This is a graph I ran from 2016-2019 as I tracked three somewhat similar talents to Jesse Puljujarvi all down the line. Some exploded, some blossomed, but Puljujarvi didn’t do anything like score 34 goals or 39 assists or 84 points in those four seasons we stared at through the end of the last decade. JP flew to Oulu for year four, scoring well with Karpat in the Finnish Liiga. Who are JP’s comps in 2021-22?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer and what math tells us about his future
- Lowetide: Oilers’ opening night roster will be influenced by salary cap, waivers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ European, college and junior prospects for 2022-23
- Jonathan Willis: The Edmonton Oilers are rapidly approaching their “all-in” moment
- Lowetide: Why Oilers trading for Patrick Kane makes more sense at the deadline
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
JESSE PULJUJARVI’S COMPARABLES
- 2021-22 Jesse Puljujarvi, 23 (.554 points-per-game)
- 2019-20 Roope Hintz, 23 (.550 points-per-game)
- 2016-17 Victor Rask, 23 (.549 points-per-game)
- 2017-18 Alexander Kerfoot, 23 (.544 points-per-game)
- 2017-18 Elias Lindholm, 23 (.543 points-per-game)
- 2019-20 Jake DeBrusk, 23 (.538 points-per-game)
- 2015-16 Mikael Granlund, 23 (.537 points-per-game)
Some of these names are impressive, others on the way to outstanding and some are fading or have faded since age 23 season in the NHL. Taking all six names who are on the comp list, the average total for age 24: 72 games, 19-32-51, or .71 points-per-game. That’s even more aggressive than my ‘reasonable expectations’ for Puljujarvi (here) for the 2022-23 season.
The truth is, while I think Puljujarvi is worth more than his contract, the offers for him are likely too low to proceed. If Holland dealt this player for a third-round pick, many fans would be upset and the Oilers would be weakened (depending on return).
I read where Evan Rodrigues would be an easy, better and less expensive replacement, but we don’t know the cost of his contract, he had a career year at 28 that doesn’t resemble any part of his past, and his points-per-game in his career year (.524) is less than Puljujarvi’s age 23 season. Logic and reason suggest JP is the better bet.
Edmonton doesn’t have a young gunner who is NHL-ready pushing for the at-bats JP will receive this season. So, if Holland wants to trade him, I think the trade of Elias Lindholm to the Calgary Flames is a good template. Lindholm was dealt at the same age, in a major trade.
The Carolina Hurricanes dealt Lindholm (who was a center, and an offensive season similar to Puljujarvi’s at the same age) plus Noah Hanifan for Dougie Hamilton, Michael Ferland and the rights to Adam Fox. I think Holland would have to make a similar multi-player deal that included Puljujarvi, and I don’t think it’s there. Not now.
What might it look like? Well if Puljujarvi is going, then another talented young player, under control, would have to be included. I don’t believe Edmonton will trade Evan Bouchard (he is the future) or Kailer Yamamoto (Oilers can’t deal two right-wingers in the same deal) or Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway of Philip Broberg. Who does that leave? Xavier Bourgault and the 2023 first-round selection.
If you’re dealing the 2023 first, a rebuilding team would be the target. Chicago Blackhawks (Patrick Kane), Philadelphia Flyers (Cam Atkinson), Montreal Canadiens (Josh Anderson) and Seattle (Oliver Bjorkstrand) could be targets.
Would Chicago trade one year of Patrick Kane for the 2023 first-round pick and Jesse Puljujarvi? Would Ken Holland make that deal? Would you make that deal?
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy show, with a major CFL trade this morning, NFL previews, even some hockey news. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us and we’ll talk your texts at 10-1260, or you can tweet @Lowetide. Talk soon!
Samorukov spent the summer in Edmonton training (and his wife is in town with them) – they love Canada!
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-samorukov-looking-to-continue-his-stay-in-edmonton/c-335435730
Video evidence of the boys skating today:
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1565105470876315649
Bourgault and Holloway both looking slick and fast.
For those interested I can confirm that the players on the ice, based on my viewing of the video are:
1-Draisaitl
2-Philp
3-Fanti
4-Niemelainen
5-Kambeitz
6-Bourgault
7-Broberg
8-Holloway
9-Kemp
10-Tullio
11-Kesselring
12-Samorukov
13-Engaras
14-Desharnais (number not listed, looks like he will have #60 in camp)
15-Rodrigue
That’s some serious leadership being shown there by Draisaitl.
