Byron Bader does great work at Hockey Prospecting, finding comparable players from the past to offer some clues about an unwritten future. In the case of recent Oilers first-round selection Reid Schaefer, Bader’s model shows a 12 percent chance of a star and a 44 percent chance of an NHL player. Among a list of several options, I chose Steve Konowalchuk, who played in the NHL for about 10 years worth of games and averaged around 40 points. I think most fans of Edmonton’s NHL team would consider that a strong payoff for the No. 32 overall pick in the 2022 draft.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: 5 times Oilers management mishandled Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
JESSE PULJUJARVI COMPS
- RW Jesse Puljujarvi 2021-22 (23) 65 games, 14-22-36 (.554)
- LC Alexander Kerfoot 2017-18 (23) 79 games, 19-24-43 (.544)
- RC Elias Lindholm 2017-18 (23) 81 games, 16-28-44 (.543)
- LC Christian Dvorak 2019-20 (23) 70 games, 18-20-38 (.543)
- LW Jake DeBrusk 2019-20 (23) 65 games, 19-16-35 (.538)
- LC Mikael Granlund 2015-16 (23) 82 games, 13-31-44 (.537)
- LC Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2016-17 (23) 82 games, 18-25-43 (.524)
The players who have been on a downbeat since 23 on this list are Christian Dvorak. This is a nice list of comparables, and I do think that Jesse Puljujarvi is a solid bet over the next several seasons. Is it possible he blossoms like Elias Lindholm? Yes, if he plays on the McDavid line. I think it’s entirely possible. The six players listed here as comparable to JP averaged the following boxcars at 24: 67 games, 19-28-47. That’s worth more than $3 million.
KAILER YAMAMOTO COMPS
- RW Kyle Palmieri 2014-15 (23) 57 games, 14-15-29 (.509)
- RC Nick Bjugstad 2015-16 (23) 67 games, 15-19-34 (.507)
- RW Kailer Yamamoto 2021-22 (23) 81 games, 20-21-41 (.506)
- RC Vinnie Hinnostroza 2017-18 (23) 50 games, 7-18-25 (.500)
- LW Reilly Smith 2014-15 (23) 81 games, 13-27-40 (.494)
- RW Daniel Sprong 2020-21 (23) 42 games, 13-7-20 (.476)
The Yamamoto comps offer a slight downbeat compared to Puljujarvi and a (mostly) lower ceiling. Among the five comparables we see, the players averaged the following at age 24: 71 games, 18-18-36.
EVAN BOUCHARD COMPS
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2013-14 (22) 80 games, 15-29-44 (.550)
- Mikhail Sergachev 2020-21 (22) 56 games, 4-26-30 (.536)
- Evan Bouchard 2021-22 (22) 81 games, 12-31-44 (.531)
- Dougie Hamilton 2015-16 (22) 82 games, 12-31-44 (.524)
- Cam Fowler 2013-14 (22) 70 games, 6-30-36 (.514)
Evan Bouchard is in some great company here, and even more encouraging I had to expand the search by a season in order to find four comparable players. That means he is somewhat unique, always a good thing. The four comps at 24: 80 games, 13-29-42, or close to the identical numbers Bouchard posted last season. This is terrific company.
RYAN MCLEOD COMPS
- LC Ryan McLeod 2021-22 (22) 71 games, 9-12-21 (.296)
- LW Andrew Mangiapane 2018-19 (22) 44 games, 8-5-13 (.295)
- LW Viktor Arvidsson 2015-16 (22) 56 games, 8-8-16 (.286)
- RC Jayce Hawryluk 2018-19 (22) 42 games, 7-5-12 (.286)
- RW Tomas Jurco 2014-15 (22) 63 games, 3-15-18 (.286)
Ryan McLeod’s comparables are a mixed bag, as one might expect. Offensively, the pool at 22 is large and not everyone who posts .296 points-per-game at that age has a significant NHL career. The presence of Mangiapane and Arvidsson on this list is wildly encouraging. The average for the four men listed here, age 23: 55 games, 14-14-28. McLeod has more range than the other center on this list, I expect him to have a future that involves several seasons as a regular.
NEW for The Athletic: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises. All it takes is opportunity, and a spark.
https://theathletic.com/3461097/2022/07/30/lowetide-training-camp-surprises-edmonton-oilers/
Excellent work on this Al.
I get paid over $85 per hour working from home with 2 kids at home. I never thought I’d be able to do it but my best friend earns over 10k a month doing this and she convinced me to try. The potential with this is endless.
