Game 68 2022-23: Senators at Oilers

by Lowetide

This blog uses five-on-five numbers heavily, because it’s the biggest game state and also a level playing field. I like to wait three years before trusting a player’s numbers. Bill James called it an established level of ability. Some players have seasons that vary wildly and you’re never sure if they’re going to turn into Jari Kurri or Raimo Summanen. What is the established level of ability for Edmonton’s young forwards?

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
  • March actual result: 4-2-0, 8 points in six games
  • February actual result: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
  • January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 36-23-8, 80 points in 67 games

The games against Arizona (two) and San Jose (one) should result in three victories. Added to the four victories so far this month, that gets the Oilers to seven for March. I projected a 9-6-0 record. Imminently doable, tonight’s game against Ottawa is a winnable one. Five wins in seven games would be impressive.

The top four teams in the Pacific Division have all played in 67 games. That means a 15-game sprint to the finish, with Vegas (88 points), Los Angeles (85) and Seattle (81) all ahead of Edmonton (80). The schedule turns here a little for the Oilers, this is going to be fun watching this play out.

ESTABLISHED LEVEL OF ABILITY, FIVE-ON-FIVE (FORWARDS)

There’s no need to do this exercise for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman or Evander Kane. It’s not especially important to include Derek Ryan or Mattias Janmark. Ideally, you’d have 245 games for each player we’re discussing but that’s not the case. Here’ are the most productive youngsters in five-on-five points and goal share (career).

  • Warren Foegele 334 games, 1.58 pts-60, 48.3 percent goal share
  • Kailer Yamamoto 229 games. 1.55 pts-60. 53.5 percent goal share
  • Ryan McLeod. 135 games. 1.43 pts-60. 47.7 percent goal share
  • Klim Kostin 88 games. 1.90 pts-60. 54.9 percent goal share
  • Dylan Holloway 51 games, 1.20 pts-60. 50 percent goal share
  • Tyler Benson 38 games. 0.56 pts-60. 34.8 percent goal share

All of the numbers you see are five-on-five. Now, let’s say you are the general manager of the brand new NHL franchise (we’ll call them the Quebec Les Lions de’hiver) and you get to choose any of these men in the expansion draft. Who would you choose?

For me, Kailer Yamamoto is already making reasonable coin and injuries are a worry, but he’s productive on a complementary skill line. That has value. Warren Foegele is a middle six winger also making a good dollar, so I personally would slide him behind Yamamoto on my list.

After that, I have the emerging Klim Kostin. He looked like so many other mediocre prospects upon arrival in Edmonton, but Ken Holland may have caught lightning in a bottle. I’d have to consider him and it would depend on how many sure things are available from other rosters. Let’s set him aside, and return in a minute.

Dylan Holloway is the most dynamic in the group, I’m not sure he’s going to score enough to play in the top-six but even third line he would be a going concern for opponents. He goes in the pile with Yamamoto and Kostin for final consideration. Tyler Benson would be a player I would acquire, but as an unrestricted free agent when Edmonton walks him.

So, we’re left with Yamamoto (makes money, injuries a concern, has scored 20 goals in the NHL), Kostin (rugged, emerging, not as expensive yet) or Holloway (highest ceiling, farthest from delivering). What is your decision? Me, I shoot the moon with Holloway.

Now, what about Ryan McLeod? He is 23 years old, 6.02, 207 and per 82 games in the NHL is posting 12-14-26. This season, his five-on-five pts-60 is 1.76 (only Kostin has a higher number among all the young dudes) and he owns a 49 percent goal share. If I’m an expansion team, considering his contract and the fact he might sign a multi-year deal that brings value, McLeod might be the target. His offense comes at five-on-five, so there’s no empty calories. He is No. 3 among forwards in PK minutes and his skating is exceptional.

McLeod is exactly the kind of player an expansion team grabs, places in a more prominent spot on the roster, and watches him blossom. McLeod might be the right guy to invest in on this list, despite recent events. Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn have new player cards out, you should have a look at McLeod.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

We’ll tee up the Oilers-Senators, look at Canada’s performance against USA at the World Baseball Classic (briefly!) and talk NFL free agency. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Hemskyish

Hello fellow Lowetiders, I can’t figure this out. With schedule strength, if the Oilers are somehow able to go 10-4 to finish. Any chance to win the pacific?

