The Edmonton Oilers are going to need some of the remaining prospects in the pipeline to spike in order to feed the need for value contracts, and to have enough tradeable assets to be competitve at the deadline. I’ve expressed quiet amazement that the organization isn’t signing college, junior and European free agents, but there’s plenty of time. Since we have a few minutes here, let’s look at some of the names who could be ready to push for NHL time in the fall of 2024.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers 2022-23 predictions revisited
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
- DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
NHL-READY OR CLOSE FOR 2024-25
- LW Maxim Berezkin will be a free agent in the KHL next spring, and that’s a possible window for him to come over to North America. It’s anyone’s guess as to how much the Russian league has slipped from previous levels, but his numbers (64 games, 9-22-31 including playoffs) in 2022-23 suggest he can contend for NHL work. He’s 6.02, 216, a bull and has good hands. He could be a nice replacement for Reid Schaefer on the organization’s pro depth chart.
- RW Xavier Bourgault will probably be the No. 1 prospect in the system when I rank them after the draft. His AHL boxcars (62 games, 13-21-34, .55 pts-game) reflected an uneven offensive season but there’s a lot of talent here. His range of skills impressed me and he has great hands. Bourgault doesn’t get touches as often as Dylan Holloway did as a rookie, but he has some wizardry with the puck. Another year in Bakersfield and he should push for an NHL job in the fall of 2024.
- LW Matvey Petrov posted two strong seasons in the OHL and is now ready for pro hockey. His NHLE leads all Oilers prospects who played in 2022-23 and there are high hopes for this player. He posted 27-66-93 in 65 OHL games, that’s the finest junior league in the world. The Oilers have a promising prospect, important to get him minutes and develop him. Xavier Bourgault’s estimated ice time (all disciplines) in 2022-23 (15:14) is about where Petrov should be this coming season. Tyler Tullio (12:08) and Carter Savoie (10:56) estimates suggest they should have played more, and certainly Petrov needs to be in the mix for top-six EV time and PP time at some point in 2022-23.
- LW Carter Savoie averaged (estimated) 1.06 pts-60 at even strength in 2022-23. The best number he posted was (estimated) goals-60 at even strength (.66) and it’s something to build on. Savoie was injured so early in camp, and then never caught up, year one pro was close to a wasted season. He has real goal-scoring talent, it’s important not to underestimate his potential.
- RW Tyler Tullio had a 1.76 (estimated) pts-60 at even strength, and played well at even strength as a rookie pro. There’s not as much ceiling to his game as (say) Bourgault, but there’s a clarity in his performance that shines through and may well give him the edge over his more famous teammate. Extremely unlikely to see NHL action in 2023-24, I think he’ll be on the radar one year from now.
- RD Max Wanner hasn’t played one game in the AHL, so it’s a stretch to suggest he’ll be close to NHL ready one year from now. What I can say is that he’s absolutely the most promising defenseman in the system, with a slight edge on Nikita Yevseyev. I’m looking forward to seeing him play this fall, vital he has a strong mentor.
Men like Raphael Lavoie, Noah Philp, Phil Kemp and Olivier Rodrigue aren’t included on this list because their time is now. Each man should be pushing for the NHL this season. Here are the complete NHLE’s for Edmonton’s prospect pool.
Honestly, the AHL star is Raphael Lavoie and the rest of the top end played in Russia and Ontario last season. That is not to discount the accomplishments of other names here, history tells us we should be trumpeting Tyler Tullio. He is the one who has the skill set that most closely matches Fernando Pisani, Daniel Cleary and Jason Chimera. The minor leagues rarely produce future NHL 40-goal scorers (good morning, Walt Poddubny) but has sent many productive players to the NHL.
For the 2023-24 season, names like Cam Dineen, Phil Kemp and Markus Niemelainen will be of interest for possible NHL time (Vincent Desharnais is already there). For 2024-25, Max Wanner is the obvious name, maybe Ryan Fanti forces his way into the conversation. Luca Munzenberger remains an international man of mystery, as gathering information on college shutdown blue is akin to pissing in the wind.
ESTIMATED EVEN-STRENGTH PTS-60
I posted a couple of these numbers above, might as well run them all. This is estimated even-strength points per 60 minutes based on Eric Rodgers’ estimates. It’s fascinating to see, because you get an idea about how much (or little) the prospects played last year.
- Dylan Holloway 2.5 estimated ES pts-60; .83 pts-game; 14:01 ES TOI-G
- Raphael Lavoie 2.41 estimated ES pts-60; .74 pts-game; 13:54 estimated ES TOI-G
- Noah Philp 2.04 estimated ES pts-60; .53 pts-game 13:00 estimate ES TOI-G
- Tyler Tullio 1.76 estimated ES pts-60; .41 pts-game; 11:23 estimated ES TOI-G
- Luke Esposito 1.68 estimated ES pts-60; .32 pts-game; 11:10 estimated ES TOI-G
- Seth Griffith 1.63 estimated ES pts-60; .83 pts-game; 17:21 estimates ES TOI-G
- Brad Malone 1.64 estimated ES pts-60; .51 pts-game; 15:11 estimated TOI-G
- Justin Bailey 1.56 estimates ES pts-60; .55 pts-game; 13:13 estimated ES TOI-G
- Xavier Bourgault: 1.47 estimated ES pts-60; .55 pts-game; 13:12 estimated ES TOI-G
- James Hamblin 1.21 estimated ES pts-60; .54 pts-game; 18:05 estimated ES TOI-G
- Greg McKegg 1.16 estimated ES pts-60; .30 pts-game; 12:31 estimated ES TOI-G
- Dino Kambeitz 1.13 estimated ES pts-60; .22 pts-game; 9:14 estimated TOI-G
- Tyler Benson 1.07 estimated ES pts-60; .53 pts-game; 17:05 estimated ES TOI-G
- Carter Savoie 1.06 estimated ES pts-60; .25 pts-game; 10:16 estimated ES TOI-G
Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie and Noah Philp are the stars here, and we of course have to acknowledge the limitations of estimating ice time. The biggest takeaway for me is Tyler Tullio. Why didn’t they play him more? Bourgault represented the final true contributor offensively on this list, surprised genuinely by Luke Esposito’s showing here.
