This is the first game in Bakersfield Condors AHL history, a 1-0 win with Laurent Brossoit getting the shutout. Among Condors that night were Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse and 11 other men who had played in the NHL or would play in the years to come. This was opening night 2015, what did the prospect list look like in the fall of 2015?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ opening night roster will be influenced by salary cap, waivers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ European, college and junior prospects for 2022-23
- Jonathan Willis: The Edmonton Oilers are rapidly approaching their “all-in” moment
- Lowetide: Why Oilers trading for Patrick Kane makes more sense at the deadline
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Why Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie is in for a make or break season
- Lowetide: Finding Edmonton Oilers’ ideal skill lines for 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers have room for UFA contract or PTO. Is there a match?
- Lowetide: Oilers question marks as training camp nears
- Lowetide: Xavier Bourgault leads strong group of Oilers prospects graduating to pro hockey this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
THE 2015 TOP 20 PROSPECTS WHO PLAYED IN THE NHL 2015-16
Here’s the list, with NHL equivalency predictions, and where applicable, the results for each player in the NHL 2015-16.
- C Connor McDavid. NHLE: 82GP, 23-40-63 (0.77). Actual: 45GP, 16-32-48 (1.07)
- C Leon Draisaitl. NHLE: 82GP, 15-26-41 (0.50). Actual: 72GP, 19-32-51 (0.71)
- D Jordan Oesterle. NHLE: 82GP, 6-12-18 (0.22). Actual: 17GP, 0-5-5 (0.29)
- W Iiro Pakarinen. NHLE: 82GP, 16-11-27 (0.33). Actual: 63GP, 5-8-13 (0.21)
- D Darnell Nurse. NHLE: 82GP, 7-16-23 (0.28). Actual: 69GP, 3-7-10 (0.14)
- C Jujhar Khaira. NHLE: 82GP, 4-5-9 (0.11). Actual: 15GP, 0-2-2 (0.13)
- L Anton Slepyshev. NHLE: 82GP, 17-11-28 (0.34). Actual: 11GP, 0-1-1 (0.09)
- D Griffin Reinhart. NHLE: 82GP, 6-11-17 (0.21). Actual: 29GP, 0-1-1 (0.03)
- R Andrew Miller. NHLE: 82GP, 16-19-35. Actual: 6GP, 0-0-0.
Connor McDavid was miles better than the projection, Leon Draisaitl passed his NHLE and kept on skating. Darnell Nurse played quite a bit but his offense would take a couple of seasons to reach his projection. I think Iiro Pakarinen, Jordan Oesterle and Jujhar Khaira covered the bets. Anton Slepyshev didn’t play enough but probably would have covered his, too. Now, let’s look at the rookies who should play a significant amount in the NHL this coming season:
- LD Philip Broberg NHLE: 82GP, 5-25-30
- LW Dylan Holloway NHLE: 82GP, 10-17-27
- LC James Hamblin NHLE: 82GP, 13-9-22
- RD Vincent Desharnais NHLE: 82GP, 3-13-16
- LD Dmitri Samorukov NHLE: 82GP, 2-12-14
- LD Markus Niemelainen NHLE: 82GP, 2-7-9
Philip Broberg projects as a solid defenseman but I don’t think he’ll get power-play time. NHLE doesn’t know it, so we have a strong number. Holloway could post more impressive totals if he landed on a line with one of the top centers, and I’m not sure about Hamblin but do believe he will play some games this year. Dmitri Samorukov could play 50+ games this season if he lands (and maintains) the No. 7 defenseman job. Both Vincent Desharnais and Markus Niemelainen should see time.
I get the feeling some believe Philip Broberg is a lost cause, which is too bad because the young man is tracking well. I also see some unrealistic projections for what he’ll do this coming season. Let’s compare five-on-five totals for Broberg and Oscar Klefbom in an effort to find what kind of expectations are realistic for the coming season.
Broberg played on a superior team, so the possession numbers are superior, but Edmonton is going to be better than the team from a decade ago for the next three seasons. It’s also true Broberg’s time on ice is likely to trail Klefbom’s from 2014-15, meaning a greater chance of success. Broberg could play 14 minutes a night, finish above 50 percent in all of the metrics here, post 20+ points and there are those who would consider that not good enough for a top-10 pick.
