Carter Savoie is both a volume shooter (3.9 shots per game last season with the Denver Pioneers of the NCAA) and a marksman (15.1 percent shooting percentage). That compares to Dylan Holloway’s final season: 3.3 shots per game and a 14.3 shooting percentage.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Finding Edmonton Oilers’ ideal skill lines for 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers have room for UFA contract or PTO. Is there a match?
- Lowetide: Oilers question marks as training camp nears
- Lowetide: Xavier Bourgault leads strong group of Oilers prospects graduating to pro hockey this fall
- Lowetide: Predicting Kailer Yamamoto’s Oilers goal total in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
SAVOIE COMPS
There aren’t many who played at 19 and delivered enough goal-scoring to be included in this group. All are NCHC save for Dylan Holloway, I think he gives us a nice recognizable perspective.
The closest comparable, and it’s damn close, is Henrik Borgstrom. A bigger man (6.03, 199) than Savoie (5.09, 192), Borgstrom is also a center-wing and has a nice range of skills. Borgstrom had a solid 2018-19 (8-10-18) in 50 games with the Florida Panthers but struggled afterward and is now trying to make it with the Washington Capitals.
Trevor Moore is another player who took some time to develop but is now enjoying a solid NHL career. His numbers from college went bizarro, as he stopped shooting the puck but they all went in the season after none of them went in at college.
None of the men listed here emerged as a pure goal scorer. Savoie may be the outlier, his shot is exceptional. He may also have to adjust his game. One final note: Adding all of the AHL rookie numbers up, and placing them in 68 game format (a full AHL season), the totals are 15-31-46. I think Savoie’s goals-assist ratio will be tighter, but that’s a reasonable expectation should he earn regular playing time. I’d also knock his shots per game in half (to two shots per game) and his shooting percentage to 10 percent. If he played in 68 games, two shots a game, and 10 percent shooting percentage, we get 14 goals.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
All hell has broken loose in the Pacific Division as the Calgary Flames have decided to fight back in a big way. Adding Nazem Kadri was a power move and maybe they’re not done yet! Your move, Oilers! Plus CFL weekend and NFL previews, and the World Juniors preview (semifinals). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
One thing to keep out for next season is can Nuge really score 1 power play goal and only shoot 7% for the season
hes a career 11.5% shooter
Good gracious, our resident troll is out in full force this off season! Pumping up the usual teams, dismissing the Oilers and changing his narrative whenever he desires.
It was the same last summer. I enjoyed his radio silence as one after one of ‘his teams’ dropped off last season, whether not making the playoffs (Nucks, Vegas) or losing to the Oilers in the playoffs (Kings, Flames). As predicted, he jumped on the Colorado train in one last desperate attempt to redeem himself. Pathetic. No integrity.
Without him the comment section would be quieter, so it’s not all negative. Plus it’s hilarious to remember all the malarkey he’s spewed over the past few years.
Speaking of which, how’s Rafferty career going HH? Any closer to that Norris trophy?
Yeah The oilers got to keep a lot of their mid season adds and now get them for the whole season.
Kane came in cold half way through the season and went almost ppg before going all Pisani with near gpg.
While I’m not thrilled about our LHD depth chart after #1 but Nurse plays 25 min a night and Kulaks advanced stats are pretty good and Broberg may push him down later this season.
not having Koskinen is a huge plus
I had high hopes for Mikko. I thought he would improve on his first year and be Wall between the the pipes. Instead the team never knew what they were going to get out of Mikko from game to game. Smith was pretty much the same the last 3 playoffs he let in some real softies at the wrong time. The more I watch of Campbell the more excited I become. I can’t wait to see him thrive in Edmonton. The man was 51-14-9 in Toronto which is a graveyard for Goalies. All this with playing half a year with bad ribs which had to effect his Save Percentage last year of 914.
Oops before OP brings up the stat and he will that Mike Smith save percentage was 915 Smith played in almost half as many games as Campbell while the Oilers were making a desperate run after firing Tippett.
McLoed at 2L is possible and provides other nice line combos. Holloway at 2L after new year is also possible and provides even more nice line combos.
McLeod has seen some reps at 2LW and likely will see more but my hesitation with that placement is that one of his biggest attributes is the zone exit/transition/entry part of the game and, when playing with McDavid or Drai, its not really his “job” to do that, right?
I worry about regression in that the Kings series was extremely close, the Flames series was a fever dream of oddly terrible hockey at that time of year. The Avs series, while we were sorta close several times, we certainly did not look like the dominant team at any point in the series.
I believe in Woody and the numbers suggest a team that really turned the corner until the powerhouse at the end.
I still can’t shake the Flames of 14 where they won a series almost exclusively on luck and regressed. The miracle run does not mean your team is truly good. Montreal the year before last. This doesn’t look like that, but one doesn’t truly know until there are multiple years of success.
Plus I’m an Oil fan, im used to getting a hoof to the nads when i get my hopes up.
Two words: Mcdavid and Draisaitl.
Don’t worry, be happy!
Montreal’s run was the definition of a miracle propped up by an 80 year old Shea Weber on his last ankle.
