I’ve been reading The Hockey News archive for the last couple of months, I knock off about one month a day and then maybe three months on a Saturday. I started in 1965 and I’m up to 1974. It’s a fascinating trip through my childhood, reacquainting myself with a world long forgotten. A world of JP Parise and Mike Bloom, a world of Gilles Meloche and Bobby Orr.
I don’t associate great joy (1970 & 1972 Bruins won Stanley) and great pain (1971 Bruins lost to the Montreal Canadiens) together, because highs and lows come in waves and not in chronological order.
In looking at the teams who were fabulous but did not win even one Stanley through my lifetime as a hockey fan, I think it unfair, untrue, that the winners are celebrated and the losers forgotten. The difference is often razor thin, hell the 1974 Philadelphia Flyers barely eclipsed my Bruins and that damned penalty to Bobby Orr remains a tragedy.
I’m telling you this because you need to know. The 2006 Edmonton Oilers have earned a place in your heart, even though they came up just shy. Maybe especially because they came so close and fell just short of the finish line. That 2006 Oilers club is the forgotten great team from Oilers history. You need to keep its memory alive.
I also want you to know this: The 2024 Oilers may not win the Stanley Cup. The journey is the thing. Enjoy it. It is your experience, too. These are the moments you’ll remember. Winning 16 in a row is a fantastic feat, despite the shortfall. When all is said and done, the verbal around it may suggest the loss in Vegas was part of the inspiration to win it all.
It may not happen. That doesn’t mean this team is insignificant. In fact, this version of the team looks stronger than previous incarnations due to strength in all three game states.
If I say to a Bruins fan “that wasn’t a penalty against Orr in Game Six” the answer will be “you are God damn right!” or “why did you have to bring that up?” and that memory bonds us forever.
That’s all this is, you know. An experience we can share forever with kindred spirits. Hockey, Oilers hockey, is something we love and share. Enjoy it. Remember it.
In a 32-team league, with one winner, the odds are more heavily stacked against all teams compared to the 21-team league of the 1980’s.
I think sometimes modern Oilers fans are in such a helluva hurry to be right, to remind those around them they are right, the enjoyment level seems to be entirely dependent on wins and losses. That is a regrettable outcome. Please delight in these wonderful seasons we see rolling by.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault’s season and what it means for his future
- Lowetide: What’s changed for Oilers’ Evan Bouchard in his impact season?
- DNB: Quizzing Oilers All-Star Leon Draisaitl on the top 10 NHL goalies he’s scored against
- Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
- DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
- Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
- Lowetide: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects spiked in January?
- DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: ‘We got a lot more in our group’
- Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s superb play should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
THOUGHTS
I am loving the new third line and suspect you are too. For fun, let’s list the four lines from Vegas and see how they’re going at five-on-five this season.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman: 307 mins, 64 pct goal share, 71 pct expected goal share
- Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele: 72 mins, 50 pct goal share, 60 pct expected goal share
- Holloway-McLeod-Perry: 19 mins, 0-0 goals, 69 pct expected goal share
- Janmark-Ryan-Brown: 23 mins, 0-0 goals, 57 pct expected goal share
The No. 1 line is pure adrenaline at five-on-five, Kris Knoblauch has correctly left it alone (save for that one game). There are strong options for the Draisaitl line (here) and I like the developments on the third line, too. All samples aside from the McDavid line are too small to trust, but it should be mentioned that Draisaitl-Foegele is 55 percent goal share and 59 percent expected goal share in 255 minutes.
I want to talk a little about Evander Kane. I’ve seen many on twitter hammering him, and I get that the raw numbers are disappointing. His injuries since arriving in Edmonton no doubt hindered him, and that includes some maladies this year. He’s also at an age when players, especially those who have his rugged style, begin to fade. That fade can come in a hurry (hello, Mr. Lucic). I do think it’s important that we are fair in these things.
- Kane with Connor Brown: 189 mins, 0-1-1 (.32 pts-60); 2-11 goals (15 pct)
- Kane w/o Connor Brown: 467 mins, 8-10-18 (2.31 pts-60); 21-21 goals (50 pct)
Kane is productive when away from Brown. I think his injuries have impacted performance, and he is past 30 and not the player he was five years ago. He can still play, though. He is a productive scorer this season. He is not a drag in outscoring. These things are true. Connor Brown has not been NHL-level. Another example: Darnell Nurse has a goal share of 3-8, 27 pct with Brown and is 37-27 (58 percent) without him. Mattias Ekholm is 35-27 without Connor Brown (56 percent). So, numbers are informative but we need to be careful to frame the issue correctly. I’m sure someone will pop in and offer a wrinkle on my numbers, perhaps math proof of another angle worth discussing. I love insight. It’s extremely valuable.
