This blog uses five-on-five numbers heavily, because it’s the biggest game state and also a level playing field. I like to wait three years before trusting a player’s numbers. Bill James called it an established level of ability. Some players have seasons that vary wildly and you’re never sure if they’re going to turn into Jari Kurri or Raimo Summanen. What is the established level of ability for Edmonton’s young forwards?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Are the Oilers carrying too much youth to win the Stanley Cup?
- Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
- DNB: Blunders hurt Oilers in loss to Maple Leafs
- Lowetide: Making the call on the Edmonton Oilers’ 2023 RFAs
- DNB: The Oilers and Stuart Skinner can use their comeback over the Bruins as a springboard
- DNB: For new Oilers Mattias Ekholm and Nick Bjugstad, family matters most after a trade
- Lowetide: How unique is Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins career season?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
- Lowetide: Oilers finally commit to Evan Bouchard. How much will it cost?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect Tyler Tullio is outplaying the high picks
- DNB: Why more vintage Kailer Yamamoto outings could solve Oilers’ right wing woes
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers spring signing season preview
- DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
- Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
- DNB: Inside Brad Holland’s scouting process
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
- March actual result: 4-2-0, 8 points in six games
- February actual result: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 36-23-8, 80 points in 67 games
The games against Arizona (two) and San Jose (one) should result in three victories. Added to the four victories so far this month, that gets the Oilers to seven for March. I projected a 9-6-0 record. Imminently doable, tonight’s game against Ottawa is a winnable one. Five wins in seven games would be impressive.
The top four teams in the Pacific Division have all played in 67 games. That means a 15-game sprint to the finish, with Vegas (88 points), Los Angeles (85) and Seattle (81) all ahead of Edmonton (80). The schedule turns here a little for the Oilers, this is going to be fun watching this play out.
ESTABLISHED LEVEL OF ABILITY, FIVE-ON-FIVE (FORWARDS)
There’s no need to do this exercise for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman or Evander Kane. It’s not especially important to include Derek Ryan or Mattias Janmark. Ideally, you’d have 245 games for each player we’re discussing but that’s not the case. Here’ are the most productive youngsters in five-on-five points and goal share (career).
- Warren Foegele 334 games, 1.58 pts-60, 48.3 percent goal share
- Kailer Yamamoto 229 games. 1.55 pts-60. 53.5 percent goal share
- Ryan McLeod. 135 games. 1.43 pts-60. 47.7 percent goal share
- Klim Kostin 88 games. 1.90 pts-60. 54.9 percent goal share
- Dylan Holloway 51 games, 1.20 pts-60. 50 percent goal share
- Tyler Benson 38 games. 0.56 pts-60. 34.8 percent goal share
All of the numbers you see are five-on-five. Now, let’s say you are the general manager of the brand new NHL franchise (we’ll call them the Quebec Les Lions de’hiver) and you get to choose any of these men in the expansion draft. Who would you choose?
For me, Kailer Yamamoto is already making reasonable coin and injuries are a worry, but he’s productive on a complementary skill line. That has value. Warren Foegele is a middle six winger also making a good dollar, so I personally would slide him behind Yamamoto on my list.
After that, I have the emerging Klim Kostin. He looked like so many other mediocre prospects upon arrival in Edmonton, but Ken Holland may have caught lightning in a bottle. I’d have to consider him and it would depend on how many sure things are available from other rosters. Let’s set him aside, and return in a minute.
Dylan Holloway is the most dynamic in the group, I’m not sure he’s going to score enough to play in the top-six but even third line he would be a going concern for opponents. He goes in the pile with Yamamoto and Kostin for final consideration. Tyler Benson would be a player I would acquire, but as an unrestricted free agent when Edmonton walks him.
So, we’re left with Yamamoto (makes money, injuries a concern, has scored 20 goals in the NHL), Kostin (rugged, emerging, not as expensive yet) or Holloway (highest ceiling, farthest from delivering). What is your decision? Me, I shoot the moon with Holloway.
