I keep reading that “Ryan Nugent-Hopkins better smarten up” and wonder if people are seeing a different player than the one we’ve watched for the last decade. “Nuge” and “smart” are like peanut butter and jam, they just go together. I think what people really mean is “how long will Nuge hold on to a job on one of the top two skill lines?” and that’s a smart question.
THE ATHLETIC!
- NEW Lowetide: 5 times Oilers management mishandled Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: Skinner’s rise shows importance of homegrown goalies
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
CURRENT SKILL FORWARDS
This is a rich pool of talent to draw from, I think the odd man out based on these totals is Kailer Yamamoto but your mileage may vary. Not important either, we know Yamamoto (who is a good player) will return. So, Nuge does well in power-play points-per-60, five-on-five goal differential and he’s a little shy in five-on-five points-per-60. Just so you know, there are 186 top-six forwards in the NHL, the lowest points-per-60 total for that group is 1.66. It’s shared by PLD, Jakub Voracek, Trent Frederic and Alexis Lafreniere.
Did you notice that Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi are also just below the line? That’s not the point of the exercise.
The best way, according to baseball big brain Bill James, to evaluate a player are his performances in the most recent three seasons. Sometimes that isn’t possible, but if we take the numbers posted by all three of the men just below 1.66, where do we land? Yamamoto 1.72, Nuge 1.65, Puljujarvi 1.58 in the last three NHL seasons. They’re all right there, but all three could best be described as complementary offensive contributors.
How much should a team pay for a complementary skill winger, in this economy? That’s the answer Ken Holland is looking to find this week. I bet it’s around $3 million a year.
Is there a way we can isolate each player, use five-on-five numbers over these three seasons and list just the time away from both 97 and Draisaitl? NST’s brilliant Line Tool gives us the on-ice (not individual) totals:
- Nuge: 1085 mins, 45.7% shot share, 43.8% goal share, 46.2% expected goals
- Yamamoto: 401 mins, 45.3% shot share, 25% goal share, 45.1 % expected goals
- Puljujarvi: 306 mins, 49.6% shot share, 41.2% goal share, 55.3% expected goals
PUCK IQ SLEDGEHAMMER
Do you remember the Vollman Sledgehammers? No, they weren’t a rock band from the Alps, but rather a concoction that delivered a combination of time on ice in specific situations and results above and below 50 percent to represent success or failure. The Vollman Sledgehammer helped many of us figure out what was going on, as it was and is a powerful aid.
The Puck IQ folks have been running their own sledgehammer for some time now, and it gives a similar view, with a couple of tweaks. First, you can drill down on specifics, as in “versus elites” and second Dangerous Fenwick is more powerful than Corsi because it gives special value to more dangerous shots. So, it’s a clearer view. X-Axis is Dangerous Fenwick percentage, Y is time-on-ice versus elites:
This is the 2021-22 season versus elites. We see immediately that Leon Draisaitl is below 50 percent and we know he had some issues this past season. Connor McDavid had another ridiculous year versus elites, and there are four wingers (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Kane, Hyman) who both contributed and benefited from playing with the impact centres. The Nuge number is a concern. Here are his numbers against elites, by year.
As you can see via my clever usage of yellow highlighter, the Nuge had an outlier season and not in a good way. That’s a nervous norvous area of the graph for sure. The other outlier, the splendid 20-21 total, was McDavid aided to the tune of almost 400 minutes of five-on-five play. Nuge played with 97 just 54 minutes in 2021-22.
It’s a concern for sure, and one of the solutions could be moving Nuge down to a third line, with Jesse Puljujarvi. That would be a great solution, don’t think it happens. One quick note: Back to the top graph, do you see the player over 50 percent and playing over 25 percent of his time against elites? That’s Ryan McLeod. He may play Rejean Houle to RNH’s John Ferguson in the future. Hurts me to say it, but the conversation is going to be had eventually. Just not today.
SCOTT WHEELER
Wheeler’s new rankings of the top 50 drafted prospects is up! There are two Oilers and a third honorable mention. I won’t spoil it, link is here.
CRAP SHOOT
One of the things my book “On the Clock” (pre-order here) talks about is the massive amount of luck required to be successful in the draft. I’m going to have a post tomorrow on the last several Oilers draft seasons and a large point of the conversation will be on late picks. Tyler Wright chose Anton Forsberg No. 188 overall in 2011, and it took him until last season to establish an NHL home. So, tomorrow, when I write about Joel Maatta, please keep it in mind.
NEW for The Athletic: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
https://theathletic.com/3445169/2022/07/25/edmonton-oilers-free-agents-signings/
So he wanted 3.2 and Holland 2.8 and settled on 3?
thats about where I had him
Oilers and Flames both at 16-1 odds to win the cup. No respect for Campbell like Connor said if you can handle the net for 2 years in TO every other place is gravy.
Schaefer and Chiasson are at Canada’s camp for the ’23 WJHC. Tonight featured Team White (Schaefer) vs. Team Red (Chiasson).
Red came away with a 5-3 win, with Schaefer picking up a primary helper in the losing cause.
Schaefer will be playing in tomorrow’s game, with Chiasson playing Wednesday.
https://www.hockeycanada.ca/en-ca/team-canada/men/under-18/2022-23/selection-camp/stats/schedule
Ryan Leslie from Sportsnet Calgary suggesting the Flames are interested in aquiring JT Miller from the Canucks.
I imagine that would require a RHD, a 1st round pick and a prospect.
He has one year to UFA and will be 30 looking for his retirement contract. Vancouver will likely get a first round draft choice at the trade deadline. They might get more if they can manage a sign and trade assuming a reasonable cap hit contract.
That would be ridiculously amazing
Blow all their futures for a first or second round exit
It would make more sense for Vancouver to trade him to the Devils for Severson and prospects. The Devils have Hamilton, Severson, and Marino on the right side, and their defensive prospect pool is deep with Nemec, Hughes, Mukhamadullin, Bahl, and Casey. And more importantly, Miller is an American and likely wouldn’t resign with the Flames (although I suppose that isn’t the Canucks’ problem).
Why would Canucks deal Miller within the division? Also, why would Calgary risk paying a kings ransom for an American player when they just got burned….just does not make sense to me.
Mangiapane plus seems much more likely.
Question for the folks who watched the Cup finals/know more about Tampa than I do – how do you think an Edmonton/Tampa finals would most likely have gone?
Oilers lose in 6 after being out-goaltended for 6 straight games.
McDavid or Leon wins the Conn Smythe and nearly gets Gretzky’s playoff points record in the process.
With Nurse and Leon hurt it would have been a toss up.
Fair to say Vasilevskiy is the new ‘best goalie by popular acclaim?’
