That was one ugly baby. Oh my. The Oilers, as a team, were outclassed by the Toronto Maple Leafs on national television. I believe in this team, but not in the same way as I believed in the 2005-06 Oilers. This version of the club has far more talent, but lacks the kind of consistency one would like to see from a now veteran unit. Massive vapor lock moments by Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard led the way, but those men had plenty of company.
What did that 2006 team have that this one doesn’t possess? Is it Chris Pronger blocking out the sun for opponents, nattering away and driving every to the edge of each nerve with his constant urgency about getting better? Is it that the power play is too good and the Aces and Kings are spending too much time there? I don’t think it’s effort and I don’t think it’s grit. The addled moments of this team are a worry. That’s a fact.
That said, the team is 39-13-3 under Kris Knoblauch and that’s a stunning run. Perhaps we can put the ball peen hammer back in the shed.
In a weird way, last night’s humbling is a good thing. There’s not a man wearing Oilers threads who can honestly say he worked hard, worked smart, had all of his faculties concentrated on the game. If finishing second to every hockey moment in a game was a skill, last night’s Oilers perfected the discipline.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How have the Oilers’ deadline acquisitions worked out so far?
- DNB: Why Oilers’ Zach Hyman might be the NHL’s most unlikely 50-goal scorer ever
- Lowetide: The Oilers face a looming cap crunch. How bad will it be this summer?
- Lowetide: If Oilers’ Philip Broberg is next man up, he needs NHL games soon
- DNB: How Adam Henrique is slowly becoming a key player for the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-0-1)
- On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
- Actual March results: 7-2-2, 16 points in 11 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 42-22-4, 88 points in 68 games
The great thing about a game like that one is that it only counts one. My goodness the Maple Leafs looked prepared. Top to bottom, strong, physical, skilled and some good early stops by their goaltender. I’m not inclined to hammer the team this morning because they have played so well this season. I also don’t buy ‘friends in the crowd’ verbal because it’s silly. It’s a veteran group. They are smart people. They got embarrassed. In life, it’s not what happens to you, it’s what you do about it, or so sayeth W. Mitchell.
THE NUMBERS
I said “I’m not sure what he was thinking there” many times in the game. The only things that made sense to me were Draisaitl yelling at Kane (was it the botched passing play where he didn’t linger along the wall for a Bouchard pass?) and that I’d be writing a version of “you’re going to have to live with the mistakes” and some of you yelling at me. It’s true, you know. The Oilers best players were the culprits and the Leafs plumbers were the stars.
I know all teams go through this, and if you look at this team’s record since Knoblauch arrived (I have it 39-13-3) than a stutter doesn’t seem as ridiculous as it looked last night.
START AS YOU MEAN TO GO
That was my wife Jo-Anne’s favourite phrase. Start as you mean to go. It’s true, you know. The Oilers organization has had some unfortunate luck in signing undrafted free agents of late, but two recent signings suggest the club made have me feeling positive. Also, rumours (word?) via informed sources (Bob) suggests Noah Philp may be returning to the organization after a one-year retirement. I wanted to show you what that might mean. Since 2000, the following men have made the NHL and stayed there for 200+ games. Here’s the list and what the accomplished in their final minor-league seasons.
- Shawn Horcoff (22) 2000-01 Minors: 24, 10-18-28 (1.17)
- Fernando Pisani (24) 2001-02 Minors: 79, 26-34-60 (0.76)
- Jason Chimera (22) 2001-02 Minors: 77, 26-51-77 (1.00)
- Jarret Stoll (20) 2002-03 Minors: 76, 21-33-54 (0.71)
- Brad Winchester (24) 2005-06 Minors: 40, 26-14-40 (1.00)
- Kyle Brodziak (22) 2006-07 Minors: 62, 24-32-56 (0.90)
- Tyler Pitlick (23) 2015-16 Minors: 37, 7-14-21 (0.57)
- Jujhar Khaira (22) 2016-17 Minors: 27, 8-12-20 (0.74)
- Ryan McLeod (21) 2020-21 Minors: 28, 14-14-28 (1.00)
- Dylan Holloway (20) 2021-22 Minors: 33, 8-14-22 (0.66)
- Noah Philp (24) 2022-23 Minors: 70, 19-18-37 (0.53)
Philp belongs on this list. I’d grab Brodziak as a comp. In 2006-07, Brodziak’s even-strength totals (62-18-18-36, .58) were similar to Philp a year ago (70, 16-15-31, .44). Considering Brodziak played in a higher scoring era (3.45 to Philp’s 2.45 per game) and the impressive showing in the minors in 2022-23, I’m confident Philp has NHL ability.
