Last night was a hockey disaster. The officials made some of the poorest calls in memory, and those calls had a major impact on the score. Edmonton’s penalty kill, a wayward unit most of the season, licked the frog all night and that too was key to the loss. Through it all, there were some rays of hope. The team got mad, and that can be good. Evan Bouchard had an eventful game, some of it good. Ryan McLeod scored. Small victories can be big steps.
Don’t get me wrong, this loss hurts and the organization may be headed for a disaster deadline (not much to sell) if wins don’t happen. It is worth noting, however, that the young Oilers joined the battle last night. Ironically, it came on a night Stuart Skinner, the one yute who has been splendid, was pulled in favor of Jack Campbell.
The Kings and Oilers have a history of ridiculous games, and I actually muttered to the dog “I bet Garry Unger takes a dumb penalty before this is over” and she chuckled. Well, maybe she didn’t, but she should have.
The Edmonton Oilers 2022-23 season, so far, has been hoyvin-glavin. And that's putting it mildly.https://t.co/iiGEMN9gV4
At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
January actual result: 1-2-1, 3 points in 4 games
December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
Oilers in 2022-23: 21-17-3, 45 points in 41 games
At this point, I’m going to suspend talk of playoffs or projections of total points after 82. If the Oilers get back into the race, I’ll be sure to bring back the trajectory and Oilers place in the western conference. For now? You don’t want to know. Also, don’t let people fool you on total points. Use winning percentage, because teams have played an uneven number of games. So, in winning percentage Edmonton is No. 10, with St. Louis a win (game in hand) from tying the Oilers.
THE PENALTY KILL
Highly recommended. Many NHL teams have one.
Q AND A
How bad is it? It’s bad. The coaching staff has tried everything but circled back to a bad solution. Jay Woodcroft is a smart man, he’s doing what he believes to be the best path forward. And you know, I like him, if it weren’t for the mountain of evidence against his current mindset, I might endorse it. The chip and chase is not a real solution. It’s like the Bob Hartley-coached Flames and their famous “counter strike” where after getting fed defensively someone would score on a breakaway. It can work in a ‘this is your lucky day!’ fashion, but it doesn’t actually work over a season.
Is there any good news? Evan Bouchard had a couple of points, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod scored, Philip Broberg had an assist, Jesse Puljujarvi drew two penalties and got into a fight.
You call that a fight? He answered the bell. You can’t crap on a guy for being soft and then rip him when he isn’t an expert fighter. JP manned up, even though it’s miles from his game. A few Oilers could have used some of his balls in the game. Not as fighters, but pushing through and winning battles.
Is there any good news? Last spring, Connor McDavid reached a boiling point against the Los Angeles Kings in Games 6 and 7 of the classic series between these two teams. The captain proceeded to play some of the best hockey I’ve ever seen from him (which is also the best hockey I’ve ever seen) and flattened the Kings. That could happen again.
How does this magic happen? Well, it isn’t a stretch to believe this team feels everyone is against them after the officiating last night. Sometimes that serves as a catalyst for a team. If McDavid sets his jaw, this road trip, a vital one, could still have a happy ending.
Is there any good news? Vincent Desharnais is going to make his NHL debut in the Anaheim game, that’s going to be must watch television for draft and prospect nerds like me.
Best stat about the Oilers recently? In his last nine games five-on-five, Evan Bouchard is 9-4 goals. Regression!
How ugly could this get? If the Oilers don’t make the playoffs, I expect we’ll see major changes.
Coach? GM? Higher? I don’t think owner Daryl Katz will stay the course if there’s a failure now, so that could mean overhaul.
Who would be the new GM? Completely open. Internal candidates are Brad Holland and Keith Gretzky, probably too early for Steve Staios to be a strong candidate and Paul Coffey is always being mentioned.
Are you serious? Katz has followed the NHL playbook twice now (Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland), there may be an appetite to go another direction.
Who would you recommend? Eric Tulsky, assistant general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes.
When did he play for the Oilers? Point taken, but you asked and I answered.
Why can’t this team win? Get good players, keep good players. Jack Campbell’s goaltending is a major problem. He has to get right, and he’s starting the next two games based on Mark Spector’s reporting. So, that’s a big moment for Holland and his reputation.
What would you change? I’d try a young forward with two veteran forwards for a time. Take Ryan McLeod as an example. Play him for 10 games on the line he played on last night. At five-on-five, McLeod-Draisaitl-Hyman went 10-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 6-1 HDSC in 7:25. Run that trio for 10 games, see what you have.
What would you change? Dylan Holloway has to find a more prominent role. His speed is a weapon and the Oilers don’t use it enough. I do not know if he’s going to score enough to play a top-six role, but this would be a time to try him out. Once Evander Kane is back, the opportunity goes away.
Who gets dealt to make room for Kane? Warren Foegele was scratched recently, so maybe that’s a tell. Jesse Puljujarvi is often mentioned as a possible option. Edmonton has two veterans (Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan) vulnerable to waivers when Kane gets back purely because of their cap hit. One would hope both veterans stay in Edmonton for the duration.
How bad is it? Unless I’m wrong, Ken Holland has boxed himself in with the Campbell signing. It’s similar to what Peter Chiarelli did to himself when signing Kris Russell in June of 2017. There’s no way out now. He’s all-in with what you see.
Could this team miss the playoffs? Oh God yes. Seattle Kraken are your basic worst nightmare, another VGK in the division as things currently look. There are likely four spots for Pacific teams, and those two clubs are a lock based on current trajectory. The Kings, Flames and Oilers should be fighting for the last spot, but LAK are trying to run away and hide.
Is there any good news? The kids played well last night. Philip Broberg is coming along now. That is a solid development, if not for this year, then for the next one. It’s early to be next year country, but we are here. Same as it ever was.
The Dumba trade is a hard one to fathom for the Oilers. The Wild aren’t going to pull the chute on the season, they’re 3rd in the central.
Michael Russo says they want an asset that can help this year.
Then there’s the $6m cap hit.
EW has 18-16-26 1 year, 3 year is 24-20-54
PuckIQ has him 4rth in CTOI against elites
He plays 21:11 per night overall.
He’s only been over 1 point per hour at 5v5 3 of the past 9 seasons (including this one).
2 min per night on the PK. No PP time.
He’s 2nd in total toi on the wild without playing any PP time.
He plays the most at 5v5 and sort of 2nd unit PK guy.
That’s a bit of a weird mix or results and minutes. Sort of like a poor man’s Darnell Nurse.
He seems like a guy who could help. Is he worth the price though and how much does he move the needle?
That might get Carter Savoie healthy scratched – egregious poor defensive zone play leading to the, likely, winning goal against with under 2 to go.
Ranford.85
January 10, 2023 9:01 pm
Not great at updates.
Philp pots a rebound goal, goes 5 hole to tie it at 3. Lavoie gets into a tilt and feeds the Wrangler player quite a few good shots before the refs step in. Nice to see.
Lavoie took a bad penalty in the 2nd and was benched for the rest of the period. He had the fight early in the 3rd after throwing a big hit on the forecheck. Lavoie landed 3-4 big shots in the title. Holty was fired up!
Diablo
January 10, 2023 8:32 pm
I wonder if Nurse would waive his NMC for a trade to the States, and live closer to his sister. This Provorov thing intrigues me … Nurse is a Torts kind of defenseman. Donovan McNabb’s nephew in Philly is something that would appease the masses there. I’m ready for the 9.25 million dollar starfish to move on.
Darnell’s never going to live that contract down in Edmonton … he’s going to be Horcoff’d out of town eventually.
Provorov is on the outs big time in Philly … he’s ready for a move.
Nurse is the better defenseman, but that contract is just awful. Provorov is younger and cheaper, and like Nurse plays big minutes against tough competition, and like Nurse is more of a top end 2nd pairing/bottom-end 1st pairing LHD. I would love to find a way to have both on the Oilers, but that’s not realistic in a cap world unless the Flyers retain some dollars and Oilers send a potential lottery pick to them.
Philly is the one team that throws cap efficiency out the door (to their own detriment, but at least they’re entertaining if you’re into morbid curiosity). There is 2.5 million dollar cap savings, and Provorov’s contract ends when Leon’s does.
Waive JP, or trade Yamo. Give Phili our first rounder plus a prospect for Provorov with 50% retained. He’s been regressing the last 3 seasons and it sounds like both parties want to move on, so I question how much he’d cost.
I’ve mentioned trying to move Darnell McNabb to Philly a few times on this blog already. If you could do it stratight up for Provorov and use the cap savings +++to fit Chychrun in as well, we are a much better team.
It’s going to fun watching both these teams stumble and bumble their way to a lottery ticket for Connor Bedard. I can definitely see Edmonton ending the season with better odds.
Last edited 1 year ago by Diablo
OriginalPouzar
January 10, 2023 7:34 pm
Kambietz take a pass from Mckegg, enters the zone, no danger, snaps one from the side-boards/hashmarks – Holty raving about the shot but there is no chance that should go in…… past glove of Wolf.
Broberg is a year younger than Bear was when Tippett said knock knock.
Broberg – Bouchard are both good, smart players and they are playing *together*. Cohesive. Love it. No wild card shit, just solid plays, winning battles, nice outlets, rinse and repeat.
I don’t think there needs to be a fear, per se, of elevating them too quickly. My fear is letting the playoffs slip away or worse, using a first rounder to acquire an inferior D that will block/separate them.
Agree fully – for me, the only way I think a CHycrhun acquisition, for example, makes sense is if Kulak is moved (not necessarily in the ARI trade) and Broberg is NOT in the deal (nor Bouchard). That’s required for cap structuring and Broberg is there for injury cover and, well, when CHycrhun prices himself out for his next contract, Broberg should be a legit 2LD (or not more).
OriginalPouzar
January 10, 2023 7:27 pm
AHL all-stars will be named tomorrow – I presume Kesslering and that’s about it from the Condors – maybe Griffith but “meh”…..
OriginalPouzar
January 10, 2023 7:26 pm
Bailey with a shot from distance – top goalie Wolf gives out a rebound and, after a bit of a scramble, first pairing d-man Alex Peters buries it. 1-0 Condors.
Condors with a quick strike 2 on 0 and no shot on net (Kaldis with a bad pass almost behind Hambln).
Next shift Bailey in on a quick strike break but the d-man dives to get his stick on the shot – in any event, two great looks early is not the norm against the Wranglers – good looks but no shots.
Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar
January 10, 2023 7:08 pm
Holt says that Kesselring could possibly play on Friday – that would be great – it seems like a good couple weeks he’s been out ill.
OriginalPouzar
January 10, 2023 7:06 pm
Holy hell is the Dome absolutely empty compared to Sunday (which also had the “Family Skate” following the game.
If the Oilers aren’t in a playoff position come March, I would hope that no more than a 4th rounder is sent out.
OriginalPouzar
January 10, 2023 6:59 pm
Although sometimes its tough to tell when sitting so low to the ice at the arena (site lines aren’t great to all areas of the ice, etc.), I thought that Lavoie was completely ineffective on Sunday and hope that is just a one game blip – if he’s off his heater, that’s one thing but he can’t just disappear for the better part of 6 weeks.
Didn’t see Bourgault making an impact on Sunday either.
Of course, the Wranglers are a top team in the league.
I don’t get to watch the Condors unfortunately. What do you make of Colin Chaulks less than ringing endorsements on Bourgault on Bob’s show every week.
He hasn’t done that in a while and I don’t think they were all that negative – talked about inconsistency with making the right play. What I didn’t/don’t agree with is his using mistakes by rookies as a weapon, healthy scratching kids and, with Bourgault, cratering his ice and offensive opportunities – unless he was making the same mistake over and over.
Seattle has one of the most underrated winners of all time in Ron Francis. We better hope Hollands kid Brad has more forward thinking then himself are else we are back in the dark for another decade.
Taking Steve Kelly instead of listening to the mob chants for hometown farm boy Shane Doan was the biggest miss. We sure could use a forward with some nasty in his game right about now.
OriginalPouzar
January 10, 2023 5:46 pm
Seattle continues to load up acquiring Dylan Guenther for like 10 assets, seriously. I’m sure this is contingent on him being sent down by Arizona which could very well be the case prior to him hitting 40 games on their roster……
The Kraken have only played 39 games. I presume the games played when he was loaned out to Team Canada don’t count – he must not have been on the roster for those games, at a technical matter…..
I don’t believe for a second that anyone in Oilers’ management is dictating how Woodcroft coaches. I have no idea what evidence one might have to show meddling….
The players play the games. The coach is a facilitator. If is frustrating that none of the coaches who have been here have helped Connor become a leader, and instead depend on him to be a hero.
Connor is a cheat sheet for the Coach. Why roll 4 lines and get everyone involved when I can triple shift Connor Why form a line that I can match-up when I can throw Connor on the ice. Why have someone else on the ice besides Leon and Connor when the other team pulls their Goalie.
I don’t watch Provorov much being that he plays for Philly.
Evolving Wild’s model doesn’t particularly like him. You have to give him a bump on their scale for being on a bad team since their model doesn’t often correct enough.
1-year 30-29-29
3-year 39-62-23
PuckIQ is weird for Eastern Conference teams. They have like 6 guys playing at or near 30% CTOI vs elites. Some other teams in the East have that too. Maybe the EC has more of the elite players.
He’s getting shelled vs elites though he plays the second most on his team behind Sanheim. Still under 40% DFF this year. Last year he was at 43%.
NST has him as a 23:11 toi/g defenseman. That’s something.
2:55 on the PK
2nd power play unit
He’s only been over 1pt/60 once in the past 7 seasons including this one.
EW doesn’t like him much
Puck IQ says he plays tough comp but gets throttled
NST says he Pks and plays 23 minutes per game.
Cap is $6.75m for two more years (after his one).
He certainly doesn’t scream elite though he looks like a guy who could help. 25 y/o. 6’1. 201 lbs.
I don’t see any way we could make his contract fit under the cap. I don’t see Philly retaining salary over the next two years for him.
By PuckIQ he’s been 1st or 2nd in %eliteTOI for years (only looked back 4, but he was 1st or 2nd each year).
The PuckIQ results are super tough to trust with the tiny sample sizes. He’s 11GF-9GA vs elites even though his DFF% is under 40. His DFF%RC has been negative 3 of the last 4 years, but he’s also outscored elites in 3 of 4.
Pretty sure he’s a quality Dman, but yeah, no way to fit in a $6.75M contract in that I can see.
innercitysmytty
January 10, 2023 4:27 pm
Re: discussion earlier in the thread about the PK system the oilers use. Struds just did a good breakdown on the Gregor show regarding why the oilers (and per Struds effectively all teams at different levels of hockey) employ a 2-1-1 instead of a box. PP systems have changed with the employment of the bumper role making the box ineffective. It’s what I was getting at below but he does a better job of explaining if anyone wants to re-listen to his hit on Gregor.
Struds also breaks down the mistakes on the PK goals last night. It’s a good listen.
ammidst the doom and gloom there is a bright spark that is illuminating.
my boy broberg.
in the last 5 games 5v5.
#1 in expected goals against per 60 (1.78 ga per 60)
#1 in defensive zone starts per 60 (9.6 dzone starts/60 compared to kulak who is the last on the team with 3.87/60)
#1 goal share. 80% goal share.
He is real and he is developing into a top 4 dman before our eyes. This is going to be the second pairing for the next decade barring any stupidity by holland. (im not holding my breath). Holland needs to bring in a top 4 dman now to ensure broberg can continue growing without getting fed to the dogs.
winchester
January 10, 2023 3:34 pm
Give up on the team? Or the season?
If I as a fan want to see them go all in, play hard, ect, etc; but then what if I bail as soon as the going gets tough? That seems kind of hypocritical no? And you know what happens if everybody jumps ship? This blog goes quiet because nobody cares.
There is enough of a team here without a doubt. But also work to be done:
On the ice
By the coach
By the GM
If the work is done, the try is there, they still might fall short. Or run into a much better team. These things happen. But if the Oil underperform their talent level, continue on this poor path with no improvement on the ice, by the coach or by the GM, then yeah, I’ll be pissed, but wont quit.
If the Oilers lose McDavid without achieving any kind of success, it will be another decade of darkness. I’ll sit that one out.
Maybe the Oilers will go on a big run to end the year….but last season’s Oilers were top tenish in all the fancy stats. This year’s Oilers are close to bottom ten. The eye test tells the story as well. They are getting caved 5 on 5. Kane will likely help a bit, but its getting to the point where they need a talent injection to turn the tide and Holland seems unwilling/unable to make it happen.
The 3rd and 4th lines (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge off) have be good for the last 20+ games.
Over 50% shots, goals, xGoal, scoring chance, HD chance.
Whatever they’re doing is not the problem.
Chelios is a Dinosaur
January 10, 2023 12:44 pm
The thing we are afraid of is not losing: we are Oiler fans.
What we are afraid of is losing McDavid. Let’s admit it. To be given a second shot at Gretzky and to have wasted it. To have the hockey world look at us and say, told you so. That is understandable but for me it is getting to be less and less motivating.
Of late I do the unthinkable and imagine the haul. If they win a couple cups the way Quebec did would you really be upset? Would you drink from it?
If I’m coming in as the GM that replaces Holland this summer I am thinking:
You don’t win a trade involving McDavid and you can kick the tar and feathering down the road a couple years when he walks or you get Treliving’ed.
Like Tom Cruise in the Firm the only way out is through. I.e: winning.
Does Leon get you a #1D and a 3C? Probably and you could unload cap in that deal. Does McDavid resign without his buddy? I don’t know. Does he resign with these results? Would you?
If there is a trade out there that brings a legit #1D to Edmonton (no I don’t think Nurse will ever live up to that contract), and the cost is Leon … then so be it.
The most likely think that will keep Connor in Edmonton is a Cup win – I think the whole schtick about being buddies with Connor is the reason why certain moves get made, is complete BS. What Connor cares most about at this stage of his career is his legacy … he would have no problem leaving all his buddies behind to go to another team for a better chance at winning a Cup.
BUT … is there a deal like that available for Leon? Who are the targets?
Yes the cap space would be nice, but there are no defenseman coming up as UFA who are worth spending that cap space on.
If Edmonton was ever going to consider it, the time is now and heading into this summer … the team’s not making the playoffs … they’re basically a bottom 10 team right now by point percentage. Trading Leon and tanking further could improve our chances at a top pick, with a potential replacement in Bedard available.
It would be the ultimate gamble. The Oilers as currently constructed seemed to have stalled out at a level that is below that of a contender. McDavid has 3 more years left on his contract … he’s gone for sure if they don’t win the cup. But they don’t win the Cup with this D corps.
It would be the kind of first day in prison move that only a new GM could make. Holland won’t because it would undermine his work to date. And Holland won’t get fired before this trade deadline. The next GM has to do it but also it has to be the first and biggest thing they do.
I can see Detroit maybe – with Larkin set to test UFA, trading for Leon makes some sense. Larkin, Seider for Leon. If Larkin doesn’t sign, then you get 8.5 million in cap space, which with the current tight cap, is worth more than a 1st round pick.
NYR deal: Lafreniere, K-Andre Miller and Dallas’ first … nice in theory, but NYR does not have the cap space to absorb Leon’s 8.5 million cap hit.
Ottawa: Sanderson, Batherson or Norris + prospect for Leon
NJ: L. Hughes or Nemec, Holtz or Mercer and a first.
Buffalo: with Tage Thompson, I don’t see them trading Dahlin or Power for Leon
LA: this would hurt but they could put together a hell of a package: Byfield, Clarke + other prospects.
Trading for Seider is the only deal that does not feel like we are ‘rebuilding’
None of those deals are even close to enough value for the second leading scorer in the league, that’s on a value deal. Trading Leon right now while he’s likely playing injured should be a non-starter. If you actually miss the playoffs this year, then maybe it’s something you consider, but only if you’re sure he’s not going to re-sign.
You cant know the unknowable, but then you state what Connor is thinking. He would have no problem leaving his team? I must disagree just based on how a hockey players mind is wired.
Its fun to shoot the sh*t, but tank and hope for Bedard? Holy crap.
I’d only trade Drai if the team I’m trading to can accommodate both Nurse & Soupy as well… If we’re sending out a stud like Drai, I’d prefer we could flush the bad money as well, even if that trade would require it be a ‘master stroke’.
I don’t think there is any team in the league, other than Zona, who could accommodate that much cap space. Nevermind the fact the Nurse has a NMC and Soup has a limited NTC.