Statistically, the easiest way to compare Tampa and Edmonton is to look at Colorado’s stats against both teams. Only one really challenged the Avalanche at 5v5. Here are Colorado’s stats in each series:
vs NAS: 59.66 xGF%, 62.69 SCF%, 56.58 HDCF%
vs STL: 59.84 xGF%, 62.93 SCF%, 62.89 HDCF%
vs EDM: 53.28 xGF%, 53.03 SCF%, 46.07 HDCF%
vs TBL: 60.57 xGF%, 60.20 SCF%, 56.73 HDCF%
As for Colorado’s vaunted defense, here’s how many high danger chances they allowed from each opponent:
NAS: 9.95 HDCA/60
STL: 6.89 HDCA/60
EDM: 15.06 HDCA/60
TBL: 9.00 HDCA/60
Again Edmonton is the anomaly.
Here’s a look at how the three teams performed down the stretch, from Feb 10th through the end of the regular season:
Record
2. Edmonton: .724 (38 gp)
8. Colorado: .662 (37 gp)
13. Tampa Bay: .629 (35 gp)
GF – GA = goal differential
Edmonton: 3.82 – 2.76 = +1.06
Tampa Bay: 3.66 – 2.83 = +0.83
Colorado: 3.38 – 2.76 = +0.62
SF – SA
Edmonton: 34.8 – 32.4
Tampa Bay: 31.9 – 30.0
Colorado: 34.8 – 33.2
Net PP, Net PK
Tampa Bay: 28.6%, 82.6%
Edmonton: 21.4%, 87.0%
Colorado: 21.4%, 82.8%
IMO Edmonton was the better team, I think a theoretical Tampa-Edmonton series would have come down to if the Oilers could outscore their injured starter’s mistakes.
It’s really cool to see how Edmonton did (relatively) well vs. Colorado at 5v5. And I love the result.
I don’t think it’s fair to just use 5v5 though. I’ve looked before at this very thing but only checked all situations numbers. By those COL did very similarly vs. TB and EDM. I guess that means that COL special teams dominated the Oilers more than they did TB.
COL (all situations)
vs. EDM:
57.9 SF%
62.9 GF%
58.7 xGF%
55.0 SCF%
51.4 HDCF%
vs. TBY:
56.4 SF%
57.4 GF%
57.8 xGF%
60.3 SCF%
55.4 HDCF%
The all situations numbers put TB and EDM in a very similar spot relative to the Oilers.
Those are some really interesting numbers, thanks for putting that together. They show Edmonton as being closer to the Avs quality than my eyes did. Encouraging!
Question for the room – do you folks think the Oilers/JP disconnect is over money or role? What I mean is if JP wants x dollars, that’s much more easily worked out than if he wants to be guaranteed a feature role as a scorer.
Lack of trust. Read Lowetide’s recent article about the 50 ways the Oilers screwed up their relationship with Puljujarvi.
Trust, once lost, is nearly an impossible thing to repair.
Jesse lived up to his end of the bargain. He returned from Europe, signed a team friendly two year deal, and delivered more than full value on that contract.
Chiarelli and McLellan broke the original understanding with the Puljujarvi camp, by not playing him after bribing him not to stay in Europe.
And then McLellan didn’t like the hockey player he got, and set about to try to fundamentally change the player. Hey…this is a square peg. You gotta be around peg.
The medical staff then misdiagnosed his injury, and apparently nobody believed him when he said he was experiencing pain in his hips for a long time.
i.e. we don’t believe you, we don’t believe you, we don’t believe you…hey you need effing surgery on both your hips.
The medical part is false. The Oilers medical staff were the ones who told him he needed surgery. Jesse decided to get a second opinion and was also told he required surgery. Not sure why you are revising history here.
They probably didn’t believe his complaints about pain for a long time before that. The doctors, the coaches, his teammates. So after telling him for months, there was nothing wrong, suddenly he needed surgery on both your hips. Would you believe or trust those doctors? Think about those months of misdiagnosis fouled up relatioinships.and trust.
That is wild speculation on your part. You have no idea when he reported pain and the subsequent tests, physical therapy, and follow-up imaging that was performed. You are attempting to throw the Oilers medical staff under the bus for some unknown reason. The medical staff is top tier and they don’t dismiss players’ injury concerns.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/oilers-jesse-puljujarvi-undergo-season-ending-hip-surgery/
For anyone who didn’t click through to the link: Godot posts this like it backs up his narrative when it does not. At all.
“The injury has been bothering Jesse for some time.” If it had been diagnosed in a timely manner, it would not have been bothering him for some time.
So something was bothering him, they couldn’t figure it out, and everyone was looking at Jesse sideways. The media talking heads were looking at Jesse sideways.
Diagnosis is a sequential process. If you go to your doctor for a headache that doesn’t subside, do you think the first course of recommended treatment is brain surgery?
Well I remember what was being said and suggested in the months before the diagnosis.
Puljujarvi would not have found it necessary to seek out a 2nd opinion if the diagnosis had not come seemingly out of the blue, after they had not been doubting him all along.
There was a whole lot of looking at him sideways before that.
The fact that he decided to stay in Europe the following season and request a trade is indicative that he had lost trust in the organization that had doubted him, even about an injury.
FAI isn’t really an injury.
i would ask how you have inside knowledge into jesses medical records and discussions with the oilers medical staff who are all trained professionals.
Probably….. the use of that word discredits your point altogether.
Creating false narratives for or against JP is not helping the fanbase at all.
Also, they did play him 40 games in the NHL when he was 18 even though he wasn’t ready physically to play. And he could barely speak English—how is the coach supposed to communicate with a rookie if he can’t speak English? Poor Todd McLellan. How much of that was Chiarelli’s fault and how much was Marcus Legato’s fault? It is completely disingenuous and unfair to throw all the blame on Oilers management.
The first hit to the relationship was on Jesse’s agency and requiring the agreement to keep him on the roster for 40 games as an 18-year old, vesting a year towards UFA status and lowering his waiver exception years from 5 to 3.
The org effed up as well throughout the relationship but hte first error was on Jesse’s agency!
Jesse and his agent wanted to stay in Europe. It was Chiarelli who plied them with bribes and guarentees which turned out to be lies.
If an 18-year old European wants to stay in Europe, you should damn let him.
This is the first I’ve ever heard this and, with respect, without some substantive back-up, I don’t believe it to be true.
Jesse has not grabbed the brass ring YET. He was drafted in 2016 and 6 years later he is struggling to define who he is. This is not a develop, nor is it a management failure, this is Jesse failing Jesse. He has been groomed in Europe, grooming in the AHL, played with Conner, played with Leon, has had powerplay time. But he has not grabbed the brass ring in a performance based industry YET.
