All the Lazy Boyfriends

by Lowetide
Stuart Skinner photo by Mark Williams

I got some dm’s and tweets and a couple of emails last night asking if I was brewing up another rant if the Oilers couldn’t wake up against the Philadelphia Flyers. Honestly? No. Not close. The Flyers have a quality goalie, work hard and play a tough system. Add to it some offensive talent (Owen Tippett scored, and was thwarted by Stuart Skinner in a key moment in the game later) and I’m impressed with the out-of-towners.

No rant needed, as it turned out. Oilers best players were their best players and it’s on to Pittsburgh with a very tight race for the top of the Pacific underway. Vegas, LAK, Seattle, Edmonton and Calgary if they can put together a winning streak. Hold on to your ass!

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: DET, PHI, OTT, MTL (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
  • At home to: DET, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-2)
  • On the road to: COL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: PIT, CBJ (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: BOS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • February expected result: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
  • February actual result: 3-1-4, 10 points in eight games
  • January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 31-19-8, 70 points in 58 games

The Oilers are now on pace to finish with 99 points, a sure playoff total. If Edmonton brings in just 24 points in the final 24 games, it will put them at 94 points, and that could be enough. A strong run through this week could see this team pushing for the top of the division. It is there for the taking, and after a 36-year drought in division titles, would represent a real accomplishment for this franchise.

SUMMARY

  • Stuart Skinner had a good-to-great night with that late save by Tippett a vital point in the game. At five-on-five, his .930 SP is No. 5 in the NHL among goalies with 1,000 or more minutes. He should have stopped the Noah Cates chance, but what I like about him is that he recovered quickly. It’s been a long time since the Oilers had a rookie goalie with calm feet.
  • Darnell Nurse had an assist, TK, five hits, blocked a couple of shots. I thought he played well and as you can see he played 2+ minutes with four different defensive partners. Nurse is at his best when closing gaps and reacting quickly to plays in front of him. There was plenty of it last night. He is 54-49 for the year at five-on-five goals, 12-3 goals in all other even-strength situations. That’s a 56 percent goal share.
  • Cody Ceci made a poor pass to Philip Broberg and the mistake quickly resulted in a GA (Tippett tip). 1-1 goals five-on-five, 6-1 HDSC. The Oilers got a good game from him, too bad about the errant pass. Oilers need Nurse-Ceci to deliver down the stretch, or need a trade.
  • Tyson Barrie scored a key goal, three shots, TK, drew a penalty, went 0-1 goals at five-on-five (Cates goal) and I hesitate to give anyone save Skinner a down arrow because it was a weak goal. Kulak-Barrie is 19-18 for the season, an acceptable number for the second pairing.
  • Brett Kulak had another solid game, three shots, one HDSC, TK, GV, took a penalty (I thought it might be four minutes), but the puck stayed away from danger. 1-0 goals five-on-five, he’s 8-5 goals in February in the discipline. He had a breakaway and looked like he’d been there. I love his speed, the recovery ability for Kulak is something else.
  • Philip Broberg was mostly quiet to my eye in the game, he received a minus one on the errant Ceci pass.
  • Evan Bouchard had three shots, bobbled a great chance, took a penalty, drew a penalty, TK, GV, I thought he looked good with Nurse and hope we see it again.
  • Vincent Desharnais had one GV, four hits and blocked a shot. He iced the puck first chance he got, that seems to be a set play D-to-F but my God it’s inefficient. What makes him effective is the wingspan and his complete devotion to ending any progress that comes his way. Desharnais’ simple defensive game is effective.
  • Connor McDavid did that thing that he does. He set his jaw, used his Superman heat vision, and pierced the heart of the Flyers defensive wall again and again. He also made a new move, an innovative play anyone who has backed through a swinging door with a load of dishes (like a waiter or waitress) would recognize. He was there, did a Jim Rockford-Firebird reverse and change direction move. It was breathtaking. He’s impossible.
  • McDavid went 2-1-3 on the night, nine shots, four HDSC, 5 GV (Flyers are good at suppression), 2T and 13-3 in the dot. He’s a gift for Oilers fans, no one in the league has this guy and you’re getting peak McDavid. Enjoy his wonderful ability, it’s not going to pass this way again.
  • Leon Draisaitl was effective on a couple of early back checks and was marking Noah Cates (trail position) when the puck went in. I don’t think Leon gets an error there, the goal was soft and you need the goalie to make that stop. He won the faceoff and picked the assist on the Barrie goal, scored a PP goal on a great shot in the third and had an assist on the McDavid goal to take the lead. 1-2-3, one shot, one HDSC, 2GV, 2TK, 10-4 on the dot. Strong game from the big man.
  • Zach Hyman had an unusually quiet night. One shot, two HDSC, three GV, he bulled his way through several Philly walls but on this night did not cash.
  • Devin Shore had another fine game, that trip to the AHL seems to have energized him. Not that he was playing poorly before, because he wasn’t playing at all. Drew a penalty, had a TK and a GV, his line won the shot share 4-3 and at times seemed like the only unit with any idea about how to break down the Philly wall. Drew a penalty, four minutes to daylight for the Oilers.
  • Derek Ryan was 5-3 shots and 2-2 HDSC during his five-on-five time, no goals against. That’s exactly what a team wants from the fourth line. It the trio scores, even better.
  • Jesse Puljuarvi had one shot on goal, two HDSC and was effective in this game. Used his body to clear space and create opportunity. Played 10:46 at five-on-five, those are third-line minutes.
  • Warren Foegele had two shots, one HDSC and hit a couple of guys. His line was 3-3 shots but 2-1 HDSC on a night when true chances seemed rare.
  • Ryan McLeod took a penalty that shouldn’t have been (buddy fell, come on ref!) and didn’t impact the game much offensively. He has been quality for some time, this night was a little quiet.
  • Mattias Janmark spent an extended period effectively penalty killing all by his lonesome. I appreciate his game. Had one shot, one HDSC, two GV and a TK. His line lost the five-on-five shot share 3-4 but won the HDSC 4-1.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had an assist, a shot, two HDSC, and a takeaway. He hit 70 points for the first time in his career, and is two points from 600. I’m glad he didn’t get there on the night McDavid hit 800 and Draisaitl 700, Nuge should get his own night for that kind of milestone. Per 82GP in his fine career, Nuge is 24-39-63. That’s a helluva hockey player.
  • Kailer Yamamoto had one shot, one HDSC. I wonder if his performance impacts the deadline? If Holland doesn’t trust him to stay in the lineup and is worried about injury, we could see a move there. I notice the Oilers are scouting the Montreal Canadiens and wonder about Josh Anderson. He’s been mentioned often.

RAPHAEL LAVOIE

Lavoie is on fire now, he owns terrific boxcars (17-12-29 in 39 games) and has reached the 30-point NHLE (equivalency) plateau. Here are the Oilers forward prospects who reached that total, or near, while in the NHL. Also included is the number of NHL GP, since 2010.

  • Linus Omark 2010-11: 44.0 (79 NHL games)
  • Cooper Marody 2018-19: 44.0 (7 NHL games)
  • Ryan McLeod 2020-21: 39.9 (126 NHL games)
  • Toni Rajala 2012-13: 39.0 (0 NHL games)
  • Tyler Benson 2018-19: 38.7 (38 NHL games)
  • Mark Arcobello 2010-11: 33.7 (139 NHL games)
  • Teemu Hartikainen 2012-13: 31.4 (52 NHL games)
  • Raphael Lavoie 2022-23. 29.6 (0 NHL games)
  • Jujhar Khaira 2016-17: 29.5 (314 NHL games)
  • Magnus Paajarvi 2011-12 29.3 (467 NHL games)
  • Jesse Puljujarvi 2016-17: 28.6 (314 NHL games) (age 18)
  • Kailer Yamamoto 2019-20: 27.7 (220 NHL games)
  • Dylan Holloway 2021-22: 26.6 (51 NHL games)

Not exactly a stellar list, but Lavoie has a special skill (his shot) and I do believe he has an NHL chance. Jujhar Khaira was like that, he wasn’t close to the best scorer in the AHL at the time but he had specific strengths and it allowed him an NHL career. Lavoie’s skill is more offensive, he should have an NHL career.