BOULEVARD OF BROKEN DREAMS
- The Ratelle-Park New York Rangers
- The Tony Esposito-Jim Pappin Chicago Blackhawks
- The French Connection-Don Luce Buffalo Sabres
- The Dino Ciccarelli Minnesota North Stars
- The Raymond Bourgque Boston Bruins
- The Brian Propp Philadelphia Flyers
- The Trevor Linden Vancouver Canucks
- The Dom Hasek Buffalo Sabres
- The Mats Sundin-Curtis Joseph Toronto Maple Leafs
- The Chris Pronger-Ryan Smyth Edmonton Oilers
- The Sedin Vancouver Canucks
- The Patrick Marleau-Joe Pavelski San Jose Sharks
A big day on the Lowdown, Sports 1440 noon to 2pm. Bagged Milk joins us from Oilers Nation to talk about the weekend in California and what to expect from the Oilers the rest of the way. Paul Sir, Edmonton’s Mr. Basketball, will pop in to talk trade deadline, Canada (women) takes on the hosts Hungary in our opening game of the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament and more. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
With three recent wins, Calgary has put themselves firmly back in the wild card race. Wouldn’t it be beautiful if they snuck into the playoffs and then vanquished the Canucks in the first round?
In this scenario there’s a good chance they would face the Oilers in the 2nd round, too. I’m up for another BoA, right after putting the Knights to sleep.
Oh man if Kuzmenko is just what this team needed to remain mediocre for another development cycle, amazing.
If Kuzmenko scores the round 1 winner against his old team, AND Markstrom out-duels Demko while at it…
The Flames are our natural rival. But the Cancuks are pathetic. Its just so hard.
The Jets have allowed 3 or more goals for 3 consecutive games now.
Good news everybody.
This is the time of year they swoon. Does Bowness have the stones to arrest the fall this season?
Fun fact – Leon has scored his most career goals against Hellybuck.
Nucks down 4-0 to the Bruins early in the 2nd.
Lindholm on the ice for all 4 goals against, two at 5 on 5 and two goals against while the Nucks were on the PP.
Why don’t the Canucks simply play like speed demons and take quality shots to win. Are they stupid?
I am hoping team chemistry has now gone down the drain.
My my my… early on in the 2nd period and already it’s 4-0 Boston versus Harper’s Canucks.
Now that we’re past the All Star break here’s hoping the training wheels fall off of this putrid excuse of an NHL franchise.
The 1st 2 goals were shorties. Could this be an early indicator that Van (and/or Demko) can’t keep up their winning pace? A guy can dream.
Dreger says the Oilers’ top priority is a top 6 winger to play with Drai.
Guentzel is the splashy name but he may not even be moved.
Mentioned that Eberle is a name that is being discussed among management.
Taraskenko is a name but he has a full NTC but Dreger thinks he’d waive for a contender.
————————
I love Jordan Eberle but is he more of a true 2RD for Drai than Foegle has been this season?
He’s more expensive on the cap, that is a known (of course, there would have to be retention – twice if they don’t want to move out a real contract).
Agreed I don’t think Ebs is better now than Foegele, and Ebs can be pushed out of heavy games
I do think Tank is an upgrade
I think Toffoli might be preferable to Tarasenko. Puckiq numbers are a little better, a few less miles on the tires.
Tarasenko produces more in the playoffs.
Tuch would be even better, but cost more.
You’ve been banging the drum for Alex Tuch…
I haven’t watched him much since he played for Vegas. Back when he did, every time I watched him, I had wished he was an Oiler.
Big body that flies around the ice… rock solid defensively…
I am here to beat a drum for Mantha. A large and fast scoring winger on ufa contract.
Either Oilers win with McDavid or else McDavid leaves and then wins the cup anywhere else.
We all want the first statement to be true.
McDavid this season has been playing like a maniac. He’s taking his insane talent and instead of skyrocketing through the league like he usually does, instead the team comes first and he’s probably becoming Mark Messier 2.0 toward any Oiler who thinks they’re able to just turn up and collect a paycheck.
He’s probably going to stay in Edmonton. Katz’s team is probably worth half of what it’s currently worth without him. Therefore they are going to do everything and anything to convince him to stay.
Lowetide we second tier fans aren’t particularly rational. Despite a 16 game win streak it’s freaking horrible to see them fall short in Vegas. There is still a lot of season to be played, but with the loss suddenly Vegas has got a nice amount of wiggle room. The swine.
In 10 games from now everything will be forgotten.
The amout of wiggle room Vegas has is actually a function of the Oilers who determine it – due to the 5 games in hand the Oilers have.
Points percentage is almost a watch – Vegas is ahead by 0.06%.
6 games in hand now, and 9 points back.
Pickard starts tomorrow.
No-brainer!
Ummmmmm…..:
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
New D-pairings:
Nurse-Desharnais
Kulak-Bouchard
Ekholm-Ceci
———————–
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
·
30m
Corey Perry up with Kane/Draisaitl at today’s practice, with Foegele moving alongside Holloway/McLeod.
Don’t mind a test run of Nurse-Desharnais against a weak team, don’t understand the other changes though. We finally have a true #1 pairing in Ekholm-Bouchard, I would leave it alone.