Those in his top ten draft class that have produced in NHL have been paid.
1.Matthews 407gm, 457 points, $52.2M life time earnings
2.Laine 407gm, 327 pts, $25.7M
6.Tkachuk 431gm, 382 pts, $31.8M
7 Keller 360 gm 256 points, $18.3M
3.PLD 361 gms, 239 pts, $12.8M
9.Sergachev 362gms, 174 points $10.0M
10 Jost 342 gm 109 points, $5.3M
4 Jesse 259gm, 98 points, $4.5M
8 Nylander 84gms, 32 points $3.2M
6 Juolevi 41 gms, 3 points, $1.8M
That about sums it up.
Anyone who has ever played organized hockey knows that the basic issue with JP as a hockey player is a total lack of confidence in his abilities when he carries the puck. He is great at defensive retrieval play but totally clueless when he actually has the puck. Nobody wants to play on a line with this kind of player. The sooner he is not in our lineup the better our team will perform!
Yeah, I think it’s confidence. Could be hockey sense I guess, but it looks like he’s not sure what to do. He did look very different last fall compared to the end of season and the playoffs though, so maybe he’ll get it back.
Easier to gain confidence than 6 inches of height I guess, so maybe he’ll become something great.
BREAKING NEWS: McDavid calls Toronto the Hockey Hotbed – The countdown to his UFA signing with the Leafs officially begins.
Ha.
It is nice to see McDavid and listen to some words. It’s been over a month.
https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/1551601094110851072?s=21&t=aDnHD4OaMa8hsHHmgLbKbw
I forgot to mention, Nugent-Bowman grinding in the off-season – the one with semi substantive questions …..
Oilers tweeting out video of Nurse on the golf course. Doesn’t seem like a “hip flexor tear friendly sport” so I’m thinking there is no concern regarding Nurse being healed, and even trained up, for the start of the season (which also lines up with the unofficial timeframes I saw for the injury).
Kane/McDavid/Yamamoto
Hyman/Nuge/Drai
Holloway/McLeod/Puljujarvi
Janmark/Ryan/Training Camp Winner
I’m not against Drai playing wing in order to keep Hyman on his better side…….. switch 1RW and 3RW as we please.
Bourgault arriving at some point solidifies the Stanley Cup Depth.
OP, you know when you type Hyman/Nuge/Drai you’re really typing Hyman/Drai/Nuge or Nuge/Drai/Hyman no matter how badly you want to keep Hyman on the LW.
If Nuge and Drai are on the same line Drai is playing center full stop.
Other than that I like the look of your lineup!
From what I gather, Holloway is considered “ready.” I would still like to see him beat out an established NHLer for a job. I get that may not be possible this season. I am certainly interested in watching that third line for 20 games to see what happens!
I mean, the depth chart above has Holloway (3rd line) playing ahead of 400 game NHL vet Mattias Janmark (4th line). 😉
The usefulliness of TOI% vs elite depend on what is considered elite. In the Corsi days it used be defined as someone who has >55%CF. Not sure if the same definition is usdd or >55%FF is used when one plot the %FF in the x axis.
If >55% FF is used, the obvious problem is that Draisatl isn’t actually considered an elite but Pulujarvi is, and this does not meet the eyes test. It also raises the question how elite is elite on the other teams being counted.
Keep in mind the Corsi and Fenwick counts shots as proxy for actual offensw. The vanilla form generally expect all shots are equal and a PDO would regress to 100%. We know now there is high danger series of fancy stats, and for the latter we know elite scorrers has high shooting percentage that does not regress to league average.
You could also use TOI% vs elite to assess a coach (not so much good/bad as stylisticly). After all, a different coach might manage the same roster in a very different way, and you could maybe gain some insight into their strategy. IMO the stat is more directly revealing of what the coach thinks about the player than it is about the player.
The problem is the definition of elite itself. The original premise is that the CF% is normally distributed at 50% with 3 sigma range 40%~60% and the 55%CF at the 95% percentile. It was tempting to label the top 5 % CF as elite if one uses the assumption that more shots = more offensive ability.
There is a strong correlation between CF% aand FF%. The two data lends itself a striaght line fit(on average +/-5% of each other with the 3 sigma range about +/-10%). The correlation between CF% and FF% vs GF% is weaker. The graph looks like a big blob of data with a weak slope fit(on average about +/-10% of each other with a 3 sigma range +/-15%). The small 5% change in either CF% or FF% get lost as noise in GF% in a huge hurrry.
There are 18 skaters in a team, so a 5% population works out to 0.6 elites a team. In addition, many of those with >55% CF are also lower line (low TOI/gp) players. This means the 5% elite from the population is was basically one player per team (40% of the team does not even have one belonging in the top 5% CF% or FF%), and the player binned as elite is sometimes not so elite in the team in the first place(for example Pulujarvi vs Draisatl).
Not sure how people are doing it these days, but some transparency in the definition would be very nice.
Your concerns likely remain valid, but the PuckIQ folks have been transparent about their methodology and definitions.
Their website links to this blog entry outlining what they’re doing:
https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html?m=1
Presiming Foegele is moved in a cap structuring move:
Holloway/Nuge/Puljujarvi – that’s a 3rd line the team can win with.
Now, does it works the same with Holloway/McLeod/Puljujarvi which allows Nuge to pair with Kane as top 6 LWs (and moves Hyman to pair with Yamamoto as top 6 RWs)?
I don’t like Hyman on the right side – small eye sample but my eye tells me he’s much more effective on the left and I think that rings true from hi Leaf days.
I would also note that the Leon Draisaitl has played RW (as well as LW) and has done so at a generational talent level.
He can play RW with McDavid, he can play RW with Nuge (although I’m not sure we’ve seen that and, when together, Leon is the center but, again, Hyman staying on the left side is something I would like to see, if possible).
I have no qualms about McLeod as 3C – of course, Nuge at 3C is incredibly deep but McLeod at 3C is still solid, to me.
Yeah I think McLeod’s emergence will allow us to use Nuge’s versatility even more. I’m anticipating our lines evolving as the season goes on. I think having a versatile roster is a bigger advantage in the playoffs than the regular season, because it’s harder for the other coach to neutralize your play style when they don’t know for sure which of several play styles you will throw at them on a given night.
I like Kailer Yamamoto and he is going to be a valuable player to the Stanley Cup winning teams. He’s not going to “break the bank” cap wise – likely in the $3MM range for this coming season and, frankly, probably never really more than the $4MM range, at least any time soon.
I think he is serviceable in the top six – we know some players like to play with him given his chaos creation in the offensive zone and he did score 20 goals with limited PP time, and no PP1 time.