TODAY
I expect we’ll see the Oilers hammer the Senators senseless. I’d like to see the following lines and pairings:
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
- McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele
- Kane-Henrique-Perry
- Janmark-Carrick-Brown
- Ekholm-Bouchard
- Nurse-Stecher
- Kulak-Desharnais
- Pickard (Skinner)
I don’t think the Nurse-Desharnais pairing is destined for success. I think it’s time to try something new. I think there is some evidence of a better way.
TYLER WRIGHT
I posted the photo of Edmonton’s scouting directors for the cover photo because it’s worth mentioning Wright’s draft story has yet to be written. I’m not sure people have it right saying it was a failed era. It WAS an era where the scouting director didn’t get many picks (just six in the top 100 over four drafts), and his first-round picks are stalled out, leaking oil in the driveway.
The lower picks were used on some nice prospects. I can’t give you much more on Max Wanner, the numbers I’ve published here and at The Athletic are damned impressive. I can post the NHL equivalencies for Wright’s forwards based on their totals this season. Anything close to 30 is notable.
- Matt Copponi (H-East) 34
- Dylan Holloway (AHL) 33
- Maxim Berezkin (KHL) 32
- Shane Lachance (H-East) 24
- Tyler Tullio (AHL) 16
- Carter Savoie (AHL) 13
- Xavier Bourgault (AHL) 13
- Reid Schaefer (AHL) 12
- Joel Maatta (AHL) 11
- Matvey Petrov (AHL) 10
So, we have three guys on a trajectory that gets them to the high minors or NHL and Holloway is already there. We have a pile of kids hurting each other’s chances in the AHL because there isn’t enough room and two first-round picks who are a genuine worry.
Dang…
Summarizing!
For the second straight night, Stefan channelled Hyman in scoring his 50th of the season. Portland vs. Victoria starts Friday.
Stonehouse was held soupless. Ottawa vs. Brantford in round 1, while Flint meets the
WerewolvesKnights of London, the top team in the O. Both series start Friday.BU qualified for the Frozen Four, but St. Lawrence did not.
With Mazura’s season ending, Lachance and BU are the Oilers’ last chance at a NCAA title this year. Can an Oilers prospect win a Div-1 championship for the third year in a row (Savoie in ’22, Brind’Amour in’ 23)? We wait.
Prospecting takes a break until Thor’s Day.
Love the story and what Pickard has done this season, but he should not be the backup in the playoffs over Campbell who is playing very well in the AHL. Pickard has played as well as could be hoped for but cap is the only reason Campbell is still in Bako. No time for sentimentality or narrative in the playoffs. I would find a way to give Campbell a game or two on the last road trip in ARZ/COL- and if he performs well – then he’s #2.
Who are you waiving to accommodate the ~$2MM AAV required to fit Campbell on to the roster?
Told you so
Little doubt that game was lost on goaltending – end stop.
Yup, mistakes were made but the goaltending was the reason that game was lost.
Sens made more mistakes, many caused by the Oilers, but got more stops, many more.
I was at the game. Ottawa had few changes but they ended up in the net. This was not Pickard’s best game. They certainly played down to their opponent.
*chances
Pretty sure it was the PK much more than Pickard.
This trade deadline rhymes with the pre-covid-lockdown deadline. Holland overpaid for players that were redundant and effed up the roster deployment by the coach to try to incorporate redundant players.
Seems more than a bit hasty to be claiming that. Also, we aren’t and will not be aware of Holland’s opportunity set.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag14Ao_xO4c
That is the PK we all know and love!
Time to reanimate Jason Smith and Chris Pronger.
They allowed that cross seam pass all game long.
I’d say those of us that wanted The Power Line split up, at least on the road, were vindicated by the process today, if not the final result.
I didn’t think Heinrich looked out of place at 2LW and I suspect we will get another look or three at that.
I imagine Ryan will sit for Kane next game which is too bad because I think the 4th line had some real good moments of offensive creativity.
Agreed, that’s the best the 4th has looked for some time. Granted, 4th line success is almost always dictated by what the matchups are like, given how little ice-time they usually have. We’re very fortunate to have a 50 goal scorer, Hart winner on our 4th line, only because he is old man slow. His hockey IQ and stick work is still impressive when you really watch him.
