We are about to enter a period of transition for the Oilers roster. Pretty sure. A new coach in Mike Babcock, aging veterans and youngsters pushing. It happens every year but there are players on the roster who are vulnerable. Let’s start with the younger group.
I wrote about the options for Edmonton that day almost 11 years ago. I think it’s a good reminder about what can happen when a new coach (in this case Todd McLellan back in 2015) looks at a roster and evaluates individuals. There’s a mile of sway. Every time
- Brandon Davidson waivers. It’s a quick, easy move and even though it risks losing him this is the day to do it because there could be three teams worth of players on the wire.
- Griffin Reinhart. It gives the Oilers a chance to watch GR develop a little more in the minors and as we’ve talked there are some cap bonus issues that would be burned off with time in the AHL.
- Andrew Ference. This would require Ference to agree to a move and Edmonton would have to swallow (likely) half the contract and add a painful sweetener but that’s probably their top option. The problem is finding a dance partner.
- Anton Slepyshev could be sent down, it’s probably the most logical move of the bunch.
- Leon Draisaitl could be sent down, there are some bonus opportunities that could burn just like GR.
- Matt Hendricks hurt his hand, could go on IR.
- Luke Gazdic waivers.
- Rob Klinkhammer waivers.
The opening night roster shows Brandon Davidson made the roster but was a healthy scratch, along with veterans Andrew Ference and Rob Klinkhammer. Griffin Reinhart was in the lineup, but McLellan wasn’t thrilled with the blue (specifically Mark Fayne, who would have a tough year). Anton Slepyshev, Luke Gazdic and Matt Hendricks were all in the lineup against St. Louis Blues. Leon would be back, soon.
We talked about this yesterday, but I wanted to further belabor the point. It seems to me that people are talking about making the roster/not making the roster, but this season’s Oilers are actually going to have players on the roster who don’t dress for games.
Edmonton can take a total of three players and park them in the pressbox. Opening night could be Tristan Jarry, Trent Frederic and Shakir Mukhamadullin. Or it could be Devon Levi, Ty Emberson and Ike Howard.
McLellan didn’t like Fayne’s boots, he didn’t like that Fayne wouldn’t stand up at the blue line (he was cheating to get back and move the puck) and had the boots issues with Griffin Reinhart, too. Brandon Davidson, unheralded and closer to a waiver drop, ate their lunch and McLellan eventually used Kris Russell in the role Fayne was found wanting.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is about to happen in Edmonton. I’m surprised so many of you think the Babcock Oilers are going to be identifcal to the Knoblauch Oilers. Babcock didn’t come here to develop Ike Howard, he came here to win a Stanley Cup. Hold on to your ass.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll chat about the Babcock Oilers, have a long look at the CFL games this week and ponder the mlb pennant chase. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Stauff again on the likelihood that we’ll see McDavid and Drai play together and he thinks they will play together more than last season.
Let’s not forget, Babcock saying straight up the day he was officially hired that this was a possibility and they may do different things on the road than at home. I’ve been saying for over a month now that they are going to do this at home.
Bob suggests if you give Podz to Nuge that will be a strong second line – along with Hyman. I would note that Kane/Nuge/Hyman was very strong in the 2024 playoffs.
I don’t like or love it but its going to happen.
Parketti on Oilers Now mentioned there are 7 people on his analytics team in the org.
Is he looking volunteers?
Asking for a friend.
Frederic seems by far the biggest question mark to me.
Some say hes a lock due to contract. However, by same token (new coach) his contract could mean nothing.
Last year he said he was fine but played awful. Was he was miscast in his role? In Boston he was an agitator power forward contributing in all around play. He was involved and clear on his role.
In a softer playing team like Edmonton his agitator role was as much enforcer as Edmonton had few players playing the role. Frederic is not an enforcer. He did not fit in and looking backwards based on comments on coaching, it sounds like his role and positioning may have been unclear.
There is still hope for Frederic but it really is mostly hope, his time in Edmonton has been below replacement level. If he comes out slow this spring there will be better options.
Unless he’s traded, or put on IR, he is a lock. He can’t be waived.
I think the org wants to give him a chance with a nice reset. Let’s not forget, last year, he had 3 months after playing on a badly sprained ankle for 2 months in a playoff grind. Presumably there was very little hockey training last off season and mostly rehab.
