This is the Edmonton Oilers 2016-17 training camp roster. This list is from six years ago, and there’s zero RHD remaining, zero goalies, two LHD (Darnell Nurse, Markus Niemelainen). Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins remain from the center list, Tyler Benson on LW, Jesse Puljujarvi on right wing. The Nuge is the longest serving in the group, the first round picks dominate, and you can see where injury (Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera) and riding one goaltender (Cam Talbot) had an impact. We’re on to 2022.
THE ATHLETIC!
Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
GOALTENDERS
Jack Campbell, 30. I like the bet. His .914 save percentage in all situations ranked him No. 17 among starters (Mike Smith was .915, No. 15) and Campbell should be able to bring calm consistency to the Edmonton net. 100 percent
Stuart Skinner, 23. This is a big deal for the organization, not many Edmonton draft picks have emerged as legit NHL options age 23. His .913 SP in the NHL over 13 games is a solid introduction, and his two most recent Bakersfield seasons tell us he turned a corner and the light went on. It happens. 90 percent
Calvin Pickard, 30. He played just three NHL games last season, but 43 solid AHL outings (.918) imply the Oilers have three goaltenders who could be used in the NHL without turning the team into the 1974-75 Washington Capitals. A good AHL starter isn’t important until it is. 10 percent.
Ryan Fanti, 22. A .929 save percentage for Minnesota-Duluth (NCHC) caused quite a stir and Ken Holland signed a rare college free agent. Aside from the impressive number on his SP, the resume is vague. That could mean we barely notice him in training camp, or that he impresses early and becomes the talk of the town. In theory, anything is possible.
Olivier Rodrigue, 22. One year from RFA status, Rodrigue has played in 24 AHL and 15 ECHL games. Skinner took the net in Bakersfield 66 times to Rodrigue’s 24, and one hopes the young goalie gets 30 starts somewhere this winter.
LEFT DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse, 27. One of the vital cogs in Edmonton’s success, Nurse delivered 9-26-35 in 71 games and a 54 percent goal share at even strength. Plays 25 minutes a night, big minutes against elites. He is mobile, rugged and plays a strong two-way game. 100 percent
Brett Kulak, 28. He scored 5-16-21 in 74 games for two teams in 2021-22. Kulak has great wheels and can defend, does not play a pronounced physical game. A solid bet by Holland, similar to the Ceci signing one year ago. 100 percent.
Philip Broberg, 21. His first major chance to make an NHL opening night roster, Broberg’s audition with Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson later in the season suggests he’ll be able to handle a third pairing role. I don’t think it will be a factor unless injuries hit, but Broberg did look good playing RH side. 90 percent
Dmitri Samorukov, 23. He’s a rugged player, waiver eligible, and played extremely well in the second half for the Bakersfield Condors. He’ll need to wow the coaches in camp, but he’s capable. 60 percent
Slater Koekkoek, 28. Veteran of 186 NHL games hasn’t played well for the Oilers and left the team in late January. Word is he’s expected to return for training camp, and if that is the case he will push for a roster spot.20 percent.
Markus Niemelainen, 24. Big defenseman is a spectacular open-ice hitter but has some coverage gaps. Size and mobility will get him a full chance, but Samorukov’s waiver eligibility hurts Niemelainen’s chances of making the team. 15 percent.
RIGHT DEFENSE
Cody Ceci, 28. He was a revelation for the Oilers last year, scoring 5-23-28 in 78 games, and partnering expertly with Nurse on the top pair. Like Nurse, he doesn’t have a duplicate on the roster and Edmonton badly needs him to be healthy and as effective as he was in 2021-22. 100 percent.
Evan Bouchard, 22. Of all the young Oilers who will play for the team this year, Bouchard’s trajectory is the strongest. He scored 12-31-43 in 81 games one year ago and settled in defensively. Absolute home run season on the way, all of his arrows are headed in a good direction. 100 percent.
Tyson Barrie, 31. His performance later in the regular season and in the playoffs was impressive. Barrie finished 7-34-41 in 73 games, and could find himself moving up the depth chart five-on-five. It’s a little uneasy as a fit now that Bouchard is ready to move up, but for this season it makes sense for Edmonton. 100 percent.
Vincent Desharnais, 26. A giant defenseman (6.07, 229) who plays with an edge and has the wingspan of an actual Condor. His PK work in the minors was impressive. He’s a long shot but not a distant bell. 40 percent.
Mike Kesselring, 22. He has slowly improved his performance and will take on a bigger load if Desharnais spends time in the NHL next season.
Phil Kemp, 23. Classic shutdown defenseman doesn’t get noticed when he’s on, but his season over season progress shows promise.
CENTER
Connor McDavid, 25. Transcendent talent, human cheat coat, shock and awe over 200 feet of ice. It isn’t just that he’ll score 120+ points next season, it’s that he can be counted on to bring his enormous talent to the game every night. A special player. 100 percent.
Leon Draisaitl, 26. The big man delivered another impact season and should be good for 50+ goals again in 2022-23. In his last three full seasons, Leon has been a lock for 100 points. 100 percent.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 29. He’ll play top-six wing much of the season but I’m placing him here to give a real sense of exceptional roster depth. He’s a terrific player, able to play in the middle or on the wing and provide quality play. He’s also a special teams maniac. Don’t let the calm demeanor fool you, he’s a warrior. 100 percent.
Ryan McLeod, 22. One of just a few early 20’s players who will get prominent minutes on this veteran roster, McLeod showed impressive ability in all three game states after Jay Woodcroft took over the coaching. Expect a spike in offense (9-12-21 in 71 games last year) and more playing time. 100 percent.
Devin Shore, 28. He’s the kind of player who will drop off in production around 30 (or before), so it becomes increasingly difficult to project him as a full-time NHL player. He scored 5-6-11 in 49 games a year ago. Remember, he was a Dave Tippett guy, we don’t know if he’s a Woodcroft guy. 70 percent.
Greg McKegg, 30. The range of possible production runs from the entire season in Bakersfield to 50 games as a depth checker in Edmonton. He scored 2-3-5 in 43 games a year ago. 50 percent.
Brad Malone, 33. He’s a solid AHL center, so Bakersfield needs him. Woodcroft has a great deal of confidence in him, so we could see him in the NHL this year. 40 percent.
Noah Philp, 23. He’s a RH center in a pool of lefties, that’s an advantage. He hasn’t play much pro at all, so there’s a Mystery Science Theatre air about him. I expect he’ll spend the entire season in Bakersfield, but he’s in the Fanti group of ‘you never know’ types. 10 percent
LEFT WING
Evander Kane, 31. Estimating his boxcars will be a challenge, but 35 goals and 60 points seems attainable for the big man. He needs to be consistent, play his rugged style and avoid suspensions. 100 percent.
Zach Hyman, 30. He posted career best totals (27-27-54 in 76 games) and then popped 11 playoff goals. An exceptionally hard worker with significant talent, he posted one of the best ‘first free-agent seasons on a long contract’ I’ve seen from an Oilers player. 100 percent.
Warren Foegele, 26. He scored well enough (12-14-26 in 82 games) for a third-line winger but the five-on-five goal differential (37-54, 46 percent) was a little shy. He’ll have plenty of competition for playing time this season but my bet is he’ll emerge as a more productive player. Young at an older position. 100 percent.
Mattias Janmark, 29. He’s a solid veteran role player, having scored 9-16-25 in 67 games one year ago. He’s a good five-on-five possession player (over 50 percent in expected goals) and should be a regular part of the penalty killing rotation. 100 percent.
Dylan Holloway, 20. Speedy winger with great passing, his goal-scoring started to arrive late in the year and AHL playoffs. He’s blocked to my eye for an NHL job unless someone gets traded before the start of the season. 40 percent.
