I always worried Peter Chiarelli would trade him, but it never came to pass. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins owns a unique place in Edmonton Oilers history, having spent much of his 12-year career playing from the depth of the standings, in the darkness at the edge of town.
Last night, and this morning, is a time for celebration. From “what fresh hell is this?” to “ahead by a century” is a helluva drive, but we are here. Oilers fans are universally pro-Nuge and last night was a brilliant moment in the lore of a team that has so much to celebrate, but little on this side of 1990. Shapes of things to come?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 5 ways Oilers’ Mattias Ekholm has delivered since trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ second half spike owes much to Jay Woodcroft’s innovation
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers post an incredible March with playoffs in sight
- DNB: The Oilers ‘found a way’ against the Kings
- Lowetide: How many more college players will the Oilers sign this spring?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers at 2018 NHL Draft, making the final call
- DNB: How the Oilers’ playoff path looks rockier after loss to Golden Knights
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers re-sign trade deadline acquisition Nick Bjugstad?
- DNB: Why Edmonton Oilers and their star players believe Pride night is ‘important to celebrate’
- Lowetide: Evander Kane, Zach Hyman and the Oilers’ ideal Connor McDavid line
- DNB: Connor McDavid joins the 60-goal club
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ defence deep enough to win the Stanley Cup?
- DNB: What I got wrong: Jack Campbell hasn’t given Oilers a goaltending upgrade
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- DNB: Oilers’ recent play gives 3 reasons to be optimistic about a long playoff run
- DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl shows he’s more than Connor McDavid’s sidekick
- Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
- DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
- Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, COL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- April prediction: 4-2-0, eight points in six games
- April results: 3-0-0, six points in three games
- March results: 12-2-1, 25 points in 15 games
- February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 47-23-9, 103 points in 79 games
The Oilers will need some help from unlikely places, but have put themselves in position to win the Pacific Division title. A loss by Vegas tonight puts the division into absolute chaos, and the three-game sprint to the end of the season could be the highlight of the whole damn season.
DEFENSE AND GOALIE
Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci had a strong game, 1-0 goals and 68 percent expected goals together. Nurse has played well all year, but there’s more maturity in his game recently. I think it comes from not trying to do too much, a reflection of real help on the other big pairing (Ekholm). Nurse has a 51 percent goal share for the season, Ceci now at 48 and climbing.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard were mostly strong on the night, a little wobble and that’s going to happen. Regression will occur for Ekholm, he’s at 71 percent goal share five-on-five through 305 minutes with Edmonton, there are going to be games where he’s dash one or two. Bouchard is at 52 per cent goal share and performing borderline assaults defensively, so I think he’s pretty comfortable with where he is now.
Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais had a high-event game and both played a part (in a bad way) on the GA. You can say “that can’t happen” but it does, and Kulak’s five-on-five goal share this season (53 percent), along with Desharnais’ (63 percent), tell you they’ve been doing good business.
Jack Campbell is in a good spot as the season ends. He stopped all seven HDSC and looked composed throughout the piece. His five-on-five save percentage for the season is now .896, and he’s tied for No. 48 among 54 goalies who have played 1,000 or more minutes. That’s progess. Stuart Skinner is at .925, and tied for No. 10.
FORWARDS
Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid had moments of brilliance, as always, but looked a little off on the night. It was the second game of a btb and the two men played big minutes versus the McLellans, so it was understandable. Both men took extra care defensively, that’s important when time is running out on a dream.
Evander Kane and Zach Hyman brought some fire to the game, both had good moments (Kane 3 HDSC, Hyman one plus the empty-netter) and will be needed during the long drive ahead. I like the uniqueness of these two wingers, they bring something to the table. I think we’re heading into the postseason McDavid-Hyman and Draisaitl-Kane but things can change. Kailer Yamamoto is delivering good shot metrics and his five-on-five outscoring remains intact.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored point No. 100 on the season, and Oilers nation rejoyced. It’s hard to describe how a player chosen No. 1 overall could be both underdog and everyman, but we are here. The long, long years he has traveled to reach this point has to make this even sweeter for the Nuge. He used to get the flu every fall, I really did worry Chiarelli would trade him, he threw everything else that wasn’t nailed down. One of my favourite nights, last night.
Nick Bjugstad scored a goal and the puck was headed in a good direction all night long. He wasn’t the driver on the line, but was a solid veteran presence who had the presence of mind to go to the slot and wait for a pass. Mattias Janmark did drive much of the success on this trio, his work on the Kostin goal electric. He’s one of my favourite Oilers now, occupying the spot where effective players don’t get their due. There’s been a ton of them, going back to Stan Weir and Jaroslav Pouzar.
Klim Kostin earned his own paragraph this morning. His effort is always there, it’s the thinking and execution that sometimes remain on the bench. Last night he was outstanding, scoring a goal and adding a brilliant assist. Two HDSC, blocked a shot, looking injured for a time, he was an entire movie! Great game.
Warren Foegele had a fine game (one HDSC, plenty of puck time), suspect he would have hit the scoresheet with a more dynamic center. In fairness to Devin Shore, he did get two HDSC off and Derek Ryan had one, too. On a night when the top units were misfiring a little, this line was good not great. I expect Ryan McLeod to slide in soon.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy day, 10-2 TSN 1260. We’ll have Steve Lansky on the show, along with Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff. MLB, some football and NBA too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Since March 1st, Skinner is 11-1-1 with a .911 save percentage, while Campbell is 4-1-0 with a .910 save percentage. The Oilers sport the best record in the league in that span.
