For the second day in a row, the news rolled out at a good clip, and now we’re at a point where it’s necessary to scour the interwebs to make sure nothing is missed. PTO’s, trade rumours and edging closer to getting Ryan McLeod’s John Hancock on something tangible. This is just the beginning of the fun stuff, but we’ve reached the ocean, dipped our toes in, and are finding shiny rocks along the shore. Good times.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: How will Oilers deploy free-agent addition Ryan Murray?
- Lowetide: Making the early call on Edmonton Oilers’ 2018 draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ most likely recalls from AHL Bakersfield in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Is the Edmonton Oilers’ 2022-23 lineup balanced?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer and what math tells us about his future
- Lowetide: Oilers’ opening night roster will be influenced by salary cap, waivers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ European, college and junior prospects for 2022-23
- Jonathan Willis: The Edmonton Oilers are rapidly approaching their “all-in” moment
- Lowetide: Why Oilers trading for Patrick Kane makes more sense at the deadline
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
AND NOW THE NEWS….
- Oilers signed RW Justin Bailey to a PTO. He is 27, scored 15-12-27 in 30 AHL games last season and didn’t post any points in 14 NHL games with the Vancouver Canucks. He averaged 9:05 a night too, so played over 100 minutes without moving the needle. He has 43 goals in his most recent 83 AHL games, so I think there might be a player here but he’s not a prospect and the window is not wide open. Edmonton is a good spot for him, as the right-wing position is weak and he brings size (6.04, 215) and some ruggedness. Good skater. Ken Holland has been bringing these men into the system since arrival, and Bailey’s resume (NHL offense aside) looks good as a ‘between Bakersfield and Edmonton sometimes this winter’ option.
- Marc Antoine Godin at The Athletic wrote a piece about the Montreal Canadiens looking for RH defensemen. Tyson Barrie was mentioned, with Joel Armia and Chris Wideman as the possible return. I don’t think that deal happens, mostly because Edmonton needs a stronger RHD option, but did like Armia before his offense went away.
- The Fort Wayne Komets are the new affiliation of the Oilers at the ECHL level, and the team added some names to their roster yesterday. RD Scott Allan (26, 6.06, 265 good lord) just finished up playing five years for Concordia University of Edmonton; RC Logan Barlage (21, 6.05, 203 land sakes!) just finished his WHL career; Tye Felhaber (24, 5.11, 185) who caused quite a stir in the OHL back in 2018-19 by scoring 59 goals in 68 games for the Ottawa 67’s.
- The recent focus on right wingers (Jake Virtanen, Justin Bailey) might tip management’s hand about who is being dealt, but I think the overriding issue will be possible return. I think fans will accept Warren Foegele being dealt for little return more readily than Jesse Puljujarvi being traded for little. I don’t know if that enters Ken Holland’s thought process but am fairly certain the Oilers monitor these things. JP and a fourth for a fifth (I tried desparately to work Firth of Fifth into this sentence) would be great for talking heads on the radio like me, but for the Oilers this is a serious situation (is my guess).
THIS IS WHAT I’D DO
If the Oilers trade Warren Foegele and there’s no contract coming back, Holland can run this roster right up to the cap ($10,000) and all the bonus babies are in the boat. This would be my preferred method, the big question mark being the two young speedsters on left wing. The two men have plenty of backup (Zach Hyman and Mattias Janmark) if things don’t work out, and I do believe Jesse Puljujarvi lands on the No. 1 line before frost hits the pumpkin. What do you think of this lineup?
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A big show this morning and afternoon, 10-2 on TSN1260. Joshua Kloke from The Athletic will join us to talk about World Cup soccer preparations for Team Canada, we’ll preview the NFL season opener, and talk MLB pennant races. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
NEW for The Athletic: Why Edmonton Oilers fans should be worried about waivers
https://theathletic.com/3574738/2022/09/09/edmonton-oilers-waivers-samorukov/
People seem completely sold on the idea of Barrie and/or Foegele being traded, but I’m not sure if that will be the case.
Especially Barrie.
McDavid helped to recruit Barrie, and Barrie turned down bigger contracts to sign here initially.
As for Foegele, he also has an off-ice relationship with McDavid and a few other Oilers. It was Shore who told him he was traded here while they (Foegele, McDavid, Shore, Nurse, Hyman) were training together in the off season.
If Holland cares about locker room cohesion, then those little details will matter to him.
Then again, hockey is a business at the end of the day.
Barrie had a really good playoff he’s not going nowhere. As soon as you trade Barrie your looking for a right D and they don’t grow on trees like left D do.
Hockey is about winning at the end of the day.
That takes care of 99% of the “cohesion”.
