This is the first “Riesen to Believe” from late summer 2007. As you can see, my brilliance 15 years ago shone as brightly as it does today. I gave Sam Gagner no chance to make the team out of camp (he made it), Rob Schremp four percent (he played in game four), Andrew Cogliano 10 percent and Tom Gilbert 50 percent (both made it). Should have called the blog Nostradamus based on that kind of accuracy.
Ahead, you will read the second ‘Riesen to Believe’ along with a sincere apology and the New Order.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Making the early call on Edmonton Oilers’ 2018 draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ most likely recalls from AHL Bakersfield in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Is the Edmonton Oilers’ 2022-23 lineup balanced?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer and what math tells us about his future
- Lowetide: Oilers’ opening night roster will be influenced by salary cap, waivers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ European, college and junior prospects for 2022-23
- Jonathan Willis: The Edmonton Oilers are rapidly approaching their “all-in” moment
- Lowetide: Why Oilers trading for Patrick Kane makes more sense at the deadline
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
GOALTENDERS
- Jack Campbell, 30. In the last three seasons, Campbell’s five-on-five save percentage (.920) ranks inside the top 20 overall among regular goalies. If he can start 50 games and post something north of .915, both reasonable goals, Edmonton has a great chance to win the division. 100 percent
- Stuart Skinner, 23. Has a .913 SP in the NHL over 13 games and .920 in the AHL. The Oilers are going to give a rookie they drafted a full NHL chance. It’s very rare. 95 percent
- Calvin Pickard, 30. Played 43 AHL games (.918) last season and will be the first recall. 5 percent.
- Ryan Fanti, 22. Ken Holland signed a rare college free agent and he’s intriguing.
LEFT DEFENSE
- Darnell Nurse, 27. Key blue will play 25 minutes a game and deliver a solid two-way game versus elites. 100 percent
- Brett Kulak, 28. Kulak has great wheels, can defend, does not play a pronounced physical game, has some offensive flair. I think that’s a completely reasonable skill set for this team. 100 percent.
- Ryan Murray, 28. Veteran two-way defender was a terrific late summer addition, gives the entire defensive depth chart a lift if he can stay healthy. 90 percent.
- Philip Broberg, 21. Mobile rookie with impressive talent, pressure eased by Murray signing. 90 percent.
- Dmitri Samorukov, 23. Huge training camp for rugged blue, waiver eligible and injury prone. 50 percent
- Slater Koekkoek, 28. Veteran will need to show he’s ready in camp and even that might not be enough to land an NHL job. 20 percent.
- Markus Niemelainen, 24. Fine open-ice hitter, has size and good mobility. Some coverage gaps. 10 percent.
RIGHT DEFENSE
- Cody Ceci, 28. Fine two-way defenseman settled in and played some of his best hockey in Edmonton. The Oilers need him to do it again. 100 percent.
- Evan Bouchard, 22. Bouchard’s trajectory is strong and this season should see a big step forward. 100 percent.
- Tyson Barrie, 31. His performance later in the regular season and in the playoffs was impressive. The acquisition of Murray does impact his chances of being traded 80 percent.
- Vincent Desharnais, 26. A giant defenseman (6.07, 229) whose PK work in the minors was impressive. 30 percent.
CENTER
- Connor McDavid, 25. Transcendent talent, human cheat coat, shock and awe over 200 feet of ice. 100 percent.
- Leon Draisaitl, 26. The big man should be good for 50+ goals again in 2022-23. 100 percent.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 29. He has a 53 percent goal share five-on-five over the last three seasons. 100 percent.
- Ryan McLeod, 22. Showed impressive ability in all three game states after Jay Woodcroft took over the coaching. 100 percent.
- Devin Shore, 28. Bubble. He scored 5-6-11 in 49 games a year ago. 70 percent.
- Greg McKegg, 30. Bubble. He scored 2-3-5 in 43 games a year ago. 50 percent.
- Brad Malone, 33. Bubble. He’s a solid AHL center. 30 percent.
- Noah Philp, 23. Much is unknown. He’s a RH center in a pool of lefties, that’s an advantage. 5 percent.
LEFT WING
- Evander Kane, 31. The big man is going to get 550 at-bats with McDavid. Lucic, Maroon, or something more? 100 percent.
- Zach Hyman, 30. He posted one of the best ‘first free-agent seasons on a long contract’ I’ve seen from an Oilers player. 100 percent.
- Warren Foegele, 26. He scored well enough (12-14-26 in 82 games) for a third-line winger but the five-on-five goal differential (37-54, 46 percent) was a little shy. 80 percent.
- Mattias Janmark, 29. He’s a solid veteran role player, having scored 9-16-25 in 67 games one year ago. 100 percent.
- Dylan Holloway, 20. He’s blocked to my eye for an NHL job unless someone gets traded before the start of the season. 40 percent.
- Tyler Benson, 24. He scored 29, 1-1-2 one year ago with the Oilers and that was his NHL chance. 10 percent
- James Hamblin, 23. A speed merchant, I can see a mid-season recall if there’s a need for zoom. 10 percent
RIGHT WING
- Kailer Yamamoto, 23. He scored 20-21-41 in 81 games during the 2021-22 season, trade worry only barrier. 90 percent.
- Jesse Puljujarvi, 24. He scored 14-22-36 in 65 games last season, and owned a 65 percent goal share at five-on-five. Trade worry only barrier. 80 percent.
- Derek Ryan, 35. Oilers probably want him more as a fourth-line winger than a third-line player. He does the tough work (PK, mentor) and is an underrated player. 70 percent.
- Xavier Bourgault, 19. One of the players we should be watching closely at training camp. 10 percent.
- Seth Griffith, 29. I don’t see him as an NHL regular at this stage but he could play with the Oilers this season. 10 percent.
APOLOGY
Reading through the comments last night it became clear that many of you value this blog as much as I do, and honestly that was a good reminder for me. I had planned to close the comments section, it’s simply too much work and we have a lively enough conversation that things should be monitored. A recent event drove this home for me, I knew there was trouble brewing so got out in front of it and made sure several key words wouldn’t get through. No harm, but I’m not always available to drop in here. This is serious stuff.
So the plan was to shut down the comments. However, some of the comments pointed out I was doing it on short notice and it was clear many of you have formed friendships on here that are completely independent of me or the posts I deliver. Also, closing off the comments section appears to make the blog itself inaccessible, I didn’t know that until last night.