It would be wise to get Campbell into some games so he’s playoff ready if Skinner isn’t feeling it.
Skinner had a horrible game today….
Wait—wut?
He was pulled after 2 periods last night probably throwing off Pickards preparation for todays game. Regardless I hope Kris gives Campbell 4-5 starts now that Jack has gotten his game back. It would be foolish not to give Jack another chance before this buyout talk gathers legs.
Probably not a good idea now given Campbell took a shot off the mask in practice the other day an is out with an upper body injury and Fanti has been called up.
Time to quit cheating for St Louis?
Holland wasted a 1st round pick on redundant players that has confused most of the forwards as to what their role is on the team. Plus the new forwards are slow. Twe of their best twenty players are in Bakersfield for the crime of being young.
Toffoli could have been acquired at less cost than Henrique and actually fill a need.
The OIlers do not have a proven top six right shot shooter on the team. The 1st that Henrique cost could have been spent on a better option than Stecher.
Holland’s trade deadline has complicated the situation for the coach, and not solved any of the problems with the roster.
I agree with you 100% along with the fact that this team is mentally extremely fragile and too dependent on their two stars. How many years is it now that this team still does not a defined team identity? In my mind their two deadline acquisitions were the worst made by any contending team. They haven’t improved anything, but worsened things.
Watching Walker today makes me wonder how in the world they didn’t pay that asking price
Walker would have been an add in an area that might cost.
I concur.
Wouldn’t have picked Toffoli, but that’s from the right pile at least.
Both Holloway and Gagner would have been better choices for the lineup today than players who were in.
The inconsistency has increased instead of decreased…which is not good.
Neither Holloway nor Gagner would have prevented 3 PPG today.
And I doubt either would have helped the Oilers score.
This is the exact sort of game where Gagner scores.
And I’d sure prefer Holloway with the puck and a chance to Ryan, Brown, or Janmark.
When was the last time they scored on a 6-on-5? And good gord do they ever give up a lot of ENs.
Against Boston, they won it in OT.
There was joy in the land
Good point, I think this is something for the coaches to give some consideration to going into the playoffs. Also, the pk seems a little inconsistent, not sure what the fix is but that’s what they pay the coaches for…
Little inconsistent ??????
Darnell Nurse 5v5 14-0 shots, 90% xGF. (Vinny with a 10-2 shots for and 63%xGF)
Three against on the PK
What an insane stat line hahaha.
Pretty dominant showing by that iteration of the second pairing.
I suspect we will see it again.
Lots of issues with our team have been openly revealed on this road trip. We’re playing far too soft, way too easy to play against. Love our offense when were cooking, but our defense… please stop the odd man rushes against. And I gotta say, teams are faster, speedier… please bring up Holloway and Broberg. And wtf has happened to our PK? Yikes it was terrible today. I’ve loved Pickard this season and dont blame him for the loss, but he has to be better.
Not the “sky is falling” time, but my goodness we’re supposed to be a cup contender. Wake the F up and get your heads back in the game.
Congrats on 50 goals Zach! This guy shows up every game to outwork his opponents.
GO OILERS!!!
I’m looking forward to the Apocalyptic Explanations and Expectations tomorrow.
What an unreal set of numbers lol.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=21128&view=limited
PK gave up 3 goals on 4 PKs today. that’s the difference today.
1 goal on 3 yesterday. Not even close to good enough.
I see the lanes and direction of pressure they methodically employ on the PK as far too predictable. It seems to work well against teams with lower end talent but a lot of these kids on the Sens can really snap the puck around. One cross seam pass that’s on offer is gobbled up by talented passers and then the PK is in trouble.
The lesson tonight, seems once again that all goal count equally.
You can have all the possession in the world and no quality shots. Or very little possession but get shots off, win the game.
i am watching Leon and Connor completely dominate zone entries, boards and zone possession. The other guys are just kind of milling around. Get open! It’s stale.
Ottawa won because they played simple. Take the shot. And of course Pickard did not have a strong game.
Amen. Too much looking for a better look when sometimes you just gotta pound the rock at the net
It’s crazy to say when shots were 36-16, but agreed. At times there is too much looking for the perfect play instead of getting the puck to the net.
Nuge rang iron and the Sens couldn’t be stopped.
Sometimes it’s just that lucky.