I also wonder if the Canadiens are interested in him as part of a package (say with Jesse Puljujarvi) for Josh Anderson.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

10-2, TSN 1260. We have a complete rundown from last night’s game including why the Oilers won and great news out on the OOT scoreboard.

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Munny 2.0

LT:

My post w.r.t Gazdic and Inside Sports had nothing to do with you. It instead was directed at members of the community who felt Stauffer somehow “embarrassed” himself last game by contradicting a former player turned pundit.

My comment about respecting you was with regards to making unfounded allegations about an NHL GM over a trade that has occurred here on your blog without knowledge of the details.

I have no idea what your beef with OP is.

Like you, and your show, I wish people would actually read my comments before then misrepresenting them.

Last edited 1 year ago by Munny 2.0
Munny 2.0

Thank you, didn’t want there to be any bad blood. Nice to hear. Have a great show today!

***********

I tried to bring myself up-to-date on your radio comment, and I am leery of chiming in, but I would like to add some context.

First, Bob is not acting as an employee of the OEG when he is on SN, and he has a responsibility to that employer, SN.

Second, Bob frequently says things on the OEG’s radio show that are not “company line” and are critical of the organization. He clearly has freedom to operate. And he may well have given a member of the C-suite a heads-up by text or verbal before doing so.

And I can’t really see there being any fallout over saying it is “go time.”
They’ve all seen Izzy Mandelbaum. They know it is more of an exhortation than a criticism. Can’t see there being much of an issue.

Bulging Twine

Since Jan 1
by Pts %

West

1 Oilers
2 Kraken
3 Avalanche
4 Kings
5 Predators
6 Golden Knights
7 Jets
8 Blackhawks
9 Flames
10 Wild
11 Stars
12 Sharks
13 Blues
14 Ducks
15 Coyotes
16 Canucks

Bruce McCurdy

Fire the GM! Trade the team!!

kgo

I can’t remember who first suggested it…and I highly doubt Holland would dump a newly acquired FA…but adding Jack Campbell and James Reimer to the deal instead of retaining on EK might just make SJ come to the table.

To SJ:
Jack Campbell ($5M for +4 years)
Tyson Barrie ($4.5M for +1 year)
Yamo ($3.0 for +1 year)
Derek Ryan ($1.25M expiring)

Total =13.75M

To Edm:

EK ($11.5M for +4 years)
James Reimer ($2.25M expiring).

Total =$13.75M

The money clears perfectly, nobody has to retain…considering they’ll need a backup for next year, SJ will have a much easier time stomaching 4 years of a potentially +.910% goalie than EK’s salary.

Campbell for Reimer is nearly a wash in terms of quality,

Yamo, while I love his heart, is not built for playoff hockey and is rapidly deteriorating due to the rigors of NHL hockey.

EK for Barrie is a MASSIVE upgrade, despite Barrie’s talents and chemistry in the room

Losing Ryan, a useful bottom 6 player and RHC who has outperformed contract and expectations is painful but palatable.

Add a 1st or two to close the deal.

Next year Edm rolls with Pickard as the backup, on league min

PJ and Janmark expire freeing up $4.2M

Lucic and Seksy fall off the cap clearing $2.25.

Skinner’s raise eats up $1.9M.

If we assume a conservative cap jump of $1M that leaves us $4.5M to sign Bouch, McLeod, let’s assume they require $3M that leaves us room to add 2 more league min FWds bringing us to 2G 10F 7D.

At this point we dump Foegle or Kulak or even Bouch clearing $2.75M to bring us to 12 or 13 Fwds.

If the cap Jumps by $2.5M or more, we keep Foegle/Kulak/Bouch

Next Season:

Nuge 97 Hyman
Kane Leo Holloway
Feogle Mcleod Kostin
Plug Shore Plug

Nurse EK
Broberg Bouch
Kulak Ceci
Desi

Skinner
Pickard

This leaves Neimo and Kesslring as 8 and 9th D
Bourgault and Lavoie as callups because we’ll have to start the season with league min players.

jp

The money clears perfectly, nobody has to retain…

The money clears but for 2 fewer players. I assume the Oilers could no longer ice a 20-man roster following this trade, as it’s stated.

Munny 2.0

Luke Gazdic was on Inside Sports tonight and he was asked a question by Reid about how players really feel about internal competition and the trade deadline… and Luke really opened up. One truly stunning tidbit about Vern Fiddler that makes you wonder how much stuff really goes on.

You can find the episode here:

https://globalnews.ca/edmonton/program/inside-sports-with-reid-wilkins/

It’s the second half hour (easy to tell which link) and the question starts at 7:52, but I do recommend the whole interview because there are some other nice bits about life as a player.

kgo

Sounds like the definition of tampering on Poile’s behalf if he responded with anything but…new phone who dis?

Munny 2.0

I didn’t want to go there out of respect for Allan, so I would like to clarify that at no time did Gazdic allege that Poile responded at all.

But that should tell people how much trade deadlines affect the players.

Gage was covering for the players last night. Bob called him on it. Good on ‘im.

OriginalPouzar

“If it was the owner saying Hey Bob light a fire under Holland’s ass on live television, I don’t think that’s very good management. I think if you are the owner, if ou don’t want the guy to do the job then you fire him today and find someone else to do the job”

I didn’t mean to misrepresent anything that was said and truly apologize if I did. The above is a quote (and the premise of the quote was mentioned a few times) which is what I was speaking to and my opinion that I think its very very out there that the owner went to Bob on this. That’s all.

Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
kgo

I’m confused, Gazdic did imply that Poile responded, he said he was traded the next day…looks like the players were in NJ together in 17 and fiddler went back to Nashville.

I’m also confused about “out of respect for LT” and LTs comments about misrepresenting…please clarify

Munny 2.0

No, he did not.

€√¥£€^$

Just musing about Future Considerations deals that Holland has done during his tenure in E-Town.

1-Dylan Wells to Carolina to help them with their Goalie quota for the Kraken expansion draft.

2-Alex Stallock to SJ when they were desperate for goaltending help (he didn’t help).

Interesting that both ‘tenders played for the Blackhawks this season and actually put up the best numbers in that role (Wells only played 20 minutes).

Has an FC ever actually come into play down the road, where another GM does a solid back for a fellow GM?

Just wondering if anyone knows.

Last edited 1 year ago by €√¥£€^$
Munny 2.0

There was the Kris Draper deal. He was in Winnipeg’s minor system and traded to Detroit for FC. Back then you could trade cash and so a few months or so later when the Jets asked them to complete the trade, they sent a cheque for $1. One dollar.

He proceeded to play 1157 games for the Wings lol.

And the scouting, wow.

I believe usually what happens is they agree to swap conditional picks in the future. So EDM trades Pujo to CHI for future considerations say. Some time next year they agree to swap 7th rounders if CHI has the higher pick.

What I don’t know is how ridiculous they can make the conditions within the constraints of the league’s allowable conditions.

Last edited 1 year ago by Munny 2.0
Munny 2.0

I believe usually what happens is they agree to swap conditional picks in the future. So EDM trades Pujo to CHI for future considerations say. Some time next year they agree to swap 7th rounders if CHI has the higher pick.

Just to be clear here, that condition doesn’t vest, and they knew it wouldn’t and the trade doesn’t consummate but it satisfies the required exchange of consideration* the first trade stipulated.

So because nothing ever actually happens, we never hear about it and the trade just disappears into history.

It’s just a way to trade someone for nothing when there’s no real value there. A trade contract is still required and thus consideration that is valid and licit in the league’s eyes must be exchanged. Eventually.

*A word which has a legal connotation many people are unaware of. Basic contract law should be taught in high school lol. Start signing them at 18…

Last edited 1 year ago by Munny 2.0
jp

Flames prevail over Arizona.
Stars lose to P. Kane and the Blackhawks.
Jets lose to the Islanders.
(all games in regulation)

OriginalPouzar

My goodness, the Oilers really are right there for the conference lead…..

