In over 40 years of drafting, the Edmonton Oilers have selected 18 players after the No. 99 selection who turned into NHL regulars.
Shaun Van Allen (No. 105 in 1987), Steve Smith (No. 111 in 1981), Miro Satan (No. 111 in 1993), Marc Habscheid (No. 113 in 1981), Tobias Rieder (No. 114 in 2011), Caleb Jones (No. 117 in 2015), Anatoli Semenov (No. 120 in 1989), Jason Chimera (No. 121 in 1997), Ethan Bear (No. 124 in 2015), Andy Moog (No. 132 in 1980), David Oliver (No. 144 in 1991), John Marino (No. 154 in 2015), Shjon Podein (No. 166 in 1988), Todd Ewen (No. 168 in 1984), Kelly Buchberger (No. 188 in 1985), Fernando Pisani (No. 195 in 1996), Kyle Brodziak (No. 214 in 2003) and Matthew Lombardi (No. 215 in 2000).
Can those players, and their success, inform us about the current group and their chances of making it?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- New Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: 5 times Oilers management mishandled Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: Skinner’s rise shows importance of homegrown goalies
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
THE DISTANT BELLS
If we want to chart a path for success among the skill forwards, where should we start? The first step is in acknowledging that that even bottom-six NHL forwards were skill players in junior. So, as strange as it may seem, a player like Tyler Tullio may have a better chance (or more chances) of making it in the NHL because his offense is impressive and he projects as a solid two-way winger.
How much offense did the scorers who became NHL scorers bring? Well, at 19 years old, Miro Satan owned a 59.1 NHLE based on Gabriel Desjardins equivalency numbers (they came along about five years after Satan’s AHL season). There is no Satan here.
Now, if you’re a fan of a player like Tullio, then the career path of Tobias Rieder is a nice comparable. At age 19, he was in the OHL and posted a 28.5 NHLE. He followed that up by scoring 28-20-48 in 64 AHL games (NHLE: 29.9) and began a solid NHL career (478 games) the following season. I can see Tullio posting strong AHL numbers, although matching Rieder might be a stretch for next season. There’s competition for playing time on right wing in Bakersfield, I think Xavier Bourgault, Seth Griffith and Raphael Lavoie will create some TOI issues for Tullio this year.
The biggest risk/reward forwards are Carter Savoie and Matvey Petrov. They are going to have to shoot the moon as offensive difference makers because the two-way acumen isn’t there. It’s also possible these men develop those skills in the minors, but there are more Rob Schremps than Mike Waltons in minor-league history.
The group on defense is small and difficult to project. Max Wanner is a tall, rangy fellow who will turn 20 in March and is in need of a “Brandon Davidson at 19” season (DB went 8-44-52 for the Regina Pats in 72 games, age 19) to confirm what scouts saw in his draft year. Luca Munzenberger was a top-100 pick, so the organization will have a longer track available. He’s also in college, and a shutdown type, so we’re going to have a helluva time tracking him. I would guess he’s on a path (ideally) that projects him into a Martin Marincin-William Lagesson career. That may not seem much, but fringe NHL defensemen are an important part of a team (ask the 2006 Buffalo Sabres).
Finally, in goal, two wildcards and we will just have to wait and see how things turn out. Expressing an opinion beyond “give him 30 games in the AHL this season” for Fanti and “let’s see him in the Allsvenskan or SHL this year” would be useless for me to write and you to read.
NHLE FOR NOTABLE OILERS PROSPECTS AGE 19 (2013+ drafts)
- LW Dylan Holloway 41.6
- LC Leon Draisaitl 41.0
- RW Xavier Bourgault 40.6
- RW Kailer Yamamoto 39.6
- RW Raphael Lavoie 34.7
- RD Evan Bouchard 31.2
- LW Tyler Benson 29.5
- LC Ryan McLeod 26.0
- RD Ethan Bear 25.9
- LD Caleb Jones 24.4
- LD Darnell Nurse 24.3
- LD Dmitri Samorukov 20.2
- LW Anton Slepyshev 14.7
- LD Philip Broberg 14.4
- RD John Marino 9.8
- LD William Lagesson 8.4
- LW Matej Blumel 5.8
- RD Mike Kesselring 4.7
- RD Vincent Desharnais 3.4
- LD Markus Niemelainen 2.6
STUART SKINNER
Scott Wheeler has his top 10 goalie prospects up and you’ll be interested. It is here.
Kane REALLY must have scared Tkachuk hey?
Edmonton is the Northernmost city in the NHL and the Panthers are the Southern most team in the NHL
The Legend of The Bison King Continues….at least a little while longer….
Instead of trading Foegele/Barrie/Puljujarvi/etc, why don’t the Oilers trade for an LTIR like Ben Bishop and keep their current roster intact for the upcoming season?
because that doesn’t create any actual cap space – it allows them to go over the cap by an additional amount but the exact same amount is added to their cap – its a net zero vis-a-vis cap space.
It still would allow them to carry more players. Right now they can exceed the cap by $6 million. If they add $4 million in LTIR then they can exceed the cap by $10 right?
That would allow them to sign Yamamoto and keep Foegele.
This is why Tampa traded for Seabrook right? Same thing.
Only in the post season.
Can’t go over the cap by more than 10% in the off season though. $8.5 M is tops if I understand correctly.
Any $2 million dollar players on LTIR? 🙂
That you could trade, say, Warren foegle’s cap for?
They could if they sent out money to do so.
Tampa sent out Tyler Johnson’s cap for the Seabrook hit. Then LTIR’d the Seabrook cap. Same thing as Vegas did sending Dadonov to Montreal for Webber.
It would allow them to go over the cap by $4MM more but it would also add $4MM to their cap hit – it would be a wash.
No, Tampa traded for Seabrook as they added to their already LTIR pool and they got rid of “real cap” – different situation.
If the Oilers moved out Foegele for the player then, yes, there would be some benefit there but the player himself, without cap out in connection, does not help.
Death March™ Congratulates all of the winners from this year’s Reg Season and Playoff epic.
i think that’s me for both! Mwaha champion of the universe!
Your prize must have been equally epic!!
Finally JP signs now everyone can stfu until we see him playing on the ice.
I don’t think that’s how this goes.
Let’s amend that let’s say I hope the panic subsides,
since we get a whole season of nHL regular season to assess his ability.
we get a whole season of nHL regular season to assess his ability.
It’s just great that JP has signed.
So much for the out of town rumors.
They weren’t just out of town, hunter. Our host here was pretty much convinced that he was gone. Gazzola broke the story.