I think it’s more about maintaining continuity from last year’s playoffs to the start of this season. Forward lines change frequently, but D pairing take some time to develop familiarity. Oilers have Nurse-Ceci and Kulak-Barrie … both pairings work well together. They only have to break in a LHD with Bouchard to start the season. AND they have to break in a new goalie tandem … the latter will go more smoothly if there is less turnover with the D pairings.
If and when Barrie gets moved, it’ll be an in-season deal for an upgrade.
Nugent-Bowman back and with a high level lay of the land on a few matters, including: potential short roster, McLeod contract, Murray’s “role” and matters vis-a-vis Broberg and Samorukov and some interesting stuff on Kane’s grievance.
https://theathletic.com/3578774/2022/09/08/edmonton-oilers-roster-ryan-mcleod-contract/
And you expect us to pay for this ad-free, interesting content from a guy with inside connections and a talent for writing? Pfft.
Looks good to me. I don’t know much about Greg McKegg but for some reason this always gets stuck in my head. <iframe width=”560″ height=”315″ src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/rgqKv9rkAE0″ title=”YouTube video player” frameborder=”0″ allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture” allowfullscreen></iframe>
I would switch lines Puljujarvi with McLeod.
Condors signed Justin Bailey to an AHL deal.
The Canucks tried repeatedly to get him up to speed as a bottom 6 winger but always found him wanting.
While he has both size and speed, he seems to lack the hockey sense of an NHL player.
Wonder why he didn’t just give sign a 2-way contract with the Oilers.
Maybe the AHL deal gives him more flexibility to pursue other NHL opportunities if he doesn’t make the Oilers?
I would suggest he wasn’t being offered an NHL contract, nor should he be. There is nothing to really suggest he’s anything more than a plus AHL player who is less than a tweener at the NHL level.
The sell was probably “earn an NHL contract” like Malone did last season and various others have earned starting on AHL deals (Deharnais, Hamblin, etc.).
He’s played NHL games every season of his 7 year career. Average of 12 per year. That’s kind of the definition of a tweener.
I’d have thought he could find a 2-way deal somewhere.
Given he’s going to play in the org. anyway, and the team only has 43/50 contract spots filled, it still seems odd to me that he wouldn’t have been offered a 2-way deal (with similar AHL salary as the deal he signed with the Condors).
12
11
2
3
14
That 14 being awful on the Nucks last season – the only think worse than his 37% goal share was his 33% expected goal share.
His average of 12 games is boosted by the one year of 30 plus game 6 season ago.
He has not shown to be an NHL player in years.
Sure, call him a tweener, that’s fine. My guess is his AHL salary is much lager than most of the AHL salaries on 2-way deals and this would force him to earn it like the org has done with Malone, Hamblin, Deharnais, etc.
Exactly, a tweener 😉 Anyway, it doesn’t matter what we call him.
The only reason I can see not to give him a 2-way contract, with the same AHL salary as the deal he has with the Condors, is the 50-man list. And that’s not a pressure point.
Because of that this setup it still strikes me as odd. Of course we don’t need to agree either.
LT, how much of a risk is it to have Holloway 3W right off the bat?
Would be nice to shelter him a bit and pull him out of the lineup to rest and reset if he needs it – he has yet to hit a 82 game schedule & is a raw rookie.
I understand you develop your rosters with what is attainable & available, this blog appreciates the troubleshooting.
I think Holloway at 3L is fine, but he has to play. So fourth line is a no-go.
I agree on the placement on 3L for sure, I guess I figured placing him in the A for a short stint (similar to Drai) wouldn’t be a bad idea.
4L is a no-go, skill needs to be with skill.
Holloway in the AHL is fine, but I think giving him a chance (brought on by the Foegele deal) is fine.
My Holloway plan is the AHL as a centre (after being on Day 1 roster for the cap) till January. They 4th line centre after January 1st with Ryan and Janmark.
Its not a bad plan but I’m not sure I see it being played out that way:
1) Holloway said himself in the last few weeks (at the informal skate) that he thinks the org will be using him as a winger, at least to start – presume he didn’t come up with that on his own.
2) I’m cool with him being 4C but he won’t see PK time I wouldn’t think (barely did in the AHL last year) nor PP time so that makes it tough to get even 8 plus minutes – not sure that’s best.
3) I think he’s up before the calendar turns.
I don’t know where he’ll play, but I kinda think he’ll force his way onto the roster.
All the years I have been reading LoweTide there has been a recurring theme that the Oilers have been laggards in using statistics. In his interview with Jason Gregor at ON Holland jnr. notes “there was a lot more going on than anyone realized. And that’s a smart thing for any club to do. I think Edmonton was close to the first adopter of sports analytics in hockey. If they were not the first, they were one of the first. I think that the modern analytics community in hockey, the Moneyball moment, I believe originated in Edmonton.”
https://oilersnation.com/2022/09/08/long-read-brad-holland-discusses-his-path-to-assistant-gm-analytics-and-more/
I have no doubt this is true. We’re the organisation that brought in Tyler Dellow and Dallas Eakins. It seems we spent some time in the recent past wandering in the analytics desert, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say we were among the trailblazers.