Proving what many have been saying all along: all this team needs is league-average goaltending to be successful. We don’t have to hope for Roy- or Hasek-levels of goaltending to win it all, just league average. We’re there.
To win a round,
Inthink they will.
Hitting those long weekend beers hard already?
Hey dude, Llamas stay up llate, wanna rrap?
Cooper’s concerned about Jeannot’s injury.
Injuries can hit anyone but wow, that trade is looking worse and worse each day.
That was a galaxy brain trade from day 1. They were given the benefit of the doubt due to Michael Peterson along with their recent track record.
Toronto clinched home ice tonight.
This might be the year.
As I see it there are at least three things that will make it difficult on the Leafs.
1) Tampa is in their heads.
2) Tampa will drag the series into the muck.
3) Vasilevsky vs any Leafs goalie.
Just noticed that Samorukov got a game in for the Blues tonight. 15:48 TOI. Good for him.
I do not like Rantanen being called the moose. Get an original nickname.
Need more original names like the one Louie gave Bjugstad
https://www.reddit.com/r/EdmontonOilers/comments/12d9ie8/big_dick_bjugstad/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Rantanen is 6’4” 220.
So what? Get an original nickname. There’s only one Moose.
Apparently there are two.
There can be only one.
Hockey Players nicknamed Moose
(not necessarily an exhaustive list)
Andre Dupont
Mark Messier
Brian Elliott
Marcus Foligno
There’s a couple others, pretty sure.
Going forward, no more players called moose.
For Messier, it made sense… Mess/Moose.
For Rantanen? Maybe Reindeer. Or just Rat is probably good.
Moose Vasko. Big guy at the time (1960s) at 6’ 2” and 200 lbs.
CBH D for 13 years.
Anyone else watching Sportsnet LA feed of the game? So interesting to hear how other teams commentators call the games. I feel like Louie often goes out of his way to not be an obvious Oiler homer. Stoll’s take in intermission was full on homer and he even admitted so, saying who cares if someone calls him homer. Refreshing and wish we could have more homerism in our commentary.
I’ll take a somewhat objective Louie over homers like John Garrett and Eric Francis, Cassie and the chubby doofus with watery-eyes… whatsisname?… rudy or something, used to wear a stupid headband?
Summarizing!
The bad news: Brind’Amour was held off the scoresheet.
The good news: Quinnipiac won 5-2 and will battle the Minnesotans of Minnesota in Saturday’s final.
Go Bobcats (my first car)!
Wow, good for Hockey East and Team Q. This will be a rare final appearance for the division.
the real Korpisalo has arrived
MacEwen having a night -2.
Oh so that’s why HH tells us the Kings strategy is to play him when they are up 1-2 goals. It’s to ensure they have a buffer for when MacEwen lumbers around ineffectively on the ice.
Even though it’s now 4-0, Korpisalo’s SV% is going up, a healthy .600 last time I checked.
I think McLellan is getting his ass handed to him. This looks a lot like a specific game plan
Kinda like Sutter doing his thing, ain’t gonna change. Not working when the rubber hits the road. I suppose flames have been showing signs of life. Support
The problem is when a team has to play flat out that way all the time and doesn’t have another gear. That was Calgary last year and I believe LA this year. The Oilers are playing great hockey but I believe they still have another gear when needed.
If that’s what you’re expecting from TMac in Game 1, you will likely get your ass handed to you.
Pretty sure Manwood remember well Game 1 last year.
So Nashville has a better points percentage than the Flames after beating Carolina tonight. Massive games between Nashville and first the jets then the flames. If Nashville wins both they should make it in.
It’s gonna be fun to see if the Predators can do it
Go Nashville!
I now consider Nuge to have overtaken Weight in the best of the rest category!
how would you rank the all time Oilers list now?
99
97
11
17
29?
7
9
31
93?
39?
83
94 – people might flip these, but Hemsky was the better player IMO
18 -Simpson
10 -Tikkanen
It’s a great debate for sure, does 44 belong? Can you say Carson was great? Both only played a year.
anyway, 93 has passed 39 in my books.
I’d go
99
97
11
29
7
17
31
9
93
39
94
4
Bold, Leon over Kurri, but I like your courage!
The players you have from 29 to 31 are a difficult group to rank. If draisaitl wins 2 cups there will he discussions about 11 vs 29. Which would be fun discussions to have.
How does one rank a goalie amongst the players!?
I do quite like your rankings, and might put 31 higher yet but who knows…
Where is 44?
At the weather girls condo.
It is amazing how this rumour has persisted in some people’s minds, internet rumours can be so disgustingly destructive.
https://blog.mastermaq.ca/tag/christie-chorley/
This just can’t be! How could this possibly happen to a rich young in their prime hockey player lol.
Robbie Schremp? Bold choice. 😀
Is Messier as dominant a player in his generation as Draitsaitl is in his? I would lean towards no, but then again, I also never saw Messier play live.
Messier was more dominant than Leon but it certainly isn’t much of a gap. Kurri was a fantastic goal scorer and premier defensive forward. Those three are awfully close. I find Coffey tough to rate because other than maybe Orr, he’s the best offensive D the game has ever seen. Does that put him above Leon, Messier and Kurri?
