On a night when the Oilers best players were their best players and then some, fans at Rogers Place saw a terrific game and then a piece of history as Matt Berlin made his NHL debut. I loved the story, had no idea he’d play in the game, but enjoyed the moment thoroughly. If the team isn’t going to play for 10 days, that was a solid parting gift.
In using the five seasons of AHL talent beginning in 2015-16, and using the other two western Canadian teams to compare, are the Oilers getting enough out of the Bakersfield Condors pipeline?https://t.co/J0QJd8OJwc
At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
Oilers in 2022-23: 28-18-4, 60 points in 50 games
Edmonton is in third place in the Pacific Division based on points percentage this morning, courtesy a strong January. My projection was close, but the Oilers added two points in losing just two regulation games. The two Bettmans this month could be important, this race is wild and crazy. The Oilers made up 10 points in the last 10 games on the Golden Knights by going 7-1-2, while VGK went 2-6-2. The Oilers +25 goal differential in all game states (via NHL.com) ranks No. 2 in the division behind the redoubtable Seattle Kraken.
SUMMARY
Mattias Janmark had two shots, two HDSC and drew a penalty. He had a takeaway and a giveaway. Oilers fans are pushing for him to move down the depth chart in favor of Dylan Holloway, but Janmark’s reliable play always has appeal for coaches.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two assists, one shot and has reached 60 points for the third time in his career. Someone asked me on twitter if this was the first time Nuge performed like a No. 1 overall, for me he has delivered at that level previously.
Klim Kostin had a nice turnaround game after three games that were vanilla. He had two shots, drew a penalty and delivered six hits. He was a pain in the ass for ‘Hawks defensemen all night and skated with abandon.
Evander Kane scored a goal, that’s six in 18 games and a 27-goal pace over a full season. Five shots, one HDSC, GV and TK, that could be an important goal because coming back from an injury like that one has to be difficult just from a confidence point of view. Kane is important to this team, and scoring is a big part of his game.
Leon Draisaitl went 1-2-3, three shots and two HDSC. Zero giveaways, one takeaway and won 12 of 20 in the dot. He was 3-0 goals five-on-five with Connor McDavid. If Ken Holland trades for Jonathan Toews, I can see the center depth chart as 97, 93, Toews and (apparently) Nick Bjugstadt. If the Oilers trade for those two men, the entire damn forward group will be centers! Not quite, but close! Leon has duplicated his breakout 2016-17 season, but he has done it in 34 fewer games.
Derek Ryan, like Mattias Janmark, is irritating some Oilers fans because he’s getting feature minutes. If you look at what he is doing in those minutes, I think you’ll be pleased. Last night he had three shots on goal, five HDSC, blocked a shot and won four of eight in the dot. Ryan isn’t a long-term solution there, but he’s contributing.
Dylan Holloway got six minutes with McDavid but didn’t really do much with it. Had two turnovers, the last one began the sortie that resulted in Chicago’s third goal. I’ll say what I said when he was drafted: He is going to play in the top nine forwards during his career, but I don’t know if he’s going to score enough to stay on a top skill line. Six minutes doesn’t prove anything, but in 44 minutes with 97 he has scored 1-1-2. That’s 2.72 points-60 at five-on-five. Well done to the coaching staff for giving him a look again. More please.
Connor McDavid went 1-2-3 with six shots and five HDSC. He could have had double the points, but 41-51-92 in 50 games is beyond electric in this era. Blocked three shots, got an assist on a Leon goal that didn’t count because referee. The man combines high speed with brilliant skill and unprecedented desire, and the result is something we simply have not seen before. Enjoy him. We won’t see his kind again.
Zach Hyman should be called Clockwork because his lines in the summary all look like last night: 1-2-3, three shots and three HDSC. It’s like clockwork. He joined Nuge in the 60-point club last night.
Ryan McLeod went 1-1-2, three shots, one HDSC, four hits and won seven of eight faceoffs. He has scored 8-7-15 in 35 games, that’s a 35-point pace. Hey, if you’re going out for breakfast with buddies and want them to pay, ask them to name the Oiler who ranks No. 5 among Oilers forwards in total points this year.
Jesse Puljujarvi had one shot, three HDSC, took a penalty. He played just shy of 11 minutes, but has been announcing his readiness for an increased role over the last several games. His time will come, or he’ll be traded. There’s too much talent for him to get 10:54 a night, even on a SC contender.
Darnell Nurse had an excellent game. Three assists, three shots, two HDSC, took a penalty, drew a penalty. He was a stalwart defensively, kicking several Chicago sorties to the curb and finishing 4-1 in five-on-five goals. He was 2-0 versus Patrick Kane in 11 minutes. A fine game by a fine player.
Cody Ceci had two shots and played a reliable game, it is notable that he played three fewer five-on-five minutes than Nurse. The presence of Vincent Desharnais is easing the load for these RH blue. Perhaps 11-7 will present itself down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Brett Kulak drew a penalty and engaged in a fantastic fight with Sam Lafferty. I’m not a blood thirsty sort, and do worry about these young men fighting and what it might mean to the rest of their lives, but that was entertaining, gotta say.
Tyson Barrie had two goals, four shots and one HDSC. He had one takeaway, six blocked shots (who does he think he is? Kris Russell?) and if we’re honest is full measure for his five-on-five goal share (35-30, 54 percent) this year. Barrie was an astute signing.
Philip Broberg had one giveaway, one takeaway and a blocked shot. He was 1-1 goals at five-on-five and is now 18-11 (62 percent) for the season. Most impressive, for me, is how he is now getting into and then getting out of trouble all by his lonesome. It shows great presence in real time, and maturity. Made one wobbly play early, but Campbell made a brilliant save.
Evan Bouchard had three shots and a takeaway, he made the right play on the GA but there were too many Chicagos for one man to handle. He is 13-5 (72 percent) five-on-five goal share in January.
Vincent Desharnais is the Steve Winwood of hockey: He plays brilliantly with everybody. One shot, giveaway, hit and blocked shot, calm seas with him on the ice (one HDSC against in 11:37 five-on-five). He is 5-2 goals at five-on-five through eight games. What a wonderful find.
Jack Campbell made a stellar early stop that seemed to settle the troops. Has 15 wins in 24 decisions. Owns a .915 SP since December 15.
Matt Berlin played 2:25, made a good save and has a wonderful memory he shared with all of us. If the Oilers are a team, and they certainly are, fans should take heart in the things they choose to celebrate. This was a grand moment.
DEVELOPING STORY
We’ll talk more about this tomorrow, but Bakersfield Condors forward Raphael Lavoie is pushing for a recall now. There isn’t a spot available, but the young man is 8-9-17 in his last 16 games. He could get himself traded!
I didn’t bother adding it up but those player cards showing oilers have what 30 million surplus value on current roster?
Definitely made me question what significance these valuations realistically have
Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Tarkus
January 30, 2023 7:52 am
What happened to Nora? She was sooooo wonderful. Did she get canned? Was she not meeting her sales target? What kind of company sets such unrealistic targets anyway? Oh man, I sure hope you don’t get fired too. But if you do, I know of a place where you can be your own non-public boss…
Munny 2.0
January 29, 2023 9:12 pm
Barrie played the left side three times last night in the third period. All with Desharnais on the ice.
Probably means kulak had a sore hand…did u see Lafferty’s face? Mouth, nose and eye were bloodied…I assume the nose and eye were damaged by the visor getting punched in…can’t feel too good on the knuckles
Could be I guess. Kulak kept playing a regular shift through the 3rd though. And his TOI ended up only 1.5 min shy of his season average even though he spent 5 min in the box and Barrie got some left side shifts. I didn’t see any indication of an injury either, did you?
I figured it was more likely getting Barrie some reps on the left side in case they need it down the line. Maybe also trying to get him the hat trick while also not disrupting Broberg-Bouchard and Desharnais’ ice time.
Kulak was scraped up and Barrie was in pursuit of a hat trick. Nothing more than that.
Munny 2.0
January 29, 2023 9:10 pm
Wonder how Hawks fans feel about S. Jones’s contract today…
OriginalPouzar
January 29, 2023 8:57 pm
Shore has been recalled from his conditioning stint.
I really don’t get this at all.
I’ve been posting all day about how great he’s been for the Condors, for the team and for the kids, in a short time. He’s been playing with Lavoie and Tulio and the line has been soooo good.
I was thinking that they may waive him and keep him there when his conditioning stint is up.
Its been like 8 days and he has six more days to go but he’s been re-called even through the Oil don’t play until Feb 7 and the Condors play Tues and Thurs.
Perhaps he Oilers feel Shore is entitled to the break that the rest of the NHL Oilers are getting. Perhaps Shore had made and cleared break plans with the Oilers beforehand.
While 13.8 doesn’t specifically speak to it, given the nature of the “conditioning loan”, I doubt they’d be able to send him back down pursuant to the section.
I would expect he’ll be on waivers and assigned (after learning) in due course though (although, after next Friday, the Condors have a week off themselves.