Yeah the conversation around Edmonton and analytics was always annoying. As if getting some big analytics department was some panacea for Edmonton and they would instantly become a good team and start making good decisions. When really, the biggest hurdle is getting the powers that be to accept and understand what the analytics are saying and following it logically.
I still get the feeling that there are a lot of teams that get analytics departments because they know it’s something they should have, but don’t use them fully. Either they still go with their gut, or make emotional based decisions or use analytics only when it confirms their bias.
Most recent example being Seattle. I don’t know how many times I read that Seattle has some cutting edge analytics group and look where that got them.
New Jersey hired Ty Dellow in 2019. Have a look at the Devils team record since. Maybe that changes going forward and maybe he is part of it, but there have been some awful hockey personnel decisions made by that team in the past 3 years.
100%. Having analytics and valuing/applying them properly are two totally different things.
I would add a third thing which is understanding the data too.
I have spent a decent chunk of my career working with data, analytics and reporting. It’s pretty depressing when you have a higher up requesting data so they can make a decision on something where, no matter how much you simplify it for them or explain it to them like they are 5, they still don’t understand. If they can’t see it as a pie chart or a graph and have no interest in understanding more than “1 pie piece is bigger than others so that’s good (or bad)” then it doesn’t matter how many brilliant analytics people you have, how good your data is or how good your tools are.
I imagine in hockey, there would probably be a weird relationship between GMs and their analytics teams. Analytics probably uncover a lot of interesting players to present to GMs, but GMs (a lot of which who still have no stats or analytics backgrounds) probably don’t want to feel like they are being told who to go after if they don’t understand the “why” well, especially if they have scouts who are “seen em good” types that may have a different opinion.
It’s a tool. Not everyone with a hammer should be called a carpenter…
PDO, Fenwick, corsi, are all stats created by and named after prominent members of the Oilogospehere.
Oilers fans were absolutely the pioneers of hockey analytics.
I saw it happen live in 2005.
Vic Ferrari of Irreverent Oiler Fans went on to be hired by the Capitals. He invented the CORSI and was probably the biggest driver of analytical innovation in the community.
Sunny Mehta of the same blog was maybe the first analytics hire going to the Devils.
MC79 was hired by the Oilers and after the Devils.
Lowetide was where all these heavy hitters gathered to talk about anything and everything and Lowetide promoted everyone with links on his blog.
I wrote a longer post waxing about these good old days, but the blog ate it.
You forgot about the WoodMoneys.
Talented bunch of folks have graced these halls.
Those were the days – I never commented much then, because the quality of the posts were so high level that I was content to just absorb it all.
Love the hat tip that Brad Holland gave the Oilogosphere in his interview. It shows that some of the NHL execs were at least peripherally aware of the quality discussions that were going on here and on some of the other now defunct blogs.
He seems to have a very good understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various forms of hockey data, along with some of the randomness that simply can not be quantified with high probability.
Overall initial comments read thoughts:
1) Agree that a Barrie for middling players (including term) isn’t high on the options list for cap compliance. I don’t get that one.
2) While I think Nuge at 2LW and McLeod as 3C is the more viable option (and I think they will both play each), if Woody believes that McLeod at 2LW gives the team the best chance to win on any given night, that’s how he should deploy. I don’t imagine that he will, nor do I think he should, give ANY consideration to future contracts. If he thinks Bouch at PP1 on any given night is the best way to win that game, do it!
3) Ya, the Wheeler Calder article is solid in my opinion (referenced it early this morning in yesterday’s thread). I agree that none of the three Oilers are “real Calder contenders” but should be mentioned. I’m almost surprised Broberg was mentioned – don’t get me wrong, he’s coming, even a bit ahead of schedule, with a reasonably high ceiling but, holy hell, it would take a season for him to win a Calder – he’d need to pop for 40 plus points which seems a bit out there, right?
4) I still don’t think the “Kane Rumor” is an actual rumour and there isn’t any smoke. For the most part this is Stauffer and, for sure, Stauff often has real and legit inside intel. Of course, Stauff loves to let us know when his info is based on hard intel – i.e. the Dach contract, he had that weeks ago and has told us many times that its from a source. He tells us the Rodrigues has numerous contract offers, from a source. On the Kane stuff, its different, its clear he’s spit-balling and, even moreso, all the actual intel is that the Hawks are NOT discussing Kane trades with any teams. They will not engage unless/until Kane comes to them and says to and that has not happened – from accounts.
