The Edmonton Oilers signed Phil Kemp to a two-year, two-way deal on Tuesday. That signing means the club has 10 defensemen under contract for next season, with Evan Bouchard and others to come. Edmonton had 14 defensemen signed to NHL contracts a year ago, suspect we’ll see a flurry here in the days to come. Question: Is Kemp on an NHL trajectory?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 5 Oilers assets that could have value in a trade this summer
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers 2022-23 predictions revisited
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
- DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
THE 50 MAN (33)
- Goalies (5): Stuart Skinner, Jack Campbell, Calvin Pickard, Olivier Rodrigue, Ryan Fanti
- Left Defense (6): Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Cam Dineen
- Right Defense (4): Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Phil Kemp, Max Wanner
- Center (6): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, James Hamblin, Carl Berglund, Brad Malone, Greg McKegg
- Left Wing (5): Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Dylan Holloway, Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov
- Right Wing (7): Zach Hyman, Kailer Yamamoto, Warren Foegele, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Seth Griffith, Jake Chiasson
- RFA: Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin, Evan Bouchard, Raphael Lavoie, Noah Philp
I think the Oilers have some players with value who could be dealt for quality fits over the summer, but it’s also true Holland could run this roster back and then see how things shine by the deadline. The big mysterian is No. 2 RHD. Godot10 has been hammering the idea of playing Broberg on the second pairing, and I’m fascinated currently with the idea of Ekholm-Broberg, Nurse-Bouchard and Kulak-Ceci. Doubt it happens, we’ll see. I think Kailer Yamamoto’s replacement on the second line is the other big fixup job this summer.
PHIL KEMP
Phil Kemp has a nice resume. He’s 6.03, 211 and this season with Bakersfield the team was 54 percent (41-35) at even-strength goals with him on the ice. When Kemp was at rest, the totals were 119-117, 50 percent. That isn’t Vincent Desharnais in 2021-22 levels (Desharnais was 66 percent goal share on, Condors 51 percent with Desharnais off), but Kemp is making progress.
Kemp began the season with Yanni Kaldis, Alex Peters and Darien Kielb as his partners. It’s my recall he played second- or third-pairing in the early stages, with plenty of PK time. Later in the year, and into the playoffs, it was Peters.
That tandem played well to my eye and in the heart of the game. Kemp was key because there was little or no chaos to his game, and on the RH side in Bakersfield last winter that was unique. Let’s list the RH blue who played for Bakersfield last season, using Eric Rodgers’ ES TOI estimates:
- Mike Kesselring 20:03
- Phil Kemp 18:33
- Jason Demers 18:10
That tells me the Condors were comfortable with all three, although a guess would have Kemp taking the defensive zone draws and Kesselring the offensive (I didn’t track it). Kesselring was the best RH defenseman in Bakersfield last season, but Kemp owned the best even-stength goal share (Demers was low 40’s) among the three.
Will he play in the NHL? I think he’s the No. 4 RH option once Evan Bouchard signs. I estimate the depth chart as Bouchard, Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Kemp, then Max Wanner. One would expect another AHL defender added to fill the Demers “veteran recall option” role, but Kemp might be that guy in the season to come. I’d estimate his chances of appearing in an NHL game next season at 50 percent.
I expect we’re going to see maybe two more blue signed for Bakersfield, and I do wonder if Luca Munzenberger is among them. We also need to remember the AHL deals, but both (Alex Peters, Xavier Bernard) of those men are lefties. If things remain the same, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the season begin Dineen-Niemelainen; Peters-Kemp; Bernard-Wanner. There is more to come.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
There’s a Stanley Cup final, an NBA final and a CFL season straight ahead, plus a new coach of the Nashville Predators and Toronto Maple Leafs are about to name a new GM. It’s all going to be discussed 10-2 today on TSN1260. Hope you can join us! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
So I’m watching the Kamloops Blazers (former junior Oilers which is why they still wear still wear the colours) play like crap
It’s painful again as they are making the same mistakes as the Oilers
Blazers coach Clouston talked about stats. That when they hit more they win. Sound familiar? ‘Sowing seeds’. Woody has a full zombie infection from whomever
Flattop used to say you can’t skate as fast as the puck. He has fast players now and they are better than his Oilers team did
Every good team when it counts I have ever seen always has 2 hands on their sticks and are strong on the puck, knock downs interceptions and win puck battles
The Oilers wave one hand on sticks like a white flag . As did the losing Blazers
$867,500 times three is the number on Grubbe’s ELC, per Capfriendly.