PENNANTS
- Montreal (12): ’68, ’69, ’71, ’73, ’76-’79, ’86, ’89, ’93, ’21
- Boston (10): ’70, ’72, ’74, ’77, ’78, ’88, ’90, ’11, ’13, ’19
- Philadelphia (8): ’74, ’75, ’76, ’80, ’85, ’87, ’97, ’10
- Edmonton (7): ’83, ’84, ’85, ’87, ’88, ’90, ’06
- Pittsburgh (6): ’91, ’92, ’08, ’09, ’16, ’17
- Chicago (6): ’71, ’73, ’92, ’10, ’13, ’15
- Detroit (6): ’95, ’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ’09
- New Jersey (5): ’95, ’00, ’01, ’03, ’12
- Tampa Bay (5): ’04, ’15, ’20, ’21, ’22
- Dallas (5): ’81, ’91, ’99, ’00, ’20
- New York Islanders (5): ’80, ’81, ’82, ’83, ’84
- New York Rangers (4): ’72, ’79, ’94, ’14
- Los Angeles (3): ’93, ’12, ’14
- Calgary (3): ’86, ’89, ’04
- St. Louis (4): ’68, ’69, ’70, ’19
- Vancouver (3): ’82, ’94, ’11
- Colorado (3): ’96, ’01, ’22
- Anaheim (2): ’03, ’07
- Buffalo (2): ’75, ’99
- Carolina (2): ’02, ’06
- Florida (2): ’96, ’23
- Washington (2): ’98, ’18
- Vegas (2): ’18, ’23
- Nashville (1): ’17
- San Jose (1): ’16
- Ottawa (1): ’07
- Atlanta-Winnipeg
- Columbus
- Minnesota
- Phoenix
- Seattle
- Toronto
I’ve long believed that pennant winners should be celebrated. The Oilers 2006 team mattered, deserves to be remembered. The pennant does that, and congratulations to the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
The SC final is set, and the two pennant winners (Florida and Vegas) have never won. That’s exciting! We’ll talk about it 10-2 today on TSN1260. NBA finals, CFL, maybe some soccer, too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Given that cap circumvention is now the name of the game for Cup finalists, it seems pretty obvious what Kenny needs to do.
Nurse pulls up lame with a mysterious and difficult to diagnose lower body ailment that keeps him out from 1 week before the trade deadline until Game 1 of the playoffs. At the deadline, Holland deals a minimum $2,25M cap hit and a bevy of picks and/or prospects for Erik Karlsson.
If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying!
What about one week from now, now that most players have both cleaned out their lockers and had a week or two of beach/beer? I’m curious if there is any consistently successful technique players on the bubble have deployed over the course of one last summer to establish themselves at training camp. And, likewise, what did McDavid and Draisaitl do last summer push their ceilings ever higher?
An Erik Karlsson acquisition still fascinates me. As much as I keep digging in regarding how to improve this team, I keep landing on EK65 50% retained as a pairing with Nurse and with a Mayfield addition as the 3RD on a pairing with Broberg. Remember that Karlsson holds the cards here.
Does he want to follow-up his historic season on another horrible team, or does he want to share the ice with the top players on the planet? What does he want to leave as his legacy, that is the question.
In looking at his teammates over the years, the top goal scorer on any of his teams, when he had an above average season had 35 goals. In fact in that circumstance he’s only had 3 teammates who cracked 30 goals in the 7 seasons he has put up outstanding point totals.
Only ONCE did a teammate crack the 70 point mark in those 7 seasons.
Here is a breakdown:
2011-12
Karlsson 78 points
Spezza 34g/84 pts
Michalek 35/60
Alfredsson 27/59
2013-14
EK 74
Spezza 23/66
Turris 26/58
McArthur 24/55
Ryan 23/48
2014-15
EK 66
Stone 26/64
Turris 24/64
Hoffman 27/48
2015-16
EK 82
Stone 23/61
Hoffman 29/59
Ryan 22/56
Zibanejad 21/51
Zack Smith 25/36
2016-17
EK 71
Hoffman 26/59
Turris 27/55
Stone 22/54
2017-18
EK 62
Stone 20/62
Hoffman 22/56
Duchene 23/49
Dzingel 23/41
2022-23
EK 101
Couture 27/67
Hertl 22/63
Meier 31/52
2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
97 64/153
29 52/128
93 37/104
18 36/83
Think of the possibilities….
@DarrenDreger
We updated the Toronto Maple Leafs GM search earlier tonight Insider Trading. More specifically, all signs now point to the search wrapping up in the very near future with Brad Treliving being named as the new GM.
The gift that keeps on giving.
I think Treleving has been above average in his time with the Flames.
Most recently recovering from absolute disaster.
Only to create an even bigger disaster by signing Huberdeau to an albatross of an extension … that hasn’t even started.
Can’t wait to see him blow up Toronto.
By…. Missing the playoffs!
So another/new/different goalie aging curve(s).
Using the same data set I’ve described (all goalies who played 200+ games between 07-08 and 22-23 – seasons >20 games included – SV% normalized to league average) here is the distribution of seasons by goalie age (on Sept. 25th).