So, the comments section remains, and an apology for the heartache last night. I will tell you all of the comments were appreciated and I took them to heart. Conclusion: It isn’t for me to run this thing off the rails, I won’t do it, or attempt to do it, again. If you choose to go elsewhere, then so be it and I understand. If you choose to remain, I will attempt to make the experience more enjoyable.
Here’s what I am going to do, and some of you are going to be unhappy. I have created a special ‘mod’ list of posters who will see their posts ‘under moderation’ and I will publish or send them to spam when I have a chance. I’ve also increased the number of ‘key words’ that will get your posts help up in moderation.
The biggest problems we have are in the morning, when some posters simply overrun the blog with dozens of posts on varying subjects, and than later, usually after supper, when trolling and baiting occur. So, I’ve taken those elements out of the rotation. I reserve the right to add to the list of mod posters, and will tell you that bullying, targeting other posters and over the top putdowns will not be tolerated.
If you land on the mod list, there’s a reason. Also, if I notice a new individual who posts like a previous individual, that person will join the list. It’s a bad turn for some, I’m sincerely sorry for any hurt feelings, which I do expect. If you want to email or dm me, feel free.
NEW for The Athletic: Making the early call on Edmonton Oilers’ 2018 draft haul
https://theathletic.com/3565416/2022/09/05/edmonton-oilers-draft-bouchard-mcleod-2018/
I can’t recall when do you make predictions on individual stats and games played.
‘Reasonable expectations’ are already out but at The Athletic:
Team:
https://theathletic.com/3438407/2022/07/22/edmonton-oilers-2022-23-reasonable-expectations/
Individual players:
https://theathletic.com/3525779/2022/08/22/edmonton-oilers-reasonable-expectations-2022-23/
McDavid at 126 points in 77 games is reasonable.
I think he is going to blow past 130 though. I think some fans feel (Mostly opposing ones) that 20/21 was a one off, but McDavid was very unlucky in 21/22.
8.30 on-ice shooting percentage at 5 on 5 last season. His second lowest in his career was 9.93. He typically sits in the 10-11 range. Last season was the only year in Mcdavid’s career that he underperformed his actual goals vs his expected goals on-ice.
His percentages on the powerplay were no great shakes compared to his career average either.
By the corsi/fenwick/shots per 60, last year was actually McDavid’s best in his career. If the man stays healthy and gets regression to the meat, he is going to lap the field in the scoring race this season.
I don’t “expect” 130 for McDavid but that’s my goal for him at the upper end – would be the first since Mario in 1995/96…..
I guess I’ll start by saying I agree with you that McDavid’s got a real good chance to top 130 this year. I’ll follow with why, from a higher up view.
If you throw the last 2 seasons and last 2 playoffs together, McDavid has had 265 points in his last 156 games. That’s 139 points per 82 games.
If you take the last 38 regular season games from this season under Woodcroft (and with Kane), McDavid had 62 points in 37 games. That’s 137 points per 82 games.
If you take all the Woodcroft games, regular season and playoffs. Well that’s not even fair at all (but anyway, that would work out to 147 points per 82 games).
Your point about his on ice SH% being very low is a really great one too, but even without that recovering he’s got a good shot at 130 I think.
Another way to look at it is that this will be the first season since his rookie year where McDavid is playing with fully “seasoned” line-mates >90% of the time.
We know he and Leon are fire yes. But a full year of Nuge, Hyman, Kane, Yamo and JP who are all in the fully formed stages of careers offensively will be a boost.
Cashing chances will be a requirement to stay on the line and that’s where we need Yamo and JP to take a reasonable step forward. A reasonable step forward should be good for an additional 10-15 points for McD on the conservative side of things.
I’m also looking forward to a few different looks on the PP this year. LT made a great point that PP swoons last year happened when The Witch was injured and I agree but there’s enough horses here now to shake things up on occasion and that should give opposing teams fits.
Should he decide to go Supernova he could take a shot at 150. If he goes Top Three he’ll take a shot at 175.
I’d also think a 50 goal season is coming this year. All the Greats crack that at least once in a career and they also sweep the offensive awards once.
As always we wait.
Test.
Hello All,
First time poster, been reading this blog daily over the last decade plus. Thoroughly enjoy your articles Lowetide. I also read a good portion of the comments daily as I enjoy others perspective. The thought of losing the comments section has spurned me to get a post in incase this goes sideways again.
Keep up the good work Allan!
Eh. I used to post here a lot. I think Lowetide is basically a god. If you’ve ever tried to come up with new content for some kind of blog or whatever on a more or less regular basis you know how difficult it is to go from “inspired now and then” to “post something interesting every single day”
It’s a gift. A rare gift. LT has done it for years, and it’s just incredible.
Me, though, nope, I’m not feeiing it. I’ve posted before that I hate the likes/don’t like system. LT I guess loves it. It’s just become the norm, over most things these days. I hate it. I feel like people should be able to talk to each other and have the quality of their arguments and the actual give and take of ideas be most important.
But, well, whatever. Best of luck to you all. I wish there was a less harsh and more friendly place to discuss the Oilers. If you think here is not harsh and you like it, again, more power to you, enjoy.
Me, nope.
Alright, get Lost then.
One of the things life gives you is the opportunity to compromise. I don’t especially like/dislike the like/dislike option, or think about the jackass who gives me a “zero” within two minutes of my post going up every damned day, but we looked into a comments section that worked for all and this was the best available. Ignore them or no, but please understand LT does NOT love them.
Sometimes I don’t comment, but still read the comments. And everday once the season starts!
Keep the comments rollin’ ..
I’ve been coming here since the early
HOPE days, likely along with a majority of posters and readers. I think it was the 2006 run that really pushed this blog into the forefront of the Oilogosphere. I might have missed that but I’ve enjoyed everything since.
I remember being excited when the radio show started. It’s like this little private club went mainstream! Woodguy influencing the trade for Talbot made me realize that fans could influence the direction of the team. Finally the focus on prospects made me understand how important it is for an NHL teams success.
whatver happens to the blog Alan – it’s been a hell of a ride and you’ve enriched my experience as a fan.
