I wrote that a few months before the McDavid lottery, when just a sliver of sunshine peaked through the pouring rain. I remember writing passages like the one above and thinking ‘one day it’ll be opposite, the world will be mostly good and we’ll look for the rain’ and we are here. This Oilers team is 10-9-0 this season, and 4-6-0 in November. There are injuries, struggling rookies, hell struggling veterans, and the New Jersey Devils are flat out better than Edmonton. There are also some good signs. We saw some of them last night.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ lack of secondary scoring is a critical situation
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers trade targets from the AHL
- DNB:How Oilers star Connor McDavid went from poor to unreal in a pivotal win
- DNB and Jesse Granger: Is the Connor McDavid vs. Jack Eichel rivalry finally about to become reality?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers can replace Evander Kane’s production on a budget
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers need to trade for an established defenceman
- Lowetide: Five curious Oilers trends that may or may not regress
- Lowetide: What’s Xavier Bourgault’s NHL ETA? Does he get a look this season?
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s 40 saves lift Oilers over Panthers
- Lowetide: What should the Edmonton Oilers expect from Klim Kostin?
- DNB: Oilers’ Evander Kane hospitalized after skate blade cuts his arm
- Lowetide: Oilers top prospect is unclear for the first time in a dozen years
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- DNB: Ryan Smyth on Oilers memories, keepsakes and the current team: Q&A
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers start October slow but finish month strong
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: NAS, NJD, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- On the road to: WAS, TBY, CAR, FLA (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: LAK, VEG (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected (1-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: FLA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI (Expected (1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- November expected result: 7-4-3, 17 points in 14 games
- Actual November results: 4-6-0, 8 points in 10 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 10-9-0, 20 points in 19 games
Edmonton is on an 86-point pace now, that means the team will need one or two winning streaks of significance in order to make the postseason. Injuries have taken their toll. Since Evander Kane went down, the team is 2-3-0, Edmonton was 8-6-0 before that game. Two more wins this month are needed, a third would represent a solid finish. The Oilers have fallen behind Calgary in winning percentage, that should be motivation.
SUMMARY
- FIRST NJD GOAL: Power-play goal, perfect execution and the Oilers didn’t lay a glove on anyone. Fantastic shot by Jesper Bratt, don’t think anyone gets a specific rage in the cage moment although you’d like someone to interfere somewhere (Derek Ryan couldn’t impact the play). Credit to the other guy on this play.
- SECOND NJD GOAL: Dawson Mercer benefits from Stuart Skinner’s miscue with the puck. No mystery here.
- THIRD NJD GOAL: Some nice passing by the Devils, I thought Skinner either overcommited or lost his balance on the goal. Forwards (Jesse Puljujarvi) were in place but couldn’t impact progress in any way.
- FOURTH NJD GOAL: Tomas Tatar with an effective shortening up on the bat to punch a single through the middle, the shot came off an enormous rebound. Surprised Tatar got such good wood on it. A real Rod Carew.
- FIFTH NJD GOAL: Tyson Barrie turns over the puck in the neutral zone going the wrong way, Kulak gets high sticked on the follow through and it was pretty close to a perfect shot from my end.
- Skinnner needed Nos. 2, 3 and 4. I think two of those goals were on the goalie.
THOUGHTS
- Jesse Puljujarvi picked up an assist and aided the Draisaitl goal in a big way. Encouraging game for a man who looks like he’s lost some of his enthusiasm. He’s hitting more, but is also using his body effectively. It was an encouraging evening for the big man, he is 1-3-4 in 19 games. I bet his second quarter of the season is far more productive offensively.
- Cody Ceci was productive by eye and numbers. Picked up an assist, played a solid positional game, and despite losing the shot metrics badly, came out 1-1 at five-on-five.
- Klim Kostin took an early penalty but drew one later and had an excellent chance to score. Got lost in the dizzying line shuffle to my eye, but performed well enough to stay on the third line (whatever it may be).
- Ryan McLeod had one shot, a HDSC that did everything but go in the net. He was active but didn’t move the puck in a productive way the few times he owned it.
- Dylan Holloway had one HDSC and 57 percent expected goals on the night. He spent 30 seconds five-on-five with McDavid, 3-0 Corsi events and 2-0 shots.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 3-4-7 in his last six games and is getting lots of chances. Even more impressive, at least for me, is his strong PK work. He is the one forward who seems to recognize the check down move when a forward passes over into his area. RNH slides right into the correct spot like a champion. I love watching this player. He led the Oilers with seven shots and three HDSC last night.
- Markus Niemelainen crushed a couple of guys and had a clean slate on the evening defensively. Made some rookie decisions but they didn’t cost the team. He’s coming along, I would like to see him play more (7:42).
- Connor McDavid was his usual brilliant self, could have scored more but the hockey Gods are in love with the Devils (??) currently. I think the Oilers could have achieved a result in this game if Skinner stops goals two and four, plus the hockey Gods give 97 even a fair shake on his looks.
- Mattias Janmark was productive, he had one shot, a high-danger chance, and drew a penalty. Blockedn a shot, too. He has some utility.
- Darnell Nurse played miles of minutes and lost the Corsi, shot and goal metrics five-on-five. I think he was too passive, clearing the puck quickly, gloving it into the corner, when there was time to make a more productive play. I’m a fan of this player, but on the night he seemed so aware of the Devils speed he got caught doing nothing instead of something.
- Zach Hyman was quiet for the most part in terms of shots and chances, still worked hard and played high energy game all the way through.
- Leon Draisaitl scored a goal, four shots, HDSC and drew a penalty. He’s a wonderful player and I expect his goal differential (currently 16-18, 47 percent) will improve as the season wears along. He didn’t turn over the puck much (once to my eye) and that’s usually a sign of good work ahead.
- Evan Bouchard had an assist and a 72 percent shot share, those are good things. For the season, his goal share five-on-five is 32 percent and his expected goals percentage is 54 percent. Hold tight, rock steady. Regression should kick in soon.
- Brett Kulak was 0-2 goals and didn’t do much with the puck. He and Nurse had the same game in a way. Too passive.
- Warren Foegele hit some people and had the remnants of chances but couldn’t find a way. Best look was driving through the goalmouth but he didn’t have control of the puck.
- Tyson Barrie has enjoyed a good start to the season, but his lack of speed was exposed by the bullet train Devils. His turnover on the fifth goal represented Edmonton’s night: Good intentions, a momentary lapse, that’s all she wrote.
- Ryan Murray’s shot metrics are dreamy, 10-4 shots at five-on-five while he was on the ice. He has some puck-moving acumen but defensively I don’t think he’s the solution. He’s 5-9 goals at five-on-five this season.
- Stuart Skinner had a poor outing. Six of his 10 starts have been quality, and this is the first game where we can calculate the loss with a large dollop of blame to him, so let’s move on because the kid has been money.
JAKOB CHYCHRUN
Jacob Chychrun played last night, the numbers look good (50 percent shot share five-on-five, 0-1 goals, 57.4 percent expected goals) and I don’t think he’s coming to Edmonton. Then again, general manager Ken Holland doesn’t want to be in chase mode and the Oilers are kind of there now. Edmonton has made the postseason in each of Holland’s seasons.