Tyler Benson, 24. He scored 29, 1-1-2 one year ago with the Oilers and that was his NHL chance. In order to get another one, he’ll need to post strong AHL numbers as well as add to his game. This could include more goals, penalty killing, more truculence. He’ll need some luck and to reinvent himself a little. 10 percent
James Hamblin, 23. A speed merchant with enough skill to score 21 AHL goals a year ago, I can see a mid-season recall if there’s a need for zoom. 10 percent
Carter Savoie, 20. A dominant college season (23-22-45 in 39 games, plus a national championship) gets him a contract, now it’s time to prove himself in the AHL. Reports on his attention to conditioning and work habits are encouraing, and that quick release will get him more chances than the checkers. He’ll need to post handsome AHL numbers before getting a recall, when those numbers start coming in is the question.
RIGHT WING
Kailer Yamamoto, 23. He scored 20-21-41 in 81 games during the 2021-22 season, more will be expected but last year cemented his status as a bona fide NHL player. The most encouraging part of last season was his ability to remain in the lineup. 100 percent.
Jesse Puljujarvi, 24. He scored 14-22-36 in 65 games last season, and owned a 65 percent goal share at five-on-five. A highly productive player in his prime. I’m a believer in Jay Woodcroft, and he’ll see JP’s quality over a long season. 100 percent.
Derek Ryan, 35. He scored 10-12-22 in 75 games last season, the Oilers probably want him more as a fourth-line winger than a third-line player. He does the tough work (PK, mentor) and is an underrated player. 100 percent.
Xavier Bourgault, 19. I know there’s no chance he makes the opening night roster, but I’m betting he has a chance to make the opening night roster. If he can find chem with any center in training camp, suspect he hangs around later than anyone anticipated. Holland may send him out early to avoide temptation. 30 percent.
Seth Griffith, 29. He fashioned an outstanding AHL season in Bakersfield, earning his first recall to the NHL since 2017-18. I don’t see him as an NHL regular at this stage but he could play with the Oilers this season. 10 percent
Raphael Lavoie, 21. Lavoie is a smart fellow and he can see the depth chart too, so it has to be galling to discover such an inviting opportunity and find out he’s not close to the favourite to fill it. We often blame a prospect for not fulfilling his potential, but maybe this is what Lavoie is as a player. 13 AHL goals isn’t going to get him to the NHL. 5 percent.
Tyler Tullio, 20. Among the young guns heading for pro, he has the widest range of skills. I’ll be watching closely to see what kind of role he plays in Bakersfield.
Matvey Petrov, 19. Brilliant scorer who can be sent to the AHL, it might be an idea to give him a taste of what he’s up against before sending him back to junior.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy show starts at 10, and goes to 2 this afternoon on TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy at the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal at 11, Dr. Randy Gregg at 1220 to recap Riverhawks first year. Those are the confirmed guests, more to follow. We’ll preview the WJ’s and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Holloway and McLeod can win a faceoff. Play McLeod 3C, and Holloway 4C, and move Nugent-Hopkins to wing with McLeod and Puljujarvi on the 3rd lin (or on the 2nd line on LW with Draisaitl and Hyman).
Why does everyone want to play Holloway on wing?
4th line centre between two vets, Janmark and Ryan.
McLeod was 47% on faceoffs last season – of course, Nuge was MUCH worse (and seems to be getting worse in the area) but McLeod has some work to do – this should/will come with age, experience and strength.
Holloway didn’t take a single faceoff for the first 2/3 of last season. After he came back from that thigh injury (a different player vis-a-vis willingness to shoot), he took a few but not many – still used a a winger.
I’m not sure if the org sees him as a winger going forward or if this was mainly due to his thumb/wrist but I would be surprised if Holloway is used as center at the beginning.
As far as “Holloway can win a faceoff” – well, yes, at the NCAA level – we don’t know if it will take time at the NHL level – it likely will.
RNH was 53rd in scoring for NHL centres last season and won only 40% of his face offs.
I don’t know what your definition of elite is but I’m pretty sure that ain’t it.
No doubt a team with Nuge at 3C has one of the top 3rd line centers in the NHL as an overall player and McDavid/Drai/Nuge as the top 3 Cs’ is historically good and, adding McLeod at 4C, would be something.
DevilsLettuce
August 10, 2022 8:51 pm
Hyman is such a great human being, glad he’s also an amazing Edmonton Oiler.
No Germany goal but PP1 with 95 seconds in the offensive zone – Munzenburger quite active on the line – lots of lateral movement, decent distribution. 3 solid keeps (one quite good), one shot attempt, blocked.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 8:14 pm
Muzenburger on the ice for the PK goal against but no culpability – had his position in front of the net (and no attacker) and it was just an AWFUL goal on the tender.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 8:10 pm
Munzenburger’s first touch, 25 seconds in, very nice: Gets the puck down low off a battle, shields and attacker, nifty little back-hand pass for an outlet (short pass).
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 7:50 pm
Munzenburger listed in the lineup for Germany – top pair and captain.
I wonder if keeping a contagious player away from his teammates at the beginning of short and intense tournament would be something beneficial to a team?
We know society was “tougher in the 80s” so toughing it out should be primary……
19 year-old Muzenberger sniffles and sore throat > 29 year-old Kevin Lowe playing the entire playoffs with a cast on his broken wrist as well as 3 broken ribs.
Aghhh, yes, criticizing and disparaging a teenager without any information or facts – seemingly on a premise of what is “tough” and resentments towards the newer generations.
I also wasn’t aware that broken wrists and ribs were contagious and could spread and take an entire locker room out in short order.
It’s just not your generation that’s on social media all day taking selfies looking for likes the younger generation is on it as well. If it was the team keeping this Kid out for precautionary reasons you think it would of made it to social media.
If it’s true a cold kept him out of action then he sounds like a softie lightweight.
kgo
August 10, 2022 2:36 pm
Let’s play a game….what’s the most you would pay, today, to lock up Evan Bouchard to an 8 year extension. Without looking I’m assuming it would buy 4 RFA and 4 UFA years…let’s say no trade protection, no signing bonus.
8×8, below Leon. If he blows the doors off this year and the cap is jumping, 8.5.
He has his young d moments but the offense will be undeniable by years end barring catastrophe. I will pay that premium price if it means Connor gets tape to tape on the fly passes for the remainder of his contract. God knows Nurse isn’t a sure thing at that.
Ben… Spider Mabel… this team always finds a way to reach out and uplift young kids in crisis. HOF hearts. I hope they have a hockey team up there for you, Ben. You were an amazing and inspiring young man and we are richer for having met you and poorer in your absence.
The world lost the most special boy and an absolute hero last night. Ben, you were the best son we could ever hope for and you were my best bud ever. Your sisters were so lucky to have you as such a sweet brother. You fought so long and hard and beat so many odds.
I hope the Oilers do something special to honour his memory.
YYCOil
August 10, 2022 2:31 pm
Now that court case is concluded- would Jake Virtanen be a good PTO? At $1,000,000 AAV, I would prefer what Virtanen would add to this team vs. what Kessel would add.
I’ll take your word for it that he was a young overjacked up kanuckle 1st rounder trying to make a name for himself by gooning Connor. I also blame the Oilers Organization for not having a deterrent in that game for the Jake’s of the world.
Virtanen’s last full year in the NHL he played 69 games and had 18 goals and 18 assists. At 6’1 and 226 pounds if he has some hair on his arse in the play-offs that might add a dimension to the team.
Randle McMurphy
August 10, 2022 2:15 pm
Am I missing something?
The seats at the WJC Finland / Latvia. Not just sparse but seemingly completely empty.
It’s interesting how Sportsnet has been going hard on this story, and how Sportsnet stands to suffer zero, because the World Juniors are the only major hockey property for which Sportsnet lacks the TV rights. Sportsnet is so righteous!
Also, perhaps some fans are still displeased at having canceled the tourney in January just because a few players got the plague, and are waiting for next January.
Take a look at the rink board advertising.
IIHF events are normally awash in ads but there is only one sold for Tissot.
This is costing Hockey Canada millions in lost revenue.
Randle McMurphy
August 10, 2022 1:40 pm
LT. In your radio ad for the brewing company, you sometimes say, “you need the necessities, sleeping bag, lantern, and of course XXX beer.”
Just once I double dare you to slip in “camping box”…”you need your sleeping bag, your lantern, your camping box, and XXX beer” 🙂
Randle McMurphy
August 10, 2022 1:28 pm
I really like seeing JP slotted at 2RW, even though I doubt he spends much time there.