Messier was a nasty beast when it really mattered. He elbowed Vladimir Kovin so hard in the 1984 Canada Cup that it took 28 stitches to close him up. The poor Russian withered on the ice for 5 minutes with the Russian bench watching in horror. I love Leon will see how his career plays out but 6 cups rules the day.
Writhed on the ice.
And we all watched in horror.
I like my hockey tough as anyone, but that was one chicken shit headshot. There was nothing tough about it and nothing worthy of respect – quite the contrary – it was a goon play on a guy who had zero ability to defend himself. I leave Messier off my list of favorite Oilers because for all his talent – he was no better than Raffi Torres on multiple occasions. Draisaitl has a way better all-round skill set, he’s just as big, and just as tough when it matters (see last year’s playoffs in round 2).
His six Stanley Cups say yes, he’s quite a bit better than Draisaitl.
Only player to be Captain of 2 Stanley Cup teams.
Guaranteed a win in game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final then went out and scored a hat-trick.
Known as The Messiah in New York City, yeah, that New York City.
This guy was an absolute force, checking, scoring, and putting the fear of god in his opponents.
Drai has to do something other than score some points to even be in the conversation.
How come no one ever talks about Mr. nice guy Marcel Dionne 6th in all time scoring? Because he never won jack-shit paticapation ribbions are forgotten.
Only perusing out of town scoreboard on the interweb tonight, and that sporadically. What is happening betwixt LA and Vegas?? Early in the first TSN showed LA up 1-0, I go back to check late in the 1st and instead they now report Vegas up 2-0. Was a goal disallowed or is TSN just as hopeless as usual?
Any background on what’s happening from anyone watching the game? I can’t see it here in Mexico….
LA’s first goal called back on an offside review, then the Knights went to work. 3-0 Vegas just past halfway in the first.
LA’s goaltending still sucks, despite what the resident troll would have you believe. Korpisalo gave up 4 goals on the first 7 shots.
Poor Flattop
Kings and Kniggets are pretty similar except Vegas has more jazz. And the Kings are thugs
This game so far isn’t the droid I’m looking for
Korpisalo must have decided to let his two goals per game maximum early tonight so as to get the suspense over with. 😎
A clever plan
I spoke too soon. 🥸
Yeah, I’ve been reading posts by some poster that seems to think he’s the second coming of Hasek. Three goals on four shots tonight lol.
Now that Tkachuk is out of the conference I like him he’s a shit disturber with great hands. Love are hate him you have to admit he’s entertaining. Could imagine having a vanilla player like Huberdeau who’s signed for 10.5 x 8 in he’s declining years. Wow what a gut punch Treliving delivered to the mediocre Flames fans along with his over-rated and over-priced Boston Pizza crap food.
I liked Tkachuk as soon as he left Calgary.
I was also hoping the Oilers would have picked him in the draft but given their career trajectories, I try not to think about that too much.
Also enjoying watching the other Flames who seem to be doing better after having left Calgary.
Bennett, Monahan (his injury history complicates things but still, 17 p in 25 games with a bad Montreal team is good) and Valimaki.
Watching the Flames stifle their good players and losing them for next to nothing while blowing their cap for declining replacement players is always enjoyable.
I enjoy watching Johnny hockey the man is one of a kind entering the zone and opening up ice with his feet and hands. Treliving nickeled and dimed Johnny the previous contract paybacks a bitch Pizza Boy.
Boo Kessel
Booooooooooooooo
Is 30 year-old Alex Lyon going to carry the Panthers into the playoffs?
The guy’s playing his 36th career game tonight, and 12th of the season.
He just picked up his 5th straight win, beating Ottawa 7-2 (he allowed 2 GA on 59 SA, the Panthers being outshot 58-30).
Going back, his little 5 win streak involved:
2 GA on 59 SA to beat Ottawa tonight
1 GA on 40 SA to beat Buffalo
0 GA on 21 SA to shutout Columbus
2 GA on 20 SA to beat Montreal
2 GA on 40 SA to beat Toronto
Quite a little run (not that I know anything about Lyon or am cheering for the Panthers in any way – just noticed his performance tonight).
— Re : Demers. The NHLs pension is calculated by “seasons played”. It’s hugely beneficial to the player to get even a game as that accrues the min. Pension for the year.
— There are of course other factors that go into the pension calculation but an ex player once explained to me that 1 game means you get a 25k per year pension (at a fairly young age, 55 I believe). Every year a player plays min 1 game they get an additional min. 25k.
— So teams often do solids for veterans at the end of seasons. It’s always telling who gets called up: kind of a tell on how the organization rates you.
Hmmmmm so does Berlin get a pension or does it have to be on a standard contract?
In the run to the playoffs the hottest teams:
In the West the Oilers and Avs
In the East Bruins and Rangers
Seems like a final 4, Luck aside. Should be a smokin’ playoffs
And only TB switched out from last year’s top 4.
Honestly, the Rangers are kind of my darkhorse team that scares me the most, crazy offensive talent, Adam Fox, and one of the best goalers in the biz… they’re good.
Huh, I suppose. It’s true that Shesterkin has gotten very hot again down the stretch after a rather normal season.
Personally, I’ve thought basically zero about how the Oilers stack up against teams from the East. They gotta get to the Finals first, and only a fool would say they know who’ll be waiting for them if they do (BOS, NYR, TBY, CAR, etc).
