Game 68 2022-23: Senators at Oilers

This blog uses five-on-five numbers heavily, because it’s the biggest game state and also a level playing field. I like to wait three years before trusting a player’s numbers. Bill James called it an established level of ability. Some players have seasons that vary wildly and you’re never sure if they’re going to turn into Jari Kurri or Raimo Summanen. What is the established level of ability for Edmonton’s young forwards?

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: Are the Oilers carrying too much youth to win the Stanley Cup?
• Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
• DNB: Blunders hurt Oilers in loss to Maple Leafs
• Lowetide: Making the call on the Edmonton Oilers’ 2023 RFAs
• DNB: The Oilers and Stuart Skinner can use their comeback over the Bruins as a springboard
• DNB: For new Oilers Mattias Ekholm and Nick Bjugstad, family matters most after a trade
• Lowetide: How unique is Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins career season?
• DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
• Lowetide: Oilers finally commit to Evan Bouchard. How much will it cost?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect Tyler Tullio is outplaying the high picks
• DNB: Why more vintage Kailer Yamamoto outings could solve Oilers’ right wing woes
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers spring signing season preview
• DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
• Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
• DNB: Inside Brad Holland’s scouting process
• Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
• At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
• March actual result: 4-2-0, 8 points in six games
• February actual result: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
• January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
• December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
• November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
• October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2022-23: 36-23-8, 80 points in 67 games

The games against Arizona (two) and San Jose (one) should result in three victories. Added to the four victories so far this month, that gets the Oilers to seven for March. I projected a 9-6-0 record. Imminently doable, tonight’s game against Ottawa is a winnable one. Five wins in seven games would be impressive.

The top four teams in the Pacific Division have all played in 67 games. That means a 15-game sprint to the finish, with Vegas (88 points), Los Angeles (85) and Seattle (81) all ahead of Edmonton (80). The schedule turns here a little for the Oilers, this is going to be fun watching this play out.

ESTABLISHED LEVEL OF ABILITY, FIVE-ON-FIVE (FORWARDS)

There’s no need to do this exercise for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman or Evander Kane. It’s not especially important to include Derek Ryan or Mattias Janmark. Ideally, you’d have 245 games for each player we’re discussing but that’s not the case. Here’ are the most productive youngsters in five-on-five points and goal share (career).

• Warren Foegele 334 games, 1.58 pts-60, 48.3 percent goal share
• Kailer Yamamoto 229 games. 1.55 pts-60. 53.5 percent goal share
• Ryan McLeod. 135 games. 1.43 pts-60. 47.7 percent goal share
• Klim Kostin 88 games. 1.90 pts-60. 54.9 percent goal share
• Dylan Holloway 51 games, 1.20 pts-60. 50 percent goal share
• Tyler Benson 38 games. 0.56 pts-60. 34.8 percent goal share

All of the numbers you see are five-on-five. Now, let’s say you are the general manager of the brand new NHL franchise (we’ll call them the Quebec Les Lions de’hiver) and you get to choose any of these men in the expansion draft. Who would you choose?

For me, Kailer Yamamoto is already making reasonable coin and injuries are a worry, but he’s productive on a complementary skill line. That has value. Warren Foegele is a middle six winger also making a good dollar, so I personally would slide him behind Yamamoto on my list.

After that, I have the emerging Klim Kostin. He looked like so many other mediocre prospects upon arrival in Edmonton, but Ken Holland may have caught lightning in a bottle. I’d have to consider him and it would depend on how many sure things are available from other rosters. Let’s set him aside, and return in a minute.

Dylan Holloway is the most dynamic in the group, I’m not sure he’s going to score enough to play in the top-six but even third line he would be a going concern for opponents. He goes in the pile with Yamamoto and Kostin for final consideration. Tyler Benson would be a player I would acquire, but as an unrestricted free agent when Edmonton walks him.

So, we’re left with Yamamoto (makes money, injuries a concern, has scored 20 goals in the NHL), Kostin (rugged, emerging, not as expensive yet) or Holloway (highest ceiling, farthest from delivering). What is your decision? Me, I shoot the moon with Holloway.

Now, what about Ryan McLeod? He is 23 years old, 6.02, 207 and per 82 games in the NHL is posting 12-14-26. This season, his five-on-five pts-60 is 1.76 (only Kostin has a higher number among all the young dudes) and he owns a 49 percent goal share. If I’m an expansion team, considering his contract and the fact he might sign a multi-year deal that brings value, McLeod might be the target. His offense comes at five-on-five, so there’s no empty calories. He is No. 3 among forwards in PK minutes and his skating is exceptional.

McLeod is exactly the kind of player an expansion team grabs, places in a more prominent spot on the roster, and watches him blossom. McLeod might be the right guy to invest in on this list, despite recent events. Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn have new player cards out, you should have a look at McLeod.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

We’ll tee up the Oilers-Senators, look at Canada’s performance against USA at the World Baseball Classic (briefly!) and talk NFL free agency. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!