Ken Holland’s strength as a general manager is finding good-to-great players in free agency. Beginning in Detroit, his signings of Sergei Fedorov (offer sheet threat from Carolina Hurricanes), Luc Robitaille (2001), Brett Hull (2001), Brian Rafalski (2007), Marian Hossa (2008), Zach Hyman (2021) and Evander Kane (2022) were exceptional. The gap in his later Detroit years was due to falling out of contention, but Holland has been successful in landing impact talent in free agency when he was a contender and money to spend. We’ve seen his good work through this summer.
On the other hand. Trades? That’s another issue. We’re about to see a trade, possibly involving Jesse Puljujarvi, that has a good chance to be a misstep in terms of future value. Can this be avoided? Yes, but it doesn’t seem likely.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: Skinner’s rise shows importance of homegrown goalies
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
WHAT WOULD BE AN ACCEPTABLE RETURN?
Understanding that something has to give and the rumours have Jesse Puljujarvi heading out of town (not sure Kailer Yamamoto has a longer or more successful career but we are here), what would be a good return?
Well, there’s a rumour out there that Edmonton is now looking for a draft pick. That’s not going to help. I mean, Holland could deal that pick at the deadline, but Puljujarvi could help Edmonton this season. Can you think of a valuable pick worth JP now? Second round in 2023? It’s a great draft by all reports. I don’t think that’s a good deal.
Maybe it would be easier to find a group of players who would fill a need, deliver similar value, and have lower AAV? I’ve looked, and the names (Scott Laughton, Trent Frederic, Mathieu Joseph) that are of interest to me don’t hold the same promise over this and the next five seasons. So, who would I trade Puljujarvi for?
A signed player, under control, making less than $2.5 million who could help now and has a significant future. What would that look like? Arthur Kaliyev (Los Angeles Kings), Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis Blues), Yegor Sharangovich (New Jersey) and Filip Chytil (New York Rangers). Not one of them will be traded this summer.
What does that mean? The Oilers are the aggressor here, and 100 cents on the dollar on this asset isn’t possible. This is going to be “Oilers deal Jesse Puljujarvi for a fourth-round selection and sign Evan Rodriguez two a two-year deal with a $2.2 million AAV” kind of thing. I expect Ken Holland already has it in place. Why is he waiting? After all the good news this summer, dropping that deal into the news cycle isn’t attractive. At all.
Is there an alternative? Yes. Consider the possibility that the fans are right on this one. Holland will know that Puljujarvi is worth more than a pick and this deal has a chance to look very bad in a couple of years. Unless Jay Woodcroft has given the thumbs down on JP, and I don’t believe that would be a thing, get this guy back. Go to arbitration, accept the award (the one year addition) and work on finding a way with this player on the Edmonton roster. He had an unusual season, injury, Covid, a difficult playoff and then a late shoulder injury.
Bring him back, let him push for the top line (I think he’ll take it) and for once be the team that doesn’t flush talent too early. This isn’t a “give Jesse one more chance” idea, but rather “good God man, there is your last chance to hold on to a quality piece that could help you win Stanley” idea. There’s a difference. This could be Ken Holland’s masterstroke, the moment of true inspiration, a realization that the benefits far outweigh the burden. Godspeed to all.
As luck would have it, Puljujarvi is one of my pivotal story lines in my book, out September 27. If you haven’t ordered yet, click on any of the links and they’ll take care of you!
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We hit the ground running with another great show today, TSN1260 10-2. I missed yesterday (24-hour bug kicked my ass) but am raring to go this morning. Topics we’ll hit include Matt Tkachuk and the Calgary Flames, the sneaking feeling that someone is going to lose a draft pick over summer tampering, plus MLB All-Star game memories, Hockey Canada and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!!
A few weeks back for laughs I suggested Oilers trade for Patrick Kane, with 50% of his salary retained; and now am reading about this same idea all over the internet.
While cannot be certain that it was started by me, its hilarious to imagine the firepower of McDavid/Draisaitl + 2 Kanes. Oilers would decimate the playoff opposition.
Why not dream big and go for double retention
This was out there as soon as the tire-fire sale in Chicago started.
Of course, there is no reasonable reality to it.
Maybe if the Oilers weren’t in LTIR this year and could accrue some cap space through the year and double retention took place they could think about it at the deadline….
Patrick Kane coming to the Oilers is like Bryan Trottier joining the Penguins prior to their first cup.
Nothing stopping Kane from getting traded to the Oilers later in the season. Dare to dream.
Well, nothing except for assets out, cap space and the American Kane’s agreement….
Kane can go to the Oilers and contend for a cup as addition number ONE and you discount it?
I have plenty of miserable family members to piss on my cornflakes, thank you.
Kane is no fool. He gets away from the failing Hawks and gets to play for a free Cup. Next season, like the other Kane he is a UFA. Similar to Marian Hossa who once joined the Blackhawks.
Why wouldn’t he go to Colorado instead?
Much more likely to win a cup there.
I hear Calgary has lots of cap space..
LOL
Well, since this is an Oilers blog…
Predictable and lazy trolling. I give this a trolling grade of D
I only discount it due to it not being realistic….
Obviously you do have a point. However this is July, and in July even bad NHL teams like Vancouver can imagine rising up in the standings.
Or totally flawed teams like Toronto Maple Leafs.
Add Calgary Flames to this, I can’t remember what’s happening to them.
Come on OP, if there were double retention he’d cost less than Jesse.
(but agree it’s highly unlikely to happen)
CBJ is having CAP problems signing Laine. They only have 2.3 left and will have to do something to create space
“It’s happening,” Francis told Stauffer when he asked about the possibility of Tkachuk following Gaudreau out of town. It’s over. They both are gone. I’ve told anyone who will listen these guys are both going to bolt. It’s not because they don’t like the organization. It’s not because they hate Calgary.
It’s because there are greener pastures out there, boys.
“I love my city. I know you guys love your city. I love my country, but at the end of the day, there are greener pastures with better weather, better tax situations, closer to home. No ridiculous border in the way of family visits. There are a lot of reasons why these two guys, both happen to be American, there’s the common thread. No doubt in my mind Matthew Tkachuk has played his last game as a Flame. As a matter of fact, I’d be pretty surprised if this wasn’t wrapped up within the week
When you are worth 10’s of millions dollars at such a young age why would stay in a country where your family can’t visit you. I don’t blame these players for bolting especially Johnny with a baby on the way.
Who’s family can’t visit?
Apparently Gaudreau’s father or parents have not come to Canada in over 2 seasons. If they are not vaccinated, which I do not know if that is the case, it can even now still be very difficult to travel here from the states for non-citizens or non-residents.
I’m going to New York next month. The feds have just resumed random Covid testing for international travelers returning home. And lord help you if you forget to load the ArriveCan app.
Its random testing, as you note, so chances are its a non-factor.
The ArriveCan app is very streamlined these days, in particular if you’ve already used it so your vaccination info is in there. Don’t need to upload any tests or anything – took me not longer than 60 seconds to do it for the wife and I last week.
I wouldn’t book the trip if I knew what I know now. I have an important meeting the day after I arrive home. Likely won’t be an issue – unless it is.
Ah, right, fair enough – I forget about considering the “unvaccinated” – I’ll be going for shot 4 this week or next!