Knobby engaged the enemy in a skirmish on Tuesday. Saw that his D had vulnerabilities. So he decided to experiment and learn more about his defensemen by changing the dance partners.
Well, if you’re going to shuffle all 3 D pairs then Anaheim is a good test drive.
I wonder if this is based on the coaching staff seeing Ceci as a weak point? Elkholm is banged up? Zooming Kulak or even Desharnais for a possible trade? Or I’m just attempting to read non existent chicken bones.
I would think that Ekholm/Ceci will be a tough minutes pair (along with Nurse/Deharnais)
Not sure why they would consider splitting up Ekholm & Bouchard? I like The Nurse/ Desharnais combo and Kulak/ Ceci make a whole lot more sense as the third pair, not Ekholm/Ceci. This is perplexing. Coach must be rewarding Kulak & Desharnais for their stellar play in Vegas.
And I gotta say I’m really looking forward to seeing Leon & Perry together.on the second line. The 2nd line needs a jolt.
I hope these pairings are more espresso than Folger’s instant.
I have raised a Spockian eyebrow at the Perry to Drai line move.
Not that I’m against Perry, in fact it’s the opposite, I’ve really enjoyed the 3rd line since he’s been added to it. They full on dominated in Vegas and were very good versus Nashville.
Holloway and McLeod’s speed combined with Perry’s positioning and brains was what makes that line tick though – I’m not sure Perry has enough giddy up to make it work on the second line for a full game.
Defensive changes – sure. I think I’d rather they went:
Ekholm-Bouch
Nurse-Vinny
Kulak-Ceci
However I guess it’s worth trying. Kulak-Bouch has always been a bit meh to my eye though.
That move just makes the third line even faster with Foegele, plus he has plenty of chemistry with MacLeod. Perry sure will jolt the 2nd line. Which is probably a good thing. I think you nailed those D pairings.
KK did throw Perry out with Drai and Kane for a shift vs Vegas. It ended up being a little short due to a whistle. They weren’t able to show much. Then he loaded up McDrai and put Perry back with the kids.
I imagine this is just a practice exercise.
I don’t think the current coach plays games like that – I fully expect to see this tomorrow.
Maybe it is the beers enjoyed on Lanikai beach but I love this move by the coach. Subtle tweaks during a winning streak, lose a game and are facing an inferior opponent so he goes to the drawing board to see if he can find something useful for the future. He already knows what works, has 16 games worth of data. Now he tests. This isn’t reactionary, it is purpose driven.
I was thinking of switching Des and Ceci
Perhaps they are hoping Ek can D whisper Ceci
Maybe next Nurse Bouch and Ek Des
Kulak healthy and Ceci you’d think could handle 3rd
Lars Eller. Prime Holland candidate for 4C, age 34 this year.
$2.45MM for this season and next with no trade protection. CF% and DFF% rels break even overall — with better results against elites, at 30.3% TOI deployment.
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8474189
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/lars-eller
He’s doing pretty well this season at 3C. The real Holland thing is Dubas signed him first – no brainer for Kenny
This is a great find.
This guy is even having a decent year box cars wise.
Far, far above our bottom 6
Perhaps it’s also a good example of the way we see a call on the ice depends on our perspective!
That 1974 call on Bobby Orr was absolutely a penalty. He wraps his arm around Clark’s hip and spins him around. True, his stick did not do any damage, but the damage was done. The exact same type of penalty that broke McDavid’s collarbone.
The shared hockey experience doesn’t have to be with fans on the same side of the puck. It’s a game that brings all fan bases together.
That Flyers team was incredible. Shero coached them to play like a machine. Best goalie in the world, a captain that would run headfirst into a brick wall and a whole bunch of goons.
The schedule remains frustrating. Long layoff, back for 1 game before a 2-day break before back-to-back games. The Ducks game should be tonight for the good of players and for us fans who want to watch our team.
What’s even weirder is there is no event at the Honda Center tonight. Game tonight, drive in to LA. Bizarre choice.
What the Kings look like on Saturday should be interesting.
They will be coming off a 10 straight days break and have had some time with a new head coach.
Wonder if they’ll get the “new coach bump”?
Hard to call him new when he’s moving over five feet on the same bench.
Different voice sometimes is all it takes.
Really it is just the voices on your head.
Who cares; your comments have nothing to do with mine
The reality is that until the Department of Player Safety and Officiating Department collectively decide it’s time to tilt the ice back towards level, then the Oilers will not win the Stanley Cup. Period. There is no evidence as of yet that they have deemed that the Oilers will receive neutral consideration.
The refs haven’t noticed that Perry is on the Oilers roster yet. Give it time, it’s only been one game.
Our team on the hunt,
Denied by Vegas AGAIN,
Destiny Valhalla!
Always viewed the Sharks as Jumbo Joe and Drew Remenda.
Always viewed the sharks
as jumbo Joe, pat Marleau,
and drew remenda
ftfy
As I get older, I don’t get the highs and lows as much from hockey anymore. Mostly I just enjoy watching if I have a spare few hours to kill.