I think the Jays are close to putting out an APB to find Manoah’s mojo.
From a couple of days ago.
Solid
————————————-
bcurlock@bcurlock
In all seriousness, I would be reaching out to the NY Rangers to see if there was a deal for Jayden Grubbe. He’s got some work to do, but he would be a nice fit in the Oilers organization.
11:06 AM · May 29, 2023·28.9K Views
That would be fantastic.
Late 5th (approx #152) for an EARLY 3rd (#65), whose development is on track as value for his original draft position, and is two years closer to potentially making a contribution? NICE WORK KENNY!
Jayden Grubbe interview coming up on Oilers Now……
This latest acquisition is what Oiler fans have been pining for for more than a decade: actual competition at ALL roster positions.
Grubbe vs. Philp….let’s get ready to rumble!!!
Young, big RHCs.
Best man at training camp stays up as 4C
The loser goes down to Condors angry and determined to win his spot back.
They both suck and you go get Bjugstad (or reasonable facsimile) at the deadline
The downside with this trade is that the 50-man roster has now ballooned to 34. 😀
This is exactly the issue!
I smirked when I read that. 😏
Given Holland’s propensity to play prospects slowly, it would not be reasonable to assume that Grubbe is being considered for NHL employment this fall as it’s a big jump from the WHL to the NHL. Would think you’re right that Philp is going to be auditioning for 4C, just have to see who he is competing with for it (Bjugstad, Ryan, other).
I think we are getting ahead of ourselves a bit here.
We are talking about a B prospect that is just going from junior and is still draft eligible (he would have gone back in to the draft if unsigned, not a free agent).
There is all but zero chance this kids is an Oiler for game 1 (very little chance he’s an Oiler for game 70 either) – this is a prospect to develop over the course of a few years in the AHL
Yep.
One thing about Holland slow playing kids is while he won’t rush them, based on their personality and whether the mental side is ready, he said it happened in Detroit because they had to take a job from a good player
He also said that he might not have done that if the situation was different. So if kids have good summers and camps we may see a few up next season
Brent Sutter calls Grubbe an exceptional player and sees him being a key role player in the bigs, able to play all game facets
Also said he’s a good skater so I feel relief if that’s true because that’s why I was looking him up
He also looks an awful lot like Drai so there’s that. Probably has a stellar one timer!
Good move for a 5th
Holland needs to load up on these kind of bets cant avoid to pay for the Yamo’s and J.P’s of the world 3 million when there are cheaper, better and hungry players out there on the fringes. It time to finally move on from the Yamamoto top 6 experiment. Leon needs a big body on his line with bark Leon’s been taking a shit kicking for 2 years ever since stone hands Yamo was gifted the job on his line.
Yamamoto wasn’t gifted a spot on Leon’s line, he earned it with his play after his Christmas call up in 2019-20 (4 years ago).
At 5v5 that season Yamamoto scored 27GP 7-15-22, almost as much as his linemates Nuge (30GP 12-14-26) and Draisaitl (30GP 9-16-25).
And once again, recall that the shit kicking Draisaitl takes involves the Oilers scoing 62% of the goals when he and Yamamoto have been on the ice together (this is the 4 years).
Even with McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice together the Oilers only scored 56% of the goals over the same years. What a bum.
There’s many players that have a dynamite first year coming out of AHL Just like Yamo, players need to adapt because the opposition is. At first Yamo was drawing a lot of penalties because of his weakness but the Refs figured him out and started calling it the other way. Yamamoto will never score 20 again, after being bought out I can’t see him lasting more than a few 1 million 1 year contracts.
Keep Ekholm with Bouchard. Nurse Broberg is the pairing that we should want.
Stop playing Nurse with skating or size or d-awareness challenged partners. Play Nurse with a guy he doesn’t have to compensate for.
Ceci is early cover, Trade deadline acquisition late cover. If Broberg doesn’t advance during the season quickly enough.
But one has to start the season dreaming big. It is time to give Broberg the challenge.
