Photo by Fawn Mitchell
The Toronto Blue Jays are showing the sports world (including chatterboxes like me) that staying the course after a year or several of disappointment can reap rewards. Believing in the vision adopted at the genesis of a new management or coaching team through difficult times can’t be easy. Fans get restless, the owner wants to throttle someone (imagine Daryl Katz the day he found out about the offer sheets to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway) and franchises start all over again.
The Pittsburgh Steelers change coaches once every 25 years or so, the Green Bay Packers draft and then develop their starting quarterbacks. Last winter, the Blue Jays were taking heavy criticism for just bringing it all back (with a couple of tweaks) but look at them today. They appear to be a team of destiny. It’s a wonderful story and should provide all of us who observe teams building toward a championship with pause. We don’t know what we don’t know.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) Actual 1-0-1
- Road: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1) Actual 2-3-0
- At home to: Montreal (1-0) Actual 1-0
- On the road to: Seattle, Vancouver (1-1) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Mammoth, Rangers (1-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- Actual Record: 5-4-2, 12 points in 11 games
I’m liking the lines now, especially the top two units that seem to have chem and clearly have loads of skills. The Mangiapane-McDavid-Nuge unit should be good for 100 goals, the Podkolzin-Draisiatl-Roslovic trio would need some luck to get that far but Leon normally chips in 50 and that’s a helluva start.
I’m hoping that Ekholm-Bouchard and Nurse-Walman can flourish this season, but think we should be prepared for Kulak-Walman or even Walman-Regula at some point this season.
Not sure of the goaltending situation, Stuart Skinner will get plenty of starts but he’s shown us what he is, I’m afraid. He might turn into Cam Talbot or Devan Dubnyk in another NHL city, but a Laurent Brossoit future may also await him. Stan Bowman has been patient, perhaps he sees something the save percentage doesn’t pick up on. We wait.
CONDORS
I don’t have time to do the charts today, had a late night and won’t be able to get to it this morning. Hope you understand.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation and we’ll tee up the NFL weekend and CFL playoffs. Noon to 2, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
How is Bobcaygeon getting thumbs up below re: Bouchard when I spent all last year getting heat for suggesting anything over 9 million was too much for a player that gives as much as he takes. “Wait till the playoffs, he’s HOF level then…”
But this team gifts goals and points to the opponent regularly because of Bouchard’s horrific defensive miscues. How many goals this season alone? There were two just last night. You want to keep 29 and 97 minutes down? Here’s a good place to start: Imagine how much more rested this team will be if it isn’t chasing Bouchard’s mistakes all over the schedule.
My position has been cast for too long as that of the knuckle-dragging normie, better for Oilersnation and Twitter than the erudite Lowtide blog. Major error. Bouchard’s impact is not entirely felt in the advanced stats: he’s more like a goalie that doesn’t have to be accountable like a goalie would be: not just the washed out and abstracted statistic but the timing and nature of the play matter. He is a deflating and near-Manchurian candidate-like figure….
Also Leon was way too lazy on the OT goal WTF.
This team has also trained me to not look at or care about the standings until Christmas. I’m sure there are some “Bouchard you frustrating and beautiful SOB!” goals to come.
Fans are waking up to what you’ve been saying, honestly I’m just stating the obvious, Bouchard isn’t getting better, his mistakes are repeating which is a horrible sign.
I’m having serious doubts this team makes the playoffs.
this roster reminds me of 2017-2018 Oilers….
a lot of nothing with a bunch of fillers….
Honestly, these are the only players on this roster that should be on the team,.
Draisaitl
McDavid
RNH
Hyman
Henrique
Roslovic
Mangiapane
Podkolzin
Walman
Ekholm
Kulak
Stan Bowman is Peter Chiarelli…
The Oilers (like every other team in the league) lives and dies by how their stars are playing. Right now Leon, McDavid and Bouchard are playing like it’s still preseason.
While I’m mad that these three never bring their A game at the start of the season, I’m also not worried that they will find it in time for the playoffs.
Mangiapane is getting crushed.
Through 12 games he has generated only 9 SOG and without a 33% shooting percentage (his career average is 14.6%) he would have only 1 goal and 1 assist.
His GF% is only 33.3, he has a plus/minus of -7 and a penalty differential of -4.
Not every player can turn into Rafferty
For ten years, there’s been an unending parade of talented (and not-so-talented) players put with Draisaitl and McDavid in hopes of finding magic. Doubt if it will ever happen.
The reason McDavid or Draisaitl will never compare to Gretzky, is that Gretzky made everybody on his team better. Everytime 97 or 29 is on the ice, everything is all about them. They know it. Their teammates know it. And the opposition knows it.