At the same time, this team will truly be deep enough to contend when Yamamoto is pressed down to the 3rd line (and top 6 injury fill in).
The key there is Godot’s favourite, Xavier Bourgault. I think it would be a stretch to say he’s top 6 RW ready now and likely a bit presumptuous to say he will be by playoffs, or even by October 2023 but I do think he has the skillset and the drive to be a legit top 6 RW on this team and it may not take that long.
Puljujarvi, Bourgault, Yamamoto – that is top 6 RW depth I think the team can win a championship with. There are other potential options bubbling, the likes of Petrov and Savoie and Tulio (not all “natural RWs” ind you) but none of them are NHL locks, let alone top 6 locks and, well, timing of arrival may be years and years. Bourgault is the guy that is reasonably projectable during the next couple of seasons.
As far as Nuge “on a skill line”, well, some of that will depend on the three RFAs and the ability to keep them in the fold and if Foegele is moved for the cap space and if Holloway looks 3rd line, middle six or skill line ready in October, January, May, next season….
Of course, there is the “shadow game” he can play with McLeod where both can play 3C while the other plays LW. I do think that top 6 LW is a bit of a stretch for McLeod – I’m not sure he’ll ever had “true top 6 skill/production” but his solid 2-way game and his zone exit/transition/zone entry game is a benefit to any line he plays on (although, of course, somewhat wasted when playing with a McDavid).
I can’t argue that Nuge’s 5 on 5 production over the last few seasons has been good or even “good enough”. Frankly for a “core veteran skill player” that has played mostly on the top two lines (often without Leon or McDavid but often with), I would “expect” more 5 on 5 production.
Maybe my expectations are unreasonable given he has always been a PP producer, more than an evens producer, dating back to his junior days.
At the same time, I see the skill, the vision and the talent and I know he can produce more and I’ve seen him produce more. He’s not in regression years but he has had injury problems that maybe hamper his production.
In any event, I do “expect” him up closer to 2 P/60 this season – either he’s playing with top 6 skill (which, on this team, is high end) or he should be seeing to softs on the third line. Its been a couple seasons of “meh” at 5 on 5 but I think its there and, my goodness, if he can bounce back in this area, what depth.
Where I think Nuge has really improved the last year or so is on the PK. he’s always been part of the PK, and an important part of the PK but I’ve never thought he was truly elite in the skill. I don’t know what “the numbers” say, and frankly, for the PK SA/60 and GA/60 don’t really tell the story (given PK1 playing against PP1 and PK2-3 often seeing PP2, for example). What I do know is what I saw last season which was often elite PK work from Nuge (often paired with Hyman) – not only preventing zone entry and set-up and great work in the defensive zone half game but also creating scoring chances for.
Nuge is a major/core player of this team. What the team has lacked for years and years is that “veteran core player”, to supplement the young skill (and aging veterans). Nuge is now a secondary player but still a core player and still important to the team and he’s going in to his 28-30 years – this type of player is important to true cup contending teams.
I wish he had Klefbom to supplement him on the back-end – he was just arriving to that state “supplementary veteran core player” still in his prime. Nurse may be that guy at some point but he’s still a few years away.
Well, that was a ramble.
It was a ramble but your second last paragraph hits the nail on the head.
Little Nugget always played on teams that did not have a veteran leadership core. There were fewer leaders to learn from. Nuge now will be that leader. Likely his numbers will not truly show his value, but he is a calm, humble, committed player, able to support all over the line up.
Nugent-Hopkins delivered big goals in the playoffs. Q.E.D.
The power play went into the tank when he was injured. Q.E.D.
He gets constantly changing 2nd leftovers for wingers, and people complain about his 5 vs 5 offense.
I personally find it comforting to have a Swiss Army knife player in the top six. While his lack of offence bothers some, his complete 200 ft game and hockey IQ on the PP make him ( in my opinion) very valuable and a rare and valuable asset to the team. The only thing Nuge doesn’t do at NHL level is play goal!
If you have ever played hockey with a Jesse P style winger then you would be constantly frustrated. The man works so hard on the forecheck and the backcheck to gain possession of the puck and when he does he immediately looks to get rid of it, anywhere. He is 24 years old. When will the game slow down for him? When will his hockey IQ elevate? Should he stay or should he go, only Kenny know, that’s why he is the GM.
We are in peak years for Connor and Leon we need someone that can cash in aka Kevin Stevens. We had Patty and Lucic let’s see how many Kane taps in 40> Should be no problem.
Quotes from Tkachuk:Matthew Tkachuk after trade to Panthers: ‘I hate Edmonton. I hate Tampa more now’ (msn.com)
Obligatory “What a dingus,” comment. I don’t think he gets how hate works – if Captain Ahab got a new job in IT, would he stop hating white wales and start hating PEBCAKs? I also don’t think he gets how swagger works – running around like a goof when it looks safe and easy then doing the turtle-chicken is not what most people think of as “swagger.”
This is a great comment.
How much actual value is there in being an “agitator”?
The hockey intelligentsia throw this word around in a positive light, but based on the BoA over the past few years, Tkachuk’s agitations are totally neutered by the fact he doesn’t back up shit. In fact, you could argue his acting the prick brings out the best in his opponents.
Tkachuk played like a kitten when it mattered most in May.
You think Tampa is going to be intimidated by this guy? Maroon will lean on him in the corner and that’ll be the end of it.
For all his barking, Matthew Tkachuk will have made himself a richer man … as for the actual value of it all, Bill Zito will have paid extra for a trait that may be more of a liability than an asset towards actually winning.
Patrick Maroon. I loved this player. His first or second game in Edmonton he was taking on Flyers two at a time! It is awesome how his career turned out.
The player type can change the course of the game or playoff series, but usually doesn’t. Often when the “agitator” is decisive, it’s by doing something that would normally be considered wildly outside of the rules, but is allowed because NHL. I think of them as being ‘as valuable as the NHL lets to be.’ Raffi Torres was a great example – he could change a playoff series with one hit, and he did just that pretty much every year until the NHL decided not to let him anymore. If Tom Wilson/Raffi Torres/Whoever is allowed to break the rules in spectacular, violent, incendiary fashion, his team’s probably gonna win that game.
IMO Tkachuk is too good of a player to describe as an agitator. He and Brad Marchand are my least favourite active players, because they are world class talents who choose to cheat anyways.
Everybody hates Edmonton and why wouldn’t Tkachuk. The Oilers passed on him and couldn’t run fast enough to the podium to draft Jesse.
“Swagger” is the kind of compliment one should only give to another person and never to themself.
As soon as someone self identifies as having swagger, it’s usually code for “annoying”.