Yes and probably trying to get things ironed out for himself and his ankle
I’m a fan of Staples but I heard him say on Bob’s show that Samorukov would be the type of B prospect included in a Patrick Kane trade. I hope Sammy comes out guns blazing at camp and is the 7th d man but chances are he is put on waivers this fall. I can’t remember the last time an Oilers prospect was claimed on waivers. Anyone? I remember Walker and Forsberg the goalie and maybe Taylor Chorney. Anyways Sammy has no value since he will be available on waivers this year.
Who do you think is going to beat him out for a spot on the roster?
Personally I think he sticks.
As it stands right now he is probably on the team if he can make it through training camp without injury. With Broberg and Bouchard on the team though I think Holland will sign another veteran D man on a pto for a little insurance. This is a going for a cup year and too many rookies could be trouble.
Maybe. Its going to be a highly entertaining camp imo. And what is with the Virtanen on a PTO rumours that seem to be cropping up?
a big winger who can skate and his main problem to date has been work ethic?
Likely a guy that manson and woody can rehabilitate into a player. this is a guy that 3 years ago scored 18 goals.
he has been proven innocent in court
I think that Kris Russell could be brought back on a league min deal but that’s only if they can carry a full 23 man roster and run with 8D.
Holland sure does value veterans, veteran D and overall D depth but I think we wants to get a look at these 22-26 year old d-men and give them their chances.
I would be shocked if there isn’t an in-season D-acquisition as the deadline approaches.
I think there may be a Kris Russell signing too. I think there might be a 13-8-2 if they are able to run with 23.
Oh, for sure – I would be surprised if they didn’t go that way – well, with the current roster – trades can alter the path forward obviously.
Anton Forsberg, January 2021. 54 games, 2.88 .916 with Ottawa since.
Truth be told, Samorukov is a B prospect, isn’t he? Holloway, Bourgault, Broberg, those would be the A prospects, right?
I don’t think that Samorukov gets put on waivers in October but not solely due to the risk but because he makes the team on merit (over Koekkoek, Nimealainen and Deharnais).
With that said, if he was exposed to waivers, yes, i think he may just slide through – more famous names than he pass through each and every year in the days leading up to day 1.
I think Samorukov has some value but not a ton right now. From accounts, a couple of years ago, after being a top d-man for Russia at the WJC, multiple managers brought him up in talks. Multiple injuries since then have cratered his value (and, of course, the beginning of his NHL career).
Among LHD, it’s Broberg, Samorukov and then Niemelainen imo. So, if the choice is between Samorukov and Niemelainen, and it’s close, then Samorukov probably wins the day because he is waiver eligible. Or he’s traded, as was mentioned by Mr. Turnbuckle.
Agree completely. Its also probably two of those 3 are on the team given 4RD is Deharnais.
Waivers is certainly a factor but I believe Sammy has the inside line on merit. If he’s healthy, he’s likely to prove it.
Brendan Klak NHL
Only 14 RFAs remain:
Jason Robertson
Jake Oettinger
Sean Durzi
Alex Formenton
Barrett Hayton
Mikey Anderson
Kirby Dach
Rasmus Sandin
Cayden Primeau
Erik Brannstrom
Ryan McLeod
Nic Hague
Adam Ruzicka
Parker Wotherspoon
Offer sheets anyone?
Wild trade Dimitri Kulikov to Anaheim for future considerations.
Wild get cap space and make room for Calen Addison.
Guerin has done quite the job managing the cap.
$5.7 million in cap space despite carrying over $15 million in dead cap from the Parise/Suter buyouts.
You know that you’re spending too much time on this site when you realize that you haven’t heard Randle give details about his second breakfast for a few days. 😀
Guilty as charged.
I wonder if he’s okay. All of that bacon and eggs can’t be too good for the arteries.
But if he gets hospitalized, at least he’ll be under the watchful care of Nurse Ratched.
Someone called out Randle for posting too much.
He hasn’t posted since.
That’s too bad. I enjoy his posts.
Always in good humour.
Perhaps he is on holidays. Hope he’s back soon.
Jesse and Foegele and the 1st for Kane with half salary retained. Gets a bit closer to solving the cap issue too
4 minute interview with Holloway from a skate (I think at the Community Rink).
Mentioned that the wrist/hand was feeling much better near the end of last year which game him the ability to shoot more – hypothesis confirmed.
