These are the total goals vs against (in all game states) for each of Connor McDavid’s seasons as a member of the Edmonton Oilers. The 2020-21 campaign is the Canadian Division, so must be viewed with some suspicion and possibly a jaundiced eye. The two best seasons against the complete NHL schedule are 2016-17 and last season.
Edmonton is going to score enough goals this season, but can this team suppress enough offense to win in the playoffs?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers fans should be worried about waivers
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- Lowetide: Making the early call on Edmonton Oilers’ 2018 draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ most likely recalls from AHL Bakersfield in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Is the Edmonton Oilers’ 2022-23 lineup balanced?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer and what math tells us about his future
- Lowetide: Oilers’ opening night roster will be influenced by salary cap, waivers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ European, college and junior prospects for 2022-23
- Jonathan Willis: The Edmonton Oilers are rapidly approaching their “all-in” moment
- Lowetide: Why Oilers trading for Patrick Kane makes more sense at the deadline
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
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- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
LAST SEASON
Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson had some kind of impact on the roster, much of it on the defensive side of the puck. Mike Smith’s strong run gets part of the credit but it’s also true the elevation of the Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci pairing aided the spike. If the coaches can find a second pairing to play effectively against elite competition, we could be in for something special. Remember that 58 percent goal differential (this is in all game states, throughout the piece).
OILERS DEFENSE VS. ELITES IN WOODCROFT/MANSON GAMES
Puck IQ is down currently, so this is a graph I pulled earlier this summer. These totals come after the coaching change and show a super pairing and then two third pairs. It worked, and maybe it can work again but getting a second pair (say Kulak-Bouchard) to help with the heavy lifting. I’d trumpet the Broberg Rel number but it (and Kulak’s) comes in such a small sample size.
THE GOOD OLD DAYS
Remember that 58 percent goal share in all game states Woodcroft put together after arriving in Edmonton? It was just a portion of the season, but reminded me of the glory run 1981-1988, seasons the Oilers were over 55 percent goal share and winning four Stanley Cup in seven seasons. I do not expect that kind of extreme outscoring, but did predict (here) a 55 percent goal share for the Oilers in 2022-23. It’s a rare thing. That goals-against number will be key, and Woodcroft-Manson will be the architects. A healthy No. 1 goalie who can answer the bell will also aid the cause.
POSSIBLE ROOKIE CAMP ROSTER
- Goaltenders: Ryan Fanti, Olivier Rodrigue, Jan Spunar
- Left Defense: Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Darien Kielb, Noah Dorey, Jeremy Hanzel, Charlie Wright
- Right Defense: Mike Kesselring, Phil Kemp, Max Wanner
- Center: Dylan Holloway, Noah Philp, Filip Engaras, Drake Rymsha, Luca Hauf
- Left Wing: Carter Savoie, Reid Schaefer, Matvey Petrov, Cole Dubinsky
- Right Wing: Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Dino Kambeitz, Jake Chiasson, Ty Nash
We’ll know in a few hours or days and I admit the defense has a real veteran feel, but there just aren’t many blue (only Max Wanner, really) who are under control and remain outside pro hockey. Junior eligible player who is heading to camp I’d most like to see the Oilers sign? Czech goalie Jan Spunar, who is headed to the Portland Winterhawks and has a solid resume.
NEW for The Athletic: Oilers prospects’ early-season results are encouraging, and it’s about to get very busy.
https://theathletic.com/3581546/2022/09/10/lowetide-oilers-prospects-results/
Reid Schaefer with a PPG and SHG and plus 2 in a 5-2 win in his first game.
Max Wanner led Moose Jaw in shots with 5 and was even in a 3-1 loss but, interestingly, he was 1 for 1 in faceoffs……(preseason game).
Every time is see the goals vs against results from when Woodie and Manson took over, it sure gets my attention. Fantastic results. It would be interesting to see what the change in results was with some of the other teams that had coaching changes as well for a comparable. I’m die hard oilers fan, but it’s sure seemed like something positive happened out West in Van .
Looking at the goal share numbers for the Oilers in the 80’s made me curious to check out the Canadiens of the 70’s. In 76-77, they had a 69.4% goal share. Not too bad.