OILERS BY THE NUMBERS
- Winning Pct: .526 (No. 5 Pacific)
- Corsi five-on-five: 48.3 Pct (No. 6 Pacific)
- Shots five-on-five: 46.8 Pct (No. 7 Pacific)
- Goals five-on-five: 43.4 Pct (No. 7 Pacific)
- EXP goals five-on-five: 47.4 (No. 6 Pacific)
- Save Pct five-on-five: .913 (No. 3 Pacific)
- PP goals-per-60: 12.96 (No. 1 Pacific)
- PK GA per 60: 11.5 (No. 6 Pacific)
- Overall goal share: 48.9 (No. 3 Pacific)
- Overall SP: .894 (No. 4 Pacific)
The Oilers are in the second half of the division in some important areas, but the standings situation (Edmonton is No. 9 in the wild card standings, percentage points behind Calgary) still has them running with the pack. The power play is grand and the PK is docile, need to improve the four-by-five. The five-on-five save percentage is top three, but little else is positive. Is it time to panic? No.
CALM YOUR TITS!
For those who hate watch the Oilers, the current events are high times. I don’t believe Oilers fans should panic, there are issues to be solved and (as I mentioned last week) a trade for defensive help should be the priority. If Philip Broberg is the answer, then fly him across country today.
In today’s cover photo, I quoted a piece from February 2015. That was a time when today’s vitriol toward the Oilers was warranted. They were bad, were about to trade the best defenseman on the team (Jeff Petry) and there was no hint of McDavid. In a way, the moment memorialized in the cover quote is the opposite of today.
Edmonton lost to the hottest firecracker on the hockey planet, and if the goaltending had been at normal levels maybe they grab a point in the swamp. You are seeing chaos defensively, because too much is being asked of everyone. This team is struggling, and injuries plus schedule have turned November into a gale to remember. Don’t give up on this group. There’s just too much good, and the management is all-in on the season. Take heart. Ignore the acid death metal verbal. That’s my advice.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We’ll have a look at the Oilers last night, 10-2 on TSN1260. We’ll also talk about the major World Cup upset this morning and how much torque that might give Canada (anything is possible!). Steven Sandor will join us at 10:20 to talk Eddies and World Cup. Glen Suitor talks classic Grey Cup at 11. Bruce Arthur is expected. At noon, it’s France versus Australia at the World Cup. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon.
attention Jethro Tull:
When was the last time England had striker who could control the ball and score??? Never??
@ LOWETIDE: seeing how we are now at some form of Ground Zero situation as the Oilers slump to 10-9 lmao
we are on the brink of mcleod JP and yamo ( back from injury) being unable to be on pace for a 20 point season
but dear me, McDavid being on pace for a 160+ season is truly the issue with this team
my bad
Edmonton deserves the results it gets from the Oilers with how they treat the contributors of success
and truly a large part of this is
as much as this is a math blog
its people providing statistics without playing the game or any game
besides the game of boardrooms and company conference calls
“OMG MCDAVID DOESNT HAVE A HIGH 5X5/60 ON A .500 TEAM”
no shit
FYI, 5 of the top 7 point producers at 5 on 5 are on PIT, SJS, BUF, MTL
I play the real game of life, but in this context I have little value around here.
Dude, give it up – I NEVER said that.
I remember that one early season game against Jersey in 2018-19.
We lost 5-2. The Devils looked like they belonged in league above us. Everyone on their team was so fast. Miles Wood looked like a poor man’s McDavid.
Oddly, the Devils finished that season in 26th while we finished in 12th.
Still, it’s disconcerting that the Oilers, even with injury troubles, are struggling so much this year.
Kulak is probably slotted too high.
Campbell was a small sample size bet with some red flags like a poor HDSV% IIRC and he’s struggled.
Too much porridge in the bottom six as always…
I dont think ive wanted anyone on the oilers more than miles wood for the past 3-4 years
also “kulak is probably slotted too high:” is fact, and if you don’t have an overperforming 2LD
youre going nowhere in this league
Woodguy. where’s that guy btw.
He had this theory years ago, and I’m butchering it with my recall, that basically you need four actual, bonafide NHL defenseman, or you generally don’t make the playoffs.
He even posted his usual detailed analysis to support this theory.
Kulak isn’t a bonafide top 4 d. That’s a problem.
i mean kulak is a top 4 D in a lowest common denominator sort of way
not in a
win the stanley cup kind of way
Woodguy’s old theory was based on a player having an established level of ability. That meant having played top 4 minutes in the prior season(s) along with having success in that role (various advanced metrics).
Kulak does not meet that criteria. He was on the bottom pairing last year with the odd move up the lineup.
Barrie is also a bottom-pairing guy at this stage.
Ceci was a 4/5 before he joined the Oilers and has been tasked with playing on the top pairing.
Not to mention that Bouchard is currently playing AHL caliber(arguably), Ceci is a good top 4-but not 1st pair, Barrie is playing top four but should be a top six and Nurse is playing like a top four, when he was expected to play top pair. Too many are playing too high. Causing fits defensively. Not nearly enough depth here. An injury to any of Nurse or Ceci/Kulak even for a few weeks will sink any chance of playoffs. I knew the d was not looking great before the season, but never dreamed it could be this bad. Goaltending is not helping, and neither are the forwards.
Oilers missed the playoffs by a mile in 18/19.
I don’t think the Oilers have finished 12th in McDavid’s time. 7th in 16/17. 9th, and 11th twice.
It’s disconcerting to me that the Oilers are headed for yet another finish either outside the top ten or on the fringe.
While its not impossible for a team to win the Cup from a lower seed, teams that do win Cups generally have some very high league finishes leading up to their Cups, eg 1st, 3rd, 5th,etc.
Regular season success shows which teams are the strongest. Teams that finish at the top of the league tend to win the Cup. We haven’t seen the Oilers with a great regular season since the 80s.
When is this Oilers team going to show its quality? They are running out of time.
Sorry, that was an error. The Oilers were 12th by points percentage in 2019-20, not 2018-19.
That’s a good point. We’re not there.
Kesselring does it again, a seeing-eye writer finds a way in for his seventh to tie the game up in the third.
Whoa, holy hell, Bourgault scores like 10 second later to give the Condors the lead.
A shot from the slot by Tulio that Brossoit can’t handle and Bourgault slams in the junk rebound.
Game winner.
Rodrigue stops 31 of 33 – solid.
I wonder how much the org factored in the significant injuries to 2 of the top 3 players into their summer
Significant in terms of skating. A high ankle and hip flexor
I guess Holland thought not 100% but would come around by playoffs
Thinking they were good enough to get there despite
Risky for a widely credited low risk guy, like signing Campbell to 5 with other options available that were as decent a bet and required less term and money, on a cap strapped team
Turns out he was wrong about quality. They’ll get better and even out, but if they were higher quality the start would have been better
My concern is their continuing issue with pro players. Janmark wasn’t bad, but it seems they are still going on rep too much (guide and record book) and being well liked, as opposed to finding underutilized or undervalued talent
from risk assessment id say the % chance they both got injured is low
the risk one did is why nuge exists
to commenters:
blah blah blah he signed for less
he’s 2c cover; and priced for that
Hi folks. New here but have read the blog and comments for years. Opinions vary, and this is necessary, and often even opposing arguments are true. I think Lowetide is the perfect host because he truly sees how two opposing arguments can both be true. This last game left me wondering. Is the possible answer here pessimism or optimism? Me thinks the middle ground is being realistic and to my eye, this team is chaotic, unstructured and without a rhyme or reason. Frankly, the two man show continues and these two men would be warranted to want a ticket out of town to a new team. Sad but realistic?