Kassian was a force in the playoffs a few years back, and Tikkanen took the flames down a peg when Mess was injured. Your mileage may vary but two of my fonder playoff memories are those two running amok.
Adam Graves & Joe Murphy a couple more Oilers that went balls to the wall when it counted.
Hey all, hope you’ve been having a grand summer. I’ve been insanely busy with the old family life stuff so had less of a chance to post in here. Still been keeping up to date with reading the blog at least. Thought I would chime in today on Nuge:
I agree that moving him down to the 3rd line and running him there as a centre might be the best way forward. I’d love to see JP stay as part of that, I think you could have a real chance for a solid outscoring line with those two players on there. Maybe Holloway slides in as the 3rd line winger. The only fly in the ointment is that with Nuge moving from wing on the second line to centre on the 3rd and if JP is the 3rd line winger we’re left with another hole to fill in the top 6.
Kane-McDavid-Yamo
Hyman-Drai-XXX
Holloway-Nuge-JP
Foegele-McLeod-Ryan
Flip Hyman and Yamo to suit your tastes, personally I prefer Hyman on the left side.
The moral of the story for me is that it’s going to be a touch hard to keep both Yamo and JP with the cap the way it is so something has to give. I think we’re far from done trade wise this summer. Something is going to give – I’m looking at Foegele being the one to be moved out more so than Barrie. However, I acknowledge Barrie would bring more return, and maybe it’s easier to find a hairy assed right shot d to slide onto the third pair to help bring along our younger d-men.
The team loves Barrie. I think they keep him over the wingers despite his cap.
In your line up, if you bump up Nuge and use McLeod as 3C you have smart defensive player in Nuge who can play anywhere, and a puck mover, zone entry specialist in McLeod.
Foegele has also played the right side. Foegele scored 12(?) last year while Jesse scored 14.
Barrie impressed me with his defensive game and (for him) physical game during the playoffs. IMO he has taken a noticeable step. He’ll never be a stalwart, but he’s much less of a liability without the puck.
For me, Barrie’s biggest defensive issue as an Oiler hasn’t been his play in the defensive zone – no, he’s not a great cycle breaker or crease-clearer but he’s got a good stick and I think he’s serviceable in the d-zone (although not great denying zone entry).
For me, his biggest issue as an Oiler has been poor offensive zone and neutral zone decisions without the puck – stepping up and pinching at the wrong times and not stopping the puck or the man – its led to numerous odd-man rushes against and goals against.
To my eye, Barrie essentially cut that mistake out of his game after the coaching change. I would presume it was a combination of personal coaching and attention but also to better forward support as an active focus of the team game.
I wonder if that’s playing an even bigger part than you’re realizing.
The Athletic has the Oilers as 100% lock for playoffs amongst staff voters along with Colorado and St. Louis
in related news HH just cancelled his Athletic subscription
Hiyoooo!
Hey…you forgot to mention that 38.6% picked the Avalanche to repeat as cup champions and another 38.6% picked them as the runner up in the finals.
So almost 80% pick them to come out of the West compared to 15.9% for the Oilers.
Also of note…VGK are at 36.4% to be the dark horse team in the Pacific with the same odds (+250) as the Oilers to win the Pacific.
Sounds about right.
so tiresome really.
Lehner got his last Coach fired and gave it a gallant effort to slander another previous Coach. Lets see how long this new Coach lasts. Vegas gets everything they deserve and more for chucking cult hero Fleury to the curb like a bad blind date.
LB is the backup and delivered a .895 in 24 games (as per Hockey Reference). When RL is injured (mentally or physically) and they have to rely on LB, the VGK may not look so good.
Meanwhile, Skinner delivered .913 in 13 games. GOG
Reading “nyah nyah you aren’t the most likely team to win the Cup,” warms my heart and puts a smile on my face. The only taunt that will make me happier is “nyah nyah you guys won’t repeat as Cup winners.”
Literally dripping with wistful schadenfreude.
I think there is a reason why 31 other teams aren’t banging down the door on acquiring JP. Many of you have alluded them already and it goes without saying that where there is smoke there is fire.
Although his numbers say one thing his on ice play in the offensive zone isn’t where it needs to be. Cast the blame where you want, the oilers, the agent, wherever. But at some point the player needs to own up to things and accept that he can’t keep up with the top six as its currently constructed.
Should Mcdavid have to change his game to accommodate Jesse? No. Should Drai? No
Should Jesse find the intestinal fortitude and hunger to change his game, vision, whatever, to keep up with these guys? Yes.
Call it hockey iq, call it an inability to transition to the smaller ice surface and hence the speed, call it whatever you want. He’s got to bring it himself.
His potential is so vast it’s mind boggling that this org and we as fans have to debate this ad nauseum for as long as we have. One way or another I just want this drama with JP to be over. For everyone’s sake.
I think a big factor is what his contract will be after the arbitration hearing. Teams are so tight to the cap. Some teams walked away from some really good RFAs because their cap hit was too high in their opinion.
You’re likely right.
There are going to be a lot of unemployed NHL players this year.
I would say there might be some good NHL players on cheaper 1 year deals.
So how do we know other teams are not banging down the door? Maybe Hollands price is just too dear. We make all kinds of accusations around here about Jesse without any real proof of any of this. It drives me crazy that we go on for weeks and we really are arguing about things where there is no proof of any of it.
Those 5 on 5 Nuge points……are nothing new. Ugly.
Smart player. But he needs to be on the 3rd line.
As other have mentioned, our bottom 6 ( in particular our 3rd line) have been hammered by the opposition for years.
Make it stop.
Some combo of McLeod, RNH and Holloway can fix this.
I’m very pleased that despite the imperfections with this team, we can run a center trio of McDavid – Draisaitl – Nuge down the middle.
I think it’s easy for Oiler fans to take for granted how impressive it is. Especially when you think back to the days when the Oilers seemed to be looking for a true 1C every year, with Horcoff playing the role and the team pondering if Taylor Hall could convert to C (because he is Messier, you see).
Yes, and how high can McLeod potentially play in the line up?
We don’t take for granted. We just don’t see it deployed very much.
Try a full season of it ( 3C’s with their own line) and I think everyone will be happy.
Wheeler has Holloway and Bourgault late on his list of top 50 drafted prospects and Broberg with honourable mention.
https://theathletic.com/3415068/2022/07/25/nhl-prospects-rankings/?source=user_shared_article
Can’t wait to see how this turns out! Grabs popcorn!
This is exciting.
With superstar core in place, secondary leaders and contributors have now arrived, this youth movement is very exciting.
