At the 2022 NHL draft, the Edmonton Oilers chose Samuel Jonsson No. 158 overall. There were goalies with better numbers still on the board, but Jonsson is 6.05, 201 and still a teenager. How do we evaluate goalies, aside from listing their height and weight? Do performance numbers matter? What the hell, man?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: 5 times Oilers management mishandled Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
SWEDISH JR GOALIES RANKED BY SAVE PERCENTAGE
Jonsson played in the Swedish junior league last season (J20 Nationell). Here are the goalies (age 17) who played more than 15 games in 2022-23, with their save percentage and height, weight.
- Lukas Swedin .921 5.07, 126
- Hugo Havelid .920 5.10, 170
- Carl Lido .915 5.11, 187
- Albin Boija .910 6.0, 181
- Alexander Hellnemo .900 5.11, 174
- Nils Wallstrom .899 6.03, 185
- Samuel Jonsson .883 6.05, 201 (Edmonton, No. 158 in 2022)
- Vilgot Holm .881 6.0, 165
- Hubert Forsberg-Zetterstrom .877 6.02, 187
I had Havelid No. 45 on my list, and he didn’t get drafted. Jonsson went to Edmonton late. What makes him unique? The first thing we can identify is his size. He’s taller and weighs more than the rest in this group. Also, he played 31 games (second to Holm on this list) for a poor team and that stands out (plenty of minutes). His team’s backup had an inferior save percentage (.865).
I’m interested in Edmonton’s priorities in this area. Don’t get me wrong, I went looking for Keven Bouchard’s unique qualities in 2014 and found nothing, so this is better. However, in 2019 the same Oilers scouts chose a small goalie in Ilya Konovalov (6.0, 194) who had a strong KHL save percentage (.930). They flushed him after one AHL season.
One goalie who does have some things in common with Jonsson? Stuart Skinner. He is 6.04, 206 (about the same size) and his save perentage in his draft year (.905) ranked him No. 3 among WHL goalies age 17. Skinner was rated a little higher, but he also played for a better team. Jonsson could emerge as an NHL player, but I think Konovalov was a more promising player on his draft day. Agree?
1981 WHL GOALIES (AGE 17) SORTED BY SAVE PERCENTAGE
- Grant Fuhr .908 5.11, 184
- Todd Lombard .882 6.0, 180
- Mike Vernon .880 5.09, 170
- Jim Rodgers .835 6.0, 165
- Cam Sebastion .827 5.09, 170
- Glen Wilson .818 6.0, 170
This makes sense to me. Fuhr was far and away the best goalie in the WHL, he showed it at age 16 (.911 SP) and proved it in his draft year. I know athletes with size are all the rage, but would like to believe there’s room for someone 5.11, 184 as an NHL starter.
EDMONTON’S CURRENT DEPTH CHART IN GOAL
Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner are a completely fresh goaltending tandem, and the organization no doubt hopes for more consistency. I think it’s a reasonable bet, while also understanding the Cam Talbot bet was a better one seven years ago. Calvin Pickard is a solid No. 3 option, and the organization badly needs someone among Ryan Fanti and Olivier Rodrigue to emerge this season as a quality AHL goalie.
2019 RE-DRAFT
Scott Wheeler has his 2019 re-draft out today, it is here. He has Philip Broberg in the first round, but sliding. The reason I mention the list is Arthur Kaliyev’s ranking (No. 13 by Wheeler, in 2019 and now) on the list. I had him No. 5 on my list, and took plenty of criticism for it online. I’m confident Wheeler and I have completely different evaluation processes, but both of us had Kaliyev as a higher ranked player than the spot he landed (No. 33 overall). The Los Angeles Kings got him, Rob Vollman no doubt involved in the process.
My book (out in September pre-order here) spends significant time on the math of the draft, and men like Kaliyev. It’s astounding how often a team will discount real talent for reasons. That’s why a player like Kailer Yamamoto was such an outlier, such a massive moment of progress, for this organization. The Oilers have been solid at the draft table since 2015, at times inspired. I hope they were inspired in choosing Samuel Jonsson, but my friend math keeps staring at Hugo Havelid.
The Cam Talbot bet was decent (he’s a good 1B on a defensively sound team). He turned out about as well as could be expected and was a product of Allaire and the NYR system.
As LMHF#1 said…”goalies are more eye test, fit, personality and psychology than other positions”. The qualitative analysis needed to identify goalies with the right mental makeup is not voodoo – you can do it well or poorly – it’s just hard to do on 17 year olds. The mental side of playing goal is absolutely key and developing the necessary high level of focus and concentration takes years. Sure elite physicality can take you to a high level short-term – but you have to have an equally elite mental game to stay there. It’s not voodoo as some teams (eg NYR, Montreal, Nashville) constantly pump out quality netminders) while others (eg EDM) have been constant failures. Holland (ex-goalie) seems to have have a pretty good feel for this and I’ve been encouraged by the guys he’s chased (Markstrom, Kuemper, Campbell).
Skinner will be fine – Talbot level 1B and maybe more.
Canada names the World Junior team. To no surprise, Bourgault has decided not to attend.
Interesting that Mason McTavish is attending.
Good call for The Bourg. He could use more time to summon his healing powers so he can dominate the AHL (Assimilation Hockey League).
I tried resisting from laughing but it was a futile attempt
As soon as LT referenced Wheeler’s re-draft, I knew the PR campaign would commence.
in the meantime, for many in here the Great Trevor Zegras coming in at number 2 is no surprise.
We are going to watch him ( Zegras) light up the league for years.
Personally, Broberg seems to be a good player. But I don’t quite see
a high ceiling. ( could be wrong)
Have you watched much of Broberg play in North America?
Broberg had 1 point more than Holloway, in two fewer games on Bakersfield. He’s a gifted skater, and finished 10th in AHL ppg for defensemen in his 20yr old season, playing on a team that only finished 15th in goals scored.
Personally, I’d put his ceiling at Jay Bouwmeester’s level, which is a pretty nice ceiling.
I have actually used Jay B. as a style comparison for Broberg in the past.