Redbird62

If Nashville were to win its 2 games in hand on every one except Colorado, first to tenth in the conference would be a total of 9 points. With an extended slump or a hot streak anyone one of those 10 teams could conceivably miss the playoffs or win the Conference.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Ummmm yup

Some of us have been saying this was likely to happen since early Jan.

Many LTers refused to believe cause it messes with their belief that we aren’t a contender and need to turnover 1/3 the lineup at the deadline.

I covet me some EK but that’s an off-season move. Can’t mess up the chemistry that much. Patty Kane for picks? Yes please!

In ten days the Oilers will be within 4 of everyone but Boston and the Canes. It will mindfuck this place lol

Redbird62

As Meatloaf sang: “Two out of Three Ain’t Bad.”; though any other combination of final results with a Flames loss would have been preferred.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Hehehe anyone worried about Patty Kane’s productivity needs to find a new hobby lol

Munny 2.0

This is turning into one of the best “fuck you all” weeks in NHL history.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Right?

Reja

And he’s doing this on only one hip apparently.

hopeoil

Patrick Kane out here making me look bad 🙁

Reja

He finally has something to play for with the trade deadline nearing. I sure hope he goes to the Eastern conference unless we pick him up.

GarbanzoHumanBean

This feels like a late 90s Yankees move. Sometimes you need to trade for a guy so he’s not playing against you in the playoffs. Vegas or Dallas would be sooo much better with Kane. So would the oilers.

Munny 2.0

I was so happy to see those Blues players head east.

Redbird62

I thought I would have a look at where McDavid’s current season stacks up among past seasons for power play points. At 51 PP points so far this season, Connor’s already sits tied with 10 other players for 50th bes for PP points in a single season. Based on the top 49 seasons listed ahead of his current season, he actually has a decent shot of getting as high as 4th place all time.

This is one realm of the statistics dominated by Mario. He has the top 4 PP seasons all time at 80, 79, 79 and and 66. 15 PP points in 24 remaining games seems very doable. Gretzky’s best PP season was 61 points but is was in LA in 93/94 His best season in Edmonton was 57 points in 81/82 and he had 3 others in the low 50s which Connor will pass soon. The top 3 would be a real stretch.

While it is true that Lemieux racked up a lot more pp points per game played than Gretzky, its not necessarily because Lemieux was better at game state. In all his years in Edmonton, the Oilers averaged 4 power plays per game with most of those seasons being between 3.4 to 4..2 with the one season that skewed the average up,*87-88 is the one where he missed 16 games. In 2 of Lemieux’s highest PP seasons, Pittsburgh was getting over 6 PP per game or 50% more that what the Oilers got with Gretzky. Mario did get the 79 points in 95/96 while only getting 5 PPs per game.

Connor is achieving his PP points in a season where the Oilers are averaging only 3.5 per game. Remarkable.

And to those that complain his amazing season is only because of the PP, 16 of the 49 seasons currently ahead of McDavid on that list are by forwards who scored more PP points than EVP (several D in among the 49 had more PP points than EVP but that is less unusual). In 2 of Mario’s top 3 PP seasons, when he scored 168 and 161 points, his PP>EVP. The likes of Savard, Stasny, Hawerchuk, Brett Hull, Crosby, Ovechkin, and Selanne also had remarkable point total seasons where their PP points exceeded their EVP. And Crosby won the Art Ross in his season like that even though 5 other players had more EVP.

€√¥£€^$

This is a fantastic post, thank you for compiling this information!

Side

I love when I refresh the scoreboard on my phone and the 1-0 score for Calgary becomes 1-3.

Side

I was greedy and refreshed too much. 3-3 currently. I am sorry everyone.

Reja

Watching the Coyotes game and it’s so sad Saskatoon never had a team. They were so close and had the rug pulled up on the City and the Province at the last minute.

Psyche

As a Saskatchewan resident, Saskatoon doesn’t have the population base to support a competitive NHL team. Winnipeg has the advantage of having a large %age of the population living within a couple hours of the capital city. The NHL has too many teams. We can all see the effects of this.

LMHF#1
Reja

I knew Saskatchewan farmers that would drive down for Oiler games view the game then drive back Home with a round trip of more than 8 hours.

Optimism is like heroin

So this season I am coming around to leaving McD & Drai together at 5v5.

McD-Drai-FA add or whoever is hot from bottom 6
RNH-Kane-Hyman
McLeod-Janmark-Ryan
Foegle-Yamamoto

That gives you 2 offensive lines and a goal suppression line with your 4th line giving you the chance to get McD or Drai out against opponents 4th line. Would like to see a top 6 winger or an upgrade on Ryan to help the pk.

DBO

Random fun trade rumour.

How much fun would it be if Karlsson went back to Ottawa. They cleared cap with a zaitsev move. That would be a great story.

Reja

Why?

Diablo

The cap space they bought today is going to be needed to pay for Stutzle and Debrincat’s extensions. Crazy that they are already a cap strapped team that needs to attach a sweetener to trade bad contracts for cap space, but they’re not close to being a playoff team in the East. Everyone was hyping them up this past off season but they’ve done a complete face plant. They remind me of the HOPE Oilers teams.

kgo

Could we trade PJ away, and get him right back at 50% retained and spend a pick? Or would the NHL get mad and make us send a 2nd to Calgary

OriginalPouzar

If a team retains on a player, they cannot re-acquire the player for a year but I”m not sure there is a restriction on what you propose….

kgo

If this becomes a trend for players on expiring contracts….i’m taking credit.

Last edited 1 year ago by kgo
Archetype

The more I think about it, the more I like LT’s suggestion yesterday – Weegar, if he’s even available. Less assets to acquire, easier cap hit to accommodate this year, and his raise next year is also manageable.

Decent defensive numbers this year, but perhaps marred by poor goaltending in Cowtown.

With the departure of Zaitsev, maybe the Sens would have interest in Barrie as an offensive RHD and flip Weegar to us after acquiring him?

Primetime

He’s a hometown boy, I think it’s Weegar they actually want.
They may just be making room for a summertime trade, but if it gets done before trade deadline I wonder what Treliving has in mind with the cap space?

Last edited 1 year ago by Primetime
Archetype

Parayko? Seems like a Sutter type.

Ryan

Weegar’s interesting. I like to look a d who’ve moved from one team to the next.

Weegar was a fancy stat darling when he played for Florida. It appears he was zoomed a bit by Ekblad.

Now on Calgary, he’s playing second pair with Chris Tanev and the offense has dried up. (0.29 points/game vs 0.55 points/game). He also plays a fair bit with Zadarov who’s bottom pairing.

Calgary’s interesting because on PuckIQ, they have a pretty even balance of top four d against the elites instead of a clearly defined hierarchy. They shelter their bottom pair.

The DFF% numbers looks good for Weegar, but Sutter’s from the school of “I believe in shot volume…”

Also of note, Weegar and Ekblad played mostly with Barkov as their centre. Here, in Calgary, he’s playing more of the Adam Larsson minutes. His most common centre is Backland (3rd line).

Weegar’s still a good defensemen, but maybe not as good as they thought when they extended him at $6.25 x 8 years.

–>> He passes the JP Boston test. He plays over 17 minutes per night at 5v5 with a FF%Rel that’s positive. +7.15 !!!

He was over 1pt per hour for the past 3 years at 5v5. Now’s he’s under at 0.85.

He’s playing a minute less at 5v5 than last year. He’s playing 2 minutes and 40 seconds less per game than last year. He’s second on the Flames in 5v5 toi/game and 3rd overall (all game states). He’s not playing a lot of special teams on either the PP or PK for the Flames.

Edit: When I first heard LT mention Weegar, I thought there’s no way they trade him let alone to us.

After looking at his minutes, results, age, and that contract extension, I could see them wanting to get out of that.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
Ryan

His Evolving Hockey numbers: overall percentile // offensive percentile // defensive percentile

This year: 57-3-99
Last year: 77- 81-65

maudite

He’s getting a lot of offensive zone starts

Archetype

Thanks for this in-depth reply.

I agree, Weegar’s offense is a little shy this year, but I think he’s a better 5v5 player. While they currently have similar GF/GA stats this year, Weegar is 47.1 xGF, 33.6 xGA, and 58.4 xGF%. Barrie is 40.2 xGF, 36.3 xGA, and 52.6 xGF%.