I was just looking at PK Subban’s 5v5 numbers compared to Tyson Barrie’s. Subban is better pretty much across the board. Originally, I wasn’t going to look because everyone jumped on it saying Subban sucks now and would be a terrible replacement for Barrie. But he had better numbers last season on a worse team. If they needed to play Subban on the PP for some reason, I bet he’d do quite well. I have no idea what Subban is looking for in a contract, but if they can trade Barrie, and sign Subban for about $3.0M x 3, they’ve improved their 3rd pair (Subban played more 5v5 per game than Barrie last year) and saved $1.5M. They’d still have to trade Foegele. Then they could sign McLeod for $1.25M, and Sprong for $1.0M.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&p1=8474056&p2=8475197&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
Whoa, Subban could likely be had for apx 1 X $1.5MM, if not less, I think.
I agree
Holland seems to know he can leverage the dynamic duo and team now
That said PK has been quite a distraction in the room from many reports. He could be different know given age and circumstances- not an elite player anymore and he’s more likely hard pressed to even get a contract offer of any import as things seem to be going
I think trading Barrie and signing Subban is a legit way to get compliant (I agree Subban likely has more to give than many think, though I don’t agree he’s an upgrade on Barrie).
But as OP said, surely they wouldn’t need to give him $3M, never mind with the x 3 at the end.
By my count (using ArmchairGM on Capfriendly), the team would only need to clear $2.1M-ish to be able to sign McLeod and run a 23-man roster. Barrie out and Subban signed for anything under $2.4M would do that (and there would be no need to trade Foegele or anyone else.
Hey LT
Thank you for reconsidering your position. I am not alone in the thanks, nor the following: the last three years have been challenging for me on a few levels, Covid the Cherry on top
I have the type of brain that doesn’t like inactivity for very long. At the same time everyone needs some downtime in their way
Your comment section is my place to come (for nearly as long as you’ve been doing it) for that on the internet. We interact at a more considered level about our passion for the Oilers and sports than any other Oiler place I’ve come across since the olden days, but at the same time the stakes are low – it’s sports, entertainment, but it’s really stimulating, and I love having a place to air my thoughts where they are not out of place, even if sometimes not shared
And often challenged which is great. For me, rarely in a negative spirit
I have also had to practice restraint in responding to obnoxiousness and the like, we all know what we should do, but here for most of us it’s a practice we do at your request that isn’t wasted in a body’s life. And some of the way out there people can be quite entertaining when they’re around (and also make one concerned for them)
Cheers!
Hi Al. Wow, I haven’t ever commented this much. 😉
Thank you for your words at the end of your post today. First off, you owe no one an apology. Reach of us is impacted by some of the online behaviors that have become more common recently. At the end of the day, I am appreciative of comments still being available. That said, I don’t want them at the cost of it negatively impacting you. It is on all of us to be respectful, open minded and less argumentative.
Thanks Al and stay well. Thank you for all that you do.
LT, if anybody is owing an apology, it’s us for putting you in a situation where you even had to consider doing something like closing the comments section down.
Hopefully the new system in place makes moderating less of a hassle, although it doesn’t sound like it will. Hopefully we as a collective can take this as a wake up call to tone things down and discuss things in a civil and mature way.
You’ve created and hosted a really great community on this blog since forever. Thank you for keeping it going!
I’m sorry, but this made me laugh.
PS: If you will be looking for some people to help out with moderating The List, I would be willing to offer my services. I have no biases. Well, unless somebody is talking sh*t about Yakupov. Then I cannot promise that I won’t abuse my powers (/s).
If I was a Vegas fan that would not sound good to me.
SinBin.vegas
Bruce Cassidy on Lauren Brossoit: “He’s healing well from his surgery, again a guy that is highly motivated to get out there. Whether he joins us at the end of the year or two or three weeks in, we’ll see him.”
I presume he meant “end of camp”, not “end of the year” – that is, 2-3 weeks in to the season? Could be wrong but I think that’s what makes sense, in particular given the other public intel that he may not be ready for the start of the season but it shouldn’t be too much longer?
SinBin.vegas
@SinBinVegas
·
What I took from it was that it’s possible he could be out until the end of 2022. Not ideal.
A year ago Vegas and Colorado were considered the class of the west.
Both have huge question marks in goal this fall.
Hoo boy, that was a close one! Crisis averted? For now? lol
Seriously though… LT, you have not tried everything … unless the topic has been discussed and I missed it. Give people the option to block whoever they want. You can also “encourage” the usual suspects to block each other, hahaha.
There’s half the battle right there, if not more, IMO.
Not sure you can do that on WordPress. I used to frequent a site that had that power. Made for more peaceful reading
A very very good morning from Manila! I only logged on out of curiosity and saw a few comments and then I’m blinking and staring at the date of the posts, then double checking the year! Yup, it’s true, it’s back! I can’t believe it. I see OP is still overrunning the morning posts with the same thoughts he has posted umpteen times before. Things really seem to be back to normal, Thanks LT.
With respect, I made a few posts on the direct content of the morning’s post – my thoughts on the C, the wingers and each side of the D and then I didn’t post for about 8 hours.
Wow just logged in after being out of town and out of touch for a while. Kind of shocked actually. Checking in at Lowtide is a daily ritual even though I don’t post. I will miss it and everyone (well maybe not DSF!) Thanks Mr Mitchell for entertaining us all these years!!!!!
I guess I should have read a little further before posting!
What a roller coaster! I returned from multiple days in the Jasper backcountry to find out that Chetamon wasn’t the only mountain to burn down. Hopefully some good will emerge from the smouldering here, and we’re not back to yesterday’s post a week from now.
We’re inching closer.
Edmonton Oilers
#Oilers young guns McLeod, Holloway, Skinner & Broberg will be meeting fans & signing autographs on Sept. 10 (12:30-2:30pm) in Lloydminster as part of the Boundary Battle of Alberta!
A quick update on Jeremias Lindewall. He changed teams early in the summer from Modo, top team in Allsvenskan, to Östersund, newcomer and likely bottom feeder in the same league(everyone is sort of counting on them to finish dead last). This should mean more ice time and for the first few preseason games he’s been playing in the top six on what’s been the team’s best line according to reports getting a goal and a couple of assists in three games. This is truly a do or die season for Lindewall as an NHL prospect so a bigger role is crucial. He needs a breakout year or an NHL future is getting extremely unlikely. He’s a seventh rounder so the odds were never great to start with but another meh season and I think we can pretty much write him off.
A fun little twist is that Lindewall isn’t the only Oiler draft pick on his team as Samu Perhonen is their #1 goalie. He’ll see a lot of rubber this season if the predictions are on point. Hus career arc hasn’t looked great the last few years.
