This is the list of distant bells from October 2016. It was the first team in forever to make the playoffs, and several of the names on this list went on to play NHL games. The team had been drafting heavily for several years (really since 2010) and had a large pipeline of talent. In the four drafts leading up to October 2016, the Oilers chose 31 players. In the four most recent drafts? Edmonton used 19 to stock the prospect pool.
How many made it? Really made it? And how many from this year’s distant bells have a chance?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: 9 bold Edmonton Oilers predictions for 2023-24
- Lowetide: The NHL offseason’s 5 most risky moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: USHL has produced some of NHL’s top talent. Is it hockey’s best junior league?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and their dilemma at centre
- Lowetide: NHL teams that are best positioned to take advantage of the 2024 free-agent watershed
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
HOW MANY KIDS MADE IT IN 2016?
From the distant bells above, we can include Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones as successful NHL players. There were a few (Patrick Russell notably) who saw some NHL action and several (Nick Ellis, Joey Laleggia) who were probably close for recall but didn’t get there.
Among the “uncertain” group that fall, Jujhar Khaira managed a solid NHL career that has now run 336 games. Tyler Pitlick is at 386, Anton Slepyshev played in 102 and could have played more. Drake Caggiula was a rookie pro that fall and has played in 282 NHL games. Jesse Puljujarvi was on the uncertain list right to the end, when Kris Versteeg signed in Calgary. What a mess. Jordan Oesterle, Laurent Brossoit and Matt Benning were on the list.
Including both ‘distant’ and ‘uncertain’ prospects who were bubbling under at the time, I count nine or 10 (depending on Slepyshev’s inclusion) who made it to the NHL for significant time.
HOW MANY KIDS NOW?
The top list is distant bells, the bottom one is uncertain Oilers. How many candidates are there? Among the distants, I would say Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov, Jayden Grubbe, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Olivier Rodrigue, Phil Kemp and Max Wanner have a chance. That’s eight men. Among the second group, I count Lane Pederson, James Hamblin, Raphael Lavoie, Markus Niemelainen, so 12 in total with a chance. Will half of them make it?
In the fall of 2017, I had the following names from the two lists as being NHL prospects:
- Matt Benning 443
- Tyler Pitlick 386
- Jordan Oesterle 349
- Jujhar Khaira 336
- Jesse Puljujarvi 334
- Drake Caggiula 282
- Ethan Bear 251
- Caleb Jones 217
- Laurent Brossoit 117
- Anton Slepyshev 102
- William Lagesson 60
- Patrick Russell 59
- Markus Niemelainen 43
- Tyler Benson 38
- Griffin Reinhart 37
- Josh Currie 22
- Dillon Simpson 3
- Bogdan Yakimov 1
- Dylan Wells 1
- Kyle Platzer
- Greg Chase
- Jere Sallinen
- Nick Ellis
- David Musil
- Braden Christoffer
- Eetu Laurikainen
Let’s say 10 made it, from the list of 25. That’s 40 percent of the total pool playing in 100+ NHL games. If there are 12 in the pool this season, and 40 percent make it, that’s five names. Your assignment for today: Name the five. Note: Chances are more than five make it to the NHL for a time. Why? Far less competition.
New for The Athletic: Unpacking Oilers’ decision to hire Rick Pracey, part ways with Tyler Wright
https://theathletic.com/4797557/2023/08/22/oilers-rick-pracey-tyler-wright/
The Edmonton Oilers are closing in on a two-year extension with their last remaining RFA, defenseman Evan Bouchard. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports the deal will be worth around $3.9MM per season.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2023/08/edmonton-oilers-expected-to-sign-evan-bouchard.html
Just as expected.
He is going to be an absolute massive value over the next two seasons.
If he learns to defend adequately, which is a pretty good bet.
Good Morning LT,
it does not appear to be an option to comment on this morning’s Broberg article on The Athletic….
There are six comments currently.
Random thoughts on scouting.
I always thought that the Senators had an underrated scouting department. I am not even sure who actually runs their amature scouting department.