LT still believes he will be traded. Setting the salary will make it easier. Until someone is traded to make room for everyone under the cap, there will still be angst about who is will be sacrificed to get compliant. (unless Yamamoto signs for $1.5 million (no chance) and MacLeod for a million (maybe))
I believe he could be, yes. It will depend on return.
Could we be tilting at windmills when moving Barrie for a draft choice and prospect would allow the team to sign Yamamoto and McLeod. There are other options! Barrie is high value because of his playoff performance and while there is risk in moving him, he is a diminishing asset.
I think Barrie stays. Foegele might be odd man out.
I think Holland’s view might be that the reasons he traded for and extended Foegele are less relevant now. A physical, decent skating, good sized winger who might be able to play up the line up. Neither Benson nor Perlini were sure bets to adequately fill that role. He had Hyman, but once he added Kane, who was not on anyone’s radar at the start of last season, the need for Foegele was somewhat reduced and the role for him might be more cheaply filled by Janmark this coming season.
Of course till he gets all the RFA’s signed, he would likely hold off on trading Foegele in the event that might not have been enough, which still could result in Barrie needing to go, or one of Jesse or Yamamoto.
I think this is exactly what Holland is doing and he has until September to sort it out if necessary.
LT- But isn’t Foegele close to Connor?
I could get on board with moving Barrie and for Mayfield (or similar) or acquiring such a d-man in a seperate transaction but moving Barrie without backfill on the defence isn’t practical, to me.
After Bouch, Ceci, Barrie, the next right shot D on the depth chart are Deharnais and Kesselring and Kemp.
I acknowledge that some d-man have played their offside.
Correct! Both Broberg and Samorukov have played right side!
and it would be quite something to go in to the season with Broberg and Samourkov as 3RD/4RD with Deharnais, Kesselring and Kemp behind them, wouldn’t it?
I can’t see Barrie being traded. I think Holland and the Coaching staff really like him and consider him part of the core for the next couple of years. His defensive game has improved leaps and bounds since Babcock hung him out to dry.
He had a good playoff run but has never excelled at the D part of defence! His offence can be replaced by Bouchard. He has value at this time which will quickly decrease due age and slower skating. Sell high!
Would you trade him for Kapanen or Kakko
I’d like to keep JP.
Me too
Sometimes we’re blinded by the light. Maybe just maybe Holland sees Jesse in the same light as you. Maybe maybe not. You just never know.
Manfred Mann was a underrated band.
Would Virtanen at a $900,000×1 be worth a roster spot?
I would not be in favor – based purely on his hockey career to this point.
We just got rid of Kassian. And Virtanen is infinitely worse than Kassian.
Look forward to the multi-year Puljujarvi extension with the Oilers on January 1.
The one year deal at a good price with him still under control also makes him very desirable for a trade in the near future.
I would prefer to keep the player and, presumably (based on performance), re-sign the U-25 player and use him in the lineup.
Prepare to be disappointed.
I may be.
In the interim, I would look forward to an argument in favor of keeping Foegele at $2.75MM X 2, UFA expiry over Puljujarvi at $3MM X 1, RFA expiry, for this season or any future season, unless a Puljujarvi trade would bring back a return that helps the team now.
The argument is pretty straight forward OP.
If Puljujarvi doesn’t want to be in Edmonton and only signed with the promise of a trade then he will be traded.
Nobody knows if this is the case but it is not just what happens on the ice that dictates trades and nobody has suggested that on ice performance favours keeping Foegele.
Nope, we don’t know that is the case or is not but its doesn’t line up with the various accounts. I don’t see Holland given any sort of trade assurances and there aren’t any indication that Jesse wouldn’t be fine coming back to Edmonton, in fact, there are accounts of the opposite.
Being “open to a trade” is not the same as wanting or demanding out nor not being fine with returning.
You asked for an argument and I provided one. Nobody knows what goes on in conversations between agents and GM’s.
And, of course, the idea that Puljujarvi doesn’t want to play in Edmonton has dominated the conversation on this board for the last month so I have no idea what you mean when you say there aren’t any indications that Jesse wouldn’t be fine coming back.
And, please, I beg you, no slicing of the discussion down to the level of “Jesse never said anything” nonsense.
I asked for an argument, you provided one and now I’m discussing it.
I stand by what I said – I haven’t heard any actual accounts that Jesse wants out of the organization. That’s not to say that he wouldn’t be open to a trade one came about but that does not equate to “wanting or demanding out” or not being happy returning.
Yes, “if Puljujarvi doesn’t want to be in Edmonton”, that is something but I simply don’t think that’s the case based on the actual information we have (from those with access to the players, the agents, the managers)…..
https://oilersnation.com/2022/06/29/tom-gazzola-jesse-puljujarvi-and-edmonton-oilers-heading-towards-a-split/
Yes, I listen to every episode of the OilStream, including that episode, and I read Tyler’s piece at the time.
Tommy saying he thinks that they are heading for a split and it may be mutual does not equate to Jesse asking or demanding or not being amenable to a return.
I have still not read or heard anything substantive that cites anything more to being amenable to a trade which I have provided my opinion on what I think that does and does not mean.
Yeah, I know. You still think Klefbom might be at TC in September too because he has never said he won’t.
As Jack Nicholson famously said “You Can’t Handle The Truth”
I have no idea what you think that means.
It was a attempt of humor not directed to yourself.
Ah, my apologies. I understand now.
Sorry Reja his points are valid and attacking his person is a weak response!
I’m not certain, but I think Reja is commiserating.
Very good point! His trade value has gone up. I hope he stays but I see your point as completely valid.
I hope he stays too. I just think we don’t know yet.
Why would Jesse and his agent who’s been a difficult cat to begin with sign a team friendly 1year deal without strings attached? If Jesse was staying you would think his agent would holdout or squeeze a 2 year deal that takes him to free agency. If this was the case both Holland and Jesse would be happy with a 2 year deal. So I ask again why only a 1 year very tradeable contract was signed by Jesse and his agent?
Well, OP has assured us that Holland wouldn’t give out any sort of trade assurance so we can eliminate that option even though that would be a logical conclusion. Holland has a lot of patience, though, so we wait to find out what his plan is.
Well that’s not the case – I have stated my opinion on the matter given what I know of Holland and how he operates. I can’t assure you of anything Holland will or will not do but I can certainly provide my opinion based on the information I have.
I’ve been watching lots of Columbo lately so maybe I’m looking for clues that aren’t so obvious.
Oh, excuse me, SIR, just one more thing…..
I’m more of a Matlock kind of guy. 😉
Well, Jesse filed for arb so the team would get to choose the term in arbitration, 1 or 2 years. Jesse had zero control over the term after filing.
