The Edmonton Oilers chose Reid Schaefer No. 32 overall in the 2022 draft. He went in the range of expectation (I had him at exactly No. 32 overall). That’s good news for Oilers fans, who spent many years watching the teams draft big power forwards who were shy offensively. Schaefer isn’t a lock, but he’s a fine bet. What’s this season look like? Well, trading the first-round pick is going to be painful for the organization.
Connor McDavid will post scoring numbers we haven't seen this century and decades before that, while the Oilers could miss the playoffs. Seriously. December saw progress, but not enough wins. Here's the month in review for a team in danger. https://t.co/NQLe2SbpvT
RC Connor Bedard, Regina Pats (WHL). His NHLE is 57 points, so he’s the ‘other Connor’ because McDavid’s draft year NHLE (68) remains out of sight. I don’t see any way he disappoints. Bedard is a brilliant young player, teams are hobbling their goalies in an effort to find last place.
LC Adam Fantilli, Michigan (Big-10). His NHLE (44) gets him the edge on my list, not sure where he’ll land elsewhere. He’s 6.03, 192 and a complete player. The fact his offense projects to be SO good may mean a controversy on draft day for the No. 1 spot. I don’t think so, but this is a substantial talent.
LC Leo Carlsson, Orebro (SHL). Mature center with terrific skills and good size (6.03, 195 he’s a December 2004). He has speed and skill but also possesses size and strength. That’s going to get him drafted early. NHLE: 27.
LW Zachary Benson, Winnipeg Ice (WHL). May 2005, making him one of the youngest at the top of this year’s draft. He’s smaller (5.10, 160) but possesses great hands and is highly creative. Plays a rugged game. That combination is a concern, you may recall Gilbert Brule. NHLE: 39.
RW Colby Barlow, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Bigger winger (6.01, 195) who has 22 goals in 30 OHL games. Speed, great shot, throwback type. I guarantee the Oilers love him, he’ll be long gone when they pick. NHLE: 38.
LC Riley Heidt, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Strong skater, a little undersized, creative and highly productive. He’s not top-10 everywhere, but his NHLE is 36 so he’ll make my top-10.
RW Matvey Michkov, St. Petersburg (KHL). Undersized skill winger who is the best shooter in the draft. His NHLE (25) puts him here but he’s signed through 2026, so is likely to fall. If a team like Washington, with a good history of sucess with Russians, has a chance I bet they take him.
RW Eduard Sale, Brno (Czechia). He’s a difficult player to project because his draft season is being spent in the top pro league, but his eye-popping numbers in previous season (junior) give his resume a Miro Satan feel.
RC Will Smith, US Natl Development Team (USHL). He’s 6.0, 172 and a March 2005, so more room to grow. Smith has terrific skills, great passer and a nice range of skills. More passer than shooter. NHLE: 28.
LC Oliver Moore, US Natl Development Team (USHL). He’s a burner, one of the fastest players in the draft. He’s skilled, fine passer.
RD Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Skelleftea AIK (SHL). He possesses great speed and has skill, plus he’s playing in the SHL age 17. You’ll hear 5.09, 170 but he’s worth a high pick. Scouting reports rave about his overall skating. I have him this high because I think he’ll be taken higher than current rankings.
RC Braydon Yager, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Great skater set the Hlinka on fire, he’s a dangerous pivot who can score and pass equally well. He’s 6.0, 166 and a January 2005. NHLE: 26.
RW Ethan Gauthier, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). He’s having a solid draft year and his NHLE (27) is better than several players ranked higher. Scouting reports fade him as a skill guy, he’ll probably move up and down on my list over the next six months.
RW Matthew Wood, UConn (H-East). Big winger with skill, he’s a February 2005 so his offense in college (7-9-16 in 21 games) is extra impressive.
LD Mikhail Gulyayev, Omsk (KHL). He’s undersized but has dynamic puck moving ability and Wheeler likes him at both ends of the ice.
RC Calum Ritchie, Oshawa Generals (OHL). He has size (6.02, 187) and is an excellent and creative passer. Fine skater, he has a fine range of skills.
RD Lukas Dragicevic, Tri-Cities Americans (WHL). A big RHD who has skill and above average speed, he might go top-10 overall.
RW Ryan Leonard, US Natl Development Team (USHL). At 5.11, 180, he’s a throwback winger with a great shot and could grow into an agitator with high skill. Good skater, competes on everything. NHLE: 13.
LW Andrew Cristall, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). I don’t know where to place him. NHLE is 44 but he has skating issues and is 5.10. He’ll probably be available at No. 50 but I’d take him first round.
LW Quentin Musty, Subdury Wolves (OHL). Another PF with great numbers, more playmaker than shooter. He does have plus speed.
LC Dalibor Dvorsky, AIK (Allsvenskan). He plays in an excellent league and has at times struggled. Impressive playmaker, not certain he’ll play center when he comes to North America. NHLE: 11.
RC Nate Danielson, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). He can skate, has good size and real skill. His NHLE is 30, and he has size (6.01, 185). I bet the Oilers like him plenty.
RW Gabriel Perreault, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Smart offensive player who is undersized. Yanic Perreault’s son.
RW Otto Stenberg, Frolunda (Swe Jrs). Owns a complete skill set, his offensive game isn’t at the same level as the top players in the draft.
RW Koehn Ziemmer, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Power forward with great numbers, I have him lower than where he’d be projected because no one has mentioned plus speed. We’ll get more as we go.
LD Theo Lindstein, Brynas (SHL). Dynamic puck mover in junior and a depth defender in the SHL. Remind you of anyone?
RW Kasper Halttunen, Helsinki (Liiga). He’s 6.03, 207 and a June 2005. He has skill, size and projects as a power forward. Craig Button suggests he’s a little raw, that’s fair.
LD Caden Price, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). He has reasonable size (6.01, 180) and rates as a two-way defenseman. There isn’t a dominant group of defensemen this year, that usually means the blue gets drafted out of listed order. Price could go higher.
RD David Reinbacher, Kloten (Swiss). He’s 6.02, listed as a two-way defenseman but I think teams will look at him as more defense than offense. He probably doesn’t go in the first round, but a team who projects him as a future top pairing blue might reach.
RW Mathieu Cataford, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). He is a fine offensive prospect, the verbal around him suggests a future a little shy of the No. 1 line. Not certain math agrees (NHLE: 32) but we’ll hedge our bets for now.
RD Cam Allen, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). He’s a RH defenseman who can move the puck well, and at 5.11, 190 he’s only slightly undersized. Allen is not an offensive dynamo, but if he can play in the top four and eat up minutes at evens plus PK, he’ll be worth the bet.
RD Hunter Brzustewicz, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). He’s 6.0, 188 and makes an excellent first pass. His offense this season (2-25-27 in 31 games) is beyond his ability according to some reports, but he’s a modern player-type with enough size to appease the old timey scouts.
OILERS MOCK!
No. 16 overall: RC Calum Ritchie, Oshawa Generals (OHL). He has the complete range of skills, a great work ethic and may be undervalued because the offense this year hasn’t spiked compared to a year ago.. Ritchie may go before Edmonton picks, it’s also possible Ken Holland trades down or out. If chosen by Edmonton here, he would be the first player chosen in round one by Edmonton likely to be NHL-ready at some point after the Leon Draisaitl contract runs out. The Oilers need to improve depth at center, this would be a fine first step.
No. 80 overall: LW Noel Nordh, Brynas (SHL). A big winger (6.02, 195) with good hands. Strong, good skater, might go higher but he’s the player-type Tyler Wright is acquiring in his Oilers drafts.
No. 144 overall: G Thomas Milic, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). He is currently delivering a third consecutive season with a SP over .910, and is 6.0, 175. Draft the man!
No. 176 overall: LD Francois-James Buteau, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL). Huge defenseman who can punish, he also has a plus shot and can defend.
No. 208 overall: RC Jake Sloan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Overager is having a fine season.
Seeing that talk has come up about Leon re-signing with the Oilers or not, how soon can negotiations start and how soon can he renew with the team if he and the team agree?
