Three Days at the Condor

by Lowetide

This is the Bakersfield Condors 2021-22 defense. As is often the case, several blue graduate to the show and the ones that do can move (Broberg), move the puck (Kesselring) or block out the sun (Desharnais). Jay Woodcroft took Broberg and Niemelainen with him when he flew north that year, Desharnais was 68-35 even-strength goal differential. Condors play tonight against San Diego Gulls, I’ll be updating and I’m sure others will, too. Join us, will you?

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theres oil in virginia

This blog has become like the castle in Krull. 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Damn I miss Michael Kesselring.

Taking a quick look, his 5 on 5 number this season are almost identical to Stecher’s. Within a minute of each other TOI/G – within a percent of both G% and xG% and both playing 26.4% of TOI vs. elites (although Kesselring is 12-16 goals and Stecher 10-3 goals vs. elties).

Scungilli Slushy

I’m not sure how you reconcile those GF numbers with anything else

Not even close

MK looks like a big NHL D but isn’t yet playing like a successful one yet

Munny 2.0

How much effect does a D truly have on GF numbers? Really?

northerndancer

Yippie! Lowetide is bask.

Sorry that things keep disappearing. It makes me feel like the world has rotated without me on it.

Let me say that I remember when the narrative was ‘can Nuge drive his own line’?. My take on things now is that we should be asking if Drai can’t drive his own line should he be paid 10 million dollars per year? I am liking Foegele with Drai as it seems the more Foggie plays with Drai the more confident he gets. And I even saw Drai look around at the blueline stack of the Winnipeg dudes, and then dump it in! Foggie went chasing and all was good. Great low risk play by Drai and a marked shift in his approach. There is There is hope.

godot10

Draisaitl can drive his own line. Oiler management and coaches refuse to let him by refusing to get him wingers, and panicking and going to McDrai all the time.

Oilers management did it again at the trade deadline wasting a 1st round pick on Henrique instead of getting Draisaitl a winger in Toffoli, who did NOT cost a 1st for Winnipeg.

Nugent-Hopkins McDavid Hyman
Foegele Draisaitl Toffoli
Kane McLeod Brown
Janmark Holloway Perry/Ryan

Hyman McDavid Toffoli
McLeod Draisaitl Foegele
Kane Nugent-Hopkins Brown
Janmark Holloway Perry/Ryan

Carrick probably could have been acquired for a depth pick.

jp

Toffoli, who did NOT cost a 1st for Winnipeg

A 2nd+3rd is in the same ball park as a 1st in terms of value.

Some sources have ‘2nd+3rd’ as higher value than ‘a 1st’ and others have ‘a 1st’ as higher so it’s not entirely clear wasted more.

hunter1909

Please. The 1st round you stand a very good chance to draft impact players. Post 2nd round the talent drops off markedly.

jp

A late 1st is not the same as an early 1st.

According to Schuckers analysis picks #57 and #89 have more value than pick #25 (https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf). Dom at the Athletic valued pick #25 higher than #55 and #85 (https://theathletic.com/1798463/2020/06/12/by-the-numbers-revisiting-the-true-value-of-a-draft-pick/).

It’s not clear cut.

jp

I was traveling and today and didn’t read LT’s original post. But I do find it odd how much talk there is of Draisaitl not being able to drive his own line.

By year:
19-20
McDavidAndDraisaitl 49%GF
McDavidNoDraisaitl 56%GF
DraisaitlNoMcDavid 57%GF

20-21
McDavidAndDraisaitl 66%GF
McDavidNoDraisaitl 50%GF
DraisaitlNoMcDavid 58%GF

21-22
McDavidAndDraisaitl 55%GF
McDavidNoDraisaitl 61%GF
DraisaitlNoMcDavid 54%GF

22-23
McDavidAndDraisaitl 57%GF
McDavidNoDraisaitl 53%GF
DraisaitlNoMcDavid 48%GF

23-24
McDavidAndDraisaitl 65%GF
McDavidNoDraisaitl 57%GF
DraisaitlNoMcDavid 56%GF

northerndancer

I was being a bit cute on the Drai not driving his own line. Just a reflection on how things change but stay the same as people clamour for a miracle 3rd line that does it all. And at wholesale prices.

OriginalPouzar

12-4 goals with McLeod and Foegele although one can legit ask if McLeod is a driver of the line (when looking at Foegele/Leon w/o McLeod results this season……).

godot10

Draisaitl points per game in the playoffs 1.75, the same as McDavid, up there with the best players of all time. Clearly McLeod is the driver.

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