That would be a grand slam outcome, that’s for sure. Jay B.’s career was highly under-rated, in my opinon.
Most Calgary fans felt Bouwmeester underperformed for his contact and his number 3 draft pick. Flames didn’t receive much in the trade with St.Loo.
Sucks do be a Flames fan doesn’t it? Florida loved him, and were sad they walked him to free agency. St. Louis also loved having him and he was a big part of their cup winning team. He also won an Olympic gold medal with Team Canada in 2014 one year after the Flames traded him. He played first pair minutes for most of his 1,240 game career including right up to that cup victory just shy of his 36th birthday. He also got Norris votes when he played for Florida (07 & 09) and again with St. Louis (14).
Not so.
He was actually 16th in PPG by defensemen and finished far back of Jordan Spence of the Kings who was drafted in the 4th round of the same draft.
While Broberg only played 31 games, its ridiculous to include players who played 1, 2, 5 and 8 games in your list. But you do you.
Do you know why they played fewer games in the AHL?
Among rookies, Broberg was No. 5 in the AHL in points-per-game. He did this at 20.
Scott Perunovich, age 23, finished first.
Jack Rathbone, 22, finished second.
Jordan Spence, 20, finished third.
Daniil Miromanov, 24, finished fourth
Spence is a helluva pick, Vollman is smart. however, he’s undersized and not regarded as a complete defenceman (more a puck mover).
From a few years back, but I’ll post for context at the time (Nov. 2019):
We also recall that in September Broberg’s coach Tommy Samuelsson, 59, who has been a top-level player and coach for over 40 years in Sweden, said that Broberg is the greatest d-man talent he has trained or played with. “It is him and Fredrik Olausson,” said Samuelsson to Han Abrahamsson of Aftonbladet. “Should you look at the category of players I have coached or played with of that age and the qualities he has… In my career I have only had one such example in my vicinity…. Olausson was also such a man when he was 17-18.” And Broberg is the best thing you’ve seen since then, Abrahamsson asked him? “Yes, that I’ve got to be close to and work with. Both of these two… just the humility that exists and the understanding that there is a journey behind to reach the top. It’s cool to see.”
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/philip-broberg-acing-it-in-sweden-inspiring-dreams-of-future-edmonton-oilers-defence-pairings
Fun fact:
In 2001 Ken Holland signed 34 year Frederik Olausson out of Switzerland (where he’d played the previous season after 14 in the NHL) for $750k.
Olausson would play top 4 D for the Wings en route to the Cup in 2002. Olausson’s only cup and Holland’s 2nd as GM.
I think Holland drafted him because of potential. The forwards are probably more certain to be solid point producers and to hit their projections
But a 6’3 extremely mobile defender who will play two ways, if he progresses as he could, is a far more impactful player. More TOI, and in a harder position. Holland said as much at the draft
Here’s hoping
David Pagnotta
@TheFourthPeriod
#Isles fans, multiple transactions are looking close. In addition to all the Nazem Kadri chatter, which I believe is valid, some internal house cleaning is also being taken care of. When will all the dominoes fall? That’s up to you-know-who.
EvolvingWild
@EvolvingWild
Nazem Kadri is still unsigned. Our model on @EvolvingHockey
is more certain of a long-term deal with a new team, but a 3-year deal at $7.1M is the second most likely contract per the model. With rumors floating around, it seems a 1-3 year deal in the $7M range would make sense.
Todd Marchant joins Sharks as Director of Player Development, Senior Advisor.
The late 90s Oil making a splash in California!
Incoming: Ethan Moreau, VP of skating in a straight line!
OBC it happens everywhere if your the boss your going to surround yourself with people you know and trust. Never did get the continuous whining about the Oilers OBC. Since expansion we have the most cups, until someone wins more than 5 Cups we are the greatest franchise.
Pittsburgh has 5 as well, and all since the Oilers last won. And since 1990, they have only missed the playoffs 4 times. Mario was the OBC for them, winning the first two as Captain and star, and owner for the next 3.
That right I thought the Pens only had 4. What about when the Rangers won in 93-94 with Messier,Anderson, Tikkanen, Graves, MacTavish, Lowe and Buekeboom that has to count for something.
Since 2010 (the Hall draft), here are the goalies taken in the 1st and 2nd round) … along with a snapshot of other goalies taken in later rounds (in bold – goalies still playing for the team that drafted them).
2010 – Jack Campbell (11), Mark Visentin (27), Calvin Pickard (49), Kent Simpson (58) … Philipp Grubauer (112), Peter Mrazek (141), Frederik Anderson (187)
2011 – Magnus Hellberg (38), John Gibson (39), Christopher Gibson (49) … Jordan Binnington (88)
2012 – Andrei Vasilevskiy (19), Malcolm Subban (24), Oscar Dansk (31), Anthony Stolarz (45) … Matt Murray (83), Frederik Anderson (redrafted at 87), Linus Ullmark (163)
2013 – Zachary Fucale (36), Tristan Jarry (44), Philippe Desrosiers (54), Eric Comrie (59) … Juuse Saros (99)
2014 – Mason McDonald (34), Thatcher Demko (36), Alex Nedeljkovic (37), Vitek Vanacek (39), Brandon Halverson (59) … Igor Shesterkin (118)
2015 – Ilya Samsonov (22), Mackenzie Blackwood (42) … Adin Hill (76), Karel Vejmelka (145)
2016 – Carter Hart (48), Tyler Parsons (54), Filip Gustavsson (55), Evan Fitzpatrick (59) … no other goalie from this draft has started more than 10 games in the NHL
2017 – Jake Oettinger (26), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (54) … Stuart Skinner (78), Jeremy Swayman (111), Cayden Primeau (199)
2018 – none of the goalies drafted have played more than 6 games in the NHL
Of the first round goalies drafted during an 8 year span … the only home run pick was Vasilevskiy Note that I’m not ready to anoint Oettinger, the way some others are … he played well for one playoff series, which they still lost to the Flames.
The other 3 goalies drafted in the first round during this span, are no longer with the team that drafted them.