And the Oilers have shown alright against all of them. Probably more so against the Rangers. Cross that bridge when they come to it though.
I think as much about the East. I know they can beat the West, ducks in a row
I guess, got to actually get through 3 of the ducks before facing the East.
Even if our attention meant anything it’s still probably better focused on the task at hand than who might emerge from the East in the end.
One of the best head coaches in the biz too.
Oil call up Demers and McLeod to IR.
Why demers?
Huh, guess he is 4RD.
And Demers has never played a game with the Oilers (unlike Niemalainen, who’d presumably be next up after Broberg on the left side).
And is Niemalainen still injured? Maybe Demers is the straight up #8D right now?
SJ is his old team. And next up. If they’re going to give him a game..
Demers has been a great mentor and vet for the young D in Bakersfield but, from my viewings, is not an NHL player any longer. He gets beat by speed and gives the puck away at the AHL level. If he plays an NHL playoff games, that is big trouble.
Yes, Niemo is still injured and there is no indication he is close.
He can play 3 minutes against SJS in an 11/7 set-up, get his 700th game and say goodbye to the NHL.
Gregor speculating that McLeod could play Tuesday.
Forgot he was at career game 699. You’re right it could be a gesture more than anything (though he clearly is on a pretty short list of D who could play games for the Oilers this spring).
Gregor says Ceci has gone home as his wife is expecting.
Best to get that birth out of the way before the OT elimination games 🙂
Thanks for the Niemalainen update.
And yeah, I know that’s been the gist of your reports on Demers from Bakersfield. You were pretty sure that Desharnais couldn’t skate or pass at an NHL level too though, so I guess I’ll take the info with a bit of a grain of salt (while also appreciating the reports and generally accepting your take).
Regardless of where he’s at as a player though, if he is the #8D then I guess preparing for him potentially playing games is the right thing to do. ‘Big trouble’ or not, it’s better to be as prepared as you can be. (maybe he’s up to practice with the team and get comfortable with the systems more than anything)
So a question. Of the healthy D in Bakersfield on NHL contracts (I guess just Demers, Kemp and Dinnen), how would you rank them as injury replacements for this years playoffs?
1-Demers over Kemp on experience alone, but extremely sheltered and low minutes. He is a slow skater
2-Kemp next man up, not as much concrete in his boots, but I would be loathe to have him start his 1st NHL game in the playoffs. But he could surprise, but his puck moving ability is a concern for me at the next level.
3-Dineen, he has played NHL games and he passes and skates okay. He can sometimes be an adventure in the D-zone. He hasn’t convinced me that he is a prospect for this franchise.
It will be interesting to see how the organization manages the blueline going into next season. I had thought a Gildon for Lavoie trade would be a savvy move coming into this season, but Gildon has been a number 3 or 4 LD for me this season.
FWIW, For my money Alex Peters, Xavier Bernard (an unsigned Ott pick, childhood teammate of Lavoie, listed at 6’4” (but looks a bit shorter than that) and very smooth skater, traded in an AHL deal for Graham MacPhee) and Cam Dineen (at times) have been more impressive over that last several weeks.
I can see Holland signing Peters, he has earned a contract IMO. I don’t see Gildon being resigned by Florida, so maybe Bakersfield signs him to an AHL deal, but he doesn’t rate an NHL deal. And I can see an AHL deal for Bernard.
If I am the Oilers I don’t re-sign Dineen or Kaldis and I go hard after undersized RHD from Quinnipac, Zach Metsa. I think he is the real deal, as offensive Dman, with all-around abilities.
Oilers Playoff Death March:
Rules:
1 – how many games do the Oilers win during these playoffs?
tie break
2 – how many points do Leon+Connor score combined?
tie break
3 – How many goals does Evander Kane score?
Hunter1909 plays Playoff “deathmarch”
1 – 16
2 – 57
3 – 12
Deadline 1st game of the playoffs – puck drop.
Long live Prince Nuge, was under total belief someone was going to get him at over 7 plus per season, then baam Ken has him coming in under 6.
They’ll never be another 93.
Was saying imo the Oilers needed 2 top 4 defenders to be considered serious in early January. Ekholm arrives, and now the Oilers are boasting 3 top pairing defenders, an reemerging Ceci, a strong looking Kulak and Andre the Giant. Seems evolution can happen in the blink of an eye.
I’d like to see a strong 180 mins of hockey going into hosting Winnipeg for some demon slaying.
Prospecting!
Skyler Brind’Amour and his Quinnipiac Bobcats comprise 25% of tonight’s Frozen Four. They are up against the Michigan Hugh Jackmans, led by likely #2 overall pick Adam Fantilli and highly-regarded Joisey prospect Luke Hughes.
Winner of this match will play the winner of the BU/Minnesota semi, currently being led 2-1 after one by the Gophers of Gold.
QUI/MICH drops at 6:30 p.m. Morningside time.
Go Hugh Jackmans!
Cale Makar out indefinitely (LBI) with no timeline for return.
His style of play just screams injury. I don’t think our Paul Coffey has anything to be worried about when it comes to career points.
I don’t agree. He’s actually extremely slippery. I watched the Avs a lot last playoffs and he never seemed to take a hit on puck retrievals or almost ever. He’s certainly the first player on the Avs you’d want to wear down in a series.