There are no guarantees about winning Cups
Especially split up
Most want out players are lifestyle seekers or US guys, or want more money, or are on a bad team for as long as Connor has been around the Oilers
Better the devil you know if things are moving forward
Even if it’s not fast enough for me
Id run this next game
Janmark mcdavid hyman
Holloway drai foegle
Kostin nuge Puljujarvi
Benson mcleod Ryan
substitute Holloway and McLeod if you like
exactly what id do
its balance for what we have
idgaf about mcd/drai points at this moment
it aint the year mcd is gonna get 180 (i hope he does in the future)
I like it
Judging by practice today, Foegele up to 1LW and Jesse to 2RW – Janmark with McLeod/Kostin on 3rd line.
hence why he stated “I’d run this” not “the team is running this”
This is not what I would do
as per usual with dips in play/losing streaks;
oilers fans go through the same thing:
1) the defense sucks (probably true)
2) no it’s goaltenders (id say no)
3) the stars are cheating for offense! (offense is offense. you dont ask a wolf to be a squirrel)
4) the GM is outdated in strategy! (I think Holland is what edmonton needs. A consistent and respected leader at the helm.)
5) the coach doesnt have a clue what he’s doing! (Woodcroft is new, he lead an underperforming team to the conference finals on 2/3 his best players last legs)
6) our favourite prospects arent accomplishing what they need to (the acceptance phase)
don’t turn this blog back into a supporting force that landed us spooner by trading eberle away (not that any of the underperforming assets are eberle, or this blog was for spooner but anti-strome and anti-eberle vitriol did exist)
its quarter of the way through the season, the GMs job besides waivers and prospect management is done til february
its up to the coaches and players til then
I dont blame woodcroft
nor do I McD or Drai, toss in nuge hyman and nurse as well
blaming the face cards in your hand because you could have made a low card straight is loser talk
to go on the analogy,
the devils made a 7-J straight flush
Per Mike Griffith:
Bailey-McKegg-Griffith
Benson-Hamblin-Tullio
Lavoie-Esposito-Bourgault
McPhee-Philp-Kambeitz
Demers-Kesselring
Broberg-Kemp
Peters-Brubacher
Rodrigue
Emergency back up with Pickard injured?
Fanti is the backup.
I’m guessing that Rodrigue playing tonight is a good indicator Campbell is A-OK to backup tomorrow. Glad the ‘eye’ injury isn’t as severe feared.
For all we know, Campbell starts tomorrow – I mean, he practiced today…..
Didn’t realize he practiced today, good to hear.
Also having a weak D corp affects the bottom 6 scoring
Stable team play and players hitting defensive assignments reliably, leads to offense for most players
This is why only the exceptional and sometimes their linemates can produce for us
And why other teams seem to have better players on their bottom roster. Some do yes, many don’t. Which is why they go away for us and suddenly seem good and productive and useful
I think the negativity came hard earned
Holland did nothing to address what are obviously key roster issues that are mentioned by multiple guests on our favourite 1260 show and the others
Should we expect a move? Maybe, but I think we all expect it to be piss weak and largely inconsequential. This is the problem
I hate watching other team’s GMs that don’t have the dynamic duo running circles around our org
The excuses make it worse – the cap, you need someone to deal with, you can’t get good players for nothing, etc etc
Well Toews cost 2 seconds. Not bad for a top pair D signed at 4.1M cap hit. The thing is you have to be able to tell the difference between Toews and Tyson
The excuses remain but daylights burning
I don’t expect every player to be lights out, no team’s players are for long at least. But they have enough right to keep winning many times
You can’t change everything right now of course. So I’m ok with guys that aren’t paid like difference makers that most games are at least doing the right things and playing hard defensively regardless of productivity, baby steps
If they aren’t showing up mostly, doing that, what’s the point?
Also why bother with players with skating issues? The days of them being effective are long gone. Maybe a handful that can out think constantly losing foot races and battles left these days
Or they need an exceptional off setting skills, like superior finishing and reliable defensive ability
To those who’ve watched BAK games this year, what’s your read so far on Chaulk as a head coach?
Does he favour veterans too much? Is he bringing along the prospects with reasonable ice time in important deployment? I’ve heard the PK isn’t spectacular, is that tactics or personnel, or both?
Interested to get a read on him, he was working under WoodMan so he’d be familiar with the players. Should give a good indication of his style and tendencies.
I’m not a great one to analyze coaches but from a very high (and amateur) level, I’m not overly-enthused. Like Woody, he does rely on veterans. The likes of Malone, Esposito, Griffith, McKegg, Demers, etc. so lots of ice in important situations.
At the same time, he identified Bourgault very early and he’s been on the PK since the start (and PP2).
The likes of Tulio and Savoie see no more ice than the likes of Kambeitz and Esposito and get healthy scratched here or there. They have seen PP2 time but not a ton at evens.
The PK has been terrible but I can’t analyze structure thereon to say why. It was also poor under Woody/Manson over the years as well.
whether through scouting or other affects,
holland likes a winning AHL team.
through the years since 2002 (being affiliate to DET) til 2018
1, 2, 5, 1, 4, 5, 3, 7 , 6, 4 , 1, 2, 2, 4, 2, 2, 4
thats central division rankings
I would be interested in ahl/nhl winning % differentials for teams throughout the years
now take those numbers for what they’re worth; small sample size and classical statistical median vs mean.
maybe my point is too strong, but from eye, id say he belives a winning ahl team breeds prospects and bakersfield doing the same would result in past success (success for his tenure in DRW an issue)
Much appreciated, thanks.
Savoie scratched in favour of Kambeitz and McPhee….. Graham McPhee……
Wonder if there’s an undisclosed injury or malady of sorts.
Perhaps but I think Chaulk has been rotating the bottom of the roster since they got healthy – Tulio, Engras, Savoie, Kambietz, McPhee – all been scratched.
Can the bottom 6 be a primary problem with both McDavid and Drai are under 50% goal share?
The top 2 lines have not been good.
Depends on who gives up more.
I miss those running counts Woodguy used to post.
Probably won’t be regular, but:
97 —– 10-12
29 —– 13-16
97+29 – 3-2
71 —— 4-8
14 —— 2-2 (+1 from 71-14 goes to 71)
Other — 1-3
Everything (Devin Shore aside!) has been a problem.
i hope you can post these every game day !!
Well, both McDavid and Drai have given up more than they’t provided when on the ice…… for me, those two lines have to be 55%-60% at evens for this team to be a contender.
I hope you’d agree the defense and goaltending have been a factor in those numbers.
not just goaltending and defense, but QoC and time on ice
forget not just having the two top scorers in the league, but afflicting blame on the team losing on them
the team is as deep as a kiddies pool
Of course, as have their wingers, and, of course, the centers themselves have not been nears consistent with defensive structure.
At the end of the day, this team goes nowhere without McDavid and Drai been large outscores at 5 on 5, right?
I think the Oilers are still figuring out the lines because of the noise on defense and in goal.
For instance, McDavid-Hyman are 11-8 together, that’s 58 percent goal share five-on-five. Draiasitl-Kane was 8-5 (61.5 percent) before the injury. Edmonton needs some help to bridge the gap to Kane’s return, but there’s plenty there and Woodcroft is figuring out this roster.