5) A trade-centered around Barrie/Mayfield has been long talked about – heck, I was posting about it in June. Its the “type of trade” that makes sense for the Oilers and could make sense for the Isles but is unlikely to happen at this point. It would put the Isles over the cap in isolation. Also, Mayfield at $1.75MM is a massive value contract right now so Lou L. is likely reluctant to move it and they very well could be looking to re-sign him. Barrie has 2 years of commitment left so that’s tough for a team to take on (for a one-year UFA contract out).
As far as i can tell I either started the Kane to Oilers rumour or else someone else did more or less exactly near the same time.
It simply adds up: No longer palookas today Oilers make the semis; Kane if he wants another cup literally has two excellent teams to go to namely Edmonton and the Avs.
For all of the excellent reporting by Harpers Hair on the progress of other Western teams none of them are looking like contenders more than Oilers/Avs. Eastern teams are in a 6 team dogfight so no team has any guaranteed chances. That’s like the 1980s with that killer division i don’t remember what it was called. The Patrick?
McDavid should easily win the cup sometime in the next 3 seasons. For all I know about hockey the very best players win the cup early and often. Evander Kane don’t forget took a big discount to stay on this now excellent team.
Patrick Kane is from Buffalo – Edmonton with snow will be no problem for him. It’s going to be all up to him when the decision is made.
PS: no way does he cost the Oilers anything much more than tokens of okay to more than okay prospects, or low roster players because there is no logical reason for Mister Holland to weaken the team in one way to strengthen it in another – robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Thing is…Colorado has cap space and will be tolling it as the season progresses unless they make another move.
They also have 5 top 4D so would have the luxury of moving one if required.
Not sure they would be in on Kane but certainly could accommodate his cap hit if they traded Sam Girard.
I agree with HH … on paper, the Avs are better positioned to make a deal for PKane than Edmonton is. But … it’s really up to PKane … if for whatever reason he has a preference for Edmonton, then a deal will get done, similar to the underwhelming package that the Flyers got for Giroux last season.
For that reason, I don’t think PKane will get traded before the season start … he and his agent will wait to see how things play out to start the season, then select a destination that they will waive his NMC clause for.
I also agree will LT … keep your powder dry until we know how this year’s roster is shaping up, then make a move to shore up the weaknesses.
I see it the same way. Kane holds almost all the cards and if I were him I would wait.
1) Justin Bailey doesn’t move the needle for me. I guess there is some potential “upside” there but not really and, while he’s bigger and faster, I like D. Ryan at 4RW (and PK) more than Bailey and there certainly can’t be, or shouldn’t be, any thoughts of Bailey higher than 4th line, right?
2) Yup, Jesse out for little could happen just as easily as Foegele and I, among others, would not like that. They could very much stand to add another top 9 RW even without an inumbant leaving let alone simply moving one out for nothing. As LT’s lineup shows, moving Foegele out for nothing can still lead to a good left side, even with Hyman over to the right.
3) LT, I think you have the healthy roster surrounded if its Foegle out and nothing else in. The only thing I would change is one of the McKegg’s (McKegg, Malone or even Benson) out and Samorukov in to go 8D/13F. I guess the other potential is to flip/flop McLeod and Nuge but that’s not a “roster change”.
4) Even with two LW out (Foegele out and Hyman to the right side), this team can have a solid 4-set LW and, really, if Holland/Woody think Holloway can use some more AHL time, they still can. Janmark has been a 3rd liner his entire career and back-fill that 4LW with Benson (combined with an 11/7 availability) – fire.
Before Frost hits the Pumpkin… Love your analogies! Personally I don’t think this roster gets us to the ultimate Promised Land lifting the Grail and drinking from it like fish out of water. But if KH trades Holland and signs Rodriguez and somehow upgrades Barrie with Sversson (or someone similar) I think we’d be oh so close! RW depth needs to be addressed and the D needs a little more of an upgrade IMHO.
KH trades Holland?
I worry that would end in us giving up draft picks somehow!
Queen Elizabeth passes at 96
Thought that she would live forever. Now I need to learn the lyrics to God Save the King.
How anyone can give this a thumbs down amazes me.
I hear you… oh well. My girlfriend is attending Sir Elton John’s concert in Toronto tonight. Might be an emotional night for the legend, given its almost exactly 25 years since he sang Candle In the Wind at Diana’s funeral (Sept 6?). Could be a show for the ages.
It actually is quite pathetic. I mean, you can have your views on the monarchy. But today? I guess I am just foolish to believe there is empathy in this world. You would think after living the past few years in the US I would know better…..
I hope Sir Elton puts on a great show. I have seen him several times. Definitely worth the price of admission.
I remind myself to have empathy for such folk ‘if’ they are younger
The smart folks making decisions about political economy and society for the past long while figured dissolving and disrupting everything was progress.
