This is a huge game for both the Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings, with a great deal still up in the air in terms of lines and pairings. Normally the coaches have revealed their preferred matchups and we have an idea about what the game will look like, but I think 97-29 may come out of the gates as a line tonight. What does that mean? It means a lot of pressure for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan McLeod and Nick Bjugstad.
The real truth though, is that two giants skate on Rogers ice tonight, and will bring with them true greatness and a sense of history, sense of the moment. This blog is many words today, but the previous runaway sentence is the truth and the light.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Oilers should stay the course no matter what happens against Kings
- DNB: How Zach Hyman capped Oilers’ season-saving comeback
- Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
- DNB: Oilers need secondary scoring to get back into series
- Lowetide: Key early Oilers vs. Kings matchups that are impacting the series
- DNB: Oilers’ playoff excitement, expectations have already given way to Game 1 pain again
- Lowetide: How winning the Stanley Cup would change the Oilers organization
- DNB: Connor McDavid, the NHL’s best player, has ‘freed his mind’: Will an Oilers Stanley Cup follow?
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
A REQUEST
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TONIGHT
I would run Stuart Skinner, seven defensemen and sprinkle 97-29 in as needed. Ideally the club runs with McDavid, Draisaitl, Bjugstad and McLeod up the middle. I’d like to see Warren Foegele have a lash at some point on one of the skill lines.
The key for this series so far five-on-five is Draisaitl. He is outscoring everything but the anthem, even when the expected goals lag. This isn’t an unusual situation for 29, his actual goal share often outruns the expected. Here are the most common lines for the Oilers this playoff series, goals totals, and expected goal share. All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman: 25 mins, 0-1 goals, 71 pctexpected
- Kane-McDavid-Hyman: 21 mins, 0-1 goals, 47 pct expected
- Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 20 mins, 1-1 goals, 57 pct expected
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 18 mins, 0-1 goals, 53 pct expected
- Foegele-McLeod-Bjugstad: 14 mins, 0-0 goals, 55 pct expected
- Foegele-McLeod-Ryan: 10 mins, 0-0 goals, 84 pct expected
- Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl: 10 mins, 1-1 goals, 55 pct expected
- Kostin-Bjugstad-Janmark: 7 mins, 0-0 goals, 77 pct expected
- Kostin-Draisaitl-Ryan: 4 mins, 2-0 goals, 78 pct expected
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman: 3 mins, 2-0 goals, 28 pct expected
I think the key takeaways are all the elite talent thrives when played with each other, and that Nuge is being moved around swiftly. I would probably run the lines that are underlined, to be honest. Janmark being unavailable is an issue, not sure how the coaching staff constructs a workaround. Will we see Dylan Holloway? It’s difficult to just drop him into this series and expect results, but if Kostin is injured, Holloway brings plenty of speed and determination. Once again I wonder about Yamamoto. Young man needs some pucks to go in the net.
Defensively, I think we’re seeing the changing of the guard on the top pairing. When Ken Holland acquired Mattias Ekholm, it was clear the organization felt acquisitions of Mike Green, Dmitri Kulikov, Duncan Keith and even Brett Kulak weren’t enough to hold back the water. Here are the numbers for the main partnerships against LAK:
- Ekholm-Bouchard: 17:10 mins/game, 2-2 goals, 51 pct expected
- Nurse-Ceci: 14:15 mins/game, 2-1 goals, 53 pct expected
- Kulak-Desharnais: 9:38 mins/game, 0-1 goals, 61 pct expected
- Nurse-Broberg: 2:28 mins/game, 2-1 goals, 74 pct expected
- Kulak-Broberg: 1:47 mins/game, 0-0 goals, 100 pct expected
- Nurse-Kulak: 1:27 mins/games, 0-0 goals, 78 pct expected
I would run the underlined pairings, but dress Desharnais. I think the Ekholm-Bouchard tandem is going to stretch out over this series and what may come, emerging as the No. 1 duo over the piece. I would start Stuart Skinner. His calm demeanor and consistency have been key for Edmonton, and the Oilers aren’t going to come back from 3-0 every night.