I believe he can‘t be extended until there is only one season left on his contract so basically after about July 1, 2024 (or whatever date free agency starts that year.)
Here’s a trade that would never happen . Trade Draisaitl. for Ramus Dahlin.
Would that make the Oilers a better team?
flea
January 2, 2023 10:39 pm
Seeing the Winter Classic headline about Jake Debrusk being trade bait. Is he actually? Or are they just saying this because he was last year, or sometime before?
It seems like a sensationalist headline but maybe I’ve missed something on Debrusk still wanting out of Beantown. He’d be a good add for this team.
Overall SV% depends on how many minutes toi used as a cutoff, but at least top 10 for those who’ve played over 1000 minutes.
Stalock’s having a good rebound season as a backup in Chicago.
danny
January 2, 2023 7:39 pm
Bedard is incredible. He shoots exactly like Markus Naslund did. Matthews does it as well but not as exaggerated as those guys.
Bedard has the shot of Matthews and the hands of McDavid. The only question I have about him is will the dominance translate as well as McDavid did considering the difference in speed. I doubt it will, but he’s clearly a generational talent.
Actually he’s on pace for about 150 points playing on a crappy Regina Pats team.
McDavid scored 120 points in his last season playing on a stacked Erie Otters team that featured Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome for a total of 10 players who are currently playing in the NHL.
Some chatter that Bedard may get traded to a Memorial Cup contender which might increase his output further.
You usually do, true or not. Just another bit of hyperbole on your behalf skewed heavily to the narrative you are promoting.
And also, it actually would be uncommon for a 5’10” 17 and half year old male to grow more than another inch. It could happen, but statistically, it is highly unlikely, which would make it uncommon.
Of course his speed should improve. He seems like a dedicated generational talent. I fully expect it. But the original point was he doesn’t have the speed that 97 has, and won’t get there.
It shouldn’t be expected that CB is that. He may turn out that good. Every exceptional player has exceptional skating almost without exception
And also size. The Coal Harbour guys are 6’ 200 lbs. CMD Underpants and Ovi are not small or bigger, etc etc
Bedard in the NHL until proven I would project as more like Caufield, also being a shooter first, and smaller than average. He may blow the doors off, or be a really good top line winger, which is fine
Bedard is a way better prospect than Cole Caufield. Bedard is bigger than both Patrick Kane and Johnny hockey (and Caufield by 3 inches and 10 lbs). Jack Hughes is only and inch taller and 10 lbs lighter and he is well over a point a game, in seasons 3 and 4 post being selected number 1. If healthy, by age 20-21, Bedard is very likely to be a top 10 scorer in the NHL.
This. As I said below, I see a lot of Jack Hughes in CB and project he’ll take a few years to dominate in the NHL. Size matters in this league.
It’s cute to read articles suggesting any other player would be #1 pick.
Woah, woah, woah
HH will certainly counter with some worthless observation on how Bedard will “certainly get nearly as fast as McDavid, as he goes through the “growth spurt” I’m predicting (in his previous post) blah, blah, blah”.
Stop feeding the troll.
Bag of Pucks
January 2, 2023 7:37 pm
Unbelievably sad and shocking situation in tonight’s MNF game. Emergency CPR administered to Bills safety Damar Hamlin. His life appears in genuine jeopardy and the game is now temporarily suspended. Really puts things in perspective. So sad.
Well said. Professional athletes’ bodies are machines. It is scarey when things like this happen. I remember when Jiri Fischer and Jay Bouwmeester fainted during NHL play. When this happens to amateurs like us out-of-shape weekend warriors the outcome probably isn’t good.
Dr. Peter McCullough pointed out in a recent paper that since the shots were deployed, 1598 athletes have suffered cardiac arrest, with 1101 of them dying. In order to find 1101 similar athlete deaths he has to examine a 38-year period.
Munny 2.0
January 2, 2023 7:29 pm
Finally takes the puck to the net and he is rewarded. Beautiful goal from Bedard.
Harpers Hair
January 2, 2023 7:28 pm
WOW!!!!!!!
Munny 2.0
January 2, 2023 7:26 pm
I think that might be the first time Zellwegger has come off.
Wow what a save.
LMHF#1
January 2, 2023 7:25 pm
Wouldn’t mind taking a flyer and drafting this Slovak goalie late. He’s had some outstanding games against top competition.
Munny 2.0
January 2, 2023 7:24 pm
He finally comes off the ice. Monster shift fr Bedard
danny
January 2, 2023 7:19 pm
Clarke makes me nervous with his decisions. Weary of him 3 on 3 in ot.
He hasn’t had a very good tournament to my eye and he’s starting to look like he’ll fit in with the growing list of meandering prospects from the once generational depth or start prospects in the Kings’ org.
LMHF#1
January 2, 2023 7:16 pm
That’s the clearest delay of game penalty I’ve ever seen and the stripes stand there like clowns.
Bedard was probably shocked someone actually made a pass
Munny 2.0
January 2, 2023 6:59 pm
Canada could’ve found a goal on that flurry
MrEd
January 2, 2023 6:15 pm
60 days until trade deadline.
What’s KH shopping for? Who/what’s expendable?
LT has has the constraints surrounded I think. Does KH give up this years 1st in a deep draft? Does he give up this years 1st knowing that Draisaitl’s contract is up in a couple of years and the organizational depth at Centre is weak?
I think his answer should (will) be “No”.
I think KH could use someone from a glut on the LW instead:
Kane
Hyman
Kostin
Holloway
Foegele
Janmark
Schaefer
Petrov
-and then make a choice between Barrie and Bouchard at RD.
Target a heavy shutdown RD and a 3C according to cap space cleared.
Kane McDavid Draisaitl
Hyman RNH Puljujarvi
Kostin (N.Sturm) Holloway
Janmark McLeod Ryan
Shore
Are we just assuming Drai doesn’t resign? I know he will be due a raise but the cap is going up too and I’d like to think he’s enjoying his time in Edmonton.
His stats are pumped (no fault of his) by the Gord-aweful uncompetitiveness of Germany and Austria this year. Slovakia is another level.
I predict he’ll take a Jack Hughes path to NHL glory – couple of seasons of flashes and injuries, then major impact.
I’ll predict more of a Patrick Kane level out of the gate.
AMD
January 2, 2023 4:28 pm
With your rankings I’d take at #16 Dalibor Dvorsky
winchester
January 2, 2023 3:34 pm
Many NHL teams will face the Oilers and have confidence to just play “their” game. Sutter wont change. Bruins, Stars, Avalanche etc
But there is a game plan that seems to be an Oiler killer. Minnesota, LA, Jets, they turtle up in the defensive zone. Keep Oilers to the outside where Oilers are happy to stay for the most part. Block every lane, sticks everywhere, aggressively contest slot, clear every rebound. You might say all teams do this but some do it better and with more purpose. Oilers struggle with fancy shots, net front presence, and looking for back door plays.
Its not the trap though, its the opposite. Two man high pressure forecheck. Pressure the turnover.
Play a different game and the Oilers will beat you. Play this game and even an injury riddled team can prevail.