So not Oilers but I agree. Play the best players and let them get going. He’s not a kid out of the OHL or something even if young. He’s played against men lots. Manson can earn his money coaching him up
I would suggest that 35% TOI vs elites while playing his off side may be a bit aggressive for Broberg to start this coming season. Don’t get me wrong, I think he has the potential to get to that place, and it might not even take that long, but it seems aggressive to start there.
It also seems like a stretch to think the coaching staff, that wouldn’t even trust him with consistent 3RD minutes the last time the team played a game, would move him there.
I think the likelihood is that we see Nurse/Ceci and Ekholm/Bouch to start next season – this pairing did excellent in 2021/22 and Ceci should be able to skate again this coming season (and, frankly, they had excellent goal share numbers vs. elites this past season).
If we do take Ceci out of the equation, I would personally run Nurse/Bouchard and Ekholm/Broberg.
Ekholm was clear #2LD in usage at evens (behind Nurse) and I don’t think that changes as Ekholm ages. A bigger role for Broberg but not the toughest minutes, and he gets the most “stable” vet on the roster to play with.
Not to mention, Bouchard should get so many minutes with McDavid – that’s a no-brainer – and we know Nurse does well in McDavid minutes:
McDavid/Nurse/Bouchard
Drai/Ekholm/Broberg
Broberg has a superior toolkit and more experience than when Bear did it with Nurse.
Heiskanen did it D+1. We are…er…I am asking Broberg to do it at D+5.
One has to know whether one has an affordable internal solution before sacrificing forward depth and a plethora of future draft picks to solve the problem at the deadline.
The Oilers have already committed a lot of salary cap at D.
Going into the playoffs next year with Ceci in the top 4 is a recipe for coming up short again.
Running Ceci with Nurse to start is a mistake, because one has to get Broberg from a rookie top 4D to an experienced top 4D by the trade deadline.
Ekholm is better at compensated for Bouchard’s deficiencies than Nurse. Nurse overcompensates for the deficiencies of flawed partner. That is typically how he gets himself in the trouble. Broberg is inexperienced by pretty sound positionally, although he may not win a high enough percentage of battles yet. Bouchard loses because he gets lost. And that exposes Nurse.
Edit: Heiskanen D+2.
1) Bouchard has a superior toolkit and more experience
2) What Hieskanen has done is completely irrelevant
3) Bouchard with Nurse and Borberg with Ekholm is also learning about internal solutions
4) Nurse/Bouchard have splendid results as a pair over the years.
Bouchard should stay with Ekholm. Ceci should stay with Nurse.
Broberg needs to beat out both Kulak and Vinny for a promotion. He has the skills and toolkit yes. His play has not warranted batting that high up the order yet. He needs to stay healthy and get sorties. He’ll move up soon enough but he has to earn it.
The coaches have competition everywhere on the roster for NHL jobs this season and should maximize the hunger of players chomping for a shot.
No free rides, earn your time.
I’d throw Broberg in there to – obviously a left shot guy but with substantial “non-NHL” experience playing the right side (and some success on that right side in a small sample in the NHL).
I think that Broberg should be playing the right side with either Kulak or Eholm, nightly, this season, and he should be playing ahead of Deharnais – not that I don’t value what Vinny brings.
Very excited to watch Max Wanner as a rookie pro – will he be able to bring some of the physicality that he showed in the Dub? He blew some people up this past season.
Its very interesting that the scouting report talks about Kemp being a good skater whereas its fairly clear that his boots are his main limiting factor.
To my eye, he’s improved his skating over his pro years (as most do) but he still has a ways to go.
I do think he is “on an NHL trajectory” and could even play NHL games this season. He is extremely high end positionally, big and tough and, to my eye, with some under-rated puck moving and offensive skill.
I listened to his spot with Gregor from yesterday and he talked about wanting to get more efficient in puck moving as a primary goal – I think he’s solid in that area.
oilers acquire rights to Jayden Grubbe 65th overall pick for a fifth this draft…big centre ex captain of the rebels…nice pickup gentlemen!
🔁 TRADE 🔁
The #Oilers have acquired the rights to 2021 third-round draft pick Jayden Grubbe from the New York Rangers in exchange for a 2023 fifth-round selection.
