The Edmonton Oilers need the current home stand to be a success, and that means a win tonight against the Arizona Coyotes and a result on Friday night versus the Minnesota Wild. If this team can go 2-1-1 in the four games at home, it sets up December for 15+ points in 14 games. In terms of Edmonton’s odds of winning tonight? An indifferent, tired game (the Capitals game on Monday) is often followed by a market correction. We wait.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Who’s Edmonton Oilers’ next impact recall and what do they bring?
- DNB: Stuart Skinner has been the Oilers’ saviour — and that’s not a good thing
- Lowetide: Analyzing Edmonton Oilers defensive pairings deployment
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers look for rugged forward in a trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ young players providing a spark after a slow start
- Lowetide: What could Oilers forward Dylan Holloway accomplish in AHL?
- DNB: Oilers’ win over Rangers shows how valuable secondary scoring can be
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into 2nd decade of being misunderstood
- DNB: Oilers have a long way to go as defensive problems persist
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and early-season trades during road trips
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ lack of secondary scoring is a critical situation
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected (1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
- December actual result: 1-2-0, two points in three games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 14-12-0, 28 points in 26 games
These Oilers are on an 88-point pace and that’s going to get you a new coach, general manager and possibly trigger trade talk around Leon Draisaitl (he’ll have two seasons left on his contract next summer). I don’t think anyone wants to see that happen, many are speculating Ken Holland makes a deal (as is being rumoured) in December. My bet? No.
Erik Karlsson is having a terrific season. He would represent a massive upgrade on RHD and change the look of Edmonton’s top pairings. What would it cost? People are speculating Tyson Barrie, Oscar Klefbom’s deal, Jesse Puljujarvi, Philip Broberg, a pick, etc. I wonder if Evan Bouchard is the target from the San Jose side? Suspect that could be the ask. Sharks would have to retain. Karlsson is real good again. Real good.
Bruce Garrioch has the price on Jakob Chychrun at two first-round picks and a top prospect. So, for Edmonton it might be Tyson Barrie, Xavier Bourgault, and the 2023 and 2024 first-round picks. Darren Dreger talked about the Oilers and Chychrun on Lowetide and Jamieson recently, suggesting the Oilers don’t believe Chychrun is the solution for their top-four defense. Recent games by the player may have changed some minds. I think Bourgault would be a player who could get a deal done, but the Oilers may have plans for him.
JAY WOODCROFT
I mentioned on the Lowetide and Jamieson show yesterday that benching Evan Bouchard is all well and good, but the impact players aren’t tight defensively either. The first goal-against versus Washington featured a fatal pass by Leon Draisaitl. Single plays in a game can be chalked up to snap decisions gone awry, but Mr. Draisaitl has a five-on-five goal share of 43 percent without 97, and McDavid owns a 44 percent goal share without 29.
Woodcroft needs to reach the top of the roster with the message about making safe plays in the defensive zone. It’s important. Woodcroft is a new NHL coach, and he’s clearly smart, but the magic wand he used one year ago appears to be broken. This staff isn’t getting max performance out of the entire roster, not close.
There’s talk of fatigue and maybe that’s so, plus the injuries have come fast and furious. Overplaying the top talent is also back in vogue and we know that has an impact all on its own.
The one area of encouragement I noticed was Dylan Holloway playing on a feature line for a few minutes. That likely gets abandoned if Zach Hyman plays tonight, but I like the trend of Holloway getting minutes when the fun stuff happens. More please.
WHAT SHOULD HOLLAND DO?
I like the Erik Karlsson idea a ton. If you can trade Tyson Barrie in the deal (money has to be going), that could set up pairings of Nurse-Karlsson, Broberg-Ceci and Kulak-Bouchard. Or you could run Kulak-Karlsson, Nurse-Ceci and Broberg-Bouchard but the third pairing.
More than anything, I think Holland needs to find out about Philip Broberg in the next 40 games. So far in his NHL career, Broberg owns a 50.5 percent shot share, a PDO of around 94 percent, and a goal share of 11-21. He needs time to prove himself but the underlying numbers suggest some ability and maybe some poor luck. I think his play against Anthony Mantha the other night was splendid. If he can do that often, Broberg will have a career.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We’ll be live for four hours today (10-2) on TSN 1260. We’ll chat about Judge to the Yankees, World Cup final 8, Oilers versus Coyotes and possible trade targets (including Erik Karlsson). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Read Maurice’s interview. Not much new there except his little truth bomb that he sees the Jets analytics as weak, specifically around slot shots
Which for me tied to the Oilers and JP. Holland / Woody talk about scorers and ‘blue paint’. The team is going there more, but literally. My oldest as a toddler was doing his thing diaper less and seemed to have to go, so I said ‘go pee!’