Considering only 1 of the 40 plus arb filings over the last two years actually had an arb award, the parties coming to an agreement prior to the hearing seems like the normal course.
I’m not sure Holland is a “strings attached” transaction type guy – doesn’t really seem like him, to me.
If he signs for 2 years it walks him to free agency why sign for 1?
because the org wouldn’t sign a 2-year deal, for that exact reason and they had the hammer on term due to Jesse’s being the party to file.
Brad walked Keith Tkachuk to free agency then on his final year Brad managed to get a haul out of Florida.
Yes, and, if Jesse had scored 115 points and 40 plus goals and said that he was not going to sign long-term ever, then Holland would likely trade him for a haul.
Of course, he has not had that production and he has not made that statement.
oops there now – 1 year?
I gotta say I am a little worried about our FW prospects getting sufficient quality playing time in Bakersfield this year.
Seemed to me, under Chaulk, vets were favoured.
To me the whole point of having a farm team is to develop prospects. Who cares if Seth Griffith and 35 year old Adam Cracknell would have les us to a Championship.
Some say, well it’s good experience for the prospects to be in the playoffs. But I would say, not if they don’t play.
I seem to be hearing some of the same things that I used to hear back in the Springfield Falcon/Oklahoma days. Things like Gretzky saying the prospects have to earn their playing time. Well if there isn’t recognition of development time needed and afforded we can write off a guy like Lavoie or Savoie or other non first round picks from ever making the bigs.
Why? Because the team places vets in their way and says you have to beat out this guy.
The AHL is a development league.
I will withhold judgment on Chaulk.
He took over mid-season. There were a ton of injuries and call-ups.
I am sure he was just in survival mode.
The usage of Konavalov was not great from a development point of view and now he’s gone.
why?
because we HAD to play Skinner on back to backs and all the time because we HAD to win, not develop.
Not true as his main responsibility was to have Skinner ready for the Oilers if needed!
Woody did the same thing – he relied on Malone and Cracknell and Esposito and Griffith, etc., etc.
Holloway saw alot of time with Hamblin, Esposito, etc., even before Woody moved up.
I’m not sure Maksimov ever got a PP1 shift, let alone in the Ovie spot (where scored a ton of goals in junior).
McLeod played 3/4LW for his first season.
Woody essentially ran a “top 9” similar to how Chaulk did.
I think Bourgault will get legit top 6 and PP time but the likes of Savoie, Tulio, Engras, Philp, etc. will sure be battling for top 6 ice.
I could see a guy like Savoie not getting the playing time he needs given his weaknesses. But that guy has an NHL shot and goal scoring ability, just a natural scorer. It’s a real impressive skill set. Gotta work with the guy.
I guess what I am trying to emphasize is that the AHL is not the NHL. The AHL, for me, is there solely to develop players for the NHL.
Anyone who is drafted in the 3rd round and beyond, heck even first rounders all have warts and things to work on. Don’t disqualify them from playing because they aren’t as rounded as the 29 year olds on the team.
The coaches job isn’t to decide who isn’t good enough but to help the player become an Oiler. That’s their job, imo.
Just kinda hearing things recently that have rung alarm bells in my memory of a time when we didn’t develop prospects.
If a young player is getting overwhelmed, I don’t think it’s beneficial to run him out for 20 minutes. Focus on fewer highly effective shifts and build from there. When they are ready they edge out the Malone’s with no objections. That to me is the concept of having veteran AHL depth.
And yes, they don’t absolutely have to win, but getting slaughtered doesn’t help development much in my opinion, you never have the puck anyways if it’s going that bad.
No I don’t want them overwhelmed or slaughtered or never having the puck either. If that is their level they should be in the ECHL.
I’m not so much talking 20 minutes a night, I’m more concerned about not being healthy scratched or getting 4th line minutes so Tim Schaller can get his reps in.
I don’t disagree with any of this but just note that the way Chaulk handled the deployment was very similar to how Woody did and Woody was lauded for his time in the AHL and developing prospects.
I don’t think we are going to see a top six of Bourgault, Tulio, Savoie, Philp, etc. Some of these guys will be fighting for 3rd line time, I presume.
Not saying that I necessarily agree but Woody also made the higher end prospects “earn it”.
Even dating back to Yamamoto – he wasn’t with the high end guys in 2019.
It’s a good point, thank you.
Is the Puljujarvi signing real? Asking because nothing on the Oilers web site.
It’s on TSN
Oddly enough, the official Oilers NHL website is a poor source for Oilers news.
You just have to be willing to wait. Potentially day(s)
They don’t want to update their site yet because they are waiting for the trade to happen and write about both at once.
Just kidding.
It’s in Cap Friendly now.
Signing news is generally broken well before its made official be the team – often a day (if not more) prior to the team advising.
I saw the article before I left for the gym this morning but thought I’d save it for later not anticipating a mention of Stu…..
Its great to see his name but, frankly, unless one is a “goalie expert”, I’ve got to imagine its really tough for these guys to rank goalie prospects with any sort of authority – no disrespect to Wheeler and the great work he does.
Even if one is a goalie expert, you need to watch a ton of isolation footage of a goalie in order to form a fair evaluation. Not just “watching the game and watching the goalie,” you need to be able to zoom in on things like edgework and body language and try to infer from his body language what his hockey iq is like and lots of other subtleties. I’m a lay expert at best though so take that with a grain of salt.
LT, you are probably right on Fanti but I will note that, from accounts, there was quite a bit of interest in signing this guy and, also, a couple reports had him as not far from NHL ready. Of course, no lock to “make it”, and there will likely be some transition to pro hockey issues, but I think he’s a player of note and I look for him to run with some starts at the AHL level.
They’ll need to keep Pickard “ready” but the key is the development of the potential future Oiler – at least to me.
Absolutely
They’ll break your heart, OP. When you like them and your team does too, it’s Steve Passmore. When it’s just a guy who passes through, it’s Tim Thomas. When your college grad looks ready, he rips his groin from Guam to the North Sea.
I wonder if the Oilers take Cam Ward at 31 if Carolina doesn’t at 25. Were the Oilers always targeting Jeff Drouin-Deslauries, that’s the 64 thousand dollar question for me.
He would have been a player of interest for sure.
I’ve got my eye on Warner – I think his splits show some real development in Moose Jaw last season and he even had an offensive pop late in the year and during the playoffs. I think he’ll be a top pairing and all-situations guy this season. Years away from the NHL, of course, but I think there is a player there.
Munzenburger as well – I really liked his game at the World Juniors – showed much more confidence and skill with the puck than I anticipated. Of course, it was a cluster of a season at Vermont – a rookie D, new to the continent, on a terrible team – that’s a tough gig.