Age #Goalies SV%
20 —– 1 — plus .010
21 —– 3 — plus .004
22 —– 10 — plus .002
23 —– 22 — plus .001
24 —– 27 — minus .001
25 —– 33 — plus .004
26 —– 40 — plus .004
27 —– 46 — plus .004
28 —– 52 — plus .003
29 —– 49 — plus .003
30 —– 44 — plus .003
31 —– 44 — even .000
32 —– 44 — even .000
33 —– 45 — plus .001
34 —– 37 — minus .002
35 —– 31 — even .000
36 —– 21 — minus .006
37 —– 12 — minus .002
38 —– 10 — minus .002
39 —– 9 — even .000
40 —– 5 — plus .004
41 —– 4 — minus .004
42 —– 4 — minus .003
43 —– 1 — plus .006
44 —– 0 —
45 —– 1 — minus .006
Unsurprisingly SV% peaks in the mid/late 20’s. It drops off a few points but remains pretty stable through age 35.
The number of goalies playing in the league is also fairly stable from age 25 through age 35 (>30 goalie seasons for those years).
That would be one curve albeit one that ignores the survivorship bias that occurs when you only see the 30 + year old goalies that are still good enough to play in the league.
I made a far too long post earlier about goalies and what happens after they have a crap season (I used >10 SV% points below league average as ‘crap’).
The Coles Notes version is that those goalies (on average) return to their same level of play (SV%) after the crap season.
The detailed explanation is down in the thread, but I took all 200+ game goalies in the years NST has data (07-08 to present). Got each season’s SV% for those goalies (>20 game seasons), annotated each year with the goalies age, and normalized SV% to the league average for that year.
Goalies between 27 and 35 years old as a group had an identical SV% (relative to league) in the seasons immediately before and after the crap season.
If you break it down by age:
27-29 .002 better after the crap season
30-32 identical before and after
33-35 .002 worse after the crap season
None of the 15 goalies between ages 30-32 fell out of the league/sample after their poor season either (though there were 5/15 goalies between 33-35 goalies did fall out of the league).
So quite surprisingly, this data suggests that having a really crap season means almost nothing about how a goalie will perform going forward (ie – on average they revert to exactly what they were before the poor season). Huh.
I’ve got a more detailed post for your comment below that I am working on. I’m actually at work, so it’s a challenge.
Let’s dumb things down here, for my sake.
Let’s pretend we’re talking about two goalies. Goalie A and Goalie B, okay?
Let’s assuming a league average SV of .910 for the year after the slump for both.
Goalie A plays 20 games with an .888, the following season after a slump.
Goalie B plays 60 games with a .925, the following season after a slump.
Now, we’re pooling the data here, right?
So if we pool the data between these two, we get a .916, right?
So if we did your analysis and there were only two goalies, we’d erroneously proclaim that Jack Campbell’s likely to rebound because, on average, the season after a slump is above league average.
Obviously, you used a larger sample size than two goalies. But the question I have is if you’re pooling data. How do you address the problem of the goalie playing poorly getting cut at 20 games or so and the goalie playing well getting more games inflating the post season slump average save percentage?
Campbell will be fine next season fellas. I am confident he will be a top 10 tender and I predict he will end up with between a 0.913 to 0.923 Save Percentage.
Gut feelings, amiright? 😀😀
So the Panthers are in the final and made no roster moves at the deadline, the most expensive time to make moves
I prefer with a team as good as the Oilers are now to set the roster post season and build the players you develop and chose to acquire. Parachuting guys in I don’t think is the reason teams win cups or stay really strong over time even if it seems like it if they win
You can only buy an Ekholm once unless you can replenish draft capital and not many teams seem to do that. Windows for solid management teams can be self inflicted. The league is as open to new champs more than ever
You’re describing the 2022 Panthers here. Are you forgetting what they spent at the deadline a year ago?
99% sure those assets spent/depleted were directly related to their lack of moves this year, not some superior team building strategy.
But it still speaks to the point that teams which “win” the trade deadline, don’t necessarily to on to win the Cup.
Ekholm on the other hand was a move designed to help now and for several more seasons.
— Someone was saying this was the worst Cup Finals ever. Whether in jest or frustration.
— Make no mistake : by many orders of magnitude the Oilers Carolina Cup was the worst Cup ever , if the criteria is how did those teams do after (or before for that matter) Oilers missed the playoffs 12 of the next 13 years. Carolina 11 of next 12. I think they won one round each in their 25 combined seasons subsequent. By far without question the worst two teams to have met in the finals.
— Neither team qualified the year before (and yes lock out). Carolina the two years prior. Has to be the worst all time in major professional sport in terms of match-up being bad before and after.
— I’d bet my house that never in MLB NBA NHL have two teams been in the final that both didn’t make the playoffs the year before and both didn’t make the playoffs the year after either.
— Perhaps this happened in baseball given how few teams make playoffs but I doubt that
— Hands down on a historical basis the worst finals ever.
I don’t like cap games so the Kniggets can go away, or dirty psychos like A P, or Tkachuks, but Florida for me is full value by how they play and how their players have stepped up
Would have loved Sam on our team. Turtle is doing well but I don’t have the stomach for that
The Oilers being the 8th seed and making it to the final makes it one of the best finals ever.
Not sure what you guys are going on about.
While Ryan Fanti’s ECHL numbers overall were pedestrian at best, his playoff numbers were actual quite good. He sported a 1.35ga, 0959 save % in 6 games played with a 3, 3, 0 record.
I think Fanti, like Savoie, needs a mulligan on this season. Bring it all back in the fall.
105.9 the X in Pittsburgh is reporting they have one source that Kyle Dubas is finalizing deal with Pittsburgh Penguins to be next GM.
https://twitter.com/joshrimerpr/status/1663622025582108673?s=61&t=WWzo5XOO0SDsOISFpfGKMg
For an allegedly smart guy, Dubas sure seems to gravitate to high pressure ‘win now’ markets. Guy loves the hot seat.
Dubas has made a lot of money. Still he probably has a house in Rosedale or Forest Hill with a mortgage on it. Pittsburgh is an hour flight away.
Anyone else enjoying the schadenfreude of the ex Flames Tkachuk and Bennett ripping it up for Florida atm? Is this a case of an analytics driven org fleecing an old school ‘braintrust?’
Nah.
