99 Luftballons

by Lowetide

I wrote this in the summer of 2007, the portion in bold was a 2020 update. It looks terrific based on how things turned out, but the fact is we don’t know what we don’t know. Prospect development isn’t exactly like throwing 99 balloons in the air and watching the lucky ones reach the sky, but there are similarities. The prospects Oilers fans are counting on won’t deliver 100 percent of the time. On the other hand, someone in the system getting fed in the comments section today will rise to an NHL career. I know you know better than everyone else, but I am here to tell you no you don’t and it’s folly to even try.

THE ATHLETIC!

2007 Predictions and updates (a selection)

We’ll get to some of this year’s Bakersfield Condors in a second, but first some more 2007 predictions good and bad. Remember, players don’t develop in a straight line and injuries have an impact.

  • Andrew Cogliano (20)- I think he’ll be MacT’s favorite by the end of camp among the new kids on the block, but it’s extremely likely he spends most of his first pro season in the AHL. Reasonable expectations: A solid year in the AHL posting good offensive numbers and earning rave reviews for how well he plays the game in all areas. [Cogliano didn’t spend one day in the minors, and is now at 1,140 NHL games and a ring for his career.]
  • Kyle Brodziak (23)- I think he has an excellent chance to be an end of the roster player out of camp for the Oilers. More and more, Kyle Brodziak looks like this decade’s Rem Murray. Reasonable expectations: Another quality run in the AHL and plenty of time in the show. [He arrived at 2007 training camp with an extra step and a great deal of determination. He won an NHL job for 2007-08 and was a regular contributor in the league through 2019, 917 NHL games.]
  • Tom Gilbert (24)– His scoring rate in the AHL (49gp, 4-26-30) and his NHL time (12gp, 1-5-6, minus 1) added to his age suggests it’s go time for Gilbert. Reasonable expectations: He looks NHL ready. [Gilbert played in the NHL for the entire 2007-08 season, scoring 13-20-33 in 82 games. One of Kevin Lowe’s best trades, he sent Tommy Salo and a sixth-round pick to Colorado for Gilbert, who would play 655 NHL games.]
  • Devan Dubnyk(21)– .921SP as a rookie pro was 3rd best in the ECHL. Asiaoil is our resident goalie expert and has convinced me that Dubnyk might be the real deal. Reasonable Expectations: At 21, he should be able to push past JDD this season. [Dubnyk did push up to the AHL, but could not pass JDD. In 33 games, he posted a 3.12GAA and a .904SP. Deslauriers would also beat DD to the NHL, but Dubnyk played in 542 games in the world’s best league.]
  • Zach Stortini (22 in Sept)– Big kid might make the Oilers out of camp this fall. He’s certainly the best enforcer option in the system if MacT decides that not having BG last season had any impact. Stortini played 29 games with the Oilers last season so is no longer considered a rookie. Reasonable expectations: He’s a guy who could split his season between Springfield and the Oilers. [Stortini played 3 AHL games in 2007-08, but the majority of his time was spent in the NHL, where he scored 3-9-12 in 66 games, 201 pims. He ended with 257 NHL games.]
  • Jean Francois Jacques (22)- Huge winger, strong as an ox, hits like a freight train and based on the AHL summaries I’ve read he’s too good for that league. However, he’s layed an egg bigger than Vegreville’s each time he’s played an NHL game. Reasonable expectations: No matter how many games he plays in the show this year, he needs to be better every shift. And it wouldn’t kill him to get a freaking point, either. [Continued to play well in the AHL (38, 11-14-25) with zero results in the NHL (9, 0-0-0). By the end of 2007-08, JFJ had played 53 NHL games with zero points. He got into 166 NHL games, scoring 9-8-17.]
  • Theo Peckham (19)– I have no idea how they identify the really good stay-at-home types early, but Peckham either has the best P.R. in the history of junior hockey or he’s really a good player. Reasonable expectations: First year pro, and more positive comments from scouts and coaches. [He saw one NHL game, played 59 AHL games in Springfield and showed both toughness and inexperience. He would play in 160 NHL games.]
  • Troy Bodie (22)- Huge winger got into 14 AHL games but spent most of the year in Stockton. Famous junior player whose style used to be called “north and south winger”, which is to say he patrols his wing and isn’t too fancy. Reasonable expectations: He should be able to grab a fulltime AHL job. [Bodie played 2007-08 in the AHL 9-6-15 in 62 games. He would find his way to the Anaheim Ducks in 2008-09, where he played a fringe role for three seasons. Bodie would play full seasons for Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs, and finished his NHL career with 159GP.]
  • Colin McDonald (23 in Sept)- Reasonable expectations: A strong work ethic and an idea about how to play the game, plus a full 650 plate appearances in the AHL. [McDonald was a shy scorer as an AHL rookie, posting just 12-11-23 in 73 games. He would have a journeyman NHL career 2011-17, finishing with 148 games.]
  • Rob Schremp (21)– He underwent surgery in May repair the medial collateral ligament of his left knee (an injury suffered in an April AHL game). Reasonable expectations: Suspect Nilsson gets the NHL job out of the gate with Schremp ripping it up in Triple A. [Schremp seemed a step slow in camp and was sent down. He lit up the AHL, scoring 23-53-76 in 78 games, but appeared in just two NHL games. He would be lost to waivers and played in 114 NHL games.]
  • Tim Sestito (23 in August)- 2-way winger with grit who hasn’t played much in the AHL since turning pro. He once desribed himself as a player thusly: “I think mainly I’m out there to get things going with a hit or a forecheck and specifically to keep the puck out of our net. I think my defensive part of the game is getting better and if I can chip in with some points, that’s always a plus.” Reasonable expectations: Role player in AHL. [In 2007-08 he scored 7-10-17 in 77 games with 175pims in an enforcer role. In 2009, Edmonton dealt him to NJD, where he would play 101 games over six seasons.]
  • Liam Reddox (21)- Scored only 8 goals in 70 ECHL games this season. Reddox should get a good shot in the AHL this season based on age and skill set. Reasonable expectations: He needs to be a lot better offensively, but he’s an interesting prospect who might be able to play the disturber role. [Reddox blossomed in Springfield, scoring 16-28-44 in 65 games and making his NHL debut. It would lead to three more years of NHL time, and he playing in 100 games with Edmonton over four years.]
  • Goalie Jeff Deslauriers (23)– 2002 draft is still regarded by the organization as a potential NHL prospect. .908SP last season in the AHL represents his pro high water mark, but 20 goalies had a better number in the American League last season (all playing 25 or more games). I can’t name a quality #1 NHL goalie who took a similar route to the show. Reasonable expectations: Keeping the top AHL job and making NHL debut. [JDD played well in starting role for the Springfield Falcons in 2007-08, .290GAA and .912SP. He would make his NHL debut in 2008-09 and played in 62 big-league games].

