Everyone is winning, the Oilers could lock in as the No. 3 team in the Pacific by the end of the week, and then it’s a matter of finding out who wins the division. At this point, my money is on the Los Angeles Kings, meaning Vegas Golden Knights would be the opponent.
Does it matter? I think it does, the Kings have the same look now (different style, same look) as they did in 2012. You may recall the Kings rolled over a strong Vancouver Canucks team that spring four games to one. At some point, just making the postseason is good, but for a team like Edmonton, a final four group last year, more is expected. Stay the course, there’s a game tonight. But out of town scoreboard watching is officially a sport again in Edmonton.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers at 2018 NHL Draft, making the final call
- New DNB: How the Oilers’ playoff path looks rockier after loss to Golden Knights
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers re-sign trade deadline acquisition Nick Bjugstad?
- DNB: Why Edmonton Oilers and their star players believe Pride night is ‘important to celebrate’
- Lowetide: Evander Kane, Zach Hyman and the Oilers’ ideal Connor McDavid line
- DNB: Connor McDavid joins the 60-goal club
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ defence deep enough to win the Stanley Cup?
- DNB: What I got wrong: Jack Campbell hasn’t given Oilers a goaltending upgrade
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Matvey Petrov and his possible impact in 2023-24
- DNB: Oilers’ recent play gives 3 reasons to be optimistic about a long playoff run
- Lowetide: Is Oilers defenceman Brett Kulak the odd man out this summer?
- Lowetide: Is Oilers AGM Brad Holland having an impact on trade success?
- DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl shows he’s more than Connor McDavid’s sidekick
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers carrying too much youth to win the Stanley Cup?
- Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers spring signing season preview
- DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
- Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
- DNB: Inside Brad Holland’s scouting process
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-0-1)
- On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
- March actual result: 9-2-1, 17 points in 12 games
- February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 41-23-9, 91 points in 73 games
One of the things fans do is worry. If worry was a skill, Oilers fans would be Gretzky. I keep reading about how good LAK and Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken are, but would bet not a one of them wants to play the Edmonton Oilers in the first round. Folks, it’s called parity and you’re going to have to give in and acknowledge much of what we watch is luck. Pure, stupid, idiotic, damnable luck. So, when you’re talking about the Kings and their all-world run, please spend a second or two on how luck lands for teams.
There’s also some reality that doesn’t look great, too. Did you know Philip Danault’s goal share at five-on-five this season is in the ditch? Don’t hear the Armageddon Army telling you that, do you? Yes sir, it says right here in the book of Natural Stat Trick that Mr. Danault, while in control of all of his faculties, done did commit the mortal sin of going 36-42 goals this season in the discipline. This is after four handsome years of positives, and he may recover as the postseason arrives. He is 7-5 this month, so perhaps he has recovered.
QUESTIONS ABOUT TONIGHT’S GAME?
This is the first of a back-to-back, Arizona tonight and Vegas tomorrow. I would run Stuart Skinner both nights, but he wasn’t as sharp as normal on the weekend so maybe Campbell tonight and Skinner tomorrow. I don’t think the game against the Golden Knights is a must-win now, Edmonton is seven points back of Vegas with nine to play and five points back of the Kings. Still have some work to do. As an aside, if the choices are playing the Kings or Minnesota Wild (winners of the central), which would you prefer? The danger there is the Colorado Avalanche are rolling now. There are evildoers everywhere!
Connor McDavid didn’t look 100 percent after the McCabe crosscheck on Saturday night, and we should see some line shuffling in my opinion. McDavid can carry many things, but two wingers who aren’t contributing is a bridge too far. I’d put Zach Hyman back on his line, and run Leon-Nuge and Foegele-Bjugstad as the pairs. Kane, Yamamoto and Derek Ryan/Klim Kostin can rotate. Maybe Ryan McLeod is getting better.
I always run NHL equivalencies on players from the SHL and KHL, never knowing if they are coming over. Apparently Rickard Hugg is going to sign with a team. He’s a smaller forward, and his NHLE is 35, that’s a strong number. He is 24, skilled and on an Atlantic crossing.
CONDORS
Bakersfield won last night, it was a great game. I’m convinced Raphael Lavoie and Noah Philp will play in the NHL, and Dylan Holloway scored a nice goal after getting a breakaway chance. He touches the puck so much, but needs extra chances to score. I think he’ll be 20-20-40 in the NHL, but you’re going to be amazed at how fast he is, how often he touches the puck and the chances he earns. If he plays with McDavid, and brings white light/white heat to his shot placement, he could be a big scorer. Man he gets chances. Olivier Rodrigue had another nice game, he’s heading in a good direction.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
I’m back and glad for it, 10-2 on TSN1260 today. Guests include Justin Dunk from 3Down Nation, Paul Sir, Darren Dreger and Alex Eskandarkhah, director of Coaching While Black. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
We are supremely fortunate this team is flirting with the top PP % of all time;
Now McDavid+Draisaitl have been joined by Ekholm, Kane, Hyman who’s breaking out as a top 30 NHL player;
Add RNH who literally has waitied until he grew his man strength now he’s another top; line player who no one predicted.
