The numbers tell the story. Edmonton’s special teams are a net positive (69-53), so when the five-on-five numbers shine like a diamond, that’s a win unless the opposition goalie is Dom Hasek or the Oilers goalie is opposite Dom Hasek. Jack Campbell wasn’t good enough last night and that’s a concern. The big summer signing was crawling from the wreckage of a tough start to the season, maybe this is a blip on the radar. Edmonton needs this player to be .915SP or better. He is .888 for the year.
Either the Oilers are a better team 7D-11F or Vincent Desharnais is a helluva lot more than a 7D. Which is it? https://t.co/FPzcoKHgrq
On the road to: DET, PHI, OTT, MTL (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
At home to: DET, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
On the road to: COL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
On the road to: PIT, CBJ (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: BOS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
February expected result: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
February actual result: 2-1-2, 6 points in five games
January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
Oilers in 2022-23: 30-19-6, 66 points in 55 games
You can’t call it a disaster, because Detroit is a good team and the Oilers played well. Jack Campbell played well enough in the third period, making one massive save off Tyler Bertuzzi, but that’s a game Edmonton should have won. In an 82-game season, you’ll get a few of these and Campbell is 17-8-2 in 27 decisions.
SUMMARY
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored twice, now has 26 on the season (26-40-66) and is chasing his 2018-19 campaign (28-41-69 in 82 games) but not for long. 2-1-3, three shots, one HDSC, three takeaways, one penalty that riled him up but looked like it was worth two minutes. Nuge played his usual two-way game (meaning excellent) and I think he might be playing the best hockey of his career right now.
Connor McDavid was dangerous all night despite DRW giving him very little clean air. 0-2-2 on the night, eight shots, one HDSC, two TK. Now at 99 points. Belongs in a higher league but there isn’t one.
Zach Hyman was a whirling dervish as always, one assist, two shots, five HDSC. He’s a machine. Drew a penalty, took several hits, takes a licking but keeps on ticking. 27-37-64 in 54 games.
Evander Kane had four shots, created some chaos and had some looks on a line that didn’t look quite right. I expect Kailer Yamamoto will be in for the NYR game.
Leon Draisaitl had a goal, four shots, no giveaways but plenty of give a damn. I liked his game and he damn near scored in the shootout, too. On pace for 47-74-121, I think he’ll hit 50 goals for the third time.
Mattias Janmark didn’t do a thing with his elevated role, looked better when relegated to the fourth line with Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway. I’m a fan, he has some nice things, and he’s 6-3 on-ice goals at five-on-five in his last 11 games. I think he’s a little vulnerable.
Klim Kostin had an assist, a HDSC, took a penalty for falling down and drew one, too. I thought this was his best game in some time and likely solidifies his role in the top nine for the next several weeks. Don’t rule out the Oilers trading for a RW, Patrick Kane’s name is snealing into the trade rumours now.
Derek Ryan scored a huge goal using that big brain to tip the puck. Three shots, one HDSC, GV, TK, won seven of 11 in the dot on a night when pucks were going in off the draw. Is he jack-of-all-trades Stan and Jerry the garbage man?
Jesse Puljujarvi had two shots, one HDSC, his line outshot opponents 7-2 at five-on-five and he was 1-0 goals in the discipline. I think he earned a trip up the depth chart, may see waivers today instead. Sail on down the line, ain’t it funny how the time can go.
Dylan Holloway had two shots, TK, hit people, had a look on a rebound and showed good wheels. His line didn’t play much but did play well.
Ryan McLeod had two shots, two GV, won four of five on the dot. I liked his game, he had speed, determination but lacked finish and high-end skill. He’s better with Holloway and vice versa.
Warren Foegele had a good night but nothing to show for it. Three shots, two HDSC, a GV but two TK so good on the night. He’s 1.45 pts-60 five-on-five, has a 50 percent goal share in the discipline, and solid rel numbers.
Darnell Nurse had two giveaways and looked imprecise defensively. He did have four takeaways and a couple of reasonable looks offensively, but his decisions with the puck caused the play to die on a few occasions. He was 12-6 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC at five-on-five, spent 10 minutes up against the slippery Larkin-Bertuzzi-Kubalik trio. He is 181-163 in five-on-five goal differential over the last three seasons.
Cody Ceci had two shots, a blocked shot and looked more involved with the puck than normal. Edmonton needs him to chip in a little offensively, he hasn’t done it much this season. I like the player, he needs to have a little better results in the season’s home stretch.
Brett Kulak had three shots on goal, a GV and three hits. While he was on the ice five-on-five, it was 15-5 shots, 5-1 HDSC and 0-1 goals. Hockey. His rel numbers are in the red after five straight seasons in the black. Hey hey, my my.
Tyson Barrie had an assist, two shots, hit somebody and blocked a couple shots. He is not my favourite player-type (too much chaos, not quite fast enough) but the Oilers are getting a srong season from him. On pace for a 54-point season, he is 143-129 in five-on-five goal differential since coming to Edmonton.
Philip Broberg had an assist, a shot, a couple of breakaways and showed some real physical violence in the game. I don’t mean smashmouth, but he lowered the boom on DRW forwards when necessary. Good sign. Puck bounced off of him on the Red Wings’ second goal, but these things happen.
Evan Bouchard picked up an assist, two shots, looked like he had room to wheel and good boots last night. Edmonton has a valuable piece here, his rel numbers both relax the mind and elevate the soul like the Ave Maria. Not trading him is a quality option.
Jack Campbell owes it to his team to be better.
OPEN ALL NIGHT (SAIL ON, JESSE PULJUJARVI)
Your eyes get itchy in the wee wee hours Sun’s just a red ball risin’ over them refinery towers Radio’s jammed up with gospel stations Lost souls callin’ long distance salvation Hey Mr. DJ, won’t you hear my last prayer? Hey ho rock ‘n’ roll, deliver me from nowhere
There isn’t much left to say. Sometimes things don’t work out and sometimes new towns are for the best. I’ve picked up stakes and moved along many times in my life and there’s a strange mixture of hope and anxiety that provides enormous fuel for the road. I know there’s plenty of fuel for Mr. Puljujarvi, hope he finds deliverance. Make every damned acidic word written or uttered look ridiculous young man. We won’t forget you.
I sure hope Anderson doesn’t go to Calgary if he’s on his game he’s the definition of a power forward in the same sentence as Sea Bass and Keith Tkachuk.
1. Karlsson turns 33 on May 31, and by the time his contract expires, he’ll be 37.
2. Karlsson has a full no-move clause. If you acquire him, he might not want to be moved again down the line and you will be inheriting the full four years left on his contract.
3. Karlsson scored 63 points in 71 games his last season in Ottawa (2017-18)
4. In his first 211 games in San Jose before this season, he scored 28 goals and 115 assists for 143 points.
5. He’s on pace to score over 100 points this season.
Let all of the above sink in for 30 seconds.
I honestly believe the only team interested in Karlsson, at this trade deadline, is the Oilers. If his contract looked different (say he was expiring after this season), there would be a lineup around the block for his services.
He finishes the article by saying he thinks the price is too high and EDM may want to go back to looking at Jakob.
Interesting read.
jp
February 17, 2023 7:55 am
So last night Vegas and Seattle ahead won games, while Calgary and Nashville behind (and also Winnipeg ahead) lost games.
Western Conference standings by games over/under .500 this morning.
Dallas +16
Vegas +15
Winnipeg +14
Seattle +13
Los Angeles +12
Edmonton +11
Colorado +10
Minnesota +7
——-
Calgary +6
Nashville +4
St. Louis +1
Vancouver -9
Arizona -9
San Jose -11
Anaheim -15
Chicago -16
Oilers today are 4 wins back of Vegas for 1st in the Pacific, and 5 wins up on Calgary who are out of a playoff spot today.
Couple of big tests coming up tonight and Sunday for your Oilers.
Munny 2.0
February 17, 2023 12:02 am
It’s late and no one is going to read this, but here’s my trade proposal. Keep in mind here, the Oilers are under no obligation to help a division rival successfully rebuild, so I would expect the Sharks to bend over backwards to help us solve this problem for them. In other words, the only way to see this through is to grind like a mofo.
So I would explain to Mr. Grier that I have to come out of this with some cap space or else making the deal is pointless for me, since I can’t make other moves to cover the players I’ve just traded. So if they want to make a deal, I have to come out of this with positive cap space. End of story.
Here’s the deal I’d pitch:
To San Jose:
Barrie, Tyson
Puljujärvi, Jesse
Bourgault, Xavier
Kesselring, Michael
Klefbom, Oscar
Murray, Ryan
Smith, Mike
2023 2nd round pick (EDM)
2024 1st round pick (EDM)
To: Edm
Erik Karlsson, 50% retained.
This leaves the Oil with a 21 man roster and $625,167 in real pro-rated cap space to use at the deadline. No other moves were made and Yams is activated on my CapFriendly roster.
I don’t move on the retention. I insist it’s the only way I can do the deal. If they can figure out a way where I come out ahead and they retain less, they can please put it in front of me. And I’ll remind them that if they wait till the off-season, then Karlsson will use his NMC to control going to a contender, which means they will be taking salary back, and retaining regardless. If he forces it to one or two teams, it likely means eating a bad contract. I’m not trading any of that here.
Other than Barrie, everything the Sharks are taking on disappears after this season and there’s very little real money to be paid anyways, except to the actual roster players.
That’s my final offer, Rosie. Take it or leave it.
This results in $2,738,826 in deadline space*. Plenty for any RHC/W acquisition oft discussed: Acciari, Lafferty, Bjugstad. Bertuzzi with half-retained. Enough space for Kane, Toews, or ROR on double retention. Holland would have options.
Based on the leaked offer and the Brad Holland interview, I wonder if this over. We sent over a low-ball offer, no one else is interested and Grier said Karlsson’s got 4 more years, what’s the hurry.
I do not believe there is any leaked offer, just a game of telephone.
Side
February 16, 2023 10:52 pm
Huberdeau’s agent:
“Allan Walsh
@walsha
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. Also, negativity sucks the joy right out of players. cc:
@NHLFlames”
Huberdeau was a year away from free agency when he got traded. He would have been able to chose his destination. Almost like his agent should have advised him to wait and see if he liked Calgary before jumping at buckets of cash. I understand that his job is to get him the most money he can, and he did, so if he doesn’t like it now, shut and up and enjoy the next 8 years in Cowtown!
No way he would have gotten the money after a year in Calgary, so you take the money when it is on the table (like Lucic and the OIlers) and then wait for the Flames to trade you.
“Ken’s got a lot of balls in the air, and the one thing I do know is that Yamo is going to play in the game tomorrow”.
jp
February 16, 2023 7:52 pm
As far as I can tell the only detail we’ve got about a trade proposal between the Oilers and Sharks is Gregor’s mention of it yesterday (that the Oilers have made an offer for Karlsson).