I think he’s an upgrade, even with the new contract next year.

Last edited 1 year ago by Archetype
Diablo

If we’re going to add one more massive contract to the mix, then Oilers need to aim higher … and find a way to get Karlsson. Let Calgary hold the bag on a declining over-priced Weegar.

Archetype

Karlsson is on another level. I don’t think anyone disputes that. But, you can’t “find a way” without a willing dance partner(s). There’s likely too much retention required for too many years for it to realistically happen.

I think we should expect a different acquisition on D, if one happens at all.

Darth Tu

Chicago getting a second and 4th and a year and a bit of Zaitsev seems like a good bit of business for a tanking team. Stacking up the picks!

defmn

And preparing to move McCabe for a few more.

Last edited 1 year ago by defmn
northerndancer

I would love to see Karlsson as an oiler.

Before the Rangers game someone suggested that an 8-6 Oiler/Ranger game seven final would be a realistic treat. Mark me down for that.

Karlsson has the ability to transport or pass or shoot and is an extremely effective fourth forward in the attacking zone. Think PP level skills whenever he is on the ice with a few of the better offensive players. Think Makar. Those days of Nuge hanging back to replace some marauding yet ineffective ‘offensive’ defenseman should be in the mirror.

And he is highly underrated as a defender.

I think the current stretch pass strategy is based on current D weaknesses in transporting the puck yet Woodie wanting to take advantage of the skills of the team once the the puck is into the O zone. Sooner the better.

Karlsson puts a different animal on the ice and will force the opposition to abandon their side board coverage to address the threats of Karlsson with the puck or overloading the attacking numbers. Something the Oilers haven’t had in a while.

OriginalPouzar

Kostin is on the 2-game road trip.

Kane is not (Evander or Patrick).

jp

Kane reportedly out 2 weeks, if you missed it.

Reja

We’re missing 2 physical forecheckers, time for Holland to pull the trigger and add a Hathaway type that won’t cost much. It’s time to cut bait and get out from under the 3.1 Million Yamo collects for another year.

OriginalPouzar

The speculation (Seravelli) is that the market on Hathaway is similar to what the flames overpaid for Jarnkrok – which was a 2nd, 3rd and 7th. Heck no.

Bulging Twine

for Hathaway?! wow that’s crazy

Saskie

Am I out to lunch, or has Evander only played 24 games so far this year ? 14 before his injury on Nov. 8 and 10 more since back? And he had 19 points . That’s not bad .. it will be nice to see him get healthy and back in line up.

OriginalPouzar

Ya, 19 points in 24 games is good production but, since he came back, he’s been a hot mess in the neutral and defensive zone and is 4-9 goals at 5 on 5 in 9 games.

jp

A lot of brutal percentages too though (both SH% and SV%). Pretty certain he hasn’t been nearly as bad as the 4-10 goals suggest (room to improve his play as well too for sure).

Primetime

Always lots of talk about how the veteran Keith elevated Bouchard’s game.

I’m dreaming about the same veteran Swedish presence to lift Broberg’s play to another level and take the second pairing minutes…

Karlsson or Ekholm to pair with Bro would be great.

You know who else would have been ideal in that role? Adam Larsson….

OriginalPouzar

Trades leading up to the NHL deadline are predominately for players with expiring contracts (mostly UFAs) for futures.

Of course the odd “hockey trade” for a player with term is made but, if I remember correctly, its somewhat rare this time of year, definitely the exception.

I am hearing/reading so much speculation the last while regarding players with term, and massive term: Ekholm, Parayko, Karlsson, Chychrun, etc., etc.

Do we normally have so many players with term brought up at this time of year or is this season a bit different.

maudite

Different.

Different in a way like Chicago setting detonator on team and exploding useful parts off that seemed still worth keeping.

Different in a way not likely to see better players bridged with massive qualifying offer 1 year from ufa and instead seems like locking in guys or signing grave digger end deals cap/age wise…at least until cap starts rising and some start managing like drunk sailors on shire leave maybe?

I think fearing to let go of pieces while clearly needing significant retool finally seems somewhat pointless, if clearly in mushy middle.

Market improvements.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Redbird62

I am not sure what the attraction would be for the Oilers to target Josh Anderson. He brings a physical presence and he scores goals. But is that what the Oilers actually need more of right now. The Oilers lead the NHL in goals per game and since Christmas, in a virtual tied with the Bruins in 5 on 5 goals per 60.

And while Josh Anderson scores a decent amount of goals, his total point production 5 on 5 is at currently at 3rd line levels. His 5 on 5 points per 60 is 1.59 which is good for 221 in the league for any forward playing more than 200 minutes. On the Oilers he would rank in a tie for 10th with Derek Ryan. And that 1.59 isn’t far off his career high of 1.79 achieved in 2016/17 and 2018/19. (the 1.9 he achieved his rookie season was in 12 games so not worthy of being considered a career high).

If he was an upgrade as a rental for the rest of season and for the playoffs, maybe. But I don’t believe the Oilers should take on that full contract ($ and term). There would have to be better uses of the cap space than for what Anderson brings. And probably a better use of the assets that would be sent out to acquire him as well.. I’d rather count on Kostin, Holloway, Lavoie, Bourgault to be the future top 6 wingers to replace Jesse and maybe Kailer than have Josh Anderson do it.

JimmyV1965

I’ve been defending an Anderson trade today, but I’m really 50-50 on the deal. What we really need is a puck moving dman.

Redbird62

That would be the route I would like to see them to take as well. Or the two way right handed center.

Eh Team

I don’t think anyone is picking up 4+ years of Anderson unless there is 50% retention by Canadiens and even then it’s a hard sell.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

People wanting Josh Anderson makes me laugh. No advanced stats will shake my eye test of this player. Edmonton will eat Josh Anderson alive.

I call him the “useless one” on the Habs. He’ll chip in a goal now and then but he disappears for weeks at a time. Does absolutely nothing on the ice. Zip, zero, nada.

Think JP at $5.25×4 million and you get the idea. One of the worst contracts in the league frankly.

During the Habs Cinderella Run he netted a grand total of 6 points in 2022 playoff games. He’s score at 0.33 points/game in the playoffs.

He scores when scoring doesn’t matter and he’s never once elevated during the post season.

Hard no on this player.

Diablo

He’s like Dustin Penner … fans pine for this type of player … until they are on your team.

We already have a superior version of Josh Anderson … just need to get Evander healthy and back in the lineup. He even costs less too.

OriginalPouzar

I see Brad Isbister when I see Josh Anderson.

Munny 2.0

Oooh, that’s a heckuva burn lol.

Evander-lite is pretty accurate I think. He certainly seems to be valued by the Habs org. I don’t read Montreal media often but when his name comes up nationally I never seem to see anything negative from the Habs reporters, which isn’t necessarily an easy thing in the original fishbowl.

I don’t think we need him, I don’t see Holland paying the price or wanting to fit that salary into his cap structure. He already has better for less. This might change if the Habs really are looking to move him and thus are willing to take less assets and/or retain (which no way they’re doing for that long).

One thing about Holland that we know is that he values wheels. And that is not a strength of Anderson. I don’t think this is the droid we’re looking for.

Prairie_Sentinel

VGK with a minor move – picked up Dysin Mayo from Arizona for a 5th round pick and Shea Weber’s contract

Redbird62

That could be a precursor to Arizona being able to move Chychrun or any other large salary players (eg. Ghost) out without having to take salary back. I mentioned last week, that Arizona was very close to the cap minimum, and if they traded Chychrun, with 100% of his salary coming off their cap calculation, they might be below the minimum. By picking up Weber’s $7,000,000 and not putting the contract into LTIR, since they don’t need to, they have more flexibility to move and extra $7,000,000 in salaries without worrying about staying above the cap floor.

Munny 2.0

Very nice to see Pujo get two late shifts in the 3rd last night, including the last shift of the game.

If he was younger, I’d be saying he looks ready to pop. Would love it if Holland can find a way to keep him for the playoffs, where the slate is wiped clean and maybe the player can find the rebirth he needs.