I mean, if you let this affect your decision making, then that would mean that your elderly parents were too stupid to weigh risks and benefits, and you are too stupid to realize that we are emerging from a very unique situation, a global pandemic, the likes of which anyone has just experienced in a century.
I would posit that Matthew and Johhny wanting to play in a city where there are Krispy Kreme donuts is as likely as your theory, and you have no evidence to prove otherwise
Alberta also had the least restrictions of many provinces and states in North America at various points throughout the pandemic (and also the dubious distinction of some of the highest case rates thereafter), if we’re being honest
Every Canadian province had amongst the most restrictive measures in the world. And case rates had little to do with restrictions. Compare California and Florida – very similar rates. Compare Sweden to the rest of the world. Case rates were more a function of geography and population density.
I’m stunned, with all that we know now, people are still demonizing others whose decision making differs from theirs.
With this type of reasoning, Mathews will be gone too
I thought Toronto was New York State?
They only want to be.
I think Jesse has enough upside to fill some shoes in he future. 97 and 29 aren’t forever.
Gully’s spot on Oilers Now has been mentioned a few times in this thread and, as always with Gully, I think its a great listen.
Firstly, for anyone that thinks the PP is simply the best because of Connor and Leon and there isn’t any real structure or focussed adjustments that get made, I’d encourage a listen.
One other point that stood out to me was when Bob asked if there has been any consideration to having both Bouch and Barrie out there at the same time (obviously with Bouch on the left half-boards for the one-time shot). Gully acknowledged it is something they have discussed and very well could use here and there but it would be sporadic – Gully knows and wants to ensure that the PP runs through McDavid and Drai and don’t want the focus to be on the “Ovie spot” given they don’t have Ovie (my words paraphrasing his).
With that said, there has been a shift in various PK structures to take away what the Oilers do and they continue to work on adapting, etc. and that is a focus of the summer.
Also, when asked about Gaudreau, Gully, as his former coach, was quite express that he was not surprised that he left.
It was interesting what he had to say about the PK adjustments that Colorado made against our PP. Going passive and allowing shots from the point. I think that is the best way to defend our PP too.
Here is a theory:
Johnny and Tkachuk are scared of playing in the same division as Connor and Leon.
I believe the turtle is more afraid of Kane.
Shell-shocked
Here’s another theory…Darryl Sutter is still the coach of the Flames.
As Tkachuk apparently wants to go the St Louis, I have a feeling Calgary will trade him for Tarasenko who wants to get out of St. Louis. The only issue may be Tarasenko not wanting to come to Calgary. If this trade does happen, and Flames are able to add Kadri, they will again be a good team.
24 and 28 year olds to 30 and 31. Tarasenko with 1 year, Kadri would be a massive overpay for his first ppg season. I hope they do it. Get worse and older.
Kadri and Tarasenko will not make them still a good team. It’s a bandaid on a tire fire.
Rumours are a 1st round pick, Jordan Kyrou and Tarasenko for one year to balance the cap.
Rumours? What rumours? Out of St Louis? Calgary?
Seems that St Loo holds the hammer in these negotiations. Why would they offer Kyrou and a first for Tkachuk?
I heard 3 first rounders Neighbour, Kyrou Brabashev,Tarasenko, payranko for Tkachuk and Monahan. Brad is holding out for another 1st rounder
I heard St. Louis’ management laughing their asses off at these supposed offers. Picks and B level prospects are all the Flames will get, plus Tarasenko for cap purposes. Whether Tarasenko will waive to go to Calgary … Calgary may need to forward him on to another destination to complete a deal.
The fan base in Calgary is going to be disappointed with the return for Tkachuk especially with not much in the pipeline. Also playing in a rink that dates back to the Cold War Era with no plans for a new one. This franchise deserves everything that’s being flung at them, payback for stealing another Cities franchise (Alanta)
It’s beautiful to watch.
LMAO
I doubt that 1) they will go to Calgary 2) Calgary will be better.
Well it’s Closing time another day is done
Despite the provocation, Randle pulls it off with no trace of confrontation.
Peace Out. See youse all tommorra 🙂
I am not sure I believe a word out of Jesse’s manager’s mouth. It is negotiations, everyone lies is rule 1,2, and 3
The team has all the controls
a $3M ish Jesse is much better than a $2.75M Foegele.
Is there a team that fits Jesse better than Edmonton, seriously he will play on a line with 97, 29 or 93 +60% of the time.
100%.
Is there another market where ravenous fans will enthusiastically scream “Bison King” so loud that it drowns out the post-game interview? I doubt it.
that was such an awesome moment, and JP’s heart fingers to the fans.
Glen Gulutzan on the other station today was asked:
“What did you change on the PP when you arrived”
He answered modestly that “we” targeted a right shot dman who could distribute the puck.
To paraphrase, he said something like “we wanted a guy who could create flow, puck movement, to open things up for our elite scorers.”
I don’t think Tyson Barrie is going anywhere, anytime soon.
If only the Oilers had another right-shot dman who can distribute the puck and open things up for the elite scorers, if only.
So far Bouchard has yet to master the distribute part. That’s why the first unit operates at almost twice the efficiency scoring almost double the goals per 60 with Tyson on it at 11.5 vs. 5.6. Bouchard has a great shot, and he can make a very good pass, but he needs to learn to use the art of the misdirection, with fake shots and passes. Evan will get there, but Barrie is very good at this. Barrie is also very good at keeping the puck in. Obviously, Bouchard would get there quicker if Barrie wasn’t there, but as long as he is there, right now Barrie is the better PP QB.
And for all the complaints about Barrie’s 5 on 5 play, he has been above 50% goal share in 7 of his 9 full seasons, including the 4 of the last 5 and that one down year in those 5 was in Toronto where he was 49%.
I read that and it makes me wonder if he has a clue about how the PPs better than the Oilers do it without CMD and Leon
ughhh. The oilers PP scores because of the crazy talent. It could be better IMO. It’s sooo predictable and it shouldn’t be. It should be completely demoralizing to the opponent and look like chaos to the bad guys
Huh? This season, only the Blues and Leafs had better PPs. Both teams are very talented. The season before the Oil were #1.
I think their PP is pretty demoralizing to the opponents.
21-22: Oil PP #3
20-21: Oil PP #1
19-20: Oil PP #1
18-19: Oil PP #9
I think Gully is pretty good at coaching the PP.
The PP let them down numerous times in the playoffs when they needed a goal, even in OT right?
To me it’s different when you have CMD Leon and Nuge. I think we can all agree the MO has been set up Leon. Connor gets frustrated once in a while and tries to make something happen. I think when opponents try to shut down something there should be an opposite ploy and I don’t see that happening in a tactical or consistent way
Yes it’s very good, but it should be the best, by a bit, given the horses. Just my thoughts
I agree with the sentiment that the Oilers’ PP should be the best.
But look at the numbers, over the past four seasons it literally has been the best.
As far as the playoffs go, shit happens. Leon was injured and he missed many chances he would normally cash. Opposing teams are more desperate.
Because despite his significant injury that affected his release back and back they went to him and he couldn’t do it
To me use him as a decoy bcs that’s what they expect and hit elsewhere
The PP was less effective in playoffs because the predictable cross ice feeds to Leon were not being cashed, through no fault of Leon’s. GG could have taken Leon off or used him in different way but it was not working. Leon’s one timers are usually like Ovi’s, you know they are coming but you can’t do a thing to stop them.