CONDORS FORWARDS 2022-23 AND NHLE (FINAL)
Dylan Holloway was impressive. Any player who lands a 30-point NHLE, especially age 21, should have an NHL career. Oilers prospects who have managed it since 2010 include Ryan McLeod (39.9 NHLE age 20, 2020-21), Tyler Benson (38.7 NHLE at age 20 in 2018-19), Cooper Marody (44 NHLE at age 21 in 2018-19), Benson again at 21 (30.5 in 2019-20). None emerged as a pure skill forward in the NHL, with only McLeod establishing himself in the league. It’s also true he played in the pandemic season, so those numbers were skewed. I’m encouraged by Holloway’s AHL time.
Raphael Lavoie is the other player in this group we should discuss as a possible skill option. His 29.4 NHLE at 22 compares to Mark Arcobello (33.7 in 2010-11), Teemu Hartikainen (31.3 in 2012-13), Jujhar Khaira (29.5 in 2016-17). I think Hartikainen could have had a career, and Khaira (336 NHL games) has carved out a career and Arcobello (139) spent parts of four seasons in the league.
CONDORS DEFENSE 2022-23 AND NHLE (FINAL)
Philip Broberg is a young defenseman with a nice range of skills. As an offensive player, he was tracking ahead of Oscar Klefbom until this season. At 21, Klefbom posted .33 pts-game in the NHL and owned an NHLE of 35.4 (in just nine games). Broberg’s NHL season saw him post .17 pts-game in the NHL and 22.8 in seven AHL games. Broberg went 29-26 (52.7 percent) in five-on-five goal share, Klefbom was 40-60 on a far different team. I think Broberg will have a career but we don’t have it surrounded.
Cam Dineen, at 24, has a couple of former Oilers farmhands as comparables. Jordan Oesterle at 24 went 44, 7-25-32 (29 NHLE), while Dineen (in a full season) owns a 27.1 NHLE over the complete 2022-23 season. Brad Hunt was 25 when he arrived in the Edmonton system and posted a strong season (30.2 NHLE). I think Dineen could have a career similar to both men, although the Oilers LH depth chart may meen it’s in another city.
Roadrunner Pizza is it still around how about Belmead Pizza? Anyhow Westender Kelly being a Goalie you would think he could contribute more about a Goalies mindset than a 5 year-old child yet all he comes up with are these word salad observations.
Seattle sure can check they’re the better team so far in this series.
Although I think Holloway will be a good player down the road I wouldn’t insert him into the playoffs this year unless the Oilers get a lot of injuries. I just think he is more than likely to turn the puck over in a bad place than score a goal. Colin Chaulk didn’t exactly give rave reviews that he is an NHL player yet. Sounded like Colin thinks he needs to work on his game before he is an everyday player. Raphael Lavoie on the other hand Chaulk raved about.
Replace Yamo with a streaky Lavoie and we could have the 2nd coming of John Druce.
Wouldya look at that.
Depth scoring shows up and we have ourselves a blowout. That was the most Oilers game of the series.
Nice to see nice to see.
Just need the forwards to tighten up defensively a tad and for Stu to control the rebounds and they’ll be on cruise control.
That 1-3-1 system works fine when you have the lead. But when trailing it completely undermined the Kings tonight. As soon as they lost possession they would fall back outside of the offensive zone and not pressure the puck.
There were a couple of sequences in the last ten minutes when the Oilers could have just feinted exiting from their zone, then fallen back and killed more clock off, and the Kings players wouldn’t have even attempted to regain possession.
I thought the Oilers D did a great job at breaking out of their zone, and gaining the redline just as their forwards were hitting the King’s blueline. Unless the King’s suddenly change tactics in game 6, I think the Oilers have figured out how to break the King’s trap.