I don’t know anything about his injury this season, but I’d imagine the processor is running a little slower after the unfortunate Carter hit.
The NHL should protect its stars.
If I’m Woody I would be dumping it into Makar corner and pound him. Do not give Makar space or time Kane, Kostin Bjugstad and Foegele all have speed and can wear down Makar in a 7 game series
They could but it doesn’t seem like our coaches do that much
Before someone else we know posts this….Of note or fun fact: The Colorado Avalanche have a record of 12-3-1 without Makar this year.
Hopefully those 3 losses and 1 overtime loss come all at once in the first round and they never get a chance at those 12 wins.
That’s what happens when you have Byram, Toews and Girard singing backup.
Is Girard any good? I haven’t watched very much of him, every time I seem to notice him he’s Jultzing and getting burned…I assume he’s high offense, shit defense?
Not on the same level as the others but he can certainly move the puck.
It’s quite remarkable, he’s managed to be a negative GF% defenseman on the Avalanche the last 2 years.
If you look at relative GF% Girard is the actual worst D in the league in that span.
Consistent too, he was bottom 15 in both seasons.
Wow, the 3rd best player in the conference is on the shelf. That could be a very big story in the weeks to come.
He came back for a game and played well through the injury.
He will be back for the playoffs.
Source? Don’t see this reported in TSN or Sportsnet.
Avalanche beat reporter Kyle Fredrickson.
#Avs Cale Makar and Darren Helm are out tonight again in San Jose, per Jared Bednar. He added they are new injuries (lower body) and not maintenance from previous health issues. He does not have a return timeline for either player.
https://twitter.com/kylefredrickson/status/1644051605124452352?s=61&t=WWzo5XOO0SDsOISFpfGKMg
I believe MADOIL meant the part about being back for the playoffs.
There is this one narrative that I keep hearing/reading that I’ve been meaning to post about as I’m not sure I agree.
When discussing 11/7 vs. 12/6, one of the main benefits that’s generally offered up regarding 11/7 is it provides Woody with the “ability” to get McDavid and Drai out more and do a little more “mixing and matching” with unique combinations.
I understand that premise as, when there are 12 forwards, its standard to run lines but that doesn’t have to be the case. Every single line combination that Woody would use in the 11/7 is available to him in the 12/6.
Of course, one doesn’t want that 12th forward just sitting on the bench and playing 3 or 5 minutes in a game but, really, that’s no worse for that player than sitting in there press box.
You don’t want to just waste that 12th forwarded not have the options available that 7D provides, I get it, but, at the same time, even if there are 12 forwards on the bench, Woody can throw any combination out there he wants at any time – variably while running 4 lines generally, or more often if he wants.
Its not a big point but where I read/heard that 11/7 “affords Woody more options”, I don’t think that’s really the case.
When first introduced by Woody, an argument could be made that it was about managing the defence corps. With more rookies, less depth, there were many instances of an individual playing an off game.
The other thing that occurred was that for a time there Woody wanted Connor and Leon out so much the 4th line got very little icetime as Woody was rolling three lines. By double shifting top two centers Woody got more talent out and at least the 4th line wingers were rotated in. Those two fouth line wingers were also PK. Anyway, sacrificing the one 4th liner allowed more icetime across the board, more talent out, and steady penalty killers.
The option then comes as more d man options, as you are right, all forward options are still covered in 12/6
Someone less lazy than I should look up the TOI/G for the 10-11 forwards in the 11/7 vs. The 12/6. Because your point makes sense in my head if it actually plays out that way.
I know that we’d rather have top 6 players on rather than the 4th line, but the 4th line will be more effective with 10 mins/g rather than 5. That keeps them in a rhythm. At least that’s my belief.
Again, someone could use facts to disprove that.
it still gives woodcroft more options since there are 7th defencemen; it mandates he runs top 6 centres with bottom line forwards
7 defencemen should afford more options on defence, but it doesn’t since Broberg barely plays anyhow lol
I understand that it takes away options on the back-end but that’s not the verbal that we (or at least I) continually here/read.
When I hear people discussing 11/7 vs. 12/6 invariably one of the benefits of 11/7 put forth is the options it provides for forward deployment but it really doesn’t. All those options are there in 12/6 (there are less defence deployment options but that’s not the agreement made).
Sure, I mean if this is coming from Oilers Twitter, it’s not the brightest crowd
11/7 does give options (in my opinion sub-optimal ones) with the options, but yeah not sure how one logically or mathematically says taking a forward away gives more options up front
Its not just coming from Oilers twitter – its coming from many on the radio as well – Shawn Belle last night and many of the hosts/producers/guests on the various shows.
I hear it all the time.
I get that all the permutations are still there but does he? Does Woodcroft use as many different forward combinations with 12/6 over 11/7? There is a big difference between could and does.
It’s situation specific … last night Woody wanted to do some in-game load management with McDavid and Draisaitl … so 12 forwards get dressed and they rolled 4 lines all night. But we also want Broberg to get some playing time to keep him fresh for the playoffs … so 7 defenseman get dressed on other nights. But we also don’t want the 12th and 13th forwards to get stale … so 12 forwards might be deployed for that reason.
It really depends on Woody’s specific game plan from game to game, along with managing the ebbs and flows of a long 82 game season. I like the innovation, and the record when deploying 11-7 since Woody started doing it last year speaks for itself.