Bennett wasn’t working out in Calgary and had requested a trade…Tkachuk didn’t want to play (like many others) for Sutter.
As usual, his question went right over your head.
No it didn’t.
Analytics and “old school braintrust” have nothing to do with the situation.
The Flames have embraced analytics for years. They have a 4 person team.
https://www.tsn.ca/calgary-flames-darryl-sutter-hockey-analytics-1.1776365
So have the Panthers.
https://www.nhl.com/news/sunny-mehta-had-unique-path-to-panthers-front-office/c-325214392
wow
and your first reply had nothing to do with analytics or braintrust.
zoommmmmm
Many complained about the usage of Jesse but I gotta tell you the handling of Bennett by the Calgary organization was a sin. I wonder how the paths of Sam and Leon would have differed had Mac-T taken Sam instead of Leon. I also wonder about the push-up thing if it was the tipping point for Mac-T
This is a question for Oiler fans tho
Bennett was pretty much the best Flames forward in the playoffs every year he was there.
Then the coaches went back to playing the regular season guys who disappeared in the playoffs the following season.
Tkachuk has the opportunity to take out 3 of my bottom 5 or so teams. Boston, Toronto, Vegas ugh… And then to humiliate Calgary without them even lacing up skates is priceless. Nothing Calgary can do but sit there in mediocrity and try not to look.
Didn’t think Tkachuk had it in him after watching him fold to our team last year but yes this is very satisfying schadenfreude. (Johnny Cocky bailing for the worst team in the league wasn’t bad either.)
To paraphrase LT, “Gaudreau was clearly making decisions based on something other than winning.”
I’ve been ALL OVER Tkachuk leading a non-flames team to a cup since the day the Oilers were eliminated – throw in Bennett making an impact and the odd play from Lomberg and it will be a massive kick in the junk to the flames.
Ok, let’s see if I can negotiate these rapids without getting wet or offending anyone.
The apparent ideological divide between Alberta’s urban and rural populations reminds me of the hockey analytics ‘debate.’ Data (ie science) vs Faith (ie gut). Tale as old as time (Little Mermaid trigger alert!). See ‘sun revolves around earth’ and ‘gravity does not exist’ citations for reference.
Anyone who’s read Gladwell’s Blink knows that you underrate the gut to your detriment. That said, as much as I appreciate Ken Holland’s work, I’m less thrilled with us going ‘The Smartest Man in the Room’ route on decisions that will likely impact my grand daughter’s quality of life.
I know. I know. Me of little faith. I’ve got to work on that. Sounds hard. Maybe I should just let my gut get bigger instead?
Andrew Brunette the new head coach in Nashville.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/andrew-brunette-to-be-named-as-head-coach-of-nashville-predators-1.1966878
This could be a blow to the Flames coaching search as it was rumoured he was a leading candidate.
As long as they don’t get Gallant which I can’t see happening. Conroy will go with Mitch Love who’s had success in the AHL and is familiar with Craig.
Gallant is being considered.
https://flamesnation.ca/news/lebrun-calgary-flames-will-be-interviewing-gerald-gallant-during-coaching-search
There’s a chance Ray Ferraro may be returning to Canadian hockey broadcasts.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/new-canucks-tv-analyst-sportsnet-ray-ferraro
Ferraro is pretty excellent. And Garrett was one of the worst. If it happens, it’d be about as big of an improvement as possible.
I’ve never been a big Garrett fan but it’s telling that Sportsnet picked the Vancouver broadcast team to work the Boston series not Jack and Louie who are the worst in Canada IMO.
Jack Michaels called the WCF (along with Ed Olczyk and Brian Hayword) for Sports USA.
Weird snore fest for me
Not telling at all. Jack works for the Oilers’ broadcast team. The Oilers were still in the playoffs. Vancouver was out of the playoffs by the trade deadline.
When the Oilers were eliminated Jack was free to work elsewhere, which he did.
Honestly dude, you have developed this weird derangement that has skewed your objectivity. I have no doubt in my mind that if the current Oilers play by play man was peak Rod Philips or Mike Emrick you would have the same views.
12.Tampa Bay (4): ’04, ’15, ’20, ’21*, ’22
23. Vegas (1): ’18, ’23*
FIFY
I’m only sort of joking. But I would prefer not to normalise such blatant cheating. Which is what it was when Tampa did it, before the media lost interest and the GMs wanted to keep one in their own pocket. In any event, you could probably find a * for a few of these and I know on Bay Street they have several for the inverse, one with Wayne in the box.
Edmonton looks pretty good from here.
I think we could tie Boston before this cluster is through.
Respect your opinion but it’s not cheating as much as it is “exploiting the loophole”. And I believe Chicago did this a few years back as well (I think on their 2nd title in 2013, but maybe it was in 2015).
Do I like it? Not a bit. But the rules didn’t all of the sudden change. A smart accountant/lawyer found the loophole and now 2 teams have used it to their advantage to win the cup and a 3rd get to the Final.
The league has chosen not to change this – even when they had a chance to do it when they re-opened the CBA during the COVID pandemic. So the GM’s and the Players don’t have an issue with it.
Fair enough. I understand “exploiting the loophole” as a legal manoeuvre that exits for the purpose of contravening the spirit and the intention of the law.
So not strictly cheating, I guess. But as with pixel-bender below, a loophole that should be closed. And if it were so broadly applicable, every team would contravene every year. This doesn’t happen so my most generous reading of these two teams’ playoffs success would be that they went against norms. Still get an asterisk from me.
Most damning, I think is that I see Offside’s argument below with a bit more clarity: If the VGK win this year, then when teams actually do this, they win the Cup.
So, exploiting a loophole / cheating / evading norms…. whichever way you dice it, this gets rewarded, not punished. If you believe the cap has been a good thing for the NHL, this is bad.
This is how sports and business are run. exploit any and all loopholes. Hyper competitive.
Deflate gate?
Garbage bang on pitches?
endless examples.
