The Oilers would have given significant riches for a player like Warren Foegele (as he currently plays) in the fall of 2015. That kind of winger, young and with some skill, would have been a solid third-line player behind Taylor Hall and David Perron on left wing.
Now, the team has too many good players and not enough cap room, so someone has to go. Have the Oilers ever had too many good wingers? Why yes, yes it has happened before.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
TWO GREAT WINGERS WHO WERE DEALT BECAUSE OF COMPETITION
- LW Martin Rucinsky was drafted in 1991, age 20. He was close to NHL-ready playing 1991-92 with the Cape Breton Oilers (35 games, 11-12-23), but the Oilers employed Craig Simpson, Esa Tikkanen, Petr Klima, Martin Gelinas and Troy Mallette. One day I’ll do a post of Mallette, but today isn’t the day. Glen Sather traded Rucinsky before he know what he could be, a fairly rare Slats move.
- LW Miro Satan was drafted in 1993, age 18. By 1995-96, he had demolished the AHL and was pushing for playing time in Edmonton. One problem. The Oilers were young and good on the wings. Ryan Smyth, Andrei Kovalenko (both scored 30+ in 1996-97), Marius Czerkawski (26 goals), Mike Grier (15), Todd Marchant (14, he also played center), Dean McAmmond (12) and Rem Murray (11) were all solid players. Satan couldn’t push up to one of the skill lines despite scoring 17 goals in 64 games, and he was dealt to Buffalo.
POSSIBLE 2022-23 OILERS ROSTER
Warren Foegele is dealt for a draft pick, Phil Kessel is signed for one year and Ryan McLeod for two years. There’s $98,000 unspent and three men on the LTIR. I like this more than deadling Jesse Puljujarvi, it allows Zach Hyman to stay on LW, and all four lines look balanced. The defense isn’t proven, but that’s different than saying it’s poor. I believe the balance photo may appear this September.
PATRICE BERGERON
The Boston Bruins signed center Patrice Bergeron today, he is 37 and has played over 1,200 regular-season games in the NHL. I’m thrilled. He represents the best of the Bruins this century and surely is an all-time great in Boston and in the entire league. I suspect this is the final season, and also suspect the B’s should trade David Pastrnak right now and acknowledge the poor drafting after Charlie McAvoy in 2016, but none of it matters today. Bergeron the Great is back for another year. I mention this because it’s such a cool victory lap for a great player. Maybe one dozen years from now, Stanleys won, records broken, awards to the moon, Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl will sign for a year just to watch the river run one more time. It’s a pleasing story to those who loved watching Bergeron in wonder.
BRANDON DAVIDSON
Brandon Davdson didn’t play in the NHL last season, if he’s done with the league the defenseman will have played 180 NHL games. We often use 200 games as the ‘line in the sand’ for bona fide, but in my opinion Davidson belongs on a list of defensemen whose quality never reached the level that was possible due to injury. Matthew Tkachuk did him dirty years ago, behind the Oilers net, and I don’t think he was ever the same player.
There are two reasons I mention it. Oilers fans are currently discussing Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov and Markus Niemelainen as if all their tomorrows will be healthy and the competition will be fair and even. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, one wonders if we’ll ever see the Samorukov that was possible before shoulders and jaws were hurt. NHL defense is a difficult position to play. Ask Brandon Davidson.
The other reason I mention it is the 2010 draft. Those who have read this blog for a long time know that I trumpeted that draft year as being a monster. In reality the draft delivered four men (Taylor Hall, Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin, Brandon Davidson) who enjoyed significant time in the NHL. I still believe this draft could have been high quality, but injuries to Pitlick, Davidson, Tyler Bunz, Curtis Hamilton, Drew Czerwonka and the sad passing of Kristians Pelss made it a star-crossed draft year for sure. There’s a line in an old country song that goes “if it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all” and that’s the 2010 Oilers draft.
CALGARY FLAMES
Brad Treliving did a helluva job getting out of a tight spot when he dealt Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers for Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. People are ripping Treliving for the Huberdeau contract but when you’re buying seasons that are all unrestriced, the cap hit will be dear. I expect Weegar will be signed too, and that’s good business. I do wonder about the combined hit of Johnny Gaudreau and Tkachuk up front. The Flames effectively replaced one of those players with Huberdeau, but what about the other? I don’t know about the status of Sean Monahan, perhaps signing Nazem Kadri is possible if Monahan is going to remain on LTIR. Either way, I see Edmonton as the top team in the Pacific, followed by Vegas, Los Angeles, Calgary, Vancouver and then the rest. You?
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
It’s a busy day (10-2) at TSN1260, with the Elks loss on the weekend in Vancouver and the big home game against the Roughriders on Saturday. Three more names will go up on the Wall of Honour at half time. We’ll also preview two more NFL teams, talk about the play at homeplate in the Jays-Twins game and preview the World Juniors. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
New for The Athletic: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where? – The Athletic
Thanks for the reminder Low Tide, I had forgotten about the Tkachuk incident with Brandon Davidson. I was a believer that we had a defenseman there… Until Tkachuk flashes a precursor to his future identity.. I for one feel better with him out of Alberta .. and it was an odd thing, but I felt relieved for Calgary when they signed huberdeau.. It just felt better to have our younger brother to the south still in the running.. I think it’s important for Edmonton to have two successful franchises in Alberta .. good for teams travel good for the league. Good for us oilers fans. I bet Brad Treliving is pleased and even though I’m the antithesis of a Calgary fan I hope they win their games against Columbus and especially Florida!
Kevin Weekes
**Breaking News** https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f6a8.svghttps://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f4f0.svg I’m told the
@NYRangers are naming D @JacobTrouba the next Captain of #NYR within 24 hours.
All claims against Oilers owner withdrawn in court. I ended up in ‘awaiting for approval’ when I linked the story on Sportsnet.
I think using the owner’s last name gets it flagged.
Now back to our regular programming!
Yes. People were talking about the story a few weeks ago and claims were being made. I thank you for providing a link and I’m sorry the post was flagged.
I’ll try again since I think it is an important thing to make clear.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/claims-against-edmonton-oilers-owner-daryl-katz-withdrawn/
Another prime example of not commenting or passing judgment until all the facts are known. He might be a weird dude, but he definitely doesn’t deserve to be falsely defamed like that.
Watching for a tick a replay of France v Belgium soccer. Obviously all the players are highly skilled being national teams
They are not trying to win one on ones constantly ie dribble around, beat guys
They are trying to tactically beat the other team, draw them out of position, break the formation down. There are occasional dekes, but it’s secondary
Hockey is the same. The Soviets played soccer in the summer (no holidays comrades), I remember them saying it’s similar
This is the next step for the Oilers. To play the system to a tee, 4 lines, 3 pairs
To control play, assert their will, and let the talent be the hammer
What a beautiful thing it could be. I see it as totally demoralizing to an opponent – the Oilers in control and tight, normal goalies, Connor and Leon coming at you 40 minutes a game, and the rest also a handful
Some non Oiler fans here?
Or just soccer haters? Or both?
Somebody is getting traded Dog-Day odds.
Jesse.48%
Foggy.32%
Yamo. 13%
Barrie. 6%
Ryan. 1%
Ryan could be traded, of course any player can.