Turns out people need some guidelines to play nice in the 8 billion person sandbox
Younger folks have been told do your own thing it’s all good etc etc blah blah. It doesn’t work. Unfortunately some norms about appropriate general conduct are needed, as we see all around us, so we can get along
Such as it’s callous to mix feelings about governance and history with an individual’s death
I fell off the soap box all done
I think it depends on how you view the thumbs up vs thumbs down system or the context of the post.
If someone told you in real life the Queen died and you gave them a thumbs up, that would be bizarre.
But with that being said, I also find it bizarre to “like” a post on the internet about how someone passed.
It seems like news someone would or should dislike, at least in my opinion.
Maybe. Did not think about that.
Comparing On-ice metrics on Natural Stat Trick and I’m now thinking PK Subban, Victor Rask and Daniel Sprong should be the Oiler’s targets. Their metrics are better than all the rest of the players we’ve been talking about. (better than Sam Steel, E Svechnikov, Sonny Milano, Evan Rodrigues, Alex Galchenyuk, Jay Beagle, Zach Aston-Reece, Jimmy Vesey, Cody Eakin, and Rask plays C with a 50.88 FO%.
I should have left Subban out of this comment. But Rask and Sprong look great by on-ice metrics. I think Rask will be taking a hair cut on this contract, too, so he should be cheaper. Sprong can probably be signed for $850k or less.
I like McLeod at 2L. Leon needs his speed. He will affect zone entry and puck retrieval. If he explodes offensively, is that a bad thing?
Love him or hate him, have to give props to him for this.
https://www.tsn.ca/calgary-flames-nazem-kadri-donates-1-million-to-london-ont-health-centre-1.1846130
And it does appear from this to be an actual gift, as opposed to one of those times where they “commit to funding”, fancy talk for getting the plebs to donate in the player’s name.
Nice gesture indeed.
Should have donated $1,000,000.10 to include the bottle deposit from the bottle Binnington threw at him
If there was a decent deal for Pulju I think you need to take it as there is only 2.25M coming off the books next year. Sounds like there isn’t a deal there so I have my fingers crossed that Oil end up with the roster proposed by LT.
Next option is somehow rehashing the trade of Barrie+ for Soucy at half price (or something of that ilk).
As exciting as it is, I don’t love throwing a ton of assets for Kane. This D will grow this year but will make mistakes… if paying through the nose then do it to improve the D or just place a moderate bet this year on the team. Would rather save putting in all the chips for something longer than a 1 year solution, or waiting until the Oiler’s D/G situation is better understood.
I’ve mentioned a ton of times before that Holland has never in his career traded a 1st round pick for a rental.
If he does it for Kane, it could mean that 1) Holland had decided to do something he’s never done before, or 2) that potentially Holland knows something that we don’t know regarding Kane’s sign-ability.
People seem to forget or ignore the fact Kane has a full NMC. If he decides to leave, I’m guessing it’s not going to be a very long list of destinations. And I’m also guessing the GM of whichever team he decides to go to will have a good idea of that, thus making the return far less than what a regular deadline acquisition would cost. Wishful thinking perhaps, but given the variables involved, I don’t the see cost being as high as some have pegged it.
I vote a trade of Barrie and Benson to the Isles for Mayfield and Matt Martin.
Solves the cap problem and gives us some nasty in the bottom-6.
I see your proposal has a voting approval of 10-1 but unfortunately the 1 down vote looks like it was cast by Lou. 😉
Looks about ideal considering everything else.
You’ve (potentially) sacrificed Samorukov to waivers, and there’s not enough cap that everyone (Shore/Koekkoek) could be fit even if they earn a spot on the 23-man.
Still, this looks like the least pain, and you do have a full 23 players.
You could also fit Virtanen in there quite nicely if he were willing to sign for league min (knocking Benson, Malone or McKeeg off the roster).
That could look like:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Holloway-Nuge-Virtanen
Janmark-McLeod-Ryan
Benson-McKeeg
Regardless, there are a ton of possible alignments for the forward group for Woodcroft to play with.
I think this lineup would rock!…nice job lad!
Switch Virtanen and Puljujarvi, drop Benson or McKeeg in favour of Samorukov and off we go. 😉
🙂
That dach contract seems pretty rose colored…what has he brought to justify 3+million?
Draft pedigree size and speed. If he was chosen in the 3rd round then he’s probably not making more than McLeod.
It’s also a 4 year deal, so there’s a bunch of projected growth included in the number.
Dach scored at an 82 10-22-32 rate on his ELC (age 18-21). He hasn’t popped, but that’s a solid showing at that age.
Didn’t he give us nightmares in the playoffs?
He sure looked good in the play-ins. I don’t think Chicago was a fun place to work at last year with the scandal being front and center.
He certainly gave Ennis nightmares.
