The Edmonton Oilers won the first game of the post All-Star break with a solid effort against the effective Detroit Red Wings. It was a good test, and there’s plenty of good arrows after a night in Michigan. One of the most impressive performances came from goaltender Jack Campbell. The month of February will be central to the Oilers season. It was a good start.
On the road to: DET, PHI, OTT, MTL (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
At home to: DET, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
On the road to: COL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
On the road to: PIT, CBJ (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: BOS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
February expected result: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
February actual result: 1-0-0, 2 points in one game
January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
Oilers in 2022-23: 29-18-4, 62 points in 51 games
As of this morning, the Oilers are on a 100-point pace and No. 3 in the Pacific Division in points-percentage. The team is 8-1-1 in the last 10. Youngsters Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and semi-youngster Vincent Desharnais (who did Shakespeare in the penalty box, surely a first) have shown enough to be considered part of the solution. It’s a season of wild plot shifts, the next major chapter will involve new characters introduced at the deadline.
SUMMARY
Connor McDavid saw a steady diet of the Dylan Larkin line and the Walman-Seider pairing and there was very little clean air. DRW played him tough, even on the PP, where he turned over a puck that led to the second Red Wings’ goal. Did some fine work on the successful third-period PP that put the game away.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored a nice power play goal and had an assist on Warren Foegele’s first goal (I thought Darnell Nurse earned a second assist). Nuge with Janmark and Kostin was the only consistent line on the night (8:28 toi, no goals, 29 percent goal share) but it wasn’t a strong evening for the trio.
Leon Draisaitl had a tough night, one takeaway and some promising sorties that fizzled. More than anyone, I think Draisaitl’s power-play work looked fine but was well defended. He saved a sure goal with the puck lying in the crease in tantalizing fashion before he used that giant sweep oar to clear it away.
Zach Hyman had two HDSC’s and drew a penalty, he was his usual enterprising self. Damn near ended himself in a dangerous goal-mouth collision, not sure the penalty he drew was an actual penalty, and he took a lot of punishment.
Mattias Janmark was quiet offensively, save for a promising semi-breakway, but he back passed to Nuge and it went nowhere. He’s solid defensively, slows everything down when near the puck. It’s effective. Solid on PK.
Evander Kane scored, had an assist, was distracting Red Wings all night and got his pound of flesh in a scrum with Tyler Bertuzzi. Effective. If he keeps taking penalties Kostin is going to have to stop taking them.
Warren Foegele had the look of a man who wanted Ken Holland to keep him on the roster. A fine game, he started on the top line with 97 and Hyman, but checked down and scored twice in a support role. He touched the puck a dozen times I swear. Helluva game.
Ryan McLeod scored a fantastic goal, patient and deadly. He was 7-2 in the faceoff circle, and put pucks deep all night. A terrific run for him in 2023.
Klim Kostin had two penalties and stood out in scrums, his smelly glove in the face game is top drawer. His offensive game has been in dry dock for six games. Needs to get going here.
Derek Ryan had a subtle but effective game, he’s versatile and can play anywhere up and down the lineup. There are players who become on-ice coaches due to their intelligent play. Ryan is such a player.
Dylan Holloway drew a penalty and had a HDSC. He competes in all areas, I think he’s coming on in a big way. Maybe he’ll score two in a game on this road trip. You can say that about a player who gets chances, but after a few years of not scoring people stop saying it. Such is the worry with Holloway.
Tyson Barrie had an assist on the Nuge goal, blocked a couple of shots and showed calm feet. He was being harassed (the entire league pressures the hell out of Edmonton’s defensemen and will do until it doesn’t work) but showed calm feet and good acumen by skating the puck to safety, turning back and doing a reset during a line change. I like Barrie’s game. Full stop.
Darnell Nurse went walkabout on the first GA and looked like a man back from vacation for the first portion of the game. After that, he was physical, effective and impressed with a few quality outlets. Played just two minutes five-on-five in the third period, the PK work (3:46 in the final frame) taking him out of the regular rotation. That’s called team depth, ladies.
Brett Kulak had an effective night despite (at times) looking like he lost his man. Kulak is the subject of much discussion by Oilers fans and media, his No. 2 LHD spot being the primary focus for procurement at the deadline. The fact everyone is having a damned difficult time finding a suitable and superior trade option reflects well on Mr. Kulak.
Cody Ceci was lost at sea on the first DRW goal, the positioning of both defensemen might make for a good video session. That area in front of the net needs to be defended. Otherwise, I thought Ceci was near to play but not in the play for much of the night. An “also in photo” evening if you will. He’s a good blue, probably left part of himself on the beach. It’ll be there in Philadelphia.
Philip Broberg had a fine game to my eye, two assists on a night when he was doing all kinds of good things. His pass to McLeod was exceptional. Broberg could always skate his way out of danger, but now is thinking his way out of it, too. Don’t be fooled by rookie wobble, Broberg is coming hard now and looking like a part of the solution in an area of need. Music!
Evan Bouchard had a pure chaos evening on a night where I was writing about moving him up in the lineup. As was the case with Nurse and Ceci, I think it was an evening of adjustment coming off a long break. Edmonton needs him to be his best, most confident self.
Vincent Desharnais had a fine night, he’s going to grab more playing time down the stretch. Had an assist, drew a penalty, made wild and funny gestures in the penalty box and punished Red Wings with abandon. He’s a giant and knows how to use it.
Jack Campbell had a strong game, stopping 31 of 33 and the two goals against (to my eye) were brilliant shots and no fault of the goaltender. Best stop of the night was on Jonatan Berggren, a former Tyler Wright pick who is a helluva young player. Owns a .911SP since December 15.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy show starts at 10, TSN 1260. We’ll be joined by Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal (Philip Broberg), Bruce Arthur from the Toronto Sun (Super Bowl) Dusty Linkins from 610 Sports Kansas City to talk Chiefs, an more! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soup soon!
Wanner was not in the lineup for Moose Jaw, reason unknown. The schneid continues unabated.
Bulging Twine
February 9, 2023 1:35 am
Re: Finding the next Devon Toews (Right shot version):
First we’d probably have to study the pre-Colorado Devon Toews.
One thing that immediately stands out is if you go to the WoodMoney’s for his last season with NYI his DFF% is far and away the best out of the top 6 on his team
You know who stands out a little bit with the WoodMoney’s?
Ethan friggin Bear!
hooo ya!
He’s playing easier competition relatively but his DFF% against elites is far outpacing his team mates.
Has he figured out how to handle a playoff intensity forecheck?
Cam Charron had been showing some clips of Bear’s deft, quick plays with the puck while under pressure.
I always thought that he was amazing in small spaces with the puck. A quick move here and an accurate pass. I don’t know what happened to him in the Chicago series where he struggled with the forecheck. And in the Winnipeg series where he made some really poor giveaway passes. I think that is what sealed his fate here though.
But guess what?
If you go to his last season with the Oilers and look up his WoodMoney’s against elites you see him far outpacing his Defence team mates in DFF%. With an incredible 59%
How about Filip Hronek? Would he be able to handle top pairing with nurse?
Munny 2.0
February 8, 2023 11:06 pm
This is not the time of year to go down to 21 players. Even if it is for only two weeks. I understand that it has to be done this way, and that other contenders have done it this way in the past, but I’m not comfortable with the notion. My fingers are crossed for a fortnight of smooth sailing.
Redbird62
February 8, 2023 8:31 pm
Luke Schenn is potentially having back troubles in the game against the Rangers tonight according to the Canuck broadcast crew. He is still playing, but between shifts he is standing on the bench looking uncomfortable.
Holland all but confirms that the plan to activate Yamo is to put two forwards on waivers for the 21 player roster:
When he’s ready to play, you must clear cap space. Are you anticipating making a hockey trade or dumping salary?
We’re going to have to move two players — two forwards — probably on waivers. I’ll reach out (to other teams) and see if there’s some interest in what I’m looking to do. We’ll see.
Holloway down doesn’t open up enough cap space though.
hunter1909
February 8, 2023 6:55 pm
Oilers 10 – 3 – 2 ever since they whipped Seattle and I want a 30 game season in a season until they play Boston in Boston which is the biggest game of the regular season.
Edmonton are on a 120 point pace in this mini universe, and in the real universe are suddenly being talked about as contenders to come out of the West.
Ok you made me say it out loud could we have the best tandem since Moog-Fuhr-Ranford days?
AsiaOil
February 8, 2023 6:47 pm
The hole is 1RD and as others have said, filling it moves Ceci down to the benefit of everyone. Obvious problem is there are no clear targets beside Karlsson (if he even wants to come). The Oilers become a monster when we can follow the STL model by getting/developing a guy who can play with Broberg against the toughs while allowing Nurse/Bouchard to kill the lesser lights. Could Desharnais become Parayko lite? Unlikely but who knows. What I do know is that I’d be trying this out as much as possible before the trade deadline
Nurse Bouchard/Barrie (lower tough minutes than ususal)
Kulak Ceci (higher tough minutes than ususal)
Broberg Desharnais
Holland is right to be careful. The defense is coming into focus and the last thing we need is a big move that flops, wastes assets, and screws up the next few seasons.
Optimism is like heroin
February 8, 2023 5:21 pm
Thinking about other additions Holland has brought in and I wonder if assets that are useful past this season are more likely. Chychrun has contract and another cheap add might be Duclair to round out the top 6.
Two defense optional players are the last thing this team needs.
Bulging Twine
February 8, 2023 5:12 pm
I personally don’t see a current or future 1RD in the organization.
Cap isn’t projected to go up much next year. A 1RD would cost plenty in free agency. We can pretty confidently rule out acquiring one via that method this summer. Maybe the next season, probably not.
We aren’t projected to pick high in the draft in the next few seasons making it very unlikely that we will be drafting a 1RD that will contribute at that level in the near term.
Connor is 26, Draisaitl is 27. These are good years.
I would pay a tonne for a 1 RD
(and I’d have to)
It may not be possible this year due to availability and cap. But I would offer a lot a LOT to make it happen.
I don’t begrudge Nurse for his contract but I do Holland. Despite past whatever that was a deal that should not have been done. He is a first pair D, but not worth that contract which limits the ability to even pay for another 1st pair D, let alone find that deal
Connor took less than market bcs he wanted to win. This is a public fact. Leon is far outperforming his even though it wasn’t a deal at the time. The Bruins have a culture of not paying top dollar, so that they can have a better team and the players have bought in
The Oilers have to return to this. Playing with Connor is worth something. If guys only want more money fair enough. I want players (who above bottom 6 and 3rd pair are millionaires) who want Cups more than money or warm winters anyway
Just 8 days ago you said he signed Chiasson because he couldn’t sign Connolly. If he had signed Connolly, that would have been $3 million plus spent on Connolly. Seems like he was spending money on a need for a winger. If it hadn’t been Connolly or Chiasson it could have been someone else. So Chiasson’s money likely wouldn’t have been available for a Nurse extension.
And while the Kassian contract used up cap space, you have no idea what Nurse’s camp would have been willing to extend for and how much the Oilers would have paid to extend him if they had the room.
The most you can say is the road could have been paved. You can hold that opinion, but you don’t know it’s a fact.
The most you can say is the road could have been paved. You can hold that opinion, but you don’t know it’s a fact.
You’re really working hard here. Holland dodged a bullet when Connolly chose Florida.
Holland signed Kassian to a 4 x $3.2 m on January 29th, 2020.
Chiasson’s $2.1 x2 ran until 2020-21.
Both of these contracts impeded Holland’s ability to do anything other than bridge Nurse. That’s a fact.
Kassian had 5 points in 27 games played in the first season after signing his contract. He was traded to Arizona for a trade down on a first and two draft picks (a second and a third) two seasons into his 4 year pact.
This season, which is the 3rd year of his 4 year contract, he has one goal and one point in 34 games.
Both of these contracts were contemporaneously stupid contracts for replacement level players. If you’re inclined to look back through the blog, you can see that I said that at the time they were signed.
Nurse’s bridge of $5.6 m was signed on February 10th, 2020.
We’ll call it two weeks after he inked Kassian to a 4-year contract.
Holland had $5.6 m right there. At that time, the market was a long way from the $9.25m that was established by the Jones contract.
I’m not sure what Nurse would have signed at, but there was a good $3m to $3.3m in wasted cap on those two contracts that could have been used to sign him long term.
Nurses $9.25m was signed on Aug 6, 2021 after the market shifted.
In what universe did Mikko earn an extension to $4.5MM AAV before Nurse was extended long term?
I just about lost my mind when ChiaPete made that move. Holland inherited that mess, so I’m less inclined to judge him as harshly for bridging Nurse again, while he concurrently cleaned up the mess he’d inherited.
Right before getting canned too. If there was anything worse than the Reinhart trade, it was Chia’s desperation moves. Strome and Koski. The latter one makes me wonder if there was a favour to an agent owed. A promise made.
but that is a smart draft strategy generally. Draft the scarce commodity. Otherwise it is too expensive to acquire via other methods.
We have an Eastern Amateur scout who appears to have a great eye for Defencemen.
Picked some nice RHD in later rounds – Wright should listen intently when that guy pounds the table for a D man he likes
There is an another Devon Toews out there. If I was the owner I’d be asking my GM where he is. The problem is not being able to find or recognize who is actually high end
Been a long time since Sather or Lowe’s lucky spring
I agree that a Ceci upgrade would be really nice, but there isn’t an obvious trade target for the deadline (outside of the unlikely Erik Karlsson deal).
I and others have mentioned Nick Jensen. He plays top pair with Orlov.
Woodguy mentioned Klingberg, but he’s really struggling this year. He was a hell of a transition d in his prime though.
Gostisbehere at double retention would be a very nice addition. He can play a ton of minutes and take some of the burden off Nurse. He can also play right sided. For example, he could slot in for Ceci when trailing or for ozone starts. He played right pair with Chychrun this year prior to his injury.
IMO Nurse looked good initially playing with Bear because of his outlet passes. I think teams started pressure Bear though since they knew that was the play.
Still, a Nurse pairing with a player who is a plus at outlets has appeal. Bouchard is the internal option, but I’m not sure he can play that comp.
Look at the Avs last year. They had Makar playing 27:04 per game and Toews playing 25:52.
Nurse was injured playing only 21:07 and a healthy Ceci played 20:17.
This year Nurse doesn’t seem quite the same pre-injury. The overall pairing doesn’t seem as good.
There’s not much quality on the free agent horizon for right shot d.
Nurse/Bouch played 180 minutes together vs. elites last season and, while they were 4-5 goals, their underlying numbers were very good included in 5.25 DFF%RC.
They are off the charts good against elites this season (and 1-0 goals) in a small sample of 30 minutes.
“The fact everyone is having a damned difficult time finding a suitable and superior trade option reflects well on Mr. Kulak.”
solid point
Redbird62
February 8, 2023 4:19 pm
Two more games to go before Yamamoto is eligible to be re-activated. Seems likely based on his practices and interviews, though as per usual, the Oilers never say for sure until the time comes – and I don’t blame them.
Assuming Yamamoto does get activated for the Habs game, besides the question of what moves do the Oilers have to make to get their roster cap compliant, there is also the question does Woody stick with the 11/7 skater configuration in the game line-up (assuming he doesn’t change it in any of the next 2 games)?
Does he stick with what has not lost in regulation in 9 games? Or, after the dust settles with the roster shuffling (assuming no trades – just players moved to the AHL), does he go back to 12/6 because he has another top 6 forward back in the line up, allowing him to create more balanced lines?
My guess would be that if they go11/7 in the next 2 games, win both or at least get 3 points, he sticks with the 11/7 for at least a game with Yamamoto back. Part of Woody’s thinking, that he has alluded to in his past pressers is that sometimes its about match ups. If he doesn’t believe the other team is strong down the middle, he is more comfortable with the 11, and mixing things up a fair bit with Leon and RNH moving up and down the top 2 lines. If the other team has potentially 3 strong centers, he might be inclined to go back to 12, with Connor, Leon and RNH all centering their own lines again (which is generally only possible when the top 7-8 forwards are healthy. I don’t think the next 4 games present that problem, but Woody may see it different. However, if no other line up/roster changes happen before the Rangers game, if he hasn’t gone to 12/6 by then, I expect he will in that game.
Of note, I have heard a couple of the respected Edmonton media mention that Yamamoto would be eligible to play on Saturday against the Sens. I haven’t gone back and re-checked my counting but my personal calculations led to Sunday eligibility.
In any event, Holland said Saturday today – he said he wasn’t sure if he’d be ready for that date but that’s the eligibility date.
Unless there is an injury to the D, I imagine they’ll be sticking with 11/7 when Yamo’s activated.
One of Jesse, Yamamoto, Foegele, Janmark, Ryan need to be out (waived and assigned/claimed or traded) unless they have a more major transaction for the 21-player roster (and Holland expressed we are likely back to that upon Yamo’s activation).
Lets just presume Jesse is out, for the purposes of the healthy scratch, for one game, if its based on recent results, I would go with, in order:
Twenty four days will have elapsed, but not ten games. Does the ALL Star break/game count as a game? I can see that, actually. I love this bit from Capfriendly in their FAQ:
LTIR is a very complicated aspect of the NHL operations and the vast majority of details are not specified in the CBA.
It is so NHL to keep their head office as the only people on the planet who know the actual rules. Just like offsides.