The ESPN feed I was watching, the color guy (Dominick Moore I think; Not a fan btw, seemed to have too much love for the Kings) during the last 10 or 15 minutes of the game seemed flabbergasted that the Kings weren’t changing their tactics and commented several times about how there was no way they were going to be able to come back unless they changed some things up.
IiRC, wasn’t that one of the biggest issues we had with flattop when he was coaching the Oilers, lack of being able to adapt to different game situations?
Who benefits most with this layoff? I say LA.
Older. More tired and banged up. I agree. It’s nice they have to sit and think about the last game for extra days, but still. They’d take the extra days of rest every single time.
Jody Shelly was saying on the radio before the game that Korpisalo was looking tired at the end of last game and he was concerned.
And then of course there was Doughty’s gap last game on the Hyman winner. If that was Nurse, he’d still be getting crucified here. But Doughty was too tired to gap up proper.
I expect to see a different Kings team in LA. Spector (as usual) has it wrong. We haven’t broken nobody yet and we won’t till we send them to the teebox.
Calgree f’ing sucks!!!!!!
650 mil from government for the arena project is my guess on today’s reason why the flames suck?
I think this is bullshit. Edmonton didn’t get a cent from the Provincial Government if I recall. Such an obvious Election campaign ploy.
Edmonton should get reimbursed whatever the amount that Calgary gets funded for on their arena.
Or just pay to gas Northlands as a starting point
Obviously Ekholm was the biggest deadline deal in the league and for sure the Oilers but damn Big Nick Bjugstad is a close second. He does a lot things to help us win that goes in noticed
Todd McLellan is disappointed by the team in white
I’m not worried about him. He’s had plenty of experience.
Joking aside, I don’t discount his ability to throw a monkey wrench into the series at any time.
Black and white stripes you mean?
Hrudey with some high praise for Draisaitl “will go down as one of the greatest players in the game”
He included Kopitar in that, so, depending where you think Kopitar dogs, that’s the level of praise..
Gotta love everyone but Nurse and Draisaitl under 20 minutes.
What I loved about this game? We’ll beside the win, the goals, the effort….and
Refs finally on to the Kings. Didn’t bite on a couple of embellishment, they said no way. Then called a BS trip the goalie nonsense.
Nicely executed game
On the one Fiala dive it looked like McDavid had his stick wedged in pretty good– all Fiala’s gotta do is keep moving forward and it would probably be such an obvious hook that the refs would call it even with the Oilers already on the kill. Instead he goes full Neymar and costs both his team the powerplay and himself some credibility. Love to see it.
Great game…..
Besides the gods, you could make a case that Kulak has been one of our better players- period- this series.
Its not about his great goal.
He’s just been a Rock out there.
Yup, combined with last playoffs he’s established himself as a playoff gamer…Holland won’t be trading his salary this offseason.
You don’t notice him at all except when he’s rocketing up the ice for an offensive chance. That’s the perfect number five D-man.
Derek Ryan has also been unbelievable.
69% corsi
75% shots for
3-0 GF
81% xGF%
4th line perfection.
Yes, I think this series should help holland sort some things out in the salary department this summer.
I had a feeling the comeback win in Game 4 would be the turning point of the series. So far, so good.
Finally the 5v5 scoring is coming, and the Kings simply cannot outscore this team. The Oilers are the better team on paper and on ice, when they play their game.
End this series in Los Angeles on Saturday.
Go! Oilers! Go!
Tonight they finally looked like the team that closed out the regular season.
Nice win. Few days off then another battle in LA and hopefully a series win.
There.
They’ve officially played one game as they should.
Keep it up.
If I were more of a gambler I would bet on a Cody Ceci point on Saturday.
Shoulda bet on that happening tonight.
Definitely! I still won’t for Saturday either haha. But he’s buzzing right now. I remember last season he was excellent at looking for friendly sticks that could tip pucks net front. He’s looking healthy and confident.
LET’S GO OILERS!!!
Great game!!
Eat shit, Kings!
Eat shit, Durzi!