He also stated that its feeling much better now. Doesn’t have to tape it. No issues shooting – shootings fine now. Still some complications with full range of motion but it doesn’t effect his hockey or ability to shoot.
Faceoffs?
Never mentioned. I recall him taking one last season……. Of course, he seems MUCH closer to 100% now and intimated he is there.
Will be very interesting to see how he’s deployed at camp.
Thanks.
Got to watching now. His quote was:
“there’s still a little bit of complications with the full range of motion, but you don’t really need it too much for hockey, so” and he continued with a big smile.
That’s not full 100% confirmation he’s good to take faceoffs, but him saying the complications affected things he didn’t need for hockey, and his demeanour when answering the question, suggests to me the injury probably isn’t preventing it at this point. FWIW.
Ya, as I posted he said it isn’t affecting his ability to shoot or anything hockey related. I presume he’s essentially 100% – whether the org deploys him at center, at all or partially, is unknown.
He may have some residual nerve damage that effects finer motor skills but it appears the strength and basics required for hockey are fine.
Bourgault also on the ice in Edmonton today. He didn’t say he was 100% recovered but he didn’t skate at all at development camp so this is a good sign and he implied he’s rearing to go for rookie camp on two weeks.
Spent the summer in the gym in Montreal.
in the video posted of the skate it looks like
Samorukov (looking healthy and beastly)
Bourgault (filthy dangles galore)
Holloway (looks good and demonstrating his skating ability)
Niemo (very brief on screen)
Hamblin (i am pretty sure i spied him)
Skinner
Its mind-boggling to me how often Niemo is mentioned in posts, tweets, calls, text without mention of Samorukov.
Sammy had the roughest 2 shifts imaginable he got walked twice like a little school girl. Tippett should of given him another shift for the kids confidence. You already stated how this means nothing but the last thing a viewer seen of Sammy was him hanging his head like someone who was way in over his head. Niemo on the other hand has layed out some huge and nasty hits, some people like that form of agreessiveness enough for him to have a fan club. Blue Collar players will always be embraced in Edmonton from the Don Jackson’s and Kevin McClelland’s all the way to the Kassian’s and Kane’s of today.
Yup – those were very rough shifts and one couldn’t think of a tougher debut.
This viewer’s last viewings of Samorukov were being the Condors’ top d-men for close to two months, better than Niemo and Broberg.
Yup, Nimeo has laid out some huge hits – I like that aggressiveness but want it to come with better defence and overall hockey play.
Niemo laid out big hits but it came with his fair share of mistakes and goals against.
Niemo is no more aggressive or blue-collar than Samorukov – big hits are one part of aggressiveness (and something Samorukov is quite good at I might add).
Sammy’s Blue Collar as well, it’s do or die time if he has a bad camp maybe someone picks him on waivers maybe not. Every team has a Sammy maybe he’ll be more relaxed with Woody and Manson and play his game and makes the team out of camp.
Its not like he failed in camp last year – he wasn’t able to compete.
i think people disregard samourkov due to the 2 minutes he played.
What they likely do not take into account is how underwater niemo was in goal share, shot share, and expected goals last season despite his spectacular open ice hits.
I’d prefer Yamamoto in the deal rather than Puljujarvi.
Definitely.
I prefer Foegele.
Is that due to present utility or future value (trade or otherwise)?
Both
These are tough questions, LT. To the teams, it depends a lot on the details others have discussed: Is Jesse a problem? Would Kane push for Edmonton? What is the cost to deal with the cap hit? However, it’s a more fundamental question for a fan base: Do you go all in for one year or hope your long term investments will mature?
Kane is still a killer, but promises nothing in one year. I feel that as long as you think you can retain Jesse on a long term contract reflecting his counting numbers, I would keep him and hope we are successful enough to convince Draisaitl and McDavid they want to stay to play with the first round pick.
How does the rubric change if P. Kane is willing to extend at a team friendly discount?
What’s “team friendly” as even a $5MM AAV could be tough to fit in with Bouch’s raise coming – and I don’t see him signing a one-year deal.
I hear nonesense from guys like Spec who said yesterday there is no doubt Rodrigues is more established than Jesse……..
What?
He had 43 points in 82 games last year – his first year over 30 points at 29 years of age (and his most common linemates were Letang, Marino, Kapanen and Crosby – top 6 minutes). That career year PPG is less than Jesse this past season.