Oh, I’m well aware it would be nearly impossible…
That’s kind of the point. (unless we can fix the other massive issues, trading Drai is kind of pointless IMO).
I assume you said that a time or three last January as well.
hopeoil
January 10, 2023 12:41 pm
So the Oilers play Seattle, come roaring out to a 2 goal lead and proceed to take their foot off the gas and get shwacked.
Woodcroft gets visibly frustrated, the Oilers have a players only meeting and come out and hammer the NYI, one of the best games of the season.
they then follow it up with a stinker against Colorado, completely dominated at 5v5. The team that swept them in the WCF. Follow it up with another stinker against the LA Kings, a team they are chasing for a playoff spot.
Not a fun 8 days or so to be an Oilers fan.
.
Chelios is a Dinosaur
January 10, 2023 12:32 pm
I think Edmonton wins that game last night most nights they outplayed LA 5 on 5 and normally win the special teams battle. It was an odd one.
They tend to come out strong after being written off so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Anaheim SJ and Vegas and make it a successful trip. But I get it. It would be points but they would be damnable points, wins that give no indication of sustain. I too am surprised we remain here, again.
They are not out of it yet and calls to circle the wagons and retain picks are insanity. This team has a G and D problem. G is G and has only ever had to be average. It will regress there. So really we have a D problem. We also have a GM. Do we have a GM problem? We will find out. Picks and prospects for Chychrun. Or similar. A top 4 D makes all the other D better, slotted correctly. Get two.
Kesselring has been out sick for the better part of two weeks.
I think Kesslering is ahead of Deharnais as far as potential and ceiling goes but he’s still fairly raw and I think the AHL remains the proper place for him. If an Oilers’ fan thinks Nurse can be a bit of a rover out there, wait until he/see sees Kesselring….
As far as “style of d-man”, well, Deharnais plays a type of game that may be best suited to what the team needs including PK being likely his top attribute.
knighttown
January 10, 2023 11:33 am
The thing that’s concerning isn’t just that we’re in 10th, it’s that, with Seattle and LA’s recent runs, the teams that are damned near “home and cooled” are teams no one expected to be way out in front. In fact, Minnesota is the only team that finished ahead of Edmonton that’s in a “locked in” playoff spot and most picked them to regress due to their massive dead cap space.
Dallas was a wild card last year…now uncatchable.
Vegas and Winnipeg missed the playoffs…uncatchable.
LA finished behind us and should still be rebuilding…uncatchable.
Seattle is an exapansion team…up by 5 points with 3 games in hand and red hot with 5 in a row on their litmus test road trip. Close to uncatchable.
That’s six teams that are either already in or getting close and NONE were expected to be.
So we’ve got 5 teams fighting for the two wild card spots and who are they? Last years murderer’s row.
Colorado might be the best team of the past decade and were decimated with injuries. They probably have the second and third best players on the planet. See ya.
So now 4 teams fighting for one wild card spot.
Division champs Calgary who have retooled and have understandably struggled with so much change. Would anyone be shocked if they won 6 in a row with their favorable schedule? 6-2-2 in their last 10.
105 point St. Louis took Colorado to game 7. They’ve got injury issues too but they won’t fold. 5-3-2.
Perennial wild card Nashville who are being carried by this year’s Vezina nominee. 7-1-2 in their last 10.
So even if we play well it just take one of these fantastic teams to take off and we’re toast.
The narrative that “don’t worry this is a good second half team” needs to die. This is a very dangerous time for your Edmonton Oilers
Ive seen a few posts bandying about the idea that the Oilers have this switch they play on flipping after the halfway mark. If they can’t flip that switch in those games?
(More or less – I still think SEA and LA are possibly catchable, but yeah, it’s a tough road.)
I’ve been cautiously optimistic they would turn it around: Kane will return and Campbell has to regress to the mean. But it’s getting late.
And this franchise has a long history of being less than the sum of its parts, even after McDavid arrived. It seems that there’s still something in the water.
Its a wet and groggy day in LA (sunshine state my ass 😉 ) and I’m sure there are more than a few Oilers stewing over last night. Time to Rewind – From Dec 1 to this time last year our Oilers lost six straight, won two and went to lose another seven straight their PK went five, and then eight straight allowing a goal against and I think the PP dropped into the mid-teens efficiency for about 20 games in there as well (Nuge injury). There were a bunch of COVID postponed games that brought out the nadir something fierce. Things were pretty darn dire last year. And then they started rolling, dispatching Pacific Division teams, playoff teams and eventual Cup winners along the way. They added Kane, Kulak, a semi-healthy Smith and Woody, the rest came from within the room. I know there’s only a handful of posters who aren’t yet convinced its all dead and over – Cowboy Bill, ArmchairGM and sometimes Reja, but lets see what happens in the next three weeks. There’s a lotta schedule left to harvest a whole lotta points. After the Kraken deflation I suggested the next three games were toss ups and we shouldn’t worry too much about the outcome. Even the Vegas game, not super duper critical. Its the ANA and SJ games and what comes after that. Strength of schedule is a factor. I don’t think it should be underestimated either. Seattle and L.A. have a few intense game sets coming up and LA doesn’t really play a shutemdown lockemdown style. The Oilers get two cracks at each of them again. Things can swing, nothing is set in stone. Its why they play the games. I liked the emotion and anger in the 3rd. I like pissed off. Bouchard/Broberg coming around is really good. Keep them together and let them play. That’s your pairing for the next decade. Yamo is starting to roll a bit, McLeod had his legs and hands going last night. Holloway is getting better. Adding Kane back in a couple of weeks is adding a 30 goal scorer to a team scoring at a healthy clip. Can Soup get a few W’s while Stu is dealing with more important things? Can he recover for for this push? Here’s hoping.
The Oilers are not a playoff team – I’ve been saying this for over a month, and I stand by it. They just don’t have a good enough D corps to prevent goals at 5v5 and on the PK. The young guys like McLeod, Yamo, JP, Bouchard, Holloway … not a single one of these guys has taken a leap forward this year. The goaltending is mediocre and is not capable of stealing games.
Last season around this time, the D corps had sustained significant injuries, requiring the Oilers to suit up a bunch of AHL quality D-men. The really concerning part is that the D-corps has been pretty healthy, but the Oilers have gone through the same swoon that they did year.
The Oilers are lottery team … trading this year’s first round pick would be sheer folly. Like Florida trading their first this year for Chiarot at last year’s deadline bad, except that they won the President trophy last year when they made that deal.
It wasn’t just the first half of last year that Campbell was good.
In 2018-19, Campbell was .928 with 15.2 GSAA.
In 2020-21, Campbell was .921 with 7.9 GSAA.
He had a track record.
Don’t get me wrong; I strongly wanted Kuemper rather than Campbell. Kuemper is currently .920 and 11.6 GSAA, so I feel vindicated.
But Holland still had a right to expect Campbell to be decent. It was a decent bet. And I don’t recall many others advocating for Mike Smith or for someone other than Campbell/Kuemper. (Matt Murray? Ville Husso? Adin Hill? John Gibson? I guess a few wanted Alexandar Georgiev.)
Goalies are voodoo. Jake Allen, Thatcher Demko, and even Jacob Markstrom are also voodooing really hard. But Campbell is doing it at a really inopportune time for us.
Last edited 1 year ago by Lewis Grant
Tarkus
January 10, 2023 11:15 am
Jake Chiasson has been dealt from Brandon to Saskatoon:
If you’re gonna be around S’toon this weekend, you can watch the Blades host Schaefer and the Birds of Thunder at 7 p.m. Rosthern time.
OriginalPouzar
January 10, 2023 11:11 am
Use winning percentage, because teams have played an uneven number of games. So, in winning percentage Edmonton is No. 10, with St. Louis a win (game in hand) from tying the Oilers.
Just a nitpick – there is points percentage and winning percentage and they aren’t the same.
The Oilers are .538 points percentage and .500 winning percentage.
Either/or, the point remains, its the right way to measure and the Oilers are out of the playoff picture (both before and after last night’s game).
I had high hopes for this California road trip. But I forgot about the Californian officiating.
We’ve seen it before, they don’t even try to hide the fact their intend is to affect the outcome of the game. It was as if the Kings knew something that the Oilers didn’t. Give LA credit their special teams dominated, they also managed to block 22 Oiler shots, while the Oil only blocked 9. Unusually, the PP couldn’t cash in, went 0 for six, The Kings, four for seven. What? Since when does Edmonton out play any team 5 on 5? What’s up with that? This game somehow was a complete reversal of character for these teams, I did enjoy the Oilers physicality. But somehow, as if it was by design, it fell into the hands of the Kings.
I have a bad feeling about this Californian road trip to say the least. This is perplexing.
In 2 games this year, the Kings have outshot the Oilers 70-54 & also outblocked them 51-17. Usually it’s the team yielding the most shots that also have the most blocks, but no.
51-17, a 3:1 ratio.
Bag of Pucks
January 10, 2023 11:03 am
Further to my last post, consider the Bruins a team led by a perennial Selke winner. Is it possible that a defensively responsible leader like Bergeron makes the entire team more willing to buy into that approach? Conversely, does an Art Ross leader influence everyone to join the track meet and think offense first?
I’m more convinced than ever that you build a winning team with a rock-solid blueline. The Carolina model, essentially.
Good D drive possession and make the job easy for forwards who spend most of their time on the attacking side of the ice.
The last time Edmonton was in a Cup Final, they had the best All around Defenseman in the NHL.
Also, note that Carolina took a hard pass on Dougie Hamilton @ $9 Mil per season. If I am correct, they lost him for nothing, but of course, gained the Cap Space by not signing him.
Interesting thought. Stevie Y, Crosby, Toews, MacKinnon all managed to buy into the complete 200 ft game and ended up winning the cup. They all realized, or were forced to realize that ‘their’ game was costing the team success.
Worth noting that all of those players won cups with the teams that drafted them, and that all of them (to this point at least) spent their whole career with the drafting team.
I mean it might be partly about buy-in due to Bergeron’s leadership, but I think it is mostly due to Beregon’s ability to go out there against the best comp in the league and completely shut them down.
Bergeron and Marchand are 1st and 2nd for Bruins forwards in GA/60. Those guys make it the game easier for everyone else down the pecking order.
Conversely, Draisaitl is worst on the Oilers in GA/60 besides Brad Malone. His coasting off the ice when the puck is headed the wrong direction makes it harder on the bottom six players to achieve a positive goal differential.