Condors play Tues, Thurs, Fri this week – would have liked that Lavoie/Shore/Tulio line to continues but, well, I have no say, lol.
No, we certainly have no say in those sorts of decisions.
I’m not sure the timeframe you’re thinking regarding ‘in due course’, but I’d note that until/unless Yamamoto is activated, or a trade to bring in salary is made, there is zero roster/cap pressure to waive/assign Shore.
He very well may not be waived and assigned unless necessary.
Bag of Pucks
January 29, 2023 8:24 pm
Eagles vs Chiefs should be a great Super Bowl.
It’s the classic fighter vs boxer matchup.
Chiefs under Reid do it with scheme, motion, deception, and execution. Eagles are physical on every snap. They impose their will with dominant lines and smashmouth football.
Eagles we’re on cruise control all game. Who ever controls the O line wins in my opinion. I’m surprised the Chiefs are 1-1/2 point favourites might even go up another point once the Mahomes and Kelce plus other injuries are healed up a bit. Chiefs are beat-up all over the place but Vegas and the betters love Mahomes. Eagles and their brotherly love Coach curb stomp the Chiefs 28-10. The Buc’s D coordinator showed the scheme on how to spy Mahomes.
Will be interesting to watch the line move over the next 2 weeks. Two passionate fanbases will have the bookies dancing to balance their exposure.
Looks like the early money is coming in on the Chiefs. Sharps typically bet early while the line is still soft. I think waiting a bit might be the play here though. Spread will be bigger than 1.5 by game day imo. Props tend to see the most action for SBs.
AsiaOil
January 29, 2023 8:18 pm
Lots to be happy about at the all-star break. Progress is being made.
We’ve broken in a large number of young guys and rookies (which has cost points) but will pay cap and results dividends later this year and next season. Skinner, Broberg, Bouch, Holloway, Vinny and even Niemo. That’s a lot but the cap requires it and we could afford to do it in the first 50 games.
The use of Vinny is genius. Our RHD was unbalanced with two offensive guys (Barrie and Bouch) plus a two way (Ceci). Mainstream thinking would have forced a trade of Bouch or Barrie for a more defensive guy, or use a LHD in the top 6, but the coaches addressed the issue by adding a big, nasty #7 defense-first RHD and running an 11-7 lineup. No surprise we are suddenly winning a lot. Balance, it’s a thing, but you don’t alway have to achieve it in a conventional way.
Same thing with the forwards. Add Kane and Kostin to balance the toughness/skill balance and the swagger emerges. I’d add another big winger at the deadline, Okposo was my favorite, but BUF is rolling and no way they trade their captain now. David Perron would also be nice but his contract runs through next year and that’s a problem unless Fog and Yamo go the other way. Maata as LHD insurance also works for me.
When we do make a trade, the guys who need to be moved are wingers with larger contracts that are still in place next year (Yamo and Foegle). JP can stay as his contract is done this summer and we can deal him, let him walk, or sign him to a smaller salary. Our deadline deals need to be cap neutral hockey trades that help us with next summer as much as this spring.
Enjoy the break.
Bag of Pucks
January 29, 2023 8:04 pm
Wow. Bengals commit seppuku with an astonishingly dumb penalty to put the Chiefs in field goal range.
Situational football. It’s a thing.
Munny 2.0
January 29, 2023 8:00 pm
Game changing penalty
Tarkus
January 29, 2023 7:45 pm
Summarizing!
The Battalion were shut out, so Petrov was held off the scoresheet and has now fallen to 3rd in OHL scoring, three back of 1st.
Prospecting takes a break until Tuesday.
Bag of Pucks
January 29, 2023 7:17 pm
Burrow vs Mahomes is Ali vs Frazier, Borg vs McEnroe, McDavid vs MacKinnon, etc.
I know little about him but only go by numbers and his numbers in 3 AHL seasons seem pedestrian and I’m not sure what he would have on, say, Ralph Lavoie, except for those 7 games of NHL experience and being year older.
The Oilers have 4-5 prospects in Bakersfield with “third line upside”, no?
Laukko played in the NHL this year (7GP, 1G-1A-2P-2PIM); Lavoie did not.
Brings likeable work ethic and attitude to the ice, with his outstanding acceleration and straight line speed he’s a real threat on the rush, Draftin Europe 2018
Could be another Kostin-like find, could be nothing. Just postulating. Cost would certainly be palatable.
Yes, I know he has played in the NHL this year – I noted those 7 games. I’m just not sure we need to look outside the org for middle-pedigree 22 year old tweeners.
I’m just not sure what he has on someone like Lavoie except for 7 games and a re-assignment back down…….
Lavoie is having a much better offensive season in the AHL (and that includes his 6 weeks of doing nothing) and is younger and bigger and higher pedigree.
Kostin was a fairly high pedigree (late first round – WJC star) player that had spent more time in the NHL than AHL in recent times.
I’m not trying to be rude or disrespectful, just not sure what this player has the would warrant an asset out to acquire (even a very depth pick).
Well, the first part of the question was aimed at those who are familiar with BOS, so there’s that. From what I can tell his assignment had a lot to do with their roster’s return to health.
Would be nice to hit another double on a bunt like we did with DS for KK. So I’m looking around for viable options.
Fair enough – I just don’t see why there is a greater chance of this player being a double over internal options – unless/until someone closer to the Boston org responds.
Yep and thank you. I’d normally say right now no team has won a game after playing the Niners all season, but that wasn’t a normal game against the Niners. Which is too bad. All I really wanted was a injury-free game with both teams at their best. A true measure of both. That’s two years in a row now we’ve lost the NFC due to a duct-taped QB. But that’s football.
I think it’s only natural we underrated the Eagles going into this matchup. This has come together very quickly under Siriani and Hurts and the sample size of excellence is much larger for the Niners.
That said, the model in the NFL now is to stack your lineup while you have the advantage of a good QB on his rookie deal. Howie Roseman is the polar opposite of Steve Tambellini. He leaves no stone unturned to fortify his roster and the Eagles are strong at every position group particularly on the lines.
If only the Oil could have emulated a similar approach before McDavid, Drai, and Nurse got the lux contracts. But of course there was MANY holes to fill and miles to go before that infamous balance photo surfaced.
Was frustrating to watch it unfold the way it did today. The 9ers made it further than I expected after the first six games of the season were played and they looked awful. Congratulations to your Eagles, LT
– we can now be friends again. I’m looking forward to a competitive Superbowl game.
These Refs won’t be seeing the Super Bowl these assholes decided it’s about them.
misfit
January 29, 2023 3:11 pm
Barrie is an obvious choice to move along in the offseason if not the deadline, and I’m all for it for the reasons we all know too well (cap hit and duplicate skillsets/role). But I definitely won’t be happy to see him go. He’s been full value since he arrived and is playing some fantastic hockey.
Ryan has been great, and I have zero issue with him playing up the lineup. You can see what he brings out there and it works no matter who is out there with him. But I’m also for having an older player like him sit every couple of games to keep him fresh and ensure he continues to bring that kind of play when he does go in
I could see Barrie going in the off-season (although I’m less convinced its going to happen now than I was 3 months ago) but I can’t imagine he’s moved at the deadline. Anything’s possible but I would say its less than a 1% chance.
I think his most underrated skill is keeping puck in offensive zone on that PP. I’ve never seen a PP be that zone dominant and he’s a big part of why.
I started noticing it last year when I realized anytime other D quarterback puck seemed to squeak out past or get shot and have shot block ending up.losing zone.
Yes, keeping the puck in at the line is a major attribute of his (PP and evens). I also think he has a crazy chemistry with, mainly, Nuge but also Connor regarding where along the blue line he’s going to be to receive a quick back pass (often blind) that crates separation and space and his passes to the flank are always quick and rich in the wheelhouse.
Next season LD is already set. Unless Bro gets **** he’ll be there. He’s almost or there now. Kulak Niems cover 3 LD. Unless you can find a vet LD that does what Kulak does but at 900K
So a right side upgrade is needed. Barrie can’t play 1RD. Ceci shouldn’t. If Bouch can step up fantastic. If he does you have Barrie struggling at D zone play at 4.75M
If Bouch doesn’t take 1 RD, they have to figure out a better partner for Nurse and decide who they can’t afford, and it should be Barrie
He’s good at PP, but let’s not mistake that it has much to do with him. He helps, but it’s all Connor Leo Nuge
Bouch/Nurse have sensational numbers in 100 minutes together this season – everything around 67% including actual goal share and expected goal share.
In 524 minutes last year they were apx 57% in everything, including expected goals, except for actual goals which was down at 42% – 0.963 PDO last year.
Nurse/Bouchard seems to have legs and should have more as Bouchard continues to develop and mature.
McSorley33
January 29, 2023 2:45 pm
Interesting scheme from Silicon Valley on how to block the guy with the 2nd most sacks in the NFL this year.
Too bad about the injury…..heavyweight battle here.