Add some pretty entertaining bottom six players.
Man Oilers fans like to pile on Campbell, even when he has a solid night in net.
He made some good stops when the game was in the balance … and he made just enough stops to allow the Oilers to outscore their mistakes. I didn’t like the first goal, but I always hate it when our goalies let in the first one … gotta bear down and give the team a chance to take a lead.
The Oilers did not bring their A game in front of Campbell tonight. The third and forth goals were especially egregious. Just. Awful. Defence.
That said, the top guys just did not look engaged tonight … I think that’s how it is for most teams that play the Coyotes (e.g. Arizona did the same to the Avs just last night) in the Mullet. No one wants to ratchet up the physicality against a bottom feeder team. It’s the NHL version of ‘load management’, especially when the real test is in Vegas tomorrow.
Is it too much for me to ask to want to see a league average save percentage, like a .904?
He’s had one quality start (above league average sv%) in his last 10 games.
I don’t care about save percentage if Soup can pull the Fuhr trick of making exactly as many saves as he needs to. People can look at the win-loss record as some indication, but lordy it don’t feel like that’s what’s happening here.
He did not look solid to me at all. When I see a goalie lunging out all over the place it looks more “scared to death” than solid to me….. YMMV
Oilers have only lost in regulation four times in the past 20 games. Pretty wild stat to think about when you’re coming down the stretch like this.
20-5-6 in past 31 games. P% .742.
I keep saying Campbell runs more consistent than a swiss watch.
.879 on the night. .882 on the season
I’ve got Audemars losing more time than that.
Hopefully Daylight savings time kicks in on Campbell’s SV%
I hope they were just saving themselves for tomorrow night in Vegas. At least Skinner will be protecting the net. I’m usually a Campbell defender. But not tonight. He just doesn’t look right.
Should never have been this close. Guys stopped playing once we were up by two.
I think Soupy deserves a lot of credit for this game. He had a couple of wobbles but was strong most of the night and made some huge saves.
We gotta clean up our d zone coverage, man. It was as bad as it’s been all year.
I know we can play better and we have defore but, man, if we keep doing this we won’t be going far in the playoffs…
whew
It wasn’t pretty but that’s a late season win by a goalie that needed it and 2 more points for the good guys
And we are bound for Vegas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQy42znkj4
Sleep well, young men.
As bad as Campbell has been (and he really wasn’t too bad tonight), it’s crazy odd that he has a pretty damn good record at 19-9-4. Terrible save percentage at .882. That is an oddity isn’t it? Oh well, just keep scoring one more than the other guys.
Lawson Crouse with the one-touch corner dump in from the high slot.
A win, but not one that inspires much confidence.
Nuge usually money with those chipouts
Good thing Leon feels like winning.
McDavid still standing around…wtf?!?
Showing a lot of faith putting Kane out there in the dying moments of the game, considering his recent defensive history.
Foegele missed the EN by….a lot.
Foegele loves dumping the puck into the corner, even with an empty net. 😛
Ha. Gaining the coach’s trust.
29 poor puck management in the nuetral zone.
Just can’t do that with a 1 goal lead
Yotes broadcast really likes Kostin.
Kostin draws the PP for the go-ahead goal, rewarded with a shift with under 5 to go (although the back pass to the slot may not have been the best decision).
That was not the correct play.
I’m not sure I’ve seen a game where McDavid has taken fewer strides. He’s gliding around everywhere.
This is just weird.
Saving juice for Vegas
And he’s only got one point. A point per game pace is suspiciously slow.
Maybe an injury from the cross check last game??
BOOM!!! Nuge cleans it up!!! Bought time Bouch let er rip!
Nuuuugggeee!
Nuggy!
Bouch looking to eat up an extra $212,500 of cap next year with a third bonus when he gets to 40.
That’s the five we need, right?
They’ll need more
Oilers catch a break on that “generous considering the game history” PP.
Nugent H with a little Wango Tango
Another one with Campbell on his belly after a rebound. Did he loose all strength in his legs? Can’t push across and can’t keep upright.
Is he injured?
Something ain’t right. It’s slow motion loading up on his push leg then he can’t keep his upper body upright coming across. Just pancakes himself
Redemption save by Campbell.
lol Poor Soupy. Having his best game all year and we’re shitting the bed in the D zone.