This Knoblauch team though – they are rocking chair cool under pressure. They don’t seem to gift anything anymore, make the right decisions and just keep at it. Woodcroft had a great quote around hammering away at a rock until it finally cracks, but I think the team shows this much more under Knoblauch than under Woodcroft. Really enjoying their direction, and I hope they can win it all this year. I know they’ll give any other team fits in the playoffs.
The more I think about the moves to make the more I become enamored with the idea of paying a team to take Campbell’s contract, then using the cap space to eat Brown’s bonus this year instead of next.
Skinner is playing well, Pickard seems a fine backup. Rodrigue is doing well enough in the AHL that he’s going to be a recall option.
It’s not a glamourous option as we’d basically be accepting that we’re sticking with the roster as is, but it would set us up well for next year and beyond.
Yes, if it’s possible I agree, this isn’t a one and done situation like for most teams
I was thinking the Canes are in real jeopardy of losing yet another season to poor goaltending. I say lose the season because although they will make the second season, they have been a top team for a while, the Cup would be their goal, not another playoff ousting
They have Andersen coming back, but he wasn’t playing well before he got sick, is 34, and may not be that good again
I don’t know if they would want Campbell, but they have 6.679M in deadline cap space according to CF. Saros is better but he’s going to get paid (and cost the moon), and the Canes don’t spend to the cap. Who else is definitely better than Jack and low acquisition cost?
I would make that call. Trade him for a 2nd and Spencer (down to the A). They wouldn’t be just eating his cap they need a goalie so it’s a hockey trade, I’m not paying them to take him
Lots of goalies have had tough years (Saros is even off) so despite that we don’t value him, he is not without value if he’s recovered his game. He isn’t any more risky than a lot of others on the block, has low acquisition cost and has more good track record than a lot of them
Andersen is on LTIR so they would have to Vegas Tampa that move for it to work without Capnastics
I just think if you look at the Flames having to pay Montreal to take Monahan’s deal then we’re likely looking at a similar situation with Campbell. If you’re right and it only costs us a second to trade him there then that’s great – I think it costs a first and some more bits due to the term.
Monahan was broken and a cap dump of 6.3M that was far from certain to get any better a few months off his second hip surgery
My premise is that goalies (especially this year) are wobbly and Jack is playing better and healthy and they are in desperate need. I’m not sending the pick, I’m receiving it. The Canes other options are far more expensive
We see other GMs doing things and even getting returns for less than good players. Monahan garnered Hughes 2 first round picks, and he hasn’t been a good player in years. He had 17 5v5 points on bottom 6 players and winning faceoffs, underwater in everything but GF%, -10. The Jets overpaid for need, Monahan is going to give Bowness fits with his defensive play
Holland has a story to tell, if he wants. The ‘start’ did a bunch of Oilers in, Holland said he didn’t handle Jack properly when he sent him down. Jack is hyper self critical and playing in a US market will take a ton of pressure off of him, yada yada
Maybe it costs them a 2nd, but there aren’t a lot of goalie options that are good. Or cheap. Crazier things have happened, it’s just not usually us
We see other GMs doing things and even getting returns for less than good players. Monahan garnered Hughes 2 first round picks, and he hasn’t been a good player in years. He had 17 5v5 points on bottom 6 players and winning faceoffs, underwater in everything but GF%, -10. The Jets overpaid for need, Monahan is going to give Bowness fits with his defensive play
We don’t see GMs do what you are suggesting in this type of deal – we see them do what Blake had to do to get rid of Cal Pederson which included retaining $2MM for multiple years and and pay.
The Canes have multiple options that don’t include their owner committing to $15MM for a goalie in the AHL. Of all organizations, the Cane’s have proven to be as frugle as any with big money/term contracts.
Why would they acquire Jack Campbell if their premise is winning over, say, MAF or Jake Allen or, heck Elvis Merzlikins if they were amenable to commit the money and term?
Whenever MAF is mentioned they put up his career numbers. He’s not a top goalie anymore
Elvis hasn’t been good and his established record isn’t as good as Jack’s. Allen is probably a better choice for them. But Hughes is no easy GM to deal with
So what I’m saying is that while who knows, it’s possible. They have had goalie issues for years, 5M isn’t unreasonable, they are going to have to spend there
Nope, MAF is not a top goalie but i would suggest that any NHL org looking for help in net going in to this playoffs values him at his contract ALOT more than Jack Campbell at his contract (and this is likely true of almost every goalie in the league – a league which Campbell isn’t even in……).
It was a well laid plan if Brown got back to his historic scoring levels eventually. It just hasn’t happened. Now that 4M for 0 goals NEXT year is an absolute albatross. In any other situation, fireable offence. Good thing they are winning without him pissing a drop. Unseen complete scoring collapse at Reider and JFJ levels.
If I can eat it this year considering the team has still been successful so far, I strongly consider it.
The good news is the Oil can sign Brown cheap next year!