The details of a specific proposal (attributed to Seravalli) were mentioned earlier in the thread, but I can’t see any mention of it anywhere. I listened to the DFO rundown (Seravalli and Gregor) from 4 hours ago and they don’t mention anything specific (Gregor spitballs what it might take, but there is no suggesting that’s what the teams have actually discussed).
Then I was thinking on Puljujarvi and that they still haven’t put him on waivers.
I figured initially they might just not want to risk losing him since he might be needed down the line (if Holland only nibbles at the deadline).
Then I thought, I guess they definitely couldn’t waive him if he’s part of a trade that’s been proposed. So that’s a possibility too.
Anyway, there doesn’t seem to be a ton on information out there (which is actually a good thing). Whatever ends up happening, pretty cool that Holland appears to be seriously looking at a number of high end pieces to try to improve the team.
I was referring to a different post earlier (still up I believe) mentioning the details of the Oilers proposal for Karlsson (attributed to Seravalli, though no tweet quoted). I spent some time looking for it, listened to Seravalli’s most recent podcast, and didn’t find any evidence of it.
I’m just trying to find what info actually is out there and figured passing on what is/isn’t legit might be of interest to some others. I should probably just get on Twitter so I can follow all the main sources directly.
40%-ish seems to be what everyone is talking about now. It makes sense since it’s kind of all the salary the Oilers can take on.
My post didn’t include Bouchard though, and I’d move a lot of other things before including Bouchard. Fair enough that Grier would be interested (maybe insistent), but this Sharks teardown is going to be a long process.
Bouch will be a year from UFA by the time Karlsson’s deal is up (Couture’s deal ends the same time, Vlasic a year earlier). So I wonder whether Grier would actually prefer quality draft picks to young NHLers. You’d think maybe it would be preferable for the next waive to be 21/22/23 in 3-4 years rather than 26 or 27. But who knows.
Edit: Also, Dixon’s trade doesn’t open enough cap space on it’s own. The Oilers would still need to trade Puljujarvi or whoever to run a 21-man roster.
A rumor by nature implies its not substantiated. If it has links and credit, how does one know if it is real or if it is false? After all, its a rumor, which is 50% of trade discussions. I don’t think Im understanding.
A great 30 minutes for the PGA tour – in a showcase group with Tiger, JT and Rory, Tiger birdies 16,17 and 18 to shoot 69
Great stuff
OriginalPouzar
February 16, 2023 5:30 pm
Listening to Brad Holland on Oilers Now from earlier today.
Its a very solid listen and I will encourage all to listen.
He certainly wasn’t shy to, seemingly, try to lower some expectations speaking about important moves not necessarily being big moves – they spoke alot about big swings and misses in the past, ensuring the move helps the team in an area of need, ensuring not blocking important development and about “constant tinkering”.
Bob: So, what do you think you need?
BH: I think you always need depth, that’s an important thing. Our offence, our forwards are exceptional scorers driven by two unbelievable talents – you can always lengthen the lineup…………. (Brad rambles for three minutes)…. that’s a long winded way of answering your question. What do we need? We need to get deeper. We need to get this group every opportunity to win as soon as possible. We are going to be as specific as possible, identifying our weaknesses and adjusting to them.
I can’t remember a trade target discussed for any team that has been so outwardly unanimous amongst the analysts and pundits than ‘the Oilers should get Karlsson’ brigade.
If the Oilers talk themselves out of it… for ‘depth’ they better be right. It better not be Gaetan Haas kind of depth. Sometimes you can be the smartest man in the room and still have the wrong idea. In all my years, I’ve learned overwhelming consensus carries weight, so I am skeptical if they think they know better than everyone else.
HEY, enough of the gaetan haas slander. gater was a very good defensive forward who offered no offense. quick, smart, and decent on the pk.
Redbird62
February 16, 2023 5:05 pm
Woody giving props today to Derek Ryan. He came up in Woody’s presser in part because Ryan was one of the players interviewed after practice.
Ryan has 9 goals (6th on the team), 8 at even strength and one shortie and has been scoring points at a rate of 1.57 per 60. And he didn’t any of those goals with Connor and only 1 with Leon. He also has a 55% on ice goal share.
Not bad for a guy who was considered as a tweener by some on here at the start of the season. Evidence suggests he is still a pretty solid full time NHLer. He may need to sit out the odd game down the stretch to be fresher for the playoffs though.
Not to say Ryan is irreplaceable at the deadline, if they grab another depth right shot centerman, but he has been a good depth player for the team thus far this season.
Remember when we were going to acquire Norris trophy D-man PK Subban? His passes to McDavid and Hall were going to win us a Stanley Cup.
All it was going to cost us was 4OV (i.e. Pierre-Luc Dubois), Oscar Klefbom, and a struggling young prospect named Leon Draisaitl.
If that offer was on the table (some say it was), it got nixed when Jarmo passed on JP and took PLD 3OV, which meant Montreal was no longer interested in our 4OV.
As disappointing as JP has been with that 4OV pick….losing Drai would have been a lot more disappointing.
The supposed PK Subban trade was right before the 2016 draft, that was the 9th year in a row the Oilers missed the playoffs.
This is 2023 where the Oilers were just in the conference finals and the entire conference looks open. This is 100% a better situation to swing for the fences.
That would have been an awful trade but does not mean this would be one.
You are purposely excluding this season which is by FAR the most important. Each season back has less and less statistical impression on what will happen moving forward.
This season Karlsson has 73 points (1.33ppg) to Barries 37 .
Last 2 seasons Karlsson has 108 (1.03ppg) to Barries 77
Last 3 seasons Karlsson has 130 (0.83) to Barries 125
Last 4 seasons Karlsson has 170 (.80) to Barries 164
Karlsson is a completely different offensive weapon than Barrie and if you cant see that just watching them play let alone looking at the numbers then there will never be a valid trade in your eyes. If you want to make an argument on injuries youre more than welcome to point out availability but when Karlsson is playing he is ELITE, when Barrie is playing he is good.
Karlssons 2020-2021 season was a disaster by his standards only putting up 22 points in 52 games. Unknown why but most players on the Sharks had a bad season that year (except Kane hoorah). Its easy to forget though that Burns and Karlsson were both in the same role. Offensive right handed dmen both vying for the same opportunities and this is his first season in San Jose being exclusively the guy.
Barrie has always been the main offensive weapon. He will not have a better opportunity than his career he has gone from team to team playing with elite talent Mackinnon/Matthews/Marner/McDavid/Drai. Could not ask for better playing conditions than what he has received.
I love Barrie but if hes involved in a reasonable trade for Karlsson I am driving him to the airport.
My point was that this season is a ridiculous statistical outlier for Karlsson, likely partially motivated by the prospect of getting out of Dodge.
Karlsson will still be a reasonably good player next year, but I don’t think he will be worth anywhere near his salary, nor what we would trade for him.
It reminds me of another ridiculous outlier season: William Karlsson’s first year in Vegas.
“Buy high, sell low” is not the watchword of a successful organization. It used to be the watchword of the Edmonton Oilers. I hope we’re beyond that.
And I find it really odd how you seem to be denying how good Karlsson has been basically every other year of his career.
He plays 4-6 min a night more than Barrie. His 5v5 scoring in the last 5 season is on totally another level (1.50 vs 1.16 P/60 iirc). His on ice impacts are extremely strong. If you look at Dom’s model, even with the injuries Karlsson has been around 3.0 GSVA every season, which is a $10M+ defenseman.
Most folks here are not simply focusing in Karlsson’s current season, even if you’re trying to reduce the arguments to that.
That’s completely false – not once have I denied how good Karlsson has been throughout his career. My issue is the use of THIS YEAR’S stats to ascertain value, which is what Ryan was doing. Yes he masked it a little by combining this year with last year, but the net effect is that it portrays Karlsson in the most positive possible light, when the reality is that he has NEVER posted these kind of numbers in his career before this year and the probability is that he never will again.
So all analyses of Karlsson should omit this season?
I assume you’re not suggesting that, but how should folks approach this without being accused of being “blinded by the statistical anomaly that is Karlsson’s 22-23 season”?
To be real, I don’t think there is any actual evidence of any single asset being included/offered. There has been zero actual intel on what the Oilers are willing to offer and its all been speculation, even from the likes of Seravelli and Gregor, right?
Yes, absolutely. Though we do know from Gregor that a trade offer has apparently been extended.
Harpers Hair
February 16, 2023 4:39 pm
So according to Dom’s model, it’s likely 5 Pacific teams make the playoffs and it seems like playoff seeding may come down to a lucky goal or a muffed save.
EDM 100.9
VGK 100.5
SEA 100.5
LAK 98.6
CAL 97.9
Tonights schedule promises to tighten things up even more:
DET@ CAL
PHI @SEA
SJS@VGK
All three of the Pacific teams are favoured to win and when the nights over, all of the five contenders will have played 55 games.
It’s almost like starting the season over and perhaps deadline additions and/or injuries will play an outsized role in the final standings.
LOL “playoff seeding may come down to a lucky goal or a muffed save”–often I find your trolling tedious, but I thought this line was quite inspired. Well done!
Last edited 1 year ago by Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve
I am wondering how golden knights keep together with atone gone though. There’s not really even a winger on selling team remotely close to him in my head.
Yeah, I’m not sure they could find a replacement but if/when they place him on LTIR, they have $9.5 million in cap space for acquisitions.
They’re pretty short on trade capital but that has never stopped them before.
Primetime
February 16, 2023 4:37 pm
Interesting to hear Colton Parayko’s name whispered in trade rumours now.
Just curious what people think. I believe most of us would agree that Karlsson is on a different tier of defencemen than anyone else.
However, if the Oilers checked down, what would help the team more? A 1B LHD to help limit Nurse’s minutes (Chychrun) or a better 1RD that may actually enhance Nurse’s ability to continue to take on huge minutes against elites (Parayko).
Parayko is obviously a better defenseman than Ceci.
If you look though, Parayko is playing similar minutes (QoC and zone starts) to Ceci and also losing them.
Parayko does play about 3 minutes more per game, and I think that means something, but they are being used in similar ways. And neither one is shining.
Parayko is also a shade older, signed for twice as much, and for 3 times a long.
I haven’t dug in to it too much but what about the fact that Parayko is the alpha on that pair and Ceci isn’t the alpha on his pair and is being pulled along by Nurse (Nurse’s numbers go up and up and up without Ceci this season)?
No offence to Nick Leddy but, like Ceci, I don’t consider him a legit tough minutes top pairing d-man.
I haven’t dug into Parayko’s partners either, but it could be a factor.
I know he’s been underwater for more than just this season though, so I don’t think it’s simply ‘Leddy’ (and I should clarify I’m talking about each of their results relative to team, so underwater relatively).