It serves as a perfect holding spot to appease those that want him to start the season at 1RW and those that want him to start the season at 3RW.
HA! 🙂 … I’ll use it in a sentence..(with a sort of Italian accent) ..”if you disagree with me, I’ll appease on you”
Randle McMurphy
August 10, 2022 1:26 pm
I like all of your probability rankings.
might take exception to this one:
Dmitri Samorukov, 23. He’s a rugged player, waiver eligible, and played extremely well in the second half for the Bakersfield Condors. He’ll need to wow the coaches in camp, but he’s capable. 60 percent
I think the waiver eligibility keeps Samorukov in Bakersfield longer than expected. I put his chances of being an NHL regular at 35 percent.
I disagree with the notion that Bouch is not a good defender. Allow me to use the hand grenade analogy that is so apt amongst blue-liners. Bouch is confident enough in his abilities to collect the grenade, put the pin back in and stick it back on his bandolier within the 5 sec timer. Sometimes it blows his hands off…but oh man he’s gonna be good
Nothing to disagree with as far as being a good defender: Bouchard is a good defender well on his way to being an Elite offensive defensemen. Today, Brett Kulak is a better defender ..imo.
Brett Kulak >> defender than Evan Bouchard
Evan Bouchard >>>>> offensive defenseman than Brett Kulak.
At this stage, of course Kulak is the better “defender” – zone entry denials, defensive zone structure, etc.
Of course, Bouch is 22 and even the elite d-men continue to improve this part of their games well in to their 20, often past the age of 25.
Ceci just “found his overall 2-way game” as he approached 26 or so. Same could be said of Kulak.
Bouch is a “smart hockey player” and, from many accounts, a “student of the game” – we will continue to develop and pick up the structural concepts, etc. – he’ll learn from mistakes (with the help of Manson), etc. He will be a very good defender in time with his frame and skill set (including brain).
My goodness, when Bouch is 26, he’s going to be something.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 1:20 pm
PTO season has kicked off (FLA signs Hammond to a PTO).
I could see Kris Russell on one for the Oilers and maybe a depth center of sorts.
I think Woodcroft and Manson are committed to the kids. The veteran will come at the trade deadline if needed.
The young D have to be ready for the playoffs, so they have to play.
Randle McMurphy
August 10, 2022 1:14 pm
Bruce McCurdy on the radio this morning, speaking of the diminished PK Subban….I am paraphrasing, “I noticed that PK is not being used very much on faceoffs; the number of faceoffs he is on the ice for is way down. I feel like this is significant in some way, but I’ll leave it to the people who are qualified to determine/define the specific significance of this”
THIS ^ is a fine example of the critical importance of taking care when discussing numbers/analytics. Bruce correctly identifies something he has observed. But then does not draw any specific conclusion or recommendation, but rather defers to the people who can offer a more detailed analytical explanation.
I know it’s small thing in isolation; But in aggregate ^ THIS is huge. Well done Bruce.
He also was behind Dougie Hamilton and Damon Severson on the depth chart, this would also have a bearing. I can’t comment on his game, other than he played against the non-elites more than 73% percent of the time. Against Elites Subban rocked the 3rd best CF% on the team behind Siegenthaler & Severson.
Severson played 80 games, Subban 77 and Hamilton played 65. Subban was third on the team in total minutes played behind Severson and Graves. My non-medical opinion is that these numbers don’t suggest that Subban’s back is done.
Last edited 1 year ago by €√¥£€^$
LMHF#1
August 10, 2022 12:53 pm
Question – have we as a group been so far from the Cup that there isn’t appreciation for what something like a $1M Kessel contract can do for you?
People still veering toward signing prospects and tweeners instead of a vet that could play just about anywhere, scores, plays only full seasons and has won 2 Stanleys. For basically nothing.
I’ve never liked Kessel as a player (just not my style) but even I can see that’s an absolute no-brainer for a team in the Oilers’ spot.
I understand what you’re saying, but I sceptical that the team will be able to sign him to this $1M contract everyone is talking about. I’m envisioning him getting a 1x $2M contract with a lower tier team with tons of cap space
But if he wants in at that price, you’d be crazy not to do it.
Randle McMurphy
August 10, 2022 12:50 pm
Repost of Swedish Poster:
News today that former Leaf, trailblazer for swedish players in the NHL and altogether legend Börje Salming has been diagnosed with ALS. Sounds like he already has breathing issues so that’s pretty sucky.
Was a hero for me as a kid, was too young to remember him in his prime but I read his autobiography as a young teenager and I really took it to heart. The true definition of someone willing to go the extra mile to succeed. Like me he was born in a small northern town in Sweden and his journey really resonated with me. Hard work and determination defined him. Great great person according to everyone who’s met him.
He will battle this no doubt but it’s one hell of a beast to battle.
Randle McMurphy
Reply to SwedishPoster
August 10, 2022 12:45 pm
Borje Salming was a trail-blazer and one tough son of b*tch.
Sounds to me like being born in a small northern town in Sweden is a lot like being a farm boy form Saskatchewan (high praise) Howe, Trottier, Federko, Getzlaff, Propp, Gillies, Wendel Clark, Dave Manson, etc, etc.
Borje had a huge following because of this. Salming did play 16 years and over 1099 games with the Leafs.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 12:31 pm
Ya, during Development Camp, Petrov mentioned he’s heading back to North Bay. Doesn’t mean they can’t (or won’t) give him a couple games in the AHL first. I doubt it though – probably a mid camp junior assignment.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 12:28 pm
Huge season for Lavoie – based on his play last year he’s almost closer to Fort Wayne than Edmonton. Of course, this tier of prospect often struggles in their first year pro and show marked improvement in their second. Here is hoping.
Let’s not forget he had major season ending knee surgery – not sure the status of his health or ability to fully train in the off-season (as opposed to rehab).
I would point to Lavoie’s struggles in his first AHL season when projecting Tulio and Savoie this year. Lavoie the much higher pedigree prospect than either of the other two.
It’s a massive jump.
Bank Shot
August 10, 2022 12:23 pm
Any truth to the rumor that the Oilers store will re-crest the number on an Oilers jersey for free when a jerky guy like Bouchard up and changes his number from 75 to 2 in the offseason? 🙂
This post will probably bring on the minuses, but I like it when guys wear more traditional numbers. It’s always annoyed me that so many Oilers wear football numbers.
When Kevin Lowe was made VP of remembering the ’80s, did he insist that all of our defensemen wear numbers in the 80s? It makes them look like they’re still in training camp. (I suspect that’s why Bouchard changed his number.)
IMO, unless you’re an obvious star from day 1 (like Gretzky/McDavid/Lindros/Crosby/Lemieux), keep your number below 30. I think Lou Lamoriello always said no numbers above 40 (with an exception for Jagr).
The odd guy might have a particular reason (Steve Heinze 57, Jaromir Jagr honouring the Czech resistance of 1968). Other than that, I’d generally like to see D-men in #2-8, forwards in #9-29, goalies in #1 or #30-39.
I like Evan Bouchard wearing #2. He could turn out to be the best jersey #2 in Oilers history:
Lee Fogolin1980-1987 Jim Ennis1988 Chris Joseph1988-1994 Bob Beers1994 Boris Mironov1995-1999 Brett Hauer2000 Igor Ulanov2000 Eric Brewer2001-2004 Matt Greene2006-2008 Aaron Johnson2010 Jim Vandermeer2011 Jeff Petry2013-2015 Andrej Sekera2016-2019 Duncan Keith2021-2022
Will Janmark be a fixture on the PK? For me, we have:
McLeod/Ryan
Nuge/Hyman
Then the Yamamoto, Drai, Janmark to back-load as the coach determines. Could add Shore there and even Foegele or Jesse if they start training them up on camp.
Gregor keeps talking about Foegele being in the PK rotation on a good Cane’s PK – 4th/5th in the rotation.
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!
August 10, 2022 12:13 pm
Love the lineup LT and can’t wait for the RE series. Really wonder you’ve got coming for McLeod and Foegele.