In the second round … 7 goalies are still with the team that drafted them, but only Jarry, Demko and Hart are clearcut starters. Jarry and Demko took about 8 years to reach that pinnacle though. The other 14 goalies are no longer with the team that drafted them, and none of them are clearcut starters.
I recall being dismayed when the Oilers passed on the chance to draft Wallstedt, but I can understand the rationale … goalies are voodoo – I bet no-one in the independent scouting community had Saros on their radar, until he popped. There’s a much better chance that Wallsteadt (and Cossa) busts, rather than becoming a bonafide starting NHL goalie.
I’d rather take my chances that Bourgault becomes a top 6 winger, and keep drafting goalies no earlier than the third round.
Thank you for this! (While i was out cutting the grass)
I’m going to ruminate on the information provided for awhile
No goalies in first round of 2009, though our golden boy mikko Koskenen was 31st overall.
2 busts in the first round of 2008, though Markstrom was 31st overall
No goalies in first round of 2007. 2 busts in second round.
Bernier and 2 busts in first round of 2006.
you are right on.
that’s almost 20 years of first rounds (at least). Best to be sure of your first rounder and shoot your shots with depth picks.
Is the success rate of goalies drafted in the first and second rounds much, if any worse than that of skaters?
Skaters also bust with high frequency in the late first and second rounds.
When a skater bust he can still contribure as a NHLer in one of the lower lines(power forward -> physical forward -> energy guy; 2 way forward -> checking forward; etc).
There are 12 forward spots in a team and the new forward needs to out perform the lower 8% population of roster to play.
There are only two goalie spots, and the new guy need to beat 50% of the incumbent population to even get to ride the bench.
Whem you draft a goalie you are betting on this 18 year old goalie will turn out better than (~)50% of incumbent goalies in 4~5 years. It is less sure as a bet than betting on a F to be better than 8% if the other F in the same timefrsme so the new guy does not hit waiver.
I think from looking back at the recent drafting history of goalies to the NHL cements the notion that the intersection between value and need for drafting a goalie is in the 3rd and 4th rounds.
You need to keep drafting goalies, otherwise you’ll have no hope of getting one of the really good ones. But they are poor value in the 1st and 2nd round … forwards and defensemen are more likely to have a career spanning more than 200 games. Goalies in rounds 5-7 rarely become starters, so you’re not likely to get one there.
The 3rd or 4th round is a place in the draft when skaters just as much of a lottery ticket … that’s a good time to go for a goalie.
The “consensus number 1 goalie” in any draft year rarely ends up being the best goalie from that draft year, so the old adage of don’t draft a goalie in the first round should always be heeded.
I had looked at this a couple of years back when Godot was saying don’t draft Askarov in the 1st round.
The idea that you shouldn’t draft goalies early is mostly a myth.
Goalies drafted in the 1st/2nd rounds are not actually more likely to bust than forwards/D (you’re right that they also bust with a high frequency).
The catch is that teams are risk averse in drafting goalies too early. Goalies ARE a bit more volatile and unpredictable, but teams shy away from picking them (proportionally less goalies drafted than other positions). So it mostly evens out in practice.
I remember that well, and appreciate the context of the discussion.
Askarov was a major flop in his D+1. No idea how he’s trending today.
My take on this debate is, unless you are certain you’re drafting the next Price or Vasy, keep your powder dry until the third to fifth round for a goalie. Reason being, if he’s not blue chip, the least your goalie prospect has to be is competent enough to push the development of your skaters until you can develop, sign, or trade for your NHL goalie(s).
I remember jp doing the work on this as well.
There is a narrative? maybe a myth? that goal is the most important position in hockey but that mostly gets mentioned when your own goalie is letting in basketballs from centre or the other guy’s goalie has a sheet of 3/4″ plywood set up across the goal line.
There is no doubt that in both of those situations the goalie loses or wins the game for you but if you look at end of the year results for Sv% for goalies who played more than half their team’s games there are an awful lot of guys clumped together between .920 and .910 who all have a lot of caveats surrounding those numbers concerning the other guys who were on the ice with him.
Consistency is what you want and need in a capped league where the top end goalie costs you close to $10M and the good goalie costs you less than half that.
A goalie who will almost always make the same save game in and game out. Once the other guys know what kind of shots those are they play to limit them to the best of their ability.
Spend the draft picks (and money) on dmen and forwards and find a nice boring goalie who doesn’t give the HC ulcers with inconsistent play. And pick forwards and dmen in the 1st and 2nd round.
So why did Holland and scouts pass on these talented forwards that math was recommending? Its really easy and complicated at the same time.
Organizations spend millions on scouting. The math is free. Scouts are paid to dig and find out character and attitude. Coachability, commitment, fitness. They try to project abilities, growth, support, NHL ceiling. They are not just going to come to the table with a math spreadsheet. They are coming with opinions.
With anyone who is passed there was likely something the scouts seen, or identified, true or not true, that swayed decision. There were attitude whispers on Kaliyev, cockiness to Zegras. Benson minor hockey and character swayed decision. Brobergs upside influenced by his size and speed.
Similar LT just had another good write up on comparables. Each player scored say 40 5×5 points so all should be about equal comparables. But they are not at all. Only in math points were they comparable. In choosing one for your team you automatically choose the one you like best and it inevitable comes down to style, character, grit…….depending on what you value.
Counter argument of course is what LT always brings. Someone in the room, at some point must make sure the opinion arguments do not deviate substantially from the math.
I also just wanted to touch on Evander Kane. Remember the talk that “some team” will give him 7m? It was out there.
This was brilliantly played by Holland. He held his number and he allowed Kane to test the market to confirm his offer was good. This eliminated Kane later talking or feeling like he was shortchanged in some manner. The facts were that other teams felt they could discount the math due to McDavid, and they could not forgive or accept the attitude risk. Their “opinion” had not changed to spend money on him over similar comparables. His value to them was not near 7M regardless of point production.