It will be fun to keep appraised if Jay’s brother’s team in Vermont as, in addition to Munzenburger, newly drafted Joel Maatta will be joining the program.
Wow, I was pretty close with my earlier prediction of 2.9M.
There is definitely going to be a trade in the next few days.
They are going to need to move some money out – I think it’ll be Foegele but you never know,
With that said, it doesn’t necessarily need to be in the next few days – they can go over the cap by 10% in the off-season so there is some time to get the three guys signed and then figure it out.
That is true.
I hope it is Foegele. Inferior player to Yamo and JP. Also, his role was diminished under Woody.
I mentioned this a few weeks back but it may have got lost during the free agent frenzy week but, at development camp, Petrov confirmed he’s heading back to North Bay. It may not be out of the question to get a few AHL games before being re-assigned to the AHL but he’s going back to junior.
Also, of note, for those that heard Petrov last year after being drafted, holy hell, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a prospect improve his English so much over a calendar year – wow!
I think that Tulio is one of those guys, like Savoie, that is a “real prospect” but will an uneven, up and down season, as a rookie pro in the AHL.
The AHL is a tough year for first year pros that “aren’t elite prospects” and it often takes considerable time to gain traction in that league.
Look at Ralf Lavoie, a higher rated, higher skill, higher pedigree and, frankly, bigger, prospect than the other two. Ryan McLeod took time to gain traction. Krill Maksimov, who one could compare to Tulio and Savoie as far as “skill” and “likelihood to make it” never really gained traction – and he had a very good 2-way game and killed penalties from day 1 as a Condor.
I do think that Tulio’s “work ethic” and “tenacious skill set” will be something the coach’s like and he’ll get reps even during struggles.
Here is hoping that Savoie can really up his compete level on and off the ice. I think he did that last off-season and this past season for Denver but the AHL is a whole other level.
Full disclosure- I wrote my bit about prospects playing time before reading these few posts of yours on AHL players
Nice to see Jesse signed. Next step is to see whether he stays with the team (here’s hoping).
So assuming he does remain, and Yamamoto signs for $3M as well (and McLeod for $1M), where are we at?
If Holland is willing to run a man short of a full 23 man (13F/7D or 12F/8D), then Foegele moving out can work as a solution.
That would leave about $1.2M for the final addition (plus any buffer for call-ups, though I don’t know if a buffer is useful if it’s not enough to call up a whole player..).
It would look something like this:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Nuge-Draisaitl-Hyman
Janmark-McLeod-Puljujarvi
Holloway-Shore-Ryan
xxx
/
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
Koekkoek (or Samorukov/Niemalainen/Desharnais/other)
/
Campbell
Skinner
As I said, up to $1.2M for one final addition (Larsson for 4C maybe?).
Looks pretty good to me. We’ll see if this is how things end up going.
The likes of Sammy over Koekkoek saves a couple hundred grand – seems small but it may be required (and Sammy should stick in any event).
It’s $150k, and I do hope Samorukov makes the team. He does need to perform at camp though, and be right with the others (at minimum) to get the nod.
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Draisaitl-Kessel
Holloway-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Janmark-McLeod-Ryan
xxx
I have come to accept that the defence and goal will be as you have posted. Not my first choice but who ever gets their first choice in a 32 team league.
Yamo at $2,850,000, Kessel at $1,250,000 and xxx at $800,000.
Foegele traded for picks or prospect and Kessel gets one more kick at the can until Bourgault is ready. I think Draisaitl and Hyman can carry Kessel for the regular season and expect the Borg to start slotting in by February. Hardly perfect but I ran out of money for 2RW. It comes in at $82,139,333
I’m not against this lineup including Kessel but I would note that (a) Hyman was below 50% goals at 5 on 5 last season and (b) Hyman/Leon without McDavid were also below 50% goals last season.
Add Kessel to that duo – how bad might it leak?
Also, its tough to see Kailer come in less than Jesse given he had 20 goals and played on the PK. I’m not saying that I personally think he’s more valuable but the facts are there.
Also, its tough to see Kailer come in less than Jesse given he had 20 goals and played on the PK. I’m not saying that I personally think he’s more valuable but the facts are there.
===================
That is just one fact amongst many. I guess we’ll know soon enough.
True.
On a further note, many of the facts that go in Jesse’s favor are not admissible in arbitration – the goals and PK deployment are.
Now, he’s likely to sign outside of arbitration but, of course, I would think the strength of the arb case if a factor in straight negotiations.
I like it.
Kessel obviously isn’t ideal, but he did have 52 points last season. And 2 guys on my 3rd line are lurking on your 4th as cover (and I know you’re happy to get Nuge at 3C, I have no objections).
That forward group is deeper than it looks, if you know what I mean.
I just like the idea of Nuge at 3C and Hyman at 2LW with McLeod honing his abilities as a centre while young. The rest of it was fitting pieces into the puzzle. And, yeah, Kessel is a gamble.
Yeah, having Nuge at 3C is a personal choice 😉
I don’t mind it at all though, and having McLeod on the 4th line is great depth.
I actually think Kessel is a great bet if he’s that kind of cheap. Still, it’s clearly good to have the fall back option be “what the lineup would have looked like if he hadn’t signed”.
Barely a risk at all. And I do think there’s very real upside there (did I mention he scored 52 points last year? and is the #3 scoring UFA left on the market?).
Yup. Given the money has run out I like the bet but if there is an alternative I am open to it.
I just prefer to play guys where they are best suited and for me these are the positions that maximize Hyman, Nuge & McLeod’s contributions best.
Yes, fair.
We’ve been hearing about Hyman on LW vs RW again lately. Is there evidence for a gap there? I don’t recall if he’s said he prefers LW?
If the main evidence is statistical, I strongly suspect it’s biased by his TOI with Marner in TO, and as McDavid’s LW with the Oilers.
Could be. Now that you phrase it like that I realize I have been basing that on what I see and read but really have never seen him on RW enough to know if it is true or not.
Pretty sure about Nuge though. I like him at 3C much better than on the wing and I want McLeod to continue to develop at centre for down the road. Easier to move him to wing later on than back to centre after playing on the wing.
I really don’t know about Hyman either. I just don’t recall seeing or reading anything compelling that suggested LW>RW.
Agreed about Nuge and McLeod as centres. Adding a plausible top 6 type makes it look possible.
I should add I suppose, this all presumes Holland is willing to run with a 22 man roster and <500k in cap space. More of the nice looking things disappear if he wants more injury cover than that.
That would mean that he’s got one extra forward and one extra D and not even enough cap space to call up a single player as an injury or illness replacement without moving someone off the roster or placing on LTIR.
It would also be logistically easier if the Oilers AHL team was located locally…….
