The Edmonton Oilers signed RFA Jesse Puljujarvi to a one-year deal, yesterday. The $3 million cap hit is in the range of reasonable, but it’s an uneasy union between player and team. The main issue isn’t who will play with him (I assume the coach will deploy JP in the optimal spot), but rather the cap situation.
Puljujarvi is signed, but Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod are still to come and money is beyond tight under the cap. It’s like the scenes in the Poseidon Adventure where air and breathing room were losing a battle with rising water, with certain death imminent! It’s damned exciting in a “the capologist (Shelley Winters) is doomed!” way. How does this damn thing end, anyway?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: 5 times Oilers management mishandled Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: Skinner’s rise shows importance of homegrown goalies
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER
This is squeezing Yamamoto and McLeod, starting Holloway in the minors and running with just 21 players. There’s $73,000 left under the cap, except the Oilers are in LTIR with Mike Smith and Oscar Klefbom. It’s a roster that will depend on at least one young defenseman and young Ryan McLeod in a prominent role. I like the group, but the cap gymnastics make things impossible. I expect we’ll see a trade, with JP, KY, Tyson Barrie and Warren Foegele all possible exits.
KEN HOLLAND’S WHITEBOARD
Glen Sather was active in signing free agents from all manner of hockey pipelines in the 1980’s. He signed Charlie Huddy from the OHL (OHA at the time), Randy Gregg was playing in Japan, Pat Conacher was a minor league free agent, Mike Zanier had been playing for the infamous Trail Smoke Eaters. All down the line, even winning Stanleys, Slats was a procurement demon.
Ken Holland hasn’t done much signing of undrafted free agents, so it’s been a parade of draft picks inking deals with very few “wow” moments. There are some curios and interesting names who will be in the organization this fall, plus Ryan Fanti, who could be something. Here’s a list of players who could be in Edmonton, Bakersfield or Wichita this winter, who were signed to an NHL or ECHL-AHL deal in recent months.
- G Ryan Fanti signed out of Minnesota-Duluth and is (my guess) No. 4 on the pro depth chart entering camp. He stands out among the Holland signings since the GM arrived from Detroit in 2019 spring.
- LW Carter Savoie is a college sniper the club drafted a couple of years ago. Signing him now was a good idea, because another year of college and he might have been difficult to sign (supernova season brings competition). He’ll get a full shot in Bakersfield, similar to Fanti. I’d put him No. 7 on the left-wing depth chart.
- RC Filip Engaras was signed to an AHL deal out of New Hampshire. He’s a former draft pick of the team sixth round 2020), and would have to be considered a candidate to spend time with the ECHL Wichita Thunder at times this year. Otherwise, he’ll be in Bakersfield.
- LD Jordan Muzzillo graduated from Alaska-Fairbanks and is turning pro with the Wichita Thunder on a ECHL-AHL deal. He is 25, 6.02 and 192, more of a shutdown type. He played with the Thunder for a few games at the end of last season.
- LW Steven Ipri, 24, also played a few ECHL games (3, 0-1-1) after completing his college career with Mercyhurst College. He has some skill, but is listed at 5.11, 154. He can win faceoffs.
- RD Billy Constantinou. I’m a fan, had him on my draft list in 2019 (No. 57) and 2020 (No. 105). At The Athletic before the 2020 draft, I wrote “fine skater and a strong puck-moving defender, and an NHL team that can afford some chaos may take a chance. He is an unusual talent and might never reach his potential, but in later rounds Constantinou will be worth the risk.” He’s on an ECHL-AHL deal, but I’ll be watching and cheering. He has talent.
- RW Ian Parker. He is 6.09, 249. I don’t know what I can write after those numbers that a reader could be expected to retain. He played in the ECHL last season (64, 11-12-23) for three different teams. I assume the first two teams released him out of fear.
- LW Brayden Watts. He’s from Bakersfield, so received a four-game recall to the Condors last season. At 23, he’s burning daylight as a prospect but in the ECHL last year (13-33-46, 52 games) he showed real skill. You might see more of him in Bakersfield in 2022-23.
- LW Carter Johnson. He’s 26, 6.03, 201 and his grandfather is Bobby Leiter (Bruins, Pittsburgh, Atlanta in the 1960’s and 1970’s NHL). He went 16-29-45 in 69 games in his first pro season.
Anyone know how I can make $95/hour working from home?
Sorry, I’m only aware of $92/hour.
The oldest profession, I suppose?
Farming!
Did anyone else note that Juolevi signed a 2-way deal with Anaheim at $750,000? That’s the same deal Lagesson got, except Lagesson’s minors salary is $50,000 higher. It is like the guy is cursed.
