Game 50 2022-23: Blackhawks at Oilers

The maturation of this generation of Edmonton Oilers continues tonight against the ghost of Stanley Cups past. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews arrive in the Alberta Capital after having taken a bite out of the Flames on Thursday night.

The Pacific Division standings are tight today, after two nights of bizarre results involving teams ahead of the Oilers. Specifically the Seattle Kraken and Vegas Golden Knights are bleeding points as the All-Star break draws close. A win tonight would benefit the Oilers and give fans a glimmer of hope over the week between now and the resumption of the schedule.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: Oilers rookies Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway arriving right on time
• New DNB: Oilers trade target: Scouting Blue Jackets defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov
• Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
• New DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman subscriber Q&A
• Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ 2022 NHL Draft class gains momentum
• DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
• Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
• Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
• DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
• DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
• Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
• Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

• At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
• On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
• At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
• January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
• January actual result: 7-2-2, 16 points in 11 games
• December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
• November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
• October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2022-23: 27-18-4, 58 points in 49 games

If the Oilers win tonight, and make the playoffs, the January run will have a lot to do with it. A win would mean 60 points in 50 games, a 98-point pace. That point total would be close to a guaranteed playoff berth.

The Oilers are in the good spot in the Pacific. LAK lead the division with 62 points in 51 games, a win tonight puts the Oilers two points back with a game in hand. Considering strength of schedule, goal differential and other factors, Edmonton should be able to catch them in February.

Seattle Kraken are the class of the group, leading the division in point percentage. Edmonton is three points back, Seattle with the game in hand. The Oilers can catch the Kraken, but they better pack a lunch because it’s going to take them all day.

Vegas is three points ahead of Edmonton, with the Oilers owning a game in hand. A win tonight means entering the All-Star break a single point behind Vegreville. The Calgary Flames are a point behind, the Oilers with the GIH. I like the situation Edmonton is in tonight, a win versus Chicago would be a terrific way to enter the break.

THE MATURATION

The Oilers turned the puck over a couple dozen times in the game against Columbus, that’s reckless and unacceptable. The best players on the team are going to have giveaways, that’s due to handling the puck so much. Without looking, I would estimate that 97, 29 and Zach Hyman lead the team in giveaways per-60 at five-on-five. Here’s the top 10:

1. Leon Draisaitl 3.71
2. Ryan McLeod 3.54
3. Evander Kane 2.75
4. Connor McDavid 2.44
5. Devin Shore 2.02
6. Dylan Holloway 1.84
7. Mattias Janmark 1.67
8. Warren Foegele 1.31
9. Klim Kostin 1.23
10. Kailer Yamamoto 1.12

Draisaitl is No. 4 in the NHL (David Pastrnak, Evgeni Malkin, Artemi Panarin) so that’s some great company, but you’d like to see that reduced if you are the coaching staff. At the other end of the scale, Jesse Puljujarvi is No. 19 in fewest giveaways (.86) and the Nuge No. 24 (.93). Devin Shore can’t have that number, not for what he brings. Dylan Holloway? He’s a rookie and the number isn’t terrible. Ryan McLeod needs to reduce his total too, but he gets more touches than the other youngsters, so I think that’s learning curve. Oh. Zach Hyman? A pristine .97-per-60.

POSSIBLE LINEUP

• Holloway-McDavid-Hyman
• Kane-Draisaitl-Ryan
• Kostin-RNH-Janmark
• Foegele-McLeod-Puljujarvi
• Nurse-Ceci
• Kulak-Barrie
• Broberg-Bouchard
• Jack Campbell (Stuart Skinner)

Huzzah! Dylan Holloway on a line with McDavid and Hyman. Eureka! Music! Overture, curtains, lights! The two men have been together just 38 minutes at five-on-five this season, 2-2 goals but 57 percent shot share and 63 percent expected-goals share. McDavid-Hyman have been money all year, I think that pairing with hold fast even when Evander Kane is rocking 100 percent. Here are 97’s totals with various linemates:

• McDavid-Hyman: 467 mins, 36-22 goals, 62 pct
• McDavid-Yamamoto: 111 mins, 5-4 goals, 56 pct
• McDavid-Draisaitl: 334 mins, 21-19 goals, 53 pct
• McDavid-Nuge: 153 mins, 10-9 goals, 53 pct
• McDavid-Holloway: 38 mins, 2-2 goals, 50 pct
• McDavid-Puljujarvi: 183 mins, 5-9 goals, 36 pct
• McDavid-Kostin: 41 mins, 1-2 goals, 33 pct
• McDavid-Kane: 105 mins, 2-6 goals, 25 pct
• McDavid-Janmark: 41 mins, 0-1 goals
• McDavid-McLeod: 16 mins, 0-1 goals
• McDavid-Foegele: 34 mins, 0-2 goals
• McDavid-Hamblin: 3 mins, 0-2 goals

I count several strong options for the captain, but after the deadline, when the Oilers run the centers three, Holloway might come in handy. I’d still run Hyman-97-Puljujarvi. JP has struggled with the captain this season, but since Hyman arrived the trio has played 311 minutes, are 15-10 goals and 63 percent expected goals.

WHEN TWO WORLDS COLLIDE

There are two things that are rolling around on the Al Gore that I want to touch on briefly today. Since it’s Tabernac Saturday, I think we can talk about difficult subjects.

I keep reading the Oilers need to go all-in, trade Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and everyone not in their prime. If Edmonton had several players NHL-ready, I can see it. However, how many men on their entry deals do you see filling significant roles next season? I count Broberg and Holloway. Maybe Xavier Bourgault makes the grade, or Raphael Lavoie signs a second contract for value and emerges, but this team isn’t flush with aces in the minors. I understand the idea of all-in, and Broberg isn’t Jakob Chychrun, but part of a team’s heart comes in those value deals. I can’t see a good reason to trade either man.

The other item surrounds some of the rumoured targets by Edmonton. Some big contracts are apparently under consideration, and I wonder if this is the beginning of a restructuring of the team’s foundation. Let’s take Erik Karlsson as an example. He has been mentioned in connection with Edmonton.

Karlsson’s cap hit is $11.5M and his contract runs four more full seasons. It’s a headache. However, if the Oilers are considering a deal, perhaps the San Jose Sharks are willing to take on some of the cap over the duration of the deal. Let’s say Edmonton gets this player for $7.5 million AAV, and give up Tyson Barrie ($4.5 million times two) and Jesse Puljujarvi in the trade. That’s $7.5 million, so it satisfies the dollars in, dollars out situation Ken Holland finds himself in.

Next season, the team would be even more top heavy. I’m beginning to wonder about the heart of the order in Edmonton. Have the Oilers spoken in general terms to Leon Draisaitl’s management group? Is there a strong sense of the direction forward? In all of these cases, including straight UFA’s like Bo Horvat, there’s a financial shoe that would seemingly have to drop in order for the trade to make sense. That brings us to this question: What is Ken Holland contemplating?