I think there is zero chance they trade major futures away to dispose of Campbell and then sit on millions of dollars of unused cap space.
Agreed, although if it did happen and they only got one player that wasn’t expensive or had retention they might bank a large chunk of Brown’s bonus
I wouldn’t say there’s zero chance, and I’m not even sure it’s the right way to go. I’m merely saying I like the idea of a clean disposition of the Campbell contract and the Brown bonus in one fell swoop. It enables the team to have $8.225 mill extra from next season on. If Holland is gone that’s a nice chunk of change to have available for the new GM.
Plus don’t we already have $2.3 odd mill banked as space at the deadline already? That would allow a move for a 4C and a veteran 7D for extra playoff injury cover.
if they ran with the current roster through tot he deadline, they could add a $2.3MM AAV. It will be less than that as they will assuredly have 7 d-man on the roster at least for portions.
Also, lets not forget, moving Campbell clean sometime between now and the deadline does not just clear the entire $5MM off the year end cap.
$3.85MM has been on the books all season long so, if they move that out at the deadline, apx $2.8MM will still be on the year’s cap (plus about 1/10th or or so of the other $1.15MM which was on the books prior to his demotion).
Yup, Kane seems to always been banged up, if not hurt.
Its not just the injury he may be dealing with at any given time but I presume the aggregate of the wear and tear is catching up?
Is he even the player he was 2 years ago?
At the same time, what I’ve learned about Kane in his time as an Oiler, is that he’s a very streaky player and, when he’s on, he scores in bunches and impacts the game in various positive ways.
I have little doubt we will see at least one more hot streak from Kane down the stretch and, hopefully, one in the NHL playoffs.
Sounds like the obvious solution is to place Kane on LTIR, bring in a shooting winger for the 2nd line, and then helicopter Kane back in for Game 1 🙂
You can’t just put a player on LTIR for the heck of it.
Kane is a streaky player and always has been, he has been snake bit as of late. He has been getting into good areas to score and finding lanes and pockets in front of the net, That is a positive sign!
I’m not overly critical here but I think Coach should have left that 1st line (and the rest of the lines) together for the 3rd period against Vegas – I didn’t love the load up and it kind of contradicts the “keep with it” mantra that has been with this team since the coaching change.
3rd line looks great through two games – will it piss drops?
Week spot(s) on forward are 4C/4th line and, at a high level, a 2nd line winger. Results for this season tell us Foegele has been legit (top 52 in 5 on 5 points among forwards and top 25 in P/60) but history tells us he’s a 3rd liner.
Then again, over 2.5 seasons and close to 500 minutes tell us that, when not with McDavid, Foegele is a huge help to Leon (60% goal share with, 48% goal share without).
Can’t argue with wanting a 2nd line winger upgrade even if I think the 4C is the biggest issue. Truth be told, adding a top 6 winger pushes players down the lineup and helps that 4th line.
Tough to see an add of a top 6 winger without a player going out and, well, who is that (Foegele himself or Kulak, right?).
It depends on what we add and how much is retained, players can be waived on not picked up, brought back up for playoffs. So there might be just a pure addition and no subtraction. I do think it is time to gamble and sell off picks, the time is now and next year for our run at the cup.
Last season, among forwards who played at least 500 minutes at 5v5, Foegele was 85th at 2.09 P/60, tied with John Tavares.
That’s a 1st line scoring rate.
How long does he have to score at 1st line rates before people stop writing him off as a bottom-6er riding a hot streak? Three years? More?
Further: in 19-20, Foegele scored 1.94 P/60, 100th among forwards with at least 500 minutes. That’s a high second line rate.
20-21, he scored 1.60 P/60, 170th among forwards with at least 400 minutes. That’s a low 2nd line rate.
21-22, he scored 1.38 P/60, 276th among forwards with at least 500 minutes. That’s a low 3rd line rate.
22-23, low 1st line rate.
23-23, high 1st line rate.
So in 4 of the past 5 years Foegele has scored as a top-6 player at 5v5.
So what exactly is history telling us?
……………..
That said, I don’t have any difficulty with Edmonton pursuing a Tuch or a Konecny or even a Tarasenko, because I know that Foegele will still produce on a Holloway-McLeod third line, and that Perry can still do his thing on the 4th. That’s the kind of depth you need to win the Cup. Just stop trying to convince us that Foegele is a written-in-stone bottom-6 forward, when history tells us otherwise.
People were using the same arguments to champion Jesse and Yammo as top 6 wingers.
Raw numbers often leave out the context and don’t tell the whole story
Foegele would not be playing a top 6 winger role on Vegas.
That’s the team we’re trying to beat.
It’s time to get Leon a legit top 6 winger.
So what’s your criteria for “legit” top-6 winger?
Not true. Nobody could have used P/60 for either player as an argument they were top-6, because neither guy consistently posted a top-6 scoring rate. Yamamoto had that one 27-game stretch, but aside from that, his best season was 1.53 P/60, while Puljujarvi’s best was 1.62. Not the same thing at all.