I don’t disagree. He doesn’t tend to use them when he dresses 12 forwards but he absolutely has the option to. What the argument is made that someone likes 11/7 because if gives Woody the option of double shifting McDavid/Drai though different combos, etc., it just doesn’t see true to me. He can do that any time he wants.
In the playoffs if you want to play with tempo for a lot of games that are more intense I think you need 4 lines that you can play
It’s tiring. Especially if they are also playing a physical game. Lots of skating and energy spent
That’s a fine and fair argument but it doesn’t speak to the topic that I’m discussing – this, in my opinion, fake narrative that dressing 11 forwards gives more forward deployment options than dressing 12
It does, indirectly to me. But really it’s math right? Given the two groups are completely distinct, it is extremely rare that players are in both groups
So by logic, more forwards means more forward options and more defenseman means more defense options. The coaches aren’t obligated to play all of the available players
Yes, agree, kind of my point.
Going with 11/7 doesn’t give the coach the ability to deploy the forwards in certain ways that 12/6 doesn’t afford – which is a generally cited narrative.
Whether its coached or natural it does appear that the team has gone into a playoff prep mode.
They have shown up for the important games with high intensity and focus. The lesser teams they are dialed back. The two points are the goal, the next goal is an injury free game.
For playoff teams, the hits are an investment. For non playoff teams the hits are are a risk and they dialed it back.
McDavid dialed it back in my opinion. He reached his milestone and now is pacing himself. Drai went hard for that hatrick, now pacing. Coach is playing bottom 6 more it seems to my eye. Hopefully JP doesn’t pull numbers on me.
The score last night looked close but I didnt think the win was ever in doubt. Some smart hockey being played and coached.
It does look like the next team milestone is the division title. If Vegas fumbles the Oil will capitalize.
Dear Nuge,
You are all that and a bag of chips,
Loves ya
Does anyone know where to go for stats that track position as well? In specific our host has mentioned he sees Hyman better on the left wing. I would like to see those splits and dmen who play both sides.
It’s not publicly tracked anywhere, but you could look at results of wowy data if you know who they play with.
i.e. like Nurse Ekholm playing together.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php
I (sort of) called it. After the playoffs last year, when Nugent-Hopkins scored big goals and big assists in big games, that he would be somewhat liberated as a player. And that his performance in the playoffs was the most satisfying thing about last season.
I think liberated is a great word. As they team grew at each position there was just more help. More help on the forecheck, in the corners, backcheck, turning over pucks…etc. Even moving to the wing has helped. Nuge has reverted back to goal scorer. More opportunistic, getting in position, and getting shots away, as opposed to always chasing pucks or defending for the last umpteen years.
Kostin has more to give … maybe a lot more. Not sure it will be with the Oil, but someone is going to get a very good player.
He is our property as an rfa, not sure he goes anywhere. Tough to find a goal scoring bottom 6 winger that fights and has a great attitude.
That’s because the player you describe does not fit the description of a bottom six winger. Scoring wings that are high effort, are agitators, can fight and have great attitude end up in the middle six or better, assuming you can even find one. Basically what we hoped Jesse could be. Not sure Klim gets that opportunity here. Not sure the Oil can afford the Yamo/Jesse money it will cost if he does.
What will be the price range estimate to keep Kostin? 2.5 to 3m you are guessing? Curious.
Certainly he looks like a player who has found a home, looks like he would want to deal.
2.5 to 3, wow. I don’t see it with the cap not going up and no arbitration rights. I picture a McLeod scenario for contract talks.
Kostin is Arbitration Eligible according to Capfriendly, he signed at 18, and has completed 4 pro-seasons….$2M-$3M sadly
There is no way Kostin is getting a 2 million plus contract. Remember this is a guy who passed through waivers early this season.
And healthy scratched not so long ago either.
He hasn’t yet proven he’s an every day player. He has to earn a bigger payday. Also it’s time Kenny applies an opposite Edmonton tax – this is the most exciting and talented team in the league since forever
Do you want to be a part of that, a part of history, or are you chasing a payday?
I have a hard time seeing 2.5-3. Love the guy, but it’s unlikely he finishes the season with more than 23 point. Similar point total/pace to Foegele’s last year as a ‘cane but with a lot less history to back it up.
I imagine a Kostin deal ends up looking like 1.4 x 1 or maybe 1.6 x 2.
Ok in regards to money there will be enough, he will likely get a 2 year deal around 1 to 1.25 million this off season. Then in 2 years if he has moved into a 2nd line wingers role then money will be found. The cap could go up as much as 10 million by then.
As to opportunities he is already being moved around enough to give that. Kostin played 288 min so far with none of the 100 point boys. He also played 242 with one of them as his center so essentially half his toi has been on a scoring line.
Having guys like this as bottom 6 that can rotate up is depth.
This sounds reasonable, and affordable to me.
He’s currently at $750k, has no arb rights. They can either qualify him at base +10% or do what they did w/McLeod. While $1-1.25 million seems reasonable, the Oilers cap situation for next season won’t be an easier and Bouchard is due a long-term extension or a bridge.
Kostin won’t be getting anything close to that money next season though.
I think he’ll be in the $1.5MM max – and that’s if he scores a few big playoff goals.
Agreed. My concern is opportunity next year and $$ the following year. Don’t want to lose this player. Could slot into the Kane role when Kane is no longer Kane.