Here’s what I’ve been doing… http://www.Jobs234.com
RickiBear what do you think about Kulak?
https://theathletic.com/3449637/2022/07/27/tkachuk-florida-panthers-trade-rivalry-lightning/
Interesting article for those who have access. Kind of suggesting Tkachuk’s personally is as important to the Panthers as his on ice ability is, and/or their chance of competing for the cup.
Not in a position to post today…. But just had to jump in to announce
BREAKING NEWS!
A&W is bringing back the Whistle Dog !!!!
That’s Right! A wiener and BACON!
Hey Phil Kessel……A&W | 10205 – 102 Ave, Edmonton
Just 2 blocks from Rogers Place!
Let’s start a GO Fund Me made up entirely of A&W coupons (that sh*ts not in the CBA)
IIRC it’s a weiner, bacon and CHEESE! I love these, make them at home all the time.
I remember when they gotza the mozza…… the salad days of my youth…..
Do these comparables have much value when they don’t take into account average scoring in a particular year (e.g. 2015/16 there was an average of 2.71 GPG and in 2021/22 it was 3.14 GPG) or quality of teammates (e.g. is Jesse’s production higher by virtue of playing a significant amount of his minutes with Connor and Leon vs Lindholm and whoever he was playing with)? I think adjustments could be made to the approach to make these of more value, although admittedly I’m not familiar with the overall parameters of these comparables.
One can parse the data further and provide the information if they want to…..?
In fact, I did post earlier this morning who Lindholm was playing with (and posted some PP context on the comparison with OEL).
These comparables can also be very unfair to young players on stacked teams.
For example, after Shea Theodore was drafted in 2013, the Ducks D was stacked and he didn’t get a real opportunity until he was moved to Vegas where he thrived.
Except that he didn’t deserve to make the Ducks D and didn’t make the golden knights team off the bat either and was shuffled between the Ahl affiliate where he only played 8 games but shuffling cost him nhl games and only got into 60 games when he finally settled. But sure let’s all live in HH island of make belief to fit narratives
Any adjustment made to make a level playing field has value. I’m not blessed with the time to do it, so run these numbers straight up. That said, it would make the totals more true.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics….
Puljujarvi may lead the league in Internet discussion per point. Certainly Mitch Marner would provide stiff competition.
Jesse is like Aaron Rodgers without the elite level production. One wonders what his teammates think of the drama.
Yak Attack still leads in career NHL Goals 62 to 46. Does Jesse score 17 this year and overtake our favourite child?
Puljujarvi may lead the league in Internet discussion per point. Certainly
John Scott says hi!
(Greetings from London).
Puljujarvi may have a lot of overall internet discussions per point but he still trails Benson in Lowetide discussions per point.
Pronman saying the delay in Team Canada’s roster might have alot to do with kids that were on the original team that are likely choosing not to attend given the timing of the tournament right before camp.
Bourgault, for example, may not attend based off of his verbal at development camp (which Nugent-Bowman reminded us today).
Given I’ve bought medal package tickets, selfishly, I hope Bourgault does attend. I know there is an outside shot at an NHL job out of camp and, even if he is unlikely to make the team, he surely wants to show well, etc.
One would think that getting the tournament in would actually help the players be more “game ready” for camp but, of course, the injury risk is real.
Not to mention, Bourgault didn’t skate at development camp – he’s still not 100% from the season.
Yeah in a vacuum you’d like to see the kid play, and it seems like it would be a good ramp-up for Oilers camp.
That core injury from last season HAS to be fully healed though. That’s priority #1.
Bourgault’s last game was on Jun 27, barely a month ago. Playing through an injury. He definitely will benefit from recovery / down time.
Discretion is the better part of valour re: the World Juniors, which has not been kind to Oilers hopefuls in recent years (all of Bourgault, Holloway, & Broberg all suffered injuries right here in Edmonton the past 2 years = ~1.3 actual tournaments).
but, but, but what about an Eberle moment…..?
I’ve turned in to a big Ryan McLeod fan – part of the reason is that I was so hard on him at the beginning of last season as I didn’t see any real progression in the “areas of need” through camp and early in the season. The, after recall, he showed material progression in those areas and continued progression in his higher skill set areas (transition).
I’m now a big fan at am fully ready to say he can play at least 3C in this league, nightly, for the next decade.
At the same time, I’m not sure I see his offence spiking like Mangiapane or Arvidson – that’s fine though, lower box-cars but a material player – that helps cap strcuturing.