On most strong teams the leaders are also the most effective players
Not so with the duo this year. I thought Woody would roll things and get everyone playing the system, and give it time to sink in, based on his talk last season
He hasn’t, and the unfortunate part of that is the standard coach’s default still isn’t winning enough
If the roster quality is still so weak the coaches have no options well Holland has had long enough to fix that. The cap sucks but it does for every good team. It’s still possible to do things, I read the sports pages
I think compared to other teams there is enough to play better than this. Unfortunately this is learning curve for rookie head coach first full season
X and O’s are fine, but really it’s more about leading at this level. Being good at motivating the group and individuals to work well and together
I don’t feel the coaches have done well enough at this. So many gloomy under confident players. They look so depressed now. It’s not all coaches or all players leadership: it’s a partnership, that apparently isn’t a success, so far
Pretendergast
January 10, 2023 11:01 am
WRT not being efficient with the cap, it’s hard to fault any team with top heavy getting screwed by the pandemic (TOR, EDM) and the Boston’s of the group extending their competitive window. GM’s are paid to get creative, I get that, that’s just much easier to do when none of your players make 10M+ a season.
To look at it practically, I would suggest that the Nurse deal would have been signed earlier with some extra room pre pan. I heard the Oil wanted 6.5M he wanted 7.5M before Seth ruined everything. Chiarelli screwed the pooch with Rusty’s deal that squeezed Nurse. It’s a cascade of events and mismanagement that takes years to come to a head.
**Note, To be clear, I’m not giving Kenny a pass. I know every team deals with this, but Kenny inherited those 2 and the cap cards landed as they did. I think his free agent signings have been very positive (love Hyman), and his draft record is decent. He fixed an obvious mistake with Kass.
I agree we need an 06 deadline stat. Get me Samsonov, Peca, Spacek, and Pronger. EZPZ.
Kenny also freed up a bunch of cap space for Chicago by taking Keith’s entire capn hit, & sent them Seth’s brother as further enticement. Timing was awful, made worse by Chicago annoucning details of the Jones extension several days before they were legally allowed to negotiate with him & resetting the market in the process. Still sour about that; Oilers shoulda filed a grievance.
Fine – he’s a bottom tier first pairing LHD being over paid by 1.5 million. I stand by my opinion that the Oilers defense is not good enough from top to bottom to be a Cup contender in the NHL. Every single defenseman is slotted too high in the order.
This is further compounded by goaltending that does not steal games for us and the worst PK in the league.
The Oilers are a lottery team this season. Only a desperate fool trades this year’s first round pick to shore up this mess.
I’ve been thinking a lot about that presser earlier this season when McDavid was asked about his defensive play and backchecking again. He was clearly exasperated with this line of questioning, essentially giving it an eye roll and an immediate, “This again…”
To be fair to Connor, the entire fanbase was impressed with his elevated two way play in the playoffs, so why are we here yet again with this core? There’s a few possibilities.
1) One possibility is they commit to playing more defensively until it doesn’t work in their mind. A leaky D or bad tending costs them some goals and mentally they think, “we have to ourscore the opposition to win and our backend is crap, so cheating for offense gives us our best chance despite what Woodcroft demands.”
2) The team is constructed of offense first players with no championship pedigree winning with a defensive system. Scoring is what they’re best at, what they’ve always done, and what their natural instincts lead them towards. Plus it’s fun!
3) The team is clique. You’ve got the power play stars. The defense. The Gs. The muckers and wannabes. The vets hanging on. And none of them are pulling in the same direction. This certainly helps to explain the lack of 5v5 chemistry and inconsistent system play and structure.
4) Some of the players are selfish. They’re here for a good time not a long time and that good time is best expressed through personal points production and individual hardware. Sacrifice for team success can wait until they’re playing with their chosen team not the one that drafted them.
Thoughts? Is it one of these things more than the others OR is it all of them OR none of the above?
The one thing we know is it’s a recurring issue that has outlived numerous coaches. The issue isn’t the messaging or the messenger. This team has struggled with defensive system play for years and years. Occam’s Razor suggests this is an issue with the core not the multitude of coaches, many of whom had defensive system success elsewhere.
As Im on a tear this morning and clearly not doing my own job worth a dam, ….
Yes, 1 and 2, the roster balance is off in my opinion. They drafted high, they went for skill, no harm in this. When they play defense they really are not great at it. No apologies.
Point 3 is all teams. But on ice involves the coach, he must drag everybody into the game. Establish systems, stick with the process. Woodcroft was golden with developing players, getting buy in. They were here before. Derrick Ryan stated it, straight to the point, the bottom 6 was uninvolved. Woody solved that. Now hes created it again.
Point 4 I don’t see it. The highest potential candidate for this may have been Pujujarvi. Then hes sitting, sitting, sitting, and decides hes just going to go out and slam somebody. Brilliant. He knows he cant fight, but if first to drop his gloves. I have to admire that.
The Avalanche and Lightning were loaded on D when winning the Cup. I think the Oilers current D is what’s holding them back. A strong Defense fixes many things that ail.
I think it’s 1 and the coaches reinforce it instead of the opposite
YYCOil
January 10, 2023 10:27 am
Do the game officials have different views than the TV audience when they are reviewing a play? They must … we can guess that the puck was in Campbells glove across the line – but nobody saw it definitely. The call on the ice was no goal, we saw some of Campbells closed glove in the goal and some out of the goal leaving the viewer with a question.
I thought NHL officials had to SEE an infraction to call the penalty or overturn the ruling on the ice?
I still recall that time that Milan Lucic, then a King, slewfooted Laurent Brossoit while skating throught the blue paint. LB went down & stayed down while the Kings threatened, the shooter put it upstairs & upon review the ruling was Brossoit had time to get up. Arguably an accidntal slewfoot, but there never was a second LB could scramble to his feet without further compromising his already compromised position,
An obvious miscarriage of justice to any fair-minded person. Which apparently does not include NHL officials in California cities.
My take on the good goal call was that you could see the puck in his webbing (Jack kept calling it a blob) and the webbing was inside the net. I think it was the right call.
Buddy
January 10, 2023 10:26 am
I’m a bit worried about the time those movements are taking, Mary. You might want to check with a doctor on that.
winchester
January 10, 2023 10:25 am
Hyman takes a fight. Its not his game nor does he give a shit but he takes the fight.
Afterwards Kempe is gliding up behind him chirping him. See you can’t have that. That’s when you have to go at Kempe and crosscheck him, challenge him and make him back down. He can’t be allowed to do that. Make him back down, or answer the bell as Hyman just did.
These are all small, tiny interactions that seemingly are unimportant, but they pay off down the road, and are extremely important. This is not for Connor to do, but supporting cast.
once mistake Chia made was dumping picks in what we knew to be a DEEP draft (2015).
same thing is being said about the 2023 draft. So If Edmonton is not in a solid position, I think KH has to keep his 2023 picks, especially the 1st rounder ….
Next year when the Cap situation is more flexible, KH (assuming he’s still here) can dump 2024 or 2025 picks …
That mentality leads to an endless cycle of mediocrity.
The Oilers are long past the point where they should be thinking another middling first round pick will propel them to a cup.
With the contract status of the top of the lineup players, the window to win is 3 years at best so there is little sense in punting on one of those years.
A player picked with their first round pick this year would be a very valuable asset at next year’s deadline. If the Oiler are 50/50 for a playoff spot come March, no deadline rental deals will be making the team in to a Stanley Cup contender. If the window is 3 years, well, that includes next season – bullets fired this season cannot be used next season.
it also does not make sense to burn a 1st rounder just for the sake of doing so …
innercitysmytty
January 10, 2023 10:24 am
I’m in
jtblack
January 10, 2023 10:20 am
Game 6 & 7 McDavid against L.A. last year. you say it’s the best hockey you have ever seen. I agree it was up there. You have vast more experience over the years. What others standout?
for me – Messier in 1990 Conference Finals vs. Hawks stands out.
Summarizing!
Schaefer and Wanner each picked up an aPPle in surprising losses. Schaefer also had a team-high 5 SOG.
Gino Reda saying that Dumba is available, and that the Oilers have inquired about him.
The Dumba trade is a hard one to fathom for the Oilers. The Wild aren’t going to pull the chute on the season, they’re 3rd in the central.
Michael Russo says they want an asset that can help this year.
Then there’s the $6m cap hit.
EW has 18-16-26 1 year, 3 year is 24-20-54
PuckIQ has him 4rth in CTOI against elites
He plays 21:11 per night overall.
He’s only been over 1 point per hour at 5v5 3 of the past 9 seasons (including this one).
2 min per night on the PK. No PP time.
He’s 2nd in total toi on the wild without playing any PP time.
He plays the most at 5v5 and sort of 2nd unit PK guy.
That’s a bit of a weird mix or results and minutes. Sort of like a poor man’s Darnell Nurse.
He seems like a guy who could help. Is he worth the price though and how much does he move the needle?
He’s a 1st rounder from the dreaded 2012 draft.
Gotta collect them all.
That might get Carter Savoie healthy scratched – egregious poor defensive zone play leading to the, likely, winning goal against with under 2 to go.
Not great at updates.
Philp pots a rebound goal, goes 5 hole to tie it at 3. Lavoie gets into a tilt and feeds the Wrangler player quite a few good shots before the refs step in. Nice to see.
Lavoie took a bad penalty in the 2nd and was benched for the rest of the period. He had the fight early in the 3rd after throwing a big hit on the forecheck. Lavoie landed 3-4 big shots in the title. Holty was fired up!
I wonder if Nurse would waive his NMC for a trade to the States, and live closer to his sister. This Provorov thing intrigues me … Nurse is a Torts kind of defenseman. Donovan McNabb’s nephew in Philly is something that would appease the masses there. I’m ready for the 9.25 million dollar starfish to move on.
Fletcher might be just crazy enough to do that.
It’s intriguing right?
Darnell’s never going to live that contract down in Edmonton … he’s going to be Horcoff’d out of town eventually.
Provorov is on the outs big time in Philly … he’s ready for a move.
Nurse is the better defenseman, but that contract is just awful. Provorov is younger and cheaper, and like Nurse plays big minutes against tough competition, and like Nurse is more of a top end 2nd pairing/bottom-end 1st pairing LHD. I would love to find a way to have both on the Oilers, but that’s not realistic in a cap world unless the Flyers retain some dollars and Oilers send a potential lottery pick to them.