Calgary regressed because they are godless degenerates.
All fair points. A lot of folks on here seem preoccupied with what the 2027 Flames will look like, not the team that will take the ice next year. Treliving has done a tidy bit of work, certainly enough to make Calgary a threat to win the Pacific next year.
LA should also not be dismissed out of hand.
They finished 3rd despite being without two too 4D for much of the season.
They addressed their biggest need, a scorer, and if they can get their PP working (new coach) they’ll be a handful as their young guns progress.
Do the young guys progress?
Why yes they do and the Kings have a ton of them.
Apparently only other teams young guys progress, Oilers just shrivel on the vine. At least according to d bag theorists.
And others only look at Huberdeaus point totals and not see how poor he is in his own end
Huberdeau was sheltered by Barkov’s line. It is not clear what his production will look like as the go to guy on Calgary.
I think some of the Kings series is this team learning how to win in the playoffs.
Smith handed a game to the Kings in that series too. When the series was on the line, (G6&7) the oilers dominated the kings.
I see from the down votes 😉 you are getting the same reaction that I have been getting all summer for pointing out that we were an 11th place team for last season and that that is the more appropriate place to start expectations for the coming season than the final four most prefer to focus on.
Sprinkle in the Woodcroft/Manson coaching change, re-signing Kane & Kulak and adding a more consistent goalie tandem and I think we should be able to see this team as a top 8 contender. The only other major change is Broberg for Keith.
We were only 6 points out of 7th/8th place last season. I consider that a reasonable expectation and I think that puts the team in to the echelon of true contenders come playoff time. And, of course, the team that starts the season is unlikely to be the same as the one after the TD.
Consider, though, that in order to climb from 11th to 8th we have to pass Boston, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Ahead of them are Florida, Colorado, Carolina, Toronto, Minnesota, Calgary and NYR. There are a couple of teams there that could slip but climbing at the top end of the standings is a touch more difficult than getting out of the basement.
And I like this team. I just don’t think this is their peak. Broberg, Bouchard, McLeod, Holloway, Bourgault, Skinner, maybe Samorukov all have room to grow while I don’t see too much drop off for the older guys on the team. We are going to be good for the next 3 years.
I think this is all true. Which is why I am excited for the next few years. The team got some great experience last year, especially young guys. They have lots of developing talent. Things are only going to get better.
While I generally agree with this, it ignores changes that competing teams have made in the offseason so it’s important to look both forward and backward.
For example, Vancouver was 32-15-10 after Bruce Boudreaux took over.
This coincided with Elias Pettersson finally recovering from his wrist injury and scoring at a PPG pace. Of course they also added Kuzmenko to their top 6 and, while adding top Russian scorers has been hit and miss, he has the potential to have the kind of impact that Kaprizov did in Minnesota
The Canucks early season swoon was mainly due to a pathetic PK causing them to lose a ton of one goal games. They have replaced their PK coach and added an elite PK player in Ilya Mikhayev so are likely to be much better in that regard.
Vegas remains pretty much an unknown considering their goaltending which I believe they will address but still I can’t imagine they won’t be better if they have an average number of injuries…they are still very talented.
I expect Anaheim will make some progress with a full season of Mason McTavish, and their two young stud D. Not there yet but should be able to win more games.
I mentioned LA above so won’t belabour the point but expect them to be better with a big scorer on their top line and progression from their many young guns.
Seattle too promises to be much better with Shane Wright and Matty Benier down the middle as well as a few savvy veteran signings.
Given the number of games teams play within their division, I expect the standings in the Pacific to be much tighter so making the top 8 overall should be tougher unless there are Oiler players who take a big step forward…perhaps Bouchard or McLeod and Holloway blows the doors off.
Of course everyone else will be better but if a young Oiler does not take a big step forward the Oilers are doomed. You’re such a pathetic loser.
No they will be the same and that is obviously not good enough.
Agreed. And, of course, there are teams every year that inexplicably exceed or disappoint.
Learning to win is a concept that I think a lot of people discount that I think plays a role. I think when teams expect to win it cuts down on the panic or whatever it is that takes close games and turns them into losses rather than wins. Those one goal games tend to have a huge impact on the standings come late April.
The thing the final four finish did for the Oilers is make them more confident in themselves imo. Something that has taken forever to filter into that team’s psyche imo.
We’ll see how it all plays out. As you know from our conversations earlier in the summer I don’t think this team is a finished product. Keith’s retirement allowed them to move their time line up but there are still some things to be determined – experience on the back end is something I am big on and that is light. Talent is there imo but no substitute for actually proving it.
Vancouver should be better, Vegas is a hot mess in goal at the moment but still to be determined, LA could take another step. Lots of rebuilds in the division though.
Yeah…learning to win is indeed a process..
As far as I can see, the Oilers MAY be better in goal and the bet on Campbell is much more astute than the risky ones last season.
Otherwise not much overall improvements but progress from Bouchard could help and a full season of Kulak should too but I see the overall D average at best.
The forward group is essentially the same…do they have another gear?