Yes OP, I know.
Those are the exact reasons I’ve been saying for the last month or so that trading ONLY Foegele likely isn’t enough to bring back Puljujarvi + Yamamoto + McLeod.
I just got carried away tonight since it does seem like a really nice solution.
Bison King signs for 3 million. Everyone can now take a deep breath and relax.
That’s a good price. So now all these conspiracy theories can drop dead.
Haha you sound like you’re new to the internet 🙂 “Conspiracy theory whack-a-mole” is the hot new game of 2022.
Seems to me (since 2019 on), the difference between “conspiracy theory” & “reality” is only about 18 months. 😉 LMFAO!
More like 3 months. 😉
The gap has been getting shorter every year. . .
Great stuff.
He’ll be value for that cap hit this season and it’s great to avoid the hearing.
One year is good as 2-years walks him to UFA status which is less than ideal.
Yamo should come in around the same unless he signs for more term.
Now, move Foegele out for cap, not Jesse.
There is no world where Foegele is more value at $2.75M than Jesse is at $3M (and still an RFA on expiry).
LW: Kane, Nuge/McLeod, Hyman, Foegele, Janmark, Holloway, Benson, Shore
RW: Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Ryan, Griffith
Hyman is better on the left side.
Foegele out is the move. Jesse out is NOT the move.
Yeah, well Vancouver would have signed him for less, the Flames have more depth at Left Bison, and cap space wins more games than Finnish wingers.
Did I miss anything?
Relax? This is Oilerland haha. Even the TSN guys think this means he’s going to be traded now that its cost certain.
He might be … but they’ll try to move Foegele out first.
Seems to me that if there were an acceptable Foegele trade out there it probably would have happened by now.
I think they want to make sure Jesse and Yamo sign … wouldn’t be surprised if a deal to flip Foegele hasn’t already been hashed out.
An acceptable trade would be no return and simply the cap space gained – even a small sweetener, if necessary (small).
Jesse would, of course, return a positive asset but, from accounts, nothing close to current value and, for me, given the presumed return its not enough to lose Jesse over Foegele.
Trading Jesse at $3MM and keeping Foegele at $2.75MM just doesn’t make any reasonable sense – at least to me.
At his point production (14-22-36, +22 in 65Gms) that’s pretty good value. In contrast, Yams went 20-21-41, -1 in 81 games. So really, based on these numbers Yams should be around the $2.5M mark if it’s a 1 year deal. Of course, intangibles and such will probably make his deal similar to JP.
I wonder if any team gives Jake Virtanen a contract this up coming season?
You might have mentioned he was found not guilty.
I guess he assumes people read the post below before he posted. You know, like normal people, unlike you.
Does it matter? He is notorious for showing up to camp out of shape and has a reputation for partying/drinking too much. Not exactly the professionalism an NHL team is looking for.
Perfect fit for the Flames.
ZING!
Correct me if I’m wrong. The Oilers scored over 300 goals the first 10 seasons in the NHL they haven’t achieved this since 89-90 so going on 33 years. I can see the Oilers easily hitting 300 + more in the range of 320-325. I believe this year will be a coming out party for this storied franchise. Everybody gets in the act with eight 20 Goal campaigns compared to 5 last year.
I agree with this. Its why you’ll end up with JP, Yamo and McLeod all signing. You can see the potential.
Elite offensive teams since the 1970s have over seven 20 goal scorers. Assuming health, for next year – Drai, McD, Kane, Hyman, Nuge, Yamo, JP, Bouch… nothing too crazy optimistic in that.
The funner idea is if three of them can contend for 50.. that is an exceptionally rare feat. Only two teams have ever seen that, 83-84 and 85-86 Oilers. Three is very optimistic, two isn’t that excessive at all though.
There will be goals.
Only 9 teams have scored more than 300 goals in a single season since 1995-96, and 5 of those occurred last season and 2 were in 05/06. Scoring per game across the league jumped significantly last season up to 2.92 goals per game per team, tying 05/06 right after the full season lock, for the highest number since 95/96.
That the Oilers haven’t scored 300 since 89/90 (11 season in a row) is not at all surprising. I think they have a good chance of getting there this season. They got within 15 last season.
I think we see the Refs finally giving Leon and Connor the respect they deserve on drawing penalties. This will result in more calls then Goals.
Dare to dream, Reja. Dare to dream.
Heard from a buddy close in the Flames Athletic room that Gaudreau and Tkachuck didn’t think they could beat the McDavid and Draisatl Oilers for the foreseeable future in the playoffs.
don’t know if I believe that but funny if there’s some truth to that.
Would be nice to believe.
But then Gaudreau goes to Columbus because he can’t win in Calgary? Doesn’t seem terribly likely.
Columbus has less then zero pressure to ever beat McDavid.
Huge expectation difference.
Jake Virtanen found bit guilty in the sexual assault case.
Spell checker?
not guilty
Jake Virtanen found “not guilty”
I like OP’s original legalese, probably more accurate!
A bit guilty. That’s funny not withstanding the subject matter.
Sorry, that was on the phone and a bad typo.
Of course, “NOT guilty”.
Sorry.
No apology needed. We all knew it was a typo.
“The principle of charity” states that one should always try to interpret an argument as charitably as is reasonable. If this was widely taught our political discourse would be much less toxic.
Guessing if you hear one of our RFAs signing the other two will follow very soon
McLeod will probably get done in short order after the Puljujarvi/Yamamoto deals are done (and any subsequent cap structuring moves are taken care of).
I know many want to “go long” on McLeod, and I’m not against that, but I don’t see it happening.
I mean, that would increase McLeod’s projected cap hit by like triple (if there is any chance that McLeod will sign for term) and there just isn’t room for it.
I don’t think the bridge risk is really all that high with this player. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’ll be a very valuable 3C and middle six winger that plays all game states but, ultimately, he’s never going to pop too big offensively. At the end the day, points are what gets paid and I don’t think we are at risk of a massive offensive production pop and a $4MM demand any time soon.
This player will have great value in his 2-way game, his all situations game, his versatility and his exit/transition/entry game even without putting up big points.
He’ll be great value even with his 2nd contract being a short term bridge.
Surely if they add a #7 defenceman it has to be someone who brings an element lacking in the top 6, and that is size and physicality.
Same with adding a depth forward option. The forth line is still odds and ends, with lots to choose from. We could use a bit of a menace on that fourth line or we will end up with Malone again.
#80 is going to be the “number seven” to start but will get himself into the lineup regularly much faster than expected.
His game is too unique and useful to keep him out. Especially against divisional opponents.