Of course, it would only save a max of $375K of cap space after replacing Ryan on the roster. Any of those player listed would need to be replaced on the roster for the purposes of cap calculations.
A curious situation. Something has to give it seems
Just to satisfy my curiosity but given the need for a right winger why do you have JP as the best odds to go?
Wow! Olivia Newton-John passed away at 73 today
Olivia Neutron Bomb haters?
Personally, instead of Kessel, I’m hoping for a decent and young 3rd liner or two like Dahlen. Sprong. Steel. Or Svechnikov. They could probably be signed for a few years for very cheap and be solid contributors.
Kane/McDavid/Puljujarvi at 5 on 5:
160 minutes
10GF/1GA
This is not new information for us but, really, should this not be the opening night top line?
Swap Jesse for Yamo:
192 minute, 17-9 goals
Swap in Hyman and it’s only 9 minutes so a nothing sample. It was no goals and they got killed 1-6 shots.
Yes that is the lineup.
I thought this deserved its own thread:
Holland asked: How much of a wild card are Broberg and Holloway?
Broberg has played 2 years in the SHL and one in the AHL and got his feet wet in the NHL and we were very happy with him. We’re giving Broberg every opportunity to make the team. He’ll need to play his way off the team more than on the team. I’m expecting on of the other d-men on the team (Niemo, Sammy, Deharnias).
Holloway is a bit more challenging with Janmark signing and Foegele is a LW, Nuge may play LW or C, McLeod can play both, Kane is here, Hyman can play both sides. Holloway brings a dimension of speed. He’s 6’1 but, as a young player, he’ll be in Edmonton if he’s in the lineup every night. I don’t want him as a 13F/14F. For me he’s fighting for one of 12 spots. If the coach tells me he wants him in the lineup on opening night, he’ll be on the team. These are the exciting decisions we’ll need to make.
If Holloway can’t beat Janmark I’d be very disappointed and he deserves to get sent down
It’s a long season. He’ll get his chance. I’m not very concerned if he doesn’t make the team out of training camp.
High level Summary of McLeod on ON:
1) Has been at the Hilinka/Gretzky tourney.
2) Back in Vernon now but heading up to Edmonton tomorrow for World Juniors.
3) Happy to avoid arb with both guys. Negotiating a solution is better and relationships are important. Feels good about numbers and players feel good about what they got – looking forward to camp.
4) Acknowledgement the Connor and Leon “drive numbers” and make other players better. Yamo/JP both play with those guys but they do compliment them. It works back and forth but certainly 97/29 make others better. Happy to have both back.
5) Ryan McLeod done “is an inevitability”. He’ll be in signed and he’ll be in camp. Its likely a one or two year deal.
6) I’m pretty much done – its gone quiet. There are some players out there and I’m looking for opportunities but its gone quiet for now. $750K-$1MM is likely the range. Probably will be after labor day for anything additional.
7) Bob asked if there was pressure to get in cap compliance now. Holland said no, there is two months.
8) With growth of forwards and additions we are deeper up front. “the growth of Puljujarvi” specifically mentioned (along with McLeod and Yamamoto). Looking forward to getting to camp and seeing how Holloway and Broberg and Deharnais and Samorukov and Stu Skinner look. The “push to make your team” makes your team better.
9) Feel good about the team today but if I can find someone out there for $750k-850k….. anyone under $1.175MM gives you the flexibility to put them in the AHL and they are off the cap – that’s the beauty of being able to sign guys for $750K to $950K, gives flexibility – waivers and off the cap and can tuck them away in the AHL for more depth. Going to need 14, 15, 16 forwards and 9 or 10 d-men over the course of a season.
10) Did the Oilers success alter the perception re: Edmonton and a viable option? Holland give a 1993 Red Wing example and how they became a destination when they started to win. Players want to play on teams that can win. Lots of the players that Chiarelli left have grown in to important and good players – the McLeods and the Yamamotos. I’ve been in win-now mode but have held on to the first-rounders. Need to draft and develop but we are in the win-now mode and willing spend futures but need to have a push from below. We’ve made the playoffs 3 years in a row and are building. Going to final four – every second night you are the only game in the NHL – the entire hockey world was watching. If we can continue to be competitive and compete with the elite teams – the city, the weather, the country does not matter, players will want to come. Last year was an important step in showing the world how great a place Edmonton is to play – the team, the fans, the passion, the city, the facilities – certainly the final four helps get that news out there.
11) are other agent’s aware of the sable of prior 1st rounders developing and NHL ready D? I believe so. Everyone has information and pro scouts and stats. What I like about those guys is they are 22-24 which is when you enter the NHL as a d-man. Deharnais is 6’7, he’s unique. I’m excited going to training camp. We are deeper on the back. Went on a tangent about the prospect d-men and their age and where they’ve played and they are ready to push. He said Deharnais is 24 which, well, isn’t true.
12) Pre-season games will be important on some decisions
13) Some guys going to AHL may be closer than you think
14) On Koekkoek – talked to his agent recently – expecting him to be in cap – he’s working to get ready and I haven’t heard anything different. Unless something changes, he’ll be at camp.
15) Heading to Hilinka/Gretz was very valuable for information. Has been hearing from scouts that 2023 draft class is a really good draft class, the WHL will be deep. I saw 6-7 Canadian forwards that look like they could be 1st rounders. It was very valuable for me to see these guys and get info. Good info as I head in to the trade deadline and need to make decisions. We’ll be in LTIR and cap strapped but we’ll see where we are.
16) How much of a wild card are Broberg and Holloway – Broberg has played 2 years in the SHL and one in the AHL and got his feet wet in the NHL and we were very happy with him. We’re giving Broberg every opportunity to make the team. He’ll need to play his way off the team more than on the team. I’m expecting on of the other d-men on the team (Niemo, Sammy, Deharnias,
Holloway is a bit more challenging with Janmark signing and Foegele is a LW, Nuge may play LW or C, McLeod can play both, Kane is here, Hyman can play both sides. Holloway brings a dimension of speed. He’s 6’1 but, as a young player, he’ll be in Edmonton if he’s in the lineup every night. I don’t want him as a 13F/14F. For me he’s fighting for one of 12 spots. If the coach tells me he wants him in the lineup on opening night, he’ll be on the team. These are the exciting decisions we’ll need to make.
Obviously, that’s a Holland summary, not a McLeod summary – geesh OP.
VGK sign Nicolas Roy….5X$3 million.
Just saw that too, Shoot, that would like nice on the Oil long term…
Is have no idea how they can get cap compliant to start the season.
Their effective cap ceiling with Weber on LTIR is $82,500,000 + $7,857,143 or $90,357,143.They are currently sitting at $88,294,643 with 20 players under contract including two on IR who I assume will be ready to start the season so they have about $2M to sign their remaining RFA to start the season with a 21 or 22 man roster.
They should be fine – or did I miss something?
Don’t they have to be cap compliant on opening night and can only then access LTIR?
No, they are in the same position as Edmonton with Klefbom and Smith.
Just like the Oilers, they will use off-season LTIR to become cap compliant as they don’t need to be cap compliant prior to making their LTIR placement.
The issue is they are almost $6MM over with an 18 player roster given Brossoit and a few others are on regular IR (and I’m not sure they will be active for the season).