Now, what about Ryan McLeod? He is 23 years old, 6.02, 207 and per 82 games in the NHL is posting 12-14-26. This season, his five-on-five pts-60 is 1.76 (only Kostin has a higher number among all the young dudes) and he owns a 49 percent goal share. If I’m an expansion team, considering his contract and the fact he might sign a multi-year deal that brings value, McLeod might be the target. His offense comes at five-on-five, so there’s no empty calories. He is No. 3 among forwards in PK minutes and his skating is exceptional.
McLeod is exactly the kind of player an expansion team grabs, places in a more prominent spot on the roster, and watches him blossom. McLeod might be the right guy to invest in on this list, despite recent events. Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn have new player cards out, you should have a look at McLeod.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We’ll tee up the Oilers-Senators, look at Canada’s performance against USA at the World Baseball Classic (briefly!) and talk NFL free agency. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
New for The Athletic: Is Oilers AGM Brad Holland having an impact on trade success?
https://theathletic.com/4305446/2023/03/15/oilers-trades-brad-holland/
Hello fellow Lowetiders, I can’t figure this out. With schedule strength, if the Oilers are somehow able to go 10-4 to finish. Any chance to win the pacific?
Not much of one. Vegas would then have to go 6-7-1 to stay clear of us.
Playing Jack in late February messed up the Conference and Division crown odds for the team.
Its a pure shame but it is what it is.
Oh yeah, I forgot…
That powerplay goal by Nuge was a one-timer. A short one albeit but, a one-timer nonetheless. I believe that’s a first for The Nuge who typically needs to stop the puck to shoot the puck. I’ve never seen him swing through a puck before, and he doesn’t take a lot of slap shots in the first place.
It’s the one thing he doesn’t really have in his arsenal. Now that he’s done it in a game, can he repeat it? Add that weapon to an already historic powerplay…
Did it twice. Second one hit iron.
I didn’t watch the Flames game but I find their TOI interesting:
Backlund: 19:56
Lindholm: 19:47
Toffoli: 18:57
Bread Guy: 18:52
Coleman: 16:39
Pelletier: 16:04
Huberdeau: 15:32
Dube: 14:38
Kadri: 14:17
Lewis: 11:17
Lucic: 11:07
I can’t imagine having your newly acquired $7mx7 and soon to be $10.5mx8 forwards play so little in a game against an allegedly much weaker team with the season on the line, is making anyone happy.
And people ragged on Holland for the contracts he gave Hyman and Nuge.
I was one of the few posters who called all of Treliving’s move crap the second they were made. Welp sucks to suck Calgary, sucks to suck. Watching Dom’s model spit them out as the 2nd best team in the NHL made my sides hurt from laughing.
I truly enjoy that every team involved in that cluster***k of a carousel is missing the playoffs. Tkachuk showed his true colors there, a man of “me,” instead of we. At least he’ll have a sweet tan and get to wear flip flops to the rink for the next seven years without sniffing the playoffs.
Hahaha
Glee.
Just wanted to say that first goal by Ryan started from good work by Seaweed. He turned the play from defense to offense by stopping the Sens chip-in along the boards, turning with possession, and getting the biscuit to Shore cross-ice with the clearing pass.
He’s been on for a few goals against recently so I just wanted to mention this contribution on the plus side of the ledger.
Another day, another game for the Flames that they were supposed to win due to their strength of schedule.
Lames lose in OT. 14 betman points now. Not looking good in Cowtown
Oilers still unable to find that low event hockey with a 2-3 goal lead. I’m not sure they have it in them. The high risk plays/60 almost increase with a lead!
Flames hockey is atrocious to watch.
But Craig Button SAYS they have a better forward group than the Oilers – right? He’s SURE they will make the playoffs.
Slow night. Only ~275 posts so far on a game day.