But I don’t see that happening considering the cap

FabioRoberto

Does the salary cap not count in the playoffs?

OriginalPouzar

It counts in the period leading up to the playoffs and, in that period, he has a $3MM cap hit and the Oilers require cap out in order to make any transaction, right?

FabioRoberto

Exactly my point after the regular season how many players can you have on the roster eligible to play?

FabioRoberto

It’s not written in stone that he’s 100% the man to be moved out in any deal.

hopeoil

Patrick Kane is scoring approximately 1.7
5v5p/60 this season while looking horrendous by isolated metrics like RAPM. His microstats by AllThreeZones have taken a huge hit year over year as well.

Are the Lowetide Posters clamouring for a reputation add?

McSorley33

Like Ryan O’Reilly in St. Louis not much too be motivated about playing in Chicago this year…

jp

He’s 2/3 of a season removed from a year where he scored 92 points, 2.26 5v5 P/60, and had basically a 50%GF on a team that finished under 43%GF on the year. I’m fairly certain he still has some gas left in the tank.

hopeoil

My biggest concern is that the decline is injury related. I know he said the hip injury rumours have been overblown, but he wouldn’t be the first hockey player who hasn’t been totally honest about an injury.

jp

Yeah, I guess 7 goals and 10 points in his last (not quite) 4 games might soothe those concerns a little bit.

I think it’s more a situation issue for Kane. This has to have been a tough season for him with the team decimated, and thinking about moving on from where he’s played his entire career (his wife is attached to Chicago as well I believe). And as Redbird mentioned elsewhere, he’s playing with worse linemates than ever before.

Though all of that (distraction, poor team, age, injury) he’s still been a clear top 6 level scorer, and is coming closer to outscoring the opposition than his teammates are (his GF%rel is strong, as always, though the raw numbers is ugly).

He might not be that expensive either. If he choses the Oilers as the destination then maybe he doesn’t even cost a 1st or top prospect. If that ended up being the case, it would be a pretty easy decision even if you take his game this season at face value.

Munny 2.0

Couple notes from the Rumour World…

—lots of speculation that Chychrun wasn’t being held out for “trade-related reasons” but that was actually cover for a minor ding

—Chris Johnston now reporting that it is believed EK would waive to come to the Oilers

—Erik Engels reporting Habs are not actively shopping Anderson, but NJD might take a run at him if they can’t swing Meier

—Dan Kingerski, Pitt reporter claming he has heard the Pens have made Petry available from a Western Conf exec.

—Dreger says the Red Wings don’t see themselves as sellers right now. Making a playoff push

–LeBrun thinks the Canes would take a run at Kane if they fail on Meier. And Seravalli reported yesterday that the Blues are pitching on Meier too.

That Meier deal is really hanging up the market right now… and will be having an effect on prices too.

OriginalPouzar

Thanks for the summary.

I don’t understand why the Meier deal would be holding up the market as its essentially a totally different type of trade than the normal deadline sell/acquire an expiring UFA contract.

Sure, Meier is a free agent but he’s restricted and under team control – its a totally different market from the rental market, no?

YKOil

Over at DailyFaceoff, Seravalli mentions that Washington might be a seller.

I am intrigued. They may be a better trade partner for the Oilers than other teams. I like three of the players mentioned: Jensen, Van Reimsdyk, and Hathaway.

Wondering if a:

Jensen, Hathaway, $1 million retained
FOR
Puljujarvi (or Yamamoto), Neimelainen, and 2023 2nd

(… if it is Van Reimsdyk instead of Jensen then there is no salary retention; and maybe the 2nd becomes a 3rd as Van Reimsdyk become a depth piece)

makes any sense?

Looked over at PuckIQ and both Jensen and Hathaway have decent Elite numbers (though on a team with better goaltending overall so a little salt is required)

jtblack

yes, they would be a good trade partner and we could keep our 2023 1st ….

Redbird62

The absence of Ovechkin who was over in Russia for over a week due to his Father passing, was hard on Capitals going 0-4 in that stretch . He might be back Thursday, but hard to say how his play will be affected. That’s tough for anyone to go through. Ovechkin seems to be a player driven by emotion.

They have 4 games before the trade deadline, the Ducks twice, the Rangers and Buffalo. If they win 3 or 4, that could influence what they do as they would be right back in the middle of it. With Backstrom and Wilson only recently back (they missed the whole first half of the season) and Carlson expected back some time after the deadline, they might believe they can make a push to get in.

They might not be buyers this season just to get in, but pretty hard to tell that veteran group that they want to be sellers if they are still very close. Can’t say for sure though, because Washington management may be able to convince Ovie etal. that it is better to trade a few of their pending UFA’s at the deadline and get something that can help for the next season or two, rather than hanging on to them and watching them walk for nothing in July.

For that reason, if they do become sellers, I could see them preferring prospects and maybe a 2023 first round pick. They aren’t rebuilding yet with the aging corp signed through to at least 24/25. Other draft picks could be dealt at the draft itself to get players, but they might have more leverage now to get good prospects back rather than in the off season.

ArmchairGM

I’d be asking about Orlov.

jp

Looked over at PuckIQ and both Jensen and Hathaway have decent Elite numbers (though on a team with better goaltending overall so a little salt is required)

Surprisingly the two teams 5v5 SV% are almost identical (.916 vs .915) (and .904 vs .901 in all situations).

Agree Hathaway and Jensen do look good, though I still think Orlov would be the bigger add if things from Washington start shaking loose.

Chuck Noland

I think Ken Holland (and Oiler players) covet Erik Karlsson.

Extraordinarily difficult to achieve by the deadline.

If Holland likes him enough, taking a run at him at the Entry Draft makes things a lot easier for Holland from a Cap point of view.

Holland would have to save all of his 1st round picks until the draft, and subsequent moves whether at the draft or through the summer would include moving out JP (who almost certainly goes at the deadline) Foegele, Ceci, Yamo and Barrie.

The tell tale sign would be if Holland moves JP, keeps all of his 1st round picks and uses only 2nds, and 3rd’s to add some inexpensive rentals for depth at the deadline

At the draft Karlsson (with approx. 20% retained) for two 1st’s plus, would put him on the roster for 2024 onward at $9m which is possible / doable

Last edited 1 year ago by Chuck Noland
Chuck Noland

Anyone familiar with who leads the NHL in “Expected Goals at 5v5”?

Chuck Noland

That’s Right!!!

Zach Hyman !

Bag of Pucks

Loved the Rockford reference, LT.

When I was in high school, I had a good friend who we always thought would be a Hollywood stuntman some day. He could spin a Rockford on a dime, do multiple controlled 360s, drive at high speed backwards, controlled slides, the works. Three of us had a 2nd block spare in Grade 11 and we spent that entire semester as passengers in the stunt car. The most fun you could have for a tank of gas. Only hit the ditch twice! Another time we all pitched in to buy a beater and then we thrashed it on a homemade rally course on the farm.

Great memories. The things you do when you’re young and still feeling indestructible.

MushedPeas

Friends and I always talked about grabbing beaters for a DIY rally. Glad to see someone live the dream.

Bag of Pucks

I blame it on watching Dukes of Hazzard at an impressionable age. Waylon Jennings and Daisy Dukes. What a combo. Separately of course. I’m not advocating for Waylon wearing Daisy Dukes! lol

Last edited 1 year ago by Bag of Pucks
OriginalPouzar

Well, two days in a row and I need to post some credit for Mark Spector (sorry to the masses). Tortarella with some post game quotes about play 4 games in 6 nights and how the NHL basically bag-skated them with the schedule, etc., etc. Spec calls him out on that whining which, given the VAST difference in travel between the majority of the eastern conference teams and those in the west, I’m totally on board with.

Eh Team

Well, same with Edmonton playing Montreal earlier. But Torts is right, it is crap. Cut the schedule down by 6-8 games and the standard of play will be more consistent. Right now there are scheduled losses which is unfair to those fans buying tickets.

Ice Sage

Since it is the home team that usually wins these games, ticket-buying fans go home happy, often with the same entertaining fatigue-driven momentum change script as last night. Can’t see the NHL (or any pro sports league) decreasing games.