One thing I wouldn’t mind seeing this season is a bit more variety on PP1. I know its lethal, I know its been top 5 the last few seasons. But with the players on deck I expect the PP to run near record hot territory not top 5.
More rotations of Kane, Hyman and JP on the top or maybe less top time and more 2nd unit, perhaps depending on opponent? Tough to be too critical here but there were times last year when the PP went stale and there was near zero movement to shuffle.
Using McDavid and Drai as the default for PP1, it was down over 2G/60 with Kane on it and Kane himself was barely over 2P/60 on the PP which is brutal.
He had over 2 min per game on the PP so this was not a tiny sample.
For me, I like Jesse on PP1 – he’s very good in front of the net but, more than anything, when he isn’t battling a LBI, he’s elite at puck retrieval which is key to a PP.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 12:08 pm
I like the suggestion of 35 goals for Kane. I think that is reasonable.
I see many expect 40 plus and, while that is certainly not out of the real of reasonableness, I think it’s a bit higher for pure “expectations”. He’s never had 40 before and, of course, McDavid but this presumes full health for both, etc.
i hope to see it.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 12:04 pm
I think we might see Philp play a more prominent role in the Bake than the likes of Tulio and Savoie. A right shot center to start. A mature prospect (by age) and the kind of style that coaches often learn to trust early.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 12:03 pm
I agree with Hamblin at like 10% but I could see him as a dark horse for games given his versatility and tenacious style. He’s like a poor man’s Yamamoto.
Of course this is a fairly depth scenario.
teddyturnbuckle
August 10, 2022 11:00 am
Am I correct to say any player signed for 1,150,000 or less can have their entire salary buried in the minors if they clear waivers?
Holland expressly mentioned that other day that great thing about $750K – $850K contracts are that you can get them off the cap easily.
Of course, this extends to the figure provided but, at this point, anyone getting more than a million is likely a legit NHL player (i.e. Milano, Kessel, Subban, etc.) and not likely needed to be buried (could push someone like Shore off the roster and fully buried).
Litke 94
August 10, 2022 9:54 am
Really pleased with the roster and the depth, as it is all laid out here. It’s pretty nice to be in a situation where you can look at the NHL roster and say “likely Cup contender” but then look at the farm and count multiple promising pieces across almost every position. The Oilers haven’t had to deplete the pipeline to get to this point and that’s huge.
Probably also a lot healthier for the farm overall that this town isn’t putting all their hopes in a single prospect to emerge, which has happened in the past with so few promising options. Instead, even just on forward, all of Holloway, Schaefer, Bourgault, Petrov, and Savoie represent legitimate reason to be cautiously optimistic. Not too much pressure on any single player, and enough room for each to find their own way.
I agree with this but I think the one player they could really use hitting his potential, or coming close, is Philip Broberg.
Kulak as 2LD is a bit of a stretch – is probably fine for now but that’s a position where an upgrade would really help (and Kulak at 3LD and cover up the lineup would be fantastic).
Broberg is developing right on time (even a bit ahead of schedule) and his AHL offence was much higher than expectation.
Great arrow here – still some patience needed.
OriginalPouzar
August 10, 2022 9:45 am
If McLeod plays 3C, I see a higher than 40% chance of Malone on the roster. Woody has a spot for this guy.
With respect, I disagree, I don’t think Malone is a good option and this is based on history – there is a reason he wasn’t even on an NHL contract for a few years.
Well if it comes down to a choice of Malone & Shore. Malone > Shore.
I would think they need to address
4c because MacLeod IMO needs to be utilized higher in the line up . It could be a nice place for Holloway to begin his NHL career at 4c if he’s insulated with a couple of savy vet’s like Janmark & Ryan. Whether they consider that option. Who knows? But Godot & I know.
Not for me, I do not have Malone as a better NHL player than Shore (and this doesn’t even take in to account Malone’s primary positive impct for the org – being the captain of Bakersfield (and a material player on that team) and being a great mentor for the real prospects.
He has excelled in that role for years and its impactful and important.
Could be – I’d be a bit surprised if they have Holloway as center in the NHL in October but it could be.
winchester
August 10, 2022 9:41 am
What looks really strong is that as our prospect pool declines over the coming years due to spending draft capital, at least we have some good players emerging.
Bourgault on RW
Holloway on the left
McLeod down the middle
Broberg
Samorukov
Niemo (?)
Bouchard
Desharnais (?)
Im not listing everyone, just the solid prospect with 99% chance of holding down an important role. You could argue McLeod and Bouchard have already arrived. Thus even more critical that what we do have is managed optimally as our difference maker draft picks are going to run short for a few years.
We then hit the success point where instead of bring up 1M emerging players to help the team and stay under the cap, you switch to bringing in those 1M vets who come on short contracts to help the team and stay under the cap.
106 and 106
August 10, 2022 9:27 am
Canes solve their cap issues by putting Pacioretty on LTIR for minimum six months.
We discussed trading for an LTIR contract – and the point stands, it wouldn’t help
If a current player destined for the active roster (Nuge as an example) injured himself and wound up on LTIR for the season, it may solve the problem in the short term, but we’d be without Nuge for the season
Wait. I thought we discussed if the Oilers could do such a move and the answer was it would not help them get under the cap.
Not quite.
There has been suggestions regarding acquiring a player on LTIR to create cap space and it simply doesn’t. If the Oilers acquired Bishop or Ferland, for example, it would not create any cap space.
If Hyman blows his knee, that would create $5.1MM of cap space for the period when he is on LTIR – that would disappear if activated in-season.
The difference is (a) acquiring an LTIR player acquires the cap hit and the LTIR space – they essentially cancel each other out and (b) placing an existing roster player on LTIR only creates LTIR space (while they are hurt).
With an expected recovery time of 6 months, Pacioretty would be ready to play again in Mid February 2-3 weeks before the trade deadline. If Carolina, with Pacioretty on LTIR, maintains a roster at close to the cap, then when he is healthy again, they would have to trade some players to get cap compliant. If he comes back after the trade deadline, and they haven’t shed cap, they could be in a situation like Las Vegas was last year at the deadline and after. That did not go well for Las Vegas at all.
There is an off chance, Pacioretty’s recover takes a little over 8 months, which gets them to the end of the regular season, then they could do what Tampa did with Kucerov. Seems unlikely and highly risky. I would think Carolina would have rather had Pacioretty not injure himself in training and have him playing and on their roster all season.
Agree with everything here and, would note, since the Kucherov “incident”, the league has expressed further diligence with respect to LTIR placements and if the Canes try to “extend” the LTIR placement for any material period that goes past the regular season and tries to activate for the playoffs, I’m confident the league will not sit on their hands…
How is that a joke? He’s got a torn achilles and will be out for 6 months – of course he should go on LTIR.
This is temporary relief – He’s expected back well before the season ends and, if the Knights spend that cap space, well, they will have major issues activating a top player for the stretch run when he’s presumably ready.
LMHF#1
August 10, 2022 9:27 am
LT – regarding Kane “35 goals and 60 points”
Based on his history and the likelihood he’s playing with #29 or #97, that would be a pretty big under-deliver for him. He’s right on the line of PPG as is in recent years and has never played with as elite talent as he will this season.
The discussion with Kane is whether he hits 50 goals or just misses.
I’m always going to land on ‘reasonable’ and I think some time missed due to injuries/suspensions is likely. I think 35 goals might be low, but not tragically so.
Last season he came in cold, played essentially every game available to him and put up 37 goals and 56 points. In nowhere near 82 games.
40G is the bottom measuring stick for Kane for me. The points total is less important. He needs to be scoring goals though. I’m thinking he gets 51 or 52 given his linemates’ ability to create magic. He should also be on the powerplay more consistently, where he’ll be a killer in that arrangement they run.
I think that 35G is right in the realm of reasonable. I see the expectation for more “based on history” – well, history doesn’t have him at 40 or anywhere near 50 – its never happened.
Playing with McDavid is, of course, a big factor but this presumes 100% health for both McDavid and Kane and everything breaking exactly right.
Extrapolating performance in 2/5 of a season to the same over 82 games is also aggressive – sure, Kane didn’t have a camp but he also didn’t have to perform over the grind of 82 games.