REVIEW

I got Cogliano’s career right but didn’t see him coming to the NHL right away. I saw Brodziak as seeing plenty of time in the show, but 80 games is more than plenty. Tom Gilbert is correct, but he was an older prospect so I’m not sure much credit should be given there. Dubnyk is correct, Stortini spent more time in the NHL, the rest are fine except there’s no way on earth I saw Tim Sestito making the NHL.

THIS YEAR’S CONDORS

I think most of us see Philip Broberg as the prospect with the strongest chance to make the team, and Stuart Skinner as a 90 percent bet for the backup job in net. Dylan Holloway is in a crowded house on left wing and more AHL time is fine. Xavier Bourgault could make the NHL by Christmas if everything breaks right, but could be delayed until next season. This group represents the top end, the players with enough quality to be projected into the NHL as regulars. It may not happen, but they’re pretty sure.

My top-10 list in the fall of 2007 was Sam Gagner (he was newly drafted but would make the Oilers), Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert, Taylor Chorney, Rob Schremp, Kyle Brodziak, Riley Nash, Slava Trukhno, Devan Dubnyk and Jeff Petry. Chorney, Schremp and Trukhno failed to become legit NHL players, meaning my list had a 70 percent success rate, using 200 NHL games as the line in the sand.

Back to this year’s AHL kids. After the top group of Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault, Skinner? Who knows. Carter Savoie could set Bakersfield ablaze with his goal scoring but he hasn’t done it yet. Reid Schaefer could scorer 45 in the WHL and emerge as a future PF option. Dmitri Samorukov and Markus Niemelainen could blossom at the same time and force their way into NHL action.

And WHO is the Sestito? He wasn’t on my top 20 in 2007, (here’s my latest top-20 list from summer) and if I pick someone outside the top-20 it’s pretty much a group of unsigned AHL guys. I could pick James Hamblin or Vincent Desharnais, but both make my list. Dino Kambeitz, a personal favourite and a reasonable comp for Sestito, doesn’t score enough to be considered an NHL prospect. I’ll go with Darien Kielb. He’s very good and far, far under the radar.

So the lesson here is this. Someone is going to pull a Brodziak (arrive at camp ripped and ready like never before) and someone is going to have an injury (ala Schremp) and miss the train to an NHL career. I don’t know who will be impacted, only that it happens every year. Murray Wilson had size, speed and skill, plus he was a first rounder, but Yvon Lambert (a slow boat) won the day. We’ll just have to wait and see.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

A busy show today, 10-2 on TSN1260. Glen Suitor will join us at 10:40 to preview Week 10, Kaitlyn McGrath from The Athletic will discuss the Blue Jays at 11. Mike Petraglia from Jungle Roar will talk Bengals and we go around the world with Bruce Arthur at 1. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

You may also like

4.1 20 votes
Article Rating
154 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
SwedishPoster

News today that former Leaf, trailblazer for swedish players in the NHL and altogether legend Börje Salming has been diagnosed with ALS. Sounds like he already has breathing issues so that’s pretty sucky.
Was a hero for me as a kid, was too young to remember him in his prime but I read his autobiography as a young teenager and I really took it to heart. The true definition of someone willing to go the extra mile to succeed. Like me he was born in a small northern town in Sweden and his journey really resonated with me. Hard work and determination defined him. Great great person according to everyone who’s met him.

He will battle this no doubt but it’s one hell of a beast to battle.

meanashell11

SP, I am so sorry to hear this. ALS is nasty.

Randle McMurphy

Borje Salming was a trail-blazer and one tough son of b*tch.

Sounds to me like being born in a small northern town in Sweden is a lot like being a farmboy form Saskatchewan (high praise) Howe, Trottier, Federko, Getzlaff, Propp, Gillies, Wendel Clark, Dave Manson, etc, etc.

Best wishes to Borje. He was a joy to watch.

OriginalPouzar

Does anyone know why Munzenburger is not in the lineup for Germany?

OriginalPouzar

Gotta be an injury:

Steven Ellis
@StevenEllisTHN
 · 2h
Lines for USA vs. Germany.

GER has all three goalies listed right now. Germany will be without Oilers prospect Luca Munzenberger. #WorldJuniors

dunterpunter

OP, lots of people def enjoy your presence, including myself, but please, enjoy summer. Daily this blog is 75% your posts, 25% everyone else. 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Well, this is factually correct and I am happy to advise that I am having a very nice summer – quite enjoyable, thank you.

OriginalPouzar

LOL, that should read, factually incorrect….

Randle McMurphy

Anyone else notice the on ice style / visual resemblance between Joel Maatta and JP?

Skates like him, holds his stick like him, STRONG positional play like him. Gets into scoring position but not noticeable/obvious finishing skills.

Differences… Maatta is a Center; Maatta is a top penalty killer for the Finns; Maatta’s playmaking / passing looks good; Matta occasionally goes to the net front and stays there.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
€√¥£€^$

To my eye it is uncanny how much Shore looks like JP on the ice

leadfarmer

Patches out with an Achilles’ tendon. 6 months seems optimistic

OriginalPouzar

I don’t see Munzenburger on the lineup card posted by Wheeler….