I saw that.
The Ducks had to replace Brogan Rafferty it seems (who’s gone to Seattle on essentially the same deal, except it’s got a higher AHL salary).
It’s almost like they are *both* cursed.
You cannot replace Brogan Rafferty. You can only plaster over the gaping hole in your soul and hope it doesn’t rain.
Holloway is the obvious replacement for Foegle, so a trade might be in the cards for a cheap decent 4th line center, but I could also get on board a Yamo for Joseph trade with OTT.
No thanks. Get Yamo signed.
Carolina re-signed Ethan Bear.
1X$2.2 million.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2022/07/carolina-hurricanes-re-sign-ethan-bear.html
Trying to corner the market on RD. 😉
So Bear’s qualifying offer from Carolina was $2.5 million, he opts to file for arbitration and ends up signing for $2.2 million instead of seeing it through. Not great work by his agent.
I just realized Bear’s QO was limited to 120% of his AAV since it was signed after the 2020 MOU, so his QO would have been $2.4 million. Still potentially took an unnecessary cut.
Perhaps designed to facilitate a trade.
I recall the Hurricanes allowed Bear to shop for a new team, that probably included dollars. Team now has less than $2 million for Martin Necas, so something has to give. I expect the Hurricanes played hardball on the contract, and Bear, having gone through a difficult season, compromised. Suspect that’s it.
I believe that Bear could have signed the QO at least right up until electing arbitration, which may be considered Bear rejecting the offer, otherwise QO’s stay open for 2 weeks. If that is the case, Carolina couldn’t have played hard ball with him to take less than the QO until after that date. I can’t see that Bear would elect arbitration if he thought the outcome would be less than $2.4 million at the time of electing it.
Carolina let Bear shop himself before free agency (like DeAngelo). They probably had a handshake deal that Bear would not sign his QO and opt for arbitration.
The $2.2 million dollar number was probably agreed to as a condition to letting Bear shop himself, as a quid pro quo for letting him look for a better deal elsewhere.
They have a few.
LAK have 6 plus 2 blue chip RH prospects.
You tell the group Evan Bouchard isn’t an NHL defensemen. It’s impossible to value any input on what a organization has and doesn’t have as its clear you’re completely lacking the ability to assess such things.
A Panthers scout on the trade.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/nhl-scouts-analysis-why-cole-schwindt-could-be-the-wild-card-in-flames-panthers-trade/sn-amp/
https://twitter.com/DimFilipovic/status/1552312254736920576?s=20&t=1071FtKPN06DoVcy8f5bnA
KULAK!
A lot of this is also a function of who they play against. Kulak played 14 minutes against Mackinnon and 9 minutes against Gaudreau. His most frequent opposition on the Avalanche was Lehkonen and Compher and against Calgary it was a line centered by Jarnkrok. Nurse played against Mackinnon and his line 36 minutes and 49 minutes against Gaudreau and his line. Nurse faced much, much tougher competition to defend at the blue line than Kulak.
I think this analysis, while interesting, is missing a huge amount of detail to be truly meaningful.
Great that Kulak did very well in his role.
Agreed. Playoffs are a small sample size and significantly more hard matching.
My concern is Barrie from this graph. D that can’t defend well and aren’t elite offensively are to me not an overall benefit. Especially for a team whose greatest need remains to lower GA more (team D) than score
Over the past 10 seasons, Barrie is 7th in points.
Over the last 5 seasons, Barrie is 7th in points.
Over the past 2 seasons, Barries is 10th in points.
I acknowledge that he’s a bit lower in the rankings if you remove PP but what is “elite offensively”?
Makar etc. Difference makers. Barrie is fine but has to be sheltered and babysat. His better numbers are Kulak babysitting him
It’s great he played NHL hockey in the playoffs. And also offensive in that he won’t most of the time. He has the size (stocky) to do it but prefers non physical play
The only reason to keep him is to minimize Bouch’s next deal
He’s not bad, just takes far too many resources per contribution for me
You spoke to the need to be elite offensively – I responded with the fact that he’s been a top 7 producer in the NHL in a decade, and top 10 over his time with the Oilers. I’m not sure referencing being sheltered during a 2-month stretch has much value vis-a-vis a decade of elite offensive production.
You have moved he goal posts.
A great thread on defending the rush.
Thread
@DimFilipovic
Went back and tracked the 89 playoff games this postseason. Then wrote all about it @EPRinkside
Here’s Part 1 on defending the blue line. Why rush defense is so important in today’s game, who was the best at it, and how they did it
https://bit.ly/3BmcUls
Exhibit A of how much Nurses injury hurt.