The forward scored 39 goals & 95 assists in 194 career WHL regular season games with the Red Deer Rebels.
Exactly what LT has been pining for 🙂
Guess he wasn’t going to sign with the Rangers.
With a couple more moves like this, the Oilers won’t even have to attend the draft.
Let’s tone down the excitement for now.
Well…let’s see.
Obviously, Boston wasn’t going to sign the kid so Holland could have waited a couple of hours and not given up a draft pick?
Grubbe was a New York Rangers 2021 3rd round draft pick and he would have re-entered this year’s draft (would not have been a free agent June 1) had he not signed.
Holland loves throwing draft picks around like drucken Sailor.
There are those on social media harshly criticizing this move because of the limited upside of the acquired player. Like seriously, this is happening.
Of course, its the normal loud kids and its hilarious.
I do wonder if this could mean the org does really think that Noah Philp will spend material portions of this coming season in the NHL?
I think that kid can play.
That 5th round draft pick has waaay more potential upside than Groot. Just think how many points the Oilers are throwing away 5 years from now!
Fitting that the deal happens around lunchtime with the Oilers picking up some Grubbe.
If they’re really hungry, can Philip Grubauer be far behind?
Followed shortly thereafter by the Foudy bros, Jean-Luc and Liam.
It is pronounced Groob, though
So the Oilers are making like 80’s Madonna and getting Into The Grubbe?
This is a great post. Shake Your Groob Thing was my thought but your choice is better.
I am Groob.
The short blurb on Grubbe from Elite Prospects:
If there’s a defining skill here, it’s Grubbe’s defence. He’s less aggressive, and more quietly intelligent, eliminating off-puck threats, reading switch offs, and constantly scanning and adjusting. In transition, he builds speed under the puck, pushes plays to the middle, and finishes his off-puck routes to create space behind him.
6’3” 200 right shot centre.
Could be the 3C of the future.
More:
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2023/05/edmonton-oilers-acquire-jayden-grubbe.html
Thx HH.
Even more:
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-trade-for-big-tough-right-shot-centre-out-of-red-deer
Its important to note that the Oilers could not have just signed the player after the Rangers lost his rights – given his age, he would have re-entered the draft.
~ Dubas to Calgary to complete the Treliving trade with Gary throwing in a 3rd round pick from Edmonton. ~
hah. I missed the Conroy signing.
Ryan, to some of the things you mentioned:
I built the data set from the numbers I was able to pull from NST (07-08 through 22-23). Because of the limited number of years I could access, goalies careers are clipped on either end of the data set.
I set the 200 game threshold (69 goalies) to avoid including goalies who were only in the league a short time (I said ‘established goalies’).
I think the data set, the analyses I did based on it, and the conclusions are sound.
In terms of whether those conclusions should be generalized to Jack Campbell, I was very clear in my first post yesterday that Campbell did not meet the 200 game threshold, and that folks are going to need to make their own decisions about that.
IMO the conclusions are relevant to Jack Campbell because:
-Campbell will most likely reach the 200 games number next season (so to your question above Campbell, would be counted as a comparator a few years from now).
-Many (most?) of the seasons included in the data set were played by goalies who had not yet reached 200 games.
-The conclusions are likely generalizable to goalies outside this data set (though that has not been tested yet to make a conclusion either way).
I spoke to this in the post you replied to and the one i was unable to post until today.
The goalie ages I think are most relevant to making an aging performance curve have very little bias based on either young or older ages.
The peak age for goalies in the data set was 28, with 52 seasons.
All ages from 27 through 33 had at least 44 goalie seasons.
All ages from 25 through 35 had at least 30 goalie seasons.
Survivorship bias is playing a role at the tails of the data set for sure (and my original post talked about how many goalies and at what ages fell out of the league after their crap seasons), but I think the data show that it’s not playing much of a role in the middle parts of the data set that I think the most accurate slopes are coming from.
If you read my post (I think the one you’re replying to here) you’d see that:
“Ages 30, 31, 32
Season before (0) .000
Shitty season (-) .015
Season after (0) .000”
So the average ‘crap season’ was 15 SV% points below league average. Book ended by seasons exactly at league average SV%.