I think they may be placing Lehner on LTIR to start the season as well which will kick their can down the road a bit…
I didn’t realize Holland was on Oilers Now – I will listen shortly.
No surprise here – I’d be shocked if this drags in to the week or two before camp:
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
·
47m
Oilers GM Ken Holland just said on “Oilers Now” he fully expects RFA Ryan McLeod at training camp…mentioned either on a 1-year or 2-year deal.
McLeod doesn’t have ARB rights.
He is an important player for the
@EdmontonOilers
to continue to develop.
Boston has been busy today, but something now has to give. They just inked Zacha to a one year $3.5 million deal. They’d traded with the Devils last month for his signing rights.
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/bruins/bruins-sign-pavel-zacha-one-year-35-million-contract-avoid-arbitration
With Zacha, they have 24 on the roster, but are $2.2 million over the cap.
They have a number of high ticket players not expected to be back until well into the season. Although they’d likely prefer a move to get under the cap sooner, they would have the flex to start the season with 21 players on the roster to go under the cap, move some of the injured players to LTIR and then bring up a few players to run a 23 man roster.
Flames have improved their top 4 which could be dangerous considering the Oilers top 4 is a work in progress. They are also giving out contracts like the Oilers did after Pronger left which I believe will come back to haunt them. Huberdeau is a great player but he had a career outlier and got paid. Same with Mangiapane and I expect the same with Weegar. Treliving is so scared someone else will leave he is spending money like a teenage Oil rig worker.
Flames lost two (2) 100+ pt players and replaced them with one (1) 100+ pt player. How is this an improvement?
I believe that top 4 refers to their defence.
Just wait until they trade Lucic only to sign Kadri to an $8 x 8 year contract.
With Turtlechuk and the Cherry Picker gone the games have to get better or so I delude myself.
Hart Levine doing a segment on the Oilers Cap Situation on the other station today; I think they said in the 1:15 – 1:30 slot
And Ken Holland at 1:05
As the Oilers currently stand right now, there are only 2 players earmarked to be on the opening 23 (or less) player roster, Janmark and Campbell, that were not in the Oilers organization last season and playing at least some games with the big club. Holland may still have a few more moves to make by puck drop on October 12, but right now, this is trending to be the most stable roster from one year to the next in what seems like a very long time. Even if Puljujarvi or Foegele are dealt, the Oilers would still have 13 of their top 14 scorers returning from last season.
While some may view that Holland has not upgraded the roster enough to take the next step, there can be a substantial value to team play to have that kind of stability. And on average amongst those players, many are at an age where improvement is expected (never guaranteed) and the older players wouldn’t be expected to decline this coming season (also never guaranteed).
And in net, Skinner has experience playing behind this team and also in Bakersfield playing with a Woodcroft coached team, so the play in front of him should be familiar. Can Campbell quickly adjust to be able to read the play with the Oilers? That may be one of the most important questions that the answer to will be a big determinant in how the season goes.
I have posted a few times that just “keeping the team together” is a clear off-season win for the upper echelon teams given the $1MM increases to the cap we’ve seen (and will have next season).
Remember when Holland said “I can’t bring everyone back” – well, there is likely still one move for a player out but, for the most part, he has and likely provided more stability in net. That’s a win.
As far as the Pacific – Colorado and the flames get demonstrably worse.
The Avs is easy – downgraded goalie, lost two top six players (Burakovsky and Kadri, for now) and that’s not even taking in to account crazy contract bets on Nichuskin, Georgiev and Larsson – my goodness.
The flames will be a good team again. Treliving did a very good job given the hand he was dealt this off-season.
At the same time, in my opinion, Gaudreau + Tkachuk > Huburdeau and Weegar. I know that “are not done” but we don’t know anything material is coming and that’s where we are today.
Lets not forget how ridiculous Gaudrea/Lindhom/Tkachuk was at 5 on 5 -the were BY FAR the most dominant 5 on 5 trio in the NHL.
Now, one can argue Huburdeau vs. Gaudreau – I can make an argument that either is better but Tkachuk was a 40G/100P plus player and, I’m sorry, Weegar is solid but he’s not there.
Lets also not forget that, while Huburdeau racked up alot of points, he did feast on the PP. Now that’s important and not to be discounted by Gaudrea/Takchuk were massive at 5 on 5 and the flames may have trouble scoring at 5 on 5.
As far as teams in the league, well, The Athletic had a piece the other day re: teams improvement in the off-season and NYR, COL, TBL (the three other finalists) were at the bottom, all with negative marks.
I think the Oilers were 11th, with positive marks.
Keeping the band together is a massive win for good teams.
To me if Weegar is for real, the numbers weren’t all him being pumped by Ekblad, it is possible the flames are better with H and W than G and T
Weegar seems similar to Tanev. They quietly, heavily influence games. The Canucks really declined after Tanev left
Tanev is always hurt. But if Weegar is the goods and meshes with a partner, and Tanev is healthy, that’s a strong top 4 D that can control game flow. That’s what wins. Really strong D impact the game more. We once had a CFP that could do it all on his own
I have little doubt that Weegar will help and make them better – he is a good top 4 d-man (like Tanev is).
The flames have seen a crushing blow to their 5 on 5 offence. Losing Tkachuk off the best 5 on 5 line in hockey with only internal replacement and then the drop from Gaudreau to Huburdeau (as it relates to 5 on 5 production – it was 22 points this past season).
For me, the Weegar effect will not be near enough to make up that Delta.
Important to remember the Flames are likely not done adding at forward.
Apparently they are in advanced stages of negotiations on a Weegar extension so once that’s done, I’m sure Treleving will turn his attention to filling out the top 6.
He must know what the likely status of Monahan will be and that will guide his next move.
Its also likely Mangiapane, who often played 3rd line minutes, will get a bump up.
They could come out of this a much improved team if he plays this right.
The constant bleating that Colorado is a much diminished team based on Dom’s premature model (considering the offseason isn’t over and in season moves are a Colorado modus operandi) misrepresents what Dom’s model actually indicated.
The model dinged Colorado 2.7 wins.
OMG…THATS TERRIBLE!!!
Oh wait…Colorado posted 116 points last season (and coasted the last 10 games) so the model predicts they will finish with ONLY 111-112 points next season.
Is this the season Joe Sakic gets fired?
It’s not based primarily on Dom’s model, HH.
It’s clear and obvious to anyone who’s not lying to themselves that the Avalanche are a much diminished team.
Further, someone saying the model indicates the Avalanche are a much diminished team is in no way a misrepresentation of the model, given it predicts the Avs to have lost 2.7 wins since they finished playing hockey.
Road to Nowhere: it’s a little ditty about how there’s no order and no plan and no scheme to life and death and it doesn’t mean anything, but it’s all right.
So go out and enjoy your day 🙂
Mari Lonnberg doing more great work translating some Jesse quotes in a piece from Finland:
”…There has been writings about me for many years now. Sometimes it has gone better and sometimes worse. This whole time I have grown as a person and done my own thing, that is playing hockey and focusing on everyday life…”
”…I try to get the best out of me and at the same time enjoy the work. Yes there will always be journalists and fans who write about things. I just try to take care of myself…”
About the next season playing with the Oilers: ”
The plan is to enter the season with a full, hard attitude. Aiming for a better role and the plan is to give everything to the team. I want to play in a big role…”
”…This is the goal and that’s why I have practices well all summer. Of course I want to be a good player in a good team.”
https://twitter.com/lonnbergmari/status/1556696247796465664?s=21&t=yVOffA5ebyA-w6mAAuU8SA
Jesse is going to have a great season – full season this time.