Offense is needed and great. But if any fan base knows it’s us, that it’s far from enough to win playoff games
It seems two way play is being highly valued by the Holland Oilers. They seem to like energetic players with skill, speed, and don’t mind physical play
I think the trade market and its lack of fluidity factors in as well. BPA is smart, but if you can’t trade a hot Zegras for a stud young D or goalie that you need, you get stuck paying Zegras or possibly not getting full value. The Oilers have their high skill players, and to keep them both means being very careful with the cap (which remains a concern)
I get the direction they’re going. Hopefully a goalie hits good
I think they had a strong suspicion that Klefbom was going to have to be replaced by the time his contract ended due to health reasons… hence, the pick of Broberg over a forward. They desperately needed wingers then too, and they also passed by a very well-regarded goalie prospect as well.
Knowing that a defensemen can take 3-4 years before they can handle the rigours of being a top 4 defensemen in the NHL, they stuck to their guns and drafted for future need. Recall at the time, the Oilgosphere kept pumping the tires on the “leftorium” … but in reality, that cupboard was stocked without much in the way of top end talent. No one overvalues their prospects more than the hometown fans, and we were certainly guilty of that.
I’m guessing when Holland came in, he asked “who’s the best LD prospect that we have in the system right now?”
“Caleb Jones”
“You mean Seth Jones younger, smaller and less talented brother”
“Yep”
“Tyler … you still got that list of LD prospects you were projecting as 1st rounders? Good. Draft the highest guy left on that list when our turn comes.”
If you recall, there were rumblings of how unhappy the scouts were with Holland on this draft. That is why I think Holland had his man picked (Broberg) before arriving in Edmonton.
As soon as Holland was off the plane, Brobergs name was out there.
If Holland had intell on Klefbom’s potential injury retirement it would make all the difference.
I was thinking about this the other day, and had some time, so I went through the regular season last year and looked at all situation sv% for team wins vs all situation sv5 for team losses. I thought looking at how teams winning would provide insight on if they are relying on strong goaltending or not. maybe this crew would find it interesting. I can’t post the graph here, so here is a link to my tweet, hope that’s allowed.
https://twitter.com/YegSheldon/status/1554159895275941888
Looks like an interesting project you tackled. Can you help me understand conclusions you reached?
there are couple of interesting things this data shows to me (not an expert in stats).
if a team has a higher than average sv% for wins, than league average they may be wining on the backs of strong goaltending (like the islanders are), however teams that have a lower sv% for wins than league average must be relying on stronger offence to compensate for the goaltending.
I also thought it was interesting that the sv% for when teams win (stddev of 0.708) are much closer to one another than when teams lose (stddev of 1.105). might show us that there is more noise in sv% for losing games.
How do you deal with causation?
a better defensive team leads to lower shot quality, and higher sv%
check all of Trotz’s goalie’s save percentages vs league average. I bet they look decent.
that aside, it’s just really hard to tell whether a goalie makes defensemen good or vice versa.
I am more often in the camp of good defensemen make good sv %. Except for the exceptions. Hellebuyck, prime price, prime quick, vassy etc.
even they had strong defensemen for good chunks of their best years.
gibson sure had better numbers when he was playing in front of the deepest D in the league.
That is an actual question. Maybe you have a solve.
yeah it would be the same as raw sv%, so definitely doesn’t account for shot quality. but sv% still has value imo, and its still probably the most widely used goalie stat, this just splits that into win sv% and loss sv%
I thought that was where you were going thanks. There are so many variables, hard for my brain to grasp.
Randle (an Ethan Bear Fan), in an attempt to calm the waters when Ethan Bear was traded, said of the ongoing dispute over who was more valuable, Ethan Bear or Warren Foegele, that we should let time and the market place decide that and that we might be in a better position to assess that outcome when Ethan Bear signed his next contract.
Well Hooray for Ethan Bear. He reupped with Carolina this week. Congrats Ethan!
As far as assessing things now, on the face of it, Warren signed a multi year deal at $2.75m, Ethan signed a one year deal at $2.2m
The marketplace has spoken.
I could allow that the Foegele contract was an overpay. But it is VERY clear that dollar value of both players is still very similar. That neither player is significantly more valuable than the other according to the market place and those who dwell there.
Lol this is bizarre logic. So we should never criticize any contracts because they are all determined by the market and the market is never wrong.
The Foegele contract is not great. The contract was also not set by the market, as Foegele was an RFA.
The market speaks differently from different locations and different times and different levels of urgency though.
What is needed ‘right now’ in one location is in surplus at another. Location, location, location isn’t just a real estate catch phrase and how much free money is floating around is not equal from year to year.
The market place speaks but it does so with nuance and a wicked sense of humour.
We have to remember the impact of having a losing run on top 4 defensemen. Sekera, Klefbom and Larson were going to hold down the D for years, with Nurse coming on strong and a lot of potential in the system. (Bear, Laggeson, Jones, Samorukov, Marino)
What I did not like about the Broberg pick had nothing to do with Broberg. It was with Holland. Some is speculation but it seemed that he made the pick before ever arriving in Edmonton, based on Detroit’s intel and Detroit’s staff. Slightly bothered me as from my seat I viewed the roster and it was more than obvious a talented forward was needed.
A re-draft of all goalies selected in the first two rounds for the last 5-10 years would be interesting.
“I know athletes with size are all the rage, but would like to believe there’s room for someone 5.11, 184 as an NHL starter.”
Your list is not only unique in it’s affintiy for math, it’s unique in it’s relative dis-regard for size.
The one thing I notice most about your list is a general relative disregard for size. (not saying that’s a bad thing). It’s part of what differentiates your list from the others.
Your list for me is most interesting when teams are picking late first round, and throughout the second round, when teams are looking to mine the gold nugget that fell through the sluice box because it was smaller than the other nuggets.
It’s the one area where the Oilers Drafting has improved the most over the past 5 years imo. Finding gold after the 20th pick of round one.
i like the gold nugget analogy.
Goalies are more eye test, fit, personality and psychology than other positions. It takes more work and not work that a lot of people are able or willing to do.
I think this is why many teams…Florida, Vancouver as examples…have actually launched goaltender development departments.
I know, in Vancouver, that Ian Clark is very much involved in scouting potential goaltender draft picks as well as developing them when picked.
Most likely. It makes sense.
