For some reason, I know not why, there has been plenty of discussion about the Oilers and goaltenders lately. Most of the conversations surround Jack Campbell, but Jesper Wallstedt got a mention and so did Stuart Skinner. It got me thinking about one of my favourite subjects: Drafting goaltenders!
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers finally commit to Evan Bouchard. How much will it cost?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect Tyler Tullio is outplaying the high picks
- DNB: Why more vintage Kailer Yamamoto outings could solve Oilers’ right wing woes
- DNB: Why the playoff lineup should be even better than last year
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers spring signing season preview
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto and the balance between value contract and injury risk
- DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
- DNB: Oilers trading Jesse Puljujarvi was an unavoidable and necessary solution
- Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
- DNB: Connor McDavid records his first career 50-goal season
- DNB: Inside Brad Holland’s scouting process
- DNB: Oilers captain Connor McDavid surpasses 800 career points
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ choice of Philip Broberg at the 2019 NHL Draft
- DNB: The Ben Stelter Fund is a legacy his family, Connor McDavid and the Oilers will proudly carry
- Lowetide: Will Oilers prospect Phil Kemp have an NHL career?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
- March actual result: 2-1-0, 4 points in three games
- February actual result: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 34-22-8, 76 points in 64 games
It’s unusual to be heading into early March with the playoffs secure (barring some act of God), but the Oilers need to win some games in order to finish top three in the division. It’s a much better situation to be preparing for the Kings or Kraken than the Stars.
OILERS AT THE DRAFT (GOALIES)
Looking at these numbers, and not listing height/weight or scouting report, I think Ilya Konovalov’s performance in the KHL (world’s second best league at the time) shines like a diamond. Stuart Skinner, who is now the Oilers starter, has good numbers (No. 14 in the WHL among starters in his draft year is good) but you wouldn’t write home about it. Right?
One thing we can do when looking at the numbers during draft seasons is to see where the goalie is ranked among players at the same age. In the case of Skinner, he was No. 2 among draft-eligible goalies that season. The story of Skinner really begins, in my opinion, coming out of the pandemic. He looked like a lot of other goalies until 2020-21 with the Bakersfield Condors.
This brings me to one of baseball writer Bill James wonderful theories about pitchers. James wrote decades ago about ‘best bets’ and iirc he sided with the fireballers over the slop/location group. James said that when a finesse pitcher loses a little off his fastball, it doesn’t come in much quicker than the offspeed stuff, and batters aren’t fooled. Men with great fastballs don’t have that problem.
He added a tailpiece to the verbal, saying something like “any pitcher, no matter what they throw to the plate, has a good chance to see the majors if they can hang around long enough in the minors and figure out ways to get batters out” and it’s always stuck with me.
Skinner played and played and played during his junior and pro career leading up to 2022-23 and his rookie NHL season. By year, since 2014-15: 43, 48, 80, 84, 51, 44, 38, 53 and now 36 this season. That includes playoffs. Skinner has this in common with Devan Dubnyk, the third great goalie drafted out of the NHL by Edmonton (Andy Moog, Grant Fuhr). I think Skinner might be the fourth in that group.
His draft-year numbers didn’t indicate future success, while Ilya Konovalov’s sang it from the highest mountain with backing band and choir. Hang around long enough. It’s an interesting way to look at developing goalies. Now, what does that tell us about Olivier Rodrigue?
GOAL SCORING DEPTH
I keep reading about the Oilers having very little offense from the forwards beyond Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. While those four men are absolutely having impact seasons, there’s a nice group bubbling under.
For instance, did you know the Oilers currently boast eight forwards with 10 or more goals? It’s true, and some of them are young and this represents a career high. Warren Foegele (11 goals) may be on the way to a career high (currently 13), Ryan McLeod (10 goals) has already attained it and Klim Kostin (10 goals) passed his previous best in a quick hurry after his recall. Derek Ryan also has 10, with some work to do in order to reach and pass his best season (15 goals) in the NHL.
Beyond those names, Evander Kane (nine goals in 24 games) and Kailer Yamamoto (eight goals in 40 games) can score goals. Hell, Nick Bjugstadt is scoring at a goal-per-game pace! All kidding aside, offense from forwards isn’t a problem for these Oilers.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
10-2, TSN1260 and there’s much to discuss. The Oilers road trip lands the team in Buffalo to play the Sabres. No easy outs on the road trip and we’ll talk about an emerging team in New York state. We’ll also find time for Jays, NFL and more! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Oilers 9 points up on the Preds, unlikely they win all 4 of their games in hand, so oiler’s playoff hopes are fairly secure for now. Problem right now, is that every team in front of them in the pacific keeps winning. They are now all on 3 or 4 game winning streaks, so oilers have actually lost ground.