I like him. I like his size, obviously, combined with his skating. Good package. I like his physical play as long as his timing doesn’t take him out of the play. I like his willingness to be tough in front of the net. However Imo his play with the puck really needs to improve for him to be an NHLer. I would love it if he gets there.
He might get a few games but will have to vastly improve his defensive play if he wants to be a regular player. That goal differential last year was….not good.
I would suggest that the player wears #58.
Samorukov isn’t the “hunter” that Niemo is but he’s the better hockey player, with the better skill-set – better skater, better puck mover, better shot, etc., etc.
He is also a big and aggressive defender and a tenacious defender of the zone entry.
That player is likely Dimitri Samorukov.
I know that Koekkoek is in the mix but keeping Sammy over Keokkoek saves a couple hundred grand which will help.
Personally, I would be fine if they signed Rusty to a one-year league min deal and went with 8D (Sammy/Rusty) and 13F to start the year.
So when JP, Yamo and Mcleod come in just shy of $7 million combined where do we direct our rage and anger to next?
Asking for a friend cause when these three contracts come in at way less than the bizarre prices being floated it’ll cause some consternation. Folks will be confused at how a GM could have such a… “good” offseason by pretty much any measure.
And that’s before the Bouchard 5x$5.75 extension is signed and blows the doors off the joint haha.
Where do we direct our rage to next, you ask?
Clouds. We yell at clouds. Just like any good codger who is worthy of the onion on his belt…
Back to Nurse. The path has been well trodden without the contract actually starting yet so enjoy that already dead horse for the next 8 years. Call it the Horcontract effect.
Conveniently there is already an article about how he has one of the “10 worst contracts” in the NHL.
The article is being miss-quoted a bit though. I recommend reading it through, more nuance than we’ve come to expect.
It will never be a Value contract but it can be a contract of value to the Oilers. Wouldn’t take much either.
I move Fogs n PJ to sign Ryan M to 8y value contract today.
Has anyone heard where Benson is training or any details?
Yah, he’s training at the “Go Used Car Supercentre” on the Yellowhead Hwy for the next step in his career.
I kid. I have nothing useful to contribute and best of luck to him to take a significant step forward as a useful NHLer.
Oilers have added former NHL’er Mark Stuart to the coaching staff.
Nice add , He was a no nonsense type of defender .
I think the significance of this move got lost a little in the Puljujarvi news earlier today. I have no idea regarding Stuart’s coaching skills – although I trust Woodcroft’s judgment on this – but I really like the attention to detail that DNB outlines below that this hiring reflects. Could we be becoming one of the smart teams?
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
Former NHL defenceman Mark Stuart has been added to the Oilers coaching staff as an assistant. Stuart worked as a volunteer assistant on Todd Woodcroft’s staff at the University of Vermont in 2020. The plan is for Stuart to be an eye in the sky.
Stuart will likely come on bench for the third period. He’ll be responsible for faceoff coverages and skill development of depth players. Coach Jay Woodcroft wanted an ex-NHLer with recent playing experience for the role. Stuart’s 673-game career ended in 2017.
it’s interesting hey that one who wasn’t considered a skill player will be in skill development.
let’s hope the reasons behind the axiom, “those who can’t, teach” are applicable here
Yeah, I have no idea although Woodcroft’s brother undoubtedly had input. I just like the idea that they are zeroing in specific areas and hiring to try and improve there.
for sure, me too
Also,
1) Stuart was a 1st round pick
2) perhaps the skill they’re trying to teach the depth players isn’t ‘how to pick up 80 assists in a season’
When you’re feeling it ‘the game slows down’… now take the opposite of that and we have JP. He’s having trouble processing the game right now and it’s all due to confidence IMO.
Whether he/his agent agrees or not, I think his best option is to anchor a 3rd/4th line with McCleod. Ryan is emerging and has some offensive skill, Jesse and he could complement each other nicely against 3rd/4th lines. Keep him there all season, get some chemistry, some confidence, and some solid footing for tapping into his draft potential.
I believe that JP’s agent believes that he and JP have shown a great amount of patience up this point in time.
They may believe the time for a patient approach is over.
Agents are very influential; Does JP have free agency?
Agency is the sense of control that you feel in your life, your capacity to influence your own thoughts and behavior, and have faith in your ability to handle a wide range of tasks and situations. Your sense of agency helps you to be psychologically stable, yet flexible in the face of conflict or change.
You’re funnier when you’re Randle.
On the other hand , the Oilers have shown a lot of patience up to this point in time . They may believe the time for patients approach is over
Im not sure I understand where you are going with this? They were patiently waiting for recognition? To get paid? Guarantees? Serious question.
Permanent top 6 role. And Cash. Dude has played for the Oilers for 5 yrs now, total NHL pay $4,530,442.
He has been in an, essentially, exclusive top 6 role since his return from Europe.
He was moved down during the playoffs which his struggles became a bit too much (and the games so important) – no player is immune to that.
Patience with what?
Jesse has played over 80% of his TOI with McDavid and/or Drai over the last two years.
I can argue that he could be used more on the PP but Jesse has been used almost exclusively as a top 6 winger since he returned from Europe.
Gregor yesterday mentioning that he believes Jesse and the Oilers are only about $400K or so apart. There isn’t a big gap here.
I wonder if the NHLPA is encouraging Jesse to go through the entire arb process?
If that’s the case , Puljujarvi should consider what’s in his best interest and not be pushed into something he might regret . He does have a brain . Doesn’t he ?
I predict JP signs today for 2.9M and plays the entire season with the Oilers.
They could still trade him and sign a guy like Evan Rodrigues and still be in a good place .
$400k tells us something.
Initial Team offer $2.5m ?
JP Agent initial ask $3.3m ?
After negotiation the range is down to $2.7m – $3.1m
The interested GM’s were perhaps offering a 2nd round pick, but they all also wanted a cost controlled player, no surprises.
Imo…. a signed JP offers some cost certainty.
We may be about to find out JP’s true value in the marketplace.
Does JP at $2.9m return more than a 2nd round pick?
If it does not, I can see JP playing on a line with RNH
JP at $2.9m was a dream scenario one year ago.
400K tells us the parties are likely to reach an agreement.
That’s true, but if we apply that same number to Yamamoto, the gap between $2.8M and $3.2M is a big one for the team.
$2.8M means you can make things work by offloading Foegele.
$3.2M means a second or different shoe needs to drop.
Ryan MacLeod is more valuable to the roster that either of Puljujarvi or Yamamoto . They should lock him up and trade both wingers . LOL .
I seriously wonder….
There has to be an “I want to be an Oiler” price
vs.
An “I want to play elsewhere price”…. No?
What’s the difference ?
vs.