OriginalPouzar

Absolutely zero disrespect intended towards the host but, catching up on the show from this morning, I don’t imagine for a second that the Oilers owner went around his senior manager to Bob Stauffer to send a message publicly and speak passive aggressively to his manger. For me, that just doesn’t seem remotely reasonable. Your mileage may very but that’s my thoughts on it.

Bag of Pucks

We can always count on you for OEG damage control.

jtblack

:

Kert

:

Is this the colon check I’ve heard so much about?

innercitysmytty

How is that OEG damage control? Seems like a pretty reasonable take to me.

Bag of Pucks

A ‘take’ is the content. Damage control is the ‘intent.’ Both things can be true.

The speculative ‘take’ referenced on the radio potentially paints the OEG in a negative light. OP feels obliged to invalidate that speculation asap. That is the very definition of damage control.

Diablo

I think it’s more reasonable to believe that Stauffer simply expressed his own feelings on the matter, than to buy into a more convoluted idea that he did so at the behest of the owner.

That type of thinking is click bait material.

And Stauffer’s not wrong – everyone who has a job working in an NHL front office is privileged to have those jobs … especially the ones getting paid 5 million per year. With that position, status and compensation, comes great expectations. The criticism is deserved when you fail to live up to those expectations.

jp

That’s a lot of speculative ‘intent’ on someone else’s ‘take’ right there.

Bag of Pucks

It falls under the category of pattern recognition.

JOFA

lol that was funny

Side

You seem to like telling people who disagree with you to ignore your posts if they don’t have anything meaningful to contribute to the conversation.

You may want to take your own advice in this case.

innercitysmytty

Thanks for the patronizing response and insolent take.

Last edited 1 year ago by innercitysmytty
Bag of Pucks

You asked. I answered.

OriginalPouzar

Damage control?

Wow, it seems I have more power that I thought I had to influence (which was/is zero).

I listened to the hosts radio show, I heard an opinion on an Oilers related matter than I didn’t agree with and think is pretty out there, I posted my thoughts on it on his blog dealing with the subject matter.

It seems more power is being given to the post/opinion than presumed.

Bag of Pucks

6 upvotes and counting agreeing with your opinion does not equate to zero influence. You would certainly have an influence on this board if for no other reason than the sheer volume of content you post.

If you honestly thought your opinions counted for absolutely nothing, why would you post here? That would be a colossal waste of time. Every human feels the need to be seen, heard and validated.

1952barry

missed it; got a short explanation?

Munny 2.0

Agreed. Zero chance this happened.

Been some bizarre things said around these parts about that segment.

AsiaOil

Agree, if the owner wants to tell his GM something he can simply pick up the phone and call him. No need to involve a 3rd individual or public hints through media figures. That’s a frankly ridiculous idea.

Last edited 1 year ago by AsiaOil
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Does it matter if the Oilers win the division?

Low-seeded teams frequently win the cup.

Make the playoffs and then win. All I care about.

Reja

Judging by our record and how tight we play at home it might be better to start on the road.

jtblack

This is not accurate. Low seeded teams go on runs, but rarely win the Cup.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

St. Louis, LA, Pittsburgh, and Tampa all won cups recently and did not win their division.

Reja

We look like a totally different team at home. We come out slow, timid, players worried about making a mistake. When we’re on the road the team is loose and explosive plus the opposition is presssing for the fans and Oilers are deadly on the counter attack.

dulock

It’s not necessary but it would be nice. If you win the division, you might face Minnesota in the first round. If you’re in a wildcard spot, you could get Winnipeg or Vegas first and Colorado second. It’s not the end of the world but there is a benefit to winning the division.

Diablo

Minnesota is kryptonite for the Oilers …I’d like to avoid them at all costs. Much rather play Vegas or LA.

OriginalPouzar

While the top 6 of the Flyers is not the elite players of the league, last night Vinny D. played most of his minutes against the top Flyers including their top d-men.

This is a fairly big shift in how he’s been deployed and I think its a great arrow that Vinny was strong against middle opposition.

I look for more of it. Will there be many minutes vs. Crosby and/or Malkin on Thursday?

We will see.

BuceriasBrian

If we want to win Stanley we need to bolster our defence. Nashville has a couple D we could use, looking at Josi or Ekholm, both would be great.

Last edited 1 year ago by BuceriasBrian
meanashell11

Yeah, they are just going to hand them over for table scraps!

northerndancer

“It was breathtaking. He’s impossible.” (LT above)

Win or lose I cannot tire of watching this great hockey player. Despite the shackles being placed on him by NHL refereeing priorities and rule book interpretations Connor McDavid continues to excite and dominate. Watching hundreds of games featuring a player with the creativity of Denis Savard, speed of Pavel Bure, stickhandling skill of Peter Forsberg, release of Mike Bossy and jaw-set coompetitiveness of Messier never grows old. I am sure I missed some superlatives here. Greatest single player impact on the game in my lifetime, maybe matched only by that of Robert Orr.

1952barry

they had a guy in the 80’s who was amazing

northerndancer

true. So true. I enjoyed that guy too! I know it is somewhat heretical to say it but this new guy plays without a net (Semenko, Messier,Mc-sor-your-face etc). And in an era of extreme scouting and now analytics, strong systems play, against completely committed (trained) and dedicated athletes, massive, athletic and well coached goaltenders. To be able to rise above the rest so dramatically is so amazing. Different eras. You can appreciate all the great players for different reasons. Cheers.

winchester

None of the names mentioned are as good as McDavid.

The great Gretzky was absolute best in his era and a little past.

But there has never been a hockey player as skilled as McDavid.

northerndancer

Agree. That isn’t my point. Each were very good/exceptional at one aspect of hockeying. He is as good or better at ALL of those aspects of hockey-ing. That is remarkable. Breathtaking. Amazing. IMHO.

Reja

When you say skilled what are you referring to? Gretzky was lapping the field by 75 regular season points on numerous occasions in the Eighties. You need to revisit all the records 40 in regular season 15 in the playoffs and other accomplishments Gretzky has before you topple his statue down.

northerndancer

et tu troll-eh?

Diablo

And this is not even considering Lemieux …as good as Connor is, Mario was just absurdly huge and unbelievably skilled.

northerndancer

That is true. I loved watching Lemieux. And that gretsky guy had it too! But Mc D is so multi dimensional. Like Orr you can imagine him playing another position and being equally dominant as he is at forward. Goalie… not so much. All in good discussion. As fans we are so lucky to watch him every game. What a treat.

jp

I quite enjoyed the other posts, and we definitely are incredibly lucky to be able to watch McDavid on the daily.

I agree with you take on this in the bigger picture though. Whatever you want to call it, Gretzky was absurdly ahead of all of his peers at his peak. No one else has ever approached that level of scoring dominance before or since.

The 6 seasons from 81-82 through 86-87:
Wayne Gretzky scored:
473 437-782-1219

The number 2 (Mike Bossy) scored:
445 332-366-698

Over a 6 year period, Gretzky scored 75% more than the next highest scorer in the league.

Those 6 seasons (as you mentioned) Gretzky led the league in points over whoever was 2nd by 65, 72, 79, 73, 74 and 75 points. 5 different player finished 2nd, linemate Kurri the only repeat runner up.

Totally absurd domination. Nothing comes close.

BTW, I’m sure there’s room for 2 statues.

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
brobergstan

if nashville is selling as it is rumored they may be… they have a few pieces i would be very interested in.

Nino Niedereitter is a legit threat on the wing who plays a rugged, physical style and has some finish. Would slot into edmontons top 6 perfectly.

Tanner Jeannot is unlikely to ever score 20 again in his career but he is another rugged, physical player who is effective in a bottom 6 role.

if you could swap yammo or jp and some combo of picks/prospects for nino i would do it all day long.

ArmchairGM

Then, of course, there’s Mattias Ekholm.

Munny 2.0

You can see why Holland might be targeting Kane over Stauffer favourite Lafferty. I wasn’t really behind this thinking by Holland at first, but I’ve since come around

“Where does one play Nuge?” is really the question at the center of this play.

