The Edmonton Oilers gunned it during the month of March and are in the conversation for the top of the division. No matter where the team finishes, the postseason will feature a defense that has been shored up by the acquisition of Mattias Ekholm, and an offense that has benefited from a healthy Leon Draisiatl. Oh and Connor McDavid. Add in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane and others, and this team is an absolute load. Can they win Stanley? Yes. Will they win Stanley? God only knows.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: How many more college players will the Oilers sign this spring?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers at 2018 NHL Draft, making the final call
- DNB: How the Oilers’ playoff path looks rockier after loss to Golden Knights
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers re-sign trade deadline acquisition Nick Bjugstad?
- DNB: Why Edmonton Oilers and their star players believe Pride night is ‘important to celebrate’
- Lowetide: Evander Kane, Zach Hyman and the Oilers’ ideal Connor McDavid line
- DNB: Connor McDavid joins the 60-goal club
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ defence deep enough to win the Stanley Cup?
- DNB: What I got wrong: Jack Campbell hasn’t given Oilers a goaltending upgrade
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- DNB: Oilers’ recent play gives 3 reasons to be optimistic about a long playoff run
- DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl shows he’s more than Connor McDavid’s sidekick
- Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
- DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
- Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-0-1)
- On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
- March actual result: 11-2-1, 23 points in 14 games
- February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 43-23-9, 95 points in 75 games
I have the Oilers winning tonight, and that would mean the club ends March with a 12-2-1 record. Music! It would also mean passing the Los Angeles Kings for second place in the Pacific. Vegas Golden Knights play San Jose Sharks tonight, so the Oilers are unlikely to close the gap versus the division leaders this evening.
THE SECOND PERIOD IN VEGAS
I’m not sure a team can be expected to repeat that peformance, but it was something else and I’d love to see it again. According to Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton had a 21-6 shot advantage, 7-4 HDSC and 3-1 goals. The five-on-five numbers are basically identical, 20-5, 6-3 and 2-1 goals. I don’t know we’ll see a period like that one again but it was golden.
THE LINES VERSUS VEGAS
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman: 10:22, 4-4 shots, 1-1 goals, 50 percent expected goals
- Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 9:40, 13-8 shots, 1-0 goals, 58 percent expected goals
- Foegele-Bjugstad-Janmark: 7:54, 4-1 shots, 0-1 goals, 55 percent expected goals
I would run with this group tonight against the Kings. Edmonton enjoyed a strong March, but the five-on-five numbers for the team (41-35, 54 percent) rank No. 3 in the division. I think Kane finding the range will be key, and there was some chem with Draisaitl when Jay Woodcroft shuffled the lines on Tuesday night.
AHL ROOKIES EVEN STRENGTH SCORING
The Bakersfield Condors have several interesting forwards making their debuts this season, and there’s a legit gap in even-strength scoring. Is that a tell? Are AHL rookies who score well at even strength more likely to have NHL careers?
- 2018-19 Cooper Marody (21) 58 games, 15-30-45 (.78 pts-game)
- 2018-19 Tyler Benson (20) 68 games, 13-29-42 (.62 pts-game)
- 2010-11 Teemu Hartikainen (20) 66 games, 10-22-32 (.48 pts-game)
- 2016-17 Jesse Puljujarvi (18) 39 games, 7-11-18 (.46 pts-game) [325 NHL games]
- 2021-22 Raphael Lavoie (20) 56 games, 12-13-25 (.45 pts-game)
- 2018-19 Kailer Yamamoto (20) 27 games, 4-8-12 (.44 pts-game) [237 NHL games]
- 2013-14 Andrew Miller (24) 52 games, 6-16-22 (.42 pts-game)
- 2014-15 Bogdan Yakimov (20) 57 games, 9-14-23 (.40 pts-game)
- 2015-16 Marco Roy (20) 42 games, 7-10-17 (.40 pts-game)
- 2022-23 Tyler Tullio (20) 54 games, 10-11-21 (.39 pts-game)
- 2022-23 Noah Philp (24) 62 games, 13-10-23 (.37 pts-game)
- 2015-16 Anton Slepyshev (21) 49 games, 9-8-17 (.35 pts-game) [102 NHL games]
- 2017-18 Joe Gambardella (23) 50 games, 12-5-17 (.34 pts-game)