The Senators always seem to find a Drake Batherson or Pageau in the 4rth round, basically the type of player we never seem to draft. Or a Mark Stone in the 6th round.
Now I’ll go all Any Rooney and muse why you never hear anyone from the Senators scouting staff being hired elsewhere.
I’d imagine with an analytics department, it would go a long way towards fine-tuning your scouting department with the sorts of things to watch that predict success.
We know, for example, that the Bolts, rightly or wrongly, seem to target players that are ultra high on “compete” types.
Tulsky’s interview was interesting though he’s keeping his trade secrets.
I look forward to this new era under Jeff Jackson in which the Oilers strive to do everything best in class!
Don’t really have much of an opinion of Wright out and Pracey in, but I do remember an anecdote from the Nathan MacKinnon draft.
Word is Joe Sakic was high on Seth Jones, but Patrick Roy put his stamp on the team by demanding Nate after having coached against him in the Q.
Looks like Jackson didn’t need to give Wright 5 years.
My prediction for rankings of number of games players leaders of this group and MHL roster spot in 5 years:
1- Bourgault – roster by 24-25
Top 6
2 – Grubbe – roster by 25-26
4th Line C
3 – Wanner – roster by 25-26
2nd pairing upside, probable 5th D
4 – Tullio – roster by 26-27
Bottom 6/13th forward
5 – Petrov – Russian factor
Unwillingness to work on 200’ game will hold him back and he will be in KHL in 3 years
6 – Rodrigue – roster by 26-27
NHL Back-up
7 – Kemp – 7-8 Dman somewhere by 26-27
Foot speed hurts him
8 – Pederson – fringe NHLer
4th line/13th forward, will be passed by prospects next season
9 – Hamblin – AHLer w/Utility
Size and lack of scoring will limit opportunities
10- Lavoie – Tweener, speed & durability issues
11 – Niemelainen – Tweener, durability & puck-moving issues
I hope they all take a step and are successful, and injuries to them and their competition for roster spots will always play a part.
I won’t have an opinion on Akey for 2 years.
Savoie concerns me with his durability and lack of speed. He reminds me of Benson in that he has 1 great offensive skill, but I see him as either a high end AHLer or in Europe in 4 seasons.
Big difference is that Benson never had an elite skill and Savoie has one that could be elite at the pro and NHL level.
Passing
Savoie possesses a great shoot, no doubt, as do Lavoie and Petrov, but until one of them score 40 goals in the NHL, I’d argue that none of are elite shooters.
None of them have led their previous leagues in scoring either, it would be very difficult to argue elite.
Petrov ranked 15th in 2021-22 season and 48th in 2022-23.
Lavoie was 26th in AHL scoring in 2022-23.
Savoie was 4th in the NCAA in 2021-22, tied with a teammate. Nice ranking, a good total, but in the recent history of the NCAA, 23 goals is not an elite number.
Benson was a very good passer, agreed, his top skill, but I don’t think it was elite to the level that Savoie’s shot could be, at the NHL level.
Benson could pass the puck. But he never shot the puck. One cannot make an NHL living in the bottom six passing the puck to players for whom scoring goals is somewhat random, regardless of how good the pass.
Benson was an NHL player with the puck on his stick, but not an NHL player when the puck was not on his stick. Hockey is mostly played without the puck on your stick.
*NHL, not MHL, lol
FWIW, IMO Grubbe will become a better version of what some hope Pederson will be.
Let’s call him Boyd Gordon.
I’ve got Tulio on a quicker pace to the NHL than you (possible cup of coffee this season).
Is there any indication that Petrov isn’t willing to work on his 200-foot game? From what I’ve read and heard he is very coachable and willing
I think if Phil Kemp is going to have an NHL career, it will start this season with games – a 7/8 in short order, not three seasons from now.
In my opinion.
I am hoping for the best, but these are just my predictions, I hope I am wrong. He oozes skill.
Asked and answered, sir.
And the next person to be Chopped is ….. I’ll go with Goalie Coach Dustin Schwartz.
Not a bad bet but the brother team doing “Analytics and Travel Secretaries” are likely on shaky ground,
And deservedly so. He was a key factor in choosing Campbell over Kuemper.
