Game 65 2022-23: Oilers at Sabres

by Lowetide
Tyler Bunz photo by Rob Ferguson

For some reason, I know not why, there has been plenty of discussion about the Oilers and goaltenders lately. Most of the conversations surround Jack Campbell, but Jesper Wallstedt got a mention and so did Stuart Skinner. It got me thinking about one of my favourite subjects: Drafting goaltenders!

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
  • March actual result: 2-1-0, 4 points in three games
  • February actual result: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
  • January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 34-22-8, 76 points in 64 games

It’s unusual to be heading into early March with the playoffs secure (barring some act of God), but the Oilers need to win some games in order to finish top three in the division. It’s a much better situation to be preparing for the Kings or Kraken than the Stars.

OILERS AT THE DRAFT (GOALIES)

Looking at these numbers, and not listing height/weight or scouting report, I think Ilya Konovalov’s performance in the KHL (world’s second best league at the time) shines like a diamond. Stuart Skinner, who is now the Oilers starter, has good numbers (No. 14 in the WHL among starters in his draft year is good) but you wouldn’t write home about it. Right?

One thing we can do when looking at the numbers during draft seasons is to see where the goalie is ranked among players at the same age. In the case of Skinner, he was No. 2 among draft-eligible goalies that season. The story of Skinner really begins, in my opinion, coming out of the pandemic. He looked like a lot of other goalies until 2020-21 with the Bakersfield Condors.

This brings me to one of baseball writer Bill James wonderful theories about pitchers. James wrote decades ago about ‘best bets’ and iirc he sided with the fireballers over the slop/location group. James said that when a finesse pitcher loses a little off his fastball, it doesn’t come in much quicker than the offspeed stuff, and batters aren’t fooled. Men with great fastballs don’t have that problem.

He added a tailpiece to the verbal, saying something like “any pitcher, no matter what they throw to the plate, has a good chance to see the majors if they can hang around long enough in the minors and figure out ways to get batters out” and it’s always stuck with me.

Skinner played and played and played during his junior and pro career leading up to 2022-23 and his rookie NHL season. By year, since 2014-15: 43, 48, 80, 84, 51, 44, 38, 53 and now 36 this season. That includes playoffs. Skinner has this in common with Devan Dubnyk, the third great goalie drafted out of the NHL by Edmonton (Andy Moog, Grant Fuhr). I think Skinner might be the fourth in that group.

His draft-year numbers didn’t indicate future success, while Ilya Konovalov’s sang it from the highest mountain with backing band and choir. Hang around long enough. It’s an interesting way to look at developing goalies. Now, what does that tell us about Olivier Rodrigue?

GOAL SCORING DEPTH

I keep reading about the Oilers having very little offense from the forwards beyond Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. While those four men are absolutely having impact seasons, there’s a nice group bubbling under.

For instance, did you know the Oilers currently boast eight forwards with 10 or more goals? It’s true, and some of them are young and this represents a career high. Warren Foegele (11 goals) may be on the way to a career high (currently 13), Ryan McLeod (10 goals) has already attained it and Klim Kostin (10 goals) passed his previous best in a quick hurry after his recall. Derek Ryan also has 10, with some work to do in order to reach and pass his best season (15 goals) in the NHL.

Beyond those names, Evander Kane (nine goals in 24 games) and Kailer Yamamoto (eight goals in 40 games) can score goals. Hell, Nick Bjugstadt is scoring at a goal-per-game pace! All kidding aside, offense from forwards isn’t a problem for these Oilers.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

10-2, TSN1260 and there’s much to discuss. The Oilers road trip lands the team in Buffalo to play the Sabres. No easy outs on the road trip and we’ll talk about an emerging team in New York state. We’ll also find time for Jays, NFL and more! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Crazy Pedestrian

Oilers 9 points up on the Preds, unlikely they win all 4 of their games in hand, so oiler’s playoff hopes are fairly secure for now. Problem right now, is that every team in front of them in the pacific keeps winning. They are now all on 3 or 4 game winning streaks, so oilers have actually lost ground.

Just gotta keep pushing and collecting those wins. The next two road games are the hardest two remaining games of the season (BOS, TML). Then it will be a heavy diet of Division teams (minus 3 games – OTT, DAL, COL).

Oilers are now 2nd in the league for Reg. Wins behind only the Behemoth that is Boston.