Foegele very easily could have played in the top six ahead of Jesse & Yammo.
FWIW, one of Dorofeyev, Amadio or Cotter would be in a fully healthy Vegas top 6 as of today. (yes, even with Eichel healthy)
Good chance Vegas (like the Oilers) add someone before the deadline, but as of today Foegele would very likely be playing in the Vegas top 6.
22-23 TOI against elites
Foegele 23%
Tavares 35%
23-24
Foegele 29%
Tavares 37%
Foegele is a good player, but doesn’t have strong top 6 qualities. Last playoffs 12 games 3 points -2. He doesn’t seem to me to be a player that rises to big games. He was not good against Vegas, was poor on one of the GA
He is not great on the boards, at the blue lines and isn’t strong defensively. Others see this as well, Curlock has mentioned it a couple of times. He can play in the top 6, is better than a lot of players for middle 6 play, I prefer a different player type, especially defensively. Also more physical with his size
Warren Foegele, 2022/23:
67GP – 13G / 15A / 28P / -1 / 28PIM
CTOI%
CF%-rel
DFF%-rel
GF%
So he did this with an overall PDO of 1001, higher against top and bottom comp, results against middle being skewed lower by a low SH%.
Solely using /60 scoring rates to suggest Foegele is a first liner is a stretch. First liners tend to put up more than 28 points (not to mention a measly 3 points in 12 playoff games), and they tend to play more against elite competition.
I like Foegele fine. I’d even bring him back next year. But let’s hold off anointing him as a first liner. If he wants more than a $3MM AAV I’d let him walk.
Nobody said he’s a 1st liner though. I said he scored at top-6 rates 4 of the past 5 years.
Quoting puckiq’s stats is meaningless too. I never said that he plays on the 1st line. It actually makes his scoring more impressive, knowing that he is scoring at 1st line rates while playing with 3rd liners mostly. What is it that Woodguy used to say all the time? Who you play with is more important than who you play against.
“Nobody said he’s a 1st liner though.”
Perhaps I misunderstood.
To me, he’s a solid middle six guy. I prefer him on the third line (moving up as injury/slumps dictate). Him playing L2 minutes is because of a lack of depth/options. To my eye he fumbles too many quality scoring opportunities to be in the top-6 full time. As Slushy notes, he isn’t great on the boards.
Acquiring someone who can push him down bodes well for the team.
If Holland can carve a few deals for available players you can add Tanev and Tank with 50% retained, but you have to move Campbell clean (I suggested the Canes elsewhere who desperately need a goalie) and Ceci, send Gagner down, a couple of loonies of cap left
Agree with this 100% in a couple of ways:
1) There is a very vocal crowd on Oilers Social Media that don’t seem to want the Oilers to win but want the Oilers to win the way they think they should. I don’t think they would truly accept a Cup Win because Holland didn’t build the team the way they think it should have been built.
2) With respect to any particular game night, I think many fans asses their enjoyment of the game based almost 100% on the final score. There are games where the Oilers play well and the game is contested until the very end with entertaining play, however, if the Oilers lose that game, even in a shootout, some seem to forget about the previous 2:45 of entertainment and focus solely on the end result, sometimes even citing “wasted 3 hours of my time”.
I know that some people refrain from muting on social media because they want to hear all people’s opinions, but that isn’t my jam. If some nut bar is screaming on the street corner, I have no obligation to run up towards them and listen to their ramblings. I treat social media the same way. My mute list is comically long and I am extremely biased against negativity for the sake of negativity. Life’s too short to fight and bitch and moan 24/7.
As a result, my Twitter experience is quite good, and I can no longer really empathize with topics like today where folks are disappointed with some of the verbal they see online. Call it an echo chamber if you will, but my feed is filled with people who I feel I would enjoy sitting down with at a bar over a few beers.
Long story short, mute is a wonderful, wonderful tool.
Agreed on them seemingly not wanting them to win to be vindicated about whatever hill they’re dying on. Holland’s legacy as GM comes to mind, there are many other takes.
As for game to game, considering past ‘trauma’, I don’t fault anyone for not enjoying a morale victory.
I say fan how you want to fan, but if you put it on a forum don’t expect everyone to agree with you. Sport is community at the end of the day, we have to tolerate our neighbours even if they yell at clouds.
On the middle sentence, its not about enjoying a moral victory, its that that moment at the end seemingly deletes the entire 2.5 hour journey to get there – a journey that was entertaining, etc.
Oh, yes, everyone can fan how they please – to each their own – was just noting some trends I see.