In any event, I would LOVE to add Rodrigues and, at this point, he should come in at $1.5MM or under (I think). He is NOT a Jesse replacement but the perfect of a middle 6 RW this team needs – Jesse, Kailer, Rodrigues as top 3RW and D. Ryan as 4th – backfill with Bourgault in-season once/if ready – Boom!
Of course, no cap space but that is the Foegele out and replaced with Holloway, if they can fit the $925K in or Benson if they need a league min $750K.
Kane/McDavid/Jesse
Nuge/Drai/Yamo
Hyman/McLeod/Rodrigues
Benson/Holloway/Ryan
Shore (Malone)
OR
Kane/McDavid/Jesse
Hyman/Drai/Yamo
Janmark/Nuge/Rodrigues
Holloway/McLeod/Ryan
Benson (Shore/Malone)
Deploy the top 3 right wingers as you see fit.
Spec should seriously stop embarasssing himself lol
Nothing earth-shattering here but Tommy G. mentioned a number of the local guys have been skating in Edmonton – Skinner, Benson, Savoie and Drai has recently joined.
We also know that Deharnais is in Edmonton getting ready.
Its coming!
I would not want to trade that 1st rounder as this upcoming draft is projected to be one of the deepest in recent memory.
Unless the return was astronomical of course. All of those assets for Kane doesn’t necessarily do it for me.
I haven’t heard 2023 was deep, moreso that we haven’t seen elite talent at the top like it since 2015 with 97 and Eichel, or 2004 if you count Ovi and Malkin as the better 1-2. 2020 was exceptionally deep according to pundits and it looks to be the case so far.
There is always a crowd calling next year’s draft “the deepest in recent memory”. I don’t doubt that you read it somewhere, but I have learned to take that statement with a grain of salt. 2011 and 2012 were called deep drafts here on LT during the preceding summer and season, and I wouldn’t call them that in hindsight.
I think it’s a hard thing to predict.
Eventually the Oilers need to use draft picks to acquire assets that will help them push for a championship. I would argue that now is that time.
Teams are hanging on to their 2023 picks pretty tightly, this is indeed supposed to be a very deep draft.
Draft References:
https://theathletic.com/3470428/2022/08/08/top-nhl-prospects-draft/?source=user_shared_article
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/scouts-analysis-2023-nhl-draft-class-looking-elite-after-hlinka-gretzky-cup/sn-amp/
https://thehockeywriters.com/2023-nhl-draft-rankings-early-top-15-baracchini/
Thank you for posting those references.
Isn’t everyone sick and tired of talking about Jesse Puljujarvi yet ?
Yup, same old, same old.
Just wait until the trade. 😉
It’s a topic that’s been beaten to death, isn’t it?
Kinda like this…
https://gfycat.com/pinkgeneraljaeger-dead-horse
The truth is , the offers for Puljujarvi are likely too low because , in reality , he isn’t worth more than his contract and further more it’s only for one year . Holland now finds himself between a rock and a hard place . I wish he would have signed MacLeod and waited to sign Puljujarvi . But that couldn’t happen because Jesse had arbitration rights . The guy is a headache and every NHL GM knows it . There that’s my rant . Have a nice day .
JP is RFA after this year so it’s not a one and done! Holland did not walk him to UFA on this contract. In his case there are sufficient mistakes made by all parties to go around! It is not fair to lay it all at JP’s feet. Barring health problems/injuries his value will increase exponentially!
Based on responses, no. I always wonder what will send people over the edge, where they just can’t bring themselves to comment. It’s been almost 20 years.
“And you may say to yourself, my God, what have I done?”
I’m more sick and tired of talking about Patrick Kane…..
I’d rather talk about the guy who’s third in league points (no points for guessing who he’s behind lol) over the last five years than someone who has not yet, and possibly will not ever, live up to his draft pedigree.
Kane on this team is exponentially more impactful than Jesse. And I’m a fan of the Bison King. It is what it is.
Sure, fair enough.
One player is an Oiler, under contract for this season and reasonably likely Connor McDavid’s RW.
The other player, while being an elite player for a decade and arguably the best US born player even, is not an Oiler reasonably likely never will be an Oiler.
It’s a risky expensive play but PK could put them over the top?
Is a 1st and a weird player possibly (whom I like) worth more than a Cup, if it works?