Yamo, Jesse, McLeod
Bouchard established, maybe star potential
Holloway, Borgault, wingers coming asap
Broberg has shown he will make it, ceiling TBD
Excellent.
Wheeler broke his rankings into tiers:
“This year’s ranking is divided into four tiers.
They are: 1-3, 4-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46+.
I debated swapping each of the five players I have ranked 46-50 with most of the 30 players I have listed as honourable mentions below.
Those players are largely interchangeable and I’d listen to arguments for each at the bottom of the list. Consider it a 45-80 tier.”
All Oiler prospects listed are in the 45-80 tier.
How are the other decent teams in the West (COL, STL, maybe CGY) doing in terms of prospect depth?
I am not sure what your point is. Should the Oilers be more like the Avs and have no prospects in the top 80? Or are you saying the Oilers prospects are too low on the list.
A copy and paste and a statement of fact, very inciteful. Thank you.
Colorado has been trading picks and prospects in an effort to win the Stanley Cup…and by gum…they did and are the odds on favourite to repeat.
Tampa Bay has done the same…and by gum…they won two.
Having your three best prospects in the 45-80 range is hardly a cause for celebration.
Interesting that Broberg did not make the top 50……
I don’t subscribe to the Athletic, was Zegras in the top 50?
He has Zegras graduating to the NHL so not on the list.
Regular NHLers are not on the list. For example, no Bouchard.
Two players in the top 50 for a team that just made the conference finals seems pretty good to me.
These prospect rankings are always funny about D, especially Oilers D.
Remember all the Bouchard snubs?
Personally, I would not be surprised if Broberg has the best career out of the three above mentioned prospects.
You couldn’t hold back the smile on Flames troll Craig Button’s face when he called Bouchard a bust a few years back.
Nuge as this team’s 3C just makes too much sense. He performs better when he’s playing C, and the lines and team do as well.
Nuge’s most common line mate combinations at even strength were (in order):
1.Yammo and Drai (245:36 or 28%)
2.Ryan and Foegele (128:23 or 14.7%)
3.Hyman and Yamo (105:22 or 12.1%)
2 and 3 both had higher SF% and CF% (both >50% compared to <50%). He also played wing with Drai and center on the other 2 lines.
He played almost exclusively on the wing the year before and significant time the year before that as well, so it’s harder to see how his performance changed from W to C.
Given that he performs very well in both special teams disciplines, playing him as 3C with PP and PK time just makes far too much sense to my admittedly pea-sized brain.
Sounds like a very versatile player. And by his own words he doesnt mind moving around, nor does he focus on his points, he focuses on the team winning.
The only thing getting in the way of Nuge at 3C is Ryan McLeod. McLeod is so fast and such a good puck carrier he is excellent in the center spot.
The Nuge is like a Swiss army knife. Good and dependable for a lot of different situations.
Although if love to see him score more goals his efforts during the playoffs showed us all how important he is to the team. He brings it when it matters.
I’d be curious to know what his stats and graphs would show from this past playoff campaign as compared to others. I’m sure it would show a remarkable difference and cast him in a better light.
I think that Woodcroft is going to utilize him so that he maximizes Nuge and his talents so it wouldn’t surprise me if he does eclipse 50 points this year.
You get teased with sledgehammer’s and get no big dark blue Nuge hammer bubbles.. So close.
Isn’t Nuge like a point per game player in the last 20+ playoff games?
He is if you include the Chicago series. 24GP 9-15-24. Good catch.
But will he ever score 50 playoff points?
JP lacks good hockey IQ. He has most of the tools to be a top 6 player, but unfortunately he lacks hockey IQ
He could easily be a 22-26 goal scorer if the game slowed down for him.
That’s why I think he needs to spend time away from 97 and 29. Those two process the game at incredible speeds. Put him with Foegele and McLeod on the third line and let him play a simple game. Get him to emulate Hyman, muscle the puck to the dangerous areas and good things will happen.
If Hyman and Kane’s style of play could somehow rub off on Jesse he’ll be a fine player for the next 10 years.
I’d hope JPs works on his shot before emulating Kane’s shot from anywhere mentality.
Haha, I’m getting flashbacks to Patrick O’Sullivan’s 09-10 season just thinking about JP’s impersonation of Kane. 191 muffins from the outside for a staggering 11 goals.
Golly, what a team. Dustin Penner and the 7 dwarves: Brule, Gagner, Potulny, Comrie, POS, Nilsson, Cogliano.
This – big men without hands are the source of many a coach and GM’s white hair.
1000 pucks a day, Jesse, all summer long!
That would probably need to be Holloway and McLeod (or Nuge) as Foegele’s cap space is probably needed to pay for Jesse and Kailer’s raises.
Yah, that’s fair. I try not get ahead of myself when projecting a line up to exclude players who haven’t been moved yet. Something is going to give and moving Foegele is certainly a reasonable path forward. But it hasn’t happened yet, so for me, he’s an Oiler until he isn’t.
Fair enough and, for me, I think the same about Jesse – he’s an Oiler until he isn’t.
He needs a montage sequence with Adam Oates.
Yet he is a very good defensive player. That does not compute for me.
To me it’s about aggressiveness
Scorers are hungry to score. They work on scoring be it shot, puck tricks the younger guys are using in games that would get you benched in the past. They drive hard when opportunities arise. They love scoring so much they finish. And often aren’t interested in playing two ways
Jesse is a good natured fun loving type. He works hard to contribute to the team. He is also prone to losing confidence and defers too much. He doesn’t love scoring like Laine does
Nuge is similar to me, if less jubilant than JP. He spoke last offseason or the previous about working on his shot so he could finish more, acknowledging he doesn’t do well enough at it, given the number of chances he got with the dynamic duo
I didn’t think great good on him. I thought why didn’t you do this years ago? It’s been an issue since junior, his weak 5v5 scoring for a guy with his talent
Nuge also lacks in first steps speed, so he has to play with his brain. I feel it’s why he isn’t a great winger being a smaller guy and not aggressive by nature, ends up on the outside and doesn’t have a scoring shot from distance
Nuge is a helpful guy, especially PP, but he needs to be put with guys that help him, to produce more 5v5, and he’s not been in that position for a while. Maybe now with young skill guys emerging
Jesse might get a bit better at finishing if he could settle. But despite many comments I’ve made supporting him, after this season I think he is at his norm
I get the thoughts about Nicushkin coming on late, I’m not sure JP has the same skill sets even if a similar build. He doesn’t have much dangle. He was deadly on big ice where he had room to gain the zone and time to shoot or be the late guy
I still think he’s enormously helpful. But like Cogliano was with the Oilers he doesn’t want to accept the role the team sees him best suited for
Cogs changed after the trade to more of a role player which he’s made a solid career from. It seems JP is in the same boat. He’s not cracking a top 6 on a team with depth the way he plays now, and I don’t see that he has the style to change much
It’s not that he’s not had the chance to display his offensive arsenal, he doesn’t have one that is NHL style
I have been away but return to more of the Jesse Puljujarvi saga. To me, math and performance stats are completely irrelevant.