I would suggest you listen to Gully on Oilers Now from today – he expressly talked about certain structural changes that were made on the PP in the playoffs – it a highly informative spot.
I heard most of it. But my comment was referring to cross ice passes to Draisaitl for one timers, which he was not able to get off with the same speed or power. In the Calgary series in particular they tried it multiple times but it wasn’t working, which gave Calgary an advantage because they were keenly aware that the biggest threat/high volume shooter was ailing. The comment was not meant as an attack on the coaching, more an explanation as to why the PP could have been even better in the playoffs if it’s biggest weapon was in good health. I’m glad that he is looking to adapt to the “downhill” PK adaptations
Again, I would encourage you to listen to Gully’s spot on Oilers Now from today. I would suggest that your analysis of what isn’t happening is off and, I would suggest that the PP is the best and Gully is a big part of that (given it was last when he arrived and then, 9th, 1st, 1st, 3rd) – last included 97/29 on it, albeit, younger.
Just wondering, do you think Leon’s ankle had anything to do with those challenges?
I remember during the playoffs one of the ex players on the panel said that the Oiler PP was not predictable, that it was like pond hockey and that’s what made it so good??
Cassie or Kelly 🙂
Paul Bissonette
Gully said today that they do certain things to “create road hockey scenarios” – there may be some “pond hockey” attributes but they are part of an overall structure and created with intent.
I would encourage you to listen to Gully on with Stauff today (different than Gregor’s piece) – I would posit that its much more nuanced than just McDavid and Drai.
Also, where are these PPs that are better?
When Gully showed up, the Oilers had the worst PP in the league (with Connor and Leon) and have subsequently gone:
9th
1st
1st
3rd
All the speculative rosters I’ve seen include 12 forwards and 6 defensemen.
What if WoodMan decided to run 11-7 out of the starting gate next season?
I suspect ManWood will flip flop between 11-7 and 12-6 as he did last season. It worked well.
I’m sure it will be used at times through the season but, for me, it should be limited. The “finding extra minutes for Drai/McDavid” mantra we here is the opposite of what I think should be done over the course of an 82-game grind and 2-month playoff run.
A key is having a fourth line that can play 10 5 on 5 minutes per game and make a positive impact on many nights.
Either way, that is a mighty fine rooster.
https://www.pinterest.ca/pin/323837029435280248/
“Midnight at a Liquor Store in Texas”
I had a cousin who was a high level welder (welded at very high heights) who would spend 6 months every year working in Texas.
I asked what was his favorite thing about the state,
He said to me, “My favorite thing is that I can walk down the middle of Jasper Ave, with a beer in one hand and gun in the other”
He wasn’t kidding.
He told me he once shot a man in Reno…..just to watch him die….
he was kidding…..
Only if he was white! Your gullibility is palpable! Love the state! Served with a number of fine young men from Texas!
You may be able to walk around with an open liquor container some places but not these municipalities in Texas:
Plus, it is illegal to even have a container of alcohol in your vehicle, open or not. It has to be in the trunk or behind the last row of seats.
I go to Texas quite a bit, the laws are not as open as some think!
What’s the speed limit there? Many people have asked me over the years, but having never been to Texas, I don’t know how to respond. Thanks!
I haven’t driven there since the “Ro, but it was pretty standard until 2018 – 75 for most freeways and two lane highways, 65 for single lane highways. In 2018 they got smart and started posting 85mph speed limits on 2 lane toll roads in rural areas where there wasn’t much happening.. It was so successful, they opened up a lot more remote 2 lane roads to 85 (toll or not), and seem to have increased the speed on the one lane backroad and highways to 75 (i never got to confirm this myself). Urban speed limits were mostly 55 though, which is faster than most places I travelled.
So the short answer is up to 85 depending on the road.
For some reason though, my vehicle always slowed to zero every time I tried to pass a Buc-ee’s.
No big deal but,
We have formed a habit of creating a narrative around “The Player vs the Organization”
The player vs the org, the org vs the player, …….
Imo we don’t put enough emphasis on the player agents.
Someone should write a book: “The Influence of the Agent”….
The promo would start….”Hot off the heels of his blockbuster best seller, that described life behind the scenes at a northern outpost”……
The player has the final say! What you say is like you blaming a lawyer in a criminal case. The agent is the employee! It is however good practice for the team to know who the young man’s agent is prior to drafting him!
There appears to be two free agencies now. This appears to have been created by recent economics. Ie a lack of inflation in the cap system.
There’s the frenzy we all know and love. And then there’s all the RFAs set free because their contract expectations can’t meet the salary structure of the teams that hold their rights. We have seen that affect almost every competitive team this off-season, including ours.
I don’t know if this prepetuates once the cap inflator is back in place. I suspect not, but learned long ago about the danger of long term economic predictons about specific mechanisms.
I was about to post the same thought with the following question:
What are the future ramifications of this ^ new wrinkle to free agency?
Will it be a regular occurrence for years to come, and more importantly will it change how General Managers deal with pending RFA’s? If so, how?
.JP will play hockey and be happy come September
The only question is, “Where, Randle?”
😉
“Where Randle at?”
Don’t know, don’t care; I only deal with the obvious.
“A signed player, under control, making less than $2.5 million who could help now and has a significant future. What would that look like? ”
Answer:
All you have to do is convince JP’s Agent.
This could be Markus Lehto’s masterstroke, the moment of true inspiration, a realization that the benefits far outweigh the burden.
McDavid, Draisaitl, and Kane all took a little less so that we could build a contender.
JP?
Drai did not take less.
Trade him to his least favourite location or let him rot!
So what you’re saying is JP can’t think for himself?
Is his agent his mother? Asking for a friend!
Picture needs more tongue in nose.
Hallelujah Brother!
#MoreCowBell
#MoreBisonKingSaltLick.
Dude could clean his visor without a towel. (does that score any points in arbitration?)
The “making under $2.5MM” doesn’t seem to ring true……. he’d assuredly get more via an arbitrator award – he could accept less in standard negotiations but its not looking like that will happen – we can hope.
“As luck would have it, Puljujarvi is one of my pivotal story lines in my book”
I was going to say , and wish I had said this before now LT; You like a good player; You LOVE a good story.
JP is a great story. Will be an even greater story if Ken Holland can pull a rabbit out of his hat…… twice.
I think the Oilers Management and players see everything we (LT) sees in JP. They can read.
Yeah, I don’t think there’s any doubt in the Oilers organization that JP is a good young player. Why this seems to be in dispute on the interwebs is surprising. But some puindits are framing it down these lines and readers take the bait. If JP is traded, it is for reasons other than his playing ability and future potential.
I.e., the salary cap.
There’s enough cap to get a deal done. And plenty of indications around the league that players have to consider the flat cap in their demands. If JP refuses to do the same, then there’s a reason for a trade that is other than his ability to play the hockey
Yes, exactly this. There needs to be a mutual understanding of the salary cap and how JP will fit within the flat cap.
I’m really hoping everything we have heard from both sides is simply posturing and “negotiation.” If it is, I’m confident a deal will get done and we will see the player don Oiler silk once again. But there’s so much smoke out there, it’s hard to believe it is just coming from a fog machine.
Yes, Jesse in normal contract negotiations, would probably need to heed this, however, an arbitrator is expressly prohibited from taking in to account the cap situation of the league or a specific team.
How often do arbitrations actually take place? Not very often.