Here’s the deal: The Zegras-Broberg conversation is long over, Zegras had more value. Hell, I had Zegras No. 8 and Broberg No. 16 on draft day for crying out loud. If you want to discuss that, fill your hat. I’m far more interested in seeing if Broberg can play 14 minutes a night at five-on-five and help outscore opponents. That’s a more productive conversation. Pretty sure.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
It’s 10-noon today, as we’ll be carrying the Canada-USA Women’s Hockey Game from the Worlds at noon. Glen Suitor will be our guest and we’ll discuss CFL Labor Day and NFL Cuts among other things. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
NEW for The Athletic: Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer and what math tells us about his future
https://theathletic.com/3547526/2022/08/31/edmonton-oilers-prospect-reid-schaefer-future/
So Pronman thinks Bouch will have a better career than M. MacTavish, O. Power. Q. Byfield, M. Boldy, Dobson, Caufield, Podkolzin, etc.
https://theathletic.com/3509131/2022/08/29/nhl-players-prospects-rankings-under-23/
I may need to re-read as I was informed that Dobson, Smith and his “draft cohort” had left him behind but…..
Vinny D. in Edmonton getting ready for camp – some great intel on what Manson has been for him in his development:
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/feature-desharnais-lacking-no-drive-in-bid-to-crack-oilers-roster/c-335425470
Amazing, I was literally about to post that with a mention of Manson’s role too. Definitely an interesting read.
All this talk about Broberg vs Zegras, and it rarely (if ever) comes up that the US NTDP practiced in Holland’s backyard. He probably had a dozen personal viewings, being the rink rat he’s reported to be by the media. So when he didn’t choose one of the US kids I was reasonably content to see how things developed.
Early days, yet. Broberg has talent, grit, athleticism and character. I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes a steady, 20+ minute a night, two-way defenseman. Doing so in Oilers silks for a decade would be a draft and development win, in my books.
Holland has petty much given the “pre-camp” plan for three main prospects. When asked about:
Broberg: “he’d have to play his way off the team” at this point.
Holloway: he spoke about needing to “take someone’s job” and that he’d need to be a “top 12F” as he’s play every night, not a 12F-14F.
Bourgault: he went off on a tangent about the AHL and how only special players wouldn’t really benefit from AHL time coming out of the CHL or the NCAA or etc.
I think we can be safe in assuming the plan is for real time with the Condors but I agree with Cam that he could impact the NHL lineup at some point. I’m hoping they will be able to move Foegele (for cap space reasons only), back-fill with Holloway and get Evan Rodrigues as he’d be the perfect middle 6 RW but, as of now, there is a gap on RW and D. Ryan should be 4RW. Hyman moving over is the stop-gap if they can’t fill the hole prior to the season but that’s not ideal and this could be a position for in-season improvement.
We know Holland will want to get a d-man in-season and, with money in/money out, its likely only 1 material move like last season will be available. It would be GREAT if Bourgault could be NHL middle 6 ready by early spring. Far from a lock but not out of the realm of reasonableness.
I kinda like Benson/Hamblin/Bourgault – unfortunately, Chaulk will probably stick Griffith there and Bourgault with Malone (if he’s not 4C on the Oilers).
Jon Willis was on with Bob today – nothing ground-breaking that most on here don’t already “know” but I thought it was a really great conversation – a solid listen.
7 years at over $7MM for Tage Thompson – I mean, unreal year, but one year, literally one full NHL season on his resume.
That is some risk.
Yeah, I’m always hesitant to sign a guy after only one breakout year.
I remember Thompson in the WJCs and he looked like the real deal. But for a lot of years after, he looked like a disappointment. Buffalo may have the cap room now to take that risk, but if several of their good prospects pan out, they may be wishing they had signed Thompson to a bridge deal.
It’s also worth remembering that scoring is up more than 10% from the mid-teens, so his numbers aren’t quite as good as they look.
For the sake of Buffalo’s knowledgeable, long-suffering fan base, I hope it works out.
Buffalo has to pay a premium to get players to stick around long term.
Also worth remembering we now have an accelerated date for the end of the escrow pay back so new contracts signed going forward will reflect that to some degree.
But Nurse is an above market signing.
Yes he is.
He’s being paid like one of the top 10 D in the league and he isn’t one of them.
He would have got it from most teams or more if on the market
Holland is a long term thinker and given the cap will take a good jump as you said Holland has said he wants players to sign and not regret it – test the market do whatever
I had issues with the amount, the other side of the coin says pay him, the cap proportion will sort out, and Nurse has Nootka complaint about
Some might say nothing
Is a 4th line of Janmark/Holloway/Ryan feasible?
I know Godot is all over Holloway at center (and this may be his preferred 4th line, can’t remember exactly).
I’ve never been against the premise of Holloway at 4C but have opined against it as I think the org sees him as a winger but, at the end of the day, they’ve never said that and its mostly due to useage last year in the AHL – purely on the wing. That very well could have been thumb/wrist related, 100%.