To fill some space, I’d like to put in my complaint about Jack & Louis blabbering on about stupid stuff while the game is going on. A week or so ago Jack was talking about what a dweeb he was in high school. Today, they were yakking about video games back in the day or something along those lines. Just call the damn game please & thank you.
You got somethin against Hungry Hungry Hippos?
When you know which line is on the ice and which position everyone plays it’s not like one really needs an announcer, I kind of like the soccer style of announcing where it’s laid back.
Maybe AI SportsAnnouncerGPT will come out soon and can just speak the play for you and let you pick the voice.
I think I’d pick Denis Leary then once in a while switch to Sean Connery or William Shatner.
There is some woman who does American NHL play-by-play with zero personality. Just describes exactly what is happening on ice, seconds after you see it. Horrible, but may be more to your liking.
I did not like Michaels on the radio for the reasons you stated, but think he is perfect for television. My two cents.
Flames hate post
Columbus drafts Bedard who finds magic with Johnny hockey. Blue Jackets recover and Flames suck for years with Hubs and Kadri. Good night.
Sounds great, but I suspect Bedard ends up in San Jose.
Chicago. Book it.
As Diablo mentioned, Ekholm’s offense is very underrated. His pass on the Bjugstad goal was sick.
I wonder if he has a right-shot twin brother….
Vegas won tonight (and are starting to separate a bit)
WPG lost
Van up on Dallas thru 2
CAL tied with ARZ thru 2
A Calgary loss tonight would really be a dagger
…and on queue, ARZ scores shorthanded to go up 3-2 with 18 min remaining
but the Kings are like the Knights and refuse to lose.
I know the Oilers play the Kings twice but its really starting to trend like the Oilers will open the playoff at the Staples Center.
Yes, it’s been a slog the last couple weeks, and we finally jumped over SEA tonight (although it’s tenuous, they have a game in hand)
Just 7-10 days ago we were 4 ?? back of the Conference lead, now, 1st in the Division (or the Conference) is a distant bell
Kesselring playing for ARZ tonight
‘effin Calgary ties it late but loses in OT
So that’s something
NSH wins and LA is up big, late
So the out of town scoreboard wasn’t very kind tonight
7 games remaining against SJ, ARI and ANA. Is 10 goals and 25 points for McDavid an unrealistic target in those games?
Anything is possible when it comes to McDavid.
Do the oilers always send in 2 forecheckers when nursing a lead in the last 10 minutes of a game?
Happy with the win. Just asking.
The best defense is a good offence, errmmmm.
I don’t mind it. Keep doing the things that gave you the lead.
They should if they don’t.
If they don’t, the base will criticize for taking the foot off the gas and not going for the kill.
If they do, the base criticizes for not managing the game better.
Right?
Truth
The best in 27 years.
Wow.
The old Bouch is back. Or at least his luck just reverted.
in Toronto he got lucky intercepting a couple passes that were about to lead to breakaways.
tonight he thought he’d make Macleod feel better by joining him in the giveaway dept. Then just standing there as the next point blank pass goes past him.
Bouchard is playing fine but I do believe the bees will never fully go away.
Are you comparing him with Nail Yakupov?
McDavid looked so mad at Bouchard for that. “Really, pal? After Saturday night?”
The Bouch to McDavid primary assist?
Good to see Bouchard right back out there. Can NOT be making that kind of turnover though.
What is with this look back and pass across the middle crap???
Maybe he thought they were on a power play…..
Mike Smith is impatiently waiting to put to the fear of a long haired old man into him.
Bouchard has had a tough night.
Way to go Stu.
The spirit of Grebeshkov just took over #2 that shift
lol
Bouchard is just way casual in his own zone still.
Bouch looked completely lost there. The skill level is great but he doesn’t process what’s happening in front of him well.
He’s a lot like Nurse that way. I hope that improves more than it has for Nurse.
Holy Shit. Skinner.
My God that was some Bouch Bacon he saved there.