Philly is the one team that throws cap efficiency out the door (to their own detriment, but at least they’re entertaining if you’re into morbid curiosity). There is 2.5 million dollar cap savings, and Provorov’s contract ends when Leon’s does.
Waive JP, or trade Yamo. Give Phili our first rounder plus a prospect for Provorov with 50% retained. He’s been regressing the last 3 seasons and it sounds like both parties want to move on, so I question how much he’d cost.
Nurse-Ceci
Prov-Barrie
Kulak-Bouch
Broberg
I’ve mentioned trying to move Darnell McNabb to Philly a few times on this blog already. If you could do it stratight up for Provorov and use the cap savings +++to fit Chychrun in as well, we are a much better team.
Provorov-Bouchard
Chycrun-Ceci
Kulak-Barrie
Broberg
Chances of this happening? Between zero and nil….
More likely to move Barrie + 1st + to Minny for Dumba
Kraken win their 6th straight 4-3 over Buffalo.
Now only 4 points out of 1st place with 2 games in hand on Vegas.
My bandwagon team!
Watching Vancouver blow 3 goal leads has been fun this season
They could say the same thing about the oilers..albeit 2 goal leads 🤪
It’s going to fun watching both these teams stumble and bumble their way to a lottery ticket for Connor Bedard. I can definitely see Edmonton ending the season with better odds.
Kambietz take a pass from Mckegg, enters the zone, no danger, snaps one from the side-boards/hashmarks – Holty raving about the shot but there is no chance that should go in…… past glove of Wolf.
It was quite a nice shot.
It was – it was also from the boards with no screen.
True. His stats say he’s 6 foot but Wolf seems shorter than that.
Schaefer saw Wanner get an aPPle and decided he wanted one too as Seattle gets on the board in period 2.
The puck finds its way to him at the top of the left circle, and he sends a no-look pass to the Draisaitl spot for the one-timer:
https://twitter.com/TheWHL/status/1613001730433900544
Broberg is a year younger than Bear was when Tippett said knock knock.
Broberg – Bouchard are both good, smart players and they are playing *together*. Cohesive. Love it. No wild card shit, just solid plays, winning battles, nice outlets, rinse and repeat.
I don’t think there needs to be a fear, per se, of elevating them too quickly. My fear is letting the playoffs slip away or worse, using a first rounder to acquire an inferior D that will block/separate them.
Agree fully – for me, the only way I think a CHycrhun acquisition, for example, makes sense is if Kulak is moved (not necessarily in the ARI trade) and Broberg is NOT in the deal (nor Bouchard). That’s required for cap structuring and Broberg is there for injury cover and, well, when CHycrhun prices himself out for his next contract, Broberg should be a legit 2LD (or not more).
AHL all-stars will be named tomorrow – I presume Kesslering and that’s about it from the Condors – maybe Griffith but “meh”…..
Bailey with a shot from distance – top goalie Wolf gives out a rebound and, after a bit of a scramble, first pairing d-man Alex Peters buries it. 1-0 Condors.
Wranglers tied it up on a similar play – shot from distance, rebound (there was a screen), goal
Wanner procures an early aPPle as his shot-pass is neatly tipped to open the scoring:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MJWARRIORS/status/1612996917679751169/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1612996917679751169¤tTweetUser=MJWARRIORS
Condors with a quick strike 2 on 0 and no shot on net (Kaldis with a bad pass almost behind Hambln).
Next shift Bailey in on a quick strike break but the d-man dives to get his stick on the shot – in any event, two great looks early is not the norm against the Wranglers – good looks but no shots.
Holt says that Kesselring could possibly play on Friday – that would be great – it seems like a good couple weeks he’s been out ill.
Holy hell is the Dome absolutely empty compared to Sunday (which also had the “Family Skate” following the game.
I’d say 500 people are here? Tops
the lower bowl was full on Sunday (some seats empty but mostly full) and a bit of the upper blow – just a few rows in a couple of sections.
Feel like we need to be ready for the
Nick Bonino for a 4th Rd pick acquisition.
Talking points on deal
Size. Vet. Winner. PK. Gritensity
Then Kane back
Talking point
Like making a trade for a top 2 winger
Unicorn . Size. Scores. Physical.
Then Crickets……
If the Oilers aren’t in a playoff position come March, I would hope that no more than a 4th rounder is sent out.
Although sometimes its tough to tell when sitting so low to the ice at the arena (site lines aren’t great to all areas of the ice, etc.), I thought that Lavoie was completely ineffective on Sunday and hope that is just a one game blip – if he’s off his heater, that’s one thing but he can’t just disappear for the better part of 6 weeks.
Didn’t see Bourgault making an impact on Sunday either.
Of course, the Wranglers are a top team in the league.
I don’t get to watch the Condors unfortunately. What do you make of Colin Chaulks less than ringing endorsements on Bourgault on Bob’s show every week.
He hasn’t done that in a while and I don’t think they were all that negative – talked about inconsistency with making the right play. What I didn’t/don’t agree with is his using mistakes by rookies as a weapon, healthy scratching kids and, with Bourgault, cratering his ice and offensive opportunities – unless he was making the same mistake over and over.
No Demers. No Kesserlring. No Deharnais:
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
·
18m
Ollie Rodrigue (1 GA in 3 of last 5) gets his 18th appearance of the year.
Greg McKegg’s bag finally arrived so he’s in for McPhee. Brubacher slots in on D as the Condors have only six healthy D left.
Talk to ya in 15 #Condorstown!
Last Thursday my gas boiler stopped working and so for the past 5 days and nights have been camping at home like it’s the Last of the Mohicans.
The first 2-3 days it’s fun lol but 4-5 days/nights in and the fun goes away.
Oilers have not drafted well for a long time.How can a team like Seattle have a better record than the Oilers. Something is not working.
Seattle have been able to start everything with a clean slate –
No Boys on the Bus gaming the fans sums everything up.
Seattle has one of the most underrated winners of all time in Ron Francis. We better hope Hollands kid Brad has more forward thinking then himself are else we are back in the dark for another decade.
Taking Steve Kelly instead of listening to the mob chants for hometown farm boy Shane Doan was the biggest miss. We sure could use a forward with some nasty in his game right about now.
Seattle continues to load up acquiring Dylan Guenther for like 10 assets, seriously. I’m sure this is contingent on him being sent down by Arizona which could very well be the case prior to him hitting 40 games on their roster……
The Kraken have only played 39 games. I presume the games played when he was loaned out to Team Canada don’t count – he must not have been on the roster for those games, at a technical matter…..
Kraken or Thunderbirds?
T-Birds.
By my count, that’s now seven players on their roster who were in the WJHC.
CAN: Milic, Schaefer, Allan, Korchinski, Dach, Guenther (if he is sent down)
FIN: Lambert
McDavid hockey is losing hockey. He has confused being a hero with being a leader.
Yzerman had that problem too, until Scotty Bowman entered his life.
Every coach has descended into letting Connor be the hero instead of molding him into a leader.
The thing is one can be a leader and a hero, but being a leader comes first.
Would that have fixed the PK last night?
The Coach is the leader Good teams take on the identity of the Coach. What is our mystery man Woody’s identity?
Good coaches lead their teams to take on the identity of the coach.
Oilers coaches have to navigate through a front office political management landscape that rivals Zelensky’s.
I don’t believe for a second that anyone in Oilers’ management is dictating how Woodcroft coaches. I have no idea what evidence one might have to show meddling….
No kidding, right?
The players play the games. The coach is a facilitator. If is frustrating that none of the coaches who have been here have helped Connor become a leader, and instead depend on him to be a hero.
Connor is a cheat sheet for the Coach. Why roll 4 lines and get everyone involved when I can triple shift Connor Why form a line that I can match-up when I can throw Connor on the ice. Why have someone else on the ice besides Leon and Connor when the other team pulls their Goalie.
You don’t “triple shift” McDavid because, well, its not working – he’s plus 2 at 5 on 5, TWO!
Woody needs to place more responsibilities on other players besides Connor and Leon.
Of course but this is NOT what your previous post alluded implied – in fact, the opposite.
Apparently Provorov on the block. Not sure if it’s true, but that’s an ideal fit on the left D. Maybe there’s a hockey trade in there somewhere…
I wonder if Philly would be interested in Bouchard? He’s a sublime passer, but holy hell, does his lack of intensity irritate me.
Bouchard, 1st, roster player (Foegele/Yamamoto/Puljujarvi – better yet, take 2!)
for
Provorov (retained), Tippett
Nurse-Ceci
Provorov-Barrie
Broberg-Kulak (playing his off side)
Adjust the right side in the off season.
It appears to be true.
https://theathletic.com/4078538/2023/01/10/nhl-trade-rumblings-oilers-karlsson-provorov/?source=user_shared_article
I don’t watch Provorov much being that he plays for Philly.
Evolving Wild’s model doesn’t particularly like him. You have to give him a bump on their scale for being on a bad team since their model doesn’t often correct enough.
PuckIQ is weird for Eastern Conference teams. They have like 6 guys playing at or near 30% CTOI vs elites. Some other teams in the East have that too. Maybe the EC has more of the elite players.
He’s getting shelled vs elites though he plays the second most on his team behind Sanheim. Still under 40% DFF this year. Last year he was at 43%.
NST has him as a 23:11 toi/g defenseman. That’s something.
EW doesn’t like him much
Puck IQ says he plays tough comp but gets throttled
NST says he Pks and plays 23 minutes per game.
Cap is $6.75m for two more years (after his one).
He certainly doesn’t scream elite though he looks like a guy who could help. 25 y/o. 6’1. 201 lbs.
I don’t see any way we could make his contract fit under the cap. I don’t see Philly retaining salary over the next two years for him.
Agree his contract won’t fit.
By PuckIQ he’s been 1st or 2nd in %eliteTOI for years (only looked back 4, but he was 1st or 2nd each year).
The PuckIQ results are super tough to trust with the tiny sample sizes. He’s 11GF-9GA vs elites even though his DFF% is under 40. His DFF%RC has been negative 3 of the last 4 years, but he’s also outscored elites in 3 of 4.
Pretty sure he’s a quality Dman, but yeah, no way to fit in a $6.75M contract in that I can see.