Fuge Udvar
February 8, 2023 3:07 pm
Does expected goals do fractional goals? Or is does it really predict that Nurse and Ceci should have gone 1-11 xgf-xga last night?
I checked NST and it is fractional goals but the xGF-xGA tell a much different story. For one, Nurse was at 25xG% but that’s beside the point. Expected goals just seems like a bad indicator for Dmen.
Expected goals weights chances based on shot location but that means the dmen are even more at the mercy of their forwards. Obviously the dmen effect their xGF by controlling play. But both Nurse and Ceci had better FF% and corsi% so it looks like they both got digned for their forwards shooting from bad spots in the Ozone. The dmen should own some of that but not much.
Primetime
February 8, 2023 2:10 pm
For those saying that we are playing well right now, so wait and see how the blue-line grows before spending assets trying to land a big fish on D (eg. Chychrun).
I guess it all depends on if your goal is to slowly build a decent team, or if it is to capitalize on the opportunity to win the Cup RIGHT NOW.
Obviously nothing is guaranteed but remember, Avalanche were already far and away the best team in the west last year and went out and got Josh Manson at the deadline. It wasn’t the only thing that help them win but it was significant.
We are on a nice run against the worst teams in the league and some feel we should just play this hand, unlike the Avs who went for the win. I disagree…
1) It starts at the beginning. This isn’t a decent team. Its one of the best teams in the NHL. Right now, today. You can go all the way to the beginning of the season or we can shorten the timeframe. No matter how you look at it the Oilers are very good and are likely to climb higher quite quickly. In a week the Oilers will be tied for the Pacific Division lead, will have a goal differential in the top five, will be on pace for 105 points, have a historically good PP, and four guys on pace for 100 points. I mean come on that’s pretty sweet!
2) From that starting point you have a 3rd of your team at or under the age of 25 and whom aside from Yamo and JP will have played less than three NHL seasons each. Most of whom are under team control for low pay in a flat cap world. You’ve drafted and developed all of them.
Speaking on behalf of the keep calm and build on folks I see tremendous upside this season, this playoffs, next season and the season after that with this group of people. I can see seasons of utter domination with the current configuration. And if you re-sign Leon and McD it could last for a dozen years.
For a Big Swing this Year here is what concerns me with some of the deadline trade deals floated.
I think there are risks to casting off young players for a singular run now. Chychrun will need a new shiny contract and hit UFA long before Bouch, Bro, Hollywood or Bourgault. There is no guarantee you keep him as a UFA (cough Larsson cough). Older vets nearing UFA all come with this risk. Having prospects push to the top and land feature roles is what made the Hawks, Pens and Tampa lethal for a decade.
I think there are risks to sending out too many NHL forwards in order to fit a defenseman when forward depth is what held you back in November and early December. You trade or wave a combo of Ryan, Janmark, Foggy, Yamo, JP and you’re an injury away from Klim having to play feature minutes.
After weighing these factors I prefer small deals for NHL depth. Its dollar in dollar out so there’s a chance to make a decent upgrade for a forward if one of JP or Foggy is heading away. A forward and a dman. Get one of each. You need to keep testing and building the young players on your team and they are showing progress. Why derail a very successful internal experiment so far?
I agree any move that considerably improves chances of true contention, within the remaining window of mcdrai’s contracts, should be strongly considered.
1. The obvious reasons
2. The secondary benefit of solid playoff runs opening up possibility of ufa’s that have banked well considering a Cap friendly shirt deal to chase Stanley 1 more round
3. Better overall negotiating any contracts for same reason
4. Specifically this year and next I firmly believe a market advantage in play with cap restrained. Any move that might better ensure running full roster of nhl calibre for remainder of this season and next has added intrinsic value.
Honestly, since I suggested it:
Nyquist and garikov for klef/Smith ltir, a foegle/kulak contract (to offset incoming garikov contract) and whatever within reason required to make deal palatable is my #1 with a bullet.
Cap circumvention if nyquist activated come playoffs with garikov holding down #2 lhd and some more walking around money in offseason seems ideal to me.
That or chychrun/bjugstad are two deals I can see justifiable to pay for this year.
I don’t understand the desire to move the Klefbom/Smith contracts is acquiring Nyquist.
There is no cap benefit to that and, in fact, depending on timing/structuring, etc. it could serve to reduce cap space if it momentarily takes the team out of LTIR and then back in to it (with the amount of LTIR reserves re-calculated with potentially some cap space, reducing them).
If nyquist ends up ready before season end was thinking don’t really want to be in excess ltir might be benefit of accrued space helping ability to carry larger roster….but brain now uncertain logical I’ll admit.
Just was trying to best account if thst was possible.
The Avalanche traded a second round prospect and a second round pick for Manson (with Anaheim retaining half the salary). That is light years away from what the ask is for Chychrun. No one considered Manson a big fish.
Manson started the playoffs as the petite Girard’s physical defensive partner. Once Girard went down, Manson was playing mostly 3rd pair with Jack Johnson. He was an important addition, but he was no go for it trade. They just wanted size and grit from a stable defender to go with all there smaller defenders. He is solidly on their 3rd pair this season when he is healthy.
OriginalPouzar
February 8, 2023 1:59 pm
Holland was on Rishaug’s podcast with LeBrun and Mike Johnson and here is a summary (I haven’t done the last few minutes as I have to run for a conference call now):
1) what do you like most about what’s changed in your group recently: Since X-mas we are 11-3-2. In 11 of those 16 games we’ve given up 2 or less in regulation. That gives you an opportunity to put something together. With PP being number 1 in league and with Connor and Leon, you are going to get some goals. So, our commitment to defence and keeping the puck out of our net. We got healthy. We were down 4 of top 9 forwards and, in a cap world its tough to be overly deep. Kane injury gave us some cap space and ability to bring up Kostin//Janmark.
2) Johnson asked about tending and Campbell getting his game together and asked if Kenny spoke to him. I only talked to him a few times. Quite often I find when playrers sign big contracts and go some place new there is pressure. He was a career .912 goaltender. Jack wasn’t on top of him game but the team was given up too many Grade As. Jack has got comfortable. He’s got a great relationship with our goalie coach. He’s found the mental sweet spot.
3) LeBrun talked about how tight the Pacific is and other GMs are kind of wanting to get through the next few weeks before making moves. I go historically. History says most moves will happen in the last few days and deadline day. There is a reason there are shows right up to the deadline. March 1, 2 and 3 is when most deals will happen. Because league is so tight there are lots of teams who aren’t sure if they are buyers or sellers and the market has to show itself. If you are 2-3 weeks in advance and are a seller, you ask for a high price. As the deadline approaches, you find the price point. I’ve talked to many many many GMs recently. We are in LTIR with the Klefbom injury. When Yamo gets activated we’ll probably be back to that 21 player roster. We are dollar in and dollar out. That makes it more difficult but certainly I’m working the phones and certainly I’d like to find a little more or something that can impact our team. We’ll see.
4) Rishaug asks specifically about Chychrun but then goes for bigger picture and asks if he wants a pure defensive d-man or a Chychrun type skillset? I would say, I’m watching right now. We have two great stories on the backend since X-mas. Phil Broberg is a real good story. Plus 10 in 24 games and 21 years of age. I’ve been around a long time and understand playoff experience vs. a young player that’s never been. Vinny D. has been a good story for us. 6’7 and 6’3 – they give us length. Phil can skate, gives us mobility. We’ve been going 11/7. I’ve been talking to GMs and its my job to know what’s out there. Irregardless of names, we are dollar in and dollar out. If we want to bring in a big cap hit, we’ll have to do some real gymnastics. LTIR!!!!! Speaks about accruing cap space and pro rating contracts and LTIR not allowing for this and makes it more difficult to make trades. Spoke about 2 or less given up in 11 of last 16. Would I like to do something? Yes, I’d like to. Am I convinced I’ll do something? We’ll have to see. I’m working the phones.
5) M. Johnson talked about how open the West is and if the opportunity along with value deals on McDavid/Drai is factored in. I’ve been around a long time Mike, there are no guarantees. 16 presidents trophy winners. 2 have won the cup. They went in to playoffs as favourites and two one. You have to go in and play your best hockey. Going to final four last year and the road to it (and the experience) and losing to the eventual champs (who built for 3-4 years to the cup)….. you have to play a certain style. The more times you are in the playoffs, the more playoff games you play – the better understanding for the individual and for the team. Certainly, when trades are made, you are trying to up the odds – with depth and/or an impact player. You need everyone to play their best over a two-month period. I weight all that. I understand we have lots of players in the primes of their careers. I feel good in a sense that I think we build up depth. Goal differential when 97/29 is off the ice has been improved big time over the years. We are building. Its a process. You need to keep building and building and need multiple opportunities. Can’t just say this is the one opportunity and throw the kitchen sink at it and in September start all over again. I’ve got to have a feeling for when the time is right and when the opportunity is right to impact the team. Spoke about his deadlines as an Oiler and what he’s done (AA, Kulak, Brassard). In the two years, I’ve made deals. I’m hoping to make a deal but I can’t predict the future. Its got to happen right. Its got to work.
6) LeBrun spoke more about weight opportunity now (with height of McDavid/Drai) vs.building for the long term. Again, there is no magic done or pixie dust to throw at this thing – the one trade that will “win the Cup”. Certainly the right trade can help (i.e. Larry Murphy, Brad Stuart examples – and cited Colorado deals from last year). The salary cap in my mind, with the cap not moving materially recently – until it starts to move like normal – that’s going to have an impact on the off-season and the trade deadline. When the season opened, we had 21 players and 9 made $1.125MM or less. You need home grown players who play for cheap. Need to draft and develop – that needs to be a key component to the team’s success. Its a balancing act. I’m working the phones. I’m going to continue watching our team and look for a player that can have a positive impact via a depth or more of a top type of a guy. Sometimes I’ve been able to do it and sometimes I haven’t been able to.
7) Rishaug asks about Jesse and Yamamoto coming back and if anything is close and if that deal finally comes to fruition. I’ve got to make some decisions. Yamo is eligible to come off on Sat for Ottawa. Not sure if he’ll be quire there but we’ll see. If no-one else goes on LTIR, I’ve got some big decisions to make. All the bottom of the roster players will be in that decision. They all can’t stay. At the beginning of the year it was Janmark. Jesse was a healthy scratch last night and I’ve got some tough decisions to make.
8) MJ asked about depth and how Holland feels. I feel good. References the 97/29 off number. References how great McLeod is playing. Kostin has been a good story. Janmark is a pro – been around a long time and played on good teams in the playoffs. Got to get Yamamoto back and make some decisions about who will be on the team. Holloway is a 1st round pick and adds speed and youth. Our bottom six is as good as its been since I got here. Those players don’t make alot of money and are really valuable. If they can contribute, that helps you be a better team. Holloway is home grown. McLeod is home grown. Jesse down there is home grown. I’ve traded away lots of draft picks (2 2nds for AA, picks for Lucic, picks for Kulak). I know where the players are at and I’m trying to give them a boost but, at the same time, look at the age of our players – they are not one-offs. We will have these players back and will have the same opportunity next year. That’s what I’m balancing. Trying to be a playoff team year after year after year after year – that’s part of the formula of winning a Stanley cup. Broberg is 21 and Holloway is 21 – give them another 30 games and you are doubling their NHL games. You need those players to be part of the solution.
Parsing between the lines here, but I think we can see a preference or two.
–acquisition ideally has playoff experience
–any big deal will mean dollars in,dollars out, ie a roster player going the other way and he doesn’t sound too comfortable with this idea. Would need to be a perfect fit coming in.
–He values productive youth, although he didn’t mention Boosh when talking homegrown. I’m leery of reading too much into that specific omission, but it seems unlikely he will trade what he deems to be any present or future value contracts.
The first two points eliminate Chychrun (and you never know, maybe Holland was negotiating via the media), as ARI to this point has allegedly been unwilling to accept a contract back on Chychrun.
Parsing between the lines here, but I think we can see a preference or two.
I’d add “Certainly, when trades are made, you are trying to up the odds – with depth and/or an impact player.”
Seems clear the value of an impact addition isn’t lost on him, so if the cost/benefit and cap can work, likely without a (potential) ‘value contract’ headed out, we may well see a significant add.
He mentioned bigger deals a couple of times in this spate of interviews so I’d agree a big splash is definitely possible, but he was also clear on my second point above… it will have to be dollar in and dollar out.
I just think that in the right scenario it’s possible a couple of players head out to make space for a bigger addition, though I agree that won’t be done lightly.
I can see this type of thing working out using the Puljujarvi contract.
Say Jesse in a deal for Ryan O’Reilly 50% retained with a 3rd team taking a 7th rounder to retain an additional 25%, which brings his cap hit down to $1.875M. Having Puljujarvi’s contract heading the other way means the Oilers save $1.125M. That alleviates the pressure from Yamamoto’s return, probably only Shore needs to be sent out.
Yes, something like that could work for sure. You’re correct that O’Reilly with double retention for Puljujarvi would allow the Oilers to waive Shore and run a compliant 22-man roster (13F/7D).
I wasn’t even counting Shore in my original thought though. I meant both Foegele and Puljujarvi could be sent out for a higher end forward. Or Kulak and one of the forwards for a higher end D. That would allow the Oilers to take on as much as $4.5M for one player (with a 21-man roster).
It’s not likely we see it happen, but that allows Holland to be in the conversation for nearly any addition out there (when you take retention into account).
I’ve been around a long time Mike, there are no guarantees. 16 presidents trophy winners. 2 have won the cup. They went in to playoffs as favourites and two one. You have to go in and play your best hockey. Going to final four last year and the road to it (and the experience) and losing to the eventual champs (who built for 3-4 years to the cup)….. you have to play a certain style. The more times you are in the playoffs, the more playoff games you play
This suggests to me that Kenny is thinking long-term, and he won’t trade away big futures for pending UFAs. And you know, he might be right. When only 50% of the teams qualify, there are few weak teams in the playoffs, and there’s a lot of luck/chance involved, no matter how strong your team is that year. (Look at Florida last year, going all in, and now they don’t have a first-rounder for three years.) I think Kenny will take the risk on having a 10-year window (i.e. McDrai sign here again) rather than going all-in for a 3-year (or 1-year) window.
My guess is that he trades a 2023 2nd rounder for a depth D, and I’d probably support that. If he trades the 2023 1st rounder and/or a real prospect, I suspect it’s for a longer-term contract (e.g. Chychrun).
Further to luck/chance:
-the Ovechkin Caps waited about a decade to get a Cup
-the Crosby Pens won one early, then waited another decade
-the Stamkos/Hedman Lightning waited about a decade
-even the Brady-Belichick Patriots went a decade between Super Bowls
Kenny has seen dominant Red Wing teams lose to weaker teams in the first round. Like losing to us in 2006! I bet he, too, still remembers the Hemsky goal.
Thank you OP, really appreciate posting this for all who didn’t listen.
Munny 2.0
February 8, 2023 12:53 pm
Bob to Spec: “After this past month and the D call-ups, do the Oilers need to add a 2nd pairing Dman?”
Spec: “If the Oilers were to add a Chychrun, Broberg would be in Bako and I don’t want that guy out of the line-up. I’m not sure I want Desharnais out of the line-up. they will likely add two players, one a decent player, the other a depth player. Two weeks ago I would’ve said the big spend would be 2LD, now I’m thinking more like 3/4C.”
Hmm, I understand Bob and Spec’s line of thinking here, but I think it’s unwise. Undoubtedly, Broberg and Desharnais have played great recently, and so has Bouchard. All within the last 9 or so game stretch, which not coincidentally, has mostly occurred against weaker competition.
That isn’t to disqualify their excellent play, but I think they both should acknowledge that judging these young D based off of softer minutes, against bottom half teams likely isn’t indicative of how they will fare in the heat of a 7 game series against quality opposition who can and will exploit their weaknesses.
I just think it is silly to think, “problem solved” in February, when we know for sure that the hockey starting in mid April is several levels higher. Improve now, in whatever way you can, because you’ll regret not doing so when you lose a D to injury and/or have another one falter under the pressure.
Great points.
A bit of history to re-enforce what you’re saying:
2017 playoffs – Sekera gets hurt in game 5. Oilers dress Griffin Reinhart for pivotal games 6 and 7.
2022 playoffs – Nurse gets injured right at the tail end of the regular season. Keith and Kulak provided good cover, but Oilers were at least one top-4 Dman short in the Colorado series.
You need depth. And not Luke Schenn / Jake Walman depth. You need highly-skilled top-4 depth.
I’m of two minds:
1) The team at present construction is very good. There are no weak links. Don’t expend resources except to add a depth piece.
2) The team is presently very good. If you’re going to bother to add a player, have it be an elite player who can push us to the SCF.
I think you can upgrade on Kulak while avoiding taking away minutes from Broberg. I also think Jacob Chyckrun might be an improvement on Tyson Barrie as a pp quarterback.
It’s a controversial opinion, but I believe a really talented shooter like Chyckrun could offer another dimension to the powerplay.
Perhaps you roll out different looks to pp1 with Barrie and Chyckrun alternating (not a bad idea if you play an opponent 6 or 7 games straight), and would also allow you to move on from Barrie in the offseason with a powerplay ace in the fold.