You saw me try to trade for Chychrun the other day so I can’t disagree on the defense.
You have probably also seen me preach that reliability is the most important asset for a goalie. Every team would love to have a Vasilevsky or Shesterkin but in a capped league what you pay for there you lose somewhere else. What kills teams are bad goals. The kind that Koskinen and to a lesser extent Smith were guilty of the last few years. When Smith was on he was excellent but streaky is not an attribute you want in your starting goalie.
But since you mentioned the Canucks improvement under Boudreau you also have to acknowledge what happened once Woodcroft and Manson arrived in Edmonton. To not do so weakens your position.
Absolutely true about the Woodcroft bump but the Canucks were coming from a much darker place and have boosted their forward core substantially. Still a mess on D but they do have an elite goaltender so we’ll see.
The thing about goaltenders is they often need time to adjust to new teams and systems before settling in as we saw with Markstrom in Calgary but you’re right…Campbell is a much better bet.
And I know I am a lone voice on this but don’t write Skinner off. Demko may play 60-65 again this year in Vancouver but I am not convinced Campbell is built that way. More like 50-55. Skinner is going to surprise some people.
The Canucks have placed a big bet on 27 year old Spencer Martin in hopes he can play 30 games.
He was spectacular in limited work and very solid in the AHL.
I never doubt the opinion of goalie whisperer Ian Clark.
His track record is gold.
Everybody focuses on the #1 guy but the #2 guy is becoming a 40% of the games guy for more and more teams. The days when your #2 only played the dregs of the league are no more. They may not play against the cream but if you are starting 30 games or so you better be able to play well enough for your team to win.
Yes…the game is changing substantially in that way as the butterfly style has resulted in more injuries.
I am if the opinion that’s why smart teams are investing massively in goaltender development teams.
The payoff could be huge.
Yup, my pre-season guess on splits for the Pacific barring injuries.
The guesses are based upon past splits and don’t all add up to 82 because of guys getting pulled.
Gibson 55 Stolarz 27
Markstrom 65 Vladar 25
Campbell 50 Skinner 32
Quick 45 Petersen 40
Grubauer 55 Jones 30
Demko 65 Martin 17
Kahkonen 42 Hill 40 if Reimer is traded which I expect
Who knows what Vegas is going to do now but I think Reimer is the most likely guy they target that is available.
Good Lord, you haven’t even touched on the teams in front of the Oilers, all of whom got worse.
Which ones and why?
I was talking about the conference.
Colorado, Minnesota, Calgary, St. Louis. All of them.
So you say…why?
You follow hockey, I’m not going to write out each teams transactions for you.
Dom is just one source on this, but his 8 ‘biggest losers’ the summer features all 4 of the WC teams who finished ahead of Edmonton last year (Oilers were at 11th best in the league).
There’s a reason they play the games, but all indications are that the Oilers improved year over year relative to the league, and in particular relative to the WC teams that finished ahead of them.
I agree.
Yes, agreed, the Canuck’s signed some middling KHL winger and they are now destined to win the cup!
Kuzmenko was the second leading scorer in the KHL.
And, as I said, that doesn’t always translate to the NHL but when it does, it’s spectacular. It’s why the Oilers pursued him and lost out.
I don’t expect the Canucks to win the cup…their overall D corp remains weak but there’s a very good chance they take more points from their Pacific Division rivals.
Literally no one thinks kuzmenko has Kaprizov potential. No one
Aren’t you the guy that insisted over and over and over that Colorado’s D was too small and their goaltending wasn’t good enough to win a cup?
Why yes you were.
Not sure I will put much credence in you claiming you represent the entire hockey world.
Thanks.
Kaprizov was for years considered the best player outside the NHL and one of the top prospects. Kaprizov was regarded to be the best one since Panarin. Please post all the links from people comparing kuzmenko to Kaprizov
now list all the stuff you were wrong about
Thanks
Kuzmenko was indeed 2nd overall in KHL scoring this past season.
I would suggest anyone the wants to know what that means to take a look at the top 10, heck 20, scorers in the KHL year after year. Those that have made an impact in the NHL is really limited to one in recent history – Kaprisov – that’s all.
Doesn’t always translate really means, almost never translates – the top 10 in scoring is littered with guys like Temmu Hartikainen.
He’s 26, DSF. Wildcard for sure, but this isn’t Panarin.
I agree that the Canucks were better under Boudreau, but I think it is a big stretch to say that Kuzmenko = Kaprizov. Kaprizov came to the NHL at age 23 with 4 KHL seasons of 0.8 ppg or better. Kuzmenko is arriving at age 26 with only one season over 0.8 ppg.
The history of the game is littered with players who unexpectedly broke out later in their careers.
Will Kuzmenko be one if them? Who knows but it does happen.
Kane in the near future with three 35 Goal seasons in his thirties after scoring a high of 30 twice in his 20’s
Lol!! So elite players are elite early
except 31 year olds and now players that sign with Canucks
alrighty then
You are an excellent poster but I am surprised at your comment that 11th place should be the starting point for measuring expectations. It would be at least as valid to argue the team’s record under Woodcroft would be the starting point – I seem to recall the Oilers were third best on that basis. Just my two cents worth.