It’s on all 6 players LT … as much as we praise McDavid and Draisaitl for their individual brilliance, we should also recognize that they can be and have been responsible for some of the poor defensive play as well. These two handle the puck more than anyone else on the team … and they have both been turning the puck over a lot. They make a lot of risky low percentage plays … and this team goes as they go.
I’d like to see both of them simplify things … shoot when they get open looks, rather than try to pass the puck in to the net. Move the puck to open space before they get swarmed when they cross the blueline and let their wingers skate into the open ice that they’ve created (rather than try to go 1-on-3 and then try a low percentage pass that gets picked off and goes the other way). Stay high in the offensive zone at 5v5 and be ready to cover defensively. Attack the centre of the ice, rather than zipping around the perimeter.
They’ve done this in spurts, most notably after Woody was hired, but they’ve gotten away from it.
Whatever on ice voodoo Bergeron has, I’d like for Connor and Leon to channel it into their games.
not shooting with open looks from mcd/drai is your problem with the team?
maybe bias in team performance comes from % of your eyes on screen towards players
mcd/drai both leading in points, game after game creating unreal goals and scoring chances,
but them not “shooting on open looks” is the problem
McDavid is tied for 82nd and Drai at 123rd for P/60 at 5 on 5 and on ice GF/60 they are ranked 218th and 98th.
On the PP, they are off the charts but, at 5 on 5, they are creating nearly enough goals (and giving up too many).
so mcdavid is the 82nd best scorer in the league?
well he isn’t
obtaining value from that stat isn’t doing anything
nor is blaming the team’s failure on his shoulder’s
wow 5v5/60
so much different than +/-
I was responding to a post about all these goals he’s creating – well, its just not true at 5 on 5.
Neither he, personally, not the team when he’s on the ice is scoring enough at 5 on 5 (or keeping the puck out of their own net enough).
Happy to use just straight points – McDavid is tied with the likes of Pieterangelo, Tatar, Brock Nelson, Kevin Hayes and various others for 35th in the NHL with 11 points at 5 on 5.
Neither the Drai nor McDavid lines (nor them individually) are scoring enough.
I’m not blaming the team’s problems on them necessarily but this team goes nowhere without these guys materially outscoring and, right now they aren’t and are getting outscored.
It can be… Mcdavid and Draisaitl trying to force things because again, they know if they don’t score they lose cause they sure as hell know the bottom six isn’t scoring goals
mcdavid or drai having to force things is not on those two
thats a symptom
no team in the NHL should be .500 with the top two scorers in the league
besides Edmonton
its astonishing the people here watch the game the oilers play and come to the conclusion mcd and drai are the problem
what are mcleods jp ky bouchard 5v5/60
“no! these prospects i watched in the AHL are awesome! They are not replacement level! its our generational players that arent backchecking!”
Pointing out that they are getting outscored and not producing at expected levels at 5 on 5 does NOT equate to saying they are THE problem.
Do you think the team can have success with those two getting outscored at 5 on 5?
theres a middle statistic which is involved
win percentage
McD and Drai’s 5×5/60 is both a result and a factor from and for said %
them not producing if you want to tackle the solution from that end has merit
I would argue, which ive seen with evidence, their 5×5 production is boosted by auxillary production
now
you can take that two ways
are mcdavid and drai scoring more 5×5 hence other people do
or others score 5s5 opening up mcd and drai scoring 5×5 as well?
I will side on the former.
I would argue that on-ice play drives winning percentage, not the other way around.
And I’ve already acknowledged that linemates is a factor.
this discussion needs to continue tomorrow.
both sides have a good point ,,,,,
I side with protect the stars …not sure what PDO they are rocking, but that’s a starting point.
for years Hall was considred “a loser player”; seems he’s doing fine on a deep Boston team .. McD and Drai have limited quality help. Pulu and Yamo were supposed to be Top 6 players as we entered this season. 1 combined goal ….
give me PDO, give me context. add Kane injury and weak D play both ways; and you have 2 superstars struggling to stay aflota 5×5. To me it’s more of an inditement of the TEAM than the 2 stars.
you have two of the best players if not THE best players in history playing on a .500 team
but its their scoring thats an issue??
OP really is on the side of; McD.drai 5×5 is lacking and somehow that is afflicting loved prospects scouted in the AHL and beyond doing absolutely nothing in the NHL
Wild wild interpretations.
Here’s a counterpoint – the best players in the game have been ultimately been judged on what they won. McDavid and Draisaitl haven’t won any championships of note since they turned pro. That’s not a criticism levied completely at their feet alone, just a fact. And until both of them become more consistently responsible with the puck at 5v5, this team will continue to struggle to be a consistent winner. Every high octane scorer goes through this and eventually transforms their game … I like to call it the Yzerman metamorphosis… toning their game back a bit on offence (less individual efforts) to focus on become 2-way beasts.
McDavid and Draisaitl have shown glimpses of becoming that, but the bad habits have crept back into their games.
They are magnificent talents … but they are not close to being the best THE best players in history … they, like the rest of the team, can be better.
I’m not questioning whether they can … we’ve already seen it. I am questioning whether our current coaching staff is going to get any more of that out of them.
the HHOF just deducted 4 players, all of whom never won a Cup. That metric is dated. When there was 6, 12 & 21 teams that was a “standard” and the dinosaurs that continue to believe that metric matters are diminishing. There are 32 teams now.
do the math. on basic logic, you have a 1 out of every 32 years chance to win the Cup. Average career? 5 year? average star career 12 years? superstar 20? so the odds of winning a Cup are 3% on straight odds each year.
If McD and / or Leon can win 1 Cup it will be unreal. The odds are against them. Just like the 4 HHOF that just went in
Hey you guys want to buy the Senators together?
Having perused HF Boards where they want to tar and feather Holland, shooting half the team into the sun; and then Lowetide where opinions run from no matter how they play everything is perfectly okay to the sky is falling although never as badly as on HF Boards.
HF Boards can be hilarious during a loss, thanks to the impassioned comments. Lowetide seems more depressing and akin to shovelling fleas across a barnyard, since in the end no one has any input on the actual running of the team.
Having read everyones opinion, the most rational one of all is the side that holds about 8 of the Oilers beyond reproach – followed by an extremely underperforming everyone else. We all know who they are its no harder than checking the statistics of goals and assists.
These underperforming Oilers are having the effect of tarring the entire organization in question marks. Woodcroft looks out of his depth all of a sudden although its patently a General manager problem to provide the experienced defence which Darnell(1.5X Horcoff) Nurse although still a good player cannot yet deliver.
In conclusion, and unless they turn these bottom of the order players plus the defence around this team is in danger of losing another season.
I think you’ve grown tired of the blog, hunter. That’s not about the Oilers.
You’re right, but the Oilers continue to disappoint. That’s very much about the Oilers.
A quarter of the way in to the season and the team has under-performed expectations as a whole. What about individually?
Outperformed Expectations:
Skinner
Nuge
Hyman
Performed Near Expected:
Kane
Drai (point totals are there but he’s negative goal differential and that is a big problem)
McDavid (same as Drai – I almost put him at outperformed given the increased PK)
Ceci
Foegele
Shore
Barrie
Niemalainen
Performed Below Expectations:
Campbell
Nurse
Bouchard
Kulal
Yamamoto
Puljujarvi
McLeod
Ryan (expected better PK)
Jamark
Murray
Broberg
Missing anyone?