On Nurse and Ceci’s WOWY’s, I think a big part of that is that Nurse is playing easier minutes when he’s not with Ceci. Ceci is selectively removed from the pairing for the softer minutes. Ceci has certainly struggled this season as well, but I don’t think those WOWYs should be taken at face value.
You can’t drop a woot over something that hasn’t happened! You can’t do that! Do you know how many times i refereshed my Karlsson google search because of your woot? You are killin me here!
Kevin Woodley was on the PDOcast yesterday and mentioned that from the clear sight analytics data that when one goalie lets in a low danger scoring chance the team loses 87% of the time. Case in point Campbell last night.
Anyone who has played sports knows how deflating that is
It’s a road back mentally and disrupts a portion of the game. Or all of it
Redbird62
February 16, 2023 3:03 pm
With the trade, deadline and the tight race, there hasn’t been as much time to sit back and marvel a little bit about what McDavid continues to do. The rest of the stars were gushing about him at the all star game.
Back on October 12, McDavid blew past 700 points in 488 games, which was 6th fastest all time (Kurri was 5th at 483). Only 4 months and 54 games later, McDavid is on the verge of passing 800 points. Kurri is currently still 5th fastest to 800, but it took him 558 games to get there. McDavid is at 796 points in 542 games, so its a pretty safe bet he will go under that number by several games. It would be great if he bagged at least 4 against the Rangers to get there and help with a victory.
OriginalPouzar
February 16, 2023 2:37 pm
Good to hear Woody be straight up for a chance and say straight up that Yamamoto is playing tomorrow.
Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
flyfish1168
February 16, 2023 2:28 pm
It is not an easy job to be a professional sports league GM. No one is willing to help you out. They rather throw an anchor at you than a life jacket. Everyone is probably waiting to get JP more nothing or to give them something to take him of our hands
Woodcroft asked about maintenance days for those people not at practice (i.e. Jesse) and sure looked like he was trying to prevent a shit-eating grin at 19 seconds.
Wow. Impossible to say what was on his mind at that moment, but there was definitely an inner “tee her hee” quickly followed by a serious “yes, go on”.
Credit where credit is due. OP has been all over this scenario.
Woodcroft says Yamamoto is playing tomorrow. If Puljujarvi or Foegele (or someone else of similar cap hit) aren’t traded, two of waivers-exempt Broberg, Desharnais & Holloway could be demoted later today or tomorrow
Quote Tweet
OriginalPouzar
@coopsie39
·
1h
Replying to @DNBsports
Or they send down TWO non-waiver players (Holloway and Deharnais) and run with a 20-player roster for a game…..not happening.
If someone gets injured in or after the Rangers game and can’t play Sunday, the Oilers would have to play Colorado with only 17 skater and 2 goalies. Only after that game, they can then use an emergency call up for the following one.
Exactly this is no way to run a team we’ve all seen a game with 2 players from the same team injuried, then what? Holland needs to trade one or two of the 3M Squad that’s draining our Cap.
Well, then the Oilers can back-fill the lineup with emergency call-ups (after playing one game short) but, of course, that is FAR from ideal.
Yes, Holland is actively working on roster changes and that will include trades of cap out – we know this. We also know he’s being diligent, he’s being patient and is looking for specific types of player and trying to get them at certain costs.
Screaming “Trade Jesse or Trade Yamo” is fine but I’m glad the GM is being diligent and patient and has no panic in him.
He’s had all year to make a trade is he speaking with his Brethren by Pony Express. It took Holland less than a Fortnight to buyout Sekera who’s Cap hit would allow us to have a full Squad.
He bought out Sekera on the deadline to buy players out for the year.
Again, the potential trade of Jesse (which, from accounts is out there), is part of the overall cap structuring and team upgrade puzzle between now and March 3.
I have little doubt he could pull the trigger on a Jesse trade with a simple phone call but he’s using the time that he has to ensure he’s making the deal(s) he thinks best for the team.
In the interim, kicking this can down, maybe even just one day, has the effect of replacing Holloway in the lineup with Yamamoto, that is all and, yes, that makes the team better.
Deharnais didn’t skate today, still sick, so unlikely to play tomorrow in any event.
Both Deharnais and Holloway can be back on the roster on Saturday if Woodcroft and Holland so choose.
Refresh my memory wasn’t Sekera bought out with the sole purpose of signing B.C boy Brett Connolly to a nice contract but Brett passed on Leon and Connor and left Holland at the altar for Sunny Florida instead.
Although its neither here nor there (given how Sekera was brought up in your post and the response I made to your “point”) but Sekera was bought out to create cap space for the free agency procurement period – not with the intent of any specific use for the specific cap dollars.
Sekera was a player with a $5.5MM cap hit, who was full value for that cap hit (and likely for the term of his contract) and then because a $1MM player in an instant. It was a necessary move.
The Oilers currently have 12F/7D/2G for a 21 player roster.
This would be reducing the roster to the bare minimum to ice a full lineup with zero room to adjust. If a player gets sick or is out for a game (or 3 games or 7 games), there is no cap room to call anyone up and they are forced to play short.
Getting that Swedish defenceman has taken over my entire Oilers hockey interest…
Seeing only a few entries I can assume there has been no trade yet, so will let myself out.
Good Day to everyone.
If you think getting Karlsson is a huge deal press: Thumbs Up.
If you think getting Karlsson is not a huge deal press: Thumbs Down.
Last edited 1 year ago by hunter1909
dunterpunter
February 16, 2023 1:37 pm
Ok just having fun, but damn, Campbell is going to get fed to Oilers local media pretty quick here. I’m surprised it’s taking so long. Koski was like a steak at Jurassic park.
Nothing wrong with Campbell or his contract, i honestly believe he just needs time to adjust.
Skinner is having himself a good year, you just need one of those goalies to spell the other off from time to time.
dustrock
February 16, 2023 1:30 pm
Woodcroft confirmed Yamo in tomorrow, something has to give
Munny 2.0
February 16, 2023 1:13 pm
Brad Holland: “We are in the window… but don’t confuse important moves with big moves.”
“Most big trades happen in the summer where there’s a wider market. And big trades right now can hurt your team more than help it because you can trade the wrong person, destroy chemistry. You can create problems for yourself.”
One thing became clear for me and that is that the top line should be the Nuge , the McDavid & the Hyman. They could certainly use a RW not named Jesse or Kailer to play on the second line with Kane & Leon. Not necessarily Patrick Kane, I’m thinking more on the lines of a guy like Sam Lafferty, who is an RHC/RW, not overly costly, that could probably help out Leon with some draws. Just a thought anyway. I don’t believe they really need to go out and break the bank to be successful. Seven defensemen is the answer, !!/7 all the way baby. Hope Vinny is back soon, they sure needed him last night.
Last edited 1 year ago by cowboy bill
OriginalPouzar
February 16, 2023 12:50 pm
“Feeling good, trending in the right direction. We’lll see in the morning” – Yamo
Spec presses him on if its a cap thing (without saying it) and if its frustrating “definitely frustrating but I know where are team is at. Going day by day and we’ll see where we are in the morning”. Definitltey frustrating sitting out but eventually I’ll get in.
Yamo agrees with DNB when asked if the last few days off (additional days) have helped.
“Its been lingering for a while but I think its time to move past this”
It seems like he’s ready and been ready but keeps saying “we’ll see how it feels in the morning” or words to that effect.
The Dread GM Holland: “Good work today Yamo. Sleep well. I’ll probably keep you on LTIR in the morning.”
OriginalPouzar
February 16, 2023 12:42 pm
So, no waivers and no Jesse on ice today. So, options:
1) Yamamoto is not activated for tomorrow (either not fully ready or the Oilers continue to “stretch the rules” that require activation. They could really use the player so I hope its not the latter.
2) An actual trade – could take many forms.
3) A new LTIR placement – did Jesse hurt himself last night (i.e not on ice today….)?
4) Oilers send down two waiver exempt players and run a 20-player roster tomorrow night with Yamo (players would be Holloway and Deharnais) – seems unlikely.
Durag
February 16, 2023 12:21 pm
Friedman says no waivers today. Are the loud noises imminent? I can’t imagine this Yamamoto situation is going to carry on any longer.
Munny 2.0
February 16, 2023 12:13 pm
Kane, Vinnie VD Vici, and… Pujo were the three guys who did not skate today.
Bob didn’t know if JP was held out of practice or if he’s suffering from some bang and needed a maintenance day.
Curious, though.
DBO
February 16, 2023 12:01 pm
Would love Karlsson. But wonder if Holland goes off the board for a forward two way vet.
Would anyone do
Yamamoto and a 2nd and B prospect
For
O’Reilly from St. Louis 50% retained.
Becomes our 3C. Moves McLeod to 4C. Allows one of Draisatl or Nuge to play wing.
McDavid
Nuge/Draisatl
O’Reilly
McLeod
That is a championship Calibre centre depth. And our top 6 wingers become
Kane, Hyman, Draisatl/Nuge and possible another piece added or one of Puljujarvi, Foegele, Holloway, Kostin, Janmark or even McLeod. That is a really top 9 and god top 11 depth.
Love O’Reilly as a player. His archetype is the ultimate playoff player and 200-foot center.
But Ryan O’Reilly is not at full health and has seen his on-ice numbers plummet this year. He simply can’t play hockey at the level he used to. Minus -25.
His body breaking down a year later would’ve cost an NHL team a lot of money, a la Brent Seabrook.
Someone from St. Louis pointed out to me that ROR was bad in his first 10 games and fine after that. I quick glance at the numbers seems to bear this out… he’s just below 50% on-ice metrics (except goal share) despite getting buried in defensive zone starts. If (when?) healthy I think he’d be top of the list.
dustrock
February 16, 2023 11:18 am
If I understand this correctly, Seravelli says Oilers offer:
Barrie, Puljujarvi, Neimo (I’m guessing), 2024 1st and a 2023 2nd for Karlsson @ $7/7.5M
Getting out from under $7.5-7 million is pretty big upside. I’m sure a couple of lottery tickets at the draft could convince someone to eat $1 million per year of that deal.
Gives Grier the cap space to re-sign Meier if he wants to try that.
If they are trading Karlsson, it is always going to be a horrible deal for SJS. Look at the Burns trade. Cost CAR nothing. And Karlsson was untradeable a few months ago. I’m not sure the price will even be as high as Dustrock is saying, although I find that to be reasonable. I’d personally would want to switch the years on those picks, and I’d guess Kesselring is more attractive to them.
They owe the man $39 Million AFTER this season. The San Jose Sharks stand no chance of being a competitive team over the next four years.
When Mike Grier took the job this past summer, one of his major problems concerned “how to get out from the Burns, Karlsson, and Vlasic contracts to the greatest extent possible”.
Saving ~$23M is a big win for San Jose. They can push to see if another option comes available this summer, but they will have to retain on ANY Karlsson deal.
For the Sharks this is their bird-in-the-hand, but if I’m Grier I’m asking for two firsts.