That’s it in a nutshell. I said that all game long, trying to get on the highlight of the night.
I think the only hope is Perry has a come to Jesus talk with Connor Leon and Darnell
He has the cajones. He knows that they are not playing the way that wins a Cup
These are best players. Others are simply watching.
Watching the best players play poor hockey is my point
Sort of like those Ference come to Jesus moments with Hall and Nugent-Hopkins.
Side Show Bob shudder
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRq1Ksh-32g
Nurse and VinniD played both fast pp goals against poorly.
Just not ment to win this game, I guess…
9 non-EV goals against in 2 games. Won’t win much with that stat.
Goaltending is below league average. This team will be ousted in the 1st round guaranteed
Be lucky to win one game.
Trade everyone!
I too think this team is first round fodder
And all this despite the Oilers having the book on Joonas over there. Upstairs is open all day.
They don’t like shooting fancy, just passing fancy
This. Sitting in the stands, we saw nothing but fancy passing and twirls.
Ottawa found a way to get a shot on net in the third and that was the difference
Drai needs a game
If he needs a breather, take a suspendable play against Doughty. Make the breather count!
Stanley Cup here we come.
More than double the shots and lose by two.
Very reminiscent of the first chunk of the season.
Last 2 games are very reminiscent of the first chunk of the season. Not an abundance of errors but the errors turn out to be catastrophic as teammates aren’t bailing each other out.
One other reminiscent thing, a noticeable return of the sprawl and snowangle by Dmen.
Wow.
Sometimes these guys just seem determined to not score.
Any patience or execution at all in the last 2 games and they score about 15.
Nuge needs to practice hitting the net.
Slightly less flex and I think he’s money.
The prioritization of whip over accuracy is a trend that won’t last.
Why are these guys so bad at establishing possession 6v5.
The top two players turn it over constantly?
Kenny’s sleepy
Drai gives up the puck and goes into coast mode
I miss beast mode
I miss Woody / Manson :'(
Sens have horseshoes up their butts tonight.
Haha oh oilers
Nurse really has games where he loves covering absolutely no one.
He has poor defensive sense.
I would love to have that and still make over 9 mil plus lol
He’s our 9+ mil #3 defender…
So glad Ekholm is under contract for 2 more full seasons.
For the THIRD time, make a save Cal – that was slow developing and he was over – it just went through him.
Like most of the shots tonight
Yep, very weak outing … 4 goals on 14 shots
Drai scores on that same play all the time. When he scores it’s celebrated as a great play and a great shot. When our goalies get scored on with the same play they suck and are terrible.
See told you it wasn’t me
ragging Pickard 😉
three guys playing the same cross seam pass leaving the recipient wide open and of course still gets through
They have been leaving the weak side wide open 5v5 as well
They are individually trying to work the puck into scoring positions
The better way is let the puck do the work. Pass to players that are arriving in position at the right time and go to one yourself after, don’t watch the play. This is the way
Pickhard sucks hard. Abysmally bad.
We Either score a shortie or get scored on. It’s that kinda game….
Yep. Stick checks galore
After ALL that domination, a bad angle and Ekholm takes a penalty – it was a legit call but, damn, how are they not up and now are looking at a must kill?
So frustrating – this seems like “one of these games”.
Come on guys, gut this out.
Yes it is one of those games. Not Picards finest outing.
Be nice for the PK to show up here.
That would be very useful
Apparently not…….
Ceci has earned his spot with Nurse the last two games.
This is as thorough of an ass kicking as they’ve dished out all year yet here we are lol.
Finish
Get all the xGF you want. But that isn’t puck in net
This has the makings of an OT loss – dominate but can’t finish. Some great saves by the opposition goalie keeping it from the blowout the game should be.
Need to grab a regulation goal.
Sens with an opportunity
Nuge will never score again…
I like that Carrick line. Three puckhounds who don’t quit on plays. They could be really useful wearing down the D. Won’t score much but won’t get outworked and will win most shifts.
Oilers just dominating this game.
Lets not let the tending to be the difference.
Find that winning goal.
Dominating the 3 rd but only 4 shots on net so far.
While I don’t blame Desharnais at all for that absolutely mind boggling call by the ref, the Oilers can’t be having the defensive breakdowns they’ve have the past few games, especially moving into the playoffs. It’s buckle down time and they need to be trying to emulate the play during the winning streaks, with improvement.
We need an exorcist to cast out the post demon living in Nuge’s stick.