The mostly likely outcome is that Jesse signs a contract before the hearing date. So the cap will likely be a consideration. Especially if Jesse wants to be traded.
Only one in the last couple of years has not been settled so, yes, generally, I would agree, however, I do think of this one as a bit unique given all the history.
I also don’t think that Jesse “wants to get traded” – I’m not saying he wouldn’t be fine with a fresh start somewhere but the accounts are that he’s just fine with the team and org, generally.
The new AGM and director of pro scouting surely does and has spoken glowingly of Puljujarvi publicly a few times recently.
Put Yamo in trade play with JP. Take the best deal of the two, sign the other. Bob’s your uncle.
I feel like people are just tired of reading about a Puljujarvi trade and discontent on both sides. Holland seems content to make it look like he’s working hard on it while retaining the player for a little cap as possible. Last I heard Jesse hadn’t asked for a trade.
His last contact was a ridiculous value deal and he was not traded when teams still had the cap to deal with the uncertainty of arbitration.
Eric Francis expects a Tkachuk trade to be completed within a week.
Flames are done….
I’ll admit at the beginning of last year I thought the Flames would finish near the bottom. Partly because they had a defense like Gudbranson (or as Flames fans called him, Badbranson) but also because I thought the players would get sick of Sutter and tune him out throughout the year.
Obviously the Flames went on to the division and I look dumb BUT! I also think the Flames were a bit fortunate in the sense that they had quite a few players who all turned in career years (because of Sutter? Or were they just gelling as a team and riding the confidence high? Or was it just a one off career year for players like Tkachuk, Gudbranson, Gaudreau, etc. where they all happened to align? Or a bit of all of the above?)
With that being said, I also think the players just took a little longer to tune out Sutter than I anticipated.
For example, I think it was game 3 or 4 of the playoff series against the Oilers where Sutter came out and said you can’t stop guys like McDavid and you can only play your game and hope it is better than McDavid’s (or something to that effect).
And then after Sutter’s interview, Tkachuk came out talking about how they had to find a way to “stop those guys” in reference to McDavid and Draisaitl. Which I found interesting because it was the playoffs and their team was down in the series. You would think the Flames players and their coach would all be on the same page, drinking the same koolaid and regurgitating the same mantra but no, there was a difference in mindset between coach and the 2nd best player on the team on how to beat the Oilers. Maybe I am reading too much into it, or maybe it was a sign that Sutter was losing the room. I’m sure Flames fans will agree that in the series against the Oilers they looked awful and they were not following Sutter’s system. And even though Calgary beat Dallas, Calgary made Dallas look like they were a cup contender based on how much they struggled.
Anyway, I think the Flames losing Tkachuk and Gaudreau imo is catastrophic for them and Treliving hasn’t demonstrated the ability to right the ship. Calgary fans have been calling for him to be fired for years now and are calling for him to be fired even after winning the division. We can only hope that ownership disagrees with Flames fans.
I know some feel Calgary still has a decent team (do they though?) But things will only get worse from here. Calgary made zero significant moves in free agency to improve their team and the FA cupboards are bare. Players like Coleman, Tanev and Markstrom were new additions who came in knowing they would play with Tkachuk and Gaudreau and I wouldn’t be surprised if they start heading for the exit. The perception of Calgary as a winning team will change and free agents will probably start wanting a premium to play there.
Replacing 2 100 point players is a near impossible task, especially when you lose one of them for absolutely nothing in return.
So yes, this is my long winded way of saying I too think the Flames are done (for real this time).
Darryl Sutter crystalized for me the importance of fitting a system to the roster and vice versa.
“Replacing 2 100 point players is a near impossible task, especially when you lose one of them for absolutely nothing in return.”
This is mostly accurate, but it’s worth considering additional cap space as a valuable asset, assuming you use it well when it’s presented to you. Losing these two players hurts Calgary, but should also present some opportunities for cap distressed teams to offload contracts. It’s dire for Calgary, but not insurmountable.
This is true, but is Treliving savvy enough to take advantage of his additional cap space? Many people felt the Lucic contract was untradeable, and Treliving happily stepped up to the plate to take a buyout proof contract from their divisional rival.
Additional cap space is big but, of course, we are well in to free agency and there aren’t many to spend that cap space on – up front its Kadri (and it doesn’t seem like he’s interested in the flames).
Of course, the flames could just “take the year off and re-set” which is a somewhat laughable suggestion but, even if it was true, the exodus of two star players likely does not shine the team/org in a bright light vis-a-vis future free agent signings, right?
Cap only has valuable when there is product available! Cap can’t play hockey! Not saying cap doesn’t have value but saying the value it holds is dependant on who is available and what cap availability is for other teams
Are you suggesting that they could “weaponize” their cap space?
Calgary had many players who had career years last year in the season that I call the warmup. This was largely due to Sutter. They also were favored by the Covid Shutdown and no signifcant injuries. In the playoffs, the true colors showed. Struggled immensely against a Dallas team far from a contender. The Oilers exposed the rest. Sutter was given three years to come back and coach. Is he really motivated or just padding the bank account? Treliving traded away their future for average players. It’s a tire fire……lol
Smart move.
Who knows, maybe they can make a hockey trade. Otherwise a boatload of futures.
Chicago’s going to have some company this season at the bottom of the standings.
I think Calgary will be ok this season. They have good D and a good goalie. That goes a long way.
If it is based on one year of Tkachuk, I don’t see him returning a King’s Ransom.They would (obviously) do better in a sign and trade, if they can swing it.
Agreed. Signing Tkachuk is critical.
Not at his cap hit! He’s a good player but not one you build a team around!
Vitek Vanacek signs for $3.4M x 3
This for a guy who stopped pucks at barely above Koskinen’s level the past two seasons. Now he is only 26, so some improvement is likely, but my point being that it’s hard to complain about paying a proven starter $5M when goalies the next tier down are only saving you a mil and a half.
From the beginning of the season until December 18, when Jesse entered Covid protocol (and, subsequently, dealt with some lingering effects, then missed 6 weeks with an LBI and returned from injury lingering that hampered his skating):
Games: 28
5/5 points: 14 (3rd on team)
5/5 P/60: 2.08 (3rd on team)
5/5 GF%: 57.89 (1st on team)
5/5 xGF%: 59.12 (1st on team)
All Situation points: 23 (4th on team)
28 games of being a legit first line, two way winger.
People who don’t see the potential of this guy, and moreover want to keep Foegele/Barrie over him, I think their memories are short.
I struggle to see how dealing a signed JP on a good cap hit for a 2nd registers as a good hockey move.
A 1/10 shot (if that) at getting a guy who probably won’t be as good as JP. Hmmm.
As you pointed out, both old time coaches, fans and numbers guys love JP.
There must be something going on behind the scenes here if he is moved.
This makes no sense. Young and big and Fast.
Woody does not have confidence in him nor does the core.
Where have you heard that Woody doesn’t trust Pulju?
Has he come out or spoken saying he wants him back?
It’s a dumb move and to boot you have to move Hyman over to the other wing. All this could all have been avoided.
By… ?
by signing him well before now
So like a long term deal back in the fall?
Every effort should be made to sign JP at a cap hit that is fair for both sides! If there is a personality conflict it is in the teams best interest to get as close to a win for both sides. If is an arrogant agent my previous holds!