Doesn’t fit the description of a bottom six winger but does fit the description of a middle six winger? Seems like a complicated way of saying he isn’t a 4th line player.
Guilty as charged.
I’d be tempted to sign him long-term at a cheap rate. He has flown under the radar for a lot of years with what seems like little opportunity in STL. We may have a huge steal on our hands. He does have a pretty good pedigree. Drafted 31st overall in 2017, led World Juniors in pts/gp (5g, 3a, 8ts in 5gp) in 2017-18, and was one of the best Russian forwards in their system for a couple of years along with Svechnikov, Denisenko, Kravtsov, and Podkolzin. He’s big, he’s fast, he seems like a good teammate. He’s willing to go to the corners and drop the gloves. H’es shown pretty decent hands, too. I find myself often thinking, “that was a smart play” when watching him. I wonder how much it would cost to take him all the way to UFA status? Is that a 4 year contract?
Impressively, he’s scoring at a 17-goal pace with bottom 6 linemates but also bottom 6 competition. In my opinion, he’s definitely earned a spot in the top 9, if not a look-see in the top 6. Crazy?
Not at all. Players with more goals than assists always intrigue me. Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in this game.
I have noticed teams like Dallas seem to draft players especially wingers with size and close to 50/50 G to A
And we envy them, at least previously. Scorers and shooters
I seem to recall the rumours that Chiarelli was looking to trade RNH for Matt Dumba. While Dumba did have 4 straight seasons with 10+ goals, he has fallen off a lot in the last 4 seasons and only has 14 points in 75 games this year. That trade wouldn’t have aged very well (unlike Hall-Larsson).
Yeah, I think trading him for Seth Jones would have been a better bet (even if Jones has maybe fallen off a bit).
But I’m glad we have Nuge right now. In the end, it’s good that we stuck with him.
So I feel better after looking at some goalie and team goal differential. Right now the Bruins are at plus 120 goals and oil at plus 56. If we want to look at just the teams and expected goals, the Oilers are minus 14 in xgaa. The Bruins are a plus 64. So if each team had average goaltending the oil would sit at 64 and Boston at 56.
The 2 teams are alot closer in talent and ability than I realized. Also playoffs are a different beast with none of the 4 goalies having any success in the post season.
I’ve been saying for like 6-8 weeks now that its reasonable to suggest that the Oilers goal differential and regulation win total puts them in a different tier than some of the other teams that had similar point totals.
When the Kraken and flames were somewhat close points wise, I had suggested this and its proven true.
Is it true with the Kings and Knight? Maybe.
Unfortunately the ability to tend goal is a talent as well! Much like the year BOS won the cup, their forwards have high end shooting talent (as do the Oilers) and their goalies are saving everything.
Oh so happy for Nuge, heart still aftershock bursting this morning. Extra warming watching teammates, coaches and staff celebrating him. Somewhere MacT must be smiling too.
Boil-in-the-Oil
October 24, 2022 9:07 pm
Mark my words … this season will finally seal the argument and Nuge will have/display that “drafted-number-1-overall” level of performance. He’s always been very good & super skilled, but hasn’t really broken through to live up to the high expectations of a #1 pick. This is his year.
Not intending to be boastful, but I (like many of us) saw this becoming Nuge’s season… not sure I saw 100+ points though!
I have no problems with people revisiting their past predictions. (Who else is going to unearth your old comment?) Boast away! I’m glad you were correct.
The only old comments that get dug up are the troll Variety.
Who’s winning the Masters this year
My crystal ball is foggy this morning. I’ll look again tomorrow.
Corey Conners
Koepka.
Oh, you are definitely intending to be boastful but you absolutely have every right to do just that and should. Well done!
Woody I imagine asked the boys to go into Playoff mode with lower event Hockey and a emphasis on D and they’ve responded perfectly. I myself love the wide open 8-5 games in the middle of the long regular season but it’s time to get serious and be ready mentally and physically for the real season.
On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, COL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
Should be “Actual 2-0-0” – correct? Just the fussy me likes to see this awesome team piling up points and trampling the opposition!
LA is in Vegas tonight . A game of interest for Oilers fans. I know where I’m going to be at 8 o’clock.
There was one play in the third period, I can’t remember if the Oilers were up by 2 still or just 1 but Klim had the puck in the offensive zone on the left side and there was a cross-ice offensive play developing. It would have been a dangerous pass that could have been picked off- he saw it but he also recognized the danger and pivoted to play the puck behind the opposition net, the safe play.
That was the “thinking” that isn’t always there with Klim. It was one of my favorite plays of the game.
Actually I am seeing him make quite a few safe smart plays per game. Seems to always get the puck deep. I cheer like hell for him.
He’s also starting to draw a penalty a game again and stopped taking a penalty a game. A big part of his value is his penchant for drawing calls and its been back in recent games – as is his tenacious forecheck.
Here is the problem with NST sometimes – how is that Terry shot not a high danger? I know he came from the side and I guess NST had him lateral to the “scoring zone” but that was a high danger chance every day.
Great game by Jack. I felt he played better than the previous game where he got the shutout. He looked calmer and was swallowing up pucks – very few rebounds.
This is good, very good. Very very very good.
The shot was deflected no?
No – it was a perfect snipe by a RH sniper from his off wing given too much time to walk in and pick his spot. Absolutely was a high danger shot. Nothing Jack could do about it.