I don’t see the cap space for all of Foegele, Janmark and Holloway in the lineup (given Holloway is $925K) but could there be a Holloway at 4C even with Foegele out for cap space?
Kane/McDavid/Puljujarvi
Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto
Janmark/McLeod/Hyman
Shore(Benson)/Holloway/Ryan
Yeah I don’t think we can take anything from Holloway playing on the wing last year with his injury. He was a full time C in college (and the AJHL) wasn’t he?
It’s pretty unlikely all the forwards remain on opening night given the cap situation. But as LT has been saying, and per Willis’ Athletic article yesterday, it is possible to get compliant without a trade. It would take waiving and assigning one of Foegele, Janmark or Ryan, so I guess a Foegele-Holloway-Ryan line still wouldn’t actually be possible.
The only realistic (IMO) way we see something like that is if Barrie is the one traded to open up cap space.
Not sure why you all tip toe around the possibility of one of Puljujarvi or Yamamoto is traded to open up cap space . Especially with Rodrigues (C/ RW) still out there and the fact Hyman is a natural RW . Barrie isn’t going anywhere.
Barrie’s not going anywhere it’ll be either Foegele, J.P or Yamo. I can see a few folks crying in their Latte’s.
Hyman is more comfortable and productive playing left wing. Right shot right wingers are harder to come by than their left wing counterparts. Barrie is at his peak value trade wise and Bouchard is able to cover second pairing right D. Barrie’s lack of defensive acumen makes him less than ideal for third pairing D and at his cap hit is misplaced as third pairing D. Barrie has value but is in my opinion a luxury the Oilers can’t afford given the current cap restrictions. Trade a natural right winger as you suggest is counterproductive!
At the same time, if Barrie is moved the Oilers are left with 2 right shot NHL d-men……. a back-fill of a Subban (or other) would be a must. I like PK for 3RD more than most but its definitely a down-grade.
Is trading a natural RD not also counter-productive?
The area of greatest NHL depth is LW and Foegele out to make the cap space seems to make the most sense given the logical replacements for his role available.
To a small extent it may seem counterproductive but three current left shot D are able to play right side. Kulak, Broberg and Samorukov. This would not be ideal. By moving Barrie the team could carry a full complement of players and or afford to bring in a right shot less expensive D. I believe that the return for Barrie being a B level prospect and a mid round draft pick. Russel would be able to handle third pairing right D with Broberg on the left side as an example.
Russel would be able to handle third pairing right D with Broberg on the left side as an example.
=========
Kulak even more so imo.
So Russell at 2LD? 😉
Chychrun. I can be stubborn and unreasonable too. 😉
That would work well and may be the case when Broberg is able to move up to second pairing left D. That could be as early as mid season but more ideal would be an experienced defensive D for right side to pair With Broberg until he is able to move up.
Agreed. That would be better.
It’s going to be very interesting to see Vincent Desharnais in training camp . He would be a big surprise if he could make Tyson Barrie expendable . He might be that physical presence on the right side third pair . Just what the doctor ordered.
Hyman is comfortable on either wing . Not to mention he is a natural RW .
In small samples, he’s been better on the LW as an Oiler – mostly eye test but in small samples eye test is the best test and played predominantly left wing as a Leaf.
Ideal would be to keep him on the left side I would think.
Yes, you’re right they’re possibilities too.
All the verbal from the players and team suggests a Yamamoto trade is less likely, but I’d almost forgotten how much talk there was about Puljujarvi moving on just a month ago.
Stauf still likes to bring up Jesse in that regard – in particular when he has the likes of John Shannon on the show.
I was sure he was gone. May still happen but there doesn’t seem to be a market for him.
I think that’s part of it for sure. Puljujarvi has value to the Oilers, and Holland can’t just send him away, and certainly not for a poor return. I can see the team keeping him for another year, trying to increase value, or, if he blossoms, keeping him.
If he is dealt, my guess it would be “Puljujarvi and….” kind of deal.
Sounds right to me. There was too much smoke for there not to be fire as well, imo.
Holland somehow found a way to delay and try and build value but the road back is not easy.
And, yeah, Puljujarvi + is an old trick to hide disappointment in a trade.
Assuming you and/or LT mean optics, wouldn’t having to pay something to move Foegele be even more egg on his face than accepting a disappointing return for Puljujarvi?
An asset out to move Foegele would be better team wise In my opinion depending on how significant the asset.
Yes, depending how significant the asset, and what the return would be. That was my point. 🙂
(but I agree in a vacuum)
There’s a market, just not one that satisfied Holland’s ask. It’s also possible Puljujarvi was shopped in part to placate the player.