Harpers Hair

David Pagnotta
@TheFourthPeri0d

Sources: Nazem Kadri and NYI have agreed on a contract, 7 years x $7.25 Mil AAV. NTC throughout the whole contract.

jp

Wow. You can see why Colorado balked at that one.

leadfarmer

Well signing him could have really screwed them if they need 13 mil for Mackinnon

Harpers Hair

Erik Johnson’s $6 million comes off the cap next season.

OriginalPouzar

It was expected but ludicrous for a 32 year old to start with and even mores given this past season was the clear offensive outlier.

I suspect 50 points for the Isles and, of course, material regression quickly.

I was hoping the flames or Avs signed him to a contract like this.

OriginalPouzar

This info was from a fake account.

There is still hope the flames or Avs will sign him to a ludicrous term contract.

OriginalPouzar

6-1 win for Finland – no points for Maatta and I didn’t really notice him all that much (but was definitely not paying full attention to the game) – I did see him as “looking big”, willing to use his big frame in battle and positionally sound.

Here is hoping Munzenbuger is a bit more prominent in the game that starts now.

jp

Checking in on the World Jrs, Joel Maatta didn’t post any crooked numbers today in Finland’s 6-1 win over Latvia (Kemell, Raty and Hirvonen were the scoring stars).

Maatta did however have 3 SOG and lead all Finnish forwards with 16:25 in TOI, so the stat sheet does give some indication why the Oilers drafted him.

Harpers Hair

Brennan Klak

Max Pacioretty will undergo surgery to repair a torn Achilles. 

He’s out six months, which puts his expected return to #Canes around February/March.

Mulroneys Mandible

I would posit this as old news…

Harpers Hair

I would posit it as post with a source as Lowetide has requested.

meanashell11

Like your source for the Kadri signing!

Harpers Hair

Brennan Klak

The #Canes cap space now depends on if they use their buyout window on Jake Gardiner (that opened today due to the Maxime Lajoie scheduled case)

If they buyout Gardiner, they’ll have close to 8.8M to play with if Pacioretty goes to LTIR – otherwise, they’ll have only a bit.

OriginalPouzar

Max P. has torn his achilles and is out 6 months…..

jp

Brutal for Carolina.

Kadri?

OriginalPouzar

Perhaps but I don’t see the Canes, of all franchies, giving out huge term to a 32 year old – if Kadri is still holding out for term.

Also, the scheduled return is well before the season ends….. they have the extra cap space now but, presumably, it disappears (and the league will be live to them trying to “delay” by a material period of time).

jp

I wasn’t thinking of them giving too much term, just thinking of the possibility since they had some cap open up unexpectedly. It seems like Kadri has just signed with NYI in any case.

Victoria Oil

Maybe it wasn’t such a bad trade by VGK after all.

Gerta Rauss

Carolina Hurricanes
@Canes
·
Follow
DONE DEAL

Martin Necas has signed a 2-year contract with the #Canes! 

===================

2 years $3M per

Just an fyi

Last edited 2 years ago by Gerta Rauss
106 and 106

According to the CBA, Oilers should get a re-capture credit of $3,438,462 for the retirement of Keith.

NHL aren’t allowing this, but haven’t given a reason even if it’s written in the CBA.

Can this be appealed?

That extra money would mean little extra roster movement needed.

Crazy Pedestrian

We all know the reason…

#becauseoilers

Gerta Rauss

The Dead Sea scrolls bring more clarity and lucidity than anything related to the CBA and how the NHL interprets it ( the CBA, not the scrolls)

OriginalPouzar

My career is based on highly complex legal contracts – I literally negotiate and draft 175 page (plus schedules) syndicated credit agreements for a living – sometimes for credit in the billions.

Even with this background, I’ve come across numerous provisions of the CBA that I have had a HELL OF A time interpreting and couldn’t do so with absolute legal certainty.

OriginalPouzar

A few things on this:

1) I don’t actually agree that the CBA provides for this. The CBA provides some wording regarding a cap penalty for contract there were disposed of and the disposing team paid the player more than the cap hit they incurred.

The CBA then provides pages and pages of detailed and complex examples.

Nowhere have I read about a negative cap recapture “bonus” for a team that acquires a contract and the player retires and the team received a higher cap hit than the salary/comp paid.

I also don’t think that such a “bonus” is the intent of the provision.

Lastly, I would note that, if Keith had just played out the last year and not retired, there would be no talk of this and the premise would be the same vis-a-vis the Oilers.

2) From Holland himself, when the trade went down, the Oilers were advised there would be no such cap benefit. Presumably the Oilers went to the league for an interpretation of the provision. If this was the case, I do agree with the league’s interpretation of the provision drafted.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Not doubting your interpretation of the CBA, but how does the clause allow for a negative penalty to VAN when Luongo retired yet not for EDM when Keith retired?

On the surface, a layman would see both situations as distinctly similar.

Last edited 2 years ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
BornInAGretzkyJersey

Should add, Gregor expressed his disbelief at the situation because, “it’s in the CBA… and I can’t get a clear answer from it,” on a recent episode of the DFO podcast.

Source: https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMNp9vHQg/

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I’ve listened to Gregor say that but its not actually the case – from reading the CBA provisions. The speak to Cap Recapture Advantages and “charges against the cap”.

It makes no reference to revise cap benefits.

OriginalPouzar

The clause provides for “Cap Recapture Advantage” penalties – like the Canucks received and like the Hawks received.

It does not provide for a concurrent negative cap recapture benefit.

Redbird62

Because Luongo was traded at a time when his cash salary was higher than his cap hit, so both teams received a benefit from having a lower cap hit than Luongo got paid during his career so both had to pay that advantage back. In the Keith case, only Chicago received a benefit during Keith’s contract so only they could be penalized.