I’m a CFL follower, watched the 4th when back from travelling though, and Bengals couldn’t handle the Chiefs D line, and if Joe had a game plan to follow it wasn’t recognizable. Blah on their O coordinator
Reja
January 29, 2023 2:10 pm
Wow! Was that Walter Payton what a run and T.D for San-Fran.
Two missed tackles. Should’ve had him in the hole. Epps has to wrap up there.
Munny 2.0
January 29, 2023 2:09 pm
Run CMC. The whole drive long. Will still need a Purdy return.
hunter1909
January 29, 2023 2:00 pm
The Hunter1909 30 Season within a Season has now gone 14 games with 16 to play. This season starts with Oilers away @ Seattle and finishes with the biggest game of the year Oilers in Boston to face and beat the Boston Bruins. Has Boston ever had a bad team since before Orr?
Record: 9-3-2 which amortizes into a 117 point season.
Micro season in a season is the last 3 games and the next 5 for 8 relatively “easy” games in an NHL where even the lowly Blue jackets can ice at least 1 quality line that can defeat Edmonton should they turn up unprepared.
This was predicted to be a 5-3 stretch which amortizes into a 2-2-1 post All Star Oilers mini finale that seems like less than we all want but until they beat the 10 points spread we’re sticking to the original prediction.
@ Detroit
@Philly
@Ottawa
@Montreal
Detroit at home.
If you think Oilers get more than 5 points out of these games: press “Thumbs Up”…
If you think Oilers get 5 or less points: press “Thumbs Down”.
See Y’all after the All Star Break!
jtblack
January 29, 2023 1:48 pm
Late to the blog. Just checking in now AND LET ME SAY;
Amazing info / content. So many excellent updates and opinions starting with the HOST and all the way thru. Well done Gents & Ladies.
#LuvThisPlace
Munny 2.0
January 29, 2023 1:38 pm
For all those pundits who were saying Purdy was simply a product of Shanahan, that’s what a true backup looks like.
The downside is he sucks can’t even run a basic offence without giving the Eagles gift penalties. The 49ers better have a magic cure ( Purdy) at halftime their defence is keeping them in it.
49ers stopped them on 4th down huge miss by Kyle and the Refs. When the receiver got up so quickly and kept trying to hurry Hurts to snap it is when Kyle should of taken a TO and then decided whether or not to challenge.
Perhaps the blog should be changed from “Lowetide” to “Lowestradamus”.
jp
January 29, 2023 12:49 pm
Quite a stretch of hockey for the Oilers. They beat LTs January prediction going 8-2-2, and have been 10-3-2 in the 15 games since Christmas (tied for 3rd with a .733 points%).
The most impressive thing for me has been the tightening up of defensive play. At all situations their SF% is 4th, SCF% is 3rd and HDCF% is 1st. Their goal differential is 2nd behind Boston.
They’re the top team in GF rates, and are at or near the top of all the underlying ‘for’ metrics.
They are also the #5 team in GA rates since Christmas. Their SA rates remain average (16th) but they’re not giving up dangerous chances (4th best SCA rate and the best HDCA rate).
The Oilers actually lead the league in both HDCF and HDCA rates since Christmas. Obviously also in HDCF%, as I already mentioned.
Their goaltending has been solid (.913 SV%, 8th in the league).
Their PP goal rates continue to top the league, no surprise there.
Plus their PK has gotten back to decent. 15th best GA rate on the PK, and 11th best PK goal differential because they’ve scored a couple of SH goals. That 4 PP GA LAK game is in here as well. In the other 14 games since Christmas the PK is 2GF-4GA, so very good signs overall.
And the quality play extends to 5v5 as well. They are top 4 in all of SF%, SCF%, HDCF% and GF% at 5v5. They’re 7th in 5v5 GA rates (plus 13th in SA, 6th in SCA and 1st in HDCA rates). Playing well in all game states, and on both sides of the puck.
QoC is contributing some, but their opponents in these 15 games have been:
CGY, SEA, WPG, SEA, NYI, COL, LAK, ANA, SJS, VGK, SEA, TBL, VAN, CBJ, CHI.
-8 vs playoff teams, 7 vs non-playoff teams
-6 vs teams in the top 10 (points%), 5 vs teams in the bottom 10
It’s been an impressive run, and a damn fine time for it. Hopefully they can keep it rolling and keep moving up.
Be interesting to see the splits between the PK taking off (which I feel transpired just prior to the overall improved defensive play), and Campbell starting to play as initially hoped.
Johnny Toews would be a fabulous addition to the squad. A natural leader and Stanley Cup Champion as well as hard working and talented gifted hands. A proud Western Canadian man who would increase our Stanley odds dramatically. Can’t wait to see him skating in Oiler silks.
Well he’s my dream addition too, but looking at the Oilers cap regime, I also admit that it’s a pipe dream addition. Sadly.
Oilers need a face off man who can beat the Bergerons, Hischiers, Comphers, Staals, and Benns on the dot. And Toews when he goes to another team. We don’t have a guy at their level. I’d prefer to have Toews, than face Toews
Also at no point during last nights game did I think that Patty Kane looked particularly dangerous except on the PP. Our PP does not need Patty Kane.
Toews has to first decide that he wants a change of scenery, which is no sure thing. Then he’s going to make a short list of teams he would accept a trade to; given the relationship with Keith and the Oilers, I think it is reasonable to suggest that the Oilers would be on that short list.
The Oilers may need to find a third team to help reduce the cap hit. But Foegele and JP out, with 50% retained on Toews contract is enough to get it done. The pick will be similar to what was negotiated in the Keith deal … conditional 2nd which turns into a first of the Oilers win the cup.
Toews to the Oilers feels very similar to Trottier to the Pens.
Toews has been “connected” to the Jets for years – no different than Matthews connect to the Yotes and McDavid connected to the Leafs, etc., etc.
————–
I haven’t been too interested on renting Toews, just didn’t think it was feasible with that cap hit, etc., etc, but I can see the value of him in May/June.
I’m not sure the costs. I think we need to start with the fact that a third team for double retention is a much. That actually shouldn’t cost much as the real dollars would be nominal. I think Toews’ real salary this season is like $2MM – so like $800K at the deadline and a quarter of that is $200K. I think a 7th round pick should be enough for the Ducks or Yotes to take that on.
Of course, Jesse or Foegele would need to be included and likely Jesse as there is no cap commitment for the future. The Hawks could test drive a “youngish” player with some potential and either re-sign him (lower AAV), let him walk or retain and flip him further.
Now, Jesse/Foegele has no trade value so what do the Hawks want for Toews while retaining 50%? I would NOT do a 1st but would a 2nd and a B prospect do it?
Toews for Puljujarvi, a 2nd, Phil Kemp and a 7th?
I don’t think it does it but its a potential.
Add Schenn as a depth d-man and I’d be happy with that deadline (I don’t see a legit 2LD as reasonably do-able in the next month).
I’d be shocked if toews doesn’t waive. He’s not moving just playing out stretch and playoff run.
PEG looks strong. Nice little homecoming for a run? That’s a dream. Almost worth only waiving to there kind of dream (for a guy who’s already got rings).
Try to help hometown win a cup then sign cheap back home in Chicago next year and just debate bouncing every deadline for a year or two.
If I were toews it probably would be my choice to go try and play hometown hero.
Winnipeg is definitely in the mix … it will all depend on Toews, and if he wants the kind of pressure attached with being a high profile deadline acquisition back to his home town. The way Tavares has been treated at times in Toronto is caveat emptor.
A 3-4 month swing in your hometown? All the people you grew up with just pumped forever if they win.
It’s a once in a blue moon type story.
KassHat
January 29, 2023 12:08 pm
The playoff matches for the West as they are now would be perfect.
OriginalPouzar
January 29, 2023 12:05 pm
We’ll talk more about this tomorrow, but Bakersfield Condors forward Raphael Lavoie is pushing for a recall now. There isn’t a spot available, but the young man is 8-9-17 in his last 16 games. He could get himself traded!
This stretch of games is no longer a “Lavoie Heater” but, for me, is the longest stretch of consistent hockey he’s played as a pro and its heartening.
He’s impacting the game on more of a shift by shift basis and I’ve noticed a few things in his game (1) moving his feet (in all zones), (2) driving the net with power and (3) effort, commitment and battle in the defensive zone.
His goal last night was a lucky bounce – a pass off the d-man an in, however, he made 3 solid plays on the defensive half-wall that created the fast break – full credit to Lavoie.
I’m not sure we see that recall unless there is a rash of injuries but he’s back and he’s in the conversation.
Draft and develop – patience – Ken Holland.
————-
As an aside, I want to give a shout-out to Devon Shore who has been FANTASTIC as a Condor and is an elite player at that level. Its really no surprise that he’s been a great pro and is fully engaged and committed even in the AHL. I saw a picture post-game of him celebrating in the room with a couple of the guys and he looks super happy. I wonder if he’s just really glad to be a major contributor on the ice again – its been a while for him.