Thanks for the compliment. Not sure it is justified but thanks.
The reason I take the whole season rather than the record under Woodcroft is because it places the team in a position equal to all the other teams. Then I added the coaching changes and the on ice personnel changes to predict improvement.
Teams often get a bump with a coaching change that lacks sustain so while I saw the improvement and think that it is real and will carry over I feel the entire season gives a more ‘reasonable expectation’ feel to assessing the team.
It allows me to ignore, to a certain extent, the kind of speculation that HH offers on why other teams should be better this coming season. Every team thinks improvements will come from this move or that move but at the top end of the league upward movement comes harder and every team has a narrative that explains why this is their year.
Broberg, Bouchard, McLeod, Holloway, Skinner, Bourgault, Samorukov is a lot of talent but a lot of youth as well. Not all of them will progress at the same speed.
jmo
You’re being down voted because we were a lesser team under Tippet. And the last HALF of the season under Woodcroft, we were tied with Calgary as the 2nd best team in the NHL behind only Florida. Our deadline pickups and Coach will be with us all year. We only lost our 2 Goalies who i believe we upgraded on both. And Kassian who we upgraded on by process of elimination. And Keith, i think Broberg will be an Ok replacement. We didn’t get worse. And all the youth likely progresses. The 2nd half schedule last year, lack of practice time, system implementation difficulties and Kanes cold start will not be an issue this coming season. I Expect an even better team then the one in the 2nd half last year.
I you’re seeing things right. Teams that become dominant are able to play a tight game consistently, the steadiness of play (for the most part, most teams have at least a mini slump) is the hallmark of their quality
The Oilers weren’t their last season or playoffs, consistently. Still lots of breakdowns and blown coverage. Which means they don’t minimize the effects of luck, and it runs out good or bad
Hopefully a full season and full camp with the coaches and a few better players and they take the step from heart attack style to a less sphincter activating game
Stiffer N and D zone, less time in the D zone through better structure and breakouts, consistent dump ins or carry ins O zone, assignments being met regularly
Hyman is right at home in the top 6 add-in Kane and these 2 take the pressure off Yamo and J.P who I believe are still just borderline top 6. Campbell will be the biggest add he’s 30 and in his prime with the path he took to get here. Jack’s the starter for the next 5 years he’s paid well and has a opportunity to win Cups. If the Oilers aren’t a top 5 team statistically for the next 3 years of Leon contract I’ll be disappointed.
I wonder how one can cite the Canucks records after a coaching change as evidence of the gap being closed on the Oilers without acknowledging the Oilers record after a coaching chance (26-9-3)…..
Of course, one run to the SF does not guarantee the team being a top 4-8 team in the league.
The team had some performances that are likely not repeatable (i.e Kane’s goals) and required some supervona games from McDavid and historic production from both McDavid/Drai (which may actually be repeatable).
On the other hand there were performances that were below expectation from some important players, including the #1 d-man who couldn’t skate, essentially.
The thing is, this team has been building for years and continues to so – the core is still young and on the upswing and are being surrounded by impact vets (prior to regression) and better depth pieces – they look to continue to grow year after year.
They are a good team, a very good team, that doesn’t mean they will be back in the final four but they should be contending for that spot yearly for a while now.
2 of the 4 teams last year got objectively worse in the off-season.
I really want Patrick Kane.
playing around on capfriendly, I do not think it is realistic. Maybe if there was a third team involved with more money retained.
P. Kane and Drai would be a dream.
McD+E Kane and Drai+P Kane = Stanley Cup. Simple math…:)
Kane 50% retained to Yotes 5.25C-1.45Mcash
Kane 50% retained to Oil 2.625cap- 722500k cash.
A 4th or 5th to Yotes.
Foegele, Jesse, Lavoie, 2024 1st to Hawks
We now have Kane and around 3.4-3.5m in cap space to sign McLeod (1.15×2) and potentially get both of Milano and Kessel.
EKane/McD/Kessel
Milano/Drai/PKane
Hyman/Nuge/Yamamoto
Janmark/McLeod/Ryan
I think the Oilers would need to surrender Bourgault. Could be wrong, but ‘Hawks will want a 2023 first and a quality prospect. No disrespect to Lavoie but he doesn’t move the needle on a trade like this one.
Monahan says he feels healthy and will play this season. I wonder how close he and Kadri will be in total points this season if he is truly healthy.
Monahan is a good player. I don’t think he was a Sutter kind of player though so that was probably the deciding factor in the trade.
That said I will venture that Monahan and Kadri put up similar totals and Monahan is in his prime at 27.
And, yes, that first was a big price to pay for whatever kind of upgrade Treliving thinks he accomplished.
If Monahan recovers, definitely massive trade for Habs.
I look at it as a Monahan for Toffoli trade both are Goal Scorers first before anything else. Toffoli’s a couple hundred grand cheaper but the Habs end up with 2 first round picks in the 20-30 range. This could end up being a massive steal if Monahan returns to form and if 30 year-old Toffoli loses a step or his scoring touch.