Anyone wrongly categorized?
Janmark has be near expected (or too small sample to judge).
McDavid may be sawing off on Goal Share but I believe his CF% and CFrel% are strong. I put him in the outperform.
otherwise, pretty accurate and pretty damning … too many “below expectations”
Janmark’s sample size is too small because he was in the minor leagues for most of the season. Yes, much of that was cap reasons but, still, he got cut from the team and has only played a handful of games.
I think this is pretty bang on. I was hoping Ceci might hold his own paired with Nurse, but because Nurse is much below expected, Ceci is not able to hold his own. I think you are missing a way way way below expectation category. Bouchard has been a train wreck imo. Bouch and Holloway are both no better than good AHLers at the moment. Ymmv. It’s what my eyes see. Unfortunately there is nobody to take their places. What I thought should be the deepest team Oiler fans have seen in years has now turned out to be little, or, no depth at all. Even if Kane/yammo were to return tomorrow, it will do very little to improve the defensive depth. There are simply not enough NHL dmen on the big club. The ones that are established NHLers are playing too far up the lineup and it’s not really fair to expect a Ceci or Kulak to play top pair. They never were, and probably never will be first pairing. Except on this team, this year. Because there is nobody else. Imagine an injury to Ceci, Nurse, Kulak. Strange that a Ken Holland team has only 3 quality top 6 dmen.
While I am reading many good and valid points from Oiler fans, I do find some funny such as “they need to score first” as its simply an obvious statement such as “they need to win games” and offers nothing. It is figuring out the why behind the problem that is the challenge.
I would say that while the roster can be improved, as all can, it is a better roster than we are seeing. It is a better roster than the devils with a much worse result. I see holes, but I see enough talent to succeed. And making a trade, adding a player in itself is not going to turn this team around.
We already know the problems.
Poor, poor defensive coverage. Absolute non commitment to the backcheck, to defensive coverage. Puck watch and wave your stick is not the way. Commitment here will result in wins.
Every goal has to be a beauty? Guess what? Average teams have average defensemen, taking average shots from the point with average players providing screen, netfront pressure and rebound recovery. And this all adds up to outscoring Connor and Leon. You don’t have to be a star player to score, just do the right things, the rest of the league is doing it, and its enough to beat Oilers star power.
Oilers have become predictable and one dimensional. The fact that the offense is creative – is the weakness. Its a given and its expected. Dealing with power forwards crashing the net would be an absolute shock to opponents.
Oilers offense is a keep away game with low scoring potential. Others team look quickly for opportunity – shot, opportunity – shot. repeat. Meanwhile McDavid is circling the offensive zone for the third time while his linemates watch.
Defensively the book is out, and its a best seller.
Good news – these things can be adjusted.
Puck management? barf.
I think Woodcroft is quite brilliant, perhaps hes not tough enough. Lack of commitment, poor repeated decisions, or insufficient desire needs corrected. If that means Malone lines up as first line center, so be it.
It’s a false dichotomy to say they can’t be creative and have to play more straight ahead/simple.
They need to do both to be successful. Establish straight ahead play early, take shots, crash the net. Then the ice opens up for creativity.
I agree with a lot of what you say, but it’s not corrxt to say they should trade creativity for simplicity. Out of simplicity comes the opportunity for creativity. In no world do I want this team to stop with the high skills plays, they just need to mix it up more.
Yes and Yes, thats what Im attempting to say. Lots of words and you swoop in with the Coles notes!
Edmonton needs to score first
They just need to win
Power play needs to shoot.
Tough to criticize the PP when its 0.4% off of the best PP% of all time……
I know, it may not always look pretty and, of course there will be “ugly PPs” but it scores goals.
If your the Coach this is concerning. Why oh why are we always chasing from behind this needs to become a vocal point for Woody and the Club. The ability to not score first may cost Woody’s one and only chance of Coaching in the N.H.L.
I think the Oilers have scored first in 8 of the 20 games. Its not good enough but I think the facts are being exaggerated here.
a 40% team is good enough for you?
should literally be 70-80%
or 80-100% improvement
Ummm, I said “not good enough” right in my post.
I send by my comment as this poster has been railing on it for a week now and making it seem like they’ve scored first like twice this season.
One thing Woodcroft did to great effect last season was to continually make the picture small.
He’s got away from that this season.
At the start of the 17-18 season, after the playoff run in 17, coach MacLellan blundered by filling the athletes heads with the unhelpful, “we have to manage expectations “. Terrible. That was his main message for training camp.
This year, one of the main themes I heard during trading camp was, “don’t repeat 17-18”. Terrible.
Now, to be fair, I don’t know if this was player driven, media driven or coach driven but Woodcroft needed to stomp that negative messaging out.
In my opinion, especially now, they would do well to make the picture small again for the players.
It takes the worry away and let’s them apply themselves positively.
Every team has injuries…..
Jets best player has been out weeks. Expected to be out much longer.
Getting tired of the excuses, frankly.
Called bingo last night just reading them off.
You mean we’ve used up the Flu card already. We still have the Sad card to play.
Is there anything sadder in sport than to be an ascending or contending team and be passed by a team just coming out of their rebuild. Almost happened with the Kings last year and it’s pretty clear the Devils are the better team at the moment.
For some reason I HATE that. I can handle being worse than Colorado and Carolina but NJ? Yuck.
Don’t worry. We are only 8 years into the McDavid rebuild….
Since Chiarelli set things back rather than actually building, IMO it’s more accurate to look at the Holland hire as the beginning of this rebuild (hired the same time Dellow by NJ).
Jersey has also only made the playoffs once in 10 seasons (5 game exit), so it’s not like they’ve made short work of the process.
Agree it’s galling how good Jersey looks right now though.
We always have Columbus.
A couple of sad teams, really for the last decade.
Edmonton was 16-5 at the quarter-pole last year.
New Jersey has the mojo but they’ll come back to earth.
Honestly I feel we’ve played close games lately with Carolina, Jersey, Vegas, and Tampa. In 6 games we’re 3-2-1 against those teams. The competition has been stiff lately but the Oilers have held in there.
Well there are 30 other teams behind New Jersey right now …. so if that is your metric ……
I thoroughly enjoy watching Dellow’s Devils play the game. High skill, high speed, attention to detail, etc. Quite the squad.
Credit to Fitzgerald, Lindy, and Dellow. A quarter of a way in to the season and the Devils look like a wagon.
They just look- so fast.
I don’t know if I understand how that D….can keep it going.
I mean – even Smith looked like a competent defender.
And Jack Hughes and Simon Nemec should join that D corp next season.
Oh my.
Pretty sure Jack Hughes is already there
screw those guys
They are a well coached team.
Leafs lose Reilly to LTIR with a knee injury.
Some thin DCorps on that team
And yet their record is better than ours. Time to stop making excuses.
Where in the Sam Hill is H.H? I need to know which teams he’s placing his units on at the World Cup and then I’ll bet the exact opposite just like opposite George.
Argentina, that is evident.
Pretty sure he’s been well represented. He wouldn’t miss the fun after an Oilers loss.
“I bet his second quarter of the season is far more productive offensively” Hopefully he keeps building those expected goal values with Columbus. Still no actual goals.
Hopefully he gets back to his 20 goal pace from the previous 2 seasons.