The savings for them are no doubt huge. I agree Grier will likely ask for two firsts, but I wonder about the players.
Getting Barrie for 1+ year helps tide things over for them, but couldn’t they get someone this summer for much cheaper than $4.5 MM to do the same thing next year? JP could be gone this summer and Niemo may top out as a 6/7 D. Would SJ badly want any of these players?
I’d guess Grier would ask for a better current roster player (Holloway perhaps) and a better prospect/s than Niemo.
Do you know where this is from? Link would be cool as I haven’t seen it anywhere.
Munny 2.0
February 16, 2023 11:08 am
Gregor tweeted yesterday that the Oilers have pitched an offer to the Sharks as part of their ongoing conversations on one Erik Karlsson.
Sierra
February 16, 2023 10:55 am
You can’t call it a disaster, because Detroit is a good team and the Oilers played well. Jack Campbell played well enough in the third period, making one massive save off Tyler Bertuzzi, but that’s a game Edmonton should have won. In an 82-game season, you’ll get a few of these and Campbell is 17-8-2 in 27 decisions.
To the first bolded, I don’t agreed that Detroit is a good team. They are an ok team. To the second bolded, we sure say this a lot about the Oilers.
2 Wins, 2 SO losses and 1 RT loss since ASG break, against the 21st, 23rd, 24th and 26th team in the league. At least they are getting points in their losses, but this stretch of games is disappointing.
Munny 2.0
February 16, 2023 10:47 am
Olli Maatta signed to a two year deal at $3M AAV this morning. That’s a good LD option removed from the deadline madness.
TruthHurts98
February 16, 2023 10:44 am
Campbell isn’t good enough to take this team anywhere. He made one incredible save but let in multiple softies. He has lost confidence and I’m wondering if the Oilers will have to buy him out at some point. This team won’t win a round unless goaltending drastically improves.
Reja
February 16, 2023 10:36 am
Campbell had a rough game none of the Goals looked good cosmetically but where else in the league does a Goalie who wins 8 games in a row at a vital time of the season finally loses one and the fan base wants him tarred and feathered out of Town. 2 of the 4 Goals were ticked ask any Goalie all it takes is a little tick to lose the flight of the puck. Anyhow if he Wins his next 8 starts will the fan base forgive in these parts.
Campbell is sporting a 17-8-2 record. Jack is the first guy to say he needs to be not a little but a lot better. New team, playing behind a different D as well new equipment all contribute to his less than stellar start to his 5 year journey. If Campbell can continue to fight through his yips and peak come Playoff time that’s all that matters in the big picture.
Sorry to say I disagree – the W/L is a result of run support not Soup’s play. I know very little about hockey but I have always enjoyed watching the technique and movement of goalies – my favourite has always been early Cam Talbot, whose economy of movement was a joy to watch, and I always had time for Mike Smith just for his battle level. Soup has been a massive disappointment so far, and looks much more like a rookie than Stuart Skinner. Ok, he made a spectacular save last night with a Hail Mary dive but the two goals that crept in at unsealed posts were just shocking.
Winning with below average goaltending is like winning at bobsled but unnecessarily starting race by running up the hill.
Its impressive but surely ill advised to not be concerned with before Olympics start and competition gets tighter.
“Don’t think you guys are likely going to make the podium like this…”
Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
BAWS
February 16, 2023 10:31 am
I just can’t get excited about Campbell. Maybe he’s a nice guy, good in the room, I dont have a clue. I’ve only been a fan of the game for 50+ years and I’m neither a coach or GM but I do know .826 isnt going to consistently win you games in most cases, neither is a few good moments in the third.
Unfortunately this was a poor signing. A good end to a season in T/O doesnt justify that contract imo.
I think Hollands otherwise done a pretty good job. Theres a damn good team here, but its not going to be able to rely on Soup with confidence and thats going to change the way the team plays.
I’m not sure how you change it at this point, but something needs to happen.
That game was winnable and it was lost by Soup. His few good saves just ensured the Bettman. Nothing more.
Campbell will find his game when it counts in the Playoffs. Look at Markstrom MVP regular season shits the bed against Edmonton in the Playoffs and now he’s a bum.
Down Goes Brown just had an article about a small tweak to retention making it easier to do some of these deals, and varying retention was a key point.
knighttown
February 16, 2023 10:11 am
It’s pretty tough to work out a trade price for someone like Erik Karlsson because finding a trade involving a true difference maker with this much term remaining on his contract, is next to impossible. But let’s give it a shot. I’m completely ignoring the Oilers cap situation for this analysis.
The first step is to sort out his value. If you believe in the Athletics GSVA catch all stat as a way to measure true value, they have EK65 ranked #3 in the entire NHL behind McDavid and Tkachuck. His GSVA is 3.8.
If you take that number to find comparable defensemen in recent seasons you’ll find an almost exact match with Roman Josi’s 3.8GSVA player card valued over 3 seasons. His market value was then estimated to be 14.8 million per season. Makar was 18.5M, McAvoy 16M and Fox 13.3M so I don’t think Karlsson is out to lunch with those comparables.
From that lens, not only is Karlsson at 11.5M not overpaid, he’s considerably underpaid.
Next if you move to Woodguy’s analysis this week you’ll note that this isn’t a one season blip for Karlsson. Yes this is truly astronomical but he’s been outstanding in goal % rates in four of the last five seasons. You will of course note that Dom’s work includes aging curves and that the others on this list, with one notable exception, are much younger. Which brings us back to Roman Josi, also 32 years of age, and one who’s aging curve is gentle enogh that Dom has his 6 year 9.1M contract as the 6th best in the entire NHL in part because it DOES run so long, accumulating value. He’s expected to provide 5.8M in value this year declining slightly but averaging 4.4M per year x the 6 years with the least valuable being the last two years. So let’s average it out to about 4.8 million surplus for the years that coincide with Karlsson’s contract. So 4.8 + 9.1M cap hit is a market value of 13.9 million.
So if Karlsson is Josi, even at 11.5M he’s be expected to average a value of 13.9M per year, on average, for the 4 years remaining. But wait…Karlsson is on a once in a career heater! Sure…but so was Josi at the time of this writing…nearly hitting 100 points…and yet his historic value still remains this high. I think they are good comparables acknowledging injury history as a concern.
So what on earth is the value of a legit top 10 player in the NHL who also is underpaid by 2.4 million?
Now when you add back in the fact that the Sharks likely need to retain due to the NHLs inability to understand the value of the NHLs elite, you potentially are looking to acquire a 13.9M dollar defenseman locked up for 4 more years for a cap hit of around 7.5M.
Now this starts to look familiar. What does a signed x 4 years at 7.5M Leon Draisaitl cost in a bidding war?
I almost think you need to look outside of hockey to basketball and Kevin Durant bring traded for a star young player and 4 first rounders.
All of this to say that this appears to be a once in a generation opportunity to acquire one of the truly elite at a ridiculously low cap hit (due to an inexperienced GM?) and in a hard cap world you move heaven and earth to make this happen. You do not worry about removing a “good in the room” Tyson Barrie or how you replace a few forwards like Warren Foegele. This is like acquiring another Leon Draisaitl including his value contract.
Damn man, you got to look at more than just this season when taking on a contract that lasts 4 more. Karlsson has never produced anywhere near his current level before and never will again. Underpaid? Give your head a shake.
Nope read it again. I’m saying this monster year is almost identical to Josi’s monster year last year, based on GSVA. They play the same position, are the same age and share the fact that they had mostly very good/great seasons but one astronomical season.
The combination of all of that; age, position, good/very good/Norris caused Dom to assign Josi a market rate of 14.8M per season on average for his 6 year deal.
I would suggest that if Dom was to do that exercise today, EK65 would be in the range with Josi…perhaps a market of 13M. Remember, McDavid and Makar and Matthews are approaching 20M.
So if you like Doms work and his suggestion that the truly elite are all underpaid then yes, EK65 at least provides value at 11.5M and provides peak Leon value surplus if we get his cap hit to 7.5
I don’t think anyone is looking to acquire Karlsson on the premise that he’ll be producing 100 point seasons for the next 4 years, at least not reasonably.
With that said, if the Oilers have Karlsson at a cap hit of, say, $7.25MM, Karlsson doesn’t have to produce 100 or 90 or even 80 points to be value for that contract.
If he’s a 70 point (maybe at 5 on 5), right shot d-man that can eat 22-24 minutes per game and help tilt the ice – well, $7.5MM is a value deal.
His injury history is a concern but he seems 100% now including his skating. The concern is new injury and regression during his 33-35 years but lets not forget, this isn’t just an elite player, this is a generational d-man who is likely to keep a high impact in to his mid-30s (subject to future injury), right?
To me it’s 5v5 play and what they do well that you could use more of
Assuming playing healthy and well, an elite player changes a team. There are few all game state D that are dominant. The teams that are dominating season and playoffs lately have invested in their D core
D play more and if they are getting the puck up the ice well it makes every forward better
I think all of the Oiler current D group are good players in their way. It’s just a poor mix and the only top end puck mover is taking his time getting his ducks in a row. Bro is likely to get there as well. Bro may do it soon and take care of the left side. Bouch will be older which is fine, and timing wise Karlsson is perfect to let him get there and give him the template. Bro as well
Decisions will have to be made later, but that’s the ideal scenario. Too much quality, cash it in to keep the pipeline running or make a quality positional change
To me the Oilers are vulnerable 5v5 in playoffs because there is no D currently dominating their ice time. To me the D chaos and lack of a real dominant D was the difference last playoffs, understanding Nurse was hurt. But he isn’t a strong puck mover as we’ve seen and gets off his strengths easily when over taxed.
Karlsson drives play and would be a huge boost supporting the 2 and 3 C 5v5. Connor is an island and can carry Nurse until the full court press is needed
Boston has McAvoy and Lindholm getting paid. It’s made them a juggernaut. Tampa has two Cups running a high end D group. If there’s enough retention by Rosey a guy with ambitions has to go for it
Risk is there, fortune favours the bold. As our Glory Oilers were run. Holland has spoken about ‘churn’. Dealing in the now expecting to have to deal later is the thing in all pro sports isn’t it?
I sure hope Anderson doesn’t go to Calgary if he’s on his game he’s the definition of a power forward in the same sentence as Sea Bass and Keith Tkachuk.
Great article on sportsnet (https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-trade-targets-what-the-oilers-would-have-to-give-up-to-get-erik-karlsson/)
Quoted from article
1. Karlsson turns 33 on May 31, and by the time his contract expires, he’ll be 37.
2. Karlsson has a full no-move clause. If you acquire him, he might not want to be moved again down the line and you will be inheriting the full four years left on his contract.
3. Karlsson scored 63 points in 71 games his last season in Ottawa (2017-18)
4. In his first 211 games in San Jose before this season, he scored 28 goals and 115 assists for 143 points.
5. He’s on pace to score over 100 points this season.
Let all of the above sink in for 30 seconds.