Iirc, Nurse was very good at defending the rush/blueline during the regular season.
Pretty amazing that Keith had decent goal shares considering how poor he was at defending the blueline.
Will be interesting to see how Bouchard’s defensive game looks playing with Kulak, who is quite good at defending the blueline vs. Playing with Keith, who is quite poor.
Apologies for the haphazard comment. Writing on woodguy’s phone.
Edit: never mind, just looked and Keith’s goal shares in the playoffs were not good.
He had the one game against LA (game 5) where he was 0 GF -3 GA at 5 on 5. That accounts for almost all of Keith’s deficit on GF/GA in the playoffs. Coincidently he was on with Leon for the 0-3. Leon was already playing hurt and not well on his own line. After the take down, Leon got moved to Connor’s wing for the rest of the playoffs. Keith was even the rest of the series against LA, even against the Flames and -1 against the Avalanche.
Thanks for this!
Kulak was superb.
Looks like Calgary hit a home run with Weegar.
One year UFA, and then he moves on or you overpay! Your B.S is unbelievable!
That’s HH’s schtick … offer over-top praise of other teams management and players by and throw shade on the Oilers by only posting articles that paint them in a negative light, always ignoring the larger context of things.
Nothing but a shallow troll.
By the same metric, the Oilers hit a homerun in Kulak, even moreso, much moreso, given contract (and acquisition cost)…..
You have no idea what his next contract will look like.
And you have no idea if Weegar will actually be a home run for the Flames.
Looks like they got a legit #2D for their top pairing…plays both sides effectively and has great fancies.
I guess the could have spent more than $9 million for that…but they didn’t.
The thing about Calgary is, they want to spend $9 million or more on players but the players would rather go anywhere else instead.
He was just signed for his prime years at 2.75 M.
Nurse is absolutely elite at defending the rush – that’s not the same as defending zone entry but Nurse essentially NEVER gets beat wide on the rush. Of course, the hip flexor injury in the playoffs changed that but he’s elite in that area.
Agreed. But I thought there was a thread/post somewhere that also showed Nurse being good at denying zone entries in the regular season. Maybe I am mis-remembering.
Charts/stats like this need to be put into context and some of the comments on this thread do just that. Forwards who don’t backcheck hard or tightly will impact the desire/ability of the D to hold up the entry. Woody sought to address this on his arrival. ‘details’ were spoken of in hushed tone.
This was talked about quite a bit during the Tippett/Playfair era as well – the d-men requiring forward support in order to aggressively defend the zone entry.
For whatever reason, whether it was buy-in or structural, there was a material and impactful change under the new coaching regime.
This is surprising:
The FW Connor McDavid’s SF/60 rate was the best with (of those he played more than 100 minutes) was…..
Foegele
2nd
Puljujarvi
Worst rate with:
Kassian
then
Yamamoto
difference of 12.07 shots per 60 between WF and ZK
or 2.02 shots per 10 minutes together
Of the fw’s he played 100 minutes+ with, McDavid’s on ice GF/60 rate (5v5) best with:
Kane
then
Yamamoto
Worst with:
Foegele
then
Hyman
McDavid had his best onice shot for rates with Foegele but worst GF rate
Foegele’s lack of finishing rearing it’s ugly head here??
would like the Sportlogic data here
btw
there were 7 FW’s that McDavid played 100+ 5v5 minutes with last year
Now sort the list by GF/60. Others will argue that people should look at xGF/60, but there is a reason guys like Foegele are generally in the bottom 6 and guys like Kane are in the top 6 and it is not puck luck.
good thought! was at it as you asked
of course, the next step would be to see who else was on the ice with them but it gets to ridiculously small sample sizes
ooh Heinen goes back to Pittsburgh for only $1M
If I’m not mistaken, they didn’t qualify him at like $1.1M and then signed him for a hair below that amount…
18 goals
It’s a weird case. Heinen signed with the Bruins for $2.8 x 2 in 2019, then got traded at the deadline to Anaheim. He played out his 2 year deal in Anaheim, who didn’t qualify him at his ~$2.8 million salary, then siged as a UFA with Pittsburgh for $1.1 million. Pittsburgh at the end of that deal as you noted didn’t qualify him at that amount after his 33 points in 77 games. Probably didn’t want to risk arbitration and instead made him a UFA.
Kind of similar to how things went with Kahun. Almost a .5 ppg guy with Chicago, Pittsburgh and Buffalo, but Buffalo didn’t qualify him at the $975,000 because of arbitration, but his value on the UFA market was still only $975,000.