Oh and wrt the 2023 draft, Leo Carlsson is looking absolutely mint so far. I’ve had him pegged as a possible top 5 pick for almost a year but I’m starting to wonder if that’s a bit conservative, it’s preseason and all but wouldn’t surprise me to see him go third after the obvious Bedard and Michkov.
Thank you for your always excellent posts!
Thank the Gords the comment section is still going strong. SwedishPosters scouting reports would be dearly missed. Thanks as always for the updates on our Swedish prospects – love the nuanced way you report about them in the context of the club that they play for.
My circles are restored! So happy!
“The biggest problems we have are in the morning, when some posters simply overrun the blog with dozens of posts on varying subjects, and than later, usually after supper, when trolling and baiting occur”.
Does wordpress have an option to limit the amount of posts per account to limit back and forth / posting 16 times in one day? like (5) posts a day max?
No. I looked into it.
Fair. Thanks for all the hard work. I’m at post (3) now. I’m done today haha.
“You don’t know what you got till it’s gone.”
Heartache, then Joy!
I think all the changes made (mods, spam filter, etc) are all entirely reasonable, LT.
Anything we can do to make this place better, happy to oblige!
Chris Jones has an interesting approach. Turns over his entire roster while sticking through thick and thin with a mediocre QB.
Lots of script left to write before puck drop or even the opening of training camp. Hearing lots of stuff, rumours basically from familiar sources.
Evan Rodrigues add (Kurt Leavins)
Jake Virtanen add (Dhaliwal on radio)
Yamamoto trade (Treenasoil)
Oilers grievance with NHL with NHLPA involvement (Treenasoil)
So, if these come to fruition, the Oilers could gain $3.4 million in Cap Space. Like I had posted weeks ago, why would the NHLPA sit idly by when the NHL dictates that $3.4 million in salary cap is off the table. So this rumour rings true to me.
Perhaps Yamamoto is included in a Patrick Kane trade and the right side could look like this:
Kane
Puljujarvi
Rodrigues
Virtanen
But what else could happen? I will dig into this a bit more.
Agreed that Holland is still on the phone & we have yet to see the final product.
This might explain why players like Barrie and Foegele remain.
Why Rodrigue is still unsigned and why Leavins seems convinced he is coming here. The Virtanen rumour makes sense (and no trade of Foegele from a heavy hockey perspective). This is definitely interesting.
Here is my projected roster, with a Michael McLeod (a long time target of mine) addition on top of the Right Wingers mentioned above. Broberg & Holloway will be on the opening night roster and Janmark and Ryan would be waived for bonus reasons (paper transaction only).
CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster
FORWARDS (12)
Right wing: Jesse Puljujärvi ($3,000,000) – Patrick Kane ($2,625,000) – Evan Rodrigues ($1,875,000) – Jake Virtanen ($800,000)
Centre: Connor McDavid ($12,500,000) – Leon Draisaitl ($8,500,000) – Ryan McLeod ($975,000) – Michael Mcleod ($975,000)
Left wing: Evander Kane ($5,125,000) – Zach Hyman ($5,500,000) – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,125,000) – Warren Foegele ($2,750,000)
DEFENSE (6)
Right: Cody Ceci ($3,250,000) – Evan Bouchard ($863,333) – Tyson Barrie ($4,500,000)
Left: Darnell Nurse ($9,250,000) – Brett Kulak ($2,750,000) – Dmitri Samorukov ($775,000)
GOALTENDER (2)
Jack Campbell ($5,000,000) – Stuart Skinner ($750,000)
BUYOUTS (2)
James Neal ($1,916,667) – Andrej Sekera ($1,500,000)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1)
Milan Lucic ($750,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
Salary Cap: $85,900,000
Bonus Overages: $896,000
Cap Hit: $85,201,000
Cap Space: $699,000
Klefbom, Smith and Koekkoek on LTIR
Yep – there are a bunch of vets who are about to get squeezed out of the league due to almost every team being completely squeezed by the cap. It must drive the NHLPA nuts to see that 3.4 million recapture credit not being given just because the league hates the Oilers.
I mentioned Virtanen a couple of weeks ago. His size and nasty is in too short of supply on this team.
Size and nasty does not help if it comes with undisciplined and unreliable.
Controllable agression is an asset. Uncontrollable agression is a liablity.
I have a 25 year old son, University educated, excellent friend group- At 23 I had serious doubts he would move out of the basement. Today he is contributing to society in a significant way. Jake is just 26.
I echo YYCoil’s sentiments.
Young Virtanen has gone through a bunch of life challenging stuff since his last days as an entitled and insulated NHL player. Has it changed him? It is quite possible.
He has a more suitable skill set and a better resume than all of Rattie, Jurco, Granlund and Perlini.
He has a chance.
At league minimum – and I think that is about all it would take – it really only affects the owner’s profit margin if it doesn’t work and I think we know by now that Holland has the authority to do what he thinks best so why not?
I know that he scored 18 goals (I believe) a few years back but his numbers this season in the KHL were “meh” at best. I would think the premise would be some offensive upside but also the added “truculence factor” given the Oilers have been depleted in that area it seems. The issue is, as I understand it, Jake V. can provide a physical element like Kassian “at his best” once could but he is WILDLY inconsistent in that area and often its a non-factor.
If that isn’t an accurate representation of Jake’s history on the ice, I am happy to be corrected.
With ALL of that said, a PTO has zero risk and even a one-year league min has all but none.
You are correct. His issue is consistency and more importantly being fit and being prepared. He was roasted by his coach in the 2019 training camp and had to work his way out of the dog house from day 1.
To his credit he turned it around and got consistent and scored 18 goals. Come playoffs he shat the bed. When the season start the follow year he did the same thing. In the end he ended up wearing out his welcome.
It is possible he could show up unprepared, but I would like to think he’s done some growing up. I could be wrong, of course.
Fair, and thank you for the additional background info.
So, what do we make of 9G and 16P in 36 KHL games, tied, I believe for 8th (with 3 others) on team scoring (acknowledge a few less games played than some of them)?
Was he out of shape or unprepared for that season or was this getting used to a different league and culture (at a wild time I would think as well)?
Interesting to look into.
GP-36 G-9 A-7 Pts-16 +/- -5
I’ve since learned that he had his first 8 goals (4 assists) in 17 games, so 1 goal & 3 assists in his last 19 games.
Link is here: https://canucksbanter.ca/2021/11/06/jake-virtanen-scores-twice-for-khls-spartak-moscow-in-4-3-loss-to-dinamo-minsk/
Doesn’t look like the resume of an engaged player….pick your poison, I suppose.