It does seem like something has to give before opening night. As you know, all the possible trade options are a balance between how much the organization values the player and how much another organization is willing to pay (or would need to be paid) for the player. If Puljujarvi only returns a 2nd, but it costs a 2nd to move Foegele.. What does Holland think? We just don’t know what those equations are for any of the potential cap clearing moves.
I don’t think either LT or Jon Willis have come right out and said it (or whether they’re thinking it for that matter), but I feel like their 20/21-man roster projections are essentially a ‘maybe it will sort itself out’ (injury) approach. And maybe that is the right play.
There is usually a bad back in TC whenever things need more time but it is only a delay tactic – never a solution.
I think Holland is still working on PKane to be honest. Still weeks before something needs to be done and I think he is all in if he can make that trade.
Now and again there’s something big, or something big on another team opens a trade option.
Yes, could be on Kane. There’s more smoke around that this summer than anything other than Puljujarvi.
Your going to trigger someone with the Patty Kane talk.
That’s exactly why Godot sees Holloway as the logical 4c . Because they have Kane , Nuge , Janmark & Foegele for LWer’s . Since Holloway doesn’t often play RW and has played center more often. It makes perfect sense.
You have to see Nuge as a LW and McLeod ready as 3C in order for that to make sense. I don’t like Nuge’s shoulders going into the corners and I am not convinced McLeod is ready as 3C so for me this doesn’t really work.
Holland did say not long ago he would keep Holloway up if he couldn’t play a top 6 spot.
Lol wouldn’t keep him up rather
Not quite, he didn’t say he had to be top 6, he said he had to be top 12 – that is, playing every day – no in and out of the lineup. If he’s on the team, he’s playing.
I’ve always thought Nurse was the best comparable for Broberg (skillset, style, draft position, question marks).
As with Klefbom, their NHL results at age 20 look pretty similar:
Nurse
45. 2 SF% 41.7 GF% 45.6 xGF%
-5.5 SF%rel -6.1 GF%rel -6.7 xGF%rel
0.30P/60
Broberg
51.3 SF% 37.4 GF% 46.9 xGF%
+1.3 SF%rel -22.9 GF%rel -5.4 xGF%rel
0.65P/60
Nurse played 69 NHL games at 20 (vs. just 23 for Broberg), but he probably wouldn’t have for one of Holland’s Oilers teams.
Nurse spent his age 21 season in a depth role before becoming a 22+ minute a night top 4 (arguably 1st pair) defenseman at age 22, and has obviously built from there.
IMO Broberg is on a similar trajectory, and if at age 22/23 he gets to where Nurse was at age 22/23, then we will need to revisit the long over Zegras-Broberg conversation.
Nurse only played as many games as he did in his rookie season because Klefbom missed 50.
Yes, partly that. He ended up 2nd in total TOI for the D by the end of the year.
Holland has done a far better job bringing in depth to absorb those injuries and for the young guys to climb over. What was Broberg, the #9 or 10 D entering the year?
The most likely outcome based on career trajectory is at the age of 23 Zegras will be 30G+ 80P+ 1st line centre.
I invite you to re-read Wheeler’s analysis of the two players.
would not even be a second line center on the Oilers. moron
You may want to examine Draisaitl’s contract situation.
best value deal in the NHL
Nah…that’s MacKinnon and Makar is next.
Thing is, if Broberg becomes the stud #1D most of you are expecting, he will be getting a long term deal for more than Nurse due to cap inflation.
Wont be much left over for Draisaitl’s retirement contract.
I don’t think so.
Also, I don’t see most of us saying Broberg will become the “stud #1D”, but again, nothing you say is based on any truth. You just make it up, and when you get called out, you either move the goal posts or just go quiet until the next days thread. Pathetic.
Wheeler or Pronman?
Based on your infamously poor record of evaluating talent, have you ever actually read any analysis from Wheeler or anyone else?
Great
That isn’t the same thing as being a more impactful player
Tampa won without centres, got whalloped without Hedman
The Oilers have 2 great centres and haven’t won a Cup, yet
The only position more impactful than a dominant defenseman is a truly dominant goalie. Vas missed Hedman a lot
Dominant goalies are the most rare thing ever
The next best thing to a dominant D is a few really good D, if you can keep them all
Geez, a very well thought-out and informative original post but the thread absolutely ruined because the same poster comes in and post the same things as in EVERY OTHER THREAD that have all but nothing to with the MAIN POINT of the initial post.
Cratering discussion on JP’s post.
Just disrespectful to intentionally ruin people’s enjoyment and, essentially, making the likes of JP waste their time.