Myself I prefer The Centers Three strategy. Ie, one can play Nuge in the Top 6 at wing, or Nuge as 3C where he can (and has thus far this year) carve up lesser qualcomp. I like the depth TCT brings to the team. A lot.

But even with E. Kane in the line-up, it looks today that Nuge in the Top 6 is a better idea because the Oil are short one quality Top 6 winger.

So Holland has a choice. Go find a quality 3C who can bring something approximating what Nuge has to the 3rd line, or find a Top 6 winger that allows Nuge to carve up that 3rd line opp.

The only quality 3C with Toews off the market is Pageau, assuming the NYI fall out of the playoffs but beating The Crosbys twice recently means they’re still in it. There’s Eller too but he doesn’t appear to have that level of offense any more and might be closer to a 4C at this point in his career. And while Lafferty is a quality 3RW, he would be a 4C too, albeit a right-handed one.

And Kane is likely better at Top 6 winger than even Pageau is at 3C.

So why not take a swing for the fences?

hopeoil

I thought you firmly believed the Oilers did not need a top 6 winger.

Munny 2.0

I firmly believed in getting Toews for 3C so Nuge can play 1LW. Things have changed since I proposed that. Toews has removed himself from the trade market. Acciari was also a target of mine and he went early.

Given the present landscape, I can see Holland’s thinking on Kane.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

P. Kane would be outrageous hahahah.

Kane McD Kane

RNH Drai Hyman

jp

Relatedly (to a Kane addition and Nuge remaining in the top 6), the Oilers 3rd and 4th line guys are playing really well lately. That is, they look like they have a chance to hold their own even with Nuge in the top 6.

20 games since Jan 1st:
Name GP G-A-P Shots GF% SF% xGF% (latter 3 at 5v5)
McLeod 20 7-3-10 29 56.0 53.2 57.8
Janmark- 18 2-7-9 29 58.8 50.5 52.0
Foegele- 16 5-3-8 40 61.5 55.1 61.1
Ryan —- 19 5-1-6 28 66.7 58.0 63.3
Holloway 17 2-3-5 22 69.2 54.9 59.4
Kostin — 16 4-1-5 15 66.7 49.7 50.3
Puljujarvi 17 2-2-4 24 57.1 53.9 56.3
Yamamoto 8 2-1-3 11 50.0 45.7 49.3

That’s 8 names who are all performing pretty well. At least one would need to go to add P. Kane, but there could also be a bottom 6 add.

Looks like a pretty decent group to cobble together a 3rd and 4th line from though.

jp

Dare I add FO% to the list?

I’ll do all the Oilers who take draws. Since Jan. 1st these 5 have taken 140+ FOs each, with no other forward taking even 20.
Draisaitl 349 55.6%
McDavid 241 56.9%
Nuge — 212 40.6%
McLeod 210 53.8%
Ryan — 142 54.2%

Huh, very strong results since Jan. 1st for everyone but Nuge (team is 8th in the league in winning percentage). Maybe they don’t need to add a FO man that badly?

Munny 2.0

I was thinking the same as your first post. Over the past month or so the bottom 6 has looked excellent and we do have a plethora of bottom 6 players. We do not have the same abundance in the Top 6.

So why not?

jp

So why not?

For sure, if the price is right. And it should be reasonable if Kane chooses Edmonton. He’s clearly an upgrade on whoever he’s replacing.

Redbird62

Patrick Kane’s most common line mates this season have been Domi and Athanasiou. Each has had only one really decent offensive season in their careers. Kane’s exceptional hockey IQ is pretty much wasted with them.

I agree he would be a significant upgrade to the forward group. And as a rental, he doesn’t upset the long term cap situation. It would depend on the amount of futures required and whether the deal could be done in a way that allows the Oilers to have at least a 22 player roster for the balance of the regular season. For example, a 3 team trade with 75% retained – with Foegele’s and Jesse’s salaries going out in the deal (plus reasonable picks/prospects).

jp

Yup, definitely an intriguing possibility. And I have little doubt he’d be a legitimate offensive producer in Edmonton (or really anywhere he might end up post-deadline).

JimmyV1965

Josh Anderson is an intriguing add IMO. He has averaged 20 goals per 82 throughout his career. I would think 30 is achievable with McDavid or Drai as a C. The problem is injury. He has a long history of getting hurt. His $5.5 mill cap hit could be an issue too, but it’s not egregious, certainly not if he scores 30. His contract expires at age 32 and his five-team NTC shouldn’t be an issue. I don’t think he’s slow either. I always thought he had above average speed for a big man.

ArmchairGM

The injury issues are real. You say his career average is 20 goals per 82, yet he’s only ever scored 20 goals in a single season once, and that was 5 seasons ago. He’s poor defensively too.

Last edited 1 year ago by ArmchairGM
JimmyV1965

Injury is the issue. Also, I think a puck moving dman is the biggest priority. Although I don’t hate our defence, we don’t have anyone who can consistently make those short little passes in the dzone to move the puck forward.

jp

He’s poor defensively too.

I don’t want to argue the shortcomings and merits of Josh Anderson, but what is this based on?

ArmchairGM

All his “against Rels” (CA/60 Rel, xGA/60 Rel, SCA/60 Rel, etc) for the past 3 years show that the Canadiens allow more of everything when Anderson is on the ice, despite him getting <55% offensive zone starts.

You might find this article interesting:

https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-should-trade-anderson-2023-trade-deadline/

jp

Thanks for the reply.

I definitely don’t think Anderson makes sense for the Oilers, though I think you’re being a little hard on him and relying too much on numbers to make statements about specific aspects of his game.

I also wonder whether we’re looking at the same numbers since I’m seeing that Anderson got less than 47% O zone FO% in each of the last 2 seasons at 5v5, and is at 49% for the 3 years combined.

Reja

Josh Anderson is a power forward with speed Josh would open up ice for Connor and Leon.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

The date is September X, 2022. I’ve just returned from the future to tell you that after dispatching the Flyers 4-2 in late February that the Oilers sit 3 points from the Western Conference lead.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

You respond that this is reasonable and representative of a true cup challenger.

flea

24 games left, if the oilers win 12 of them they’d finish with 94 pts plus maybe a few OT points. That should be enough to get in.

If they want to win the division they likely need 15 wins minimum to get to 100 or so.

I think this next stretch against Boston (x2), Toronto (x2) and Winnipeg (x2) defines where they finish. Tread water (3-3) and they could still go on a run to win the division at the end. Lose a bunch (1-5) and they are going to be fighting for a playoff spot right untiL the end. Win 5 of 6 I think we are looking at the division favorites. It’s still a complete coin flip at this juncture.

innercitysmytty

Yeah, I was thinking if we go 13-11 that puts us in pretty good shape. Flames would need to go 17-8 to pass us. Could happen, but I doubt it.

Just J

It’s a shame McDavid couldn’t finish that goal. That back through the d move was a beauty and you could almost see him realize it as he made it happen. If he had put it in the net it would have been a goal that would get replayed for the next 20 years. I’m hoping he gets a chance to polish it up for a Saturday night.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

McDavid continues to make basketball plays.

That assist against Ottawa was basketball.

Breaking Morgan Reilly’s ankles was basketball.

He’s Jordan. He’s also Messi. He is different than all hockey players before him.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

I also really fear these revolutionary moves will be lost to history because they don’t end in goals. I need someone to pay me to put together a super cut of amazing Mcdavid moments that would otherwise be lost to time.

leadfarmer

I would hope Anderson is not the target.

godot10

It depends how much Montreal retains. Anything >33% becomes interesting.

Chris!

I also wonder if the Canadiens are interested in him as part of a package (say with Jesse Puljujarvi) for Josh Anderson.”

Epic troll.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I sincerely hope Anderson is not a target.

Inconsistent winger. Bad contract. Does not sound like a solution.

Darth Tu

How is Brogan Rafferty doing these days anyways? I really enjoyed the Brogan era on the blog.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Brogan is currently completing his last year of medical school. Top of his class. Brogan is a way better doctor than Evan Bouchard. And cheaper too.

On the weekends, he works with NASA.