Doesn’t mean I need to like it.
It’s a loophole some teams can take advantage of, for sure. And to be fair, some degree of luck is also required as you need:
1: One of your top performing / top paid players to have a long-term injury in the season that they will recover from before the playoffs start. Or in Tampa / Vegas’ case, exactly on the first day of the playoffs.
2: To be able to acquire another high performing player to at least help step in to fill the hole caused by injury.
But you shouldn’t be able to ice a team so far over the cap during the playoffs — it’s a loophole that needs to close.
But as you say, the media loses interest easily and other teams don’t want to be seen as whining, or believe that they’ll be able to pull something similar off when their time comes.
Because playoff teams have expanded rosters (via the ‘black aces’), I would suggest that a relatively easy to implement solution/compromise would be to limit the total salary of the players dressed (i. e. 20 in normal circumstances) for each playoff game to that year’s salary cap (e.g. $82.5 mln for this year).
Seems reasonable. Sticks to the integrity of the cap while making allowance for the fact that there will be injuries, while not allowing teams to stash players on the IR.
I think this is a good resolution and compromise. Retains purpose of cap.
— I really like that pennant list you put up. Going through it’s apparent that you either won them in clusters or just every once in a blue moon (or never)
— Just a reminder that nothing is “deserved” and how the distribution of success is pretty spread out.
— The “curse” of most Oiler fans is the belief that because they had the Great One there is some manifest destiny with being an Oiler (this was amplified by the OBC) that ought to mean Cups.
— For different reasons the Leafs share this entitled belief : centre of universe, biggest Hockey market, most press, storied franchise biggest base of fans across the country.
— Going back to the pennants: pulling back it’s really rare for your “home team” to be amongst the best.
So I know I am totally biased but I believe Phil Kemp can be better than Desharnais. Give the guy the chance.
Kemp is competing with Ceci, not with Desharnais. That is the job he has to steal. Be good enough to push Broberg back to the left side to replace Kulak.
Kemp is competing for 3RD a spot currently occupied by Deharnais. I don’t imagine Deharnais is up the lineup more than the odd shift or fill in game and, in fact, I think he should be 7D behind Broberg.
Yes, Kemp CAN maybe be better than Vincent but he’s not yet – Vincent’s length, including the lengthy of his stick, helps make up for potential skating or ability issues.
Kemp is a big dude too but doesn’t have the lengthy Vinny does.
If Kemp can keep improving his skating, he has a chance.
The Oilers have now lost to the eventual Western Conference Champions 2 years in a row.
So that alone tells us that this team is close.
It also is imperative they get to a Finals in the next 2 years, as their roster construction will have to change greatly when they sign Leon and / or if he chooses to walk.
Some folks can name the Cup losers going back to expansion but not many. I’ve yet to meet a person without these earpieces that give you a answer just by thinking of a question name the top 4 teams going back 50 years. In other words close only counts in horseshoes and hand gernades
Then it is imperative they WIN THE CUP in the next 2 years. 🙂
Close counts every year because most teams that win are cracking at the bit a few times. Close matters because there’s too much chance in hockey.
Not your point, I know, but my Dad used to bet his friends when they came over, and they would name the year, I`d give them the cup winner, and the finalist. I used to be able to go back all the way to the 1920s, but lately its been fuzzy into the 1950s… I could rattle off every cup finals since 1967 though!
Thank you for the trip down memory lane!
— Vegas was one of the few teams that clearly share the characteristics of the cup winners from the expansion era.
— I was surprised by the push back when I brought this up as a counter to “the playoffs are random”
—. Going through the Cup winners : they are identified quite well though playoff Amd share many of of the following
1) multiple years as one of best teams in league
2) previous recent deep runs/cup finals
3) some elite future HoF
Florida isn’t a typical Cup team: 1st round or didn’t qualify 6 of last 7 years. Vegas though would be a worthy Cup team (with the same * as Tampa I guess it seems lots of people get bee in a bonnet) but if your not trying to cheat your not trying to win.
You listed three points but didn’t really dig into them with Florida. Worth unpacking a bit. Florida reloaded right before COVID and was rebounding ok that season making the play in round where they lost. In 20/21 they had the 2nd best record in the East, played Tampa in round 1. They won the Prez Trophy and scored the most goals in 30 years in 21/22, lost to Tampa in the 2nd round. Those previous teams didn’t believe in tight defense and ran into a three-peat of SCF appearances from Tampa. This year was the outlier from their last few regular season wise and is probably due to roster turnover with Hubby and Weegar moving on and Tkachuk in. Driver vs passenger trade off right there.
Florida is similar to where Oilers are at IMO. Knocking at the door. Just as things could have turned out different for our Oil they did turn out different for Florida this year.
— Florida was the bottom wild card 1 point ahead of 2 other teams. If they win they would be along with STL and Carolina amongst the most unlikely teams to win Cup from a historical basis.
— Cup teams generally have a bunch of years of sustained success. Perhaps with hindsight if Florida won then went deep next year you could put them in the deserving category.
— But Vegas fits the Avs, Tampa, Washington, Pitts, Chi, Kings Bruins, Wings, Devils etc template. Florida would be like St-Louis:
We will see. I say the Cup does a great job of identifying worthy champions almost always. That team is Vegas IMO.
Yep.
And with the rise of the Sabres and Senators, it’s entirely plausible Florida could miss the playoffs next season.
Lets compare Florida with Colorado.
Ekblad has the same number of CF and SCF appearances as Mackinnon and Ovi. important to state that part. Folks say Colorado was knocking for a while but they didnt really have any success until they won it all.
in 18/19 the Avs snapped their drought and made the playoffs with 95 points. FLD didn’t make the cut that year in a tough Atlantic with 96 points and 1 more win than the Avs.
In 18/19 Avs had 90 Points (lost round 2), FLD with 86 DNQ
19/20 Avs had 92 points (lost round 2) and FLD with 79 (qual) before covid slammed the breaks (Goalie Bob’s 1st season in FLD).