They haven’t developed a proper top end cycle. They can these days keep the puck in the O zone, but if they don’t have the passes they typically look for they bang it around the perimeter and to the point until they lose it, or try really low percentage stuff like trying to stuff it in
This is why I don’t like team comments like ‘find a way to win’ and ‘in the blue paint’. There is a way to do what that means, but those wods in themselves don’t necessarily mean more than what the Oilers do
And that is getting shut down offensively 5v5, and also PP, if teams don’t give them anything easy or just clog the N zone and D zone up. They also get stuffed pretty easy in the D zone still
The Oilers feel they can score, but really they can run up goals on teams that give them the space, and still get choked out otherwise
The other thing I don’t like to read here is ‘hot goalie’. I haven’t seen any goalie go full Tretiak or Fuhr on them this season. What I have seen is a lot of forcing and low percentage plays. A lack of patience and strategy. 3rd stringers looking like NHL goalies, really because the shots are not really that dangerous, counted as such or not
This is on Woody. A step in game maturity and a strategy to go to when that happens
I don’t buy that this is normal for top teams. ‘Hot goalies’ don’t stop a season’s top teams. Or that injuries mean you can’t play as a team at a high level, unless it’s excessive injuries
You don’t get to these numbers and take excuses. Losses: Bruins 4, Canes 6, Laughs 8, Dallas 9, Oilers 16
If the Oilers want to be a top team, as almost everyone agrees they “should’ be, that is the mind set they need to adopt – players, coaches, GM, POHO, Owner. No excuses outside of extraordinary, and have the game plan to win every style of game, choked off, hot goalie, rough, whatever, pond hockey fun or a brutal slog. Every game
Run up goals when it’s there, or battle to victory, with strategy
Sure is easy to see the hole in the line-up, eh? That’s too much to ask of Foegele, but better to ask it of him than Janmark. Each center has a physical winger to play with, and there’s hands on every line… this setup should still win games.
Holloway has an opportunity here, while Kane is out, if he can force his way up the line-up. Seize the moment like Kostin has. The second half split is where we should see the lad make hay. Over the past couple of weeks, he looks like he’s found his identity on the ice and has developed a toolkit of base plays he knows he can safely go-to. The game looks like it is starting to slow for him… ie less thinking and more doing. I’m hoping we will see him take a full step forward this month.
And The Klimmer Twin, well what can you say? The only thing now is to see what kind of sustain he has. How consistently he can make that kind of impact on a game.
That line-up will look even better with Kane in it, but we also have to picture it probably missing one Jesse Puljujarvi. That’s a big hole to my eye and worries me more than the D (depending on Broberg’s health). And it can’t be completely filled by simply getting a quality 4C. Need a quality 3rd liner, at least.
JP has been firing shots right off his stick for a couple of games now, creating some dangerous chances. He’s been thinking net much more often and that has made him more predictable to his linemates too. Still racking up the hits every game, which is great to see–you have to love the try in this kid. He looks so useful to me, more so in the long term than Yams does, I will be sad to see him go.
I like your comments on Holloway. To my eye he seems such an obvious choice for a boost. Hes fast, hits, forechecks, gets in the tough areas. As much as Im enjoying Klim on the team, I see Holloway passing him and others to seize a position beside Draisaitl for the zone entry speed, and turnover machine.
I see Yamamoto as a great 3rd line wing but results haven’t been there consistently above that. He is a very good penalty killer as well for value added.
Well, by the line-up it is 1/2RW. Or at least that’s what I’m trying to demonstrate. Now Hyman, Nuge and Foggy do allow Holland some flexibility on replacing JP, an acquisition can be either wing or a C.
It is probably too much to hope for a top 6 winger this season to replace Pujo’s minutes, but adding a 4th liner isn’t enough to compensate for the loss, IMO.
He might think adding Kostin is enough, I dunno. I’m sure he had the JP situation on his mind when he made the trade for Klim. But I think they need another quality forward.
winchester
January 2, 2023 3:23 pm
Happy New Year Lowtidians!
So a few thoughts:
Did anyone see who went over the boards in the last 5 seconds of the Seattle game? A big defencemen took a run at Ryan or Yamamoto (I think) and hit them over the boards and into the Seattle bench. All you could see in the frame was the players skates going over. Please someone corroborate.
Then we see Dillon taking multiple runs at Yamamoto trying to obliterate him.
We were lucky in Calgary not to lose Connor for a few games, though I do agree with Woodcroft and I did not see intention behind the knee to knee hit, only a McDavid who is in front of you one second and beside you in an instant. But we lost Leon from another dirty play. The 2 points were not guaranteed, it could have been a loss. Then exasperated by losing again without Leon in the line up.
The playoffs last year were significantly affected when LA went after Oilers skilled players on purpose, after the whistle, at every opportunity. The goal was to put them off their games.
This managing of the intimidation, deterring cheap shots, its a real thing.
This team was playing similar last year. Then Kane showed up. His presence on the ice, talking, chirping, challenging, it makes a difference. No he cannot prevent injuries, but he can make a difference. I doubt those runs that Dillon was taking would have occurred.
One tough player is not going to win games. We all know it has to be the right player, and that is a rare player. But in building balance, there has to be recognition that this player is important and should be included somewhere on the roster as they make everybody a little bit bigger and bolder and collectively, it does help win games.
Bedard is a brilliant young player, teams are hobbling their goalies in an effort to find last place.
GMs have no shame in trying to tank.
One premise I’ve always assumed is that coaches always try to win, no matter what they’re given or who’s on the draft list.
The other assumption I’ve always had is that coaches play their best players (or who they feel are their best players) the most.
What does everyone think about these two assumptions?
Given those two assumptions, I did find it curious that Jake McCabe is losing a minute at 5v5 (edit: per game) and a minute and change overall to a 35-year-old, also left shot, Jack Johnson.
Chicago has quite the blender going on d pairings.
McCabe did start the season playing with Seth, then he actually played with Jake, now he’s playing with Caleb.
Still, even if a coach is playing one player up the lineup to even out pairings, I’d still expect better players to play more.
Usually that’s the case at least. If you’re going to make your #5 dman play top pairing to balance out the pairings, you’re probably not going to have him play 18 minutes per night at 5v5.
Caleb’s minutes are pretty much the same as last year. McCabe is actually playing 40 seconds less at 5v5 than he did last year.
Sorry, I meant at a per game rate. Jack Johnson is playing a minute per game more than McCabe at 5v5. Overall, Jack Johnson is playing a 1 minute and 13 seconds more per game.
Everyone knows the “McCabe rumour” isn’t an actual rumour, right?
A caller to Bob’s show put his name forward as a possible target. Bob agreed it was a possiblity and liked the player so the next day threw the name at Elliotte, who also thought McCabe was likely one of the many guys Holland was kicking tires on. (Elliotte is pretty sure Holland has had talks about every defender on the non-contenders)
Elliotte then mentioned the name on HNIC and we are here. Pretty thin stuff though.
“He had a good skate on the game day and then yesterday he and I skated together and he had a good practice today. I haven’t followed up with him or the medical department but it was a good sign today”
Healthier than we’ve been in a long while, and good to see.
McSorley33
January 2, 2023 11:57 am
Yes, it’s early.
How about the top 15 picks in the 2019 draft.
Who is not tracking well?
*Very* cursory look says:
Alex Turcotte
Vasili Podkolzin
Victor Soderstrom
Philip Broberg
All the rest appear to be bangers….
Cam York appears to be on the top pair for Philly and has 6 points in 10 games this year.
12-Boldy has 12 goals already
13- Knight in Florida is close to stealing the starters job
14-York top pair limited games so far – decent start
15- Caufield – has 21 goals already
Young players having an impact early.
I think either Caufield or Boldy would be close to 50 goal scorers – now-taking passes from Leon Draisaitl.
How is Broberg not tracking well. He is in the NHL in his draft+4. The only D significantly ahead of him in games played are Seider, Bjornfot, and Byram. Bjornfot didn’t stay in Sweden post draft.
Broberg is right in the same area of 40 games +/-10 as York, Jones, Harley, Kolyachonek, Heinola, and would be ahead if not for injuries this year and last.
Broberg is a June birthday. So on the younger end of his draft class. He aced his first year in the AHL, and had two callups, and was significantly better in the 2nd one. He would be a regular in the NHL this year if not for injury.
Schmidt played right side D in Vegas and plays right side D in Winnipeg. Heinola only spent one year in Europe before coming over.
Heiskanen is played mostly right side D last year. Dallas thought so highly of Harley that they decided to push Harley back to the AHL by moving Heiskanen back to the left side and add Lundqvist (a year older right shot D from the Rangers), and Colin Miller (pretty meh player). Looks pretty much like a failed audition to me, when two smaller more offensive oriented D push you back to the AHL.