Courtesy of Daniel Nugent-Bowman:
“In asking around, the Oilers like Campbell better than Kuemper. They feel like Campbell’s a more consistent netminder, his highs in performance are higher and his rebound control is better. Goaltending coach Dustin Schwartz studied hours and hours worth of video and was a key factor in the recommendation of Campbell over Kuemper. The Oilers were also more concerned about injuries with Kuemper than with Campbell.”
https://theathletic.com/3669811/2022/10/08/edmonton-oilers-chychrun-trade-mailbag/
Mike McKenna on Jack Campbell.
https://oilersnation.com/news/nhl-notebook-mike-mckenna-digs-into-jack-campbells-struggles-jakob-chychrun-nearing-return-from-injury-and-more
This from a while back but McKenna was on the radio last week with much the same analysis.
Funny that this new DAS hire happens the day after LT’s blog post throwing shade on Wright’s 1st-round record.
LT is clearly the puppetmaster behind this move.
I read the past two articles like Wright was foregone conclusion to be gone,
LT is either clairvoyant or understand Oiler Hockey better than most.
I think possibly both.
David Staples has a look at what may have triggered the move including the poor ranking of the Oilers prospect pool in numerous rankings.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-say-good-bye-to-head-scout-tyler-wright-bring-in-former-avs-scout-who-drafted-nate-mackinnon
I was struck by this part of the Staples piece:
” Holloway may well make a splash this coming year in the NHL after an up-and-down rookie season. Schaefer obviously had value as he was a key piece in bringing in Ekholm. There’s also a number of promising wingers drafted by Wright, namely Bourgault, Savoie, Petrov, Berezkin and Tulio. All but Berezkin will play next season in Bakersfield. If even one of those players hits as a useful third-line winger in the NHL one day, Wright’s drafting record will look much brighter. But it’s too early to tell if he aced it or not as the top Oilers scout.”
Pinning your hopes on that one player might become “a useful third line winger one day” is pretty sad.
Is there more of a glut in the NHL than useful third line winger?
Staples piece would be different if the Oilers had higher draft picks than were obtained under Wright’s tenure.
I doubt Staples, either from lack of know-how or needing to release a piece on it, would have done a normalization of avg draft pick/return graph and rated Wright on it.
so as much to say, are teams with comparable draft pick positioning exceeding or (not) the Oilers so far in procurement under Wright’s tenure which needed termination.
Or the more likely, imo, position. a PoHO want’s his guys, the reason he was hired for, to take the reins in the future regardless, unless extremely superior, of performance.
I’ll take the latter.
Even just visually, the Oilers have been >20th overall the past 3-4 years, and therefore have >20th prospect pool. Lack of excellence in avg draft position isn’t proof of underperformance, but is lack of overperformance.
Dallas and the Oilers have had similar records in the Wright era but have a far better prospect pool as an example.
https://theathletic.com/4794532/2023/08/22/dallas-stars-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings/?source=user_shared_article
I don’t think we can say Wright “hit” on one draft pick in his tenure.
Even teams like Tampa, Toronto and Colorado who have been dealing picks and prospects for years are on somewhat better shape.
A part of this is having a GM that consistently bleeds assets. Kenny overpays almost always in everything. Stripping the system out. Combined with unsexy drafted players it’s a conundrum. A good dealing GM would take the se y player and trade him for what he needs
If the org doesn’t have people that can see what they want and are mostly right, in making deals it’s a trifecta. Example drafting Zegras and flipping him for a need. So not Oilers right now
Yep.
Yeah, Oilers prospect pool suffers from Holland giving away draft picks like candy, 2 picks for AA, a pick for Green, etc, etc.
Your first example to compare drafting records to counter Faustkarz post misses a very important fact. Dallas may have had a similar record but in those 4 years of drafting, Dallas’ Scouts had 27 picks, while Wright only had 19 picks to give advice on and more importantly Dallas had 11 picks in the first 3 rounds those seasons, while Edmonton only had 5. That’s not Wright’s doing. And trading Schaefer impacted the Oilers prospect ranking negatively too (but really helped their current NHL roster).