Sound like it’s a tempting thought for Holland. I waver but keep going back to you have to try it. They have their goalies, if they are keeping this D group adding another elite forward is the push. If it’s puck movers in back it can’t hurt having more high end skill to finish
And the lemmings will rush to skill up and go all in on less tough more skilled D again. Everyone will say the Avs were dumb to sign Manson, and they’ll win it the year after
Or at least I’ll do that
This team needs to better its defence and defensive play. That’s what wins in the playoffs.
Lets mix it up a bit.
What are everyone’s thoughts on the Hall trade for Larsson?
The Jason Arnott trade hurt bad a 6 foot 5 Centre that played for 16 more years after he was traded for Guerin who I also loved watching. Arnott was a beast down the middle
If it wasn’t for Jesse, half of the media in Edmonton would be unemployed by now lol Spec, Jimbo, just embarassing themselves lol
Kane is a great player, but for my money I’d rather pursue JT Miller. Cheaper cap hit, cheaper acquisition cost, greater positional flexibility, more physicality, better defensively and better production last year.
Miller played 2:05/GP on the PK last year, Kane just 0:02.
Here’s their 5v5 scoring comp:
http://naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&p1=8474141&p2=8476468&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
Did you know Kane had an 88.08% offensive zone start percentage last year? That’s just insane.
76% at 5v5 (like a Sedin!). Guess you were including PP time? (the link doesn’t show zone starts)
Change “Individual” to “On Ice” and you’ll get the numbers down at the bottom. Note offensive zone starts and offensive zone faceoffs are different entries.
Interesting. So lots of shift changes into the offensive zone (and tons on Ozone starts even in the traditional way).
88%!!!! Those stats are Sphagnum-esque!
Would he be less?
I like your idea
That’s a lot of future for one superstar season. I might do it.
Like our host and a number of posters have alluded to acquiring Kane makes far more sense at the trade deadline due acquisition cost in assets out. Also there is nothing saying that Bourgault might not be that first shot RW scorer the team needs by midway through the season! Kane’s acquisition at this time smacks of panic and desperation.
I think Stauffer pretty much nailed most of this.
For me, 130 is the reasonable high end for McDavid as he’d be the first player since Mario in 95/96 to hit that. 150 is a bit unreasonable for me.
Apx 35G and 60P is reasonable for Kane – 50 goals is so far removed from his career norms. I know, McDavid but 50G as an expectation is not reasonable for me.
Bouch should indeed approach 60 points.
I think Jesse could pop but the rest is right there.
__________
Stauffer:
Oilers Projections 2022-23:
(82 Game Sked)
McDavid: 50-76-126
Draisaitl: 51-65-116
Kane: 36-25-61
Hyman: 27-28-55
RNH: 21-33-54
Bouchard: 15-39-54
Yamamoto: 22-23-45
Puljujarvi: 17-25-42
Barrie: 10-31-41
Nurse: 9-28-37
McLeod: 12-18-30
Foegele: 14-13-27
So he thinks Puljujarvi will score LESS this year? That’s somewhat counterintuitive, I think.
14-22-36 last year.
Stauffer is projecting per 82. Puljujarvi’s 14-22-36 was over 65 games, which projects to 18-28-46 per 82. So Stauffer is projecting Puljujarvi to score less this season.
Per 82 game season, so presumably he’s including some projected missed time (and Puljujarvi has had injuries over his career).
I think also it wouldn’t be difficult to project him running in place or even losing a little offense with E. Kane there for a full year.
If Puljujarvi were to slot on the 3rd line, even for a chunk of the year his totals would almost certainly suffer.
Doesn’t Kane play mostly LW?
Indeed, but he is another top 6 forward that was added mid-season last year.
If Woodcroft ends up playing McLeod at 3C and Nuge in the top 6 then someone gets bumped out (as Puljujarvi often did in the playoffs). Kane also affects PP time.
There was an immediate drop in Puljujarvi’s TOI when Kane arrived last season.
Puljujarvi’s total TOI last 5 games pre-Kane and first 5 after Kane:
16:48
18:22
21:43
21:52
19:18
—– (Kane lands)
14:42
14:58
14:19
14:03
11:46
The 5 post-Kane games were the last 5 of Tippett’s tenure. Woodcroft bumped Puljujarvi back up to 16:13 in his first game as coach (which coincidentally was Puljujarvi’s average TOI on the year as a whole). Puljujarvi’s average under Woodcroft was 14:53/game (vs. 16:57 under Tippett).