Any time Mark Spector makes a decision based on 2 weeks of evidence, a betting man should do the exact opposite.
EDM is of course cap-strapped. I see 3 needs (beyond the goaltending holding up):
-Top 4 D
-Finishing winger for 97
-Defensively conscious winger for 29 (no more Derek Ryan)
If they can achieve 1-2 of those with some cap gymnastics, there should be serious confidence in this team. Dallas is the beast in the West this year, and they are no 2022 Avalanche.
I don’t think I’ll ever understand the reasoning behind not adding a player — say Chychrun — because it will block a younger player next, or the following year.
Stanley Cup calibre teams are deep in every possible position. Defenders, especially, get hurt so you can’t assume the top six at the start of the playoffs will be there at the end. Adding someone who can step into the second pair, push Kulak down, and provide support to Nurse would be invaluable in a playoff run.
The salary cap is an issue. The cost of acquisition is an issue. But, making it harder for Broberg to move up the roster next year isn’t an issue.
If Broberg forces the issue and gives the Oilers no choice but to move him up then you look at trading a defender from a position of strength.
Munny 2.0
February 8, 2023 12:38 pm
Bouchard played very little in the 3rd period last night. Clearly Manwood was seeing what we were all seeing.
Desharnais started the game with Kulak and then Boosh as his partner but by the second half of the game was firmly beside Bromeester (h/t) for the duration of the match.
Vinnie got turnstiled a couple of times himself. Once right before he scored Foegele’s second goal and also the one that led to the brouhaha that found him and Kostin in the box after the play.
But Boosh was, as LT put it above, pure chaos last night. Hopefully he gets it back together for the Philly game.
This is why I chafe at any pronouncement of Bouchard being ready to play 1RD. He’s been far too inconsistent from one night to the next to rely on him for that. I’m not convinced his motor goes hard enough to be relied on as a 2LD this season either.
He’s perfect where he is next to Broberg, with Deslauriers dressed as the 7th D to pick up the slack when Bouchard’s head is not in the game.
Bouch gets a lot of flack for a guy who’s only played 169 NHL games. I wanted him benched at one point early in the year but LT was right about young players needing reps.
I agree that he hasn’t earned a Klefbom contract. And that’s a good thing. In the summer his incoming Klef contract meant someone else was getting shipped out. Bouch around Kulak money for two years is glorious.
Reja
February 8, 2023 12:28 pm
You need a full team top to bottom I’m especially loving the Kostin Nuge Yanmark line. It should be Jesse instead of Yanmark but Jesse just doesn’t have the goods to fit in with the Oilers. Kostin opens up ice for Yanmark and Nuge who are a real threat to score. I hope Jesse lands in Columbus or Carolina I think he’ll recover some of his passion playing with Laine or Aho.
I’m late to the party LT but just wanted to say I enjoyed the post the other day reminiscing about past posters on this wonderful blog. It’s been several years since I last posted (and I wasn’t a frequent poster anyway) but never stopped reading and enjoying the discourse. Have been reading since around 2009 I believe.
Those who remember me may recall I was supposed to travel from Australia to Canada in March 2020 for the first time on a once-in-a-lifetime trip with my girlfriend. Had tickets to see the Oilers play twice in EDM. Well we arrived mid-March only for the entire country to shut down due to COVID… bummer! We had only arrived a day or two earlier, we had expected the holiday to be cut short but not that quickly. We decided to push it as long as we could before hopping on a flight home – managed to spend a few days in Calgary (including the quietest Paddy’s Day we’ve ever had in an almost empty Irish bar, but still fun!) and then made it to Banff for 5 days where it was a ghost town. I believe we were the last guests left at our resort, but it was eerily beautiful.
Long story short, I asked the gf to marry me on top of a mountain, she said yes, we flew home and into self-quarantine for 2 weeks, we got married last August, and now we’re coming back to Canada next month to finish what we started – tix to the OTT. And DAL games in EDM! Then onto Jasper for a few days. Beyond excited.
If anyone has any tips/recommendations for EDM it would be much appreciated, we’re staying right in downtown just off Jasper Ave (104 St NW). Places to eat and drink, things to do during the day etc. Would love to go to elk island but not sure if that’s doable without our own transport, and understand it may not be the best time of year. We’re mid-30s so not young but still clinging to whatever youth we have left!
It might be a little boring, but the Royal Alberta Museum is right beside the rink. I went there with my kids over Christmas and we really enjoyed it! There are some cool photo ops and honestly there is a ton to see in there! They have a bug exhibit – might not be that exciting to Aussies but it’s all live bugs!
Just thinking the weather might be mixed so that’s a good indoor activity that’s close to where you are staying. Museums might not be that cool but I think RAM is worth visiting.
Good to hear from you, Chris, & congrats on the nuptials.
If you go to RAM, make sure you stop to take in Manitou Asinîy, the Manitou Stone, a 145 kg meteorite which is considered sacred by Indigenous peoples. It’s in a special chamber outside RAM with no admission charged, but the small detour is well worth it. Soon to be repatriated to its original landing spot, but still at RAM for now.
Thanks Bruce! Great, we’ll definitely check that out!
I was hoping you’d comment actually – my wife is desperate to see the aurora borealis, we’ll be in Jasper for the last week of March so hoping we’ll get to see it but understand it’s not a given. Any tips in this regard?
Muttart Conservatory in the river valley,short bus ride from downtown. I really enjoyed Kelly’s pub. Just a few blocks from Rogers, beef dip is phenomenal. Have fun! 👍
Thanks, will check that out for sure! Kelly’s is actually just a couple of doors up from where we’re staying so that was already on our list, good to know it’s worth checking out. My wife is Irish so of course wherever we go we have to find an Irish pub…
Grindstone theater is a cool little spot. Weekend usually dj’s setup in theater part later but lots of interesting funny stuff going on (plays, comedy troops, improv, weird al karaoke contests etc.
By where you are staying there’s electric sign street museum and some higher end good bars around it.
I think by arena there should also be ice maze up still depending if it stays warm or not.
Speaking of music, see if there are any shows at the Starlite Room- it’s a long time, iconic venue in Edmonton. Might be a younger crowd depending on the act but it’s a really cool place, one of the best spots to see a band in Edmonton (IMO). I am a little out of the loop on the Edmonton music scene though so feel free to rebut Edmontonians.
There are a lot of good restaurants on 104. Seoul Fried Chicken for something fast/cheaper, Sabor (Portugese/Spanish), Bundok and Black Pearl (Seafood), Bistro Praha (Central European) and Woodwork (cocktails) are all good. If you’re going to Whyte Ave and like BBQ, Meat and it’s adjoining restaurants are worth the visit. I second the Museum idea and if you have a chance to check out a concert at the Winspear it’s acoustics are world class.
For a pregame meal, you can’t go wrong with Kelly’s Pub or the Canadian Ice House in the Ice District as well. Both will be packed with hardcore Oilers fans getting ready for the game! If it’s still cold enough, you may even be able to catch a quick skate at the Ice District plaza as well, which under the lights is a neat experience.
If you’re in Jasper for that Saturday, I recommend stopping in at the bar at the Athabasca Hotel to catch the Oilers game against the Kraken at 2:00. Great drinks, play some pool, and watch the Oilers on the projector. That’s also a great little bar later on at night too, especially if there is live music next door.
Sorry, one last recommendation. I’d really recommend Maligne Canyon in Jasper as well. If you can, rent some ice cleats to go over your shoes. It’s a gorgeous hike down into the canyon, only a few mins outside of Jasper, and you’ll likely see some ice climbers if the weather is right.
If you’re staying on 104 St., and you like wine, you may want to check out the Tzin wine bar. Cozy and charming little place. I think they may have tapas as well.
I highly recommend Uccelino. Simple Italian dishes. It is a great date spot. A bit pricey but easily one of the best restaurants in Edmonton. It is conveniently located just off 104th and Jasper.
Woodwork is also close and has great cocktails and whisky.
For breakfast, OEB is downtown and quite good. Pip is probably better and located on whyte ave, which is a fun neighbourhood to check out. It is the university/arts area of the city. Many pubs and restaurants.
Victoria park has a great skating rink, and I think they rent skates. It is walkable (depending on your fitness level) or a short uber from downtown.
Finally, Plaza bowl is a retro bowling alley just north of downtown, serving a nice assortment of local beers.
I have not lived in Edmonton for 38 years so I have no recommendations but these kid of posts and the replies is why I really like this place. This is a community!
Scungilli Slushy
February 8, 2023 12:21 pm
I think it’s fair to say these Oilers play traditional Oiler hockey, loose and fast as the glory guys at Goose Loonies
Methinks they are needing their Muckler Moment, when they decide that they actually have to play some defence and follow a structure
If the 80’s guys couldn’t just outscore everything to beat the Islanders, I don’t think the current guys can either, despite individual brilliance
The start of the year was high octane offensive. Poor defence. They recognize this and they go all defensiveness for a month.It’s not a strength but you could see both coach and players trying to get better defensively.
Last night I felt the outcome of the game was never in jeopardy. However, your points on process are valid, they still have improvement needed.
yesterday’s improvement was about taking care of your teammate. Watching for the dirty plays, the scrums, the BS. It was a form of team building and all players are affected by this.
As we see the pendulum swing back and forth, skill to grit, offence to defence, 5×5 play and special teams, sooner or later that pendulum will land in the Center on a well rounded team and team game.
I think for the last two months of last year and the past month this season, Woodcroft has clearly given them their “Muckler moment.” Sadly they had to re-learn it at the beginning of this season, but clearly the team knows how they have to play to win consistently.
Can’t say I agree that that Oilers aren’t improving their focus on reducing goals against. Sure there are going to be slips occasionally but overall as the season has progressed they are making big strides. Since the Christmas break, a stretch of 16 games, the Oilers key defensive metrics 5 on 5 are as follows:
GA/60: 2.18 – 7th lowest
xGA/60: 2.51 – 5th lowest
SCA/60: 26.8 – 6th lowest
HDCA/60 9.88 – Lowest in the league
With a full off season to prepare combined with new tenders and some other new personnel, Woody implemented a lot more changes in the Oilers game plan than he was able to on the fly mid last season. Combined with a lot of forward injuries, it took the Oiler till about Christmas to get more comfortable with the changes.
In fact a lot of these defensive metrics look similar all the was back to December 1, but a combination of self-inflicted wounds and the Oilers perhaps not as good yet at translating that better defense into offense (Oilers are scoring almost a goal per 60 more at 5 on 5 since the Christmas break than they did from Dec 1 to Dec 25) led to more inconsistent results. A pk at 84.3% since Christmas (including the 4 against by LA) compared to 71% for the December games prior to Christmas helps too and is another sign of a team focusing on reducing goals against.
It is a work on progress and Woody will continue to have the make improvements or tweaks but it seems to me, the players generally get it.
The Oilers have allowed 2 or less goals in regulation in 11 out of the last 16 games.
With respect, in my opinion, you are making WAY too many determinations based off of a single game after a 10-day break and discounting completely the team’s overall play in the last month, shit, 6 weeks.
OriginalPouzar
February 8, 2023 12:19 pm
Interesting to see Barrie lead the D-group in TOI. I had spoken before and during the break that his minutes were down materially and that I think he had been playing injured (he missed a few practices about a month ago as well). Perhaps the 10 days off did him a world of good.
We spoke before the game last night about getting Broberg some higher comp minutes and we saw that a bit last night. He played mostly against the Copp, Bergeen, Rasmusen, Perron – the middle six.
Lots of talk about Nurse/Ceci getting caved by the Bertuzzi/Larkin line and, well, they did. It wasn’t just them though – the entire top of the roster got caved by that line: McDavid, Drai, Kane, etc.
I don’t disagree with many that Nurse/Ceci is having its fair share of struggles. Numbers only tell us so much but numbers show us Nurse MUCH better without Ceci for a long stretch now.
Nurse has some struggle plays last night. Nurse also had 5-6-7 very very good physical, defensive and offensive plays last night.
Bertuzzi and Larken also got pushed around and punished last night. Earlier this season there would have been no push back but last night showed this team starting to play like a team. Nurse on Bertuzzi in the crease was golden!
winchester
February 8, 2023 12:13 pm
I loved the Oilers game last night.
Detroit roiled out a game plan that has defeated Oilers in the past. Aggressively neutralize Connor and scrum it up to get The soul off their game.
That game plan can now be countered.
First, Kane is the best in the league at what he does. And others follow. Big Vince, Kostin, Nurse, even Kulak wanted a piece.
The push them around game plan was not effective.
Second, depth scoring. Wow
Finally, goaltending covered up for mistakes.
I think the Oilers just got better, well rounded, more tools. Looking good.
Kostin certainly didn’t have his best game last night during the play, but during a post whistle scrum when he got in Hronek’s face, who had been a belligerent pest all night, Hronek wanted no part of him. Kudos to him for maintaining control in that situation and not taking a penalty.
And as for the 2 penalties he did get charged for, I have no idea how Kostin ended up in the penalty box on the Sundqvist hook, it was either Janmark or Broberg in the vicinity, and the cross-checking penalty on Fabbri was as weak as as they come (Chelios expressed his disbelief on that call as well).
Bob S on the radio was flabbergasted by that super weak cross-checking call as well. I saw the replay on TV later – he hardly touched him. The ref who called it was pretty far away. Also, the penalty that Hyman drew was pretty questionable as well.
Messier and Hyman discussed the penalty and initially wondered if Hyman didn’t just fall too. Then they realized the call wasn’t for a trip or the stick on the leg, but that Rasmussen actually hooked Hyman on the hands as he was going by (he went for the stick lift but got him on the gloves), which caused Hyman to lose the puck before he fell. That seems to be one of the most called penalties this season.
Correction, Messier and Chelios, discussed the penalty on Hyman,
Reja
February 8, 2023 12:11 pm
Would it not be better matchups if we finish 2nd or 3rd and play the teams in our division in the first round. The west is going to be a fantastic photo finish if it comes down to ties we have the edge. Wouldn’t it be funny if Calgary ties say L.A and Seattle but is eliminated because of the Gary point.
LMHF#1
February 8, 2023 12:06 pm
I often find myself wondering whether Ryan McLeod has more value as a 3C who can eat minutes, or moved up to a top six wing position.
A lot depends on tactics, but I think I’d rather deploy him with either 97 or 29 and move 93 to being distinctly the 3C. Tough call though.
One thing’s for sure – I enjoy having too many centers and not enough minutes for Holloway compared to hoping Ryan Smyth can somehow learn to play C. Remember those awful days? * shudder *
I just made the sound Sideshow Bob makes after stepping on a rake…
Munny 2.0
February 8, 2023 12:00 pm
Over the last eleven games the Oil have extended their lead on the Avs by three points and have picked up four points on the Krak, six on the Kings, and ten points on the Kniggits. They also gained big ground on the Stars, Jets and Wild.
Give me another month like the last one, please, Sir.
And just to beat HH to the punch, Dom’s model at the Athletic now has the Oil edging out Seattle for top spot in Pacific… would play the fLames… can’t we just rush to the finish???
Long story and probably boring for most here but we bought a duplex with our son & his fiance. Had to be like that since agricultural land in B.C. is heavily protected with restrictions on 2nd houses and how large they can be.
He is going to be doing whatever it is he is going to do with the land. That said the side we took was the one the previous owner used as a rental so we pretty much gutted it and put it back together. Close to finished now but you are right. I am too old for this anymore.
We just decided that it was time to get out of the cities. Can’t see them getting better any time soon.
You’ve bounced around a bit these past couple years so it is great to hear you’ve settled on a location and are near family and away from our new urban madness. All the best, DEFMN. You were missed these past months (largely because all my philosophy jokes fell on deaf ears, lol).
I doubt it – he’s end of the bench filler at this point in the NHL. You gotta be “good in the room” and “not a distraction” if you’re only playing 5-10 minutes a night in the show. Otherwise, you wander the hinterlands of European hockey leagues.
He’s 26 now … his ship has sailed (off to Europe).
Those definitely aren’t your grampa’s Red Wings, are they? Yzerman teams… they’re cooking with Crisco… greasy as all hell. Like there’s 20 Corey Perrys out there. Suter in particular is annoying.
I think we all should have learned last night the truth on Walman, though. Whenever he’s on the ice, he’s the weakest Red Wing out there. He plays with Seider, who is a tremendous player and together they see a lot of the Red Wing scoring lines. He’s a classic case of zoomed numbers.
But if you look at the scoring chances they allowed, Walman is usually the culprit, wandering away from the player in the crease a la Bouchard to
attack a player in a less dangerous position. The Foegele chance net-side in the 3rd that he could’ve cashed for the hattrick was all on Walman, for example. I have to say I found it pretty amusing that after last night the calls for Walman as a trade target increased.
I think we all should have learned last night the truth on Walman, though. Whenever he’s on the ice, he’s the weakest Red Wing out there. He plays with Seider, who is a tremendous player and together they see a lot of the Red Wing scoring lines. He’s a classic case of zoomed numbers.
The numbers, over a larger sample size than one game, tell a different story.
That’s not even close to a full story. On ice metrics are driven by FIVE man units, largely the Fs. for eg, Walman is under 50% without either Seider or Larkin. With Larkin and without Seider, about a third of his without Seider number, he’s 66.53%.