The one thing I don’t get is the verbal about a better/higher role. He played almost exclusively in the top 6 for the entirety of his 2-year contract. He started the first year in the 3rd line and was moved up shortly in to the season. He was then in the top six essentially for the rest of his contract until playoffs.
I’m any event, as of right now, there is a clear job in the top 6 to win, in fact two. His only real comp is Kailer and, depending on where we get to, Hyman.
This team will be next level if/once Jesse solidifies himself as a top 6 RW. No sure thing but I think he can do it.
Jesse’s thought process sounds sound / stable / reasonable.
I think the tumblers will finally click for Jesse when he learns/realizes that any top 9 position is a “big role” (this does not apply only to Jesse)
“The plan is to enter the season with a full, hard attitude. Aiming for a better role and the plan is to give everything to the team. I want to play in a big role…This is the goal and that’s why I have practices well all summer. Of course I want to be a good player in a good team.” < This is music.
Let’s see how it translates on the ice. JP on the 2022-23 roster is/was the right move; Not a lock, but a VERY good bet.
The 3 players I, personally, will be cheering the hardest for, Jack Campbell, Philip Broberg, Jesse Puljujarvi. (with a little left over for Kailer, McLeod and Skinner)
Maybe he would like more time on special teams. He only got 45 seconds per game on the PP with Woodcroft as coach. He may also believe he can help on the penalty kill where he got no time.
Yes, the lack of true PP time, and decreasing PP time through the season, is a good point.
For me, on the eye test, I like Jesse as a primary option on PP1 – when he doesn’t have an ankle sprain, I see him as a real force on the net front and, most importantly, the best option for puck retrieval after shots/active stick plays.
Not sure if they’ll be looking to work him in the PK at all. At this point, the PK guys seem to be:
McLeod/Ray
Nuge/Hyman
Drai/Kane/Yamamoto
Great to hear from the horses mouth that Jesse is on board with being an Oiler.
I’ve had considerable doubts about that, but it’s really good to hear.
If he doesn’t want out then I do hope Holland makes it work without moving him (the 22-man roster, with Foegele traded, accomplishes that).
In Jessie’s case, it’s great to hear it straight from the Bison’s mouth.
Yes, good to hear. I’m not sure whether or not he is really happy to be an Oiler, but at least this time he’s saying the right things publicly. That will work better for him and for the team.
Yeah, if he’s saying publicly he’s willing to play for the team and compete for ice time that’s good enough for me.
OK . Lets see it . Action is stronger than words .
More than a few on Oiler’s Twitterverse/PODville had Jesse leaving town for basically chewing gum and a puck, followed by an indictment of a lazy Holland or a GM too focused on the “record book” to understand the underlying value of Jesse.
Are we through this testing phase for Holland?
Indications from Holland seem to suggest that his roster work going forward will include trying to keep Jesse on the roster. But until opening night, it is still possible Holland will determine that Jesse is the player or one of the players that needs to be moved to be cap compliant. We know he has do something if he doesn’t want to start the season with only 21 on the roster. As Yogi Berra said, “it ain’t over till its over”. Holland’s progress report is favourable, but his report card for the off season can’t be issued till mid-October.
Thinking of the last RFA to lockup.
The biggest surprise from the 21/22 Oilers for me is Ryan McLeod.
I saw the guy a handful of times with Bakersfield and appreciated what he brought to that team. No real expectations for the big club aside from a young body in the bottom 6 who could fill a long-term role. But if you had to make me guess on who could become a ridiculous value player its this guy.
With his speed, his ability to think and play at that speed and his innate skill in putting himself in good spots I think there is room for a massive upside. I swear he passed up at least 5-7 goals last year, one of which where he actually passed a puck instead of scoring on the empty net.
He was making those plays and getting those chances in a bottom role so softer comp but still impressive offensive performance. When he got bumped up at times he could play with McD and Leon speed wise, but caught back a bit on the defensive side with the oppo skill he was up against. That’s fine, he’s a young rookie and coach sent him out on the PK where he’ll learn against that skill. You can’t teach speed and size though and he has both in spades.
I hope the man has been working on his shot/o-zone skills this off season. Watching tape on where the soft spots are and how to get to them. His quickness and edge work weren’t bad but its always something you can work on. With his straight-line speed he should be talking to McDavid actually on how to get that first few steps up a notch. He’s got the raw ingredients and a big enough hockey brain to dramatically outperform his current projection.
Not getting too giddy, he’s 3rd line to start and that is appropriate.
But he’s my dark horse “what do you mean he scored 30 goals?” player over the next few seasons.
With the loss of Gaudreau and Tkachuk, and the addition of Huberdeau and Weager, under Sutter, I see the Flames going from a great goal suppression team to an elite goal suppression team (if they weren’t already elite)
Skipped 2nd breakfast so heading to an early lunch.
Peace Out.
Go Canada!
In a game called mostly goalie, there’s may have had his Salo moment this past post season.
Someone must of forget to tell 97 and 29 they were being suppressed.
Wow that is one densely packed posting today. Nice.
In priority order for me,
1) Thank you for slotting JP at 3RW, and pairing him with “quality”. I personally believe that along with our “fire power” up front, a very strong 3rd line is a key to winning Stanely.
2) I am very pleased for you being able to witness the Bergeron victory lap. Very pleased. The victory laps of the Oilers greats all seemed to occur in foreign territory. Gretz, Mess, Coff, Andy, CoCo, pretty much all of them, even the lesser lights, MacT, Graves, Lowe, Smyth etc. I would love it if McDrai’s victory lap took place in the farthest of the northern outreaches.
3)”Edmonton as the top team in the Pacific, followed by Vegas, Los Angeles, Calgary, Vancouver and then the rest. You?” Yes. Same. With one caveat; This is pre-season on paper. In real time there is bound to be one major surprise.
4) The Oilers have endured a number of head shots / concussion resultant hits that have gone unpunished in terms of suspensions. Davidson, Draisaitl, Kassian, Benning, Bear, Ryan, etc. I hope that phenomenon is behind us.
5) Jays game. Best game since the record breaker at Fenway ( 28-5); Pitching, Small ball, base running, fielding a balk, a play at the plate, controversy.,etc…As one of the analysts said, it was one of those games were every little play was of consequence. What a joy to watch.
Lowe and Smyth both had their swan songs with the Oilers.
You’re right. Randle took things two steps to far.
I blame 2nd breakfast hankering.
Haha, that’s often the way though.
Yes, on Samourkov, I’ve been saying the main key right now is to be, and stay, healthy – he had been missing the starts and ends of seasons with regularity recently.
If he can get through camps and exhibition season healthy I would suggest he wins a roster spot on merit – simply a “better hockey player” than Niemo, Deharnais and, at his stage, Koekkoek. Yes, Niemo has “an element” but Samorukov is also physical and aggressive and can lineup you up and brings more in all areas of the game.