I honestly believe the only team interested in Karlsson, at this trade deadline, is the Oilers. If his contract looked different (say he was expiring after this season), there would be a lineup around the block for his services.
Edm; EK at 6.9 AAV (40% retained) and SJS 5th 24
SJS: Barrie, Foegele, Bouchard, EDM 1st 23, EDM 2nd 24
He finishes the article by saying he thinks the price is too high and EDM may want to go back to looking at Jakob.
Interesting read.
So last night Vegas and Seattle ahead won games, while Calgary and Nashville behind (and also Winnipeg ahead) lost games.
Western Conference standings by games over/under .500 this morning.
Dallas +16
Vegas +15
Winnipeg +14
Seattle +13
Los Angeles +12
Edmonton +11
Colorado +10
Minnesota +7
——-
Calgary +6
Nashville +4
St. Louis +1
Vancouver -9
Arizona -9
San Jose -11
Anaheim -15
Chicago -16
Oilers today are 4 wins back of Vegas for 1st in the Pacific, and 5 wins up on Calgary who are out of a playoff spot today.
Couple of big tests coming up tonight and Sunday for your Oilers.
It’s late and no one is going to read this, but here’s my trade proposal. Keep in mind here, the Oilers are under no obligation to help a division rival successfully rebuild, so I would expect the Sharks to bend over backwards to help us solve this problem for them. In other words, the only way to see this through is to grind like a mofo.
So I would explain to Mr. Grier that I have to come out of this with some cap space or else making the deal is pointless for me, since I can’t make other moves to cover the players I’ve just traded. So if they want to make a deal, I have to come out of this with positive cap space. End of story.
Here’s the deal I’d pitch:
To San Jose:
To: Edm
This leaves the Oil with a 21 man roster and $625,167 in real pro-rated cap space to use at the deadline. No other moves were made and Yams is activated on my CapFriendly roster.
I don’t move on the retention. I insist it’s the only way I can do the deal. If they can figure out a way where I come out ahead and they retain less, they can please put it in front of me. And I’ll remind them that if they wait till the off-season, then Karlsson will use his NMC to control going to a contender, which means they will be taking salary back, and retaining regardless. If he forces it to one or two teams, it likely means eating a bad contract. I’m not trading any of that here.
Other than Barrie, everything the Sharks are taking on disappears after this season and there’s very little real money to be paid anyways, except to the actual roster players.
That’s my final offer, Rosie. Take it or leave it.
This results in $2,738,826 in deadline space*. Plenty for any RHC/W acquisition oft discussed: Acciari, Lafferty, Bjugstad. Bertuzzi with half-retained. Enough space for Kane, Toews, or ROR on double retention. Holland would have options.
Edit: *and eighty-five cents, lol
🙂
Wont work. SJ is at 49 contracts.
Tiny details like 49 contracts can be worked with a minor league swap. If this is nitpick is your only quibble, than I’d say then yes it will work.
That is certainly not going to stand in the way of Holland.
Not enough value for SJ …plus 49 contracts issue…here’s my proposal.
EDM acquires:
Karlsson @$6M
Benning @$1.2M
Svetchnikov @750k (send to minors)
SJ acquires:
Bouch, Barrie, Yamo, Bourgault, 1st…add in lavoie and mid round picks if needed
This proposal guts us at RW and we’ll have little cap to bring someone in.
Based on the leaked offer and the Brad Holland interview, I wonder if this over. We sent over a low-ball offer, no one else is interested and Grier said Karlsson’s got 4 more years, what’s the hurry.
If there is a leaked offer, please share.
I do not believe there is any leaked offer, just a game of telephone.
Huberdeau’s agent:
“Allan Walsh
@walsha
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. Also, negativity sucks the joy right out of players. cc:
@NHLFlames”
https://twitter.com/walsha/status/1626444388669980672?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Ha!
That’s too bad for them.
Only 8.5 more years!
That’s strange. That’s also the definition of practice.
Huberdeau was a year away from free agency when he got traded. He would have been able to chose his destination. Almost like his agent should have advised him to wait and see if he liked Calgary before jumping at buckets of cash. I understand that his job is to get him the most money he can, and he did, so if he doesn’t like it now, shut and up and enjoy the next 8 years in Cowtown!
No way he would have gotten the money after a year in Calgary, so you take the money when it is on the table (like Lucic and the OIlers) and then wait for the Flames to trade you.
Is this what players are looking for in an agent? They need to whine for them on Twitter and that is thought of as going to bat for them?
5 months into the contract of a lifetime. Sometimes the people in this sport can be so unprofessional – Sounds like a parent at a kids hockey game.
Vladar let’s in 5 Goals on 24 shots the Flames Fans immediately Tar and Feather him back on a flight to the Czech Republic.
It is so nice to watch a phlegm game while they are losing
So, the majority of flames games…….
I can’t remember which game it was but I turned it to the Flames game and my wife asked “Are the Oilers playing?”
To which I said, “No, I’m going to watch the Flames lose”
Within a couple of seconds the Flames got scored on. And then about a minute later the Flames get scored on again and ended up losing. It was great.
Robbie Fabbri with a PPG. 2-1 Wings
5-2 Wings with 10 minutes to go in 3rd.
Woodcroft in his availability today:
“Ken’s got a lot of balls in the air, and the one thing I do know is that Yamo is going to play in the game tomorrow”.
As far as I can tell the only detail we’ve got about a trade proposal between the Oilers and Sharks is Gregor’s mention of it yesterday (that the Oilers have made an offer for Karlsson).
The details of a specific proposal (attributed to Seravalli) were mentioned earlier in the thread, but I can’t see any mention of it anywhere. I listened to the DFO rundown (Seravalli and Gregor) from 4 hours ago and they don’t mention anything specific (Gregor spitballs what it might take, but there is no suggesting that’s what the teams have actually discussed).
Then I was thinking on Puljujarvi and that they still haven’t put him on waivers.
I figured initially they might just not want to risk losing him since he might be needed down the line (if Holland only nibbles at the deadline).
Then I thought, I guess they definitely couldn’t waive him if he’s part of a trade that’s been proposed. So that’s a possibility too.
Anyway, there doesn’t seem to be a ton on information out there (which is actually a good thing). Whatever ends up happening, pretty cool that Holland appears to be seriously looking at a number of high end pieces to try to improve the team.
HH’s post was from a fake Seravalli account. The fake Seravalli account has been suspended on Twitter.
Yes, I saw that post had been removed.
I was referring to a different post earlier (still up I believe) mentioning the details of the Oilers proposal for Karlsson (attributed to Seravalli, though no tweet quoted). I spent some time looking for it, listened to Seravalli’s most recent podcast, and didn’t find any evidence of it.
I’m just trying to find what info actually is out there and figured passing on what is/isn’t legit might be of interest to some others. I should probably just get on Twitter so I can follow all the main sources directly.
Ha ha ha. That dolt would fall for that. Measure twice cut once! Not in his life!
Ryan Dixon at SportsNet weighs in.
He apparently read your blog post yesterday about the 40% retention.
His trade terms look much better than I would have guessed.
I’ll respect LT’s quoting rules.
Yeah I saw that earlier.
40%-ish seems to be what everyone is talking about now. It makes sense since it’s kind of all the salary the Oilers can take on.
My post didn’t include Bouchard though, and I’d move a lot of other things before including Bouchard. Fair enough that Grier would be interested (maybe insistent), but this Sharks teardown is going to be a long process.
Bouch will be a year from UFA by the time Karlsson’s deal is up (Couture’s deal ends the same time, Vlasic a year earlier). So I wonder whether Grier would actually prefer quality draft picks to young NHLers. You’d think maybe it would be preferable for the next waive to be 21/22/23 in 3-4 years rather than 26 or 27. But who knows.
Edit: Also, Dixon’s trade doesn’t open enough cap space on it’s own. The Oilers would still need to trade Puljujarvi or whoever to run a 21-man roster.
Turns out that with the trade Dixon proposes, the Oilers would actually have only 88k left with a 20(!)-man roster (once Yamamoto is activated).
So they would basically 100% have to trade Puljujarvi or Yamamoto in order to even be able to carry one extra body.
Red Wings tie it up late in first, Kubalik with the snipe.
Stone Cold Killer!
Summarizing!
No soup for Petrov, so not only is he 11 points back of first ATM, he has now fallen off the podium in OHL scoring, sitting 4th.
Folks, a reminder that bogus rumours, even with links and credit, mean a one-week timeout. No exceptions.
You’re doing the Gords’ work LT. 👍😀
A rumor by nature implies its not substantiated. If it has links and credit, how does one know if it is real or if it is false? After all, its a rumor, which is 50% of trade discussions. I don’t think Im understanding.
That’s a fake account.
Are you talking about the Seravalli, or the HelmetHair?
A great 30 minutes for the PGA tour – in a showcase group with Tiger, JT and Rory, Tiger birdies 16,17 and 18 to shoot 69
Great stuff
Listening to Brad Holland on Oilers Now from earlier today.
Its a very solid listen and I will encourage all to listen.
He certainly wasn’t shy to, seemingly, try to lower some expectations speaking about important moves not necessarily being big moves – they spoke alot about big swings and misses in the past, ensuring the move helps the team in an area of need, ensuring not blocking important development and about “constant tinkering”.
Bob: So, what do you think you need?
BH: I think you always need depth, that’s an important thing. Our offence, our forwards are exceptional scorers driven by two unbelievable talents – you can always lengthen the lineup…………. (Brad rambles for three minutes)…. that’s a long winded way of answering your question. What do we need? We need to get deeper. We need to get this group every opportunity to win as soon as possible. We are going to be as specific as possible, identifying our weaknesses and adjusting to them.
I can’t remember a trade target discussed for any team that has been so outwardly unanimous amongst the analysts and pundits than ‘the Oilers should get Karlsson’ brigade.
If the Oilers talk themselves out of it… for ‘depth’ they better be right. It better not be Gaetan Haas kind of depth. Sometimes you can be the smartest man in the room and still have the wrong idea. In all my years, I’ve learned overwhelming consensus carries weight, so I am skeptical if they think they know better than everyone else.
I’ve seen this happen before.
If the Oilers talk themselves in to it, they better be right.
The effects of going it and being wrong are catastrophic.
HEY, enough of the gaetan haas slander. gater was a very good defensive forward who offered no offense. quick, smart, and decent on the pk.
Woody giving props today to Derek Ryan. He came up in Woody’s presser in part because Ryan was one of the players interviewed after practice.
Ryan has 9 goals (6th on the team), 8 at even strength and one shortie and has been scoring points at a rate of 1.57 per 60. And he didn’t any of those goals with Connor and only 1 with Leon. He also has a 55% on ice goal share.
Not bad for a guy who was considered as a tweener by some on here at the start of the season. Evidence suggests he is still a pretty solid full time NHLer. He may need to sit out the odd game down the stretch to be fresher for the playoffs though.