I think his 14-days must be up fairly soon and I wonder if they put him on waivers and officially assign him. I think he can be the “new Brad Malone”, at least in the short term, and really help that team and the kids.
Good to hear Lavoie is playing well. Oilers need another 2nd round pick to work out. So far its McLeod, crickets and then all the way back to Tyler Pitlick and Marincin in 2010, Petry in 2006. Too many 2nd round picks traded also with nothing to show for them.
His main attribute is his shot – he’s got a great release and is able to get it off quickly. I’ve always assumed that he would “make it” if he could find a way to “find the soft area” and unleash that shot (as a pro).
Truth be told, in this stretch, much of his offence has come from strong board work and powering towards the net. I saw some of that back in the Q in his draft plus 1 but I’m seeing it more consistently in the last month.
Here is hoping he stays healthy for the rest of the year, has a full summer of hockey training (not rehabbing) and is ready and raring to go come Sept/Oct.
The hope is that his name is mentioned every time Bourgault’s is as we approach and go through camp……
In an interview after the game he said this week with the Condors has been refreshing for him.
You can find it on twitter – Condors feed.
Reja
January 29, 2023 11:57 am
What a great interview with Vinny he’s so full of life. The path he took while staying positive and taking in all the advice from his Coaches is a a great story. His wing span has to be as big as Chara. When he took the ice for his first game what impressed me immediately was his speed for a big man. If your a forward are you really going to dump it into his corner. Vincent knows he belongs and he’s only going to get better and better like Chara did as he aged.
What blows me away is his hands. I expected all the mountainous stuff, the brobdingnagian strides, the condor reach… I did not expect the soft hands and so much eyes-up play.
OriginalPouzar
January 29, 2023 11:57 am
On the Raddysh goal, of course there was the turnover at the offensive blue by Holloway but, also, Raddysh beat Holloway through the slot and to the net to receive the great pass.
Turning over the puck is the key one. I will tell you that decades of watching hockey have taught me that counting on wingers is unwise.
maudite
January 29, 2023 11:56 am
With the likes of st Louis and Florida really looking like they are sliding into the abyss, it’ll be interesting if they start canabilizing their rosters.
Marc Staal @750k playing 15 min/game might be worth a flyer for late pick…
PDO 986, seemingly positive underlying stats, 2v1/2 ish min/game pk…
I think schenn ends up costing more than Staal by largish margin.
Like 2nd rounder compared to 3rd or 4th.
Bumping niemo down depth chart with steady defensive vet on LH side seems more beneficial.
I’d be intrigued at a barrie/Staal set.
Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Bag of Pucks
January 29, 2023 11:56 am
You don’t have to apologize for enjoying a fight LT. They were willing combatants and a single melee in the moment isn’t equivalent to career MMA fighters or even an NFL Center who takes a headshot on nearly every play.
I know the culture would have us believe otherwise but the human body is not made out of glass. We have evolved over centuries to endure the odd scrape. And they keep their helmets on now! If anything, worry about the damage to their hands.
Has nothing to do with culture. I saw Reg Fleming’s brain and I have witnessed tragedy from NHL players who fought and then died too young because of the pain. I can’t endorse that in any way. I have no enemies on this subject, just the knowledge that my enjoyment comes at the expense of others. I enjoyed that fight, but not as much as I did when I was 20 and hadn’t seen reg Fleming’s brain.
I would suggest it’s a matter of frequency and repeated trauma. The game has legislated out career fighters (ie goons) and that’s progress. But 2 guys wearing helmets having the odd tilt is equivalent to you or I having the odd car accident.
Hitters get beaned by pitchers. NBA players get elbowed in the paint. NHL players drop the gloves now and then. Shit happens. A little bloodlust is systemic to the species. Remember how a crowd immediately happened when there was a fight on the schoolyard, girls included? We like to think we’re above this stuff. We’re not.
Reja
January 29, 2023 11:37 am
This is just off the top of my head but it usually takes a starter type Goalie a fair bit of time when playing for a new team to get in the groove. Jack is starting to look more and more comfortable especially on rebound control and his above average glove hand side as he flashed the leather twice when the game was in doubt. If you told me Campbell would be sporting a 15-8-1 record while not coming close too playing his best Hockey I would of been excited to see how our team fairs when he does get hot.
Skinner has been very good in a few of his Playoff runs in his younger years. Anyhow I still see Jack leading us to a Cup. Once Jack gets more comfortable and peaks come Playoff time Holland’s free agent signing of him will be legendary.
Is Berlin the first EBUG to ever play minutes for the Oilers? Most of the 1990’s & the early 2000’s I was only able to follow the Oil intermittently, so my memories are foggy regarding the team during that time period.
He was scheduled to be the EBUG (who sits in the stands and is eligible to dress for either team upon injury), however, when Skinner wasn’t able to back-up, he was signed to an ATO and was eligible to dress and play at the coach’s discretion (as he did).
Presumably another EBUG was found to sit in the stands and dress upon injury emergency.
Pickard is the 3rd stringer. Berlin had to sign an ATO to play, so isn’t a contracted/salaried hockey player. Ultimately he had to back up Campbell on an Emergency basis.
The NAIT goaltender was actually the BUEBUG. Berlin was the EBUG.
Not actually an interesting debate….
I take it by lack of response to my question that Berlin IS the first ever Oiler
EBUG to get NHL minutes. I recall the UBC EBUG for the Oilers in Vancouver dressing in the last 10 years, and perhaps another U of A goalie in Edmonton (or an Oil King, I might be wrong here, due to the Forsberg waiver claim/ Grosnick driving up from LA).
Obviously this is less common than a solar eclipse.
Bruce? You are a goalie and astronomy expert, care to weigh in, lol.
Berlin was not the technical EBUG last night – he was scheduled to be but plans changed when Skinner couldn’t go and he was signed an ATO but the Oilers.
The EBUG is available to either team and only dresses in the case of injury and only comes in to the came in the case of a second injury.
That was simply not Berlin’s role last night.
Its a non-matter but relevant to the question posted.
Perhaps your question was meant to be more general to include situations like last night where a non-roster/non-contracted/non-pro player is signed for essentially that night on an emergency basis – that’s a valid and fun discussion but its not limited to the technical EBUG.
Redbird62
January 29, 2023 11:34 am
What a thrill for Matt Berlin getting 2:45 in the nets of a regular season NHL game. And besides getting recognition on NHL.com other hockey stats sites show him as a bonafide NHL player as well. Hockeydb lists his name with the NHL logo beside it and only NHL players get a hockey-reference page.
Looking around, he has several playing connections to current or former members of the Oiler organization. Beside his relationship with Stuart Skinner in minor hockey, he also played with Kailer Yamamoto in Spokane, former Oiler Ethan Bear in Seattle, and future prospects Carter Savoie and Noah Philp with the Sherwood Park Crusaders and the U of A Golden Bears respectively.
Like the young lad said in his interview the Hockey World considering all things is small. With him signing a contract yesterday any idea how much he made? What if he practices with the team ever again?
Since it was an amateur tryout contract he made nothing. He had never played pro before so was apparently ineligible to sign a 1 day pro contract where he could’ve made some $.
Fulfilling a life long dream to play in the NHL …. Priceless.
teddyturnbuckle
January 29, 2023 11:06 am
Great rebound game last night.
The good. Draisaitl apparently read the press clippings about how awful he was last game because he was very good last night. I had goosebumps when the Golden bear goalie Berlin came in. I was hoping Chicago would get a few more shots for some more cheers from the crowd.
The Bad. Puljujarvi has worse hands than Steve Macintyre in front of the net. I like his hitting and neutral zone play but the guy can’t score. I’m convinced the Oilers need an upgrade at the deadline with his salary moving out. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Holloway in the last month but last night he took a step back with a couple of bad turnovers. He needs to get the cute back hand passes out of his game soon or he will be watching this years playoffs from the press box.
norm2015
January 29, 2023 10:56 am
I remember Sorochan in 2007 but i forget some of the other U of A emergency backups the Oil have used over the year!
HenryDrix
January 29, 2023 10:56 am
I like the Nick Bjustatd rumor. Make it happen Ken.
OriginalPouzar
January 29, 2023 10:56 am
Derek Ryan, like Mattias Janmark, is irritating some Oilers fans because he’s getting feature minutes. I
I posited pre-game that I would prefer Jesse Puljujarvi as the 2-way winger on that line, the defensive presence, over Derek Ryan.
I stick to that position but fully acknowledge that Derek Ryan had a great game by eye last night. I saw him fast, tenacious and engaged.
I do think that Ryan’s minutes need to be managed – we’ve seen him go hot for 4-5 games and earn increased minutes but he fades after. He’s 36 and, for me, he’s best used at 12 or so 5 on 5 minutes per game with some PK drizzled in.
Again: can’t fault the coaching decision last night – he earned the spot and has played well in it – its simply not a term solution in my opinion but a stop-gap.