Health for the prospects is something to keep out eyes on. Many of our top guys have been banged up for multiple or continuing injuries early in their careers: Samorukov, Holloway, Broberg, Bourgault, Niemo, Kemp, etc. Lavoie had major knee surgery (but, for now, that’s a one off unlike the list above for multiple/continuing injuries that have caused significant time lost).
Interesting aside: Iqaluit Nunavut, actually has a road heading out of town named “ Road to Nowhere”. It goes out of town on the tundra about 10k and simply ends.
Very interesting structure on the Bergeron contract with the $2.5MM base which will hit this year’s cap and an additional $2MM in performance bonuses. The target is 10 games played so he will assuredly hit that bonus.
It keeps the cap hit down this year but, presuming he vests, given their cap structure of currently apx $1MM under the cap (with 23 players), vesting will likely create a bonus overage penalty for next year.
I’m sure they may try some day to day paper transactions to reduce their cap hit on non-game days, etc. but teams will generally have an effective cap roster over their actual roster when regular course IR injuries hit.
—–
Same thing with Kreji – I haven’t seen what his bonus is related to yet but I presume its the same.
These structures help this year but will hit the Bruins a bit next year.
Hall for JP and Barrie next offseason lol
The projected roster and lines are pretty much the one I have had on my spreadsheet for the last 3 weeks to a month. More money to Kessel and less to McLeod with Benson filling the 13th spot but other than that exactly the same.
Bourgault in Bakersfield but Kessel’s backup plan after Christmas if the wheels fall off.
It has risk because of all the youth but the players are all slotted appropriate to their strengths and skills. It keeps McLeod at centre which I think is important long term, Puljujarvi away from Draisaitl and McDavid so we can find out if he can drive his own line without constantly deferring, Bouchard & Broberg both get a veteran partner and there are goals in them there lines.
I do wonder if Holland will look for a Ryan upgrade to save a few dollars. Ryan can go south for just a $125,000 cap hit so it is possible.
Foegele, unfortunately gets the short straw.
With regard to JP, hasn’t he shown that he’s incapable of driving his own line and players like McD and Drai are better with him on their lines?
Wouldn’t it behoove Woodcroft to play him on the top six to ensure his, and the team’s maximum level of success?
No
it has been shown that he drives play wherever he is, including the top two lines. He is an elite play driver on line 3.
That’s going a little too far.
It’s true his lines have been pretty good without McDavid/Draisaitl, but definitely nothing resembling elite.
His on ice results with neither of McDavid/Draisaitl on the ice the last 2 seasons are:
306 minutes
50% SF
41% GF
55% xGF
If the goals catch up to the shots, we should all be happy. If they catch up to the xGF, then maybe we can talk about ‘elite play driver’. If the goals remain similar to what they’ve been, then Coilers2021 will have a strong argument.
Don’t think so. There is a comment above quoting Jesse wanting a bigger role this season with OP confused about how that can be since he played in the top six.
But that isn’t how Jesse sees it imo.
He is always the 3rd wheel on those lines and he doesn’t get PP1 or PK time. His time on ice was 7th amongst forwards last season and yet I think big guys like Jesse who can skate play better the more ice time they get.
On a third line with Holloway as a rookie and Nuge as the mentor I think Jesse turns this team into the modern prototype of a top nine scoring line team rather than a top six / bottom six.
If he can’t do it this will be his last season with the Oilers I would think but my gut tells me Nuge is the perfect centre for the big man.
I really hope you’re right. So long as the team wins, I don’t care where he plays.
I know that most of us think the McLeod needs to be at least on the 3rd line. He’s earned those minute.
I don’t disagree but, at the same time, the team doesn’t current have a great option at 4C if one of McLeod or Nuge is on the wing.
There is the position that 4C shouldn’t matter as they barely play and/or there may be some 11F lineups.
I think that is a valid position but I also think that having a bottom 6, including a 4th line, that can play real minutes and make an impact at 5 on 5 takes this team to true contending level. Personally I do t want to “find more minutes for 97/29” but actually the opposite. The more wins when those two play 18-20, the better.
I agree that 8-10 5 on 5 minutes for McLeod is not enough but, then again, he’s turned in to a legit PK1 option and that is 2-3 min per game. Also, his rates on the PP were the highest of all PP2 forwards and he is locked in to PP2 and I would like to see them continue to increase their role.
I’m not married to it but 4 centres strong is a solid option.
It leaves us with Jesse and Yamo as the top 6 right wings again. While that may be seen as a big weak, I think it’s good enough in the regular season, it was last season. I also have confidence both those players will continue to improve in those roles.
Not to mention that a top 6 winger could be a second deadline acquisition target after the depth d-man we know Holland will acquire – if Holland can somehow find the money in Feb.
If Foegele is moved, there is a chance for Holloway on the 4LW with McLeod – that’s a line we can get excited to see on the ice, right? Could be Janmark if he’s not up at 3LW in the 4-center structure.
Kane/McDavid/Puljujarvi
Hyman/Drai/Yamamoto
Janmark/Nuge/Rodrigues/Milano/Kessel
Holloway/McLeod/Ryan
Benson
Nurse/Bouchard
Kulak/Barrie
Broberg/Ceci
Samorukov
Campbell
Skinner
I’m not sure there is cap space to sign Milano/Kessel let alone Rodrigues – they may have to go internally and weak for the bottom six right wingers – Ryan and one of Griffith, Malone, McKegg).
Benson and Samorukov are the cheapest extras (and Sammy likely on merit in any event).
Structure those d-pairing in various ways but the way I typed it is for balance – I’m sure we’ll see plenty of Nurse/Ceci even if they aren’t always paired together.
Amazing – I posted this before reading the piece today and am just starting to go through it now.
LT’s lineup today has essentially the exact same structure.
Amazing.
The key of LT’s lineup being Kessel at $1M (and McLeod at $1.3M).
So if you get McLeod signed for more like $1M, there’s up to $1.3M for the winger add. But that likely doesn’t get one of the young guys to sign (though you never know).
If Holland can sign Johan Larsson for a couple years at $1.25M that would balance the forward lines up nicely . . They would have a reliable fourth line of (Janmark – Larsson -Ryan) each making $1.25M . Allowing balance & flexibility throughout the top nine .
Kane-Mcdavid-Yamamoto
Nuge-Leon-Hyman
Holloway-Macleod-Kessel
Janmark-Larsson-Ryan
That’s alot of money for a 5th line center, they can put McLeod at 4C and have a better version of what you’re offering with a Larsson signing.
McLeod had more points last season then Larsson has ever produced, for whatever the reason Larsson has never broken 20pts in a season in his near decade of play.
When Woodcroft goes 11F, that’s an expensive cap hit on a team with next to no cap space.
Signing Kessel for a season at a million is a bit cheaper and shorter more favorable commitment imo that allows the team to retool next off season which is exactly what you need when tinkering with a top 4 squad. Attached term to Larsson can add onto the struggle to make needed moves next offseason as small as it may seem.
Larsson had 21 points in 43 games this season across 2 teams.
He’d likely also have reached 20 the previous 2 seasons if not for them being Covid shortened, but it’s true that he hasn’t brought a lot of offense through his career.
I’d personally expect McLeod to be getting substantial time on the 3rd line, so Larsson at 4C makes sense (and he’s made a career of doing the ‘heavy lifting’).