Campbell was above league average in 21-22, but his SV% this past season was 16 points below average. So I think the averages from the data set match Campbell’s crap season very well.
No the data isn’t weighted for games played, so the average of your 2 hypothetical goalies would be .907.
Now goalie aging curves.
Using the same data set I’ve described (all goalies who played 200+ games between 07-08 and 22-23 – seasons >20 games included – SV% normalized to league average) here is the distribution of seasons by goalie age (as of Sept. 25th).
Age #Goalies SV%
20 —– 1 — plus .010
21 —– 3 — plus .004
22 —– 10 — plus .002
23 —– 22 — plus .001
24 —– 27 — minus .001
25 —– 33 — plus .004
26 —– 40 — plus .004
27 —– 46 — plus .004
28 —– 52 — plus .003
29 —– 49 — plus .003
30 —– 44 — plus .003
31 —– 44 — even .000
32 —– 44 — even .000
33 —– 45 — plus .001
34 —– 37 — minus .002
35 —– 31 — even .000
36 —– 21 — minus .006
37 —– 12 — minus .002
38 —– 10 — minus .002
39 —– 9 — even .000
40 —– 5 — plus .004
41 —– 4 — minus .004
42 —– 4 — minus .003
43 —– 1 — plus .006
44 —– 0 —
45 —– 1 — minus .006
Unsurprisingly SV% peaks in the mid/late 20’s. It drops off a few points but remains pretty stable through age 35.
The number of goalies playing in the league is also fairly stable from age 25 through age 35 (>30 goalie seasons for those years).
Aging curves post #2 (which I was unable to post yesterday):
So aging curves. I’m actually going to do linear fits to the data rather than curves.
Aging curves make intuitive sense, but if you look at the SV% numbers for the guys who are playing there is no clear cliff (the cliff appears to be more with guys leaving the league). If you fit the data with a curve, you are forcing SV% for the young/old tails of the data to plummet, and that isn’t what the data shows.
Edit: seems that my post itself is the problem for some reason. No clue why.
So the question is how to fit the data, which can be done multiple ways.
If you include all of the data the slope is .00035 SV% points per season (so a goalie should be expected to lose .001 SV% points about every 3 years he ages.
If you instead include only the years with at least 5 goalies (ages 22 to 40) the slope is again .00035 per year.
With 10+ goalie years (ages 22 to 38) the slope increases to .00040
With 20+ goalie years (ages 23-36) the slope is .00041
For 30+ goalie years (ages 25-25) the slope increases more to .00056
And for 40+ goalie years (ages 26-33) the slope is .00058
— This is good stuff. I wonder if anyone can find out : how many goalies over time start more than say 10 games then retire the next year: 5 a year?
— How do you factor for all the Koskis and Smith for instance, who sucked, then they are out of the league.
— Assuming those punted goalies get replaced generally by better goalies : your findings don’t capture this
— I like your analysis but if Campbell sucks next year he will be done and no longer part of the curve. How many goalies who started more than 20 games with GAA >.890 get cut the next year?
— How do we know he doesn’t have an injury that requires a long rehab, or has compromised his movement?
“How do you factor for all the Koskis and Smith for instance, who sucked, then they are out of the league”.
Smith’s last season had a .915 save % (well above the league average save %), and a record of 16-9-2 while battling injuries at the age of 40. He was also 0.913 in the playoffs, which was 7th among 20 goalies who played more than 3 games in the playoffs.
Smith is not out of the league because he “sucked”.
Not sure the exact answer, but since the year 2000 there are close to 200 goalies who’ve played in the NHL but played less than 30 games. Looks like only about 50 who played between 10-30 games, so probably less than 5 a year who retired the next season
I used 200 games a a cutoff to remove the guys you speak of. Koskinen is in that group.
Mike Smith actually played 670 career games with a .912 SV% though. A very good goalie, and he’s responsible for a number of the 35 and older seasons listed above that are propping up the average for those ages.
Not sure how to answer this.
I didn’t quite look at that – I looked at SV% 10 points below league average. None of the 15 age 30-32 goalies who had a season like that were out of the league the following year.
We don’t know that, but it hasn’t been reported anywhere.