This is about people. And particularly Jesse Puljujarvi.
Jesse, agent, players and the organization all know each other now. This call is coming from inside the org, it has nothing to do with what we can see from here. If Jesse was a great contributor, they would have paid him. If he is valuable, other teams would covet him. If he is proving to be a “me first” individual it leads to problems over time. These cracks are forming.
From my perspective as a fan, I did not see Jesse do anything special besides giving McDavid the puck at every opportunity. Then go stand in front of the net a pick up a few points. I did not see and defensive specialist in his game. Matter of fact I cannot think of a single blocked shot. Good forechecking, little hitting, even on board battles. To my eye, he played better away from McDavid when he did more, contributed more as opposed to deferring to the captain.
Problem with moving Jesse is everyone talks. His value around the league is not high. Jessie should be put on the third line and thats not as a slight, but as an effective deployment for him to carry the puck more and drive that line. Thats the answer. If he can’t see it well then yes, we are likely to follow this asset to disaster if not this summer, then as soon as opportunity arises. Jesse is driving his own ship.
Yup. Some of us have been saying this for a long time. Get him away from Mcdavid & Draisaitl and put him on a line with Nuge & Holloway. I guarantee it will work.
All these arguments to support Jesse are valid. There is only one reason to trade him.
If Jesse is truly a shitbird, then trade him. Because this is the only thing that trumps all the other observations and performance numbers.
If hes not a shitbird, then make it work.
If the player believed you to be correct he would have already signed by all reports.
Eric Francis on Twitter
Jonathan Huberdeau:
“I’m open to signing in Calgary long term.”
MacKenzie Weegar:
“Same here.”
It’s shocking the amount of Panther fans not upset that “don’t care” Johnny Hubs is no longer a Panther.
Him and Sutter seem like a match made in heaven.
Pretty standard. I would have been surprised if they said anything different.
“Open to signing in Calgary” means very little without the contracts they are willing to sign. Are they willing to sign if Calgary over pays them? It seems like a meaningless thing to say and something everyone outside of Lindros says when they join a new organization. It doesn’t strike me as a noteworthy comment. Why do you find it interesting enough to copy and paste here?
Also, how many points do you think Huberdeau finishes with next season? (He seems to stay pretty healthy, so assuming he plays ~80 games)
I posted it because it potentially has a direct impact on the Oilers.
Too early to say how successful Huberdeau will be because I don’t think their roster is close to set.
They have too many D and I expect they will move at least one for a forward.
And Kadri is still out there.
As is Mangiapane.
Yes…but they have the cap space to easily accommodate his new deal as well as one for Kylington who may be the one they move if they get some certainty on Weegar.
Of course they may also find a taker for the final year of Lucic which has only $1 million in cash left payable.
And they may also find a resolution to the Monahan situation either through a buyout if healthy or LTIR if not.
Plenty of balls in the air.
Maybe I didn’t phrase that question correctly. It is incredibly unlikely they’d say anything other than “We are excited to join this new organization, and are open to signing here long term.” Every player seems to say that when they go to a new team. Burning the bridge before you walk on it would be discussion worthy, but this is the opposite of that. I’m just trying to understand if there is something here I don’t know about.
What about this quote is discussion worthy?
Whatever. I ain’t afraid of no Flames.
It does, but you can read that two ways. They might re-sign and then again they might not. Too soon to know and in the meantime, Oilers have plenty of work to do so worrying about what happens in Calgary carries no more weight than normal.
You also take anything a hockey player says to the public at face value and get your hopes up.
Do I have to keep reminding you about Johnny Gaudreau and how you were his biggest fan cause you were convinced he would sign with Calgary despite the persistent rumours he would go back home?
Naive or….?
They can sign those deals literally any time, can they not?
Yes…will be interesting to see if this gets done before th season starts.
They can and, of course, I’m sure Treliving knows that getting those deals done in the off-season is a major priority.
I would presume that the flames will be in the playoff picture so moving them at the deadline for futures seems like a very tough thing for management to do but, of course, if they are unsigned at that time, not moving them comes with major risk, given the fresh wounds.
It seems generally players/management don’t want to negotiate in-season and, if these guys aren’t locked in prior to the season, that’s going to create some nerves for sure.
On the other hand, while Huburdeau certainly is elite, he’ll be 30 when than next contract kicks in – he will certainly want over $10MM and 7-8 years – is that a good contract?
Also, I am all for the flames or Avs giving Kadri a major overpay based on his clear one-season offensive outlier. I would be enthused for the flames to pay him $8M over 7 years.
Of course, flames don’t have the cap space to sign Kadri unless Monohan is going on LTIR for the season – I think that he may (although that isn’t the current intel, I don’t think).
Johnny Gaudreau (June ’22):
“same here!”
I keep reading things about JP’s problem being that he sees himself as top 6 and that maybe that’s not how he’s viewed by the Oilers, as well as things like “move Nuge to the 3rd line with Puljujarvi” and can’t help but wonder…am I looking at a different depth chart than everyone else?
JP is easily the best RW we have. I could understand not putting him on the top line if there’s an issue with style fit or wanting to get a different look, I could also see the argument for keeping him off the powerplay (which may be part of the issue from his camp), but I really don’t get how anyone can look at this team and come to the conclusion that there just isn’t a place for Jesse in the top 6
I agree. Again, I go back to pre-Christmas of last season and Jesse was crushing it. People here were hoping he may accept $5M on a longer term contract. Now it’s flush him for pocket change. I hope the Oilers are looking at things properly and not just the second half of the season.
Not sure if I agree that he is easily the best RW. Yamamoto’s numbers are very similar and he’s an effective penalty killer, too. He also reads the play in the offensive zone better than JP.
When I compare Puljujarvi with Laine who is a little bigger and slightly harder shot, it’s really interesting how their development has dictated their usage.
I actually viewed Puljujarvi at the draft as having the more accurate shot, a better defensive player capable of 2way play. Laine on the other hand, from my viewing, has always struggled defensively.
The use of Laine’s one timer has resulted in his 8M contract, while Puljujarvi injuries and covid aside, seems at present a better fit on the 3rd line, hence a 3M player.
Not to mention that, over the course of his recently completed 2nd contract, he played like 83% of this 5 on 5 ice with either McDavid or Leon (or both).