That Dach contract looked alright to me. A lot better than some of the contracts signed by teams this summer, decent length for Montreal, decent money for the player. If he develops like he was forecast to do it’s a bargain that ends in him getting paid big style. If he flubs and is never more than a third liner it’s not horribly toxic if the cap goes up as forecasted.
Not saying I’d have signed him to that number, but it’s not raising my eyebrows.
The stage Thompson deal may have skewed his number. If he has a big year next year on a 1 year show-me contract, then his next deal would be crippling.
Stauffer has the term and AAV on this deal like weeks ago so I don’t think Thompson’s deal has an effect – never know though.
First time, long time.
Thanks for keeping this thing running LT.
Ryan McLeod’s agent has to be salivating at the thought of him running on the second line.
Still curious about the Kane rumour as there’s a little too much smoke and too many specifics being batted around by those in the know for it to be nothing.
If nothing else, it’s nice to at least envision the club swinging for the fences. Gone are the days of Jerred Smithson.
Anyways, keep up the great work LT.
Top 20 Calder Trophy candidates.
https://theathletic.com/3546726/2022/09/08/nhl-calder-trophy-candidates-rankings/?source=user_shared_article
Thanks for sharing… that’s a solid list for Edmonton if you include honourable mentions. Holloway, Skinner, Broberg. Only MTL has more players mentioned as possible Calder candidates.
MTL has #12, and 3 honourable mentions (HM)
EDM has 3 HMs
BUF has #1, #5
SEA has #2, #10
OTT has #7, #15
CBJ has #6, #20
SJS has #9, 1 HM
MIN has #13, 1 HM
ANA has #3
WPG has #4
The present and future look pretty bright. Brougault, Savoie, Shaefer, Lavoie, Petrov, Tullio, Samorukov, and Desharnais will all be interesting to follow this year too.
Only one other playoff team among those you listed, and they have to run with a $70M cap for the next 3 years. Agree it’s quite solid considering where it big club is at.
Especially that the Oilers players may get 30sec of pp time at the most
I think it’s risky. With only $10k in cap space, you can’t even replace Benson with Griffith as that is $12.5k. You can’t replace Murray with Koekkoek, you’ve also exposed Samorukov to waivers. No option of bringing up Shore unless a more expensive option gets sent down like Ryan or Janmark. I’m also not sure McLeod gets signed for $900k, I was thinking he’d get something more in line with the previous Yamamoto/Puljujarvi deal at $1.175m. Maybe he gets less, but I wouldn’t bank on it yet.
If Holland can dump Foegele and Barrie, it’s possible he can replace them with 2 better or equal players and get himself some breathing room to make moves nearer the deadline. If not, this is it. Teams like OTT and ARI have the space and could fit Barrie in their lineup on the right side. They could also trade them at next year’s trade deadline (March 2024) and get another asset. Send Foegele and Barrie out with 4th and 5th round picks and get 6th and 7th round picks in return. If he was able to dump them he could probably easily sign Rodrigues, Subban, and Sprong and still have wiggle room.
Just wanted to clear up one misconception I seem to see a lot (not saying from you): Rodrigues is not equal to or better than Foegele.
http://naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&p1=8477998&p2=8478542&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
They’re pretty damn close (check on-ice stats, too), and Rodriques has the advantage of being able to play C and take draws. Also, if you narrow your scope to just last year, Rodrigues had a better season. Some of that is the opportunity, but opportunity is earned as well. The other thing is that he might be cheaper, which is a big part of what the whole exercise is about. If you can get Rodrigues for $500k to $1M cheaper or even more than Foegele, then you’ve given yourself some flexibility now and at the deadline when Holland may want to address some issues or injuries. One thing for sure is that Foegele is not necessarily better. And some would argue Rodrigues is better and more useful or flexible as a sometimes C. I could be convinced to go after Milano as well but he is a winger only.
You have to take into account linemates too though. Rodrigues most common partners last year were Kapanen, Crosby and Guentzel. Foegele’s were Kassian, Ryan and McLeod. And still Foegele outscored him in goals and primary assists.
Forgele was snakebit plus a couple of saves on him were unworldly.
Of Rodrigues’ 19 goals last season, four of them were scored after game 34 and he played all 82 last year.
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Just read this. Anybody know what happened? Covid?
Unfortunately, I don’t think a Habs trade works as they don’t have the cap space (they might have about $500k max) and neither do we. A Barrie trade needs to be a cap dump.
If MTL had cap space they would make the most sense as their PP and production from the blueline were both among the lowest in the NHL last year and that was before losing Petry.
I feel like OTT and ARI are the only teams that a barrier trade makes sense for. Neither of them are too strong on the right side for puck movers. BUF and SEA may work, but less so as they have Dahlen and Schultz respectively on the right.