I definitely think he’d be a useful player to add to the team, though whether that’s worth the other moves necessary is open for debate.
If you play McLeod at 3C you have Nuge on the wing which is not a strength for him. McLeod at 4C with PP2 & PK time plus bumps up to the second line from time to time give him lots of TOI and keeps everybody slotted properly.
I didn’t specify 3C 😉
I don’t disagree with your rationale on this point, but I think things will be relatively fluid in terms of where Nuge and McLeod slot in the lineup (I think both are likely to spend time at 3C, as well as elsewhere in the line up, including wing for both players).
If they are able to add a Kessel or similar, and have enough strong wingers, then Nuge on the wing is less likely for sure. We don’t know what wingers will be on the roster once the dust settles though.
I’d certainly sign Kessel over Larsson for the same money, but I do still think Larsson would be a nice (and relatively inexpensive) addition to the team.
That’s the point , they wouldn’t need to use Macleod at 4c , plus they could use Nuge as a top 6 winger .
I had heard some rumblings about Pastrnak getting traded a few months back but nothing since around Canada day. Crickets since then.
Seems odd to me that they’d want to trade him given his age and production levels. It’s almost at current Blackhawk level thinking.
Perhaps some of the wiser posters on the blog could explain Boston’s motivation on this one.
The Bruins have also signed David Krejci to a one year contract at $1 million.
It appears they are keeping the band together for one last run at the cup before doing a hard re-set next offseason.
Is that forward group the oldest in the league?
8 forwards 30+.
Has to be.
I think everything hinged on the firing of Bruce Cassidy and hiring Montgomery.
This brought back Krejci, which slowed the roll on trading out Pasta, and then brought Bergeron out of retirement which essentially put a lock on Pasta being a Bruin for at least one more season.
That’s my take. Could be wrong.
Such a shame to read about Davidson and his career. And all because one guy decided to slew foot after a play.
I always thought Davidson was a good defenseman. Nothing flashy, but dependable and didn’t make glaring mistakes. As you noted LT, you just never know what will happen with injuries.
My hope is that karma will pay Mr Tkachuk a visit in the near future. There is no shortage of players in the east who will relish putting him and his ego in check.
Can’t forget Byfuglien falling on top of his leg the season before. He was really coming into his own – before 2 injuries in quick succession. Fell behind the 8 ball, and was never really the same.
Davidson was a very intelligent player for sure.
Oilers
Kings
Flames
Nucks
Vegas
Max Pac telling everyone how Vegas has no accountability.. Eichel has some of that 2010 luck going for him lol.
Not sure how to feel about the Kings. I think it’s to McLellan’s credit he got the team to the playoffs. A couple of years ago people were looking at their prospect pool and thinking they were going to dominate (Byfield, Turcotte et al) but hasn’t really turned out that way.
If Quick, Dough Boy and Kopitar can play at a decent level they’ll be in the mix, but I have the Flames over them. Vancouver and Vegas I have a tough time getting a read on.
I don’t think the Kings are building a team of world beaters. But they’re a good team, good not great young players, good not great mid aged players and a few grey hairs. I definitely think they’re in a much better place then anyone else other then the Oilers in the division. I think they would of beaten Calgary.
Vegas, it’s a gong show behind the scenes. They’ve gutted loyalty, players only showing up for a cheque.
Calgary, had a amazing season come to about as terrible an ending as possible. How do they pick up the pieces, do they gel? Can Sutter get them to buy into his ways when they got trounced by a a team having fun.
Vancouver, Bruce is just a good coach. I think they’ll be in the mix for the dance, if they make it it’ll be over quickly for them.
I fear Byfield’s ceiling.
Lets remember what Drai was like at Byfield’s age…..
The Kings surprised me a bit by making the top 3 but suggesting all their prospects are struggling isn’t accurate…most of them are still very young.
What they demonstrated in the playoffs last season was that they needed a natural finisher in the top 6 and they acquired Kevin Fiala to fill that role.
They also had one of the worst power plays in the league last season so, if they can improve that significantly, they could be a much tougher out.
They were and are a tougher out then Calgary.
124goals in 9 season, Fiala has one 30 goal season. If Fiala is a natural finisher… Good lord.
Last 3 seasons…prorated to 82 games due to Covid
19/20 29
20/21 33
21/22 33
When you add a 30 goal scorer with xGF% of 56.21% you are a better team.
I’ve got the Pacific top 3 looking like:
1.Oilers
2.Oilers
3.Oilers
Is the confidence in Stuart Skinner warranted? Or a bit optimistic?
Goaltending will be a gamble
Goaltending is ALWAYS a gamble.
I’m not sold on Skinner yet.
Why is that?
I have a theory that new goalies sometimes overperform their actual abilities (remember Jim Carey winning the Vezina?) because teams haven’t picked them apart with scouting and video review.
I think Skinner likely has what it takes to be an NHL goaltender, but he has been inconsistent at times in the AHL and I just think we haven’t seen enough minutes yet to make a true determination.
Fair enough on the video review but to my eye Skinner doesn’t have a noticeable weak spot.
I think he is going to be one of those guys who can be a starter in the .910-.917 range that accounts for about a third of the league’s #1’s.
I am FAR from a goalie expert but, from a high level layman’s view, his rebound control is something he needs to continue to work on.
That would be a fairly big deal (even though Campbell is in the picture).
I hope you’re right.
His progression has been pretty textbook and he certainly looked solid positionally in the games he played up here last year. Is there something in his play or stats that would tell you he’s not going to be at least an effective backup?
Skinner is going to exceed expectations this season.
For his next feat of magic, Randle the Magnificent will now make it rain minuses.
“Is the Confidence in Stuart Skinner optimistic?”
Answer: No need to worry; Given that we still have Mike Smith in the organization. 🙂
He’s tracking better than Ville Husso was at the same stage (and at a younger age)……..
Noone can say for sure if Skinner how Skinner will perform in the presumed role (30-35 game back-up/1B) but the bet is reasonable and necessary.
This was a decent pedigree prospect (they traded up to get him), who has been developed along the projected and anticipated timeline and, for the most part, the player has developed in that timeline as expected.
He has done all he can to earn the opportunity he’s about to be given – he’s earned that with his development and his play in both the AHL and NHL next season.
He could prove to be 100% ready for it and give very solid 1B goaltending. He could take as step back with the extra games/pressure and prove not ready (or capable). He could even prove to be ready for more and battle for more starts – he could pop like Husso did last season (with Husso being older).
Here is hoping its option 1 or 3…..
I like this projected roster, surprised it actually comes in below the cap. If you can get another RW to play in the top 9 and be under the cap by dealing Foegele, this is the best path forward IMO. Janmark looks like Foegele cover from here, so I’d wager this is the current plan #1.
Foegele plays both wings and so does Hyman .
I really like your projected roster. I KH can make that happen, this team will outscore some of the growing pains of our young D.
Reading about Bergeron’s new contract and it was stated that half ($2.5 Million) of his contract is a “Performance Bonus” requiring him to play 10 games this year (easiest performance bonus, ever?) and there’s a mention on the Chowder site that this allows the Bruins to carry over the bonus to next year if needed.
Could this tactic help the Oilers in getting their roster under cap compliance?