Heinen did get a good contract for his first good season, but now seems to be something about Heinen’s game in the eyes of the teams that could have pursued him, where he is not getting paid commensurate with his point production. Either that or he has a bad agent.
It makes me think, if the Oilers did the same with Puljujarvi, what contract would a team give him right now on the open market?
I think of Kahun when I see these types of players/signings around the league. Generally there’s a reason why these guys (decent offense, not in demand) aren’t getting paid what their point production suggests they should be.
Ryan Donato is the same, resigning with Seattle at $1.1 million after 16 goals and 31 points in 74 games. Seattle didn’t qualify him at $750,000 likely due to the arb fear, but no one else jumped at the chance to give him a big raise.
Yes, exactly. Seems that there’s something about these guys that boxcars, and analytics (I think), are not picking up. GMs seem to be on the same page, and having watched Kahun for a season, I assume it’s similar for these other guys.
..
McDavid led the league (for FW’s) in total On ice corsi’s for by 153 over second place
Random stat that may or may not show coaches belief in the players possession of some concoction of: puck handling, puck possession, skating, passing and vision abilities
Overtime Time on ice per overtime game played
McDavid 2:12
Draisattl 2:06
Nuge 1:06
Hyman :45
Kane :44
McLeod :22
JP :15
Turris :13
Yamamoto :12
and this may be interesting to some:
Defence – same stat:
Nurse 2:14
Keith :42
Barrie :38
Kulak (with Oilers, not MTL) :23
Bouchard :17
Russell :16
Ceci :14
what surprised me was Bouchard’s :17
Slow boots
I don’t think Bouchard has slow boots….
Janmark got into :11/per ot game played with Vegas
McKegg didn’t get in any ot action but got a fantastic seat – look on the bright side
As of today the 10 Fw’s with the most total ice time last season are all still with the team
But after that a lot of the depth/fringe players are out
The 11th, Kassian, is out
12th was Shore
13th – Sceviour – out
14th – Benson
15th – Turris – out
16th – Perlini – out
17th – Brassard – out
18th – Archibald – out
19th – Malone
Let’s call the Kassian time Janmarks for accounting purposes
after that it is a free for all for ice time, including those not yet signed or invited to pto’s
the FWs that are, so far, not returning to the team played 1631 total minutes, give or take a few seconds
that’s 19:53 per game
Joel Matta has officially made the Aug. WJC team for Finland, likely as a 3C or 4C.
https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/nuorten-leijonien-mm-joukkue-valittu-yllatykset-jaivat-valiin-mukana-joakim-kemell-ja-useita-muita-kovia-nimia/8478008#gs.7lcgj2
nice
Fantastic – that will be a great start to his North American career (he’s joining Munzenburger in Vermont, I believe).
I’ll be going to four medal round games.
Määttä has already played in North America for three seasons.
He played two seasons in the USHL, then his freshman season with Munzenberger in Vermont most recently.
Not Oiler related but its a slow news day. 😉
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
I’m told free agent defenseman John Klingberg has parted ways with longtime agent Peter Wallen. Klingberg is now being represented by Newport Sports Management.
His Rep at Newport is now Craig Oster, the guy who negotiated the Thomas, Norris, Palat and Chiarot deals which all seemed a little high or long to me.
If there is a contract soon, that won’t be a good pr scenario for Wallen
Oster reps Tyler Benson btw
Also, whether he plays in game 1 or not, I think Holloway needs to be on the opening night roster so we don’t have the issue of his performance bonuses potential hitting the cap in this season – that would be the case if he was not on the opening night roster and called up mid-season.
We need to keep his 2022/23 cap hit at $925K.
I don’t hate the lineup posted except that I really would like to keep Hyman on the left side and, for me, that’s as easy as moving Foegele and replacing him with Holloway.
I know, that is “gifting” Holloway the 3LW spot as opposed to making him earn it over the veteran (Foegele) but the cap is the cap and the depth chart is the depth chart and, of course, from watching a ton of Holloway these past few years (AHL and Wisconsin), I see him as ready for that 3LW spot.
As far as preferring Hyman on the left, we chatted a bit about that late last night. I don’t have any numbers to back up my preference, I simply recall him not performing as well during his limited time when he shifted to the right side. I’m sure the sample is too small and my brain may be mis-remembering but that’s where my mind goes.
———–
As far as the two RFA signings, well, I don’t think we can project Yamo at $2.7MM as they can’t squeeze him due to the arbitration hammer and its seems unlikely an award would come that low.
Sure, they can squeeze Ryan McLeod but offering up a raise of less than $40K on what he made last year, given his performance and development. This is a player that I think can provide value for cap hit for a decade on this team – I would like to treat him a bit better than a $37,500 raise, right?