OriginalPouzar

I could see the Oilers finishing 2P, 3P, 1WC or 2WC – all of those spots are reasonable to suggest. Who the eff knows who they are going to play – could be Dallas, Vegas, Seattle, LAK.

At the end of the day, I Just hope they play 3 of those teams.

Jaxon

Who are the ‘Black Aces’ for the Oilers this year?
My guess in order:

Forwards (probably around 6 forwards)

  1. Holloway – unless he finds a way onto the roster sooner but they’re too damn close to the cap. I’m guessing he gets called up right after the NHL season, even if the Condors are in the playoffs.
  2. Benson – I think he’s earned #1 status even though his play seems to have taken a step back this year
  3. Griffith – top points but I’
  4. m not sure they like his overall game
  5. Lavoie – is one of the best goal scorers outside the NHL, especially at his age. 17 goals in the last 30 games! If he had started the season at this level and not been injured he would be leading the AHL in goals. We’ve seen him heat up for the playoffs before. I’d be tempted to give him a shot on the roster if an injury happens.
  6. Bailey – a big-bodied forward with some scoring touch and some connection with Nurse( they grew up not far from each other (Hamilton and Buffalo, their dads were both pro football players, and they played together for 36 games in the OHL with the Soo. He also played 82 NHL games.
  7. Bourgault – I’m sure they’d like to observe his habits with the big club
  8. Malone – may get the vet presence callup over Bourgault
  9. Hamblin – also has NHL experience
  10. Tullio – is a fast defensively responsible player, so that could go a long way to getting his foot in the door.
  11. Savoie – one of the least likely I would think.
  12. Philp would be a great story and he has proven to be a very mature player from what I’ve read

Defense (4 D)

  1. Niemelainen – one of the only ones to have played up with the big club this season
  2. Demers – vet presence for practice
  3. Dineen – recent pickup with 34 games of NHL experience
  4. Kemp – the next big hope on RD

Goalies (2 G)

  1. I think Pickard gets the call first, but they may bring up 2 goalies. He has better stats than Rodrigue and 116 NHL games under his belt.
  2. Rodrigue is up for the experience and to make it easier for practicing and having 6-on-6 scrimmages.

Thoughts?

Yukon Jerk

Pickard, Niemelainen, Holloway, Shore.
Maybe Demers & Lavoie

BornInAGretzkyJersey

You’d think it would be a blend of upcoming talent and the grizzled vets, as it has been in years past.

I figure something along the likes of (in no order of preference, excepting Holywood):

  • Holloway (LW/C)
  • Malone (LW/C)
  • Benson (LW)
  • Hamblin (C/RW)
  • Lavoie (LW/RW)
  • Bourgault (C/RW)
  • Demers (LD/RD)
  • Niemelainen (LD)
  • Pickard (G)

That’s a fairly decent group, considering positional versatility, experience, skill set, and organizational fit. There’s enough cover to spell off roster players with bumps and bruises to sit out a skate/practice and be in the mix for a call up if need be.

Obviously the younger guys like XB, RL, and TB are in tough to actually get the call, but if they’re in the room then they have an opportunity to earn a chance.

EDIT: I should add that if memory serves, Rodrigue was up last year so he’s got a chance as a darkhorse candidate to be up on the taxi squad again. Perhaps to really enable the goalies to get some rest between games. I think the organization is higher on him than many.

Last edited 1 year ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
OriginalPouzar

To be honest, I’d have Philp higher on that list. I’d put Tulio higher as well but he’s got to get much stronger before he’s ready for NHL hockey. He’s probably ahead of Bourgault (who’d be on the team but behind Tulio for ice time as of now). Bailey may be ahead of both Benson and Griffith.

Jaxon

If they only take 6 forwards, then we stop after Philp? Most likely only 3 or 4 forwards are needed in case of injury, the rest are to fill out practices, keep things professional, and high-paced, be ‘good in the room’, and get some experience for top prospects about what NHL and playoff hockey are like. In that case, does Malone get in as a true pro and leader? Do Bourgault, and Tullio get in as prospects for exposure to the life of NHL playoffs? You’ve watched a lot of AHL, how does Griffith look defensively? Will they not bring him up because they don’t trust that side of his game? Do Bailey and Malone make it just because of the physicality they can bring?

So something more like this?