I believe this is only available for players 35+ and it also doesn’t help with restructuring any current contracts. I guess if there is a UFA player that is 35+ that is good enough to warrant a similar contract structure with $1 million base maybe you can entice them. I don’t see a lot of those players as UFA. Plus it also kicks the problem down the road when cap space will still be at a premium.
It could
but then what about next year?
I guess some IR space opens up/Lucic money. But the next 3-4 are the cup window. Then maybe 3-4 after that.
lets not muddy the waters of the future year one. That’s year 6 territory.
Only if the player they sign is over 35.
I posted a thread about the Bruins cap structuring on these two contracts (Kreji as well).
As mentioned, performance bonuses can only be included in ELCs and 35 plus contracts so, no, not available to the Oilers (Kessel will NOT be a plus 35 contract – close but not quite).
Also, the Bruins currently have a bit of cap room (just over $1MM) so hey have a tiny buffer but the bonuses hit will likely put them over the cap for this season (in particular when regular IR injuries pile up as they do) and will create a cap penalty for next season.
The Oilers have a cap penalty this season of $896K (Bouch’s and McLeod’s bonuses from last year) and are looking at similar or more for next season.
Unless he suffers major injury, Bouch will assuredly hit 4 Sched A bonuses for $850K. In addition, Holloway has Sched A bonuses up to apx $450K (can’t remember the exact number) and Broberg for $850K (I believe).
Those two many or may not hit any but any performance bonuses hit will reduce the Oilers’ cap next season dollar for dollar given all-year LTIR.
If they added any additional contract with performance bonuses, it could start getting real ugly for next season.
Calgary will have an ever better defence this year, with Weegar replacing Gudbranson. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were a 100 point team again. With that being said, they had unbelievable luck in terms of games lost to injury. Their 8 top-scorers missed a combined 2 GP.
Hyman-Drai-Kessel would be a defensive nightmare, I hope they replace Barrie with Subban and pick up Milano. Let Holloway matriculate – unless he stands out in pre-season.
Is the improvement that Weegar can bring to the D enough to make up the loss of Tkachuk up front? As their roster stands those are the two biggest changes (assuming Huberdeau is basically a wash for Gaudreau). I don’t think it is, and combined with the injury luck and career years I would peg them at around 95 team as a baseline.
It would be a mistake to think Calgary is done with roster building.
They still have open cap space and could have much more depending on Monahan and perhaps Lucic.
They also have 5 top 4 D so I wouldn’t be surprised if they swing a trade for a forward.
With Bergeron signing in Boston, that eliminates one possible landing spot for Kadri so perhaps the Flames will take another swing there.
They could have 15 top 4 D, Sutter doesn’t have a chance going up against Woodcroft.
Wonder if any of those D have a glove hand Marky could borrow, seems to have lost his.
They likely aren’t but we don’t know what if any moves they make. As it stands right now, I think 95 points if they have average luck is pretty reasonable. They may make 1 move on D but I’m not sure that’s a foregone conclusion because there really isn’t one that makes sense to move. Also not sure that I would agree they have 5 top 4 D (are you calling Zadorov or Kylington a top 4?).They certainly need some F but even with a Lucic or Monahan move I’m not sure we’re talking about them bringing in a substantial F at this point when Kadri is the only one available (and by all accounts in the bag for NYI). I also don’t think any D they potentially move have enough value to bring in more than a middle 6 F.
Kylington is demonstrably a top 4D…he certainly would be on most teams.
Important to remember that Treleving has never been shy about pulling off major multi player trades so it’s difficult to say he can’t or won’t find a top 6 forward.
Treliving has made some fantastic trades over the years. He’s also running out of bullets to make trades at this point. Maybe he can pull another rabbit out of his hat. I don’t buy Kylington being a top 4 D at this point.
He has been a minus player since he turned pro except for last year. Played a lot with the best line in hockey of which two just left town. He is also on the small side at 6 ft and 180 lbs but you like Smurf D so no problem!
Why would anyone think Calgary is done if they sign Weeger to a extension they’ll trade Hanifan for a Winger.
I would personally be shocked if Calgary goes over 100 points. There is a reason two players pulled the pin. We may never know the reason but my suspicion is it is for other than money or Calgary isn’t a good place to live!
Lawson Crouse avoided arbitration inking a 5 x $4.3 million deal with Arizona.
https://arizonasports.com/story/3246053/lawson-crouse-coyotes-reportedly-agree-to-5-year-extension/
Is that the kind of deal, if the Oilers had had the cap room this season, that fans would have liked for Jesse and/or Kailer? Would either of them have signed that kind of deal if offered to them? Will Jesse’s and/or Kailer’s next season or two drive the value of their next contracts above that?
I thought Crouse was over hyped his draft season (the next Lucic) and I don’t think I’d want him on the Oilers at that price.
So he and JP are basically the same size and age (1 year different) and have similar offensive stats (JP is better) but defensively not so much (JP much better) . Crouse uses his body a bit more. If JP can hit 45 points next season I would probably sign him to this deal.
If JP hits 45 points again next season being played primarily in the top 6, does that start to narrow his offensive ceiling to a figure lower than previously thought? I’d be happy with that point total if he’s bouncing between the top 6 and the third line, but not so much if he’s a fixture in the top 6. I would still like the player and want to sign him long term, but I think you would be getting more clarity on his long term ceiling being lower than originally suspected. All that said the deal above is still pretty reasonable at that point (not sure if JP or his agent would agree though).
If JP can hit next season I would probably sign him to this deal……kidding…sort of…
Agree with your marker 45 pts….
but would more pleased with 40pts in a 3rd line role. < THAT would be huge.
Someone here showed how Tampa Bay always bridges their players once then signs long term. I think this is the best approach for JP and Yamo.
Let them play out these contracts, if you don’t have confidence to resign long term – trade.
They should have done this with Nurse too, and look at the result. (Happy Nurse is on this team, contract aside)
Agree with your point (They did bridge Nurse.)
Bridged Nurse twice, in fact.
Lawson Crouse avoided arbitration inking a 5 x $4.3 million deal with Arizona.
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!
This is a career 25-point guy who somehow managed to get above 19 goals in the highest-scoring NHL season in 25 years. He was drafted based on NHL readiness, not ceiling. His draft NHLe was far below what JP or KY’s were.
I’m guessing this contract will age like milk. No offense against the player, but an overpay is an overpay.
I don’t recall the exact numbers, but pretty sure Crouse’s draft year NHLe was better than Puljujarvi’s.
Puljujarvi did have an NHLe of 13 in his draft year vs Crouse’s 18. Laine’s NHLe was only 17.
Thanks for looking.
Might I ask where you got the numbers? They seemed low so I finally went and looked too. This site (http://nhlecalculator.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-nhle-calculator-updated-24052017.html), which I *think * LT has used in the past, gives the following draft year NHLes:
Laine 27
Crouse 24
Puljujarvi 21
Not identical, but same conclusion as yours regarding Puljujarvi/Crouse (and the site says the NHLes were updated in 2019, so these would be different than whatever was used on draft day in any case).
I recall lots of talk around the draft about how NHLe was under-valuing the SM-liiga players (Pakarinen and Is Mental being used as examples of why), since Puljujarvi and Laine looked like crap by that metric vs. the CHL kids.
I guess we can say at least that the OHL NHLe for Course really was more accurate than the ones for Laine and Puljujarvi.