Do the guys not like him or what? Also not his fault, there. Bouch looking for daisys…or something…
Yikes If this is his best game of the year! Can’t control rebounds and swimming all over the crease.
He’s making tough saves and fighting to keep the puck out of the net any way he can. He’s doing his job tonight. Can’t say the same about our defensive coverage.
D coverage is usually poor, but too often Campbell turns a non danger into an HD
I don’t like the Coyotes first and third goals on Campbell. The second was a fluke own goal off Ekholm’s skate. The fourth was poor defensive play. Campbell has made a lot of great saves tonight.
He’s mastered the awkward looking save.
Thats the thing – Too many are awkward
Man that howling coyote is so irritating…
Ekholm chasing to the blue line – a really dumb move.
Goddamn it Oilers! Bouchard was on a sightseeing tour on that goal.
good gord… lazy hockey
Yeah let’s just fall asleep here
Defending no one. Again.
Seriously – they’re playing with no urgency.
And McDavid not looking ‘on’ again…
Wow. That was a high skill move. That’s not on Soup.
Sure coulda used some help, there…
That sequence should not result in a tap in. Get some fin rebound control
Terrible rebound control…..and then again.
I thought it was screened. Way harder to control rebound’s from a screen.
Maybe, but the puck was 3 ft away after the rebound. Poke it into the corner.
He just can’t recover after save 1 because he too often makes save 1 look so difficult
Bad sequence by campbell
Colorado just ran a power play against the Ducks with 3D on the ice…Makar, Toews and Girard.
They scored.
Why is that such breaking news?
When is the last time you saw a team run out three D to start a power play?
I’ve never seen it before and I’m old.
Sutter ran 5 d on a powerplay once.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/ef5xr/brent_sutters_brilliant_coaching_tactic_the/
December 1, 2010, Brent Sutter put 5 defensemen on the power play for the Flames. Giordano, Bouwmeester, Sarich, Mikkelson, Babchuk.
Robinson, Savard and Lapointe started a few power plays together (one was used the net front presence on occasion). Bowman would also use all 3 together to kill a 5-3 against.
Oilers PP is currently in the running for best all time, no one’s seen anything like it old or young.
Foegele-Bjugstad-Janmark is an Oiler 3rd line I feel pretty good about.
Weird/surprising Oiler stat:
Full season
PK% – 75.3% (24rd)
Net PK% – 80.5% (20th) (this takes SH goals into account)
Since Jan 1st
PK% – 78.1% (23rd)
Net PK% – 86.0% (7th)
26-1 into the 3rd with lead is a pretty good statistick for the playoffs for the oilers no?
i mean people fret at the vaunted korpisalo sva% in 6 games
Missed most of the game. Is 97 showing any I’ll effects from the McNabb cross check the other night?
McDavid is -2 on the night so far. He does seem a bit off.
Don’t think so, despite the -2.
Sportsnet graphic on Nurse over the last 3 seasons:
EV goals – 3rd
EV points – 11th
Plus/Minus – 9th
That was #300 for Leon. McDavid and Kane both sitting on 299.
It would mean nothing really, but 2 or 3 Oilers hitting 300 in the same would be pretty cool.
So it’s a 2-0 97-19 breakaway with an empty net, who takes the shot?
Maybe they get there before that.
We’ll see I guess if it comes to an empty net (assuming you mean 91 🙂 )
Soup has been quality tonight. I especially like his handling of the pucks. I think he’s earned another start this stretch.
Best I’ve seen him. Nothing wrong with getting his confidence up for the playoffs.
hasn’t left much to eye in rebounds and his glove is active
this team needs more of that whether he is the #1 guy or a wingman next year
oilers can not afford a goalie buyout for another goalie; I believe campbell gets that pressure and while hard, he is working and will prevail through it
Oilers have to be overwhelmingly ahead on HD chances after two.
Natural Stat Trick has it at 10-7 for the Oilers after 2.
5-3 in the first, 5-4 in the second.
I am skeptical of those numbers. They had way more than 5 grade A chances in the 2nd.
Ekholm, I know one poster stated he was just Adam Larsson 2.0
Larsson never took a rush like that
thought I believe Larsson could’ve been an Ekholm style player at one point in his development
Adam Larsson does have 31 points this season with 7 goals (including an OT breakaway winner)….
Homer non-icing call gets a loud boo from the opposition fans.
Don’t believe I’ve seen Bouchard spring his PARTNER for a breakaway before.
bjugstad zone exit to entry was beautiful
Draisaitl scores with a quick release shot. Far from his best chance of the night. So it goes.
Leon from the deepest corner of his office!!!
Edit: maybe the hallway, I dunno.
Dusty over there regardless
Can’t be fluffy from that corner though.
down the hall and from the janitor closer
BOOM!!! Drai only like the difficult goals!