Not to say Ryan is irreplaceable at the deadline, if they grab another depth right shot centerman, but he has been a good depth player for the team thus far this season.
To me Ryan is one of the few players that are smarter than their physical abilities as an older fella. Also a very skilled guy
This is your daily reminder that in the previous four seasons, Karlsson scored 142 points.
In that same time, Tyson Barrie scored 187 points.
Let that sink in.
So we are going to trade Barrie AND Bouchard AND two picks AND Foegele AND hamstring our cap situation for years?
We already bought high on Nurse. We cannot afford to buy high on Karlsson. (Or sell low on Bouchard.)
Remember when we were going to acquire Norris trophy D-man PK Subban? His passes to McDavid and Hall were going to win us a Stanley Cup.
All it was going to cost us was 4OV (i.e. Pierre-Luc Dubois), Oscar Klefbom, and a struggling young prospect named Leon Draisaitl.
If that offer was on the table (some say it was), it got nixed when Jarmo passed on JP and took PLD 3OV, which meant Montreal was no longer interested in our 4OV.
As disappointing as JP has been with that 4OV pick….losing Drai would have been a lot more disappointing.
The supposed PK Subban trade was right before the 2016 draft, that was the 9th year in a row the Oilers missed the playoffs.
This is 2023 where the Oilers were just in the conference finals and the entire conference looks open. This is 100% a better situation to swing for the fences.
That would have been an awful trade but does not mean this would be one.
Remember who the Oilers GM was at 2016 draft.
That deal would still be sewering this team today……How Subban was in Norris Trophy contention, let alone won it, was mind blowing itself
You are purposely excluding this season which is by FAR the most important. Each season back has less and less statistical impression on what will happen moving forward.
This season Karlsson has 73 points (1.33ppg) to Barries 37 .
Last 2 seasons Karlsson has 108 (1.03ppg) to Barries 77
Last 3 seasons Karlsson has 130 (0.83) to Barries 125
Last 4 seasons Karlsson has 170 (.80) to Barries 164
Karlsson is a completely different offensive weapon than Barrie and if you cant see that just watching them play let alone looking at the numbers then there will never be a valid trade in your eyes. If you want to make an argument on injuries youre more than welcome to point out availability but when Karlsson is playing he is ELITE, when Barrie is playing he is good.
Karlssons 2020-2021 season was a disaster by his standards only putting up 22 points in 52 games. Unknown why but most players on the Sharks had a bad season that year (except Kane hoorah). Its easy to forget though that Burns and Karlsson were both in the same role. Offensive right handed dmen both vying for the same opportunities and this is his first season in San Jose being exclusively the guy.
Barrie has always been the main offensive weapon. He will not have a better opportunity than his career he has gone from team to team playing with elite talent Mackinnon/Matthews/Marner/McDavid/Drai. Could not ask for better playing conditions than what he has received.
I love Barrie but if hes involved in a reasonable trade for Karlsson I am driving him to the airport.
My point was that this season is a ridiculous statistical outlier for Karlsson, likely partially motivated by the prospect of getting out of Dodge.
Karlsson will still be a reasonably good player next year, but I don’t think he will be worth anywhere near his salary, nor what we would trade for him.
It reminds me of another ridiculous outlier season: William Karlsson’s first year in Vegas.
“Buy high, sell low” is not the watchword of a successful organization. It used to be the watchword of the Edmonton Oilers. I hope we’re beyond that.
In the past two season, Barrie has 28 5v5 points in his past 126 games (0.22 points/game)
In the past two season, Karlsson has 67 5v5 points in his last 105 games (0.64 points/game).
0.64 5v5 points per game, no biggie right?
Draisaitl has 0.63 5v5 points/game during that span (84 in 133).
Karlsson would be second on the Oilers only to McDavid (97/135, 0.72 5v5 points per game)
And just a reminder that Karlsson was playing on a dreadful team while Barrie was playing on one of league’s highest scoring.
The 5 on 5 is THE reason for a potential deal.
I’m not even positive that Karlsson helps the PP over Barrie but, at 5 on 5, Karlsson is basically a McDavid level impact right now.
Et tu, Ryan?
It’s mind-blowing to me how many otherwise reasonable posters are blinded by the statistical anomaly that is Karlsson’s 22-23 season.
Incredible.
And I find it really odd how you seem to be denying how good Karlsson has been basically every other year of his career.
He plays 4-6 min a night more than Barrie. His 5v5 scoring in the last 5 season is on totally another level (1.50 vs 1.16 P/60 iirc). His on ice impacts are extremely strong. If you look at Dom’s model, even with the injuries Karlsson has been around 3.0 GSVA every season, which is a $10M+ defenseman.
Most folks here are not simply focusing in Karlsson’s current season, even if you’re trying to reduce the arguments to that.
That’s completely false – not once have I denied how good Karlsson has been throughout his career. My issue is the use of THIS YEAR’S stats to ascertain value, which is what Ryan was doing. Yes he masked it a little by combining this year with last year, but the net effect is that it portrays Karlsson in the most positive possible light, when the reality is that he has NEVER posted these kind of numbers in his career before this year and the probability is that he never will again.
So all analyses of Karlsson should omit this season?
I assume you’re not suggesting that, but how should folks approach this without being accused of being “blinded by the statistical anomaly that is Karlsson’s 22-23 season”?
Is there ANY evidence at all that the Oilers are considering including Bouchard (and 2 x 1sts) in a trade like this?
I’ve mostly seen fans who don’t like Bouchard including him in the trade, and a few pundits spitballing that the Sharks would want him.
If this trade does go down, I’d be very, very surprised if the Oilers give up Bouchard and 2 firsts in it.
To be real, I don’t think there is any actual evidence of any single asset being included/offered. There has been zero actual intel on what the Oilers are willing to offer and its all been speculation, even from the likes of Seravelli and Gregor, right?
Yes, absolutely. Though we do know from Gregor that a trade offer has apparently been extended.
So according to Dom’s model, it’s likely 5 Pacific teams make the playoffs and it seems like playoff seeding may come down to a lucky goal or a muffed save.
EDM 100.9
VGK 100.5
SEA 100.5
LAK 98.6
CAL 97.9
Tonights schedule promises to tighten things up even more:
DET@ CAL
PHI @SEA
SJS@VGK
All three of the Pacific teams are favoured to win and when the nights over, all of the five contenders will have played 55 games.
It’s almost like starting the season over and perhaps deadline additions and/or injuries will play an outsized role in the final standings.
LOL “playoff seeding may come down to a lucky goal or a muffed save”–often I find your trolling tedious, but I thought this line was quite inspired. Well done!
That seems about right.
I am wondering how golden knights keep together with atone gone though. There’s not really even a winger on selling team remotely close to him in my head.
Yeah, I’m not sure they could find a replacement but if/when they place him on LTIR, they have $9.5 million in cap space for acquisitions.
They’re pretty short on trade capital but that has never stopped them before.
Interesting to hear Colton Parayko’s name whispered in trade rumours now.
Just curious what people think. I believe most of us would agree that Karlsson is on a different tier of defencemen than anyone else.
However, if the Oilers checked down, what would help the team more? A 1B LHD to help limit Nurse’s minutes (Chychrun) or a better 1RD that may actually enhance Nurse’s ability to continue to take on huge minutes against elites (Parayko).
Thoughts?
Parayko is obviously a better defenseman than Ceci.
If you look though, Parayko is playing similar minutes (QoC and zone starts) to Ceci and also losing them.
Parayko does play about 3 minutes more per game, and I think that means something, but they are being used in similar ways. And neither one is shining.
Parayko is also a shade older, signed for twice as much, and for 3 times a long.
So I guess I’d be extremely hesitant on Parayko.
I haven’t dug in to it too much but what about the fact that Parayko is the alpha on that pair and Ceci isn’t the alpha on his pair and is being pulled along by Nurse (Nurse’s numbers go up and up and up without Ceci this season)?
No offence to Nick Leddy but, like Ceci, I don’t consider him a legit tough minutes top pairing d-man.
I haven’t dug into Parayko’s partners either, but it could be a factor.
I know he’s been underwater for more than just this season though, so I don’t think it’s simply ‘Leddy’ (and I should clarify I’m talking about each of their results relative to team, so underwater relatively).
On Nurse and Ceci’s WOWY’s, I think a big part of that is that Nurse is playing easier minutes when he’s not with Ceci. Ceci is selectively removed from the pairing for the softer minutes. Ceci has certainly struggled this season as well, but I don’t think those WOWYs should be taken at face value.
Karlsson pack your bags. Woot.
DNB says it’s likely just Holloway and Desharnais going down so save the woots lol
I didn’t say he was coming here, all I said was pack your bags. You guys are insane honestly lol
You can’t drop a woot over something that hasn’t happened! You can’t do that! Do you know how many times i refereshed my Karlsson google search because of your woot? You are killin me here!
I’ll drop woots at anytime anywhere whenever I damn well please. What? Woot woot woot.
Pack your bags Erik.
A timeout infraction IMO.
Soft.
Weak.
Kevin Woodley was on the PDOcast yesterday and mentioned that from the clear sight analytics data that when one goalie lets in a low danger scoring chance the team loses 87% of the time. Case in point Campbell last night.
Did they mention how often teams lose when a medium or high danger chance goes in?
Sorry it was just in the flow of conversation about goaltending in general.
Oilers should of mustered alil more finish the 1st few periods, maybe get a shot on goal before they give the road team a lead. Lots of variables.
Woot.
We should’ve lost way more last season?
Anyone who has played sports knows how deflating that is
It’s a road back mentally and disrupts a portion of the game. Or all of it
With the trade, deadline and the tight race, there hasn’t been as much time to sit back and marvel a little bit about what McDavid continues to do. The rest of the stars were gushing about him at the all star game.
Back on October 12, McDavid blew past 700 points in 488 games, which was 6th fastest all time (Kurri was 5th at 483). Only 4 months and 54 games later, McDavid is on the verge of passing 800 points. Kurri is currently still 5th fastest to 800, but it took him 558 games to get there. McDavid is at 796 points in 542 games, so its a pretty safe bet he will go under that number by several games. It would be great if he bagged at least 4 against the Rangers to get there and help with a victory.
Good to hear Woody be straight up for a chance and say straight up that Yamamoto is playing tomorrow.
It is not an easy job to be a professional sports league GM. No one is willing to help you out. They rather throw an anchor at you than a life jacket. Everyone is probably waiting to get JP more nothing or to give them something to take him of our hands
Well no kidding lol
Deadline given. Trade fell through. Push narrative of summer being a better time. Yamo’s agent pressuring. Scrambling to implement plan B&C.
Sounds like you’re having a busy day!
Am I allowed to say the deal hasn’t fallen through anything but dotting i’s and crossing t’s.
Woot.