I’m not sure if it was deflected. I didn’t think so.
Either way, I would classify it as a high danger chance but NST obviously didn’t if Campbell stopped all the HD chances, right?
might have deflected off Desharnais back, hard to really say
most likely just human error not labelling that as a HD shot, not sure how much more danger would be required
He’s starting to show some gumption, isn’t he? Some Duncan Keith like stick work here and there, and some physicality that I’m not used to seeing. He’s starting to realize that he’s a pretty big dude and strong.
Is he a player that has purposely paced himself during the marathon, readying his body to turn up the physicality for the playoffs? It seems apparent that Woody has kept everyone reasonably well paced, saving ever so little extra gas for the late playoff paydays.
I agree that Nurse had yet another strong game – he’s been good all year and has been exceptional, top 15 d-man, over the last 10 games (apx).
I agree, he’s “not trying to do too much” which is what often leads to those “visible mistakes” that seem over leave lasting memories and, for many, overshadow countless positive impactful plays every game.
I think he is now fully recovered from that hip flexor tear and Darnell Nurse in his prime at 100% mobility is an exceptionally valuable player.
I’m a bit disappointed, LT. I really thought the Golden Nugge photo would be resurrected to celebrate the occasion….
With illusions of someday
Cast in a golden light
I did think about it, hope that helps
Everything you do here has helped for the past couple decades and is greatly appreciated!
Congrats Nuge on two 50 point campaigns in one season!
This team is for real!
Level of concern is sitting at about 1 out of 10 but it’s been a couple of weeks of quiet play-driving from 97. He’s still piling up the points but I think we can all see that he isn’t taking over games like he’s been known to. 56 and 91 couldn’t get much going with him and now it seems that 18/93 are “just ok” after kicking out the jams with 29.
It could be that the cross-check from McCabe is lingering or more likely this is a bit of cruise control.
It could be that cross-check, but it could also be that Connor is pacing himself for the playoffs. Hope its the latter.
In the game against LA, right after the Kings tied it, McDavid turned on the jets and willed that power play into existence. I don’t think there is any concern here, to me, this is all about pacing himself to give it all in the second season.
He looked possessed after that LAK goal.
Respectfully disagree. He took over in LA and carried the team to victory. I get it wasn’t 5 points but that shift after the goal and the ensuing powerplay was simply unstoppable. Nobody else in the world could flip the switch and take over like that imo.
Fair comment. But it’s an 82 game season and even the best athletes will have moments during the season where they have off moments/nights.
The way they’re playing now, I think they are mentally and physically preparing themselves for the road ahead. Can’t wait to see the puck drop on the 2nd season.
In nearly every game the Oil plays, we can count on Connor making a couple of plays that take our breathe away. It could be an end-to-end rush, a quick cut that lets him change the angle and fire a wicked shot on a moving goalie, a heady play to set up or score below the goal line, and so on. No one else really does magical things every game. But for several weeks now, Leon has been doing this very thing with his sublime passing. It seems like every game he makes a pass or two that no one else in the league would even think of making, let alone being able to pull it off. The move down the right wing last night where he put the puck between his skates and gently kicked it over to Kane was amazing. The backhand, no-look sauces passes. The passes from nowhere in traffic that find his teammates in the slot (and often surprise them) are amazing. And so on.
According to Dom’s GSVA model, Leon is 4th with 4.7 GSVA, tied with Fox (4.7) and behind Robertson (5.0), Tkachuk (5.4), and Connor (6.7). It seems pretty clear that Leon was not close to 100% health until recently, so we can only imagine where he would be if he’d been in tip-top shape all year.
Who knows what the playoffs will bring where goalering, reffing, and randomness play such a big role. One thing that tilts the odds are the gamebreakers, and the Oil has the two best in the league right now.
I know I’m biased and I know that the likes of MacKinnon and Makar can be very special when they are on but, in my biased opinion, healthy and engaged peak Drai is second in the NHL only to supernova McDavid – like game 6 vs. LAK last year McDavid.
Healthy, engaged and peak Leon is a very very special player, in my opinion.
I was one calling for Nuge to be traded. OOps.
You had company and I was also down on him a few years ago at the end of his old contract.
He was still too soft, had too little defensive intensity, battle level was mediocre, prone to being also in picture on GA way too often. Wow has that ever changed and I could not be happier for the guy. It’s like he finally saw the level of dedication required in the playoffs last year and came back a man transformed and ready to do whatever it takes to win. He’s way stronger now and battle level has completely changed. Rarely gets pushed around and he’s clearly worked on his shot.
It took until 30 but the old man strength has finally arrived and a good dollop of mental toughness came along for the ride. Good for RNH. Hope he’s an Oiler until his last game.
I don’t think I ever called for Nuge to be traded, per se. But I did wish that Nashville, when they decided to trade Seth Jones for a forward, had accepted our offer of Nuge, instead of accepting Ryan Johansen from Columbus.
Johansen had put up a 30-goal season at age 21, which was irresistible to the Preds. But somebody polled 9 GMs at the time, and 5 said they would have taken Nuge over Johansen. David Poile didn’t make many mistakes, but I’m pretty sure he wishes he had taken Nuge instead.
Getting Seth Jones would have shored up our defense at a time when we desperately needed it. (I think Mark Fayne was our #3 at the time). But I’m very happy to have Nuge right now.