Eat shit, Doughty!
Oilers Win. That is all.
Ah you forgot Mikey
And a bag of somin for Danault
I come here for the high-quality posts of our host.
I stay for the high-quality comments of the guests.
big win
a bunch of banged up bodies will appreciate the extra day(s) off
Agree.
Those were some big jugs bouncing they left Louie speechless
I like this Oilers D showing poise and patience with the puck thing. It’s pretty cool. I do not miss having terrible D.
Kostin then Kane- need to be prepared here
Nice of the ref to pin Foegele to the glass while Danault hounds him like a rabid mutt.
I caught Foegele mouthing “do your fucking job” to the linesman who failed to tie up Denault
The NHL couldn’t take away Hyman’s goals with goaltender interference, so they just gave them to somebody else instead.
Bjugstad now credited with the 6-2 goal.
Bjustad stole 2 Hyman goals, lol
Better a teammate than the stripes.
Skinner makes me nervous tonight. Glad the Oilers have six.
Get McDavid and Leon off the ice they’re headhunting.
Feels like they’re trying to get Hyman the Hattie. I’m good with that
After the pp no more 29 or 97.
Now that Hyman has 2 official goals, the fact he isn’t getting credit for Bjustad’s goal is making me even more annoyed.
Score a quick goal. Then spend the rest of the game hammering these guys. Alley time
They just played Stealing time from the faulty plan going into the PP
“Gonna steal time from the faulty plan
Gonna act as though I’m still a man
Gonna give you one last chance to see
Gonna shrug demands off of me
Gonna dream, gonna dream, gonna dream, gonna dream
Dream of being free”
Poetic, no?
Why isn’t Kostin playing this is bullshit start giving it back.
Why didn’t the Oilers play like dirty sore losers when TMac was coaching them?
Put PP1 out there. Run up the score on these wankers.
I like Skinner plenty but good god he gives up some Hail Mary rebounds
Really think it’s the one thing keeping him from being a top goalie.
Bouchard has had a couple of key plus defensive plays tonight.
He seems to be a different player since Ekholm arrived. For the better!
Ekholm a all-star
Yes, though he was quality for a good chunk of last season too before some stumbles earlier this season.
We’re also getting to see far more of the ‘good’ since he’s on PP1 now, and just crushing that.
That last play was solid. Made physical contact with the Kings winger and took the puck away from him next to the Oilers net. I thought it was Desharnais for a second.
I know he’s got dinged for some penalties this series but Bouchard is a big 102 year old player and when he uses his size he is excellent at separating the puck from the offensive player.
Hard player to compare. Maybe Ryan Whitney before the ankle injuries?
His floor was Cody Franson, he’s obviously surpassed that.
Modern day Larry Murphy.
Oilers letting Kings carry the puck around like they want them to score.
Horrible defending lol
Skinner giving up a bunch of “just happy to be here” rebounds.
We’re we just playing 1-3-1 there? lol
Fiala dives. The refs should be calling them for unsportsmanlike. It getting pathetic,
Refs letting him keep taking himself out of the play is enough for me
Arvidsson has flopped at least 5 times the Refs finally got the memo.
McLeod line playing Uber basic hockey and hemming these guys in. Dump it. Chase it. Simple. Effective. Smart.
Yes very impressed with Highlander, Foegele, RNH and Ryan. Great work by all.
Another 5 minutes it’ll be Vincent time.
Much better for Skinner than the Kings, but the goalies in this game collectively have a .795 SV%. Ouch.
Oilers need to show their Killer Instinct(TM).
Mcdavid needs to pay attention to his man. Just watching the guy with the puck in the corner while his man goes to the net and scores. Twice tonight. Bit of a concern.
Just imagine if McDavid could play defensive zone hockey..
And yes, I’m being slightly serious with that. These defensive zone issues with him aren’t exactly new, and are a very odd thing to see with a guy who, at times, is excellent defensively.. and other times looks like a raw rookie.