Should of traded the 3M gang when we had the chance. There’s lots of wily veterans 27-30 you could pick-up for a Mil a year. I’ll place a few units on Yamamoto topping out at 20 I can’t see him hitting that earth shattering mark ever again. How hard was it for Holland to pick-up a few Patty Maroons in the off-season. We are soft as butter teams must love playing us.
I was actually thinking the exact opposite. Assuming they return to being the players they’ve been, they’re going to be damn useful with Kane out for half the season.
I do think Yamo scores 20 again. It also doesn’t sound like any return for them would have moved the needle much.
And it’s great to say get a $1M veteran, but they don’t turn out to be worth more than $1M all that often, even though we talk about the ones that do for years.
Wingers weren’t really tradable, after the fact…. so the realistiv question is:
Would you have qualified yam and puj or not?
In hindsight, at present, that seems easy (given underperforming last season rates and subsequent super deals of cheap free agent wingers).
But:
Are you really not going to qualify a younger guy who put 20 goals in last year and is well liked as a linemate/teammate?
Are you really not going to qualify a guy who was on a really solid pace until.injury/recovery sewered season a bit?
To be replaced with unknowns lacking foresight of there being some fairly decent options signing well below assumed market value at time decsion required to qualify or not….
1. Easy to say now?
– maybe
2 Disingenuous to reality of decision at time required to qualify? – Definitely.
Revisionist history is not really much use for anything.
People here were completely convinced that Holland was going to trade Jesse, some so much so that no amount of rational discussion could persuade them otherwise until he played his first game of the season.
The bets made by the GM were, if taken individually case by case, all reasonable. But almost the entire roster is underperforming expectations … is that really on the GM?
if the GM crafted a playoff bound team, which he did
if the coach showed he can coach an underperforming team to the playoffs, which he did
what does that leave?
the players
is it the big names leading the league in scoring who are doing so both in physically unseen and (relatively) statistically means?
or the ones not pulling weight?
and if the latter, why?
I was hoping some kind of deal might manifest between Seattle and edmonton.
Yamamoto
Barrie
For
A respectable defensive option and cap (soucy)
Seattle’s pp was hot garbage last year and bringing a young hometown winger into fold might have appeal.
I would have been willing to even throw a up to a 3rd round pick in. I I really wasn’t a fan of the defense makeup and was reasonably confident Bouchard could do decent enough job pp1.
No idea if there was a way to make this happen but it seemed like a reasonable scenario before Seattle chewed up its free cap.
LW Kane, nuge/McLeod, foegle
RW hyman, puj, Ryan
C Mccheatcode, drai, nuge/McLeod
Nurse ceci
Soucy Bouchard
Kulak broberg
Whatever else might fit with roster larger than 21.
While Seatle may, or may have, interest in Yamamoto, he isn’t “hometown” to Seattle.
He’s from Spokane which is farther from Seattle than Calgary from Edmonton, much farther.
I like how you state “a few patty maroons”
as if they grow on trees
there is patrick maroon (who because of personal reasons left the team)
there isn’t just endless amounts of them or else every team would have them, making them net equal
glass half full:
1 major reason for optimism is the schedule after this road trip.
Early December has a 4 game home stand against Montreal, Washington, Arizona & Minny.
Looking well down the road, in the Oilers last 12 games they get San Jose – 3, Anaheim – 2, Arizona – 2. Those teams are already bad and assuming they sell off at the deadline, they should be AHL level by late March / early April.
🙂
Maybe we will see a back up goalie or two?
Niemo looked good last night. The best I’ve seen him play.
Those dumping on Holloway would do well to keep a player like this in mind. Rookies will frustrate. It’s what they do. Then they’ll suddenly surprise you with a solid game.
Particularly for skill players, there comes a time when there’s a limit to what they can learn in the A. The first objective with Hollway is his defensive coverage. They’ll get that buttoned down I’m sure and then he can start picking his spots to attack.
Watching rookies figure it out is one of the best parts of fandom. You like these players even more once they become consistent contributors because you remember the Bambi legs when they first started.
Did Niemo? He threw two hits, both crunching, and those were great. One of them was on a great battle and cycle break – a very plus play but, of course, 5 seconds later, with time and space, an unforced turnover.
I loved those two hits but, in his 7 minutes, he did get caved and his expected goals were 15%, for that its worth.
Maybe it was spending 4 of his 7 minutes with Barrie who’s struggled both with Nimeo and with Kulak last night.
——
I thought Holloway looked good last night – mostly early and then faded but I felt he could have been elevated a bit.
I enjoyed his game. But I tend to be more forgiving of rookies. That’s kind of the point. Patience is a virtue.
I wouldn’t expect anyone to have great underlying numbers when the team as a whole was thrashed pretty soundly.
any part of you believe that your eye test toward niemo is guided by your fervant believe samo was the stronger long term bet and holland traded the wrong guy?
if so, thats been the problem within oilers MSM for years aka “GM didnt do what I want, I will tar feather the guy who took his place instead!”
I honestly do not believe I’m guided by that at all in my analysis – just judging the on-ice play as I see it (and as the numbers see it).
fair enough,
just saying you know i know you loved samo
and repeatedly announced you thought samo > niemo
that might affect your personal on ice perspective towards niemo
I did and I did.
I still do but, of course, Niemo is in the NHL and Sammy remains in the AHL (different orgs).
I try and be honest in assessment – I was one the agreed that Sammy was unplayable after his trio of errors in his one game, for example.
For me the most important stat for the Oilers is who scores first. Why can’t we score first we had the same problem with Tippett when he was Dead Man Walking. I really think everyone is overreacting this morning we’re in a funk but nothing a 5 game win streak won’t cure.
I’d settle for a 5 game point streak. This “every loss in regulation” business really stings.
Only 1 game has gone into OT that’s crazy. After saying this 7 of the next 10 will go to OT.
Id like to see 63 overtime games.
That would be 63 points.
With our top players I suggest we win 70% of OT. That is 45 more points.
63+45+ the 20 we already have and that is 128 point season! Winner Winner
Are you prepared for the style required to take 63 games to overtime … full on trap for a full 60 minutes? Do we think that this roster has the discipline to play such a style?
honestly would love woodcroft to force 1-2-1 trap on the team and shaming the players seeing mcd/drai points dry up while they win games to show the auxillary is the problem
10-5-4 looks much better on paper
When I watch this team it brings me back to high-school group projects. Mcdavid and drai are the straight A students that take the full project on themselves and not trust the team to do their own part.
The leadership of this team has to install a 6 man mindset. Play as one unit Excell as one unit.
Holy hell, didn’t take long for Oilers social media to refresh into a cesspool of grossness.
All the experts on coaching, team structure, motivation, management, etc. are out in full force.
Tit calming required – my goodness.
sorry, too many years of the same problems.
It’s a sign of major progress that the upset is now triggered as the team approaches the .500 mark.
Yep.
Campbell says he has a broken nose but otherwise feels fine.
Woody didn’t discount him starting tomorrow but needs to catch up with doctors, etc.
Thankfully, while he may miss a start here or two, he won’t be out long as Chaulk yesterday mentioned that Pickard is at least a couple of weeks away.
Speaking of AHL injuries, sounds like Deharnais’ is an infection related to his off-season surgery but he won’t be out too long.
no team in the NHL will be playoff bound if their bottom 6 rotating cast of characters ARE UNABLE TO SCORE. In the Pacific Division the Top Teams are getting contributions from the depth part of their lineups.