Hyman covers so much ice in the offensive zone that it really doesn’t matter which wing he ends up on.
Is that true?
I recall seeing him much less effective when playing right wing this past season.
They sample size may be too small but I recall seeing it.
His most common linemates in order were:
McDavid
Puljujarvi
Draisaitl
Yamamoto
Nuge
McLeod
You can probably make a solid guess why he looked less impressive on the right side.
His main linemates in TO were Matthews and Marner, so likely the same story there.
Sure, fair enough. With that said, wasn’t a big “selling point” on Hyman the premise that he can play with the top players but also be slotted “down the lineup” and drive a 3rd line? Presumably, with the likes of Nuge and McLeod (players not devoid of skill), he would, or should, have been able to do that.
Again, the sample is likely inconsequential and my eyes/brain may not be remembering his actual play correctly.
I would still like to keep him on the left side, if possible, though.
I want Hyman with Nuge on the ‘third line’ playing big minutes at 5v5 and on the PK. I don’t care which wing he lines up because he mostly ends up grinding along both walls and behind the net when in the offensive zone.
Who would you play on the ‘second line’?
I presume Kane and, either Holloway or McLeod as the top 2 LWs and Jesse and Kailer on the other side?
Yep – softer minutes on a sheltered scoring line with Leon, with McLeod and Holloway each getting some time there. I’d want to get some intel early in the season whether these two are going to be 3rd line grinders or have more than that to offer.
Hyman and Nuge are the top PK pair, so they should just stay together this season – allows the bench the roll the lines more smoothly.
In honour of #99 and getting him from Indianapolis, the Oilers have moved their ECHL affiliation to Fort Wayne
I’m not sure I like having an affiliate that can’t spell “Comets” correctly
Bruce Boudreau’s son is the coach of the Komets
“They’re not in Kansas anymore”
Fort Wayne is 783 miles further away from Bakersfield than Wichita was
It seems that the Condors fear Ian Parker too.
Colin Chaulk is one of the top scoring Komet’s of all time…..
Stauff speculating a multi-year extension for Yamamoto may come.
Lots of runway with this player until UFA status (4 years I believe). I don’t see it going longer than 3 years.
What’s the AAV delta between a 1-year deal and a 3-year deal?
Main point for me is…you try and negotiate some term with the players you want/intend to keep.
Not sure but big enough that a Foegele trade isn’t going to cut the mustard for cap compliance.
Anything over $3 million for Yamamoto and the Oilers will have to deal Barrie rather than Foegele.
I don’t think the Oilers can afford to thin out the D depth anymore than it is.
I’m okay with a one year deal for Yams if that can get the deal under $3.
Barrie is at his high value mark and now is the time to move him,
That by itself is not enough to justify trading Barrie. If by trading Barrie, Holland can assemble a team for 22/23 that is at least as good on the ice than by not trading Barrie, then he makes the trade. Barrie’s TOI has to be replaced. Holland does not have on his 50 man roster any player that can be expected to replace his minutes without an overall drop in the performance of the team defense (and by that I mean their contributions at both ends of the ice). It is possible, but the odds are likely less than 50/50.
Bouchard could play PP, but the first unit was much more productive last year with Barrie than with Bouchard. Does Bouchard not only have to take on an extra 2 minutes of PP time, but also pick up the slack if Barrie’s replacement is not a 16 – 17 minute per night 5 on 5 right D like Barrie? It is possible that Bouchard is ready to become a 22 per night D man and be effective, but I don’t think it can be counted on.
If Holland can find a surprise RD that he can sign or trade for that is likely able to play 15 to 17 minutes of solid D and maybe penalty kill, then he could trade Barrie. If not, I don’t see Holland going into the season, with uncertainty on the back end. And Broberg and the rest of the prospects are hopeful, but uncertain.
I think the d-man is Scott Mayfield and Barrie is likely a player the Isles could be interested in given Lou L’s verbal about want to acquire offence for his back-end. I think he values Mayfield quite a bit though but, then again, he’s only one year until UFA status (and Barrie he’d have for two years). The gap in cap hit would be massive for the Oil and they’d probably need to “pay for it” – the Isles do seem to have the cap space though.
I don’t see it happening but that would be the type of trade that I could see working.
Kane McDavid Yamamoto
Kailer happy with anything over league minimum.
KIDDING
#SortOf
#HalfTruth
My guess is the KY contract will be perceived/received as “fair value”, if not “value”
If I was Yamo I’d want two years and I’d be willing to make the money work.