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1626321995934896128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1626321995934896128%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
Woodcroft asked about maintenance days for those people not at practice (i.e. Jesse) and sure looked like he was trying to prevent a shit-eating grin at 19 seconds.
That really was quite a grin.
Wow. Impossible to say what was on his mind at that moment, but there was definitely an inner “tee her hee” quickly followed by a serious “yes, go on”.
Woot.
Oilers can demote Holloway and Desharnais to be cap compliant with Yamo coming back.
Horn Tooting Time
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
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54m
Credit where credit is due. OP has been all over this scenario.
Woodcroft says Yamamoto is playing tomorrow. If Puljujarvi or Foegele (or someone else of similar cap hit) aren’t traded, two of waivers-exempt Broberg, Desharnais & Holloway could be demoted later today or tomorrow
Quote Tweet
OriginalPouzar
@coopsie39
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1h
Replying to @DNBsports
Or they send down TWO non-waiver players (Holloway and Deharnais) and run with a 20-player roster for a game…..not happening.
I really don’t see the problem with this…
12F + 6D + 2G = 20 players
alternately: 11F + 7D + 2G = 20
what am I missing?
If someone gets injured in or after the Rangers game and can’t play Sunday, the Oilers would have to play Colorado with only 17 skater and 2 goalies. Only after that game, they can then use an emergency call up for the following one.
Exactly this is no way to run a team we’ve all seen a game with 2 players from the same team injuried, then what? Holland needs to trade one or two of the 3M Squad that’s draining our Cap.
Well, then the Oilers can back-fill the lineup with emergency call-ups (after playing one game short) but, of course, that is FAR from ideal.
Yes, Holland is actively working on roster changes and that will include trades of cap out – we know this. We also know he’s being diligent, he’s being patient and is looking for specific types of player and trying to get them at certain costs.
Screaming “Trade Jesse or Trade Yamo” is fine but I’m glad the GM is being diligent and patient and has no panic in him.
He’s had all year to make a trade is he speaking with his Brethren by Pony Express. It took Holland less than a Fortnight to buyout Sekera who’s Cap hit would allow us to have a full Squad.
He bought out Sekera on the deadline to buy players out for the year.
Again, the potential trade of Jesse (which, from accounts is out there), is part of the overall cap structuring and team upgrade puzzle between now and March 3.
I have little doubt he could pull the trigger on a Jesse trade with a simple phone call but he’s using the time that he has to ensure he’s making the deal(s) he thinks best for the team.
In the interim, kicking this can down, maybe even just one day, has the effect of replacing Holloway in the lineup with Yamamoto, that is all and, yes, that makes the team better.
Deharnais didn’t skate today, still sick, so unlikely to play tomorrow in any event.
Both Deharnais and Holloway can be back on the roster on Saturday if Woodcroft and Holland so choose.
Refresh my memory wasn’t Sekera bought out with the sole purpose of signing B.C boy Brett Connolly to a nice contract but Brett passed on Leon and Connor and left Holland at the altar for Sunny Florida instead.
Although its neither here nor there (given how Sekera was brought up in your post and the response I made to your “point”) but Sekera was bought out to create cap space for the free agency procurement period – not with the intent of any specific use for the specific cap dollars.
Sekera was a player with a $5.5MM cap hit, who was full value for that cap hit (and likely for the term of his contract) and then because a $1MM player in an instant. It was a necessary move.
The Oilers currently have 12F/7D/2G for a 21 player roster.
This would be reducing the roster to the bare minimum to ice a full lineup with zero room to adjust. If a player gets sick or is out for a game (or 3 games or 7 games), there is no cap room to call anyone up and they are forced to play short.
You should start your own Oilers blog.
Sorry that you are in feelings….
Getting that Swedish defenceman has taken over my entire Oilers hockey interest…
Seeing only a few entries I can assume there has been no trade yet, so will let myself out.
Good Day to everyone.
If you think getting Karlsson is a huge deal press: Thumbs Up.
If you think getting Karlsson is not a huge deal press: Thumbs Down.
Ok just having fun, but damn, Campbell is going to get fed to Oilers local media pretty quick here. I’m surprised it’s taking so long. Koski was like a steak at Jurassic park.
S’pose he could also go back to being solid like he has been since Christmas, and like he was before this year.
He’s still 9-1-1 with a .907 SV% in 2023 after all (the one regulation loss in relief).
And what’s the 3rd panel about anyway? The Oilers have never signed a goalie for $3M x 3 have they?
LOL. you are right. 4.5mil @ 3yrs. Brutal.
Yeah that Koskinen deal was brutal. Assumed Smith at $2.2M x 2 would be the last starter signed, but details right?
Nothing wrong with Campbell or his contract, i honestly believe he just needs time to adjust.
Skinner is having himself a good year, you just need one of those goalies to spell the other off from time to time.
Woodcroft confirmed Yamo in tomorrow, something has to give
Brad Holland: “We are in the window… but don’t confuse important moves with big moves.”
“Most big trades happen in the summer where there’s a wider market. And big trades right now can hurt your team more than help it because you can trade the wrong person, destroy chemistry. You can create problems for yourself.”
He kind of avoided Bob’s question on “what does the team need?”
Tl/dr version of his response was “depth and the needs we identify.”
Brad, did 97 & 29 identify any particular needs?
Oiler’s deserved better, not enough credit is given to Husso. Those weren’t the same saves Campbell had to make.
Rishaug saying no Jesse deal imminent.
https://twitter.com/tsnryanrishaug/status/1626308310252281856?s=61&t=F95R2Fx2Vok9-2l3eN4ZWA
One thing became clear for me and that is that the top line should be the Nuge , the McDavid & the Hyman. They could certainly use a RW not named Jesse or Kailer to play on the second line with Kane & Leon. Not necessarily Patrick Kane, I’m thinking more on the lines of a guy like Sam Lafferty, who is an RHC/RW, not overly costly, that could probably help out Leon with some draws. Just a thought anyway. I don’t believe they really need to go out and break the bank to be successful. Seven defensemen is the answer, !!/7 all the way baby. Hope Vinny is back soon, they sure needed him last night.
“Feeling good, trending in the right direction. We’lll see in the morning” – Yamo
Spec presses him on if its a cap thing (without saying it) and if its frustrating “definitely frustrating but I know where are team is at. Going day by day and we’ll see where we are in the morning”. Definitltey frustrating sitting out but eventually I’ll get in.
Yamo agrees with DNB when asked if the last few days off (additional days) have helped.
“Its been lingering for a while but I think its time to move past this”
It seems like he’s ready and been ready but keeps saying “we’ll see how it feels in the morning” or words to that effect.
The Dread GM Holland: “Good work today Yamo. Sleep well. I’ll probably keep you on LTIR in the morning.”
So, no waivers and no Jesse on ice today. So, options:
1) Yamamoto is not activated for tomorrow (either not fully ready or the Oilers continue to “stretch the rules” that require activation. They could really use the player so I hope its not the latter.
2) An actual trade – could take many forms.
3) A new LTIR placement – did Jesse hurt himself last night (i.e not on ice today….)?
4) Oilers send down two waiver exempt players and run a 20-player roster tomorrow night with Yamo (players would be Holloway and Deharnais) – seems unlikely.
Friedman says no waivers today. Are the loud noises imminent? I can’t imagine this Yamamoto situation is going to carry on any longer.
Kane, Vinnie VD Vici, and… Pujo were the three guys who did not skate today.
If we didn’t already know that Vincent was sick you could have scared more than a few of us there. Get well soon big guy!
DNB says no waivers for the Oilers today btw.
Bob didn’t know if JP was held out of practice or if he’s suffering from some bang and needed a maintenance day.
Curious, though.
Would love Karlsson. But wonder if Holland goes off the board for a forward two way vet.
Would anyone do
Yamamoto and a 2nd and B prospect
For
O’Reilly from St. Louis 50% retained.
Becomes our 3C. Moves McLeod to 4C. Allows one of Draisatl or Nuge to play wing.
McDavid
Nuge/Draisatl
O’Reilly
McLeod
That is a championship Calibre centre depth. And our top 6 wingers become
Kane, Hyman, Draisatl/Nuge and possible another piece added or one of Puljujarvi, Foegele, Holloway, Kostin, Janmark or even McLeod. That is a really top 9 and god top 11 depth.
Love O’Reilly as a player. His archetype is the ultimate playoff player and 200-foot center.
But Ryan O’Reilly is not at full health and has seen his on-ice numbers plummet this year. He simply can’t play hockey at the level he used to. Minus -25.
His body breaking down a year later would’ve cost an NHL team a lot of money, a la Brent Seabrook.
Someone from St. Louis pointed out to me that ROR was bad in his first 10 games and fine after that. I quick glance at the numbers seems to bear this out… he’s just below 50% on-ice metrics (except goal share) despite getting buried in defensive zone starts. If (when?) healthy I think he’d be top of the list.
If I understand this correctly, Seravelli says Oilers offer:
Barrie, Puljujarvi, Neimo (I’m guessing), 2024 1st and a 2023 2nd for Karlsson @ $7/7.5M
Yes please.
Guessing the Oil wouldn’t leak this, wonder why the Sharks would, looking for more bidders?
That’s a steal for that much retention.
I’ll pour one out for Tyson if he leaves.
But if this works its one helluva deal…
Terrible deal for SJ. I’d imagine it would have to be sweetened considerably.
Dunno how terrible it its.
Getting out from under $7.5-7 million is pretty big upside. I’m sure a couple of lottery tickets at the draft could convince someone to eat $1 million per year of that deal.
Gives Grier the cap space to re-sign Meier if he wants to try that.
If they are trading Karlsson, it is always going to be a horrible deal for SJS. Look at the Burns trade. Cost CAR nothing. And Karlsson was untradeable a few months ago. I’m not sure the price will even be as high as Dustrock is saying, although I find that to be reasonable. I’d personally would want to switch the years on those picks, and I’d guess Kesselring is more attractive to them.
They owe the man $39 Million AFTER this season. The San Jose Sharks stand no chance of being a competitive team over the next four years.
When Mike Grier took the job this past summer, one of his major problems concerned “how to get out from the Burns, Karlsson, and Vlasic contracts to the greatest extent possible”.
Saving ~$23M is a big win for San Jose. They can push to see if another option comes available this summer, but they will have to retain on ANY Karlsson deal.
For the Sharks this is their bird-in-the-hand, but if I’m Grier I’m asking for two firsts.
The savings for them are no doubt huge. I agree Grier will likely ask for two firsts, but I wonder about the players.
Getting Barrie for 1+ year helps tide things over for them, but couldn’t they get someone this summer for much cheaper than $4.5 MM to do the same thing next year? JP could be gone this summer and Niemo may top out as a 6/7 D. Would SJ badly want any of these players?
I’d guess Grier would ask for a better current roster player (Holloway perhaps) and a better prospect/s than Niemo.
Barrie would be a draft pick to Grier.