Durag

Not much of one. Vegas would then have to go 6-7-1 to stay clear of us.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Playing Jack in late February messed up the Conference and Division crown odds for the team.

Its a pure shame but it is what it is.

Munny 2.0

Oh yeah, I forgot…

That powerplay goal by Nuge was a one-timer. A short one albeit but, a one-timer nonetheless. I believe that’s a first for The Nuge who typically needs to stop the puck to shoot the puck. I’ve never seen him swing through a puck before, and he doesn’t take a lot of slap shots in the first place.

It’s the one thing he doesn’t really have in his arsenal. Now that he’s done it in a game, can he repeat it? Add that weapon to an already historic powerplay…

MushedPeas

Did it twice. Second one hit iron.

Side

I didn’t watch the Flames game but I find their TOI interesting:

Backlund: 19:56
Lindholm: 19:47
Toffoli: 18:57
Bread Guy: 18:52
Coleman: 16:39
Pelletier: 16:04
Huberdeau: 15:32
Dube: 14:38
Kadri: 14:17
Lewis: 11:17
Lucic: 11:07

I can’t imagine having your newly acquired $7mx7 and soon to be $10.5mx8 forwards play so little in a game against an allegedly much weaker team with the season on the line, is making anyone happy.

And people ragged on Holland for the contracts he gave Hyman and Nuge.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

I was one of the few posters who called all of Treliving’s move crap the second they were made. Welp sucks to suck Calgary, sucks to suck. Watching Dom’s model spit them out as the 2nd best team in the NHL made my sides hurt from laughing.

I truly enjoy that every team involved in that cluster***k of a carousel is missing the playoffs. Tkachuk showed his true colors there, a man of “me,” instead of we. At least he’ll have a sweet tan and get to wear flip flops to the rink for the next seven years without sniffing the playoffs.

Hahaha

MushedPeas

Glee.

Munny 2.0

Just wanted to say that first goal by Ryan started from good work by Seaweed. He turned the play from defense to offense by stopping the Sens chip-in along the boards, turning with possession, and getting the biscuit to Shore cross-ice with the clearing pass.

He’s been on for a few goals against recently so I just wanted to mention this contribution on the plus side of the ledger.

Side

Another day, another game for the Flames that they were supposed to win due to their strength of schedule.

SK Oiler Fan

Lames lose in OT. 14 betman points now. Not looking good in Cowtown

Oilers still unable to find that low event hockey with a 2-3 goal lead. I’m not sure they have it in them. The high risk plays/60 almost increase with a lead!

GarbanzoHumanBean

Flames hockey is atrocious to watch.

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

But Craig Button SAYS they have a better forward group than the Oilers – right? He’s SURE they will make the playoffs.

Victoria Oil

Slow night. Only ~275 posts so far on a game day.

To fill some space, I’d like to put in my complaint about Jack & Louis blabbering on about stupid stuff while the game is going on. A week or so ago Jack was talking about what a dweeb he was in high school. Today, they were yakking about video games back in the day or something along those lines. Just call the damn game please & thank you.

Side

You got somethin against Hungry Hungry Hippos?

Dee Dee

When you know which line is on the ice and which position everyone plays it’s not like one really needs an announcer, I kind of like the soccer style of announcing where it’s laid back.

Maybe AI SportsAnnouncerGPT will come out soon and can just speak the play for you and let you pick the voice.

I think I’d pick Denis Leary then once in a while switch to Sean Connery or William Shatner.

813.52Ran

There is some woman who does American NHL play-by-play with zero personality. Just describes exactly what is happening on ice, seconds after you see it. Horrible, but may be more to your liking.

I did not like Michaels on the radio for the reasons you stated, but think he is perfect for television. My two cents.

GarbanzoHumanBean

Flames hate post
Columbus drafts Bedard who finds magic with Johnny hockey. Blue Jackets recover and Flames suck for years with Hubs and Kadri. Good night.

ArmchairGM

Sounds great, but I suspect Bedard ends up in San Jose.