- 2019-20 Ryan McLeod (20) 56 games, 5-13-18 (.32 pts-game) [136 NHL games]
- 2021-22 Dylan Holloway (21) 33 games, 5-5-10 (.30 pts-game)
- 2022-23 Xavier Bourgault (20) 56 games, 6-11-17 (.30 pts-game)
- 2017-18 Dave Gust (23) 53 games, 9-7-16 (.30 pts-game)
- 2011-12 Tyler Pitlick (20) 62 games, 4-13-17 (.27 pts-game) [379 NHL games]
- 2019-20 Kirill Maksimov (20) 53 games, 4-7-11 (.21 pts-game)
- 2014-15 Jujhar Khaira (20) 51 games, 4-6-10 (.20 pts-game) [329 NHL games]
- 2022-23 Carter Savoie (20) 43 games, 5-3-8 (.19 pts-game)
- 2013-14 Travis Ewanyk (20) 68 games, 7-5-12 (.18 pts-game)
- 2014-15 Mitch Moroz (20) 66 games, 5-4-9 (.14 pts-game)
As is the case whenever I run these numbers, it’s clear that even-strength scoring isn’t a good predictor of NHL success. Each of the men who succeeded in playing 100 or more NHL games had at least one strength. Jesse Puljujarvi was fast and had size, Kailer Yamamoto had great hands, aggression and a good shot, Anton Slepyshev brought size and a plus shot, Ryan McLeod was a fast center, Tyler Pitlick also played center, had size and owned a 15 percent scoring percentage in his draft year. Jujhar Khaira brought a physical edge and could play center.
Applying those things to the current youths, what conclusions can we draw? Raphael Lavoie’s shot and unique release point are his strengths, plus size and aggressiveness. Noah Philp plays a responsible game and can shoot, plus he’s a center. Dylan Holloway has speed, and he touches the puck so much I believe he’ll find a way to a productive NHL career. Xavier Bourgault is a more complete player than I thought he was, but his slick passing and creativity with the puck are his calling cards. Carter Savoie is from the Lavoie family of first-shot scorers.
Tyler Tullio is an aggressive player with skill, I’m not sure he owns a dominant trait and that’s a downbeat based on the group who made it. However, he is the most impressive even-strength scorer of the 20-year olds in Bakersfield currently.
The overwhelming factor in NHL career games is, as it has always been, draft pedigree. Based on the information above, I believe all of them have a chance to make 100 NHL games, and would put the prospects on the current roster in this order of NHL career likelihood:
- Dylan Holloway
- Xavier Bouragault
- Raphael Lavoie
- Tyler Tullio
- Noah Philp
- Carter Savoie
One of the things that March has proven, in my opinion, is that Stuart Skinner is one of the most valuable players on this team. During the month of March, his five-on-five save percentage slipped to .909. That ranks No. 29 among goaltenders who played 150+ minutes during the month. Jack Campbell’s March save percentage is .859, No. 51 of 56 NHL goalies who qualified in March. Skinner has struggled in the last 30 days, but let’s get real here. Without the rookie, the season would have been a steaming pile of rage and disappointment. Skinner’s performance allowed Ken Holland to address the defense. All hail Stuart Skinner!!
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
Time begins on opening day and we are here! Everyone has a chance at the pennant! While clearly not true, it feels like it! We’ll preview the Kings-Oilers and talk Jays, plus more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
In California for the old lady’s birthday and we had a hell of a time finding a pub with the game on last night after dinner.
8-1-1 in their last 10 games. Presently the hottest team in the NHL.
Just won two scheduled losses in a row, the last with a shutout.
Goal differential is now up to +46. This team is legit. We’d all like to see the GA lower but that’s not who they were this season. but they regularly out-score their mistakes so I’ll take it..
Evander Kane’s ribs look healed finally and he’s starting to find his timing too. He was better with Drai last year too if memory serves. A fully operational death Kane is crucial to the playoffs and I’m so-o happy to see he’s back to form.
Ekholm is a Gordsend. Desharnais looks more and more vet with every passing day and even Boosh looks a little different. Seemed to me tonight, whenever he made a mistake, he picked up on it immediately and dealt with it with confidence and competence. He didn’t always succeed, but he didn’t look lost or unsure. And he showed some intensity in his net-front battles and post-whistle scrumaging.