Pujo had a shift with 97 last night midway through the 1st period. I think 71 was out there with them. Pujo killed both the sorties with poor puck play, in particular the second one, where he simply could not make a pass surrounded under pressure. this happened a couple of times last night. He really struggles with the puck when he has limited time or space.
Agreed that Pujo seems confused with the puck… unsure if he wants to immediately dish to McDavid or carry it a bit and instead holds onto it too long.
As a counter though, midway in the first he also tied up a hawks player after a rebound that would’ve very likely been a goal. If one of the big-2 had done it we’d see several replays but when it’s Pujo it isn’t shown. He does good things and bad, seems the bad plays just seem more prominently noted.
No, I see his good plays too and like the player, but unfortunately most of the good comes without the puck. While that’s still useful, there’s no way Holland can give an offensive black hole a $3M payday this summer.
If I was running the show I would have J.P on a shutdown line. He would be killing penalties and on the ice at the end of the game protecting the lead.
Oilers have 2 b2b sets remaining.
1 of those is vs WPG @ home then vs WPG away.
2. @ La then @ Anaheim
2 nice spaced little 4 game eastern swings NE
Rest of travel mainly golden state.
This shoukd be an entertaining, well rested run up to playoffs.
New dom player cards are in
Sam Girard -4.9 mil value
as predicted
I didn’t bother adding it up but those player cards showing oilers have what 30 million surplus value on current roster?
Definitely made me question what significance these valuations realistically have
What happened to Nora? She was sooooo wonderful. Did she get canned? Was she not meeting her sales target? What kind of company sets such unrealistic targets anyway? Oh man, I sure hope you don’t get fired too. But if you do, I know of a place where you can be your own non-public boss…
Barrie played the left side three times last night in the third period. All with Desharnais on the ice.
What do you figure it means though?
Probably means kulak had a sore hand…did u see Lafferty’s face? Mouth, nose and eye were bloodied…I assume the nose and eye were damaged by the visor getting punched in…can’t feel too good on the knuckles
Could be I guess. Kulak kept playing a regular shift through the 3rd though. And his TOI ended up only 1.5 min shy of his season average even though he spent 5 min in the box and Barrie got some left side shifts. I didn’t see any indication of an injury either, did you?
I figured it was more likely getting Barrie some reps on the left side in case they need it down the line. Maybe also trying to get him the hat trick while also not disrupting Broberg-Bouchard and Desharnais’ ice time.
I figure it means Barrie can play the left side if push comes to shove.
Kulak was scraped up and Barrie was in pursuit of a hat trick. Nothing more than that.
Wonder how Hawks fans feel about S. Jones’s contract today…
Shore has been recalled from his conditioning stint.
I really don’t get this at all.
I’ve been posting all day about how great he’s been for the Condors, for the team and for the kids, in a short time. He’s been playing with Lavoie and Tulio and the line has been soooo good.
I was thinking that they may waive him and keep him there when his conditioning stint is up.
Its been like 8 days and he has six more days to go but he’s been re-called even through the Oil don’t play until Feb 7 and the Condors play Tues and Thurs.
Odd to me on the surface.
Perhaps he Oilers feel Shore is entitled to the break that the rest of the NHL Oilers are getting. Perhaps Shore had made and cleared break plans with the Oilers beforehand.
Good points. And can he potentially even continue the conditioning stint following the break? I have no idea the rules on that.
Perhaps this is true.
While 13.8 doesn’t specifically speak to it, given the nature of the “conditioning loan”, I doubt they’d be able to send him back down pursuant to the section.
I would expect he’ll be on waivers and assigned (after learning) in due course though (although, after next Friday, the Condors have a week off themselves.
Condors play Tues, Thurs, Fri this week – would have liked that Lavoie/Shore/Tulio line to continues but, well, I have no say, lol.
No, we certainly have no say in those sorts of decisions.
I’m not sure the timeframe you’re thinking regarding ‘in due course’, but I’d note that until/unless Yamamoto is activated, or a trade to bring in salary is made, there is zero roster/cap pressure to waive/assign Shore.
He very well may not be waived and assigned unless necessary.
Eagles vs Chiefs should be a great Super Bowl.
It’s the classic fighter vs boxer matchup.
Chiefs under Reid do it with scheme, motion, deception, and execution. Eagles are physical on every snap. They impose their will with dominant lines and smashmouth football.
Bring it on!
Eagles we’re on cruise control all game. Who ever controls the O line wins in my opinion. I’m surprised the Chiefs are 1-1/2 point favourites might even go up another point once the Mahomes and Kelce plus other injuries are healed up a bit. Chiefs are beat-up all over the place but Vegas and the betters love Mahomes. Eagles and their brotherly love Coach curb stomp the Chiefs 28-10. The Buc’s D coordinator showed the scheme on how to spy Mahomes.
Will be interesting to watch the line move over the next 2 weeks. Two passionate fanbases will have the bookies dancing to balance their exposure.
Looks like the early money is coming in on the Chiefs. Sharps typically bet early while the line is still soft. I think waiting a bit might be the play here though. Spread will be bigger than 1.5 by game day imo.
Props tend to see the most action for SBs.
Lots to be happy about at the all-star break. Progress is being made.
We’ve broken in a large number of young guys and rookies (which has cost points) but will pay cap and results dividends later this year and next season. Skinner, Broberg, Bouch, Holloway, Vinny and even Niemo. That’s a lot but the cap requires it and we could afford to do it in the first 50 games.
The use of Vinny is genius. Our RHD was unbalanced with two offensive guys (Barrie and Bouch) plus a two way (Ceci). Mainstream thinking would have forced a trade of Bouch or Barrie for a more defensive guy, or use a LHD in the top 6, but the coaches addressed the issue by adding a big, nasty #7 defense-first RHD and running an 11-7 lineup. No surprise we are suddenly winning a lot. Balance, it’s a thing, but you don’t alway have to achieve it in a conventional way.
Same thing with the forwards. Add Kane and Kostin to balance the toughness/skill balance and the swagger emerges. I’d add another big winger at the deadline, Okposo was my favorite, but BUF is rolling and no way they trade their captain now. David Perron would also be nice but his contract runs through next year and that’s a problem unless Fog and Yamo go the other way. Maata as LHD insurance also works for me.
When we do make a trade, the guys who need to be moved are wingers with larger contracts that are still in place next year (Yamo and Foegle). JP can stay as his contract is done this summer and we can deal him, let him walk, or sign him to a smaller salary. Our deadline deals need to be cap neutral hockey trades that help us with next summer as much as this spring.
Enjoy the break.
Wow. Bengals commit seppuku with an astonishingly dumb penalty to put the Chiefs in field goal range.
Situational football. It’s a thing.
Game changing penalty
Summarizing!
The Battalion were shut out, so Petrov was held off the scoresheet and has now fallen to 3rd in OHL scoring, three back of 1st.
Prospecting takes a break until Tuesday.
Burrow vs Mahomes is Ali vs Frazier, Borg vs McEnroe, McDavid vs MacKinnon, etc.
Borg vs Picard
Ginger vs Mary Ann
Betty > Wilma
I would pay good money to watch this “game”.
Good gord I love this community. You beat me to it.
Rafferty vs Colborne
Page VS Beck
Not really. Beck is a genius. When Page ran out of riffs to steal, he retired to his castle.. Beck kept producing new and innovative stuff.
That was sick. Mahomes is a monster.
For those who pay attention to BOS, what are your thoughts on Jakub Laukko? Left shot forward currently playing in the AHL due to depth.
I know little about him but only go by numbers and his numbers in 3 AHL seasons seem pedestrian and I’m not sure what he would have on, say, Ralph Lavoie, except for those 7 games of NHL experience and being year older.
The Oilers have 4-5 prospects in Bakersfield with “third line upside”, no?
Laukko played in the NHL this year (7GP, 1G-1A-2P-2PIM); Lavoie did not.
Could be another Kostin-like find, could be nothing. Just postulating. Cost would certainly be palatable.
Yes, I know he has played in the NHL this year – I noted those 7 games. I’m just not sure we need to look outside the org for middle-pedigree 22 year old tweeners.
I’m just not sure what he has on someone like Lavoie except for 7 games and a re-assignment back down…….
Lavoie is having a much better offensive season in the AHL (and that includes his 6 weeks of doing nothing) and is younger and bigger and higher pedigree.
Kostin was a fairly high pedigree (late first round – WJC star) player that had spent more time in the NHL than AHL in recent times.
I’m not trying to be rude or disrespectful, just not sure what this player has the would warrant an asset out to acquire (even a very depth pick).
Well, the first part of the question was aimed at those who are familiar with BOS, so there’s that. From what I can tell his assignment had a lot to do with their roster’s return to health.
Would be nice to hit another double on a bunt like we did with DS for KK. So I’m looking around for viable options.
Fair enough – I just don’t see why there is a greater chance of this player being a double over internal options – unless/until someone closer to the Boston org responds.