€√¥£€^$

Isn’t this whole discussion based on available $’s league-wide for signing players to Contracts, in this case Keith’s retirement ends up removing $3,438,462 from the pool of money available league-wide. This being the case I can see this as the basis for a challenge by the NHLPA.

It is not about giving Edmonton an advantage per se, it is about re-instating that portion of the league-wide salary pool, so that more players can get contracts.

This sounds like the basis for a plausible enough argument to me. I haven’t crunched the numbers to see the actual league-wide numbers or analyzed every applicable season to do the same. If this were done and it holds true, it would be good ammo for a grievance, no?

Alternatively, if not the team, NHLPA, what is stopping fans or season ticket holders from filing some form of grievance or petition or action?

Last edited 2 years ago by €√¥£€^$
OriginalPouzar

Maatta listed as the 2C.

OriginalPouzar

Reminder that Finland and Joel Maatta (vs. Latvia) starts in just a few minutes.

Randle McMurphy

“Teams have four different “roster” limits to balance under the league’s regulations; a 20-player “dressed list” for games, a 23-player active NHL roster, a 50-contract maximum, and a 90-player maximum reserve list.”

In terms of the 20-player dressed list…

When going 12-7-1


Given their TOI in all situations, as far as the “dressed list” goes, we should consider McDrai as 3 players

Randle McMurphy

I think I didn’t say this right. What I meant was when Ken Holland is considering whether to sign 21, 22 or 23 players to the 23 player active roster, he doesn’t really need 23 because of McDrai ice time equalling that of 3 players

Randle McMurphy

Randle’s Original Thought O’ The Day:

“The Hart Memorial Trophy is an annual award given “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team.” ”

In the Cap Era should the criteria for this award not include consideration of the players contract?

It’s not an award for straight up points like the Art Ross; It’s an award that looks at several different factors to determine a players “value to his team”. In this day and age, what’s more valuable than a players contract???

Who is worth more to his team, Nathan MacKinnon at $6.3m or Austin Mathews at $11.64m ??

This comparison seams crystal clear to me.

It may not be the heaviest weighted factor, but given the descriptor “most valuable to his team”, I cannot see how AVV is not a heavily weighted factor.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
leadfarmer

Mackinnon got his cup
Sounds like now he wants to get paid

Material Elvis

Remember when he said that he would sign for less to keep the team together? Lol.

Harpers Hair

Dom at the Athletic has his Market value pegged at $17.2 million.

https://theathletic.com/3062997/2022/04/18/nhl-player-cards-colorado-avalanche/

What would you consider a discount?

meanashell11

If he’s worth $17.5M, McD is worth $25M.

Harpers Hair

Dom has him pegged at $20 million

leadfarmer

Dom doesn’t believe in the salary cap
(add up all the cap hits)

Harpers Hair

It’s a non-cap exercise based on how much a player contributes to winning.

leadfarmer

12 million fair. 10 million discount

Material Elvis

He will sign for fair market value. If he went to free agency, I think he would get $12-13M per year. So it will be that much.

Harpers Hair

Yeah…I think somewhere in that range.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

I’d fade that by $5 million. If I’m feeling generous maybe $4.5. I think Panarin, Karlson and Tavares were all overpaid and Matthews is better than MacKinnon. So somewhere in there but obviously less than McDavid.

Nichuskin gets $10.5 at market value eh? That seems a touch high.

Draisaitl at $14.6 million seems a tad low. This man will get the Malkin treatment from the press his whole career. Don’t think he’ll care too much though. Fun fact he’s one of only five active players with 3, 100 point seasons in his career.

McDavid at $20 is about right. Going to be weird when he comes in at or below his current deal on his re-up Crosby style. By the end of his playing career you could estimate he’ll be worth about half a billion.

Figure Draisaitl gets a bump into $12 million territory. Would like to see him at or near $11.75. Could surprise and come in lower.

Let Mackinnon and Matthews fight over the highest paid title. Other things are more important.

Harpers Hair

Thing is…once escrow is paid off there is expected to be a very large jump in the cap.

Some have said it will hit $100 million very quickly.

MacKinnon is going to re-sign before that happens and Draisaitl and McDavid will be after so I expect they will be much more expensive in the long run.

leadfarmer

Sure. But we are also hanging out along the rim of a recession so he may get a ridiculous overpay

Harpers Hair

And that would then apply to all signings..

godot10

MacKinnon and Matthews would get 7 x $15 if they sign elsewhere. 10% less, 8 x $13.5 if they stay in Colorado and Toronto.

I think MacKinnon stays and Matthews goes.

Hy and Drai

Is your Mackinnon / Matthew’s evaluation based only on the regular season?

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

No I think MacKinnon is the Ryan Lochte of NHL hockey. A good but not great player surrounded by players clearly superior but cause of the initial love thrown his way (Moosheads, Crosby connection, etc) gets a lot more love.

Matthews is simply the better player all around at all times.

leadfarmer

So when he signs for 13-14 mil a year you’re gonna use this number as I told you he will take a discount to keep the band together aren’t you?

Harpers Hair

Absolutely because it is true.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

True because it’s legitimate or because Dom’s model says so?

How efficacious are his models, or that of Evolving Wild for that matter?

Hint, not stellar.

Harpers Hair

His models beat the bookies year after year.

Thats stellar.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Remember when Hall said the same, that he’s “made his money” and now wants his best chance at the Cup?

Then he goes and signs with BUF & BOS. LOL

OriginalPouzar

As far as his desire to be the highest paid player in the league (if true), well, frankly, he merits a higher AAV than McDavid’s current $12.5MM.

Is he “worth more than McDavid”? Of course not but, of course, when McDavid re-signs in 4 years, he’ll be $15M (perhaps more if the cap is at $95MM).

Now, if MacKinnon is looking for $15MM AAV next off-season, that’s somewhat unreasonable, for me, vis-a-vis the current cap structure but something in the $13MM range sounds about right.

Randle McMurphy

Using a hypothetical comparison to further assess one’s “commitment” to a position…

If you could only keep ONE of Jessie Puljujarvi or Ryan McLeod, which would you choose?