If you look pre- and post-Kane (probably more relevant than who was the coach, in hindsight) you get:
Pre-Kane 17:21/game
Post-Kane 14:43/game
I see, thanks.
Edit: I just took a look at his tweet where he posted this and he says over an 82 game schedule – not that the players will play all 82 games so I think that is ambiguous at best.
Nuge finally cracks 50 points…’bout time! 🙂
In 2022/2023:
Yamamoto: 22/20-42
Puljujarvi: 23/27-50
I’d make that trade today, but not at the deadline.
I make that deal the moment it is offered. Probably sometime in February.
Holland dealt with Bowman on the Keith trade the new G.M of the Hawks Davidson is just a kid at 33. I’ll wager that Holland doesn’t know him to well.
Davidson was the special assistant to the GM in CHI as far back as 2011, and was also the Assistant GM for a spell. Odds are they’re not unfamiliar to one another.
Source:
https://www.capfriendly.com/staff/kyle-davidson
Why would that matter?
Lots of deals are done by G.M’s that are familiar or more with each other. Calgary dealt Bennett then a little over a year later the big trade with Florida. Staying with Calgary on the Hamilton etc trade for Lindholm etc that trade doesn’t happen if Peters isn’t the recent Head Coach of Carolina. I’ll have to look but a lot of G.M’s only trade with the same 3-4 teams over their tenure as G.M’s.
I think NMC’s change that dynamic though, no?
Part of the fun of being an Oiler fan is hoping they talk Puljujarvi into not bolting the team, followed by hoping he breaks out like the top drafted pick he was oh so many years ago.
Lets hope he makes it.
I want PJ to have his first perfectly solid season, on ice off and in the media, sign long then explode. Nothing would help the Oil more than a 200ft disruptor who could pot 30 goals, signed value through his prime.
Just don’t know if he’ll ever be that guy. For the Oil.
Ideally JP blossoms this year
If not, he is traded near the deadline for required assets
Trading him now is shortsighted – unless a similar player returns (or package as LT outlined)
I don’t understand any sense of urgency on this one
I agree that there’s no urgency to move Puljujarvi – he’s got too much upside to be moved strictly for cap purposes. People seem to forget that he scored 10 goals and 23 points in his first 28 games last season – a pace of 29 goals and 67 points per 82 – before being beset by Covid and injuries. Despite missing 17 games and going into prolonged slumps later in the season he still finished with 36 points, a full season pace of 45. That’s not nothing, and good value at $3M.
Not to mention he finished top-5 in the league in CF% Rel, SF% Rel, GF% Rel and xGF% Rel among forwards. That’s difficult to do when you’re being compared to guys like McDavid and Draisaitl.
The only part of the post that I question is how much impact Covid and injuries had on his lack of production in the second half. There are endless examples of players who return from injury or play through injury and their production is the same or very close to pre-injury levels. I’m sure there was *some* effect but I don’t believe that’s what caused his production to disappear.
From accounts, Jesse struggled with the effects of Covid much longer than many/most. This could be just talk and excuses but, of course different people get effected differently and, yes, even vaccinated athletes in their 20s sometimes get hit harder.
Also, lets not forget his LBI (unofficially a high ankle sprain) and the accounts are that it effected his skating pretty much the rest of the year. I don’t think he is quite developed enough to pull a Leon and become an elite stationary player, lol.
I would not trade JP for Kane. Jesse was great in the first half of last year before illness and injuries set in. He could be a long term difference maker as we pursue to cup.
If he won’t resign here and this is his last year, I might consider a trade of Samourukov, Puljujarvi, Barrie and the 2024 1st for Chychrun from Arizona. We get 3 years of cap-friendly D depth and skill.
It would also free up roughly $3M in cap space with which I would add McLeod and Rodriguez (or someone like him)
Conversely, you could also trade for Chychrun by putting Foegele, Puljujarvi and the 2024 first on the table – you would probably have to send a young D prospect as well. Less cap savings and blocks the path for Broberg, Samourukov and others.
If the cap rapidly expands in 2 to 3 years, re-signing Chrychrun might not be an issue
McDonagh didn’t really block Sergachev’s path in Tampa.
Broberg, like Sergachev, can play either side.
Broberg can play either side with effectiveness in the SHL – we don’t know if that’s the case in the NHL and, of course, given how common that is in Europe, there are countless cases of that ability not translating to the NHL.
I do recall him actually looking quite good in his game on the right side in the NHL this past season – good arrow but a small one.
