I was all-in on the Oilers 2010 draft class, represented here by several members of the team’s rookie roster that September. The 15 names here played 3,969 games, led by Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Jeff Petry. At the time, I thought the second round of 2010 picks (Tyler Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton, Martin Marincin) would deliver at least one significant player, and was very confident about Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, Jeffy Petry and Teemu Hartikainen. The 2010 draft taught me that if you like eight prospects in the pipeline, assume three and hope for four. Three it is.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: How the Oilers plan to work around the salary cap barring a trade
- Lowetide: The truth about Jesse Puljujarvi and the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers fans should be worried about waivers
- DNB: Jack Campbell is determined to win in Edmonton: ‘I’m ready for this’
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ looming roster crunch, Ryan McLeod contract and more
- Lowetide: How will Oilers deploy free-agent addition Ryan Murray?
- Lowetide: Making the early call on Edmonton Oilers’ 2018 draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ most likely recalls from AHL Bakersfield in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Is the Edmonton Oilers’ 2022-23 lineup balanced?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer and what math tells us about his future
- Lowetide: Oilers’ opening night roster will be influenced by salary cap, waivers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ European, college and junior prospects for 2022-23
- Jonathan Willis: The Edmonton Oilers are rapidly approaching their “all-in” moment
- Lowetide: Why Oilers trading for Patrick Kane makes more sense at the deadline
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
THE 2015 ROOKIE ROSTER
The 2015 rookie roster included three impact prospects (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse) and four more kids who held promise. There are 2,064 games here, so the 2010 rookies have the edge, but there are just three regulars left in that group, and there are six from 2015 who are rolling along. It doesn’t matter really, because 2015 is the winner because McDavid, and then the Draisaitl kicker just rubs salt in.
POSSIBLE 2022 ROSTER
There are four names who have played in the NHL, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are two men we can be fairly confident about at this time. We don’t know how much offense they’ll bring, but the speed alone gets them to the show. After that, Xavier Bourgault has a real chance to be the next value contract cashing goals for one of the top centers. I’ll count Reid Schaefer, Tyler Tullio and Dmitri Samorukov as men who have convinced me they will play in the NHL in the early days and years. That’s six. So, count on two and hope for three when we look back seven years from now. I’ll be in a seniors dwelling with little access to the internet, and will spend most of my one hour a day on Wordle. So you’re going to have to look it up and send me an email, which won’t do much good since I will have forgotten my password.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy show with Glen Suitor to talk CFL and Bruce Arthur to discuss the wide world of sports, plus more. TSN 1260, 10-2, and I’ll be dropping an interesting piece of news during the show. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
NEW for The Athletic: Book excerpt: Inside the Edmonton Oilers’ history at the NHL Draft
https://theathletic.com/3588173/2022/09/14/edmonton-oilers-book-excerpt-draft-lowetide/
Once everyone who was a rookie in 2010 and 2015 are retired, comparing total games played makes some sense. But given that players drafted in 2010 have had the opportunity to play in almost 900 games since that opening day and the 2015 class only have had the opportunity to play around 500 games, to say that 2010 has an edge in total games is not that meaningful yet.
2010 rookies overall certainly seem successful, but even with waiting for their careers to finish, 2015 projects to be stellar by any measure based on McDavid and Draisaitl alone, and Nurse will have the best career of any Oiler defenseman in the last 25 years.
Just to put McDavid career in some context so far, he sits 25th among active players on the NHL career regular season scoring list. The youngest of those 25 players ahead of him on the list is John Tavares, drafted 6 seasons before McDavid. Put another way, he has more career points than all but one player drafted in 2009 or later. McDavid has scored 40 more career points than Hall and played almost 300 less games. Draisaitl could pass Hall maybe this season or next.
As others have said, games played is important over a career, but performance matters too and there is no contest between Oiler 2015 and Oiler 2010 rookies in that regard.