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
LMHF#1

McLeod. Rather easily.

People have been underestimating this guy big time. And you could likely lock him up long term at a reasonable rate if you’re proactive.

I’m concerned he leaves to be a 2C elsewhere in the next couple years. Hopefully he loves winning as a 3C more than an enhanced role. Though he could still wind up as a top six winger.

David

I raised this same question mid season including Yamo as well and McLeod was my choice. His playmaking is heavily underrated and he still has track left to grow.

LadiesloveSmid

If Jesse has another season like 2021-22 (e.g. +9.10 xGF% rel) then definitely him.

And McLeod might be my favourite oiler right now.

hunter1909

McLeod is one of those players you dream about every season – the unheralded, post 1st round draft pick who somehow buys into the program and not only performs but can potentially dominate.

There were many times during games I assumed it was McDavid flying through all of the zones leaving defenders standing still but it was McLeod.

All McLeod needs to do now(I’ll bet money he reads Lowetide lol) is start finishing more like his captain. Or even finishing like a more similar player Zack Hyman.

Puljujarvi is still alright but for all of the drama that we 2nd tier fans are forced to deal with. For a 3rd overall pick he stinks.

OriginalPouzar

Listening to the DFO Rundown and Seravelli was talking about the Isles and potential of Kadri, etc. It was an aside but he mentioned that, coming off a 50 point season, Dobson’s probably looking at $6M-$7M.

The Bouchard contract is going to be material even if he isn’t full time PP1 (we know he will get plenty of reps there through the season) and I don’t think 60 plus points is out of the question or even unreasonable to think about or project.

This is going to be the one really material contract over the next couple of years.

Here is hoping the parties are both amenable to signing early and are at least thinking about early stage discussions.

Randle McMurphy

When you say signing early, can you elaborate?

Now? Spring? Summer?

Putting dollars aside, what term is optimal for you?

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
OriginalPouzar

He’s available to sign at any time now so, yes, now would be ideal.

Realistically, I don’t see any pen to paper prior to the end of summer at the earlier and likely not until early in to the season if this gets done early at all. I don’t think it does get done before next off-season but I will hope and, if it does, I think that would be the likely timeline.

Bouch is like 22 so optimal term is 8 years but, of course, that is the most expensive AAV link and I can’t formulate an official opinion on term without considering AAV at the different contract lengths.

Randle McMurphy

Thank you.

Randle McMurphy

Hmmm.. 2nd breakfast was delicious. They looked at me cross-eyed when I ordered the vintae vontae.

I know that two trades (trade-offs) a trend does not make, but…

Florida gives up Huberdeau (and Weager) for Tkachuk.

and it appears that NYI are willing to move out Mathew Barzal to make room for Nazim Kadri..

What do these moves have in common?

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
meanashell11

Cannot believe how Barzal has fallen off a cliff and he has a $7M cap hit next year and will be RFA at the end. Crazy. His best season was his first.

godot10

Cough, Cough…Trotz…Cough,Cough.

Trotz is a hard system coach. McDavid would fall off a cliff points wise playing for Trotz. If one has 20 robots, Trotz would be my coach.

Harpers Hair

Barzal would be a perfect fit in Calgary.

meanashell11

and I hope they sign him to a $10m+ x 8 extension. That would be perfect.

Reja

He’s in a contract year he’ll be hungry to get the set for life 7-8 contract that these players know is there for the taking.

Harpers Hair

Pretty easy for Calgary to do with both Monahan and Lucic off the books and only one year left on Backlund’s deal.

flyfish1168

Why would anyone want to play in Calgary? Their window to win the Stanley is closed. Their travel is not great and the city is just OK.

leadfarmer

Probably Barzal has been unhappy and will not sign on the Island

cowboy bill

If the competition for 4c is between Shore & Malone and if Holloway is in tough to make the team on LW. Then why not let him complete for 4c against Shore & Malone ?

OriginalPouzar

One thing for sure is that Holloway won’t play RW. I bring this up solely because you have posted about him being able to play all three positions on multiple platforms and haven’t acknowledged any responses thereto (which state that he didn’t take a shift of RW in his last year of college nor in Bakersfield – that I saw and I watched about 80% of the AHL games and over 50% of those NCAA games).

Yes, 4C could very well be an option for Holloway, and its a good point. He played center in his last season at Wisconsin (and I believe in the AJHL but can’t say for sure). He didn’t play center at all last season in the AHL but that may have been due to his thumb/wrist not being near 100% until late in the year (after he missed another month with the thigh injury and was a completely different shooter after that).

I think the org might see him as a winger going forward but that’s just a personal thought based on useage and organizational depth.

OriginalPouzar

Also, I do think that McLeod should be in the conversation for 4C and going full on 4 center strong.

I posted at length about this yesterday so won’t go in to detail on my thoughts (happy to though if anyone wants to discuss) but, while I absolutely think he has earned “up the lineup” minutes, 3C at the least, I do think they can find “enough minutes” for him at 4C if they commit to 8-10 minutes for that line and he is looking at PK1 and legit PP2 minutes.

Of course, if the team is down/trailing and they need to up the McDavid/Drai minutes, they can shorten the bench and McLeod will be moved up.

cowboy bill

They list Holloway playing all three forward positions on capfriendly, that’s what I was going by . But thanks for not totally disagreeing with my thoughts, like so many do without giving much thought to what I’m trying to say.

OriginalPouzar

1) I am providing the factual information that he hasn’t played right wing at all since the day he was drafted, not in NCAA and not in the AHL. You have posted, on multiple platforms, that he can play RW and that’s an option for the Oilers – it really isn’t based on, well, reality of the last couple of years notwithstanding what capfriendly says.

Capfriendly also provides that Janmark is a LW/C whereas the player himself after signed expressed publicly that he is a winger and was transitioned to wing as soon as he came to the NHL.