Apparently people forget in that same time they wanted Yamo traded and JP signed immediately long term. Now Yamo is the chosen one….No different than your average politician…lol
Sample size alert!
and the second half of the season numbers are also “sample size alert”, right?
Seems there were (and are) a few objective factors that could provide for the delta between the two sample sizes.
Agree with all of what LT said regarding JP.
Another reason is that, with a McDavid – Kane pairing, the third guy on that line will have to be adept defensively. Who better fits that profile than JP?
Tipp was enamoured with JP earlier in the season and, when he dropped him to the third line, said that JP was a player and could drive a line himself.
It isn’t just stats people who like JP; the old timey coach liked him plenty.
The “difficult decision” to be made here isn’t so difficult at all. Foegele and Barrie are expendable. Foegele is replacement level. Barrie’s boots are already slowing and his PP time will diminish.
Both guys are at high risk for seeing their value drop further. Move them proactively.
The problem is Woody and the Core don’t. Now they are forced to deal him for peanuts.
I haven’t heard anything about Woodcroft not liking JP. I think his end of season press conference comments regarding context and injury were measured and fair.
As for the core, let’s see how stubborn they are. Doubt 97 had issues with JP through the first third of the season. Draisaitl praised JP early on for sticking with it and developing. 97 has acknowledged in pressers before that JP turns over lots of pucks.
I don’t see this being some sort of irrevocable rupture. Good players want to play with good players; JP is one and I am confident he will win those guys over.
I am pretty sure if they wanted him back(all included) there would not be a problem right now.
On the other hand. Trades? That’s another issue. We’re about to see a trade, possibly involving Jesse Puljujarvi, that has a good chance to be a misstep in terms of future value. Can this be avoided? Yes, but it doesn’t seem likely.
i don’t disagree with the above. We are likely to see a trade of Jesse and it’s likely for far less than value and a mis-step.
Of course, for me, the better plan forward is is obvious – whether a contract agreement happens or an arbitration award is issued, it’s likely not to be higher than $3M to $3.5M, upper ceiling. For me, Jesse at that price is much more valuable and value for money than Foegele at $2.75M and the play is clearly to keep Jesse and move on from Foegele.
Can Foegele be moved for a nominal return? Maybe but even if he can’t, the sweetener would not be a large asset.
Here is hoping Holland sees it this way, maybe with the help of his new AGM and director of pro scouting who values what Jesse brings and realizes his value is higher than his second half box-cars.
Thanks for making sense:)
Did you want to show us a roster that has Puljujarvi (at $3-$3.5M) and Yamamoto on it, has enough bodies, and fits under the cap?
With subtracting Foegele and his $2.75MM I believe that can be done.
Include Benson over Shore, as an example of saving a few hundred grand.
Sure. Trade Foegele and trade Barrie.
Nurse is perfectly adequate as a secondary option to Bouchard on the power play.
Holloway may be better than Foegele right now, plus you have Bourgeault/Savioe/Petrov chomping at the bit and Hyman who plays both wings.
Foegele is completely redundant and there’s no upside to keeping him.
Yes, you can trade Foegele and Barrie to keep Puljujarvi (just Barrie could be enough if his replacement is cheap enough).
I wouldn’t go there if Puljujarvi is a reluctant Oiler, but if he’s happy to stay and play wherever the coach wants to put him, then there’s an argument for it.
(though I don’t agree Foegele is completely redundant and without upside).
I tried it out on capfriendly. Yep, you can do it if you get both Jesse and Kailer at 3M each, and McLeod at 1M. And Fogel is traded for a pick. Only 20 players on the roster with about $500K in cap room. With that you could even go 3.5 for Jesse.
Holland will not go into the season within $500,000 of the cap and only 20 on the roster.
That’s why I included ‘enough bodies’ in my post.
As Redbird says Holland will not (nor should he) start the season with the minimum number of skaters on the roster and not enough cap space to call someone up if there’s an injury.
It isn’t reasonable to expect that.
Then you would have to downgrade Barrie to a less expensive 3rd pair d man.
That being said, many teams do go into the season with 20 rather then 21 players.
Sorry, I meant 20 skaters. With the 2 goalies as well. So 22 total players.
OK, 22 on the roster (20 skaters) is plausible. And it’s true that keeping all 3 RFAs at your numbers is possible (with only Foegele out) if they don’t add anyone else to the roster for more than $1M.
Were Puljujarvi and Yamamoto to cost under $3M, the cap side of things gets easier and easier the further under $3M they are, so let’s hope that’s the outcome in the end.
LT, is Jesse the boy with the gun?
Puljujarvi’s injury history is also reducing his trade value.
Hip injuries and hockey players – not good.
He had surgery on his hips a few years ago and there are no accounts of any subsequent issues with them. His LBI this season was not his hips (from the insiders).
It also wasn’t really “an injury” with his hips but I think something he was born with that got fixed – can’t remember exactly what.
still hip issues and surgeries would illicit a yellow flag for some/many
Maybe but I don’t think that hop surgery to fix an issue a few years ago, with no subsequent issues related thereto, is a factor.
Yesterday I posted on the Flames transactions but if I zoom out and look with less detail their franchise building it would look something like this:
Gaudreau 28 – out
Pelletier 21 – in
Monahan 27 – out
Ruzicka 23 – in
Richardson/Carpenter – out
Rooney 29 – in
Gudbranson 30 – out
Meloche 25 – in
They got worse and younger choosing to (thus far) replace from within sans Rooney and Meloche (though Valimaki may have something to say this year).
Just can’t be losing good players at 28.
losing Monahan so young is similar to us losing Klefbom.
Don’t forget Tkachuk out the door. Anytime now…
I’d rather they kept their cancer and continued to overpay him while they’re at it.
They could lose 3 pieces of their core in under a year: Gaudreau, Monahan and Tkachuk.
Devastating.
By the way, all this anger at Johnny in Calgary but Treliving hard balled that core player last contract to what many thought was an undervalued AAV. There may have been some resentment there.
also Treliving was the one who negotiated that contract that left a core player a ufa at 28.
poor franchise stewardship imo
3 year entry
6 year
bye bye
If Brad was the G.M in Edmonton he would be rightfully tarred and feathered out of town. Different fan bases for sure Oiler faithfull expects Cups Flames faithful only care about beating Edmonton.
Monahan will be at camp and Klef will never play pro again it appears. I’m not sure what your criteria are, but these situations don’t look equivalent.
Is he?! I heard he was done. Maybe it’s changed.
The Monahan situation is worse because he isn’t going on LTIR. So instead of cap space you have a 4th liner center making $6 million.
Is he a 4C when healthy?
A healthy Monahan is not a 4th line centre.
He started on the 1st line last season but his minutes were reduced as his injury worsened.
A healthy Monahan is also not a 1st line center. He peaked in 18-19 which is a decent amount of years and injuries ago.
Last 3 seasons hes been missing more time and scoring at a lower pace. Trending the wrong direction.
19-20: 0.69 PPG
20-21: 0.56 PPG
21-22: 0.4 PPG
Despite being on a team with a “Vezina” level goalie, a supposedly great defense, and one of the “best lines in hockey” to take the best defenders attention Monahan was -15 on a team that was +58 at even strength.