And that’s if you can get me to agree that five man possession stats indicate the defensive prowess of one of the players on the ice. Which you can’t 🙂 . It’s a fifteen year old debate now and I know which side of the fence I stand on.
I have no idea what metrics you have in your head, or believe indicates defensive success… and I’m not going to sit here and guess at your rhetorical flourishes.
I do know that the defenseman I saw last night did not look like a defensive stalwart, by any stretch, and considering he looked the poorest player on the ice out of the five out there, considering who the others were and their reputation, his numbers are getting zoomed, big time.
I notice too, that despite playing with Seider, Yzerman has yet to offer him an extension… I mean a guy putting up nearly 70% Corsi numbers and driving that number as you allege, that guy gets signed, not offered to all takers at the deadline.
In my head? I literally posted a link for you. But since you’re being obtuse, here are the categories I’m referring to:
CA/60
FA/60
SA/60
GA/60
xGA/60
SCA/60
HDCA/60
So, like, all of them. Walman shows better in every single one. The fact is that Detroit is better defensively when Walman is on the ice, including or excluding Seider, including or excluding Larkin.
he looked the poorest player on the ice out of the five out there
Maybe it’s time to admit that you aren’t the authority you think you are when it comes to “eye test”.
Yzerman has yet to offer him an extension
You know this how?
Tarkus
February 8, 2023 11:02 am
Prospectorama!
Again, just a solitary prospect in action this night, but this time it’s Max Wanner who will be doing that hockey thing.
After his brief flirtation with the point-per-game mark, he has put up only two points (both helpers) in his last 10 GP. Can he make like Joni Mitchell and get off this schneid tonight? We will know once the pick drops @ 6 p.m. Clandonald time.
“Look at those jokers glued to that damn hockey game.”
-also Joni (who I adore, forever)
MushedPeas
February 8, 2023 10:24 am
Given his own history of first acclimating to new leagues and then elevating his play, it will take a good two years for me to worry about Hollywood. Of course I was sure Benson would show his quality in some fashion, so maybe I’ll shut up and not jinx the kid.
Reja
February 8, 2023 10:18 am
So who comes out I wouldn’t mess with the 11/7. Janmark Nuge Kostin line has some real chemistry. McLeod Ryan and Holloway all looked good last night as well. Doesn’t Foegele relize the better he plays the better chance he gets traded since J.P and Yamo have less than zero value in the real world. As for Campbell his lifetime 87-47-15 is quite impressive all he does is win.
I think the Kostin/Nuge/Janmark chemistry is pretty over-stated by the masses and the media. They got absolutely caved last night and, well, over the course of their time together, have seen the puck go towards their net materially more often than the opposition net – to a tune of a 44% expected goal share. They run a real goal shore of 60% (9-6) based on a shooting percentage heater that’s now gone…..
I don’t mind the line but they get running around their own zone quite a bit (Kostin is a poor defensive zone structure player.
I don’t see Woody breaking them up any time soon as he sees Janmark as his trusted vet but, for me, as of now, the candidates for additional healthy scratches are: Janmark, Kostin, Ryan.
I love what Kostin brings – he has a presence with the puck and, of course, is a physical presence out there, but a game off here and there wouldn’t hurt him.
He does have issues in the defensive zone structure game, and has a penchant for minor penalties but he’s big, fast, aggressive and skilled with a good shot. You can see the “first round pedigree” in his game and, even when not on a heater, he’s holding on to pucks, letting plays develop, etc., etc. He also remains very physical and adds the presence out there between and after the whistles.
I’m happy he’s on the team and he does contribute even when not scoring, in my opinion.
A healthy Oilers lineup has a couple of legit NHL forwards not playing.
LadiesloveSmid
February 8, 2023 10:07 am
I’ve been pretty firmly on the Chychrun train.
With Ceci’s struggles, Matt Dumba might make more sense. Nurse needs help on that right side.
Sure, but “good defenseman” will cost an arm and a leg to acquire, and likely eats a sizable chunk of precious cap space. Why get someone who doesn’t add as much value as his acquisition cost/ cap hit due to duplication of skills?
Better to spend the assets & cap on achieving balance.
Last edited 1 year ago by ArmchairGM
knighttown
February 8, 2023 9:42 am
God did I hate 97s defensive game last. It was like greatest hits of his worst tendencies. Lazy coverage, soft coverage, slow to read or react, cheating out of the zone, zero structure on PK.
Saying that, my concern level on this player is zero, nil, zilch just thought it was worth a comment.
That line didn’t have their best last night, maybe too much going on. Kane was the best of the trio. you know what? The Depth and Campbell won the game, that is beautiful to hear.
Both McDavid and Draisaitl seem to neglect their defensive coverage when they’re together. That’s why we all like to see unicorns – the team is so much harder to play against.
I think both of those guys were feeling the effects of traveling from Florida to Edmonton and then back to Detroit over the past few days. I find travelling from West to East particularly difficult to adjust to, so I wasn’t surprised that neither guy appeared sharp last night.
Over the course of the last 3 seasons (including the current season), McDavid/Drai are 4.51 G/60 – I’m not sure anything they do while on the ice together is making it easy to defend…..
Also 6.58GF/60 (!!) and a 69% goal share together in their last 3 playoff years.
Far too easy on the opposition.
DevilsLettuce
February 8, 2023 9:34 am
Holloway looks determined to contribute
Elgin R
February 8, 2023 9:32 am
Wings
A very good outcome – 2 pts and no injuries (that we know of) to any Oiler players. No team can play 82 regular season games like they are playoff games without significantly increasing the chance of injury. The team, other than 97 / 29, played to their potential with great contributions from the bottom 6 (also Kane and The Nuge).
I do not see any reason to worry about two former Hart winners getting their act together very shortly.
The team is in a great spot, although I was suprised that the VGK spanked the Predators last night, to get into 2nd place by the end of February.
Flyers
The Flyers are 1-2-2 in their last 5 and 4-4-2 in their last 10. Of their 4 wins they have two wins against current playoff teams (Washington / Jets).
The Bruins play that way every game. Minus the brawling. But that’s the commitment level required to be a top 5 team. No games off, be ready to skate, play smart. Hyman can do it, Ryan isn’t inconsistent, everyone else can show up ready to play every game, if they choose to
Did Boston play that way when they lost 4-1 to Carolina or were shut out 3-0 by Seattle or lost in a SO to Ottawa or lost in regulation to Arizona, etc.?
No, the Bruins aren’t at their best ever game, just like the Oilers aren’t just like the TBL aren’t (who lost to the Sharks AFTER being blow-out by a state rival, 7-1).
Shamus23
February 8, 2023 9:20 am
Campbell was great. Team really had a poor last 15 minutes in the first. 3 of those posts had Campbell beat. But they came out strong in the 2nd.
Chippy hockey game. They sure do not like Kane. Could be major fireworks next week.
Very nice to see the rest of the team picking up the slack when your 2 top dogs looked tired and were just not into the game .
The PK is definitely picking up steam. I like Kane on it with McD.
Imagine how good it will be if we add a faceoff winning PK guy at the deadline
Desharnais was so fun to watch grabbing guys in the scrums. Nurse played mean last night and we need a lot more of that
Imagine how good it will be if we add a faceoff winning PK guy at the deadline
Holland should pick up ROR and Acciari in a 2-fer deal.
ArmchairGM
February 8, 2023 9:15 am
The fact everyone is having a damned difficult time finding a suitable and superior trade option reflects well on Mr. Kulak.
Jake Walman is the solution, as we saw last night. Pending UFA making just over a million, Seravalli thinks it would take a 2nd to land him. I think thats a little light… would Detroit accept a 2nd + Puljujarvi?
Walman would fit right in to the age group of the team. Seems like another Kulak though, not sure if thats the ‘move the needle’ extra boost we need like a Manson last year. I think that’s shopping in the right aisle though.
Wary of trading with Stevey again, rinsed last time.
What are the thoughts on Maatta? A cheaper pick up, playing well this year… might be a good fill in.. though his wheels arent the best
hmm maybe not, I just looked a little deeper…
I think he’s better defensively than Kulak. At least, his stats this year certainly show that. I really liked his gap control and defensive reads last night too.
According to the Cult of Hockey you are correct. We haven’t had a goalie steal a game yet this year. By their metrics stealing a game is when you are out “chanced” by four or more and win.
We’ve been “goalied” a number of times (Lukas Dostal!) but haven’t once goalied another team until last night. Chances were 17-12 Wings.
It was clear that Campbell was the better goalie last night but to me, I didn’t think he “stole the game” but my subjective view on what “stealing a game” means.
The Cult takes out the subjectivity and has objective metrics on what a game steal by a goalie is and good on Jack to steal that game.
He stole one in Tampa early in November. All the bad bounces early in the year are starting to even out. Add to that a new team (city) getting used to his D and new equipment and Bob’s your Uncle. You know Campbell is seeing the puck well when he was able to react to a tipped shot masterfully with his right pad.
wood99
February 8, 2023 9:05 am
i am not a nurse fan,but I can appreciate what he brings to the game. My problem with Nurse is that he seems to make the same mistakes game in and game out. As our top dman,I think this is an issue for us. Sometimes I think he needs to just simplify his game. I also think he should play with a good puck moving partner as I think that is one of his weaknesses. Jmo😄
I think Nurse’s issues are passing (he can pass but is inconsistent) and walkabout tendencies. Both blue can’t chase, as happened last night on the first goal. Nurse chips it to McDavid, BOTH he and Ceci need to haul ass into the high slot for the next wave of Wings. Never happened. Aggressiveness isn’t always a blessing.
I do agree that a better passer as partner would work and wrote about it today at The Athletc.
agree here too. Now in saying all that, I wonder with a better (top 4D) as a partner, would Nurse be overly aggressive as often? then mistakes would be less?
Great job as usual Lowetide! This and ‘Lowetide and Jamieson’ are a staple while I work 🙂
His passing is a bit off ( nice one last night) . He played really mean hockey last night. When he plays like that he is very effective in the D game . Be nice to see that Nurse a lot more
Best Nurse/Bouchard moment last night was when Bouch coughed up the puck right in the slot & Nurse rushed over & eliminated the guy with a crunching check.
And on a later sequence, while people loved the hard take down on Bertuzzi after Campbell froze the puck, the more important play was him boxing out/engaging with Bertuzzi during the shot so that Bertuzzi couldn’t deflect it and so Campbell could see and concentrate on the shot.
So if both Nurse and Ceci immediately haul ass into the high slot, who covers Larkin when the puck comes to him in the corner on that play? Ceci was in the corner checking Larkin off the puck that Nurse was able to chip and had to stay in the corner to engage Larkin when the puck almost immediately came to Larkin.
To my eye, the bigger errors in the whole sequence were McDavid doing a fly by on Seider after the Nurse chip and Leon’s slow return to the Oilers end of the ice.
If McDavid physically engages with Seider for that puck or even stops there, it then becomes a likely 50/50 battle and either Nurse and Raymond join the fray or Nurse can can stay with Raymond as he turns back towards the slot and the rest of the Oilers have more time to get in better position. Instead, because McDavid doesn’t really engage Seider at all, Nurse decides he has to but Seider dumps into the corner to Larkin, who hits the circling Raymond for the down low 2 on 1. It’s possible Nurse compounded McDavid’s error by going at Seider, but if he doesn’t Seider just walks out from the boards with the puck. Tough choice for him to have to make.
Maybe Kane could have stayed better with Bertuzzi, who got the jump towards the net when Kane was initially turned to head up ice, when Seider broke up the break out. That Kane was in view on the play and Leon only came in frame very late is curious since both Kane and Leon were behind the Wings net, Kane had to pick up his stick and still managed to get back to the Oilers end well before Leon came back. Had Leon hustled back on that play he could have been in the area on the boards with Seider. Now since they never showed Leon and Kane coming back, maybe Leon was hustling, but slowed to turn back towards the Winds end when he thought McDavid was going to get by Seider with the puck.
And since it seems after a 5-2 Oilers road win, the big thing seems to be to over analyze the Oilers goals against and mistakes that caused them, on the second goal I don’t believe that McDavid or Leon were the real culprits on that goal.
McDavid losing the puck was not the critical breakdown on the play. He lost control of the puck by the face off circle, fairly deep in the Wings end, and after he lost control it got passed back to just above the Wings goal line 170 feet from the Oilers net. Hardly a high risk turnover on McDavid’s part.
The other 3 forwards, Nuge, Hyman and Draisaitl all followed McDavid into the Wings end, and as the 4th forward in, Leon came in a little deep. However, if McDavid had not lost control, the Oilers would have had an outmanned situation of either 4-2 or 4-3 deep in the Wings end. And to Leon’s credit, on this play, he bust his ass back to the Oilers end and was in the Oilers slot to defend the 2 on 1. He couldn’t go at Velano on the play because Rasmussen came out of the penalty box and streaked in unmarked to create the 2-1. Nurse did a good job of keeping Seider out high in hopes of defensive reinforcements that did not come in sufficient numbers other than Leon.
The advantage gained by Veleno on the line change occurred because Hyman, while heading back to the Oilers bench engaged with Suter who had hit McDavid. Both Hyman and Suter then immediately changed, but Veleno (Suter’s replacement) coming off the far bench was able to get a significant jump on Foegele (Hyman’s replacement). As mentioned above, that Veleno was able to come in close for the shot was created because of Rasmussen coming out of the penalty box to create the 2-1. If Hyman had just gone straight to the bench, Foegele likely would have been beside Veleno instead of trailing him.
And I find it laughable when people accuse the Oilers top PP unit of being selfish for staying out for the whole 2 minutes. They don’t stay out there for the whole 2 minutes if Woody doesn’t give them the green light to do so. It was a power play at the end of a period, so none of those forwards are playing another shift until after the break.
Agree on the simplification, trying too hard mistakes happen 🙂 and he does need a better partner. I like Ceci mind you. We have 1 top 4 Dman (Nurse) and a borderline 1 in Ceci who is more like a 4/5. Another top 4 will go a long way. Bro looked decent last night, got some wheels.
This has for me been a season of hard head shaking at Nurse, at whom I’ve always shook my head but generally kind of believed in, even at 9M.
I now wonder if the cap commitment to Nurse will be a major crimp in the march to Stanley. Can’t have your best, most expensive Defender playing the way he has this season. Just can’t.
For me as well,I do think we need another left dman to take some minutes and pressure off of Nurse. I think hockey sense is Nurse’s biggest weakness as we all can see his physical skills are excellent.
19 minutes per game at 5 on 5, 37% of those minutes vs. elites, none of them with a D-partner that is anywhere near a legit top pairing guy, while starting only 40% of his face-offs in the offensive zone and having a 52% goal differential, plus almost 3 minute per game on the PK (the vast majority of which is again PP1) – that is a major crimp to Stanley due to an overpay that equals like 2% of the cap?
oil-in-the-blood
February 8, 2023 8:52 am
For all the Nurse haters/whiners out there. Just watch the game. Is he perfect? of course not. Last night he had a great game despite carrying Ceci who is a 4 D, despite carrying that terrible first line of 97, the Lion and Kane. Nurse was not the issue last night ladies and gents. He was hitting a la Trouba and made some great headman passes. A few mistakes here and there but nothing to write home about.
Get over yourselves.
‘Just watch the game’ isn’t really the MO I’ve seen here but to each their own.
I like Nurse’s game and know his importance to the team, yesterday was not a shining example. The one play I didn’t like was the jailbreak on the 2nd goal against. He gave up the line, didn’t engage the attacker, then let him get off the wall into the middle of the ice where he had all the options as the Oil were changing. If he pinned him to the wall, support would have had time to get back.
Soft, lazy play. That said, our standard of him is higher because money. His bullying of Bertuzzi was welcome.
Most recently, Trouba threw big hits against the Flames and was a minus 2 with terrible metrics. I prefer my dmen to keep the puck out first.
Fair enough, I got a little hyped up about it. Apologies. Exactly. I added the Trouba in there from a comment about how he should be more like Trouba. lol well maybe he is! haha
My point would be, we know he is overpaid (most are) Why keep revisiting what is known.
Every player makes mistakes every game. Nurse did last night, he also made some very good plays.
The “soft, lazy play” stood out because Nurse (& Draisaitl) were the ony Oilers on the screen while 3 forwards changed at once after a 2-minute powerplay shift. He was lliterally the only defenceman on the ice when Detroit returned to full strength with 15 seconds left in the period. Brutal game management by players who really should know better.
I’m as hard as anyone here on Nurse … that said, I thought he had a terrific game late last night. Don’t know who pissed in his cornflakes, but I wish they would do it more often, because the mean, nasty version of Nurse is worth every penny of his contract.
The first goal was not so much a problem with Nurse specifically, but rather a problem of the whole 5 man unit working together as a unit where each player takes care of their assignment to clear the zone.
We’ve been seeing the starfish much less in January and now into February and I like it … he’s staying on his feet and bodily taking the opposition players out of the play.
Summarizing!
Wanner was not in the lineup for Moose Jaw, reason unknown. The schneid continues unabated.
Re: Finding the next Devon Toews (Right shot version):
First we’d probably have to study the pre-Colorado Devon Toews.
One thing that immediately stands out is if you go to the WoodMoney’s for his last season with NYI his DFF% is far and away the best out of the top 6 on his team
You know who stands out a little bit with the WoodMoney’s?