Darth Tu

He’s so talented. I still was hoping he was going to win the Norris though.

ArmchairGM

There’s still time!

Shamus23

That was a huge win after 2 really bad periods. How about Stauffer in the 1st intermission. He seemed peeved.
Friedman thinks 1 in a million we get Karlsson
Also thinks we made an offer for Kane and that the Lafferty ask is too much for Holland
Be interesting to see what we get by next Friday.

He could surprise us all with guys we never thought of . Like LT on Anderson, Maybe an Orlov out of Washington ( if they have a bad week) . By next week the trade boards could change dramatically. Maybe that is what he is betting on .

Redbird62

Stauffer embarrassed himself a bit claiming he knows better than Gage how the players in the dressing room feel.

Munny 2.0

What are you talking about? First off no one is a bigger advocate for differing opinions than Stauffer. Secondly, what they’re going for in most segments is disagreement. Pundits often preface statements like, “this will make for bad radio or bad TV, but I’m going to agree with you here.” And thirdly, he never actually said what you claim he said.

Here are his actual words:

“I respectfully disagree, I’m around these guys on a day-to-day basis on both and the road Joaquin, and I’m here to tell you right now, I can sense it, I can feel it and you know what the impetus is… Ken Holland is well-compensated…”

So no disrespect. No mention of dressing rooms. Everything stated is factually true, and positions likely worked out before the cameras rolled, because that’s how they do these things. And he does know the players better than Gage.

Far far better.

Last edited 1 year ago by Munny 2.0
Redbird62

Stauffer was respectively disagreeing directly to comments Gage made about the players being able to ignore the noise from outside the dressing room and players wanting to make a difference. Ie. Their play is not being negatively impacted waiting for Holland to make a deal.

And Stauffer’s fact based rebuttal was based on “I can sense it, I can feel it”.

And while Stauffer may spend more time with some of the Oilers than Gage, Gage actually knows what it is like to be a player in professional hockey including the NHL.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I largely agree.

But Gage retired almost fifteen years ago. I think how players interact with the media, and the quantity of sports coverage has increased dramatically over the last decade. I imagine it is significantly harder for players to ignore outside noise.

Munny 2.0

And the embarrassing part?

By the way, Brown and Wilkins had basically the same discussion and while Reid is taking more of Principe’s spot in that discussion, Brown would not have agreed with Gage either.

So I guess it is too bad Rob Brown embarrassed himself. I mean it wasn’t directed at Gage or anything, but he did hold a different opinion than him and by your argumentation somehow that is embarrassing. Because of some notion of Gage’s “authority.”

TruthHurts98

Interesting you mention Josh Anderson, he might be the big body on the right side the Oilers need. Probably would be costly for the Oil. I for one, would like to see Lavoie called up and see what he can do in Oiler silks.

Durag

Costly in terms of remaining cap hit but Montreal would be giving him away in terms of acquisition cost.

JimmyV1965

Is $5.5 for a 20-goal scorer until age 32 an egregious contract? He’s never played with a centre even remotely as good as McDavid or Drai so 30 isn’t out of the question.

ArmchairGM

He has only ever scored 20 goals once. And so has Yamamoto, who is younger and half the cap hit and costs nothing to acquire.

JimmyV1965

Injury is the issue. He’s a much better scorer than Yamamoto. I don’t think that’s up for debate. But Anderson has been healthier since joining the Habs. He missed 10 games last year, but has otherwise been healthy.

ArmchairGM

He may be a better scorer, but he’s pretty bad defensively and costs nearly double against the cap. He’s also very inconsistent, doesn’t PK, etc.

No idea why any contender would target him.

JimmyV1965

Why is he bad defensively? His +/- is no worse than anyone else in the top six of the Habs. Maybe he is bad defensively. IDK. Someone else posted that he is slow and I’m pretty sure he has good speed for a big guy.

ArmchairGM

All his “against Rels” (CA/60 Rel, xGA/60 Rel, SCA/60 Rel, etc) for the past 3 years show that the Canadiens allow more of everything when Anderson is on the ice, despite him getting <55% offensive zone starts.

OriginalPouzar

I was just going to post a comparison to Yamamoto who had more goal, more assists and more points last season.

Diablo

You’re leaving out the part where Josh Anderson scored his one and only 20 goal season 5 years ago. Don’t tell me about pro-rated seasons … being able to stay healthy enough to play games is important.

And yes the contract is terrible wth 4 more years at 5.5 million after this season.

Woof, this is a terrible idea.

McSorley33

Ryan O’Reilly looks like he might fit into the Leafs lineup.

Forget goal/point scoring. He is obliterating people in the face off dot in his first few games there…yes, miniscule sample size.

It all behooves us to ratchet up our Leaf hatred.

Pretendergast

ROR as your 3rd line centre when healthy is certainly championship calibre. A dark day that would be.

Coilers2021

Early days indeed. Come the 1st round however, the Leafs have neither a goalie or the defence to match up against Tampa or Boston.

ROR is a legit player and I wish he was on the Oilers. He’s just what this team needs in a lot of ways. But like everything TML based, it’s just window dressing.

McSorley33

I hear you a ton on the goaltending for the Leafs and I certainly agree.

However, if ROR is your 3C – just not sure how much defending that Toronto D will be forced to do really.

One can *never* dismiss TB as Kucherov seems to be elevating his game here but in my viewings this year – they look older and slower than previous versions.

Kilhorn is 33 and slower (still producing of course)
Perry turns 38 this May
Bellemare turns 38 in March
Maroon turns 35 and was never not slow.

Speaking of D – Zach Bogosian is playing on the top pairing in TB with Hedman. Not sure if Bogo will survive that but we will see.

innercitysmytty

Thing is, TB will add Lafferty or similiar to bolster their bottom 6 speed and depth, as well as another D like Schenn. Expect them to be a very tough out in the playoffs again this year. Tough for TO to match that goaltending and it will likely come down to that as they are pretty evenly matched otherwise.

Coilers2021

I agree, Tampa does look a little older and slower. But in my mind the big difference is that they know how to win. Toronto doesn’t. And they’ve (TML) relied heavily on Giordano @ 39 years of age.

Ultimately it will be a good series but I just can’t see the Murray/Samsonov duo outplaying Vasilevsky.

who

That bad pass by Ceci was the mother of all bad passes. It was a terrible decision, followed by terrible execution, followed by a terrible result.
I would love to ask Ceci what he was thinking when he decided to make that pass? There wasn’t a Flyer anywhere near him and yet he decides to make a pass to his partner who has a forechecker bearing down on him. Even if he puts it on Brobergs tape, Broberg isn’t going to have time to do anything with it, other than maybe tip it out of the zone.

Victoria Oil

Even the Philly announcer said it was a bad pass at the time – before Tippett scored.

wkorkie

Other than the 3 dumb penalties, what a great road game by the Flyers.

Last edited 1 year ago by wkorkie
McSorley33

It was really a great road game for the Phantoms.

Phantoms PP looked ( aside from the Skinner glitch) utterly futile.

TheGreatBigMac

Kulak pulled a good move on Hart yesterday, perhaps he should be considered for the shoot out 🙂

Kert

Don’t like 29’s Brian Rolston impression?

Bruce McCurdy

Saw Patrick Kane take a slap shot in the shootout last night. Don’t know why anyone is talking about trading for that guy, he obviously doesn’t give AF. Bad body language too. /s

northerndancer

lol It followed Kane’s dying-second of OT, break away slapper that was ruled to be .1 second too late. The jubilation of the home town crowd, possibly witnessing the culmation of his great career in Chi town was brought crashing down by the NHL reviewing the play and ruling it too late!

Kert

Haha, I never said a Brian Rolston impression was a bad thing. Rolston scored, didn’t he?

Personally, I don’t mind 29 taking a shot. You gotta switch it up if you want to keep having success. Remember Sam Gagner when he first started doing shootouts? He made ~4 goalies look silly, then it stopped working. Regardless, I’m going to go out on the sturdist limb there is and claim 29 shouldn’t listen to my advice when choosing his shootout move. 😀

innercitysmytty

Exactly what I was thinking in real time when I saw that lol