Speaking of McLeod, cap structuring and Mangiapane, I’m going to re-post something I posted the other day as its applicable (I think).
Lostening to Darren Haynes speak about the Mangiapane contract negotiations and it seems there may be some lingering hard feelings from earlier negotiations. Coming off his ELC, flames management really really grinded him. They refused to even go up to $750K. The player held out for $750K and even missed much of camp and lost – the org wouldn’t go higher than $700K.
I’ve heard rumblings from Gregor (and others) that the Oilers may really grind McLeod, like in the $900K range.
I really hope they don’t do that. Its insulting in my mind. This player has earned a nice raise in the $400K range – pay him $1.25MM and keep relationships where they need to be.
I know cap is tight but I don’t think grinding this kid to a less then $50K raise (if it was $900K) is good for business.
$1 million has a nice ring to it.
I’d almost prefer it to be $1.2M just to show good faith – call in the Samorukov vs. Koekkoek cap delta.
The Bruce idea is a nice compromise!
Perhaps a handshake deal where he signs for one year at 900, with the promise to re-sign for the extra term and dollars after Jan 1 to compensate? one year at 900, sign Jan 2 for 2 more at a preagreed 1.25 per. total is 3.4, leaves him at 1 year to FA I believe….
If he’s willing to commit for 3 years at $3.4 you gotta sign that thing before the close of business & work out the minor cap implications later.
No doubt that deal is signed instantly if McLeod is willing (which I don’t imagine he would be).
I can’t believe the down votes. As a fan base we’ve seen this movie before and it seems to always end the same way. The Nurse contract is a prime example!
Ryan McLeod skates effortlessly through the opposition into the offensive zone like McDavid; so much so that unless you read their numbers you might think its the same player.
I am predicting a 30 goal player once he settles down a bit.
I agree with the first sentence – sometimes I mistake McLeod for McDavid in in transition as well.
I don’t see McLeod ever being a 30 goal scorer in the NHL and he may max out as a 35-40 point guy – which is not an issue at all.
McLeod is a smart player. Smart players have the ability to develop farther than the usual suspects.
He could break out this season. That McDavid influence : p
He’s Todd Marchant reincarnated.
I’ll take that all day long. Marchant was a helluva player.
He’s a smart player who has been a bit shy offensively dating back to his junior career.
He did show a bit more offensive flash and vision in the offensive zone this past year than I expected but, overall, I don’t see him as a big goal scorer or point producer.
I hope he does “pop offensively” but its not really his game and that’s fine. He’s got many valuable skills that will help this team contend.
Grinding young NHLers is part of winning is it? We have heard others talk about needless Gryba buy out, sweeteners to move Lucic, slight over pays to get Foegele as problems in the past, why is young McLeod view in a different light?
I explained my reasoning on this in this post.
They “grinded” Yamamoto to $1.175MM last off-season season and I think that would be very reasonable for McLeod for the coming season. No need to insult the kid by refusing to give him more than an $37,500 raise on his past season’s comp – he’s earned it.
Yamamoto had scored 95 20-32-52 on his entry deal when he signed for $1.175M.
McLeod has scored 81 9-13-22 at this point. I think it pretty reasonable he comes in a bit lower, if not quite $900k low.
This is true but, I would retort with:
1) the majority of the point delta was the few month heater when he played with Nuge and Drai and he signed that contract coming off a down season with only 16 5 on 5 points.
2) Note that McLeod have 16 5 on 5 points this past season.
3) Yamamoto was only used as a very very depth PK guy prior to that 2nd contract whereas McLeod was used at over a minute per game during the regular season and that skyrocketed to 2:20 per game in the playoffs.
4) McLeod plays mostly center, generally the “more valuable” position.
Straight points during their ELCs doesn’t tell their full value stories, in my opinion
Sure, but Yamamoto had fully 2.5 times as many points on his ELC as McLeod.
Yamamoto scored those 16 5v5 points in his final ELC season in 52 games vs. 71 for McLeod. Yamamoto had 40 5v5 points total on his ELC, McLeod 17.
Yamamoto played basically all of his games in the top 6, and played about 16 minutes a night. McLeod was mostly bottom 6 and averaged less than 13 minutes a game.
I don’t think there’s much question an arbitrator would award Yamamoto a bigger salary if they’d been eligible for that coming off ELC.
I was interrupted while typing mine so hadn’t refreshed to see yours, so similar themes to yours.