Keep looking young fellow you’ll get there eventually.
Romo is so much better than anything else on the planet.
Jim Nantz isn’t too shabby either. His voice immediately conjures up Augusta in the spring for me. A total pro.
In your life, have you seen anything like that?!’
Bengals D is going to give Mahomes fits.
https://youtu.be/aDACorIaxNw
Eagles went to 4 straight NFC Championships under Andy Reid and lost 3 of them. I know how much losing this game hurts.
Congratulations to the Niners on an exceptional season and a bright future. Lance vs Purdy is a nice problem to have.
Yep and thank you. I’d normally say right now no team has won a game after playing the Niners all season, but that wasn’t a normal game against the Niners. Which is too bad. All I really wanted was a injury-free game with both teams at their best. A true measure of both. That’s two years in a row now we’ve lost the NFC due to a duct-taped QB. But that’s football.
Best of luck in the big one.
I honestly thought the 49ers would win. Strong defense, they had every misfortune possible in the first 20+ minutes and were only down 7-0.
I think it’s only natural we underrated the Eagles going into this matchup. This has come together very quickly under Siriani and Hurts and the sample size of excellence is much larger for the Niners.
That said, the model in the NFL now is to stack your lineup while you have the advantage of a good QB on his rookie deal. Howie Roseman is the polar opposite of Steve Tambellini. He leaves no stone unturned to fortify his roster and the Eagles are strong at every position group particularly on the lines.
If only the Oil could have emulated a similar approach before McDavid, Drai, and Nurse got the lux contracts. But of course there was MANY holes to fill and miles to go before that infamous balance photo surfaced.
Was frustrating to watch it unfold the way it did today. The 9ers made it further than I expected after the first six games of the season were played and they looked awful. Congratulations to your Eagles, LT
– we can now be friends again. I’m looking forward to a competitive Superbowl game.
Kyle Shanahan is cursed for playing Robert Griffin III when injured.
Game turned on a backup tight end blowing a block on Reddick.
Very reminscent of the sack on Matt Ryan when Shanahan’s Falcons lost the 28-3 Super Bowl to the Pats.
Shanahan plowed through QBs this season. Pass protection would seem to be his Achilles heel.
The QB Curse. For taking Smith over local boy Rodgers. The Niners’ Kelly-Doan moment.
Shanahan is a grown man wearing a flat brim. He deserves whatever he gets. lol
Pumped for the Bengals game. Unfinished business from last season.
Side note: still feels strange that the Bengals are a competitive team.
Ickey Shuffle.
Great line. “Unclear if Jalen Hurts’ shoulder is 100% What is 100%? The blood alcohol level of Eagles fans in the Linc today.”
lol incredible.
The plus sized lady is warming up her vocal cords.
Reality is the defence allowed 28+ points. (Waiting for the baby)
LT will be a happy man. ☺ His Eagles looking Super Bowl worthy.
It’s been a good day.
Wouldn’t it be something if they played Andy Reid’s squad in the show?
The Polish Prince.
These Refs won’t be seeing the Super Bowl these assholes decided it’s about them.
Barrie is an obvious choice to move along in the offseason if not the deadline, and I’m all for it for the reasons we all know too well (cap hit and duplicate skillsets/role). But I definitely won’t be happy to see him go. He’s been full value since he arrived and is playing some fantastic hockey.
Ryan has been great, and I have zero issue with him playing up the lineup. You can see what he brings out there and it works no matter who is out there with him. But I’m also for having an older player like him sit every couple of games to keep him fresh and ensure he continues to bring that kind of play when he does go in
Barrie isn’t going anywhere.
I could see Barrie going in the off-season (although I’m less convinced its going to happen now than I was 3 months ago) but I can’t imagine he’s moved at the deadline. Anything’s possible but I would say its less than a 1% chance.
If they can identify right partner and acquire:
Barrie plays out that contract here.
I think his most underrated skill is keeping puck in offensive zone on that PP. I’ve never seen a PP be that zone dominant and he’s a big part of why.
I started noticing it last year when I realized anytime other D quarterback puck seemed to squeak out past or get shot and have shot block ending up.losing zone.
Yes, keeping the puck in at the line is a major attribute of his (PP and evens). I also think he has a crazy chemistry with, mainly, Nuge but also Connor regarding where along the blue line he’s going to be to receive a quick back pass (often blind) that crates separation and space and his passes to the flank are always quick and rich in the wheelhouse.
Under-rated part of the PP.
If you have a duplicate skill, trade the one who brings the most in return.
Money will be similar going forward.
Next season LD is already set. Unless Bro gets **** he’ll be there. He’s almost or there now. Kulak Niems cover 3 LD. Unless you can find a vet LD that does what Kulak does but at 900K
So a right side upgrade is needed. Barrie can’t play 1RD. Ceci shouldn’t. If Bouch can step up fantastic. If he does you have Barrie struggling at D zone play at 4.75M
If Bouch doesn’t take 1 RD, they have to figure out a better partner for Nurse and decide who they can’t afford, and it should be Barrie
He’s good at PP, but let’s not mistake that it has much to do with him. He helps, but it’s all Connor Leo Nuge
4.75 needs to go to a 1 RD
Bouch/Nurse have sensational numbers in 100 minutes together this season – everything around 67% including actual goal share and expected goal share.
In 524 minutes last year they were apx 57% in everything, including expected goals, except for actual goals which was down at 42% – 0.963 PDO last year.
Nurse/Bouchard seems to have legs and should have more as Bouchard continues to develop and mature.
Interesting scheme from Silicon Valley on how to block the guy with the 2nd most sacks in the NFL this year.
Too bad about the injury…..heavyweight battle here.
His name is Hasson Reddick, Kyle.
Some little baby just logged in and down voted every NFL post. Some folks love their silos. lol
Johnson greased up his own fingertips. The 49ers are done if Purdy is out. What a frustrating first half.
Eagles pass rush has been a massive factor.
It’s won and lost in the tranches
And when coaches are uncreative
I’m a CFL follower, watched the 4th when back from travelling though, and Bengals couldn’t handle the Chiefs D line, and if Joe had a game plan to follow it wasn’t recognizable. Blah on their O coordinator
Wow! Was that Walter Payton what a run and T.D for San-Fran.
Two missed tackles. Should’ve had him in the hole. Epps has to wrap up there.
Run CMC. The whole drive long. Will still need a Purdy return.
The Hunter1909 30 Season within a Season has now gone 14 games with 16 to play. This season starts with Oilers away @ Seattle and finishes with the biggest game of the year Oilers in Boston to face and beat the Boston Bruins. Has Boston ever had a bad team since before Orr?
Record: 9-3-2 which amortizes into a 117 point season.
Micro season in a season is the last 3 games and the next 5 for 8 relatively “easy” games in an NHL where even the lowly Blue jackets can ice at least 1 quality line that can defeat Edmonton should they turn up unprepared.
This was predicted to be a 5-3 stretch which amortizes into a 2-2-1 post All Star Oilers mini finale that seems like less than we all want but until they beat the 10 points spread we’re sticking to the original prediction.
@ Detroit
@Philly
@Ottawa
@Montreal
Detroit at home.
If you think Oilers get more than 5 points out of these games: press “Thumbs Up”…
If you think Oilers get 5 or less points: press “Thumbs Down”.
See Y’all after the All Star Break!
Late to the blog. Just checking in now AND LET ME SAY;
Amazing info / content. So many excellent updates and opinions starting with the HOST and all the way thru. Well done Gents & Ladies.
#LuvThisPlace
For all those pundits who were saying Purdy was simply a product of Shanahan, that’s what a true backup looks like.
The downside is he had no practice reps. The upside for you is the Eagles D didn’t gameplan for him at all. They HAVE to lean on the run game now.
The downside is he sucks can’t even run a basic offence without giving the Eagles gift penalties. The 49ers better have a magic cure ( Purdy) at halftime their defence is keeping them in it.
Hey, I’m trying not to jinx my team! 😶 He does have the look of a career journeyman so far.
People talk about 49ers D….which is fine and fair.
But today, San Fran will be facing an Eagles O line has been steam rolling teams all year.
Hurts the recipient of a 25 steam boat protection on that first drive.
49ers stopped them on 4th down huge miss by Kyle and the Refs. When the receiver got up so quickly and kept trying to hurry Hurts to snap it is when Kyle should of taken a TO and then decided whether or not to challenge.
I would’ve like to have seen a few more angles of that catch.
Non catch. FTFY.
If Fred Warner is out, it’s ball game over. He’s the true DPOY.
Whew
Players pass through concussion protocol quickly in a Championship game! He IS a great player.
Our fine host does not get near enough credit for his accuracy of his predictions.
Perhaps the blog should be changed from “Lowetide” to “Lowestradamus”.
Quite a stretch of hockey for the Oilers. They beat LTs January prediction going 8-2-2, and have been 10-3-2 in the 15 games since Christmas (tied for 3rd with a .733 points%).