2) I did speak to the premise of your post and the potential to play center, acknowledged it was a good point and spoke to the premise with my thoughts.

godot10

That is how I see it. I think 12 forwards. (Foegele traded).

Kane McDavid Yamamoto
Hyman Draisaitl Bourgault
Nugent-Hopkins McLeod Puljujarvi
Janmark Holloway Ryan

There are like 6 centres in the 12 forwards.

And there might be a lot of 11 forwards and seven D

Redbird62

If RNH and McLeod are on the 3rd line together. I strongly suspect RNH is the primary center on the line.

cowboy bill

IMO Nuge is needed as a top six winger , since there is plenty of depth at center as Godot has suggested.

OriginalPouzar

Presuming health, Bourgault is going be excel at camp and he’s going to get alot of ink.

If both Jesse and Kailer are healthy for opening night, it would be quite surprising to see Bourgault in the opening night lineup (he MAY be on the opening roster submission due to his small performance bonuses).

Just last week, I listened to Holland was poetic about extra development time for all but the most special players – extra years in the NCAA and in the AHL, etc. – in response to a question about Bourgault on the roster.

I’ve got big fans for Bourgault to make the right side an area of strength (depth to have Yamamooto or Jesse as 3RW is championship level depth) – not so sure its happening in October.

cowboy bill

I’m going to suggest they might even look for more center depth .

OriginalPouzar

Johan Larsson could be a legit target – it would be better if he shot right, however, if they want Nuge in the top 6 (or McLeod to not play below the 3rd line and as a center), there is a hole at 4C.

Ryan is an option but the team likes him better as a winger at this stage (and he’s needed at RW). As you mention, Holloway is a potential option at center but (1) I’m not sure they don’t see him as a winger going forward and (2) even if they do see him at center potentially, I’m not positive they would want him to start his NHL career there.

Other than that, we are looking at Shore and Malone…….

OriginalPouzar

Gretzky grinding in the off-season – 5 signed to AHL deals with the Condors. McPhee is the one Oilers draft pick and its a one-way AHL deal and the other four are “lesser prospects” who have played multiple years pro and are on 2-way AHL deals. To put it another way, none of these players are actually NHL prospects and I would be utterly shocked if any of them ever played an NHL game (maybe not even ever playing an NHL exhibition game) – just filling out the Condors’ (and Commet’s) roster:

https://www.bakersfieldcondors.com/news/condors-sign-five-to-ahl-deals-3/

The Bakersfield Condors signed five players to American Hockey League (AHL) contracts today. Graham McPhee was signed to a one-year, one-way AHL deal, while Matt Boudens, Drake Rymsha, Mark Rassell, and Samuel Dove-McFalls were signed to one-year, two-way AHL contracts.

McPhee (stats) has played 33 games over two seasons with the Condors and registered 11 points (5g-6a). The winger was drafted in the fifth round (#149 overall) by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2016 NHL Draft.

Boudens (stats) enters his fourth professional season having split the previous three between the AHL and the ECHL. The forward has five assists in 42 career AHL games with Henderson and Chicago. The 28-year old has 41 points (19g-22a) in 87 games at the ECHL level with Fort Wayne and helped the Komets capture the 2021 Kelly Cup.

Rymsha (stats) begins his fifth professional season having skated in 49 games (1g-8a-9pts) with the Hershey Bears and 11 games (10g-8a-18pts) with the Komets last season. The d-man has 14 points (2g-12a) in 87 career AHL games with Ontario and Hershey. He was drafted in the fifth round (#138 overall) of the 2017 NHL Draft by the Los Angeles Kings.

Rassell (stats) enters his first professional season after appearing in two regular-season games and six Kelly Cup Playoff games with Fort Wayne in 2021-22. Before advancing to the University of New Brunswick, the 25-year old forward was a teammate of James Hamblin with the Medicine Hat Tigers of the Western Hockey League (WHL). He led the team in scoring his final season in 2017-18, amassing 50 goals and 30 assists for 80 points in 70 games.

Dove-McFalls (stats) registered four points (1g-3a) in 11 games with Grand Rapids (AHL) at the end of last season. The 25-year old played three seasons at the University of New Brunswick, twice winning the Atlantic University Sport (AUS) title and a U Sports University Cup. He was drafted in the fourth round (#98 overall) of the 2015 NHL Draft by Philadelphia.

OriginalPouzar

Carter Savoie could set Bakersfield ablaze with his goal scoring but he hasn’t done it yet.

I’m not trying to be “overly negative” and I don’t dislike this prospect or his potential but I just want to stay guarded on Savoie.

I watched a ton of his games in Denver post-draft and his sip of coffee in the AHL.

There is big potential there given his shot and his offensive instincts.

I just think its going to take him some time to adapt to the pro game – I don’t question his work ethic and commitment – I saw massive improvements in his game away from the puck and his commitment to battle through his time in Denver and I suspect I will see the same through his time in the AHL.

I simply think there is going to be a development curve for the likes of Savoie (similar to my opinion on Tulio). His speed is good but his edges aren’t great and its going to require some improvement which is tough while adapting to pro.

Randle McMurphy

“…it’s folly to even try….We’ll just have to wait and see”

I’m taking you’re advice on that.

But your jaunt down memory lane and today’s chosen lyric put me in mind of a not to distant past When there was talk of storming the offices at Kingsway with tiki torches and pitchforks. When our fate was decided at Red Wine Summits; When there was a “Fire Kevin Lowe” Billboard;

We’ve come a long long way have we not?

“Ninety-nine angry fans
Matches and petrol canisters
Regarded themselves as clever people
Already on the scent of a hunt
They shouted, “War,” and wanted those in power gone!
Man, who would have thought
That someday it would come this far
Because of ninety-nine protesters”

Randle McMurphy

That’s all I got.

Off to 2nd breakfast….. at Vin’s….

Going to order up some eggs benny and a double double Vintae Vontae 😉

Peace Out.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
OriginalPouzar

Xavier Bourgault could make the NHL by Christmas if everything breaks right, but could be delayed until next season. 

