Game 77 2022-23: Ducks at Oilers

The long NHL season enters the final chapter, as April dawns and the warmth of the sun finally reaches Edmonton. It has been a fascinating season, and the late kick (24-7-7 since January 1) obscured the baffling early chapters (20-16-2). Where will the Oilers finish? Will Connor McDavid reach 156 points? Leon 50 goals? Nuge 50 points twice? The answers are straight ahead.

THE ATHLETIC!

• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers post an incredible March with playoffs in sight
• DNB: The Oilers ‘found a way’ against the Kings
• Lowetide: How many more college players will the Oilers sign this spring?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers at 2018 NHL Draft, making the final call
• DNB: How the Oilers’ playoff path looks rockier after loss to Golden Knights
• Lowetide: Should the Oilers re-sign trade deadline acquisition Nick Bjugstad?
• DNB: Why Edmonton Oilers and their star players believe Pride night is ‘important to celebrate’
• Lowetide: Evander Kane, Zach Hyman and the Oilers’ ideal Connor McDavid line
• DNB: Connor McDavid joins the 60-goal club
• Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ defence deep enough to win the Stanley Cup?
• DNB: What I got wrong: Jack Campbell hasn’t given Oilers a goaltending upgrade
• Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
• DNB: Oilers’ recent play gives 3 reasons to be optimistic about a long playoff run
• DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl shows he’s more than Connor McDavid’s sidekick
• Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
• DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
• DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
• Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, COL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• April prediction: 4-2-0, eight points in six games
• April results:
• March results: 12-2-1, 25 points in 15 games
• February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
• January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
• December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
• November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
• October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2022-23: 44-23-9, 97 points in 76 games

If my prediction turns out, the Oilers would finish 48-25-9, 105 points. The last time the franchise won 105 standings points? The 1986-87 team, for my money the best team in history.

THAT WAS THEN, THIS WAS NOW

We’ve spent more than a decade waiting for the Oilers to combine big youth with quality veterans. Or, put another way, we’ve waited more than a decade for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to become the (soon-to-be) 30-year old center who can give the team important minutes while the young horses run free. Here’s the 2011-12 Oilers. Incredible compared to the current team. Listed are most common lines, and five-on-five pts-60 for the forwards, along with goal share five-on-five for the line.

• Taylor Hall 2.12; RNH 1.95; Jordan Eberle 3.04. Line had 59 percent goal share
• Various-Sam Gagner 1.94; Ales Hemsky 1.43. Duo had 54 percent goal share
• Ryan Smyth 1.71; Shawn Horcoff 0.89; Ryan Jones 1.4. Line had 44 percent goal share
• Ben Eager 1.47; Anton Lander 0.62; Lennart Petrell 0.84. Line had 33 percent goal share

You can actually see where the NHL players end and the heartache begins. This is Steve Tambellini’s team, he had fantastic youth and didn’t surround the team with useful and helpful pieces. That isn’t framing the issue, it isn’t re-writing history, it is a statement of fact. Now, let’s look at the current team.

• Nuge 2.13; Connor McDavid 2.7; Zach Hyman 2.38. Line has 59 percent goal share
• Evander Kane 2.07; Leon Draisaitl 2.39; Kailer Yamamoto 1.62. Line has 67 percent goal share
• Mattias Janmark 1.36; Nuge; Klim Kostin 2.01. Line has 60 percent goal share
• Warren Foegele 2.12; Ryan McLeod 1.83; others. Line has 47 percent goal share
• Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman. Line has a 66 percent goal share.

This is the current group. More depth, more quality, more experience marbled through the roster. Tambellini, Craig MacTavish and Peter Chiarelli all had a lash at making the roster more complete. Ken Holland has the roster closer to a Stanley. Edmonton may not win in the Connor McDavid era. Daryl Katz should have embraced analytics when Tyler Dellow worked for him, should hire the Puck IQ bunch today.

If this team doesn’t win, who knows what happens next? Holland was called out from unusual places before the deadline. That’s a tell. I have no proof, and have zero connection to this team, but this feels like a last chance Texaco. For someone. Whatever happens, Holland got them closer than anyone since Kevin Lowe in 2006. Can he get them to the promised land? It’s an all-in spring.

RAPHAEL LAVOIE

Lavoie scored the winner and had an assist last night in a Bakersfield Condors win. For the season, his boxcars are 23-19-42 in 54 games. Ryan Holt, Condors play-by-play man, said on the broadcast “Lavoie is doing whatever he wants out there” and that’s what it looked like to me. His NHL eqivalency is 31.