A bit early for draft watch, but a prospect from our backyard (Grande Prairie) to keep an eye on is beginning to matriculate in Seattle with the Thunderbirds.
Gracyn Sawchyn
GP 1
G 0
A 4
PTS 4
+/- 3
PIM 0
PPG 0
SHG 0
SOG 1
FOW 6
Developed at Shattuck St. Mary’s and with the USNTDP where he put up some respectable points and plenty of PIMs. Can skate like the wind.
A RHC worth following.
How does a kid from Grande Prairie play for USNTDP?
His IHDB profile says he was born in Minnesota.
How the hell did he end up in Grande Prairie!
That should be the city’s motto:
“Welcome to Grande Prairie! How the hell did you end up here?”
The answer is usually one (or both) of, money and mistakes.
This is really funny!
Grande prairie was a boomtown 15-20 years ago.
Born in GP, raised in Minnesota.
Life has intruded and I won’t be able to be in Penticton next weekend but looking at that lineup makes it even harder that I had to cancel the hotel reservation.
Seven names at LD has a vague deja vu feeling to it as the leftorium appears to be making a comeback. 😉
But there are a lot of names on that list that I would have loved to get a peek at. Chiasson and Petrov intrigue me in particular just because of what I read about them here and there.
Hoping for long write ups from those lucky enough to be there.
I assume it will be streamed?
That would be great if they do. It is a really fun event to attend though.
The Oilers website should have it, alternatively if you really have to go there, so should other teams (I know it will be on the *spits* fLames site).
1) Stauff said on his show yesterday that Bailey will be hurt to start the season and, if he would have signed an NHL contract, it would have hit the cap while he was injured and on IR. This may be a reason he’s got an AHL deal when there is a chance he could earn an NHL one. Seems JP was right on something being up.
2) Oilers may be better on the PP next season – I mean, they were 3rd this past season, after finishing 1st for two straight – the PP could “bounce back”.
3) Yes, the Oilers do need to find a second pairing to take some pressure off Nurse/Ceci. Near 50% TOI vs. elites is simply not sustainable through 82 games plus 2 months of playoffs (which is the goal). Problem is neither Bouch nor Barrie, the two right side options see to be great choices for tougher minutes (although Bouch will be JUST FINE with 2nd pairing match-ups very soon) and Kulak hasn’t proven to be a legit 2LD over the course of 82. Would it make sense to try and balance the pairs a bit more and split Nurse/Ceci (who would still, of course, play together situationally)?
4) Related to 3, the Broberg and Kulak numbers vs. elites is heartening, that’s for sure. Small samples become bigger samples in due course. Come on Bro……. keep it coming.
5) Damn I wish the Vermont duo could play next weekend – Munzenbruger and Maatta.
Would definately be fun to have Maatta and Munzi in there as well. We did get to see them at the world juniors and I liked how they looked. I was able to get to the game where the Germans and Munzi was up against Austria and he seemed to play a strong defensive style game .. it’s was a game that was early on in the tournament so they were all still getting up to speed I think, but he seems to Skate well and take the body. Kind of pushed a few guys around where the Austrian team wasn’t as big he kind of had his way a bit. But looked pretty good as the captain should.
Manson likes a true shutdown pair. OP wants to break what was working, and return to what wasn’t working.
One makes deployment decisions based on the roster one has, not the roster one wishes on has.
Nurse is being paid for the role he is being given.
Bouchard and Barrie both contributed more in softer minutes. Why would one change that? Where does the 58% come from? Bouchard and Barrie winning the softer minutes and not losing the tougher minutes.
Bouchard’s future really is not as a top pair D. But as a 2nd pair assassin, being the a game changing difference in the middle minutes.
With Nurse and Bouchard, the Oilers are not built for 1st pair, 2nd pair, but shutdown pair, middle minute dominance pair.
Manson made the change the day he arrive from the first model to the 2nd.
You are inferring things that aren’t case.
I never stated that I want to break up the Nurse/Ceci pairing but asked the question about a more balanced trio for discussion.
No, it wasn’t broken but I’m not sure that that pairing playing 50% TOI vs. elites for 82 games is sustainable – there may be nothing left of those two heading to the playoffs.
I’m sure the coaches hope to reign in those minutes a bit and get more help from the lower pairs but there are many question marks about most of them handling that type of comp.