Drai, The Leon King, man. Another ungordly backhand behind-the-back pass. Across the width of the ice. Man. Oh. Man. three unreal passes this week and I couldn’t tell you which was the best play. Probably the middle one, I guess, because there’s so much more going on in that play and all at speed… but they’re all masterpieces.
Connor… I’ve said it before… He’s like Gretz… He’s always aware of the important moments and finds a way to make a dramatic impact. Croz has a bit of that in him too (the Van Olys come to mind), but not to the degree that McDavid does.
Skinner deserves every kudo thrown his way. And his calling card is thriving in the playoffs. He seems to have the perfect emotional make-up for the biggest pressure position on the team and that’s usually the difference between the good ones and the great ones. A huge faction wanted him to start the playoffs last year and Smith burned at the stake. Lol, some of us got singed a little defending him. But we’re finally going to get to see him get his chance, and I’m damned excited about it.
And finally a hat tip to the team play: The Patience Game… they can call it up when they need it. That’s huge.
I imagine Bouch’s attitude and outlook benefit from Ken pulling away the scaffolding and insisting he be the man. It’s a vote of confidence, it’s open road, and it allows less room for excuses. Bough’s time is now and he’s feeling it.
In a weirdly similar way, I imagine the same is true of Nuge, who before this contract and upturn in the team’s fortunes, never enjoyed a moment of true stability. A DoD and everything in doubt, everything up for question, no one safe, nothing much to celebrate. That is over. Nuge forever.
Nuge Forever. This is a new LT phrase that shall ring down from the Halls of Valhalla!
Hard to criticize that game – eerily similar to last year’s G7 vs Kings, complete with 97 dagger goal.
But in honour of our self-censored colleague, here goes:
‘LA still only gives up 2 goals!’
‘Byfield had lots of chances – he’s gonna be generational in 2032!’
‘Todd McL is the line-matching, volume-shooting genius the Oilers should have… doh!’
The Kings lead the season series 2-1.
One more to go.
Skinner outplayed Korpisalo and Gavrikov could do diddly squat to prevent the Oilers from scoring.
First time the Kings have been shutout since the trade deadline.
I guess the Oilers got better too.
This was hilariously well played.
Took a bit longer than anticipated but with the schedules the way they are to play out the side just gonna go ahead and call.
Oilers take the Division and the Conference.
None of that matters of course. It’s all just a warmup for The Dance.
I’m starting to get the the feels. Starting to get the feels that they won’t be denied. Way to early to say that, way to early to get get jacked up.
But they are winning in every way. They are willing themselves to win in every way. There’s no quit, there’s no panic. It’s team wide and everyone is participating. No hangers on, everyone is pulling their weight. There is a job to do and their are doing it.
There is ice in their veins.
Fuck me this is exciting.
Vegas held to 1 point…..BRUTAL giveaway by Peitrangelo giving Couture a breakaway….then Peitroangelo needs 3 attempts to break his stick and nearly hits his goalie.
Anybody know how many hits Kane ended up with?
Anyways, it’s funny how there was so much concern about Kane a few days ago. Then he gets a goal and 11 SOG last game and tonight he contributes 1 goal, 5 SOG and a boatload of hits. And he delivered all those hits without taking a penalty.
Mr. Kane is fully engaged and his swagger is contagious.
1G +1 5Sh 8Hits (0PIM) last night.
1G +1 11Sh 4Hits (0PIM) on Tuesday.
I wasn’t able to fully watch last nights game, but by the numbers it’s looked like Draisaitl and Kane have some nice chemistry going right now.
Is it a coincidence that 97 plays his best defensive game of the season and a skinner shutout follows? Set the tone with the big hit and was dogged all over his check in the D Zone. Everyone joined the battle with him. Awesome game.
It’s incredibly difficult to battle the inappropriate thoughts about how damn absolutely amazing the addition of Ekholm has been.
Ha what’s the meme or trend?
And I say this with an unblemished record of staunch heterosexuality:
“Daddy? Sorry. Daddy? Sorry…”
Just caught up on tape delay. Enjoying a celebratory bourbon. What a win. L.A. is a legit solid team IMO, and the Oilers deserved the win tonight. Statement game.