20/21 – Avs had 82 pts 1st in the West (round 2), FLD had 78 pts 2nd in the East (round 1)
21/22 – Avs had 119 points (Winner), FLD had 122 (round 2) (7th best regular season of all-time).
22/23 – Avs had 109 points (round 1), FLD had 92 (big offseason change and SCF).
So the gap isn’t quite as big as it appears. I think FLD had some tough luck running into Tampa the last two years. Blocking by Tampa and the Vortex of Leafs nation numbed folks to a team that was getting better and better for the most part. Hence why they’re like the Oilers. Not a flash in the pan, they’d been good for a while but not playoff good. Welp they broke through and it shouldn’t really surprise people if they looked at the team in a longer time frame.
— I mean there is some subjectivity to my opinion that the Cup identifies worthy champions.
— If you rate Florida this year as amongst the worthy winners, have at ‘er. I don’t.
— For what it’s worth I’d put the Avs in the bottom half of worthy winners since expansion. If Florida won this year I’d put them bottom 3 the others being Carolina and St-Louis. Now if they win this year and go deep next year then Yeah I would bump them up.
Like the Knights the Panthers keep adding impact players
Seems to work. They also both like gamers. I feel the Oilers are still happy adding nice guys who have to learn how to push hard and when it counts
Holland says one has to contend every year to win it, rather than blow ones wad in one or two shots.
My fear is that you still have to know what is missing and be able to get it without getting the short end constantly and bleeding out. Does he? Can he?
If they don’t fix the 5v5 yet again it’s runner up city. My fear is Holland locked in some wingers that aren’t good enough at evens when it counts. And don’t bring much else. Hopefully those long plays aren’t already coming home to roost
Speed and finishing are the name of the game now. Faster every year, chances are few with how contenders will defend in the playoffs so you have to pop them when you get them
Love the Pennant layed out like that. We are lucky to be Oilers Fans.
Calgary and Vancouver have 3 pennants in 45 years? Just shows how hard it is to win the Conference, let alone win a Cup.
So goalies, aging curves, buyouts, Jack Campbell.
I’ve been picking away at pulling goalie data the last bit. This is to look at multiple things but most specifically 1) goalie aging curves and 2) how goalies fare after having shitty seasons.
For a pool of players I took all goalies who played 200 or more games between 2007-08 to present. 07-08 because I’m manually pulling the data and Natural Stat Trick at least allows me to download stats back to 07-08 so it isn’t 100% manual.
That’s 16 seasons of data and there were 69 goalies who played 200+ games in that span. This includes guys who were towards the end their careers in 07-08 as well as guys who are just getting started in 22-23. Theoretically those should even each other out.
I chose 200 games because I wanted to look at somewhat established goalies (it was also far less work, but mostly it was to remove goalies on the fringes of the league).
For each goalie I lined up their age (on Sept. 25th) with each season and also normalized their SV% to league average (so the data is +/- league average, since SV% has varied so much in recent years). I also only included seasons were a goalie played 20 or more games to reduce small sample variations.
I should have a bit more to say on an aging curve sometime this evening when I have more time.
For now I just looked at how goalies did the season before and the season after they had a shit season. I defined ‘shit season’ as 10 or more SV% points below league average – so for instance average SV% last season was .904, a shit season would be .894 or less.
Since there’s not that many seasons to work with I pooled goalies by age. Reminder this is SV% above or below league average:
Ages 27, 28, 29
Season before (-) .002
Shitty season (-) .016
Season after (0) .000
There were 10 qualifying seasons here (with available data from both the season before and after). 1 goalie also dropped out of the league after his shit season.
Ages 30, 31, 32
Season before (0) .000
Shitty season (-) .015
Season after (0) .000
There were 15 qualifying seasons here. None of the goalies dropped out of the league following their shit season.
Ages 33, 34, 35
Season before (-) .004
Shitty season (-) .014
Season after (-) .006
There were 10 qualifying seasons here. 5 additional goalies dropped out of the league following their shit season (so we are seeing some real attrition in this oldest sample of goalies).
Interesting that these were worse goalies (.004 below league average) to start with (and actually the 27-29 year old goalies were also .002 below league average before their poor season).
So a summary:
Age 27-29 goalies improved slightly after their shit season (.002 better than their pre-shit SV%).
Age 30-32 goalies returned exactly to their previous performance after a shit season.
Age 33-35 goalies did not return to previous performance after their shit season (.002 worse), and also 1/3 of them dropped out of the league.
I’m actually a bit shocked at this. I assumed there would be some drop off in performance after a poor season but it seems like there may not actually be any (on average).
For the obvious comparison, Jack Campbell in his age 30 season had a SV% that was .016 below league average. He was .007 above league average at age 29, so this data suggests he is likely to return to being above average at age 31.
I should note that Jack Campbell is not a 200 game goalie (171 regular season games currently) so folks can feel free to discount him the comparison based on that. To me this looks quite encouraging though. We shall see I guess.
Nicely done.
For Oilers management I think this helps offer context for their probabilistic reasoning:
There’s a 1/3 chance that Campbell remains awful and gets the Cal Pederson AHL demotion.
There’s a 1/3 chance that he performs as a capable NHL backup.
There’s a 1/3 chance that he outperforms Stu Skinner and re-claims the #1 goalie designation
We all hope that Jack Campbell lives up to his contract and plays like a #1.
If he stinks out the joint again he will be assigned to the AHL and Ken Holland will need to deploy resources in-season to supply a satisfactory backup to Skinner. Campbell would get bought out in summer ’24 to free up cap space to address the position.
My fear is that Campbell plays like a .900 goalie that is neither a starter, nor a non-NHL goalie. The cap hit is too dear for a middling backup, and with two successive seasons of underperformance I think we would have our man surrounded.
Anything less than a .905 would be another failure of a season. Therefore, I think it’s 50-50 that Campbell gets bought out next summer.