I feel like Calgary was similar to Montreal in 2020/21. Now I think Sutter runs his course and the team drops off significantly. I think Vancouver rises significantly.
Oilers – best offensive capabilities will outscore everyone.
Vegas – Without injuries, they gel for a good season
Canucks – bounce back season
Kings – Likely favorite but Im thinking the youngster can not make up fo decline of the vets
Flames – Have been playing better than the sum of their parts. Sutter hockey runs out of gas
Kraken
Ducks
Sharks
If I had my druthers, I would rather sign Johan Larsson than Kessel. Move Jesse to 2RW and run a third line of Nuge-McLeod and Holloway. Then you could have a strong, dependable 4th line of Janmark-Larsson-Ryan. They could play meaningful minutes and reduce the strain on the top 6 during the regular season
RNH-McLeod-DH all play centre or left wing
are you suggesting Holloway should be expected to break into the league on his off wing?
I would also rather Larson, but we are currently playing with too many LWers
Holloway can play all three forward positions . It’s not that much of a stretch . His versatility could make him very valuable to the team .
Sure, Holloway could likely move over and play the right side but solely on the premise that any winger can play their off-side.
I watched a ton of the Condors last season and quite a bit of Wisconsin the season before I didn’t see Holloway take a single shift on right wing at evens.
His versatility is really LW/C – not RW (unless every forward has the versatility to play both wings as Holloway hasn’t done so).
Move Jesse and sign both of Kessel & Larsson .
You don’t get that much better but a whole lot older!
You could do a lot more than that if you traded both of Foegele and Puljujarvi.
Following LTs roster above (Foegele gone and Kessel in), if you also traded Puljujarvi the team would have $3.8M to replace Puljujarvi and improve on McKegg.
We can’t know who would sign for what, but adding Rodrigue and Larsson or Rodrigue and Milano (on top of Kessel already added) seems likely possible.
I expect Jesse will be moved, and I’d be OK with Kessel and Larsson. But I probably wouldn’t be OK with lack of cap flexibility at the trade deadline.
I take Kessel personally, the coach is going to run 11 forwards alot of the time. Wingers that can mesh with any of the centers, Oilers need all of them imo. Adding a veteran in Kessel would be great for the centers and all the young wings on the team trying to figure out all the nuances of being a successful top 6 wing option.
The team needs that far more then a Larsson.
McDavid, Leon, Nuge, McLeod.. They’re the deepest set in the league. All the skilled cheap wingers please.
What if Kessel goes cold, or if his skill set doesn’t fit the current lineup, or he starts dogging it (pun intended)? (He’s never been known for hustle or defensive acumen.)
Remember, you basically can’t healthy scratch him.
Yandle played probably 60 games longer than he should have, because the Flyers didn’t want to end his ironman streak with a healthy scratch.
I’m not necessarily opposed to signing Kessel, but there’s definitely some risk even to a value contract.
What if’s are always have some degree of legitimacy. But Kessel remains a good NHL hockey player.
The past 2 seasons he’s 67th in the league in forward scoring with 95 points.
He was 90th in 5v5 points with 55 points. (with Larsson, Crouse, Keller, Boyd, Dvorak, Galchenyuk, Brassard, Hayton as his most common linemates in order).
There is no good reason to think he’s ‘done’ at this stage.
No question, he’s got talent. And he would have had even better numbers last year if not snakebit with a 4.6% shooting percentage.
But what if Woody needs to send a message to the dressing room about work ethic? It seems to me that the secret to post-season success is having 100% buy-in from the whole team on checking hard. Signing Kessel might take away a little flexibility on that count.
It’s at least something to weigh against the undeniable offense he would bring.
I honestly don’t know about Kessel’s work ethic.
He’s won a couple of cups and a number of international medals, so I’d think the necessary buy in would be there. I don’t know for sure though obviously.
Work ethic?
He helped form a critical third line for a Stanley Cup winner. Back to back no less. In consideration for a Conn Smythe. He knows exactly what it takes to win.
It’s amazing how many people help propagate terrible narratives from hack Toronto media.
It wasn’t the Toronto media. This was from the New York Post:
https://nypost.com/2019/09/11/evgeni-malkin-forced-penguins-to-choose-between-him-and-phil-kessel/
I am not saying I believe it so take it for what it’s worth, but there was a rumour that Malkin didn’t think Kessel was hungry anymore.
Huh, I knew he didn’t really like his HC, thought that was the main reason he was traded…interesting, but I’m not convinced he would be a problem in the room. I think he can buy in.
Bourgault by February. 😉
This is a distinct possibility.
From a high level, I can see Holland looking for two additions in February:
1) a depth d-man (as always); and
2) a top 6 winger (or winger that can compete with Yamo/Jesse for top 6 minutes).
Given our cap situation and LTIR, there may not be money for both – it will be similar to this past season and Kulak and Brassard added so very little to the cap.
Bourgault is simply in a different category as the likes of Savoie, Tulio, Lavoie, Petrov, etc. – he is a higher tier and could arrive within the next year.
Now, even if he’s “ready” in February (which may or may not be the case), that doesn’t necessarily mean ready for a top 6 RW in the stretch drive but, of course, you never know – these things do happen and he’s got the skill-set.
As a fan of Jeff Gorton, I’m interested in how both the Rangers and Canadiens do this season. As I’ve mentioned here before, I believe Gorton was the true architect of the Bruins’ Cups and was also the architect of the Rangers’ turnaround. for some reason, teams benefit from hsi work and then let him go. Now the Canadiens are going to see what he can do. And I like what he’s done so far.
Yeah I’d agree with this. Drury seems like he’s pushing the rebuild too fast and may box himself in with some of these contracts over the next few years. This may limit the length of their window.
TH at their best.
Well, we know where we’re goin’
But we don’t know where we’ve been
And we know what we’re knowin’…..
Byrne is a lyrical genius. I will have this song in my head all day now.
As the rosters sit today, I’d have the Pacific order the exact same as LT.
I love what Ottawa had done and I expect them to make the biggest leap this season. They had terrible injury woes last year, they are very young so there will be improvement just from youth gaining experience and they made some very astute moves this summer.
I agree and think they will be fun to watch. At the very least there will be goals. Many many goals.
I wouldn’t sleep on Detroit making a big jump this season as well. Quietly getting better and better and the Seider kid is an absolute gem.
Both should be fun to watch.
I think your Pacific standings sounds about right LT… I wonder about flipping LA and Calgary, not sure if LA can repeat that performance again. Vegas may be interesting, in the way they could fold like a deck of cards, but they do have good players still.
I’ll be interested to watch the Flames-Panthers season matchup and see if Tkachuck does something dumb to raise Lucic’s eyebrow. In years previous he may have got a pass, I suspect that won’t be the case with Sutter behind the bench. Then again, Lucic could be back in Boston doing his own victory lap with Bergeron, although the rumour hasn’t happened yet.
Quick Predictions for the Pacific this year:
I think LA, Calgary and Vegas will all be interesting to watch for various reasons. For LA, can they keep the trajectory moving upwards? For Calgary, can they be as healthy as last year and have the vast majority of the team continue to contribute at career high levels? For Vegas, will Lehner be healthy enough to provide average or better tending and will Eichel be healthy enough to be a top 10 player?