Yes…Broberg is now ensconced as #3 LD so what happens if Holland adds another LD as most are expecting?
Does Kułak get punted to 7D or is it Broberg?
The Winnipeg D situation is always murky but the one defining characteristic is that they slow play their prospects. Morrissey spent a season in the AHL.
Dallas always wanted Heiskanen to play on his natural side which is why they traded for Lundqvist.
This has nothing to do with Harley who is a left shot D playing behind the 3 I stated. BTW Harley is even younger with an Aug. 19 birthday.
This has been going on for some time and is silly. Broberg’s progress, injuries aside, has been anywhere from textbook to ahead of the curve. People don’t like him because the Oilers didn’t choose a USA forward. Broberg didn’t draft himself, and the draft was done in summer 2019. Time to move on.
I think Broberg’s injury impacted this season. When Woodcroft took over last season, Broberg averaged 10:41 at five-on-five and had a 50 percent goal share.
Klefbom did average 18:48 per night and owned a 40 percent goal share.
Yes, this is true but in draft plus 3, the numbers favour Broberg substantially over Klef (in the AHL), in particular on the offensive side.
Yes, Klefbom played up the lineup in his draft plus 4 (first full NHL season) but that wasn’t because he was ready, it was because he was forced. He was a -20 at 5 on 5 while playing with the best players on the team (TOI most common with Shultz, Eberle, Nuge, Percell, Yakupov, Hall).
There is no reason to think that today’s Broberg would’t be given the exact same reps as Klef on that team, right?
We don’t know where things will do with Broberg over the next few years but he’s tracking right on pace and the only reason he hasn’t played nightly is injury, right?
Rob Brown pointed out that Kostinn had lost his skate blade on that hit at the end of the game and he felt that was the only reason Klim left the ice so awkwardly.
It is stronger option with slow boots AND and connections
OriginalPouzar
January 2, 2023 11:07 am
Trading the 1st rounder this year is certainly a possibility but I’m not positive its a lock.
I am not saying not to diligence all possible upgrades for this season or make moves to upgrade – I just look at the cap situation and, unless something changes, its next year that the team will have the real ability to be substantial players in-season. Simply being out of LTIR hell (presumably), will allow daily accrual of cap space and the pro-rating of contracts acquired in season – those things will be huge.
The 2023 first-round selection is the most valuable trade asset in Holland’s bag. He hasn’t dealt a first yet, though. My guess is he keeps it, doesn’t seem to be enough to entice him among the available deadline pieces. That could change, of course.
Its definitely a valuable piece and it could very well be used (or not used).
At the same time, the player drafted with the pick will also be a valuable piece at next year’s deadline, right?
The cap situation and LTIR make it very hard and very expensive to materially improve in-season this year. It should be different next season and this year’s first round pick will remain a valuable trade asset at next year’s deadline as well, right?
Teams tend to value the pick more highly, suspect it’s because they can put their stamp on a team and the team gets credit for making the pick in the local media. I think Holland must calculate the value of drafting a quality player this year when it’s likely said player won’t help the NHL team win games until at least 2025 fall.
The League’s cap issues stemming from pandemic policies have limited the team’s ability to reorganize the roster. That’s a fact of reality and it cares not what the aspirations of the org are.
Maybe Holland can find a path through, but he will need some cookies to crumble the right way, and when there are circumstances out of one’s control, things don’t always go as well as hoped.
The important thing is to not eff up the next two years just to make this a go-year.
Within reason, I tend to agree. Even if they resign, it will be very difficult to build a balanced roster around two mammoth contracts. Not impossible, but nothing about recent management trends in Edmonton gives much hope.
It is “go time” but, at the same time, management has to be smart about it. The cap and LTIR circumstances are real and they create major impediments to improve materially. There are only so many bullets. Spending the 1st rounder this year (which may happen and may be a good move) means that asset won’t be available when here is more ability to actually improve next deadline, right?
OriginalPouzar
January 2, 2023 11:03 am
Damn, I hope the Oilers don’t draft around 16th – that’s essentially making the playoffs as a wild card team and losing in the 1st round. Its definitely not out of the realm of possibility and, well, probably reasonably likely given how the season has gone, but I hope not.
Presuming relative health, I don’t see the top end of this team losing in the first round – we saw what supernova Connor/Leon can do over a 2-4 game playoff stretch.
Lots of forwards in the top ten this year. I wouldn’t mind the Oilers taking a D man this year with their first pick. The Oiler scouts are doing a fine job these days but once Broberg becomes an NHL regular they don’t have any prospects who project to be a top pair guy.
McSorley33
January 2, 2023 10:29 am
Very few in here more critical of this org and it’s management than me…
However, I do feel this team’s drafting has been really good, in general.
As LT always points out, no guarantees on anything but they are not wondering off the path very far.
The one time they wandered, they were solely, and completely, focused on one player. And telegraphed that pick ahead of time.
meanashell11
January 2, 2023 9:57 am
Other than the twitter post, is there any news about Kostin?
We know now that he’s good to go (and his media avail today was fantastic) but, to the IG post, it was an “insta-story” so it lasts for 24 hours and then disappears. The screen shot of it is all over the internet (including tweeted by the Oilers’ official Account yesterday).
ArmchairGM
January 2, 2023 9:54 am
I’ve had my eye on Matthew Wood for a while. He may be available when the Oilers draft (many scouts have him in the 21-28 range) and he’d be an ideal fit for the Oilers.
knighttown
January 2, 2023 9:37 am
Read Levins article over at Cult about the gap on our breakouts, and have heard similar comments wingers like Hyman cheating for offense.
It’s so important to understand that this gap in the breakout isn’t a bug in the system…it’s a feature. A modern breakout includes this play…puck turns over in the d-zone…wingers take off to the other blue line to bring the defense with them and establish position. Defense just fire it at them…they tip it in and go on the forecheck. Or perhaps try the bump back Jesse muffed so badly the other night.
We need to reset our vision of the winger on the half wall moving it to the center coming from below the puck and everyone moving up together. This isn’t our current system. I coach myself and spoke to a phenomenal coach who has a kid playing prep school in Pittsburgh where they’ve recently moved to this system. He was told it’s done in an effort to reduce goals against. It’s kind of a modern dump and chase.
Now it is fair to question whether this is this teams best way forward but it isn’t fair to blame the wingers for cheating for offense when this is clearly what they’ve been asked to do.
Thanks for this. good post.
It’s obviously a big part of Woody’s game plan. Best suited for teams with below average D like the Oilers.
Fs who have presason goals of leading the scoring race probably like it – More space for easy offense and less chance of opposing D running them over.
The drawback is when the opposing D cut off these long bombs its a massive gap to the Oilers D so opposition reenters the zone at high speed with minimal back pressure. Hence more HD against off the rush with Nurse backing into the crease. Biggest problem with the Oilers running this system is very few Oilers F backtrack hard enough when the long bomb pickoff happens.
I understand why Woody runs this with the current roster, but I don’t think it’s a reliable long term strategy. Need to acquire more mobile D that are able to gain time and space to make tape to tape 1st passes and join a more connected rush.
This part of every team’s breakout. The opposing defensive player is trying to stay goal side of the winger, so the chance of cutting off this pass while skating backward is very small, that is why every team is doing this play.
Agree 100%. Our d corps is unable to execute this system on a consistent basis because most of them aren’t great passers. This has lead to an abundance of icings and the opposing players picking off passes.
Thanks for the informative post. Also Malays sense why Keith’s darts from the back end are noticeable by their absence this season. They miss that and the honey he poured in Bouch’s ear
knighttown
January 2, 2023 9:29 am
Mitchkov best shot in the class??
Considering some are putting Bedards shooting arsenal as the best of all time I find this astounding. I haven’t seen him play but I’m looking forward to it
AMD
January 2, 2023 9:11 am
I had Owen Beck at #32
Tarkus
January 2, 2023 8:51 am
Oilers would have a decent book on Ritchie, considering he was a teammate of Tullio’s in Oshawa. Same with Milic (Schaefer) in Seattle.