I’d love to hear Sather give a long-form commentary on why he chose Fuhr over Moog as an example. It would be fascinating.
Another case study would be to look at the time Chicago had Hasek, Belfour, and Jimmy Waite (who they’d taken in the first round at #8).
When are you referring to him choosing Fuhr over Moog? Throughout Moog and Fuhr’s time together on the team, Sather went back and forth between them. He had Fuhr as the main started in his rookie year, but switched back to favoring Moog in 82/83 and Moog started most of the playoff games that year. In 83/84 after playing the same number of games roughly in the regular season, Sather at this time chose Fuhr as the starter for the playoffs. For the remaining 3 years Moog was with the team, they continued to roughly split regular season games, but Fuhr remained the primary playoff starter.
Their regular season games played, win loss records and save % were almost identical from 81-87 after which Moog left. Fuhr played twice as many playoff games though and was the one chosen for Team Canada. Sather might have felt Fuhr was a better big game goalie. Also Fuhr seemed to be the better puck mover, recording almost 3 times the assists in the regular season and 9 assists to 1 in the playoffs. With an offensive team, a good puck moving goalie is an asset.
Ultimately it was Moog who chose to leave the Oilers, demanding a trade then sitting out in 87-88 and getting sent to Boston at the trade deadline in spring 88.
I’d like to know what in their games said to Sather that Fuhr was the guy in the playoffs. Don’t think Moog would’ve left if he had been the guy when the real games were on the line.
It was about money, every summer. Slats would have kept both but the salaries were skyrocketing and the owner couldn’t get his meat packing act together.
“I think it’s a reasonable bet, while also understanding the Cam Talbot bet was a better one seven years ago. ”
I respectfully disagree.
Talbot was an undrafted career backup when the Oilers traded for him at age 28.
I was happy to get Talbot at the time. I’m even happier to have Jack Campbell.
Time will tell. It’s my contention that Jack Campbell is the right man for the job and will surprise you relative to the performance of Cam Talbot as an Oiler.
You bought the Soup, but you seem reluctant to eat the Soup
The Cam Talbot bet was decent (he’s a good 1B on a defensively sound team). He turned out about as well as could be expected and was a product of Allaire and the NYR system. remember who the goalies involved were?
As LMHF#1 said…”goalies are more eye test, fit, personality and psychology than other positions”. The qualitative analysis needed to identify goalies with the right mental makeup is not voodoo – you can do it well or poorly – it’s just hard to do on 17 year olds. The mental side of playing goal is absolutely key and developing the necessary high level of focus and concentration takes years. Sure elite physicality can take you to a high level short-term – but you have to have an equally elite mental game to stay there. It’s not voodoo as some teams (eg NYR, Montreal, Nashville) constantly pump out quality netminders) while others (eg EDM) have been constant failures. Holland (ex-goalie) seems to have have a pretty good feel for this and I’ve been encouraged by the guys he’s chased (Markstrom, Kuemper, Campbell).
Skinner will be fine – Talbot level 1B and maybe more.
Fuhr didn’t play in the WHL as a 16 year old. He came into the league as a 17 year old and earned 1st team All Star as a rookie. He was drafted after his 18 year old season. Interesting note:
Sather came to a game in Victoria to watch Fuhr, who then had one of his worst games of the season. Sather must have really trusted his scouts!
https://www.tsn.ca/travis-yost-grading-every-nhl-team-s-left-wing-depth-1.1831511
Yost is completely lost on this, no Kane? No mention of Draisaitl.
Oilers run out
Kane
Hyman
Nuge
Or
Drai
Kane
Hyman
Or
Kane
Nuge
Hyman
Or
Kane
Hyman
Mcleod
Or..
Well it doesn’t really matter, if Yost is under the belief the Oilers have a middle of the pack LW.. Teach your kids to be sports journalists, no credibility required.
Yeah I agree
He’s telling everyone in his Twitter comments Kane is going RW, good lord. The man needs lessons.
Guess he did not watch where Kane played last season…..
Or any other season of his career. How odd.
No big surprise – if Yost (or any of these so-called experts/insiders) had any actual scouting ability, he’d be working for a NHL team with better salary and job security.
He may have been one of those who voted Ovechkin as the 1RW AND 1LW in the all-star voting.
Lol, that would make sense.
Also, Kraken tied for first in LW depth. . . riggghhhtttttt.
I wonder if a slightly back loaded deal would help with Yammers, say 2 + 3.5 + 3.5?
How would that help? All it does is make his next contract qualifying offer untenable does it not?
I was thinking about this yesterday.
If I was his agent, this is exactly what I would be shooting for.
I think that would make you a very poor agent then.
A backloaded deal on an RFA expiry is standard business and, yes, his agent will almost undoubtably be negotiating for that structure.
With respect – that’s just how these contracts gets structured, generally.
I’m not sure about untenable – one would presume Yamamoto would be worth $3.5MM plus in 3 full seasons from now.
The majority of multi-year contracts with RFA expiry have higher salaries in the last year for this reason and I would suspect, if Kailer does sign for multiple years, that his would as well.
I didn’t think it was 5 years post 2019 draft yet. Way too early to tell on Kaliyev, Zegras or Broberg at this point.
Arrows up and down.
That’s fair but I’m not sure most are framing it as just an up/down arrow.
Broberg’s arrows are all looking pretty good, excited to watch him strip the puck off of Zegras and skate end to end in 6 strides.
It’s always a good idea to wait five years, but in the case of these three men I think we can agree they’ll play in the NHL. Now it’s a matter of where they play in the lineup and for how long.
It’s also important to be fair about these things. For instance, Mathew Barzal was a very good prospect (I had him No. 8, he went No. 16) and a stunning rookie, but his production over his career has been eroding. Here are his points-per-game yearly:
2017-18: 1.04
2018-19: 0.76
2019-20: 0.88
2020-21: 0.82
2021-22: 0.81
His cap hit is $7 million, and the current contract ends in 2023 summer. He is a productive player, no doubt. However, Puck IQ has centers Pageau and Nelson playing more against elites and even Cizikas sees about the same minutes versus elites (as a percentage of overall five-on-five icetime).