This will be an interesting one to watch. When Holland was asked about Bourgault (I think it was you LT), I believe Holland’s response was, essentially, he would need to beat someone out of a job and went on a tangent about how valuable AHL development time is and how its really only special players that wouldn’t benefit from extra development time.

As of right now, I have Yamamoto and Puljujarvi as the top 2 RWs – I keep Kane and Hyman on the left side and Nuge in the middle on the 3rd line.

One of the potential areas for upgrade during the season may be a RW for the top 6 – both Jesse and Yamo are 100% serviceable in that role and one or both may pop this season to “true top 6 wingers” but its likely that only 1 (or neither) does. Both of those guys would be amazing 3RWs if there was another top 6 RW option.

Maybe that guy is Bourgault. He is in the “all but lock for the NHL category” and the question really is “time of arrival” and, after arriving, how long until he’s “top 6 ready” vis-a-vis the level of comp top 6 faces.

There is a non-zero change Bourgault is that in-season top 6 RW acquisition, for free. Its probably not likely and, if he does arrive this season, its probably “middle six” but its not out of the realm of reasonableness.

OriginalPouzar

I think most of us see Philip Broberg as the prospect with the strongest chance to make the team, and Stuart Skinner as a 90 percent bet for the backup job in net. 

Holland did say yesterday that Broberg would “have to play himself off the team” – it would be fairly shocking if he wasn’t on the team at 6D as I don’t see them adding someone like Subban, etc. unless its a trade (of Barrie) and a sign. Subban wouldn’t be added to be the extra D.

I would say Skinner is 100% (well, 99.9%) subject to injury. I can’t imagine that Fanti “wins the job” as Holland will assuredly want him to have more than 1 game of pro and Pickard is a sole 3G option – I can’t see him “winning the job” even if he lets zero goals in during exhibition.

I say the above without even considering that Skinner is eligible for waivers, its a merit based comment/opinion

pts2pndr

It will be fun to watch what Woody and Manson come up with for line combinations and defensive pairings. It would not surprise me if they play a large number of games dressing 7 D unless they make a trade to pick up an experienced defensive right D.

OriginalPouzar

They may even be forced in to 7D without access to 12 healthy forwards….. if they start the season with a 21 player roster that is barely cap compliant (current situation) or even a 22 player roster.

pts2pndr

I don’t see Holland going that route but it will be interesting to watch!

OriginalPouzar

I don’t either – maybe 22 but not down to 21 (and 22 requires a move of cap out in any event).

Holland has never brought up the premise (short roster), at least that I’ve heard (and I think I’ve listened to everything he’s had to say in public), he’s only acknowledged it when asked about it as an option directly (as LT did the other week) and he’s fairly clear he doesn’t want to go that route (at least not down to 21).

OriginalPouzar

Troy Bodie and Colin McDonald each played apx 150 NHL games????? Holy hell, when did that happen?

OriginalPouzar

The prospects Oilers fans are counting on won’t deliver 100 percent of the time. On the other hand, someone in the system getting fed in the comments section today will rise to an NHL career.

I would posit that, while we talk about the growing depth of the prospect pool, the only players that are all but sure bets to “make it” and in prominent roles are: Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault. Perhaps Reid Schnieder will make that list within a year, but I don’t have him there yet.

The depth of “real prospects” has grown and is substantial and a big plus for the org but each of the other current prospects in the system are not “sure things” to have every day NHL careers, all of them have some sort of “flaw” at this stage and all require real development time: Tulio, Savoie, Petrov, Lavoie, Berezkin, Denezkin (sp), Rodrigue, Kesselring, Kemp, Munzenburger, etc. Even the “vet prospects” like Samorukov, Niemelainen, Fanti, Philp – there are no “sure things” on these lists.

Skinner is kind of in a “middle category” and he could be a lock for an NHL career within 6-8 months from now.

LMHF#1

Having read some stuff he’s put out in the past couple of years, it sounds like Schremp’s main issue was dealing with a lot of mental health challenges for much of his career.

Patrick O’Sullivan clearly had many of the same challenges for different reasons.

I’m hoping teams are more capable of identifying and assisting nowadays. Mostly for the benefit of the individual person trying to live their life and their dream of course – but also because these are extremely talented people who could help a team. It’s worth the work!

Harpers Hair

Via DFO Rundown, @frank_seravalli
:

“I think (the #isles) put an offer on the table for Kadri. Other teams have told me they believe it’s in the 7×7 range.”

OriginalPouzar

Remember that pic of Broberg on the beach from a few years back – lean and shredded.

Well, the kid is turning in to a man – still shredded but more beastly.

Atta boy Phil!

https://twitter.com/worldhockeyrpt/status/1557030129984872449?s=21&t=QzsFfgLVhs5HANotvMrg6A

Reja

Hopefully he wasn’t made at the same Glass Factory as the last Swede that was so called ripped.

MushedPeas

More dreamy than anything else.

OriginalPouzar

Injury history is starting to become a concern with Broberg, then again, same with Samorukov, Holloway, Bourgault, Niemelainen, Kemp, etc. – all hurt materially multiple times.

jp

Have Broberg and Bourgault been hurt materially, multiple times?

OriginalPouzar

Yes:

1) Broberg got hurt (twice) at the World Juniors (seperate shoulder and torn knee muscle) and missed time in the SHL after. I believe he missed close to a month earlier this year with an ankle. I believe there was another injury that I can’t recall.

2) Bourgualt got hurt at the world juniors and missed considerable time after with the concussion. He is currently still dealing with the abdominal injury that was sustained months ago and, from accounts, still not 100%.

jp

I know Broberg had at least one injury this year. I don’t consider the WJr injuries material though since he missed so little time with them. He missed a game or two at the tournament, and a few league games but nothing significant (he played 44 of 52 SHL games, and a number of the missed games were from the WJr tournament rather than injury).