Regarding the Patrick Kane situation, why would he wait, he can see what’s coming. Last week he played in the Biosteel Tournament with McDavid. I am sure they spoke at length.
I am convinced there is a greater than 70% chance that this happens.
Who’s saying he wants to stay in a complete teardown? Any talk of that is just window dressing to squeeze out the most value out of Kane and possibly Toews in my opinion.
His partner has a life and is probably a significant part of when he’s moving, if he is at all.
We don’t know what we don’t know.
I’d love to see it, but Leavins’ suggestion that he might come on a PTO just doesn’t seem possible. Maybe he’s not getting what he’s looking for on a deal, but surely there are numerous teams willing to give him a contract at $1M or so rather than just a PTO.
I completely agree, that’s why an explanation is that things will not happen until the Cap stuff gets taken care of behind closed doors.
Just replying to the last post in the thread, not JP specifically.
1) Is there any actual intel that the Oilers are grieving the cap recapture? I don’t consider treensaoil and actual source and Holland was pretty cut and dry when asked about it in the past.
I also will repeat my “intel” on this one which is that the CBA simply does NOT provide for a “negative cap recacpture benefit”. It 100% provides for a cap recapture penalty where a team signs a front-loaded term deal, trades the player at at a time where their aggregate cap hit is less than the comp they paid, and the player later retires. This was Louongo and Vancouver. This was Keith and the Hawks.
This penalty is specifically provided for.
There is no mention in the CBA of the opposite – where a team trades for a player and ends up paying less than his cap hit and get a “cap benefit” from it. This is not provided for and in the 10 plus pages of detailed examples on how the cap recapture penalty works, there is nothing that provides a benefit to a team in this situation.
I don’t believe a “cap benefit” was the intent of the CBA and its simply not provided for therein.
2) Do some think Koekkoek is injured or sick? Noone really knows the personal leave issue but, from accounts, he’ll be in cap. I agree there is almost no chance he’s on the roster but I think its simply waivers and assignment, not LTIR – whether he reports to Bakersfield I have no idea.
3) I imagine Rodrigues has legit contract offers out there – just trying to get “more”, either AAV or term or both…… I don’t imagine he would come on a PTO. Now, he’s the PERFECT final piece to the current right side, that needs one addition to the top 9 (to bridge to Bougault).
1 – I completely understand that you read through the CBA and that this is one of your professional skill sets. Much appreciated, but IMO this situation not being reflected in the CBA is a problem for the NHL.
Treenasoil is the source, but I don’t doubt that “Garfield” has insider knowledge. Lots more gets discussed/attempted than actually ever happens. So there will always be a lot more smoke than actual fire.
Further to the concept of a “cap credit” the source of this concept (Puckpedia) is extremely credible and knowledgeable. The basis of this concept is sound.
Removal of “X” amount available to NHLPA members should at minimum be discussed and not arbitrarily decided upon because NHL leadership makes that call. This is disingenuous and goes against the spirit of the CBA. This isn’t something that the NHL will have to worry about moving forward, but it is something they must discuss.
Anyway, this is all a part of the fun for me in being a fan. Some of us put lots of effort into it, like yourself. Doesn’t mean I am right and someone else it wrong. It is very interesting to me to extrapolate and possibly guess what is going on before things actually happen. I like to predict trades, etc and this is in line with that.
2 – Koekkoek is not listed on the Oilers roster, just like Klefbom. And every other signed player with apparent potential to make the team in Training Camp is listed there. The only other signed players not listed are Bourgault, Savoie, Tullio, Philp, Matvey, Schaefer, Kemp, Kesselring, Fanti and Rodrigue. Koekkoek’s exclusion is conspicuous.
Perhaps it is just an oversight.
3 – Agreed
Right on cue for you. 😉
Tracy Lane
·
1m
Oilers considering their options on Koekkoek …..as per Garfield
Lol, is Garfield reading this blog.
HH, are you Treenasoil?
Lol, is Garfield reading this blog.
=================
Doesn’t everybody?
1) Fair enough on what the rule/provision “should be” and I understand the logic, I’m simply proving my thoughts on what the CBA actually says – the provision and examples are long, detailed and thorough and, in my analysis, simply do not provide for this “negative cap benefit” and don’t intend to. Should they? Perhaps but, then again, this was a highly negotiated agreement over months and months that was signed off on by the player. Perhaps this is something that should be dealt with when they paper the full extension document (I think they are still working of the MOU).
Yes, I am aware that Puckpedia put this out there, a while ago, not long after the trade and 100%, Hart and his staff are not only credible but a massive resource with inside lines to agents, managers, etc. – and very responsive as well, ask Hart a question via twitter and you’ll get a response.
I just know what I’ve read and interpreted – I could be wrong but I just don’t see it provided for – that’s all.
The rules as written imply a cap credit. If a cap credit was not intended there should be a expressed provision disallowing it.
That is simply the opposite of how contracts negotiated by sophisticated parties and prepared by lawyers from prestigious corporate law firms work. I don’t agree on the “implication”, and use my 20 years of experience with complex corporate documentation as a backdrop and, no, expressly disallowing something that’s not provided for is not something that is required.
This is the last I’ll post on the topic in this thread – I am not here to jumble.
What is not expressly forbidden should be arguably allowed. The rules directly imply the Oilers should be able to recapture cap space, so if there is no direct provision saying it is disallowed, a reasonable person should decide that it should be allowed.
Sorry, but I can’t agree with this at all. When interpreting highly negotiated and detailed contracts, the provisions, and its wording speak for itself. This was contract was the result of sophisticated parties negotiating over a period of months to formulate an agreement and then the lawyers banging out the wording of each provision over another material period of time.
With 20 years of experience in negotiating and drafting complex corporate documentation, I would advise that the provisions read as intended and there was no intent for the negative cap recapture benefit. Its simply not provided for.
Just wondering, but have you ever had to deal with Unionized workforce implications? I have, with 3 different unions. Interpretation, despite much of what you’ve mentioned, still does come into play, in my 20+ years experience of interactions with unions.
Thus why I thought this was a worthy topic, that I’ve spent more than a minute on, to bring up here. This may not ever come to light, or we may be pleasantly surprised. Regardless, right now this is just water cooler talk. Not a contest.
Cheers!
The legalese and the formula says their is a cap credit. Bettman arbitrarily says there isn’t.