This is nonsense.
Thing is Dallas hit on its early picks and the Oilers did not.
Pronman:
“Dallas doesn’t have the deepest pipeline you’ll ever see, but their top four players are very good, between Lian Bichsel, Thomas Harley, Logan Stankoven and Wyatt Johnson who has a chance to be one of the very best draft picks of the last few years.”
The Oilers could have drafted three of the four but didn’t.
And I’ll wager that all of them will exceed Reid Shaefer in NHL impact.
The Oilers have been drafting potential middle six wingers while Dallas lately has been focusing on the rarest of all birds, RHD, selecting three of them in one recent draft.
Jim Lites knows what he’s doing and has for a long time.
Nonsense is including Thomas Harley, who was drafted in 2019, in a discussion about Wright’s draft record with the Oilers which started in 2020.
More nonsense is you offering to bet on anything given your track record of reneging.
again, I mean what I stated is exactly what is the problem with Staples or You
literally learn to wrangle past data from the past few drafts under Wrights tenure
you then weight those picks by weight given per draft pick by average
you then normalize results of pick/year across all teams
you then determine okay, which teams are oversucceeding in which ones are the other side
I would happen to believe, the oilers are with 1 std of performance of the mean
I would also say 1 std to mean performance in drafting does not win a stanley cup
kapiche?
Wright’s draft record from Detroit wasn’t very good either. His first round picks included Dylan Larkin (very good pick), Yevgeni Svechnikov (bust), Dennis Cholowski (bust), Michael Rasmussen (meh), Joe Valeno (bust), Filip Zadina (bust). I was not excited when Holland brought him in as DAS. He had the opportunity to redeem himself in Edmonton but didn’t exactly knock it out of the park. I really hope that the new DAS places a greater emphasis on junior and college scoring rates in subsequent drafts.
Veleno re-signed today for 1 year $885K
https://detroithockeynow.com/2023/08/22/joe-veleno-detroit-red-wings-steve-yzerman-one-year-deal/
I don’t have a strong opinion on the DAS change- I know very little about the new hire and I think that Wright did an “OK”, not great job. I think there are some strong picks outside the first round, in particular in the mid-late rounds (Petrov, Berezkin, Wanner, Tulio) but early results aren’t great on Holloway (vis-a-vis a couple others that were on the board and rated higher generally and that have had more success to this point: namely Mercer) and the Bourgault pick will be discussed for a while.
With that said, from many accounts, generally, the 1st round is on the GM and he generally listens to his scouts for the depth rounds so maybe Wright was doing a bang-up job?
If Holland, most certainly, is not returning after this final year; maybe going the Poile route with handling the draft before handing off the reins. This is just setting up his room for his future GM, whoever it may be.
Wright may be Hollands guy, but he’s not the future’s guy, regardless of results. New hire in a position he has no experience in, seems likely he is going to replace most current pieces for others he find supports his vision for the team moving forward.
DAS first, GM next, and I hope for Woodcroft’s sake he continues progress and equals or exceeds last two years or he is up next.
That’s a bit backward.
Shouldnt a new GM have input into the new DAS?
A DAS’s job is a year behind what a GMs purpose is; hiring a new DAS now for the 2024 draft instead of hiring a new one for 2025 is ahead of the ball. Hollands job and focus right now is in-season work not next summer. That is the next GMs work.
He did not want Wright handling next years draft, so better now than post-new GM hire to replace him no?
a year ahead*
I can see that point but a prospective GM, especially an experienced one, would most likely have a pretty good handle on the scouting community and would have his own preferences.
On the other hand, Jackson may already have a good idea who will replace Holland and is just setting the table.
I believe most likely the latter hence the “bold decision”
Why hire a GM if he would disagree with your scouting choices?
I think Jackson having much more control as PoHO is being used wisely than the dictatorship of a GM to begin with, he did not take the job to be just a face of the organization.
so to say, maybe a GM should not be given full control of “actual hockey operations” but is meant to actually manage the talent given to him.