“Monahan’s production had slipped, particularly during the second half of the season and he was bumped down the lineup after starting the 2021-22 campaign as the team’s first-line centre to the fourth-line centre. He was also taken off the first powerplay unit, which was a spot he’d had since he arrived on scene ahead of the 2013-14 campaign.”
https://calgarysun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/monahan-sidelined-for-season-with-hip-surgery
Then why do you figure he was behind Lindholm and Backlund in 5v5 TOI in the fist 5 games last season, which Lucic and Lewis as his most common linemates?
Cue some rambling nonsense response about how Suter was doing some 3d chess line matching to get the worst skating supposed first line in hockey some serious opportunities.
Articles can be posted that state Monohan started the season as the flames 1C but that doesn’t mean they are true.
Given, in each of the 1st two games of the season, Monohan was clearly 4th in 5 on 5 TOI for centers (behind Lindholm, Backlund, Lewis, etc.) and, play 1 minute with Gaudreau/Tkachuk in game 1 and 4 seconds with them in game 2…….
Here’s my prediction for the troublesome twosome.
Yams signs first. Holland will be directing his efforts here first knowing he can use a good number from Yams to leverage against the Jesse camp. We haven’t heard anything one way or another but silence is usually a golden arrow in these cases he seems far more likely to sign a team-friendly deal.
I’d guess that Holland is playing for the summer the cap increases and is looking to sign two-year deals, but it might just be one. I think a two year deal is an easy sell for Jesse, because he can always to choose to walk at the end if he’s still unhappy. And the future bargaining power is payback for Yams taking a cheap deal now.
And as Godot said yesterday, two years also makes JP that much more tradeable and he’d bring a better asset in return too.
If Holland can then get that team friendly deal from Yams, he squeezes Lehto with it. And it gives another comp for the arbitrator. Maybe Holland even publicly states he’s giving JP the same offer. Put some optics on him.
The key is Yams’s deal–and of course whether or not Jesse and the Oil still want each other.
I would suspect that Holland only wants a two-year deal if it comes with a discount to a 1 or 3 year deal – walking a player right to UFA without buying any UFA years requires a discount.
Two year deals almost always come at a discount to a 3 year deal and almost never to a one year deal.
“Walking a player to free agency” is completely irrelevant if the player doesn’t plan to be here long term and is very likely to not be at the end of the two years.
Two years should also make the agents happy. You’re trading term for dollars savings, putting that day off till there’s a gush of liquidity into the system.
Due to the length of Hyman’s contract, there’s every chance the Oilers would be forced into a future choice between the two players, anyways. They should know in two years who that is, if JP actually wants to hang around long enough for the org to find out. I hope he does, because I think he’d win.
Honest question – why is the switch from, say, LW to RW so hard for some players to make? I can get how the handedness could make a difference in terms of board battles and natural angle to the net for shots, but are there somehow different responsibilities of the two positions? I get that C and W have very different roles that require some different capabilities, but I’ve always been a bit confused that Ws aren’t basically interchangeable from port to starboard. If anyone can enlighten me, it would be appreciated.
I would say the speed of the game at the NHL level is a big driver of guys only being able to play one position really well. You have to be able to react instinctually, and a half second can mean the difference between success and failure. Lots of guys aren’t that great on their backhand either.
Depending on the coach’s system, and really just in general, the wing you play can effect how often you are receiving passes on your forehand or backhand, the angle of attack you need to take on a backcheck, where you need to attack in the board battle in your own end, and the angle you are at to make a breakout pass, among others.
The margin for error and success in the NHL is thin, so if a player has to hesitate even a fraction of a second longer because they are twisting to make a pass on the breakout on the LW as a RH shot, for example, that can be the difference between a tape to tape and a takeaway.
Someone like Hyman, who shoots right but excels on LW, seems to prefer to rush the puck with the puck closer to the boards, allowing him to use his body more to drive the net and do that swoop. He’s such a hard forechecker as well that I think any disadvantage he gets from not having the strong forehand in some battles is mitigated by sheer will and determination.
The easiest way to think of this is imagine you are on a 2 on 1. If you’re passing, on one side you can pass forehand but the other is backhand or turning your whole body to pass forehand. Some players can do both(or are even better on the backhand) some can only do one. Also, think of the shot angle from either side. It’d a different angle to receive the puck and shoot. Everything else is essentially the same because the angles change based on the side you’re on. Some players can do both sides well. Some can’t.
I agree wholeheartedly with you LT. But if 97 and 29 don’t want him on their line….
Have to admit he is a bit awkward when playing with them, like he is not sure where to be or where to go. Nerves/yips, I don’t know but its not magic like we all want it to be. Is coaching the solution here?
If JP is not with Connor or Leon, I have a line of Holloway/Mcleod/JP – as a great line for the current season and in the future. Size, speed and grit needed vs Calgary or Colorado.
Over the course of the last two seasons, McDavid played about half of his 5 on 5 minutes with Jesse. If he didn’t want to play with Jesse, I don’t imagine he would have played with him so much.
I don’t believe there is any truth to this speculation.
If JP is to be traded, what about looking at some teams with cap space that are eager to get young or stay young? I’m thinking Detroit, Chicago, Seattle…
At least with Seattle or Chicago he could potentially get first line minutes.
Not sure what the return could be but a guy like Zadina from Detroit might be a serviceable reclamation project.
And please add Anaheim to that mix as well.
Apologies if this has been mentioned already but Evan Bouchard to wear BoBo Mironov’s #2 next season!
Lol… that’s not Bobo’s #2
Bobo borrowed it himself from this guy:
https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/american-ice-hockey-player-lee-fogolin-of-the-edmonton-oilers-on-the-picture-id72583656?s=594×594
Oilers (in the NHL) to wear #2:
Lee Fogolin
Jim Ennis
Chris Joseph
Bob Beers
Boris Mironov
Brett Hauer
Igor Ulanov
Eric Brewer
Matt Greene
Aaron Johnson
Jim Vandermeer
Jeff Petry
Andrei Sekera
Duncan Keith
and
Evan Bouchard
I like #2 for Bouchard btw.
And the link for anyone who wants to play:
https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/numbers.html
A tribute to Keith perhaps?
That’s a good bet for sure.
That was his number in the OHL
How can they decide who is tampering when, these contracts are always leaked hours or days ahead of time, and announced as soon as the UFA season “opens”.
TSN, SN, McKenzie, Dreger, Seravelli, Friedman – they all thrive on rumors to get their publicity.
Now someone is pouting because oh my gosh people were talking contracts?
Give me a break.
Deangelo wasn’t becoming a UFA though, he was an RFA. That changes the dynamics a fair bit. He was traded and signed 5 days before the start of free agency.
If Deangelo and Philly (through Hayes) exchanged any info prior to the trade that disadvantaged Carolina in the trade negotiations, that would be clear tampering.
UFA’s and teams can start talking right after the draft for the few days leading up to the start of free agency.
Oh, didn’t realize it was about Deangelo, thought it was more Leafs fans whining about Campbell
Yeah within the last few days after Friedman mentioned tampering, there were posts on here worrying that it would be the Oilers and Campbell that could be in trouble. I haven’t seen that scenario being questioned any where else.
JP is a bit like Lisa Simpson, wildly rotating her arms in the general direction of Bart. If she hits him, its his fault.
When he’s going fast enough in the D zone, its often to the detriment of opposing forwards, and the puck pops loose. Just get it up the ice, check that box, and the computer boys love you.
When he’s going fast enough in the O zone, its often to the detriment of his line mates, who require a quicker reaction from the loose puck, and some actual finish.