(versus: as opposed to; in contrast to.)
😉
Either way the cost needs to be efficient .
Probably means we don’t have the 400k to give him
I thought something was up when I read somewhere that the NHLPA wanted JP to be the first player to go through arbitration. Maybe there’s something to this. If so, we’ll never know unless someone involved is unprofessional and blabs details.
Jesse’s signing was announced shortly after OP posted this. So we now do know that Jesse wasn’t set on going all the way through the process, either on his own or based on the encouragement of the NHLPA. Another unfounded rumour shot down.
“Unfounded rumour” – geezus.
It was a simple wonderance not based on anything solid or concrete – which was very clear from the post.
Good Grief.
Can you read? The post was a response to Keeper_13, not you. I was referring to his sentence that specifically said, “I read somewhere that the NHLPA wanted JP…” That was the “Unfounded Rumour” not your comment. Geezus / Good Grief – no wonder people get annoyed with you – because you can be annoying!
The response cited my post about wondering if the NHLPA is encouraging the player, which you spoke to and called “another unfounded rumour”.
Perhaps if you were clearer in your post and its intent, you wouldn’t get annoyed based on further responses – in particular in light if your increasing adversarial tone with me over the last while.
I would ask that you refrain from condescending responses/question and personal insults – I find it…… annoying.
“In over 40 years of drafting, the Edmonton Oilers have selected 18 players after the No. 99 selection who turned into NHL regulars.”
So an average of one player every other year. And half of these players are “replacement” level talent.
Is this efficient?
With the way the league is trending due to cap restrictions, replacement level players are becoming available at lower and lower costs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs NHL forward roster is populated with 8 players who make an average of $1m each. NONE of them drafted by Toronto.
#AdaptOrDie
Though I don’t disagree with you, the leafs are not the example I would use to make that point.
They haven’t been able to get past the first round and they were forced into this approach because of Dubas’ signings and over-promises.
Being cheap with players was the Harold Ballard way, not the MLSE approach.
The Leafs are heralded around here as having one of the best Analytics teams in the world.
With the GM championing the cause.
They are a perfect frame of reference imo.
I’ve liked most of what Kyle Dubas has done in his tenure as the GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs…..*spits*
Lol. Love the spitting reference.
Being heralded by the fans or pundits doesn’t mean squat. The proof is in the pudding and the teams he’s assembled haven’t won when its counted. And that’s the ruler by which everything is measured.
His analytics dept have shit the bed hard on quite a few very expensive bets. If that gets the credit for being one of the best in the world…. I wouldn’t touch them with a teen foot pole.
For me, the problem with the whole “win when it counts” thing in the NHL is that the games that matter the most often have the worst officiating. For me, blaming someone for losing a managed game is not reasonable, and I also think pretending the games are not being managed is just that – a pretense.
Only some folks herald what the Leafs do, those that claim failures are wins.
They can’t seem to find the pulse on a winning formula and the players that contribute to it.
I believe in analytics, I also believe the Leafs analytics teams needs an analytics team.
From a win-loss record (Matthews olaying/not playing) to a team building functionality. They would of been better off selling Matthews and giving contracts to Hyman, Ceci, and Campbell. Their amazing analytics should of identified the issues in signing Tavares the way they did but here we are.. Resorting to signing half a roster of plugs and celebrating it.
Matthews is a beast, one of the best in the league, he’s worth every penny and more.
The Tavares contract is the original sin of Dubas. Top dollar paid to a guy who’s production would leave him 4th on the team immediately in offensive output while also ranking your star RFAs as 2nd concern. That contract had negative value the second it was signed and its played out exactly that way. The Leafs did not need $11 million committed to a forward lineup that at the time had all of – Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen, Hyman, Kadri and Johnsson. Forward was an undeniable position of strength. They needed defense, they have always needed defense.
Part of the Leaf’s analytics blind spot is on defense and what makes good goalering.
And the Matthews contract ending status and age is awful.
The cap hit Matthews got was never an issue.
The issue with that contract is that he got the cap hit without giving up the required term (and UFA years) needed to justify it.
He got 8-year contract terms on a 5-year deal – that was Dubas’ mistake, and it was a big one.
Part of the Leaf’s analytics blind spot is on defense and what makes good goalering.
=================
Not just the Leaf’s.
“a player like Tyler Tullio may have a better chance (or more chances) of making it in the NHL because his offense is impressive and he projects as a solid two-way winger.”
At what point in a players development do you start to “groom” them to play a specific role in the NHL?
At what age (draft + year) do you say to young Tyler Tulio, we’re putting you out there against the other team’s top line; We want you to practice the skills that prevent the star players on the other team from scoring. We want want to develop elite PK skills, and if you’re a centre, elite faceoff skills.
We see something in you and we want you to have long and prosperous NHL career; So we’re going to set you up for success.
In “the good? old days” they gave you aptitude tests in high school
Randle they said…NASA doesn’t need a fine young man like you right now….how about the RCMP…Or the Priesthood.?
^ True story.
I don’t know the specific answer to this question but I would posit that Ty Tulio will have enough on his plate learning the pro game, on and off the ice, and the massive bump in skill, speed, strength, commitment of the players in the AHL. I would think that a “shut down role” against the other team’s top players isn’t in the immediate deployment plans.
The name is a distraction. Let’s pick a different name.
Raphael Lavoie
Ralph needs to up the “give a shit level” – on and off the ice.
Woody (now Chaulk), Gretz, etc, generally speak glowingly about all the prospects – so much so that their verbal needs to be taken with some salt grains – their verbal/tone on Lavoie seemed to change a bit through the season (and I implied work rate/commitment seemed to be an issue).
What does this have to do with my question / proposition?
I don’t think that Lavoie is in a position where they will be grooming him for a certain NHL role. At this point, Ralph needs to worry about working hard enough to stay in the AHL.
He needs to move his feet, to be in the play, to touch the puck. He does it, but not consistently. The “give a shit” implies he doesn’t care and I don’t think that’s it. Sometimes a player can’t make that connection, that moving your feet helps your offense and doesn’t hurt it. I don’t think this is attitude, more about getting outside his comfort zone. He is in some trouble as a prospect, though.
I gleaned that opinion from the verbal, and the change of tone in the verbal, when the coach’s and managers spoke about the player – lots of verbal along the lines of “we are working on some stuff with Ralf…. I could be wrong but that’s what I gleaned and where my mind has gone with it.
Now this guy! I expect to see very soon.
https://www.nhl.com/news/oilers-connor-mcdavid-on-jack-campbell-signing/c-335089070
When asked about the JG/MT leaving Calgary, I wish Connor had said, “I think Calgary just got better.”