Thunderstorms on the island can’t help me to think about what if Jay Evens had Yakupov, we he be known as the Bee Keeper?
When Connor sent the Flames packing are they sliding into eachother at center ice with a explosion of fist pumps?
It’s a little early in the day, isn’t it?
lol
Bring Yakupov to camp on a PTO you cowards.
The guy’s become a very mediocre KHL player in his prime years. Even if he were willing to come back on a PTO I don’t think he’d be likely to make any kind of impact.
His most recent 3 KHL seasons:
21-22 43 9-17-26
20-21 37 7-9-16
19-20 46 10-10-20
Had he performed anywhere near his potential, we could have had a Yak, a Bison, and one of the GOATs (McD).
Any other livestock we can add to the list?
And the cowboy on the d corps, as well as a dad to oversee things and a nurse to pitch in if they need mending.
We briefly had a Big Ox in the mid 90s…
Well Nurse has been referred to as a horse, and Draisaitl as a bull in a china shop. Plus there are various chicken sh**s around the league that could be had pretty easily.
And then there are rats and turtles among other non-farm animals if we wanted to go there.
Then there are some players in the league I would never compare to a farm animal in total. I would, however, easily compare them to the back half of select farm animals easily. Like M Tkachuk…
Not bringing him back is smart! If management brings him back and he plays well they were stupid for letting him go. If he is bad they’re stupid for bringing him back. Never a good plan to put yourself in a lose lose scenario!
Other than getting cap compliant do the Oilers have to do any more moves?
I have no doubt that Holloway is ready for 3LW duty so the question becomes do you play Nuge as 2LW and move Hyman to the right? Or do you play him at 3c although Mcdavid and Drai eat way too many minutes for both Nuge and McLeod to be centers
These questions would be easily answered if the 4c position was up graded with the right guy . Right now they have Shore , Malone & Ryan . Unless they decide to use Nuge at 3c & MacLeod at 4c . Which would be fine . But it would be nice to have more flexibility .
You just explained they have 4 guys that can cover 4C, clearly they need 3 more.
No they really only need one 4c to solidify the fourth as a unit. I’m suggesting Shore, Malone & Ryan aren’t suitable to play 4c and are more suitable as fourth line wingers .
The 4th line is Janmark Holloway and Ryan. The guys you mention are NOT the centres you are looking for.
Oh yeah ! I forgot.
But . If they had a solid veteran 4c they could use Holloway elsewhere.
Holloway didn’t play center at all for the Condors last year. Part of that was likely continued hand injury recovery but I wouldn’t think the org would throw him in to the NHL at center with zero pro experience.
Ryan COULD center that line but the org likes him better on the wing and it also would have two left wingers.
To the initial post, I do agree that Holloway is very likely 3LW ready but, unless Foegele is moved, I could see him getting some early games in the AHL.
I could see Holland liking to give him that start and a call up after producing 0.75 P/G to 1 for a month – maybe even center reps.
I like this in theory, if the team wants to put Holloway at C.
Remind we where you have Nuge and McLeod playing though?
Kane McDavid Yamamoto
Hyman Draisailt Bourgault
Nugent-Hopkins McLeod Puljujarvi
Janmark Holloway Ryan
Kane McDavid Yamamoto
Hyman Draisailt Kessel
Holloway Nugent-Hopkins Puljujarvi
Janmark McLeod Rodrigues
Bourgault by February.
What are you paying Kessel and Rodrigues, as I think that $3MM combined is light.
OPs question is valid. By my count you’ve got only about $2.5M for both of Kessel and Rodrigue.
Also, who on earth is Bourgault pushing out of that lineup by February?
Thanks.
Problem is how many minutes Mcdavid and Drai eat. Hard to find a good 4c when you only have 5 minutes for them a night
Younger players are the best with their innate enthusiasm for life and the game in general.
Ryan McLeod is a perfect, shining example.
You are going to demote McLeod?
I guess I need to explain myself better . If they had more confidence in their fourth line , they would be able to give them more ice time , thus rest Connor & Leon a little more .
The goal should be to reduce those McDavid and Drai minutes and to have a 4th line that can eat more and at least tread water if not make a positive impact more often than not.
And to further your point, a top 4C will command a higher salary and that is not something worth spending cap dollars on. The team will need an existing roster player on a low cap hit to outperform expectations at 4C.
Which is why McLeod should be the 4C this season plus PP and PK time while getting some time on the top 9 as a winger as game situations dictate.
It will allow him to mature as a centre (which I think is important) while getting him his minutes and making the 4th line an asset.
Thank you for the observation – it reminds me of how any hockey team that considers its 4th line must have the rest of the team fairly set.
In the early 2000’s Oilers barely had a 2nd line. It was more like 3rd line after 3rd line.
It worked out pretty well after Woodcroft took over.
Now Nuge missed 12 of the 38 games with injury, and McLeod played around 40% of his time with one of the 3 centers, but there were enough minutes to go around all told.
(Nuge only played about 20 minutes on the wing under Woodcroft, and McDavid-Draisaitl played under 60 minutes together, so the 3 were full time centers).