Ethan friggin Bear!
hooo ya!
He’s playing easier competition relatively but his DFF% against elites is far outpacing his team mates.
Has he figured out how to handle a playoff intensity forecheck?
Cam Charron had been showing some clips of Bear’s deft, quick plays with the puck while under pressure.
I always thought that he was amazing in small spaces with the puck. A quick move here and an accurate pass. I don’t know what happened to him in the Chicago series where he struggled with the forecheck. And in the Winnipeg series where he made some really poor giveaway passes. I think that is what sealed his fate here though.
But guess what?
If you go to his last season with the Oilers and look up his WoodMoney’s against elites you see him far outpacing his Defence team mates in DFF%. With an incredible 59%
oh dear
note: Bear has moved up to the top pair with Quinn Hughes the last two games.
Does Tocchet appreciate what he brings more than Boudreau did?
His competition on the Right side in Van is Schenn, Myers and Burroughs. Not the stiffest of competition.
Bear has played with Hughes much more often than the last two games.
Boudreau often deployed them together.
*also allegedly coming to camp out of shape one year didn’t help his cause in ED
How about Filip Hronek? Would he be able to handle top pairing with nurse?
This is not the time of year to go down to 21 players. Even if it is for only two weeks. I understand that it has to be done this way, and that other contenders have done it this way in the past, but I’m not comfortable with the notion. My fingers are crossed for a fortnight of smooth sailing.
Luke Schenn is potentially having back troubles in the game against the Rangers tonight according to the Canuck broadcast crew. He is still playing, but between shifts he is standing on the bench looking uncomfortable.
Luke doesn’t want to be traded (uproot his family) read between the lines.
Source?
Holland all but confirms that the plan to activate Yamo is to put two forwards on waivers for the 21 player roster:
When he’s ready to play, you must clear cap space. Are you anticipating making a hockey trade or dumping salary?
We’re going to have to move two players — two forwards — probably on waivers. I’ll reach out (to other teams) and see if there’s some interest in what I’m looking to do. We’ll see.
https://theathletic.com/4170117/2023/02/08/oilers-trade-deadline-holland/?source=emp_shared_article
——
Shore as one is a no-brainer and the second is likely Jesse and then, in order, Ryan, Foegele, Janmark (no my order but my guess at Holland’s order).
I’ll add Holloway as a wild card.
Holloway down doesn’t open up enough cap space though.
Oilers 10 – 3 – 2 ever since they whipped Seattle and I want a 30 game season in a season until they play Boston in Boston which is the biggest game of the regular season.
Edmonton are on a 120 point pace in this mini universe, and in the real universe are suddenly being talked about as contenders to come out of the West.
This is the time to be an Oilers fan.
Holland needs to send the dead weight packing one way or another. Your not winning a Cup unless everyone’s pulling in the same direction.
Two goalies with potential to catch lightning in a bottle is an okay start.
Ok you made me say it out loud could we have the best tandem since Moog-Fuhr-Ranford days?
The hole is 1RD and as others have said, filling it moves Ceci down to the benefit of everyone. Obvious problem is there are no clear targets beside Karlsson (if he even wants to come). The Oilers become a monster when we can follow the STL model by getting/developing a guy who can play with Broberg against the toughs while allowing Nurse/Bouchard to kill the lesser lights. Could Desharnais become Parayko lite? Unlikely but who knows. What I do know is that I’d be trying this out as much as possible before the trade deadline
Nurse Bouchard/Barrie (lower tough minutes than ususal)
Kulak Ceci (higher tough minutes than ususal)
Broberg Desharnais
Holland is right to be careful. The defense is coming into focus and the last thing we need is a big move that flops, wastes assets, and screws up the next few seasons.
Thinking about other additions Holland has brought in and I wonder if assets that are useful past this season are more likely. Chychrun has contract and another cheap add might be Duclair to round out the top 6.
Two defense optional players are the last thing this team needs.
I personally don’t see a current or future 1RD in the organization.
Cap isn’t projected to go up much next year. A 1RD would cost plenty in free agency. We can pretty confidently rule out acquiring one via that method this summer. Maybe the next season, probably not.
We aren’t projected to pick high in the draft in the next few seasons making it very unlikely that we will be drafting a 1RD that will contribute at that level in the near term.
Connor is 26, Draisaitl is 27. These are good years.
I would pay a tonne for a 1 RD
(and I’d have to)
It may not be possible this year due to availability and cap. But I would offer a lot a LOT to make it happen.
I don’t begrudge Nurse for his contract but I do Holland. Despite past whatever that was a deal that should not have been done. He is a first pair D, but not worth that contract which limits the ability to even pay for another 1st pair D, let alone find that deal
Connor took less than market bcs he wanted to win. This is a public fact. Leon is far outperforming his even though it wasn’t a deal at the time. The Bruins have a culture of not paying top dollar, so that they can have a better team and the players have bought in
The Oilers have to return to this. Playing with Connor is worth something. If guys only want more money fair enough. I want players (who above bottom 6 and 3rd pair are millionaires) who want Cups more than money or warm winters anyway
The road to the Nurse contract was paved with the contracts for Chiasson and Kassian.
Just 8 days ago you said he signed Chiasson because he couldn’t sign Connolly. If he had signed Connolly, that would have been $3 million plus spent on Connolly. Seems like he was spending money on a need for a winger. If it hadn’t been Connolly or Chiasson it could have been someone else. So Chiasson’s money likely wouldn’t have been available for a Nurse extension.
And while the Kassian contract used up cap space, you have no idea what Nurse’s camp would have been willing to extend for and how much the Oilers would have paid to extend him if they had the room.
The most you can say is the road could have been paved. You can hold that opinion, but you don’t know it’s a fact.
You’re really working hard here. Holland dodged a bullet when Connolly chose Florida.
Holland signed Kassian to a 4 x $3.2 m on January 29th, 2020.
Chiasson’s $2.1 x2 ran until 2020-21.
Both of these contracts impeded Holland’s ability to do anything other than bridge Nurse. That’s a fact.
Kassian had 5 points in 27 games played in the first season after signing his contract. He was traded to Arizona for a trade down on a first and two draft picks (a second and a third) two seasons into his 4 year pact.
This season, which is the 3rd year of his 4 year contract, he has one goal and one point in 34 games.
Both of these contracts were contemporaneously stupid contracts for replacement level players. If you’re inclined to look back through the blog, you can see that I said that at the time they were signed.
Nurse’s bridge of $5.6 m was signed on February 10th, 2020.
We’ll call it two weeks after he inked Kassian to a 4-year contract.
Holland had $5.6 m right there. At that time, the market was a long way from the $9.25m that was established by the Jones contract.
I’m not sure what Nurse would have signed at, but there was a good $3m to $3.3m in wasted cap on those two contracts that could have been used to sign him long term.
Nurses $9.25m was signed on Aug 6, 2021 after the market shifted.
And put in the curbs put in when he facilitated Jones getting acquired and overpaid so he with no cap savvy could choose to overpay Nurse
Remember the Nurse camp was good with 8 at the front according to reports. Meaning it could have been low 8 or with some push high 7
Egregious really. Paying now as the cap remains stalled
If Leon and Mcdavid resign paying Nurse is well worth the price of business.
More likely Koskinen.
In what universe did Mikko earn an extension to $4.5MM AAV before Nurse was extended long term?
I just about lost my mind when ChiaPete made that move. Holland inherited that mess, so I’m less inclined to judge him as harshly for bridging Nurse again, while he concurrently cleaned up the mess he’d inherited.
Right before getting canned too. If there was anything worse than the Reinhart trade, it was Chia’s desperation moves. Strome and Koski. The latter one makes me wonder if there was a favour to an agent owed. A promise made.
The problem is there just aren’t that many
If one goes to nhl.com and sort Defencemen by toi and limit it to R shot (just to get an idea). It’s pretty slim pickins
They are a precious commodity.
While being somewhat precious, they are not all that rare for teams that have prioritized their acquisition.
LA has 7 RHD in their system.
Dallas drafted 4 defensemen with their 1-4 picks in the 2022 draft…3 of them are RHD while also trading for Nils Lundquist in the offseason.
The Oilers have only drafted 2 RHD in the past 5 drafts seemingly fixated more on wingers.
Too bad, since when they drafted Holloway, RHD Braden Schneider was sitting right there na d Justin Barron was also available.
#1 RD I mean
but that is a smart draft strategy generally. Draft the scarce commodity. Otherwise it is too expensive to acquire via other methods.
We have an Eastern Amateur scout who appears to have a great eye for Defencemen.
Picked some nice RHD in later rounds – Wright should listen intently when that guy pounds the table for a D man he likes
Thing is, unless you’re picking top 10 it’s pretty difficult to suss out who will become a #1D and even then some like Bouchard will break your heart.
So,m I agree…drafting quantity may be the smart way to go.
So you’re saying Bouchard broke your heart because he’s outpaced Brogan Rafferty so badly (even in a down year, in the NHL).
Poor prediction, but at least you’re consistent.
There is an another Devon Toews out there. If I was the owner I’d be asking my GM where he is. The problem is not being able to find or recognize who is actually high end
Been a long time since Sather or Lowe’s lucky spring
Finding a Right shot Toews would be excellent.
Where is he? That is our task.
I agree that a Ceci upgrade would be really nice, but there isn’t an obvious trade target for the deadline (outside of the unlikely Erik Karlsson deal).
I and others have mentioned Nick Jensen. He plays top pair with Orlov.
Woodguy mentioned Klingberg, but he’s really struggling this year. He was a hell of a transition d in his prime though.
Gostisbehere at double retention would be a very nice addition. He can play a ton of minutes and take some of the burden off Nurse. He can also play right sided. For example, he could slot in for Ceci when trailing or for ozone starts. He played right pair with Chychrun this year prior to his injury.
IMO Nurse looked good initially playing with Bear because of his outlet passes. I think teams started pressure Bear though since they knew that was the play.
Still, a Nurse pairing with a player who is a plus at outlets has appeal. Bouchard is the internal option, but I’m not sure he can play that comp.
Look at the Avs last year. They had Makar playing 27:04 per game and Toews playing 25:52.
Nurse was injured playing only 21:07 and a healthy Ceci played 20:17.
This year Nurse doesn’t seem quite the same pre-injury. The overall pairing doesn’t seem as good.
There’s not much quality on the free agent horizon for right shot d.
yes, it’s an interesting dilemma.
Bouchard and Barrie would help with passing but they may struggle in zone vs the elite competition that Ceci takes on.
Ceci is better in zone while not as good at the outlets (i think).
If there was a Dman that could combine both – he’d be worth a very large investment.
Nurse/Bouch played 180 minutes together vs. elites last season and, while they were 4-5 goals, their underlying numbers were very good included in 5.25 DFF%RC.
They are off the charts good against elites this season (and 1-0 goals) in a small sample of 30 minutes.
Nurse/Bouch has had success.
on Klingberg, fwiw, he was horrawful in the playoffs vs Calgary last year. Real bad. But that’s a small sample size
Klingberg is a slightly better Barrie. And more expensive
It won’t cure what ails them
By “slightly better” do you mean “worse”.
He makes Barrie look like prime Vlasic.
i agree on Bear
“The fact everyone is having a damned difficult time finding a suitable and superior trade option reflects well on Mr. Kulak.”
solid point
Two more games to go before Yamamoto is eligible to be re-activated. Seems likely based on his practices and interviews, though as per usual, the Oilers never say for sure until the time comes – and I don’t blame them.
Assuming Yamamoto does get activated for the Habs game, besides the question of what moves do the Oilers have to make to get their roster cap compliant, there is also the question does Woody stick with the 11/7 skater configuration in the game line-up (assuming he doesn’t change it in any of the next 2 games)?
Does he stick with what has not lost in regulation in 9 games? Or, after the dust settles with the roster shuffling (assuming no trades – just players moved to the AHL), does he go back to 12/6 because he has another top 6 forward back in the line up, allowing him to create more balanced lines?
My guess would be that if they go11/7 in the next 2 games, win both or at least get 3 points, he sticks with the 11/7 for at least a game with Yamamoto back. Part of Woody’s thinking, that he has alluded to in his past pressers is that sometimes its about match ups. If he doesn’t believe the other team is strong down the middle, he is more comfortable with the 11, and mixing things up a fair bit with Leon and RNH moving up and down the top 2 lines. If the other team has potentially 3 strong centers, he might be inclined to go back to 12, with Connor, Leon and RNH all centering their own lines again (which is generally only possible when the top 7-8 forwards are healthy. I don’t think the next 4 games present that problem, but Woody may see it different. However, if no other line up/roster changes happen before the Rangers game, if he hasn’t gone to 12/6 by then, I expect he will in that game.
Of note, I have heard a couple of the respected Edmonton media mention that Yamamoto would be eligible to play on Saturday against the Sens. I haven’t gone back and re-checked my counting but my personal calculations led to Sunday eligibility.
In any event, Holland said Saturday today – he said he wasn’t sure if he’d be ready for that date but that’s the eligibility date.
Unless there is an injury to the D, I imagine they’ll be sticking with 11/7 when Yamo’s activated.
One of Jesse, Yamamoto, Foegele, Janmark, Ryan need to be out (waived and assigned/claimed or traded) unless they have a more major transaction for the 21-player roster (and Holland expressed we are likely back to that upon Yamo’s activation).
Lets just presume Jesse is out, for the purposes of the healthy scratch, for one game, if its based on recent results, I would go with, in order:
Janmark, Kostin, Ryan, Foegele, Yamamoto.
I presume Woody will go with Kostin or Ryan.
I have too. That is, heard on the radio he’s eligible for Saturday. Made me think, did I count wrong?
http://oilfans.com/schedule.php?id=2022-23
Twenty four days will have elapsed, but not ten games. Does the ALL Star break/game count as a game? I can see that, actually. I love this bit from Capfriendly in their FAQ:
LTIR is a very complicated aspect of the NHL operations and the vast majority of details are not specified in the CBA.
It is so NHL to keep their head office as the only people on the planet who know the actual rules. Just like offsides.
Does expected goals do fractional goals? Or is does it really predict that Nurse and Ceci should have gone 1-11 xgf-xga last night?
I checked NST and it is fractional goals but the xGF-xGA tell a much different story. For one, Nurse was at 25xG% but that’s beside the point. Expected goals just seems like a bad indicator for Dmen.
Expected goals weights chances based on shot location but that means the dmen are even more at the mercy of their forwards. Obviously the dmen effect their xGF by controlling play. But both Nurse and Ceci had better FF% and corsi% so it looks like they both got digned for their forwards shooting from bad spots in the Ozone. The dmen should own some of that but not much.
For those saying that we are playing well right now, so wait and see how the blue-line grows before spending assets trying to land a big fish on D (eg. Chychrun).
I guess it all depends on if your goal is to slowly build a decent team, or if it is to capitalize on the opportunity to win the Cup RIGHT NOW.
Obviously nothing is guaranteed but remember, Avalanche were already far and away the best team in the west last year and went out and got Josh Manson at the deadline. It wasn’t the only thing that help them win but it was significant.
We are on a nice run against the worst teams in the league and some feel we should just play this hand, unlike the Avs who went for the win. I disagree…
Counter-point
1) It starts at the beginning. This isn’t a decent team. Its one of the best teams in the NHL. Right now, today. You can go all the way to the beginning of the season or we can shorten the timeframe. No matter how you look at it the Oilers are very good and are likely to climb higher quite quickly. In a week the Oilers will be tied for the Pacific Division lead, will have a goal differential in the top five, will be on pace for 105 points, have a historically good PP, and four guys on pace for 100 points. I mean come on that’s pretty sweet!
2) From that starting point you have a 3rd of your team at or under the age of 25 and whom aside from Yamo and JP will have played less than three NHL seasons each. Most of whom are under team control for low pay in a flat cap world. You’ve drafted and developed all of them.
Speaking on behalf of the keep calm and build on folks I see tremendous upside this season, this playoffs, next season and the season after that with this group of people. I can see seasons of utter domination with the current configuration. And if you re-sign Leon and McD it could last for a dozen years.
For a Big Swing this Year here is what concerns me with some of the deadline trade deals floated.
I think there are risks to casting off young players for a singular run now. Chychrun will need a new shiny contract and hit UFA long before Bouch, Bro, Hollywood or Bourgault. There is no guarantee you keep him as a UFA (cough Larsson cough). Older vets nearing UFA all come with this risk. Having prospects push to the top and land feature roles is what made the Hawks, Pens and Tampa lethal for a decade.
I think there are risks to sending out too many NHL forwards in order to fit a defenseman when forward depth is what held you back in November and early December. You trade or wave a combo of Ryan, Janmark, Foggy, Yamo, JP and you’re an injury away from Klim having to play feature minutes.
After weighing these factors I prefer small deals for NHL depth. Its dollar in dollar out so there’s a chance to make a decent upgrade for a forward if one of JP or Foggy is heading away. A forward and a dman. Get one of each. You need to keep testing and building the young players on your team and they are showing progress. Why derail a very successful internal experiment so far?
I agree any move that considerably improves chances of true contention, within the remaining window of mcdrai’s contracts, should be strongly considered.