Excellent. I think the actual dollars paid are often overlooked, these are businesses so it matters, for most teams
We have are lucky the Oilers are a high rev team
Even if San Jose accepts this offer, it still doesn’t create enough space to activate Yamamoto. Something else has to give.
Do you know where this is from? Link would be cool as I haven’t seen it anywhere.
Gregor tweeted yesterday that the Oilers have pitched an offer to the Sharks as part of their ongoing conversations on one Erik Karlsson.
To the first bolded, I don’t agreed that Detroit is a good team. They are an ok team. To the second bolded, we sure say this a lot about the Oilers.
2 Wins, 2 SO losses and 1 RT loss since ASG break, against the 21st, 23rd, 24th and 26th team in the league. At least they are getting points in their losses, but this stretch of games is disappointing.
Olli Maatta signed to a two year deal at $3M AAV this morning. That’s a good LD option removed from the deadline madness.
Campbell isn’t good enough to take this team anywhere. He made one incredible save but let in multiple softies. He has lost confidence and I’m wondering if the Oilers will have to buy him out at some point. This team won’t win a round unless goaltending drastically improves.
Campbell had a rough game none of the Goals looked good cosmetically but where else in the league does a Goalie who wins 8 games in a row at a vital time of the season finally loses one and the fan base wants him tarred and feathered out of Town. 2 of the 4 Goals were ticked ask any Goalie all it takes is a little tick to lose the flight of the puck. Anyhow if he Wins his next 8 starts will the fan base forgive in these parts.
Good point, but forensic analysis might reveal some tar and feathers under your fingernails too, Reja…
I am getting Mikko Koskinen flashbacks.
It you are preaching objectivity then in 4 of those 8 wins Campbell’s SV% was .897, .893, .903 and .900.
Last night .826.
Season .888
He’s no model of consistency.
Campbell is sporting a 17-8-2 record. Jack is the first guy to say he needs to be not a little but a lot better. New team, playing behind a different D as well new equipment all contribute to his less than stellar start to his 5 year journey. If Campbell can continue to fight through his yips and peak come Playoff time that’s all that matters in the big picture.
Those numbers look fairly consistent to me.
Not really, check out his SV% in the other 4 wins.
Sorry to say I disagree – the W/L is a result of run support not Soup’s play. I know very little about hockey but I have always enjoyed watching the technique and movement of goalies – my favourite has always been early Cam Talbot, whose economy of movement was a joy to watch, and I always had time for Mike Smith just for his battle level. Soup has been a massive disappointment so far, and looks much more like a rookie than Stuart Skinner. Ok, he made a spectacular save last night with a Hail Mary dive but the two goals that crept in at unsealed posts were just shocking.
Winning with below average goaltending is like winning at bobsled but unnecessarily starting race by running up the hill.
Its impressive but surely ill advised to not be concerned with before Olympics start and competition gets tighter.
“Don’t think you guys are likely going to make the podium like this…”
I just can’t get excited about Campbell. Maybe he’s a nice guy, good in the room, I dont have a clue. I’ve only been a fan of the game for 50+ years and I’m neither a coach or GM but I do know .826 isnt going to consistently win you games in most cases, neither is a few good moments in the third.
Unfortunately this was a poor signing. A good end to a season in T/O doesnt justify that contract imo.
I think Hollands otherwise done a pretty good job. Theres a damn good team here, but its not going to be able to rely on Soup with confidence and thats going to change the way the team plays.
I’m not sure how you change it at this point, but something needs to happen.
That game was winnable and it was lost by Soup. His few good saves just ensured the Bettman. Nothing more.
Campbell had a .916SV% in 128 games over the 4 seasons before he signed in Edmonton.
Campbell will find his game when it counts in the Playoffs. Look at Markstrom MVP regular season shits the bed against Edmonton in the Playoffs and now he’s a bum.
Jesse will make in another day Al😊
I wonder if Holland is working for a trade involving Jesse, or involving someone else..
Question for the group. Does a team have to retain x amount per year? Or could a team retain 50 percent one year and then say 10 percent the next?
Nope. Same percentage throughout.
Well that’s to bad.
No. Retention applies equally to all remaining years.
Down Goes Brown just had an article about a small tweak to retention making it easier to do some of these deals, and varying retention was a key point.
It’s pretty tough to work out a trade price for someone like Erik Karlsson because finding a trade involving a true difference maker with this much term remaining on his contract, is next to impossible. But let’s give it a shot. I’m completely ignoring the Oilers cap situation for this analysis.
The first step is to sort out his value. If you believe in the Athletics GSVA catch all stat as a way to measure true value, they have EK65 ranked #3 in the entire NHL behind McDavid and Tkachuck. His GSVA is 3.8.
If you take that number to find comparable defensemen in recent seasons you’ll find an almost exact match with Roman Josi’s 3.8GSVA player card valued over 3 seasons. His market value was then estimated to be 14.8 million per season. Makar was 18.5M, McAvoy 16M and Fox 13.3M so I don’t think Karlsson is out to lunch with those comparables.
From that lens, not only is Karlsson at 11.5M not overpaid, he’s considerably underpaid.
Next if you move to Woodguy’s analysis this week you’ll note that this isn’t a one season blip for Karlsson. Yes this is truly astronomical but he’s been outstanding in goal % rates in four of the last five seasons. You will of course note that Dom’s work includes aging curves and that the others on this list, with one notable exception, are much younger. Which brings us back to Roman Josi, also 32 years of age, and one who’s aging curve is gentle enogh that Dom has his 6 year 9.1M contract as the 6th best in the entire NHL in part because it DOES run so long, accumulating value. He’s expected to provide 5.8M in value this year declining slightly but averaging 4.4M per year x the 6 years with the least valuable being the last two years. So let’s average it out to about 4.8 million surplus for the years that coincide with Karlsson’s contract. So 4.8 + 9.1M cap hit is a market value of 13.9 million.
So if Karlsson is Josi, even at 11.5M he’s be expected to average a value of 13.9M per year, on average, for the 4 years remaining. But wait…Karlsson is on a once in a career heater! Sure…but so was Josi at the time of this writing…nearly hitting 100 points…and yet his historic value still remains this high. I think they are good comparables acknowledging injury history as a concern.
So what on earth is the value of a legit top 10 player in the NHL who also is underpaid by 2.4 million?
Now when you add back in the fact that the Sharks likely need to retain due to the NHLs inability to understand the value of the NHLs elite, you potentially are looking to acquire a 13.9M dollar defenseman locked up for 4 more years for a cap hit of around 7.5M.
Now this starts to look familiar. What does a signed x 4 years at 7.5M Leon Draisaitl cost in a bidding war?
I almost think you need to look outside of hockey to basketball and Kevin Durant bring traded for a star young player and 4 first rounders.
All of this to say that this appears to be a once in a generation opportunity to acquire one of the truly elite at a ridiculously low cap hit (due to an inexperienced GM?) and in a hard cap world you move heaven and earth to make this happen. You do not worry about removing a “good in the room” Tyson Barrie or how you replace a few forwards like Warren Foegele. This is like acquiring another Leon Draisaitl including his value contract.
Damn man, you got to look at more than just this season when taking on a contract that lasts 4 more. Karlsson has never produced anywhere near his current level before and never will again. Underpaid? Give your head a shake.
If you look at more than 1 year on the Sharks, 4 of his 5 San Jose years he’s been very good.
https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1625949146090999809?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
This is an exceptional year. Like Josi had his exceptional year and otherwise has just been really awesome every other season.
Woodguy says his 1 bad year he was paired with a rookie D who has played 5 AHL games since.
KT was using this years stats to say EK was underpaid. That’s not the same thing at all.
Nope read it again. I’m saying this monster year is almost identical to Josi’s monster year last year, based on GSVA. They play the same position, are the same age and share the fact that they had mostly very good/great seasons but one astronomical season.
The combination of all of that; age, position, good/very good/Norris caused Dom to assign Josi a market rate of 14.8M per season on average for his 6 year deal.
I would suggest that if Dom was to do that exercise today, EK65 would be in the range with Josi…perhaps a market of 13M. Remember, McDavid and Makar and Matthews are approaching 20M.
So if you like Doms work and his suggestion that the truly elite are all underpaid then yes, EK65 at least provides value at 11.5M and provides peak Leon value surplus if we get his cap hit to 7.5
I don’t think anyone is looking to acquire Karlsson on the premise that he’ll be producing 100 point seasons for the next 4 years, at least not reasonably.
With that said, if the Oilers have Karlsson at a cap hit of, say, $7.25MM, Karlsson doesn’t have to produce 100 or 90 or even 80 points to be value for that contract.
If he’s a 70 point (maybe at 5 on 5), right shot d-man that can eat 22-24 minutes per game and help tilt the ice – well, $7.5MM is a value deal.
His injury history is a concern but he seems 100% now including his skating. The concern is new injury and regression during his 33-35 years but lets not forget, this isn’t just an elite player, this is a generational d-man who is likely to keep a high impact in to his mid-30s (subject to future injury), right?
When you add up.dom’s market value of the oilers:
You end up wayyy over cap….this doesn’t exactly look like a team that far over max cap in market value.
I dont think values are quite right.
That’s been raised before, but if you look at crappy teams (say Anaheim) they are all overpaid (model says everyone is crap).
I think it all evens out, though you’re right the numbers look impossible if you just just go by good teams.
I don’t like looking at players only by points
To me it’s 5v5 play and what they do well that you could use more of
Assuming playing healthy and well, an elite player changes a team. There are few all game state D that are dominant. The teams that are dominating season and playoffs lately have invested in their D core
D play more and if they are getting the puck up the ice well it makes every forward better
I think all of the Oiler current D group are good players in their way. It’s just a poor mix and the only top end puck mover is taking his time getting his ducks in a row. Bro is likely to get there as well. Bro may do it soon and take care of the left side. Bouch will be older which is fine, and timing wise Karlsson is perfect to let him get there and give him the template. Bro as well
Decisions will have to be made later, but that’s the ideal scenario. Too much quality, cash it in to keep the pipeline running or make a quality positional change
To me the Oilers are vulnerable 5v5 in playoffs because there is no D currently dominating their ice time. To me the D chaos and lack of a real dominant D was the difference last playoffs, understanding Nurse was hurt. But he isn’t a strong puck mover as we’ve seen and gets off his strengths easily when over taxed.
Karlsson drives play and would be a huge boost supporting the 2 and 3 C 5v5. Connor is an island and can carry Nurse until the full court press is needed
Boston has McAvoy and Lindholm getting paid. It’s made them a juggernaut. Tampa has two Cups running a high end D group. If there’s enough retention by Rosey a guy with ambitions has to go for it
Risk is there, fortune favours the bold. As our Glory Oilers were run. Holland has spoken about ‘churn’. Dealing in the now expecting to have to deal later is the thing in all pro sports isn’t it?