I like this analysis
GP is a credit to the player. It’s hard to be in the NHL
Production and who it’s against is the meat on the bones. And when it happens
Some players elevate their play when the chips are down (of course we know ‘clutch’ isn’t a real thing) and some get points and don’t seem to be impactful players or win much in big moments
Drai and Connor elevated to historic levels last post season
I like Connor’s comments about defense. The Oilers have good aggregate fancies, but cave in crucial times under pressure from teams as good as them, even sometimes not. A structure and execution issue
Hopefully a full season with WoodMan and they’re tight as a drum this go round
Oilers announce the rookie camp roster and its AMAZING – the usual high end prospects, including Holloway, Bourgault and Broberg plus an amazing selection of second and third tier guys. I can’t wait to see the likes of Wanner, Petrov, Savoie, Tulio and Fanti and am also really intrigued to see Philp and Chiasson out there.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-rookie-camp-details-released/c-335531356
http://nhl.bamcontent.com/images/assets/binary/335434464/binary-file/file.pdf
How many will have legit NHL careers:
Lock it: Bourgault, Holloway, Broberg
Highly Likely: Schaeffer
Real Chance: Wanner, Chiasson, Tulio, Petrov, Savoie, Kesselring, Philp
OP is stoked.
Tulio outscored his next closest teammate by 25 points last year. I wonder if any stats guys have looked at success rates of prospects with big point gaps over their peers and if that translates into NHL success more often than those with better teammates around them?
As he should be! This should be a heck of a season.
A hockey trade would have been made already.
I imagine Holland has at least one lowball offer on the table, likely for Jessie P.
I also think hes going to play it down to the wire as he has an undisclosed injury in a top 12 player.
Something always happens in camp, Oilers or among 31 other teams. Somebody will lose a significant player. That will allow Holland a last minute deal and/or run short players for a time if necessary, but it will happen.
But yeah, Im thinking he plays this right up to opening night.
Ken Holland is a man with lots of patience.
If Puljujarvi does get traded , it has to be for a conditional pick . So if he does score say thirty goals , Oilers get a 1st or some condition like that . That would be fair considering the circumstance.
I fear Holland has little negotiating power for whatever reasons. Still, that would be a wise condition. And if Jessie was to score 30 goals well Oilers fans will be up in arms! lol
But I think if he cannot score 30 with McDavid, how does he get there with another club?
I think Jessie remains unpredictable on the ice. The coaches tell him where to go, he nods his head but goes the other direction.
I look at Kane coming in. Ill be right over here Connor working this wing. When you pass it to me there is a high probability I’ll be here and that I’ll take a shot. Predictable. Pat Maroon, predictable. Connor can work with that.
Sometimes its like Jessie gets the instruction. “get in front of the net” and he’ll be there all night. Other times Jessie reverts back to big sweeping turns, crossing over to left side, middle, all over. He does disrupt, sure. Both sides.
This is why folks like him on the third line, he could do his thing. Other teams don’t have a McDavid, they don’t have a Leon, so Jessie you could be a top 6 guy doing your thing somewhere else. Or do it here on the third line. Same difference.
I recall getting blatantly screwed on a condition when it came to Mr.Lucic trade with Calgary. Why isn’t Holland going after the recapture on the Keith retirement. Maybe we need to take up a collection so he can hire a Lawyer and finally win one. We got hosed on the draft picks for Pete and Flattop and how about us losing something like 11 in a row challenges that could of went either way.
The CBA simply does NOT provide for a “negative cap recapture benefit.
It certainly provides for a penalty where a team signs a player to a front-loaded contract, trades the play at a time where the aggregate cap hit was less than the money paid, and the player then retires.
It simply does not provide for the opposite (getting a cap credit after trading for a player who has a cap hit higher than comp paid and he retires) nor do I think the intent of the provisions provide for one.
There are pages and pages and pages of detailed examples of how the recapture works – not single one provides for any cap credit.
This was also known at the time of the trade, as per Holland.
Its not black and white there’s a huge grey area. Maybe Keith should change his name to Kovalchuk
The CBA was the result of months and months of negotiations by sophisticated parties and document itself drafted by high end and reputable law firms.
From experience I can all but guarantee that the wording of every provision was drafted with intent and reviewed with purpose.
As a person that negotiates and drafts highly complex legal documents, in some circumstances for loans in the billions, I will stick with my analysis and interpretation of the relevant provisions.