  1. Holloway
  2. Bailey
  3. Benson
  4. Griffith
  5. Lavoie
  6. Philp

________possible cutoff of 6 forwards (4D, 2G for 12 total, or is that more than usual?)

  1. Tullio
  2. Bourgault
  3. Malone
  4. Hamblin
  5. Savoie

Anyhow, it’s a mostly unimportant subject but kind of fun to speculate about. So many competing philosophies to ponder.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

The Sabres are going to be a great team.

Power + Dahlin is scary good.

AsiaOil

Skinner is the starter – full stop – and the schedule will let us ride him pretty easily. I don’t start Campbell again until the SEA game on the 18th at the earliest, the ARZ game on the 22nd at the latest. But I would throw Campbell in pretty quickly if it looks like Stu is having an off-night. Always been a fan and Stu is easily the best goalie we’ve drafted since Dubnyk. He’s giving me a Binnington vibe and don’t forget how he carried Swift Current on his back all the way to the Memorial Cup. All we need to good goaltending to win and he’s got the potential to provide that.

Last edited 1 year ago by AsiaOil
Gerta Rauss

Damnit- Flames spit the bit on a 4-2 lead and Dallas ties it, but then score the winner with 7 seconds remaining to win in reg

Van up 2-1 over Nashville thru 1 period
No score in LA thru 1 period

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Ice Time

McD – 19:58
Leon – 17:40
Nuge – 17:38
Hyman -17:36
Nurse – 21:16
Ekholm – 22:03
Ceci – 22:43

More of this please.

Can’t wait to get Kane back.

Hahahahah the Flames blow their 12 or 13, 3rd period lead hahahahahaha.

Sierra

Solid game by the Oilers. Well played by the top guys, bottom 6 and the D.

OriginalPouzar

A couple of flames points here are there is necessary. Can’t have them fall to the bottom 11 with a chance at Bedard. Finishing 12th-16th is where they need to be.

Diablo

Yep they need to stay just close enough to the playoffs that their management will convince themselves that they are just a few more (expensive) pieces away from being contenders, followed by a drunken spending spree in the summer …. then years of mediocracy to come.

Tarkus

years of mediocracy to come.

Not sure whether you were trying to say “mediocrity” instead, but I quite enjoyed your version of it.

Last edited 1 year ago by Tarkus
Diablo

Lol – my kid was trying to climb my head when I typed that out.

Spartacus

A mediocracy… where ice time is doled out based on one’s level of mediocrity.

Genjutsu

They’re too good a team for that I’d think.

Not good enough to make the playoffs, though.

I hope they just miss the playoffs forever

dangilitis

3-2 on the Bos-Tor-Wpg-Wpg-Buf-Bos-Tor slog.
And they were the better team in the 2 games they lost.
That’s really encouraging.

JimmyV1965

Big win. Skinner was great. Sabres are legit good. Big, fast, skilled. So much better than the Jets.

pixel-bender

This is what happens when you receive NHL goaltending. Skinner didn’t have to stand on his head, he didn’t have to steal the game — he just had to stop some high-quality scoring chances to get the win.

Ranford.85

Skinner was solid tonight and made some big saves at big times.
Apart from McDavid’s unbeliebveable sseason, Stu’s emergence is top 3 (with Nuge’s season) for my favorite parts of this year.
Incredible and I hope he has a long successful career for the Oilers.

McSorley33

Skinner just so strong in net.

Have to call it here- Devin Shore has been pretty key to this 4th line success.

Hat tip as well to Foggy whose ruthless forechecking is causing havoc lately.

Kostin with yet another key screen net front.

Pinch me. I think our bottom 6 are doing more than just holding their own.

Sub zero temps being recorded in hell?

JOFA

Goaltending! What a difference!

The Oilers are still playing way too loose defensively. They have to get things figured out before the playoffs.

JJS

Agreed. If there was a ‘key’ in hockey (akin to basketball), Buffalo skated through it at will tonight. Every time they set up in our zone they were able to pass and skate in space.

Whereas the Oil were kept to the outside of the o-zone for the most part (unless on the rush).

Looked like vastly different systems.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’m not sure we’re seeing the same thing.

Don’t get me wrong, BUF had their chances. But I would stop short of saying they reigned with impunity in our slot compared to our chances.

https://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20222023&game=21006&view=limited#lbhm5v5

Last edited 1 year ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
cowboy bill

Oilers only needed 3 goals to win.