He was clearly limited skating for more than half the year but recovered in that area later in the year.
Look forward to a more impactful player this season. Banging one in early would do wonders for confidence.
He can be banished to the pressbox though … this has been Babcock’s MO.
Frederic better come to camp in the best shape of his life, or he’s going to be eating popcorn all season long.
He was banished to the press box quite a bit last season.
I think he’ll be set up for more success this coming season, getting 5 months off (not 3), being healthy in the offseason and able to hockey train (as opposed to coming off playing on a badly sprained ankle for 2 month and having to rehab over the summer).
He was miscast to begin the year they had him with Leon-Connor which failed miserably. K.K got tired of his ineffective play and publicly fed him arguably to the toughest hombre of the league. That was K.K death wish I knew he lost 50% of the dressing room on that move alone. There’s a reason we couldn’t win 3 games in a row it’s because the cohesion we had the year before was completely undone on Frederic getting publicly being forced to fight Olivier. Game-Set-Match. Frederic will quietly do his job under Iron Mike who knows exactly what Frederic limitations are as I’m sure Mike has a file on every player.
If anyone forced that fight with Olivier, it was the media and the fans who were all over Frederic at the time – not the coach.
I remember and seen it differently. Anyhow It’ll be interesting to see how Babcock utilizes Frederic-Jones-Dach
What is there to “see differently” – you think Knob instructed him to go fight Olivier?
For a young man your memory isn’t up to snuff.K.K was going on and on about Frederic pregame. K.K challenged Frederic to do something the players and myself knew exactly what he meant. Frederic was struggling and K.K fed him to Olivier.
Doesn’t look like the kitty likes his nudes being on the internet.
Ville Koivunen got 8 x $4M. 23 years old. This sounds too smart by a hair.
47 games, 14 points, not particularly big.
Locking up non-core for max term is such a risk. Kyle either knows something we don’t know or he’s just intentionally screwing over everyone else’s cap with deals like this.
Maybe Kyle believed Kotkaniemi’s contract was the key to the ship.
Savoie’s number is only gonna go up. Call him up 8 x 6 or 7 and thank your lucky stars in year 3.
This was posted below but consider this:
JFresh
@JFreshHockey
Something to note on this contract – if the Pens buy him out in summer 2028, they’ll be on the hook for 12 seasons but the cap hit will never exceed $750K
there’s essentially a “get out of jail free” baked in if he actually doesn’t turn out to be a player in the next two seasons
Its always meaningful when a freshly new signed contract is rationalized by saying “the buyout won’t be that bad”.
It’s a contract that takes away a player’s motivation to achieve higher and higher levels.
If Koivunen scores 10-15 goals per year he gets to vacation in Finland every summer a very rich young man.
Better to sign these guys to 2-3 year deals so they motivate themselves to become 20+ goal scorers.
That’s an insane way to view the world.
Do you think Trent Frederic puts more or less time into offseason training now that he’s minted?
I think Frederic is a proud professional athlete that takes pride in his on ice performance. Off season training wasn’t a big thing years ago, but today’s NHL players take it very seriously and in no way would they let their team down.
Ya there may be a few slackers now (Laine)? But for the vast majority these guys are pros for a reason and keep each other in check when need be.
Okay but lets be real he let the team down massively in year 1. He gets a mulligan based on injury foot speed I guess but it’s extremely common for athletes to have great years in contract seasons.
John isn’t crazy that money is a massive motivator.
I suspect Frederic is absolutely busting his butt this offseason, trying to get back to where he needs to be to be a contributor. If he falters in 2026-27, I wouldn’t be surprised if it is from excessive training in the offseason and /or not enough rest and recovery.
Regarding John’s comments, I don’t know anything but I’ve always assumed a long term contract can go one of three ways…
(1) Player gets paid and stops caring as much (Laine was mentioned, does Dustin Penner fall into this camp – he always seemed to have strong underlying numbers but he didn’t seem to improve after he got to Edmonton?)
(2) Player gets paid and continues to try their best and continue to improve – almost as though the contract doesn’t impact their trajectory (e.g., Drai, McDavid – I can’t think of anyone who fits in this category who isn’t an all star player).