I would argue that the slopes based on 30+ goalie ages (ages 25-35) or 40+ goalie (ages 26-33) should be the most accurate because:
-The SV% data are very clearly more linear than curved for those core ages
-Those ages have the least attrition due to retirement/injury
-Also of note, those ages also have the steepest slopes in terms of SV% loss with age
So the conclusion from this would be that goalies should expect to lose on average 0.5-0.6 SV% points per season as they age. IE – a shade more than .001 off their SV% every two years.
And there isn’t really any abrupt cliff. Age 36 would be the closest we have to one. And perhaps more relevant to the cliff, goalies don’t seem to start dropping out of the league until ages 34/35/36.
As a for instance, there were more 35 year-old goalies in this dataset than 24 year-old goalies. (and the 35 year-old goalies performed slightly better than the 24 year-olds as well, for what that’s worth).
I was posting about goalies yesterday but wasn’t able to post on Lowetie.ca for part of the evening so wasn’t able to finish. I’ll re-post some stuff from yesterday as well as finishing what I wasn’t able to – I hope that’s OK LT.
First a Coles Notes version of how goalies fared before vs. after having a crap season (which I defined as >10 SV% points below league average).
The conclusion was that goalies who have a crap season on average return to their previous level of play (SV%) the following the crap season.
The short explanation of what I did is: I took all 200+ game goalies in the years NST has data (07-08 to present). Got each season’s SV% for those goalies (>20 game seasons), annotated each year with the goalies age, and normalized SV% to the league average for that year. The detailed version is in yesterdays thread here: https://lowetide.ca/2023/05/30/one-year-from-now/#comment-1221330
Goalies between 27 and 35 years old as a group had an identical SV% (relative to league) in the seasons immediately before and after the crap season.
If you break it down by age:
Ages 27-29 .002 better after the crap season
Ages 30-32 identical before and after
Ages 33-35 .002 worse after the crap season
None of the 15 goalies between ages 30-32 fell out of the league/sample after their poor season (though there were 5/15 goalies between ages 33-35 who did fall out after their crap season).
So quite surprisingly, this data suggests that a goalie having a really crap season means almost nothing about how they will perform going forward (ie – on average they revert to exactly what they were before the poor season). Huh.
https://twitter.com/friedgehnic/status/1663929269876060160?s=61&t=WWzo5XOO0SDsOISFpfGKMg
This is getting wrapped up, as expected. Announcement today, media conference tomorrow for Brad Treliving as TOR GM
So we can look forward to seeing Auston Matthews going deep next spring… for an American team?
Okay then.
— I thought I’d share that I only realized this morning that Brad Treliving is the son Jim. I’m probably the only person on the blog that didn’t know that!
— A few years ago I was playing this ultra exclusive golf course that I got invited to. All big shooters then me. We got a lightning call off the course so there were about 8 of us standing around in a circle shooting the breeze. Jim knew his group and a few guys in our group : they were all members.
— So I had nuthin’ and just listened. Jim extends his hand out to me after a minute or two and says “hi I’m Jim”. Just a small thing but he recognized that I wasn’t engaged and he had the presence to include me in the circle. Just a kind gesture and reflection of who he is was my take away.
That’s all I got today.
Why are Vegas in the finals for the 2nd time in 3 years, while Oilers continue to get booted out?
I read a good article about Canadian teams in the Globe and Mail. The writer was mentioning how Vegas turn their roster over with out any concern for ought but performance on ice etc. Meanwhile Canadian teams sell snake oil to their subservient fans lol you know that sort of stuff.
Vegas is in their 2nd final in 6 years.
Vegas have the advantage of being a place most players would like to go to. Part of that is competitiveness, but also living in Las Vegas would be a good experience for some players and their lifestyles.
Lets be honest, all things equal, a good amount of players and even people would choose to live in Las Vegas, or Florida, or New York or LA rather than Edmonton. Part of being able to acquire and keep good players is loyalty and being a classy organization that shows their players respect.
I can imagine a fair few players in the league at the end of their careers evaluating how Marc-Andre Fleury was treated by Vegas, and how Duncan Keith or Jason Demers was treated by Edmonton and that might play a factor in a decision to end their careers here.