Just gotta keep pushing and collecting those wins. The next two road games are the hardest two remaining games of the season (BOS, TML). Then it will be a heavy diet of Division teams (minus 3 games – OTT, DAL, COL).
Oilers are now 2nd in the league for Reg. Wins behind only the Behemoth that is Boston.
I could see the Oilers finishing 2P, 3P, 1WC or 2WC – all of those spots are reasonable to suggest. Who the eff knows who they are going to play – could be Dallas, Vegas, Seattle, LAK.
At the end of the day, I Just hope they play 3 of those teams.
Who are the ‘Black Aces’ for the Oilers this year?
My guess in order:
Forwards (probably around 6 forwards)
Defense (4 D)
Goalies (2 G)
Thoughts?
Pickard, Niemelainen, Holloway, Shore.
Maybe Demers & Lavoie
You’d think it would be a blend of upcoming talent and the grizzled vets, as it has been in years past.
I figure something along the likes of (in no order of preference, excepting Holywood):
That’s a fairly decent group, considering positional versatility, experience, skill set, and organizational fit. There’s enough cover to spell off roster players with bumps and bruises to sit out a skate/practice and be in the mix for a call up if need be.
Obviously the younger guys like XB, RL, and TB are in tough to actually get the call, but if they’re in the room then they have an opportunity to earn a chance.
EDIT: I should add that if memory serves, Rodrigue was up last year so he’s got a chance as a darkhorse candidate to be up on the taxi squad again. Perhaps to really enable the goalies to get some rest between games. I think the organization is higher on him than many.
To be honest, I’d have Philp higher on that list. I’d put Tulio higher as well but he’s got to get much stronger before he’s ready for NHL hockey. He’s probably ahead of Bourgault (who’d be on the team but behind Tulio for ice time as of now). Bailey may be ahead of both Benson and Griffith.
If they only take 6 forwards, then we stop after Philp? Most likely only 3 or 4 forwards are needed in case of injury, the rest are to fill out practices, keep things professional, and high-paced, be ‘good in the room’, and get some experience for top prospects about what NHL and playoff hockey are like. In that case, does Malone get in as a true pro and leader? Do Bourgault, and Tullio get in as prospects for exposure to the life of NHL playoffs? You’ve watched a lot of AHL, how does Griffith look defensively? Will they not bring him up because they don’t trust that side of his game? Do Bailey and Malone make it just because of the physicality they can bring?
So something more like this?
________possible cutoff of 6 forwards (4D, 2G for 12 total, or is that more than usual?)
Anyhow, it’s a mostly unimportant subject but kind of fun to speculate about. So many competing philosophies to ponder.
The Sabres are going to be a great team.
Power + Dahlin is scary good.
Skinner is the starter – full stop – and the schedule will let us ride him pretty easily. I don’t start Campbell again until the SEA game on the 18th at the earliest, the ARZ game on the 22nd at the latest. But I would throw Campbell in pretty quickly if it looks like Stu is having an off-night. Always been a fan and Stu is easily the best goalie we’ve drafted since Dubnyk. He’s giving me a Binnington vibe and don’t forget how he carried Swift Current on his back all the way to the Memorial Cup. All we need to good goaltending to win and he’s got the potential to provide that.
Damnit- Flames spit the bit on a 4-2 lead and Dallas ties it, but then score the winner with 7 seconds remaining to win in reg
Van up 2-1 over Nashville thru 1 period
No score in LA thru 1 period
Ice Time
McD – 19:58
Leon – 17:40
Nuge – 17:38
Hyman -17:36
Nurse – 21:16
Ekholm – 22:03
Ceci – 22:43
More of this please.
Can’t wait to get Kane back.
Hahahahah the Flames blow their 12 or 13, 3rd period lead hahahahahaha.
Solid game by the Oilers. Well played by the top guys, bottom 6 and the D.
A couple of flames points here are there is necessary. Can’t have them fall to the bottom 11 with a chance at Bedard. Finishing 12th-16th is where they need to be.
Yep they need to stay just close enough to the playoffs that their management will convince themselves that they are just a few more (expensive) pieces away from being contenders, followed by a drunken spending spree in the summer …. then years of mediocracy to come.
Not sure whether you were trying to say “mediocrity” instead, but I quite enjoyed your version of it.
Lol – my kid was trying to climb my head when I typed that out.
A mediocracy… where ice time is doled out based on one’s level of mediocrity.