(3) Player gets paid and puts so much pressure on themselves, their play actually suffers despite them really wanting to get better (could Nurse fall into this category? I hope Frederic doesn’t fall into this category and last year was mostly injury-hangover).
But I’m not a psychologist and have no idea what the ratio is between the three buckets I listed above. My instinct (again, I don’t know anything) is that most NHL players got into the NHL by working insanely hard, steadily, and for a really long time, and mental health (as opposed to contract-driven apathy) or physical injury are the most likely reasons players may seem to not perform well enough after signing a long multi-year contract.
Agreed. Some NHL players, like Penner, became professionals because they were just really good at it and had a chance to make way more money. People make those decisions on smaller scales all the time. The work ethic to get there is never in question.
Not everyone who is in the NHL would say it was their dream, but because of how many would kill to be in their position they can never say otherwise.
Plus teams are all about ‘the room’ and having mercenaries goes against hockey tradition. You get the label as a money-only guy and you’ve just limited your earnings potentially ironically.
Penner has 2 Rings scored 30 plus goals one year. It’s a thankless job being a power forward yet every G.M drools over the next Cam Neely.
Proud of what?
Not as a hockey player, surely.
Kassian, who i loved, completely slumped as soon as he signed his 3 year contract. Kassian had to play with significant emotion to play well. He was in great shape but lost his competitive edge.
He hurt his back you can’t play the roll he had with a back that is shot.
Your hired as his new agent.
The amount of players and agents who haven’t figured this out, and that it costs them both success AND money is wild…
It just keeps happening.
Would you trade your hope in Frederic for hope in Kotkaniemi contract? Pretty even swap?
Who is more likely to recover and deliver?
Condors sign Tucker Robertson. 23 year old former 4th round pick. 13 goals last season. Middle sixth depth for the Condors I presume.
If Jarry beats Levi in camp the smart thing to do is go with three goalies,
If Levi beats Jarry in camp the smart thing to do is send Jarry down to work on his game.
Three legit out players in the press box is much better than two, with Jarry just hours from joining the team as a back up if needed.
There is no time for beating anything in camp and we also know the exhibition games performances mean all but nothing.
They have already stated expressly there will be 3 goalies at least to start. There is no chance Jarry is waived prior to getting NHL games, nor should he. It behooves them to see where his game has recovered to in the NHL.
If he’s shot after 5 or so starts, then this becomes an option.
Why do some folks want to put Jarry on waivers is it because Pittsburgh did it a few years ago. Levi will get his share to see where he’s at as a future starter after Jarry contact expires next year. Andersen will be a spot starter and ready for game 1 on home ice.
Some (many) think that Jarry is washed and the performance we saw as an Oiler this year is the performance we’ll see going forward. If that is the case, if this is another Jack Campbell situation, and there is no recovery to his game, then, yes, that will be the play.
Of course, I would suggest its reasonable to expect at least some level of positive regression (for many reasons: re-set for the player, most used to the new team, the team itself should provide a better “defensive environment”, etc., etc.). To what extent? We don’t know. Maybe he plays to a 0.873, maybe its a 0.892, maybe its a .902 or maybe even a .912 – we’ll find out.
The goaltending is fascinating to me, I really don’t know who starts game 1, Jarry or Andersen and have less of an idea who starts game 1 of the playoffs – Jarry, Andersen or Levi.
I could see the plan being to hope Jarry is the 1A but, at the same time, with Andersen having the history of being Babcock’s guy (to 60 starts a season), maybe he’s pencilled in as opening day and scheduled for 40 starts (he won’ start a ton, if Jarry is 1A, its more starts than Andersen as 1A).
I don’t know if Levi gets himself 9 starts or if he pushes and forces 28 – he may be the guy by February for all we know.
Bowman was caught with his pants he traded the beloved Skinner for a Goalie that actually was playing decent until the injury . I myself think Jarry was less than 80% when he returned and his lateral movement was stiff and restricted. The ironic thing is that’s why Skinner was traded because of his lateral movement. Getting Andersen for insurance is going to turn out to be what wins us the Cup. There is zero pressure on each goalie. I would love to see rotation like baseball. I’ve mentioned before but now you can send the 3rd Goalie on the back-to-backs a day ahead this would be brilliant use of the 3 headed Goddess. I think we play 8-9 back-to-backs this year same thing applies to the dreaded 3 games in 4 night nights. After we win the Cup with this strategy you’ll see teams 4-5 teams attempt the same thing the following year.