There is every reason to believe that Campbell will be at least .905 (if not better).
I mean in the 6 years prior to becoming an Oiler, he was .914 or higher in 5 of them.
Good. I hope he gets there.
.905 is the bar IMO to keep him for a 3rd season. Like I say, I think it’s 50-50.
If he’s sub-.905 for a second straight season then it’s time to cut bait.
Hmmm.
The data wouldn’t seem to suggest the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 (or 50/50) valuations are accurate.
Not sure I’m reading you correctly. You believe those are what Oiler management thinks?
I’d put the bad outcome probabilities lower than that myself (both real and management’s actions), though opinions will vary obviously.
I don’t think he was basing those outcomes on data, just the range of possibliities.
Best case scenario. Campbell takes over the net from Skinner.
Average scenario. Campbell’s an adequate backup
Worst case scenario. Campbell’s unplayable as a backup as he was last season.
I’m not sure it’s fair to state the data doesn’t support his approximation, then just to state an opinion of your own. What data are you referencing?
The data in my post seem to suggest that Campbell’s SV% is most likely to fully recover to 21-22 levels (ie – above league average), as hard as that is to believe.
Pretty funny, but again as I’ve said before, I read backwards. I actually missed your detailed post. I also am working right now. Kudos to you for the time and effort.
I’m having a bit of hard time following it, so if you can help me understand better, I’d appreciate it.
First, if we used your methodology for a similar analysis a few years from now, Campbell wouldn’t even count as a comparator since the cutoff is 200 or more games?
On the flip side, we’re including many players who’ve actually played far more than that, so we’re including as comparators many goalies whose careers have far surpassed Campbell’s single season as a starter?
So we’re not even comparing Campbells to Campbells, but we’re comparing Campbells to Andersens and Goalie Bobs and Price.
We’ve discussed this before, but perhaps this reflects your bias in ascribing Campbell to the tier above in the comps we found while selectively excluding the Chad Johnsons or Grubauers. I myself would find it hard to buy an argument that Campbell’s career is more like Price, Bob, and Andersen than Chad Johnson or Grubauer..
But we’re also only including goalies who’ve had a slump of 10 points below league average for 20 or more more games.
So we’re only looking for goalies whose slumps are only 62.5% as bad as Campbell’s in terms of delta between slump and league average save percentage, and only 56% as long as Campbell’s in terms of games played.
Then we’re basically comparing Campbell to a lot of goalies who’ve probably started multiple seasons then averaging out their results of their post season slumps?
How are we adjusting for, in aggregate data, the effect of coaching decisions? i.e. Goalies that play well get more games and goalies that don’t get fewer? This will minimize the effect of a repeat slump on the group average save percentage.
What are the raw numbers in this group of goalies that were above or below league average the following season?
I don’t think that’s entirely correct.
Campbell is 31 turning 32 next season. Goalies are on the decline at this time.
Though JP and I don’t agree on this or much else generally, we both put a fair amount of work into making arguments from either side.
Campbell’s career trajectory is a little unique. He didn’t play a single season as a starter until his age 29/30 season. He started that season like a house on fire then played terrible from January onwards.
There are range of comps available.
On JP’s side of the ledger. You have the pie in the sky outcome of Thomas Greiss.
He had a .892 during his 31/32 season (27 gp) and followed it up with a .927 over 43 games. He had a few other seasons as an above average backup (following that).
Then you have Talbot. Talbot was blocked behind the King before traded to Edmonton. He had a .893 for his 31/32 season. He was a respectable back up for the next two seasons before having a season as a low-end starter (following that).
Unlike Campbell, Talbot had 3 seasons before the crash as a heavily used starter. He had seasons playing 56, 67 and 72 games.
Chad Johnson had a trajectory more similar to Campbell with only one season as a starter prior to turning 30. After a 36 x .891 at age 31, he never recovered.
Then you have Grubauer. He cracked in his 29/30 year old season with 55 x .899 and hasn’t recovered yet.
He had only one season as a starter prior to that, but above league average several years as a backup, like Campbell.
Then you have Holtby, Ward, and Reimer though their trajectories differ. i.e. Holtby had a .897 at 30 over 48 games, but he had played several years as a starter prior. Holby never really recovered after that season.
Either side you want to take, I don’t think it’s reasonable to say that “there is every reason to believe Campbell will be at least .905 or better.”
It’s far from certain.
Grubauer’s numbers declined when he moved from a high end Stanley Cup team to an expansion team.
Talbot’s numbers cratered after playing 73 and 67 games – a workload not often seen in this era – he then recovered, big time, in his early 30s on a new team.
There are many factors other than just age with all of these examples and I simply do not think that Campbell’s performance this past season was age-related regression.
So basically what you’re saying is that you’re an optimistic guy and you’re optimistic. 🙂
That’s fair.
Nope.
What I’m saying is that “aging curve data” isn’t anywhere near definitive of anything in this circumstance but a single data point.
As has been shown in this blog, by JP, there are various “aging curve data” analysis for goalie that show that Campbell is likely to recover from this past season. Essentially again curve data can be used to argue both sides.
Looking at various other factors and they lead one to believe that is reasonably likely, even probably, that Jack Campbell plays much better next year, is over a .905 given that is the below his norm (i.e. 5 of last 7 seasons .914 plus), etc.
hi allan,
thanks for all your great work this spring. i was curious if you had a sheet with the nhle for your top 126? i think it’s an important contextual element for your rankings.
Oilers have re-signed Phil Kemp, 2 years (2-way deal) – per the team.
I presume Lavoie and Philp follow fairly quickly.
“Pissin’ in the wind,
and it’s blowin’ on all our friends.
Makin’ the same mistakes we swear we’ll never make again”
I think it’s going to be a Jerry Jeff Walker kind of day.