It will be interesting to see. Zegras has great hands and vision, isn’t real quick and is horrible defensively as many young centres are in the NHL when they start out. Other than the Detroit behind the net shot Zegras has shown he has offence that looks like it’s trending same as Roughly Ryan Nugent Hopkins at same age .. Zegras is not a speedie skater though and was minus – 21 last year. He’s a US kid with flash .. I’m not sure how many of these Flashie US kids will be signing long term deals with Canadian teams that draft them anyhow .. So most of us aren’t at all giving Zegras a second thought, although most of us hope he pans out, for the league, as flashie players are fun to watch, but it’s a tough league for centermen who can’t get some defensive upside figured out.
Wild with a steal of a deal – Steel for one-year at $825K.
Steel of a deal it was right there! 😉
The words were used with intent…..
Not really, IMO.
He is a Perlini-lite, minus the size and shot.
Comparing his numbers and cap hit to, say, Janmark and I would say that all-but no risk contract at $75K over league min for a 24-year old is a good bet – that’s just me though.
Bummer. I was hoping Edmonton would pick him up. Svechnikov, please.
Presuming health, Broberg should be an every day player in the NHL this season on merit – that is my “expectation” for him. That is a bit ahead of initial timeline as I had this year as a split AHL/NHL.
Broberg is 21 and will certainly have some struggles as he develops in to an every day NHL d-man – i don’t imagine its going to be smooth sailing all season long but i expect he’s going to develop through the year and, at times, even press for some top 4 minutes (and play them when injuries hit, etc.).
He is very much trending to be a top 4 d-man in the NHL and potentially even a first pairing d-man. Miles to go and 1 step at a time but this kid has many tools and his skating is elite – that goes a long ways to a high floor.
Speaking of prospects and the Condors, as I’m sure all know, given the Flames have moved their AHL franchise to Calgary, the Condors are in Alberta to play the Wrangles twice in January and twice in February.
As it turns out, none of the games conflict with Oilers games and I certainly plan on attending all four. I wonder if there are any here in Calgary (and/or any that may actually be interested in coming down from Edmonton) for perhaps a little outing? I know Bruce M. is contemplating.
Sun Jan 8 (noon) and Tues Jan 10 (6pm)
Thurs Feb 2 (6pm) and Fri Feb 3 (6pm)
I plan on attending all these games.
Something can be planned – if there is interest.
To be clear, I will take zero offence if there isn’t such interest – none.
I am planning to attend all the games – it would be fun to connect with Lowetiders.
Maybe Dutton?
Looks like we’ll be able to make something work.
We could actually organize and get tickets together or, of course, meeting up before and during intermissions at Duttons would likely work as well.
I am in for the weekday games (I work in Cowtown but go back to Edmonton on weekends).
I still believe that all the telegraphing of Broberg being the pick leading up to the draft was a smoke screen to try to entice Yzerman to pick him leaving Seider on the board. Remember the shock when Detroit picked Moritz? Twitterverse almost unanimously criticized the pick at the time. All the same, I look forward to seeing Bro excel and hopefully learn how to avoid injury and escape the huge hits he seems to frequently absorb.
I would note that he did seem to improve in the “hits taken” area in the AHL – early in the season, he got plastered with regularity but, through the season, he was able to retrieve and move the puck quicker, generally – at least to my eye.
His “hits taken/60” in the NHL were indeed only lower than Koekkoek, Niemo and Lagesson but I presume he will be able to develop in this area as well as the game slows down for him at the NHL level.
Possibly also an indication of some growth:
Broberg’s 1st stint with the team (Nov/Dec)
8GP 6.26 hits taken/60
His 2nd stint (Feb/Mar and one game in April)
15GP 5.18 hits taken/60
Maybe also notable that the team leaders by far (on the year) were Niemalainen (9.09/60) and Lagesson (9.73/60) (vs. Broberg at 5.62/60), who were the other most inexperienced players on the team. Lagesson actually reduced his hits taken/60 year over year btw (12.94 to 9.73).
If Broberg can handle 5-6 and develop into a 4-5 by years end on his ELC contract will be a boon for himself and the team. Everyone talks Woody this Woody that but where’s the love for Charlie. Dave is the one running the show on D. I can’t wait for Dave to have a full training camp with his D as well as Jack and Stuart between the pipes. Dave did one heck of a Job churning out D in Bakersfield to become NHL compendent.
Agree on Broberg and value for cap hit. 2 years of his ELC left, little doubt he’s going to out-perform his low cap hit (even if he hits some of his bonuses this year and creates an penalty for next year).
Also, considering it seems unlikely that he’ll put up box-cars along the lines of, say, Bouchard, his next contract is likely to be somewhat low as well, maybe even multi-years, etc.
This player is going to provide big value for cap for years.