Will be interesting to see how they deploy – I’m sure there will be various iterations.
They would be foolish not to consider running three balanced defensive pairings . What worked last season doesn’t necessarily work this season. It’s a new season .
Fair point re: shutdown pair deployment but changes may be necessary because the roster changed.
A 38 year old Duncan Keith did not scare anyone, but he was still a legit NHL player. The same is yet to be seen for whoever the Oilers has on the 3rd pair behind Kulak.
Whereas last year they had an elite pair and two serviceable other pairs, they are counting on either Murray or Broberg to be servicable. They made a similar bet 2 seasons ago, but Koekkoek/Jones/Russell wasn’t it.
In the past 3 seasons Nurse played with Bear, Barrie and Cecei, and made whoever he played with looked good. If that 3rd pair crater it would be likely to see a pair shufle.
I like today’s topic.
Defence is definitely going to be the story of the season. The team is going to score that much is certain. In order to get into true contender status, the goals against will need to come down.
Jack Campbell having a solid season could really help here. The 16/17 team wasn’t that good possession wise but they had Cam Talbot playing out of his mind for the entire season which made them a top ten team in goals against. Good goalering has the biggest impact on team success.
On the backend we kind of know what we have in Nurse, Ceci, and Barrie. Ceci can’t really have a better season than he did last year IMO. Some defensive improvement from Bouchard would be welcome. Kulak/Broberg are the wild cards. If Kulak can play well in a top four role it would be huge. He has shown he can play well for stretches but hasn’t been able to be a consistent minute eater through his career. Broberg just being low event would be a nice bonus for the club.
Another wildcard is the 3C hole. Defence doesn’t just come from the D. McLeod has the physical attributes to be a play driving two way C. If he embraces the role of playing a smothering style it will pay dividends in the goals against department. Most of the bottom six guys were underwater last season, and changing that will pay big dividends.
So for me the keys to the season for the Oilers are Campbell, Kulak, Broberg and McLeod. The play of these guys could determine if the Oilers will be good or great.
This is hoping for a lot of things to go better than expected. Do we think this team has the tools to bring goals against down by 15+ goals or do we need outside help?
As I understand it the plan is to start Campbell for about 50 games leaving 30 or so for Skinner so I would add him to that list.
During the Talbot Reign our 3 year team average save percentage was 904% under Smith’s 3 years the team average was 908%. If Campbell and Skinner combine for a 914% I think Woody would take that to the bank.
I agree and I think that should be the line in the sand for deciding if the changes in the off season were successful.
Some combination of Kulak and Broberg outperforming the baseline for a second pairing LD is likely, but some combination of Kulak and Broberg outperforming Keith is extremely likely.
Even if Keith was ‘lucky’ to post his 58% GF% last year, it won’t be easy, or likely, for Kulak and Broberg to best that.
I keep hearing from Stauffer that Broberg will be at rookie camp. No? Change of plans?
Bob would certainly know more than me in that area. Will add Broberg.
I really like this data LT. I also like plus/minus which is found in Drumheller these days.
It seems to me that above 50% in goal percentage in all game states gets you a food stamp to the playoffs. Of course many things including injuries and PDO could skew the numbers.
I’d be very interested to see a breakdown of the teams who made the playoffs goal percentage the last few years for comparison if someone has the time and know-how.
I think this years team ends close to the 89-90 group, hopefully with about 30 less goals against (315-253).
Reminder, College players aren’t allowed to participate in any of these camps lest they give up their eligibility no?
I thought there’s a stipulation that they can participate… if they pay their own way, and don’t keep any tokens/momentos like jerseys, etc.
I wondered about this as well and I think they can attend development camps under the stipulations you mention but I don’t think they can attend rookie camp where there would be professional players involved.
So many wrinkles in those contracts. Thanks.
Correct. Classes are now in session and hockey practices are just starting. First games are October 2nd.
I found this:
The Division I Management Council of the NCAA recently (in 2004) passed an amendment to its by-laws creating a common start date for men’s ice hockey.
This legislation will not take effect until August, 2004.
This date will be the Saturday of the 25th full weekend prior to the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Some teams get an extra 2 weeks practice where they come to Canada to play USports teams. Or something like this.