The few month heater counts. That’s like saying Jesse should get no credit for his first 2 months this season. An arbitrator would just look at total data and not adjust for any streaks or slumps. Plus Yamamoto would have played 36 more games if not for Covid truncating the last two seasons of his ELC. McLeod still would have been a late call up last season.
I like McLeod a lot, but he has not proven himself quite to the same level as Yamamoto did on his ELC. Besides the points, which are a legitimate difference, he is more adept at keeping the play alive and/or getting the puck back in the offensive zone. Despite being small, he out hits McLeod by a 3/1 ratio and his hits are effective forechecking hits. He gives it away almost half as much and he still carries it a fair amount. Yamamoto also blocks more shots per 60.
Yes, the heater counts but it was the previous year – Yamamoto regressed materially offensively in his last year of his ELC.
No doubt that Yamamoto established himself more offensively during the totality of his ELC but I would think that the most credence would be given to the final year before re-signing and their offensive years in their contract years were more comparable and, given quality of linemate, I’m not sure Yamamoto’s final ELC year was that much more impressive – add the fact that McLeod is a center and has turned in to a big time PK guy. In the playoffs, he was 2nd among forwards in PK TOI/G, 7 seconds less than Nuge – that’s massive.
I don’t disagree with either of you, really, but this player should be on this team in the middle six for the next decade and I think he’s earned more than a $37,500 raise and something approaching what Kailer got and I’ve got future contract negotiations and good faith in mind.
Holland is fully aware of the long term as well, but also had to fit players under the 2022/23 cap and despite what some say, he is also aware of the impact of even $200,000 to $300,000 when things are as tight as they are. I doubt Holland is burning any bridges if McLeod signs for $1 million or less.
When looking at Bouch’s offensive comparables, it likely makes sense to factor in PP time as well. In the comparable OEL season, OEL had over 4 minutes per game on the PP and had 22 of his points on the PP.
What Bouch did last season at evens is under-rated, in my opinion.
Believe it was 4th or 5th Highest even strength point totals in decades for the young defender comparables.
I’ve tried evens, five-on-five, and believe overall works best. When we parse, there’s always factors. For instance, Bouchard benefited from 568 minutes with Connor McDavid, and in those minutes scored 7-16-23. In over 1,000 minutes away from 97, he posted 5-15-20.
At even strength, it was 5-15-20 in 505 minutes with McDavid and 5-10-15 without 97 in 850 minutes.
Agree he had a fantastic season and his future is very bright.
Great article. Thanks for the comparables. It really puts certain things into perspective.
You’re not just a writer and journalist, you’re an educator.
Wait, a European drafted player that just scored 40 goals and had Selke votes (real Selke votes) produced at essentially the exact same levels as Jesse when he was 23…….?
Keep this player.
I agree.
Small anecdote. I was in San Jose several years ago to watch the Condors and Barracuda duke it out. Second period, Condors down by several, SJ take a penalty with about 4 seconds left. I’m thinking, “cool, Condors will have almost a full two min pp to start the 3rd”.
Puck gets dropped, straight back to Puljujarvi, one-timer, goal.
Skate to centre ice, two seconds left in the period.
Beautiful snipe.
Condors go on to lose 7-1, so all I’m left with is that goal.
Great story.
I can’t wait to watch some Condors when they come down here to Calgary.
The wife and I do make long weekend trips to California fairly regularly – we LOVE Disneyland.
I’ve yet to be able to convince her to take a drive to Bakersfield and watch an AHL hockey game…
if you time it right, Ontario reign are not far from Anaheim and of course Palm Springs will have the Firebirds soon. I went to a game in Ontario a couple years back, small crowds and decent arena, It was the Brandon Manning game and i was right behind the penalty box. Bruce even interviewed me. I have since been told what Manning said but have been sworn to secrecy.
I’m not sure an AHL hockey game in Ontario, California, is much more tantalizing to the wife than one in Bakersfield……..
This is good info though – it would be a boys trip as opposed to a disney get away with the wife.
Of note, in that season, Lindholm played with Skinner and Aho and Faulk and Slavin were his most common d-man – top line.
He also had 2:36 seconds per game on the PP in that season……
Having the team’s first round pick not a lock to ever be an every day NHL player is taking some getting used to. I look forward to it continuing.
I do like the Schaefer pick, the kid looks like a giant and, of course, there is skill, but like the attitude and I like the fact that (a) he showed large in-season development and (b) he noted a deficiency (his shot), worked on it and made it a plus skill.