I think the expectation of:
1) 35 goals is reasonable;
2) 40 goals is aggressive – I don’t “expect it” but its not unreasonable and I hope for it; and
3) 50 goals is a bit unreasonable.
I expect 35 goals and I hope for 42.
Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
YYCOil
August 10, 2022 9:27 am
Another reason Bouchard is 100% this season – Oiler’s web is showing him as #2 in 2022/23 as he has moved on from his rookie assigned #75.
What additional depth players truly increase team performance? I ask this as the Kessel and Subban rumors are out there.
Does a player who knows the game but are in their sunset years bring more value than a emerging youngster?
If you do pick up a Corey Perry type of player, why not run a youngster 40 games, gaining development time, and save the vet for the playoffs?
winchester
August 10, 2022 9:13 am
That 2016/17 roster is pretty good. Losing Sekera, Klefbom, Larson over a relatively short period for no assets back was a substantial loss to overcome on the back end.
106 and 106
August 10, 2022 9:12 am
I know there’s no chance he makes the opening night roster, but I’m betting he has a chance to make the opening night roster.
For the guys that have performance bonuses (Holloway and Broberg) and there being a cap benefit to them being on the opening roster submission, there is the ability to have them on the opening roster and then assign them before game 1.
Broberg is almost assuredly “on the team” but Holloway could be on the opening submission and then assigned to the Condors – this would keep his cap hit at $925K when called up (as opposed to apx $1.4M if not on the opening).
This applies to Bourgault as well but I believe his bonuses are for under $100K.
Bouch as well but, of course, he’s on the team.
Waivers is a different story but, frankly, the only player to really worry about here is Samorukov – if they waive any of Ryan, Benson, Shore, etc., there really isn’t a concern.
Samorukov likely makes the 7D on merit in any event.
This Godot doesn’t want to wait. Hyman, Draisaitl, Bourgault.
Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR
August 10, 2022 9:02 am
The thing that jumps off the page for me is the age of the prominent players on this depth chart. Holland has done a great job turning this roster over from 1 year deals for veterans to prospects competing for jobs. It was a great plan to bridge the gap, and he implemented it right from day one, and the team is ready to reap the rewards.
Shore will get a full shot in training camp and preseason, it’s unusual but Woodcroft would have been more familiar with Malone. Shore isn’t a strong NHL player but has utility. The one issue for him is that he’s on the razor’s edge at his best, and the aging curve that caught Malone will get Shore, too.
Yeah, returning to Brynäs on a long contract, will be one of the if not the best paid player in the league. Which is still about half of what he’d get in the NHL but I guess that paycheck combined with being close to family and much much much less travel sealed the deal.
New for The Athletic: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
Lowetide: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? – The Athletic
At Centre! With Holloway on his left flank.
Three outscoring lines at 5×5, please and thank you.
Holloway-Nuge-Kessel
Please and thanks.
Holloway and McLeod can win a faceoff. Play McLeod 3C, and Holloway 4C, and move Nugent-Hopkins to wing with McLeod and Puljujarvi on the 3rd lin (or on the 2nd line on LW with Draisaitl and Hyman).
Why does everyone want to play Holloway on wing?
4th line centre between two vets, Janmark and Ryan.
McLeod was 47% on faceoffs last season – of course, Nuge was MUCH worse (and seems to be getting worse in the area) but McLeod has some work to do – this should/will come with age, experience and strength.
Holloway didn’t take a single faceoff for the first 2/3 of last season. After he came back from that thigh injury (a different player vis-a-vis willingness to shoot), he took a few but not many – still used a a winger.
I’m not sure if the org sees him as a winger going forward or if this was mainly due to his thumb/wrist but I would be surprised if Holloway is used as center at the beginning.
As far as “Holloway can win a faceoff” – well, yes, at the NCAA level – we don’t know if it will take time at the NHL level – it likely will.
Elite Rover.
PP Witch, PK Savant, 2nd line in OT, and where ever the heck you need him.
That’s how he will be deployed.
As to where you would slot him on paper. A team with RNH at 3C is probably a true contender.
Not elite.
Adequate.
Of course…
Thanks for the jinx by the way, he’s bound to have a stellar season now.
RNH was 53rd in scoring for NHL centres last season and won only 40% of his face offs.
I don’t know what your definition of elite is but I’m pretty sure that ain’t it.
Pretty sure the definition of elite is just a picture of Broganity Rafferty.
Rutger McGroarty.
There are 32 teams in the league, so 53rd in scoring would be above the mediocre 2nd / elite 3rd center threshold at 64th.
Straight point scoring aside, I would imagine very few teams, if any, have a player as impactful to a game of hockey as Nuge playing 3rd line center.
No doubt a team with Nuge at 3C has one of the top 3rd line centers in the NHL as an overall player and McDavid/Drai/Nuge as the top 3 Cs’ is historically good and, adding McLeod at 4C, would be something.
Hyman is such a great human being, glad he’s also an amazing Edmonton Oiler.
The guy doesn’t get enough credit for what he brings to the team and the city.
Munzenburger quarterbacking PP1.
No Germany goal but PP1 with 95 seconds in the offensive zone – Munzenburger quite active on the line – lots of lateral movement, decent distribution. 3 solid keeps (one quite good), one shot attempt, blocked.
Muzenburger on the ice for the PK goal against but no culpability – had his position in front of the net (and no attacker) and it was just an AWFUL goal on the tender.
Munzenburger’s first touch, 25 seconds in, very nice: Gets the puck down low off a battle, shields and attacker, nifty little back-hand pass for an outlet (short pass).
Munzenburger listed in the lineup for Germany – top pair and captain.
http://onhockey.tv/
Thought I’d put it in its own post because its popped up a few times and places including in this thread.
The 9-game threshold doesn’t mean anything for Bourgault as his contract is not subject to another slide this year.
The first year of his ELC will best no matter if he plays 9, 11, zero, 1 or 82 NHL games this season.
The “40 games on the roster” threshold to vest a year towards UFA status is in play.
Good info. Thanks.
Once again I am reaching out for help
anyone know where I can stream the world juniors.
i am in Australia and can’t access tsn or nhl network
I wonder if keeping a contagious player away from his teammates at the beginning of short and intense tournament would be something beneficial to a team?
We know society was “tougher in the 80s” so toughing it out should be primary……
19 year-old Muzenberger sniffles and sore throat > 29 year-old Kevin Lowe playing the entire playoffs with a cast on his broken wrist as well as 3 broken ribs.
Aghhh, yes, criticizing and disparaging a teenager without any information or facts – seemingly on a premise of what is “tough” and resentments towards the newer generations.
I also wasn’t aware that broken wrists and ribs were contagious and could spread and take an entire locker room out in short order.
It’s just not your generation that’s on social media all day taking selfies looking for likes the younger generation is on it as well. If it was the team keeping this Kid out for precautionary reasons you think it would of made it to social media.
Ummm, ok
Any news as to why Munzenberger wasn’t playing yesterday?
Not sure how credible this Twitter source is, but it suggests he was out with a cold and might be good to go for tonight’s match.
If it’s true a cold kept him out of action then he sounds like a softie lightweight.
Let’s play a game….what’s the most you would pay, today, to lock up Evan Bouchard to an 8 year extension. Without looking I’m assuming it would buy 4 RFA and 4 UFA years…let’s say no trade protection, no signing bonus.
My max would be $6M
8×8, below Leon. If he blows the doors off this year and the cap is jumping, 8.5.
He has his young d moments but the offense will be undeniable by years end barring catastrophe. I will pay that premium price if it means Connor gets tape to tape on the fly passes for the remainder of his contract. God knows Nurse isn’t a sure thing at that.
You think he’s worth just south of Makar. Ok. I don’t think so.I like 8×6.
Ben Stelter…..I’m going to get choked up…
God’s Speed Young Ben.
Ben… Spider Mabel… this team always finds a way to reach out and uplift young kids in crisis. HOF hearts. I hope they have a hockey team up there for you, Ben. You were an amazing and inspiring young man and we are richer for having met you and poorer in your absence.
Crushing news. Absolutely unfair.