This is my eye test. I have criticized JP probably since he was drafted for his lack of finish and sense in the O zone. I think McCurdy (the other one) might have stumbled on something about how and where his game is effective, as reflected in other advanced stats, but also why he’s so frustrating to analyze and also, probably, to play with.
Losing JP for a pick is hard as with anytime you lose a 4 overall for a pick. Would prefer a player coming back that can jump in the lineup and be 200 ft responsible player. I am not convinced he will become that, and not convinced he will put up better numbers in his career here, or anywhere.
Probably lots of GMs that think the same, and with the depth the Oilers have in the top 6, all of whom accepted “team friendly” contracts, its a really damn clear road for the player. 1 year show me deal, where he shows he can play a 200 foot game on line 3.
I agree wholeheartedly.
I think the space on the international ice surface masked a lot of the mistakes he’s made on the smaller NHL surface.
Bingo.
I think it all started when JP grew up playing Bandy. You want to talk about a large ice surface. The size of the Bandy rink, also known as the pitch, is equivalent to the size of a soccer field which is approximately 350’x180′ wide. Playing on an NHL surface must be like playing in a phone booth for the ungulate one.
Lisa Simpson was a darn good hockey goalie. Maybe we should have drafted her
Hack the bone!
she must be from Springfield NY, cause that was a Billy Smith tactic 😉
Haha. Good call.
There is no question JP can play a 200 foot game. He needs to play. I don’t think he has to “prove himself” on the third line, though he may well start there.
By this logic of defining a player’s season by their worst stretch (where they are injured), Darnell Nurse should start on the third pair.
Silly.
The great thing is, we will find out.
Ken Holland is well aware he has ZERO right wings under contract. Zero. Trading JP when we’re this close to contending is beyond foolish. He’s a big man that is a late bloomer. I have all day for this player, he’s big, can skate and is hard to separate from the puck. Hands of stone at times? Yes. However he’ll figure it out on some levels I believe. Puljujarvi will be an integral piece we need come post season. His contract won’t be pricy and I agree with Allan, we can’t be shipping him off for a pick. That would undo a portion of Holland’s good work this summer. Hyman is better at LW and Leon is more valuable at 2C.
What if Jesse doesn’t want to play RW for the Edmonton Oilers anymore though??
He is RFA. Trying to force the team to trade didn’t work last time, now with that history, it is a loser move by his agent if that’s the case. He, and his agent, need to move on from any sense of entitlement and do a one year show me deal. After which he is still tradable with one year of team control to Free Agency.
I would love to see him reach out to a player like Hyman, for a mentoring situation. Learn attitude, confidence and perspective in general. I think he is young and impressionable and his agent is doing him great disservice, personally.
Perhaps he and his agent have already taken this route? Like when he signed his last deal. Perhaps for him, personally, he feels the situation hasn’t changed much??
Have you ever worked in an environment where you didn’t get along with the bulk of the people there??
The happiest moments I seen of J.P last year surprisingly or not were when Kane was yuking it up with Jesse are Jesse was intently listening to Kane give advice. These interactions changed my thoughts on Kane the individual.
What’s the basis of your speculation that he doesn’t want to be play for the Oilers?
Where it started (courtesy of THW):
Tom Gazzola of TSN reported his thoughts on the situation while on the Puljujarvi Episode of The Oil Stream, saying, “I would be very surprised if he ends up in an Oilers uniform next year. The topic of a fresh start is coming up again. And it’s not the Oilers just saying, ‘We’re done with Jesse Puljujarvi.’ I think there’s kind of a mutual understanding there that both sides are OK with moving on… It’s not, ‘Hey, they need him to play with skilled players.’ It just feels like it’s time to move on and everybody kind of agrees.”
According to DNB the word from Holland is the following:
“Holland said Puljujarvi has not asked for a trade out of Edmonton….In asking around, the sticking point appears to be Puljujarvi’s role with the team. It sounds like he’d like to return to the Oilers as a top-six winger. Following an injury and an illness, Puljujarvi’s role diminished in the playoffs to the point where he was mostly a bottom-sixer and seldom appeared on the power play…The Oilers aren’t considering acquiring a second-round pick or later for Puljujarvi…Unless one of the team or the players changes their stance, think of Puljujarvi as a nice safety net for the Oilers.”
Is a disagreement between whether a player is a 2nd or 3rd liner enough to demand a trade? Doesn’t really make sense to me.
Nor anyone else. In other words there’s probably more to the story.
I will note that when Gazzola’s news broke, LT himself backed Gazzola wholeheartedly. Somebody told him something.
and, as posted earlier, over the course of his expired 2-year contract, he played with McDavid and/or Drai like 90% of the time.
He struggled late in the season and in the playoffs and, given the urgency of the games, was moved down but history shows he’s a top 6 winger on this team, pretty much exclusively.
That was so accurate that the trade should have been completed a month ago lol
Also JP is the only RW with size on this team…
Don’t worry Foegele for Clutterbuck is coming down the line.
I hope not.
There always seems to be some kind of drama around Jesse Puljujarvi . It’s an on going thing . Maybe it’s time to say enough is enough and move on from him .Get the best possible deal and be done with him .
I would characterize it as drama surrounding his agent more than Jesse. I think he is a young and impressionable man being led astray by a less than ideal agent. His agent seems to be focused more on trying to squeeze the best deal for his own percentage, rather than finding the best outcome for Jesse as a person and as a hockey player.
But the best financial move for his agent would likely be to keep him here playing with the talent we have to up his value on the next contract.
I don’t think money is driving the decisions from the Jesse camp.
I think his agent is like a horse who can smell the barn, he can see his finish line on the horizon (a big contract) and thinks he is there already. Greed is a predictable thing.
If that’s the case get rid of both . They’re both drama queens .
I don’t have experience in high-level sports, but just from my high school years and basketball, it’s shocking how your skills can evaporate when you’re intimidated and mentally a step behind. Driveway all-star to bumbling fool. I was always a demon on defense though, that part never escaped me.
Perhaps JP is struggling with mental aspects and he’s searching for fixes. A fresh start elsewhere always feels like the easiest way, everyone loves a clean fresh slate. Especially when vocal fans begin to express opinions about you that are inconsistent with who you know you really are.
It’s unfortunate, but if JP is fragile right now, and his agent is asking for a mercy deal, what is the best solution?
Unfortunately, the league is littered with high picks who just don’t pop with the team that drafted them. See Sam Bennett. They get traded and then find their groove. We need to somehow avoid this with JP.
But there are also those who never get their groove. Nolan Patrick… Yakupov…Daigle… Stefan…DiPietro
Not suggesting anything about Jesse specifically, but they most definitely don’t always find their groove.
Nichushkin is a prime example, right?
At 18: 14 goals in his 1st season (79 games)
At 19-20: 9 goals in next 2 seasons, including playoffs (97 games)
At 23-25: 24 goals in his next 3 NHL seasons, including playoffs, after 2 yrs in KHL (201 games)
Then BAM! Stanley Cup
At 26: 34 goals in 82 games, including playoffs.
He always had the skill….
So you’re saying 2024-25 will be Jesse’s season?
I think JimmyVs second sentence explains it. LT you didn’t mention in todays post how this may be a personal issue with Jesse. It really does seem like he doesn’t want to be here.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a conversation during his last contract negotiations that went something like “sign the deal Jesse, come back to the team and if at the end of the contract you still don’t feel a part of it we can look at moving you then”.