I kinda loved 97’s hit on 44 too. I don’t normally like that sort of thing, but that was some richly deserved payback delivered by el Capitan.
Broberg only played 4 minutes – disappointing and not playing doesn’t line up with his sensational metrics in that short period of time.
His time will also come.
I agree. If Kulak was killing it I could understand the deployment, but he’s not. Right now it appears Broberg is the better player.
Was going to update on the PK.
So the Oilers are scoring SH goals, people are talking about it.
I thought they’d also failed to improve their actual ability to stop PP goals against (more SH goals would still be a net positive).
But since the last LA Kings game (this is 34 games, so a large chunk of the season) the Oilers are only allowing 6.89 GA/60 on the PK. That’s not world beating or anything, but it’s a totally respectable 16th in the league since Jan. 10th.
In that time they’ve also been scoring 3.28 GF/60 on the PK (that’s 2nd in the league). And if you’re paying attention, that’s a higher rate than any team in the league is scoring at 5v5 on the full season (the Oilers are better at 5v5 since Jan 10th, but are the only team in the league better than 3.28 GF/60).
So… their PK GF% is 2nd in the league (32% GF on the PK since Jan 9th). In terms of goal differential/60, it looks like Carolina and Boston have bested the Oilers in the last few months due to better GA rates.
But still, the Oilers kind of have one of the best PKs in the league over the last 30+ games (in their own Oiler kind of way).
The NHL.com ‘net PK%’ should bear all this out, but isn’t updated to include tonight’s game yet (the Oilers were up to 5th in net PK% since Jan 10th, before going 1-0 on the PK tonight).
Anyway, another encouraging sign about a season-long team weakness that seems to have seen some improvement.
Oil leading league in shorties feels very 80s Oilers.
It would be cool if HH would show up and be like ‘yeah, great game played by the home squad! Elite talent for the Oilers and what about that rookie goalie!’ And they we could all be like, ah, ye rascal, it’s nice to see you come around! Let’s have a cheers and forget about our differences!
That would be cool.
But internet trolls are cowards.
Kinda sad that beating a dirty team and closing in on the conference lead is overshadowed by sticking it to an internet troll, but whatevs… tonight is a good night all around! Ha!
GOILERS!!!
LONG LIVE LOWETIDE!
Bah ha ha. He will not show up.
Cmon man. Rent free. Absolutely terrific game from the boys. Let’s all enjoy it with the people that appreciate it.
His silence is sound of sweet victory.
300 goals as a team. Best in the league. wowzza
That next game in LA will be violence
Ekholm, oh man. Dying minutes of the game, LA fully pressing for a goal, Oilers desperate to preserve Skinner’s shutout and the W vital to the standings and playoff momentum. Chaos all around. And then the worst thing happens: his stick breaks. Things have gone to absolute shit. What does he do in the crisis? Calmly kneels down beside his goalie and doggedly watches the puck. Ready to do what’s necessary at the given moment. THAT is a veteran, folks.
Perhaps a bizarre comparison but I feel at the least our kind host might appreciate, Ekholm in that moment reminded me of Val Kilmer in the shootout scene in Heat. Hell has broken loose, the vet just calmly goes into action.
This was a very mature game. Skinner deserves a ton of credit and defensive structure was great. The difference was Leon and Connor making elite plays. With the exception of the Avs, no one else has close to that level of elite talent. And I’d take Connor and Leon over McKinnon and Makar every day of the week.
300th goal by McDavid was 300th Oilers goal of the season, too. Pretty cool!
Kane changes this teams swagger in so many ways. Kane and Drai will be in full beast mode in the playoffs.
He really did help set the tone in the 1st period.
…and Yamo is actually a good fit with those two bigger forwards
I thought so too. That’s his fit.
For all the pressure in the last bit (score effects), NST still have Oilers with over 60% expected goals in the 3rd and over 55% in all three periods….
Turns out Oilers CAN win a low-scoring game.
Who knew?
It’s our turn to win the goalie battle. Our rookie is pretty damn good.
Every time the Kings tried to start anything Oilers would simply swarm all over them – it was a real treat to see lol
WHERE IS HH?
Ah come on. He’s always RIGHT HERE.