If I could just get off of this LA freeway, I’d raise you one badly drawn boy, and dance like Mr. Bojangles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsyP6aEyCRI
I could see Jesper Wallstedt as an NHL goaltender one year from now …
Is and was the right pick for the team at the time. He should be in the system right now.
Worst. Finals. Matchup. Ever.
The Lightning’s cap-contravention playoff run had many people wondering if that Cup deserved an asterisk. I thought it did at the time and was dismayed how that issue fell off so quickly and easily. This is how the world works. Vegas does not belong in the Finals while paying 8 million more against the cap than anyone else. If they win, they get an asterisk from me, too.
Hockey people have too much pride (ie. “we should come in and play our game and they could have 18 Gordie Howes we should still beat them”) or simply want to bend the rules when its their turn? Either way, a cap is not a cap if it is not enforced when it matters.
Agreed… this was telegraphed exponentially and should be no surprise. Kelly McCrimmon said as much, believe his words after losing to Tampa were along “hard to win against a $100M team” with Kucherov and Stamkos coming back for the playoffs.
So he’s taken matters into his own hands and just gone and done it himself with Stone etc. injuries. Hopefully, although doubtful the league looks into it.
They’re not paying $8 million more against the cap. No player gets any salary paid in playoffs. Cap not in effect during playoffs. When cap was in effect, the Knights were compliant. They didn’t break any rules.
Anaheim New Jersey.
I enjoyed ever one of the 10 games played in the conference finals (but for the last one) and am very much interested in watching Matthew Tkachuk lead a non-flames team to the Stanley Cup.
Also very much interested in watching the likes of Pieterangelo and Hague and Kollesar have their dreams shattered.
If the same lineups were in the SCF and playing out of Toronto and Chicago would you feel the same?
Winning your conference should be celebrated — it’s damned hard and a hell of an accomplishment.
I remember a post here — eons back at the birth of the internet — when Lowetide asked if anyone doubted that Lemaire’s Wild would win a Stanley. Turns out, they never really got close. Teams can make far more smart moves than not and still not get a sniff.
Sports can be brutal.
Suffer, those poor Leaf fans…
Edmonton should have sat Evander Kane until the playoffs and then went out and spent 8 million at the deadline and then maybe we could play in the Finals too.
I like my Conference championships without asterisks.
Boo Hoo.
Please elaborate.
If two of the last three SC winners exceeded the Cap by a large margin, then this argument really does have merit. It’s not just sore loser talk
Well I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
edit: however I don’t think VGK necessarily need to go all the way for the argument to have “merit”. The alternative argument is that anyone should be able to engage in the same kind of playoff cap circumvention. If Vegas beat Winnipeg and lost to Edmonton, pissed Jets fans don’t lose their argument. Vegas circumvented against Winnipeg, Edmonton, Dallas and now will against Florida. Thats 4 times, not once.
My question is: Were Vegas and Tampa just positioned to do it? Or were Vegas and Tampa just willing to do it?
Edmonton could have and didn’t. Pride? Ethics? Stupidity?
I will meet you halfway and say winning the SC gives the argument even more merit. I dont like assuming motives so my guess is that they were positioned to do it based on circumstances. It wasn’t planned. But once the opportunity was there, I am sure they realized how to exploit it.
I don’t think any of (1) Oilers’ management, (2) Oiler’ coaching staff, (3) the NHL league office, (4) the NHLPA, (5) Evander Kane’s teammates or (6) Evander Kane would have been on board with that.
I don’t like almost everything about the league except the Oilers. If that’s what Battman wants, do it. It’s not illegal. Possibly likely unethical
Man Berezkin and Yeseyev are just total wild cards, aren’t they. I wonder, given the world circumstances, if the Oilers’ scouts, player development personell, etc. have even had a chance to see these guys play in the last while?
What Yeseyev did as an 18 year old in the KHL is HIGHLY promissing but, then again, maybe it means nothing? Its so hard to know.
Its also impossible to now if either of these two kids even have a desire, or intent, to sign and come over.
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Here is hoping that Bourgault might be an option by spring 2024 (i.e. later this season as oppossed to next season). I presume that, after a very uneven rookie pro season, he will be workign very hard this summer on strength, etc. with a goal to being a prominant AHL player from game 1 and finding consitency at that level – putting himself in the conversation for an NHL call-up.
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Petrov and Wanner with good arrows in their draft plus 2 years in junior in my opinion. Petrov’s production didn’t “pop” but from many accounts, his overall game improved along with his skating and, for me, just a slight increase in production while losing both his draft plus 1 linemates(Brandon Coe and Mitchell Russell) to pro hockey was big and key.
Wanner absolutely popped late last season and in the playoffs – man that kid can hunt and hit similar to Niemo. He continued that spike this season.
For these two, you just never know how their games translate to pro hockey – there is generally a “learning/development curve” (i.e. see Bourgault, Savoie, etc.) but there will be opportunity.
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I think Savoie is probably starting from scratch but he should be “more ready” for the rigors of the AHL
Tulio was up and down last season but his “up times” were absolutely fantastic to watch – great motor – he’s like healthy Yamamoto but with a wicked one timer and just better release (at the AHL level).
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Phil Kemp is an absolute “leader” – its tough to quantify that but I think he is an absolute key member of that Condors team. Such a solid positional defender with under-rated puck moving ability.
Skating, skating, skating – that’s the one (and I think only) thing that can hold him back from an NHL career. He could see games this season.
Thank you for the Phil Kemp love. I have known him pretty much his entire life. Give this guy a chance, he will not disappoint.
He turned in to a “true leader” on that team – of course, as much as you can tell as an outsider but his actions on the ice and what I saw in the room and what the coaches said, etc.
That is his pedigree too.
Since one of you is already in time out, a reminder that this forum does not tolerate political comments or putdowns of any individual. No matter race, creed, religion, political leanings, orientation or eye colour, you are welcome to discuss hockey and myriad other things respectfully.
If you don’t, you can’t play here. Thanks.