Disagree.
Andersen is injury prone. We don’t know if Jarry is 100% after his late season injury. Levi is young and likely to have variable performances.
This season is 84 games long, which will make rotating goaltenders instead of running them into the ground ever more important.
If Andersen needs to rest and recuperate between games, having Jarry up and available to practice with the team is important. He’s also going to be able to help mentor Levi.
84 games between two veterans and a newbie will probably play out at 15-20 for Levi, and 30ish each for the veterans. This sets up the team for riding the hot hand in the playoffs with either option able to step in comfortably should he be called upon.
100% but Ike Howard will get a chance to show what he can do, which is more than what Knoblauch did.
That’s going to be part of Babcock’s focus on winning. He’ll play young guys if they buy in and I suspect Howard is willing to buy in.
Knoblauch’s focus on winning wasn’t any different. He played Savoie, Samanski & Dach because they were willing to buy in. We will see what Howard will bring this year, but he won’t have much time to gain Babcock’s trust and whatever he did last season in the AHL won’t hold much water.
Howard showed the clear ability to “buy in” during his time as a Condor last year.
I have zero doubt his effort will be 100% and I don’t see why he would change his “away from the puck commitment” back in the NHL after working so hard on it in the AHL.
Ike Howard made bad situational mistakes that got him sent down. He was a liability defensively not from effort but from experience. In the appropriate league for developing he improved on that.
I think the expectations on him were too high. Him and Savoie expected to carry the load and make the leap isn’t reasonable. Would’ve been great, didn’t happen until late in the year. Not overwhelming players has value.
I bet Ike comes in with a chip on his shoulder, a clear plan on what he had to work on, and a tonne of confidence. Opposite Puljujarvi I’m all for it.
This is true but the three goalies in the roster than means it’s only one forward and there are 5 guys that have arguments for the last 3 forward spots.
Injury out of camp likely saves one spot but the conversation is real on which two are on the outs heading in to camp.
A key is the cap flexibility to replace a roster player when a short term IR injury happens. When a forward or a dman gets hurt there are legit replacement options and the cap space to make it happen.
Another signing that may be a harbinger of how the salary floor is changing.
The Penguins have just signed 23 year old Finnish winger Ville Koivunen to an 8 year extension at $4 million per.
He has only 37 NHL games and 14 points on his resume.
Matt Savoie’s agent must be licking his chops this morning.
James Mirtle
@mirtle
$32 million for a player with only 47 NHL games played and two goals. Guessing that’s a first.
*should be 47 GP
Yup, this only applies to Savoie and Oiler soon to be RFAs.
No, it applies to many forwards coming off their ELC’s.
Of note, Koivenen was drafted in the second round of the 2021 draft but, as often happens with Finns and Swedes, he did not play full time in North America until the 24/25 season which is when Savoie played his first full season in the AHL as well.
Koivunen actually outscored Savoie by a slim margin that season with 21G and 56P to Savoie’s 19G and 54P so it appears he would be a comparable talent if given equal opportunity.
Has there been any chatter about a Savoie extension and what that might look like?
What kind of question is this?
This community had quite a bit of discussion about that last week – you read it all – dishonest question, as per most of your posts.
Gerry Johansson as on Oilers Now last week and was asked about an extension – he said talks have not started yet but that is because the Oilers had been focussed on getting their team assembled for this season – he said he sees zero concern about getting an extension done with the Oilers, that Matt loves playing for the Oilers and they will get to it sooner rather than later.
I would suggest the general consensus is, if anything under $7MM they jump at for as many years as possible.
You often presume to speak for many.
Who….exactly…forms the “general consensus?
The opinions of the people involved in the exact discussion that was had on hear and on a few other platforms over the last few weeks. It was the clear majority opinion everywhere – you know it, you read it – you are just being intentionally adversarial as that is what you do.
You’re going to wind-up the Kool-Aid Clan Members.