They’re too good a team for that I’d think.
Not good enough to make the playoffs, though.
I hope they just miss the playoffs forever
3-2 on the Bos-Tor-Wpg-Wpg-Buf-Bos-Tor slog.
And they were the better team in the 2 games they lost.
That’s really encouraging.
Big win. Skinner was great. Sabres are legit good. Big, fast, skilled. So much better than the Jets.
This is what happens when you receive NHL goaltending. Skinner didn’t have to stand on his head, he didn’t have to steal the game — he just had to stop some high-quality scoring chances to get the win.
Skinner was solid tonight and made some big saves at big times.
Apart from McDavid’s unbeliebveable sseason, Stu’s emergence is top 3 (with Nuge’s season) for my favorite parts of this year.
Incredible and I hope he has a long successful career for the Oilers.
Skinner just so strong in net.
Have to call it here- Devin Shore has been pretty key to this 4th line success.
Hat tip as well to Foggy whose ruthless forechecking is causing havoc lately.
Kostin with yet another key screen net front.
Pinch me. I think our bottom 6 are doing more than just holding their own.
Sub zero temps being recorded in hell?
Goaltending! What a difference!
The Oilers are still playing way too loose defensively. They have to get things figured out before the playoffs.
Agreed. If there was a ‘key’ in hockey (akin to basketball), Buffalo skated through it at will tonight. Every time they set up in our zone they were able to pass and skate in space.
Whereas the Oil were kept to the outside of the o-zone for the most part (unless on the rush).
Looked like vastly different systems.
I’m not sure we’re seeing the same thing.
Don’t get me wrong, BUF had their chances. But I would stop short of saying they reigned with impunity in our slot compared to our chances.
https://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20222023&game=21006&view=limited#lbhm5v5
Oilers only needed 3 goals to win.
A double eagle is an albatross. What’s a double unicorn called? A pegasus?
When Kane is back, Bigstad will be re-shuffled to 4C. They could theoretically have 4 lines that can score.
No more, when are 97 and 29 coming out again? I’m excited to see the bottom 6 take their shifts.
Bjugstad is a giant in Oilers gear I never realized how big he is until now.
Terrific pickup – he looks just fine at 3C.
When Kane gets back, Bjug-stud can stay right where he is in the lineup. Foegele can drop down to make way for Kane. RNH should stay with the big guns on the top two lines. The forward depth is (barring any serious injuries) looking just fine.
8th consecutive game in which either McDavid or Draisaitl have scored at least twice.
Geez, you could wait for them to, you know, not beat Buffalo, right?
Legitimate concern given the game as I see it
Sabres are not a top team. As the Oilers were for a long time, a talented team that is young and vulnerable. A mature team as the Oilers are now should handle that handily
No credit to a Buffalo team in the thick of a playoff hunt after a record 12 seasons outside the playoffs?
Tough crowd, tough crowd.
I think every game the Oilers win that’s not an 8-1 beat down, there are always comments of “Oilers need to tighten it up”
“Oilers are lucky to get out of that one with a win”
“Oilers better be prepared for the next game”
And the Oilers are in a weird position where they shouldn’t lose to ANY team of ANY caliber.
They lose to a team lower in the standings “Oilers can’t lose to inferior teams. That doesn’t happen to contending teams”
They lose to a team higher in the standings “Oilers have to figure out how to beat talented teams if they want to be a contender”
one of those games you won’t remember two weeks from now
give me a few more of those before the end of the season
Enjoyed the game – gritty win. Skinner great, BJug 10-0 FW-FL.
Bjugstad 10-0 on FOs
Wow. When was the last time any oiler went 100% in that many faceoffs???
Forget one game, Adam Larsson was 100% for his entire Oiler career!
I feel like this is a good time to appreciate the evolution of the Oilers bottom 6 forwards.
In Holland’s first couple of years we had lots and lots of Khaira, Sheahan, Archibald, Haas, Nygard, P. Russell, Granlund, Ennis.
This. I like it better.
I will always be convinced we had something in Nygard, he just couldn’t stay healthy.
He also had turrible puck luck around the net. I liked him.
I liked him too. I still like this better.
Speed usually keeps you in the N.H.L even if you have bad hands, injuries will kill a career unless you have pedigree.
Haha – my son pronounces it “turrible” too (dad – that’s just turrible).
I felt that way about Hass.. reminded me of Sobotka lite
If you ask me, Holland and his staff deserve some credit.
Jets lose, so sad
I knew Big Save Dave wasn’t going to stop that one.
Best part was his petulant failed attempt to break his stick over his knee as he skated off the ice afterward.