2x$2.75, maybe as low as 2x$2.50. At that point Foegele’s money is up for grabs, age wise Kailer will be something close to peak offense and he should be invaluable to the PK given current role.
Take some cash certainty now and bet on yourself for a payday for the fun years when Leon re-ups.
That’s an interesting position given he would likely be awarded $3M plus for a one year deal in arbitration…..
Trade Foegele and give KY the Foegele contract. Then trade Barrie proactively, before the wheels fall off the wagon.
Getting rid of Foegele may not be easy.
Much better wingers are being given away almost for nothing.
Or stick Koekkoek on LTIR and keep everyone this season because they are valuable and contribute to winning? Seems like the play to me.
Next year you move Barrie and give his money to Bouchard along with a dash from the Looch/Sek/Kook savings. The rest of that is split between JP and McLeod for four and two years respectively. You also have Ryan, Janmark and Shore money to ensure you don’t have to worry about any ELC bonuses and can use that coin to fund depth D and/or a crusty forward.
Year after that you need to re-up Yamo and he’ll get a bump into the $4ish range maybe a bit higher if he pops.
You need to worry about the Leon bump cause he’ll be coming in near $12 million at that point. Not sure McDavid will need a raise though…
Can’t just stick players on LTIR that are materially injured.
Koekkoek can be fully buried if he isn’t on the roster.
“Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?” Yes…Yes he can.
How much value does he bring? Approximately $9.25m worth
Is he getting better? Yes. ….. Yes he is.
#IfTheGoodLordWillinAndTheCapDoRise
“How does this damn thing end, anyway?”
Well since you asked….
Under the heading “Fortune Favours the Bold”
Here’s the next in the series of Bold Predictions from Randle McMurphy:
In late Febuary 2023, Jesse Puljujarvi becomes a Chicago Blackhawk.
In a deal that sends Patrick Kane to the Edmonton Oilers (50% retained), the Blackhawks recieve Jessie Puljujarvi and the Oilers 2025 1st round pick.
Evander Kane Check.
Jack Campbell Check
Brett Kulak Check
Patrick Kane _____
That would be grand larceny . LOL . They would need to send more money out to make the numbers work in the cap .
Patrick Kane holds the hammer here.
Patrick Kane decides ‘if’ he moves, “where’ he moves, and in that sense “at what cost he moves”
The Chicago Blackhawks have 2 first round picks in 2023 and 2 in 2024. With this deal, they complete the set… 2 first round picks in 2025
#NotLarceny…Leverage
Not a good look for Hockey Canada today… this obviously goes way deeper than first anticipated…
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/hockey-canada-house-of-commons-committee-1.6533439
This story gets no play down here in the States but it is a horror story for sure. And now the 2003 team. My hope is it gets cleared up quickly but interesting that 8 were accused, 9 have refused to be interviewed.
Goes back to Bob Nicholson’s watch.
I think it pre-dates him.
I don’t remember anything about the merger of the CAHA and Hockey Canada (in 1994), but Nicholson was VP of CAHA until then (The article mentions the fund being in place since 1989).
I’m starting to circle back to Barrie being the one that needs to be sacrificed for the cap space. I want to keep Barrie and I think the Oilers do too, but you start to wonder if Foegele is just untradeable without evening out the cap space with the other team. Barrie for a 3rd pairing right D making $2M or less does let us keep all the RFAs and grab a cheap forward for the 4th line.
There is no ‘happy’ answer to this. Prior to Keith announcing his retirement I made an argument that this season was not the one to go ‘all in’ due to all the dead cap and LTIR etc. that had built up. All of a sudden some of those issues disappeared but this summer was going to cost somebody their roster spot as soon as the Campbell signing was announced.
Losing Foegele would have the least short term effect on the team’s on ice performance while trading Barrie would allow the opportunity to balance the pairings more effectively but impact the PP and puck movement in general.
I think they are both good players signed to reasonable contracts but it is fair to say that neither one represents the most efficient use of cap space for this particular team any longer.
I would trade both of them if more suitable players were available via trade or FA but that is easier said than done because other teams have their own problems to solve.
For example could Barrie be turned into a 2RW and Foegele into a 3RD? That would balance the team imo but Holland has to find those guys and a GM willing to trade them.
In total, Hollland so far looks like he is spending the same on goalies this season as he did last season. A Reimer or equivalent would have saved $2-$3 million but hard to say what the other repercussions of having to obtain that through trade. I think Campbell was the right medium to long term call.
On defense, he is paying roughly the same this season. The savings on Keith of $5.5 million, is eaten up, by a ~$1 million raise to Kulak, a $3.65 million raise to Nurse plus having Broberg in the line up to replace Keith’s roster spot.