Re: Wheeler’s top 10 goalie prospects article, I feel like I would have much preferred reading it if it were laid out 10-1 instead of 1-10.
So Savoie and Petrov are close to the top of the pile in raw offence?
Among Oilers prospects drafted since 2013, their age 19 seasons (18 for Petrov) rank right up there. Now, a man like Draisaitl had McDavid to push him ala Messier with 99, so adjust your expectations accordingly.
Done.
I don’t expect to see them anytime soon.
I’ll look forward to Holloway as a Draisaitl comp.
So, given the comparison, we can expect 37gp, with 2-7-9 scoring. And if that’s what he does…DON’T TRADE HIM!
Holloway’s hand/wrist issues will have an impact on his scoring career, we just don’t know how much.
Sometimes your reasonableness destroys my naïve euphoria. 😉
I had concern about the wrist/thumb “never being 100%” and effecting his shooting going forward.
I am very heartened by watching his game transform late in the season (after the time off with the thigh injury), him becoming a volume shooter and, really, regaining the game I saw him play in Wisconsin.
He looked 100% to me – here is hoping.
I see more Zibanejad
Holloway’s passing is exceptional.
WOW!….Draisaitl and Zibanejad….reminds me of my favorite author, R.E. Dick Ulous
Rod Brind’Amour is the correct answer.
Peak Ethan Moreau is in the conversation.
I really hope and expect Holloway to exceed peak Moreau. Only one season at 20 goals and 2 seasons at over 30 points. A career 3rd liner at best. He worked hard, but he took ridiculously stupid aggression penalties throughout his career. Why MacT ever made him Captain I still do not understand. He’d take a dumb ozone penalty resulting in a power play goal against and possibly cost the team the game, yet he would never get benched, but any young Oiler making a less serious mistake rode the pine. Ranks right up there for me close to Corson and Ference as the worst Captain’s in Oiler’s history. His leadership in 09/10 helped get the team Hall – maybe we can give him credit for that.
The 10 worst contracts in hockey.
Most are defensemen.
https://theathletic.com/3435602/2022/07/26/nhl-worst-contracts-2022/?source=user_shared_article
That Nurse contract is ooooogly. And confirms what we knew. He’s a 7 mil a year player and that’s what he should have gotten. For some reason we know not to pay wingers that play heavy McDavid minutes but not defensemen. Needs to have a good year
Nurse:
Is an elite athlete. Plays ridiculous minutes defending against top opponents.
Skates at an above-average level, makes sharp passes, and jumps into the attack.
Is our toughest player and plays a big and gritty game … while offering the above attributes.
Can the Oilers succeed without this player?
When the salary cap is $90M+, this cap hit worry will subside.
Nevertheless, try to get Bouch Bomb on the Klefbom contract ASAP.
The rising cap floats all boats so all contracts will benefit,
The NHL is an efficiency contest so where you spend your cap resources matters…a lot.
An interesting developing trend this offseason is how little scoring wingers are valued.
While some of the elite ones are being paid, the next lower tier are getting peanuts in return or, in some cases, being essentially given away to create cap space.
That’s been happening for years but very much exacerbated this year.
horrible time for anyone selling wingers
I’m not sure that is what the article said. There’s quite a bit of play around Nurse’s contract value in what Dom has modeled. Lots of upside potential if you’re the optimistic sort. The knock on Nurse has been defending and he was a better defender this past season. With his size, speed and experience he’ll get better at the defending part for the next few years.
This contract will never be value, but it can turn into normal course.
Given the way this blog brings it up you’d figure this thing was like the Tavares contract…
And the 10 best also featuring some defensemen.
https://theathletic.com/3438736/2022/07/25/nhl-best-contracts-2022/?source=user_shared_article
How are these players not on that list?
Bobrovsky
Ekman-Larsson
Carey Price
Kris Letang (his contract expires when he’s 41!)
Rasmus Ristolainen
Philip Grubauer
At least with Nurse and Jones you’re getting a top-pair defenseman in their prime. The above contracts are major limiting factors in their respective teams winning and competing as they’re all injured, aging, or 3rd pairing / backup goalies at this point.
There is a reason why these lists always appear at a time when there is no real news to discuss. 😉
These contracts were assessed at their present value and the potential for the players to live up to that value in the future.
OEL had a very good season in Vancouver and his cap hit is significantly less than the worst on the list and his contract does not persist into dotage.
I would imagine the others were not considered because some, Price and Grubauer, were affected by injury and others are not long term pain.
For example, Ristolainen has a cap hit of $5.1 million with 5 seasons left. He has no trade restrictions in his contract so the potential to move the contract is there.
Nowhere in the model are trade restrictions a consideration.
“Had a very good season” does not mean what you think it means.
OEL had a good season? Good lord, by what metrics?
And he’s getting paid 9.5 million this year and his cap hit is 7.2 until 26-27. Imagine being saddled with that contract for another 4 years. Uggghh.
Dom’s model indicates that both Nurse and Jones are not elite #1D although they are being paid at that level.
Lets not forget that these lists are based off of Dom’s model which basically provides a “game score” based off of certain numbers.
There is “some value” to the model, of course, but its also a deeply flawed model in many respects (as far as evaluating actual worth on the ice).
I can’t argue that Nurse isn’t somewhat overpaid on his cap hit but, at the same time, the value he provides to this team, in so many areas, which also goes well beyond the “measured metrics”, cannot be measured by these types of models.
Darnell Nurse is FAR from the worst contract in the league given what he provides for this team and organization.
So he’s just off pace to be on value at present with a pretty high degree likelyhood that his low danger goals against ratio returning to norm which eould have placed him above on value…with a team in place that was ripping on jet fuel last segment of season – largely intact.
Want to bet he’s under value next 2 years?
Before you spiral into whataboutism land – cap starts rising in a couple years. I’ll even give you the option of repeating bet for next 2 year segment.
Is the Nichushkin contract on that list. Eight years at $6.125 is awful.
$6.1 million is a long way from $9.25 million.
You can get a pretty good forward for the difference.
Yeah you could get a Nichushkin type player with the difference.
Wait, what did Joe pay again…?
The difference is the Zack Kassian contract.
No, because of recency bias. Just as Nurse will have a great season this year and no one will mention his contract next off-season.
I 100% blame management for that Nurse contract. They didn’t learn anything from watching Montreal paint themselves into a corner with PK Subban.
Certainly let all the “distant Bell’s ” play as long as they can in the minors let them develop at their own rate D.ryan is agreat example. Let them force themselves into the Oilers lineup
Of course – not a single player listed in the distant bells chart has an iota of a chance for NHL games this season – well, maybe Fanti, but getting to 4G would be a big issue.