A founder of a startup has ultimate say of who works beneath him, a GM refusing employment due to control from hire up is not the modern world.
He does. He’s currently an assistant GM. I don’t know which one it’ll be, but I’m 90% sure the next GM is already in the organization influencing who the next DAS will be.
Entirely possible but do the names Gretzky, Coffey and Holland remind you of anything?
Rick Pracey?
— Make no mistake it’s an important move for the new Sheriff in town. Not that there was any doubt about Hollands future with the team after his contract expires.
— we have no idea if it ends up being a good hire or not but for sure it’s a hire not based on “bringing in my guys”.
— Also a good sign that he was already gainfully employed and had to be recruited
— On a human level it’s a tough business. Tyler by all accounts a great dude. Family guy. Now has to scramble in the mid-part of his career: with just a meh track record that is mostly because he didn’t get many high picks.
Holland brought Wright and Archie Henderson with him as the Directors of Amateur and Pro Scouting respectively.
Both now gone.
Henderson was a disaster.
Didn’t mind Wright’s drafting in any round past 1 and liked most of his 1st rounders.
It’s a new day.
Analytics department creation should be next on the list or close.
We wait.
I guess Jackson didn’t like Pronman’s prospect ranking report. Or he’s really bullish on Jesper Wallstedt.
Wow.
The #Oilers have mutually parted ways with Tyler Wright & announced Rick Pracey as their new Director of Amateur Scouting.
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1694073631532556293
Interesting that there was no smoke on this one at all (at least as far as I’ve heard, and this site is probably Oilers draft/prospect central). The Oilers seem to be running a tighter ship these days.
There was just a little bit of smoke the day before.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Wright becomes one of Jackson’s first targets for potential significant change.”
August 21, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg
https://heavyhockey.com/2023/08/21/jacksons-potential-impact-on-the-oilers-part-two-amateur-scouting/
But yes, they did keep it amazingly quiet.
Well, Jackson didn’t take long to make an impact, did he?
Methinks this is a positive sign that Jackson is going to be significantly more active than Bobby Nicholson.
A potato would be significantly more active than Bobby
Or a hamburger
Results matter just a few days ago the posse was all over any Oiler fan that questioned the drafting and also the developing of our picks the last 4 years. Sometimes you need to take the blinders off and see the big picture
I take it you like the results Rick Pracey produced in Colorado?
Brandon Hagel 8X$6.5 million in Tampa.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/lightning-sign-brandon-hagel-to-eight-year-52m-contract-extension/
Hagel v Foegele
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&p1=8479542&p2=8477998&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
So Foegele is better?
Bunz, Muir, K.Bouchard, Abney, Zharkov.
Lavoie, Niemo, Bourgault, Tullio and Petrov.
Jagr was going to be an Oiler in 08?
Dammit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REsXMkdvAZo
Excuse me as I think about people who for years and years said Jagr would never go to a Canadian city, especially a cold one. Only for it to turn out he almost went to Edmonton and later chose to go to Calgary.
Jagr played for so long with so many teams, I feel like a Jagr number (similar to a Bacon number or Erds number) should be a thing.
I agree that all the distant bells are very much so vis-a-vis making the team out of camp – they are destined for re-assignment.
With that said, I do think that Bourgault, Kemp and even Tulio could very well see NHL time this season.
I think Tulio getting a cup of coffee has a real chance – he was so good when he was on one of his heaters last season that he could battle Bourgault a call-up among the “real prospects” and perhaps the first call-up over the veterans like Malone and Hamblin.
I’ve got to think Ralph Lavoie grabs that 12F spot over Lane Pederson (and Brandon Sutter). It would be a big disappointment if he didn’t have a big camp and produce in those early exhibition games.
How about this for a bold prediction… P Kane and Toews sign with Chicago just before the trade deadline for the league minimum and full NMC, NTC, and then Chicago retains 50% on both of them in a trade with Edmonton. All agreed to before they sign.
They would need to clear waivers first and someone else is going to pick them up off the waiver wire.