He was worth a high pick and the Bruins were FOOLS not to take him. The Oilers were criminally out to lunch on the Reinhart trade. If we apply the same sound judgement, this summer would be the year to trade Barzal.
Imo.
LT (generally) has it right with the 5 years thing. Looking after 3 years puts defensemen at a distinct disadvantage.
Wheeler’s 2018 re-draft (from a year ago) is linked in the 2019 article. It’s got Bouchard #12, but he’ll have shot up a year later after his 81 12-31-43 season (and outscoring 6 of the 11 players listed in front of him; 3 of them forwards and 3 of them defense).
We should also note Broberg’s up arrow. Arguably ahead of development timeline and trending higher offensively than initially projected.
We’ll see where that offence goes at the next level but his AHL numbers as a 20-year old d-man are impressive.
I’ve always thought his offense has been sold short.
The AHL numbers are exceptional, and familiar enough they’re difficult to argue.
His scoring in the SHL (and 2nd league in his draft year) has been excellent though too when you consider his age (he also scored well at many of the Jr tournaments when playing with his own age group).
Who cares about Kaliyev when we should have picked the guy that is ranked #2 OV in the redraft.
That is still one of my 2 recent draft shocks that had me yelling at the TV the other being Reinhart trade
I do, it’s why I mentioned it. Holland must have seen Zegras a ton, and didn’t see him as the best option. I expect part of it was the number of smaller skill players on the roster (Nuge, Yamamoto, Gagner). The Oilers passing on a smaller player happens every year (DeBrincat) but not taking Kaliyev (6.02, 210 and 51 goals in the OHL in his draft year) ran counter to their own modus operandi. That’s why it’s of interest.
LAK just killed that draft.
4 players on Wheeler’s extended list.
32 teams passed on DeBrincat.
A half a dozen of them passed on him twice.
He was known to the Oilers fan base as a likely success. So, other teams aren’t really the point. Edmonton is much better now, and I do think passing on Barzal and DeBrincat contributed to taking Yamamoto.
Broberg was ranked ahead of Kaliyev on most pre-draft rankings so not just Holland’s. On McKenzie’s average ranking (average is not concensus), Broberg was 15th while Kaliyev was 21st. and the Oilers managed to get Lavoie, who was ranked 19th on McKenzie’s list – so on average he was ranked ahead of Kaliyev. Even LA took Bjornfot, a defenseman, who was ranked 27th on McKenzie’s list ahead of Kaliyev. GM’s went to the stage 32 times before Kaliyev’s name was called, so LA in hindsight is lucky he was still available. And whatever credit they get for Kaliyev, they took Turcotte at number 5 and so far he sure hasn’t turned out for them.
I have no quarrel with the Broberg selection and no quarrel with his progress.
This is how I feel about the Wallstedt vs Bourgault selection, in addition to the Broberg vs Zegras picks. Ditto the Bouchard vs Dobson/Whalstrom draft.
Generally speaking, I’m more interested to see how the emphasis on team building wins out (or not) over BPA or the latest shiny toy metric that we see here on the sidelines.
I seriously wonder if long term signability had anything to do with their not picking Zegras. Only guessing, and not saying that it should, but perhaps something in the interview process highlighted preferred locations to play long term that didn’t include Canada?
I believe the Red Wings had Seider than Broberg targeted with the 6th pick. Zegras was hanging there like a freak okanagon peach bursting with juices yet Holland takes raw Broberg. Holland knew he had 5 years and chose the project Broberg because that’s who the Red Wings take if Seider was off the board. It’s to bad Yzerman didn’t go with Broberg because Seider looks like a stud for the next 15 years.
I will be watching Ryan Fanti with interest this coming season.
There were many teams interested in signing him and a few of the reports indicated he may not be far from being NHL ready. Of course, far from a lock to ever be an NHL goalie but, from the reports, we may know alot in a year from now.
Go Kid!
What save percentage does the Kid need in Bakersfield to be considered a real option in the next few years if Skinner doesn’t pan out? The Flames looked like they fluked out with Dustin Wolf who went in the the 7th round in 2019. Wolf had a 924%sv last year in the regular season and was even better in the playoffs. Wolf is listed at 6 foot 156 pounds is this why he was drafted so low? The Goalies are getting taller and taller every year.
Last 7 Oiler Goalies
Brossoit 6’3” 205 pounds.
Stolarz. 6’6” 245 pounds.
Talbot 6’4” 196 pounds.
Koshinen 6’7” 205 pounds
Smith 6’5” 220 pounds
Skinner 6’4” 207 pounds
Campbell 6’3” 207 pounds.
Fanti is listed at 6’2” 190 pounds the Oilers sure like tall Goalies. Nobody might find this interesting by I sure did.
.920 or above qualifies as “attention getting”, but it also depends on the team in front of him….
May I ask when you think that save percentage is a good determiner of tending and when it isn’t?
I mean, in the post above, you speak to save percentage as the holy grail but, of course, you keep calling Smith “Leaky Smith” and speak to Campbell as a massive upgrade even though Smith had a better save percentage this past season, the prior season and in the playoffs.
Something isn’t adding up….
You can wish upon a star before you go to bed tonight but Kelfbom and Smith are done. Campbell is a better Goalie than Smith is right now. Jack played in the hardest market in the NHL and was impressive even playing with bad ribs which is excruciating. By the way what happened to leaky Mikko. I believe you had him easily pegged with him signing on with another NHL team as a back-up. The NHL is a very unforgiving league especially for Goalies.
‘
What does this random statement have to do with anything in this thread? What a wild thing to type/post out of nowhere.
I don’t disagree with this but, at the same time, in this thread you cite save percentage as a holy grail of assessment but then opine that Campbell is better despite inferior save percentage in each of the past two seasons and playoffs.
Something isn’t adding up, that’s all.
As far as Mikko, I have little doubt that he would receive contract offers from NHL teams – he decided to go back to Europe WELL in advance of that time – he wanted to go back to Europe, clearly. Not that this has anything to do with the posts and topic but we know you love to change that when you do not have applicable arguments to make.