Ice Sage

Chicago. Book it.

Victoria Oil

As Diablo mentioned, Ekholm’s offense is very underrated. His pass on the Bjugstad goal was sick.

I wonder if he has a right-shot twin brother….

Gerta Rauss

Vegas won tonight (and are starting to separate a bit)
WPG lost
Van up on Dallas thru 2
CAL tied with ARZ thru 2

A Calgary loss tonight would really be a dagger

Gerta Rauss

…and on queue, ARZ scores shorthanded to go up 3-2 with 18 min remaining

OriginalPouzar

but the Kings are like the Knights and refuse to lose.

I know the Oilers play the Kings twice but its really starting to trend like the Oilers will open the playoff at the Staples Center.

Gerta Rauss

Yes, it’s been a slog the last couple weeks, and we finally jumped over SEA tonight (although it’s tenuous, they have a game in hand)

Just 7-10 days ago we were 4 ?? back of the Conference lead, now, 1st in the Division (or the Conference) is a distant bell

Kesselring playing for ARZ tonight

Gerta Rauss

‘effin Calgary ties it late but loses in OT

So that’s something

NSH wins and LA is up big, late

So the out of town scoreboard wasn’t very kind tonight

Durag

7 games remaining against SJ, ARI and ANA. Is 10 goals and 25 points for McDavid an unrealistic target in those games?

Material Elvis

Anything is possible when it comes to McDavid.

GarbanzoHumanBean

Do the oilers always send in 2 forecheckers when nursing a lead in the last 10 minutes of a game?

Happy with the win. Just asking.

Dee Dee

The best defense is a good offence, errmmmm.

Kert

I don’t mind it. Keep doing the things that gave you the lead.

LMHF#1

They should if they don’t.

OriginalPouzar

If they don’t, the base will criticize for taking the foot off the gas and not going for the kill.

If they do, the base criticizes for not managing the game better.

Right?

Optimism is like heroin

Truth

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

The best in 27 years.

Wow.

winchester

The old Bouch is back. Or at least his luck just reverted.

in Toronto he got lucky intercepting a couple passes that were about to lead to breakaways.

tonight he thought he’d make Macleod feel better by joining him in the giveaway dept. Then just standing there as the next point blank pass goes past him.

Bouchard is playing fine but I do believe the bees will never fully go away.

hopeoil

Are you comparing him with Nail Yakupov?

Hockey Project

McDavid looked so mad at Bouchard for that. “Really, pal? After Saturday night?”

jp

The Bouch to McDavid primary assist?

jp

Good to see Bouchard right back out there. Can NOT be making that kind of turnover though.

LMHF#1

What is with this look back and pass across the middle crap???

Material Elvis

Maybe he thought they were on a power play…..

DevilsLettuce

Mike Smith is impatiently waiting to put to the fear of a long haired old man into him.

thelongdark

Bouchard has had a tough night.

cowboy bill

Way to go Stu.

SK Oiler Fan

The spirit of Grebeshkov just took over #2 that shift

Faustkarz

lol

Diablo

Bouchard is just way casual in his own zone still.

Diablo

Bouch looked completely lost there. The skill level is great but he doesn’t process what’s happening in front of him well.

Diablo

He’s a lot like Nurse that way. I hope that improves more than it has for Nurse.

jp

Holy Shit. Skinner.

My God that was some Bouch Bacon he saved there.

Just huge stops…

OriginalPouzar

Holy Hell Bouch – thank you Stu

Take away the awful giveaway, Bouch also lost the man for the 2nd chance.

Wow!

StixMalone

Bouch with a dumb play….

rich tm

Yup. Bad pass and then complete dear in the headlights after. Skinner with a massive bail out.

Ranford.85

Boston falls to Chicago…. 105 points vs 50….

ArmchairGM

We really broke them, didn’t we?

DevilsLettuce

There’s a over looking to hit somewhere on the ref crew.

khildahl

Every time I think I’ve seen the worst reffed game of the year the refs dig deep and find a way to top themselves.

Diablo

The TSN crew are just shameless homers

Diablo

As are the refs. That’s an awful penalty call

LMHF#1

Still a million times better than listening to someone call a wrestling match during a hockey game.