I would also posit that much of that 17% was (a) the beginning of the 2021 season where he started on the 3rd line before being moved up and (b) McDavid/Drai load-up times where he was still in the top 6 but on the 2nd line.
Truth be told, until the playoffs when he was moved down, Puljujarvi has essentially been in the top 6 over the entirety of his 2-year contract.
I don’t see why Jesse would need to concern himself with role and deployment – presuming he has any confidence in himself, he has proven to be a top 6 winger on this team and has been played as such.
I guess the only hesitation there would be Woodcroft as he was the one that ultimately moved him down during the playoffs and was on the bench during the McLellan year struggles for Jesse.
That appears to be the biggest issue. How Woodcroft views him.
Absolutely correct:)
I want to know how someone can look at that Vollman chart and go, “Puljujarvi is expendable.” We don’t know that he’ll ever be an elite scorer, but oh my what an effective player he is already.
I don’t believe that the majority think he’s expendable. I also don’t believe that everyone should form their opinion based on a Vollman graph.
We really need Nugent-Hopkins to put up 50pts for the first time, for the seventh time.
This is kind of nitpicky so my apologies but with 32 teams in the league now there are 192 top six players in the league which probably skews the other numbers down a tich.
I noticed that too. However, I assume that no one counts Arizona as a team!
3C and the Vollman Sledgehammer
The Oilers’ third line has been getting hammered every year since the lockout. Since McDavid’s arrival we’ve seen luminaries such as Lander, Caggiula, the offensively-challenged Ryan Strome, Jujhar Khaira, Gaetan Haas, and Derek Ryan try to fill that role. Aye Caramba!
When Nuge slotted into the role last year it finally plugged the hole in the boat. No, he didn’t push the river offensively, but by adding quality wingers (Hyman, & Kane), the Oilers were finally allowed to deploy the Centres-Three structure that led to Woodcroft’s Miracle down the stretch.
Ergo, I wouldn’t read too much into Nuge’s TOI against elites. They’ve needed someone to stabilize the bottom-six since forever and that’s a job well-suited to the crafty RNH.
Couldn’t agree more, exactly what I was thinking… well said
I have been banging this drum as well. 3C is where Nuge helps the team the most given the current personnel.
Also Nuge went 6-8-14 in 16 playoff games. Some clutch scoring, especially in the Calgary series where his line outperformed Calgary’s second unit.
It would be hard to argue his scoring rates are dropping off – we’re at peak Nuge!
Some clutch scoring, especially in the Calgary series where his line outperformed Calgary’s
secondfirst unit now.Fixed that for you!
No truer words have been spoken for a long time – the third line, and in particular, the 3C position have long been an issue for this org.
I think they had “an answer” in Strome but they flushed him without recognizing what he was doing (carrying around Lucic and a hip-issue Jesse) nor trying him at wing in the top 6.
In any event, I think the org now has two players they can plug in at 3C and have no worries – McLeod and Nuge.
Lets also not forget that Holloway is also a natural center (although it does seem like he’s destined for the wing at the pro level).
I am hoping that the angst over JP is avoided. If arbitration is favourable and all previous suppositions aside regarding his happiness and “fitting in-ness” etc, can be resolved his analytics suggest a very useful player indeed – one who should be signed. What is the potential market for Foegele and/or is there any conception around trading KY? Would there be better return potentially or do you feel he is of value beyond potential return?
I can’t remember if it was Friedman or Seravelli who noted last week something along the lines of “a league source advised that Foegele is not deemed overpaid in the market”.
With that said, given how valuable and expensive cap space is to acquire these days, I think it would be tough to trade him without salary back so a sweetener of some sort would need to be added.
$2.75MM of cap space for Foegele would be the return – no real warm body asset back.
Like Jesse, I think Kailer at his new cap hit has more value to the Oilers than a trade return at this point (and, also, from accounts, the org isn’t really looking at moving Kailer at all given his “popularity” among the stars).
The usage of that yellow highlighter is sublime.
I’m an artist.
Say that with a Boston Accent!
It rocked my world. When I hit the yellow highlighter part of the article, it was like a moment of pure clarity amidst the noise and bustle of existence. Thanks, LT.
Willy Legs finds a new home in tobacco country.
Cool – him and Bear might form their 3rd pairing … will be informative to track their results if that happens.
Bear has a better chance to play on their 3rd pair than Willie Legs. Their left side is Slavin, Skjei, and Gardiner if he’s healthy.
Willie goes from being on a one-way contract for last season back to a two-way deal.
If I recall correctly, he had a bad couple of games after the trade and then healthy scratched for the remainder of the season by the Habs.
He’s hanging on to a potential NHL career by a thread.
Here is hoping he can find some traction as a Cane but that’s not going to be an easy lineup to crack.
Byfield plummeting on wheelers list. And when you are plummeting on his list you are really plummeting as he’s incredibly stubborn on his rankings
LA’s rebuild got them two shots at the top of the draft where they selected Alex Turcotte and Byfield.
I still think QB makes it as a decent NHL centre, but neither of them appear to be a core piece you build a championship team around.
Good news for people who like bad news about division opponents.
Another example of why you don’t over-rate prospects versus legit NHL players … or put too much weight into prospect rankings.
I am old and my memory isn’t what it used to be but isn’t there a poster here who has been doing exactly that about LA’s future greatness? 😉
Not sure how you see this as a win for the Oilers.
LA has #12 and #15 on the list while the Oilers best prospects are ranked #48 and #49.
And, if you actually read Wheeler’s analysis of 19 year old Byfield, you would see why injury and his unique development path are factors in his ranking.
Not to mention D and C have much more value than W.
If only the Oilers could find a couple of decent centers ….
Are those players going to be able to come close to matching the skill of the Oilers top players? If you think so you’re delusional, so you probably think so.
Are LA’s top players – Doughty, Kopitar, Quick, etc going to maintain their historic performance while they wait for their prospect pipeline to mature? I wouldn’t bet on it .. you might, but your success rate at making predictions is awful.
So as LA’s top players drop off, you’re basically relying on Kevin Fiala, Danault, Byfield, and Brandt Clarke to match up with McDavid, Draisait, Kane, Nurse, and Bouchard. I’d say good luck with that.
He’ll never get tired of pushing that boulder up a giant mountain.
I seem to recall seeing an Oilers prospect named Jani Rita ranked 2nd in the world and was excited to see him star in the NHL.
F**k prospects.
Because I’m a division that the competition can run Mcdavid Drai and Nuge down the middle you are desperate to find someone who could replace a Kopitar
Mostly everyone said he’s a future stud. I don’t think he’ll be anything more than a 20 goal scorer with the hands he possesses.
Wait a minute…is this Pulujarvi or Byfield you’re referring to?