Yet, many sophisticated parties and high end law firms still include my favorite contract language, “For the avoidance of doubt …..”. Contracts are written all the time with language the drafting attorneys do not agree on the meaning of at the time the documents are signed!
In your reasoning I see plenty of reason that there’s still more then enough time to make a hockey trade.
My reasoning is that there may be time, but no trade that makes the team better, so he waits.
Complete theory but perhaps he is waiting on an injury update to roster player and if so hes holding back on any trade.
or Hes holding back to see what other teams might need. Perhaps an injury and a left winger is needed – he deals from the left.
Or an injury to a right winger, he deals from the right side.
Something can drastically change that will substantially increase the value of Hollands assets.
Im sure there is a low ball offer, but with that in hand why not wait and see what develops? Wait them out.
The closer this gets to opening night, the harder it will be.
Most teams are focused on salary cap issues and how to deal with their own rosters.
As well, there are free agents remaining who will be signing at league minimum so bringing in significant cap this late in the game is problematic.
Teams with cap space will be holding out for a sweetener to take on additional cap.
Who’s left?
Al,
It’s best if you just transfer your writing personality to an AI software like Jasper that can “emulate” your style.
But can it emulate 1960’s Saskatchewan camping stories?
hmm. Work to do. You will be needed yet.
One thought LT, when looking at past prospects success and using games played, it obviously lacks a lot of context. 400 games as a 3/4 liner vs 1st line centre or top pair d are very different levels of success. I get that it’s a quick way to gauge success and takes a lot of subjectivity out. But what if you used career earnings as well as games played? It wouldn’t be perfect because some players get signed to value contracts, etc, but it would be a quick and easy way to add a little more context.
Games played against draft position would likely be a better comp as this is already contextualized (albeit for really young men)
Unlike in 2010 (Hall) and 2015 (McMagic), I think it is also unknown who will be the alpha of the group. Different positions and different skills (though speed is the theme) cloud the outcome of who will be the class of 2022. I’m a bit leery on only selecting two, but as long as no one breaks their tibia, we may have a lofty group of young-uns.
So get some booze, grab a towel (it is the most important item, of course) and pull it taunt to strap in. Here’s hoping that 2022+ is a wild ride to Lord Stanley (Whoop! Whoop!).
Grab some Old Dutch as well. You’ll need the salt.
That 2015 group had an alpha, a beta and a gamma. It was obvious then & it remains obvious today.
Dan Rosen
Jordan Kyrou signs an 8-year, $65 million contract with the Blues that kicks in at the start of next season. It’s the exact same term and money that Robert Thomas got when he signed his new contract in July. So the Blues have Thomas and Kyrou locked up through the 2030-31 seaosn.
That 2016 draft is pretty crazy.
Top 10
Matthews
Laine – traded
PLD – traded
Jesse P. – ???
Juolevi – traded
Tkachuk – traded
Keller
Nylander – traded
Sergachev – traded
Jost – traded
Kyrou, DeBrincat, Girard, Dube, Fox and Bratt all taken outside the 1st round and would likely be top 20 in a re-draft.
I’m pretty sure Kyrou and Thomas are the goods. I had Thomas in my pool last year and he started taking important own zone face offs away from O’Reilly near the end of the season. The Blues have a succession plan in place for their core.
DON’T PANIC
Hard to pretend I’m working when I snort reading this.
Have your offspring done any research on seniors’ dwellings? I would expect whichever one they choose for you will be more popular once you’re there.
Where are Lavoie, Hamblin, and Desharnais?
1) Lavoie is still hurt – he had season ending knee surgery and will not be healthy for camp of the start of the season.
2) Hamblin is on the rookie camp roster.
3) Deharnais is 26….. a bit old for rookie camp, no?
I had high hopes for him when he was drafted now he’s just floating quietly into the abyss.
Losing Puhljujarvi is addition by subtraction
Same for Nurse
Show your work.
Verdads back! Where do we stand on the issue of when Holland should be fired?
Have we see Verdad and HH in the same forum? Is this like a Polkaroo thing lol
Did I just read a “polka dot door” reference on a hockey blog? This is truly an amazing forum!
There was another user (same user with another name?) with a similar meaning to verdad (truth) that would go on at night and say the same kinds of things. Pretty sure they were one and the same. Forgot the username though…
Yes you did lol
Art vanderlay
can you quantify that?