Total TOI/game
McDavid 21:29
Draisaitl 21:47
Nuge — 17:58
McLeod 13:58
5v5 TOI/game
McDavid 16:02
Draisaitl 15:13
Nuge — 12:05
McLeod 10:34
I think it’s workable with the 4 C’s remaining mostly at C, though I think there’s also a good chance Hyman spends time on RW if they don’t add someone like Kessel.
Woodcroft could also cut back a bit on McDavid and Draisaitl’s minutes (closer to 20 min/game) since the team should be in a more comfortable position regarding playoffs this time around.
I’m not sure it’s much of a concern, and if nothing else it’s a good problem to have.
If you sign a Kessel or Milano, you can roll with ‘too much’ depth:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Draisaitl-Kessel/Milano
Holloway-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Janmark-McLeod-Ryan
If you don’t sign Kessel/Milano you can run with:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Nuge-Draisaitl-Hyman
Holloway-McLeod-Puljujarvi
Janmark-McKeeg/Shore-Ryan
Or an external C/W upgrade like: Gagner, Rask, Sprong, Steel, Svechnikov, Motte, Aston-Reese, Simon, Eakin, or other (trade also possible of course)
Both scenario’s assume Foegele is the cap dump, with a 13F/7D/2G roster.
And both alignments have a quality top 9, plus some 4th line depth that can move up when needed.
i have to say, aston-reese looks rather appealing as a 4th liner who could take hard defensive zone starts and succeed.
I like steel but he cant seem to put it together… sprong has offensive upside but is iffy in the dzone, gags is not known for his defensive prowess although he is a fantastic teammate and locker room guy which is not something to discount. i like motte a lot, speedy, knows his role, wont give up a ton.
If its me i sign motte or aston reese ahead of gags. We already have derek ryan which unless the move is waiving or trading ryan and replacing him with gags i dont see how it helps the team to have both.
I don’t disagree, though as LT said the other day Gagner (the Athletic I think) could move up and play with skill as needed. There definitely are a number of cheap 4th line types still out there that could help though, no question.
Yes.. the last thing we need is slow, defensively poor bottom 6 players… (which is why all the Gagner talk has me wondering what people are thinking he is at this point, beyond nostalgically).
I’m having flashbacks to last summer when I kept posting that with PK &PP time Nuge would get his minutes anchoring the 3rd line at centre no matter how many said he wouldn’t.
I don’t know what it is but for some reason the 3C position seems to be regarded by a lot of people as somehow less important than a 2W position and I think that is just plain wrong.
I suspect it comes from the idea of top six / bottom six which hasn’t been good enough to win in this league for some time now. Top nine / bottom 3 is the winning combination for the final 4 the way the game is played these days and that 3C position is far more important than it gets credit for imo.
My rant for the day. 😉
Yes, you’ve definitely been on Nuge at 3C for some time. It does look like the minutes for him wouldn’t be an issue at all (though McLeod would likely get squeezed a bit if Nuge were to play 3C).
Agreed top 9 is key, and the Oilers are looking pretty solid in that area, whoever is added/removed between now and opening night.
I’d argue 3C is pivotal. When you get deep top 6 often saws off (all good teams) and it’s the bottom 6 that tips the scales. And bottom D especially if there’s an injury
A team with three strong lines is a juggernaut
Riffing off LT and looking at straight points comps for Savoie, which likely does him a disservice since his goal scoring is strong.
This past season was his U20 year, and he was the top scoring U20 player in college (39 23-22-45 1.15 points/game). Matty Berniers and Kent Johnson bested him by 0.01 points/game.
So by season I looked at players who had at least 1.10 points/game as U20 players.
21-22
Berniers 1.16
Johnson 1.16
Savoie 1.15
Jake Sanderson 1.13
-Top 5 picks plus Savoie. That’s solid.
20-21
Cole Caufield 1.68
Dylan Holloway 1.52
Matt Boldy 1.41
Thomas Bordeleau 1.25
-Impressive scoring group there. All played at least one NHL game in the year since (Boldy and Caufield becoming regular top 6 types).
19-20
Jack Drury 1.39
Alex Newhook 1.24
-Newhook is an established NHLer with a Cup ring. Drury had a strong AHL season with an NHL cup of coffee this past year (spent 20-21 in the SHL, winning a championship as well as a World Championship medal).
18-19
Evan Barratt 1.34
-Stuck in the AHL with mediocre numbers (though I think Penn State is unaffiliated with a major conference, so probably played weaker competition than the others listed here)
17-18
None
16-17
Clayton Keller 1.45
Troy Terry 1.29
Denis Smirnov 1.21 (also played for Penn State like Barratt)
Henrik Borgstrom 1.16
Adam Fox 1.14
Trent Frederic 1.10
-Keller and Terry are top 6 forwards. Fox is a Norris winning D. Frederic is a legit NHLer, and Borgstrom is over 100 NHL games, though struggling. Smirnov played (I believe) easier comp in putting up these numbers, and is not a player of note)
I’ll stop there. But even scoring 1.15 points/game at Savoie’s age is fairly rare air. Most of the players who’ve managed that have gone on to NHL careers, or look poised to do so. Great arrows for the kid, hope he can keep it up on turning pro!