— yeah these things fascinate me. Basically though it’s about winning. Edmonton was a way crappier place to live when they were winning Cups but they got stud free agents
— Detroit pretty crummy too but when they were wining everybody wanted to go there (Pitts same)
— Yeah all things being equal over time most millionaire 20 somethings would choose those Sunny places. That plus the Oilers having been a joke for more than a decade: there is always an over pay to come to places like Edmonton (or Calgary or Winnipeg)
Which stud free agents? Free agency was 32 then. Can’t think of any I’d call a stud.
— fair enough : the MacT Kruslenskis Muni Gregg not studs. And players were more chattel back then. But they always brought in guys no problem when they were winning. When Florida sucked no one wanted to join them. Winning still matters as a destination.
— The overpay in term and or dollars and not trade for Edmonton is a handicap to be sure.
There are a lot of factors that go into where players want to play as Free agents or willing to move to with NTC/NMC
Some are things like climate and weather. Now personally, I love the cold weather and snow, and so I love living in Edmonton. Players like Ekholm would also be drawn here for that too, but there are tons of people who prefer the warmer climates, and sometimes you just can’t convince them otherwise. Those players will never come here no matter what.
There are so many factors that go into where these players want to play, and some will always be lost to us because they don’t like the cold, the night-life isn’t as exciting as a NY or LA, or for any other number of reasons.
It also can’t be denied that taxes are higher here in Canada than in the States. Teams in states like Florida and Tampa Bay enjoy an advantage because of their tax structure, but then again, Alberta enjoys that advantage over other teams in Canada too. Still, if its all about the money, here is a comparison using tax calculators:
Mcdavid’s $12.5M salary, after taxes, comes out to $6.2M
Kucherov’s $9.5M salary, after taxes, comes out to $5.7M
Now I’m not starting a tax debate, I know theres more that goes into all of this than the raw numbers, but still, thats a big difference in salary, but small difference in take-home, and that plays a factor.
Somebody said one time that a big factor for players is how far away the arena is from prospective houses. Nobody likes a long commute, and hockey players are human.
At the end of the day though, the best guarantee to win players over is to win. Players would play in Death Valley if it meant they could win a cup. Even though we might still lose out on some players for reasons outside our control, we can control being a classy, well-respected organization that not only focuses on winning, but actually wins.
Vegas was the benefactor of an incredible expansion draft that befuddled GMs around the league. And they took full advantage. Well played.
They also game the salary cap (LITR) to full value. Also well played.
Oil need McDavid to miss half a season. Kidding!!
They leveraged their expansion draft windfall and have exceptional skill in evaluating players and roster construction with elite players in all key positions.
Their centre depth is exceptional. They have two elite defensemen and the rest of their D is very big and skilled.
Their only issue has been finding and keeping goaltending but the rest of their lineup is so skilled and deep that it doesn’t matter all that much.
Most importantly, they don’t fall in love with their players and will act to improve the lineup at every opportunity.
It helps that they don’t have even one bad contract on the books while many competing teams have several.
The Bells! The Bells!!
The bottom line is cities don’t win orgs do. The Knights have a better GM and have had better coaches. The expansion advantage is over by now, MacCrimmon makes better teams than our guys and as you said they aren’t sentimental
Players don’t seem to mind, winning trumps all, they are pro athletes in the world’s best league, not amateurs. It sucks when pals move on, but if anybody got too out of joint about it I’d be sending them on as well. Maturity is necessary to get far as a team
Look at how Ekholm spoke of his move. A few years of speculation and it happened, he says glad it’s done finally and I feel great going to a team closer to winning a cup – the point of it all, or should be. Mature and accepting of the reality of the sport. Don’t worry about what you can’t control, play good hockey
Listened to an interesting discussion yesterday about the NHL moving toward an NBA like reality where the players begin to dictate which teams will be successful.
Players are beginning to realize they are the product and will decide the fate of teams. Tkachuk a good example.
It will be interesting to follow what players like Matthews, Marner, Elias Pettersson and others do as they approach free agency.
A massive contributing factor to a Canadian team not winning a Stanley since the 90’s is the fact that ownership can expect to be financially successful just by being relatively competitive.
I mean, the Oilers were relatively profitable during the decade of darkness — that wouldn’t happen in most any US market.
So, while US teams desperately need long playoff runs and championships to be financially feasible Canadian teams don’t.
