 games to doing it over an 82 game season is dangerous (without even considering that playing 82 games is a skill in itself). Even extrapolating directly, it dosn’t get to 16 goals, the bottom mark you set. Nope, I didn’t see Foegele “snake-bit”, I saw him as not a very good finisher, someone we were advised of prior to the season.
I’ve never used the “get up to speed” excuse for Jesse – that’s made up.
Also, its wild to me that Yamamoto (and Jesse) have “stone hands” but Foegele was simply “snake-bitten” – seems narrative driven.
From what I recall you brought up long Covid are something to that effect with Jesse on more than a few occasions. So what Goalpost would you like to set on games played 50-60-70. Evander only scored 2 more Goals than Yamo did last year. Why isn’t Yamo worth 5 million?
Foegele has missed a total of 8 regular season games in 4 seasons and only 3 in the last 3 seasons. He played all 68 of Carolina’s games when the season was truncated in 2020, 53 of 56 in 2021 and all 82 for the Oilers. He apparently has that “skill”. He can’t be held responsible for the season being shortened.
one or both of Jesse and Barrie won`t be here come October, with opportunity on the wing and a opening for a large hairy assed 3RD !
This may be true (although I really don’t think they are thinking of moving Barrie at this point) but its fairly clear to me that the player out should be Foegele, and I think that Holland (X2) probably agree with this.
From the JFresh article linked to above:
“Ken Holland and co. are looking for ways to shed money….
From all indications, it would appear that one solution the organization has identified is trading former 4th overall pick Jesse Puljujärvi before July 13th. The restricted free agent has a low qualifying offer and likely won’t break the bank on his next deal, but his gangly skating stride and lack of offensive creativity or finishing touch landed him in the bottom six in the playoffs, and the coach and GM appear to have run out of patience with him.”
From the Hockey Writers:
Gone are the days of adding big, lumbering defenders whose goal is to intimidate and out-muscle forwards in front of the net. The new era values positioning and mobility to defend, but also to generate offense on transition. This is something a team which is building to play with speed up front, will benefit from.
LT, is there a reason that you are saying both Yamo and JP will go to arbitration? Most players that file typically don’t go to arbitration so I doubt Yamo does. JP might given his situation.
I read on the “other” site that only 1 player in the last 50 actually completed the proceedings and was awarded a contract, Tyler Bertuzzi. I’d say that bodes well that neither, and certainly not both, of our guys will actually go all the way with it.
Exactly – a large reward in arbitration that would force the Oilers to either trade or walk away from Jesse is the least likely outcome. Yamo really wants to be on the Oilers … I have zero expectation that he will actually go through with his arbitration hearing.
Jesse might … but the arbitration hearing can be tough on players self-confidence, and Jesse has already had some problems with that in his career. Doesn’t seem like it would be in his best interest to go through with it.
I believe there is almost zero chance of a “walk away” scenario as the threshold is over $4.5MM and, while Jesse may be $3M plus in an arb award, I don’t imagine it comes close to clearing the threshold.
Why do you think Kailer will be easier than Jesse? Kailer bargained extremely hard last year, refusing to take a two year deal.
It was not an easy negotation last summer with Yamamoto.
And few have noticed he scored 20 goals last season…easily a career high.
I would imagine his agent will be looking for a bridge contract that starts with a 4.
Goal scorers get paid.
Either Jesse are Yam are gone you need to keep rotating your cheap labour if your going to play them with Leon and Mcdavid. Serious question how many Goals would Malone get playing the gravey minutes Jesse and Yamo received last few years. I’ll wager more than 14 and he’ll be doing it for peanuts without bitching and complaining.
Not a chance he’d come close to that number and he’d make the line materially more ineffective, both offensively and defensively than either of Jesse or Yamamoto.
There’s been lots of late bloomers of the top of my head Maroon,Franzen, Burrows, Purcell, Moulson there’s tonnes of them Stan weir scored over 30 Goals twice in his late 20’s.
He can look for whatever he wants. He’s going to get a bridge deal but it will be $2.75-$3.0M, not $4M like you are desperately hoping for.
We know that Campbell went through a tough stretch last season in and around injury. Listening to Friedman from late last week and the man played goal with a broken rib for a number of games.
Mitigating Circumstances!
It’s weird everyone lists Janmark as a C and LW.
I was excited for another C but dig into it.
Hes taken 1 faceoff a game on average the last four years.
Yep, he’s exactly in the range of a winger who steps in when the Real centre gets tossed by the linesman.
He was brutal on faceoffs earlier in his career, which is likely part of the reaspn he got shifted.
He’s a winger not a center – I think that’s clear.
If he’s on the fourth line with Ryan, Ryan will be the center (even if the only right shot on the line).