Also, I think Manson gets his due – often mentioned (positively).
Thank you for doing the work and providing the splits.
2 players on LT’s list exceeded their NHLE and became superstars. Excellent players show up quick and dont stop.
Big year for Holloway and Broberg. Hopefully one or both step in at some point this season and make a positive impact / exceed expectations.
Broberg is a 21 year old defenseman who is trending in the right direction. The debate over who Holland should have drafted is moot at this point as it won’t change anything. The sky is the limit for this kid so let’s not banish him to the netherworld because he’s not the second coming of Bobby Orr.
No one thought he was going to be like Makar or Seider, they’re very rare, so I don’t get the criticism the young man gets.
The team overall has solid pieces moving forward. A good blend of vets, younger players, and some looking to prove their worth. One would think that after the DoD that the fanbase would be grateful for where the team is.
I think it’s far from a foregone conclusion Zegras will have the better career than Broberg. Rushing Zegras vs slow playing Broberg may have it looking that way right now, but there is a ton of blacktop to go. Opportunity and ice-time to date have a lot to do with the results we are seeing from Zegras.
Well said. The league is aware of Zegras and may be better prepared to deal with his play. Plenty of guys have started out on heaters and then petered out after a few seasons.
https://www.nhl.com/player/mathew-barzal-8478445
No need to travel.
https://www.nhl.com/player/sam-gagner-8474040
I have no idea what kind of career Zegras will have but one year in the NHL seems premature for definitive announcements. As others have said forwards tend to start faster than dmen – and goalies all look like wasted picks in the early years based upon the criteria the freelance prognosticators use.
Let’s re-visit next summer.
Exactly. 2 completely equal prospects can have completely different seasons (line mates, PP/PK time, defensive expectations) let alone at different positions.
A similar relevant comparison would be the 2018 NHL draft with Bouchard and Farabee (left shot 6 foot 180lb forward from New York).
Here are their seasons since draft:
Bouchard:
d+1: 16G-37A-52 points in 45 OHL games. Killed the playoffs (AHL and CHL). C
d+2: 7 -29 -36P in 54 AHL games.
d+3: 6G-11A-17P in 23 SHL games and 2G-3A-5P 14 NHL games
d+4: 12G-31A-43P in 81 NHL games including 3G-6A-9P in 16 playoff games
Farabee:
d+1: 17G-19A-36P in 37 NCAA games
d+2: 8G-13A-21P in 52 NHL games including 3G-2A-5P in 12 playoff games
d+3: 20G-18A-38P in 55 NHL games (prorates to 30G-27-57 in 82)
d+4: 17G-17A-34P in 63 NHL games (prorates to 22-22-44 in 82)
I think this follows a semi common pattern where a forward can spike early and struggle to sort out his place where the defender takes time but spikes higher. If you were looking at these two players after their d+3 season you may end up thinking Farabee is an easy choice based of box cars but I wouldnt trade Bouchard for him in a million years. Hopefully this follows suit with Broberg.
great comparable. and yes i agree, i would not trade bouche for farabee in 100 yrs
Broberg isn’t being slow-played. He is arriving right on schedule. Draft+4. For a euro D who stays in Europe for two years.
godot10
Reply to innercitysmytty
August 30, 2022 11:33 am
Broberg isn’t being slow-played. He is arriving right on schedule. Draft+4. For a euro D who stays in Europe for two years.
I would even suggest slightly ahead of schedule given his NHL games last season (and how he popped in the AHL in yr 1).
I think it’s not only possible but likely Bro will be a more dominant and impactful player than Zegras
The Leafs are a prime example. Lots of high skill hot shot forwards, can’t win diddly that counts for much so far. They don’t have the juggernaut D man or men
Cup winning teams have those D that play a lot in all situations and can tilt the ice the right way. Drive the flow of play whether they personally get a bunch of points or not. An opponent that can’t get a sniff for almost half a game (D TOI) has a much harder time winning and it takes a toll mentally
The Oilers now have a ton of firepower, but aren’t at the point where someone is creating the ‘quiet ice’ like MR CFP did. Here’s hoping we see it soon somehow
It’s FCP, remember!
Right!
Yeah, I wouldn’t be too quick to judge the Zegras vs Broberg debate. There are many examples of players who didn’t find their groove or even make the NHL until their Draft+3 or 4 season.
Recent Examples:
Roope Hintz, Conor Garland, Brandon Hagel, Rem Pitlick, Jason Robertson, Michael Bunting, Victor Olofsson, Devon Toews, Jake Guentzel, Pavel Buchnevich, Tyler Bertuzzi, Carter Verhaeghe, Dominik Kubalik, Will Butcher, JT Compher, MacKenzie Weegar, Adam Fox.