The most impressive thing for me has been the tightening up of defensive play. At all situations their SF% is 4th, SCF% is 3rd and HDCF% is 1st. Their goal differential is 2nd behind Boston.
They’re the top team in GF rates, and are at or near the top of all the underlying ‘for’ metrics.
They are also the #5 team in GA rates since Christmas. Their SA rates remain average (16th) but they’re not giving up dangerous chances (4th best SCA rate and the best HDCA rate).
The Oilers actually lead the league in both HDCF and HDCA rates since Christmas. Obviously also in HDCF%, as I already mentioned.
Their goaltending has been solid (.913 SV%, 8th in the league).
Their PP goal rates continue to top the league, no surprise there.
Plus their PK has gotten back to decent. 15th best GA rate on the PK, and 11th best PK goal differential because they’ve scored a couple of SH goals. That 4 PP GA LAK game is in here as well. In the other 14 games since Christmas the PK is 2GF-4GA, so very good signs overall.
And the quality play extends to 5v5 as well. They are top 4 in all of SF%, SCF%, HDCF% and GF% at 5v5. They’re 7th in 5v5 GA rates (plus 13th in SA, 6th in SCA and 1st in HDCA rates). Playing well in all game states, and on both sides of the puck.
QoC is contributing some, but their opponents in these 15 games have been:
CGY, SEA, WPG, SEA, NYI, COL, LAK, ANA, SJS, VGK, SEA, TBL, VAN, CBJ, CHI.
-8 vs playoff teams, 7 vs non-playoff teams
-6 vs teams in the top 10 (points%), 5 vs teams in the bottom 10
It’s been an impressive run, and a damn fine time for it. Hopefully they can keep it rolling and keep moving up.
Be interesting to see the splits between the PK taking off (which I feel transpired just prior to the overall improved defensive play), and Campbell starting to play as initially hoped.
That was great work – thank you for the numbers.
I think the Oilers are 40-17 goals in this 7-0-1 stretch…..
Great post! Thank you for posting the numbers.
Great post! Thanks for pulling this all together.
Johnny Toews would be a fabulous addition to the squad. A natural leader and Stanley Cup Champion as well as hard working and talented gifted hands. A proud Western Canadian man who would increase our Stanley odds dramatically. Can’t wait to see him skating in Oiler silks.
Well he’s my dream addition too, but looking at the Oilers cap regime, I also admit that it’s a pipe dream addition. Sadly.
Oilers need a face off man who can beat the Bergerons, Hischiers, Comphers, Staals, and Benns on the dot. And Toews when he goes to another team. We don’t have a guy at their level. I’d prefer to have Toews, than face Toews
ROR if his leg heals.
Even harder to obtain, more expensive, and yeah, we also gotta beat whatever team he ends up on too.
More expensive?
AAV is $3MM lower, so you mean assets out?
You’d think the injury would lower the price significantly due to the risk he doesn’t fully recover in time for the playoffs.
Exactly.
Also at no point during last nights game did I think that Patty Kane looked particularly dangerous except on the PP. Our PP does not need Patty Kane.
Toews has to first decide that he wants a change of scenery, which is no sure thing. Then he’s going to make a short list of teams he would accept a trade to; given the relationship with Keith and the Oilers, I think it is reasonable to suggest that the Oilers would be on that short list.
The Oilers may need to find a third team to help reduce the cap hit. But Foegele and JP out, with 50% retained on Toews contract is enough to get it done. The pick will be similar to what was negotiated in the Keith deal … conditional 2nd which turns into a first of the Oilers win the cup.
Toews to the Oilers feels very similar to Trottier to the Pens.
Lots of chatter that Toews will end up in Winnipeg in a homecoming move.
The Jets have $9 million in accumulated deadline cap space so the acquisition would be painless.
You talking out of your behind does not make it chatter
Toews has been “connected” to the Jets for years – no different than Matthews connect to the Yotes and McDavid connected to the Leafs, etc., etc.
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I haven’t been too interested on renting Toews, just didn’t think it was feasible with that cap hit, etc., etc, but I can see the value of him in May/June.
I’m not sure the costs. I think we need to start with the fact that a third team for double retention is a much. That actually shouldn’t cost much as the real dollars would be nominal. I think Toews’ real salary this season is like $2MM – so like $800K at the deadline and a quarter of that is $200K. I think a 7th round pick should be enough for the Ducks or Yotes to take that on.
Of course, Jesse or Foegele would need to be included and likely Jesse as there is no cap commitment for the future. The Hawks could test drive a “youngish” player with some potential and either re-sign him (lower AAV), let him walk or retain and flip him further.
Now, Jesse/Foegele has no trade value so what do the Hawks want for Toews while retaining 50%? I would NOT do a 1st but would a 2nd and a B prospect do it?
Toews for Puljujarvi, a 2nd, Phil Kemp and a 7th?
I don’t think it does it but its a potential.
Add Schenn as a depth d-man and I’d be happy with that deadline (I don’t see a legit 2LD as reasonably do-able in the next month).
Chatter.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-trade-targets-four-proposals-for-blackhawks-captain-jonathan-toews/
More chatter.
https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/nhl_rumors_would_jonathan_toews_be_a_possibility_for_the_winnipeg_jets/s1_17076_38245705
Even more chatter.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10055664-br-nhl-staff-roundtable-where-should-jonathan-toews-be-traded
Extended chatter.
https://nhlrumors.com/nhl-rumors-would-jonathan-toews-be-a-possibility-for-the-winnipeg-jets/2022/12/15/
Video chatter.
https://youtu.be/0R9UwLoy0RY
Bravo, my dude. Bravo!
Never back down.
It’s relevant I’d say.
I’d be shocked if toews doesn’t waive. He’s not moving just playing out stretch and playoff run.
PEG looks strong. Nice little homecoming for a run? That’s a dream. Almost worth only waiving to there kind of dream (for a guy who’s already got rings).
Try to help hometown win a cup then sign cheap back home in Chicago next year and just debate bouncing every deadline for a year or two.
If I were toews it probably would be my choice to go try and play hometown hero.
I can see that more then him coming to Edmonton.
Yep.
Winnipeg has $9 million in cap space end could easily manage Toews’ $10 million cap hit without paying assets to get a third team involved.
Toews would be considered a god in Manitoba if he helps get the Jets to the up final.
Keith was Jones plus a conditional 3rd that turns into a 2nd if the Oilers reached the Finals.
Winnipeg is definitely in the mix … it will all depend on Toews, and if he wants the kind of pressure attached with being a high profile deadline acquisition back to his home town. The way Tavares has been treated at times in Toronto is caveat emptor.
A 3-4 month swing in your hometown? All the people you grew up with just pumped forever if they win.
It’s a once in a blue moon type story.
The playoff matches for the West as they are now would be perfect.
This stretch of games is no longer a “Lavoie Heater” but, for me, is the longest stretch of consistent hockey he’s played as a pro and its heartening.
He’s impacting the game on more of a shift by shift basis and I’ve noticed a few things in his game (1) moving his feet (in all zones), (2) driving the net with power and (3) effort, commitment and battle in the defensive zone.
His goal last night was a lucky bounce – a pass off the d-man an in, however, he made 3 solid plays on the defensive half-wall that created the fast break – full credit to Lavoie.
I’m not sure we see that recall unless there is a rash of injuries but he’s back and he’s in the conversation.
Draft and develop – patience – Ken Holland.
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As an aside, I want to give a shout-out to Devon Shore who has been FANTASTIC as a Condor and is an elite player at that level. Its really no surprise that he’s been a great pro and is fully engaged and committed even in the AHL. I saw a picture post-game of him celebrating in the room with a couple of the guys and he looks super happy. I wonder if he’s just really glad to be a major contributor on the ice again – its been a while for him.
I think his 14-days must be up fairly soon and I wonder if they put him on waivers and officially assign him. I think he can be the “new Brad Malone”, at least in the short term, and really help that team and the kids.
Good to hear Lavoie is playing well. Oilers need another 2nd round pick to work out. So far its McLeod, crickets and then all the way back to Tyler Pitlick and Marincin in 2010, Petry in 2006. Too many 2nd round picks traded also with nothing to show for them.
Lavoie with points in 8/10 games.
I see him as a pure goal scorer. Given the creativity from our centers- I would really like to see if this gift translates in the NHL.
His main attribute is his shot – he’s got a great release and is able to get it off quickly. I’ve always assumed that he would “make it” if he could find a way to “find the soft area” and unleash that shot (as a pro).
Truth be told, in this stretch, much of his offence has come from strong board work and powering towards the net. I saw some of that back in the Q in his draft plus 1 but I’m seeing it more consistently in the last month.
Here is hoping he stays healthy for the rest of the year, has a full summer of hockey training (not rehabbing) and is ready and raring to go come Sept/Oct.
The hope is that his name is mentioned every time Bourgault’s is as we approach and go through camp……
Thx for the info OP. Great story.
In an interview after the game he said this week with the Condors has been refreshing for him.