I believe it was reported that Price and his $10.5M are headed for LTIR for the season. So Montreal they should have the cap, and remain a possible destination for Barrie.
Agree that trade doesn’t make sense for the Oilers though.
They’re currently 10.3M over the cap.
My bad, I didn’t realize they were that much over the cap currently.
They do have Monahan and Drouin (in addition to Price) listed on IR on Capfriendly, in addition to the 23 men on the roster. Capfriendly includes their salary in the total, but they aren’t included in the 23. So if they play, 2 players and their salaries would be bumped off, opening up $1.5M or more. If they don’t play, well their LTIR space would be available.
So, the Canadians do have at least $1.7M in cap they could use to take on a contract. It true though that that isn’t enough to take on Barrie’s contract without salary coming back the the Oilers.
All reports I’ve read are that Drouin and Monahan are both excited about playing this year.
Good point about 2 players coming off for Monahan and Drouin. So yeah, they could have about $1.76 in cap space.
but, still, as you said, the Barrie thing doesn’t work as we’d have to take at least $2.8m in salary back only saving us $1.7m. Plus, I really, really don’t want Wideman on the Oilers. Don’t want to have to cheer for him. And Armia/Wideman, as others have mentioned would only save us $337,500. Not worth it to get worse.
It’s a contract year for both Drouin and Monahan who both are only 27. It’s surprising what a motivater money and fame can be. It sure would be justice if Monahan scores more than Kadri this up-coming year.
I think he will.
re: Biley PTO: I wonder if Nurse had something to do with that. They played together on the Soo Greyhounds at the end of their OHL careers and went on a 14-game playoff run (they faced McDavid). They are both mixed race children of pro football players and grew up 1 hour apart on opposite sides of the border in Hamilton and Buffalo. They had a lot in common so maybe they stayed in touch.
Matt Barnaby on Bailey as a prospect:
“Besides Eric Lindros, Justin Bailey probably has the best first couple strides for a big man that I’ve ever seen,”
He had an interesting childhood. He lived in the same apartment complex as Mike Peca, Rob ray, Matt Barnaby. Received advice from Danny Briere as a kid.
When he was 15 he moved to Long Island where he lived with Pat Lafontaine, his coach.
Condors just signed him to an AHL deal. It’s a bit crowded down there too.
My my that takes me back – I wore the needle out listening to “Selling England By The Pound” by Genesis….. Firth of Fifth remains my favourite Genesis song to this day….
I can’t tell you how often I listened to this album, other than to say many, many times. “Firth of Fifth” was always my favourite, especially the long instrumental part in the middle with the epic guitar solo by Steve Hackett.
I finally got a chance to hear & see it performed live a mere 47 years after it was released, when Hackett & friends played the Winspear on his Genesis Revisited tour just before the COVID lockdown. The feature was the performance of “Selling England by the Pound” front to back, followed by encores of two more epic tunes, “The Musical Box” and “Watcher of the Skies” (another personal favourite for this skywatcher). Just a great show.
Lots of Hackett’s performances of old Genesis tunes are available on Youtube. Here for example is a fine performance of “Firth” at Royal Festival Hall.
https://youtu.be/RCnzDy2tSk0
Steve alone among the five men in the classic line-up has continued to perform the early material in a serious way. As a solo artist Peter Gabriel turned the page (almost**) entirely on his Genesis days, while the “And Then There Were Three” version of the band typically lumped bits & pieces of 3 or 4 early tunes into something they called “Old Medley” while focussing primarily on songs from Phil Collins’ time as lead singer. Phil is now seriously disabled, and the band recently performed their final show.
(**Gabriel did sing the opening section of “Dancing with the Moonlit Knight” (the first song in “Selling England”) in the very last show of his 2016 tour with Sting, which happened to be at Rexall Place. According to <a href=”https://www.setlist.fm/setlist/sting-and-peter-gabriel/2016/scotiabank-saddledome-calgary-ab-canada-33ff7c51.html” setlist.fm </a>, “Peter Gabriel performed this song first time without Genesis. First Genesis cover since 1983”, Sting having sung the part in all previous concerts in the tour. (Singing each other’s tunes was part of the show.) I was in attendance that night too, & absolutely delighted by that oh-so-brief interlude.)
Y’all never cease to amaze me. LT throws out some title I never heard of, so I assume it was some o score song from his childhood, but then all y’all pipe up about it being your favourite, and wearing the record out etc. Its really cool to see poeple connecting over different things, in this case music.
Running McLeod with Drai and Hyman will only succeed to drive up McLeod’s price on his next contract. I don’t think that’s a plan that’s either in the cards or good for the team.
Flipping him and Nuge in that lineup scenario makes a lot more sense, IMO. I understand wanting the vet centre to help Holloway, but I don’t want McLeod anywhere near Connor or Leon for more than a game or two out of 10 unless there’s injuries. I’d rather see Holloway there TBH – at least he’s still on his ELC, so there’s more room to manage his cap hit.