Which he proceeded to, right where he stood: lesson learned
Watching other team’s highlights, especially the teams the best at down low play/cycling, they aren’t usually literally in the blue paint outside of the odd scramble. They are 5-10 feet back to collect rebounds and passes, finding open space, with room to collect and make a good shot of whatever type
The Oilers are very often not anywhere near the front of the net as they bang the puck around the back perimeter and to the point for a blocked shot, unscreened shot, or no one at the net, or are literally right in as close as they can get or standing in traffic
This is in particular messing JP up. He needs an extra tick to get the handle. Countless bobbles stick checks straight into pads or crest by most forwards. Connor and Leon are the only two that consistently give themselves enough space and guess who scores the most, which is of course partly them, but also playing smarter
What analytics do the Oilers value? They have terrible execution currently with defensive Royal Road protection and overall weak Royal Road attack
How are the coaches teaching and building the players that need it (most of them)? Don’t they see the positioning errors everywhere, at the scoring zone, or do they actually think you have to be standing on the goalie to score? What about tips to go with the screens they are doing more often?
Read Spector’s piece. Yes it’s his job to report. It didn’t sit right. Because he’s not a political reporter breaking a story of national import. There is very little actual new info – JP is having confidence issues and pondering his role in it all – and a lot of potential hurtfulness and embarrassment in his current home market
Yes BK should know it would come out. But he’s young and strikes me as a pure heart type, possibly still a bit young for his age as many are, and gave it to a Finn probably just bcs he asked thinking at some level it stays over the pond
I miss the days of more discretion. If you actually care about the team – and I don’t buy that media can’t care about the team while also being impartial to it’s realities – why do that? Even if the clicks are nice? Even if your job is on the line, wouldn’t save it anyway
It makes the situation worse for team, player, players, GM. As they try to get to the next level, where the gains are the hardest and most incremental. Gross to me
I realize I’m very late to the party. But I am 1000% against trading for Erik Karlsson. He might have the worst contract in hockey. He is on a heater right now, which is the worst time to trade for someone.
Karlsson was once a defenceman who did things nobody had done since Bobby Orr. But I don’t think he’s the same player anymore, since he had half of his ankle bone taken out after he gutted Ottawa through to G7 of the East Final.
Hard pass for me.
Good points
I had been supportive of it. Because Hollands MO of burning assets for bottom roster players has no chance of helping. And screws him later. It only could through miracle runs by those brought in, but why not let the guys that got you there have that chance? I think that is a shitty message to the group. I think they would get it if the player brought in was clearly better
My Karlsson thing was about bringing in a player better than you already have. But unless the cost was seriously mitigated, no, and teams seem very risk averse to help the Oilers, and with very good reasons- who wants to be the one that gave the piece that made them a McDavid juggernaut?
I missed the game. Nice 8-2 outcome and a 4 McPoint night.
How did Ghostbear look? Was he paired with Chychrun?
I still think he’s one of those players that’s undervalued based on reputation.
Looks like he was 57% FF, 50% GF on a night that the Yotes were crushed on the shot and goal metrics.
Yes, he was paired with Chychrun. He was quite the rover last night, but was the best Yote to my eye, although I did not pay close attention to him.
Kostin needs to see more TOI moving forward. He brings a lot of what the Oil need right now. The effort is there every night and the skill is beginning to show up in good places.
I don’t know what happened to the Nuge this year but I like it a lot. Same old Nuge but with a goal scoring cheat code.
Barely a peep from Chychrun, although he did get credited with 1 helper. Thought he might try putting on more of a show, but if that’s his game night after night, I’ll pass. If we’re willing to pay a kings ransom for D, I want a stud… someone who doesn’t constantly back up at the blue line and punishes on the boards. We need to be much harder to play against. IMO, that isn’t Chychrun.
GO OILERS!!!
Really? We have McDavid, don’t need someone to put on a show, we need someone to play good defence and support the offence.
His TEAM got shellacked 8-2, no one is going to look that great. However, despite the beating Chychrun the defence man had:
1 point (on 2 goals)
+1 (with 8 goals against)
3 SOG/1 hit/2 blocked shots
21:43 TOI (2nd on team)
I think that was a pretty damn good game on a pretty terrible team. We need GOOD defence not just rough defence.