Re: discussion earlier in the thread about the PK system the oilers use. Struds just did a good breakdown on the Gregor show regarding why the oilers (and per Struds effectively all teams at different levels of hockey) employ a 2-1-1 instead of a box. PP systems have changed with the employment of the bumper role making the box ineffective. It’s what I was getting at below but he does a better job of explaining if anyone wants to re-listen to his hit on Gregor.
Struds also breaks down the mistakes on the PK goals last night. It’s a good listen.
With all due respect to Struds, I believe that I have a more nuanced analysis of our PK.
Here:
Yeah that sums it up pretty nicely.
ammidst the doom and gloom there is a bright spark that is illuminating.
my boy broberg.
in the last 5 games 5v5.
#1 in expected goals against per 60 (1.78 ga per 60)
#1 in defensive zone starts per 60 (9.6 dzone starts/60 compared to kulak who is the last on the team with 3.87/60)
#1 goal share. 80% goal share.
He is real and he is developing into a top 4 dman before our eyes. This is going to be the second pairing for the next decade barring any stupidity by holland. (im not holding my breath). Holland needs to bring in a top 4 dman now to ensure broberg can continue growing without getting fed to the dogs.
Give up on the team? Or the season?
If I as a fan want to see them go all in, play hard, ect, etc; but then what if I bail as soon as the going gets tough? That seems kind of hypocritical no? And you know what happens if everybody jumps ship? This blog goes quiet because nobody cares.
There is enough of a team here without a doubt. But also work to be done:
On the ice
By the coach
By the GM
If the work is done, the try is there, they still might fall short. Or run into a much better team. These things happen. But if the Oil underperform their talent level, continue on this poor path with no improvement on the ice, by the coach or by the GM, then yeah, I’ll be pissed, but wont quit.
If the Oilers lose McDavid without achieving any kind of success, it will be another decade of darkness. I’ll sit that one out.
Maybe the Oilers will go on a big run to end the year….but last season’s Oilers were top tenish in all the fancy stats. This year’s Oilers are close to bottom ten. The eye test tells the story as well. They are getting caved 5 on 5. Kane will likely help a bit, but its getting to the point where they need a talent injection to turn the tide and Holland seems unwilling/unable to make it happen.
You’re kinda making that up.
They’re 15th worst in SF% but better than that in every other metric. They’re 10th (best) in HD scoring chances.
They’ve been an average team, which is a big disappointment, but they’re not close to bottom 10 in anything.
Delete
What’s with the dump and chase for lines 3 and 4?
They are fast, but not physical enough or strong enough to be imposing on the forecheck.
Light, quick and hand-sy does not bode well for “get pucks in deep” game as of late.
They are fast but not skilled enough hence if it is not dumped in it becomes a turnover at the blue line.
The 3rd and 4th lines (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge off) have be good for the last 20+ games.
Over 50% shots, goals, xGoal, scoring chance, HD chance.
Whatever they’re doing is not the problem.
The thing we are afraid of is not losing: we are Oiler fans.
What we are afraid of is losing McDavid. Let’s admit it. To be given a second shot at Gretzky and to have wasted it. To have the hockey world look at us and say, told you so. That is understandable but for me it is getting to be less and less motivating.
Of late I do the unthinkable and imagine the haul. If they win a couple cups the way Quebec did would you really be upset? Would you drink from it?
If I’m coming in as the GM that replaces Holland this summer I am thinking:
You don’t win a trade involving McDavid and you can kick the tar and feathering down the road a couple years when he walks or you get Treliving’ed.
Like Tom Cruise in the Firm the only way out is through. I.e: winning.
Does Leon get you a #1D and a 3C? Probably and you could unload cap in that deal. Does McDavid resign without his buddy? I don’t know. Does he resign with these results? Would you?
You can’t know the unknowable.
If there is a trade out there that brings a legit #1D to Edmonton (no I don’t think Nurse will ever live up to that contract), and the cost is Leon … then so be it.
The most likely think that will keep Connor in Edmonton is a Cup win – I think the whole schtick about being buddies with Connor is the reason why certain moves get made, is complete BS. What Connor cares most about at this stage of his career is his legacy … he would have no problem leaving all his buddies behind to go to another team for a better chance at winning a Cup.
BUT … is there a deal like that available for Leon? Who are the targets?
Yes the cap space would be nice, but there are no defenseman coming up as UFA who are worth spending that cap space on.
If Edmonton was ever going to consider it, the time is now and heading into this summer … the team’s not making the playoffs … they’re basically a bottom 10 team right now by point percentage. Trading Leon and tanking further could improve our chances at a top pick, with a potential replacement in Bedard available.
It would be the ultimate gamble. The Oilers as currently constructed seemed to have stalled out at a level that is below that of a contender. McDavid has 3 more years left on his contract … he’s gone for sure if they don’t win the cup. But they don’t win the Cup with this D corps.
It would be the kind of first day in prison move that only a new GM could make. Holland won’t because it would undermine his work to date. And Holland won’t get fired before this trade deadline. The next GM has to do it but also it has to be the first and biggest thing they do.
LT, for very good reasons, has suggested Eric Tulsky should be the next GM of the Oilers.
This is exactly the kind of move I can see him executing.
But who are the targets?
I can see Detroit maybe – with Larkin set to test UFA, trading for Leon makes some sense. Larkin, Seider for Leon. If Larkin doesn’t sign, then you get 8.5 million in cap space, which with the current tight cap, is worth more than a 1st round pick.
NYR deal: Lafreniere, K-Andre Miller and Dallas’ first … nice in theory, but NYR does not have the cap space to absorb Leon’s 8.5 million cap hit.
Ottawa: Sanderson, Batherson or Norris + prospect for Leon
NJ: L. Hughes or Nemec, Holtz or Mercer and a first.
Buffalo: with Tage Thompson, I don’t see them trading Dahlin or Power for Leon
LA: this would hurt but they could put together a hell of a package: Byfield, Clarke + other prospects.
Trading for Seider is the only deal that does not feel like we are ‘rebuilding’
Parako or Faulk in St. Louis
None of those deals are even close to enough value for the second leading scorer in the league, that’s on a value deal. Trading Leon right now while he’s likely playing injured should be a non-starter. If you actually miss the playoffs this year, then maybe it’s something you consider, but only if you’re sure he’s not going to re-sign.
How old was Dougie Hamilton when the Hurricanes walked away?
I would take a close look at Anaheim who have a bounty of blue chip young D on the way and are shy at centre.
Along with a young D, they might be willing to part with Cam Fowler who would fill a hole at a reasonable cap hit for a few years.
And yet Seider is having an Evan Bouchard season (considerably worse actually).
innercitysmitty is right, none of these deals is close to reasonable value for the Oilers. Just awful.
Seider just had a 4 assist night.
But yeah, trading Leon is easy to say, but when you start to game out who we could possibly trade him for, it looks less encouraging.
Right, and Bouchard was +3 with 2 assists his last time out.
It’s not actually impossible to get fair value in a deal like that, but it’s damn close.
Hold the phone Diablo,
You cant know the unknowable, but then you state what Connor is thinking. He would have no problem leaving his team? I must disagree just based on how a hockey players mind is wired.
Its fun to shoot the sh*t, but tank and hope for Bedard? Holy crap.
I’d only trade Drai if the team I’m trading to can accommodate both Nurse & Soupy as well… If we’re sending out a stud like Drai, I’d prefer we could flush the bad money as well, even if that trade would require it be a ‘master stroke’.
I don’t think there is any team in the league, other than Zona, who could accommodate that much cap space. Nevermind the fact the Nurse has a NMC and Soup has a limited NTC.
Oh, I’m well aware it would be nearly impossible…
That’s kind of the point. (unless we can fix the other massive issues, trading Drai is kind of pointless IMO).
Fortune favours the bold.
Were those Chiarelli’s worlds right before the 2015 draft?
Trading Connor, in my opinion would be the biggest failure in oilers history. Regardless of the outcome.
So he walks after not winning a cup?
Great asset management.
Something about last night…
That sure felt to me like the tipping point in our playoff aspirations.
SOFT SCHEDULE …
Starting January 25th Edmonton gets a 7 game stretch to play (league rank).
#31
#32
#25
#25
#25
#27
#25
After that stretch you can determine if they are gonna make the playoffs.
These “SOFT” Schedules hurt like hell!
I assume you said that a time or three last January as well.
So the Oilers play Seattle, come roaring out to a 2 goal lead and proceed to take their foot off the gas and get shwacked.
Woodcroft gets visibly frustrated, the Oilers have a players only meeting and come out and hammer the NYI, one of the best games of the season.
they then follow it up with a stinker against Colorado, completely dominated at 5v5. The team that swept them in the WCF. Follow it up with another stinker against the LA Kings, a team they are chasing for a playoff spot.
Not a fun 8 days or so to be an Oilers fan.
.
I think Edmonton wins that game last night most nights they outplayed LA 5 on 5 and normally win the special teams battle. It was an odd one.
They tend to come out strong after being written off so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Anaheim SJ and Vegas and make it a successful trip. But I get it. It would be points but they would be damnable points, wins that give no indication of sustain. I too am surprised we remain here, again.
They are not out of it yet and calls to circle the wagons and retain picks are insanity. This team has a G and D problem. G is G and has only ever had to be average. It will regress there. So really we have a D problem. We also have a GM. Do we have a GM problem? We will find out. Picks and prospects for Chychrun. Or similar. A top 4 D makes all the other D better, slotted correctly. Get two.
$9.25M could have gotten two pretty good D.
But they wouldn’t be 1st line D quality
Neither is the guy getting paid 9.25 million
Can you name 64 d-man in the NHL ahead of him?
I don’t know how to say this…
Its not like anyone knows me as a particularly rational hockey fan…
Ever since I decided on a 30 game season culminating vs the Bruins in Boston, have been able to stop worrying about the team and their problems.
They started so well vs Seattle away, then won another gane in good fashion that I don’t seem to remember, then there were the three various losses.
The season even after Boston will have some traction left, no matter what hopefully.
Perplexing comment from MrSlushy last night
”didn’t an octopus once kick ass”
It was predicting World Cup games for one of them I think
Not sure if Octopi eat conchs but I’m keeping an eye out, if I have one
I really thought Kesserling was higher on the depth chart that Desharnais.
But K is 22 and D is 26.
This feels like a “last chance Texaco” audition
I loved his quick interview describing not only his emotion and his reaction to being called up, but also the emotion of his coach. Nice moment.