Hintz – Round 2 – #49
Garland – Round 5 #123
Hagel – Round 6 #159
Pitlick – Round 3 #176
Robertson – Round 2 #139
Bunting – Round 4 #117
And so on…
While teams do hit on picks later in the draft all the time, the expectations of a #8 overall pick are much different.
Take a look at the D selected in that range for the last 10 years and what you will find is almost without exception that they started early and thrived almost immediately.
Of course there are a couple of busts in that group but generally, and especially lately, they don’t take years to become impact players.
Sure, some do, and some don’t take off so quickly. Between 2013 draft and 2019 draft.
Six D who were drafted #6 to #15 and took a bit longer to establish themselves:
Nurse (#7 overall) didn’t make the NHL until his draft+3 and didn’t really come into his own until his draft+5 season. He’s now one of the top D in the NHL. Easily Top 32, I’d argue top 16 and even higher.
Broberg (#8 overall) had his draft+1 and draft+2 in the SHL (wisely spent COVID times in the SHL), then moved to his (D+3) first season on North American ice and was the 2nd highest scoring D under 21 in the AHL with .74pts/gp. He got a bit of NHL experience on a team with a pretty deep D. Keith has retired so that will open up opportunities for him. We’ll see how D+4 goes for him.
Bouchard (#10 overall) got a cup of coffee in both the NHL regular season and the AHL playoffs in his D+1, and dominated in the OHL. He played well in his D+2 in the AHL, then spent COVID D+3 in sweden with another short stint in the NHL. Last season, in his D+4, he dominated with 43 pts in 82 gp and 9 pts in 16 playoff games. I’d say he’s top 3 D in his draft class and could likely move into #2 ahead of Quinn Hughes as time goes on.
Noah Dobson (#12 overall) didn’t take off until last season, which was his Draft+4 season, even though it was his 3rd NHL season. He might also pass Hughes as time goes on and will challenge Bouchard for #3.
Josh Morrisey (#13 overall) didn’t make the NHL until his D+4 and had an okay season. He slowly improved since then. I’d say he became a solid D in his draft+5.
Ryan Pulock (#15 overall) didn’t really stick in the NHL until his D+5 season and has been quite good since.
Seven D drafted in the Top 5 who made it faster: #1 Dahlin, #1 Ekblad, #3 Heiskanen, #4 Byram (made it in D+3), #4 Makar, #4 Jones, #5 Hanifin.
Seven D drafted between #6 and # 15 who made it faster, usually in their D+2 or 3.:
#7 Hughes, #14 McAvoy, #9 Sergacheyev, #8 Werenski, #7 Provorov, #8 Ristolainen.Moritz Seider (#6 overall) in the same year as Broberg, went to the AHL, then was in the same league as Broberg (SHL) during COVID, he then joined the Wings in his D+3 without any competition to hold him back and lots of PP time. Seider is a great player and while I don’t think Broberg will reach Seider levels of offense, I think Broberg will start to close the gap.
These are the D who either haven’t established themselves yet or maybe won’t establish themselves:
Samuel Morin (#11), Haydn Fleury (#7), Julius Honka (#14), Jakub Zboril (#13), Olli Juolevi (#5), Jake Bean (#13 and looks okay), Cal Foote (#14). Fleury and Juolevi were misses.
Too early to tell:
Erik Brannstrom (#15), Adam Bvoquist (#8, he’s close but not sure he’ll ever be a minute muncher), Victor Soderstrom (#8), Cam York (#14).
In summary, it’s a mixed bag, but I don’t think this shows that if a player isn’t a 40 point minute munching top D by D+3, that they still can’t become that.
In summary, it’s a mixed bag, but I don’t think this shows that if a player isn’t a 40 point minute munching top D by D+3, that they still can’t become that.
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Nobody but HH thinks that but thanks for doing the work. 😉
He thinks? Wow, never thought…..
The expectations for Broberg were NOT altered because he was drafted 8th overall – there was no expectation that he’d play NHL games prior to the 2022/23 season. He is arriving slightly ahead of schedule given his season last year – which was real and damn close to spectacular vis-a-vis reasonable projections.
Ah, but you are forgetting the most important predictor of “success” – that attribute that we are forced to hear about daily…. That being NOT being drafted by the Oilers.
All non Oiler draftees are axiomatically “better” than any Oiler draft pick. All you need to do is manoeuvre the goalposts until the correct result is apparent.
Performance at an early OR late stage, defensive OR offensive capability, and most critically, being a player for Colorado, Vancouver, Calgary, Anaheim, St. Louis, Vegas, Seattle or Minnesota.