If that’s the case what’s a GM to do? If that was negotiated in good faith he kind of has to get the best deal he can and move on. Even if it bleeds value out of the org.
Exactly! Everyone is so quick to lay any blame for this not working at the hands of the team. Recent interviews with the GM seem to indicate he’s aware of JP’s value. There may be circumstances that warrant trading him for less than full value. If the player is not happy here, I would rather trade him for less than full value than try to convince him to stay on the team.
This is a good take on what might have been dealed upon a few years back. If this is somewhat true I don’t get why Jesse wasn’t dealt before or at free agency when G.M’s had money and players of their own to rid of. Like a J.P for Necas swap are something along those lines.
Maybe it wasn’t out there Reja? We know Holland isn’t just going to give him away a la Chiarelli. He’ll still try and extract as much value as possible.
Going back to the possible conversation of Holland and the Jesse camp having a few years back that Holland would find a new home for Jesse If things just weren’t working out for his client. If this conversation took place I can’t see Holland not honouring his word.
I feel there maybe something behind this story. Maybe we’ll hear more when the dust settles.
He was shopped. Clearly that deal wasn’t out there.
That’s not how LT likes to frame things. It is never the player’s fault. The org is always to blame.It has been this way since 2006. And we could be talking about MAP, MPS, or Yak, all cut and pasted from the past.
You’ve hit on the very crux of the issue and it is not even mentioned above. Because if it was there would be little discussion now and no anger later at a trade for a pick.
Always be wary of narratives that are aimed at your fears and not your rationale. If we’ve learned anything from Covid…
The only way I trade JP is in part of a bigger package. Say with Barrie. Does that get us Chychrun?
That’s the dream, but I’d imagine you’d have to add Broberg and the 2023 1st to even begin the conversation. Would be tough to swallow but I would make the trade.
If you add broberg and 2023 first, I don’t think you need Barrie involved.
I think you do to make the money work…..
The salary cap, rather than falling out of contention, was the cause for the gap in Holland’s later years in Detroit. He was signing Hall of Famers with a blank cheque prior.
Of the five Detroit names LT listed, Rafalski and Hossa were both post cap signings.
True – but those Hall of Famers, some of whom came with outsized personalities and egos, had to accept lesser roles when they joined Detroit.
If it was so easy to just sign a bunch of HOFers and then … Bam! Championship … the Lakers with Shaq, Kobe, Malone and Payton should have won too.
Brad Holland talked about this … getting these players across the finish line. A GMs job is more than just negotiating contracts and making transactions.
And BTW … similar criticisms could have been levied at Sather towards the end of his tenure. He lost a lot of value on deals (I don’t mean the trades for the Boys on the Bud players) but rather for guys like MacIvor, Satan and many others.
Is that a failure on the GM that those players didn’t develop until after they left … or was the loss of value amplified by the aging out/trading away of core pieces that were crucial to the identities of those teams.
I really liked how LT used the phrase “falling out of contention” to express an idea that is quite nuanced … very nice writing today (as usual).
plus he wasn’t finding late round gems such as lidstrom, zetterburg and datsyuk anymore
This is a trade that is unwinnable in every respect. As fans we know his pros and cons. His stats and analytics tell varying stories depending on what you look at. He’s got superstar potential but it’s paid relatively cheaply in the grand scheme of things.
As fans we want a huge return on the potential and what his fancy stats suggest he can be.
On the flip side, teams know the oil are in tough on this one because of the agent, the player’s history both on and off the ice, and his play. Plus everyone is in tight against the cap for the most part and won’t be able to take on a 3 to 4 million dollar player unless he’s signed for less. Don’t see it happening under any circumstances.
I personally think he’s making a mistake and would likely thrive here longterm. I don’t foresee that though and he might join the exclusive club of Yakupov in the near future.
Trading JP for a second round pick woylg be a profound failure. Unless the player absolutely doesn’t want to be here, find a way to pay him
and keep him.
I think this is it 100% Jimmy.
I love Puljujarvi but I fear he & his agent see his destiny being fulfilled elsewhere.
Last night I had a dream that I met Jesse.
He cut me off in traffic, so naturally I followed him, shook his hand & said thank-you.
I wished him well & told him I will always be a fan.
If he wanted to be here, would we be having this conversation?
Interesting read from CoH/Staples about Jesse, kinda contradicts some of the analyses done by the “computer boys”.
Bruce, you need to have a chat with your cousin 😁
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/jesse-puljujarvi-a-weak-passer-hmm-jesse-puljujarvi-should-be-traded-how-so
An excellent article on JP from Staples/COH.
The Cult’s scoring chance contribution project is one of the most valuable pieces of Oiler data out there.
Those two do a yeoman’s job!
Interesting to see Foegele with the 3rd best passes on Grade A shots for wingers behind JP and Hyman. So, ahead of Yamamoto and Kane.
I don’t know. This might be a “give Jesse one more chance” idea which is obviously the right thing to do. At some point, you do need to cut ties with a player (or agent) who keeps making it known he should be given opportunities beyond what he has earned.
Jesse’s best shot at offensive opportunities is here. The coaches have not slighted him in the least. When he plays well, he gets rewarded and when he slumps, he gets demoted. Thats the way it should be on a good team.
A trade probably would not work out well for either team or player. But both sides need to realize this and strive to make this relationship stick. Right now, I think the team is working harder in that area. Yeah the cap crunch makes the financial side difficult, but again – thats expected on a team with multiple superstars (some of whom are still paid less than market value)
I’m not even sure that its accurate to say “he gets demoted” when he’s struggling. Over the course of his 2-year contract, he’s played apx 1700 minutes at 5 on 5 and a total of 305 minutes were without at least one of McDavid or Drai – and I would posit that most of those were at the beginning of the prior season when he started on the 3rd line and some of them were on the second line when McDavid/Drai were loaded up.
Prior to the playoffs this season, he has been almost exclusively in the top 6.
This is why Jesse/Lehto looking for some short of assurance on a top 6 role boggles my mind.
I try to be as charitable as I can in my arguments, but yeah – I did not think he spent as little time on the third line as your stats show
Pujljuarvi played 1673:19 in 5v5 TOI across the last 2 seasons.
Only 179:33 of that TOI (not quite 11% of it) was spent without at least one of McDavid, Draisaitl or Nuge on the ice with him. He spent 332:46 with both of McDavid and Draisaitl.
I guess some of the time with Nuge was on the ‘3rd line’, but still.
Edit: here is confirmation of those numbers:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2022-05-01&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8479344&p3=8477934&p4=8476454&p5=0
To quote a great sports scribe, we don’t know what we don’t know. There was reason Holland traded Bear and there is a reason Holland seems to be willing to trade Puljujarvi
Is it a good reason? Was/is the trade fair value for the player?
Bear was dealt in favour of Bouchard. That deal made sense and makes sense now. Is there a ready JP replacement?
Tampering…looks like DeAngelo Hayes and Philly might be in hot water with the tampering accusations Friedman was talking about…
Philly has always marched to their own beat but the last few years have been an absolute shitshow with their management.
If there is going to be any sort of action from potential accusations, I’m going to presume that the Oilers may be involved vis-a-vis Campbell.
Just add on another draft pick to the list of those “stolen” by the NHL (Lucic, Chiarelli, McLellan….).