Kesselring has been out sick for the better part of two weeks.
I think Kesslering is ahead of Deharnais as far as potential and ceiling goes but he’s still fairly raw and I think the AHL remains the proper place for him. If an Oilers’ fan thinks Nurse can be a bit of a rover out there, wait until he/see sees Kesselring….
As far as “style of d-man”, well, Deharnais plays a type of game that may be best suited to what the team needs including PK being likely his top attribute.
The thing that’s concerning isn’t just that we’re in 10th, it’s that, with Seattle and LA’s recent runs, the teams that are damned near “home and cooled” are teams no one expected to be way out in front. In fact, Minnesota is the only team that finished ahead of Edmonton that’s in a “locked in” playoff spot and most picked them to regress due to their massive dead cap space.
Dallas was a wild card last year…now uncatchable.
Vegas and Winnipeg missed the playoffs…uncatchable.
LA finished behind us and should still be rebuilding…uncatchable.
Seattle is an exapansion team…up by 5 points with 3 games in hand and red hot with 5 in a row on their litmus test road trip. Close to uncatchable.
That’s six teams that are either already in or getting close and NONE were expected to be.
So we’ve got 5 teams fighting for the two wild card spots and who are they? Last years murderer’s row.
Colorado might be the best team of the past decade and were decimated with injuries. They probably have the second and third best players on the planet. See ya.
So now 4 teams fighting for one wild card spot.
Division champs Calgary who have retooled and have understandably struggled with so much change. Would anyone be shocked if they won 6 in a row with their favorable schedule? 6-2-2 in their last 10.
105 point St. Louis took Colorado to game 7. They’ve got injury issues too but they won’t fold. 5-3-2.
Perennial wild card Nashville who are being carried by this year’s Vezina nominee. 7-1-2 in their last 10.
So even if we play well it just take one of these fantastic teams to take off and we’re toast.
The narrative that “don’t worry this is a good second half team” needs to die. This is a very dangerous time for your Edmonton Oilers
Math aside, the Oilers are a lottery team. That’s the hard cold reality.
What concerns me is how both Seattle & Los Angeles smoked Edmonton in the last week. Neither game was close.
Yeah, a concerning pair of games for sure.
Ive seen a few posts bandying about the idea that the Oilers have this switch they play on flipping after the halfway mark. If they can’t flip that switch in those games?
Don’t hold your breathe.
This.
(More or less – I still think SEA and LA are possibly catchable, but yeah, it’s a tough road.)
I’ve been cautiously optimistic they would turn it around: Kane will return and Campbell has to regress to the mean. But it’s getting late.
And this franchise has a long history of being less than the sum of its parts, even after McDavid arrived. It seems that there’s still something in the water.
Bob Nicholson’s turds are in the water.
Its a wet and groggy day in LA (sunshine state my ass 😉 ) and I’m sure there are more than a few Oilers stewing over last night.
Time to Rewind – From Dec 1 to this time last year our Oilers lost six straight, won two and went to lose another seven straight their PK went five, and then eight straight allowing a goal against and I think the PP dropped into the mid-teens efficiency for about 20 games in there as well (Nuge injury). There were a bunch of COVID postponed games that brought out the nadir something fierce. Things were pretty darn dire last year.
And then they started rolling, dispatching Pacific Division teams, playoff teams and eventual Cup winners along the way. They added Kane, Kulak, a semi-healthy Smith and Woody, the rest came from within the room.
I know there’s only a handful of posters who aren’t yet convinced its all dead and over – Cowboy Bill, ArmchairGM and sometimes Reja, but lets see what happens in the next three weeks. There’s a lotta schedule left to harvest a whole lotta points. After the Kraken deflation I suggested the next three games were toss ups and we shouldn’t worry too much about the outcome. Even the Vegas game, not super duper critical. Its the ANA and SJ games and what comes after that. Strength of schedule is a factor. I
don’t think it should be underestimated either. Seattle and L.A. have a few intense game sets coming up and LA doesn’t really play a shutemdown lockemdown style. The Oilers get two cracks at each of them again. Things can swing, nothing is set in stone. Its why they play the games.
I liked the emotion and anger in the 3rd. I like pissed off.
Bouchard/Broberg coming around is really good. Keep them together and let them play. That’s your pairing for the next decade. Yamo is starting to roll a bit, McLeod had his legs and hands going last night. Holloway is getting better. Adding Kane back in a couple of weeks is adding a 30 goal scorer to a team scoring at a healthy clip.
Can Soup get a few W’s while Stu is dealing with more important things? Can he recover for for this push? Here’s hoping.
why does Campbell have to regress? he was poor the last half of last year. maybe this is who Soup is?
The Oilers are not a playoff team – I’ve been saying this for over a month, and I stand by it. They just don’t have a good enough D corps to prevent goals at 5v5 and on the PK. The young guys like McLeod, Yamo, JP, Bouchard, Holloway … not a single one of these guys has taken a leap forward this year. The goaltending is mediocre and is not capable of stealing games.
Last season around this time, the D corps had sustained significant injuries, requiring the Oilers to suit up a bunch of AHL quality D-men. The really concerning part is that the D-corps has been pretty healthy, but the Oilers have gone through the same swoon that they did year.
The Oilers are lottery team … trading this year’s first round pick would be sheer folly. Like Florida trading their first this year for Chiarot at last year’s deadline bad, except that they won the President trophy last year when they made that deal.
It wasn’t just the first half of last year that Campbell was good.
In 2018-19, Campbell was .928 with 15.2 GSAA.
In 2020-21, Campbell was .921 with 7.9 GSAA.
He had a track record.
Don’t get me wrong; I strongly wanted Kuemper rather than Campbell. Kuemper is currently .920 and 11.6 GSAA, so I feel vindicated.
But Holland still had a right to expect Campbell to be decent. It was a decent bet. And I don’t recall many others advocating for Mike Smith or for someone other than Campbell/Kuemper. (Matt Murray? Ville Husso? Adin Hill? John Gibson? I guess a few wanted Alexandar Georgiev.)
Goalies are voodoo. Jake Allen, Thatcher Demko, and even Jacob Markstrom are also voodooing really hard. But Campbell is doing it at a really inopportune time for us.
Jake Chiasson has been dealt from Brandon to Saskatoon:
https://wheatkings.com/article/trade-wheat-kings-deal-chiasson-to-saskatoon
As a result, only Schaefer and Wanner will be playing tonight. Sassytoon’s next game is on the morrow.
The number of trades in the CHL this year is crazy. What the heck is going on?
Lots of good teams in the Dub this year: they make up half of the just-updated CHL Top 10.
With Saskatoon (ranked 5th), picking up Chiasson, the Oilers now have three prospects on said list, along with Schaefer (#2) and Petrov (#9).
Well hell, I guess I need to see a few games in saskatoon.
If you’re gonna be around S’toon this weekend, you can watch the Blades host Schaefer and the Birds of Thunder at 7 p.m. Rosthern time.
Use winning percentage, because teams have played an uneven number of games. So, in winning percentage Edmonton is No. 10, with St. Louis a win (game in hand) from tying the Oilers.
Just a nitpick – there is points percentage and winning percentage and they aren’t the same.
The Oilers are .538 points percentage and .500 winning percentage.
Either/or, the point remains, its the right way to measure and the Oilers are out of the playoff picture (both before and after last night’s game).
This is a nit worth picking. BIG difference.
I had high hopes for this California road trip. But I forgot about the Californian officiating.
We’ve seen it before, they don’t even try to hide the fact their intend is to affect the outcome of the game. It was as if the Kings knew something that the Oilers didn’t. Give LA credit their special teams dominated, they also managed to block 22 Oiler shots, while the Oil only blocked 9. Unusually, the PP couldn’t cash in, went 0 for six, The Kings, four for seven. What? Since when does Edmonton out play any team 5 on 5? What’s up with that? This game somehow was a complete reversal of character for these teams, I did enjoy the Oilers physicality. But somehow, as if it was by design, it fell into the hands of the Kings.
I have a bad feeling about this Californian road trip to say the least. This is perplexing.
In 2 games this year, the Kings have outshot the Oilers 70-54 & also outblocked them 51-17. Usually it’s the team yielding the most shots that also have the most blocks, but no.
51-17, a 3:1 ratio.
Further to my last post, consider the Bruins a team led by a perennial Selke winner. Is it possible that a defensively responsible leader like Bergeron makes the entire team more willing to buy into that approach? Conversely, does an Art Ross leader influence everyone to join the track meet and think offense first?
I’m more convinced than ever that you build a winning team with a rock-solid blueline. The Carolina model, essentially.
Good D drive possession and make the job easy for forwards who spend most of their time on the attacking side of the ice.
This. I agree with this.
The last time Edmonton was in a Cup Final, they had the best All around Defenseman in the NHL.
Also, note that Carolina took a hard pass on Dougie Hamilton @ $9 Mil per season. If I am correct, they lost him for nothing, but of course, gained the Cap Space by not signing him.
Hamilton is another Subban. Extremely overrated.
They likely already knew they could trade for Burns when they let Hamilton walk. Plan B was different but as good or better than Plan A.
Interesting thought. Stevie Y, Crosby, Toews, MacKinnon all managed to buy into the complete 200 ft game and ended up winning the cup. They all realized, or were forced to realize that ‘their’ game was costing the team success.
McDavid & Co have no excuses for not buying in.
Stevie Y didn’t win anything until Lidstrom arrived.
Crosby – Letang
Toews – Keith
MacKinnon – Makar
McDavid – Nurse
One of these things is not like the others.
It was actually Bowman, who threatened to trade Yzerman to the Senators.
Worth noting that all of those players won cups with the teams that drafted them, and that all of them (to this point at least) spent their whole career with the drafting team.
I mean it might be partly about buy-in due to Bergeron’s leadership, but I think it is mostly due to Beregon’s ability to go out there against the best comp in the league and completely shut them down.
Bergeron and Marchand are 1st and 2nd for Bruins forwards in GA/60. Those guys make it the game easier for everyone else down the pecking order.
Conversely, Draisaitl is worst on the Oilers in GA/60 besides Brad Malone. His coasting off the ice when the puck is headed the wrong direction makes it harder on the bottom six players to achieve a positive goal differential.