Why do you continuously bring up Smith’s save percentage when folks are excited about the window to win the Cup with Campbell? Campbell played almost twice as many games as Smith last year. I don’t know why you don’t like Campbell to each is his own. Mikko went where you play a game or two every other week, no pressure easy living nice and save place to race kids. If Mikko had the desire to win a Cup which means everything to a lot of players he would of lobbied for a job with another team.
I bring up Smith’s save percentage in conversation and discussion and because its relevant.
I bring it up in this thread because you discount it to criticize Smith as “Leaky Smith” and washed up but you cite is a the key evaluation piece in this thread. Seems to be a disconnect so I asked.
My goodness do you make wild leaps and conclusion jumps – it makes it impossible to have a conversation with you. I am very excited for Campbell, have stated as much and cited why I think he should help the Oilers tending this season even though Smith has had the better save percentage recently.
It would be great if you could stop citing my opinions falsely, every single day – please.
Mikko had his reasons for going back to Europe but him choosing to do so back in the spring does not mean he wouldn’t have received NHL offers – it would be shocking if he didn’t.
Campbell has a better winning percentage a better save percentage and is 10 years younger. I was a fan of Smith but like Roloson and Tommy Salo it’s time to move on. Mikko must be still be sending quarterly thank-you cards to Peter. C.
I’m not sure what is happening but it seems you are arguing with yourself – making a bunch of points and statements that have nothing to do with anything I’ve said and most of which I wouldn’t dispute even if they were relevant to a conversation – wild stuff.
Your the one that keeps bringing up Smith’s save percentage everytime Campbell’s name is brought up. How do you know if any teams offered Mikko a NHL job? I called Mikko long ago that he would be playing in the Swiss Cheese League the moment his contract was done.
I bring up his save percentage when you bring up how leaky he was (and then use save percentage as the holy grail). Smith had issues with consistency, even within games, a heath – but he provided good goaltending for this team over the course of his tenure and high value for cap hit.
I think Campbell has a higher end at this point and should be an upgrade in goal for the Oilers, mainly by providing more “even tending” that can provide “piece of mind” – I’m very happy to have him in net for this coming season.
I’m pretty sure no NHL team offered Mikko a contract because he decided to go back to Europe well in advance if their ability to do so.
I have the opinion that he would have been offered contracts by NHL teams, likely multiple – this is based off his performance, ability, numbers, etc. – Of course, not at $4MM per year but, if he wanted to stay in the NHL, I’m confident there would have been contracts for him and this was a personal choice decision.
Mike Smith. W-307 L-267 T-80
2.71-AV 912-SV
Jack Campbell. W-74 L-42 T-15
2.56-AV 915-SV
Why can’t someone be satisfied with Smith’s 3 seasons with the Oilers and also be glad they have signed Campbell going forward. Holland did not sign Koskinen, plus he did pursue other options the past 2 seasons, but for roughly $2 million a season or less Smith’s performance and cap hit allowed Holland to sign other players, while still having a team get to the conference finals within 3 seasons of taking over a non playoff team. You can’t seem to mention Campbell without dissing on Smith.
Oh and since you are pointing out career save %: Mike Smith: .924 – Jack Campbell .915.
These save percentages are for the playoffs.
I like Smith but if you didn’t flinch on every shot this playoff while he was flipping and flopping all over the place. By the time we played the Av’s Smith was physically done. We had a real good shot at winning that series with a Billy Ranford performance instead we got Murray Bannerman Goaltending
Your right, it would have taken a Conn Smythe level of play from a goalie for the Oilers to win that series, given than on average, they were outshot 43 to 31 in the 4 games. Smith was not his best for all 4 of those games. But he wasn’t the only reason they lost the series. Maybe he wouldn’t have been so tired if the Oilers hadn’t allowed an average of almost 39 shots per game against throughout the playoffs. Back when Ranford won the Smythe, he faced less than 31 shots per game.
If you don’t think the strategy wasn’t to shoot from anywhere on Smith which inflated his shot total instead of dumping the puck in the corners where Smith could handle the puck then we obviously view the game differently. Ask Todd if you ever get the chance if volume shooting was the strategy.
Ask Sutter if volume shooting wasn’t the game plan against Smith if you ever bump into him at the Cactus Corner Truck Stop.
I would say most teams have a good chance to win their playoffs series if their goalie is putting on a Conn Smyth type performance – that’s quite the high bar to set, no?
I’ve seen a lot of great Goalies come through Edmonton. Either I’m setting the bar too high in wanting a better Goalie than Smith at this stage of his Career. Especially now that we have a real window to win. Maybe it’s you whose setting the bar so low. Go back and watch Playoff performances by Moog ,Fuhr,Ranford, Joseph as you were to young to see it first hand. See how smart Sather was to always strive for the best in Net.
Smith lost 10 Playoff games in a row. Do you know how hard that is to do. Its probably never been or will never be done in the history of the game. I think 5 of those losses were in OT. I’m glad we knocked of Calgary and I did win a substantial amount off my Cowpoke buddies but Smith wasn’t winning us a Cup. This is our window it’s a win now mode we’re going to find out what Campbell made of in due time.
Hall of Famer Tony Esposito lost 16 playoff games in a row between 1975 and 1979. Harry Lumley, also in the HoF, lost 10 in a row for the Leafs. Smith is in good company.
Thanks for that I had to triple check on Tony I still can’t believe he lost not only 10 but 16 in a row. I can’t ever recall this being brought up in any context during Espo’s Career by announcers or fans.
I think your evaluation of Konovalov under-sells the option of him making legitimate rubles in Siberia. Sometimes, the player also has an opinion on where he wants to play.
When you draft Russians out of Russia, there’s always the chance they go this route. Buyer beware.
Agree that would have been a factor in the flushing.
Also, he’s 24. He came to NA and gave the AHL a try for a season. It didn’t go well at all, so fair enough he/they agreed to part ways.
I understand why Broberg is sliding – there are various others from that draft that have arrived and are arriving.
Of course, at the time of the pick, it was known and accepted that other, including those drafted after him, would “arrive first”.
For me, Broberg is developing right on time and as expected – perhaps even a bit earlier and with a bit more offence than projected (if we look at Klefbom and his development as a comparable).