I wouldn’t get too attached to the 1st-rounder, or even the 2nd. I suspect both are trade bait at the deadline.
Seeing that talk has come up about Leon re-signing with the Oilers or not, how soon can negotiations start and how soon can he renew with the team if he and the team agree?
I believe he can‘t be extended until there is only one season left on his contract so basically after about July 1, 2024 (or whatever date free agency starts that year.)
Thanks Redbird!
THat’s correct but, of course, “negotiations” can start at any time – simply can’t sign any contract until July 1 heading in to the last season.
Here’s a trade that would never happen . Trade Draisaitl. for Ramus Dahlin.
Would that make the Oilers a better team?
Seeing the Winter Classic headline about Jake Debrusk being trade bait. Is he actually? Or are they just saying this because he was last year, or sometime before?
It seems like a sensationalist headline but maybe I’ve missed something on Debrusk still wanting out of Beantown. He’d be a good add for this team.
Playing around with Evolving Hockey.
Stuart Skinner is having a fine season.
He’s 6th in Goals Above Replacement/60 for goalies having played more than 10 games.
Behind Hellebuyck, Sarros, and ahead of Vasilevsky.
He’s 8th on GSAx. just behind Vasilevsky and Carter Hart.
He’s 5th in 5v5 SV% for over 500 minutes played.
Overall SV% depends on how many minutes toi used as a cutoff, but at least top 10 for those who’ve played over 1000 minutes.
Stalock’s having a good rebound season as a backup in Chicago.
Bedard is incredible. He shoots exactly like Markus Naslund did. Matthews does it as well but not as exaggerated as those guys.
Bedard has the shot of Matthews and the hands of McDavid. The only question I have about him is will the dominance translate as well as McDavid did considering the difference in speed. I doubt it will, but he’s clearly a generational talent.
Players who have just turned 17 can often use their growing strength and muscle mass to dramatically improve their skating.
Too early to rule that out.
Yes he is not on a CMD pace coming out of juniors, but he certainly is a clear level above his peers. It’s up to him where it goes
Actually he’s on pace for about 150 points playing on a crappy Regina Pats team.
McDavid scored 120 points in his last season playing on a stacked Erie Otters team that featured Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome for a total of 10 players who are currently playing in the NHL.
Some chatter that Bedard may get traded to a Memorial Cup contender which might increase his output further.
Mcdavid was nearly 2.6 ppg. Bedard is around 2.2 I think. Kane was 2.5… I don’t think Bedards points is the gotcha you think it is.
2.55 – 2.29
As mentioned…Bedard playing on a very poor team…not a stacked one.
That Erie team had 3 players over 100 points.
“Just turned 17?” Yes, almost 6 months ago (July 17). I guess that means in 2 weeks, we can say he is just about to turn 18.
Please feel free to say whatever you like.
You usually do, true or not. Just another bit of hyperbole on your behalf skewed heavily to the narrative you are promoting.
And also, it actually would be uncommon for a 5’10” 17 and half year old male to grow more than another inch. It could happen, but statistically, it is highly unlikely, which would make it uncommon.
https://www.cdc.gov/growthcharts/data/set1clinical/cj41c021.pdf
99% sure that chart shows he should grow about 1cm more. Less than half an inch is the expectation.
I don’t believe the chart you linked proves the point you think it does.
Nobody in the history of hockey has skated as well as McDavid, maybe Orr?
We can safely rule out Bedard improving his skating that much.
Makar skates that well…backward.
I’m not sure how that applies to Bedard becoming as good a skater as McDavid?
We don;’t know what we don’t know but I would imagine his speed will improve with age and physical maturity.
Of course his speed should improve. He seems like a dedicated generational talent. I fully expect it. But the original point was he doesn’t have the speed that 97 has, and won’t get there.
Generational is just that
It shouldn’t be expected that CB is that. He may turn out that good. Every exceptional player has exceptional skating almost without exception
And also size. The Coal Harbour guys are 6’ 200 lbs. CMD Underpants and Ovi are not small or bigger, etc etc
Bedard in the NHL until proven I would project as more like Caufield, also being a shooter first, and smaller than average. He may blow the doors off, or be a really good top line winger, which is fine
Stevie Y
Bedard is a way better prospect than Cole Caufield. Bedard is bigger than both Patrick Kane and Johnny hockey (and Caufield by 3 inches and 10 lbs). Jack Hughes is only and inch taller and 10 lbs lighter and he is well over a point a game, in seasons 3 and 4 post being selected number 1. If healthy, by age 20-21, Bedard is very likely to be a top 10 scorer in the NHL.
This. As I said below, I see a lot of Jack Hughes in CB and project he’ll take a few years to dominate in the NHL. Size matters in this league.
It’s cute to read articles suggesting any other player would be #1 pick.
Coffey was sneaky fast I’ll take his speed over Makar’s
Russian Rocket was close.
True. PB had blinding speed.
https://twitter.com/hayyyshayyy/status/1532517038928830473?s=20&t=Aq-Rjpyh-JZKM8Ng7tMqOA
Woah, woah, woah
HH will certainly counter with some worthless observation on how Bedard will “certainly get nearly as fast as McDavid, as he goes through the “growth spurt” I’m predicting (in his previous post) blah, blah, blah”.
Stop feeding the troll.
Unbelievably sad and shocking situation in tonight’s MNF game. Emergency CPR administered to Bills safety Damar Hamlin. His life appears in genuine jeopardy and the game is now temporarily suspended. Really puts things in perspective. So sad.
Well said. Professional athletes’ bodies are machines. It is scarey when things like this happen. I remember when Jiri Fischer and Jay Bouwmeester fainted during NHL play. When this happens to amateurs like us out-of-shape weekend warriors the outcome probably isn’t good.
Sad.
Dr. Peter McCullough pointed out in a recent paper that since the shots were deployed, 1598 athletes have suffered cardiac arrest, with 1101 of them dying. In order to find 1101 similar athlete deaths he has to examine a 38-year period.
Finally takes the puck to the net and he is rewarded. Beautiful goal from Bedard.
WOW!!!!!!!
I think that might be the first time Zellwegger has come off.
Wow what a save.
Wouldn’t mind taking a flyer and drafting this Slovak goalie late. He’s had some outstanding games against top competition.
He finally comes off the ice. Monster shift fr Bedard
Clarke makes me nervous with his decisions. Weary of him 3 on 3 in ot.
He hasn’t had a very good tournament to my eye and he’s starting to look like he’ll fit in with the growing list of meandering prospects from the once generational depth or start prospects in the Kings’ org.
That’s the clearest delay of game penalty I’ve ever seen and the stripes stand there like clowns.
International hockey is brutal.
Comical.
Canad has had what 6 goal posts? Slovaks feel like a team of destiny here. Except for that xcheck major ouch.
add another post
huge late powerplay. 34 seconds to play.
well you can’t ask for better opportunity than that
Bedard was probably shocked someone actually made a pass
Canada could’ve found a goal on that flurry
60 days until trade deadline.
What’s KH shopping for? Who/what’s expendable?
LT has has the constraints surrounded I think. Does KH give up this years 1st in a deep draft? Does he give up this years 1st knowing that Draisaitl’s contract is up in a couple of years and the organizational depth at Centre is weak?
I think his answer should (will) be “No”.
I think KH could use someone from a glut on the LW instead:
Kane
Hyman
Kostin
Holloway
Foegele
Janmark
Schaefer
Petrov
-and then make a choice between Barrie and Bouchard at RD.
Target a heavy shutdown RD and a 3C according to cap space cleared.
Kane McDavid Draisaitl
Hyman RNH Puljujarvi
Kostin (N.Sturm) Holloway
Janmark McLeod Ryan
Shore
Nurse Ceci
Broberg Barrie
Kulak/Nielmelainen Gudas
Are we just assuming Drai doesn’t resign? I know he will be due a raise but the cap is going up too and I’d like to think he’s enjoying his time in Edmonton.
Sorry missed that you have Drai at rw.