The world lost the most special boy and an absolute hero last night. Ben, you were the best son we could ever hope for and you were my best bud ever. Your sisters were so lucky to have you as such a sweet brother. You fought so long and hard and beat so many odds.
https://twitter.com/m_dan25/status/1557461755940417536?s=20&t=fNGMdVgMug0NpUTbKPy_6A
💔
A fantastic video here:
https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/1507519530393759746?s=21
That little man had such an impact. Such a presence. It hurts so bad, and it’s not fair. His bravery will be remembered.
I hope the Oilers do something special to honour his memory.
Now that court case is concluded- would Jake Virtanen be a good PTO? At $1,000,000 AAV, I would prefer what Virtanen would add to this team vs. what Kessel would add.
Virtanen is worse in every possible way than Kassian.
Besides the obvious. Why?
If you had seen his antics at the young stars you would know why!
I’ll take your word for it that he was a young overjacked up kanuckle 1st rounder trying to make a name for himself by gooning Connor. I also blame the Oilers Organization for not having a deterrent in that game for the Jake’s of the world.
Virtanen’s last full year in the NHL he played 69 games and had 18 goals and 18 assists. At 6’1 and 226 pounds if he has some hair on his arse in the play-offs that might add a dimension to the team.
Am I missing something?
The seats at the WJC Finland / Latvia. Not just sparse but seemingly completely empty.
SUP with that?
OP are you attending games this week?
It is August in Edmonton, not Christmas.
Weather, outdoor vacations, etc.
But completely empty? Makes no sense. Something’s up.
The shine is off the brand.
Social Media and Mainstream Media pissing and shitting continuously justified and unjustified will do that.
It’s interesting how Sportsnet has been going hard on this story, and how Sportsnet stands to suffer zero, because the World Juniors are the only major hockey property for which Sportsnet lacks the TV rights. Sportsnet is so righteous!
Also, perhaps some fans are still displeased at having canceled the tourney in January just because a few players got the plague, and are waiting for next January.
Its all about virtue signalling for Sportsnet it’s the new gold all they’re doing is mimicking ESPN.
Rob Williams
@RobTheHockeyGuy
Attendance numbers from the first day of the #WorldJuniors in Edmonton.
The three games combined for just 1,635 fans:
Czechia-Slovakia: 430
Latvia-Finland: 376
USA-Germany: 829
Thank you Durag. Crazy low numbers.
Nope – heading up for the Medal Round games – next Wed to Sat.
Take a look at the rink board advertising.
IIHF events are normally awash in ads but there is only one sold for Tissot.
This is costing Hockey Canada millions in lost revenue.
LT. In your radio ad for the brewing company, you sometimes say, “you need the necessities, sleeping bag, lantern, and of course XXX beer.”
Just once I double dare you to slip in “camping box”…”you need your sleeping bag, your lantern, your camping box, and XXX beer” 🙂
I really like seeing JP slotted at 2RW, even though I doubt he spends much time there.
It serves as a perfect holding spot to appease those that want him to start the season at 1RW and those that want him to start the season at 3RW.
I don’t think appease means what you think it means.
HA! 🙂 … I’ll use it in a sentence..(with a sort of Italian accent) ..”if you disagree with me, I’ll appease on you”
I like all of your probability rankings.
might take exception to this one:
Dmitri Samorukov, 23. He’s a rugged player, waiver eligible, and played extremely well in the second half for the Bakersfield Condors. He’ll need to wow the coaches in camp, but he’s capable. 60 percent
I think the waiver eligibility keeps Samorukov in Bakersfield longer than expected. I put his chances of being an NHL regular at 35 percent.
Randle he needs to clear waivers to GO to Bako…
AHHHHH! Thank You Shane!
Like I said, I put the chances of his being a regular NHL’er at 80.35 percent 🙂
Randle’ Random Thought O’ the Day:
Brett Kulak >> defender than Evan Bouchard.
I disagree with the notion that Bouch is not a good defender. Allow me to use the hand grenade analogy that is so apt amongst blue-liners. Bouch is confident enough in his abilities to collect the grenade, put the pin back in and stick it back on his bandolier within the 5 sec timer. Sometimes it blows his hands off…but oh man he’s gonna be good
Nothing to disagree with as far as being a good defender: Bouchard is a good defender well on his way to being an Elite offensive defensemen. Today, Brett Kulak is a better defender ..imo.
Brett Kulak >> defender than Evan Bouchard
Evan Bouchard >>>>> offensive defenseman than Brett Kulak.
At this stage, of course Kulak is the better “defender” – zone entry denials, defensive zone structure, etc.
Of course, Bouch is 22 and even the elite d-men continue to improve this part of their games well in to their 20, often past the age of 25.
Ceci just “found his overall 2-way game” as he approached 26 or so. Same could be said of Kulak.
Bouch is a “smart hockey player” and, from many accounts, a “student of the game” – we will continue to develop and pick up the structural concepts, etc. – he’ll learn from mistakes (with the help of Manson), etc. He will be a very good defender in time with his frame and skill set (including brain).
My goodness, when Bouch is 26, he’s going to be something.
PTO season has kicked off (FLA signs Hammond to a PTO).
I could see Kris Russell on one for the Oilers and maybe a depth center of sorts.
I think Woodcroft and Manson are committed to the kids. The veteran will come at the trade deadline if needed.
The young D have to be ready for the playoffs, so they have to play.
Bruce McCurdy on the radio this morning, speaking of the diminished PK Subban….I am paraphrasing, “I noticed that PK is not being used very much on faceoffs; the number of faceoffs he is on the ice for is way down. I feel like this is significant in some way, but I’ll leave it to the people who are qualified to determine/define the specific significance of this”
THIS ^ is a fine example of the critical importance of taking care when discussing numbers/analytics. Bruce correctly identifies something he has observed. But then does not draw any specific conclusion or recommendation, but rather defers to the people who can offer a more detailed analytical explanation.
I know it’s small thing in isolation; But in aggregate ^ THIS is huge. Well done Bruce.
#Restrain
PKs back is done. Everyone bends over before puck drop 😉
HA! 🙂
He also was behind Dougie Hamilton and Damon Severson on the depth chart, this would also have a bearing. I can’t comment on his game, other than he played against the non-elites more than 73% percent of the time. Against Elites Subban rocked the 3rd best CF% on the team behind Siegenthaler & Severson.
Severson played 80 games, Subban 77 and Hamilton played 65. Subban was third on the team in total minutes played behind Severson and Graves. My non-medical opinion is that these numbers don’t suggest that Subban’s back is done.
Question – have we as a group been so far from the Cup that there isn’t appreciation for what something like a $1M Kessel contract can do for you?
People still veering toward signing prospects and tweeners instead of a vet that could play just about anywhere, scores, plays only full seasons and has won 2 Stanleys. For basically nothing.
I’ve never liked Kessel as a player (just not my style) but even I can see that’s an absolute no-brainer for a team in the Oilers’ spot.
Agreed. Kessel at ~1M would be a fantastic addition.
I understand what you’re saying, but I sceptical that the team will be able to sign him to this $1M contract everyone is talking about. I’m envisioning him getting a 1x $2M contract with a lower tier team with tons of cap space
But if he wants in at that price, you’d be crazy not to do it.
Repost of Swedish Poster:
News today that former Leaf, trailblazer for swedish players in the NHL and altogether legend Börje Salming has been diagnosed with ALS. Sounds like he already has breathing issues so that’s pretty sucky.
Was a hero for me as a kid, was too young to remember him in his prime but I read his autobiography as a young teenager and I really took it to heart. The true definition of someone willing to go the extra mile to succeed. Like me he was born in a small northern town in Sweden and his journey really resonated with me. Hard work and determination defined him. Great great person according to everyone who’s met him.
He will battle this no doubt but it’s one hell of a beast to battle.
Randle McMurphy
Reply to SwedishPoster
August 10, 2022 12:45 pm
Borje Salming was a trail-blazer and one tough son of b*tch.
Sounds to me like being born in a small northern town in Sweden is a lot like being a farm boy form Saskatchewan (high praise) Howe, Trottier, Federko, Getzlaff, Propp, Gillies, Wendel Clark, Dave Manson, etc, etc.