If it’s before the trade deadline I don’t believe they would as UFAs. RFAs need to be signed by December 1 or they would need to clear waivers.
I was just reading through some of the CBA and I don’t think that is the case. They would be roster players and not get sent down. Waivers only happen when a player is sent down to the minors. Is there a deadline to sign players each year?Restricted Free Agents who do not sign contracts by December 1 of a given year will be ineligible to play within the league for the remainder of that season.
Unrestricted free agents signed after the trade deadline are eligible to play during the regular season, but ineligible to play during the playoffs.
Your interpretation is correct – Kane/Toews would not have to pass through waivers as they would be signing as UFAs
I think the confusion is coming from players being signed to NHL contracts that have played in OTHER professional leagues that season- they DO have to pass through waivers
No, they would not need to clear waivers.
I’ve wondered about this scenario. What would it cost Edmonton do you think? Two 2nds?
If they sign at league min. and Chicago retains 50%, then yes, probably two 2nds sounds about right. Unless Toews and Kane negotiate ahead of time and say they won’t sign with Chicago unless Chicago already has a trade in place with Edmonton. In that case, it could be cheaper. and because they’re UFAs right now, they have freedom to talk to both sides to negotiate a deal beforehand. I”m not sure if anything in the CBA would prohibit this sort of thing.
Lavoie, Grubbe, Petrov, Tullio, Pederson, Akey, Dineen
In no particular order:
Wanner, Tullio, Bourgault, Petrov, Rodrigue.
Jayden Grubbe scored at a point=per-game pace in the WHL as a 20-year old.
He had 2 goals in 12 playoff games.
Making the NHL team? Distant bell to say the least.
Agreed – he is a B-prospect who is going to be a rookie pro – I can’t imagine he’s in the conversation at any point this season.
LT, did you not include the Musil games because it was the season before and doesn’t qualify for the piece today?
I believe he played 4 NHL games in 15-16
I’m wondering if the current situation might call for a “Vegas-Like” move to get over the hump. We’ve definitely been acquiring good players and improving under Holland. Absolutely no question about that! But to steal a term from Craig MacTavish, maybe this season might require something “Bold”.
If it’s really cup or bust this year, there should be absolutely nothing off the table. The problem being, I don’t see that type of “loyalty-be-damned” card in Holland’s deck.
PS: 97 & 29 are never on the table.
Sounds like you are suggesting: trade someone with trade protection?
Possibly. These trades are not impossible though. Over the years, Vegas has managed to make big moves to get closer to a cup. And now they’re spending the summer partying with Stanley.
I know it sounds like I’m trumpeting Vegas, but I just don’t want this window to close for Edmonton because we weren’t willing to be as ruthless as the next guy.
It’s possible some of that ‘loyalty’ is coming from 97 and 29.
Yes your definitely right both are very loyal to their Wingers. Being a Coach is not easy job sometimes you have to ruffle a few feathers if you believe it’s for the betterment of the team. Woody methodically carted out the same line-up against Vegas no fresh players in for the ineffective injured.
I believe the past 3 cup champions were significantly over the cap come playoffs. Vegas, Avs and Tampa have all played the LTIR game perfectly.
While they didn’t want to see any of their stars get hurt, it was ultimately a key difference maker.
Not apropos of anything ‘bold’, just an interesting new wrinkle in the game.
It’s a copy cat League ever since St.Louis Blues beat the living shit out of a Flyers team that couldn’t defend themselves. Snider said never again and the Broad Street Bullies were born. The whole league watched the Bolts Quinea Pig how far they could stretch the grey area rules. The bar has been set so let’s say Nuge shoulder has been been a little sore the last year or so. He and the organization decide to go for surgery clean it up before it gets worse with the surgery and rehab just happening to coincide with the 1st game of the Playoffs.
I get that “players want to play” but it sure seemed like it would have been very easy and very defensible to have parked Kane on LTIR until the playoffs last year, and the team could have had cap room at the deadline for say Barbashev
All of Patrick Kane, Nikita Kucherov and Mark Stone had surgeries that at the time they occurred, the normal expected recovery time roughly and fortuitously coincided with the end of the regular season. No doctors had to go out of their way or worry about failing an investigation to opine that these players were not ready to return until that time.