This is very valuable analysis and gives me hope for Savoie even though his numbers are at the lower end of the group. He is going to have to blow the doors off the AHL and not leak goals to make the oilers over the next few years, though.
Yeah, it’s true Savoie’s numbers are at the lower end of the range. I also didn’t check ages beyond being “U20”, and a lot of guys listed would have been younger than Savoie. Great arrows still, but LT’s comps were picked more carefully and are probably more accurate.
In terms of Savoie making the Oilers, obviously he needs to keep scoring, and become an outscorer in Bakersfield. But cap pressures are going to keep opening up roster spots going forward, so his path to the lineup may not be as blocked as it seems today.
I think the main danger is only looking at the players that had better numbers. It’s a short list, which is enticing, but I imagine there’s a longer lost of players above 1.0 PPG that are long forgotten. Still, hope dies last!
It’s kinda sad that the Oilers next moves involve subtracting a player (and ~$2M) from the roster.
Hopefully the cap clearing move allows enough wiggle to add something useful back (Foegele out -> Kessel/Milano in, or Barrie out -> Subban/Stralman in, etc).
The Oilers are a really good hockey team and made key acquisitions this year and last
Agreed. Adding a goalie plus holding onto their in-season acquisitions was a big deal, and not many (myself included) though it would be possible.
Just noting the juxtaposition of:
‘maybe the Flames aren’t done’
vs.
‘your move Oilers’ = shed a player
Even Ken Holland himself did think it would be possible, he stated outright “I can’t bring everyone back” – We’ll, he has, so far, as it’s subject to a cap compliance move as we know.
But Holland was right, it wasn’t/isn’t possible.
Keith has been subtracted, and barring an LTIR injury another player from last year remains to be removed.
It’s been great work, with the most key players returning, but it certainly wasn’t painless.
Holloway is like adding a new shiny player.
Jakob Pelletier.
27 goals 67 points -Stockton Heat
Pelletier’s numbers are very similar to Tyler Benson’s first AHL season, both in their draft +3
Pelletier had an underwhelming 7 points in 13 playoff games, but I guess poor playoff performances were par for the course throughout the Flames organization.
Pelletier can skate.
Benson had ONE point in the AHL playoffs.
What are you on about? He only played 1 game.
Haha so Benson had a better ppg than Pelletier in the playoffs? What a foolish statement by HH.
Is there any other kind from that buffon.
A random AHL point per game stat from a player in another org thrown out as some sort of argument against the statement that Holloway may be 3LW ready. Pretty sure that poster has never watched a single second of the professional hockey by this player nor any of his prior games in the NCAA (except a highlight posted here) – watching this player play AHL hockey leaves the watcher with the clear knowledge that his impact on the ice is far greater than his box-cars.
Sorry…gave him too much credit.
Make sure you don’t jinx Pelletier like you did Rafferty. Oops, too late!
It must feel like your shooting fish in a barrel – considering you have 31 other teams with which to choose players who you can argue are superior to any Oilers player.
And you come across as incredibly smart.
It’s genius.
Point being all teams have players like Holloway.
There have been a couple of times you apologized for your bad posts and blamed your age.
Is this just the default expectation now for all of your posts?
I am not sure how Reja saying having Holloway is like having a shiny new player and you responding with Jakob Pelletier’s stats makes any logical sense what so ever.
It’s all relative. When you are an anti-Oiler d bag, it looks logical.
I gave up on rumors of good players around the time Yakupov busted.
Since then McDavid was certainly that new shiny player.
Obviously its pre season now and for all we know Oilers are brimming with good prospects; since Holland has stopped rushing them onto the team. What a concept, to allow players to develop for 2-3 seasons before throwing them into the bigs against grown men. RNH Gagner and that Shultz, the poor defenceman that was run out of town to Pittsburgh could have used this system.
Training camp, pre season games don’t count either, doth say this embittered fan.
Forewards are a totally different breed then Defenceman. Would Gagner and RNH be better players today if they had played 1or 2 years in the minors are a extra year of Junior?
Gagner came into the NHL hyped as a teenage phenom – which for the opening part of his rookie season he was before his relatively weak body got pounded out of him by the grizzled NHL veteran players who being grown men could flatten him in ways I wouldn’t want to imagine.
RNH was even more of a skinny body, and easily could have used 2 more seasons away from the grimy monsters to get stronger. There was even a specific point where RNH stopped trying to beat the opposition, and for the next several seasons he kind of learned how to semi float around out there. Now he is only starting to show his veteran savvy self and its a big difference from his weak play of 2-3 seasons ago.
Throwing rookies into the NHL is borderline insane when you factor in the attrition rate of 1st round picks.
Oilers in 5.
A great thing to while away 15 minutes is to watch one of the first 2 Oilers playoff series highlights on Youtube.
It’s a good way to get a blitz chess quick look at how the team is developing into a Cup contender.
For some reason I prefer the Calgary series.