Vegas has CARRIER -6, ROY – 4, KOLESAR -4
L.A. has T MOORE -6, KALIYEV – 6, LIZZOTTE – 5, GRUNNSTROM – 4
Seattle has TANEV – 4, SPRONG – 3, GEEKIE – 4
Edmonton has
MCLEOD – 0 in 13 games
PULU – 0 in 12 games
HOLLOWAY – 0 in 15 games
SHORE – 0 in 16 games
YAMO – 0 in 13 games (now injured)
BOUCHARD – 0 in 19 games (D man, but plays 20 mins / night)
Ryan has 2 goals in 18 games. and FOEGLE has 3 goals but they have come only once elevated in the lineup.
The bottom half of the roster is literally generating ZERO offense for Edmonton.
You’re moving the goalposts by selectively choosing a random number of games for Oilers players, while referencing the whole season for other teams’ bottom six cohort. Same with including Bouchard.
Don’t get me wrong, the gist of your point is legit. These guys have to start producing at some point. Can’t always be the big guns, night in, night out.
well you can take out the # of games as you suggest.
you get McLeod 3 G, Pulu 1 G. The rest remain 0.
Bottom line is they are not getting a sniff from whoever is playing on lines 3 & 4 each game.
And to your point, it can’t always be the big guns, and so far this year, that’s pretty much what’s it been ….
Here is to Hoping somebody on that list can bang in 1 or 2 ….
You are right – the gist of his point is correct.
Oilers are 28th in goals against.
Why anyone would be talking about goals for befuddles me.
Cuz its entertaining….some guys pitching this many 0’s is almost impossible.
Like When Riley Sheehan scored with the Wings- other team cheered.
Did Nurse back in waaaaay too far on the 1st goal? That’s my opinion.
Time after time this season
He’s been awful … but he’s also being played far too much. On the other hand he’s being paid like a defenseman who can carry a team for 25+ minutes a game.
I honestly think we simply have too many players who don’t impact the game in a meaningful way.
Some if it’s on the young guys we had so much hope for to start the season;
Bouchard
McLeod
Holloway
JP
Yama
Some of these guys will have a good game, like JP last night, but overall they simply don’t impact the outcome in any real meaningful way. IMO Holloway and Bouchard still have plenty to give. Are we still waiting for JP and Yama to break out? They’ve had plenty of ice time with the two best players in the world. McLeod is still young, but IMO he can skate fast – that’s it.
We know who the core is;
McDavid
Drai
RNH
Hyman
Nurse
Ceci
Barrie
Kulak (maybe)
Outside these seven or eight guys, no one on the team is actually exceptional at anything. They don’t produce offence. They don’t provide defence. They don’t provide toughness. They don’t do much of anything really.
Throw Kane in there, though unavailable at the moment.
The balance photo is the result of what you describe. Team needs all elements.
I have been preaching the PK needs ownership. They were so proud and confident in the past, and Connor/Leon were not required. Own it. Same could be said of a third line. Find your identity and be the best at your job.
We’re a 2nd half club McDavid and Leon seem to elevate their game as the season goes on. I personally wouldn’t have started Skinner after he used up his lucky charms against Vegas but the bigger reason was he seived out against Jersey the last 5 minutes of the game 2 weeks ago against the same Jersey team. I thought last nights game came down to the giveaway not only did it put us behind but it killed our momentum.
Sometimes a team needs to step up for their goalie.
JP – His lone goal and last night’s assist came from the puck hitting him. No other skill involved in either. Your continued belief in this player is mind blowing. He is a bust of a pick and is what he is. A fourth line winger getting paid $3M.
We disagree. That’s okay.
I forget/can’t find what your RE for Jesse was this year and am wondering if you are sticking to it and will it be lowered for next year?
The RE has as its foundation the three previous seasons for individual players. So, yes.
I had him as 70, 19-22-41 this season.
https://theathletic.com/3525779/2022/08/22/edmonton-oilers-reasonable-expectations-2022-23/
How can you let your dog talk to you like that….?
My dog is the sweetest dog in history. No talk backs, just death stare.
Ryan Smith scored a lot of goals that way. You’re not wrong – Jesse has a muffin shot and poor anticipation in the offensive zone. But if he could commit to being a dog-on-a-bone in front of the net he has the size and speed to be effective in that role. Maturity has been a problem with this player, whereas Smyth very quickly understood what was going to be his meal ticket, Jesse has been slow to figure things out.
Smith – spelled SMYTH. Smyth also put up 39 Goals in his first full NHL season and never looked back … The 2 aren’t comparable.
Hello Munny! Enjoyed your post!
Were you old fogeys saying he quickly understood how to score goals when he scored 13 goals in his third or fourth season in the bigs?
My comment was simply addressing the spelling remark made by the prior poster. I am in no way equating Pujo to Smyth.
I wasn’t comparing Jesse to Smyth other than to say that Smytty was willing to consistently battle for every inch in front of the net, no matter how many chicklets he lost. Jesse still has a mouth full of perfect teeth. That battle level is what’s missing in Jesse’s game.
I prefer my original comparison of Jesse to Magnus Paajarvi.
2 goals don’t happen without Jesse’s effect on the play last night.
On the first one, the PP goal, he does a great job in net front puck retrieval battle to pop the puck out to retain possession and then the screen.
He had a great game in the offensive zone last night (although picked up some minuses on plays where he was in the picture – although not necessarily the primary culpable player.
… & knock down the guy who wound up deflecting the puck into his own net. Some good old-fashioned greasy play from the Finn at the net front was integral to both Oilers goals.
Maybe today isn’t the best day for folks to crap on him?
Was thinking the same. He had a legitimately good game last night.
Yeah, you would have thought his only goal, that he managed to touch ever so slightly, was on its way in regardless, was a stroke of luck. But his play last night was solid, I give him full credit for that.
As I saw it that goal at STL would not have gone in without that deflection. Binnington was on fire that game & was only beaten by a pair of mid-air tips by JP & RNH.
Probably the only way to know for sure is if he wasn’t so lucky as to touch that puck while it was on route to the net Bruce .
…
Try to limit yourself to one account, would ya?
Add this post to the “eye test guy is actually a box score guy” file
The Oilers defense can not handle the dump, speed and forecheck of most teams and teams are are exposing the Oilers to this every game.
keep forechecking and dumping the puck into the corners and the Oilers will spit the bit.
Defense needs a major overhaul quick.
The loss of Mike Smith in this area has been more impactful than projected…….
Not just Smith.27 games of Smith. Koskinen as well.
It’s one of reasons I think they are backing in. They are getting murdered in corners. Said it last night, will say it again. There’s a dramatic difference in goalies this season when it comes to puck retrieval.
While koskinen had some real butt clenchers playing puck – he was playing the puck a lot more than current duo. Even if it was just of the stopping it behind net and defenceman grabs static puck or just quick dish whatever direction seemed best open – that lead to much more stable and faster zone exit.
It shows most with Bouchard. But I see it on all of them. It’s a lot harder going in facing corner and turning around with puck to make breakout.
Add Keith gone on top who definitely still knew had to snap quality passes out with little risk – It’s a massive part of problem. Right down to pk.
Can anyone check zone time averages this year compared to last year?
I bet it’s pretty atark.