The bigger change is keeping Kane with his $3 million raise while also having to give raises to Jesse and Kailer. Getting rid of Kassian’s contract was a start, but to keep them all will require more adjustments.
I understand all of that. And it may very well turn out that Campbell was the correct call.
All I am pointing out is that Keith’s resignation allowed Holland to move his timeline forward from what it was but didn’t eliminate all of the anchors that had accumulated.
He had choices because of Keith’s decision that were not there otherwise and he made them according to his sense of priorities and the hand he was dealt with Smith also needing to be replaced.
Those choices have led him to where he is now and barring another rabbit out of the hat that will involve another roster player from last year moving on.
The only thing I’ve never liked about the Campbell signing is that we had to make such a long term bet on such an important position because he was one of 2 guys who happened to be available in free agency this year.
I think the signing underestimates Skinner.
Holland took the ‘safe’ path and in doing so made his decision based upon a path we have seen here before where urgency rather than prudence dictated the move.
It isn’t horrible. It might turn out. I would have preferred the money to be spent elsewhere.
Think how much easier this all is if instead of Fogs signed at 2.75 we have Bear signs at ~ 1M as insurance on the blue. Easier still to move Barrie in that scenario.
I sort of like the idea of Broberg Barrie, but I reserve the right to disavow having said this in 6 months.
I would want to know who the alternative to Barrie is before trading him.
Everybody on both the Oilers and Leaf’s blogs pontificated on getting Reimer … yet he’s still in Sam Jose. It takes two to tango and Grier clearly doesn’t want to deal him.
Bear’s not signing hear and Holland has no intention of moving Barrie … move on.
You are probably right but Grier does have 3 goalies on contract which is what prompted the speculation.
At this point it is more likely that Hill is the one he prefers to move and I would not consider him to be of any interest to either Edmonton or Toronto.
I don’t think that’s the case necessarily – the Sharks have 3 NHL goalies and, last week Scheng Peng posited that Reimer is likely the one that gets dealt.
Poolparty for 3RD. 😉
I thought it was Instanbou, not Constaninou
This is another level in terms of brilliance. I am in awe, sir.
You seem high on the kid. But is it Love.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNW_wo-_mbQ
Absolutely GOLD!
Bold prediction: Woodcroft will win the Jack Adams this season. I think him at the helm for a full season, figuring things out, and building a team psyche is the largest improvement this team has heading into a new season. He brings confidence, results, and swagger.
He’s a player-first coach, players like playing for him.
He’s innovative, one tweak can pay large dividends.
He listens to analytics.
He has a significant roster to deploy.
Two exciting goaltending options.
Why the hate for Jay Woodcroft, by wishing the cursed Jack Adams on him?
Is there any value in replacing Derek Ryan with someone making near league minimum?
Derek Ryan is a strange player to me, he does a lot of little things right and he knows where he needs to be offensively and defensively, but he’s just not getting there in time anymore. He’s plays the game like someone who has a future in coaching. He’s the oldest Oiler (LTIR’d Mike Smith aside), but he’s played fewer NHL games than McDavid. The non-veteran veteran.
The Oilers are close enough to the cap that the gap between him and Shore (or Benson or some other player in that salary range or less) might be worth the extra $400k-$500k.
This is an interesting idea to get a little more cap space IMO. Nothing against Ryan, but for what he brings… replaceable for less is a good bet.
That’s definitely a fair question, and you’re right it could save as much as $500k.
I’ll remind though that after Ryan’s very poor first 20 games:
20GP 0-1-1 boxcars
45% SF
16% GF (3GF-16GA)
45% xGF
54% faceoffs
He was quality for the remainder of the season. His last 55 games:
55GP 9-12-21 boxcars
56% SF
59% GF (30GF-21GA)
54% xGF
57% faceoffs
He was 7th in forward scoring. Was a very positive contributor on ice. Continued to win faceoffs.
There’s an argument that he provided real value above league min for the large majority of the season (and overall, really).
My 2 cents.
Am I correct in thinking the uptick in form corresponds to him being moved from centre to wing?
I think it corresponds to when Woodcroft was brought in. I think he was sharing faceoff duty with Nuge at point on a Foegele-Nuge-Ryan line. (But my memory is atrocious, so take that with a grain of salt.)
That’s probably part of it, but IIRC he wasn’t moved to wing until later. The start of that 55 games was Dec. 7th, so we’re going pretty far back in the season there.
The other two things I think were involved were:
1) He was getting absolutely hammered by percentages/luck in the first 20 games. His SF% and xGF% (and scoring) did improve a lot after that, but it was terrible luck that he went 3GF-16GA in the first 20 (his other numbers suggest it should have been more like 8GF-10GA).