1. The obvious reasons
2. The secondary benefit of solid playoff runs opening up possibility of ufa’s that have banked well considering a Cap friendly shirt deal to chase Stanley 1 more round
3. Better overall negotiating any contracts for same reason
4. Specifically this year and next I firmly believe a market advantage in play with cap restrained. Any move that might better ensure running full roster of nhl calibre for remainder of this season and next has added intrinsic value.
Honestly, since I suggested it:
Nyquist and garikov for klef/Smith ltir, a foegle/kulak contract (to offset incoming garikov contract) and whatever within reason required to make deal palatable is my #1 with a bullet.
Cap circumvention if nyquist activated come playoffs with garikov holding down #2 lhd and some more walking around money in offseason seems ideal to me.
That or chychrun/bjugstad are two deals I can see justifiable to pay for this year.
I don’t understand the desire to move the Klefbom/Smith contracts is acquiring Nyquist.
There is no cap benefit to that and, in fact, depending on timing/structuring, etc. it could serve to reduce cap space if it momentarily takes the team out of LTIR and then back in to it (with the amount of LTIR reserves re-calculated with potentially some cap space, reducing them).
If nyquist ends up ready before season end was thinking don’t really want to be in excess ltir might be benefit of accrued space helping ability to carry larger roster….but brain now uncertain logical I’ll admit.
Just was trying to best account if thst was possible.
Fair enough – will note that if Nyquist was to be activated prior to season’s end, the Oilers would be effed trying to get him under.
Oh it’s a mess alright. I did more than think theoretically about it before answering. Its just…yeah.
The Avalanche traded a second round prospect and a second round pick for Manson (with Anaheim retaining half the salary). That is light years away from what the ask is for Chychrun. No one considered Manson a big fish.
Manson started the playoffs as the petite Girard’s physical defensive partner. Once Girard went down, Manson was playing mostly 3rd pair with Jack Johnson. He was an important addition, but he was no go for it trade. They just wanted size and grit from a stable defender to go with all there smaller defenders. He is solidly on their 3rd pair this season when he is healthy.
Holland was on Rishaug’s podcast with LeBrun and Mike Johnson and here is a summary (I haven’t done the last few minutes as I have to run for a conference call now):
1) what do you like most about what’s changed in your group recently: Since X-mas we are 11-3-2. In 11 of those 16 games we’ve given up 2 or less in regulation. That gives you an opportunity to put something together. With PP being number 1 in league and with Connor and Leon, you are going to get some goals. So, our commitment to defence and keeping the puck out of our net. We got healthy. We were down 4 of top 9 forwards and, in a cap world its tough to be overly deep. Kane injury gave us some cap space and ability to bring up Kostin//Janmark.
2) Johnson asked about tending and Campbell getting his game together and asked if Kenny spoke to him. I only talked to him a few times. Quite often I find when playrers sign big contracts and go some place new there is pressure. He was a career .912 goaltender. Jack wasn’t on top of him game but the team was given up too many Grade As. Jack has got comfortable. He’s got a great relationship with our goalie coach. He’s found the mental sweet spot.
3) LeBrun talked about how tight the Pacific is and other GMs are kind of wanting to get through the next few weeks before making moves. I go historically. History says most moves will happen in the last few days and deadline day. There is a reason there are shows right up to the deadline. March 1, 2 and 3 is when most deals will happen. Because league is so tight there are lots of teams who aren’t sure if they are buyers or sellers and the market has to show itself. If you are 2-3 weeks in advance and are a seller, you ask for a high price. As the deadline approaches, you find the price point. I’ve talked to many many many GMs recently. We are in LTIR with the Klefbom injury. When Yamo gets activated we’ll probably be back to that 21 player roster. We are dollar in and dollar out. That makes it more difficult but certainly I’m working the phones and certainly I’d like to find a little more or something that can impact our team. We’ll see.
4) Rishaug asks specifically about Chychrun but then goes for bigger picture and asks if he wants a pure defensive d-man or a Chychrun type skillset? I would say, I’m watching right now. We have two great stories on the backend since X-mas. Phil Broberg is a real good story. Plus 10 in 24 games and 21 years of age. I’ve been around a long time and understand playoff experience vs. a young player that’s never been. Vinny D. has been a good story for us. 6’7 and 6’3 – they give us length. Phil can skate, gives us mobility. We’ve been going 11/7. I’ve been talking to GMs and its my job to know what’s out there. Irregardless of names, we are dollar in and dollar out. If we want to bring in a big cap hit, we’ll have to do some real gymnastics. LTIR!!!!! Speaks about accruing cap space and pro rating contracts and LTIR not allowing for this and makes it more difficult to make trades. Spoke about 2 or less given up in 11 of last 16. Would I like to do something? Yes, I’d like to. Am I convinced I’ll do something? We’ll have to see. I’m working the phones.
5) M. Johnson talked about how open the West is and if the opportunity along with value deals on McDavid/Drai is factored in. I’ve been around a long time Mike, there are no guarantees. 16 presidents trophy winners. 2 have won the cup. They went in to playoffs as favourites and two one. You have to go in and play your best hockey. Going to final four last year and the road to it (and the experience) and losing to the eventual champs (who built for 3-4 years to the cup)….. you have to play a certain style. The more times you are in the playoffs, the more playoff games you play – the better understanding for the individual and for the team. Certainly, when trades are made, you are trying to up the odds – with depth and/or an impact player. You need everyone to play their best over a two-month period. I weight all that. I understand we have lots of players in the primes of their careers. I feel good in a sense that I think we build up depth. Goal differential when 97/29 is off the ice has been improved big time over the years. We are building. Its a process. You need to keep building and building and need multiple opportunities. Can’t just say this is the one opportunity and throw the kitchen sink at it and in September start all over again. I’ve got to have a feeling for when the time is right and when the opportunity is right to impact the team. Spoke about his deadlines as an Oiler and what he’s done (AA, Kulak, Brassard). In the two years, I’ve made deals. I’m hoping to make a deal but I can’t predict the future. Its got to happen right. Its got to work.
6) LeBrun spoke more about weight opportunity now (with height of McDavid/Drai) vs.building for the long term. Again, there is no magic done or pixie dust to throw at this thing – the one trade that will “win the Cup”. Certainly the right trade can help (i.e. Larry Murphy, Brad Stuart examples – and cited Colorado deals from last year). The salary cap in my mind, with the cap not moving materially recently – until it starts to move like normal – that’s going to have an impact on the off-season and the trade deadline. When the season opened, we had 21 players and 9 made $1.125MM or less. You need home grown players who play for cheap. Need to draft and develop – that needs to be a key component to the team’s success. Its a balancing act. I’m working the phones. I’m going to continue watching our team and look for a player that can have a positive impact via a depth or more of a top type of a guy. Sometimes I’ve been able to do it and sometimes I haven’t been able to.
7) Rishaug asks about Jesse and Yamamoto coming back and if anything is close and if that deal finally comes to fruition. I’ve got to make some decisions. Yamo is eligible to come off on Sat for Ottawa. Not sure if he’ll be quire there but we’ll see. If no-one else goes on LTIR, I’ve got some big decisions to make. All the bottom of the roster players will be in that decision. They all can’t stay. At the beginning of the year it was Janmark. Jesse was a healthy scratch last night and I’ve got some tough decisions to make.
8) MJ asked about depth and how Holland feels. I feel good. References the 97/29 off number. References how great McLeod is playing. Kostin has been a good story. Janmark is a pro – been around a long time and played on good teams in the playoffs. Got to get Yamamoto back and make some decisions about who will be on the team. Holloway is a 1st round pick and adds speed and youth. Our bottom six is as good as its been since I got here. Those players don’t make alot of money and are really valuable. If they can contribute, that helps you be a better team. Holloway is home grown. McLeod is home grown. Jesse down there is home grown. I’ve traded away lots of draft picks (2 2nds for AA, picks for Lucic, picks for Kulak). I know where the players are at and I’m trying to give them a boost but, at the same time, look at the age of our players – they are not one-offs. We will have these players back and will have the same opportunity next year. That’s what I’m balancing. Trying to be a playoff team year after year after year after year – that’s part of the formula of winning a Stanley cup. Broberg is 21 and Holloway is 21 – give them another 30 games and you are doubling their NHL games. You need those players to be part of the solution.
Gawd, I love Holland.
Parsing between the lines here, but I think we can see a preference or two.
–acquisition ideally has playoff experience
–any big deal will mean dollars in,dollars out, ie a roster player going the other way and he doesn’t sound too comfortable with this idea. Would need to be a perfect fit coming in.
–He values productive youth, although he didn’t mention Boosh when talking homegrown. I’m leery of reading too much into that specific omission, but it seems unlikely he will trade what he deems to be any present or future value contracts.
The first two points eliminate Chychrun (and you never know, maybe Holland was negotiating via the media), as ARI to this point has allegedly been unwilling to accept a contract back on Chychrun.
I’d add “Certainly, when trades are made, you are trying to up the odds – with depth and/or an impact player.”
Seems clear the value of an impact addition isn’t lost on him, so if the cost/benefit and cap can work, likely without a (potential) ‘value contract’ headed out, we may well see a significant add.
He mentioned bigger deals a couple of times in this spate of interviews so I’d agree a big splash is definitely possible, but he was also clear on my second point above… it will have to be dollar in and dollar out.
Yes, for sure, there’s no way around that.
I just think that in the right scenario it’s possible a couple of players head out to make space for a bigger addition, though I agree that won’t be done lightly.
I can see this type of thing working out using the Puljujarvi contract.
Say Jesse in a deal for Ryan O’Reilly 50% retained with a 3rd team taking a 7th rounder to retain an additional 25%, which brings his cap hit down to $1.875M. Having Puljujarvi’s contract heading the other way means the Oilers save $1.125M. That alleviates the pressure from Yamamoto’s return, probably only Shore needs to be sent out.
Yes, something like that could work for sure. You’re correct that O’Reilly with double retention for Puljujarvi would allow the Oilers to waive Shore and run a compliant 22-man roster (13F/7D).
I wasn’t even counting Shore in my original thought though. I meant both Foegele and Puljujarvi could be sent out for a higher end forward. Or Kulak and one of the forwards for a higher end D. That would allow the Oilers to take on as much as $4.5M for one player (with a 21-man roster).
It’s not likely we see it happen, but that allows Holland to be in the conversation for nearly any addition out there (when you take retention into account).
OP, thanks for the detailed summary.
I’ve been around a long time Mike, there are no guarantees. 16 presidents trophy winners. 2 have won the cup. They went in to playoffs as favourites and two one. You have to go in and play your best hockey. Going to final four last year and the road to it (and the experience) and losing to the eventual champs (who built for 3-4 years to the cup)….. you have to play a certain style. The more times you are in the playoffs, the more playoff games you play
This suggests to me that Kenny is thinking long-term, and he won’t trade away big futures for pending UFAs. And you know, he might be right. When only 50% of the teams qualify, there are few weak teams in the playoffs, and there’s a lot of luck/chance involved, no matter how strong your team is that year. (Look at Florida last year, going all in, and now they don’t have a first-rounder for three years.) I think Kenny will take the risk on having a 10-year window (i.e. McDrai sign here again) rather than going all-in for a 3-year (or 1-year) window.
My guess is that he trades a 2023 2nd rounder for a depth D, and I’d probably support that. If he trades the 2023 1st rounder and/or a real prospect, I suspect it’s for a longer-term contract (e.g. Chychrun).
Further to luck/chance:
-the Ovechkin Caps waited about a decade to get a Cup
-the Crosby Pens won one early, then waited another decade
-the Stamkos/Hedman Lightning waited about a decade
-even the Brady-Belichick Patriots went a decade between Super Bowls
Kenny has seen dominant Red Wing teams lose to weaker teams in the first round. Like losing to us in 2006! I bet he, too, still remembers the Hemsky goal.
Thank you OP, really appreciate posting this for all who didn’t listen.
Bob to Spec: “After this past month and the D call-ups, do the Oilers need to add a 2nd pairing Dman?”
Spec: “If the Oilers were to add a Chychrun, Broberg would be in Bako and I don’t want that guy out of the line-up. I’m not sure I want Desharnais out of the line-up. they will likely add two players, one a decent player, the other a depth player. Two weeks ago I would’ve said the big spend would be 2LD, now I’m thinking more like 3/4C.”
Hmm, I understand Bob and Spec’s line of thinking here, but I think it’s unwise. Undoubtedly, Broberg and Desharnais have played great recently, and so has Bouchard. All within the last 9 or so game stretch, which not coincidentally, has mostly occurred against weaker competition.
That isn’t to disqualify their excellent play, but I think they both should acknowledge that judging these young D based off of softer minutes, against bottom half teams likely isn’t indicative of how they will fare in the heat of a 7 game series against quality opposition who can and will exploit their weaknesses.
I just think it is silly to think, “problem solved” in February, when we know for sure that the hockey starting in mid April is several levels higher. Improve now, in whatever way you can, because you’ll regret not doing so when you lose a D to injury and/or have another one falter under the pressure.
Great points.
A bit of history to re-enforce what you’re saying:
2017 playoffs – Sekera gets hurt in game 5. Oilers dress Griffin Reinhart for pivotal games 6 and 7.
2022 playoffs – Nurse gets injured right at the tail end of the regular season. Keith and Kulak provided good cover, but Oilers were at least one top-4 Dman short in the Colorado series.
You need depth. And not Luke Schenn / Jake Walman depth. You need highly-skilled top-4 depth.
FYI Broberg’s really strong run commenced Dec 31, so 14 games and counting.
+13 in his last dozen games
I’m of two minds:
1) The team at present construction is very good. There are no weak links. Don’t expend resources except to add a depth piece.
2) The team is presently very good. If you’re going to bother to add a player, have it be an elite player who can push us to the SCF.
I think you can upgrade on Kulak while avoiding taking away minutes from Broberg. I also think Jacob Chyckrun might be an improvement on Tyson Barrie as a pp quarterback.
Arnt we .1% away from having the best powerplay of all time since the stat has been tracked? Barrie is a big part of that.
It’s a controversial opinion, but I believe a really talented shooter like Chyckrun could offer another dimension to the powerplay.
Perhaps you roll out different looks to pp1 with Barrie and Chyckrun alternating (not a bad idea if you play an opponent 6 or 7 games straight), and would also allow you to move on from Barrie in the offseason with a powerplay ace in the fold.
Any time Mark Spector makes a decision based on 2 weeks of evidence, a betting man should do the exact opposite.
EDM is of course cap-strapped. I see 3 needs (beyond the goaltending holding up):
-Top 4 D
-Finishing winger for 97
-Defensively conscious winger for 29 (no more Derek Ryan)
If they can achieve 1-2 of those with some cap gymnastics, there should be serious confidence in this team. Dallas is the beast in the West this year, and they are no 2022 Avalanche.
Load it up!
6 weeks in the case of Broberg.
I don’t think I’ll ever understand the reasoning behind not adding a player — say Chychrun — because it will block a younger player next, or the following year.
Stanley Cup calibre teams are deep in every possible position. Defenders, especially, get hurt so you can’t assume the top six at the start of the playoffs will be there at the end. Adding someone who can step into the second pair, push Kulak down, and provide support to Nurse would be invaluable in a playoff run.
The salary cap is an issue. The cost of acquisition is an issue. But, making it harder for Broberg to move up the roster next year isn’t an issue.
If Broberg forces the issue and gives the Oilers no choice but to move him up then you look at trading a defender from a position of strength.
Bouchard played very little in the 3rd period last night. Clearly Manwood was seeing what we were all seeing.
Desharnais started the game with Kulak and then Boosh as his partner but by the second half of the game was firmly beside Bromeester (h/t) for the duration of the match.
Vinnie got turnstiled a couple of times himself. Once right before he scored Foegele’s second goal and also the one that led to the brouhaha that found him and Kostin in the box after the play.
But Boosh was, as LT put it above, pure chaos last night. Hopefully he gets it back together for the Philly game.
This is why I chafe at any pronouncement of Bouchard being ready to play 1RD. He’s been far too inconsistent from one night to the next to rely on him for that. I’m not convinced his motor goes hard enough to be relied on as a 2LD this season either.
He’s perfect where he is next to Broberg, with Deslauriers dressed as the 7th D to pick up the slack when Bouchard’s head is not in the game.
He has not earned a Klebom contract this season.
Bouch should be a right winger
New Burns? Why not.
Barrie should be a forward
Bouch gets a lot of flack for a guy who’s only played 169 NHL games. I wanted him benched at one point early in the year but LT was right about young players needing reps.
I agree that he hasn’t earned a Klefbom contract. And that’s a good thing. In the summer his incoming Klef contract meant someone else was getting shipped out. Bouch around Kulak money for two years is glorious.
You need a full team top to bottom I’m especially loving the Kostin Nuge Yanmark line. It should be Jesse instead of Yanmark but Jesse just doesn’t have the goods to fit in with the Oilers. Kostin opens up ice for Yanmark and Nuge who are a real threat to score. I hope Jesse lands in Columbus or Carolina I think he’ll recover some of his passion playing with Laine or Aho.
I too hope he lands in Columbus or Carolina, so he can see just how far he is from being a top 6 forward by comparison to his countrymen.
this
I’m late to the party LT but just wanted to say I enjoyed the post the other day reminiscing about past posters on this wonderful blog. It’s been several years since I last posted (and I wasn’t a frequent poster anyway) but never stopped reading and enjoying the discourse. Have been reading since around 2009 I believe.