Has little Jimmy Hamblin made this team? I was so hoping he would score when he was out there with a minute to go.
He got a minute forty more than Shore tonight. Don’t know how much of a tell that is. Kostin had the lowest TOI out of all the Fs. Pujo lowest TOI at EVs.
honestly, would toss JP to any team willing to give up production for potential, D or F
teams need depth not hope
Oilers 5 on 5 TOI leaders:
Kulak
Barrie
Bouchard
Broberg
Ceci
Nurse
The Forwards
lol good thing they were up 5-1 after the 2nd, not sure TOI in a beatdown means much
TOI always means something haha
It was really nice to see Klim Shady get rewarded for some solid play lately. I hope he and Ryan can keep it up and build some chemistry with whoever (hopefully) pushes Shore down to the AHL.
Well, there are still three forwards out of the lineup and on IR – with a FULLY healthy lineup, he, Malone and Benson are likely the odd-men out (although they MAY keep Shore around just cause).
not to be heretical but
i mean i’d love to see JP on the 4th line do anything of value
though, vis a vis, NHL being about asset management vs strength of lineup ceteris paribus
but still lol
not sure there has been a game since maybe early jan-feb I can say “oh jesse was on one tonight”
you need players that can “be on one tonight”
imo
EOD, i really dont think it matters what line JP is on
he can’t score on NHL goalies
Well he does have forty seven career goals. I think JP gets confused and forgetful–maybe caught up in himself a bit–about what kind of play brings him success. Today he played direct and straightforward. Much more so than he has so far this season. He was where his linemates would expect to see him and thinking net, like they are.
That said, he has to start crashing the crease and taking the puck to the net consistently… playing the direct, fast, hard game. The physical element he’s added this year will serve him well if he keeps it up.
Confidence is really a thing with this young fella. If he can ever put it together, he’ll be a force. I hope he figures it out soon though.
trust me, I have been a huge fan of JP since drafting
when he shines he shines,
he is an effective player in everything to do besides scoring goals
he’s not the first nor the last player to be casted as such
it’s becoming another Lander situation
“looks good, just if he puts the pieces together he’ll be great”
this team needs production
to 47 goals point, I get
that g/pg is slowing down hard; sure positive regression short term; but negative regression mid/long term in early 20s isn’t exactly indictive of future value
CFrel%, xGF% etc wrt JP is only brought up when we are losing, and it is almost never done when we win
that makes me believe the narrative isn’t actually about winning but emotion
JP is the penny stock you bought at 25c in mania, believing the hype; it produces revenue and isn’t diluting. but it’s sitting at 1c now. sure whoever buys it may get a payoff.
Oil need that cap space, and honestly, the roster space to give people who are providing a spot
Dec 16th, 2021
2 G 1 A against CBJ (yawn) (perlini had 1-1 that game)
since then 5 goals in (too lazy amount to count) games
not to be jim cramer, I doubt we would be selling the bottom with JP
dwindling asset
Well that game sure fixed the goal differential. We all know it’s was ARI basically phoning it in on their last game of a ridiculous 14 game road trip, but a win is a win.
Gordie Howe Baby!
How long has that been?
fully in love with kostin after this game
Not sure Kass needed to do that – at this point in the game, its not firing up his team and he’s risking himself…..
That was the “I want a shower before there’s no hot water” fight
just boxscore and that hit
Ugh, Kailer could have used that – bobbled it early.
Five hole might have went
Gonna be a long year for
AZ
CBJ
CHI
ANA
Let the Bedard Derby Begin ……
Ok now sit the big boys down for the rest of the night
cool. Why not. More McD goals are always good.
now leading the league with 24 goals. Wow.
No points for JP.
The fancies sure sparkle though.
Repeat 8 goals and ZERO points for JP
Unreal fancies though, best in the league last year, seriously one of the best, most underrated players in the league with the fancies!
There’s bullshit both ways but ummm. Where’s the points bud? I need some
points if you want me to defend you against that putz Spector.