That doesn’t mean ownership is undermining management to save a few dollars — most are more than willing to spend to the cap and invest in management and the rest — but there’s a degree of safe, conservative thinking when you know things will be okay financially.
So, US franchises may act with a greater degree of desperation — be more willing to embrace new strategies such as creating robust analytics teams, hire free-thinkers, and sweep away those who don’t perform to a far greater degree than Canadian teams.
There’s an advantage to markets such as LA, Chicago, and New York in attracting players and management of course — but that alone can’t account for such a long streak between Canadian cup wins.
It’s something more foundational. A difference in corporate culture that provides US teams with a real advantage when it comes to winning championships.
Nailed it this is the actual rub here. Only a few teams aren’t vulnerable to financial issues if they aren’t good enough for a while. Thankfully ours is one, sadly it can reduce or inhibit that final drive to the top
Despite owners being rich, rich guys don’t get that way burning piles of cash for a vanity project. Teams are businesses and have to be solvent. That buying sports franchises has become so in vogue is because they can produce a lot of profit in valuations and in operating. Sucking minimizes that
An exceptional post.
And I would add there are substantial tax benefits in playing for some non-Canadian teams.
Taxes contribute to the issue, as does the draw of living in NY or LA as someone making millions a year — but not as much as other factors.
Championship teams are no longer built via free-agency or bullying smaller market teams to make trades they don’t want to make — the Rangers can’t replicate what happened in ’94.
And hockey superstars tend to stay with the teams that drafted them — this isn’t the NBA, at least not yet. And not every star wants to move south. Ekholm is a recent example, but (non US) players and their spouses have families they want to remain accessible to, or simply prefer the lifestyle offered in Canada.
I wouldn’t accept a job that had me moving to Florida. That’s personal preference, but not a unique one.
Championship teams’ foundations are still built via the draft. So while LA may have an advantage in signing a UFA it doesn’t explain the dearth of Canadian Stanley Cup wins.
At least up until now it’s been the differences in corporate culture. Everyone outside of Arizona is striving to compete. But while US teams are willing to take risks, to experiment, to push the rules to the breaking point, Canadian teams don’t have the same desperate drive to do so.
I agree with most of this but we are seeing a growing trend of elite players choosing where they want to play, draft be damned.
Tkachuk and Gaudreau are recent examples but there are others.
Multiple players have forced their way out of Columbus, Buffalo and Winnipeg and there are some troubling signs in Vancouver.
And we will soon see what happens in Calgary with all those pending free agents.
Question is though:
Do players want out because of taxes and the lack of sandy beaches? Or long-running cultures of losing?
Would Winnipeg be facing the same pending exodus if they had a conference championship or two?
Vancouver is one of the most desirable cities on the planet — especially if you can afford the real estate. Are players leaving due to tax rate? Or because the team is losing, and feels to lack any sort of direction?
Obviously motivations will vary on an individual basis.
But Winnipeg is reportedly on top of the NTC list and Inthink that’s due more to location than anything.
In Vancouver, it’s much more about the lack of team success as most players want to play for a winner.
Why did Vegas miss the playoffs last season and Oilers were in the WCF?
IIRC, Vegas had some bad stretches of injury early in the season and ran out of runway to make up the difference and get a ticket to “the Dance”… anyone else remember it that way, or is it just my old age kicking in?
Well, yes, injures were indeed the reason.
Of course, injuries limiting the effectiveness of many Oilers were a prime reason they did not advance farther
Didn’t they also shit the bed down the stretch with almost everyone healthy?
Yeah their last 9 games last season were:
4-5 OTL to Canucks
1-6 L to Flames
0-4 L to Oilers
2-3 L to Devils
4-3 OTW vs Capitals
4-5 SOL to Sharks
2-3 SOL to Stars
3-4 SOL to Blackhawks
7-4 W over Blues (IIRC this was after they’d been eliminated)
So they’d collected 6 points over the previous 8 games (1W-3L-4OTL) and only 4 of the 8 opponents were playoff teams.
— Is this a serious question? Eichel Pac Stone Martinez missed half seasons, Dadonov debacle, they used about 10 goalies
If healthy, they would have run away with the division,
With those initials, it’s clear that Phil Kemp was destined for PK right from the start.
Likewise with Pevan Pouchard.