We’ve lost some really talented players over the years who just couldn’t gel with the glimmer twins. If 97 or 29 cannot learn to develop their own linemates instead of using them as props, this team will never win a damn thing.
It appears like Knoblauch is driving the lackadaisical bus.
Problem is KK is not even driving the bus. He’s closing his eyes and singing ‘McJesus take the wheel’
30+ year fan and 10+ year season ticket holder. Tonight’s game is excellent example of why this will be the last on both scores unless this organization can pull its head out of its ass. It is not a “talent problem” and hasn’t been for the last 3 or 4 seasons. It is an accountability problem. This isn’t basketball. You can’t win with 3 star players and no team culture.
I’m sick of 2 minute shifts. I’m sick of Harlem globe trotter hockey. I’m sick of no accountability for the star players. I’m sick of playing the glimmer twins together and too much (and now we add the PK, WTF!). I’m sick of Bouchard turnovers but mainly from the perspective of so little effort to try and recover (he deserves a good swift kick in the ass from Skinner tonight). While it may sound like I am blaming the players (and particularly the stars) I lay the blame squarely on the organization but not for the reasons (procurement) usually outlined. Perhaps a different time/generation and showing my age but if this team had a Glen Sather type it would have won multiple cups already. As anyone who has lead successful teams will attest. Accountability is a key foundation to a successful culture.
The OIlers organization will receive the same message tomorrow although I’m sure it will change nothing and the “don’t upset the stars” horseshit will continue. So be it. Life is to short to watch the insanity of the same mistakes over and over again thinking there will be a different result.
Be well. The sun will come up tomorrow.
Glen Sather’s named popped into my head tonight also. He would not have put up with this for one minute.
Can someone ask the coach a direct question about his lineup decisions and why he has Mcdavid and Drai playing 25 minutes a night in a compressed season where those two guys are also going to Olympics if healthy? What is his end game???
I gave it some time but I really don’t like Mangy on that McDavid line, at least not the way it is now. McDavid needs someone that can and will take it to the slot/net and Mangy just doesn’t do that. 9 shots in 12 games is unacceptable. Maybe he can be the third wheel to McHyman, but he’s probably the first guy I drop down the depth chart.
While I like him building on his success down the lineup, Howard may be coming on at just the right time to earn a real chance up there.
Howard McDavid Hyman
Pod Draisaitl Roslovic
Frederic Nuge Savoie
Mangy Henrique *alternate*
xGF% by forward tonight
Only forwards above 50%
At the bottom end?
This is how I saw it. And despite this they got the most icetime and Tomasek doing ZERO on the pp continues to get the prime icetime. Makes NO sense.
Bouchard is absolutely terrible defenseman, Oilers need to trade him within the first two years or his NMC kicks in.
This guy isn’t getting better he’s getting worse.
Bouchard has struggled at the beginning of every season in the NHL.
He was just as bad last October.
Bouchard will be fine as frustrating as it is that he can’t start a season on time.
No he won’t.
Skinner is a backup goalie. Full stop.
Not going to miss Bouchard when Bowman trades his ass or lets him walk in free agency. Waste of salary cap.
Expected goals for were 3.5-3.5 by game’s end.
He’s never been an above average goalie since his 1st year as starter, and he never will be.
He also wasn’t the reason we lost this game.
You could say Shesterkin saved a shit ton of chances, or that the top line didn’t produce anything, while the 2nd line didn’t finish their great chances. But he gave up more or less what we’d expect a starter to give up tonight.
If you are going to give major minutes to Bouchard and Nurse, you HAVE to have an above average goalie. That is if you aspire to Stanley. Otherwise, carry on.
If you have to pay both Nurse and Bouchard (and Leon and Connor), then you won’t have the cap space to pay goalie better than Skinner
Correct. Unforced procurement and retention errors of the magnitude that have been made mean bye-bye Stanley. Just so we are clear on expectations moving forward.
What message is the coach sending with his ice time choices right now?
1. Takes out one of the most reliable forwards on both ends of the ice (message: your performance doesn’t matter if you’re not one of the chosen ones)
2. Pp2 scored when they took the puck to net. Message sent when not putting them back out, and letting pp1 stay out the entire time almost every time… performance and doing the right thing doesn’t matter
3. Poor puck choices by 2 but continuing to get prime ice time. Sit him down.
4. Overplay McDavid and Drai despite them continuing to give puck away.
The coach has done what every other coach has done before their demise.. rely too heavily on the top 3 guys. It is a team game- hello lesson of the past two Stanley cup finals?!?!? The better TEAM won, not the best two players.
McDrai haven’t been the best two players on the ice very much this season…
Therein lies a problem. They’re not winning the majority of all that ice time given
Very sloppy, casual with the puck. Threw it around with impunity and hung the goalie out to dry.