Broberg’s skating, size and skill set are such that in my opinion he is a lock, barring injury, of a lengthy career as a top four D. His upside is a top pairing D. That is good value for where he was drafted! He he is as good as his amateur coach believes we could very well have a number one D.
Yes, I’m not sure who believes “He’s a lost cause” except HH. He is our last high end defense prospect and his arrival could be very timely.
I hardly think he’s a lost cause. Merely that he was drafted far too high when some special players were still on the board.
It seems Holland was laser focused on him to the detriment of long term success.
Some have tried to claim, without evidence, that Holland reached for Broberg because he knew Klefbom was not coming back but that discounts the ability to make other moves.
For just one example, how beneficial might it be to have Zegras at #2C allowing Draisaitl to play wing with McDavid on a regular basis?
If Broberg tops out at 2LD, how difficult would it be to fill that hole by alternate means?
If Broberg projected as a legitimate #1D, this conversation would be moot but I haven’t seen any discussion of that and Holland signing Nurse to an 8 year contract at above market value suggests Holland doesn’t either.
Correct.
And further – a lot of the conversational disconnects around here seem to be based on what posters think a GMs job is.
Many think it is simply to have a plan and execute on it. By that measure, Holland is succeeding for the most part.
But some also believe that plan itself must be evaluated as to whether it is any good, and also the right plan at the right time.
I like where the squad is at today – but Holland’s plan did not include trying to win an SC last season. That was a mistake. Whether they win one this year or not doesn’t change that mistake either. One does not preclude the other.
Oilers made the semi finals and were too banged up in so many places the Avs were just too experienced and they win the cup so that’s hardly a bad team to lose to,
I will agree however that next season is a huge one.
You don’t go to war with Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen expecting to win it all. He had a choice. He made it. And again – I think that was his plan. It wasn’t the right one, but it was the plan.
As usual you have the entire NHL to pick and cherry pick and choose the top everyone at all times, while making the rest of the posters want to string you up to a tree.
Contrarian – you – love this attention and do anything to find more of it. Like a junkie you scour the hockey world for cannon fodder.
Broberg is a top 4 prospect. Please crawl back under your rock.
Every single word exactly in the right in place. Well said.
I do wonder if holland had some knowledge of klefboms nagging injuries, im sure this kind of thing gets discussed behind closed doors.
The fact is, having cost controlled dmen with size, mobility, and offensive talent is a HUGE advantage. Look at some of the plays bowen byram made for avs in the playoffs.
Zegras is being touted but his defensive game is horrific at this point in his career and he is awful in the faceoff dot. We already have a 60 point centre who cant win a faceoff (looking at u nuge)
If you look at the oilers depth chart.
Centre.
Mcdavid.
Draisaitl.
Nugent Hopkins.
Mcleod.
Ryan.
vs their left d chart.
Nurse
Kulak
Broberg
Samorukov
Koekkoek
Niemalainen
The argument is that zegras could play 2c and oilers could play drat with mcd.
However the team has had far more success when they played mcdavid and draisaitl running their own lines, championship teams are built with strong spines and i dont know that zegras playing as your 3c for the foreseeable future is more valuable than broberg likely passing kulak on the depth chart as soon as the end of this season and playing in that slot for the next decade.
The cost to aquire a 2ld is high, look at jakob chychrun (they allegedly want 3 first round assets)
So think of it as having zegras, chychrun.
Or having Broberg, Kane, Holloway, Bourgault, Schaefer.
my centre argument is formed around.
Mcd
Drat
Nuge
Mcleod
Being stronger than
Mcd
Nuge
Zegras
Mcleod
Nurse’s contract has nothing to do with Broberg’s career trajectory. By that reasoning Quinn Hughes shouldn’t have been signed to a ridiculous contract walking him directly to UFA with no UFA years purchased in order to allow for future Norris winner Brogan Rafferty’s projections.
I think Zegras would be the one moving to wing
some have tried to claim without evidence… that’s VERY rich coming from you lol… not surprised though
Agree with the first point – I mentioned in my post earlier this morning that his skating (along with other physical skills) likely creates a “high floor”.
He is going to be massive value over the next 5-7 years – 2 years of his ELC and given likely limited PP time and “guarded box-cars” his bridge deals will probably be very manageable while he develops in to that legit top 4 LD and possibly top pairing guy over the next 18 months to 3-4 years.
How can the Broberg pick be analyzed as a pick that is “a detriment to long-term success”. The pick was made with absolutely knowledge that it was going to be 2-3 plus years before the player played in the NHL and some legit high end prospects that would arrive early with impact would be left on the board.
The pick was 100% made with long term success in mind and a GM that values building a deep and strong defence core.