Those who remember me may recall I was supposed to travel from Australia to Canada in March 2020 for the first time on a once-in-a-lifetime trip with my girlfriend. Had tickets to see the Oilers play twice in EDM. Well we arrived mid-March only for the entire country to shut down due to COVID… bummer! We had only arrived a day or two earlier, we had expected the holiday to be cut short but not that quickly. We decided to push it as long as we could before hopping on a flight home – managed to spend a few days in Calgary (including the quietest Paddy’s Day we’ve ever had in an almost empty Irish bar, but still fun!) and then made it to Banff for 5 days where it was a ghost town. I believe we were the last guests left at our resort, but it was eerily beautiful.
Long story short, I asked the gf to marry me on top of a mountain, she said yes, we flew home and into self-quarantine for 2 weeks, we got married last August, and now we’re coming back to Canada next month to finish what we started – tix to the OTT. And DAL games in EDM! Then onto Jasper for a few days. Beyond excited.
If anyone has any tips/recommendations for EDM it would be much appreciated, we’re staying right in downtown just off Jasper Ave (104 St NW). Places to eat and drink, things to do during the day etc. Would love to go to elk island but not sure if that’s doable without our own transport, and understand it may not be the best time of year. We’re mid-30s so not young but still clinging to whatever youth we have left!
Thanks!
It might be a little boring, but the Royal Alberta Museum is right beside the rink. I went there with my kids over Christmas and we really enjoyed it! There are some cool photo ops and honestly there is a ton to see in there! They have a bug exhibit – might not be that exciting to Aussies but it’s all live bugs!
Just thinking the weather might be mixed so that’s a good indoor activity that’s close to where you are staying. Museums might not be that cool but I think RAM is worth visiting.
Good to hear from you, Chris, & congrats on the nuptials.
If you go to RAM, make sure you stop to take in Manitou Asinîy, the Manitou Stone, a 145 kg meteorite which is considered sacred by Indigenous peoples. It’s in a special chamber outside RAM with no admission charged, but the small detour is well worth it. Soon to be repatriated to its original landing spot, but still at RAM for now.
Thanks Bruce! Great, we’ll definitely check that out!
I was hoping you’d comment actually – my wife is desperate to see the aurora borealis, we’ll be in Jasper for the last week of March so hoping we’ll get to see it but understand it’s not a given. Any tips in this regard?
Thanks! We love museums so will definitely check out RAM!
Muttart Conservatory in the river valley,short bus ride from downtown. I really enjoyed Kelly’s pub. Just a few blocks from Rogers, beef dip is phenomenal. Have fun! 👍
Thanks, will check that out for sure! Kelly’s is actually just a couple of doors up from where we’re staying so that was already on our list, good to know it’s worth checking out. My wife is Irish so of course wherever we go we have to find an Irish pub…
Grindstone theater is a cool little spot. Weekend usually dj’s setup in theater part later but lots of interesting funny stuff going on (plays, comedy troops, improv, weird al karaoke contests etc.
By where you are staying there’s electric sign street museum and some higher end good bars around it.
I think by arena there should also be ice maze up still depending if it stays warm or not.
https://www.infoedmonton.com/article/5-outdoor-rinks-for-skating-in-edmonton/
Thats good list of scenic skating spots.
I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be hard to borrow some skates off someone in here.
Great tips, thanks maudite! We’re terrible skaters but up for anything so we’ll try that out, and hope the maze is still there when we arrive.
Speaking of music, see if there are any shows at the Starlite Room- it’s a long time, iconic venue in Edmonton. Might be a younger crowd depending on the act but it’s a really cool place, one of the best spots to see a band in Edmonton (IMO). I am a little out of the loop on the Edmonton music scene though so feel free to rebut Edmontonians.
There are a lot of good restaurants on 104. Seoul Fried Chicken for something fast/cheaper, Sabor (Portugese/Spanish), Bundok and Black Pearl (Seafood), Bistro Praha (Central European) and Woodwork (cocktails) are all good. If you’re going to Whyte Ave and like BBQ, Meat and it’s adjoining restaurants are worth the visit. I second the Museum idea and if you have a chance to check out a concert at the Winspear it’s acoustics are world class.
For a pregame meal, you can’t go wrong with Kelly’s Pub or the Canadian Ice House in the Ice District as well. Both will be packed with hardcore Oilers fans getting ready for the game! If it’s still cold enough, you may even be able to catch a quick skate at the Ice District plaza as well, which under the lights is a neat experience.
If you’re in Jasper for that Saturday, I recommend stopping in at the bar at the Athabasca Hotel to catch the Oilers game against the Kraken at 2:00. Great drinks, play some pool, and watch the Oilers on the projector. That’s also a great little bar later on at night too, especially if there is live music next door.
Sorry, one last recommendation. I’d really recommend Maligne Canyon in Jasper as well. If you can, rent some ice cleats to go over your shoes. It’s a gorgeous hike down into the canyon, only a few mins outside of Jasper, and you’ll likely see some ice climbers if the weather is right.
Have an awesome time!!!
If you’re staying on 104 St., and you like wine, you may want to check out the Tzin wine bar. Cozy and charming little place. I think they may have tapas as well.
I highly recommend Uccelino. Simple Italian dishes. It is a great date spot. A bit pricey but easily one of the best restaurants in Edmonton. It is conveniently located just off 104th and Jasper.
Woodwork is also close and has great cocktails and whisky.
For breakfast, OEB is downtown and quite good. Pip is probably better and located on whyte ave, which is a fun neighbourhood to check out. It is the university/arts area of the city. Many pubs and restaurants.
Victoria park has a great skating rink, and I think they rent skates. It is walkable (depending on your fitness level) or a short uber from downtown.
Finally, Plaza bowl is a retro bowling alley just north of downtown, serving a nice assortment of local beers.
I have not lived in Edmonton for 38 years so I have no recommendations but these kid of posts and the replies is why I really like this place. This is a community!
I think it’s fair to say these Oilers play traditional Oiler hockey, loose and fast as the glory guys at Goose Loonies
Methinks they are needing their Muckler Moment, when they decide that they actually have to play some defence and follow a structure
If the 80’s guys couldn’t just outscore everything to beat the Islanders, I don’t think the current guys can either, despite individual brilliance
I think they are rounding into form.
The start of the year was high octane offensive. Poor defence. They recognize this and they go all defensiveness for a month.It’s not a strength but you could see both coach and players trying to get better defensively.
Last night I felt the outcome of the game was never in jeopardy. However, your points on process are valid, they still have improvement needed.
yesterday’s improvement was about taking care of your teammate. Watching for the dirty plays, the scrums, the BS. It was a form of team building and all players are affected by this.
As we see the pendulum swing back and forth, skill to grit, offence to defence, 5×5 play and special teams, sooner or later that pendulum will land in the Center on a well rounded team and team game.
ps/ I loved both Goose Loonies and Glory day!
I think for the last two months of last year and the past month this season, Woodcroft has clearly given them their “Muckler moment.” Sadly they had to re-learn it at the beginning of this season, but clearly the team knows how they have to play to win consistently.
Can’t say I agree that that Oilers aren’t improving their focus on reducing goals against. Sure there are going to be slips occasionally but overall as the season has progressed they are making big strides. Since the Christmas break, a stretch of 16 games, the Oilers key defensive metrics 5 on 5 are as follows:
GA/60: 2.18 – 7th lowest
xGA/60: 2.51 – 5th lowest
SCA/60: 26.8 – 6th lowest
HDCA/60 9.88 – Lowest in the league
With a full off season to prepare combined with new tenders and some other new personnel, Woody implemented a lot more changes in the Oilers game plan than he was able to on the fly mid last season. Combined with a lot of forward injuries, it took the Oiler till about Christmas to get more comfortable with the changes.
In fact a lot of these defensive metrics look similar all the was back to December 1, but a combination of self-inflicted wounds and the Oilers perhaps not as good yet at translating that better defense into offense (Oilers are scoring almost a goal per 60 more at 5 on 5 since the Christmas break than they did from Dec 1 to Dec 25) led to more inconsistent results. A pk at 84.3% since Christmas (including the 4 against by LA) compared to 71% for the December games prior to Christmas helps too and is another sign of a team focusing on reducing goals against.
It is a work on progress and Woody will continue to have the make improvements or tweaks but it seems to me, the players generally get it.
The Oilers have allowed 2 or less goals in regulation in 11 out of the last 16 games.
With respect, in my opinion, you are making WAY too many determinations based off of a single game after a 10-day break and discounting completely the team’s overall play in the last month, shit, 6 weeks.
Interesting to see Barrie lead the D-group in TOI. I had spoken before and during the break that his minutes were down materially and that I think he had been playing injured (he missed a few practices about a month ago as well). Perhaps the 10 days off did him a world of good.
We spoke before the game last night about getting Broberg some higher comp minutes and we saw that a bit last night. He played mostly against the Copp, Bergeen, Rasmusen, Perron – the middle six.
Lots of talk about Nurse/Ceci getting caved by the Bertuzzi/Larkin line and, well, they did. It wasn’t just them though – the entire top of the roster got caved by that line: McDavid, Drai, Kane, etc.
I don’t disagree with many that Nurse/Ceci is having its fair share of struggles. Numbers only tell us so much but numbers show us Nurse MUCH better without Ceci for a long stretch now.
Nurse has some struggle plays last night. Nurse also had 5-6-7 very very good physical, defensive and offensive plays last night.
Bertuzzi and Larken also got pushed around and punished last night. Earlier this season there would have been no push back but last night showed this team starting to play like a team. Nurse on Bertuzzi in the crease was golden!
I loved the Oilers game last night.
Detroit roiled out a game plan that has defeated Oilers in the past. Aggressively neutralize Connor and scrum it up to get The soul off their game.
That game plan can now be countered.
First, Kane is the best in the league at what he does. And others follow. Big Vince, Kostin, Nurse, even Kulak wanted a piece.
The push them around game plan was not effective.
Second, depth scoring. Wow
Finally, goaltending covered up for mistakes.
I think the Oilers just got better, well rounded, more tools. Looking good.
Kostin certainly didn’t have his best game last night during the play, but during a post whistle scrum when he got in Hronek’s face, who had been a belligerent pest all night, Hronek wanted no part of him. Kudos to him for maintaining control in that situation and not taking a penalty.
And as for the 2 penalties he did get charged for, I have no idea how Kostin ended up in the penalty box on the Sundqvist hook, it was either Janmark or Broberg in the vicinity, and the cross-checking penalty on Fabbri was as weak as as they come (Chelios expressed his disbelief on that call as well).
Bob S on the radio was flabbergasted by that super weak cross-checking call as well. I saw the replay on TV later – he hardly touched him. The ref who called it was pretty far away. Also, the penalty that Hyman drew was pretty questionable as well.
Messier and Hyman discussed the penalty and initially wondered if Hyman didn’t just fall too. Then they realized the call wasn’t for a trip or the stick on the leg, but that Rasmussen actually hooked Hyman on the hands as he was going by (he went for the stick lift but got him on the gloves), which caused Hyman to lose the puck before he fell. That seems to be one of the most called penalties this season.
Correction, Messier and Chelios, discussed the penalty on Hyman,
Would it not be better matchups if we finish 2nd or 3rd and play the teams in our division in the first round. The west is going to be a fantastic photo finish if it comes down to ties we have the edge. Wouldn’t it be funny if Calgary ties say L.A and Seattle but is eliminated because of the Gary point.
I often find myself wondering whether Ryan McLeod has more value as a 3C who can eat minutes, or moved up to a top six wing position.
A lot depends on tactics, but I think I’d rather deploy him with either 97 or 29 and move 93 to being distinctly the 3C. Tough call though.
One thing’s for sure – I enjoy having too many centers and not enough minutes for Holloway compared to hoping Ryan Smyth can somehow learn to play C. Remember those awful days? * shudder *
How about when Hall was going to learn to play center!
I just made the sound Sideshow Bob makes after stepping on a rake…
Over the last eleven games the Oil have extended their lead on the Avs by three points and have picked up four points on the Krak, six on the Kings, and ten points on the Kniggits. They also gained big ground on the Stars, Jets and Wild.
Give me another month like the last one, please, Sir.
And just to beat HH to the punch, Dom’s model at the Athletic now has the Oil edging out Seattle for top spot in Pacific… would play the fLames… can’t we just rush to the finish???
Do you actually believe he would bring that up?
Wait, the Flames?!? They aren’t currently in a playoff spot…
Turns out the most delicious part of Dom’s most recent projection is the Kings and their vaunted prospect pool missing the playoffs.
Goaltending has let them down.
They are apparently one of four teams who have inquired about Thatcher Demko.
Don’t forget about the five points on the flames!
That Virtanen guy:
https://canucksarmy.com/news/report-ex-canuck-jake-virtanen-on-the-outs-with-swiss-club-after-dust-up-with-teammate
I am even more glad the Oilers didn’t sign him after the tryout.
Slow learner that guy.
not as slow as some people post…
😉
Just catching up.
We bought a farm in October & I have been a little bit busy since what I know about living on a farm is basically nothing.
I started reading here a week or so ago but I missed most of the season so not much to offer.
About time you settled down lol.
A farm is a smart idea in this wacky New Normal, but that’s a heckuva project to be taking on at our age. Hope you’re a handy fella.
Long story and probably boring for most here but we bought a duplex with our son & his fiance. Had to be like that since agricultural land in B.C. is heavily protected with restrictions on 2nd houses and how large they can be.
He is going to be doing whatever it is he is going to do with the land. That said the side we took was the one the previous owner used as a rental so we pretty much gutted it and put it back together. Close to finished now but you are right. I am too old for this anymore.
We just decided that it was time to get out of the cities. Can’t see them getting better any time soon.
You’ve bounced around a bit these past couple years so it is great to hear you’ve settled on a location and are near family and away from our new urban madness. All the best, DEFMN. You were missed these past months (largely because all my philosophy jokes fell on deaf ears, lol).
He’s only 26 I think he gets another shot at the N.H.L level next year or the following year after the heat on him cools down.
I doubt it – he’s end of the bench filler at this point in the NHL. You gotta be “good in the room” and “not a distraction” if you’re only playing 5-10 minutes a night in the show. Otherwise, you wander the hinterlands of European hockey leagues.
He’s 26 now … his ship has sailed (off to Europe).
He was brutal during his PTO here. Doubt he ever makes it back to the NHL.
Poor Jake
Those definitely aren’t your grampa’s Red Wings, are they? Yzerman teams… they’re cooking with Crisco… greasy as all hell. Like there’s 20 Corey Perrys out there. Suter in particular is annoying.
I think we all should have learned last night the truth on Walman, though. Whenever he’s on the ice, he’s the weakest Red Wing out there. He plays with Seider, who is a tremendous player and together they see a lot of the Red Wing scoring lines. He’s a classic case of zoomed numbers.
But if you look at the scoring chances they allowed, Walman is usually the culprit, wandering away from the player in the crease a la Bouchard to
attack a player in a less dangerous position. The Foegele chance net-side in the 3rd that he could’ve cashed for the hattrick was all on Walman, for example. I have to say I found it pretty amusing that after last night the calls for Walman as a trade target increased.
Bouchard, btw, was equally awful last night.
Perron, Fabbri, Bertuzzi, Lindstrom, they’re all greasy.
I quite enjoyed the battles between Holloway and Perron in the face-off circle. Great learning experience for young Holloway.
The numbers, over a larger sample size than one game, tell a different story.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=DET&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2023-04-13&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8481542&p2=0&p3=8478013&p4=0&p5=0
That’s not even close to a full story. On ice metrics are driven by FIVE man units, largely the Fs. for eg, Walman is under 50% without either Seider or Larkin. With Larkin and without Seider, about a third of his without Seider number, he’s 66.53%.
And that’s if you can get me to agree that five man possession stats indicate the defensive prowess of one of the players on the ice. Which you can’t 🙂 . It’s a fifteen year old debate now and I know which side of the fence I stand on.
It seems like you’re only looking at one set of numbers and you don’t even articulate which metric that is. So your argument falls pretty flat.
Look at the defensive metrics for (Walman w/o Seider w/o Larkin) vs (Seider w/o Walman w/o Larkin). Walman ranks better in EVERY metric.
Look at the defensive metrics for (Walman w/o Seider with Larkin) vs (Seider w/o Walman with Larkin). Walman+ Larkin rank better in EVERY metric.
Look at the defensive metrics for (Seider with Walman) vs (Seider w/o Walman), you’ll see that Seiders results are better with Walman in EVERY metric.
You can argue that he’s not good defensively all you want, but at the end of the day you have nothing to back up your narrative.
I have no idea what metrics you have in your head, or believe indicates defensive success… and I’m not going to sit here and guess at your rhetorical flourishes.
I do know that the defenseman I saw last night did not look like a defensive stalwart, by any stretch, and considering he looked the poorest player on the ice out of the five out there, considering who the others were and their reputation, his numbers are getting zoomed, big time.
I notice too, that despite playing with Seider, Yzerman has yet to offer him an extension… I mean a guy putting up nearly 70% Corsi numbers and driving that number as you allege, that guy gets signed, not offered to all takers at the deadline.