Great job to get him under contract – here is hoping he plays for Canada in December/January and I love when ELCs slide while a player plays in the AHL as he will next season.
Draft, develop, stay patient!
Of note, in that season, Lindholm played with Skinner and Aho and Faulk and Slavin were his most common d-man – top line.
He also had 2:36 seconds per game on the PP in that season……
Listening to Friedman and Marek from yesterday and Elliotte mentioned that a few people contacted him to ask about signing bonus vs. salary on Jesse and were surprised that there wasn’t a big signing bonus component (as it would make him cheaper in cash dollars to acquire and, although they didn’t mention this, it would make his QO for next season lower).
Perhaps the structure of the contract makes it more likely that the Oilers keep this player? Then again, while perhaps Lehto and Jesse wanted the bigger base salary to put a min on his QO for next season and wouldn’t agree to a signing bonus structure (which would also be odd, bonus is alway good, upfront money).
Bonus money protects against a buyout. No bonus money means the QO next year is maximized. There is no buyout threat. So the only incentive is to maximize next years QO.
The time value of bonus money over less than 12 months is minimal.
I understand that.
That doesn’t change the premise that bonus money, and lower salary, could have been structured if the goal of team and player was a trade.
Nah…a low salary gives the Oilers the leverage. A higher QO gives Jesse the leverage. The Oilers can always retain salary in a trade. The higher QO means that the Oilers have to pay him next year at least the QO or he becomes a UFA a year early,
The higher QO puts Holland on the clock. A low QO means Holland can dither for longer.
As far as a team trading for Jesse Puljujarvi for this season, there was an argument, that a signing bonus component, lowering his cash outlay for a team acquiring him and the potential qualifying offer, would be more attractive to potential acquiring teams.
I understand the salary and what it means for a qualifying offer and what Puljujarvi would want vis-a-vis a one-year contract expiry but that doesn’t change the premise of the argument.
If both parties really wanted to do everything they could to consummate a trade and still get the man his $3MM for this year, there were other structures that would have been better.
I can’t imagine Katz is thrilled with the idea of paying bonus money to a guy who doesn’t even play for him. He got a bellyful of that with Lucic in 2019.
Is this the full set of comps for Puljujarvi/Yamamoto?
I’m also seeing guys like Wennberg, Rask, Gaudette, Gurianov, Greenway, McCann, Johansson also as comps for Puljujarvi, but not sure what criteria you used.
We certainly should expect a bit better comps for Puljujarvi vs. Yamamoto though, since Puljujarvi had a better pts/game at essentially the same age.
It’s “same age, one season” from 2015-16 and I adjusted if required to get five or six comps. I stayed tight in points-per-game, suspect that makes up for the difference in our lists. I could have done career, but both JP and KY suffer because the organization elevated them too early.
Thanks.
I was looking at just one season also, +/- 0.030 pts/game, age 23, though back to 13-14.
I try not to exceed the player in question, as in ideally he would be the highest number with comparables below. Doesn’t always work out, because I’m looking for a range, but that is a goal when doing this kind of thing. That may also have contributed to our different lists.
Yes, that makes sense.
I enjoyed this LT… great work!
I was wrong about Duncan Keith.
One year for him was worth it, even if I complained bitterly at no cap retention.
I don’t deserve Duncan and Ken was right.
just had to get that off my chest.
I think a lot of us were in that same boat!!!
I’m sure many Oilers fans absolved their sins through confession on this one
I think many people forget that Caleb Jones played 2LD for us in being swept by the Jets in the first round before Holland got Keith. It was a glaring hole that was filled well enough to make the final four last year. Now we look to Kulak and the youths.
Jones was a healthy scratch for the whole Jets series, in favor of Kulikov, Russell and Koekkoek.
But point taken and agreed, there was a huge hole at 2LD in 20-21.
My bad, I was thinking of the previous years loss to the Hawks. Although that’s clearly because I purged Koekkoek and Kulikov against the Jets from my mind.
There is no doubt that Keith was an upgrade over Jones and made the team better.
Take contracts out of it and the acquisiton cost of Jones and a 3rd rounder for Keith is a big win for the Oilers.
Of course, the question was always if $5MM could have been spent “better?
While Keith wasn’t “that far off” of $5MM of value, clearly $5MM could have brought “more” – problem is how.
Trying to sign a 2LD in free agency – well, that’s going to be a multi-year commitment at, likely, an overpay – as one example.