Bedard seems quite mortal in this game with Slovakia.
The whole team does, yet he has 2 points.
Drai does that trick all the time. 97 occasionally, by his standards.
Okay, that was a good goal.
His stats are pumped (no fault of his) by the Gord-aweful uncompetitiveness of Germany and Austria this year. Slovakia is another level.
I predict he’ll take a Jack Hughes path to NHL glory – couple of seasons of flashes and injuries, then major impact.
I’ll predict more of a Patrick Kane level out of the gate.
With your rankings I’d take at #16 Dalibor Dvorsky
Many NHL teams will face the Oilers and have confidence to just play “their” game. Sutter wont change. Bruins, Stars, Avalanche etc
But there is a game plan that seems to be an Oiler killer. Minnesota, LA, Jets, they turtle up in the defensive zone. Keep Oilers to the outside where Oilers are happy to stay for the most part. Block every lane, sticks everywhere, aggressively contest slot, clear every rebound. You might say all teams do this but some do it better and with more purpose. Oilers struggle with fancy shots, net front presence, and looking for back door plays.
Its not the trap though, its the opposite. Two man high pressure forecheck. Pressure the turnover.
Play a different game and the Oilers will beat you. Play this game and even an injury riddled team can prevail.
The heat map, SCF and HDCF would say otherwise in the Winnipeg game. We dominated that game, including in the royal road.
They haven’t developed a proper top end cycle. They can these days keep the puck in the O zone, but if they don’t have the passes they typically look for they bang it around the perimeter and to the point until they lose it, or try really low percentage stuff like trying to stuff it in
This is why I don’t like team comments like ‘find a way to win’ and ‘in the blue paint’. There is a way to do what that means, but those wods in themselves don’t necessarily mean more than what the Oilers do
And that is getting shut down offensively 5v5, and also PP, if teams don’t give them anything easy or just clog the N zone and D zone up. They also get stuffed pretty easy in the D zone still
The Oilers feel they can score, but really they can run up goals on teams that give them the space, and still get choked out otherwise
The other thing I don’t like to read here is ‘hot goalie’. I haven’t seen any goalie go full Tretiak or Fuhr on them this season. What I have seen is a lot of forcing and low percentage plays. A lack of patience and strategy. 3rd stringers looking like NHL goalies, really because the shots are not really that dangerous, counted as such or not
This is on Woody. A step in game maturity and a strategy to go to when that happens
I don’t buy that this is normal for top teams. ‘Hot goalies’ don’t stop a season’s top teams. Or that injuries mean you can’t play as a team at a high level, unless it’s excessive injuries
You don’t get to these numbers and take excuses. Losses: Bruins 4, Canes 6, Laughs 8, Dallas 9, Oilers 16
If the Oilers want to be a top team, as almost everyone agrees they “should’ be, that is the mind set they need to adopt – players, coaches, GM, POHO, Owner. No excuses outside of extraordinary, and have the game plan to win every style of game, choked off, hot goalie, rough, whatever, pond hockey fun or a brutal slog. Every game
Run up goals when it’s there, or battle to victory, with strategy
Or you can’t be a top team
Absolutely agree!
From the practice lines:
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Foegele-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Janmark-RNH-Kostin
Holloway-McLeod-Ryan
Sure is easy to see the hole in the line-up, eh? That’s too much to ask of Foegele, but better to ask it of him than Janmark. Each center has a physical winger to play with, and there’s hands on every line… this setup should still win games.
Holloway has an opportunity here, while Kane is out, if he can force his way up the line-up. Seize the moment like Kostin has. The second half split is where we should see the lad make hay. Over the past couple of weeks, he looks like he’s found his identity on the ice and has developed a toolkit of base plays he knows he can safely go-to. The game looks like it is starting to slow for him… ie less thinking and more doing. I’m hoping we will see him take a full step forward this month.
And The Klimmer Twin, well what can you say? The only thing now is to see what kind of sustain he has. How consistently he can make that kind of impact on a game.
That line-up will look even better with Kane in it, but we also have to picture it probably missing one Jesse Puljujarvi. That’s a big hole to my eye and worries me more than the D (depending on Broberg’s health). And it can’t be completely filled by simply getting a quality 4C. Need a quality 3rd liner, at least.
JP has been firing shots right off his stick for a couple of games now, creating some dangerous chances. He’s been thinking net much more often and that has made him more predictable to his linemates too. Still racking up the hits every game, which is great to see–you have to love the try in this kid. He looks so useful to me, more so in the long term than Yams does, I will be sad to see him go.
I like your comments on Holloway. To my eye he seems such an obvious choice for a boost. Hes fast, hits, forechecks, gets in the tough areas. As much as Im enjoying Klim on the team, I see Holloway passing him and others to seize a position beside Draisaitl for the zone entry speed, and turnover machine.
Is 3LW really the hole, or is it 1/2RW?
I see Yamamoto as a great 3rd line wing but results haven’t been there consistently above that. He is a very good penalty killer as well for value added.
Well there is the 63%GF he has with Draisaitl over the past 4 seasons.
Well, by the line-up it is 1/2RW. Or at least that’s what I’m trying to demonstrate. Now Hyman, Nuge and Foggy do allow Holland some flexibility on replacing JP, an acquisition can be either wing or a C.
It is probably too much to hope for a top 6 winger this season to replace Pujo’s minutes, but adding a 4th liner isn’t enough to compensate for the loss, IMO.
He might think adding Kostin is enough, I dunno. I’m sure he had the JP situation on his mind when he made the trade for Klim. But I think they need another quality forward.
Happy New Year Lowtidians!
So a few thoughts:
Did anyone see who went over the boards in the last 5 seconds of the Seattle game? A big defencemen took a run at Ryan or Yamamoto (I think) and hit them over the boards and into the Seattle bench. All you could see in the frame was the players skates going over. Please someone corroborate.
Then we see Dillon taking multiple runs at Yamamoto trying to obliterate him.
We were lucky in Calgary not to lose Connor for a few games, though I do agree with Woodcroft and I did not see intention behind the knee to knee hit, only a McDavid who is in front of you one second and beside you in an instant. But we lost Leon from another dirty play. The 2 points were not guaranteed, it could have been a loss. Then exasperated by losing again without Leon in the line up.
The playoffs last year were significantly affected when LA went after Oilers skilled players on purpose, after the whistle, at every opportunity. The goal was to put them off their games.
This managing of the intimidation, deterring cheap shots, its a real thing.
This team was playing similar last year. Then Kane showed up. His presence on the ice, talking, chirping, challenging, it makes a difference. No he cannot prevent injuries, but he can make a difference. I doubt those runs that Dillon was taking would have occurred.
One tough player is not going to win games. We all know it has to be the right player, and that is a rare player. But in building balance, there has to be recognition that this player is important and should be included somewhere on the roster as they make everybody a little bit bigger and bolder and collectively, it does help win games.
I look forward to having Kane and Kostin in the lineup at the same time!
GMs have no shame in trying to tank.
One premise I’ve always assumed is that coaches always try to win, no matter what they’re given or who’s on the draft list.
The other assumption I’ve always had is that coaches play their best players (or who they feel are their best players) the most.
What does everyone think about these two assumptions?
Given those two assumptions, I did find it curious that Jake McCabe is losing a minute at 5v5 (edit: per game) and a minute and change overall to a 35-year-old, also left shot, Jack Johnson.
Isn’t that because McCabe is leading his own pairing, while Johnson is Seth Jones’ wingman?
Chicago has quite the blender going on d pairings.
McCabe did start the season playing with Seth, then he actually played with Jake, now he’s playing with Caleb.
Still, even if a coach is playing one player up the lineup to even out pairings, I’d still expect better players to play more.
Usually that’s the case at least. If you’re going to make your #5 dman play top pairing to balance out the pairings, you’re probably not going to have him play 18 minutes per night at 5v5.
Caleb’s minutes are pretty much the same as last year. McCabe is actually playing 40 seconds less at 5v5 than he did last year.
Perhaps a function of McCabe missing 3 games with injury?