OriginalPouzar

Well, that was a bit “early” wasn’t it?

OriginalPouzar

D. Ryan owned by Batherson on that battle – just a size/strength matter.

norm2015

73 also in photo

godot10

Vinnie had to worry about Batherson going to the net off the wall. He sight checked, but Stutzle snuck into the slot from behind Vinnie. Stutzle was really Nugent-Hopkins man.

Material Elvis

Nuge should have covered Stutzle. That said, he made a perfect shot and you have to tip your cap sometimes.

cowboy bill

OMG.

cowboy bill

Open Ceci denied.

OriginalPouzar

WHEN Drai gets 50, he’ll be the 12th all time to have 3 season of 50 goals and 50 assist.

Thanks to Gregor for looking up the stats for me.

ArmchairGM
Last edited 1 year ago by ArmchairGM
ArmchairGM

Draisaitl will be 11th all-time with 3 50+50 seasons. Chose your sources carefully! :p

Last edited 1 year ago by ArmchairGM
Diablo

Ekholm’s offence was very under-rated.

DevilsLettuce

If Bouchard stumbles wouldn’t be surprised at all if Ekholm took some PP1 time.

jp

Yeah he’s a bit like Nurse that way. Plays the difficult minutes, and doesn’t benefit from cherry minutes/points, so it obscures the quality even strength offense.

In the last 5 seasons Nurse is 9th in the league in even strength points among D (between Shea Theodore and Dougie Hamilton).

Ekholm is tied for 17th in even strength points in the same span (tied with Sergachev and Giordano, and between Pietrangelo and Fox/Jones).

Ekholm’s offense was definitely under-reported, at least.

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
cowboy bill

Is a three goal lead enough?

khildahl

I see what you’re doing and I approve.

cowboy bill

I want to be able to breathe during the third period.

Last edited 1 year ago by cowboy bill
Scungilli Slushy

In the 3rd yes

Admiral Ackbar

Good gord it’s nice to be on the other end of those buzzer-beaters.

who

Wow. For 35 minutes it looked like the Oilers had no interest in winning this game.
Then they get away with an obvious hook on the 4th goal, and barely beat the buzzer on the 5th.
I hope they’re not using up a months worth of luck tonight.

OriginalPouzar

Hell of a 2nd period.

Scoring chances at 5 on 5 were 16-4 and high danger attempts 9-2,

3 goals and a couple of bars!

hags9k

What was that?! Who are these guys and what have you done with the Oilers?

cowboy bill

The two new guys. Yea !!

Last edited 1 year ago by cowboy bill
OriginalPouzar

Great passes by Bouch, Kostin end Ekholm and amazing finish by the new giant. What a goal.

Tarkus

I figured out who Jack Michaels reminds me of when he goes into monster-truck-rally mode…

Sam Kinison.

Admiral Ackbar

Ha! Great find!

Bill

Kinison was quite the character!

Tarkus

An even better example:

Go to 3:28 of this song. Very NSFW.

maudite

Really greeby late night convenience store clerk at place with sbundant skin mag section that talks uncomfortably candid about his favourites?

jp

That’s a beautiful goal Ekholm to Bjugstad.

OriginalPouzar

Gotta give Bouch and Kostin some props for their passes as well. Ek’s was soft and sweet though, that’s for sure.

jp

Absolutely, nice plays all around before the two big ones to finish it off.

Admiral Ackbar

I was a tiny bit choked that they were not going to muscle out a scoring chance. And then they go straight up finesse. Gorgeous.

Last edited 1 year ago by Admiral Ackbar
OriginalPouzar

Absolute DAGGER!

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

McDavid now tied with Kuuuch with 128.

Next point and it’s the best offensive season since Lemieux and Jagr in 95/96

Kurri17

100 Points Draisaitl! An amazing player, so glad Oilers have him. A great pick by MacT.

OriginalPouzar

A great pick by MacT.

A great sign by Chiarelli.

cowboy bill

Hope a two goal lead is enough.

khildahl

Good thing they made it three.

Scungilli Slushy

Low high open in the slot shooter score

Perfect