Best wishes to Borje. He was a joy to watch.
I’ve heard somewhere that Borje Salming was a role model/hero for Niklas Lidstrom.
Borje Salming makes my top ten list of hockey figures who faced and overcame extreme adversity and went on to flourish.
One of my favourites from my youth before the Oilers were in the NHL. Lots of great memories of Saturday nights watching him play.
The only reason I liked the leafs was due to Borje. He was never treated properly by the leafs
Borje had a huge following because of this. Salming did play 16 years and over 1099 games with the Leafs.
Ya, during Development Camp, Petrov mentioned he’s heading back to North Bay. Doesn’t mean they can’t (or won’t) give him a couple games in the AHL first. I doubt it though – probably a mid camp junior assignment.
Huge season for Lavoie – based on his play last year he’s almost closer to Fort Wayne than Edmonton. Of course, this tier of prospect often struggles in their first year pro and show marked improvement in their second. Here is hoping.
Let’s not forget he had major season ending knee surgery – not sure the status of his health or ability to fully train in the off-season (as opposed to rehab).
I would point to Lavoie’s struggles in his first AHL season when projecting Tulio and Savoie this year. Lavoie the much higher pedigree prospect than either of the other two.
It’s a massive jump.
Any truth to the rumor that the Oilers store will re-crest the number on an Oilers jersey for free when a jerky guy like Bouchard up and changes his number from 75 to 2 in the offseason? 🙂
This post will probably bring on the minuses, but I like it when guys wear more traditional numbers. It’s always annoyed me that so many Oilers wear football numbers.
When Kevin Lowe was made VP of remembering the ’80s, did he insist that all of our defensemen wear numbers in the 80s? It makes them look like they’re still in training camp. (I suspect that’s why Bouchard changed his number.)
IMO, unless you’re an obvious star from day 1 (like Gretzky/McDavid/Lindros/Crosby/Lemieux), keep your number below 30. I think Lou Lamoriello always said no numbers above 40 (with an exception for Jagr).
The odd guy might have a particular reason (Steve Heinze 57, Jaromir Jagr honouring the Czech resistance of 1968). Other than that, I’d generally like to see D-men in #2-8, forwards in #9-29, goalies in #1 or #30-39.
I like Evan Bouchard wearing #2. He could turn out to be the best jersey #2 in Oilers history:
Lee Fogolin 1980-1987
Jim Ennis 1988
Chris Joseph 1988-1994
Bob Beers 1994
Boris Mironov 1995-1999
Brett Hauer 2000
Igor Ulanov 2000
Eric Brewer 2001-2004
Matt Greene 2006-2008
Aaron Johnson 2010
Jim Vandermeer 2011
Jeff Petry 2013-2015
Andrej Sekera 2016-2019
Duncan Keith 2021-2022
Best to ever wear #22
https://twitter.com/i/status/1517891559445860353
We like what we like….nothing wrong with that LG
+++
Will Janmark be a fixture on the PK? For me, we have:
McLeod/Ryan
Nuge/Hyman
Then the Yamamoto, Drai, Janmark to back-load as the coach determines. Could add Shore there and even Foegele or Jesse if they start training them up on camp.
Gregor keeps talking about Foegele being in the PK rotation on a good Cane’s PK – 4th/5th in the rotation.
Love the lineup LT and can’t wait for the RE series. Really wonder you’ve got coming for McLeod and Foegele.
One thing I wouldn’t mind seeing this season is a bit more variety on PP1. I know its lethal, I know its been top 5 the last few seasons. But with the players on deck I expect the PP to run near record hot territory not top 5.
More rotations of Kane, Hyman and JP on the top or maybe less top time and more 2nd unit, perhaps depending on opponent? Tough to be too critical here but there were times last year when the PP went stale and there was near zero movement to shuffle.
Kane was AWFUL on the PP for the Oilers.
Using McDavid and Drai as the default for PP1, it was down over 2G/60 with Kane on it and Kane himself was barely over 2P/60 on the PP which is brutal.
He had over 2 min per game on the PP so this was not a tiny sample.
For me, I like Jesse on PP1 – he’s very good in front of the net but, more than anything, when he isn’t battling a LBI, he’s elite at puck retrieval which is key to a PP.
I like the suggestion of 35 goals for Kane. I think that is reasonable.
I see many expect 40 plus and, while that is certainly not out of the real of reasonableness, I think it’s a bit higher for pure “expectations”. He’s never had 40 before and, of course, McDavid but this presumes full health for both, etc.
i hope to see it.
I think we might see Philp play a more prominent role in the Bake than the likes of Tulio and Savoie. A right shot center to start. A mature prospect (by age) and the kind of style that coaches often learn to trust early.
I agree with Hamblin at like 10% but I could see him as a dark horse for games given his versatility and tenacious style. He’s like a poor man’s Yamamoto.
Of course this is a fairly depth scenario.
Am I correct to say any player signed for 1,150,000 or less can have their entire salary buried in the minors if they clear waivers?
1,125,000
https://www.capfriendly.com/faq
Scroll down to buried contracts
Yup.
Holland expressly mentioned that other day that great thing about $750K – $850K contracts are that you can get them off the cap easily.
Of course, this extends to the figure provided but, at this point, anyone getting more than a million is likely a legit NHL player (i.e. Milano, Kessel, Subban, etc.) and not likely needed to be buried (could push someone like Shore off the roster and fully buried).
Really pleased with the roster and the depth, as it is all laid out here. It’s pretty nice to be in a situation where you can look at the NHL roster and say “likely Cup contender” but then look at the farm and count multiple promising pieces across almost every position. The Oilers haven’t had to deplete the pipeline to get to this point and that’s huge.
Probably also a lot healthier for the farm overall that this town isn’t putting all their hopes in a single prospect to emerge, which has happened in the past with so few promising options. Instead, even just on forward, all of Holloway, Schaefer, Bourgault, Petrov, and Savoie represent legitimate reason to be cautiously optimistic. Not too much pressure on any single player, and enough room for each to find their own way.
I agree with this but I think the one player they could really use hitting his potential, or coming close, is Philip Broberg.
Kulak as 2LD is a bit of a stretch – is probably fine for now but that’s a position where an upgrade would really help (and Kulak at 3LD and cover up the lineup would be fantastic).
Broberg is developing right on time (even a bit ahead of schedule) and his AHL offence was much higher than expectation.
Great arrow here – still some patience needed.
If McLeod plays 3C, I see a higher than 40% chance of Malone on the roster. Woody has a spot for this guy.
I see Malone as a good option.
A veteran fourth line with Janmark , Malone & Ryan might be very serviceable .
With respect, I disagree, I don’t think Malone is a good option and this is based on history – there is a reason he wasn’t even on an NHL contract for a few years.
Well if it comes down to a choice of Malone & Shore. Malone > Shore.
I would think they need to address
4c because MacLeod IMO needs to be utilized higher in the line up . It could be a nice place for Holloway to begin his NHL career at 4c if he’s insulated with a couple of savy vet’s like Janmark & Ryan. Whether they consider that option. Who knows? But Godot & I know.
Not for me, I do not have Malone as a better NHL player than Shore (and this doesn’t even take in to account Malone’s primary positive impct for the org – being the captain of Bakersfield (and a material player on that team) and being a great mentor for the real prospects.
He has excelled in that role for years and its impactful and important.
Janmark, Holloway, Ryan IS the fourth line.
We will find out if this manifesting stuff into existence works.
Could be – I’d be a bit surprised if they have Holloway as center in the NHL in October but it could be.
What looks really strong is that as our prospect pool declines over the coming years due to spending draft capital, at least we have some good players emerging.
Bourgault on RW
Holloway on the left
McLeod down the middle
Broberg
Samorukov
Niemo (?)
Bouchard
Desharnais (?)
Im not listing everyone, just the solid prospect with 99% chance of holding down an important role. You could argue McLeod and Bouchard have already arrived. Thus even more critical that what we do have is managed optimally as our difference maker draft picks are going to run short for a few years.