Sharks have been on a long decline since….Kassian ran them out of the rink
He’s going to have a big ass bruise on his thigh. Give him credit the man does have passion.
Teams don’t tank in this NHL, managers try to but players don’t…
I believe that was the sixth goal Hyman has scored this season that was called back….
Honestly, I had changed the channel to the Flamers game (wife) and didn’t see it had been called off! Haha what a season
Good bounceback game
Oilers bit fortunate to get a W in regulation, BUF looked good
Can only imagine how much more confidence players have with skinner in net, what a game by him
So true. I didn’t like the Oilers game much tonight, not their best game. But get some stops and they can still get the win. What a difference.
can’t win every game 5-2; but win nonetheless
both teams sort of seemed like their thoughts were on their next game BOS and NYI, but might just be conjecture on my behalf
Awesome effort by Skinner to help calm our collective goaltending angst!
Skinner was awesome tonight … kept the team in the game, and looked completely calm out there. Campbell is going to be a very expensive backup for the rest of the season.
And next year
Nice game.
Bank those points.
Hyman. Man.
Oilers need the TO here.
Ekholm played an attacking Dhalin like a fiddle.
Janmark seriously bailed out by Skinner. Brutal double team at his own blue line.
Imagine this game with Soup…
Yah that was surprising, usually Janmark is one of the guys doing the smart thing.
Kind funny. Commercial has two dimwits jumping through an unmarked hole in the ice – then leaving. Now we see a guy on skates heading out across the lake. Can’t wait to see if he finds the hole or not. Lol
Better be giving S.Skinner some love tonight…..he’s been good.
Absolutely
Strong defensive sequence by Nurse, neutralizes Cozens at the end. Followed up by to stellar glove saves by Skinner.
Great all-ice press for a couple of shifts then Foggy and Hyman fail to capitalize on an odd man break
It eery that seeing number 19 out there is proving me calm……
Oilers having hard time making a pass, any pass.
oilers d backing in. Buffalo standing up and winning puck battles. Turn the puck around quickly.
Oilers creating even more than they are giving up though.
They are donating the third across the numbers.
Weren’t you just grinding someone for an Auto-Corrupt typo a few comments ago?
THAT is your contribution to today’s blog?
Waiting all day for it?
Yep!
Usually DSF gets the nudge but tonight you earned it.
Buffalo might be only team better than Oil at working puck around the zone. Maybe
Boy they give up chances to possession teams….
Spy v Spy and Spy won again
Skinner rebound control has improved from earlier in the year.
You’d still like to see him swallow those rebounds up more, but he’s really learned to direct the rebounds into the corners with authority.
When did Jeff Skinner get good again?
Ek got a small piece of that cross-ice to slow it down which probably saved a goal
Jeff Skinner was never bad. He’s an incredible skater, with terrific shot. Undersized but tremendous talent. Under Granato, he’s back to being a productive player these past two years.
The coach that buried him and nearly ruined his career on that other hand was completely in over his head, yet somehow he was the belle of the this blog’s eye for a long time, all because he got fired over Skype (turns out MacTavish was ahead of his time actually), and wrote a motivational book. Same coach nearly cratered Dahlin’s career before it started, and left South Hampton FC in shambles.
Turns out there’s more to being a coach in the NHL than just being a world class BS’er.
Foegele is playing good hockey right now. High event at times (CBJ) but it’s still his best stretch as an Oiler.
If he clicks Yamamoto will score 40. So many glorious chances and so few goals. I think he’ll click soon.
Oh and McDavid is going where very few have gone before.
He’s so damn good
Just like JP
Mmmm no most definitely not.
Yamamoto creates chances. Turnovers, tips, cycles, breaks. I had him tagged with 4 high danger and two medium chances tonight. He had two goals the other day. That sort of offensive took JP three weeks or months to work up to.
I think Yamo is going to end up streaky like Hyman. He’ll score in bunches. As long as he’s creating chances you don’t worry. It’s frustrating now but it will regress upwards with time. He’ll be a 60 point guy if he can stay healthy.
Just about Yamo nice try you’ll get it next time.
He’s often just out of position right there…
Yams could’ve stuck the dagger in there
If Oilers can’t beat Buffalo. How will they do in the playoffs. It’s not like they don’t need these points and it’s not a back to back.
Sabres are a good young club.
Wow that’s a Mike Bossy quick release gets the Goalie moving laterally than a shot on the ice and through the legs.
Going for 70
what a play by all three, Ek, Foggy, and McDavid
Oh, Yamo….
Been playing well….but some mini put tap ins have been missed along the way here