Munny 2.0

A double eagle is an albatross. What’s a double unicorn called? A pegasus?

When Kane is back, Bigstad will be re-shuffled to 4C. They could theoretically have 4 lines that can score.

No more, when are 97 and 29 coming out again? I’m excited to see the bottom 6 take their shifts.

Reja

Bjugstad is a giant in Oilers gear I never realized how big he is until now.

Diablo

Terrific pickup – he looks just fine at 3C.

When Kane gets back, Bjug-stud can stay right where he is in the lineup. Foegele can drop down to make way for Kane. RNH should stay with the big guns on the top two lines. The forward depth is (barring any serious injuries) looking just fine.

Tarkus

8th consecutive game in which either McDavid or Draisaitl have scored at least twice.

jp

Rondo

March 6, 2023 7:39 pm

If Oilers can’t beat Buffalo. How will they do in the playoffs. It’s not like they don’t need these points and it’s not a back to back.

Geez, you could wait for them to, you know, not beat Buffalo, right?

Scungilli Slushy

Legitimate concern given the game as I see it

Sabres are not a top team. As the Oilers were for a long time, a talented team that is young and vulnerable. A mature team as the Oilers are now should handle that handily

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

No credit to a Buffalo team in the thick of a playoff hunt after a record 12 seasons outside the playoffs?

Tough crowd, tough crowd.

Side

I think every game the Oilers win that’s not an 8-1 beat down, there are always comments of “Oilers need to tighten it up”

“Oilers are lucky to get out of that one with a win”

“Oilers better be prepared for the next game”

And the Oilers are in a weird position where they shouldn’t lose to ANY team of ANY caliber.

They lose to a team lower in the standings “Oilers can’t lose to inferior teams. That doesn’t happen to contending teams”

They lose to a team higher in the standings “Oilers have to figure out how to beat talented teams if they want to be a contender”

Faustkarz

one of those games you won’t remember two weeks from now

give me a few more of those before the end of the season

jm363561

Enjoyed the game – gritty win. Skinner great, BJug 10-0 FW-FL.

Paulie

Bjugstad 10-0 on FOs

Crazy Pedestrian

Wow. When was the last time any oiler went 100% in that many faceoffs???

Kert

Forget one game, Adam Larsson was 100% for his entire Oiler career!

jp

I feel like this is a good time to appreciate the evolution of the Oilers bottom 6 forwards.

In Holland’s first couple of years we had lots and lots of Khaira, Sheahan, Archibald, Haas, Nygard, P. Russell, Granlund, Ennis.

This. I like it better.

David

I will always be convinced we had something in Nygard, he just couldn’t stay healthy.

jp

I liked him too. I still like this better.

Reja

Speed usually keeps you in the N.H.L even if you have bad hands, injuries will kill a career unless you have pedigree.

rich tm

Haha – my son pronounces it “turrible” too (dad – that’s just turrible).

kgo

I felt that way about Hass.. reminded me of Sobotka lite

Ranford.85

If you ask me, Holland and his staff deserve some credit.

winchester

Jets lose, so sad

David

I knew Big Save Dave wasn’t going to stop that one.

khildahl

Best part was his petulant failed attempt to break his stick over his knee as he skated off the ice afterward.

winchester

Sharks have been on a long decline since….Kassian ran them out of the rink

Reja

He’s going to have a big ass bruise on his thigh. Give him credit the man does have passion.

kgo

Teams don’t tank in this NHL, managers try to but players don’t…

Last edited 1 year ago by kgo
OriginalPouzar

I believe that was the sixth goal Hyman has scored this season that was called back….

Ranford.85

Honestly, I had changed the channel to the Flamers game (wife) and didn’t see it had been called off! Haha what a season

Faustkarz

Good bounceback game

Oilers bit fortunate to get a W in regulation, BUF looked good

Can only imagine how much more confidence players have with skinner in net, what a game by him

winchester

So true. I didn’t like the Oilers game much tonight, not their best game. But get some stops and they can still get the win. What a difference.

Faustkarz

can’t win every game 5-2; but win nonetheless

both teams sort of seemed like their thoughts were on their next game BOS and NYI, but might just be conjecture on my behalf

Funnybird

Awesome effort by Skinner to help calm our collective goaltending angst!

Diablo

Skinner was awesome tonight … kept the team in the game, and looked completely calm out there. Campbell is going to be a very expensive backup for the rest of the season.