One can keep the legalese and the formula, but one has to explicitly disallow the case of the cap credit if one wants to exclude those cases from the formula. Or an arbitrator should find that the credit is valid.
The CBA doesn’t say anything about this. If one looks at the text prima facie, there is a cap credit, and nothing in the CBA disallows it except Bettman’s whim.
Agreed. If contracts were prima facie documents nobody would ever end up in court of before an arbitrator.
Reports yesterday from Pro Hockey Rumours that the Jets and Canucks are in on Rodrigues.
Since the Jets have the boringness G.M in the League I say he signs in Winnipeg.
When your only move of the offseason is signing Sam Gagner, you may not be doing enough to be competitive.
Lots of teams are in on lots of players. It’s up to the player. Why would he sign with non-playoff teams if he wants to win the Cup?
Regarding Vancouver, they still need to add to their blueline, (DeHaan or DeKeyser, perhaps) while Winnipeg looks like they have room for Rodrigues.
Again it comes down to the player. Lots of Toronto boys on the Oilers (barely any on the other 2 teams) roster, Rodrigues likely has more than a couple of those connections.
Time will tell.
It often comes down to role and opportunity.
The new word is fit in other words PP1, easy minutes, pad my stats for my last contract and most importantly what does the Wife think.
Thank you, LT. You made my day. I enjoy bantering positive stuff with other Oiler fans.
Well this is certainly a pleasant surprise. Thanks for reconsidering LT — yesterday felt like a death in the family. You know, I think your blog, including the community of posters, will be remembered as something quite special in the future when we are all too old to turn on a computer or have passed away. This is a testament to your patience and character LT. We all owe you a debt of gratitude.
Haven’t posted much of late. This summer’s been all about enjoying the weather and my granddaughter. And the Jays, Arsenal, and F1 😊
Sounds like yesterday was an interesting day. Keyboard warriors are an issue everywhere these days it seems. Shame.
In terms of the Oil, I’m really encouraged with the way the Dutchman is sheltering his top prospects like Broberg, Holloway and Skinner. It’s a refreshing change after 20 years of feeding the kids to the wolves.
Looking forward to reading LT’s book and the training camp battles for roster spots.
It is beyond sweet to see the comment section live through the night. I would acknowledge a hint of bitterness knowing the stress it has taken on our host in the recent past. I assume you’ve considered having a trusted acquaintance to ease the load for you LT, although I can’t imagine there are many who would handle the job with such a characteristic delicate balance.
Brannstrom signs in Ottawa for $900,000. I expect McLeod’s contract to be around that number as well – just a touch higher.
I am guessing that it can’t be announced until Holland has finished doing whatever else he is trying to do so that he has some flexibility without exceeding the off season cap limit.
Testing…
You are clear for take off. 😉
I haven’t followed Ryan Murray’s career lately. Is he a Kris Russell replacement or does he have a legitimate chance to be a regular?
I followed him in Colorado last season.
Once again injured but played decently after returning.
Telling that Colorado replaced him with Brad Hunt.
Given that they are almost polar opposite in types of D I don’t know how telling that is
I say it’s in the middle, better then Russell but legitimately loses ice time due to the better prospects surrounding him.
I like the Murray signing because he was in the room viewing the team that ousted the Oilers and knows exactly how they’re viewed. I enjoy the gamesmanship in it if Murray is good at relaying information.
I think it depends completely on health. If he can stay healthy, then Murray is going to get playing time imo.
Is Murray much of a drop off from last year’s version of Keith?
In terms of health, probably. Results in Colorado were uneven for Murray, he had good possession numbers (including expected goals) but the goal share (44 percent) was poor. Looks like shooting percentage is the culprit. The two men are close in expected goals (this is five-on-five).
Good bet with no risk attached then … between Murray, Broberg and Samorukov … one of these guys will hopefully grab the open LHD spot next to Bouchard. All they have to do is play as well as Duncan Keith in his last season …
I see some solid/plus numbers on a bad NJ team the year prior.
I think this player has some real game left and is not old.
Could give some solid minutes and even be spotted up the lineup if needed (or if simply earned) – managing his health may be something…. or just don’t get hurt, if its possible.
What a wonderful surprise this morning. Thank you, LT.
And we are BACK!
Thanks for the resurrection LT !
As much as this site distracts me from getting my work done and I get turned off by some of the nasty posting, I have enjoyed coming here on a daily basis for about 7 years to gain insights from your wise and thoughtful perspectives as well as many other posters. You know who you are! It is clearly a labour (day- pun) of love for you! 🙂
Game on!
Thank you. I didn’t know what to say yesterday as I respect whatever you thought was best. Your efforts have always been appreciated for the past 16 or so years. I was having a hard time imagining this being as an amusing of a simple daily distraction without the added characters in the comments you are like the runway where a lot of other interesting flights set off from and more often than not don’t burst into tragic heaping piles of flame. The good truly does outweigh the bad imo.
Wow, just logged on for pretty much the first time this weekend and it looks like I missed a crazy time. I am so thankful that “we hoped for the best, and it turned out better than the worst!”
I hope given the reprieve we can move forward with humble and thought provoking discourse. VictoriaOIl, thank you for the nice comment yesterday! Love you too and good luck with the retirement. I am not even close!
Thank you my friend.
Retirement beats the best job I ever had by every possible measurement & people have told me I had great jobs so welcome to the best years.
BTW when I mentioned yesterday that we were moving from White Rock that is not a reflection on the city. This is a great place to live. I think we have just grown tired of cities in general and are going rural.
Thanks mate.
Work’s for people that can’t afford not too.
Yup. I still think there was a mix up in the hospital where I was born.
I was obviously meant to be taken home by rich people. 😉
Get with the times. Identify as Riley then kickback and enjoy.
Hear, hear! I consider retirement the best job I never had!
Take up Pickleball and your retirement will be complete
I missed you all! Lol.
I don’t see how Edmonton gets under cap without trading Foegele AND Barrie. I tried getting under by trading Foegele and Ryan and couldn’t do it:
Hyman / McDavid / Yamamoto
Kane / Draisaitl / Puljujarvi
Janmark / Nugent-Hopkins / Holloway
Benson / McLeod ($1M) / McKegg
Malone
Nurse / Ceci
Kulak / Bouchard
Murray / Barrie
Broberg / Samorukov
Campbell
Skinner
Cap: $82,500,000 – $896,000 (bonus overages penalty from last year) = $81,604,000
Cap Hit: $82,114,333
Cap Space: -$510,000 over cap
That bottom 3 forward group (Benson, McKegg, Shore, or Malone) isn’t very inspiring and they are near league minimum ($750k to $762.5k).