We may have hit a home-run in Kulak this free agency period but we’ll see – he’s no lock to be better than Keith was given he’ll be asked to play minutes he’s never played and tougher minutes.
My concern with the Keith cap hit was always the second year, especially with Nurse & others in line for a big raise. His retirement resolved what could have been a massive headache in 2022-23.
His play was a mixed bag, but I do think Bouchard in particular will benefit from the experience with (and of) his HHoF partner.
Agree completely, as this off-season would have been ugly without his cap space. However, it’s an important spot on the roster and we have to wait to see Kulak do the job at Keith’s level.
We must live in alternate universes, in mine Jones has played 2 games of uninspiring playoff hockey.
This is why it would be very foolish to trade Jesse.
Obviously Jesse has great potential. Big question is does he really dislike being an Oiler? Does he not mesh well with teammates? Lots of speculation and we likely don’t get some of those answers until he is gone. Trading a 4 th over all pick for a second round draft pick would be disappointing.
Every picture we see with Jesse is with random folks, none of him at Hyman’s golf tourney. There were a lot of Oilers there, no Jesse. I don’t know what the team dynamic is, I’m not in the room but I always find that Jesse seems like an outsider on the team. I could most certainly be wrong, it’s just an observation.
The players for the tournament are all Ontario products I believe. I wouldn’t read too much into it!
All the players that went to Hyman’s tourney were from Ontario or had roots/family there. Leon, Nuge, Kane, Yamo and plenty others weren’t there. Quite a few Euro players head home for the summer to be with family. I wouldn’t read much into that.
Funny that you mention that. On the cult of hockey podcast Staples and McCurdy mentioned how Holland was assembling a team where the players liked one another and genuinely wanted to play with one another.
If JP doesn’t ‘fit’ that narrative then perhaps that would explain certain things. I’m not sure but it’s certainly food for thought.
That was me who brought it up. I was highlighting the stark contrast between Peter “Let’s Overpay For Connor’s Worst Enemy” Chiarelli and Ken “Let’s Bring In All Of Connor’s Training Buddies” Holland.
By no means will that group extend to all 23 players, but there is a critical mass of Ontario boys with McDavid, Nurse, Hyman, Foegele, Shore, Ceci, Bouchard, McLeod & now Campbell (who has Toronto “roots” now even if he is an American). But if Holland’s choice comes down to dumping Puljujarvi or Foegele, might it be a factor?
Jesse is back home in Europe, as most native Europeans are.
Of note, you didn’t see Drai or any other Europeans there – this is prime, “back home time” before they start to get ready to come back in late August and early Sept.
We know that Jesse isn’t “buddy buddy” with the leadership core but that’s fine, all teams have various differ cliques, etc. – no everyone is besties. I don’t see any indication that he’s an issue or not liked generally.
Wouldn’t think that golf would be a big thing for a Finnish person. It would be nice if he partook to be more inclusive with the team, but his upbringing was likely vastly different from North American folk.
Temmu Selanne takes major offence to this…..
I’m just going by what I read and hear but I don’t see any indication that Jesse dislikes being an Oiler or dislikes the team, his teammates, management or the city.
I fully believe the verbal that “he’d be open to a move and a fresh start” but that does not equate to not being happy to return or really wants out.
As far “trading a 4th overall pick…..”, at this point I think his draft pedigree is mostly a non-factor. I can even make an argument that it hurts his value as he’s thought of as a disappointment, which is true relative to draft position, but he should be analyzed and valued based on performance and trajectory.
I know there’s pain, but why do you lock yourself up in these chains?
Some day somebody’s gonna make you want to turn around and say goodbye – Until then, don’t let ’em hold you down and make you cry.
Meaning? Enjoy the Bison King while we have him. The hockey gods know the plan, we just need to give him the proverbial “one more day” to live up to his potential.
Interesting read and highly encouraging.
Watching Reid Schaefer, he certainly flashes a lot of skill and that shot is a weapon and when combined with his size and physicality, I think he will surprise.
My expectation is that he will produce more goals than Zack Kassian, who is faster, but was a 13th Overall pick in a solid draft year.
I estimate he will have his first 20 goal season in 5 years, with the potential to be a consistent 30 goal guy, if he receives consistent top 6 minutes.
Excellent bet for a 32nd overall in a “meh” draft year, IMO.
Schaefer’s kicker is that this past season was really his first full year in the WHL. For him to spike as he did was impressive. No guarantees but it’s a good arrow.