The prognosis for Kane’s wrist injury at the time of the injury had him returning by the trade deadline at the latest which was normal for the type of injury. Seeing as he did recover by mid January, a doctor would be taking a very significant risk opining that Kane was unfit to play for an additional almost 3 months. Same for the rib injury he sustained Feb 17. He returned March 9, almost 5 weeks prior to the end of the regular season. For a rib injury it would be hard for all involved to find a credible reason to more than double his recovery time. A possibility, maybe, but saying it would have been very easy is not accurate.
The Blackhawks started the use of that loophole in 2015. Patrick Kane broke his collarbone and had surgery the next day, a week before the trade deadline. The prognosis after the surgery was he would be out anywhere from 6-12 weeks. He was back practising in a non-contact jersey a little after 5 weeks, and his first game was 7 weeks after the injury/surgery. Chicago was able to pick up Vermette and Timonen at the deadline without having to shed cap, then Kane was re-activated after the end of the regular season 6.5 weeks after surgery with no cap consequences.
I could see them having talks with Toews and Kane about returning to the NHL post-deadline on a cheap contract. I could also see them trading for Dumba with 50% retained.
Every single one of those loyalty be damned, ruthless Vegas trades was done with players who had modified No Trade Clauses (Fleury, Schmidt, Stasny, Pacioretty, Dadanov (which Vegas forgot to read in a really embarrassing f@#* up), Tuch (traded just before the m-NTC kicked in) and, after winning the cup while over the cap, Reilly Smith. All these players could limit who they were traded to but not prevent a trade whether they were happy about it or not.
The Oilers in question, Nuge, Hyman, Kane and Nurse, all have full no movement clauses for 2023/24. That means any trade would require the players approval. If the player doesn’t want to go, he isn’t going. And find a player with a full NMC who has ever agreed to a trade, initiated by the team, away from a bona fide cup contender. That is very unrealistic. The NMC clauses make Holland loyal whether he wants to be or not.
And just for the record, Vegas has 3 players themselves with full no move clauses (compared to Edmonton’s 5 this coming season), Eichel, Stone and Pietrangelo so they use them too. Edmonton has 2 contracts with m-NTC clauses while Vegas has 7.
You could also add that each of the Vegas players noted above were performing under (and some by a wide margin) their cap hits. On the Oilers list you note, Nurse is the only one you could argue is playing below his cap hit and yet he’s still effective and important to this team.
Campbell, who is not on your list, is the only player with a salary high enough and performance poor enough to warrant including in this discussion. At this point in time I don’t see any need or way to make the type of move that Vegas made. They had some poor contracts and managed to clear them out.
The one difference between Campbell and all of the players that Vegas traded away is that Vegas was able to easily trade way all these players and their higher salaries without either retention or adding valuable pieces to make the trades happen. With Campbell, based on his 2022/23, if the the Oilers wanted to move him, right now they would likely to have to retain some salary or add possibly pieces they don’t want to give up just to move him out.
Yeah I agree with that. I was just pointing out that he’s the only one we’d even want to get rid of at this point.
One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas will likely have no problem attracting future FAs regardless of how they treat players due to location. In Edmonton, loyalty can be a much more important tool in attracting and retaining players. A good example is how Treliving in Calgary took a hardline approach in negotiating a lot of second contracts and the Flames have paid for it with players leaving the first chance they get. Some of the deals the Oilers have signed (e.g. Nuge and Nurse) in the last few years may go a long ways in keeping Connor and Leon here long term.
Holland traded Tyson Barrie, a player he brought in and re-signed, and a player that was very well liked including by McDavid.
I don’t think loyalty to players is an issue.
The Ekholm trade itself was fairly bold: 2 1st-round pick equivalent assets plus a top 4/PP d-man signed with term.
While there is less competition at the AHL level, the NHL team is finally stacked with real NHL players.
May change the odds.
First thing that came to mind when I read that as well.
Grubbe, Bourgault, Tullio, Rodrigue, Wanner