Game 6 2023 Playoffs: Oilers at Kings

Game 7’s are a sheer heart attack. You are guaranteed a memorable evening, and it’s possible your team wins and then it’s something for the ages. When your team loses? The gap is so wide the mind boggles. Picture Glenn Anderson scoring late in Game 7 1987 to seal the Stanley for the greatest team in history. Now, remember Justin Williams skating down the ice on a breakaway with the goalie on the bench Game 7 2006. That’s a range of emotions.

THE ATHLETIC!

• Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway’s future NHL role?
• Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto playing his final games for Edmonton?
• DNB: Oilers’ Game 5 win had Jay Woodcroft’s coaching instincts all over it
• Lowetide: Oilers should stay the course no matter what happens against Kings
• DNB: How Zach Hyman capped Oilers’ season-saving comeback
• Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
• DNB: Oilers need secondary scoring to get back into series
• Lowetide: Key early Oilers vs. Kings matchups that are impacting the series
• DNB: Oilers’ playoff excitement, expectations have already given way to Game 1 pain again
• Lowetide: How winning the Stanley Cup would change the Oilers organization
• DNB: Connor McDavid, the NHL’s best player, has ‘freed his mind’: Will an Oilers Stanley Cup follow?
• Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

OILERS CENTERS FIVE-ON-FIVE GOAL SHARE THROUGH FIVE GAMES

1. Connor McDavid (0-3)
2. Leon Draisaitl (4-2)
3. 97 and 29 (4-3)
4. Nick Bjugstad (2-0)
5. Ryan McLeod (1-1)
6. The rest (0-1)
7. Total (11-10)

Connor McDavid is 0-0 versus Philip Danault at five-on-five (that’s a win for Danault) over 42 minutes, but 4-4 versus Anze Kopitar in 34 minutes. I imagine Jay Woodcroft will run 97-29 again tonight, that leaves Danault all dressed up with no place to go. In Game 5, 97 was 1-3 goals playing on a line with Draisaitl and Evander Kane. The Kopitar line was 1-2, although McDavid’s trio (barely) won the expected goals.

In Game 4, in Los Angeles, Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl were 1-0 goals with a 70 percent expected goal share (all of these numbers five-on-five and via Natural Stat Trick). Also in that game, Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman were 2-0 goals in just over three minutes. McDavid saw the Kopitar line 14:30 five-on-five in Game 4 (road game for Edmonton) and won the goal share 3-0. Fascinating game within the game, we’ll see what Todd McLellan brings to the chess match tonight.