I agree with Stauffer on the 11-7 roster make up. If you need to split the 3rd pairing left side in two then maybe you should acquire a guy who can actually play 14 mins a night. 11-7 should only be used in an emergency if guys are injured. The Oilers have no injuries on D and they still can’t put 6 guys out there to get the job done.
Some of us have been saying for a while….7 D is silly.
New Jersey is a really good team right now. The home team, with an experienced coach got all the match ups last night. Give NJD their due.
Yes 13 wins in a row is no fluke. I thought we had a low event good road game going until the gift by Skinner.
LOL….They’ve used up all their luck, now they are going to lose 13 in a row.
They probably have the speediest team in the league. How good would Hamilton look on our squad. Their Goaltending was a definite weakness this is no longer the case.
hindsight is 20/20 but I sure wish we had Keith’s capspace for Keith and not injured Kane.
While I think Kane is inconsistent and somewhat over-rated as an offensive producer, I think his impact in the lineup is being evidenced with how the team has played since he’s been out….
They seemed to have a winning formula against the Golden Knights, I have to say, why did Woodcroft decide to change things up so drastically and go 11/7? Shuffling up all the lines and all forms of continuity. Skinner no doubt had a bad game, however the Devils were very opportunistic, I might add fortunate, with their opportunities, while the Oilers simply weren’t. The puck bounces around and either lands nicely on your stick to shoot and score, or it doesn’t, such is hockey. Devils must be living properly, funny how that works.
The oilers play 5v5 is absolutely pathetic.
The only players on the current lineup who are breaking even are Niemalainen in limited minutes and devin shore.
We are behind the montreal canadiens in points percentage and they are allegedly tanking hard for bedard by bringing in cap dumps and playing rookies with unpronouncable names big minutes.
This team needs to get its stuff together.
mcdavid and draisaitl have been treating defense as optional most of the year and we all know that this team goes where they decide.
What happened to the structured defense first game that woodcroft had them playing last season?
not a lot of truth in this rant.
have you looked at natural statrick on gf%?
have you looked at win% on the nhl standings?
just because u dont want to admit it doesnt mean it isnt true.
Have you?
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Yamamoto and Kane are 1st and 3rd in goal share – they are out.
McDavid and Drai both being below 50% in goal share is something else.
I don’t think the latter is sustainable, is it?
if a team is losing, everybody will be affected by goal share
winning/losing is exponential across all stats
the latter point no one seems to address
I agree with the comments on the D – I seem to recall immediately once Woodcroft took over, you had the D corpse standing up at the blueline, taking away the neutral zone. There’s way too much backing up and ceding the DZ to the opposition.
The most troubling stat of many posted above is the 5v5 scoring. There is no way a team with this (supposed) depth should be outplayed by the Seattle Kraken of the world (no offense, Seattle).
Kane injury aside, this team is really only different from the Conference Finals team with a few bit parts (Holloway, Janmark, Murray) and brand new goaltending.
I don’t think it’s the coaching, you can’t tell me so many veteran coaches keep having the same problems over and over again with this team.
Where’s the confidence? Where’s the swagger of a team who made it to the Conference Finals last year?
I’m getting close to the point of accepting that a team of McDavid/Draisaitl/Nurse doesn’t have what it takes.
That was the way the D played for Tippett and that was how he lost his job. I don’t believe for a second that is how they are being coached to play defense. That’s a real head scratcher.
it’s troubling.
Every team has injuries.
Soft schedule coming up in December.
Nuge came within an eyelash of tying the game in the 3rd … Devils go back and make it 4-2.
Thats hockey. On to Long Island.
We do this every year, it seems. We fall in love with our goal scoring prowess and forget to keep playing defence with the same enthusiasm. We always seem to need to relearn to take care of our own defensive zone before worrying about goals.
We have the talent to score goals.
When we start to work better in our zone we’ll start to win more.
We’ve shown it in short spurts. We won’t get to where we need to be until we improve our consistency.
Center get low(or first man back), strong side winger get lower to help, don’t turn over pucks and get em deep.
We have holes in our D corps but they’ll look a lot better if we commit to helping them consistently.
Edmonton MSM hacks now shitting on one of the bright spots of the year. A player grade of 1 is a little harsh in my opinion. But hey I don’t get paid to write shit.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/player-grades-edmonton-oilers-new-jersey-devils
I don’t agree with the 1 grade but he has a massive part of the loss but, 2 things:
1) re: “bright spots of the year” – yes, absolutely, but they grade the specific game, without regard to the season.
2) no offence to Bruce and Dave but they are not MSM, they do not have press passes with access. I personally have subbed in and written the post-game grades before and, well, I’m far from MSM or “fill-in MSM”……
Yeah I saw that 1 and rolled my eyes but that’s standard for anything David ‘Hack’ Staples* puts to paper.
* somehow also David ‘Local Expert In Everything’ Staples.
Regarding Holloway, he needs to play. Full Stop.
Either he gets a push or he gets sent down. The 3 games where he played over 10 minutes were the 2 worst losses and the blow-out win vs Nashville.
Against NJ last night he was a few seconds shy of 10 minutes. This 3 goal differential was also amongst the worst losses of the season. Clearly Woody does not consider him to be ready for actual NHL deployment.
He simply needs to play. Somewhere.
Yes. What is the hold up with sending him to the AHL to get a solid 7-10 games in? now is the time to do it, not February
I think we’re waiting for Tyler Benson to complete his conditioning stint
Tonight is Benson’s last game (unless the league approves an extension of the condition loan for 2 games).
I believe he just did a few minutes ago. I know DNB stated 2 more games (including tonight) but the CBA provides for 3 games/6 days (unless a league approved 2-game extension is granted). I presume getting that extension wouldn’t be tough but the Condors don’t play until Sat.
I think they’ll wait for any Condors/Oilers swap until the team is back home (unless forced with injury).
Saddling him with Derek Ryan just add salt to the wound….
One might thing but Holloway has spent about half of his time with Ryan and his results have been MUCH better with Ryan than without – possession, actual goals and expected goal – actually very good with Ryan and abysmal without him.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8482077
My goodness Jesper Bratt is going to cost the Devils a fortune next summer. Not bad for a 6th rounder.
Yes, he is….this will be news to some in here.
This team is not DOD bad, but it is comparable at the moment. The defence is DOD bad. I can only see 3, possibly 4 (Barrie) of 7 dmen who are NHL caliber. Of the 3, none are playing great. The gaps are gigantic and can’t remember the last time I saw a Oilers dmen stand and hold the blue line. The defence is not hard enough to beat, and the forwards are not doing enough to get back and help out. There is almost zero physical presence. Way too soft. Something needs to change quickly, or this team is looking at a Tippet record before January and it would take a remarkable turnaround to get to the playoffs.
It’s not the NHL caliber that is the problem. Only 3 or 4 is disingenuous; Nurse, Kulak, Ceci, Barrie, Bouchard are all NHL caliber D. The problem is only one of them is top pairing material, and the rest are all batting too high in the order, and the mix is wrong. One of Barrie or Bouchard (likely Barrie because $) would need to be replaced with a Gator, and Kulak needs to be on the 3rd pairing with a legitimate top 4 LD coming in.
Yes. Holland needs to find balance in the D. Too soft. Too little commitment to protecting the house.
I would argue that Bouchard is not NHL quality right now. He might be the worst dman on the team today. He’s better than what he’s doing right now. Confidence is a thing.