I believe 2 substantial contracts have to go for no cap back or less money returning to get cap compliant. Foegele is the obvious one to me. You could also trade one of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi, but their ceiling isn’t known yet and if you trade 2 wingers, it really depletes the wings. I think it has to be Foegele AND Barrie. Either trade Foegele for picks/prospects under $750k, and trade Barrie for a cheaper D like David Savard in MTL. MTL had a poor PP last season and poor D points contributions. Barrie would help with both. Savard played 1st pair minutes last season (20:47 per game, Ceci played 20:53 for comparison), so he’d be solid in a 2nd/3rd pair role. The other alternative is trading Barrie for picks if the team has cap space and then signing PK Subban. He’s lost a step but in 2018-19 and 2020-21 he still got close to half a point/gp. He’s got a lot of playoff experience (96gp), too.
Daniel Sprong can probably be signed for $765,000 or less at this point so I’d also jump on that. I think he’s an upgrade on any of McKegg, Benson, Malone, or Shore, and possibly on Ryan, too.
I know they could get compliant with a roster of 22, but I doubt that is the plan and I don’t think that is a very good idea as it can really limit what you can do during the year. If injuries hit, it could be trouble. They need the room, just to be flexible during the season.
I am expecting some answers this week.
I imagine Manson would prefer to keep Nurse-Ceci and Kulak-Barrie together at the start. Continuity is important and will hopefully help the Oilers get off to a fast start. So I think that is in fact the plan, to run with a roster of 22 … 13 forwards, 7 d-men and 2 goalies. If you lose a couple of forwards, then they can play 11-7, a configuration that they’re comfortable with from last season.
I think there are several conditions under which Barrie might get traded later in the season:
1) First, they’ll want some games to break in Bouchard with a new partner, either Murray or Broberg
2) Barrie plays PP1 until such time as Bouchard is signed to a contract extension … a savvy manager would pump up Barrie’s numbers then dump him to a team desperate for a legit PP QB.
3) The game slows down for Broberg to the point where Manson feels comfortable enough running him out as the 3rd pairing D.
4) Murray and Samorukov stay healthy and play well
The doors have already fallen off Savard and Subban … their advanced metrics are awful. There’s really very little left on the open market that’s better than Barrie. Once the season starts, that will only become magnified further.
3rd pairing RD is a more impactful position than 4th line wing. Barrie doesn’t move until coaching and management is sure that the internal options to replace him are ready. If that is the case, then being patient on Barrie will likely net a better return.
“The doors have already fallen off Savard and Subban … their advanced metrics are awful. There’s really very little left on the open market that’s better than Barrie. Once the season starts, that will only become magnified further.”
Subban isn’t quite the player he once was, but he may still be better than Barrie. His 5v5 numbers across the board are pretty much better than Barrie’s on a much worse team. He played more 5v5 minutes per game than Barrie so he can handle the same competition. I bet if Subban was playing behind this PP, he might get big numbers too. So if anything happens to Bouchard, he could probably step in quite well. He also has nearly 100 games of playoff experience.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&p1=8474056&p2=8475197&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
It will be interesting to see which shoe drops!
Basically, they have to send out $3M above whatever McLeod’s salary is. If it is $1M, then they have to send out $4M in salary. I couldn’t get below after sending out Foegele and Ryan’s $4M. Could probably get under by just sending out Barrie’s $4.5M. I don’t think Foegele alone gets it done and I don’t think they’ll go with a roster of 22.
If they go with a 23 person roster, who would you get under? It has to be Barrie or Foegele plus. If it’s Foegele plus, who is the plus? I doubt it would be Yamamoto or Puljujarvi. 2 wingers gone is a big hole. If Barrie is 3rd pair and his PP time is being replaced by Bouchard, then he’s not worth the $4.5M although he’s still a value contract (to another team in need of offence from the back and PP production).
Drai – he’s lazy
Trade for Gagner
I’m not quite sure what you’ve done, but I’m 99% sure the team would only need to clear $2.1M (this is with McLeod signed, 23 man roster, Foegele and Ryan still there).
It’s true a Foegele trade doesn’t get you there, but Foegele + Ryan does. Also Barrie replaced for $2.4M or less, or Yamamoto or Puljujarvi replaced by a league min salary would do it. I’m really quite sure it’s not $4M.
Maybe you haven’t accounted for the bonus overage penalty of $896,000.
No, CapFriendly includes that in the count. Using CapFriendly I don’t even have to do any counting, just slide the players around.
Out at lake in the sun with a cool breeze coming across the deck while enjoying coffee and reading Lowtides blog. Priceless.
Fortuitously cooler heads prevail. Love this blog and learn so much from the banter. Saves me hours of surfing! Glad the pool is open again. Will quietly lurk in the background with a smile.
This x 1000.
“when some posters simply overrun the blog with dozens of posts on varying subjects, and than later, usually after supper, when trolling and baiting occur.”
Sorry LT, I know I am guilty of baiting. Some people are really good at it, too. Just a bunch of master baiters around here.
Careful, you’ll go blind!
Don’t let your left hand be a stranger, they say…
many years ago there was a master Kinsman with the last name Bater. He ran for district governor
Hooray! Thank you!
Let us all do our best to be worthy, whether we are orange on the right side or blue.
Strange feeling of relief….even though I feel almost no urge to comment…every possible angle is usually well covered anyway…it did feel like a tremendous loss after all these years. Hope it gets easier for you, I understand it may not be worth the frustration.
I’m starting to get really excited about Bourgault. The kid has very good hands, and a big brain. That should play well on the wing with either McDavid or Draisaitl.
Seems like its possible he could be an Eberle level player which would be massive for the forward depth.
Only ten days until the rookie camp where we will see how the kid’s skills translate.
You don’t need to apologise for anything, LT. You have the patience of a saint and everyone here should be duly appreciative of it. It is a privilege (not a right) to be able to post here. Kind thanks for everything you do.
And we’re back! Three words I didn’t expect to say today when I checked out yesterday’s comments section earlier this morning. But I totally get where our host was/is coming from and why he made that decision.
I’ll also try not to repeat what so many others said so eloquently but this is an excellent blog with a host that deserves a gold, a silver, and a bronze medal for all his wonderful work. This site really does add immensely to the enjoyment of following our Edmonton Oilers.