Just huge stops…
Holy Hell Bouch – thank you Stu
Take away the awful giveaway, Bouch also lost the man for the 2nd chance.
Wow!
Bouch with a dumb play….
Yup. Bad pass and then complete dear in the headlights after. Skinner with a massive bail out.
Boston falls to Chicago…. 105 points vs 50….
We really broke them, didn’t we?
There’s a over looking to hit somewhere on the ref crew.
Every time I think I’ve seen the worst reffed game of the year the refs dig deep and find a way to top themselves.
The TSN crew are just shameless homers
As are the refs. That’s an awful penalty call
Still a million times better than listening to someone call a wrestling match during a hockey game.
Well, that was a bit “early” wasn’t it?
D. Ryan owned by Batherson on that battle – just a size/strength matter.
73 also in photo
Vinnie had to worry about Batherson going to the net off the wall. He sight checked, but Stutzle snuck into the slot from behind Vinnie. Stutzle was really Nugent-Hopkins man.
Nuge should have covered Stutzle. That said, he made a perfect shot and you have to tip your cap sometimes.
OMG.
Open Ceci denied.
WHEN Drai gets 50, he’ll be the 12th all time to have 3 season of 50 goals and 50 assist.
Thanks to Gregor for looking up the stats for me.
I posted this a week ago. You’re late! 😉
https://lowetide.ca/2023/03/06/game-65-2022-23-oilers-at-sabres/#comment-1198973
Draisaitl will be 11th all-time with 3 50+50 seasons. Chose your sources carefully! :p
Ekholm’s offence was very under-rated.
If Bouchard stumbles wouldn’t be surprised at all if Ekholm took some PP1 time.
Yeah he’s a bit like Nurse that way. Plays the difficult minutes, and doesn’t benefit from cherry minutes/points, so it obscures the quality even strength offense.
In the last 5 seasons Nurse is 9th in the league in even strength points among D (between Shea Theodore and Dougie Hamilton).
Ekholm is tied for 17th in even strength points in the same span (tied with Sergachev and Giordano, and between Pietrangelo and Fox/Jones).
Ekholm’s offense was definitely under-reported, at least.
Is a three goal lead enough?
I see what you’re doing and I approve.
I want to be able to breathe during the third period.
In the 3rd yes
Good gord it’s nice to be on the other end of those buzzer-beaters.
Wow. For 35 minutes it looked like the Oilers had no interest in winning this game.
Then they get away with an obvious hook on the 4th goal, and barely beat the buzzer on the 5th.
I hope they’re not using up a months worth of luck tonight.
Hell of a 2nd period.
Scoring chances at 5 on 5 were 16-4 and high danger attempts 9-2,
3 goals and a couple of bars!
What was that?! Who are these guys and what have you done with the Oilers?
The two new guys. Yea !!
Great passes by Bouch, Kostin end Ekholm and amazing finish by the new giant. What a goal.
I figured out who Jack Michaels reminds me of when he goes into monster-truck-rally mode…
…Sam Kinison.
Ha! Great find!
Kinison was quite the character!
An even better example:
Go to 3:28 of this song. Very NSFW.
Really greeby late night convenience store clerk at place with sbundant skin mag section that talks uncomfortably candid about his favourites?
That’s a beautiful goal Ekholm to Bjugstad.
Gotta give Bouch and Kostin some props for their passes as well. Ek’s was soft and sweet though, that’s for sure.
Absolutely, nice plays all around before the two big ones to finish it off.
I was a tiny bit choked that they were not going to muscle out a scoring chance. And then they go straight up finesse. Gorgeous.
Absolute DAGGER!
McDavid now tied with Kuuuch with 128.
Next point and it’s the best offensive season since Lemieux and Jagr in 95/96
100 Points Draisaitl! An amazing player, so glad Oilers have him. A great pick by MacT.
A great pick by MacT.
A great sign by Chiarelli.
Hope a two goal lead is enough.
Good thing they made it three.
Low high open in the slot shooter score
Perfect