A CONVERSATION

1. How are you feeling about tonight? The Oilers won the last two games to take a 3-2 lead in the series. I’m not sure the Kings have an answer and they looked a step slow in the last game. What’s more, Joonas Korpisalo has gone from being the story of the series to a guy who got pulled in a pivotal game. His save percentages in all disciplines, by game, are .925, .917, .950, .881 and .789.
2. Will the Oilers win tonight? I think Edmonton wins it, but the LAK are going to come out strong in the first period and the Oilers will have to weather a storm for sure. If they’re down by a goal or less after one period, suspect the road team wins the day.
3. What are the major strengths for Edmonton? Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jay Woodcroft and his staff, three pairings humming, veteran wingers Evander Kane and Zach Hyman are scoring now, power play, great depth, a strong third line, and goaltending that has stood up through five games.
4. What are the major weaknesses for Edmonton? I don’t think there’s a major weakness, honestly. Areas that could be a concern are coverage related, but the Kings have that problem, too. Let me put it this way: defending Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar, Viktor Arvidsson and Gabriel Valardi isn’t easy. You better pack a lunch because it’s going to take you all day. Danault, Alex Iafallo and Kevin Fiala are good, too. The Kings are a fine team.
5. Who do you blame? Rob Vollman. Kings have been drafting extremely well since he got there.
6. What is most pleasing to you so far in this series? The number of players contributing on offense. At five-on-five, there are 16 skaters with points. Only Kailer Yamamoto, Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais have zero points.
7. What player is standing out in a good way? There are a few who have impressed. Nick Bjugstad, Warren Foegele, Brett Kulak.
8. Who needs to increase the volume? I think Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been a bit unlucky but also a tad quiet. I love his game, and suspect the points will come. Small samples are the devil to read. Kailer Yamamoto isn’t performing well, but a goal somewhere in here might ignite him again. The Oilers will need Yamamoto before this run is done, hopefully he can find a way.
9. Are players playing their way into a more secure position for next season? Yes, I think so. Kulak is one player who has shown how valuable he is to the club. Foegele too, in my opinion.
10. Who is still vulnerable? The cap will be an issue, so I’ll list Yamamoto and Jack Campbell.
11. Some are disappointed Raphael Lavoie hasn’t been recalled. I think he’ll eventually get the call, but don’t think he will play this spring. Ken Holland slow plays prospects, so if you’re a fan that has to be considered. Whereas Broberg and Holloway would be NHL regulars by now under previous administrations, and Lavoie/Philp/Bourgault would already have NHL games on their resume, this group keeps their powder dry on inexperienced players.
12. That’s terrible! Actually, I think there is a method the madness. It increases the talent pool, we’re seeing that now with Holloway. He could help, I think he might be an upgrade, but it’s also risky to throw him in the deep end.
13. So what happens in the fall? My guess is that Holloway breaks camp as No. 3 LW, with Warren Foegele and Klim Kostin pushing him. No. 2 RW is open for business and Holloway could move in there (possibly as a LW, meaning the top two lines might be Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl and Holloway-Nuge-Hyman).
14. You’ve already flushed Yamamoto. I haven’t, the die have yet to be cast, but the trend suggests it. For the first time in his career, Yamamoto isn’t covering his bet. The Oilers had six forwards over 2.00 pts-60 this season, and Evander Kane was close (1.96). Yamamoto posted 1.53, and the truth is that total rhymes with his prevous season, the year he scored 20. I’m not picking on Yamamoto, but am pointing out a roster inefficiency. There’s a difference.
15. You loved Yamamoto in 2019-20, now this. You sure turn on people, man. Character flaw. Sad. Nonsense. Yamamoto was a splendid draft pick, just outstanding. He has played in 244 NHL games, and another 27 in the playoffs. In the regular season, per 82 games, he is 17-23-40. Solid numbers, but when you’re playing with elite centers and pulling down $3.1 million a year, that’s not enough. There are more productive, less expensive, players in the lineup.
16. What about 2019-20? He posted a 3.16 pts-60 at five-on-five to lead the team. He was one of two pure wingers (Zack Kassian) to post 2+ pts-60 in the discipline. This is a more talented roster.
17. Can Yamamoto turn it around? He can, but the cap hit will hurt him this summer. Men like Warren Foegele (2.09-60), Klim Kostin (2.02), Ryan McLeod (1.86) have been more productive while playing without 97 or 29. I think a strong postseason would be vital for Yamamoto, just as it is for Foegele, Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak and Jack Campbell.
18. Do the Oilers win tonight? I think they do, but the Boston Bruins are going to a Game 7.
19. That hurts you deeply. I’m glad. Much of this season has reminded me of the 1970-71 Boston Bruins, that team was my favourite as a kid. They won Stanley in 1970 and 1972, and were more of a powerhouse in 1971, but Ken Dryden put it all to rest. Stuff happens. And that 1971 Bruins team reminds me of both this year’s Bruins and this year’s Oilers.
20. Why the Oilers? They are ridiculous offensively, led the league in goals and are silly good on the power play. This year’s Oilers aren’t the team the 1971 Bruins were, or the 2023 Bruins are, but there are similar things.
21. Are there any rookies on the opening night roster 2023-24? Yes.
22. Who? Raphael Lavoie is my guess. Maybe Noah Philp too, or instead.