Who would you get to replace Nurse and J.P with the 12.3 million windfall you now have??
First day of training camp and you are already in mid-season form. Kudos!
Hi Gandma!!
🥰🥰
Thank you for generally just randomly swooping in, screaming to the gords and then swooping out.
I appreciate that you at least have some respect for the places capability to be functionally useful over bogging it down with prolonged futile further banter in response to any catcalls.
Hmmm. This is a great lesson, and the attrition even from the players you’re ‘sure’ about is important to keep in mind.
Looking at your lists another way though, 2010 produced 4 x 400 game players. That’s a legitimate career in anyone’s books, and earns them an NHL pension.
A smart bet would also see 4 x 400 game players from 2015 (3 are there already, and counting on Bear to stick in the league, with Jones also a possibility).
So maybe 4 is a reasonable number to hope/expect from the 2022 group as well?
Savoie, Petrov and Niemalainen could be added to your list of 6, as players who have a real chance.
Perhaps I’m being too optimistic, but even with your words of caution, I feel like it’s fair to expect 3-4 legitimate NHLers from this 2022 group.
the prospect pipeline may not have a Taylor Hall in it, but I think there’s a deeper group of 8 than 2010, and the organization has turned a corner when it comes to developing real NHLers through the minors.
Holloway and Broberg will have careers, and I like XB more than anyone not named Hall and Eberle on that list.
Wanner, not Wenner.
From yesterday’s thread late night re: Foegele. The sweetener doesn’t surprise me. He makes real coin the next two years and its nearly a million/season bump from last years salary.
JP cap dump to Anaheim for less than a mid-2nd rounder? So we’re back to where we were in June before JP signed a nice deal. But instead of claiming his teammates want him gone, now its JP that wants out and that’s the way it is. I’ll take the bet he stays, but its not a large bet.
Meh run the cap hell risk, throw a veteran on LTIR during the season to give you some flexibility and play musical chairs with everyone who can be buried. All bonus overages can be covered next year with opening cap space so whatever. Not ideal but not a death knell either.
I start Foegele and Shore in the minors.
1.. Getting all those rookie bonuses covered is worth it over the course of the year
2.. Would rather lose Foegele to waivers than throw in a sweetener
I do wonder if getting Ben Bishop from Buffalo would change the math in the Oilers favour for this year. I don’t know the Cap implications well enough but 1 year of LTIR at $4.917 million might create the space needed to run a full roster.
Again, LTIR does create cap room. It giveth and it taketh away ay the same time. No effect on cap but makes in season trading much harder, which is already a problem with the LTIR we carry so no benefit to taking on more.
the other side of this is if you traded foegele for ben bishop the oilers would get rid of cap without taking on more real cap?
Ben Bishop is the new Player Development Director for the Dallas Stars.
Retired.
Do you mean the Ben Bidhop trade isn’t going to happen?
Trouble is that if/when Foegele clears, only $1.125 can be buried & he still counts $1.625 millioin against the cap.
1) I hope the Oilers don’t have a camp injury to a material player that will keep them out a min of 24 days AND 10 games.
2) As others have cleared up, adding an LTIR contract does not, itself, create any cap room. A massive myth that is propagated. Adding Bishop would allow the Oilers to go over the cap by more but it would add “that more” to the cap so it would be a net zero.
3) With that said, as I postulated over the last few weeks, if the Oilers traded Foegele for Bishop and a pick, that would open up $2.75MM of cap space.
4) Bishop has taken a position with the Stars but IS NOT retired. He will be on LTIR this year with an active contract. Think Chris Pronger working while not formally retired and on LTIR.
Don’t know why people can’t seem to wrap their head around the idea that LTIR does not magically create new cap space. OP is correct … Oilers would need to trade Foegele for Bishop to create 2.75 million dollars of cap space.
I think its because people sometimes it kind of does. If a current roster player gets hurt and goes on LTIR, it creates some cap space (how much depends on if the team is already using LTIR and “over the cap”).
I think a part of the issue is that many think that LTIR makes a cap hit go away whereas it does not – it just creates a reserve pool that will allow the team to spend more cap resources.