You can find it on twitter – Condors feed.
What a great interview with Vinny he’s so full of life. The path he took while staying positive and taking in all the advice from his Coaches is a a great story. His wing span has to be as big as Chara. When he took the ice for his first game what impressed me immediately was his speed for a big man. If your a forward are you really going to dump it into his corner. Vincent knows he belongs and he’s only going to get better and better like Chara did as he aged.
What blows me away is his hands. I expected all the mountainous stuff, the brobdingnagian strides, the condor reach… I did not expect the soft hands and so much eyes-up play.
On the Raddysh goal, of course there was the turnover at the offensive blue by Holloway but, also, Raddysh beat Holloway through the slot and to the net to receive the great pass.
Two teachable moments on one sequence!
Turning over the puck is the key one. I will tell you that decades of watching hockey have taught me that counting on wingers is unwise.
With the likes of st Louis and Florida really looking like they are sliding into the abyss, it’ll be interesting if they start canabilizing their rosters.
Marc Staal @750k playing 15 min/game might be worth a flyer for late pick…
PDO 986, seemingly positive underlying stats, 2v1/2 ish min/game pk…
Staal or Schenn – I lean towards Schenn personally (although Schenn is a righty and Staal a leftie…..).
I think schenn ends up costing more than Staal by largish margin.
Like 2nd rounder compared to 3rd or 4th.
Bumping niemo down depth chart with steady defensive vet on LH side seems more beneficial.
I’d be intrigued at a barrie/Staal set.
You don’t have to apologize for enjoying a fight LT. They were willing combatants and a single melee in the moment isn’t equivalent to career MMA fighters or even an NFL Center who takes a headshot on nearly every play.
I know the culture would have us believe otherwise but the human body is not made out of glass. We have evolved over centuries to endure the odd scrape. And they keep their helmets on now! If anything, worry about the damage to their hands.
Has nothing to do with culture. I saw Reg Fleming’s brain and I have witnessed tragedy from NHL players who fought and then died too young because of the pain. I can’t endorse that in any way. I have no enemies on this subject, just the knowledge that my enjoyment comes at the expense of others. I enjoyed that fight, but not as much as I did when I was 20 and hadn’t seen reg Fleming’s brain.
I would suggest it’s a matter of frequency and repeated trauma. The game has legislated out career fighters (ie goons) and that’s progress. But 2 guys wearing helmets having the odd tilt is equivalent to you or I having the odd car accident.
Hitters get beaned by pitchers. NBA players get elbowed in the paint. NHL players drop the gloves now and then. Shit happens. A little bloodlust is systemic to the species. Remember how a crowd immediately happened when there was a fight on the schoolyard, girls included? We like to think we’re above this stuff. We’re not.
This is just off the top of my head but it usually takes a starter type Goalie a fair bit of time when playing for a new team to get in the groove. Jack is starting to look more and more comfortable especially on rebound control and his above average glove hand side as he flashed the leather twice when the game was in doubt. If you told me Campbell would be sporting a 15-8-1 record while not coming close too playing his best Hockey I would of been excited to see how our team fairs when he does get hot.
That’s on top of changing out his equipment this year. I think he’ll settle in and have a good career with the Oilers.
Skinner has been very good in a few of his Playoff runs in his younger years. Anyhow I still see Jack leading us to a Cup. Once Jack gets more comfortable and peaks come Playoff time Holland’s free agent signing of him will be legendary.
I just don’t see Jack “winning” us a Cup.
I can clearly see him losing us one though.
It’s the save percentage, for me… the Bad Guys just gotta keep shooting. It’s only a matter of time; One’s goin’ in on us, before we get one on them.
I googled this: IT’S A SCAM!!
Nora is the Pitts!
Is Berlin the first EBUG to ever play minutes for the Oilers? Most of the 1990’s & the early 2000’s I was only able to follow the Oil intermittently, so my memories are foggy regarding the team during that time period.
Technically he wasn’t the EBUG.
He was scheduled to be the EBUG (who sits in the stands and is eligible to dress for either team upon injury), however, when Skinner wasn’t able to back-up, he was signed to an ATO and was eligible to dress and play at the coach’s discretion (as he did).
Presumably another EBUG was found to sit in the stands and dress upon injury emergency.
Lol.
Pickard is the 3rd stringer. Berlin had to sign an ATO to play, so isn’t a contracted/salaried hockey player. Ultimately he had to back up Campbell on an Emergency basis.
The NAIT goaltender was actually the BUEBUG. Berlin was the EBUG.
Not actually an interesting debate….
I take it by lack of response to my question that Berlin IS the first ever Oiler
EBUG to get NHL minutes. I recall the UBC EBUG for the Oilers in Vancouver dressing in the last 10 years, and perhaps another U of A goalie in Edmonton (or an Oil King, I might be wrong here, due to the Forsberg waiver claim/ Grosnick driving up from LA).
Obviously this is less common than a solar eclipse.
Bruce? You are a goalie and astronomy expert, care to weigh in, lol.
With respect, this is not correct.
Berlin was not the technical EBUG last night – he was scheduled to be but plans changed when Skinner couldn’t go and he was signed an ATO but the Oilers.
The EBUG is available to either team and only dresses in the case of injury and only comes in to the came in the case of a second injury.
That was simply not Berlin’s role last night.
Its a non-matter but relevant to the question posted.
Perhaps your question was meant to be more general to include situations like last night where a non-roster/non-contracted/non-pro player is signed for essentially that night on an emergency basis – that’s a valid and fun discussion but its not limited to the technical EBUG.
What a thrill for Matt Berlin getting 2:45 in the nets of a regular season NHL game. And besides getting recognition on NHL.com other hockey stats sites show him as a bonafide NHL player as well. Hockeydb lists his name with the NHL logo beside it and only NHL players get a hockey-reference page.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/find_player.php
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/berlima01.html
Looking around, he has several playing connections to current or former members of the Oiler organization. Beside his relationship with Stuart Skinner in minor hockey, he also played with Kailer Yamamoto in Spokane, former Oiler Ethan Bear in Seattle, and future prospects Carter Savoie and Noah Philp with the Sherwood Park Crusaders and the U of A Golden Bears respectively.
Like the young lad said in his interview the Hockey World considering all things is small. With him signing a contract yesterday any idea how much he made? What if he practices with the team ever again?
Since it was an amateur tryout contract he made nothing. He had never played pro before so was apparently ineligible to sign a 1 day pro contract where he could’ve made some $.
This was from DNB’s great read in the Athletic last night: https://theathletic.com/4134702/2023/01/29/oilers-third-string-university-goalie/
Fulfilling a life long dream to play in the NHL …. Priceless.
Great rebound game last night.
The good. Draisaitl apparently read the press clippings about how awful he was last game because he was very good last night. I had goosebumps when the Golden bear goalie Berlin came in. I was hoping Chicago would get a few more shots for some more cheers from the crowd.
The Bad. Puljujarvi has worse hands than Steve Macintyre in front of the net. I like his hitting and neutral zone play but the guy can’t score. I’m convinced the Oilers need an upgrade at the deadline with his salary moving out. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Holloway in the last month but last night he took a step back with a couple of bad turnovers. He needs to get the cute back hand passes out of his game soon or he will be watching this years playoffs from the press box.
I remember Sorochan in 2007 but i forget some of the other U of A emergency backups the Oil have used over the year!
I like the Nick Bjustatd rumor. Make it happen Ken.
I posited pre-game that I would prefer Jesse Puljujarvi as the 2-way winger on that line, the defensive presence, over Derek Ryan.
I stick to that position but fully acknowledge that Derek Ryan had a great game by eye last night. I saw him fast, tenacious and engaged.
I do think that Ryan’s minutes need to be managed – we’ve seen him go hot for 4-5 games and earn increased minutes but he fades after. He’s 36 and, for me, he’s best used at 12 or so 5 on 5 minutes per game with some PK drizzled in.
Again: can’t fault the coaching decision last night – he earned the spot and has played well in it – its simply not a term solution in my opinion but a stop-gap.
Pujo had a shift with 97 last night midway through the 1st period. I think 71 was out there with them. Pujo killed both the sorties with poor puck play, in particular the second one, where he simply could not make a pass surrounded under pressure. this happened a couple of times last night. He really struggles with the puck when he has limited time or space.
Agreed that Pujo seems confused with the puck… unsure if he wants to immediately dish to McDavid or carry it a bit and instead holds onto it too long.
As a counter though, midway in the first he also tied up a hawks player after a rebound that would’ve very likely been a goal. If one of the big-2 had done it we’d see several replays but when it’s Pujo it isn’t shown. He does good things and bad, seems the bad plays just seem more prominently noted.
No, I see his good plays too and like the player, but unfortunately most of the good comes without the puck. While that’s still useful, there’s no way Holland can give an offensive black hole a $3M payday this summer.
If I was running the show I would have J.P on a shutdown line. He would be killing penalties and on the ice at the end of the game protecting the lead.