Adding players as Calgary did is not a guarantee of improvement regardless of the quality of the player. Hockey is first and foremost a TEAM game and developing chemistry often takes time. Taking players from offence first teams and putting them on a defence first team should change the expectation of points they will score as well! We all know and have seen the truth in that the team on the ice may not live up to the expectations of the team on paper. Part of the reason I am as optimistic about the Oilers is their continuity from last year! I am also of the belief that Sutters coaching method is a good part of why two players went elsewhere as UFA’s.
It seems my comment came off as more negative than intended.
I like this Oilers team lots. I have high hope and high expectations for them. They’ve improved since last season while their main competition has gotten weaker. I agree also that the continuity of keeping the team together is an added advantage.
I just found it strange to frame things as ‘power move Calgary, your move Oilers’, when we know the Oilers next move is likely to be a cap dump that weakens the roster.
when we know the Oilers next move is likely to be a cap dump that weakens the roster.
======================
Is that true though?
Is the roster weaker, for example, if Foegele is moved for nothing or costs something that doesn’t affect this year’s roster and then Holland signs Kessel or Rodrigues for example? Or maybe he signs both of them and sends Ryan to Bakersfield. Is that weaker?
There are moves available out there are there not? Bargain bin shopping season is still open.
Whatever move is made to clear cap is going to weaken the roster in and of itself, but fair enough the corresponding move(s) could end up being net positive.
It felt to me like setting things up for disappointment, though turning a cap dump into Kessel and/or Rodrigues would certainly fit the spirit of LT’s ‘power move’ – paying to move Monahan in order to improve the Flames today.
And Stauffer keeps insisting neither Calgary nor Edmonton are finished for the summer.
That could mean a lot of different things, though if he keeps touting it you’d figure the expectation is more than league min add(s).
It’s a good thing Ken Holland is a more patient man than most.
I haven’t looked for a bit but does Foegele out and Holloway in get the team cap compliant with a 22-player opening roster (Benson at $750K and Samorukov at $775K as the extras)?
Holloway could very well come in and impact the bottom six LW (or 4C if Godot’s plan comes to fruition) in a material way.
I can’t say that Holloway in over Foegele doesn’t downgrade the team, Foegele is a good NHL hockey player, but it may not.
Late to this reply, but yes, Foegele out for Holloway and running a 22-man roster would be compliant with a bit to spare (eg – Kessel at $1.2M-ish would be possible).
Tks.
Nice comps for Savoie LT. Definitely shows some hope for a legitimate career (which his scoring also suggests as possible).
Savoie is likely an NHL player right now from the blueline in. He’s got major skills and vision with the puck on his stick.. It’s a matter of if he can play in the other 2/3rds of the ice.
I watched a ton of the Pioneers over the last two seasons since the Oilers drafted Savoie and, my goodness, that shot of his is indeed something else. Its not that is a pure “bomb” or anything like that its that he’s got this crazy release, almost kind of sneaky, and he can shoot the puck, with authority and aim, from all sorts of angles and puck positions – its like he fools goalies, at least at the NCAA level. Aside from that, he’s good good offensive instincts and thinks the offensive game at a high level, sees plays before they develop, but, at the end of the day, its that shot that will make his NHL career – if he gets there.
I am enthused by seeing objective development in his “play away from the puck” and battle game. To start draft plus 1, he was always stationary in the defensive zone- waiting for the puck to come for the breakout. He developed and, as needed, was always in motion, covering the d-man and helping down low. He’s not great on the boards but he does battle and throws a nice bomb-hit once per game or so.
His skating is still one area that I think needs improvement – his straight speed is OK, good enough, be he’s not really “quick” or “agile” – as good as his shot is, unless he’s absolutely elite at finding the space (and hiding on the ice), he’ll need to continue to work on that skating if he’s going to make it at the AHL level, let alone the NHL level.
While Savoie is a bit older than most prospects that come out of the CHL (turning 21 in January), what we know is how big the gap is between the CHL/NCAA and the AHL and how most non top tier prospects (like Bourgault) generally require a large and material adjustment period. Its not just that the game on the ice is faster with more skilled players who are bigger/strong MEN, many of which are playing for their next AHL contract and their livelihood, but also the grind of a pro schedule, learning to live without a billet family (or in res) and having hockey as a JOB – commitment on and off the ice.
We’ve seen prominent amateur producers struggle in their first year of the AHL – Maksimov, Lavoie most recently. I think that Savoie (and Tulio) will be fighting for ice and deployment on the PP, etc. They will have their moments and stretches when their skill shows through but I think there will be a big learning curve and Chaulk will make them earn minutes with effort and commitment.
What I look for is the splits – to see material development from the first half of the season to the second.
That shot though…..
It takes a special coach and organization to build a great scorer or a “rover” type defenseman. The coach demands the player to play within a system, be in the right spot to make the play. I wonder if Bossy or Hull or … would have been great goal scorers in today’s NHL systems driven coaches.
Before Lavoie or Savoie flame out in the AHL with a predictable story line. What would a score first winger look like with 97 or 29 or on the PP for 25 games.