“Matt Savoie’s agent must be licking his chops this morning.”
This reminds me of when you were saying Bouchard was not an NHL quality player and then jumped to “the player is going to want so much money!” without admitting it’s because they are good.
It’s also amusing how you were told many times this kind of thing would happen with a rising cap over the years, but you are acting like the “signs” are just showing themselves now.
Who could have seen that with a rising cap, teams would offer players more money and players would want more money? Crazy times, indeed!
This is a pretty bizarre contract for an unproven NHL player though, who was projected to get a 1-2 year “show me” deal for nothing close to $4m. It’s a gamble by the Pens for sure and will impact the market.
Yeah it seems excessive but perhaps Dubas has intel that we don’t.
If it works out, it could be a huge bargain and I suppose a $4 million cap hit will be chump change in a few years.
The signing comes on the heels of the Penguins signing C Tommy Novak to a 3 year deal at $4.65 million.
I’m very sure Dubas has intel we don’t. Time will tell. Novac’s deal is a fair price & term based on performance.
So you’re saying Fredrick is a bargain?
Frederic soon turns 29.
Pretty sure a 23 year old has more upside.
Normally I’d agree. However I believe a player with a few near 20 goal seasons recently and coming off a lingering injury has upside.
Almost any player would have upside after a 4 goal 7 point season.
However in his last season with Bruins he only scored 8 goals and 17 points. And non elite players tend to peak in their mid 29s
Agreed.
Mid 29s seems quite specific.
I guess that means Fred still has a little time.
If one was trying to be honest in discussion they would add the context that season was cut short due to injury. I mean, it wouldn’t even derogate from the overall point, his last season in Boston was a regression season – at the same time, the added information would be important – of course, there is not intent for honest discourse here.
it all depends on which team he is playing, right 😉 ?
JFresh
@JFreshHockey
Something to note on this contract – if the Pens buy him out in summer 2028, they’ll be on the hook for 12 seasons but the cap hit will never exceed $750K
there’s essentially a “get out of jail free” baked in if he actually doesn’t turn out to be a player in the next two seasons
Its always meaningful when a freshly new signed contract is rationalized by saying “the buyout won’t be that bad”.
It is bizarre, as are many bizarre contracts handed out by GMs over the years though.
But, notice the narrative HH is pushing now though “other non-Oiler GMs are very smart and see something we don’t and this is actually a bargain”.
If the Oilers did that deal, he would be saying “Oilers blow cap space on unproven player”.
If the Oilers sign Savoie for more, look out for the narrative to change again.
I can see Savoie signing a $4M contract but not for 8 years.
If Savoie is signing a $4MM AAV, its likely 1-2 years.
Anything at 5 years plus will be $6MM plus, I would think.
This is going to eat a ton of free cap space off the just rounding out rebuild with stacks of RFA contracts comimg up.
I can’t even imagime havimg to go long on grey area types let alone guys like gauthier.
Except Babcock has to develop Howard if he wants to win a Stanley Cup. Howard might fail, and then the Oilers will have to make a trade.
But there is not enough talent without playing Howard. So I think Babcock will figure out a way to use him…i.e. with controlled matchups on a line with Draisaitl. Howard will be the only rookie in the lineup.
Since the Oilers will play with more structure, it should make it easier for Howard to establish himself.
Many of the other options to Howard, without a trade being made, all come with flaws too.
If Howard cannot beat out the current alternatives to him this September and October, then trading for him was a blunder by Bowman.
Plenty of time between now and opening night.
And opening night to the end of the season. Savoie started really arriving by end of year. Surviving in the NHL is success and a feather in the cap.
Howard has already earned that spot with his season last year – camp proves nothing either way, even a longer camp let alone what we have this season.
Just lock in Howard and Podz as opening LW and Savoie and Hyman as opening right wing in the top six and let’s roll.
Howard has earned nothing at the NHL level.
I never said he did.
I’ve been very clear that he has earned the opportunity for a top 6 LW spot and he should be provided that opportunity.
Didn’t you just say “Howard has ALREADY earned that spot with his season last year”.
Exhibit one and exhibit 2 Just lock in Howard. One would assume it’s a forgone conclusion. I guess what you say and what you mean have multiple translations.