Bourgault missing that time with a concussion is a misconception. He said in an interview earlier this summer that he’d have played again if the tournament hadn’t been canceled. He did play the first QMJHL game after returning, which is where he got the one major injury. I assumed that injury is the same one that he’s still feeling the effects of, but I’m not certain of that.

Our definition of ‘material’ may differ, but I’d count (I think) just one material injury for each of Broberg and Bourgault. For me that’s not enough to reasonably think injury history is becoming a concern for those two, though it certainly is for guys like Holloway and Samorukov.

OriginalPouzar

I recall Broberg’s post WJC season being FAR inferior than his start that year. I would suggest his injury was with him for the season.

You may be right on Bourgault but I would suggest that if he’s still dealing win an injury sustained last December/January, that’s something.

jp

There’s no question they’ve had injuries. I just think that for the most part if a player is playing through an injury, it’s not overly serious one.

So I would count only one serious/significant/material injury for each of Broberg and Bourgault. You may not agree, and I may be missing an injury, but as I said I don’t think injury prone should be a concern for either of these players at this point.

BTW, was Broberg’s World Jr injury a torn knee muscle? I thought it was a charlie horse.

OriginalPouzar

Torn muscle above the knee and a separated shoulder.

Reja

Benson and especially Marody who probably would have had a fair opportunity the way he was playing before the Concussion by a goon.

OriginalPouzar

That initial Kale Kessy attack really set him back and may have changed the trajectory of his career. Took close to two years for him to be fully back (from my eye) and those were prime development/opportunity years….

Andy Dufresne

Dreamy2.0… female attendance at the games will be on the rise.

Redbird62

Not sure how Lambert won the day over Wilson. Sure he had the better career, but Lambert and Wilson played -300 games teammates on the habs and Wilson got his name on the cup 3 times. Lambert was the better goal scorer in juniors and the minors so it’s not surprising he scored more in the pros.

Reja

I wish we had a Tremblay, Risebrough, Lambert line, especially come Playoff time.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Anytime LT writes about the early 2000s Oilers I am in awe of the constant stream of NHL talent leaving Edmonton. Very glad that phenomenon is mostly over.

kelvjn

Maybe the Manificant Bastard era wasn’t as bad as we remembered to be (at least before their obsession in power forwads /coke machines).

Victoria Oil

99 Luftballons is much better than the English version, IMO. Fun fact: Nena has 6 grandchildren. Man, we (or most of us, here) are getting old. I’m not in Nena’s home country of Germany today, but I am relatively close in Vienna.

judgedrude

Agreed…and to LT’s comment:

“I am here to tell you no you don’t and it’s folly to even try”

But everyone thinks they’re Captain Kirk…

meanashell11

Sade is 63 for crying out loud! Where did my youth go!

Randle McMurphy

Vienna! How nice for you. I assume it’s a vacation. Perhaps you can follow up with a short post with your top 3 Vienna highlights, or your general impression of Austria.

I know it’s not Austrian-German but …. Hasta La Vista Baby!

Halfwise

Nice city, well worth a visit if you are in the neighborhood.

The biggest disappointment for me was KafkaStrasse. It was straight and simple without any ironic twists at all.

meanashell11

This is really good!

Randle McMurphy

Ha!

Ding! Ding! Ding!
Gewinner Gewinner 
Huhn Abendessen!
Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Ok so not Vienna – Prague but your KafkaStrasse comment made me think of this.

Prague’s Kafka International Named Most Alienating Airport

Halfwise

It’s only disturbing if you are expecting something familiar and useful, right?

OriginalPouzar

We get to watch some Oilers prospects today – for those who choose.

World Juniors: Finland and Joel Maatta and Germany and Luca Munzenburger both in action today (I believe 4 and 8 mountain, respectively).

I am expecting Munzenburger to be a prominant player for Germany – he had a great start to the prior tourney prior to cancellation – all situations player for Germany.

doritogrande

“JFJ gets a stat!” is one of my all-time favourite Lowetide quotes. I still turn it out when cheering for an underperforming pet-prospect.

judgedrude

Like JFJ, if only Benson was put on the first line, we could see the results pour in…

It would be great if Benson could perform on the 3rd line, though. I’ve heard in the past that a good passer with a finnish kid that could shoot straight can have some magic.

OriginalPouzar

JFJ was the worst NHL player I’ve seen the Oilers employ.

There was a point, well in to his NHL career, where he took a puck at center, made a move and was able to dump the puck in for a line change and I remember thinking to myself: “That’s the most effective play I’ve seen JFJ make at the NHL level.”.

northerndancer

JFJ the worst? Does the name Will Acton mean anything to you OP?

OriginalPouzar

I’m sticking with JFJ and I cite my post above as reasons why.

meanashell11

My ex is from Chicoutimi and the year we drafted JDD my sons and I met him during preseason with the Sags. I said I was looking forward to seeing him in the AHL and he responded he was going directly to the NHL once done in Chicoutimi! He had a lot of confidence but no glove hand!

meanashell11

 “I know you know better than everyone else, but I am here to tell you no you don’t and it’s folly to even try.”

I know this has to be aimed at at least one specific poster. Book it!

Pretendergast

“Folly to even try”. Not puttin a man on the moon with that attitude.

I’ve learned more from being wrong than not trying at all.

My first real lesson in Oiler prognosticating was thinking Aidan Muir was going to be a player because age curve. I’d like to think my assessment of players has improved since then. Glad I took the plunge at being so spectacularly wrong.

Mayan Oil

Hear,Hear! These are largely just kids… cautious optimism is always the best play with kids, I find.

OriginalPouzar

I would agree that there weren’t reasonable “great hopes” on draft day but McLeod was ranked in the 1st round on many lists so there was a reasonable projection of an NHL career.

His draft plus 1 in junior and then his early pro development was indeed uneven, and the lack of offence continued to be a thing.

To be where we are with this player today, on the verge of a legit decade long 3C (with upside), is so heartening.

pts2pndr

Depends on the mistake. Many peoples first mistake is their last! Sometimes we call them accidents!