Sorry, I meant at a per game rate. Jack Johnson is playing a minute per game more than McCabe at 5v5. Overall, Jack Johnson is playing a 1 minute and 13 seconds more per game.
I think Bedard will be an excellent player, but the NHL will lean on him and neutralize him to some degree.
Like they lean on McDavid ?
McDavid has more physical advantages.
6’1 and the fastest player to ever play.
Important to remember Bedard just turned 17.
No one has any idea how tall or heavy he will be at McDavid’s age but it is not uncommon to see growth spurts in the late teens.
Reid Wilkins
@ReidWilkins
·
26m
Draisaitl said he recovered quicker than he thought he would from his injury. Expect him to play tomorrow.
Holiday is over Leon time to go on a heater.
He does have 15 points in his last 10 games……
Everyone knows the “McCabe rumour” isn’t an actual rumour, right?
A caller to Bob’s show put his name forward as a possible target. Bob agreed it was a possiblity and liked the player so the next day threw the name at Elliotte, who also thought McCabe was likely one of the many guys Holland was kicking tires on. (Elliotte is pretty sure Holland has had talks about every defender on the non-contenders)
Elliotte then mentioned the name on HNIC and we are here. Pretty thin stuff though.
In Canada that is a solid hockey lead
Edmundson, Klingberg, Chychrun, Gavrikov, McCabe, seems like we are going to cycle through all the possible options haha.
Klim seems just fine (and absolutely hilarious, as usual):
https://twitter.com/oilygifs/status/1609991965546016768?s=20
Trending towards everyone being available for tomorrow:
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
·
1h
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Foegele-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Janmark-RNH-Kostin
Holloway-McLeod-Ryan
Shore-Hamblin
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Barrie
Broberg-Bouchard
Niemelainen
Skinner
Campbell
Woody on Drai:
“He had a good skate on the game day and then yesterday he and I skated together and he had a good practice today. I haven’t followed up with him or the medical department but it was a good sign today”
Almost everyone 😉
Healthier than we’ve been in a long while, and good to see.
Yes, it’s early.
How about the top 15 picks in the 2019 draft.
Who is not tracking well?
*Very* cursory look says:
Alex Turcotte
Vasili Podkolzin
Victor Soderstrom
Philip Broberg
All the rest appear to be bangers….
Cam York appears to be on the top pair for Philly and has 6 points in 10 games this year.
12-Boldy has 12 goals already
13- Knight in Florida is close to stealing the starters job
14-York top pair limited games so far – decent start
15- Caufield – has 21 goals already
Young players having an impact early.
I think either Caufield or Boldy would be close to 50 goal scorers – now-taking passes from Leon Draisaitl.
Turcotte with multiple concussions.
I did not know that….thanks
Holloway with multiple wrist surgeries
How is Broberg not tracking well. He is in the NHL in his draft+4. The only D significantly ahead of him in games played are Seider, Bjornfot, and Byram. Bjornfot didn’t stay in Sweden post draft.
Broberg is right in the same area of 40 games +/-10 as York, Jones, Harley, Kolyachonek, Heinola, and would be ahead if not for injuries this year and last.
Often the games played totals can be misleading if the context is not examined.
You mentioned Harley who is a very fine prospect but with limited NHL games thanks to who is ahead of him on the depth chart.
Heiskanen
Lindell
Suter
The same is true for Heinola in Winnipeg:
Morrissey
Schmidt
Stanley
Dillion
He is currently in the NHL because two of those are injured.
Thing is, there is no one blocking Broberg in the Oilers system until/unless Holland acquires another LD.
Broberg is a June birthday. So on the younger end of his draft class. He aced his first year in the AHL, and had two callups, and was significantly better in the 2nd one. He would be a regular in the NHL this year if not for injury.
Schmidt played right side D in Vegas and plays right side D in Winnipeg. Heinola only spent one year in Europe before coming over.
Heiskanen is played mostly right side D last year. Dallas thought so highly of Harley that they decided to push Harley back to the AHL by moving Heiskanen back to the left side and add Lundqvist (a year older right shot D from the Rangers), and Colin Miller (pretty meh player). Looks pretty much like a failed audition to me, when two smaller more offensive oriented D push you back to the AHL.
Yes…Broberg is now ensconced as #3 LD so what happens if Holland adds another LD as most are expecting?
Does Kułak get punted to 7D or is it Broberg?
The Winnipeg D situation is always murky but the one defining characteristic is that they slow play their prospects. Morrissey spent a season in the AHL.
Dallas always wanted Heiskanen to play on his natural side which is why they traded for Lundqvist.
This has nothing to do with Harley who is a left shot D playing behind the 3 I stated. BTW Harley is even younger with an Aug. 19 birthday.
People always overlook the importance of the 7th defenseman. They play a ton. Imagine having enough depth to argue over who sits? Music!
The WPG/LAK gambit.
This has been going on for some time and is silly. Broberg’s progress, injuries aside, has been anywhere from textbook to ahead of the curve. People don’t like him because the Oilers didn’t choose a USA forward. Broberg didn’t draft himself, and the draft was done in summer 2019. Time to move on.
That may be so, but Klef and Broberg are an interesting comparison.
Klefbomb and Broberg are both June birthdays.
Klef was playing 18:48 per night at 5v5 in his d+4. Those were number 1 minutes on the Oilers.
Broberg is playing 11:18 at 5v5.
Even allowing for the better depth we have now, it doesn’t appear that Broberg is Klefbomb 2.0.
I think Broberg’s injury impacted this season. When Woodcroft took over last season, Broberg averaged 10:41 at five-on-five and had a 50 percent goal share.
Klefbom did average 18:48 per night and owned a 40 percent goal share.
You pointed out the one weird stat about Klefbom.
I remember he always had that poor 5v5 GF%.
He was only above 50% once in his NHL career in 2016-17.
His expected goals were usually much better, but there used to be debates here about why his actual GF% was always so low.
Klefbom was the 2nd best defenseman on the team as a rookie, next to Petry. The best after Petry was traded. Why wouldn’t he be playing 19 minutes?
in Broberg’s first call up last year when all the D were injured, Ceci and Broberg were clocking in the high teens for minutes as a pair.
Yes, this is true but in draft plus 3, the numbers favour Broberg substantially over Klef (in the AHL), in particular on the offensive side.
Yes, Klefbom played up the lineup in his draft plus 4 (first full NHL season) but that wasn’t because he was ready, it was because he was forced. He was a -20 at 5 on 5 while playing with the best players on the team (TOI most common with Shultz, Eberle, Nuge, Percell, Yakupov, Hall).
There is no reason to think that today’s Broberg would’t be given the exact same reps as Klef on that team, right?
We don’t know where things will do with Broberg over the next few years but he’s tracking right on pace and the only reason he hasn’t played nightly is injury, right?
The other LD in Klefbom’s rookie season were Ference, Nikitin and Keith Aulie.
Nikitin was paid $4.5 m dollars annually, that should have bought you a pretty good defenseman back then 😉
Fair.
I guess I am not seeing too many flashes of – first pairing D.
I am seeing him – okay- at 3rd pairing minutes.
Ok at 3rd pairing minutes is OK when he’s on the 2nd year of his ELC and just turned 21 in the summer….. right?
York’s ‘limited games’ are because he was in the minors for the first 20
(likewise half of last season).
McDavid having a little fun with Barrie on a skating drill:
https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1609981980057239553?s=20
Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
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38m
Draisaitl and Kostin on the ice this morning. Draisaitl skating on a regular line here with Foegele and Yamamoto.
Kostin does not want to lose his job.
@RussoHockey
Seattle vs. Vegas at T-Mobile Park in Seattle is the next Winter Classic, Gary Bettman announces on TNT
this would be a Fun one for sure !!
Not sure how they are going to handle the potential for heavy rain.
Likely press the ‘Roof closed’ button on the control panel.
Kind of ruins the whole Outdoor game vibe doesn’t it.
Sort of like you hanging around here.