We then hit the success point where instead of bring up 1M emerging players to help the team and stay under the cap, you switch to bringing in those 1M vets who come on short contracts to help the team and stay under the cap.
Canes solve their cap issues by putting Pacioretty on LTIR for minimum six months.
LTIR is becoming a joke.
I bet he agreed to blowing his achilles tendon for the team
Wait. I thought we discussed if the Oilers could do such a move and the answer was it would not help them get under the cap.
We discussed trading for an LTIR contract – and the point stands, it wouldn’t help
If a current player destined for the active roster (Nuge as an example) injured himself and wound up on LTIR for the season, it may solve the problem in the short term, but we’d be without Nuge for the season
Not quite.
There has been suggestions regarding acquiring a player on LTIR to create cap space and it simply doesn’t. If the Oilers acquired Bishop or Ferland, for example, it would not create any cap space.
If Hyman blows his knee, that would create $5.1MM of cap space for the period when he is on LTIR – that would disappear if activated in-season.
The difference is (a) acquiring an LTIR player acquires the cap hit and the LTIR space – they essentially cancel each other out and (b) placing an existing roster player on LTIR only creates LTIR space (while they are hurt).
With an expected recovery time of 6 months, Pacioretty would be ready to play again in Mid February 2-3 weeks before the trade deadline. If Carolina, with Pacioretty on LTIR, maintains a roster at close to the cap, then when he is healthy again, they would have to trade some players to get cap compliant. If he comes back after the trade deadline, and they haven’t shed cap, they could be in a situation like Las Vegas was last year at the deadline and after. That did not go well for Las Vegas at all.
There is an off chance, Pacioretty’s recover takes a little over 8 months, which gets them to the end of the regular season, then they could do what Tampa did with Kucerov. Seems unlikely and highly risky. I would think Carolina would have rather had Pacioretty not injure himself in training and have him playing and on their roster all season.
Agree with everything here and, would note, since the Kucherov “incident”, the league has expressed further diligence with respect to LTIR placements and if the Canes try to “extend” the LTIR placement for any material period that goes past the regular season and tries to activate for the playoffs, I’m confident the league will not sit on their hands…
How is that a joke? He’s got a torn achilles and will be out for 6 months – of course he should go on LTIR.
This is temporary relief – He’s expected back well before the season ends and, if the Knights spend that cap space, well, they will have major issues activating a top player for the stretch run when he’s presumably ready.
LT – regarding Kane “35 goals and 60 points”
Based on his history and the likelihood he’s playing with #29 or #97, that would be a pretty big under-deliver for him. He’s right on the line of PPG as is in recent years and has never played with as elite talent as he will this season.
The discussion with Kane is whether he hits 50 goals or just misses.
I’m always going to land on ‘reasonable’ and I think some time missed due to injuries/suspensions is likely. I think 35 goals might be low, but not tragically so.
Oh I know – and part of my function is to come in and point out where you’re being a slight bit too low-bar ‘reasonable’.
Out on a limb is my preferred location. Just gotta pick the right limbs.
Agreed. And in the 2nd half of the season the other Kane (Patrick) is going to steal some points away from Evander. 🙂
35 goals and 60 points seems reasonable and also very good value for 5.1M, IMO.
Keep in mind, Kane has only scored 30 goals twice. He has also never played a full 82 game season.
Last season he came in cold, played essentially every game available to him and put up 37 goals and 56 points. In nowhere near 82 games.
40G is the bottom measuring stick for Kane for me. The points total is less important. He needs to be scoring goals though. I’m thinking he gets 51 or 52 given his linemates’ ability to create magic. He should also be on the powerplay more consistently, where he’ll be a killer in that arrangement they run.
I think that 35G is right in the realm of reasonable. I see the expectation for more “based on history” – well, history doesn’t have him at 40 or anywhere near 50 – its never happened.
Playing with McDavid is, of course, a big factor but this presumes 100% health for both McDavid and Kane and everything breaking exactly right.
Extrapolating performance in 2/5 of a season to the same over 82 games is also aggressive – sure, Kane didn’t have a camp but he also didn’t have to perform over the grind of 82 games.
I think the expectation of:
1) 35 goals is reasonable;
2) 40 goals is aggressive – I don’t “expect it” but its not unreasonable and I hope for it; and
3) 50 goals is a bit unreasonable.
I expect 35 goals and I hope for 42.
Another reason Bouchard is 100% this season – Oiler’s web is showing him as #2 in 2022/23 as he has moved on from his rookie assigned #75.
Also:
Janmark gets Marchant’s #26
McKegg inherits Isbister’s #15
Pickard receives Essensa’s #30
Really?! You’re going with Essensa’s #30?
For shame!
What additional depth players truly increase team performance? I ask this as the Kessel and Subban rumors are out there.
Does a player who knows the game but are in their sunset years bring more value than a emerging youngster?
If you do pick up a Corey Perry type of player, why not run a youngster 40 games, gaining development time, and save the vet for the playoffs?
That 2016/17 roster is pretty good. Losing Sekera, Klefbom, Larson over a relatively short period for no assets back was a substantial loss to overcome on the back end.
I know there’s no chance he makes the opening night roster, but I’m betting he has a chance to make the opening night roster.
Great chuckle from this line, LT.
I think there is a 50% chance he makes the roster opening night and gets his 9 games. This sets him up nicely for a return later in the year.
What is hard to predict is waiver eligible players or bonus eligible players grabbing an opening roster spot due to these other considerations.
Holland doesn’t do this often. AHL until proven otherwise. Which prospect has had 9 games in his tenure?
I don’t think any.
9 games is no different that 11 games, 0 games or 82 games.
Bourgault’s first year is in force this year – he’s not subject to another slide.
For the guys that have performance bonuses (Holloway and Broberg) and there being a cap benefit to them being on the opening roster submission, there is the ability to have them on the opening roster and then assign them before game 1.
Broberg is almost assuredly “on the team” but Holloway could be on the opening submission and then assigned to the Condors – this would keep his cap hit at $925K when called up (as opposed to apx $1.4M if not on the opening).
This applies to Bourgault as well but I believe his bonuses are for under $100K.
Bouch as well but, of course, he’s on the team.
Waivers is a different story but, frankly, the only player to really worry about here is Samorukov – if they waive any of Ryan, Benson, Shore, etc., there really isn’t a concern.
Samorukov likely makes the 7D on merit in any event.
I am manifesting it into reality.
This Godot doesn’t want to wait. Hyman, Draisaitl, Bourgault.
The thing that jumps off the page for me is the age of the prominent players on this depth chart. Holland has done a great job turning this roster over from 1 year deals for veterans to prospects competing for jobs. It was a great plan to bridge the gap, and he implemented it right from day one, and the team is ready to reap the rewards.
We don’t have Haas and Nygard playing nightly, do we?
Riesen to Believes are my favourite posts of the summer. Thanks for doing them!
I can’t remember why it’s spelled Riesen?
I could be wrong but my presumption is:
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=36241
Homage to first-round selection Michel Riesen.
Shore dressed for zero games in the playoffs and even Brad Malone dresses and played. I would suggest info they be is NOT a Woodcroft guy.
Shore will get a full shot in training camp and preseason, it’s unusual but Woodcroft would have been more familiar with Malone. Shore isn’t a strong NHL player but has utility. The one issue for him is that he’s on the razor’s edge at his best, and the aging curve that caught Malone will get Shore, too.
I don’t disagree but Malone over Shore in the playoffs was a tell on who is “a Woodcroft guy”.
Personally, I take Shore over Malone but I’m not so sure the coach has that opinion going in to camp.
As I posted elsewhere, I wouldn’t be surprised if Malone is on the team for opening night, even in the lineup as 4C.
Elite Prospects has Johan Larsson signing in Europe.
Say it isn’t so . I’d prefer him on the roster over Kessel or Subban any day .
Phil Kessel who had 52pts last season for a million or Larsson who’s never hit 20pts once. For more money.. Yikes.
Yeah, returning to Brynäs on a long contract, will be one of the if not the best paid player in the league. Which is still about half of what he’d get in the NHL but I guess that paycheck combined with being close to family and much much much less travel sealed the deal.