#thereturnofdisinterestedhockey
McDavid needs a Hyman on his line, last month.
11-7 will go away when Zach gets back
Hopefully it goes by the weekend, but one would think it goes next week because the back-to-backs return.
Really well played first two periods. After that … Oil get Skinnered and Bouche bagged.
Much prefer watching the Jays right now. This team with how it is being coached is hard to watch.
I’m no mathematician, but I counted Bouchard being directly responsible for 3 goals against. He needs to sit.
Bouchard can lose you a lot of games.
Too be so good and so bad? It’s ridiculous, really ridiculous.
Bouchard’s “upside” is his point production. How many of those points come from basically being on the ice and benefitting from Draisaitl and McDavid’s brilliance? Adding up his “also in the picture” points and his lazy screwups . . . is he worth keeping?
No … no he is not.
Nurse and Bouch taking turns going from star to crapmeister. game to game. Be nice if they both showed up and played well in same game. Lack of consistency killing this team.
This loss is on McDavid and his line for losing the 5v5 battle in regulation.
Once again no finish
Also no baxkcheck
Ditch 11/7 and change the ice time.allocation coach. Everyone but KK seeing the problem!
That may have been one of the worst games I’ve seen Leon play. The only Oiler with a worse game was Bouchard.
Brutal defending by 2 + 29 on OT goal by Miller. Holy frack!
No urgency. No urgency on the PP and no urgency in cutting off Miller.
Missed opportunity tonight
WTF was Bouchard doing?
Giving 2 points away. 29 lazy play put him in a bad spot, but 2 decided to not defend a clear lane to the net. He clesrly has a lack of commitment to defending. Like its not part of his role
Is coach gonna coach?
Shoot high Podz!
Wow. Way to piss that one away.
Just let Miller walk in uncontested.
At least they got a Bettman out of it
Miller knows he can walk over the Oilers.
Oilers thought the game was over after 40 minutes
.
Draisaitl with a horrible game all around
His line was a +2 and the only reason they were in the game
Draisaitl was awful tonight
Did they hit the net once?
4 min seems to have become discretionary based on what exactly?
It’s not like blood is an objective measure or anything 😏
I suspect it’s whether the game manager deems it accidental contact.
Isn’t most contact with a high sti k accidental?!
They better finish this off in OT
Mcdavid not looking McJesus like tonight. OT winner maybe?
Hasn’t looked that way all season. And much of last.
It’d be nice to finish this in regulation with a late PP goal
This 3rd period has been unpleasant
Why only 2 min?!
I’d start a different PP1 but not holding out hope this coach will do it.
You could see in the first 3 minutes of this period that they did not come out prepared to close things out. Very predictable what’s happened.
Leon and Bouch have been gifting the Rangers chances all game
Also time to end the 11/7. I’m not sure what the thinking is with this approach? And to continue to sit Philp?? Going to be another lost player who has done nothing to deserve the press box.
Shoot high!
Weak attempt from Roslovic.
KK not holding top players accountable at all.
I’m sure he’ll find a way to punish Philp for the top players lackadaisical play.
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
Can we just end the Bouchard / Skinner experiment?
Skinner might as well be 5’4″ the way he plays. Don’t use that giant body.
That was a clean look from prime scoring position for the Rangers player
Yep between the pad and glove. How about putting that big body in front of the puck?
Shesterkin let in a similar goal
Raddysh isn’t exactly a sniper.
Raddysh’s scouting reports have always indicated that he has the shot and offensive skills, but his skating and consistency have been holding him back. And, he is on a bit of a heater… 5 G this season on 27.8% shooting.
It was our shite powerplay that changed the momentum
Yep – Leon was getting to cute on the PP with his backhand pass.
Bouch with another turnover
Just brutal.
lopsided period. Lots of watching by the Oiler.
2 assists tonight for the NYR
Bouchard with a horrific play. One thing to try to create offense but gives it away then stands still.. so frustrating.
Thats the thing. You can make a mistake, but bust your ass to make up for it. Stands around waiting for someone else to look after the mess
Walman with the poor pinch and then dogged it back.
‘Tis true.
Nuge was also more interested in puck-watching than marking Schneider.
As was 97. Common occurrence for Oiler Forwards. Just a stick length away gliding and hoping
For a coach that changes lines to the degree he does, he sure doesn’t like to make changes to the top powerplay? Ice time is a huge issue.. must be earned and needs to be spread beyond your top two guys who are certainly not demonstrating that the additional ice time is benefitting their game.
Top powerplay once again terrible this game. More dangerous for the other team than our own.
Leon has been handling the puck like a hand grenade in this game. He needs to simplify and just shoot the puck on net instead of constantly going to his backhand pass .
Is Darnell trying to play himself off of D and onto the Fs?