Gene Principe
@GenePrincipe
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37m
Great sign that Leon Draisaitl and Klim Kostin are skating with @EdmontonOilers
main group at practice.
Rob Brown pointed out that Kostinn had lost his skate blade on that hit at the end of the game and he felt that was the only reason Klim left the ice so awkwardly.
Looks like he called it right.
All thanks be to Gord!
It’s a (post)-Festivus miracle!
(post)-Festivus for the Restivus!
The math doesn’t have Samuel Honzek as a first round prospect?
Where is the prospect with average skating that has a connection to Edmonton or a prior Oiler?
Gold
Reid Schaefer needs to work on his skating and Joel Maatta has some issues with the boots, both from last year’s draft.
It is stronger option with slow boots AND and connections
Trading the 1st rounder this year is certainly a possibility but I’m not positive its a lock.
I am not saying not to diligence all possible upgrades for this season or make moves to upgrade – I just look at the cap situation and, unless something changes, its next year that the team will have the real ability to be substantial players in-season. Simply being out of LTIR hell (presumably), will allow daily accrual of cap space and the pro-rating of contracts acquired in season – those things will be huge.
The 2023 first-round selection is the most valuable trade asset in Holland’s bag. He hasn’t dealt a first yet, though. My guess is he keeps it, doesn’t seem to be enough to entice him among the available deadline pieces. That could change, of course.
Its definitely a valuable piece and it could very well be used (or not used).
At the same time, the player drafted with the pick will also be a valuable piece at next year’s deadline, right?
The cap situation and LTIR make it very hard and very expensive to materially improve in-season this year. It should be different next season and this year’s first round pick will remain a valuable trade asset at next year’s deadline as well, right?
Teams tend to value the pick more highly, suspect it’s because they can put their stamp on a team and the team gets credit for making the pick in the local media. I think Holland must calculate the value of drafting a quality player this year when it’s likely said player won’t help the NHL team win games until at least 2025 fall.
I’m guessing he will trade the pick this year (though it may be for a player with some term rather than a rental).
Holland is extremely patient, but there’s some real urgency with this 3 year window (which winning will help to extend).
We’ll see, but I don’t think he’s just going to stockpile indefinitely.
Agreed. Next year is more go-time. Unfortunately this is true for a few teams and the competition will be greater.
But, given the tightness of the cap, very good chance the 1st is still with the team after the deadline.
Picks to second teams retaining salary will likely be at a premium this deadline with the number of teams trying to navigate their LTIR issues.
Arg, imo it should be go time from yesterday up until 29/97 either resign or leave. The road is running out extremely quick.
The League’s cap issues stemming from pandemic policies have limited the team’s ability to reorganize the roster. That’s a fact of reality and it cares not what the aspirations of the org are.
Maybe Holland can find a path through, but he will need some cookies to crumble the right way, and when there are circumstances out of one’s control, things don’t always go as well as hoped.
The important thing is to not eff up the next two years just to make this a go-year.
Within reason, I tend to agree. Even if they resign, it will be very difficult to build a balanced roster around two mammoth contracts. Not impossible, but nothing about recent management trends in Edmonton gives much hope.
It is “go time” but, at the same time, management has to be smart about it. The cap and LTIR circumstances are real and they create major impediments to improve materially. There are only so many bullets. Spending the 1st rounder this year (which may happen and may be a good move) means that asset won’t be available when here is more ability to actually improve next deadline, right?
Damn, I hope the Oilers don’t draft around 16th – that’s essentially making the playoffs as a wild card team and losing in the 1st round. Its definitely not out of the realm of possibility and, well, probably reasonably likely given how the season has gone, but I hope not.
Presuming relative health, I don’t see the top end of this team losing in the first round – we saw what supernova Connor/Leon can do over a 2-4 game playoff stretch.
Depends who they play. If they are WC, how could anyone peg them as favourites over Dallas or Vegas?
To think Draisaitl won’t be resigning here makes Brantford Boy a sad panda 🙁
Although I doubt we retain the 1st round pick this year so there’s that…
Is that what you’re hearing?
Huh? What are you talking about?
What makes you think he won’t re-sign in Edmonton?
I read today’s post
Lots of forwards in the top ten this year. I wouldn’t mind the Oilers taking a D man this year with their first pick. The Oiler scouts are doing a fine job these days but once Broberg becomes an NHL regular they don’t have any prospects who project to be a top pair guy.
Very few in here more critical of this org and it’s management than me…
However, I do feel this team’s drafting has been really good, in general.
As LT always points out, no guarantees on anything but they are not wondering off the path very far.
The one time they wandered, they were solely, and completely, focused on one player. And telegraphed that pick ahead of time.
Other than the twitter post, is there any news about Kostin?
I looked fo4 that IG/twitter post OP mentioned yesterday and could not find. I’m back to being pessimistic about the injury.
Looks like some good news above!
We know now that he’s good to go (and his media avail today was fantastic) but, to the IG post, it was an “insta-story” so it lasts for 24 hours and then disappears. The screen shot of it is all over the internet (including tweeted by the Oilers’ official Account yesterday).
I’ve had my eye on Matthew Wood for a while. He may be available when the Oilers draft (many scouts have him in the 21-28 range) and he’d be an ideal fit for the Oilers.
Read Levins article over at Cult about the gap on our breakouts, and have heard similar comments wingers like Hyman cheating for offense.
It’s so important to understand that this gap in the breakout isn’t a bug in the system…it’s a feature. A modern breakout includes this play…puck turns over in the d-zone…wingers take off to the other blue line to bring the defense with them and establish position. Defense just fire it at them…they tip it in and go on the forecheck. Or perhaps try the bump back Jesse muffed so badly the other night.
We need to reset our vision of the winger on the half wall moving it to the center coming from below the puck and everyone moving up together. This isn’t our current system. I coach myself and spoke to a phenomenal coach who has a kid playing prep school in Pittsburgh where they’ve recently moved to this system. He was told it’s done in an effort to reduce goals against. It’s kind of a modern dump and chase.
Now it is fair to question whether this is this teams best way forward but it isn’t fair to blame the wingers for cheating for offense when this is clearly what they’ve been asked to do.
Thanks for this. good post.
It’s obviously a big part of Woody’s game plan. Best suited for teams with below average D like the Oilers.
Fs who have presason goals of leading the scoring race probably like it – More space for easy offense and less chance of opposing D running them over.
The drawback is when the opposing D cut off these long bombs its a massive gap to the Oilers D so opposition reenters the zone at high speed with minimal back pressure. Hence more HD against off the rush with Nurse backing into the crease. Biggest problem with the Oilers running this system is very few Oilers F backtrack hard enough when the long bomb pickoff happens.
I understand why Woody runs this with the current roster, but I don’t think it’s a reliable long term strategy. Need to acquire more mobile D that are able to gain time and space to make tape to tape 1st passes and join a more connected rush.
This part of every team’s breakout. The opposing defensive player is trying to stay goal side of the winger, so the chance of cutting off this pass while skating backward is very small, that is why every team is doing this play.
Agree 100%. Our d corps is unable to execute this system on a consistent basis because most of them aren’t great passers. This has lead to an abundance of icings and the opposing players picking off passes.
I’ll bet goaltenders love that system. Sounds like a system that would be suitable for the playoffs. Oilers should definitely consider this.
Oilers already have both type of breakouts in their tactical system. Depends on the opposition’s forecheck which way they go on any given exit.
Thanks for the informative post. Also Malays sense why Keith’s darts from the back end are noticeable by their absence this season. They miss that and the honey he poured in Bouch’s ear
Mitchkov best shot in the class??
Considering some are putting Bedards shooting arsenal as the best of all time I find this astounding. I haven’t seen him play but I’m looking forward to it
I had Owen Beck at #32
Oilers would have a decent book on Ritchie, considering he was a teammate of Tullio’s in Oshawa. Same with Milic (Schaefer) in Seattle.
I wouldn’t get too attached to the 1st-rounder, or even the 2nd. I suspect both are trade bait at the deadline.