I actually missed the ‘closing’ comments yesterday as I try to stay off the computer on weekends – I just think we spend too much time on these dammed contraptions (even though there are good aspects to being computerized). So, I thought my first comment the other day was going to be my last. With a blog title of ‘There’s A First Time For Everything’ it seemed like an appropriate opening and ending to my comments section debut.
But fate(?) had other things in mind. And I find it strangely interesting, yet odd, that closing the comments makes the blog inaccessible. One thing I’ve learnt in all my years of troubleshooting the PC world is that computers aren’t totally logical. Perhaps that is because illogical humans put these so-called logical things together.
And some other thoughts:
I’ve gained an appreciation for some of the posters I have disagreed with (but never commented on) – their goodbye notes yesterday gave me new insight on who these people really are.
There are the ‘Usual Suspects’ who everyone seems to blame when the comments section gets derailed. Sometimes they deserve that blame, sometimes they don’t. Some of them really do add to this forum, others don’t. I really try to ignore the ones who don’t.
Lastly, I get that everyone has their ideas of how to improve the teams but I really don’t get some of the trades I’ve seen proposed over the years. Especially ones like let’s trade two or three of our players plus a first and a second for the flavour of the day. I’m really not sure how that improves the team.
And lastly, to sum up, as Surgeon’s Knot said to start the comments today: “It’s like Christmas morning. Thanks Lowetide.”
Meanwhile, and perhaps Lowetide has noticed this, or maybe there’s some unexplainable glitch, but today’s post has yesterday’s date.
Well said. This is my favourite place on the Al Gore. I’ve read every single post. It’s the only place on the interwebs where I stop to read the comments. Thanks for keeping this community going LT.
This feels like Christmas!! I legit lost sleep last night over this. I’m so happy!!!!
This place was honestly the place to be during the playoffs. The game day joy enhanced my experience so much. So: while I’m always appreciative of our good host, I’d also like to thank our ‘usuals’ for making the conversations intellectually stimulating and charming.
I love this place.
Well, Christmas Day came early! I read most days as I am out of town (or country) 80% of the time and this is a great forum for an intelligent Oilers fix. I have developed a procedure for cutting out the chaff: stop reading any thread with an HH sighting and do not read more than 3 pots from any one person per day.
Hoping all have a great holiday Monday.
Very glad to see the comments section remain LT. Yesterday was a reminder of how important this place is to me and many others. Likewise how unimportant the pettiness we sometimes fall into is.
Thank you again for the totally unreasonable amount of time and effort you put into this.
Interesting on the wingers you’ve got JP at a 20% chance of being traded, Yamo at 10% and Foegele at 0. I know many fans think/hope differently. Is this based on something you’re hearing, or a hunch?
It’s actually 20 percent for JP and Foegele, 10 percent for Yamamoto. A guess really, although it does appear Yamamoto has more track (two-year deal). Then again, it might mean a team finds KY a more attractive target. It’s a riddle.
Basically I read this blog and The Cult of Hockey everyday as there the only two I find informative and unbiased. I seldom comment but do read them most days as there a lot of intelligent commenters.I hope this solution works as it would be a sad day if the trollers were able to shut this down.
Your post is a welcome one, LT. Riesen to Believe and bringing us back from the brink. Got up this morning intent to grieve a little for the loss of this community as we step into the light with the best Oilers team in my lifetime, only to find a new system and a second chance. Let this brush with the end be a clarion call to bring our best for this promising squad. And endless gratitude to our host!
Markus Niemelainen, 24. Fine open-ice hitter, has size and good mobility. Some coverage gaps. 10 percent.
Also, I have to think that despite the very crowded left side, I strongly feel that Truckalainen is going to make his case with authority. The young man provides a unique skillset that is, shall we say, hard to ignore. Teammates must love him. And his cup of coffee showed him the path to the NHL. With an injury on either side and/or Broberg on the right, could he get substantial games? As a fan my hope is yes. I’m sure Murray is an effective option, but the kid brought me out of my seat many times last year, and he has the skating ability and timing that make me hope the defensive side will coalesce for him at the NHL level under WoodMan.
I would add that Samorukov brings a HIGH level of truculence and aggression – not quite the “hunter” that Nimeo showed to be but an aggressive open ice hitter as well – he also makes the opponent keep their head up coming through he neutral zone and, in my opinion, has other attributes that are superior to Nimeo (skating, puck moving, shot, etc.).
W:
Looking at the LW vs. RW depth chart is the prime evidence of why, for the roster, Foegele out as oppossed to Jesse/Kailer out makes sense.
There are 6 LW that can play in the NHL and, if Foegle is gone, two LW that could conceivably play 3LW in his place (Janmark and Holloway) and Benson still there for back-fill (and even shore).
On the other hand, there is a need for an additional RW (as opposed to losing one). One more RW that can play in the top 9 to add to Jesse and Kailer who can each play 1, 2 or 3 RW – with D. Ryan as 4RW. Bourgault learning the pro game, developing in the AHL and ready for back-fill in-season perhaps.
Of course, the BEST lineup has Kane/Nuge/Foegele/Janmark as LW and Jesse/Kailer/Hyman/Ryan as RW but we know there is no current cap space for that so, IF there is a winger out, the above is what makes sense to me.
The one thing we know for sure, this is a DEEP top 9, no matter how we slice it – without even factoring in the potential for one or both of Holloway and/or Bourgault to be legit top 9 options over the course of the season.
C:
That center depth is something to behold – best in the league by far if they go 4 centers strong.
Of course, they may deploy one of Nuge/McLeod on the wing which, for me, begs the question of who plays 4C. D. Ryan can take faceoffs on the 4th line but the org likes him better as a winger these day. Shore is not a great option at center. Malone is not a great option on the roster but I could see him win that day. McKegg – maybe a wild card?
Some individual “goals”:
McDavid – First 130 point season since Mario in 1995/96?
Drai – 50G and 50A – again.
Nuge – Recover that 5 on 5 production to 1.8 P/60, or even pressing 2 P/60 – he’s done it before.
McLeod – simply solidify as a top 9 player (although there could be some 4C), top of the rotation PK guy and top of the rotation PP2 guy – he’s pretty much show the ability to do ALL of that – just needs to do it for 82 games.
I’m curious why you have Foegele at 100 percent to make the team, and all of JP, Yamamoto and Barrie at less than 100 percent. Do you no longer view Foegele as a trade candidate to get cap compliant?
Yeah, should be 80. I’ll change it.