Elgin R

And next year

cowboy bill

Nice game.

OriginalPouzar

Bank those points.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Hyman. Man.

OriginalPouzar

Oilers need the TO here.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Ekholm played an attacking Dhalin like a fiddle.

Admiral Ackbar

Janmark seriously bailed out by Skinner. Brutal double team at his own blue line.

Imagine this game with Soup…

Last edited 1 year ago by Admiral Ackbar
Kert

Yah that was surprising, usually Janmark is one of the guys doing the smart thing.

winchester

Kind funny. Commercial has two dimwits jumping through an unmarked hole in the ice – then leaving. Now we see a guy on skates heading out across the lake. Can’t wait to see if he finds the hole or not. Lol

Prairie_Sentinel

Better be giving S.Skinner some love tonight…..he’s been good.

Last edited 1 year ago by Prairie_Sentinel
winchester

Absolutely

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Strong defensive sequence by Nurse, neutralizes Cozens at the end. Followed up by to stellar glove saves by Skinner.

Munny 2.0

Great all-ice press for a couple of shifts then Foggy and Hyman fail to capitalize on an odd man break

OriginalPouzar

It eery that seeing number 19 out there is proving me calm……

winchester

Oilers having hard time making a pass, any pass.

oilers d backing in. Buffalo standing up and winning puck battles. Turn the puck around quickly.

OriginalPouzar

Oilers creating even more than they are giving up though.

They are donating the third across the numbers.

Halfwise

Weren’t you just grinding someone for an Auto-Corrupt typo a few comments ago?

OriginalPouzar

THAT is your contribution to today’s blog?

Waiting all day for it?

Halfwise

Yep!

Usually DSF gets the nudge but tonight you earned it.

winchester

Buffalo might be only team better than Oil at working puck around the zone. Maybe

Admiral Ackbar

Boy they give up chances to possession teams….

Munny 2.0

Spy v Spy and Spy won again

Paulie

Skinner rebound control has improved from earlier in the year.

Diablo

You’d still like to see him swallow those rebounds up more, but he’s really learned to direct the rebounds into the corners with authority.

OriginalPouzar

When did Jeff Skinner get good again?

Ek got a small piece of that cross-ice to slow it down which probably saved a goal

Diablo

Jeff Skinner was never bad. He’s an incredible skater, with terrific shot. Undersized but tremendous talent. Under Granato, he’s back to being a productive player these past two years.

The coach that buried him and nearly ruined his career on that other hand was completely in over his head, yet somehow he was the belle of the this blog’s eye for a long time, all because he got fired over Skype (turns out MacTavish was ahead of his time actually), and wrote a motivational book. Same coach nearly cratered Dahlin’s career before it started, and left South Hampton FC in shambles.

Turns out there’s more to being a coach in the NHL than just being a world class BS’er.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Foegele is playing good hockey right now. High event at times (CBJ) but it’s still his best stretch as an Oiler.

If he clicks Yamamoto will score 40. So many glorious chances and so few goals. I think he’ll click soon.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Oh and McDavid is going where very few have gone before.

He’s so damn good

Scungilli Slushy

Just like JP

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Mmmm no most definitely not.

Yamamoto creates chances. Turnovers, tips, cycles, breaks. I had him tagged with 4 high danger and two medium chances tonight. He had two goals the other day. That sort of offensive took JP three weeks or months to work up to.

I think Yamo is going to end up streaky like Hyman. He’ll score in bunches. As long as he’s creating chances you don’t worry. It’s frustrating now but it will regress upwards with time. He’ll be a 60 point guy if he can stay healthy.

Reja

Just about Yamo nice try you’ll get it next time.

Admiral Ackbar

He’s often just out of position right there…

Last edited 1 year ago by Admiral Ackbar
Munny 2.0

Yams could’ve stuck the dagger in there

AMD

If Oilers can’t beat Buffalo. How will they do in the playoffs. It’s not like they don’t need these points and it’s not a back to back.

cowboy bill

Sabres are a good young club.

Reja

Wow that’s a Mike Bossy quick release gets the Goalie moving laterally than a shot on the ice and through the legs.

DevilsLettuce

Going for 70

Munny 2.0

what a play by all three, Ek, Foggy, and McDavid

OriginalPouzar

Oh, Yamo….

McSorley33

Been playing well….but some mini put tap ins have been missed along the way here