There is no doubt that the likes of Zegras and Boldy and Caufield are going to light up highliht reels many times per year but that doesn’t mean that Broberg won’t be just as valuable to the Oilers’ success as the others – maybe even more.
We aren’t there yet but the kid is on track.
Just stay healthy Phillip!
I really hope I’m wrong, but I fear that Broberg, despite his tantalizing skill set, will be too injury prone to have a successful NHL career (kind of like Klefbom). I suspect there are some players that just are this way (genetics?). Yams might be “this way” too?
Yeah that really doesn’t make much sense IMO.
Klefbom had major shoulder surgery in his draft +2 season, missed most of an NHL season a couple of years later. Numerous other maladies over the years, and obviously the career ending shoulder issues.
Broberg has had some minor injuries but nothing major at all (in 20-21 for instance he had the injuryies at the World Juniors, but he barely missed any games from them (4 games at the Jrs, 44 SHL regular season and 12 SHL playoff games). He missed a little time this year as well, but played 54 games (+5 in the playoffs). Nothing comparable to Klefbom.
Yamamoto has also had a couple of injuries along the way, but since he joined the Oilers he’s been healthy for 208 of 218 possible games. He’s ‘too small’ to stay healthy, except he generally does.
Yams has been quite durable during his NHL career…… I think.
Injury and Oilers prospects has become a thing: Broberg, Samourkov, Holloway – all with major time missed due to multiple (or ongoing) injuries since drafted. Bourgault is looking like he’s joining them as well.
In a perfect world, Broberg would develop into a Bouwmeester-esque defenseman. If that did happen, not drafting Zegras is forgivable. We wait.
Yes, and he is the only really legitimate D prospect we have that is close to sure thing as a bonafide NHLer. Sammy has slipped somewhat. So, the drafting of Broberg rather than a forward was the right thing to do at that time.
An elite #1C always has much more value than a second pairing D.
Who’s an elite #1C though?
I assume you mean Zegras? But calling him an “elite #1C” involves a lot of projecting.
A 21 year old with 61 points in 75 NHL games is pretty easy to project.
Of course things can go sideways but that’s true of all players.
From Wheeler:
But Zegras is also (already) one of the faces of this sport, with a creative, playmaking game that will quite likely make him one of this generation’s best facilitators (like Nicklas Backstrom, Henrik Sedin and Joe Thornton before him, but with more flair), and he’s not going anywhere.
A face of the sport, lots of flair, sure.
And he might get there, but he was 76th in scoring last year. Same points/game as Nuge, and I know you’re not calling Nuge elite.
Edit: and Nuge had a better points/game at 18 than Zegras at 21. Pretty easy to project that one too.
Zegras spent zero time with elite centres and, in fact, played on a poor team.
Now you’re describing Nuge at 18.
True, but we don’t know where Broberg will end up. Could be anywhere from 1st to 3rd pairing.
Yeah I don’t think we should trade either one of our TWO elite #1 centers for a 2nd pairing D either. That is what you were getting at, right?
Stop cursing players, you have no idea what an NHL defensemen is. Your evaluation abilities resemble Disney’s take on StarWars.
Why you gotta badmouth Disney here? Mickey goes home devastated!
Mickey is confused.
Not sure if you noticed but the Oil have a couple of elite #1Cs. They are a dime a dozen.
For me, the only reason Sammy has slipped is because of injury.
Presuming general health from here on out, we will start to reap the benefits of his development….. i think/hope.
At the time of the trade you had a young Klefbom, young Larson, young Nurse, Veteran Sekera. Bear, Samorukov, Jones, Lageson, Marino as prospects.
Up front you don’t have a single first line winger. None. No Hall, No Eberle, Lucic wont work, Maroon scored but they moved on. All you have is hope Puljujarvi arrives asap.
With that as your roster picking a d man was a good idea?
At the time of the draft (a) Klefbom’s injuries were already a thing and I there has been speculation that Holland knew where Klefbom was headed and (b) Sekera’s career was already essentially done due to the injuries (at least done as a top 4 guy).
Top 4 LD was projecting to be a massive need going forward, right.
P.S. I wonder if a team would be smart to take in to account the two top centers in the world, both not even at their primes yet and signed for max term contracts, when deciding if a likely very good-great (i.e. not elite) center vs. a d-man with top pairing (but potentially capping out at 2nd pairing) d-man is more valuable.
I wonder.
And yet here we are with Kane and Hyman plus Yakamoto, Bourgeault and Puljujarvi but Larsson, Sekera, Jones, Lagesson & Marino are gone just as Broberg is about to arrive.
Weird how that has worked out.
Good question, I have no idea how young goalies in European leagues get rated.
I mean Wallstedt was a clear high end pick and Wheeler has him as the top drafted goalie prospect but he was a CLEAR back-up in the SHL last year. I know the SHL favors veterans but the kid got in to 1 of 17 playoff games. I have no doubt he is as good as touted but how do those in the know know that?
Same with the goalie the Oilers drafted – Awful numbers in a junior league – I know his team was awful, and that clearly matters, but what about this guy was identified?
Great thread regarding team sv% [DT vs JW] & a word about next year’s tandem.
https://twitter.com/costanza_sports/status/1553954284953145344?t=Khgb8kpXYyr6CBjwV252bg&s=19
I assume it’s Costanza Sports because the person didn’t put the effort in?
The .944SV% under Woodcroft is totally wrong, and was apparently arrived at as the average of Smith, Koskinen and Skinner’s SV%’s under Woodcroft (ie – weighting Skinner’s 1 game with a 1.000 SV% equally to the other two goalies).
The actual numbers for team SV% are:
Overall .905
Tippett .897
Woodcroft .915
So Costanza’s overall point remains pretty fair.
SH% followed an identical trend as well though, and it’s likely that team ‘structure’ and other adjustments rather than ‘shooting’ and ‘stopping the puck’ were important in the better SH% and SV% under Woodcroft (though plain luck likely also had a say).
Overall 10.5% SH%
Tippett 9.5%
Woodcroft 11.0%