Say his name 3 times and he shows up tomorrow deflecting to a different topic from one of his 30 other favourite teams.
Because he thrives off of negative attention, I’m guessing he’s busy trolling some Kings blog somewhere extolling the virtues and amazingness of how good the Oilers are. 🤣🤣🤣
lol
As per usual when the Oil are winning, HH is Hiding in his Hole.
Where’s HH AT NOWWW!?
hahaha!
What a win!!!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT!!!!!
There’s definitely over three calls for “hairsyman”
At about eight minutes into the first I looked at my wife and said…LA is not going score in this game, I just felt it.
Amazing game. Love it.
Skinner is the goods. And I feel that exorcised Campbell’s demons as well.
Can’t wait to see Stanley in Edmonton again.
Funny, I felt the same way. Just a sense of calm, knowing that no matter what happened, LA wasn’t going to score and Edmonton was going to win the game. Thoroughly enjoyable.
What. A. Game!
Skinner first and foremost. There’s your shutout. And a statement game by Stu.
Not a lot of rebounds though. It really was a patient (best way possible) effort by the entire team.
I am honestly really surprised they Oil managed to go 3-0-1 on this tough 4 in 6 stretch.
Super happy, but also surprised and impressed. Very impressed.
No let-down after they beat Vegas on Tuesday in such convincing fashion. Wow.
Most wins by a Canadian goalie!
Best game I’ve watched since last years playoffs.
If this team can replicate this effort in the playoffs more often than not… watch out.
Lastly, finally a shutout!
I’m sorry, I know some of you aren’t a fan, but Jack Michaels is the absolute best in the league. What a call.
Hand down, it’s a shame that Sportsnet takes him away from us in the playoffs.
nope, nope, nope! Anybody but Jack in our house. (Well, maybe not Remenda!)
Better than having Singh calling our games; it’s so obvious that he’s a Vancouver guy, whereas Michaels genuinely is a fan of our team.
All hail Stuart Skinner!!!
Ekholm spent the last minute laying on the ice being ManBearPig when he broke his stick.
He made so many good plays without his stick. He’s a defensive genius.
If that was Nurse, the masses would be talking about that more than the win….
I think people can see a guy’s broken stick; I don’t think the vitriol for nurse is that strong
Nurse was belly flopping with his stick in his hands essentially making his stick useless for defending. He’s cut that nonsense out of his game awhile ago, and he’s been better for it.
Eat shit Kings!
As Mr. Lahey calls them: The Shit-Kings who eat shit, Randy.
Kings couldn’t climb the shit rope this evening.
Hear Hear!
Wow between Korpisalo and Skinner that moustache power is too much for any man to bear.
Korpisalo looks like if Wild Bill Hickok was actually a Sedin.
Lol! Exactly.
And Cam McDavid is a dead ringer for a cross of Connor and Dexter.
What.
A.
Game!
wait do we get to hear tomorrow how Copley is better than Campbell?
I uhh.. did not like seeing Ekholm without a stick down on the ice with his face in various shooting/passing lanes.
Skinner is the Principal reason for the win.
#skinnerforcalder
Ok Ken, if you try to send him down this time, Edmonton riots.
Well, that would be the best game of Skinner’s career…….
yessir
…so far.
Shutout.
Finally, a shutout!
That’s a burly ass mustache. Skinner looks like a sheriff.
Soup strainer extraordinaire
This is a total team effort.
Is it just me or has Skinner been playing the puck a lot more than usual in this game?
Mike Smith vibes (I miss him, okay, don’t judge me).
I thought we would miss Mike Smith
I think Skinner will be okay handling playoff hockey.
His track record is one of elevated play in the playoffs.
He’s already started his beard
Great D-zone moves by Foegele after the great save by Skinner!
Bleh; Vegas ties it up.
4.37 a.m. here in Portugal. What a game! Did I really hear “Doughty smoked by Yamamoto”.
He was e-smoked.
The dread 3-0 lead with 4 minutes to go. . . oh, apologies, I think my feed is a little ahead of everyone else’s.
Over the past 10 games or so the Oilers had quite a bit of “slop” in their game, but that game against Las Vegas seems to have taken the slop out of their system. They’re playing pretty well tonight.
Skinner has been impressive.