2) The team as a whole (at 5v5) was better in the 55 game stretch. The first 20 they were running a hot PP, but the play at 5v5 was not great. The later 55 included most of the ugly 2-11-2 stretch, but also all of Woodcroft’s time with the team and was overall stronger (at 5v5) then the first 20 games.
I thought his playoffs were kinda meh. And I don’t remember his final 20 games being great either. He did have a strong two weeks in February though. 8gp 5g-3a-8p.
Your numbers do point to someone who is part of the solution though. You’re probably right, replacing someone who is winning their GF battle with a player who probably won’t doesn’t justify a $500k savings.
Yeah he wasn’t overly impressive in the playoffs.
I just think it’s not trivial to find someone for league min who’s going to break even at 5v5, kill penalties, pot a few goals and can win faceoffs. It can happen, but it’s more likely whoever the replacement is falls short on at least a few of the fronts.
No, I don’t think this is a wise place to save a couple hundred K. You risk having a player who is unplayable even on the 4th line. Ryan is completely fine in his role at his price point.
The maximum that can saved by burying a player in the minors is $375,000. So if Ryan is sent to the minors and clears waivers, and replaced by a league minimum contract, that would be the net savings. If he is traded, or doesn’t clear waivers and not recalled, and he is replaced by someone at the league minimum ($750,000 according to Capfriendly) then the savings would be about $500,000. The Oilers lowest current salaried forwards are signed at $762,500 – (Griffith, McKegg, Malone) which could be the league minimum, if Capfriendly is off on its schedule.
I agree with others here that Ryan brings enough to the team that Woodcroft/Holland would prefer him in the line up over the other cheaper forwards currently available to them. Being a righthand face off option, even is he mostly plays right wing now may have some value too.
Good discussion. I’ll add this tidbit:
Faceoffs by right shots:
Ryan 512 — 56%
Hyman 85 — 48%
Sceviour 62 — 47%
Turris 50 — 56%
Kassian 7 — 43%
…
Don’t see any obvious replacements from within for this function.
Bruce beat me to it a bit but I wanted to note that the current right shot depth chart is: Puljujarvi, Yamamoto (RFA), Ryan and Ryan is the only right shot faceoff guy on the team.
Edit: I guess, technically, Hyman is right shot but I think there is a reason he’s played most of his career as a LW.
I wonder why they have never seemed to try JP. Maybe they have in practice
It wouldn’t surprise me if he was good at it, big and strong
Jesse is 2-9 on faceoffs in his career with the Oilers. Seems is almost never considered even if his center is tossed. I would think they all take turns in practice just in case. Size can help quite a bit, but technique is even more important. Giroux is 5’11” 185 and is second only to Patrice Bergeron, 6’1″ 195 in face off prowess over the last several seasons. Giroux schooled Draisaitl on 3 or 4 consecutive faceoffs with the Oiler’s goalie pulled late in the game last season. Derek Ryan ranks 17th in faceoff % (at least 100 draws) in the last 7 seasons and he is 5″10, 185.
he could lick the face of the opposing center with that long tongue to create a meaningful distraction and take the puck
He could, but Brad Marchand has already been warned about his licking of other players:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/report-nhl-speak-bruins-brad-marchands-licking/
haha true enough!
Ian Parker scares his own shadow…
Maybe switch him to RD and see what happens… Big Buff 2.0
Kyle Bigos 20.0
Yup, the Jesse signing yesterday solved little. We knew the contract was going to come in around $3MM – in fact, its probably a few hundred grand less then what was expected via an arb award.
Frankly, I don’t think Holland is getting enough credit for the contract – lower than we thought it would be and he was able to keep it at one-year which means the Oilers retain his RFA rights on expiry.
All we really know is the actually number with certainty and that the player willingly signed it with the team.
We don’t know anything else. We don’t know if the player signed it hoping to get traded and we can simply speculate and posit opinions on that based off what facts we do have. We don’t know if the GM plans to trade the player or if he values the player more than, say, Warren Foegele – we can simply speculate and posit opinions based on the facts we have.
Here is hoping that we have some clarity on the path forward in the next few weeks (along with the other two RFA signings) but, of course, the conclusion of “who goes” could draft in to the late summer.
Holland gave Jesse a cordial farewell contract . It works for both sides . The writing is on the wall . Clarity will come soon .
Tick-Tock
I don’t necessarily agree.
It could work out that way, with Jesse being moved. It could very well work out with Jesse in the Oilers’ lineup come October.