I’m not a ‘fan’ when it’s generalized in media and here that fans with an opinion aren’t enjoying the games in real time. There are a couple of folks here that only have hot takes and maybe they don’t have enjoyment
Call in shows? A dog whistle for those with mental health issues. Social media? I don’t think I’d be gauging overall sentiment from those biased small samples
A guy came into my store today to talk Oilers. We aren’t in Oil Country. He was pretty affected by the Vegas loss. As was another Oilers fan customer, as was I
For the type of fan I am I can’t fathom having an arms length fanship where the score is secondary and it’s just entertainment. I appreciate when they play a good game and lose, I am not impressed when they play below par and lose. The thing is they are at the point where if they play well they don’t lose very often. So close
No team can win them all, I think most fans get that. Doesn’t mean you have to like it or be neutral. Most fans I know have skin in the game but aren’t childish about how things pan out
Gary wasn’t miffed only because they lost. He has a successful business and is a very assertive guy. He’s not cool with that loss because he saw it coming. The chance at greatness lost. He saw it coming because as he said you can’t do nothing and expect a different result
I felt this at summer’s end. Holland wanted to ‘give them another chance’. Gary said the team that lost the series wasn’t good enough. So some changes were required to get a different result. Allvin changed half the roster and went from golfing to first in the league. In one year
The lead all the games, this that. They lost. Twice in a row to the champions. But it’s the Champs! Well isn’t that what we’re supposed to be? Isn’t that the goal? We know for a fact that Connor burns white hot for it. Everything else is moot
During the DoD we had to accept what was happening, they were so bad and management so incompetent. We learned analytics because there was nothing else to do
It’s different now, way different because of Connor. Because of Connor the Oilers aren’t a team with a shot at a Cup like many, they are a team with a shot at a legacy, again. Only the Penguins have had the outrageous fortune we have had in the last 40 years. It drives Gary nuts because he sees they are a few pieces away from greatness, like many do, and he thinks the GM is doing little
I agree with what Pretendergast said, fans enjoy in different ways. I enjoy the team a lot, and have opinions about what they are doing wrong. I also enjoy that, and learning about and using the stats behind the game and thinking about how they can improve
Every team can get better ,some actively do, they tend to be at the forefront of modern processes. The things Oiler fans laid groundwork in. That’s what I want for our team. I enjoy this thing, but am I satisfied? Should I be if the Connor McDavid Oilers, a couple of steps behind greatness, can’t get over this bump because the brass can’t figure the final picture out, and other teams couldn’t?
Unfortunately I have the example of this same team being a juggernaut, and can see it’s so very close to it again, it’s aggravating that they haven’t been given the right help to do it
Loving every minute, that’s how I fan. And many others
In terms looking back at memories of wonder and unadulterated joy the 1990 Oilers will always stand out to me.
While close chronologically to the previous juggernauts they were separated in a real way from the previous Cup winners.
No Gretzky obviously, but this was a team with Mark Lamb as its second line centre, a kid line composed with three players with more skill than common sense, and with Fuhr’s injury they won with their young backup goaltender.
Petr Klima (RIP) scored one of the most important goals of the entire playoffs for crying out loud.
That playoff run was very much unique, and was a joy to live through.
Was Tikkanen Lamb Kurri the first line? Or was Simpson Messier Anderson?
1A and 1B.
Gelinas, Graves, and Murphy arrived just in time for the playoffs. Holland doesn’t invest regular season reps in young player serendipity upside arriving in the playoffs.. No upside surprise in Holland’s modus operandi of investing in 30 something stopgaps.
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
·
33m
Some notes as the Condors hit the final 34:
605 is 6th in WC & 11th in league
Campbell is 10-4-0, 2.58, .923 since Nov. 21.
Rodrigue’s .920 is 7th in @TheAHL
Gleason is 6th among D (20+) in points per game
6th best PP in league
12th in GF / 7th in GA
Pouzar, do you think given the good stretch that an NHL team would a team gamble on Campbell via trade?
Not even a little bit – not without the Oilers paying major assets for a team to take him.
What is 605?
Points percentage.
Not many AHL teams have a top 4 NHL D playing 25 minutes a game.
This Oilers squad is solid.
quality. historic even.
Still feels they’re missing something.
Thought this was a haiku by the formatting. This site has me boggled.
Upgrade Connor Brown is my call on what’s missing.
solid oilers squad
quality historic team
still yet not complete
haha excellent
I was living in Quebec when the BoA was more less hibernating and the Iginla-led Phlegms took it to the final. Closest I’ve ever been to not cheering against Calgary. Thank goodness I didn’t fold.
I’ve watched every Stanley Cup Finals since 1963, & that penalty on Bobby Orr is the single most influential call I can remember. Trailing 1-0 late in the third, & having *just* killed off a penalty to John Bucyk with 5 minutes left (on an obvious dive by Rick MacLeish), Boston was pressing & leaving the back door open. When Bucyk got out of the box, Orr led a rush and was pitchforked to the ice, no penalty. Shortly thereafter, Bobby Clarke got a partial breakaway, Orr ovetook him, reached around & disrupted the rush, & somehow referee Art Skov detected a holding infraction. 2;22 left to play, & not just anyone but the guy likeliest to score or generate a goal in the box.