All this being said… all the smoke is burning on RW, so… I guess part of me hopes that Jesse is part of the Patrick Kane deal so there’s more value on the return for him. I’m not really interested in the 5 asset price tag for the player, but… If we’re doing it anyways, I would rather have him for the season than for the last 3 months.
If the price is 2023 or ’24 1st, Jesse, Foeggle, Samorukov… plus something to another team to eat the cap hit (3rd rounder?), I can get behind that. Bourg can’t be part of the deal, hes needed to (hopefully) backfill that top 6 RW position. Broberg is too close to being a sold value contract to be included either. So that leaves secondary prospects like Savoie or Petrov, who may not be quite enough for Chicago to accept. I am leery to include another D prospect if we are moving Sammy, but I think he’s a decent player to move in this kind of deal.
If it’s a difference of JP for a 3rd/4th vs the kind of deal above for P Kane… what would you do?
Running McLeod with Drai and Hyman will only succeed to drive up McLeod’s price on his next contract. I don’t think that’s a plan that’s either in the cards or good for the team.
I agree with what you’re saying here in regards to driving up McLeod’s price. Just wondering if the coaches would actually care about this. Do you think Holland would tell Jay NOT to do this? And if he did, would he listen? Just wondering if it’s actually a thing or not.
I think at some point, you have to accept that as a consequence of being a contender. If Mcleod has chemistry and produces good results with Drai, we should carry it forward. Its always important to keep the cap in mind, but if Mcleod prices himself out of Edmonton, then we will get a nice piece back for him, or trade a different player to fit him in.
Otherwise, you’re sacrificing wins to manage the cap, which may not even work. Think about it, Yamamoto has been essentially stapled ot either McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s line since he broke into the NHL, and despite that, he hasn’t gotten the huge raise many would have prediced. I think at this point, its full speed ahead, and make the best decision for each game and section of the schedule to win as much as possible and figure out the cap and all that afterwards.
Not saying, McLeod should be run with Drai, but, whether we run McLeod, Yamo, or Pulju, they aren’t cost controlled and you run the risk of inflated stats and therefore ask on their next contract. Someone is going to get the bump, so the coaches should just decide based on the combo that gives the best chance of adding wins. Holland should be smart enough to know that their stats were inflated by playing with elite talent and negotiate accordingly. If the agent/player don’t agree they’ll get traded.
Running McLeod with Drai and Hyman will only succeed to drive up McLeod’s price on his next contract. I don’t think that’s a plan that’s either in the cards or good for the team.
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Apportioning ice time based upon how it might affect a player’s future contract demands is just a terrible way to make that decision imo.
I mean really, really terrible.
It sends the wrong message to the player and it sends the wrong message to his teammates.
I agree that trading JP for nothing but cap relief would be the genesis of much anger among the fan base.
The sands of time were eroded by /
the river of constant change
Genesis — “Firth of Fifth”
Goodness, I think you Athletic people need to work on your player valuations. Barrie for Armia + Wideman? And you want us to pay for this content?
*facepalm*
It was proposed not as a value for value trade, but as a way for Edmonton to open cap relief over the next two seasons.
“Could acquiring, for example, Joel Armia to strengthen their bottom six and Chris Wideman, a sort of “Barrie-lite” who can generate some offence from a third pairing, be a potential solution to their cap problem? They would get two players who collectively count against the cap for a little over $300,000 less than Barrie does alone.”
It was one item on a much larger article examining various possibilities for Montreal.
$300k cap savings does nothing for Edmonton. I’d rather have the better player and run a man short, sending us a cap dump for Barrie is insulting. Why would Edmonton trade Barrie for a cap dump just to save $300k? It’s not logical… unless he thinks a perennial 50 point defenseman making $4.5M is also a cap dump. In which case, we can’t have an intelligent conversation.
FYI Armia has 3 years left on his contract, so selling this as “cap relief over the next two seasons” is disingenuous at best. Even if the players in the trade had equal on ice value that trade would favor Montreal, but they don’t.
The trade wouldn’t solve the Oilers the Oilers cap problems, so it really doesn’t make sense from an Oilers POV.
It’s like $1 a month bro.
Bashing our host’s employer is really what you want to do today?? After the week we just had
“you Athletic people need to work on your player valuations.”
Yeah, damn athletic people. If only they spent less time at the gym and more time digging into the player stats. Just because they have rock hard abs and a body fat % lower than the fat % of a greek yogurt, they think they are better than us?
*Armchair GM ripping on who the Athletic hires, not realizing that the blog he so often frequents and likes is hosted for free from an Athletic hire.
Banned? me? WHY?
Sheesh..