Was that fluffy?
not sure this team needed a farm team beatdown
but entertainment nonetheless
flames needed a goal with under 5 minutes to go to beat this team 3-2 the other night…
alright yeah it’s an nhl team
still have 7 wins on the season and hunting for bedard
glad the team performed to its capability
hyman back really seemed to shift stuff up front as it should be
secondly,
my point was towards my belief this teams issue is with effort and ego
8 goal victory, which I love because hockey is about entertainment, is also maybe not what this team needed against one like the yotes
Im a believer in rock bottom recoveries, than opportunistic falsehoods
but hey at least they didn’t lose 8-2
That’s a much stronger point in this iteration. I’m not sure I agree this is the correct narrative but I can see the pov
never bragged about my articulation. but appreciated
one could argue that a confidence boost is exactly what this team has needed…
too bad Jesse couldn’t pop one. he’s really in a bad spot mentally (judging from the latest Finnish article about him)
It’s almost like all those forward injuries might be impacting the team more than Nurse sucking at defense and Woodcroft being a crappy coach?
lol fully agree
Unable to watch as I am teaching in Singapore just now. Just checking score on breaks. Are Oilers this good for once or Arizona this bad? So nice to have a stress free game for once for the team. Hope it carries over to Minnesota game!
The Zone are at the end of the longest road trip outside of Napoleon’s attack on Russia. The Oiler second goal, Ryan’s really took a lot of wind out of the Yotes sails. And the Oil are playing like they’re motivated by erasing the debacle of last game from memory.
Great job by Bouch not to take a penalty but I’m shocked one wasn’t called….
Bouchard worked hard to get back in position and make a well-timed stick lift. That was a nice play to watch
I know this is ARI and they are playing their 14 straight road game but, in their 13th straight road game, the flames needed a goal in the last 5 minutes to escape with a 3-2 win…
Man, I’m having troubles enjoying this game. This Arizona team is triggering my PTSD from the DOD.
Nice shot of Skinner standing high in the crease on Crouse. Good to see.
Ummm, the Yotes have 10 shots and the Oilers have 7 goals…..
they both saw that goal in their heads before Drai even made that sweet pass.
And that’s a wrap!
It’s not a game without a McD goal!
Zero chance Drai was going to shoot that.
….oppp, McDavid
Drai and McDavid are just toying with them now
Drai seemed to be on that shift.
Kostin with a well-deserved goal, whips one top corner.
Two goal scorer goals by the K-men
Klim Shady!!
That line has been a boss tonight
KOSTIN!!!!
NICE!!!
Going to need a save by Skinner to get that save percentage over .900….
More bangs by Klim – his recent play reminds of a more effective recent year’s Kass
complete with backcheck
I was going to say “with more of a 2-way game and commitment on the boards” but, from watching him in the AHL…… I didn’t want to get ahead of things.
Can Woody keep McDavid under 5:30 this period and under 20 minutes?
I better not see him on the PK.
Summarizing!
Jake Chiasson scored the game-winner late in the third to give the Kings of Wheat a 4-3 win. He also added an assist and was named 1st star.
After Two
5-1 Edmonton (3-1 in the second)
30-10 Edmonton shots (16-4 in the second)
34-18 Corsi five-on-five (22-8 in the second)
==
Such a fun game, Nuge with a big night, kids like Broberg and Holloway getting points and Kailer Yamamoto finding the range. Kulak having a fine game.
Yotes look as tired tonight as the Oil did last game. Monster road trip I know.
I think if the Oilers can put in a solid first 5 mins of this 3rd period the Coyotes will hit the showers and pre-board the flight home
Holy Shit!
Holloway and Yamos value has never been higher!
Quck trade then for Chychrun! Dammit Holland stop being such a bum and do it.
Dylan Holloway through 2 periods at 5 on 5:
TOI: 9:16
Corsi: 11-1
Shots: 5-1
Expected goals: 98.5%
Broberg with 10:16 of ice at 5 on 5
Nice
Don’t let LT see those retro Sharks unis! lol
Jesse Puljujarvi thinks Nick Schmaltz needs to work on his finishing
Nice to see Holloway rewarded for a great shift (and game) with an assist on the Kulak goal..
Nice to see a lot of players chipping in.
AZ is baaaad. But Edm did what they had to do.!!
a team effort should help the boys!
When was the last time Hyman scored? Goodness he’s had a lot of great chances – he does score in bunches, that will come in due time.
Kulak pours it on!!
5-1
That should be Holloway with the primary-this kid has no reservations about taking that puck to the net
Yam fry with the primary, Holloway with the 2nd assist and some nice work setting the whole thing up
Holloway’s work made that happen.
BOOM!!! Great work in the zone leads to a great chance by Kulak and he doesn’t miss!!!
Kulak absolutely rips one into the top left corner after some fine work by Holloway et al
(top right for Kulak)