I mis-typed my intent – as I mentioned in another postI didn’t mean to say that he has earned that spot but that he has earned the opportunity and first reps at that spot. That has been my clear position all off-season.
I’ve also been clear that they can pivot away if they need to after 3, 5, 10, 20 games.
I would not say Howard has earned that spot. He had 5 points in 29 games in the NHL and then posted a pretty good season in the AHL. He’s earned the right to be considered for the NHL but his 50 points in 47 games is very similar to 5’10” Toni Rajala’s 45 points in 46 AHL games. Someone you called a “draft bust” had very similar numbers at the same age.
Howard has talent but he hasn’t earned a lock on a top-six spot on a Stanley Cup contender.
I didn’t mean to say that he has earned that spot but that he has earned the opportunity and first reps at that spot. That has been my clear position all off-season.
I don’t care how many points he got last October/November, I watched the player develop for 47 games in the AHL and he is not the same player now that he was last October.
I don’t think I’ve ever made a comment on Toni Rajala so please don’t make things up about what I called somebody. I also don’t care what a random prospect did in the AHL 13 years ago (and we don’t even need to get in to stats inflicted playing with Eberle and Schultz in the AHL, etc.).
In any event, the Oilers acquired Issac Howard to play in their top 6 going forward, he is their top respect, he get a cup of coffeee in the NHL (where his coach wouldn’t play him with offensive players because Ike hadn’t won enough board battles), he went down to Bako for 47 games, worked his ass off, asked the coaching staff to help develop his “away from the puck game”, did exactly that while being the top rookie point producer (rate) in the league.
That player has earned the opportunity to play in the role he was acquired for, at a substantial cost. Of course, if he’s not ready, if he’s making bad mistakes over and over, etc., you can pivot off after 5, 7, 15 games, whatever – but it behooves the org to provide the opportunity he earned last season. Nothing in camp should change that.
No, the Coach won’t lock-in his top 6 wingers before the players he will start the season with have been confirmed.
Of course, presuming no player transactions between now and camp.
He has a short camp to work with and only 4 exhibition games – there isn’t really any time for “tryouts” and I would think he has at least a back of the napkin line deployment strategy in mind.
Do you think Babcock will spoon feed Howard?
I think Babcock is going to play him on left wing with Draisaitl with controlled matchups or he will be in Bakersfield, and it will have been another Bowman failed trade to add to his growing list.
Babcock didn’t come here to develop Ike Howard, he came here to win a Stanley Cup.
With the current roster, Babcock cannot win the Cup without developing Howard. One defacto rookie is doable.
Babcock plays a structured system, so it should be much easier for Howard to slot in.
and playing a highly skilled, developed, top prospect in the org, in a position to succeed, while coaching him, would be concussive to winning a Stanley Cup, perhaps multiple Stanley Cups.
If you take the Oilers current top 12 Forwards & 6 Defenceman and use their goal scoring rate from last year and translate it to 82 GP per player, they end up with 296 goals on the season. At 75 GP it’s 271 goals (good enough for top-ten).
They’ll add someone at some point but top third in scoring is a lot of talent and with improved goaltending is good enough for opening night.
I applaud your sensibility.
Stauff has been saying its a stone cold lock they’ll add a top 6 forward in-season – alludes to using accrued cap space, etc.
Makes sense. More good players added, resulting in changes to the existing lineup.
Are the cat photos recent? I did notice yesterdays and a follow up for today. I hope all is well, she/he is a beautiful cat, even if a run in with some clippers has occurred.
I’d say one year or so for the cat photos. They arrived in the house last June and I love them.
In the 1980s, there was a ‘cup or bust’ mentality around the organization. It helped that they had young superstars and development was happening in step with great success.
That mentality shifted during the lean years of the 2000s. It became more about survival and development given the financial distress of the org.
The first 10 years of McDavid has been a mixed bag of approaches. There hasn’t been a consistent plan given the GM and coach turnover. But now, it seems everyone is back to the ‘cup or bust’ mentality.
But the league has changed and youth is being served so I have no idea what to expect!
Nailed it LT. I can’t wait for the season to get going, although I don’t like winter, a conundrum. Things should be quite different, which is good. Things felt stale last season, and for me the plan was off