In my head? I literally posted a link for you. But since you’re being obtuse, here are the categories I’m referring to:
CA/60
FA/60
SA/60
GA/60
xGA/60
SCA/60
HDCA/60
So, like, all of them. Walman shows better in every single one. The fact is that Detroit is better defensively when Walman is on the ice, including or excluding Seider, including or excluding Larkin.
Maybe it’s time to admit that you aren’t the authority you think you are when it comes to “eye test”.
You know this how?
Prospectorama!
Again, just a solitary prospect in action this night, but this time it’s Max Wanner who will be doing that hockey thing.
After his brief flirtation with the point-per-game mark, he has put up only two points (both helpers) in his last 10 GP. Can he make like Joni Mitchell and get off this schneid tonight? We will know once the pick drops @ 6 p.m. Clandonald time.
I feel like Derwent and Clandonald so close together is a little unfair.
The Clandonald Hall on NYE is a fine place to be, by the way.
Blame the settlers who founded those places. 😀
“Look at those jokers glued to that damn hockey game.”
-also Joni (who I adore, forever)
Given his own history of first acclimating to new leagues and then elevating his play, it will take a good two years for me to worry about Hollywood. Of course I was sure Benson would show his quality in some fashion, so maybe I’ll shut up and not jinx the kid.
So who comes out I wouldn’t mess with the 11/7. Janmark Nuge Kostin line has some real chemistry. McLeod Ryan and Holloway all looked good last night as well. Doesn’t Foegele relize the better he plays the better chance he gets traded since J.P and Yamo have less than zero value in the real world. As for Campbell his lifetime 87-47-15 is quite impressive all he does is win.
I think the Kostin/Nuge/Janmark chemistry is pretty over-stated by the masses and the media. They got absolutely caved last night and, well, over the course of their time together, have seen the puck go towards their net materially more often than the opposition net – to a tune of a 44% expected goal share. They run a real goal shore of 60% (9-6) based on a shooting percentage heater that’s now gone…..
I don’t mind the line but they get running around their own zone quite a bit (Kostin is a poor defensive zone structure player.
I don’t see Woody breaking them up any time soon as he sees Janmark as his trusted vet but, for me, as of now, the candidates for additional healthy scratches are: Janmark, Kostin, Ryan.
I love what Kostin brings – he has a presence with the puck and, of course, is a physical presence out there, but a game off here and there wouldn’t hurt him.
Kostin looks less shiny when he stops shooting at a 25% rate
Sure, of course.
I still like his game and him on the ice though.
He does have issues in the defensive zone structure game, and has a penchant for minor penalties but he’s big, fast, aggressive and skilled with a good shot. You can see the “first round pedigree” in his game and, even when not on a heater, he’s holding on to pucks, letting plays develop, etc., etc. He also remains very physical and adds the presence out there between and after the whistles.
I’m happy he’s on the team and he does contribute even when not scoring, in my opinion.
A healthy Oilers lineup has a couple of legit NHL forwards not playing.
I’ve been pretty firmly on the Chychrun train.
With Ceci’s struggles, Matt Dumba might make more sense. Nurse needs help on that right side.
Or does getting Chychrun take enough pressure off the Nurse pair that you can run Bouchard there and Ceci with Chychrun.
I’m not hot on either guy, we have plenty of offense from the D. We need a mobile, 2-way lefty who leans towards the D side of the game.
I think they should set their targets at ‘good defenceman’ instead of getting lost on perfect fit.
Winger for Draisaitl should be on the list too.
Sure, but “good defenseman” will cost an arm and a leg to acquire, and likely eats a sizable chunk of precious cap space. Why get someone who doesn’t add as much value as his acquisition cost/ cap hit due to duplication of skills?
Better to spend the assets & cap on achieving balance.
God did I hate 97s defensive game last. It was like greatest hits of his worst tendencies. Lazy coverage, soft coverage, slow to read or react, cheating out of the zone, zero structure on PK.
Saying that, my concern level on this player is zero, nil, zilch just thought it was worth a comment.
That line didn’t have their best last night, maybe too much going on. Kane was the best of the trio. you know what? The Depth and Campbell won the game, that is beautiful to hear.
He was just off altogether last night
Played defence like it was still the All-Star Game.
Haha,he definitely didn’t seem to have his normal fire in his eyes. Enjoyed your comment with a good chuckle.
Both McDavid and Draisaitl seem to neglect their defensive coverage when they’re together. That’s why we all like to see unicorns – the team is so much harder to play against.
I’m also not a fan that Drai seems to only look for Connor in the O zone. Can’t make it that easy on the D. Keep ‘em guessing
I think both of those guys were feeling the effects of traveling from Florida to Edmonton and then back to Detroit over the past few days. I find travelling from West to East particularly difficult to adjust to, so I wasn’t surprised that neither guy appeared sharp last night.
Over the course of the last 3 seasons (including the current season), McDavid/Drai are 4.51 G/60 – I’m not sure anything they do while on the ice together is making it easy to defend…..
Also 6.58GF/60 (!!) and a 69% goal share together in their last 3 playoff years.
Far too easy on the opposition.
Holloway looks determined to contribute
Wings
A very good outcome – 2 pts and no injuries (that we know of) to any Oiler players. No team can play 82 regular season games like they are playoff games without significantly increasing the chance of injury. The team, other than 97 / 29, played to their potential with great contributions from the bottom 6 (also Kane and The Nuge).
I do not see any reason to worry about two former Hart winners getting their act together very shortly.
The team is in a great spot, although I was suprised that the VGK spanked the Predators last night, to get into 2nd place by the end of February.
Flyers
The Flyers are 1-2-2 in their last 5 and 4-4-2 in their last 10. Of their 4 wins they have two wins against current playoff teams (Washington / Jets).
I see another 5-2 win for the Oilers.
The Bruins play that way every game. Minus the brawling. But that’s the commitment level required to be a top 5 team. No games off, be ready to skate, play smart. Hyman can do it, Ryan isn’t inconsistent, everyone else can show up ready to play every game, if they choose to
Did Boston play that way when they lost 4-1 to Carolina or were shut out 3-0 by Seattle or lost in a SO to Ottawa or lost in regulation to Arizona, etc.?
No, the Bruins aren’t at their best ever game, just like the Oilers aren’t just like the TBL aren’t (who lost to the Sharks AFTER being blow-out by a state rival, 7-1).
Campbell was great. Team really had a poor last 15 minutes in the first. 3 of those posts had Campbell beat. But they came out strong in the 2nd.
Chippy hockey game. They sure do not like Kane. Could be major fireworks next week.
Very nice to see the rest of the team picking up the slack when your 2 top dogs looked tired and were just not into the game .
The PK is definitely picking up steam. I like Kane on it with McD.
Imagine how good it will be if we add a faceoff winning PK guy at the deadline
Desharnais was so fun to watch grabbing guys in the scrums. Nurse played mean last night and we need a lot more of that
Good Win
Holland should pick up ROR and Acciari in a 2-fer deal.
Jake Walman is the solution, as we saw last night. Pending UFA making just over a million, Seravalli thinks it would take a 2nd to land him. I think thats a little light… would Detroit accept a 2nd + Puljujarvi?
Detroit Red Wings’ Jake Walman Is Proving His Worth (thehockeywriters.com)
Walman would fit right in to the age group of the team. Seems like another Kulak though, not sure if thats the ‘move the needle’ extra boost we need like a Manson last year. I think that’s shopping in the right aisle though.
Wary of trading with Stevey again, rinsed last time.
What are the thoughts on Maatta? A cheaper pick up, playing well this year… might be a good fill in.. though his wheels arent the best
hmm maybe not, I just looked a little deeper…
Yeah, I don’t think you can expect Maatta to win top-4 minutes.
I think he’s better defensively than Kulak. At least, his stats this year certainly show that. I really liked his gap control and defensive reads last night too.
What stats are you looking at that suggest Maatta is better defensively this season?
Walman. Not Maatta.
Thanks – I didn’t read carefully enough that your second post was a response to Predendergast and not your own post about Maata.
He’s only played 109 games. I think they need more butt hair
This was the game Jack Campbell became an Oiler. 8 straight wins for him, but this is the first time I felt like he was the deciding factor.
According to the Cult of Hockey you are correct. We haven’t had a goalie steal a game yet this year. By their metrics stealing a game is when you are out “chanced” by four or more and win.
We’ve been “goalied” a number of times (Lukas Dostal!) but haven’t once goalied another team until last night. Chances were 17-12 Wings.
I was going to post along the same lines.
It was clear that Campbell was the better goalie last night but to me, I didn’t think he “stole the game” but my subjective view on what “stealing a game” means.
The Cult takes out the subjectivity and has objective metrics on what a game steal by a goalie is and good on Jack to steal that game.
He stole one in Tampa early in November. All the bad bounces early in the year are starting to even out. Add to that a new team (city) getting used to his D and new equipment and Bob’s your Uncle. You know Campbell is seeing the puck well when he was able to react to a tipped shot masterfully with his right pad.
i am not a nurse fan,but I can appreciate what he brings to the game. My problem with Nurse is that he seems to make the same mistakes game in and game out. As our top dman,I think this is an issue for us. Sometimes I think he needs to just simplify his game. I also think he should play with a good puck moving partner as I think that is one of his weaknesses. Jmo😄
I think Nurse’s issues are passing (he can pass but is inconsistent) and walkabout tendencies. Both blue can’t chase, as happened last night on the first goal. Nurse chips it to McDavid, BOTH he and Ceci need to haul ass into the high slot for the next wave of Wings. Never happened. Aggressiveness isn’t always a blessing.
I do agree that a better passer as partner would work and wrote about it today at The Athletc.
agree here too. Now in saying all that, I wonder with a better (top 4D) as a partner, would Nurse be overly aggressive as often? then mistakes would be less?
Great job as usual Lowetide! This and ‘Lowetide and Jamieson’ are a staple while I work 🙂
His passing is a bit off ( nice one last night) . He played really mean hockey last night. When he plays like that he is very effective in the D game . Be nice to see that Nurse a lot more
Nurse/Bouchard would work as Bouchard is very good at zone exits. The problem with the D isn’t Nurse, it is Ceci playing too high in the lineup.
Best Nurse/Bouchard moment last night was when Bouch coughed up the puck right in the slot & Nurse rushed over & eliminated the guy with a crunching check.
And on a later sequence, while people loved the hard take down on Bertuzzi after Campbell froze the puck, the more important play was him boxing out/engaging with Bertuzzi during the shot so that Bertuzzi couldn’t deflect it and so Campbell could see and concentrate on the shot.
So if both Nurse and Ceci immediately haul ass into the high slot, who covers Larkin when the puck comes to him in the corner on that play? Ceci was in the corner checking Larkin off the puck that Nurse was able to chip and had to stay in the corner to engage Larkin when the puck almost immediately came to Larkin.
To my eye, the bigger errors in the whole sequence were McDavid doing a fly by on Seider after the Nurse chip and Leon’s slow return to the Oilers end of the ice.
If McDavid physically engages with Seider for that puck or even stops there, it then becomes a likely 50/50 battle and either Nurse and Raymond join the fray or Nurse can can stay with Raymond as he turns back towards the slot and the rest of the Oilers have more time to get in better position. Instead, because McDavid doesn’t really engage Seider at all, Nurse decides he has to but Seider dumps into the corner to Larkin, who hits the circling Raymond for the down low 2 on 1. It’s possible Nurse compounded McDavid’s error by going at Seider, but if he doesn’t Seider just walks out from the boards with the puck. Tough choice for him to have to make.
Maybe Kane could have stayed better with Bertuzzi, who got the jump towards the net when Kane was initially turned to head up ice, when Seider broke up the break out. That Kane was in view on the play and Leon only came in frame very late is curious since both Kane and Leon were behind the Wings net, Kane had to pick up his stick and still managed to get back to the Oilers end well before Leon came back. Had Leon hustled back on that play he could have been in the area on the boards with Seider. Now since they never showed Leon and Kane coming back, maybe Leon was hustling, but slowed to turn back towards the Winds end when he thought McDavid was going to get by Seider with the puck.
As Woody says its the details.
And since it seems after a 5-2 Oilers road win, the big thing seems to be to over analyze the Oilers goals against and mistakes that caused them, on the second goal I don’t believe that McDavid or Leon were the real culprits on that goal.
McDavid losing the puck was not the critical breakdown on the play. He lost control of the puck by the face off circle, fairly deep in the Wings end, and after he lost control it got passed back to just above the Wings goal line 170 feet from the Oilers net. Hardly a high risk turnover on McDavid’s part.
The other 3 forwards, Nuge, Hyman and Draisaitl all followed McDavid into the Wings end, and as the 4th forward in, Leon came in a little deep. However, if McDavid had not lost control, the Oilers would have had an outmanned situation of either 4-2 or 4-3 deep in the Wings end. And to Leon’s credit, on this play, he bust his ass back to the Oilers end and was in the Oilers slot to defend the 2 on 1. He couldn’t go at Velano on the play because Rasmussen came out of the penalty box and streaked in unmarked to create the 2-1. Nurse did a good job of keeping Seider out high in hopes of defensive reinforcements that did not come in sufficient numbers other than Leon.
The advantage gained by Veleno on the line change occurred because Hyman, while heading back to the Oilers bench engaged with Suter who had hit McDavid. Both Hyman and Suter then immediately changed, but Veleno (Suter’s replacement) coming off the far bench was able to get a significant jump on Foegele (Hyman’s replacement). As mentioned above, that Veleno was able to come in close for the shot was created because of Rasmussen coming out of the penalty box to create the 2-1. If Hyman had just gone straight to the bench, Foegele likely would have been beside Veleno instead of trailing him.
And I find it laughable when people accuse the Oilers top PP unit of being selfish for staying out for the whole 2 minutes. They don’t stay out there for the whole 2 minutes if Woody doesn’t give them the green light to do so. It was a power play at the end of a period, so none of those forwards are playing another shift until after the break.
Agree on the simplification, trying too hard mistakes happen 🙂 and he does need a better partner. I like Ceci mind you. We have 1 top 4 Dman (Nurse) and a borderline 1 in Ceci who is more like a 4/5. Another top 4 will go a long way. Bro looked decent last night, got some wheels.
This has for me been a season of hard head shaking at Nurse, at whom I’ve always shook my head but generally kind of believed in, even at 9M.
I now wonder if the cap commitment to Nurse will be a major crimp in the march to Stanley. Can’t have your best, most expensive Defender playing the way he has this season. Just can’t.
For me as well,I do think we need another left dman to take some minutes and pressure off of Nurse. I think hockey sense is Nurse’s biggest weakness as we all can see his physical skills are excellent.
19 minutes per game at 5 on 5, 37% of those minutes vs. elites, none of them with a D-partner that is anywhere near a legit top pairing guy, while starting only 40% of his face-offs in the offensive zone and having a 52% goal differential, plus almost 3 minute per game on the PK (the vast majority of which is again PP1) – that is a major crimp to Stanley due to an overpay that equals like 2% of the cap?
For all the Nurse haters/whiners out there. Just watch the game. Is he perfect? of course not. Last night he had a great game despite carrying Ceci who is a 4 D, despite carrying that terrible first line of 97, the Lion and Kane. Nurse was not the issue last night ladies and gents. He was hitting a la Trouba and made some great headman passes. A few mistakes here and there but nothing to write home about.
Get over yourselves.
Ok.
🙂
Good morning to you too.
‘Just watch the game’ isn’t really the MO I’ve seen here but to each their own.
I like Nurse’s game and know his importance to the team, yesterday was not a shining example. The one play I didn’t like was the jailbreak on the 2nd goal against. He gave up the line, didn’t engage the attacker, then let him get off the wall into the middle of the ice where he had all the options as the Oil were changing. If he pinned him to the wall, support would have had time to get back.
Soft, lazy play. That said, our standard of him is higher because money. His bullying of Bertuzzi was welcome.
Most recently, Trouba threw big hits against the Flames and was a minus 2 with terrible metrics. I prefer my dmen to keep the puck out first.
Fair enough, I got a little hyped up about it. Apologies. Exactly. I added the Trouba in there from a comment about how he should be more like Trouba. lol well maybe he is! haha
My point would be, we know he is overpaid (most are) Why keep revisiting what is known.
Every player makes mistakes every game. Nurse did last night, he also made some very good plays.
Trouba hasn’t exactly been the best Rangers d-man for the last several years, but he certainly is the most noticeable.
The “soft, lazy play” stood out because Nurse (& Draisaitl) were the ony Oilers on the screen while 3 forwards changed at once after a 2-minute powerplay shift. He was lliterally the only defenceman on the ice when Detroit returned to full strength with 15 seconds left in the period. Brutal game management by players who really should know better.
Hey look it’s a toxic positive antagonistically telling people how to fan. How thoughtful.
lol…damn right!
I’m as hard as anyone here on Nurse … that said, I thought he had a terrific game late last night. Don’t know who pissed in his cornflakes, but I wish they would do it more often, because the mean, nasty version of Nurse is worth every penny of his contract.
The first goal was not so much a problem with Nurse specifically, but rather a problem of the whole 5 man unit working together as a unit where each player takes care of their assignment to clear the zone.
We’ve been seeing the starfish much less in January and now into February and I like it … he’s staying on his feet and bodily taking the opposition players out of the play.
I would observe that this season Nurse is rocking an atrocious vapour lock per 60.
Spit out my coffee when I read this 😂😂😂
Awesome and seconded