Beyond the contract, I don’t get the love for Chychrun.
Could be his fancies are being overwhelmed by the quality of team/mates but he doesn’t jump out as a guy I want on my team.
Yup, the puckiq.com numbers on Chychrun are eye opening. When the coach is running Shayne Gostisbehere harder against elites, that’s a tell.
For me, Chychrun is the most over-rated acquisition target for Oilers’ fans in quite some time. I would like to add him, sure, but he has warts and recent regression in his game and the injury history and risk makes some of the trade proposals wild, to me.
He has the best possession numbers on his team year in and out.
Not sure where you think you are even going to find another bonafide top 4 for $4 million for the next three years?
Jesse Puljujarvi also has high end possession numbers – some of the best in the league. Not saying that Chychrun isn’t a top 4 d-man but possession numbers on their own don’t tell us much, right?
I mean, if Shane G. plays tougher comp, what are we measuring with those numbers?
I would, I think. Part of the consideration being that Puljujarvi is only under control for 2 more seasons, vs. the 1 for Kane.
I suspect Holland would as well, less sure about Chicago.
Chicago’s decision would probably be made primarily based upon what Kane tells them regarding where he would agree to be traded to.
Yes, that would definitely have an effect. Though as Pretendergast notes, they’re not going to get him for free (and Puljujarvi + 2023 1st is less than what Stauffer has been guessing, though the missing piece would be the least valuable).
Of course, 100%, that trade would/should be done in a second. I’m all about ensuring continued success over time, and think Jesse can be a big part of that but upgrading from Jesse to Kane for the cost of a 1st rounder is somewhat of a no-brainer.
Of course, is that cost not increased with the Hawks retaining 50% and then another asset for a third team to slice that 50% in half?
P.S. I can’t logically say that Kane isn’t a big upgrade over Jesse but we do lose “something” in Jesse in his two-way play (which simply keeps the puck going the right way, etc., etc.). There is a reason that goals don’t go in against the Oilers as much with Jesse out there – turning over pucks, behind the high guy in the offensive zone, good defensive zone positioning, creating turnovers – that all gets/keeps the puck going the right way).
Yes I do it, 92 point player on an awful team with a long history of top 5 player production. Players of Kane’s calibre age well. It is known the very best in the world, even when they’re past their prime, are still damn good players. 33 is not a fossil, especialy if it’s for 1 year I think you get almost full quality. Even at 70-80 points that’s worth a 1st plus a roster player and prospect.
I still think it’ll take more unless Kane severely curbs his market at the deadline. Plus Holland has an MO of not fleecing anyone. Even if he says I’ll only go to EDM (would be very surprising) I think Holland pays ‘fair’ value. What, you want him to get Kane for free?
What’s with age well, you are paying a premium price for a rental! You do that deal if it’s a draft choice not a roster player and a first rounder plus. This is particularly true if Kanes list is a short one.Mortgaging the future when your team core is just entering their prime years is stupidity on steroids.
What do you mean whats with age well? Kane is still an elite hockey player.
I don’t see losing a roster player (let’s say JP) as mortgaging the future when there are players currently in the system that can reasonably fill that ‘JP’ scoring ‘void’ by the time that rental is gone. One of Holloway, Borgault, Savoie, Lavoie, Petrov needs to make it by deadline 2024. I like those odds and am willing to push in the chips for Stanley. Kane moves the needle enough to do that imo. There is ‘JP’ cover coming.
Not that I ever said JP was the one to move.
My humble apologies as I was under the impression you were onboard with moving JP for the Kane acquisition. The reason I think an early acquisition of Kane is a bad idea the likely requirement of added assets out to get cap compliant. Our right shot players coming up are Lavoie and Bourgault with Lavoie becoming suspect due injury. Right shot players regardless of position are fewer in number making them somewhat more valuable. Backhand passing or receiving with a curved blade under pressure is much harder than on your forehand.
I like JP, although not as much as some, but having that dynamic of a player in Kane for the first of several Stanley Cup years, I don’t see how you can pass on that. We’d be talking well over 300 goals and most like a +70 in the GF-GA department.
And if Edmonton won it all, it would set us up nicely for the next years of useful UFA’s to come here for the next chance at the grail at reduced salaries. Which I believe we are starting to see now.
I couldn’t login fast enough…
Yes I make that deal, no question. Especially given you didn’t mention any salary issues coming our way to deal with.