It’s all here, with the Orr penalty just after the 1:29:00 mark. The whole last 5 minutes is informative, in which Philly — objectively the dirtiest team in hockey — enjoyed 4 minutes of man advanatge on 2 questionable penalties & got away a more obvious infraction than either of the 2 that Skov called.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nLY2hq5vlw0
1974 May 19, when the Flyers became the first ever expansion team to win the Cup. Their record of doing so in 7 years was broken exactly 10 years (to the day!) later, when the Oilers won Stanley in their 5th NHL season. That record still stands today, with the only asterisk being whether Edmonton was a true expansion team.
Oilers 5 years
Vegans 6
Fyers 7
Islanders 8
Thank you.
How come there is no Wikipedia page on you Bruce. Sure would be nice to know a little bit more of your history, you seem like such a interesting man.
Yeah Bruce, what’s you sign? LOL
In the old days, you had a term for Connor Brown… a Denver boot.
In 51 minutes with McDavid and Brown, they have a 16.7% goal share (1-5)
How Holland has handled Brown is a curiosity..
We used to remark about the lack of scoring from DOD players like Lennart Petrell. Petrell had 3 goals and 9 points in 35 games during his last season in the NHL.
Meanwhile, Brown has 0 goals and 4 assists in 39 games on a team with aspirations of winning the cup. It’s incredible.
Sophia Petrillo, once remarked during an episode of the Golden Girls, something about pasta sticking to the wall.
Picture it: Edmonton, 2024. A young Sicilian girl coming into her own, discovering herself, looking to score.
Holland gambled on Brown ( albeit a really strange contract and now obviously an overpayment at this time). I thought Brown was a great get as did a ton of other Oiler fans.
if Brown was scoring and putting up points we would all be happy. Unfortunately he isn’t.
Not sure what Holland can do about it now as he like all of us think he will start putting up points sooner or later. But now it is later and it’s still not coming.
Sure he is a great pk guy but he needs to put up some points as does Janmark.
It will be interesting to see who goes on waivers if and when Holland brings in another forward
There is nothing for Holland to do about it now. The bonus vested and paid and the amount will hit the Oilers’ year end cap calculation and nothing can be done about that.
In the here and now, Connor Brown is on the Oilers roster with a cap hit of $775K. 100% he needs to piss more drops but he’s also value for a league min cap hit with strong responsible play and high end PK work.
He IS at risk of getting pushed out of the lineup if they acquire another forward – and that would be be great depth.
This was always meant to be a second half and playoffs signing and I’m still hopeful he can finish the season around 8 goals and piss some drops in the playoffs.
I thought he played well on Wed – of course, has no threat to produce a point and that’s going to continue to be tough playing with Ryan and Janmark.
I would like to extend my thinking of 97 as the Neo-Classical superstar into this thread of broken dreams.
Perhaps he really is Hockey’s Johan Cruyff: dedicated to the moment, the play, the form of hockey itself, its essence. And purity doesn’t always lend itself to an outcome governed by chaos, the ugly reality of biases, accidents, capitalism, power. Sadly, he may not be a man for his time, but for all-time.
I like to think that McDavid sees himself in this classic mould, and his obstacles themselves as grand narratives. This is what can compel one man to live in history, and to understand one Cup in Edmonton is 5 or 10 or 15 in Dallas or Tampa or Raleigh. What he faces is the greatest challenge of his era, and seeing this through is the greater objective, nay, the greatest objective, possible.
Hell, its right in the name. McDavid. You really think he’s going to go sign with Goliath?
Fantastic post.
The Daniel Alfredsson-Marion Hosaa Ottawa Senators?
I am pretty sure they blame Kevin Lowe for trading Pronger to Anaheim. Pronger added to Niedermayer and Beachemin made Anaheim pretty much unbeatable.
There are others. My list is what came to mind.
I’m sure Sens fans have many fond memories of Daniel Alfredsson, but for me as a non-Sens fan it’ll always be him viciously boarding Darcy Tucker before scoring the game 5 winner in MLG 😂
Alfie’s competitive nature was underrated.
I’ll never forget him unloading a clapper directly at (and on) Scott Niedermayer in the Finals, conspicuously after the period had ended.
+ The Hawerchuk Jets, muahahaha! That’s who I was thinking of.
Doesn’t hit as well as my distorted memory of no Flames Cups.
Their damned coach played Beauregard over Essensa in Game 7.
That Jets team was damned by some higher power than just the coach.
I remind my friend Dean (a Jets fan) about that decision every chance I get 🙂
When we were kids at the rink drawing sticks for teams, my good friend always had to be Dino Ciccarelli which made it nice for the rest of us claiming Oiler greats. But man Ciccarelli was good at the hockey!
https://www.nhl.com/player/dino-ciccarelli-8446063
Ciccarelli is one of 17 players in NHL history with 600 goals, 1,200 points and 1,200 games played, and the only one who was undrafted.
Of note, now that LT has officially molded my brain to look at numbers his career shooting percentage was 16.4!
Don’t forget he is also way up the list of All Time Psychos
+ The Nieuwendyk Flames, muahahaha!
Oh no wait they won the cup in 89 I’m an idiot Jesus.