On most strong teams the leaders are also the most effective players
Not so with the duo this year. I thought Woody would roll things and get everyone playing the system, and give it time to sink in, based on his talk last season
He hasn’t, and the unfortunate part of that is the standard coach’s default still isn’t winning enough
If the roster quality is still so weak the coaches have no options well Holland has had long enough to fix that. The cap sucks but it does for every good team. It’s still possible to do things, I read the sports pages
I think compared to other teams there is enough to play better than this. Unfortunately this is learning curve for rookie head coach first full season
X and O’s are fine, but really it’s more about leading at this level. Being good at motivating the group and individuals to work well and together
I don’t feel the coaches have done well enough at this. So many gloomy under confident players. They look so depressed now. It’s not all coaches or all players leadership: it’s a partnership, that apparently isn’t a success, so far
WRT not being efficient with the cap, it’s hard to fault any team with top heavy getting screwed by the pandemic (TOR, EDM) and the Boston’s of the group extending their competitive window. GM’s are paid to get creative, I get that, that’s just much easier to do when none of your players make 10M+ a season.
To look at it practically, I would suggest that the Nurse deal would have been signed earlier with some extra room pre pan. I heard the Oil wanted 6.5M he wanted 7.5M before Seth ruined everything. Chiarelli screwed the pooch with Rusty’s deal that squeezed Nurse. It’s a cascade of events and mismanagement that takes years to come to a head.
**Note, To be clear, I’m not giving Kenny a pass. I know every team deals with this, but Kenny inherited those 2 and the cap cards landed as they did. I think his free agent signings have been very positive (love Hyman), and his draft record is decent. He fixed an obvious mistake with Kass.
I agree we need an 06 deadline stat. Get me Samsonov, Peca, Spacek, and Pronger. EZPZ.
Kenny has been here 3.5 years now???
the Roster has 2 players on it from trades. Kulak and Foegle.
is it fair to say Kenny hasn’t done enough on the trade front?
I posted those trade numbers and picks remaining the other day
The other teams on the list are more aggressive filling needs and all or most got far better players than Kenny in some deals
He gets worked in significant deals and contracts. Perhaps he’s become gunshy
Kenny also freed up a bunch of cap space for Chicago by taking Keith’s entire capn hit, & sent them Seth’s brother as further enticement. Timing was awful, made worse by Chicago annoucning details of the Jones extension several days before they were legally allowed to negotiate with him & resetting the market in the process. Still sour about that; Oilers shoulda filed a grievance.
No they should’ve signed Nurse first, then traded for Keith. There was no rush to trade for Keith … he was only going to agree to go to one team only.
If Nurse wouldn’t sign then they should’ve dealt him.
His contract is an albatross – first pairing $$ for a 2nd pairing defenseman.
2nd pairing d-man? There are 64 d-man that could play top pair ahead of him?
His cap hit is inflated by apx 1.5MM but he’s objectively a top pairing d-man and likely a low end 1D (i.e. top 32).
Fine – he’s a bottom tier first pairing LHD being over paid by 1.5 million. I stand by my opinion that the Oilers defense is not good enough from top to bottom to be a Cup contender in the NHL. Every single defenseman is slotted too high in the order.
This is further compounded by goaltending that does not steal games for us and the worst PK in the league.
The Oilers are a lottery team this season. Only a desperate fool trades this year’s first round pick to shore up this mess.
I think that was poorly handled by such an experienced fella. Really poorly
He has a history of letting players dictate to him. I feel he’s sentimental or something. What Datsyuk did to the Wings was awful, he let him
Respect is necessary, so is protecting the interests of the team
Solid
Is telecommunting the same as watching teletubbies? If it is, I am out.
Is there any teleconflating? If not, I am out.
I’ve been thinking a lot about that presser earlier this season when McDavid was asked about his defensive play and backchecking again. He was clearly exasperated with this line of questioning, essentially giving it an eye roll and an immediate, “This again…”
To be fair to Connor, the entire fanbase was impressed with his elevated two way play in the playoffs, so why are we here yet again with this core? There’s a few possibilities.
1) One possibility is they commit to playing more defensively until it doesn’t work in their mind. A leaky D or bad tending costs them some goals and mentally they think, “we have to ourscore the opposition to win and our backend is crap, so cheating for offense gives us our best chance despite what Woodcroft demands.”
2) The team is constructed of offense first players with no championship pedigree winning with a defensive system. Scoring is what they’re best at, what they’ve always done, and what their natural instincts lead them towards. Plus it’s fun!
3) The team is clique. You’ve got the power play stars. The defense. The Gs. The muckers and wannabes. The vets hanging on. And none of them are pulling in the same direction. This certainly helps to explain the lack of 5v5 chemistry and inconsistent system play and structure.
4) Some of the players are selfish. They’re here for a good time not a long time and that good time is best expressed through personal points production and individual hardware. Sacrifice for team success can wait until they’re playing with their chosen team not the one that drafted them.
Thoughts? Is it one of these things more than the others OR is it all of them OR none of the above?
The one thing we know is it’s a recurring issue that has outlived numerous coaches. The issue isn’t the messaging or the messenger. This team has struggled with defensive system play for years and years. Occam’s Razor suggests this is an issue with the core not the multitude of coaches, many of whom had defensive system success elsewhere.
As Im on a tear this morning and clearly not doing my own job worth a dam, ….
Yes, 1 and 2, the roster balance is off in my opinion. They drafted high, they went for skill, no harm in this. When they play defense they really are not great at it. No apologies.
Point 3 is all teams. But on ice involves the coach, he must drag everybody into the game. Establish systems, stick with the process. Woodcroft was golden with developing players, getting buy in. They were here before. Derrick Ryan stated it, straight to the point, the bottom 6 was uninvolved. Woody solved that. Now hes created it again.
Point 4 I don’t see it. The highest potential candidate for this may have been Pujujarvi. Then hes sitting, sitting, sitting, and decides hes just going to go out and slam somebody. Brilliant. He knows he cant fight, but if first to drop his gloves. I have to admire that.
2017 Playoff Run Edmonton had a D made up of:
NURSE
KLEFBOM
SEKERA
LARSSON
All Legit Top 4 D.
Now they have:
NURSE
CECI
BARRIE
BOUCHARD
Seems like only 1 Legit Top 4 D.
The Avalanche and Lightning were loaded on D when winning the Cup. I think the Oilers current D is what’s holding them back. A strong Defense fixes many things that ail.
Last year, a better run they had:
Nurse
Ceci
Kieth
Bouchard
Not inspiring but they made it work as far as possible.
Do you think one good, solid, top 4 addition combined with strong step forward from Bouchard and Broberg might be enough?
well sure. But I think that is asking a lot. That’s 3 things you need to break the right way.
could it happen? sure. ———- Will it? not so sure.
The top 4 in 2017 was:
Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Russell
I think you’re right
1 top pairing D and 6 3rd pair at current levels
No team plays well built like that
Kenny bet on development and it still may play out, if Bro can stay healthy
Bro and Bouch playing well for their level would make it not bad. One of them pushing Ceci down would make it good enough
I think it’s 1 and the coaches reinforce it instead of the opposite
Do the game officials have different views than the TV audience when they are reviewing a play? They must … we can guess that the puck was in Campbells glove across the line – but nobody saw it definitely. The call on the ice was no goal, we saw some of Campbells closed glove in the goal and some out of the goal leaving the viewer with a question.
I thought NHL officials had to SEE an infraction to call the penalty or overturn the ruling on the ice?
In California all bets are off.
I still recall that time that Milan Lucic, then a King, slewfooted Laurent Brossoit while skating throught the blue paint. LB went down & stayed down while the Kings threatened, the shooter put it upstairs & upon review the ruling was Brossoit had time to get up. Arguably an accidntal slewfoot, but there never was a second LB could scramble to his feet without further compromising his already compromised position,
An obvious miscarriage of justice to any fair-minded person. Which apparently does not include NHL officials in California cities.
My take on the good goal call was that you could see the puck in his webbing (Jack kept calling it a blob) and the webbing was inside the net. I think it was the right call.
I’m a bit worried about the time those movements are taking, Mary. You might want to check with a doctor on that.
Hyman takes a fight. Its not his game nor does he give a shit but he takes the fight.
Afterwards Kempe is gliding up behind him chirping him. See you can’t have that. That’s when you have to go at Kempe and crosscheck him, challenge him and make him back down. He can’t be allowed to do that. Make him back down, or answer the bell as Hyman just did.
These are all small, tiny interactions that seemingly are unimportant, but they pay off down the road, and are extremely important. This is not for Connor to do, but supporting cast.
Sather would of had Reaves in Oilers silks years ago.
How do you know Kempe was chirping him? He may have offered to get him a beer after the game.
Maybe wanted an autographed book for his little one?
Holland’s MO is to asses the team near the deadline and, if they are in a solid position, a playoff position, look to add for a playoff run.
If they don’t start winning games and pass a few teams, upgrading via rental will essentially be off the table, and should be off the table.
Bullets like the first round pick remain bullets next year if not fired.
What you’re suggesting is watching the ship burn down and the save the water for the next fire.
What you’re not coming to terms with is that this fire is the one that there’s no coming back from.
The Oilers midst well relocate and change sports, they’re cooked.
None of this is actually true.
I agree OP.
once mistake Chia made was dumping picks in what we knew to be a DEEP draft (2015).
same thing is being said about the 2023 draft. So If Edmonton is not in a solid position, I think KH has to keep his 2023 picks, especially the 1st rounder ….
Next year when the Cap situation is more flexible, KH (assuming he’s still here) can dump 2024 or 2025 picks …
#ThisIsUs
That mentality leads to an endless cycle of mediocrity.
The Oilers are long past the point where they should be thinking another middling first round pick will propel them to a cup.
With the contract status of the top of the lineup players, the window to win is 3 years at best so there is little sense in punting on one of those years.
Exactly.
A player picked with their first round pick this year would be a very valuable asset at next year’s deadline. If the Oiler are 50/50 for a playoff spot come March, no deadline rental deals will be making the team in to a Stanley Cup contender. If the window is 3 years, well, that includes next season – bullets fired this season cannot be used next season.
it also does not make sense to burn a 1st rounder just for the sake of doing so …
I’m in
Game 6 & 7 McDavid against L.A. last year. you say it’s the best hockey you have ever seen. I agree it was up there. You have vast more experience over the years. What others standout?
for me – Messier in 1990 Conference Finals vs. Hawks stands out.
others?